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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241115
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
only exception will be MVFR CIGS at the Brady terminal until 15Z
today, and the stratus may even clear quicker. A cool front will
move south across the area this morning, with north winds gusting to
20 knots behind the front.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today
and bring cooler air. Highs today, mainly in the mid to upper 80s,
look good. So, I didn`t make any changes there. As for lows tonight,
the NAM and GFS MOS guidance products presented cooler temperatures
than what we`ve been thinking for the last couple forecast runs.
Thus, I did adjust low temperatures for tonight down slightly.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)

For these two periods, southerly return low-level flow will help
produce slightly warmer temperatures. However, MOS numbers for these
two periods also are slightly lower than what we`d indicated in our
previous forecast packages. Nevertheless, the general consensus
among my neighbor offices is temperatures will not be as cool as MOS
numbers indicate this cycle. So, I didn`t make any changes to
temperatures for these two periods.

Huber

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Models this cycle continue to indicate the best chance for another
round of severe weather will be Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night. A surface dryline will become more defined along our western
border during the afternoon on Saturday, and streamline analysis of
aloft wind fields continue to indicate good diffluence aloft over
West Central Texas, from Saturday afternoon through midnight
Saturday night. Model forecast soundings, centered on several
locations across our counties, indicate CAPEs around 2000 J/Kg by
00Z Sunday (Saturday afternoon). Plus, these soundings indicate
little if any convective inhibition. Although it`s still too early
to assess the risks with high certainty, model data currently
supports possible tornadoes in addition to large hail, damaging
winds, and deadly lightning, beginning Saturday afternoon.

Huber

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
on Sunday. Cooler air behind the front will decrease temperatures
through the middle of next week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  56  92  66  91 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  86  58  92  66  93 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  88  61  88  66  89 /  10   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 240939
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
440 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today
and bring cooler air. Highs today, mainly in the mid to upper 80s,
look good. So, I didn`t make any changes there. As for lows tonight,
the NAM and GFS MOS guidance products presented cooler temperatures
than what we`ve been thinking for the last couple forecast runs.
Thus, I did adjust low temperatures for tonight down slightly.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)

For these two periods, southerly return low-level flow will help
produce slightly warmer temperatures. However, MOS numbers for these
two periods also are slightly lower than what we`d indicated in our
previous forecast packages. Nevertheless, the general consensus
among my neighbor offices is temperatures will not be as cool as MOS
numbers indicate this cycle. So, I didn`t make any changes to
temperatures for these two periods.

Huber

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Models this cycle continue to indicate the best chance for another
round of severe weather will be Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night. A surface dryline will become more defined along our western
border during the afternoon on Saturday, and streamline analysis of
aloft wind fields continue to indicate good diffluence aloft over
West Central Texas, from Saturday afternoon through midnight
Saturday night. Model forecast soundings, centered on several
locations across our counties, indicate CAPEs around 2000 J/Kg by
00Z Sunday (Saturday afternoon). Plus, these soundings indicate
little if any convective inhibition. Although it`s still too early
to assess the risks with high certainty, model data currently
supports possible tornadoes in addition to large hail, damaging
winds, and deadly lightning, beginning Saturday afternoon.

