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000
FXUS64 KSJT 261133
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions continue across West Central Texas, in the wake of
last nights convection. Still a few showers around, with a few
approaching the KABI terminal location. these shouldn`t persist
through about mid morning before dissipating. More storms are
expected to develop by late afternoon and become more widespread
during the evening hours. Hard to pin down the exact timing, so
have used a VCTS for much of the time period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

West Central Texas is in an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms
today and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado are possible this afternoon and tonight. Localized
flooding is also possible tonight.

The upper low over Southern California will move northeast into
Colorado tonight. This will bring large scale lift and upper short
waves to West Central Texas. The atmosphere is very unstable in
West Central Texas, with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000 J/G. Strong 0-6KM
Bulk shears of 45 to 50 KTS will also be present. Storms are
expected to develop over Crockett County, Concho Valley, and
Western Big Country mid afternoon 2-3 PM, then move eastward.
The severe threat will continue into the evening, with the main
threat transitioning to localized flooding overnight.

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Wednesday)

Storms will be ongoing Friday morning in eastern sections...along
east of Haskell...Abilene...San Angelo...Sonora line. By
afternoon, storms should be east of a Baird to Junction line as a
dryline moves through. There will remain the potential for a
severe thunderstorms, but coverage will be more isolated.

There is respite in shower and thunderstorm potential Friday
night and Saturday morning, with rain chances returning Saturday
afternoon as another upper trough develops over the Southwestern
United States. The upper trough/low becomes more or less
stationary over Arizona and New Mexico, sending weak disturbances
over West Central Texas into the middle of next week. The
atmosphere will remain unstable over West Central Texas, so the
potential for severe weather will continue each day, beginning
Sunday. Clouds and storms will keep highs next week in the mid and
upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  68  86  63 /  50  60  30  10
San Angelo  88  69  91  64 /  50  70  20   5
Junction  86  69  89  67 /  60  70  40  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 260421
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

All terminals will be VFR through the night with the southeastern
terminals degrading to MVFR by mid-morning. Winds will be
southerly gusting 20-25 knots by noon at all terminals. An upper
level storm system will move through the area through the
afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorms expected at all
terminals.Some thunderstorms are expected to be severe with large
hail and damaging winds. Reduced visibilities and MVFR ceilings
will accompany the storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 608 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

All terminals are VFR early this evening. There is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight, mainly for
sites south of I-20, and have kept the VCTS for the evening
hours. MVFR CIGs should make their way back into the southern
sites after 06Z tonight. MVFR ceilings should continue through the
morning hours at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The dryline has mixed east to a line from near Childress to east of
Sweetwater, then bends back to the southwest to east of Sterling
City and Big Lake. However, it appears to have lost momentum at this
time, and is not progressing much farther, and will certainly begin
retreating in the next few hours. As a matter of fact, radar imagery
indicates a north/northwesterly movement in southern
Irion/Reagan/Upton counties as of 3 PM. With the cap likely
weakening, and very unstable air in place, have broadened slight
chance thunderstorm chances north to areas generally along and east
of a Throckmorton, to Abilene, to San Angelo line for this
afternoon. However, not convinced that we will see initiation in our
area. Although we are very unstable, we do think any coverage of
showers/storms will be isolated in our area. And while there is a
Slight Risk for severe weather in our area, due to the lack of
coverage and lack of confidence in development, have not inserted
severe wording into grids. We also have a lot of moisture to work
with, so if thunderstorms can develop along/east of the dryline,
they will likely be able to produce locally heavy rainfall.

Have not made much change to the overnight precipitation chances as
an upper level shortwave is still expected to move across the area,
interacting with elevated instability and increasing chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 00Z this evening. We will
continue to have copious amounts of moisture to work with, resulting
in the chance for locally heavy rainfall, and localized flooding
with any thunderstorms tonight. In addition, the Slight Risk will
also continue through the overnight hours with the main hazards
being large hail and dangerous lightning.

Tomorrow, as the main upper level low now over southern California
approaches the area, large-scale lift will increase, and embedded
shortwave energy will likely move across the area in southwest flow.
As the dryline mixes east into the area, we should see better
chances than today for scattered thunderstorms developing across our
western counties, then moving northeast. With ample instability, and
increasing deep layer shear, severe thunderstorms will again be
possible with any storms that develop. The main hazards will
continue to be large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, and
an isolated tornado or two.

Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 70s, and highs
tomorrow will be similar today in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night and Friday)

Thunderstorms are a good bet Thursday night into Friday morning
across much of West Central Texas. Also. severe weather is possible
Thursday evening. The combination of increasing large scale ascent
and a dryline just west of the area will provide focus for
thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday morning. Some storms may be
severe Thursday evening due to strong instability and 0-6KM shear of
40 to 45 knots. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds and an isolated tornado or two. Also, the rainfall amounts
from the models are looking kind of high. Local rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are not out of the question, especially across
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country as PW values will be
around 1.5 inches and surface dewpoints will remain around 70. The
heavy rainfall amounts may cause localize flooding. Most of the
convection should be over by Friday afternoon. Also, the dryline
will make progress east into the western half of the area Friday
afternoon. Highs will be mid 80s to lower 90s, possibly a few
degrees warmer across the western 1/3 of the area.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue across West Central Texas
due to an upper level west-southwest flow pattern(disturbance moving
through the flow) and a dryline remaining west of our area. Nothing
to unusual for the Memorial Day weekend. Mainly have chance Pops
going through much of this time period. Also, a few storms may be
severe mainly during the afternoon and evening due to strong
instability and some 0-6KM shear. Highs will be in the 80s with lows
in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  73  87  66 /  20  20  40  60
San Angelo  92  73  90  67 /  20  30  50  70
Junction  84  73  86  69 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 251738
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Most sites are now VFR early this afternoon, with KJCT likely to
become VFR within the next hour or so. There is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight, mainly for
sites south of I-20, and have kept the VCTS mentioned in the
previous set of TAFs for the evening hours. MVFR CIGs should make
their way back into the southern sites after 06Z tonight as well.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain southerly through
tonight with periodic gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low clouds continue across West Central Texas terminals,
with the best concentration along the I-10 corridor. Farther
north, high cloudiness has made it difficult for the MVFR cigs to
remain intact, but has also allowed some light fog to develop as
well. The fog and low clouds should lift this morning and leave
VFR conditions for much of the day. Isolated storms are possible
across the southern terminals this afternoon, but coverage should
increase overnight. A little early to pin down the exact timing,
so have used a VCTS at KSOA, KCT, KBBD (Sonora, Junction, and
Brady) which should see the best coverage after 06z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Today will be very much like yesterday across West Central Texas.
Unstable air mass is in place, but strong enough convective
inhibition to prevent much in the way of convection, even with a
potent dryline in place. Models continue to bring the dryline a
little too far east each day, so suspect the dryline will make it
into the western Concho Valley and western Big Country this
afternoon, but not very much farther than that. Models have also been
consistently too warm with afternoon temperatures in the muggy air
mass east of the dryline, so will undercut forecast highs a few
degrees. TTU WRF and HRRR do suggest that a weak shortwave will
begin to approach late this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
a few storms developing southwest of the area. These storms may make
it as far north as the I-10 corridor by late this afternoon, with
showers and thunderstorms spreading northeast across much of the
remainder of West Central Texas tonight. SPC Day One outlook
includes about the southern half of the area in a slight risk
tonight, as these storms spreading north finally tap into unstable
air mass across the area. Would not be surprised to see a few
elevated hailers tonight across the area mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Potential for severe weather exists Thursday into Friday morning.
Atmosphere will be very unstable with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG. Texas Tech WRF indicates a band of morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through, then a line of afternoon
dryline thunderstorms develops in the Eastern Permian Basin/Trans
Pecos. This line of storms moves east across West Central Texas
Mid/late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Eastern sections
may see ongoing thunderstorms into Friday morning.

Large hail and damaging winds possible, along with the potential
for tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night. Localized flooding
also possible. EC/GFS/Texas Tech WRF models indicate the heaviest
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches Thursday night from the Concho Valley
east to Coleman, Brownwood and Cross Plains as storms train along
the 700 mean wind flow. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms
Thursday for West Central Texas.

