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000
FXUS64 KSJT 272342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Conditions will deteriorate again across West Central Texas
terminals tonight, as widespread freezing drizzle and fog develops.
All sites will go down to IFR and persist through the night. May
start to see some improvement across the southern locations before
noon on Saturday, but not enough to get them out of IFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of West Central
Texas through noon Saturday...

Snow has pretty much ended across the Big country this afternoon,
with patchy light drizzle still affecting portions of the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across
the Big Country where snow covers the ground, while farther south,
temperatures are mainly in the mid and upper 20s. Warm advection
will increase considerably tonight, especially after midnight as a
strong low level jet develops. This will result in freezing drizzle
developing overnight, as warm air is lifted up and over the cold
dome. May still see a little light snow across the Big Country this
evening but little if any accumulation is expected. Light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle/freezing fog (generally 1/10
inch or less) will result in very hazardous travel conditions
areawide tonight into Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all of West Central Texas
through noon Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Big Country, to the upper 20s along the I-10 corridor.

Should see temperatures finally warm above freezing by Saturday
afternoon, with drizzle continuing. However, temperatures across the
Big Country may struggle to get above freezing due to snow cover and
current highs may be a bit too high across this area tomorrow
afternoon. Kept a mention of light freezing drizzle or drizzle
across this area into the afternoon hours for now.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)

There will be a chance of rain and mainly warmer temperatures early
this week. The combination of upper level disturbances and low level
southerly flow will bring a of showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The best chance of thunderstorms(mainly east of a Abilene to
San Angelo line) will be Tuesday and Tuesday night due to better mid
level ascent...some elevated instability. The ECMWF and CMC
models is indicating possible convection and the GFS is not
indicating much of a convective signal. Will carry chance to slight
chance POPS through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch. Temperatures will be mainly warm with highs in the
50s and 60s Sunday. A cold front will move south to just south of
the I-20 corridor Monday. Highs will range form the mid 40s across
the northern Big Country to the mid 60s along the i-10 corridor. On
Tuesday, West Central Texas will be in the warm sector, with highs
70 to 75. Lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

(Wednesday night through Friday)

Another cold front will move through West Central Texas Wednesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty north winds. There will still
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS model
is indicating much colder temperatures(850 MB -5 to -10) and some
winter precipitation. The ECMWF is pretty cold too. Will not introduce
winter precipitation and keep temperatures warmer then the numerical
models. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s, with 40s on
Thursday. Again, temperatures may even be colder. Cold nights are in
store Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  22  36  36  57  36 /  60  50  30  20  20
San Angelo  25  39  39  66  40 /  50  40  20  10  20
Junction  29  42  39  66  42 /  60  50  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 272342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Conditions will deteriorate again across West Central Texas
terminals tonight, as widespread freezing drizzle and fog develops.
All sites will go down to IFR and persist through the night. May
start to see some improvement across the southern locations before
noon on Saturday, but not enough to get them out of IFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of West Central
Texas through noon Saturday...

Snow has pretty much ended across the Big country this afternoon,
with patchy light drizzle still affecting portions of the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across
the Big Country where snow covers the ground, while farther south,
temperatures are mainly in the mid and upper 20s. Warm advection
will increase considerably tonight, especially after midnight as a
strong low level jet develops. This will result in freezing drizzle
developing overnight, as warm air is lifted up and over the cold
dome. May still see a little light snow across the Big Country this
evening but little if any accumulation is expected. Light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle/freezing fog (generally 1/10
inch or less) will result in very hazardous travel conditions
areawide tonight into Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all of West Central Texas
through noon Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Big Country, to the upper 20s along the I-10 corridor.

Should see temperatures finally warm above freezing by Saturday
afternoon, with drizzle continuing. However, temperatures across the
Big Country may struggle to get above freezing due to snow cover and
current highs may be a bit too high across this area tomorrow
afternoon. Kept a mention of light freezing drizzle or drizzle
across this area into the afternoon hours for now.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)

There will be a chance of rain and mainly warmer temperatures early
this week. The combination of upper level disturbances and low level
southerly flow will bring a of showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The best chance of thunderstorms(mainly east of a Abilene to
San Angelo line) will be Tuesday and Tuesday night due to better mid
level ascent...some elevated instability. The ECMWF and CMC
models is indicating possible convection and the GFS is not
indicating much of a convective signal. Will carry chance to slight
chance POPS through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch. Temperatures will be mainly warm with highs in the
50s and 60s Sunday. A cold front will move south to just south of
the I-20 corridor Monday. Highs will range form the mid 40s across
the northern Big Country to the mid 60s along the i-10 corridor. On
Tuesday, West Central Texas will be in the warm sector, with highs
70 to 75. Lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

(Wednesday night through Friday)

Another cold front will move through West Central Texas Wednesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty north winds. There will still
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS model
is indicating much colder temperatures(850 MB -5 to -10) and some
winter precipitation. The ECMWF is pretty cold too. Will not introduce
winter precipitation and keep temperatures warmer then the numerical
models. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s, with 40s on
Thursday. Again, temperatures may even be colder. Cold nights are in
store Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  22  36  36  57  36 /  60  50  30  20  20
San Angelo  25  39  39  66  40 /  50  40  20  10  20
Junction  29  42  39  66  42 /  60  50  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of West Central
Texas through noon Saturday...