Huber

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
on Sunday. Cooler air behind the front will decrease temperatures
through the middle of next week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  56  92  66  91 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  86  58  92  66  93 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  88  61  88  66  89 /  10   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240446 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated or moved out of
West Central Texas, and no additional convection is expected
overnight. High cloud coverage will decrease overnight, while low
cloud development occurs late tonight and early Thursday morning
across southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying
MVFR cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds
should break up quickly by by mid-late morning, as a weak cold
front pushes south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will
follow the frontal passage, with gusts 20-25 KT possible through
early afternoon at KABI and KSJT. North winds will diminish Friday
evening and become light.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Previously updated the forecast to remove PoPs tonight for our
central and southern counties. Latest radar imagery shows a
decreasing trend with the coverage and intensity of convection in
the northern and eastern Big Country. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will expire at 11 PM, and will be dropping the PoPs across most if
not all of the area along/north of Interstate 20. The rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes planned at this time.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240330 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1028 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Previously updated the forecast to remove PoPs tonight for our
central and southern counties. Latest radar imagery shows a
decreasing trend with the coverage and intensity of convection in
the northern and eastern Big Country. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will expire at 11 PM, and will be dropping the PoPs across most if
not all of the area along/north of Interstate 20. The rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes planned at this time.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232355 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232052
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 232031
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231713
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions this afternoon and this evening across West Central
Texas, although gusty south winds will continue. We will likely see
a few thunderstorms develop around sunset across the area,
particularly near the KABI terminal. However, given the uncertainty
in coverage and timing, will not do anything other than mention a
VCTS for now. As storms develop, should be able to pin down the
timing better. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs may make a run into the
southeastern areas towards sunrise Thursday morning. Have included
cigs at Junction, Brady, and Sonora for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24
hours. Low level southerly flow will prevail across West Central
Texas with surface wind gusts of 30 knots. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop along a dryline late this afternoon and
move east across the area this evening. The best coverage of storms
will be across the Big Country. Have gone with a VCTS at the KABI
terminal this evening. The confidence is not high enough to add
thunder for most of the terminals due to very sparse coverage
further south.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  64  83  58  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  92  62  86  59  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
Junction  87  66  88  62  88 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231124
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24
hours. Low level southerly flow will prevail across West Central
Texas with surface wind gusts of 30 knots. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop along a dryline late this afternoon and
move east across the area this evening. The best coverage of storms
will be across the Big Country. Have gone with a VCTS at the KABI
terminal this evening. The confidence is not high enough to add
thunder for most of the terminals due to very sparse coverage
further south.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  63  85  58  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  92  64  88  59  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
Junction  87  65  89  62  88 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
























000
FXUS64 KSJT 230929
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber








000
FXUS64 KSJT 230432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the night at all terminals.
There is a slight chance of late afternoon/evening thunderstorms
primarily over the northern sections of West central Texas
associated with a dryline that will move across the area. Have only
included a mention of storms over KABI for this evening at this
time. A stratus deck is expected to move over the southern terminals
by early morning resulting in MVFR conditions for several hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over all terminals through tonight.
Stratus will move into the area from the south and lower the
southern terminal ceilings to MVFR by sunrise tomorrow.  Ceilings
over the southern terminals will lift to VFR by mid-morning.
Surface winds will increase in speed from the south by mid-morning,
gusting from the south around 25 knots at the northern terminals
and around 20 knots at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07











000
FXUS64 KSJT 222316
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over all terminals through tonight.
Stratus will move into the area from the south and lower the
southern terminal ceilings to MVFR by sunrise tomorrow.  Ceilings
over the southern terminals will lift to VFR by mid-morning.
Surface winds will increase in speed from the south by mid-morning,
gusting from the south around 25 knots at the northern terminals
and around 20 knots at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 222042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221613
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1113 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours. Light east
winds today, will become southeast after sunset. South winds will
increase to 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, between 15z and 17z
Wednesday.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24 hours.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  86  63  85  59 /   5  10  30   5   5
San Angelo  60  89  64  89  60 /   5  10  30   5   5
Junction  61  86  64  89  63 /   5  10  30   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221107
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24 hours.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
























000
FXUS64 KSJT 220927
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber






000
FXUS64 KSJT 220438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1136 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms continued in the vicinity of Sonora and Junction at
5Z, behind a weak cold front as it moved south. Kept a mention of
VCTS at KJCT until 7Z, otherwise storms should move south by 6Z.
With slightly drier air behind the front, VFR conditions expected
through the next 24 hours.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/