The next shower and thunderstorm development period is Sunday
into Tuesday, as another upper trough over the Southwest U.S
approaches with several shortwaves ahead of it. A weak cold front
Wednesday may continue to enhance thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  73  87  66 /  10  20  40  60
San Angelo  89  73  90  67 /  10  30  50  70
Junction  85  73  86  69 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 251133
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low clouds continue across West Central Texas terminals,
with the best concentration along the I-10 corridor. Farther
north, high cloudiness has made it difficult for the MVFR cigs to
remain intact, but has also allowed some light fog to develop as
well. The fog and low clouds should lift this morning and leave
VFR conditions for much of the day. Isolated storms are possible
across the southern terminals this afternoon, but coverage should
increase overnight. A little early to pin down the exact timing,
so have used a VCTS at KSOA, KCT, KBBD (Sonora, Junction, and
Brady) which should see the best coverage after 06z tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Today will be very much like yesterday across West Central Texas.
Unstable air mass is in place, but strong enough convective
inhibition to prevent much in the way of convection, even with a
potent dryline in place. Models continue to bring the dryline a
little too far east each day, so suspect the dryline will make it
into the western Concho Valley and western Big Country this
afternoon, but not very much farther than that. Models have also been
consistently too warm with afternoon temperatures in the muggy air
mass east of the dryline, so will undercut forecast highs a few
degrees. TTU WRF and HRRR do suggest that a weak shortwave will
begin to approach late this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
a few storms developing southwest of the area. These storms may make
it as far north as the I-10 corridor by late this afternoon, with
showers and thunderstorms spreading northeast across much of the
remainder of West Central Texas tonight. SPC Day One outlook
includes about the southern half of the area in a slight risk
tonight, as these storms spreading north finally tap into unstable
air mass across the area. Would not be surprised to see a few
elevated hailers tonight across the area mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Potential for severe weather exists Thursday into Friday morning.
Atmosphere will be very unstable with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG. Texas Tech WRF indicates a band of morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through, then a line of afternoon
dryline thunderstorms develops in the Eastern Permian Basin/Trans
Pecos. This line of storms moves east across West Central Texas
Mid/late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Eastern sections
may see ongoing thunderstorms into Friday morning.

Large hail and damaging winds possible, along with the potential
for tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night. Localized flooding
also possible. EC/GFS/Texas Tech WRF models indicate the heaviest
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches Thursday night from the Concho Valley
east to Coleman, Brownwood and Cross Plains as storms train along
the 700 mean wind flow. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms
Thursday for West Central Texas.

The next shower and thunderstorm development period is Sunday
into Tuesday, as another upper trough over the Southwest U.S
approaches with several shortwaves ahead of it. A weak cold front
Wednesday may continue to enhance thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  73  86  66 /  10  20  50  60
San Angelo  89  72  88  67 /  10  30  50  70
Junction  85  72  85  69 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 250910
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
410 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Today will be very much like yesterday across West Central Texas.
Unstable air mass is in place, but strong enough convective
inhibition to prevent much in the way of convection, even with a
potent dryline in place. Models continue to bring the dryline a
little too far east each day, so suspect the dryline will make it
into the western Concho Valley and western Big Country this
afternoon, but not very much farther than that. Models have also been
consistently too warm with afternoon temperatures in the muggy air
mass east of the dryline, so will undercut forecast highs a few
degrees. TTU WRF and HRRR do suggest that a weak shortwave will
begin to approach late this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
a few storms developing southwest of the area. These storms may make
it as far north as the I-10 corridor by late this afternoon, with
showers and thunderstorms spreading northeast across much of the
remainder of West Central Texas tonight. SPC Day One outlook
includes about the southern half of the area in a slight risk
tonight, as these storms spreading north finally tap into unstable
air mass across the area. Would not be surprised to see a few
elevated hailers tonight across the area mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Potential for severe weather exists Thursday into Friday morning.
Atmosphere will be very unstable with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG. Texas Tech WRF indicates a band of morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through, then a line of afternoon
dryline thunderstorms develops in the Eastern Permian Basin/Trans
Pecos. This line of storms moves east across West Central Texas
Mid/late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Eastern sections
may see ongoing thunderstorms into Friday morning.

Large hail and damaging winds possible, along with the potential
for tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night. Localized flooding
also possible. EC/GFS/Texas Tech WRF models indicate the heaviest
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches Thursday night from the Concho Valley
east to Coleman, Brownwood and Cross Plains as storms train along
the 700 mean wind flow. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms
Thursday for West Central Texas.

