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000
FXUS64 KSJT 222126
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

An active weather pattern is in store for the next 24 hours. A cold
front is moving through the area today, and will be through all of
West Central Texas by this evening. An upper level trough currently
across the Plains will strengthen and send a short wave trough
across West Central Texas late this evening/early Tuesday morning.
This is indicated by most of the high resolution models, with
showers developing across the Big Country late this evening, then
moving across at least the northern two thirds of the area during
the early morning hours. The likely PoPs were expanded south into
the northern Concho Valley and Heartland, with chance PoPs down to
the Interstate 10 corridor.

Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s
across all of West Central Texas. As the midnight shift mentioned in
the previous discussion, temperatures from the surface to about 2500
or 3000 feet will be above freezing, so mainly rain is expected. A
brief change over to a mix of rain/snow will be possible across
parts of the Concho Valley/Big Country, but confidence remains low,
so all rain was continued in the forecast. Even if we did see a few
snow flakes, no accumulation is expected.

Our next chance of precipitation will be Tuesday morning, as the
main upper level trough axis swings across the region. High
resolution models continue to indicate an area of light to moderate
rainfall developing across the Big Country and then swinging across
the Concho Valley and Heartland Tuesday morning. Rain chances will
decrease from northwest to southeast during the afternoon, with most
precipitation east of the area by sunset. Rainfall accumulations
through the next 24 hours will likely be less than one quarter inch,
with isolated amounts of up to one half inch possible.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

As the trough continues to migrate east across the CONUS, northerly
winds will persist and keep West Central Texas near normal
Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs to be in the low 50s with
overnight lows near freezing.

Expect Christmas Day to be warm and breezy as moderate ridging will
quickly give way to lee cyclogenesis. This will induce southwest
winds causing warmer, drier air, leading to afternoon high
temperatures mainly in the 60s. Winds are expected to reach speeds
between 20-25 mph in response to a strengthening surface level
pressure gradient.

Forecast models have slowed the trough and, consequently, the
passage of the cold front by about a day. The EC model brings the
northerly wind shift and cold air advection across the area late
Friday evening/Saturday morning. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in
the upper 20s and lower 30s. The EC has decent precipitation across
portions of West Central Texas and moisture return flow looks
adequate for precipitation. Thus, added slight chance pops on
Saturday to accompany the passage of the cold front. There is an
outside chance for some frozen precipitation across the Big Country,
however, kept liquid precip only at this time.

Finally, early next week some isentropic lift will bring a slight
chance of precipitation, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country
and Heartland. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normal
and therefore no frozen precipitation is anticipated.

JMD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  48  33  50  32 /  70  50   0   0   0
San Angelo  39  49  33  52  30 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  41  51  32  54  28 /  20  40   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 222126
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

An active weather pattern is in store for the next 24 hours. A cold
front is moving through the area today, and will be through all of
West Central Texas by this evening. An upper level trough currently
across the Plains will strengthen and send a short wave trough
across West Central Texas late this evening/early Tuesday morning.
This is indicated by most of the high resolution models, with
showers developing across the Big Country late this evening, then
moving across at least the northern two thirds of the area during
the early morning hours. The likely PoPs were expanded south into
the northern Concho Valley and Heartland, with chance PoPs down to
the Interstate 10 corridor.

Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s
across all of West Central Texas. As the midnight shift mentioned in
the previous discussion, temperatures from the surface to about 2500
or 3000 feet will be above freezing, so mainly rain is expected. A
brief change over to a mix of rain/snow will be possible across
parts of the Concho Valley/Big Country, but confidence remains low,
so all rain was continued in the forecast. Even if we did see a few
snow flakes, no accumulation is expected.

Our next chance of precipitation will be Tuesday morning, as the
main upper level trough axis swings across the region. High
resolution models continue to indicate an area of light to moderate
rainfall developing across the Big Country and then swinging across
the Concho Valley and Heartland Tuesday morning. Rain chances will
decrease from northwest to southeast during the afternoon, with most
precipitation east of the area by sunset. Rainfall accumulations
through the next 24 hours will likely be less than one quarter inch,
with isolated amounts of up to one half inch possible.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

As the trough continues to migrate east across the CONUS, northerly
winds will persist and keep West Central Texas near normal
Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs to be in the low 50s with
overnight lows near freezing.

Expect Christmas Day to be warm and breezy as moderate ridging will
quickly give way to lee cyclogenesis. This will induce southwest
winds causing warmer, drier air, leading to afternoon high
temperatures mainly in the 60s. Winds are expected to reach speeds
between 20-25 mph in response to a strengthening surface level
pressure gradient.

Forecast models have slowed the trough and, consequently, the
passage of the cold front by about a day. The EC model brings the
northerly wind shift and cold air advection across the area late
Friday evening/Saturday morning. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in
the upper 20s and lower 30s. The EC has decent precipitation across
portions of West Central Texas and moisture return flow looks
adequate for precipitation. Thus, added slight chance pops on
Saturday to accompany the passage of the cold front. There is an
outside chance for some frozen precipitation across the Big Country,
however, kept liquid precip only at this time.

Finally, early next week some isentropic lift will bring a slight
chance of precipitation, mainly across the Northwest Hill Country
and Heartland. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal normal
and therefore no frozen precipitation is anticipated.

