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000
FXUS64 KSJT 251140
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Surface
winds will be mainly from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to dominate for the next 24 hours, as
the forecast remains dry. Temperature numbers close to MOS look
reasonable, with the warmest highs along and north of our Interstate
20 corridor. For tonight, lows in the lower to mid 70s look good.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

West Central Texas will continue under the domination of a strong
upper high pressure ridge through the weekend and into the beginning
of next week with hot and dry conditions persisting. Afternoon highs
over the forecast area will be in the upper 90s to around 100 with
morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

Models continue to advertise a change in our weather pattern
beginning late Monday by dropping a potent upper low pressure system
through the Great Lakes region. Given the strength of this
developing upper trough, the stagnant upper ridge over our area will
be pushed westward toward the Four Corners area. The new location of
the upper ridge will place the forecast area in a northwest flow
aloft and permit periodic upper level disturbances associated with
the developing upper trough to track across the area. At this time,
the main storm track looks to be along the Red River area which
would favor our northern CWA counties for the bast chance of
rainfall. However, any convective activity over this area will aid
in the production of outflow boundaries that will have a tendency to
push additional thunderstorm activity further south toward and
possible south of the Interstate 20 corridor. At this time, will
continue the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the forecast area await further model
enhancements.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  76  99  75  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  73  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
Junction  98  73  99  75  98 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 250830
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to dominate for the next 24 hours, as
the forecast remains dry. Temperature numbers close to MOS look
reasonable, with the warmest highs along and north of our Interstate
20 corridor. For tonight, lows in the lower to mid 70s look good.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

West Central Texas will continue under the domination of a strong
upper high pressure ridge through the weekend and into the beginning
of next week with hot and dry conditions persisting. Afternoon highs
over the forecast area will be in the upper 90s to around 100 with
morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

Models continue to advertise a change in our weather pattern
beginning late Monday by dropping a potent upper low pressure system
through the Great Lakes region. Given the strength of this
developing upper trough, the stagnant upper ridge over our area will
be pushed westward toward the Four Corners area. The new location of
the upper ridge will place the forecast area in a northwest flow
aloft and permit periodic upper level disturbances associated with
the developing upper trough to track across the area. At this time,
the main storm track looks to be along the Red River area which
would favor our northern CWA counties for the bast chance of
rainfall. However, any convective activity over this area will aid
in the production of outflow boundaries that will have a tendency to
push additional thunderstorm activity further south toward and
possible south of the Interstate 20 corridor. At this time, will
continue the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the forecast area await further model
enhancements.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  76  99  75  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  73  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
Junction  98  73  99  75  98 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 250830
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to dominate for the next 24 hours, as
the forecast remains dry. Temperature numbers close to MOS look
reasonable, with the warmest highs along and north of our Interstate
20 corridor. For tonight, lows in the lower to mid 70s look good.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

West Central Texas will continue under the domination of a strong
upper high pressure ridge through the weekend and into the beginning
of next week with hot and dry conditions persisting. Afternoon highs
over the forecast area will be in the upper 90s to around 100 with
morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

Models continue to advertise a change in our weather pattern
beginning late Monday by dropping a potent upper low pressure system
through the Great Lakes region. Given the strength of this
developing upper trough, the stagnant upper ridge over our area will
be pushed westward toward the Four Corners area. The new location of
the upper ridge will place the forecast area in a northwest flow
aloft and permit periodic upper level disturbances associated with
the developing upper trough to track across the area. At this time,
the main storm track looks to be along the Red River area which
would favor our northern CWA counties for the bast chance of
rainfall. However, any convective activity over this area will aid
in the production of outflow boundaries that will have a tendency to
push additional thunderstorm activity further south toward and
possible south of the Interstate 20 corridor. At this time, will
continue the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the forecast area await further model
enhancements.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  76  99  75  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  73  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
Junction  98  73  99  75  98 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 250438 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours across
West Central Texas. South to southeast winds will be light
through early Friday morning, and 5-10 KT from late morning through
early evening. A scattered cumulus field is expected to develop
by early afternoon across east-central and southern sections of
the area.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Zone forecast product was updated to take out mention of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon preperiod (period before 7 PM). No
other changes.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.

18

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KSJT 250438 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours across
West Central Texas. South to southeast winds will be light
through early Friday morning, and 5-10 KT from late morning through
early evening. A scattered cumulus field is expected to develop
by early afternoon across east-central and southern sections of
the area.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Zone forecast product was updated to take out mention of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon preperiod (period before 7 PM). No
other changes.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.