The next shower and thunderstorm development period is Sunday
into Tuesday, as another upper trough over the Southwest U.S
approaches with several shortwaves ahead of it. A weak cold front
Wednesday may continue to enhance thunderstorm development.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  89  73  86  66 /  10  20  50  60
San Angelo  89  72  88  67 /  10  30  50  70
Junction  85  72  85  69 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 250421
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus moving into the area tonight will lower ceilings at all
terminals to MVFR and occasional IFR. Ceilings will lift to VFR
by late morning to early afternoon. Upper disturbances moving
into the area this evening will bring a chance of thunderstorms
and MVFR ceilings to most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 925 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Removed POPs overnight.

DISCUSSION...
POPs were removed across the area for the remainder of the
night. The dryline continues to retreat westward this evening
across the Panhandle and far West Texas, with convective
inhibition (CINH) increasing. Thus, shower and thunderstorm
development is not expected for the rest of tonight. No other
changes were needed this update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Northern terminals will be VFR through the evening, then
degrading to MVFR around midnight and continuing through tomorrow
morning. The remaining terminals will remain MVFR through tomorrow
morning. All terminals will be VFR by tomorrow afternoon. The
chance of convective activity affecting any terminal through the
TAF period is low.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Low clouds have hung around most of the day with continued rich
moisture advecting northward over the CWA today. These low clouds
along with abundant high clouds moving across the area have kept our
temperatures generally in the 80s today. Although we are potentially
unstable, the limited warming due to clouds will likely negate much
opportunity to realize this CAPE in the form of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. However, will retain a sliver of Slight
Chance PoPs along our western border, near the dryline where any
thunderstorms would likely form if they could get going. Otherwise,
we can expect another warm, muggy night with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

For Wednesday, we will be mostly cloudy through the morning again as
low clouds fill in later tonight with continued southerly flow.
Expect another mainly quiet day as far as thunderstorm chances go.
Instability will be readily, but much like today we will likely
remain `capped` through the afternoon hours. A shortwave
trough/speed max aloft is expected to approach our southwestern
counties by early evening, resulting in possible precipitation after
00Z. However, if the feature moves in a little faster, we could see
this activity initiate a little earlier, so have introduced a slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms generally south of I-10 in Crockett
and Sutton counties during the afternoon hours.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Rain chances will increase Wednesday night across the southern half
of our area. The models indicate an embedded disturbance in
southwest flow aloft entering our area with low-level jet
developing, and with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches.

The upper low over north-central Arizona Thursday morning will lift
northeast into southeastern Colorado Thursday night, and into
northwestern Kansas on Friday. A trailing trough will extend south
from this low, along the Texas/New Mexico border on Friday. With
associated large scale lift and ample moisture, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be increased Thursday and especially
Thursday night, continuing early Friday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, and severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish
from the west during the day Friday, as the dryline advances east
into our area. The low-level intrusion of drier air will be short-
lived however, as the dryline retreats west of our area Friday
night.

An unsettled pattern is indicated for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend. The aforementioned upper low will open into a trough and
lift northeast across the Central Plains early Saturday morning.
The flow aloft will again become southwest across our area, as
another (albeit weaker) trough develops across the western CONUS.
The southern portion of the trough will move slowly east to the
Arizona/New Mexico border on Tuesday, and a few embedded
disturbances aloft could enter our area in the southwest flow ahead
of the main trough. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in
place, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Not much change is expected with temperatures across our area
Thursday through next Tuesday. The relatively warmer days look to be
Friday and Saturday, when highs are expected to be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Will need to monitor for Friday, when temperatures
could be warmer than currently forecast with the dryline intrusion
and decreasing cloud cover. Daily lows are expected to be mostly in
the mid to upper 60s.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  74  92  73 /  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  90  75  94  72 /  20  10  10  30
Junction  85  75  90  72 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 250225 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
925 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Removed POPs overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POPs were removed across the area for the remainder of the
night. The dryline continues to retreat westward this evening
across the Panhandle and far West Texas, with convective
inhibition (CINH) increasing. Thus, shower and thunderstorm
development is not expected for the rest of tonight. No other
changes were needed this update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Northern terminals will be VFR through the evening, then
degrading to MVFR around midnight and continuing through tomorrow
morning. The remaining terminals will remain MVFR through tomorrow
morning. All terminals will be VFR by tomorrow afternoon. The
chance of convective activity affecting any terminal through the
TAF period is low.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Low clouds have hung around most of the day with continued rich
moisture advecting northward over the CWA today. These low clouds
along with abundant high clouds moving across the area have kept our
temperatures generally in the 80s today. Although we are potentially
unstable, the limited warming due to clouds will likely negate much
opportunity to realize this CAPE in the form of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. However, will retain a sliver of Slight
Chance PoPs along our western border, near the dryline where any
thunderstorms would likely form if they could get going. Otherwise,
we can expect another warm, muggy night with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