JMD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  48  33  50  32 /  70  50   0   0   0
San Angelo  39  49  33  52  30 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  41  51  32  54  28 /  20  40   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 221701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A cold front will move through the area today, with winds becoming
north to northwest at 8 to 12 knots. An upper level disturbance will
result in showers after midnight, first at the northern sites, then
spreading south through the morning hours Tuesday. The possibility
exists that some showers will develop late this evening, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF package.
MVFR ceilings will develop first at KABI around 10z, then spread
south to the Interstate corridor around 15z. The MVFR ceilings and
shower activity are forecast to persist through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Main impacts this morning are LIFR CIGs at KSOA...and IFR CIGs at
KJCT. These CIGs should improve to VFR from 15Z to 17Z as dry west
winds surge into the area this morning. Winds will gradually increase
from the Northwest at 12G20Kts through noon today. There is a chance
for light rain after 06z tonight as a strong upper level
disturbance and reinforcing cold front moves into the area. CIGs
tonight should stay remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Mostly sunny today with slightly elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as a weak front moves into the area. Then a
chance for light rain tonight as a strong upper level disturbance
interacts with another much stronger cold front. See fire weather
discussion below.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level jet (ULJ) max of 110Kts at 300
millibars, diving southeast across the Intermountain West today,
will carve out a deep upper level trough across the Southern
Plains and West Central Texas tonight. This places WC TX in the
favored left exit region of the ULJ max. As the 110 KT upper
level jet max/upper trough interacts with another stronger
reinforcing surface cold front, this interaction should result in
strong frontogenetic lift tonight across the area, resulting in
the development of light rain. Models do differ on the placement
and timing of the light rain. Blended the different model
solutions by going with a gradient of higher PoPs north and lower
PoPs south.

As the atmosphere undergoes rapid cooling and saturation aloft
towards 12z/6AM Tuesday, this could result in an atmospheric profile
that could support snow in the higher elevations northwest of a
line from Buffalo Gap to Sterling City by 12z. However, no snow
was mentioned since most of it should melt as temperatures remain
above freezing. For more details on the snow please read the
longer term discussion below.

26

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A potent mid-latitude trough will be moving slowly across the
Plains over the next few days. By Tuesday morning, the center of
this cyclone is progged to be in the vicinity of IA, with a strong
shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the trough. A cold
front will be making its way south across West Central TX early
Tuesday, providing a focus for low-level lift. Analysis of cross-
section data indicates a strong ribbon of frontogenesis
along/behind the surface cold front, juxtaposed with a swath of
negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), indicating elevated
instability. This forcing for ascent, coupled with additional lift
associated with the left exit region of the approaching upper
tropospheric jet streak, will provide a decent chance for
measurable precip across the area through early Tuesday afternoon.

While the usual question is "How much rain will we get?", the more
interesting question is "Will all of this precipitation fall as
rain?". Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 40 degrees
early Tuesday morning, with point soundings indicating at least
3000 ft of above freezing temperatures in the surface layer. This
layer is also dry, however, and diabatic cooling via wet-bulb
processes could lower surface temps sufficiently to see a little
snow mixed in with this rain. This remains a low probability event
and with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, impacts will
be nil. The best opportunity for any snow flakes would likely be
in the higher terrain of the Big Country or western Concho Valley
(primarily along Callahan Divide). As stated, no accumulations are
anticipated and given the low probability, snow will not be
mentioned at this time. We`ll certainly be watching how this
system evolves. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees.

Precip will end from west to east on Tuesday, giving way to a
subsident regime in the wake of the departing trough. We`ll see
clear skies and dry weather for Christmas Eve travel plans.
Continued cold advection via northwest winds will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures Wednesday night
are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s as winds decrease and
back to the west. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Christmas
Day as southwesterly low-level winds increase in response to rapid
lee cyclogenesis. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph and
will result in much warmer temps aloft. Temperatures at 850 mb are
progged to range from 11-14C by Thursday afternoon, which would
support max temperatures well into the 60s. Temps were bumped up a
few degrees from the previous forecast and now range from the mid
to upper 60s.

Medium range forecast models continued to show another trough
moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday.
This will drive another cold front south across West Central TX,
but moisture return is currently expected to be insufficient to
support rain chances. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
50s with overnight lows down near 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
This may provide San Angelo with its first freeze of December
2014. Cool temperatures are expected again on Saturday in the wake
of this cold front with dry weather continuing into the weekend.

Johnson

FIRE WEATHER...
A surface trough over the region will slide east this morning and
will be followed by a weak cold front shifting the southwest
winds to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph today. The combination of
low afternoon relative humidities, mild temperatures and a
moderate breeze could result in a slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across West Central
Texas on Thursday/Christmas Day as a strong surface trough results
in southwest winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  41  49  33  52 /   5  50  30   0   0
San Angelo  71  41  50  33  54 /   5  30  30   5   0
Junction  72  43  52  32  54 /   0  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A cold front will move through the area today, with winds becoming
north to northwest at 8 to 12 knots. An upper level disturbance will
result in showers after midnight, first at the northern sites, then
spreading south through the morning hours Tuesday. The possibility
exists that some showers will develop late this evening, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF package.
MVFR ceilings will develop first at KABI around 10z, then spread
south to the Interstate corridor around 15z. The MVFR ceilings and
shower activity are forecast to persist through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Main impacts this morning are LIFR CIGs at KSOA...and IFR CIGs at
KJCT. These CIGs should improve to VFR from 15Z to 17Z as dry west
winds surge into the area this morning. Winds will gradually increase
from the Northwest at 12G20Kts through noon today. There is a chance
for light rain after 06z tonight as a strong upper level
disturbance and reinforcing cold front moves into the area. CIGs
tonight should stay remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Mostly sunny today with slightly elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as a weak front moves into the area. Then a
chance for light rain tonight as a strong upper level disturbance
interacts with another much stronger cold front. See fire weather
discussion below.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level jet (ULJ) max of 110Kts at 300
millibars, diving southeast across the Intermountain West today,
will carve out a deep upper level trough across the Southern
Plains and West Central Texas tonight. This places WC TX in the
favored left exit region of the ULJ max. As the 110 KT upper
level jet max/upper trough interacts with another stronger
reinforcing surface cold front, this interaction should result in
strong frontogenetic lift tonight across the area, resulting in
the development of light rain. Models do differ on the placement
and timing of the light rain. Blended the different model
solutions by going with a gradient of higher PoPs north and lower
PoPs south.

