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000
FXUS64 KSJT 160832
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central Texas,
mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this morning.
As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that stretched
roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to near Lubbock.
This front is expected to stall near the Red River Valley later this
morning, before lifting back to the north later today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across the
area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern Arizona
on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the time it
moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical moisture will
continue to affect West Central Texas through the end of the week
and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances moving over the
area through this time period will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low continues to lift to
the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will push south through the
forecast area Saturday night, continuing rain chances over the
forecast area. By Sunday morning the position of the cold front is
expected to be over the southern CWA with rain chances limited to
that area. No rain is expected on Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through Sunday
with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees cooler, in
the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s should cool into
the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 160432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening but
will not include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in
timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next
24 hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the
area tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at
the KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon but will not
include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 160432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening but
will not include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in
timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next
24 hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the
area tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at
the KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon but will not
include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best clocalized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.Shance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for JT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 152324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 152324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 152044
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 152044
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 151800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible this
afternoon at KBBD and KABI and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours at both locations. Widespread stratus appears
unlikely late tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid
and high cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered
convection may develop on Tuesday but is expected to hold off until
after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Extensive mid and upper level cloud cover, combined with scattered
showers, has helped to keep stratus from developing at any of the
TAF sites this morning. Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
sites through this evening, along with light winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave trough moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  85  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  82  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 151800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible this
afternoon at KBBD and KABI and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours at both locations. Widespread stratus appears
unlikely late tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid
and high cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered
convection may develop on Tuesday but is expected to hold off until
after 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Extensive mid and upper level cloud cover, combined with scattered
showers, has helped to keep stratus from developing at any of the
TAF sites this morning. Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
sites through this evening, along with light winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave trough moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  85  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  82  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 151117
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Extensive mid and upper level cloud cover, combined with scattered
showers, has helped to keep stratus from developing at any of the
TAF sites this morning. Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
sites through this evening, along with light winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave trough moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  87  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  84  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 151117
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Extensive mid and upper level cloud cover, combined with scattered
showers, has helped to keep stratus from developing at any of the
TAF sites this morning. Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
sites through this evening, along with light winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave trough moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  87  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  84  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 150901
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave through moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  87  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  84  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 150901
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Abundant tropical moisture from Hurricane Odile is streaming
across northern Mexico and into West Texas. Light showers are
currently moving across parts of West Central Texas and more of
the same can be expected late this morning and this afternoon.
High resolution models indicate a weak short wave through moving
across the Northwest Hill Country later this morning, and another
moving across the Big Country later this afternoon/evening. Slight
chance PoPs were expanded to include all of the area, as an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The best chance
this afternoon will be across the Big Country, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Highs today will be a bit warmer
than what we say yesterday, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will move south through the Plains overnight, with
model differences in exactly how far south the front will make it.
The NAM continues to be the farthest south, bringing the front
into the northern Big Country Tuesday morning. The forecast was
trended closer to the NAM forecast, as convection along the front
should help to push it farther south than the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating. Chance PoPs were continued across the Big Country
overnight, with slight chance farther south. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Currently, one shortwave is exiting the area in weak west to
southwest flow. To our southwest Hurricane Odile is moving
north/northwest up the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Odile is
already being pulled into the Texas area, and the remnants from
Odile will continue to influence our weather over the next several
days. By Tuesday morning, Odile will still be over the Baja
Peninsula, but continuing to move north/northwest. In addition,
weak shortwave energy associated with the tropical cyclone will be
pulled into the westerlies north of the feature, and across our
area. The combination of tropical moisture, and weak shortwave
energy in our area will result in at least slight chance PoPs from
Tuesday into Thursday across much of west Texas. In addition, have
kept highs slightly cooler than MEX guidance throughout the
extended forecast due to the additional moisture/cloud cover and
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, the remnants of Odile will be moving away from
our area as a trough develops over the western CONUS, as another
trough moves across the northern Great Plains. A cold front is
expected to move into the area on Sunday following the northern
stream trough, bringing another chance for precipitation next
weekend into early next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  68  85  69  87 /  20  30  40  20  20
San Angelo  87  67  87  69  86 /  20  20  40  20  30
Junction  84  68  88  70  89 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 150440
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Light rain showers are currently moving across the Big Country and
KABI area...but not causing any significant aviation concerns. VFR
ceilings should continue for the next few hours...but seeing some
signs of low cloud development to the southeast of the area on
satellite. Will continue with VFR conditions for at least the next
few hours and delay low clouds to closer to sunrise. Expect clouds
to clear out by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect KSJT
and KBBD with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0Z and 6Z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/99/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 150440
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Light rain showers are currently moving across the Big Country and
KABI area...but not causing any significant aviation concerns. VFR
ceilings should continue for the next few hours...but seeing some
signs of low cloud development to the southeast of the area on
satellite. Will continue with VFR conditions for at least the next
few hours and delay low clouds to closer to sunrise. Expect clouds
to clear out by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect KSJT
and KBBD with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0Z and 6Z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 142331
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect KSJT
and KBBD with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0Z and 6Z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/99/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 142331
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect KSJT
and KBBD with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0Z and 6Z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 142101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 142101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
county warning area...Crockett county, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS SB CAPES increase to  200 to 600 J/KG. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and ECMWF bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
POPs going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the Plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  86  69  84  68 /  10  20  30  40  20
San Angelo  65  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  20  40  20
Junction  67  88  69  87  68 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 141748
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014