For Wednesday, we will be mostly cloudy through the morning again as
low clouds fill in later tonight with continued southerly flow.
Expect another mainly quiet day as far as thunderstorm chances go.
Instability will be readily, but much like today we will likely
remain `capped` through the afternoon hours. A shortwave
trough/speed max aloft is expected to approach our southwestern
counties by early evening, resulting in possible precipitation after
00Z. However, if the feature moves in a little faster, we could see
this activity initiate a little earlier, so have introduced a slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms generally south of I-10 in Crockett
and Sutton counties during the afternoon hours.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Rain chances will increase Wednesday night across the southern half
of our area. The models indicate an embedded disturbance in
southwest flow aloft entering our area with low-level jet
developing, and with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches.

The upper low over north-central Arizona Thursday morning will lift
northeast into southeastern Colorado Thursday night, and into
northwestern Kansas on Friday. A trailing trough will extend south
from this low, along the Texas/New Mexico border on Friday. With
associated large scale lift and ample moisture, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be increased Thursday and especially
Thursday night, continuing early Friday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, and severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish
from the west during the day Friday, as the dryline advances east
into our area. The low-level intrusion of drier air will be short-
lived however, as the dryline retreats west of our area Friday
night.

An unsettled pattern is indicated for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend. The aforementioned upper low will open into a trough and
lift northeast across the Central Plains early Saturday morning.
The flow aloft will again become southwest across our area, as
another (albeit weaker) trough develops across the western CONUS.
The southern portion of the trough will move slowly east to the
Arizona/New Mexico border on Tuesday, and a few embedded
disturbances aloft could enter our area in the southwest flow ahead
of the main trough. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in
place, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Not much change is expected with temperatures across our area
Thursday through next Tuesday. The relatively warmer days look to be
Friday and Saturday, when highs are expected to be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Will need to monitor for Friday, when temperatures
could be warmer than currently forecast with the dryline intrusion
and decreasing cloud cover. Daily lows are expected to be mostly in
the mid to upper 60s.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  73  87 /  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  75  94  72  88 /  10  10  30  40
Junction  75  90  72  86 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 242314
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Northern terminals will be VFR through the evening, then
degrading to MVFR around midnight and continuing through tomorrow
morning. The remaining terminals will remain MVFR through tomorrow
morning. All terminals will be VFR by tomorrow afternoon. The
chance of convective activity affecting any terminal through the
TAF period is low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Low clouds have hung around most of the day with continued rich
moisture advecting northward over the CWA today. These low clouds
along with abundant high clouds moving across the area have kept our
temperatures generally in the 80s today. Although we are potentially
unstable, the limited warming due to clouds will likely negate much
opportunity to realize this CAPE in the form of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. However, will retain a sliver of Slight
Chance PoPs along our western border, near the dryline where any
thunderstorms would likely form if they could get going. Otherwise,
we can expect another warm, muggy night with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

For Wednesday, we will be mostly cloudy through the morning again as
low clouds fill in later tonight with continued southerly flow.
Expect another mainly quiet day as far as thunderstorm chances go.
Instability will be readily, but much like today we will likely
remain `capped` through the afternoon hours. A shortwave
trough/speed max aloft is expected to approach our southwestern
counties by early evening, resulting in possible precipitation after
00Z. However, if the feature moves in a little faster, we could see
this activity initiate a little earlier, so have introduced a slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms generally south of I-10 in Crockett
and Sutton counties during the afternoon hours.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Rain chances will increase Wednesday night across the southern half
of our area. The models indicate an embedded disturbance in
southwest flow aloft entering our area with low-level jet
developing, and with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches.