Snow has pretty much ended across the Big country this afternoon,
with patchy light drizzle still affecting portions of the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across
the Big Country where snow covers the ground, while farther south,
temperatures are mainly in the mid and upper 20s. Warm advection
will increase considerably tonight, especially after midnight as a
strong low level jet develops. This will result in freezing drizzle
developing overnight, as warm air is lifted up and over the cold
dome. May still see a little light snow across the Big Country this
evening but little if any accumulation is expected. Light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle/freezing fog (generally 1/10
inch or less) will result in very hazardous travel conditions
areawide tonight into Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all of West Central Texas
through noon Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Big Country, to the upper 20s along the I-10 corridor.

Should see temperatures finally warm above freezing by Saturday
afternoon, with drizzle continuing. However, temperatures across the
Big Country may struggle to get above freezing due to snow cover and
current highs may be a bit too high across this area tomorrow
afternoon. Kept a mention of light freezing drizzle or drizzle
across this area into the afternoon hours for now.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)

There will be a chance of rain and mainly warmer temperatures early
this week. The combination of upper level disturbances and low level
southerly flow will bring a of showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The best chance of thunderstorms(mainly east of a Abilene to
San Angelo line) will be Tuesday and Tuesday night due to better mid
level ascent...some elevated instability. The ECMWF and CMC
models is indicating possible convection and the GFS is not
indicating much of a convective signal. Will carry chance to slight
chance POPS through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch. Temperatures will be mainly warm with highs in the
50s and 60s Sunday. A cold front will move south to just south of
the I-20 corridor Monday. Highs will range form the mid 40s across
the northern Big Country to the mid 60s along the i-10 corridor. On
Tuesday, West Central Texas will be in the warm sector, with highs
70 to 75. Lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

(Wednesday night through Friday)

Another cold front will move through West Central Texas Wednesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty north winds. There will still
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS model
is indicating much colder temperatures(850 MB -5 to -10) and some
winter precipitation. The ECMWF is pretty cold too. Will not introduce
winter precipitation and keep temperatures warmer then the numerical
models. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s, with 40s on
Thursday. Again, temperatures may even be colder. Cold nights are in
store Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  22  36  36  57  36 /  60  50  30  20  20
San Angelo  25  39  39  66  40 /  50  40  20  10  20
Junction  29  42  39  66  42 /  60  50  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$

24/21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of West Central
Texas through noon Saturday...

Snow has pretty much ended across the Big country this afternoon,
with patchy light drizzle still affecting portions of the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across
the Big Country where snow covers the ground, while farther south,
temperatures are mainly in the mid and upper 20s. Warm advection
will increase considerably tonight, especially after midnight as a
strong low level jet develops. This will result in freezing drizzle
developing overnight, as warm air is lifted up and over the cold
dome. May still see a little light snow across the Big Country this
evening but little if any accumulation is expected. Light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle/freezing fog (generally 1/10
inch or less) will result in very hazardous travel conditions
areawide tonight into Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all of West Central Texas
through noon Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Big Country, to the upper 20s along the I-10 corridor.

Should see temperatures finally warm above freezing by Saturday
afternoon, with drizzle continuing. However, temperatures across the
Big Country may struggle to get above freezing due to snow cover and
current highs may be a bit too high across this area tomorrow
afternoon. Kept a mention of light freezing drizzle or drizzle
across this area into the afternoon hours for now.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)

There will be a chance of rain and mainly warmer temperatures early
this week. The combination of upper level disturbances and low level
southerly flow will bring a of showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The best chance of thunderstorms(mainly east of a Abilene to
San Angelo line) will be Tuesday and Tuesday night due to better mid
level ascent...some elevated instability. The ECMWF and CMC
models is indicating possible convection and the GFS is not
indicating much of a convective signal. Will carry chance to slight
chance POPS through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch. Temperatures will be mainly warm with highs in the
50s and 60s Sunday. A cold front will move south to just south of
the I-20 corridor Monday. Highs will range form the mid 40s across
the northern Big Country to the mid 60s along the i-10 corridor. On
Tuesday, West Central Texas will be in the warm sector, with highs
70 to 75. Lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

(Wednesday night through Friday)

Another cold front will move through West Central Texas Wednesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty north winds. There will still
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS model
is indicating much colder temperatures(850 MB -5 to -10) and some
winter precipitation. The ECMWF is pretty cold too. Will not introduce
winter precipitation and keep temperatures warmer then the numerical
models. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s, with 40s on
Thursday. Again, temperatures may even be colder. Cold nights are in
store Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  22  36  36  57  36 /  60  50  30  20  20
San Angelo  25  39  39  66  40 /  50  40  20  10  20
Junction  29  42  39  66  42 /  60  50  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$

24/21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 272204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
404 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of West Central
Texas through noon Saturday...