.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Stratus was breaking up rapidly at 1730Z across the CWA. KSJT and
KSOA may see another hour or two of MVFR CIGS. For tonight, expect
stratus to return late night at climatologically favorable times.
With warmer temperatures, CIGS should be MVFR rather than this
mornings IFR however. Southeast to south winds will prevail at less
than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed at all sites this morning.
Expect ceilings to gradually begin to lift by late morning, with
mostly VFR ceilings returning by 20z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today at KSOA and KSJT, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package. Light east winds will become south this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 141748
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014



.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Stratus was breaking up rapidly at 1730Z across the CWA. KSJT and
KSOA may see another hour or two of MVFR CIGS. For tonight, expect
stratus to return late night at climatologically favorable times.
With warmer temperatures, CIGS should be MVFR rather than this
mornings IFR however. Southeast to south winds will prevail at less
than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed at all sites this morning.
Expect ceilings to gradually begin to lift by late morning, with
mostly VFR ceilings returning by 20z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today at KSOA and KSJT, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package. Light east winds will become south this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 141101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed at all sites this morning.
Expect ceilings to gradually begin to lift by late morning, with
mostly VFR ceilings returning by 20z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today at KSOA and KSJT, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package. Light east winds will become south this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels








000
FXUS64 KSJT 141101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed at all sites this morning.
Expect ceilings to gradually begin to lift by late morning, with
mostly VFR ceilings returning by 20z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible today at KSOA and KSJT, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAF
package. Light east winds will become south this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 140917 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 140917 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible west of  a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with most
convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs today
will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks in the
cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb
into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will be near
seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 140910
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible east of Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with
most convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs
today will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks
in the cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures
to climb into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will
be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 140910
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West
Texas from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today,
scattered showers will be possible east of Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance across the northern
Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this evening, with
most convection remaining to the north and west of the area. Highs
today will be dependent on the extent of cloud cover. Some breaks
in the cloud cover this this afternoon should allow temperatures
to climb into the lower 80s at most locations. Overnight lows will
be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
/Monday through next Saturday/

By Monday, the previously mentioned shortwave will be moving east
away from west central Texas. In its wake, a weak cold front will
move into the OK/TX region Monday night. Models are having a hard
time resolving how far south this front will move. The NAM brings
the front entirely through our CWA while the GFS and ECMWF bring
it into our area, then shows it becoming diffuse across our area,
before lifting back to the north. In either case, there is at
least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
Tuesday associated with the front and low level moisture pooling.
Although upper level flow becomes more northwesterly during this
time period, it still remains rather weak (topping out at 15 knots
at 500mb in the ECMWF), so storm motions will be fairly slow, and
much of the thunderstorm placement will likely depend on outflow
boundary interaction. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding will be a concern. This is all dependent on whether
or not convection will initiate, which is still uncertain. Will
hang on to a slight chance for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Will continue the dry forecast from Wednesday night through the
end of the week as the upper level ridge re-establishes itself
across the southern plains. Late in the extended, another pattern
change is possible with an upper level trough breaking the ridge
down. This could mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms
from Saturday night into Sunday. Will up pops, but hold off on
introducing any weather just yet.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  66  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  30  40
San Angelo  82  64  87  70  85 /  20  10  20  20  40
Junction  82  67  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 140447
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1147 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