.UPDATE...
Updated zone forecast to remove mention of the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity will remain over the southern tier of counties
of West Central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Some of
the stronger storms may approach severe levels, but overall, storms
will be on a weakening trend through the remainder of the evening.
Expect gusty winds, small hail and dangerous lightning in the
stronger storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Prefrontal trough with isolated thunderstorms extended just north of
I-10 from Sonora to Junction at 23Z. Winds were shifting north of
the boundary with a weak cold front moving through the Concho
Valley. Mentioned VCTS at KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT through this evening
as the front drops through. Drier air will work in behind the front
tonight, with VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A weak cold front/outflow boundary will continue to slowly move
south across West Central Texas this afternoon, then stall somewhere
near the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the
boundary, which is depicted well by most of the high resolution
models. A fairly unstable environment is present ahead of the
boundary, with 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE along the Interstate 10
corridor, but 0-6 KM bulk shear values are not too impressive,
generally in the 15 to 25 knot range. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concerns. Most convection should move south of the
area or dissipate by 06z. Above normal temperatures are once again
forecast on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, as upper
level ridging dominates. No rain is forecast on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through the Weekend)

A little more active weather pattern across West Central Texas for
the next week, as several rounds of convection will be possible
after today. Weak upper level ridge holds for for Tuesday across the
area, limit thunderstorm potential. As a deeper trough digs into the
Southwest US, a shortwave will rotate across West Texas by late
Wednesday afternoon. Looks like a dryline setup from the Panhandle
south into the Permian Basin, with storms spreading east off the
dryline Wednesday night. Will continue the mention of a few isolated
storms during the afternoon, but next chances will continue during
the evening hours.

Cold front drops through the area during the day on Thursday,
temporarily scouring the moisture out. Front stalls and moisture
surges back north on Friday. Deeper upper level trough moves into
New Mexico and Colorado for the weekend, setting the stage for a
little more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. Still, if the
system shifts even a little farther north, West Central Texas gets
dryslotted very quickly. Given the odds this year, wont rule that
one out, so will keep the slight chance pops as is.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  83  60  86  63 /  10   0   5  10  30
San Angelo  60  86  60  89  64 /  20   5   5  10  30
Junction  60  85  61  85  63 /  40   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

daniels/07













000
FXUS64 KSJT 220310
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated zone forecast to remove mention of the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity will remain over the southern tier of counties
of West Central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Some of
the stronger storms may approach severe levels, but overall, storms
will be on a weakening trend through the remainder of the evening.
Expect gusty winds, small hail and dangerous lightning in the
stronger storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Prefrontal trough with isolated thunderstorms extended just north of
I-10 from Sonora to Junction at 23Z. Winds were shifting north of
the boundary with a weak cold front moving through the Concho
Valley. Mentioned VCTS at KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT through this evening
as the front drops through. Drier air will work in behind the front
tonight, with VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A weak cold front/outflow boundary will continue to slowly move
south across West Central Texas this afternoon, then stall somewhere
near the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the
boundary, which is depicted well by most of the high resolution
models. A fairly unstable environment is present ahead of the
boundary, with 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE along the Interstate 10
corridor, but 0-6 KM bulk shear values are not too impressive,
generally in the 15 to 25 knot range. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concerns. Most convection should move south of the
area or dissipate by 06z. Above normal temperatures are once again
forecast on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, as upper
level ridging dominates. No rain is forecast on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through the Weekend)

A little more active weather pattern across West Central Texas for
the next week, as several rounds of convection will be possible
after today. Weak upper level ridge holds for for Tuesday across the
area, limit thunderstorm potential. As a deeper trough digs into the
Southwest US, a shortwave will rotate across West Texas by late
Wednesday afternoon. Looks like a dryline setup from the Panhandle
south into the Permian Basin, with storms spreading east off the
dryline Wednesday night. Will continue the mention of a few isolated
storms during the afternoon, but next chances will continue during
the evening hours.

Cold front drops through the area during the day on Thursday,
temporarily scouring the moisture out. Front stalls and moisture
surges back north on Friday. Deeper upper level trough moves into
New Mexico and Colorado for the weekend, setting the stage for a
little more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. Still, if the
system shifts even a little farther north, West Central Texas gets
dryslotted very quickly. Given the odds this year, wont rule that
one out, so will keep the slight chance pops as is.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  83  60  86  63 /  10   0   5  10  30
San Angelo  60  86  60  89  64 /  20   5   5  10  30
Junction  60  85  61  85  63 /  40   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