Snow has pretty much ended across the Big country this afternoon,
with patchy light drizzle still affecting portions of the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Temperatures remain in the lower 20s across
the Big Country where snow covers the ground, while farther south,
temperatures are mainly in the mid and upper 20s. Warm advection
will increase considerably tonight, especially after midnight as a
strong low level jet develops. This will result in freezing drizzle
developing overnight, as warm air is lifted up and over the cold
dome. May still see a little light snow across the Big Country this
evening but little if any accumulation is expected. Light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle/freezing fog (generally 1/10
inch or less) will result in very hazardous travel conditions
areawide tonight into Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all of West Central Texas
through noon Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 20s
across the Big Country, to the upper 20s along the I-10 corridor.

Should see temperatures finally warm above freezing by Saturday
afternoon, with drizzle continuing. However, temperatures across the
Big Country may struggle to get above freezing due to snow cover and
current highs may be a bit too high across this area tomorrow
afternoon. Kept a mention of light freezing drizzle or drizzle
across this area into the afternoon hours for now.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)

There will be a chance of rain and mainly warmer temperatures early
this week. The combination of upper level disturbances and low level
southerly flow will bring a of showers and thunderstorms to the
area. The best chance of thunderstorms(mainly east of a Abilene to
San Angelo line) will be Tuesday and Tuesday night due to better mid
level ascent...some elevated instability. The ECMWF and CMC
models is indicating possible convection and the GFS is not
indicating much of a convective signal. Will carry chance to slight
chance POPS through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to
3/4 of an inch. Temperatures will be mainly warm with highs in the
50s and 60s Sunday. A cold front will move south to just south of
the I-20 corridor Monday. Highs will range form the mid 40s across
the northern Big Country to the mid 60s along the i-10 corridor. On
Tuesday, West Central Texas will be in the warm sector, with highs
70 to 75. Lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

(Wednesday night through Friday)

Another cold front will move through West Central Texas Wednesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty north winds. There will still
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. The GFS model
is indicating much colder temperatures(850 MB -5 to -10) and some
winter precipitation. The ECMWF is pretty cold too. Will not introduce
winter precipitation and keep temperatures warmer then the numerical
models. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s, with 40s on
Thursday. Again, temperatures may even be colder. Cold nights are in
store Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  22  36  36  57  36 /  60  50  30  20  20
San Angelo  25  39  39  66  40 /  50  40  20  10  20
Junction  29  42  39  66  42 /  60  50  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Saturday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$

