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000
FXUS64 KSJT 280442
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Thursday afternoon. The isolated showers and storms that
developed earlier this afternoon have long since dissipated, but
should see a repeat of isolated convection for Thursday afternoon
and evening. May be a little more than just isolated across the
Big Country, and with that in mind, will keep the VCTS mention
already in the forecast. Elsewhere, odds of one of these storms
near a site just too small to mention at this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly Thursday
afternoon west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line. Have
added a VCTS to the KABI terminal after 21Z Thursday, with no
mention of thunder at other terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 280442
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Thursday afternoon. The isolated showers and storms that
developed earlier this afternoon have long since dissipated, but
should see a repeat of isolated convection for Thursday afternoon
and evening. May be a little more than just isolated across the
Big Country, and with that in mind, will keep the VCTS mention
already in the forecast. Elsewhere, odds of one of these storms
near a site just too small to mention at this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly Thursday
afternoon west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line. Have
added a VCTS to the KABI terminal after 21Z Thursday, with no
mention of thunder at other terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272332
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly Thursday
afternoon west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line. Have
added a VCTS to the KABI terminal after 21Z Thursday, with no
mention of thunder at other terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272332
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly Thursday
afternoon west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line. Have
added a VCTS to the KABI terminal after 21Z Thursday, with no
mention of thunder at other terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 272223
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272223
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 272044
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  10  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  10  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 271817
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
117 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.
isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona to Throckmorton.
After midnight tonight, watch for isolated thunderstorms, mainly
northwest of a line from Ozona to Throckmorton.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours, with no significant aviation
concerns. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of a Brady to San Saba line...including KJCT airport.
However...will not include thunder or CB in the TAFS at this time
due to very limited coverage of storms. Winds should remain out of
the southeast at less than 20 kts.

08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  74  93  71 /  10  20  30  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  30
Junction  72  96  75  92  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 271817
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
117 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.
isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and southeast of a line from Ozona to Throckmorton.
After midnight tonight, watch for isolated thunderstorms, mainly
northwest of a line from Ozona to Throckmorton.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours, with no significant aviation
concerns. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of a Brady to San Saba line...including KJCT airport.
However...will not include thunder or CB in the TAFS at this time
due to very limited coverage of storms. Winds should remain out of
the southeast at less than 20 kts.

08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  74  93  71 /  10  20  30  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  30  30
Junction  72  96  75  92  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 271122
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours, with no significant aviation
concerns. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of a Brady to San Saba line...including KJCT airport.
However...will not include thunder or CB in the TAFS at this time
due to very limited coverage of storms. Winds should remain out of
the southeast at less than 20 kts.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  75  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  96  73  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
Junction  96  72  96  75  92 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 271122
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours, with no significant aviation
concerns. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of a Brady to San Saba line...including KJCT airport.
However...will not include thunder or CB in the TAFS at this time
due to very limited coverage of storms. Winds should remain out of
the southeast at less than 20 kts.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  75  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  96  73  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
Junction  96  72  96  75  92 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 270835
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  75  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  96  73  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
Junction  96  72  96  75  92 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 270835
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.

08

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
next week.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  75  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  96  73  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
Junction  96  72  96  75  92 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 270432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue. The isolated showers and storms we
saw earlier in the evening dissipated at sunset, leaving just a few
mid clouds in place. These should continue tonight, and then a
high based cu field will develop Wednesday afternoon at roughly
the same height. A few storms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but given the isolated nature and the chance
of any of them approaching a terminal site, will leave out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms
have developed late this afternoon and will continue until about
sunset before dissipating. So far, the only terminal that has seen
any of these showers close by has been Abilene, KABI, and have
included a VCSH for the next few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 270432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue. The isolated showers and storms we
saw earlier in the evening dissipated at sunset, leaving just a few
mid clouds in place. These should continue tonight, and then a
high based cu field will develop Wednesday afternoon at roughly
the same height. A few storms will again be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but given the isolated nature and the chance
of any of them approaching a terminal site, will leave out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms
have developed late this afternoon and will continue until about
sunset before dissipating. So far, the only terminal that has seen
any of these showers close by has been Abilene, KABI, and have
included a VCSH for the next few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 262338
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms
have developed late this afternoon and will continue until about
sunset before dissipating. So far, the only terminal that has seen
any of these showers close by has been Abilene, KABI, and have
included a VCSH for the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 262338
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms
have developed late this afternoon and will continue until about
sunset before dissipating. So far, the only terminal that has seen
any of these showers close by has been Abilene, KABI, and have
included a VCSH for the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 262047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /   5  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /   5  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /   5  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 262047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