High clouds are causing some difficulty with seeing lower clouds
on satellite this evening. However, it does appear that MVFR
ceilings are making a return to the area from the south as cold
air remains entrenched near the surface. Will introduce MVFR
ceilings from south to north across TAF sites overnight and keep
ceilings in through early afternoon tomorrow. Should see a return to VFR
tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08








000
FXUS64 KSJT 140447
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1147 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

High clouds are causing some difficulty with seeing lower clouds
on satellite this evening. However, it does appear that MVFR
ceilings are making a return to the area from the south as cold
air remains entrenched near the surface. Will introduce MVFR
ceilings from south to north across TAF sites overnight and keep
ceilings in through early afternoon tomorrow. Should see a return to VFR
tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08









000
FXUS64 KSJT 132303
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the KABI terminal through
approx 12Z, at which time MVFR CIGS will develop and persist
through the morning and late afternoon. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGS will
prevail through the forecast period. Otherwise, look for light
winds to veer to the southeast through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18








000
FXUS64 KSJT 132303
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the KABI terminal through
approx 12Z, at which time MVFR CIGS will develop and persist
through the morning and late afternoon. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGS will
prevail through the forecast period. Otherwise, look for light
winds to veer to the southeast through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18









000
FXUS64 KSJT 132101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 132101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Mostly cloudy and cool tonight. However, despite a moist atmosphere,
little lift was indicated in the models, and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few areas of light rain or drizzle are possible however,
from the Concho Valley to the I-10 corridor into Sunday, as low/mid
level moisture flows north up from Mexico. Mainly trace amounts of
rainfall are anticipated. Winds tonight become southeast to south as
surface high pressure moves east. GFS MOS temperatures look good
tonight and Sunday with return of southerly advection.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The upper level pattern will transition to northwest flow aloft
across the Southern Plains for much of the extended period as an
upper level trough materializes across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging out west. A short wave will track southeast across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and
Monday and will send another cold front south across the Southern
Plains. The NAM and ECMWF models bring the front as a far south as
the Concho Valley and Heartland by early Tuesday, while the GFS
keeps the front north along the Red River. Will continue to lean
towards the NAM/EC solution and bring the front into northern
sections on Tuesday. Kept slight POPs in the forecast Sunday night
across western sections as models show a disturbance lifting
northeast from south Texas overnight. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Tuesday with the approaching front and developing
northwest flow aloft. Kept highest POPs across northern sections
Monday night with chance POPs areawide for Tuesday.

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop across southeast
sections Tuesday afternoon, otherwise a dry forecast is expected
through the end of the week, with near normal temperatures. The
GFS shows an upper trough moving across the Rockies next weekend,
with an associated cold front impacting the area by Sunday, while
the ECMWF maintains ridging across the Plains. Thus, due to low
model confidence, little change was made beyond next
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  82  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  40
San Angelo  56  83  65  88  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
Junction  60  83  66  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 131738
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1236 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Terminals have risen into MVFR over all but KBBD at 1730Z, and
KBBD should rise to MVFR around 20Z. MVFR CIGS should continue
into Sunday morning over most sites, although it is possible KABI
may break out to VFR early this evening. Northeast winds of 5 to
10 KTS will shift east to southeast and become light this
evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated to lower highs today.

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are slow to rise with clouds, mist and areas of
drizzle. Lowered highs in the lower and mid 60s across much of West
Central Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will prevail across West Central Texas
during the next 24 hours. There may be slight improvement to low
end VFR CIGS at the KABI terminal by late in the TAF
forecast(14/06Z). The winds will be northeast with a few gusts to
20 knots this morning. Also, a few showers are possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A strong cold front was located well south of West Central Texas
this morning. Temperatures are much cooler then 24 hours ago, with
readings in the 50s. Also, low clouds covered the entire area and
winds were north to northeast gusting to 25 mph. Not much on radar,
besides a few light showers across the southern part of the
CWFA.

