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000
FXUS64 KSJT 302102
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

/Tonight and Wednesday/

Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.

.LONG TERM...

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.

The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.

With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  92  72  92  56 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  69  93  73  89  57 /  10   5  10  20  10
Junction  66  91  73  90  60 /   5   5   5  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/60








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302102
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

/Tonight and Wednesday/

Isolated showers have been affecting the Big County this afternoon,
embedded within the mid-level moist axis streaming across the Lone
Star State from southwest to northeast. The RAP Mesoanalysis
indicates a narrow axis of MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg
across the western counties this afternoon, but even the cu
development as been rather limited, suggesting a pretty strong cap.
We are seeing a bit more vertical development in the cu field over
the Trans-Pecos area, however, and any convection that develops may
drift into the southwest zones. Thus, the slight chance PoPs were
retained this evening, mainly west of a line from Ozona, to Robert
Lee, to Miller Creek Reservoir. Winds will be a few mph stronger
than what was observed last night and, combined with the increasing
low-level moisture, should support min temps in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday, the thermal ridge axis will shift east, resulting in
850mb temps of 24-25C across the Big Country and Concho Valley by
peak heating. With low-level adiabatic lapse rates during the
afternoon hours, we should have little problem warming into the
lower 90s across much of the area. These warm temperatures may
strain the cap to its breaking point by late afternoon, so the
mention of showers and thunderstorms was retained after 20z (3 PM).
Coverage is expected to remain very limited, but any storms that
develop could be strong.

.LONG TERM...

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a strengthening trough
progressing southeast across the Inter-mountain West, upper-level
moisture streaming northeast across west central Texas from Tropical
Depression Rachel, and a shortwave trough lifting northeast across
the Dakotas. A dryline observed in surface observations extends
south through the Texas Panhandle, with a few showers developing
ahead of this feature. Ahead of this dryline, southeasterly surface
winds continue to advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico.

The trend in the model solutions the past few days has been to delay
the arrival of a cold front. This trend has continued today with the
GFS and ECMWF trending towards the NAM model. Convective
temperatures are expected to be reached tomorrow evening. With
sufficient moisture/good instability in place, shower and
thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly north and west of
a line from San Angelo to Baird. Forecast soundings show SBCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg, around 20-25 Kts of 0-6km shear, and T/TD
spreads around 30 degrees F. With this type of environment, a few
strong thunderstorms will be possible.

With the arrival of the upper trough Thursday, a cold front will
cross the area during the day. For Thursday, moisture, instability,
and shear will increase ahead of the cold front, with forecast
soundings indicating convective temperatures being reached, and a
higher potential for strong thunderstorms/possibly a few severe/ if
frontal timing in the models are correct. Friday will feature cooler
temperatures, with highs near 80 degrees. Another disturbance will
cross the Central Plains this weekend sending a weak cold front
south. This front will stall across the area on Sunday, with
increasing surface moisture likely south of the front. However,
moisture return looks insufficient for shower development at this
time. Overall confidence is moderate in rain chances
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  92  72  92  56 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  69  93  73  89  57 /  10   5  10  20  10
Junction  66  91  73  90  60 /   5   5   5  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/60









000
FXUS64 KSJT 301716
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A scattered cumulus field is expected between 5-6 kft this
afternoon across West Central TX. Isolated showers continue across
the western Big Country and we may see additional development
later this afternoon around peak heating. However, confidence is
low that any convection will affect the forecast terminals. Once
we lose diurnal heating, the cu field will give way to some mid-
level cloud cover. Low clouds will be possible late tonight across
the southern portion of the area. The bulk of these clouds will
remain over the Hill Country, but scattered stratus around 1500 ft
was included at KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA after 10z. If confidence
increases, ceilings will need to be included at these sites.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

Isolated convection has developed over the South Plains from near
Big Spring, to Snyder, to Spur. This activity is expected to
weaken this morning as it moves east but it may make it into the
western Big Country. Additional development of showers and
thunderstorms is possible later today over the same area. Hi-res
CAMS indicate isolated convection after 20z in a low CAPE,
uncapped environment. Given this potential and the ongoing showers
to the west, a isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to
the forecast west of a line from Sterling City, to Anson, to
Miller Creek Reservoir.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT
by late morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection
may develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to
remain west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill
Country of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern
terminals towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low
clouds is still in question and will leave out of the TAFs at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this
activity may reach far western sections by early evening, with
the most favored area across the western Big Country counties
generally west of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs
going across this area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett
county by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC
and some of the high resolution models develop convection farther
east across the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating.
While this can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a
convective temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface
feature will preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal
ridge will be a bit stronger and farther east today, which will
result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front,
followed by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be
above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM
is indicating some convergence along a surface trough, mainly
across the western Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening
hours Wednesday, resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Slight chance PoPs were included across the western Big Country
for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through
West Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the front, mainly across the southern and
eastern half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only
minor tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance
across the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal,
temperatures are forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to
near 60. A slow warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /   5  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 301716
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A scattered cumulus field is expected between 5-6 kft this
afternoon across West Central TX. Isolated showers continue across
the western Big Country and we may see additional development
later this afternoon around peak heating. However, confidence is
low that any convection will affect the forecast terminals. Once
we lose diurnal heating, the cu field will give way to some mid-
level cloud cover. Low clouds will be possible late tonight across
the southern portion of the area. The bulk of these clouds will
remain over the Hill Country, but scattered stratus around 1500 ft
was included at KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA after 10z. If confidence
increases, ceilings will need to be included at these sites.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