18

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 250137
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
837 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Zone forecast product was updated to take out mention of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon preperiod (period before 7 PM). No
other changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 250137
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
837 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Zone forecast product was updated to take out mention of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon preperiod (period before 7 PM). No
other changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 242314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18









000
FXUS64 KSJT 242314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18








000
FXUS64 KSJT 242051
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 242051
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 241708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the next 24
hours. We may see some isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention of TS in the TAFs. Light easterly winds this afternoon and
evening will turn to the south overnight. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals later
today. Coverage is expected to be too sparse to mention at this time
but will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Expect
light winds the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 241708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the next 24
hours. We may see some isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention of TS in the TAFs. Light easterly winds this afternoon and
evening will turn to the south overnight. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals later
today. Coverage is expected to be too sparse to mention at this time
but will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Expect
light winds the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals later
today. Coverage is expected to be too sparse to mention at this time
but will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Expect
light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals later
today. Coverage is expected to be too sparse to mention at this time
but will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Expect
light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 240937
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240937
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240456
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, as a veil of high clouds spreads across the
area from dissipating storms well to the northeast. Light east
and southeast winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with just a veil of high clouds spreading
across the area overnight from storms well to the northeast. Light
east and southeast winds will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 240456
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, as a veil of high clouds spreads across the
area from dissipating storms well to the northeast. Light east
and southeast winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with just a veil of high clouds spreading
across the area overnight from storms well to the northeast. Light
east and southeast winds will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 232324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with just a veil of high clouds spreading
across the area overnight from storms well to the northeast. Light
east and southeast winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07










000
FXUS64 KSJT 232053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Decker








000
FXUS64 KSJT 232053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Decker







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Decker







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Decker








000
FXUS64 KSJT 231734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain light through the period. A few fair weather clouds will be
possible this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The subtropical ridge will be centered over southern Colorado
today with 500 mb heights around 600 dam. Another hot day is in
store for the area with high temperatures topping out in the upper
90s to around 101 degrees. The hottest temperatures will be across
the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Similar to yesterday,
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm develop across southern
counties during peak heating but will be too sparse to mention in
the forecast. Winds today will be light easterly around 10 mph,
becoming light and variable overnight. Expect mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight with lows mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast through much of the week,
with a pattern change possible next week. Thursday through this
weekend, expect an upper level ridge to remain centered across New
Mexico/Colorado, resulting in hot temperatures and generally dry
conditions, with the hottest temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to near
100 across the Interstate 10 corridor, to 99 to 104 across much of
the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

Models continue to indicate a pattern change for much of the nation
next week. A potent upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the eastern half of the nation, while the aforementioned upper
level ridge shifts toward the Intermountain West. This trough will
result in a weak front moving into West Central Texas, on Monday.
Models differences in timing and strength continue, but an overall
shift toward cooler temperatures and better rain chances looks more
likely, for at least the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  74  99  75 101 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 100  74 100  73 102 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  98  73  99  71 100 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation:
Reimer








000
FXUS64 KSJT 231140
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The subtropical ridge will be centered over southern Colorado
today with 500 mb heights around 600 dam. Another hot day is in
store for the area with high temperatures topping out in the upper
90s to around 101 degrees. The hottest temperatures will be across
the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Similar to yesterday,
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm develop across southern
counties during peak heating but will be too sparse to mention in
the forecast. Winds today will be light easterly around 10 mph,
becoming light and variable overnight. Expect mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight with lows mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast through much of the week,
with a pattern change possible next week. Thursday through this
weekend, expect an upper level ridge to remain centered across New
Mexico/Colorado, resulting in hot temperatures and generally dry
conditions, with the hottest temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to near
100 across the Interstate 10 corridor, to 99 to 104 across much of
the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

Models continue to indicate a pattern change for much of the nation
next week. A potent upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the eastern half of the nation, while the aforementioned upper
level ridge shifts toward the Intermountain West. This trough will
result in a weak front moving into West Central Texas, on Monday.
Models differences in timing and strength continue, but an overall
shift toward cooler temperatures and better rain chances looks more
likely, for at least the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  74  99  75 101 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo 100  74 100  73 102 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  98  73  99  71 100 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231140
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals
the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The subtropical ridge will be centered over southern Colorado
today with 500 mb heights around 600 dam. Another hot day is in
store for the area with high temperatures topping out in the upper
90s to around 101 degrees. The hottest temperatures will be across
the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Similar to yesterday,
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm develop across southern
counties during peak heating but will be too sparse to mention in
the forecast. Winds today will be light easterly around 10 mph,
becoming light and variable overnight. Expect mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight with lows mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast through much of the week,
with a pattern change possible next week. Thursday through this
weekend, expect an upper level ridge to remain centered across New
Mexico/Colorado, resulting in hot temperatures and generally dry
conditions, with the hottest temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to near
100 across the Interstate 10 corridor, to 99 to 104 across much of
the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