For today, expect much cooler temperatures and a chance of showers
along the I-10 corridor. Low level CAA will continue along with
abundant low clouds. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70,
which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Scattered light showers are
expected across the southern 1/3 of the area due to some weak
ascent. Also, gusty north to northeast winds will continue through
the morning hours. For tonight, some low level moisture will remain
over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers
still possible along the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A steady warm up can be expected through early next week. After a
cool day today, warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday, with
most locations reaching the lower to mid 80s. These temperatures may
be a degree or two high, depending on the extent of cloud cover.
Models are still showing a disturbance moving around the western
periphery of an upper level ridge, centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley. This feature may result in isolated showers,
mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau on Sunday.

On Monday, an upper level trough will quickly track across the
Northern Plains, sending a cold front south to near the Red River
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this feature on Monday, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the area, and slight chance PoPs were retained for this period. The
front will likely continue to slowly progress south through the day
on Tuesday, but uncertainty remains on exactly how far south the
boundary makes it. The NAM is the most aggressive, bringing the
front to near Interstate 20 by 12z Tuesday. Given the expected
convection along the front, and the better handling on our latest
front, the forecast was sided closer to the faster NAM solution. The
best precipitation chances will be across the Big Country Monday
night, with better rain chances spreading into much of the rest of
West Central Texas during the day Tuesday. High temperatures on both
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 80s, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s. Drier conditions and above
normal temperatures are forecast from Wednesday through at least
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  59  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  63  59  83  66  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Junction  66  59  85  67  90 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 131738
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1236 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Terminals have risen into MVFR over all but KBBD at 1730Z, and
KBBD should rise to MVFR around 20Z. MVFR CIGS should continue
into Sunday morning over most sites, although it is possible KABI
may break out to VFR early this evening. Northeast winds of 5 to
10 KTS will shift east to southeast and become light this
evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated to lower highs today.

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are slow to rise with clouds, mist and areas of
drizzle. Lowered highs in the lower and mid 60s across much of West
Central Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will prevail across West Central Texas
during the next 24 hours. There may be slight improvement to low
end VFR CIGS at the KABI terminal by late in the TAF
forecast(14/06Z). The winds will be northeast with a few gusts to
20 knots this morning. Also, a few showers are possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A strong cold front was located well south of West Central Texas
this morning. Temperatures are much cooler then 24 hours ago, with
readings in the 50s. Also, low clouds covered the entire area and
winds were north to northeast gusting to 25 mph. Not much on radar,
besides a few light showers across the southern part of the
CWFA.

For today, expect much cooler temperatures and a chance of showers
along the I-10 corridor. Low level CAA will continue along with
abundant low clouds. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70,
which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Scattered light showers are
expected across the southern 1/3 of the area due to some weak
ascent. Also, gusty north to northeast winds will continue through
the morning hours. For tonight, some low level moisture will remain
over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers
still possible along the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A steady warm up can be expected through early next week. After a
cool day today, warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday, with
most locations reaching the lower to mid 80s. These temperatures may
be a degree or two high, depending on the extent of cloud cover.
Models are still showing a disturbance moving around the western
periphery of an upper level ridge, centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley. This feature may result in isolated showers,
mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau on Sunday.

On Monday, an upper level trough will quickly track across the
Northern Plains, sending a cold front south to near the Red River
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this feature on Monday, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the area, and slight chance PoPs were retained for this period. The
front will likely continue to slowly progress south through the day
on Tuesday, but uncertainty remains on exactly how far south the
boundary makes it. The NAM is the most aggressive, bringing the
front to near Interstate 20 by 12z Tuesday. Given the expected
convection along the front, and the better handling on our latest
front, the forecast was sided closer to the faster NAM solution. The
best precipitation chances will be across the Big Country Monday
night, with better rain chances spreading into much of the rest of
West Central Texas during the day Tuesday. High temperatures on both
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 80s, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s. Drier conditions and above
normal temperatures are forecast from Wednesday through at least
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  59  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  63  59  83  66  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Junction  66  59  85  67  90 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 131507
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1006 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated to lower highs today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures are slow to rise with clouds, mist and areas of
drizzle. Lowered highs in the lower and mid 60s across much of West
Central Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will prevail across West Central Texas
during the next 24 hours. There may be slight improvement to low
end VFR CIGS at the KABI terminal by late in the TAF
forecast(14/06Z). The winds will be northeast with a few gusts to
20 knots this morning. Also, a few showers are possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A strong cold front was located well south of West Central Texas
this morning. Temperatures are much cooler then 24 hours ago, with
readings in the 50s. Also, low clouds covered the entire area and
winds were north to northeast gusting to 25 mph. Not much on radar,
besides a few light showers across the southern part of the
CWFA.

