000
FXUS64 KSJT 232337
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGE STORM COMPLEX JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ABILENE WILL
AFFECT THE ABILENE AIRPORT BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM...WITH HIGH
WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS THROUGH 830 PM.
COMPLEX WILL END BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND DISSIPATE MID
MORNING.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.
FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.
AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.
20
LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 88 68 85 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 88 68 87 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 88 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KSJT 232012
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
OBVIOUS ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...WITH ONE CLUSTER NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND A MORE
INTENSE AREA SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS WHERE TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SHEAR DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY ACTUALLY
INCREASES. SO...WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE TAPPING INTO THE BEST SHEAR
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 J/KG.
FARTHER SOUTH...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU RANGE FROM 4500 TO 5000
J/KG...SO THERE IS EVEN MORE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. HOWEVER...THE
CAP STRENGTHENS AS ONE MOVES EAST...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...SHEAR
ALSO WEAKENS...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO ROTATE AS THEY
INITIALLY DEVELOP...SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE.
AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/S IS
EXPECTED...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
THE FACT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ALSO...WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL DISRUPTING THINGS...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE INHERITED UPPER 80S FOR THE AREA.
20
.LONG TERM...
THE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THEN APPROACHING
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUE...SO FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 88 68 85 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 88 68 87 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 88 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 231920
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
220 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
I SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I SENT A QUICK
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH...WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 88 68 85 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 88 68 87 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 88 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 231844
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I SENT A QUICK
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH...WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 88 68 85 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 88 68 87 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
JUNCTION 71 88 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 231801 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OR MIXED HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OR VFR SCT CIGS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KABI
TERMINAL THAT WILL LIKELY BACK ITS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACT AT KABI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INTRODUCE A
PREVAILING GROUP WITH CONVECTION IN IT...SO KEPT THE VCTS GOING
AT MOST SITES BY AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 88 68 85 68 / 30 30 30 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 88 68 87 68 / 30 30 30 20 10
JUNCTION 71 88 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 231201 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
701 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD FIELD /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CARRYING LOW CLOUD GROUPS
AT KJCT AND KSOA...WITH TEMPO LOW CLOUD GROUPS AT KBBD AND KSJT...
FROM 12Z TO 15Z. HAVE A TEMPO SCATTERED MENTION AT KABI. WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT FOG/HAZE IS
LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE RANGE OF 4-6
STATUTE MILES. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO ERODE BY MID-LATE
MORNING WITH A VFR-BASED CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OPTING AT THIS TIME TO CARRY VCTS AT KABI AFTER 0530Z...AND AT KSJT
AFTER 0730Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR CEILINGS/ IS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 94 70 89 68 86 / 5 30 30 30 20
SAN ANGELO 96 70 89 68 88 / 5 30 30 30 20
JUNCTION 92 70 89 69 86 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 230930
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z. THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
BY MID-LATE MORNING...WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMER
READINGS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN THE VICINITY
OF WHERE THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE
DRYLINE. OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING
THE EVENING. STORMS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/...BUT HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR THE MCS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
IS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. WHILE TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO POPS AT THIS TIME...HAVE THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS A COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BE
MADE TO THE POPS LATER TODAY WITH NEW MODEL DATA AND AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME BETTER DISCERNED. IF A MCS DEVELOPS WITH A DECENT COLD
POOL...COULD HAVE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE/GUST FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING MCS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS MAY
BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE BULLSEYE QPF
PATTERNS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST/WARNING AREA...THE
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS /IN CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GFS/ IN SHOWING THIS PATTERN IS WORTH NOTING.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
RELIES ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT MAY WELL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MODELS ALL SUGGESTING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO
FOCUS ON...WITH THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE...AND SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT STORM LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS THE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US FOR NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST GLOW ALOFT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY TO ADD RAIN
CHANCE TO THE AREA...BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 93 70 89 68 86 / 5 30 30 30 20
SAN ANGELO 96 70 89 68 88 / 5 30 30 30 20
JUNCTION 92 70 89 69 86 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19/07/07
000
FXUS64 KSJT 230458
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES. KABI
SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT DID INCLUDE A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KSJT THIS FORECAST CYCLE GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
VFR RETURNS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS STRATUS SCATTERS OUT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE KABI AND
POSSIBLY THE KSJT TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE KBBD...KJCT
AND KSOA TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
FOR STRATUS TO AFFECT KABI AND KSJT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND
14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
20
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 92 70 93 70 87 / 0 10 10 30 30
SAN ANGELO 96 71 96 70 89 / 0 5 5 20 30
JUNCTION 93 70 92 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
000
FXUS64 KSJT 222326
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE KBBD...KJCT
AND KSOA TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW
FOR STRATUS TO AFFECT KABI AND KSJT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. EXPECT STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR AROUND
14Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
20
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 92 70 93 70 87 / 0 10 10 30 30
SAN ANGELO 96 71 96 70 89 / 0 5 5 20 30
JUNCTION 93 70 92 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
000
FXUS64 KSJT 222004
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND QUIETER WEATHER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE BEING INCREASED OR MAINTAINED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE CAPROCK REGION OF WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONT AS A