24/21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271909 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Forecast was updated to lower max temperatures across mainly
northern counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light snow continues to fall across far eastern sections of then
Big Country this afternoon, with some very light freezing drizzle
occurring farther south across the Concho Valley and Heartland
counties. Two to four inches of snow has fallen across the Big
Country so far and expect only minor additional accumulations
generally east of a Haskell to Baird line through mid afternoon.
Temperatures are cold across the Big Country where snow is on
the ground, with most locales currently in the lower 20s. Farther
south, temperatures are in the mid and upper 20s. Little additional
temperatures rise is expected through the afternoon hours and the
forecast was been updated to lower highs for this afternoon, mainly
across northern counties. A winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for most of the area until 6 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  23  24  36  38  57 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  28  26  39  44  63 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  31  31  42  45  63 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271909 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Forecast was updated to lower max temperatures across mainly
northern counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light snow continues to fall across far eastern sections of then
Big Country this afternoon, with some very light freezing drizzle
occurring farther south across the Concho Valley and Heartland
counties. Two to four inches of snow has fallen across the Big
Country so far and expect only minor additional accumulations
generally east of a Haskell to Baird line through mid afternoon.
Temperatures are cold across the Big Country where snow is on
the ground, with most locales currently in the lower 20s. Farther
south, temperatures are in the mid and upper 20s. Little additional
temperatures rise is expected through the afternoon hours and the
forecast was been updated to lower highs for this afternoon, mainly
across northern counties. A winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for most of the area until 6 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  23  24  36  38  57 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  28  26  39  44  63 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  31  31  42  45  63 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271909 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Forecast was updated to lower max temperatures across mainly
northern counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light snow continues to fall across far eastern sections of then
Big Country this afternoon, with some very light freezing drizzle
occurring farther south across the Concho Valley and Heartland
counties. Two to four inches of snow has fallen across the Big
Country so far and expect only minor additional accumulations
generally east of a Haskell to Baird line through mid afternoon.
Temperatures are cold across the Big Country where snow is on
the ground, with most locales currently in the lower 20s. Farther
south, temperatures are in the mid and upper 20s. Little additional
temperatures rise is expected through the afternoon hours and the
forecast was been updated to lower highs for this afternoon, mainly
across northern counties. A winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for most of the area until 6 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  23  24  36  38  57 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  28  26  39  44  63 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  31  31  42  45  63 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271803 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 271803 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 271803 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 271803 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR conditions continue across the northern terminals late this
morning, with some light snow continuing at KABI and light
freezing drizzle occurring at KSJT. Southern terminals currently
MVFR and should stay that way until early evening. Deteriorating
flight conditions expected this evening with IFR/LIFR conditions
developing due to -FZDZ/BR. Included LLWS at KJCT and KBBD after
09Z due to the development of a 50 KT low level jet atop light
surface winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 271331 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271331 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271331 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271331 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
731 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover areas
generally west of a Brownwood, to Brady, to Ozona line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are being
reported across the Concho Valley, parts of the Heartland area,
and south into Crockett County. This light precipitation, which is
falling in areas that already received a light dusting of snow
earlier this morning is resulting in the development of hazardous
driving conditions across much of these areas with a patchy light
glaze of ice forming in some cases. This will likely continue
through the rest of today as temperatures remain below freezing
through tomorrow morning. Will have the advisory in effect
through this evening, but it may need to be extended through the
overnight hours if the freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixture
continues to accumulate tonight. Will update text products
shortly. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271202
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271202
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Near LIFR to MVFR conditions have begun to affect area terminals
early this morning due to light snow affecting parts of the area.
KABI has been as low as 3/4 of a mile in light snow already this
morning, and will likely see additional reductions to visibility
this morning. By early afternoon, expect the snow to be moving
east of the area. However, the low levels will continue to
moisten, resulting in lowering CIGS, and the development of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle later this afternoon and tonight, as
well as BR causing visibilities to be reduced to 3SM to 5SM at
times. Will carry IFR conditions through the overnight hours, as
conditions will not be able to improve until temperatures can warm
on Saturday. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271051
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
451 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A band of light snow was moving through the Concho Valley at 3 AM
this morning, and will continue moving north into the Big Country
early this morning. Light snowfall amounts of a dusting to around
a half inch are possible with this snow as it moves through. This
snow is associated with synoptic scale lift moving into the area
ahead of a shortwave trough moving east/southeast through northern
New Mexico early this morning. As this shortwave continues to move
to the east or east/southeast today, additional light snow is
expected to overspread most of the area. The most persistent
snowfall is expected generally across the Big Country through
early afternoon today. Total new snowfall across the Big Country
is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts in some locations, especially in Haskell and Throckmorton
counties. So, the current advisory is in good shape. The only
change to the advisory may be to start it with the issuance of the
morning zones as opposed to 6 AM.

Although we are already getting light snow in the Concho Valley,
the most likely areas of significant accumulations are still
expected across the Big Country. However, if snow persists across
the Concho Valley, will not rule out the expansion to the south
into the Concho Valley area to address additional accumulations.

By midday, the snow is expected to move off to the east as the
shortwave continues eastward, with only light additional snowfall
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will struggle to reach
freezing north of an Ozona to Mason line today.

Through the overnight hours, we are still looking at the potential
for additional very light patchy precipitation across the area due
to isentropic lift over the top of the cold surface air mass.
Thinking has not changed with respect to precipitation type
overnight a well. Due to saturation in only the low levels,
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain are expected to be the
predominant precipitation type. Although, light snow or sleet may
mix in at times. The precipitation is expected to be so light
tonight that accumulations will be very minimal if they occur.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

As isentropic lift continues, will have a chance of light
precipitation on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a decreasing
sub-freezing layer just above the surface with an increasing warm
nose above the sub-freezing layer. The soundings also show
saturation below 800-850mb with drier air above. Temperatures
will slowly climb through the day with southeast surface winds,
and by late afternoon are expected to range from the mid 30s
across our far northern counties, to the mid to upper 40s along
the I-10 corridor. With these indications, expect mostly drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The area along/north of I-20 (Big Country)
will have the longest duration of freezing drizzle, possibly into
early afternoon before temperatures climb above freezing.

Have a chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday, with warm
air advection and possibility of a weak embedded shortwave entering
the area. Temperatures are only expected to drop a few degrees or
remain nearly steady Saturday night. Highs Sunday should range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s south across west central Texas. May
have some decrease in cloud cover across our western and southwestern
counties during the afternoon.

A weak cold front is progged to move south into our area Sunday night,
and stall on Monday. With increasing moisture and some instability,
will have a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, especially
Monday.

