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000
FXUS64 KSJT 221346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
846 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
An area of light showers continues to lift north across the Concho
Valley this morning, with a heavier batch of showers farther west
of the Permian Basin. The shortwave trough that is helping to
produce this activity will continue to move northeast across West
TX today, which should result in a decrease in activity over the
next few hours. We`ll still maintain a potential for isolated
showers, and a few thunderstorms, this afternoon, but coverage
should be more limited than what we currently see. Precipitation
chances were changed to areal qualifiers (isolated/scattered) for
the rest of the day, and PoPs were bumped up to 30% across the
Concho Valley and western Big Country. Dewpoints were adjusted up
in the western areas a few degrees for today and minor changes
were made to temperatures and sky cover.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Occasional light showers may move over terminals
during the TAF period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain
light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance
of associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of
rainfall today will be over the western half of the area. As the
upper trough continues to track east through today and tonight,
the upper flow aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier
air into the area and consequently shifting the best rainfall
chances to the eastern half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come
to an end tomorrow morning as the upper trough axis moves east of
the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper
trough and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for
highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area,
with lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the
extended period, with well above normal temperatures expected
Friday through next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and
upper 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains
Monday night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the
area on Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough
compared to the GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation
affecting mainly far northern counties ahead of the front Monday
night. Forecast confidence remains low at this time however, so
will continue to maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime
highs closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  30  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  79  57  81  56  85 /  30  20   5   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Occasional light showers may move over terminals during the TAF
period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance of
associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of rainfall
today will be over the western half of the area. As the upper trough
continues to track east through today and tonight, the upper flow
aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier air into the area
and consequently shifting the best rainfall chances to the eastern
half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come to an end tomorrow
morning as the upper trough axis moves east of the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper trough
and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for highs in
the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area, with lower
80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the
upper 50s.



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the extended
period, with well above normal temperatures expected Friday through
next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and upper
80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains Monday
night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the area on
Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough compared to the
GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation affecting mainly
far northern counties ahead of the front Monday night. Forecast
confidence remains low at this time however, so will continue to
maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler temperatures behind the front
Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime highs closer to seasonal
norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  80  57  81  56  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24













000
FXUS64 KSJT 220848
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance of
associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of rainfall
today will be over the western half of the area. As the upper trough
continues to track east through today and tonight, the upper flow
aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier air into the area
and consequently shifting the best rainfall chances to the eastern
half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come to an end tomorrow
morning as the upper trough axis moves east of the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper trough
and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for highs in
the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area, with lower
80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the
upper 50s.



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the extended
period, with well above normal temperatures expected Friday through
next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and upper
80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains Monday
night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the area on
Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough compared to the
GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation affecting mainly
far northern counties ahead of the front Monday night. Forecast
confidence remains low at this time however, so will continue to
maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler temperatures behind the front
Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime highs closer to seasonal
norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  80  57  81  56  85 /  20  20  10   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 220438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Previous terminals look good, with VFR conditions dominating for
the next 24 hours. A few light showers may move over the southern
terminals during the next several hours. However, expect no
impact to flight weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Showers are continuing across much of West Central Texas south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. Thus, updated PoP and weather grids
for that area to indicate isolated showers for the remainder of
tonight. Rainfall accumulations should be very little if any.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  20  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /  20   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Update: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Previous terminals look good, with VFR conditions dominating for
the next 24 hours. A few light showers may move over the southern
terminals during the next several hours. However, expect no
impact to flight weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Showers are continuing across much of West Central Texas south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. Thus, updated PoP and weather grids
for that area to indicate isolated showers for the remainder of
tonight. Rainfall accumulations should be very little if any.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  20  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /  20   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Update: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers are continuing across much of West Central Texas south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. Thus, updated PoP and weather grids
for that area to indicate isolated showers for the remainder of
tonight. Rainfall accumulations should be very little if any.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  20  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /  20   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Update: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers are continuing across much of West Central Texas south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. Thus, updated PoP and weather grids
for that area to indicate isolated showers for the remainder of
tonight. Rainfall accumulations should be very little if any.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  20  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /  20   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Update: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212319
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /   5  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  10  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212319
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Light
and variable surface winds overnight, around 6 knots, will become
south to southeast by 18Z tomorrow and increase to around 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /   5  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  10  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