As the atmosphere undergoes rapid cooling and saturation aloft
towards 12z/6AM Tuesday, this could result in an atmospheric profile
that could support snow in the higher elevations northwest of a
line from Buffalo Gap to Sterling City by 12z. However, no snow
was mentioned since most of it should melt as temperatures remain
above freezing. For more details on the snow please read the
longer term discussion below.

26

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A potent mid-latitude trough will be moving slowly across the
Plains over the next few days. By Tuesday morning, the center of
this cyclone is progged to be in the vicinity of IA, with a strong
shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the trough. A cold
front will be making its way south across West Central TX early
Tuesday, providing a focus for low-level lift. Analysis of cross-
section data indicates a strong ribbon of frontogenesis
along/behind the surface cold front, juxtaposed with a swath of
negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), indicating elevated
instability. This forcing for ascent, coupled with additional lift
associated with the left exit region of the approaching upper
tropospheric jet streak, will provide a decent chance for
measurable precip across the area through early Tuesday afternoon.

While the usual question is "How much rain will we get?", the more
interesting question is "Will all of this precipitation fall as
rain?". Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 40 degrees
early Tuesday morning, with point soundings indicating at least
3000 ft of above freezing temperatures in the surface layer. This
layer is also dry, however, and diabatic cooling via wet-bulb
processes could lower surface temps sufficiently to see a little
snow mixed in with this rain. This remains a low probability event
and with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, impacts will
be nil. The best opportunity for any snow flakes would likely be
in the higher terrain of the Big Country or western Concho Valley
(primarily along Callahan Divide). As stated, no accumulations are
anticipated and given the low probability, snow will not be
mentioned at this time. We`ll certainly be watching how this
system evolves. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees.

Precip will end from west to east on Tuesday, giving way to a
subsident regime in the wake of the departing trough. We`ll see
clear skies and dry weather for Christmas Eve travel plans.
Continued cold advection via northwest winds will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures Wednesday night
are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s as winds decrease and
back to the west. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Christmas
Day as southwesterly low-level winds increase in response to rapid
lee cyclogenesis. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph and
will result in much warmer temps aloft. Temperatures at 850 mb are
progged to range from 11-14C by Thursday afternoon, which would
support max temperatures well into the 60s. Temps were bumped up a
few degrees from the previous forecast and now range from the mid
to upper 60s.

Medium range forecast models continued to show another trough
moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday.
This will drive another cold front south across West Central TX,
but moisture return is currently expected to be insufficient to
support rain chances. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
50s with overnight lows down near 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
This may provide San Angelo with its first freeze of December
2014. Cool temperatures are expected again on Saturday in the wake
of this cold front with dry weather continuing into the weekend.

Johnson

FIRE WEATHER...
A surface trough over the region will slide east this morning and
will be followed by a weak cold front shifting the southwest
winds to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph today. The combination of
low afternoon relative humidities, mild temperatures and a
moderate breeze could result in a slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across West Central
Texas on Thursday/Christmas Day as a strong surface trough results
in southwest winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  41  49  33  52 /   5  50  30   0   0
San Angelo  71  41  50  33  54 /   5  30  30   5   0
Junction  72  43  52  32  54 /   0  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221200
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Main impacts this morning are LIFR CIGs at KSOA...and IFR CIGs at
KJCT. These CIGs should improve to VFR from 15Z to 17Z as dry west
winds surge into the area this morning. Winds will gradually increase
from the Northwest at 12G20Kts through noon today. There is a chance
for light rain after 06z tonight as a strong upper level
disturbance and reinforcing cold front moves into the area. CIGs
tonight should stay remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Mostly sunny today with slightly elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as a weak front moves into the area. Then a
chance for light rain tonight as a strong upper level disturbance
interacts with another much stronger cold front. See fire weather
discussion below.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level jet (ULJ) max of 110Kts at 300
millibars, diving southeast across the Intermountain West today,
will carve out a deep upper level trough across the Southern
Plains and West Central Texas tonight. This places WC TX in the
favored left exit region of the ULJ max. As the 110 KT upper
level jet max/upper trough interacts with another stronger
reinforcing surface cold front, this interaction should result in
strong frontogenetic lift tonight across the area, resulting in
the development of light rain. Models do differ on the placement
and timing of the light rain. Blended the different model
solutions by going with a gradient of higher PoPs north and lower
PoPs south.

As the atmosphere undergoes rapid cooling and saturation aloft
towards 12z/6AM Tuesday, this could result in an atmospheric profile
that could support snow in the higher elevations northwest of a
line from Buffalo Gap to Sterling City by 12z. However, no snow
was mentioned since most of it should melt as temperatures remain
above freezing. For more details on the snow please read the
longer term discussion below.

26

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A potent mid-latitude trough will be moving slowly across the
Plains over the next few days. By Tuesday morning, the center of
this cyclone is progged to be in the vicinity of IA, with a strong
shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the trough. A cold
front will be making its way south across West Central TX early
Tuesday, providing a focus for low-level lift. Analysis of cross-
section data indicates a strong ribbon of frontogenesis
along/behind the surface cold front, juxtaposed with a swath of
negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), indicating elevated
instability. This forcing for ascent, coupled with additional lift
associated with the left exit region of the approaching upper
tropospheric jet streak, will provide a decent chance for
measurable precip across the area through early Tuesday afternoon.