By early next week, an upper trough is progged to develop into
the southwestern part of the U.S., with southwest flow aloft ahead
of it and embedded shortwaves entering our area. The aforementioned
front is progged to lift north as a warm front Monday night, and a
Pacific front or surface trough may move east into our area Tuesday
night. This setup keeps the 20-40 PoPs going for showers/isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough entering the north-central U.S. will send a
stronger cold front south across our area late Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF differ on how soon the
southwest U.S. upper trough will lift out across Texas, Wednesday
evening vs. Thursday morning. By that time, limited moisture
should preclude any chances for precipitation in our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  26  24  38  36  59 /  80  50  40  30  20
San Angelo  30  27  45  42  65 /  60  40  30  20  10
Junction  35  29  46  43  65 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 270532
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1132 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings are VFR (above 4000 ft) at the forecast terminals as of
530z and should remain so for most of the overnight period.
Widespread mid-level radar echoes are increasing across west TX in
advance of the next shortwave, which will bring snow to much of
the area during the day Friday. Snow is expected to develop at
KABI and KSJT as early as 10-11z. However, the column remains a
bit dry so it will take some top-down moistening before heavier
snow is observed. The greatest snow chances remain over the Big
Country between 12-18z. Visibilities will likely be reduced to 1/2
mile or so at KABI, but lighter snow farther south will limit
visibility reductions to 3-5 miles. Snow was not included in the
KJCT and KSOA TAFs.

By midday, the upper-levels begin to dry which could result in the
snow mixing with (or changing over to) freezing drizzle. The
intensity of this drizzle looks sufficient to cause minor
reductions in visibilities at times and should maintain MVFR
ceilings. However, isentropic ascent will increase markedly after
00z, resulting in widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and drizzle or
freezing drizzle, occasionally mixed with snow/sleet.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings continue across much of the CWA this afternoon, with
cloud heights around 2000 ft. We should see a little improvement
during the evening hours, but conditions are expected to
deteriorate early Friday morning as the next shortwave affects
the region. Light snow will be possible by 12z from KSJT to KABI,
eventually moving into the KBBD area. This snow may reduce
visibilities to 1 mile or less at times, but the prevailing
visibility is currently forecast from 2 to 4 miles. MVFR and IFR
ceilings are expected to redevelop Friday morning, concomitant
with the arrival of the snow.

By midday, the upper-levels dry out, removing a large portion of
ice crystals from the column. The near surface layer is still as
cold as -10C, which should support some snow, but supercooled
liquid is expected to outweigh the ice crystals. This means snow
will become less likely, with the predominant precip type
expected to switch to freezing drizzle. IFR conditions will be
possible by afternoon, but are most likely after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MIDLAND/ODESSA TX/

Short Term...

(Tonight and Friday)
.Accumulating snow likely across the Big Country on Friday...

Light snow continues across eastern portions of the Big Country
early this afternoon but will end within the next hour or so. The
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the Big
Country was allowed to expire at 3 PM and will address potential
icy roads overnight with a Special Weather Statement. Tonight
will be cloudy and cold, with wind speeds subsiding to around 10 to
15 knots by early to mid evening. Lows tonight will range from
near 20 across northern counties, to the lower and middle 20s
elsewhere. Another embedded short wave will move across the area
on Friday, with the majority of the mid level ascent from this
feature affecting the Big Country. This is where the best
potential for accumulating snowfall will be as saturation occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Latest models show a swath of
1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow generally north of Interstate
20 on Friday, with lighter amounts farther south. Snow should
begin across far western counties towards daybreak and overspread
the area during the morning hours. Far southern counties along
the I-10 corridor may see more of a light snow/sleet mix,
especially by afternoon. It will be cold on Friday, especially
across northern sections where snowfall and cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the mid and upper 20s all day. The cold
surface temperatures will allow roads across the Big Country to
become snow covered and slick. Given the high confidence for
accumulating snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued
for the Big Country for Friday. Farther south, light accumulations
will be possible but should remain below advisory criteria.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night and Saturday)

There will be a chance of mainly freezing precipitation Friday
night and Saturday morning across much of West Central Texas. The
combination of weak mid level ascent and low level warm air
advection will lead to widespread light precipitation across the
area. The point forecast soundings indicate saturated low levels
and dry in the mid and upper troposphere. As a result, the
precipitation type will be freezing drizzle/light freezing rain
due to a warm layer developing a few thousand feet off the ground.
Also, light snow and sleet is still possible across the Big
Country Friday evening. A winter weather advisory may be needed
Friday night and Saturday morning for the Big Country, Concho
valley and Heartland. Ice accumulations of 1/10 of an inch will
possible along and north of Interstate 20. The main impact will be
hazardous travel conditions due to icy roadways. Temperatures will
remain cold, staying well below freezing Friday night across much
of the area, rising to around freezing by late Saturday morning.
The temperatures will be warm enough by Saturday afternoon, that
the precipitation should be mainly liquid. However, the Heartland
and eastern Big Country may still be cold enough for freezing
precipitation.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures late
this weekend through early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving by and low level southerly flow will
bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area.
Looks like rainfall amounts will be mainly light, with local
amounts 0.5 of an inch possible, especially across the eastern
half of the area. Also, a few thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, east of an Abilene to Junction line as a stronger upper
level trough and pacific cold front moves by. Temperatures will be
warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, and
upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s, with lower 50s along the I-10 corridor by Tuesday morning.