An upper trough is over the southern Rockies this afternoon, with
a lead disturbance lifting north across West Texas. The trough
axis will gradually shift east into West Texas on Wednesday. Based
on the track of the system and moisture fields, still expecting
the better rain chances to remain west of our area with this
system. Carrying slight chance PoPs tonight west of a Sterling
City to Ozona line, and 20-30 PoPs Wednesday across roughly the
western half of our area. Abilene and San Angelo will be near the
eastern edge of where we are carrying low PoPs Wednesday. Little
temperature change is expected with the overnight lows and
afternoon highs through Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the western part of our area, and partly cloudy to the
east.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

A shortwave trough will be moving across the northern/central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, with a trailing trough
axis extending SSW into the Southern Plains. Synoptic scale ascent
associated with this trough axis will exist over the area early in
the period, but lift will wane by Thursday morning as the trough
axis moves east. PoPs were kept in the 20-30% range across the
western and central portions of the CWA Wednesday night, but
trimmed back slightly on Thursday, removing rain chances from
extreme northwest areas. It seems likely that Thursday rain
chances may need to be trimmed further if the current trends
continue.

An upper-level ridge will overspread the region in the wake of the
departing trough, providing tranquil weather conditions through
the weekend. Temperatures will follow a warming trend Friday
through Sunday as mid-level heights climb (500 mb heights near 591
dam). The ridge will be transient, as a deep trough digs over the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend. Southerly
winds will persist through early next week, ramping up to 10-20
mph on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of the
aforementioned trough. As mid-level southwesterly flow moves
across the Mexican Plateau, we`ll see mid-level temps warm,
causing the elevated mixed layer (EML) to overspread the area.
This will result in a building thermal ridge over West TX Sunday
and Monday. Forecast high temperatures for this time are generally
in the mid 80s, but if we see southwesterly low-level flow
develop, compressional heating via downslope winds will likely
push temps to near or slightly above 90 degrees.

The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all in pretty good agreement regarding
the synoptic pattern by Monday morning, depicting the mid/upper-
level ridge over the southeast CONUS and a deep trough over the
central and western states. As this trough moves east, we can
expect an eventual cold front in West Central TX. Model consensus
currently points to a Monday night frontal passage, with cooler
temperatures expected on Tuesday. Rain chances are a big question
mark for now. Large scale ascent will be on the increase
downstream of this trough, but the quality of moisture return is
uncertain and the cap associated with the EML will need to break
in order for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ECMWF
parameterization does develop some precipitation across the CWA,
but the GFS keeps the forecast dry for our neck of the woods, with
QPF confined to our east. Given the low confidence in this
scenario, the precip chances were left out of the forecast for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  79  59  81  59 /   5  10  20  20   5
San Angelo  55  81  57  81  56 /  10  20  20  20   5
Junction  55  82  57  81  55 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Any showers or thunderstorms with the approaching upper level
trough will remain to the west of our TAF sites. A VFR-based
cumulus field this afternoon will dissipate this evening. Expect
some increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
tonight into Wednesday. Winds will be mostly from the southeast
at less than 10 KT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.

15

LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  58  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  56  81 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  57  82 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24












000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24












000
FXUS64 KSJT 210915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 210915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 202046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757
AFDSJT
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene          81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo       81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction         81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201057
AFDSJT









000
FXUS64 KSJT 201057
AFDSJT








000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 200429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect stratus to develop across West Central Texas overnight,
with MVFR CIGS at most of the terminals by 10Z, and at the KABI
terminal by 13Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals
by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect stratus to develop across West Central Texas overnight,
with MVFR CIGS at most of the terminals by 10Z, and at the KABI
terminal by 13Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals
by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 192348
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 192348
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber








000
FXUS64 KSJT 192348
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 192045
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

20/25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 192045
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