While the usual question is "How much rain will we get?", the more
interesting question is "Will all of this precipitation fall as
rain?". Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 40 degrees
early Tuesday morning, with point soundings indicating at least
3000 ft of above freezing temperatures in the surface layer. This
layer is also dry, however, and diabatic cooling via wet-bulb
processes could lower surface temps sufficiently to see a little
snow mixed in with this rain. This remains a low probability event
and with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, impacts will
be nil. The best opportunity for any snow flakes would likely be
in the higher terrain of the Big Country or western Concho Valley
(primarily along Callahan Divide). As stated, no accumulations are
anticipated and given the low probability, snow will not be
mentioned at this time. We`ll certainly be watching how this
system evolves. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees.

Precip will end from west to east on Tuesday, giving way to a
subsident regime in the wake of the departing trough. We`ll see
clear skies and dry weather for Christmas Eve travel plans.
Continued cold advection via northwest winds will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures Wednesday night
are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s as winds decrease and
back to the west. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Christmas
Day as southwesterly low-level winds increase in response to rapid
lee cyclogenesis. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph and
will result in much warmer temps aloft. Temperatures at 850 mb are
progged to range from 11-14C by Thursday afternoon, which would
support max temperatures well into the 60s. Temps were bumped up a
few degrees from the previous forecast and now range from the mid
to upper 60s.

Medium range forecast models continued to show another trough
moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday.
This will drive another cold front south across West Central TX,
but moisture return is currently expected to be insufficient to
support rain chances. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
50s with overnight lows down near 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
This may provide San Angelo with its first freeze of December
2014. Cool temperatures are expected again on Saturday in the wake
of this cold front with dry weather continuing into the weekend.

Johnson

FIRE WEATHER...
A surface trough over the region will slide east this morning and
will be followed by a weak cold front shifting the southwest
winds to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph today. The combination of
low afternoon relative humidities, mild temperatures and a
moderate breeze could result in a slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across West Central
Texas on Thursday/Christmas Day as a strong surface trough results
in southwest winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  41  49  33  52 /   5  50  30   0   0
San Angelo  71  41  50  33  54 /   5  30  30   5   0
Junction  72  43  52  32  54 /   0  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221002
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Mostly sunny today with slightly elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as a weak front moves into the area. Then a
chance for light rain tonight as a strong upper level disturbance
interacts with another much stronger cold front. See fire weather
discussion below.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level jet (ULJ) max of 110Kts at 300
millibars, diving southeast across the Intermountain West today,
will carve out a deep upper level trough across the Southern
Plains and West Central Texas tonight. This places WC TX in the
favored left exit region of the ULJ max. As the 110 KT upper
level jet max/upper trough interacts with another stronger
reinforcing surface cold front, this interaction should result in
strong frontogenetic lift tonight across the area, resulting in
the development of light rain. Models do differ on the placement
and timing of the light rain. Blended the different model
solutions by going with a gradient of higher PoPs north and lower
PoPs south.

As the atmosphere undergoes rapid cooling and saturation aloft
towards 12z/6AM Tuesday, this could result in an atmospheric profile
that could support snow in the higher elevations northwest of a
line from Buffalo Gap to Sterling City by 12z. However, no snow
was mentioned since most of it should melt as temperatures remain
above freezing. For more details on the snow please read the
longer term discussion below.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A potent mid-latitude trough will be moving slowly across the
Plains over the next few days. By Tuesday morning, the center of
this cyclone is progged to be in the vicinity of IA, with a strong
shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the trough. A cold
front will be making its way south across West Central TX early
Tuesday, providing a focus for low-level lift. Analysis of cross-
section data indicates a strong ribbon of frontogenesis
along/behind the surface cold front, juxtaposed with a swath of
negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), indicating elevated
instability. This forcing for ascent, coupled with additional lift
associated with the left exit region of the approaching upper
tropospheric jet streak, will provide a decent chance for
measurable precip across the area through early Tuesday afternoon.

While the usual question is "How much rain will we get?", the more
interesting question is "Will all of this precipitation fall as
rain?". Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 40 degrees
early Tuesday morning, with point soundings indicating at least
3000 ft of above freezing temperatures in the surface layer. This
layer is also dry, however, and diabatic cooling via wet-bulb
processes could lower surface temps sufficiently to see a little
snow mixed in with this rain. This remains a low probability event
and with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, impacts will
be nil. The best opportunity for any snow flakes would likely be
in the higher terrain of the Big Country or western Concho Valley
(primarily along Callahan Divide). As stated, no accumulations are
anticipated and given the low probability, snow will not be
mentioned at this time. We`ll certainly be watching how this
system evolves. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees.

Precip will end from west to east on Tuesday, giving way to a
subsident regime in the wake of the departing trough. We`ll see
clear skies and dry weather for Christmas Eve travel plans.
Continued cold advection via northwest winds will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures Wednesday night
are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s as winds decrease and
back to the west. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Christmas
Day as southwesterly low-level winds increase in response to rapid
lee cyclogenesis. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph and
will result in much warmer temps aloft. Temperatures at 850 mb are
progged to range from 11-14C by Thursday afternoon, which would
support max temperatures well into the 60s. Temps were bumped up a
few degrees from the previous forecast and now range from the mid
to upper 60s.

Medium range forecast models continued to show another trough
moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday.
This will drive another cold front south across West Central TX,
but moisture return is currently expected to be insufficient to
support rain chances. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
50s with overnight lows down near 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
This may provide San Angelo with its first freeze of December
2014. Cool temperatures are expected again on Saturday in the wake
of this cold front with dry weather continuing into the weekend.