(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Looks like mainly a dry forecast for the middle of next week with
another shot of cooler air by Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as another cold
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  28  24  39  39 /  20  80  40  40  30
San Angelo  23  30  27  48  45 /  20  40  30  30  20
Junction  25  35  29  48  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 262329
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
529 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings continue across much of the CWA this afternoon, with
cloud heights around 2000 ft. We should see a little improvement
during the evening hours, but conditions are expected to
deteriorate early Friday morning as the next shortwave affects
the region. Light snow will be possible by 12z from KSJT to KABI,
eventually moving into the KBBD area. This snow may reduce
visibilities to 1 mile or less at times, but the prevailing
visibility is currently forecast from 2 to 4 miles. MVFR and IFR
ceilings are expected to redevelop Friday morning, concomitant
with the arrival of the snow.

By midday, the upper-levels dry out, removing a large portion of
ice crystals from the column. The near surface layer is still as
cold as -10C, which should support some snow, but supercooled
liquid is expected to outweigh the ice crystals. This means snow
will become less likely, with the predominant precip type
expected to switch to freezing drizzle. IFR conditions will be
possible by afternoon, but are most likely after 00z.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MIDLAND/ODESSA TX/

Short Term...

(Tonight and Friday)
..Accumulating snow likely across the Big Country on Friday...

Light snow continues across eastern portions of the Big Country
early this afternoon but will end within the next hour or so. The
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the Big
Country was allowed to expire at 3 PM and will address potential
icy roads overnight with a Special Weather Statement. Tonight
will be cloudy and cold, with wind speeds subsiding to around 10 to
15 knots by early to mid evening. Lows tonight will range from
near 20 across northern counties, to the lower and middle 20s
elsewhere. Another embedded short wave will move across the area
on Friday, with the majority of the mid level ascent from this
feature affecting the Big Country. This is where the best
potential for accumulating snowfall will be as saturation occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Latest models show a swath of
1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow generally north of Interstate
20 on Friday, with lighter amounts farther south. Snow should
begin across far western counties towards daybreak and overspread
the area during the morning hours. Far southern counties along
the I-10 corridor may see more of a light snow/sleet mix,
especially by afternoon. It will be cold on Friday, especially
across northern sections where snowfall and cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the mid and upper 20s all day. The cold
surface temperatures will allow roads across the Big Country to
become snow covered and slick. Given the high confidence for
accumulating snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued
for the Big Country for Friday. Farther south, light accumulations
will be possible but should remain below advisory criteria.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night and Saturday)

There will be a chance of mainly freezing precipitation Friday
night and Saturday morning across much of West Central Texas. The
combination of weak mid level ascent and low level warm air
advection will lead to widespread light precipitation across the
area. The point forecast soundings indicate saturated low levels
and dry in the mid and upper troposphere. As a result, the
precipitation type will be freezing drizzle/light freezing rain
due to a warm layer developing a few thousand feet off the ground.
Also, light snow and sleet is still possible across the Big
Country Friday evening. A winter weather advisory may be needed
Friday night and Saturday morning for the Big Country, Concho
valley and Heartland. Ice accumulations of 1/10 of an inch will
possible along and north of Interstate 20. The main impact will be
hazardous travel conditions due to icy roadways. Temperatures will
remain cold, staying well below freezing Friday night across much
of the area, rising to around freezing by late Saturday morning.
The temperatures will be warm enough by Saturday afternoon, that
the precipitation should be mainly liquid. However, the Heartland
and eastern Big Country may still be cold enough for freezing
precipitation.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures late
this weekend through early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving by and low level southerly flow will
bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area.
Looks like rainfall amounts will be mainly light, with local
amounts 0.5 of an inch possible, especially across the eastern
half of the area. Also, a few thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, east of an Abilene to Junction line as a stronger upper
level trough and pacific cold front moves by. Temperatures will be
warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, and
upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s, with lower 50s along the I-10 corridor by Tuesday morning.

(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Looks like mainly a dry forecast for the middle of next week with
another shot of cooler air by Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as another cold
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  28  24  39  39 /  20  80  40  40  30
San Angelo  23  30  27  48  45 /  20  40  30  30  20
Junction  25  35  29  48  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