With upper high pressure still in place over West Central Texas, the
forecast area will continue hot and dry through at least tomorrow
morning. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s. A tropical wave will move northwest over the
middle Texas Gulf coast by tomorrow morning with associated low
level moisture increasing over our southeastern counties. Have
increased the POPs over this area tomorrow afternoon with a lesser
chance of precipitation over our eastern counties further to the
north.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The potential for rain still looks somewhat promising for many of
the long-term periods. The GFS and ECMWF continue to bring an
upper trough across the Rockies and into the Plains later this
week. This cycle, the MOS guidance products these two models
generated were not as promising for rain chances Thursday through
Saturday, as in previous runs. However, respectable low-level
moisture and at least some upper-level forcing continues to
support chance POPs for much of West Central Texas for the
Thursday night through Friday night periods. With better moisture
and dynamics north, the Big Country looks best for rain chances.
Rain chances end Saturday night, as the upper trough moves east of
West Central Texas.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  75  95  73 /   5  10  10  20  30
San Angelo  73  97  73  95  73 /   5  10  10  20  30
Junction  72  97  72  94  72 /   5  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 261706
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
No significant aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Expect VFR
conditions to continue. Will see some afternoon cumulus around 6K
to 8K feet. Winds should remain mainly east to southeast at less
than 10 kts.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08











000
FXUS64 KSJT 261706
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
No significant aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Expect VFR
conditions to continue. Will see some afternoon cumulus around 6K
to 8K feet. Winds should remain mainly east to southeast at less
than 10 kts.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08










000
FXUS64 KSJT 261135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
No significant aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Expect VFR
conditions to continue. Will see some afternoon cumulus around 6K
to 8K feet. Winds should remain mainly east to southeast at less
than 10 kts.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08









000
FXUS64 KSJT 261135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
No significant aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Expect VFR
conditions to continue. Will see some afternoon cumulus around 6K
to 8K feet. Winds should remain mainly east to southeast at less
than 10 kts.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08








000
FXUS64 KSJT 260822
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 260822
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge across north
and west Texas, with a trough heading eastward across the
southwestern US and a weak tropical upper level low heading
westward across the Upper Texas Coast. West Central Texas will
remain between these two systems for today, with hot and dry
weather continuing for one more day. Will see increasing moisture
as the tropical wave continues to head westward toward southwest
Texas, with a little more cumulus cloud development for this
afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Hill Country...but they will likely remain just
south and east of the forecast area. Went a degree or two cooler
with highs today and just slightly warmer for lows tonight due to
increasing moisture and cloud cover.

08

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The mid-level cyclone over the over the central Gulf coast will
continue to migrate to the west in the near term, stalling over
south TX tomorrow. A wave of enhanced moisture will move into the
area Wednesday afternoon, pushing precipitable water values up
above 1.6 inches. With temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and
little to no cap, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated, mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo. We could see
activity develop a bit farther west, but areal coverage should be
limited. A non- trivial microburst potential will exist but the
primary hazard will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any
convection that develops is expected to weaken by sunset as
surface heating wanes. However, the flow aloft will become more
westerly late Wednesday as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west. With thunderstorms expected to our west during the
afternoon and evening hours, a few may drift into the western
zones after midnight. Thus, a slight chance of precipitation was
maintained generally west of a Haskell, to Robert Lee, to
Sheffield line.

On Thursday, upper-level forcing will be increasing across the
region as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves across the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement with the
shortwave trough, moving it slowly across the region. Precipitable
water values are not expected to be anomalously high for late
August, but are progged to run generally at or above 1.5 inches
Thursday into the day Saturday. This will provide ample moisture
for convective development across the area. The models (excluding
the GFS) are depicting a surface trough extending from western OK,
southwest toward the Big Bend by Thursday afternoon. The
combination of this surface boundary, synoptic scale ascent, and
abundant moisture should support scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which are expected to move into West Central TX
during the afternoon and overnight hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
Friday into Saturday as this surface boundary moves slowly east,
interacting with the moist, unstable airmass in place across the
region. Total basin average precipitation amounts are expected to
remain less than 1 inch, but in general, the greatest rainfall
amounts are anticipated over the Big Country, diminishing to less
than 1/4 inch over the Hill Country. With enhanced cloud cover and
scattered convection, max temps were lowered into the low/mid 90s
Friday and Saturday.