The upper low over north-central Arizona Thursday morning will lift
northeast into southeastern Colorado Thursday night, and into
northwestern Kansas on Friday. A trailing trough will extend south
from this low, along the Texas/New Mexico border on Friday. With
associated large scale lift and ample moisture, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be increased Thursday and especially
Thursday night, continuing early Friday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, and severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain chances will diminish
from the west during the day Friday, as the dryline advances east
into our area. The low-level intrusion of drier air will be short-
lived however, as the dryline retreats west of our area Friday
night.

An unsettled pattern is indicated for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend. The aforementioned upper low will open into a trough and
lift northeast across the Central Plains early Saturday morning.
The flow aloft will again become southwest across our area, as
another (albeit weaker) trough develops across the western CONUS.
The southern portion of the trough will move slowly east to the
Arizona/New Mexico border on Tuesday, and a few embedded
disturbances aloft could enter our area in the southwest flow ahead
of the main trough. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in
place, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Not much change is expected with temperatures across our area
Thursday through next Tuesday. The relatively warmer days look to be
Friday and Saturday, when highs are expected to be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Will need to monitor for Friday, when temperatures
could be warmer than currently forecast with the dryline intrusion
and decreasing cloud cover. Daily lows are expected to be mostly in
the mid to upper 60s.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  73  87 /  20  10  20  40
San Angelo  75  94  72  88 /  10  10  30  40
Junction  75  90  72  86 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240902
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very unstable air mass will remain in place across West Central
Texas today, but cap is in place as well. With no real upper
support, any chance of convection will likely be confined to the
area very near the dryline, where convergence might make an isolated
storm possible. If a storm can develop, will certainly have the
potential of reaching severe levels given the high instability.
Otherwise, conditions today will be very much like we saw on Monday,
with morning low clouds clearing and leaving partly cloudy skies.
Afternoon highs reaching the mid and upper 80s for most locations.
Dewpoints not dropping much below 70 degrees at night for most
areas, so overnight lows in the low to mid 70s looks on target
as well.

07

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

Moist unstable air will remain over West Central Texas into next
week. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
night into Friday... as an upper low moves into the 4 corners
region before lifting northeast into the Central Plains. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday
night, but storm chances again increase Sunday afternoon into
Monday as another series of upper shortwaves move through.

Although the atmosphere is capped at times, especially Wednesday,
instability remains high into next week, with GFS SB CAPES of
3000-4000 J/KG, and sometimes close to 5000 J/KG. Storms that
break the CAP could become severe. SPC has a marginal risk for
Wednesday and an enhanced risk for Thursday. Large hail and
damaging winds possible. Thursday/Thursday evening could also see
a threat for tornadoes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  73  91  72 /  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  90  73  93  72 /  20  10  10  30
Junction  85  73  90  72 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240424
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1124 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated late
this evening. Although an isolated thunderstorms is possible
overnight, confidence is too low to include in the current TAF
package. MVFR ceilings will return to all sites after midnight,
with VFR ceilings returning by late morning/early afternoon
Tuesday. Expect southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots overnight,
becoming south Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 912 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
To cancel the Tornado Watch

DISCUSSION...
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to our west has
weakened or dissipated late this evening, so the Tornado Watch was
canceled early. Besides some minor changes to PoPs, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are occurring across West
Texas and are forecast to slowly move east this evening. A few of
these storms may affect the TAF sites this evening, with the best
chance at KSOA and KSJT. Heavy rainfall, large hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. Stratus is
forecast to develop at all sites this evening, resulting in MVFR
ceilings through late morning/early afternoon. Expect southeast
wind of 6 to 12 knots overnight, becoming south Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

SHORT TERM
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A Tornado Watch has been issued for areas generally west of a
Haskell, to Abilene, to San Angelo, to Ozona line through 10 PM
tonight.

As of 3 PM, isolated to scattered thunderstorms had developed west
of our CWA over the Stockton Plateau. These storms will continue to
develop, eventually moving east/northeast into our western counties
later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE values are greater than
3000 J/kg along and west of an Abilene to Junction line, with
convective inhibition eroding along our western CWA boundary.
A subtle shortwave trough, and associated upper level jet streak are
approaching the area from northern Mexico, and 0-6km shear values
generally range from 35 to 50 knots. These features, along with rich
moisture/strong instability, is expected to yield storms quickly
capable of becoming severe once they get going. The main hazard with
these storms will be very large hail, although an isolated tornado
or two cannot be ruled out, and severe winds gusts will also be
possible.