25












000
FXUS64 KSJT 262211
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term...

(Tonight and Friday)
...Accumulating snow likely across the Big Country on Friday...
Light snow continues across eastern portions of the Big Country
early this afternoonbut will end within the next hour or so. The
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the Big
Country was allowed to expire at 3 PM and will address potential
icy roads overnight with a Special Weather Statement. Tonight
will be cloudy and cold, with wind speeds subsiding to around 10 to
15 knots by early to mid evening. Lows tonight will range from
near 20 across northern counties, to the lower and middle 20s
elsewhere. Another embedded short wave will move across the area
on Friday, with the majority of the mid level ascent from this
feature affecting the Big Country. This is where the best
potential for accumulating snowfall will be as saturation occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Latest models show a swath of
1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow generally north of Interstate
20 on Friday, with lighter amounts farther south. Snow should
begin across far western counties towards daybreak and overspread
the area during the morning hours. Far southern counties along
the I-10 corridor may see more of a light snow/sleet mix,
especially by afternoon. It will be cold on Friday, especially
across northern sections where snowfall and cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the mid and upper 20s all day. The cold
surface temperatures will allow roads across the Big Country to
become snow covered and slick. Given the high confidence for
accumulating snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued
for the Big Country for Friday. Farther south, light accumulations
will be possible but should remain below advisory criteria

LONG TERM...

(Friday night and Saturday)
There will be a chance of mainly freezing precipitation Friday
night and Saturday morning across much of West Central Texas.
The combination of weak mid level ascent and low level warm air
advection will lead to widespread light precipitation across the
area. The point forecast soundings indicate saturated low levels
and dry in the mid and upper troposphere. As a result, the
precipitation type will be freezing drizzle/light freezing rain
due to a warm layer developing a few thousand feet off the ground.
Also, light snow and sleet is still possible across the Big
Country Friday evening. A winter weather advisory may be needed
Friday night and Saturday morning for the Big Country, Concho
valley and Heartland. Ice accumulations of 1/10 of an inch will
possible along and north of Interstate 20. The main impact will
be hazardous travel conditions due to icy roadways. Temperatures
will remain cold, staying well below freezing Friday night
across much of the area, rising to around freezing by late
Saturday morning. The temperatures will be warm enough by
Saturday afternoon, that the precipitation should be mainly
liquid. However, the Heartland and eastern Big Country may still
be cold enough for freezing precipitation.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures late
this weekend through early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving by and low level southerly flow will
bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area.
Looks like rainfall amounts will be mainly light, with local
amounts 0.5 of an inch possible, especially across the eastern
half of the area. Also, a few thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, east of an Abilene to Junction line as a stronger upper
level trough and pacific cold front moves by. Temperatures will be
warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, and
upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s, with lower 50s along the I-10 corridor by Tuesday morning.

(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Looks like mainly a dry forecast for the middle of next week with
another shot of cooler air by Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as another cold
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  28  24  39  39 /  20  80  40  40  30
San Angelo  23  30  27  48  45 /  20  40  30  30  20
Junction  25  35  29  48  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 262211
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term...

(Tonight and Friday)
...Accumulating snow likely across the Big Country on Friday...
Light snow continues across eastern portions of the Big Country
early this afternoonbut will end within the next hour or so. The
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the Big
Country was allowed to expire at 3 PM and will address potential
icy roads overnight with a Special Weather Statement. Tonight
will be cloudy and cold, with wind speeds subsiding to around 10 to
15 knots by early to mid evening. Lows tonight will range from
near 20 across northern counties, to the lower and middle 20s
elsewhere. Another embedded short wave will move across the area
on Friday, with the majority of the mid level ascent from this
feature affecting the Big Country. This is where the best
potential for accumulating snowfall will be as saturation occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Latest models show a swath of
1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow generally north of Interstate
20 on Friday, with lighter amounts farther south. Snow should
begin across far western counties towards daybreak and overspread
the area during the morning hours. Far southern counties along
the I-10 corridor may see more of a light snow/sleet mix,
especially by afternoon. It will be cold on Friday, especially
across northern sections where snowfall and cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the mid and upper 20s all day. The cold
surface temperatures will allow roads across the Big Country to
become snow covered and slick. Given the high confidence for
accumulating snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued
for the Big Country for Friday. Farther south, light accumulations
will be possible but should remain below advisory criteria

LONG TERM...

(Friday night and Saturday)
There will be a chance of mainly freezing precipitation Friday
night and Saturday morning across much of West Central Texas.
The combination of weak mid level ascent and low level warm air
advection will lead to widespread light precipitation across the
area. The point forecast soundings indicate saturated low levels
and dry in the mid and upper troposphere. As a result, the
precipitation type will be freezing drizzle/light freezing rain
due to a warm layer developing a few thousand feet off the ground.
Also, light snow and sleet is still possible across the Big
Country Friday evening. A winter weather advisory may be needed
Friday night and Saturday morning for the Big Country, Concho
valley and Heartland. Ice accumulations of 1/10 of an inch will
possible along and north of Interstate 20. The main impact will
be hazardous travel conditions due to icy roadways. Temperatures
will remain cold, staying well below freezing Friday night
across much of the area, rising to around freezing by late
Saturday morning. The temperatures will be warm enough by
Saturday afternoon, that the precipitation should be mainly
liquid. However, the Heartland and eastern Big Country may still
be cold enough for freezing precipitation.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures late
this weekend through early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving by and low level southerly flow will
bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area.
Looks like rainfall amounts will be mainly light, with local
amounts 0.5 of an inch possible, especially across the eastern
half of the area. Also, a few thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, east of an Abilene to Junction line as a stronger upper
level trough and pacific cold front moves by. Temperatures will be
warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, and
upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s, with lower 50s along the I-10 corridor by Tuesday morning.