Isolated convection has developed over the South Plains from near
Big Spring, to Snyder, to Spur. This activity is expected to
weaken this morning as it moves east but it may make it into the
western Big Country. Additional development of showers and
thunderstorms is possible later today over the same area. Hi-res
CAMS indicate isolated convection after 20z in a low CAPE,
uncapped environment. Given this potential and the ongoing showers
to the west, a isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to
the forecast west of a line from Sterling City, to Anson, to
Miller Creek Reservoir.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT
by late morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection
may develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to
remain west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill
Country of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern
terminals towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low
clouds is still in question and will leave out of the TAFs at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this
activity may reach far western sections by early evening, with
the most favored area across the western Big Country counties
generally west of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs
going across this area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett
county by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC
and some of the high resolution models develop convection farther
east across the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating.
While this can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a
convective temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface
feature will preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal
ridge will be a bit stronger and farther east today, which will
result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front,
followed by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be
above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM
is indicating some convergence along a surface trough, mainly
across the western Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening
hours Wednesday, resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Slight chance PoPs were included across the western Big Country
for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through
West Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the front, mainly across the southern and
eastern half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only
minor tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance
across the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal,
temperatures are forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to
near 60. A slow warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /   5  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 301425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
925 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Isolated convection has developed over the South Plains from near
Big Spring, to Snyder, to Spur. This activity is expected to
weaken this morning as it moves east but it may make it into the
western Big Country. Additional development of showers and
thunderstorms is possible later today over the same area. Hi-res
CAMS indicate isolated convection after 20z in a low CAPE,
uncapped environment. Given this potential and the ongoing showers
to the west, a isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to
the forecast west of a line from Sterling City, to Anson, to
Miller Creek Reservoir.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT
by late morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection
may develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to
remain west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill
Country of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern
terminals towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low
clouds is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this
activity may reach far western sections by early evening, with
the most favored area across the western Big Country counties
generally west of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs
going across this area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett
county by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC
and some of the high resolution models develop convection farther
east across the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating.
While this can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a
convective temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface
feature will preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal
ridge will be a bit stronger and farther east today, which will
result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front,
followed by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be
above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM
is indicating some convergence along a surface trough, mainly
across the western Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening
hours Wednesday, resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Slight chance PoPs were included across the western Big Country
for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through
West Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the front, mainly across the southern and
eastern half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only
minor tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance
across the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal,
temperatures are forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to
near 60. A slow warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /   5  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 301425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
925 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Isolated convection has developed over the South Plains from near
Big Spring, to Snyder, to Spur. This activity is expected to
weaken this morning as it moves east but it may make it into the
western Big Country. Additional development of showers and
thunderstorms is possible later today over the same area. Hi-res
CAMS indicate isolated convection after 20z in a low CAPE,
uncapped environment. Given this potential and the ongoing showers
to the west, a isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to
the forecast west of a line from Sterling City, to Anson, to
Miller Creek Reservoir.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24
hours. Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT
by late morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection
may develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to
remain west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill
Country of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern
terminals towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low
clouds is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this
activity may reach far western sections by early evening, with
the most favored area across the western Big Country counties
generally west of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs
going across this area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett
county by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC
and some of the high resolution models develop convection farther
east across the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating.
While this can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a
convective temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface
feature will preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal
ridge will be a bit stronger and farther east today, which will
result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front,
followed by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be
above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM
is indicating some convergence along a surface trough, mainly
across the western Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening
hours Wednesday, resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Slight chance PoPs were included across the western Big Country
for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through
West Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along the front, mainly across the southern and
eastern half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only
minor tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance
across the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal,
temperatures are forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to
near 60. A slow warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /   5  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 301153 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT by late
morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection may
develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to remain
west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill Country
of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern terminals
towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low clouds
is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 301153 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light south winds this morning will increase 10 to 15 KT by late
morning, diminishing by early evening. Isolated convection may
develop late this afternoon and evening but is expected to remain
west of the terminals. Stratus may develop across the Hill Country
of Texas late tonight, possibly reaching the southern terminals
towards daybreak. Northward extent and coverage of low clouds
is still in question and will leave out of the TAF`s at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 300937 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 300937 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A compact upper low embedded within a broader western CONUS
trough, will lift northeast across the Dakotas today. Westerly
flow aloft within the base of the upper trough will induce a
weak surface trough in the lee of the Rockies today, with the
trough axis extending south across West Texas. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected to develop along and east of
this feature late this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity
may reach far western sections by early evening, with the most
favored area across the western Big Country counties generally west
of a Throckmorton to Sweetwater line. Kept 20 POPs going across this
area this evening and overnight.