For today, expect much cooler temperatures and a chance of showers
along the I-10 corridor. Low level CAA will continue along with
abundant low clouds. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70,
which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Scattered light showers are
expected across the southern 1/3 of the area due to some weak
ascent. Also, gusty north to northeast winds will continue through
the morning hours. For tonight, some low level moisture will remain
over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers
still possible along the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A steady warm up can be expected through early next week. After a
cool day today, warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday, with
most locations reaching the lower to mid 80s. These temperatures may
be a degree or two high, depending on the extent of cloud cover.
Models are still showing a disturbance moving around the western
periphery of an upper level ridge, centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley. This feature may result in isolated showers,
mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau on Sunday.

On Monday, an upper level trough will quickly track across the
Northern Plains, sending a cold front south to near the Red River
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this feature on Monday, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the area, and slight chance PoPs were retained for this period. The
front will likely continue to slowly progress south through the day
on Tuesday, but uncertainty remains on exactly how far south the
boundary makes it. The NAM is the most aggressive, bringing the
front to near Interstate 20 by 12z Tuesday. Given the expected
convection along the front, and the better handling on our latest
front, the forecast was sided closer to the faster NAM solution. The
best precipitation chances will be across the Big Country Monday
night, with better rain chances spreading into much of the rest of
West Central Texas during the day Tuesday. High temperatures on both
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 80s, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s. Drier conditions and above
normal temperatures are forecast from Wednesday through at least
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  59  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  63  59  83  66  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Junction  66  59  85  67  90 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 131139
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will prevail across West Central Texas
during the next 24 hours. There may be slight improvement to low
end VFR CIGS at the KABI terminal by late in the TAF
forecast(14/06Z). The winds will be northeast with a few gusts to
20 knots this morning. Also, a few showers are possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A strong cold front was located well south of West Central Texas
this morning. Temperatures are much cooler then 24 hours ago, with
readings in the 50s. Also, low clouds covered the entire area and
winds were north to northeast gusting to 25 mph. Not much on radar,
besides a few light showers across the southern part of the
CWFA.

For today, expect much cooler temperatures and a chance of showers
along the I-10 corridor. Low level CAA will continue along with
abundant low clouds. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70,
which is 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Scattered light showers are
expected across the southern 1/3 of the area due to some weak
ascent. Also, gusty north to northeast winds will continue through
the morning hours. For tonight, some low level moisture will remain
over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers
still possible along the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A steady warm up can be expected through early next week. After a
cool day today, warmer temperatures are in store for Sunday, with
most locations reaching the lower to mid 80s. These temperatures may
be a degree or two high, depending on the extent of cloud cover.
Models are still showing a disturbance moving around the western
periphery of an upper level ridge, centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley. This feature may result in isolated showers,
mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau on Sunday.

On Monday, an upper level trough will quickly track across the
Northern Plains, sending a cold front south to near the Red River
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this feature on Monday, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the area, and slight chance PoPs were retained for this period. The
front will likely continue to slowly progress south through the day
on Tuesday, but uncertainty remains on exactly how far south the
boundary makes it. The NAM is the most aggressive, bringing the
front to near Interstate 20 by 12z Tuesday. Given the expected
convection along the front, and the better handling on our latest
front, the forecast was sided closer to the faster NAM solution. The
best precipitation chances will be across the Big Country Monday
night, with better rain chances spreading into much of the rest of
West Central Texas during the day Tuesday. High temperatures on both
Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 80s, with
overnight lows generally in the 60s. Drier conditions and above
normal temperatures are forecast from Wednesday through at least
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  59  83  68  87 /  10  10  10  10  20
San Angelo  67  59  83  66  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Junction  69  59  85  67  90 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








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