Johnson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A surface trough over the region will slide east this morning and
will be followed by a weak cold front shifting the southwest
winds to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph today. The combination of
low afternoon relative humidities, mild temperatures and a
moderate breeze could result in a slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across West Central
Texas on Thursday/Christmas Day as a strong surface trough results
in southwest winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  41  49  33  52 /   5  50  30   0   0
San Angelo  71  41  50  33  54 /   5  30  30   5   0
Junction  72  43  52  32  54 /   0  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Short-term...26
Long-term...25
Fire Weather...26





000
FXUS64 KSJT 221002
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Mostly sunny today with slightly elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as a weak front moves into the area. Then a
chance for light rain tonight as a strong upper level disturbance
interacts with another much stronger cold front. See fire weather
discussion below.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level jet (ULJ) max of 110Kts at 300
millibars, diving southeast across the Intermountain West today,
will carve out a deep upper level trough across the Southern
Plains and West Central Texas tonight. This places WC TX in the
favored left exit region of the ULJ max. As the 110 KT upper
level jet max/upper trough interacts with another stronger
reinforcing surface cold front, this interaction should result in
strong frontogenetic lift tonight across the area, resulting in
the development of light rain. Models do differ on the placement
and timing of the light rain. Blended the different model
solutions by going with a gradient of higher PoPs north and lower
PoPs south.

As the atmosphere undergoes rapid cooling and saturation aloft
towards 12z/6AM Tuesday, this could result in an atmospheric profile
that could support snow in the higher elevations northwest of a
line from Buffalo Gap to Sterling City by 12z. However, no snow
was mentioned since most of it should melt as temperatures remain
above freezing. For more details on the snow please read the
longer term discussion below.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A potent mid-latitude trough will be moving slowly across the
Plains over the next few days. By Tuesday morning, the center of
this cyclone is progged to be in the vicinity of IA, with a strong
shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the trough. A cold
front will be making its way south across West Central TX early
Tuesday, providing a focus for low-level lift. Analysis of cross-
section data indicates a strong ribbon of frontogenesis
along/behind the surface cold front, juxtaposed with a swath of
negative equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), indicating elevated
instability. This forcing for ascent, coupled with additional lift
associated with the left exit region of the approaching upper
tropospheric jet streak, will provide a decent chance for
measurable precip across the area through early Tuesday afternoon.

While the usual question is "How much rain will we get?", the more
interesting question is "Will all of this precipitation fall as
rain?". Surface temperatures are forecast to be around 40 degrees
early Tuesday morning, with point soundings indicating at least
3000 ft of above freezing temperatures in the surface layer. This
layer is also dry, however, and diabatic cooling via wet-bulb
processes could lower surface temps sufficiently to see a little
snow mixed in with this rain. This remains a low probability event
and with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s, impacts will
be nil. The best opportunity for any snow flakes would likely be
in the higher terrain of the Big Country or western Concho Valley
(primarily along Callahan Divide). As stated, no accumulations are
anticipated and given the low probability, snow will not be
mentioned at this time. We`ll certainly be watching how this
system evolves. High temperatures will be around 50 degrees.

Precip will end from west to east on Tuesday, giving way to a
subsident regime in the wake of the departing trough. We`ll see
clear skies and dry weather for Christmas Eve travel plans.
Continued cold advection via northwest winds will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures Wednesday night
are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s as winds decrease and
back to the west. Temperatures will rebound nicely for Christmas
Day as southwesterly low-level winds increase in response to rapid
lee cyclogenesis. Southwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph and
will result in much warmer temps aloft. Temperatures at 850 mb are
progged to range from 11-14C by Thursday afternoon, which would
support max temperatures well into the 60s. Temps were bumped up a
few degrees from the previous forecast and now range from the mid
to upper 60s.

Medium range forecast models continued to show another trough
moving across the southern Rockies Thursday night into Friday.
This will drive another cold front south across West Central TX,
but moisture return is currently expected to be insufficient to
support rain chances. Highs on Friday should fall back into the
50s with overnight lows down near 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
This may provide San Angelo with its first freeze of December
2014. Cool temperatures are expected again on Saturday in the wake
of this cold front with dry weather continuing into the weekend.

Johnson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A surface trough over the region will slide east this morning and
will be followed by a weak cold front shifting the southwest
winds to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph today. The combination of
low afternoon relative humidities, mild temperatures and a
moderate breeze could result in a slightly elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across West Central
Texas on Thursday/Christmas Day as a strong surface trough results
in southwest winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  41  49  33  52 /   5  50  30   0   0
San Angelo  71  41  50  33  54 /   5  30  30   5   0
Junction  72  43  52  32  54 /   0  20  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Short-term...26
Long-term...25
Fire Weather...26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 220523
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR stratus was spreading northward to San Angelo and
Brady at 05Z. San Angelo will be on the western edge of the
stratus overnight, which should move north to areas east of
Abilene. A Pacific front with dry southwest winds will otherwise
sweep the stratus eastward during the morning with all TAF sites
becoming VFR. With winds at 10 KTS or greater, potential for dense
fog is limited overnight, although a few areas could see 4 to 5
miles as temperatures fall near dew points.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus should spread back north along the I-10 corridor
this evening, reaching San Angelo and Brady towards midnight.
A strengthening lee trough with southwest will will keep low level
moisture shallow, and ceiling should scatter out to VFR before
sunrise at KSJT and mid morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD.

Westerly winds with gusts to 20 KTS early and mid morning
(and shifting the northwest by noon) may bring cross wind
problems on south to north runways for general aviation at KSJT
and KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.

14

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.

Doll

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 212347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus should spread back north along the I-10 corridor
this evening, reaching San Angelo and Brady towards midnight.
A strengthening lee trough with southwest will will keep low level
moisture shallow, and ceiling should scatter out to VFR before
sunrise at KSJT and mid morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD.

Westerly winds with gusts to 20 KTS early and mid morning
(and shifting the northwest by noon) may bring cross wind
problems on south to north runways for general aviation at KSJT
and KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.