Convection should be more isolated farther south, but could move
into far western portions of the Concho Valley and Crockett county
by early evening. It is interesting to note that the RUC and some
of the high resolution models develop convection farther east across
the Big Country and Concho valley during peak heating. While this
can`t be ruled out entirely, due to minimal CAP and a convective
temperature around 90 degrees, the lack of any surface feature will
preclude mentioning POPs at this time. The thermal ridge will be a
bit stronger and farther east today, which will result in afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday through Monday/

The main concern in the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold front, followed
by cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be above seasonal
normals, generally in the lower to mid 90s. The NAM is indicating
some convergence along a surface trough, mainly across the western
Big Country, during the late afternoon/evening hours Wednesday,
resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Slight chance PoPs
were included across the western Big Country for this time frame.

An upper level trough will move across The Rockies Wednesday, then
across the Plains Thursday. This will send a cold front through West
Central Texas during the day Thursday, clearing the area by early
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, mainly across the southern and eastern
half of the area, where better moisture will reside. Only minor
tweaks were made to the current PoPs, with the best chance across
the Northwest Hill Country. Cooler, near seasonal, temperatures are
forecast behind the front on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60. A slow
warm up will ensue Sunday through early next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  69  91  71  87 /  10  10  10  20  20
San Angelo  91  69  92  72  88 /   5  10   5  10  20
Junction  88  67  91  73  90 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300452 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Expect to have gusts to near 20 KT at KABI. Patchy
high clouds are currently traversing the area and this will
continue into the overnight hours. With the increase in low-level
moisture, should have some cloud development late tonight and
early Tuesday morning across parts of our southern and central
counties. Any ceilings should stay in the VFR category, around
4000 ft or higher. In addition, a VFR-based cumulus field is
expected to develop during the day Tuesday. Any showers and
thunderstorms that develop late Tuesday afternoon and evening
(over northwest Texas) are expected to stay northwest of our TAF
sites.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 300452 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1151 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Expect to have gusts to near 20 KT at KABI. Patchy
high clouds are currently traversing the area and this will
continue into the overnight hours. With the increase in low-level
moisture, should have some cloud development late tonight and
early Tuesday morning across parts of our southern and central
counties. Any ceilings should stay in the VFR category, around
4000 ft or higher. In addition, a VFR-based cumulus field is
expected to develop during the day Tuesday. Any showers and
thunderstorms that develop late Tuesday afternoon and evening
(over northwest Texas) are expected to stay northwest of our TAF
sites.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 300450 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Expect to have gusts to near 20 KT at KABI. Patchy
high clouds are currently traversing the area and this will
continue into the overnight hours. With the increase in low-level
moisture, should have some cloud development late tonight and
early Tuesday morning across parts of our southern and central
counties. Any ceilings should stay in the VFR category, around
4000 ft or higher. In addition, a VFR-based cumulus field is
expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 300450 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Expect to have gusts to near 20 KT at KABI. Patchy
high clouds are currently traversing the area and this will
continue into the overnight hours. With the increase in low-level
moisture, should have some cloud development late tonight and
early Tuesday morning across parts of our southern and central
counties. Any ceilings should stay in the VFR category, around
4000 ft or higher. In addition, a VFR-based cumulus field is
expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 292348 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 292348 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites across our area. Light southeast winds will veer
to the south overnight. South winds will increase on Tuesday, and
will become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT during the late morning
and afternoon. Could have a few gusts near 20 KT at KABI. The
cumulus field early this evening will dissipate by or shortly after
sunset, with generally clear skies expected through most of the
night. With the increase in low-level moisture, could have some
cloud development toward morning across the southern part of our
area. Any ceilings should be 3500 ft or higher. A VFR-based
cumulus field is expected to develop during the day Tuesday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 292019
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 292019
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tuesday/

Moisture at all levels will continue to increase across the area
through the next 24 hours. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows
Tropical Storm Rachel, located southwest of Baja California,
drifting slowly north. Southwesterly upper-level winds associated
with a shortwave over northern New Mexico is helping advect
upper-level moisture into western parts of the state from the
tropical storm. As this wave lifts northeast, a dryline will sharpen
to our west during the day tomorrow, while a stronger disturbance
dives southeast across northern California, heading towards the
Panhandle.

The overall trend in the model solutions is for a farther south trek
with the California disturbance, with minimal height rises behind
the departing shortwave mentioned above. The net result for our area
is a dryline will develop/strengthen during the day tomorrow to our
west. A thermal ridge will build over the area during the afternoon,
with 850 mb temperatures increasing by 3-4 degrees C compared to
today. This will lead to afternoon highs increasing to near 90
degrees. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase, as winds
from the south/southeast will maintain a continued feed of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, upper-level moisture will also
continue to increase from the Pacific. As the lead edge of the
California wave approaches the Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the dryline. Some of this activity may
affect parts of the Big Country, mainly north and west of a
Sweetwater to Haskell line.