Models continue to indicate a pattern change for much of the nation
next week. A potent upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the eastern half of the nation, while the aforementioned upper
level ridge shifts toward the Intermountain West. This trough will
result in a weak front moving into West Central Texas, on Monday.
Models differences in timing and strength continue, but an overall
shift toward cooler temperatures and better rain chances looks more
likely, for at least the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  74  99  75 101 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo 100  74 100  73 102 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  98  73  99  71 100 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 230914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The subtropical ridge will be centered over southern Colorado
today with 500 mb heights around 600 dam. Another hot day is in
store for the area with high temperatures topping out in the upper
90s to around 101 degrees. The hottest temperatures will be across
the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Similar to yesterday,
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm develop across southern
counties during peak heating but will be too sparse to mention in
the forecast. Winds today will be light easterly around 10 mph,
becoming light and variable overnight. Expect mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight with lows mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast through much of the week,
with a pattern change possible next week. Thursday through this
weekend, expect an upper level ridge to remain centered across New
Mexico/Colorado, resulting in hot temperatures and generally dry
conditions, with the hottest temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to near
100 across the Interstate 10 corridor, to 99 to 104 across much of
the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

Models continue to indicate a pattern change for much of the nation
next week. A potent upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the eastern half of the nation, while the aforementioned upper
level ridge shifts toward the Intermountain West. This trough will
result in a weak front moving into West Central Texas, on Monday.
Models differences in timing and strength continue, but an overall
shift toward cooler temperatures and better rain chances looks more
likely, for at least the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  74  99  75 101 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo 100  74 100  73 102 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  98  73  99  71 100 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The subtropical ridge will be centered over southern Colorado
today with 500 mb heights around 600 dam. Another hot day is in
store for the area with high temperatures topping out in the upper
90s to around 101 degrees. The hottest temperatures will be across
the Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Similar to yesterday,
could see a stray shower or thunderstorm develop across southern
counties during peak heating but will be too sparse to mention in
the forecast. Winds today will be light easterly around 10 mph,
becoming light and variable overnight. Expect mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight with lows mainly in the lower to middle
70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast through much of the week,
with a pattern change possible next week. Thursday through this
weekend, expect an upper level ridge to remain centered across New
Mexico/Colorado, resulting in hot temperatures and generally dry
conditions, with the hottest temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to near
100 across the Interstate 10 corridor, to 99 to 104 across much of
the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

Models continue to indicate a pattern change for much of the nation
next week. A potent upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the eastern half of the nation, while the aforementioned upper
level ridge shifts toward the Intermountain West. This trough will
result in a weak front moving into West Central Texas, on Monday.
Models differences in timing and strength continue, but an overall
shift toward cooler temperatures and better rain chances looks more
likely, for at least the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  74  99  75 101 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo 100  74 100  73 102 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  98  73  99  71 100 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 230453
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. A veil of high clouds will spread across the
area from storms across Mexico, but should not effect aviation
concerns. Light east and southeast winds should continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few very high based, very isolated, showers and thunderstorms
developing across West Central Texas. Radar trends suggest that the
Junction and Sonora sites, KJCT and KSOA, would be the only 2 that
might be affected by one of the storms, and even that would be highly
unlikely. Thus, will not mention in the terminal forecast at this
time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and east to southeast winds should continue.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.

Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  74 100  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  73 100  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  98  71  98  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 230453
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. A veil of high clouds will spread across the
area from storms across Mexico, but should not effect aviation
concerns. Light east and southeast winds should continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few very high based, very isolated, showers and thunderstorms
developing across West Central Texas. Radar trends suggest that the
Junction and Sonora sites, KJCT and KSOA, would be the only 2 that
might be affected by one of the storms, and even that would be highly
unlikely. Thus, will not mention in the terminal forecast at this
time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and east to southeast winds should continue.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.

Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  74 100  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  73 100  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  98  71  98  72 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 222315
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few very high based, very isolated, showers and thunderstorms
developing across West Central Texas. Radar trends suggest that the
Junction and Sonora sites, KJCT and KSOA, would be the only 2 that
might be affected by one of the storms, and even that would be highly
unlikely. Thus, will not mention in the terminal forecast at this
time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and east to southeast winds should continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.

Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  74 100  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  73 100  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  98  71  98  72 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 222028
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.

Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  74 100  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  73 100  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  98  71  98  72 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 221734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The cumulus field continues to develop this afternoon and will
persist at 5-7 kft through late afternoon with skies becoming mostly
clear thereafter. Light southeast to east winds at generally 10 kts
or less will continue through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight and early Wednesday. There may be some brief MVFR
visibilities between 3-5 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and/or KBBD, but any
impacts will be minor. Like yesterday, there is a possibility of an
an isolated shower or two this afternoon, but coverage will be
extremely limited no mention will be made in the TAFs.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy light fog will be possible through sunrise across the
southern terminals with visibilities around 5SM, otherwise VFR
conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight.
Winds will be light, generally 10 mph or less the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Hot and dry weather will continue for West Central Texas as the
subtropical ridge strengthens a bit more across the southern
Rockies today. Abundant high level clouds from earlier
convection across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is streaming
in from the north early this morning. These clouds will thin
during the day but may offset warming a degree or two across
mainly the northern counties today. Latest MOS guidance is coming
in 1 to 2 degrees cooler across this area as well. Given the
strength of the upper high and expected thinning of the cirrus
shield, will keep temperatures slightly above guidance numbers.
Surface winds this afternoon will be light and will have more of
an easterly component compared to yesterday, which may also be
enough to spare us a degree for afternoon highs. Expect
temperatures for the most part to be very similar to yesterday,
with highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Above normal temperatures can be expected through this weekend,
with a possible pattern change early next week. An upper level
high will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado through this
weekend, resulting in highs generally in the 98 to 103 range, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. The one caveat, is a TUTT
that is forecast to move into South Texas on Thursday, then into
northern Mexico Friday. On this track, this feature would increase
moisture across at least the southern half of the area, and
decrease heights. This would result in slightly cooler
temperatures, and temperatures were tended down a couple
degrees, mainly across the southern half of the area. An isolated
shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but for now PoPs were
left below 15 percent.

Models have come into better agreement in the development of a
potent upper level trough across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest
region, early next week. This helps to displace the upper level
ridge to the west, centering across Arizona. In addition, a weak
cold front is forecast to move into the region on Tuesday. A lot
of uncertainty remains on the evolution of this upper level
trough, but confidence is increasing that at least slightly cooler
temperatures and increased rain chances will be possible next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  74  99  74 100 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  73 100  71 101 /   5   0   5   5  10
Junction  98  72  98  71  98 /   5   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25










000
FXUS64 KSJT 221734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The cumulus field continues to develop this afternoon and will
persist at 5-7 kft through late afternoon with skies becoming mostly
clear thereafter. Light southeast to east winds at generally 10 kts
or less will continue through this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight and early Wednesday. There may be some brief MVFR
visibilities between 3-5 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and/or KBBD, but any
impacts will be minor. Like yesterday, there is a possibility of an
an isolated shower or two this afternoon, but coverage will be
extremely limited no mention will be made in the TAFs.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy light fog will be possible through sunrise across the
southern terminals with visibilities around 5SM, otherwise VFR
conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight.
Winds will be light, generally 10 mph or less the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Hot and dry weather will continue for West Central Texas as the
subtropical ridge strengthens a bit more across the southern
Rockies today. Abundant high level clouds from earlier
convection across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is streaming
in from the north early this morning. These clouds will thin
during the day but may offset warming a degree or two across
mainly the northern counties today. Latest MOS guidance is coming
in 1 to 2 degrees cooler across this area as well. Given the
strength of the upper high and expected thinning of the cirrus
shield, will keep temperatures slightly above guidance numbers.
Surface winds this afternoon will be light and will have more of
an easterly component compared to yesterday, which may also be
enough to spare us a degree for afternoon highs. Expect
temperatures for the most part to be very similar to yesterday,
with highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Above normal temperatures can be expected through this weekend,
with a possible pattern change early next week. An upper level
high will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado through this
weekend, resulting in highs generally in the 98 to 103 range, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. The one caveat, is a TUTT
that is forecast to move into South Texas on Thursday, then into
northern Mexico Friday. On this track, this feature would increase
moisture across at least the southern half of the area, and
decrease heights. This would result in slightly cooler
temperatures, and temperatures were tended down a couple
degrees, mainly across the southern half of the area. An isolated
shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but for now PoPs were
left below 15 percent.

Models have come into better agreement in the development of a
potent upper level trough across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest
region, early next week. This helps to displace the upper level
ridge to the west, centering across Arizona. In addition, a weak
cold front is forecast to move into the region on Tuesday. A lot
of uncertainty remains on the evolution of this upper level
trough, but confidence is increasing that at least slightly cooler
temperatures and increased rain chances will be possible next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  74  99  74 100 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  73 100  71 101 /   5   0   5   5  10
Junction  98  72  98  71  98 /   5   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25









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