14

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.

Doll

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus should spread back north along the I-10 corridor
this evening, reaching San Angelo and Brady towards midnight.
A strengthening lee trough with southwest will will keep low level
moisture shallow, and ceiling should scatter out to VFR before
sunrise at KSJT and mid morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD.

Westerly winds with gusts to 20 KTS early and mid morning
(and shifting the northwest by noon) may bring cross wind
problems on south to north runways for general aviation at KSJT
and KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.

14

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.

Doll

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 212130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.

14

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.

Doll

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.

14

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.

Doll

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 211700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at all sites late this
morning. Clouds are expected to slowly clear from west to east, with
most sites becoming VFR by 20z. Southwest winds of 10 to 16 knots,
with higher gusts, are expected today. Stratus is once again
forecast to develop after midnight, affecting mainly KSOA, KBBD and
KJCT. More uncertainty remains at the other two sites, so VFR
ceilings were continued at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Main impacts today are IFR to MVFR Cigs and gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon of 15 to 20KTS. Patchy MVFR Fog will
impact some terminals, too. KSOA had IFR CIG with MVFR VIS at 12Z
while the remaining sites had MVFR CIGs. Expect mostly MVFR at
most TAF sites except KSOA. However, IFR Cigs could develop
temporarily between 12Z and 13Z across remaining TAF sites. VFR
Cigs are expected to develop after 19z at most TAF sites by 19Z as
drier air filters into the area from the west.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at all sites late this
morning. Clouds are expected to slowly clear from west to east, with
most sites becoming VFR by 20z. Southwest winds of 10 to 16 knots,
with higher gusts, are expected today. Stratus is once again
forecast to develop after midnight, affecting mainly KSOA, KBBD and
KJCT. More uncertainty remains at the other two sites, so VFR
ceilings were continued at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Main impacts today are IFR to MVFR Cigs and gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon of 15 to 20KTS. Patchy MVFR Fog will
impact some terminals, too. KSOA had IFR CIG with MVFR VIS at 12Z
while the remaining sites had MVFR CIGs. Expect mostly MVFR at
most TAF sites except KSOA. However, IFR Cigs could develop
temporarily between 12Z and 13Z across remaining TAF sites. VFR
Cigs are expected to develop after 19z at most TAF sites by 19Z as
drier air filters into the area from the west.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211153
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
553 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Main impacts today are IFR to MVFR Cigs and gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon of 15 to 20KTS. Patchy MVFR Fog will
impact some terminals, too. KSOA had IFR CIG with MVFR VIS at 12Z
while the remaining sites had MVFR CIGs. Expect mostly MVFR at
most TAF sites except KSOA. However, IFR Cigs could develop
temporarily between 12Z and 13Z across remaining TAF sites. VFR
Cigs are expected to develop after 19z at most TAF sites by 19Z as
drier air filters into the area from the west.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211153
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
553 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Main impacts today are IFR to MVFR Cigs and gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon of 15 to 20KTS. Patchy MVFR Fog will
impact some terminals, too. KSOA had IFR CIG with MVFR VIS at 12Z
while the remaining sites had MVFR CIGs. Expect mostly MVFR at
most TAF sites except KSOA. However, IFR Cigs could develop
temporarily between 12Z and 13Z across remaining TAF sites. VFR
Cigs are expected to develop after 19z at most TAF sites by 19Z as
drier air filters into the area from the west.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211153
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
553 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Main impacts today are IFR to MVFR Cigs and gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon of 15 to 20KTS. Patchy MVFR Fog will
impact some terminals, too. KSOA had IFR CIG with MVFR VIS at 12Z
while the remaining sites had MVFR CIGs. Expect mostly MVFR at
most TAF sites except KSOA. However, IFR Cigs could develop
temporarily between 12Z and 13Z across remaining TAF sites. VFR
Cigs are expected to develop after 19z at most TAF sites by 19Z as
drier air filters into the area from the west.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 210943
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/22







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210943
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
343 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Patchy fog was observed in Ozona at 09Z/3AM while low clouds
continue to overspread the region.  A surface trough of low
pressure, located across far West Texas, was providing low level
warm air advection, gusty south winds and isentropic lift, causing
low clouds to develop early this morning.  This surface trough
developed in response to a broad upper level trough located across
the Plains.

Latest models forecast the surface pressure gradient to tighten
through today and result in gusty south winds of 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning. Clouds will
be slow to clear from west to east through this afternoon,
resulting in mild temperatures across the west and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the Northwest Hill Country.

The models differ with the timing of the 850 MB trough passage
through West Central Texas tonight.  A slower passage could maintain
the low clouds in the area while a faster passage would decrease the
low clouds.  The NAM is slower compared to the faster ECMWF and GFS
models.  For now, went with a faster passage and decided not to
include fog for tonight.  However, fog and low clouds could form
across the eastern half of West Central Texas early Monday morning
if winds go light and the 850 MB trough holds off.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday night.

On Tuesday a vigorous upper level trough swings in from the west
across the forecast area. This trough will cause rising air,
increasing cloud cover and a chance for light scattered rain
showers mostly north and west of a line from southern Shackelford
County to northwest Coke County. Rain chances of 30 to 40 percent
will be highest across north and northwest most counties. South of
a Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona line rain chances will be
mostly less than 20 percent. The remainder of the forecast period
is expected to be dry. The NAM model keeps the area dry with only
clouds moving through with the upper level trough but all other
models are in agreement with the current forecast.

Thursday, Christmas Day, will be dry and very mild with morning
lows in the upper 30`s and afternoon highs in the 60`s.