60

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Monday/

The forecast area early Tuesday night will be under a pseudo zonal
flow aloft as an upper low begins to dig south over the northern
Rockies. As the upper low continues to dig a trough over the
western states, the flow aloft over the forecast area will back to
the southwest on Wednesday. The 850mb thermal ridge will continue to
strengthen over West Texas and build to the east with highs over the
forecast area on Wednesday warming into the lower 90s over most of
the area. A prefrontal trough/dryline associated with the upper
trough over the western states will move east to the border of our
western CWA border Wednesday afternoon. With the help of a
strengthening LLJ and deep low level moisture ahead of the surface
trough/dryline, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving east off the dryline and over the northern Big
Country Wednesday afternoon. If the storms hold together there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the remainder of the
Big Country and areas just south of Interstate 20 Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves east over the Southern Plains on Thursday
it will push a cold front through the forecast area. The cold front
should enter our northwestern counties Thursday morning and exit our
southeastern counties by Thursday evening. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon over the
eastern CWA during the time of peak heating. Rainfall should end
over our southeastern counties Thursday night. The forecast will be
dry on Friday and through the beginning of the coming week.

Postfrontal temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s over the southeastern counties ahead of the cold
front. By Friday afternoon highs over all of the forecast area will
be in the lower 80s. Prefrontal morning lows on Thursday in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s will cool into the upper 50s to around 60
on Friday morning with low to mid 50s for the weekend.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  90  68  92  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  62  90  69  92  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
Junction  64  89  69  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 291711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate your weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern will remain across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. A more active weather pattern will reside to our
west as a strong negative tilt upper level trough interacts with
increasing low level moisture and instability. as a result, some
convection will fire across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Short range models, including the 3KM TTU
WRF indicate some storms making it east into the Panhandle and
South Plains this evening and dissipating by midnight. Again, all
this activity will remain west of our area. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Monday/

Temperatures will be quite warm Tuesday and Wednesday as the
thermal ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the area.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Could see a few storms
develop along a weak surface trough to our northwest late Tuesday
afternoon and some of this activity may make it into northwest
portions of the Big Country Tuesday evening. The trough axis will be
farther east on Wednesday and have retained slight POPs across the
Big Country for Wednesday night.

A more amplified upper trough will take shape across the Rockies on
Wednesday and will move into the Plains on Thursday. Associated cold
front will move across our area on Thursday, with the front expected
to clear southeast counties by late afternoon. It still looks like
the best chance for showers and Thunderstorms will be across east
and southeast counties along and ahead of the front, mainly Thursday
afternoon and evening, where moisture and instability will be
greatest.

Dry weather is expected Friday through next weekend. Below normal
temperatures will follow the front on Friday, with light north winds
and highs in the lower 80s. South winds return next weekend, with
high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight
lows will be cool, mainly in the 50s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  68  89 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  87  64  89  69  89 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  87  63  89  69  89 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/24/60









000
FXUS64 KSJT 291711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate your weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern will remain across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. A more active weather pattern will reside to our
west as a strong negative tilt upper level trough interacts with
increasing low level moisture and instability. as a result, some
convection will fire across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Short range models, including the 3KM TTU
WRF indicate some storms making it east into the Panhandle and
South Plains this evening and dissipating by midnight. Again, all
this activity will remain west of our area. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Monday/

Temperatures will be quite warm Tuesday and Wednesday as the
thermal ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the area.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Could see a few storms
develop along a weak surface trough to our northwest late Tuesday
afternoon and some of this activity may make it into northwest
portions of the Big Country Tuesday evening. The trough axis will be
farther east on Wednesday and have retained slight POPs across the
Big Country for Wednesday night.

A more amplified upper trough will take shape across the Rockies on
Wednesday and will move into the Plains on Thursday. Associated cold
front will move across our area on Thursday, with the front expected
to clear southeast counties by late afternoon. It still looks like
the best chance for showers and Thunderstorms will be across east
and southeast counties along and ahead of the front, mainly Thursday
afternoon and evening, where moisture and instability will be
greatest.

Dry weather is expected Friday through next weekend. Below normal
temperatures will follow the front on Friday, with light north winds
and highs in the lower 80s. South winds return next weekend, with
high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight
lows will be cool, mainly in the 50s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  68  89 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  87  64  89  69  89 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  87  63  89  69  89 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/24/60








000
FXUS64 KSJT 291130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern will remain across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. A more active weather pattern will reside to our
west as a strong negative tilt upper level trough interacts with
increasing low level moisture and instability. as a result, some
convection will fire across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Short range models, including the 3KM TTU
WRF indicate some storms making it east into the Panhandle and
South Plains this evening and dissipating by midnight. Again, all
this activity will remain west of our area. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Monday/

Temperatures will be quite warm Tuesday and Wednesday as the
thermal ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the area.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Could see a few storms
develop along a weak surface trough to our northwest late Tuesday
afternoon and some of this activity may make it into northwest
portions of the Big Country Tuesday evening. The trough axis will be
farther east on Wednesday and have retained slight POPs across the
Big Country for Wednesday night.

A more amplified upper trough will take shape across the Rockies on
Wednesday and will move into the Plains on Thursday. Associated cold
front will move across our area on Thursday, with the front expected
to clear southeast counties by late afternoon. It still looks like
the best chance for showers and Thunderstorms will be across east
and southeast counties along and ahead of the front, mainly Thursday
afternoon and evening, where moisture and instability will be
greatest.