20/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 191804
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
104 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS are slowly lifting across the area TAF sites early this
afternoon. Have left a couple TEMPOs in at sites that may still
experience brief periods of low clouds early this afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA may develop across
the area later this afternoon. However, coverage in our area is
not expected to be high enough to mention in prevailing groups at
this time. Will update to account for any activity that could
impact specific sites later today. The two sites that are mostly
likely to see activity are KSJT and KSOA. Expect much of the
activity to dwindle after sunset. With low level moisture
continuing to move into the area from the Gulf of Mexico, expect
another round of low clouds to impact most sites tomorrow morning.
20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus has developed across parts of West Central Texas
early this morning. The patchy nature of the stratus makes
forecasting MVFR ceilings a bit difficult. For now, MVFR ceilings
are indicated at KJCT, KSOA and KBBD, but MVFR ceilings will also be
possible at KABI and KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
by mid morning. TEMPO groups were also used due to the patchy nature
of the stratus. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect southeast winds
of 5 to 10 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West Texas
from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible east of
Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance
across the northern Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this
evening, with  most convection remaining to the north and west of
the area. Highs today will be dependent on the extent of cloud
cover. Some breaks in the cloud cover this this afternoon should
allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s at most locations.
Overnight lows will be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

Unsettled pattern across West Central Texas, with a slow moving upper
low over the southwestern US. This system will weaken and open up
as it moves into the Southern Plains. Given the slow movement,
portions of the Permian Basin and South Plains will see the best
chance of rain early in the week, perhaps extending into the
western areas of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. As the
system gets closer, the better rain chances slide east and cover
much of West Central Texas for Wednesday Night and Thursday. Still
some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the GFS at this range,
but enough similarities in the models to continue the chance PoPs
in the forecast.

Temperatures should be pretty close to normal for the week, with
lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  80  59  79 /  10  10  10  10   5
San Angelo  79  57  79  58  78 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  81  57  80  60  79 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 191804
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
104 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS are slowly lifting across the area TAF sites early this
afternoon. Have left a couple TEMPOs in at sites that may still
experience brief periods of low clouds early this afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA may develop across
the area later this afternoon. However, coverage in our area is
not expected to be high enough to mention in prevailing groups at
this time. Will update to account for any activity that could
impact specific sites later today. The two sites that are mostly
likely to see activity are KSJT and KSOA. Expect much of the
activity to dwindle after sunset. With low level moisture
continuing to move into the area from the Gulf of Mexico, expect
another round of low clouds to impact most sites tomorrow morning.
20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus has developed across parts of West Central Texas
early this morning. The patchy nature of the stratus makes
forecasting MVFR ceilings a bit difficult. For now, MVFR ceilings
are indicated at KJCT, KSOA and KBBD, but MVFR ceilings will also be
possible at KABI and KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
by mid morning. TEMPO groups were also used due to the patchy nature
of the stratus. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect southeast winds
of 5 to 10 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warmer temperatures are expected today, after morning lows in the
mid to upper 50s. A disturbance is currently moving into West Texas
from northern Mexico. As this feature moves north today, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible east of
Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Sonora line, with the best chance
across the northern Edwards Plateau. Rain chances will diminish this
evening, with  most convection remaining to the north and west of
the area. Highs today will be dependent on the extent of cloud
cover. Some breaks in the cloud cover this this afternoon should
allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s at most locations.
Overnight lows will be near seasonal normals, in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

Unsettled pattern across West Central Texas, with a slow moving upper
low over the southwestern US. This system will weaken and open up
as it moves into the Southern Plains. Given the slow movement,
portions of the Permian Basin and South Plains will see the best
chance of rain early in the week, perhaps extending into the
western areas of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. As the
system gets closer, the better rain chances slide east and cover
much of West Central Texas for Wednesday Night and Thursday. Still
some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the GFS at this range,
but enough similarities in the models to continue the chance PoPs
in the forecast.

Temperatures should be pretty close to normal for the week, with
lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  80  59  79 /  10  10  10  10   5
San Angelo  79  57  79  58  78 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  81  57  80  60  79 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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