A dry cold front will move south through the area on Friday,
December 26 and temperatures will drop significantly. As a
result, high temperatures on Saturday, December 27 will reach only
into the upper 40`s to near 50 with morning lows near or just
below freezing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  42  53 /   0   5   5  20  10
San Angelo  64  44  76  42  56 /   0   5   5  20  10
Junction  59  43  74  42  58 /   5   5   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/22






000
FXUS64 KSJT 210519
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR Stratus over West Central Texas will gradually fall to
IFR south of the I-20 corridor by daybreak. Lee trough will be
a little stronger Sunday, which will allow drier southwest air
to move into the region. Ceilings should rise to MVFR mid morning
and VFR Noon to early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Skies were temporarily scattering out this evening in West Central
Texas, but IFR/MVFR CIGS will be returning later this evening,
with a moist boundary layer in place. IFR visibilities in fog
possible at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD early Sunday morning. CIGS
should scattered out noon through early Sunday afternoon,.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 210519
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR Stratus over West Central Texas will gradually fall to
IFR south of the I-20 corridor by daybreak. Lee trough will be
a little stronger Sunday, which will allow drier southwest air
to move into the region. Ceilings should rise to MVFR mid morning
and VFR Noon to early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Skies were temporarily scattering out this evening in West Central
Texas, but IFR/MVFR CIGS will be returning later this evening,
with a moist boundary layer in place. IFR visibilities in fog
possible at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD early Sunday morning. CIGS
should scattered out noon through early Sunday afternoon,.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 210007
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Skies were temporarily scattering out this evening in West Central
Texas, but IFR/MVFR CIGS will be returning later this evening,
with a moist boundary layer in place. IFR visibilities in fog
possible at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD early Sunday morning. CIGS
should scattered out noon through early Sunday afternoon,.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210007
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Skies were temporarily scattering out this evening in West Central
Texas, but IFR/MVFR CIGS will be returning later this evening,
with a moist boundary layer in place. IFR visibilities in fog
possible at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD early Sunday morning. CIGS
should scattered out noon through early Sunday afternoon,.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 202123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/Doll







000
FXUS64 KSJT 202123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Cloud cover has been slow to erode this afternoon, similar to what
we saw yesterday. Expect more of the same overnight, with stratus
expanding with most areas overcast by morning. Areas of fog will be
possible across mainly our southern and western counties, where
winds will remain lightest and some breaks in the clouds are
expected. The expected cloud cover will help to keep overnight lows
unseasonably warm, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overcast skies are forecast across most of West Central Texas to
begin the day Sunday, but winds will become southwest at 8 to 12 mph
by late morning, ushering in drier air. The dry air intrusion will
help to erode cloud cover across most of the area by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals,
generally in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Rain chances will return during the first half of the work week.
Models have trended stronger with a Central Plains trough that is
expected to develop during the first half of the week. This is
likely due to better sampling of a very energetic jet stream that is
currently entering the Pacific Northwest. This jet stream was over
the Sea of Okhotsk (northeast of Japan) a few days ago, when it had
a 200+ knot jet stream associated with it. The current upper air
observations show it has weakened to near 150 knots, which is still
pretty respectable for this time of year. As such, the trend in the
model forecasts is for a sharper/deeper trough to develop across the
Central Plains, with a strong mid-level low developing near Iowa,
and a series of vorticity maximums rotating around this mid-level
low.

The first such disturbance will dive southeast across the area
Monday night/Tuesday, with a weak surface low forming ahead of the
system Monday evening across North Texas, sending a weak cold front
south across the area. The frontal timing moved ahead a few hours
compared to the overnight model runs, and this is likely due to the
aforementioned sampling concerns and stronger development that`s
forecast in the data. A down-sloping west to southwest surface wind
will develop ahead of this front. This, along with compressional
heating, and 850 mb temperatures in the 14-17 degree Celsius range,
will allow afternoon highs to climb into the lower to mid 70s across
most of the area. As the vorticity maximum approaches the area,
showers are expected to develop. Given the trend in the data for a
stronger/farther south track, POPs were bumped up to chance category
for areas along/north of Interstate 20, with slight chance POPs
extended farther south into the Concho valley and Heartland.

For Christmas Eve and beyond, the first trough will have departed
the area, with another trough developing to our west. Similar to the
first system, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Central
Texas, with a series of additional vorticity maximums passing by to
our north. The second trough will be more progressive/broad,
resulting in little if any chance for rainfall for the Christmas
Eve/Day. Another weak cold frontal passage is also likely for
Friday. Compressional heating looks to be less of a concern ahead of
the front with this front. However, a favorable wind pattern for
warming via down-sloping, and similar 850 temperatures argue for
highs possible breaching the 70 degree mark. For now, we`ve keep
afternoon highs on Thursday in the upper 60s range, but this may
need to be increased in alter forecasts in a faster frontal timing
is seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  62  45  72  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  43  64  44  76  42 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  41  62  43  74  42 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/Doll