Dry weather is expected Friday through next weekend. Below normal
temperatures will follow the front on Friday, with light north winds
and highs in the lower 80s. South winds return next weekend, with
high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight
lows will be cool, mainly in the 50s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  89  68  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  86  64  89  68  92 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  86  63  89  68  89 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 291130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern will remain across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. A more active weather pattern will reside to our
west as a strong negative tilt upper level trough interacts with
increasing low level moisture and instability. as a result, some
convection will fire across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Short range models, including the 3KM TTU
WRF indicate some storms making it east into the Panhandle and
South Plains this evening and dissipating by midnight. Again, all
this activity will remain west of our area. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Monday/

Temperatures will be quite warm Tuesday and Wednesday as the
thermal ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the area.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Could see a few storms
develop along a weak surface trough to our northwest late Tuesday
afternoon and some of this activity may make it into northwest
portions of the Big Country Tuesday evening. The trough axis will be
farther east on Wednesday and have retained slight POPs across the
Big Country for Wednesday night.

A more amplified upper trough will take shape across the Rockies on
Wednesday and will move into the Plains on Thursday. Associated cold
front will move across our area on Thursday, with the front expected
to clear southeast counties by late afternoon. It still looks like
the best chance for showers and Thunderstorms will be across east
and southeast counties along and ahead of the front, mainly Thursday
afternoon and evening, where moisture and instability will be
greatest.

Dry weather is expected Friday through next weekend. Below normal
temperatures will follow the front on Friday, with light north winds
and highs in the lower 80s. South winds return next weekend, with
high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight
lows will be cool, mainly in the 50s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  89  68  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  86  64  89  68  92 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  86  63  89  68  89 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 290953
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern will remain across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. A more active weather pattern will reside to our
west as a strong negative tilt upper level trough interacts with
increasing low level moisture and instability. as a result, some
convection will fire across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. Short range models, including the 3KM TTU
WRF indicate some storms making it east into the Panhandle and
South Plains this evening and dissipating by midnight. Again, all
this activity will remain west of our area. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday through Monday/

Temperatures will be quite warm Tuesday and Wednesday as the
thermal ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the area.
Afternoon highs will be above normal for this time of year with
readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Could see a few storms
develop along a weak surface trough to our northwest late Tuesday
afternoon and some of this activity may make it into northwest
portions of the Big Country Tuesday evening. The trough axis will be
farther east on Wednesday and have retained slight POPs across the
Big Country for Wednesday night.

A more amplified upper trough will take shape across the Rockies on
Wednesday and will move into the Plains on Thursday. Associated cold
front will move across our area on Thursday, with the front expected
to clear southeast counties by late afternoon. It still looks like
the best chance for showers and Thunderstorms will be across east
and southeast counties along and ahead of the front, mainly Thursday
afternoon and evening, where moisture and instability will be
greatest.

Dry weather is expected Friday through next weekend. Below normal
temperatures will follow the front on Friday, with light north winds
and highs in the lower 80s. South winds return next weekend, with
high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Overnight
lows will be cool, mainly in the 50s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  89  68  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  86  64  89  68  92 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  86  63  89  68  89 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 290449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Models this cycle indicate VFR conditions and light winds will
continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions and light winds to dominate for the next
24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Monday/

A quiet weather pattern continues through tomorrow as an upper
level  ridge continues to build over the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs warming into
the mid and upper 80s. Winds will remain light under mostly clear
skies.

LONG TERM...
/Monday night through Sunday/

Mid-week forecast concerns are plentiful. Models have trended
slightly farther south with the trek of the mid-week system,
especially the GFS, placing the region in a somewhat better
position  for jet entrance region dynamics. Another notable
change has been the tendency in the model solutions to intensify
and expand the 850mb thermal ridge over the area
Wednesday/Thursday. We`ll likely see some compressional heating
ahead of the front and this is shown in the mass fields, with
850mb temps running above 25 C across the northern half of the
area Wednesday, remaining above 24 C across southern areas
Thursday. Given the expected south to southwest flow ahead of the
front and its associated down slope effects and the proximity of
the thermal ridge, afternoon highs were increased slightly above
guidance for these days.

For Thursday, the ECMWF depicts this front blasting through the
area  during the day, from a Midland to Wichita Falls line during
the morning, to well south of Interstate 10 by sunset. The GFS
offers a more likely scenario, with the front making much slower
progress to the south. It shows the front bisecting the middle
portion of the area by 7 PM. The main energy of the system will be
located across the Central Plains by midday, heading towards the
Great Lakes. Convection that develops during the day Wednesday
will largely be diurnally driven. It`ll also depend on the
strength of any surface convergence and if convective temperatures
can be reached. With only spotty convection and minimal pressure
rises forecast behind the front, the rapid frontal movement
offered by the ECMWF seems unlikely and we`ll follow the GFS
solution.

As for our rainfall possibilities, not much has changed from
previous thinking for Tuesday and Wednesday. With a slower frontal
progression expected on Thursday, POPs were expanded slightly
farther north and west, and they were increased south and east of
a Sonora to Brownwood line. High pressure will build over the
region for Friday through the weekend, offering slighter cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and abundant sunshine.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  86  64  89  68 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  59  85  66  89  69 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  58  86  65  88  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term: 15
Long Term: Doll
Aviation: Huber








000
FXUS64 KSJT 290449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Models this cycle indicate VFR conditions and light winds will
continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions and light winds to dominate for the next
24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Monday/

A quiet weather pattern continues through tomorrow as an upper
level  ridge continues to build over the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs warming into
the mid and upper 80s. Winds will remain light under mostly clear
skies.