Storms are expected to make it at least as far east as an Abilene to
Sonora line. By the time they make it this far east, it will likely
be well after sunset, and instability is expected to be waning,
which will probably cause storms to dissipate.

For Tuesday, we will once again have a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms to develop, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Chances appear better for areas generally along I-20 and north where
better upper level forcing will be available. However, the dryline
is expected to again approach our area from the west, creating the
possibility of isolated to scattered storms along our western
boundary during the mid to late afternoon hours. Although chances
are better farther north for severe weather, any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe.

Expect lows tonight in the upper 60s/low 70s, and highs Tuesday
topping out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)

Our area will remain in southwest flow aloft Wednesday into
Thursday, An upper trough from the Desert Southwest will lift
northeast across the southern/central Rockies on Thursday, and into
the southern and central Plains Thursday night. We are keeping Pops
below 20 percent during the day Wednesday, with the anticipation
that mid-level cap will be a little too strong despite strong
instability. The dryline should mix east and approach our far
western counties during the late afternoon, so this will bear
watching.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be increased Thursday
into Friday. Our area will have upper support from the
aforementioned upper trough lifting out, along with moist and very
unstable air ahead of an eastward advancing dryline. After this
trough lifts out, southwest flow is progged to redevelop as another
trough develops over the western CONUS. Our area may have an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday of
the Memorial Day holiday weekend, with indications of additional
embedded shortwaves entering our area and little change in the
airmass.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  88  72  92 /  30  20  20  10
San Angelo  71  89  72  92 /  30  20  10  10
Junction  71  87  71  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 232032
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
332 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A Tornado Watch has been issued for areas generally west of a
Haskell, to Abilene, to San Angelo, to Ozona line through 10 PM
tonight.

As of 3 PM, isolated to scattered thunderstorms had developed west
of our CWA over the Stockton Plateau. These storms will continue to
develop, eventually moving east/northeast into our western counties
later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE values are greater than
3000 J/kg along and west of an Abilene to Junction line, with
convective inhibition eroding along our western CWA boundary.
A subtle shortwave trough, and associated upper level jet streak are
approaching the area from northern Mexico, and 0-6km shear values
generally range from 35 to 50 knots. These features, along with rich
moisture/strong instability, is expected to yield storms quickly
capable of becoming severe once they get going. The main hazard with
these storms will be very large hail, although an isolated tornado
or two cannot be ruled out, and severe winds gusts will also be
possible.

Storms are expected to make it at least as far east as an Abilene to
Sonora line. By the time they make it this far east, it will likely
be well after sunset, and instability is expected to be waning,
which will probably cause storms to dissipate.

For Tuesday, we will once again have a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms to develop, mainly during the afternoon hours.
Chances appear better for areas generally along I-20 and north where
better upper level forcing will be available. However, the dryline
is expected to again approach our area from the west, creating the
possibility of isolated to scattered storms along our western
boundary during the mid to late afternoon hours. Although chances
are better farther north for severe weather, any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe.

Expect lows tonight in the upper 60s/low 70s, and highs Tuesday
topping out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)

Our area will remain in southwest flow aloft Wednesday into
Thursday, An upper trough from the Desert Southwest will lift
northeast across the southern/central Rockies on Thursday, and into
the southern and central Plains Thursday night. We are keeping Pops
below 20 percent during the day Wednesday, with the anticipation
that mid-level cap will be a little too strong despite strong
instability. The dryline should mix east and approach our far
western counties during the late afternoon, so this will bear
watching.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be increased Thursday
into Friday. Our area will have upper support from the
aforementioned upper trough lifting out, along with moist and very
unstable air ahead of an eastward advancing dryline. After this
trough lifts out, southwest flow is progged to redevelop as another
trough develops over the western CONUS. Our area may have an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday of
the Memorial Day holiday weekend, with indications of additional
embedded shortwaves entering our area and little change in the
airmass.

19

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  88  72  92 /  30  20  20  10
San Angelo  71  89  72  92 /  30  20  10  10
Junction  71  87  71  90 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





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