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1100 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Extensive stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at all sites late
this morning. Models indicate some improvement in conditions this
afternoon, but am expecting a similar situation to what we say
yesterday, with MVFR ceilings holding on at most sites through much
of the day. Some breaks in the clouds will be possible this
afternoon, and will monitor and amend as needed. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings will continue overnight, with some IFR ceilings possible,
especially at KSOA and KJCT. Patchy fog will be possible early
Sunday morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT, where winds will be
lightest. Southeast winds today and tonight will generally remain
between 4 and 8 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Generally MVFR conditions across the area this morning, and mainly
due to low CIGS. KSOA is currently dealing with fog reducing VSBYs
to as low as 1/4SM, however, this is expected to be brief as low
clouds move across the terminal. We may see brief periods of IFR
or LIFR conditions at KJCT or KBBD as well this morning, but the
prevailing conditions should be MVFR. Expect these low ceilings to
hang on through most of the day today. There may be some periods
of clearing during the afternoon, before the low clouds redevelop
tonight after 00Z. Having low confidence in any clearing, have
kept MVFR conditions in place throughout the TAF forecast at all
sites. Light and variable winds initially will become southerly at
around 10 mph by this afternoon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  57  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 201700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1100 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Extensive stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at all sites late
this morning. Models indicate some improvement in conditions this
afternoon, but am expecting a similar situation to what we say
yesterday, with MVFR ceilings holding on at most sites through much
of the day. Some breaks in the clouds will be possible this
afternoon, and will monitor and amend as needed. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings will continue overnight, with some IFR ceilings possible,
especially at KSOA and KJCT. Patchy fog will be possible early
Sunday morning, mainly at KSOA and KJCT, where winds will be
lightest. Southeast winds today and tonight will generally remain
between 4 and 8 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Generally MVFR conditions across the area this morning, and mainly
due to low CIGS. KSOA is currently dealing with fog reducing VSBYs
to as low as 1/4SM, however, this is expected to be brief as low
clouds move across the terminal. We may see brief periods of IFR
or LIFR conditions at KJCT or KBBD as well this morning, but the
prevailing conditions should be MVFR. Expect these low ceilings to
hang on through most of the day today. There may be some periods
of clearing during the afternoon, before the low clouds redevelop
tonight after 00Z. Having low confidence in any clearing, have
kept MVFR conditions in place throughout the TAF forecast at all
sites. Light and variable winds initially will become southerly at
around 10 mph by this afternoon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  57  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201151
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Generally MVFR conditions across the area this morning, and mainly
due to low CIGS. KSOA is currently dealing with fog reducing VSBYs
to as low as 1/4SM, however, this is expected to be brief as low
clouds move across the terminal. We may see brief periods of IFR
or LIFR conditions at KJCT or KBBD as well this morning, but the
prevailing conditions should be MVFR. Expect these low ceilings to
hang on through most of the day today. There may be some periods
of clearing during the afternoon, before the low clouds redevelop
tonight after 00Z. Having low confidence in any clearing, have
kept MVFR conditions in place throughout the TAF forecast at all
sites. Light and variable winds initially will become southerly at
around 10 mph by this afternoon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  57  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 201004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  58  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 201004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  58  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KSJT 201004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  58  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 201004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

We currently have a mix of low clouds and fog across the area
this morning. Most of the area is just dealing with low clouds,
but Crockett, Irion, and parts of Sterling County have had areas
of fog, some of it dense at times. We are addressing the fog with
NOWCASTS for now, as low clouds continue to expand to the
northwest. These clouds should reduce the coverage of the fog that
has developed, but this will be watched closely, and a Dense Fog
Advisory may be issued later.

So, while we will start with these low clouds in place, it is a
relatively thin layer of moisture, and so we should see some
breaks in the low clouds on the western edge as we move into the
afternoon hours, similar to yesterday. With breaks expected later
today, we should see warmer temperatures as well, and have kept
the warmer temperatures inherited with minimal changes. No
significant changes to the overnight forecast either, with lows
expected to drop into the lower 40s. Southerly flow should be a
little more organized tonight, helping to reduce the possibility
of fog, so will leave the mention of fog out of the forecast,
although some patchy fog could develop again as temperatures will
be falling to or near the dew point once again.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Low cloudiness across some of west central Texas early Sunday
morning will clear out mid/late morning, with low-level flow veering
to the southwest and drier air advecting into our area. Temperatures
will be warmer Sunday with highs expected to be in the 60-65 degree
range.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest Sunday
night and Monday, and associated cold front will push south
across the Red River Monday afternoon. Looks dry and warm south
of this front across our area. Have increased highs into the lower
to mid 70s given the forecast pattern, with west-southwest low-
level flow and associated downsloping effects and 850 mb
temperatures climbing to 14-16 degrees C. Should have an increase
in high cloud coverage during the day to limit temperatures from
climbing much further than currently anticipated. Going with mid
to upper 60s for highs across our far northern counties, where the
cold front should arrive by late afternoon.

The cold front will advance south across the rest of west central
Texas Monday night. The aforementioned upper trough is progged to
deepen a bit further into Texas Monday night, with a disturbance
moving into its base. Lift and moisture look sufficient to support
low PoPs for showers across our northern counties Monday night.

Gusty north winds will follow passage of the cold front and continue
into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 50s. Some cloud cover is expected,
especially in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to drop into
the lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night with radiational
cooling, as surface high drops south across West Texas.

Dry conditions with a warming trend expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with the flow aloft over Texas transitioning from northwest to
west. Temperatures look well-above normal for Christmas Day when
forecast highs (in the 70s) could be similar to what occurs Monday.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ with handling of an upper trough
moving out of the northwestern part of the U.S. during the middle
to late part of next week. Despite these differences, both models
indicate a dry cold frontal passage across our area late Thursday
night/early Friday morning.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  41  62  44  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  58  41  65  44  75 /   0   0   5   5   5
Junction  58  39  62  42  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KSJT 200512
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1112 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to spread over the area through tomorrow
morning accompanied by MVFR ceilings. Visibilities will begin to
degrade over the area by 09Z...lowering to 2SM or less around 12Z.
Visibilities will begin to clear and ceilings will lift to VFR
around mid-morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  38  54  42  60 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  36  58  42  63 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  55  37  58  40  60 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 200512
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1112 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to spread over the area through tomorrow
morning accompanied by MVFR ceilings. Visibilities will begin to
degrade over the area by 09Z...lowering to 2SM or less around 12Z.
Visibilities will begin to clear and ceilings will lift to VFR
around mid-morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  38  54  42  60 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  36  58  42  63 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  55  37  58  40  60 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04










000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04










000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









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