LONG TERM...
/Monday night through Sunday/

Mid-week forecast concerns are plentiful. Models have trended
slightly farther south with the trek of the mid-week system,
especially the GFS, placing the region in a somewhat better
position  for jet entrance region dynamics. Another notable
change has been the tendency in the model solutions to intensify
and expand the 850mb thermal ridge over the area
Wednesday/Thursday. We`ll likely see some compressional heating
ahead of the front and this is shown in the mass fields, with
850mb temps running above 25 C across the northern half of the
area Wednesday, remaining above 24 C across southern areas
Thursday. Given the expected south to southwest flow ahead of the
front and its associated down slope effects and the proximity of
the thermal ridge, afternoon highs were increased slightly above
guidance for these days.

For Thursday, the ECMWF depicts this front blasting through the
area  during the day, from a Midland to Wichita Falls line during
the morning, to well south of Interstate 10 by sunset. The GFS
offers a more likely scenario, with the front making much slower
progress to the south. It shows the front bisecting the middle
portion of the area by 7 PM. The main energy of the system will be
located across the Central Plains by midday, heading towards the
Great Lakes. Convection that develops during the day Wednesday
will largely be diurnally driven. It`ll also depend on the
strength of any surface convergence and if convective temperatures
can be reached. With only spotty convection and minimal pressure
rises forecast behind the front, the rapid frontal movement
offered by the ECMWF seems unlikely and we`ll follow the GFS
solution.

As for our rainfall possibilities, not much has changed from
previous thinking for Tuesday and Wednesday. With a slower frontal
progression expected on Thursday, POPs were expanded slightly
farther north and west, and they were increased south and east of
a Sonora to Brownwood line. High pressure will build over the
region for Friday through the weekend, offering slighter cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and abundant sunshine.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  86  64  89  68 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  59  85  66  89  69 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  58  86  65  88  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term: 15
Long Term: Doll
Aviation: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 282334
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions and light winds to dominate for the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Monday/

A quiet weather pattern continues through tomorrow as an upper
level  ridge continues to build over the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs warming into
the mid and upper 80s. Winds will remain light under mostly clear
skies.

LONG TERM...
/Monday night through Sunday/

Mid-week forecast concerns are plentiful. Models have trended
slightly farther south with the trek of the mid-week system,
especially the GFS, placing the region in a somewhat better
position  for jet entrance region dynamics. Another notable
change has been the tendency in the model solutions to intensify
and expand the 850mb thermal ridge over the area
Wednesday/Thursday. We`ll likely see some compressional heating
ahead of the front and this is shown in the mass fields, with
850mb temps running above 25 C across the northern half of the
area Wednesday, remaining above 24 C across southern areas
Thursday. Given the expected south to southwest flow ahead of the
front and its associated down slope effects and the proximity of
the thermal ridge, afternoon highs were increased slightly above
guidance for these days.

For Thursday, the ECMWF depicts this front blasting through the
area  during the day, from a Midland to Wichita Falls line during
the morning, to well south of Interstate 10 by sunset. The GFS
offers a more likely scenario, with the front making much slower
progress to the south. It shows the front bisecting the middle
portion of the area by 7 PM. The main energy of the system will be
located across the Central Plains by midday, heading towards the
Great Lakes. Convection that develops during the day Wednesday
will largely be diurnally driven. It`ll also depend on the
strength of any surface convergence and if convective temperatures
can be reached. With only spotty convection and minimal pressure
rises forecast behind the front, the rapid frontal movement
offered by the ECMWF seems unlikely and we`ll follow the GFS
solution.

As for our rainfall possibilities, not much has changed from
previous thinking for Tuesday and Wednesday. With a slower frontal
progression expected on Thursday, POPs were expanded slightly
farther north and west, and they were increased south and east of
a Sonora to Brownwood line. High pressure will build over the
region for Friday through the weekend, offering slighter cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and abundant sunshine.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  86  64  89  68 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  61  85  66  89  69 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  60  86  65  88  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term: 15
Long Term: Doll
Aviation: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 282046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
346 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Monday/

A quiet weather pattern continues through tomorrow as an upper
level  ridge continues to build over the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs warming into
the mid and upper 80s. Winds will remain light under mostly clear
skies.

.LONG TERM...
/Monday night through Sunday/

Mid-week forecast concerns are plentiful. Models have trended
slightly farther south with the trek of the mid-week system,
especially the GFS, placing the region in a somewhat better
position  for jet entrance region dynamics. Another notable
change has been the tendency in the model solutions to intensify
and expand the 850mb thermal ridge over the area
Wednesday/Thursday. We`ll likely see some compressional heating
ahead of the front and this is shown in the mass fields, with
850mb temps running above 25 C across the northern half of the
area Wednesday, remaining above 24 C across southern areas
Thursday. Given the expected south to southwest flow ahead of the
front and its associated down slope effects and the proximity of
the thermal ridge, afternoon highs were increased slightly above
guidance for these days.