daniels/07











000
FXUS64 KSJT 212300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Prefrontal trough with isolated thunderstorms extended just north of
I-10 from Sonora to Junction at 23Z. Winds were shifting north of
the boundary with a weak cold front moving through the Concho
Valley. Mentioned VCTS at KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT through this evening
as the front drops through. Drier air will work in behind the front
tonight, with VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A weak cold front/outflow boundary will continue to slowly move
south across West Central Texas this afternoon, then stall somewhere
near the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the
boundary, which is depicted well by most of the high resolution
models. A fairly unstable environment is present ahead of the
boundary, with 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE along the Interstate 10
corridor, but 0-6 KM bulk shear values are not too impressive,
generally in the 15 to 25 knot range. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concerns. Most convection should move south of the
area or dissipate by 06z. Above normal temperatures are once again
forecast on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, as upper
level ridging dominates. No rain is forecast on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through the Weekend)

A little more active weather pattern across West Central Texas for
the next week, as several rounds of convection will be possible
after today. Weak upper level ridge holds for for Tuesday across the
area, limit thunderstorm potential. As a deeper trough digs into the
Southwest US, a shortwave will rotate across West Texas by late
Wednesday afternoon. Looks like a dryline setup from the Panhandle
south into the Permian Basin, with storms spreading east off the
dryline Wednesday night. Will continue the mention of a few isolated
storms during the afternoon, but next chances will continue during
the evening hours.

Cold front drops through the area during the day on Thursday,
temporarily scouring the moisture out. Front stalls and moisture
surges back north on Friday. Deeper upper level trough moves into
New Mexico and Colorado for the weekend, setting the stage for a
little more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. Still, if the
system shifts even a little farther north, West Central Texas gets
dryslotted very quickly. Given the odds this year, wont rule that
one out, so will keep the slight chance pops as is.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  83  60  86  63 /  10   0   5  10  30
San Angelo  60  86  60  89  64 /  20   5   5  10  30
Junction  60  85  61  85  63 /  40   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

daniels/07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 212032
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
332 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A weak cold front/outflow boundary will continue to slowly move
south across West Central Texas this afternoon, then stall somewhere
near the Interstate 10 corridor this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the
boundary, which is depicted well by most of the high resolution
models. A fairly unstable environment is present ahead of the
boundary, with 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE along the Interstate 10
corridor, but 0-6 KM bulk shear values are not too impressive,
generally in the 15 to 25 knot range. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concerns. Most convection should move south of the
area or dissipate by 06z. Above normal temperatures are once again
forecast on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, as upper
level ridging dominates. No rain is forecast on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through the Weekend)

A little more active weather pattern across West Central Texas for
the next week, as several rounds of convection will be possible
after today. Weak upper level ridge holds for for Tuesday across the
area, limit thunderstorm potential. As a deeper trough digs into the
Southwest US, a shortwave will rotate across West Texas by late
Wednesday afternoon. Looks like a dryline setup from the Panhandle
south into the Permian Basin, with storms spreading east off the
dryline Wednesday night. Will continue the mention of a few isolated
storms during the afternoon, but next chances will continue during
the evening hours.

Cold front drops through the area during the day on Thursday,
temporarily scouring the moisture out. Front stalls and moisture
surges back north on Friday. Deeper upper level trough moves into
New Mexico and Colorado for the weekend, setting the stage for a
little more widespread shower and thunderstorm event. Still, if the
system shifts even a little farther north, West Central Texas gets
dryslotted very quickly. Given the odds this year, wont rule that
one out, so will keep the slight chance pops as is.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  83  60  86  63 /  10   0   5  10  30
San Angelo  60  86  60  89  64 /  20   5   5  10  30
Junction  60  85  61  85  63 /  40   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

daniels/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211657
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1157 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A weak cold front/outflow boundary will move south through the area
today. Besides resulting in a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10
knots, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the
boundary this afternoon/evening. I have included a VCTS group at
KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD, where confidence is higher that thunder will
occur. Most of the convection will have moved south of the area or
dissipate by 06z.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  83  61  86  65 /  10   5   5  10  30
San Angelo  59  85  61  89  64 /  20   5   5  10  30
Junction  60  84  61  87  64 /  40   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







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