DRYLINE MIXES EAST TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM...WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...WHILE TEXAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD OUR CWA. INITIALLY...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK TO
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE STRENGTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
20
.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...BUT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STALL HERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. I INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW...I KNOCKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF CONFIDENCE IS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES. BEYOND SATURDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF INDICATES A RIDGE BUILDING IN. FOR NOW...I HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
DANIELS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 93 70 87 70 / 10 10 30 30 30
SAN ANGELO 71 96 70 89 71 / 5 5 20 30 40
JUNCTION 70 92 70 87 71 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 221807 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS. AFTER 09Z...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TO
THE AREA...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SITES. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED A LOW CEILING AT
KSJT AND KABI YET...BUT THIS CAN BE UPDATED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY. WE ARE NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET AT
THESE SITES TO INTRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. 20
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 93 70 88 70 / 10 10 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 96 70 90 71 / 5 5 20 10 10
JUNCTION 70 92 70 88 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 221128 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS/ WILL
DEVELOP NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CARRYING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN TEMPO CLOUD GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KABI...DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
9-12 KT TODAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 90 69 94 70 89 / 5 10 10 20 20
SAN ANGELO 94 70 95 69 90 / 5 5 10 20 10
JUNCTION 93 70 92 69 87 / 5 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 220845
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 90 69 94 70 89 / 5 10 10 20 20
SAN ANGELO 94 70 95 69 90 / 5 5 10 20 10
JUNCTION 93 70 92 69 87 / 5 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19/07/07
000
FXUS64 KSJT 220450
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL MID
MORNING ALONG I-10 AS A WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. THE GFS
MODEL HOWEVER IS MUCH DRIER WITH 850 MB MOISTURE JUST BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS BEEN BETTER AT HANDLING LIMITED LOW CLOUD
RETURN THIS YEAR... PERHAPS DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION...SO WILL ONLY BRING IN A SCATTERED 5000 FT LAYER AROUND
NOON.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. DECREASED SKY COVER
THIS UPDATE AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BY DAYBREAK AROUND 60 DEGREES
AREAWIDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTS TO 18 KTS UNTIL 1Z...WITH NORTH
WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SAN SABA...MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND STEADILY
MOVING SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF BALLINGER...TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...LEAVING ONLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES
IN THE WATCH AFTER 3 PM. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LAST THREE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO
SPEEDING UP THE WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND FARTHER WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WESTWARD. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS ABILITY TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GO WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 59 91 69 94 70 / 5 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 60 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 10 10 20
JUNCTION 62 93 70 93 70 / 10 5 5 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KSJT 220251 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. DECREASED SKY COVER
THIS UPDATE AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BY DAYBREAK AROUND 60 DEGREES
AREAWIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTS TO 18 KTS UNTIL 1Z...WITH NORTH
WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SAN SABA...MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND STEADILY
MOVING SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF BALLINGER...TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...LEAVING ONLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES
IN THE WATCH AFTER 3 PM. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LAST THREE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO
SPEEDING UP THE WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND FARTHER WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WESTWARD. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS ABILITY TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GO WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 75 59 91 69 94 / 40 5 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 93 60 94 70 95 / 20 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 88 62 93 70 93 / 30 10 5 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KSJT 212315
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW GUSTS TO 18 KTS UNTIL 1Z...WITH NORTH
WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SAN SABA...MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND STEADILY
MOVING SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF BALLINGER...TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...LEAVING ONLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES
IN THE WATCH AFTER 3 PM. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LAST THREE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO
SPEEDING UP THE WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND FARTHER WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WESTWARD. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS ABILITY TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GO WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 59 91 69 94 70 / 5 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 60 94 70 95 70 / 5 5 10 10 20
JUNCTION 62 93 70 93 70 / 10 5 5 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KSJT 212245
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
545 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AS THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SAN SABA...MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES
HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND STEADILY
MOVING SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF BALLINGER...TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...LEAVING ONLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES
IN THE WATCH AFTER 3 PM. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LAST THREE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO
SPEEDING UP THE WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND FARTHER WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WESTWARD. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS ABILITY TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GO WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 75 59 91 69 94 / 40 5 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 93 60 94 70 95 / 20 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 88 62 93 70 93 / 30 10 5 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211959
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...TO NEAR BROWNWOOD AND STEADILY
MOVING SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY EAST OF BALLINGER...TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...LEAVING ONLY KIMBLE...MASON...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES
IN THE WATCH AFTER 3 PM. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LAST THREE COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT WHICH WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO
SPEEDING UP THE WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND FARTHER WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WESTWARD. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS ABILITY TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GO WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 59 91 69 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 60 94 70 95 70 / 10 5 10 10 20
JUNCTION 62 93 70 93 70 / 20 5 5 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211713
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF STERLING
CITY...TO JUST SOUTH OF ABILENE...AND MOVING SOUTH. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTH AT 12 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT KABI IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND KBBD AND KJCT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD THE TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA...