For Thursday, the ECMWF depicts this front blasting through the
area  during the day, from a Midland to Wichita Falls line during
the morning, to well south of Interstate 10 by sunset. The GFS
offers a more likely scenario, with the front making much slower
progress to the south. It shows the front bisecting the middle
portion of the area by 7 PM. The main energy of the system will be
located across the Central Plains by midday, heading towards the
Great Lakes. Convection that develops during the day Wednesday
will largely be diurnally driven. It`ll also depend on the
strength of any surface convergence and if convective temperatures
can be reached. With only spotty convection and minimal pressure
rises forecast behind the front, the rapid frontal movement
offered by the ECMWF seems unlikely and we`ll follow the GFS
solution.

As for our rainfall possibilities, not much has changed from
previous thinking for Tuesday and Wednesday. With a slower frontal
progression expected on Thursday, POPs were expanded slightly
farther north and west, and they were increased south and east of
a Sonora to Brownwood line. High pressure will build over the
region for Friday through the weekend, offering slighter cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and abundant sunshine.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  86  64  89  68 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  61  85  66  89  69 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  60  86  65  88  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 282046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
346 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Monday/

A quiet weather pattern continues through tomorrow as an upper
level  ridge continues to build over the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs warming into
the mid and upper 80s. Winds will remain light under mostly clear
skies.

.LONG TERM...
/Monday night through Sunday/

Mid-week forecast concerns are plentiful. Models have trended
slightly farther south with the trek of the mid-week system,
especially the GFS, placing the region in a somewhat better
position  for jet entrance region dynamics. Another notable
change has been the tendency in the model solutions to intensify
and expand the 850mb thermal ridge over the area
Wednesday/Thursday. We`ll likely see some compressional heating
ahead of the front and this is shown in the mass fields, with
850mb temps running above 25 C across the northern half of the
area Wednesday, remaining above 24 C across southern areas
Thursday. Given the expected south to southwest flow ahead of the
front and its associated down slope effects and the proximity of
the thermal ridge, afternoon highs were increased slightly above
guidance for these days.

For Thursday, the ECMWF depicts this front blasting through the
area  during the day, from a Midland to Wichita Falls line during
the morning, to well south of Interstate 10 by sunset. The GFS
offers a more likely scenario, with the front making much slower
progress to the south. It shows the front bisecting the middle
portion of the area by 7 PM. The main energy of the system will be
located across the Central Plains by midday, heading towards the
Great Lakes. Convection that develops during the day Wednesday
will largely be diurnally driven. It`ll also depend on the
strength of any surface convergence and if convective temperatures
can be reached. With only spotty convection and minimal pressure
rises forecast behind the front, the rapid frontal movement
offered by the ECMWF seems unlikely and we`ll follow the GFS
solution.

As for our rainfall possibilities, not much has changed from
previous thinking for Tuesday and Wednesday. With a slower frontal
progression expected on Thursday, POPs were expanded slightly
farther north and west, and they were increased south and east of
a Sonora to Brownwood line. High pressure will build over the
region for Friday through the weekend, offering slighter cooler
temperatures, less humidity, and abundant sunshine.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  86  64  89  68 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  61  85  66  89  69 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  60  86  65  88  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Doll










000
FXUS64 KSJT 281705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the next 24
hours at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. Some stratus was over Crockett County this morning. The low
clouds should stay west of the KSOA terminal, so keeping the TAF
forecast VFR for now. The winds will be south to southeast at
around 10 knots after 18Z today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21










000
FXUS64 KSJT 281705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the next 24
hours at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. Some stratus was over Crockett County this morning. The low
clouds should stay west of the KSOA terminal, so keeping the TAF
forecast VFR for now. The winds will be south to southeast at
around 10 knots after 18Z today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21











000
FXUS64 KSJT 281125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. Some stratus was over Crockett County this morning. The low
clouds should stay west of the KSOA terminal, so keeping the TAF
forecast VFR for now. The winds will be south to southeast at
around 10 knots after 18Z today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 281125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24
hours. Some stratus was over Crockett County this morning. The low
clouds should stay west of the KSOA terminal, so keeping the TAF
forecast VFR for now. The winds will be south to southeast at
around 10 knots after 18Z today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 280951
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24












000
FXUS64 KSJT 280951
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A quiet weather pattern is expected across West Central Texas the
next 24 hours. Some mid clouds will remain across the area today,
with low clouds possibly developing this morning across the Northern
Edwards Plateau. Skies will be mostly clear by tonight. Highs today
will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through Sunday/

A large upper low will be centered over the Great Basin early
Monday morning and will lift northeast into the Northern Plains
by late Tuesday. Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will
occur ahead of this system over the Southern Plains through
midweek, with above normal temperatures expected. A weak surface
trough/dryline will develop across the Panhandle and far west
Texas Tuesday afternoon and will be bordering far western counties
on Wednesday. Most of the lift from the upper low will remain well
north of the area through midweek and convective development will
largely depend upon convergence along and ahead of the surface
trough/dryline. Could see isolated convection develop across far
northwest counties Tuesday afternoon but the better opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of a Cross Plains to Sonora
line.