By Sunday, the upper-level trough is progged to be far enough to
the east to not be a factor in our weather across West Central
TX. However, we will see another trough, much broader than its
predecessor, digging over the western CONUS. The 00z GFS and ECMWF
are in fair agreement with the placement and strength of this
trough by early next week, depicting westerly flow aloft over the
southern and central Rockies. This should enhance lee
cyclogenesis, increasing southerly winds. Heights at 500mb look to
remain at or below 591 dam, suggesting surface temps near climo.
The forecast remains dry Sunday and Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  98  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
San Angelo  98  73  97  74  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Junction  96  72  96  73  96 /   5   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 260431 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue overnight through Tuesday. Some
high cloudiness is currently overspreading West Central Texas,
but will thin out by Tuesday morning. A scattered mid-level
based cumulus field is once again expected to develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will veer to south
overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back to the east-
southeast during the afternoon and evening, with speeds in
the range of 6-12 kts.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue tonight through Tuesday. Some high
cloudiness will overspread West Central Texas later this evening
and early tonight, thinning out by Tuesday morning. A scattered
mid-level based cumulus field should once again develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will decrease late this
evening, with light south winds expected overnight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will back to the east-southeast during the
afternoon, with speeds at 5-10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 260431 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue overnight through Tuesday. Some
high cloudiness is currently overspreading West Central Texas,
but will thin out by Tuesday morning. A scattered mid-level
based cumulus field is once again expected to develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will veer to south
overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back to the east-
southeast during the afternoon and evening, with speeds in
the range of 6-12 kts.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue tonight through Tuesday. Some high
cloudiness will overspread West Central Texas later this evening
and early tonight, thinning out by Tuesday morning. A scattered
mid-level based cumulus field should once again develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will decrease late this
evening, with light south winds expected overnight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will back to the east-southeast during the
afternoon, with speeds at 5-10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 252316 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue tonight through Tuesday. Some high
cloudiness will overspread West Central Texas later this evening
and early tonight, thinning out by Tuesday morning. A scattered
mid-level based cumulus field should once again develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will decrease late this
evening, with light south winds expected overnight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will back to the east-southeast during the
afternoon, with speeds at 5-10 kts.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 252316 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue tonight through Tuesday. Some high
cloudiness will overspread West Central Texas later this evening
and early tonight, thinning out by Tuesday morning. A scattered
mid-level based cumulus field should once again develop by
Tuesday afternoon. Southeast winds will decrease late this
evening, with light south winds expected overnight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will back to the east-southeast during the
afternoon, with speeds at 5-10 kts.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 252045
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 252045
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Upper level high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
tomorrow with hot and dry weather continuing. Morning lows will be
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Rain chances, although on the lower end of the percentage scale,
remain in the forecast for mid week into the start of next
weekend. Models continue to shift the dominate high pressure dome
east over the next several days. The GFS and ECMWF bring a 500mb
trough into the four corners region by 00Z Thursday (Wednesday
evening). The GFS creates spotty QPF areas, mainly over our
northern counties, on Thursday; the ECMWF is more aggressive and
has a well developed QPF area over all of West Texas, including
our western counties, on Thursday. As the 500mb through axis
shifts out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains, both models
generate an almost-continuous QPF area over West Central Texas,
for Thursday night. By Friday evening, these models begin to diverge,
as the GFS moves the 500mb trough axis east across the Great
Plains, and the ECMWF holds the trough axis more over the Texas
panhandle. Clearly, the ECMWF is more aggressive with QPF, for the
Friday night and Saturday periods than the GFS. Given the timing
and location uncertainty, continuing mainly slight chance PoPs,
for the Thursday through Saturday periods, looks best at this
time.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  98  73  96  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  71  98  73  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  98  71  98  73 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 251701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with generally light southerly winds will continue at
all terminals through the next 24 hours.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 251701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with generally light southerly winds will continue at
all terminals through the next 24 hours.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 251121
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 251121
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 250915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 250915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
415 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high pressure ridge extended from Southern
Illinois southwest into Texas. However, there was a little weather
going on this morning across extreme northwest Texas. An MCV was
producing a few thunderstorms between Childress and Lubbock. This
activity should remain northwest of our area through the morning
hours.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure will remain parked over the
middle Mississippi Valley early this week. Expect more of the same
for West Central Texas with another hot and dry day in store.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail the next 24 hours, Highs
today will be between 95 and 102 degrees with overnight lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

21

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, two upper level lows are affecting the northern
Rockies, and Pacific northwest as they rotate through a broader
trough across the western U. S. An upper level ridge continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, including Texas. An upper
level TUTT low is moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico
resulting in scattered thunderstorms from south of New Orleans
into the eastern Gulf.

As was mentioned in yesterday`s AFD, models have continued to
come together on a solution for later in the week. The GFS has
trended more towards the ECMWF and Canadian output. With the
consistency of the EC in this solution, confidence is growing in
that outcome. The second upper level low moving through the
western trough over Oregon is expected to continue digging south
into the Great Basin area before moving slowly east across Utah
and Colorado. As the low approaches the area early in the week,
moisture will continue to be drawn northward ahead of the feature.
All models have backed off the idea of a cold front moving through
our CWA, which makes sense, considering we will be under southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low for an extended period of time. This
will serve to keep lee troughing in place, which would keep our
surface winds out of the south. However, shortwave energy will
rotate around the low and across our region in southwest flow, and
will interact with a good low level moisture and heating to give
the area a chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday
through Saturday. With the expected slowing of the upper level low,
have kept the trend of starting PoPs for our area a little later
than previously thought, and have the best chances from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning.

Expect continued slightly warmer than normal temperatures into the
middle of the week before cooling to near normal as rain chances
and cloud cover increase late in the week and weekend.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  75  99  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  99  73  99  73  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
Junction  96  71  98  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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