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SWEETWATER...TO JUST NORTH
OF ABILENE...TO NEAR ALBANY. FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ADVANCING EAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL 7 PM CDT. I INCREASED
POPS...QPF AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING...
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EDGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS JUST
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KABI...JCT AND KBBD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT AREA. CARRYING VCTS AT KABI
AFTER 16Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY...
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS. CARRYING A VCTS GROUP
AT KBBD AFTER 20Z. HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCTIONS
IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. NORTH WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR TOWARD MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. LEAVING THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
AREA...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. COULD HAVE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-LINEAR MCS. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES.
THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE COULD MAKE
AN INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS ALONG WITH A
THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES COULD WELL REACH
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY COOLER ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...WHERE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WITH THIS SETUP TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT...AND GOING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THE GFS MOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE /AT THIS TIME/
WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT...OUR FORECAST LOWS MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN FURTHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THEY ALSO SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...WITH THE STORMS TRYING TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EACH EVENING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND BROADENS...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A HOT AND DRY PATTERN. 850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH HELPS MITIGATES THE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 60 91 69 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 61 94 70 94 69 / 10 5 10 10 20
JUNCTION 63 93 70 93 68 / 20 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211553
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1053 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD THE TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF SWEETWATER...TO JUST NORTH
OF ABILENE...TO NEAR ALBANY. FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND ADVANCING EAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL 7 PM CDT. I INCREASED
POPS...QPF AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING...
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EDGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS JUST
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KABI...JCT AND KBBD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT AREA. CARRYING VCTS AT KABI
AFTER 16Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY...
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS. CARRYING A VCTS GROUP
AT KBBD AFTER 20Z. HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCTIONS
IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. NORTH WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR TOWARD MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. LEAVING THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
AREA...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. COULD HAVE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-LINEAR MCS. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES.
THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE COULD MAKE
AN INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS ALONG WITH A
THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES COULD WELL REACH
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY COOLER ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...WHERE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WITH THIS SETUP TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT...AND GOING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THE GFS MOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE /AT THIS TIME/
WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT...OUR FORECAST LOWS MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN FURTHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THEY ALSO SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...WITH THE STORMS TRYING TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EACH EVENING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND BROADENS...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A HOT AND DRY PATTERN. 850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH HELPS MITIGATES THE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 82 63 92 69 92 / 40 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 90 64 94 70 94 / 20 10 5 10 10
JUNCTION 91 64 93 70 93 / 40 20 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DANIELS
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211141 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING...
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EDGES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTH THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS JUST
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KABI...JCT AND KBBD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THAT AREA. CARRYING VCTS AT KABI
AFTER 16Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY...
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS. CARRYING A VCTS GROUP
AT KBBD AFTER 20Z. HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCTIONS
IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. NORTH WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR TOWARD MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. LEAVING THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
AREA...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. COULD HAVE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-LINEAR MCS. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES.
THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE COULD MAKE
AN INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS ALONG WITH A
THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES COULD WELL REACH
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY COOLER ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...WHERE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WITH THIS SETUP TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT...AND GOING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THE GFS MOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE /AT THIS TIME/
WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT...OUR FORECAST LOWS MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN FURTHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THEY ALSO SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...WITH THE STORMS TRYING TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EACH EVENING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND BROADENS...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A HOT AND DRY PATTERN. 850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH HELPS MITIGATES THE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 87 63 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 93 64 94 70 94 / 20 10 5 10 10
JUNCTION 94 64 93 70 93 / 30 20 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210926
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/ WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
AREA...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED 20-30 POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...IS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...WHEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. COULD HAVE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS. OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LOOK TO BE ON THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE ANTICIPATED
QUASI-LINEAR MCS. CARRYING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES.
THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE COULD MAKE
AN INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS ALONG WITH A
THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES COULD WELL REACH
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY COOLER ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...WHERE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. WITH THIS SETUP TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT...AND GOING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THE GFS MOS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE /AT THIS TIME/
WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT...OUR FORECAST LOWS MAY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN FURTHER.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THEY ALSO SHOW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS...WITH THE STORMS TRYING TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EACH EVENING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND BROADENS...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A HOT AND DRY PATTERN. 850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH HELPS MITIGATES THE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 87 63 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 93 64 94 70 94 / 20 10 5 10 10
JUNCTION 94 64 93 70 93 / 30 20 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19/07/07
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210258
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
958 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SENT AN
UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE DELETING MENTION OF RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED PARAMETERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 68 87 65 94 70 / 10 20 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 70 92 66 95 71 / 10 20 20 10 10
JUNCTION 70 93 70 92 70 / 10 30 40 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
| 