Models continue to show a deeper and more amplified upper trough
developing across the Rockies on Wednesday, as a strong short wave
dives southeast from the Pacific Northwest. This system will
enter the Plains Wednesday night and will send a cold front south
across the area Thursday and Thursday night. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across eastern and southeast
counties Thursday and Thursday night as the front encounters
better low level moisture. The front will usher in dry and cooler
weather Friday into next weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  65  86  66  89 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  85  64  85  65  90 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  84  62  86  64  89 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24













000
FXUS64 KSJT 280451
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Plan for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. The NAM
and GFS do not agree well regarding stratus development later
tonight. As is usually the case, the NAM is more aggressive with
MVFR ceilings. Confidence is just not high enough this cycle to
introduce MVFR ceilings into any of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Models
this cycle continue to present lowered confidence for stratus
return overnight. Thus, continuing VFR terminals this cycle
appears reasonable.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Sunday/

Upper ridge will build over Texas through tomorrow with dry
conditions prevailing over the forecast area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower 60s with highs Sunday afternoon in
the low to mid 80s. Winds will be generally light southeasterly.

LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Monday/

Rain chances will be on the increase by mid week. PoPs were
inserted into the forecast for the Tuesday afternoon through early
Friday morning time frame. A strong upper-level low is expected
to be centered over east central Nevada Sunday evening. This low
will eject northeast into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. A
dryline will extend south across the eastern Panhandle to near
Fort Stockton. The departing system will also tap into some upper-
level moisture streaming northeast from Tropical Storm Rachel,
which will be located southwest of Baja California.

A secondary and stronger piece of energy will enter the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, and start to round the base of the trough by
Thursday. This secondary piece of energy, along with continued
moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to a more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  84  65  87  66 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  60  83  64  86  66 /  10   5  10   5  10
Junction  60  83  63  87  64 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber
Short-term: 15
Long-term: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 280451
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Plan for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. The NAM
and GFS do not agree well regarding stratus development later
tonight. As is usually the case, the NAM is more aggressive with
MVFR ceilings. Confidence is just not high enough this cycle to
introduce MVFR ceilings into any of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Models
this cycle continue to present lowered confidence for stratus
return overnight. Thus, continuing VFR terminals this cycle
appears reasonable.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Sunday/

Upper ridge will build over Texas through tomorrow with dry
conditions prevailing over the forecast area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower 60s with highs Sunday afternoon in
the low to mid 80s. Winds will be generally light southeasterly.

LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Monday/

Rain chances will be on the increase by mid week. PoPs were
inserted into the forecast for the Tuesday afternoon through early
Friday morning time frame. A strong upper-level low is expected
to be centered over east central Nevada Sunday evening. This low
will eject northeast into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. A
dryline will extend south across the eastern Panhandle to near
Fort Stockton. The departing system will also tap into some upper-
level moisture streaming northeast from Tropical Storm Rachel,
which will be located southwest of Baja California.

A secondary and stronger piece of energy will enter the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, and start to round the base of the trough by
Thursday. This secondary piece of energy, along with continued
moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to a more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  84  65  87  66 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  60  83  64  86  66 /  10   5  10   5  10
Junction  60  83  63  87  64 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber
Short-term: 15
Long-term: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272343
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Models
this cycle continue to present lowered confidence for stratus
return overnight. Thus, continuing VFR terminals this cycle
appears reasonable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Sunday/

Upper ridge will build over Texas through tomorrow with dry
conditions prevailing over the forecast area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower 60s with highs Sunday afternoon in
the low to mid 80s. Winds will be generally light southeasterly.

LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Monday/

Rain chances will be on the increase by mid week. PoPs were
inserted into the forecast for the Tuesday afternoon through early
Friday morning time frame. A strong upper-level low is expected
to be centered over east central Nevada Sunday evening. This low
will eject northeast into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. A
dryline will extend south across the eastern Panhandle to near
Fort Stockton. The departing system will also tap into some upper-
level moisture streaming northeast from Tropical Storm Rachel,
which will be located southwest of Baja California.

A secondary and stronger piece of energy will enter the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, and start to round the base of the trough by
Thursday. This secondary piece of energy, along with continued
moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to a more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  84  65  87  66 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  60  83  64  86  66 /  10   5  10   5  10
Junction  60  83  63  87  64 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber
Short-term: 15
Long-term: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272343
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Models
this cycle continue to present lowered confidence for stratus
return overnight. Thus, continuing VFR terminals this cycle
appears reasonable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Sunday/

Upper ridge will build over Texas through tomorrow with dry
conditions prevailing over the forecast area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower 60s with highs Sunday afternoon in
the low to mid 80s. Winds will be generally light southeasterly.

LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Monday/

Rain chances will be on the increase by mid week. PoPs were
inserted into the forecast for the Tuesday afternoon through early
Friday morning time frame. A strong upper-level low is expected
to be centered over east central Nevada Sunday evening. This low
will eject northeast into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. A
dryline will extend south across the eastern Panhandle to near
Fort Stockton. The departing system will also tap into some upper-
level moisture streaming northeast from Tropical Storm Rachel,
which will be located southwest of Baja California.

A secondary and stronger piece of energy will enter the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday, and start to round the base of the trough by
Thursday. This secondary piece of energy, along with continued
moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico, will lead to a more
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  84  65  87  66 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  60  83  64  86  66 /  10   5  10   5  10
Junction  60  83  63  87  64 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber
Short-term: 15
Long-term: Doll









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