(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Looks like mainly a dry forecast for the middle of next week with
another shot of cooler air by Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as another cold
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  28  24  39  39 /  20  80  40  40  30
San Angelo  23  30  27  48  45 /  20  40  30  30  20
Junction  25  35  29  48  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 262211
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term...

(Tonight and Friday)
...Accumulating snow likely across the Big Country on Friday...
Light snow continues across eastern portions of the Big Country
early this afternoonbut will end within the next hour or so. The
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect across the Big
Country was allowed to expire at 3 PM and will address potential
icy roads overnight with a Special Weather Statement. Tonight
will be cloudy and cold, with wind speeds subsiding to around 10 to
15 knots by early to mid evening. Lows tonight will range from
near 20 across northern counties, to the lower and middle 20s
elsewhere. Another embedded short wave will move across the area
on Friday, with the majority of the mid level ascent from this
feature affecting the Big Country. This is where the best
potential for accumulating snowfall will be as saturation occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Latest models show a swath of
1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow generally north of Interstate
20 on Friday, with lighter amounts farther south. Snow should
begin across far western counties towards daybreak and overspread
the area during the morning hours. Far southern counties along
the I-10 corridor may see more of a light snow/sleet mix,
especially by afternoon. It will be cold on Friday, especially
across northern sections where snowfall and cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the mid and upper 20s all day. The cold
surface temperatures will allow roads across the Big Country to
become snow covered and slick. Given the high confidence for
accumulating snowfall, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued
for the Big Country for Friday. Farther south, light accumulations
will be possible but should remain below advisory criteria

LONG TERM...

(Friday night and Saturday)
There will be a chance of mainly freezing precipitation Friday
night and Saturday morning across much of West Central Texas.
The combination of weak mid level ascent and low level warm air
advection will lead to widespread light precipitation across the
area. The point forecast soundings indicate saturated low levels
and dry in the mid and upper troposphere. As a result, the
precipitation type will be freezing drizzle/light freezing rain
due to a warm layer developing a few thousand feet off the ground.
Also, light snow and sleet is still possible across the Big
Country Friday evening. A winter weather advisory may be needed
Friday night and Saturday morning for the Big Country, Concho
valley and Heartland. Ice accumulations of 1/10 of an inch will
possible along and north of Interstate 20. The main impact will
be hazardous travel conditions due to icy roadways. Temperatures
will remain cold, staying well below freezing Friday night
across much of the area, rising to around freezing by late
Saturday morning. The temperatures will be warm enough by
Saturday afternoon, that the precipitation should be mainly
liquid. However, the Heartland and eastern Big Country may still
be cold enough for freezing precipitation.

(Saturday night through Tuesday)
There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures late
this weekend through early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving by and low level southerly flow will
bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area.
Looks like rainfall amounts will be mainly light, with local
amounts 0.5 of an inch possible, especially across the eastern
half of the area. Also, a few thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, east of an Abilene to Junction line as a stronger upper
level trough and pacific cold front moves by. Temperatures will be
warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, and
upper 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s and
40s, with lower 50s along the I-10 corridor by Tuesday morning.

(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Looks like mainly a dry forecast for the middle of next week with
another shot of cooler air by Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday as another cold
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  28  24  39  39 /  20  80  40  40  30
San Angelo  23  30  27  48  45 /  20  40  30  30  20
Junction  25  35  29  48  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 261800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/


MVFR ceilings will continue across the terminals through the
afternoon hours. Light snow will reduced visibilities across the
KABI terminal through early afternoon before tapering off. Some
improvement to ceilings is expected by early evening but
deteriorating flight conditions is expected again Friday morning
as an upper level disturbance affects the region. Light snow will
develop after 12Z across the northern terminals IFR conditions
likely at KABI due to steady/heavier snowfall. Some light frozen
precipitation is possible at the remaining terminals by mid to
late morning but confidence is not high enough to mention at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

UPDATE...

Light snow continues to fall mainly across the Big Country this
morning and roads across the area are becoming snow covered and
slick. Latest HRRR indicates snow continuing through early
afternoon before tapering off. Have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Big Country through 19Z today, with 1 to 3 inches
of snow is possible. Temperatures across the area will remain in
the upper 20s through early afternoon, so deteriorating road
conditions are likely.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Strong gusty north wind and lowering ceilings to MVFR are expected
behind a strong cold front this morning. Light rain at KABI will
transition to light snow mid morning. KABI will see the strongest
wind gusts up to 33 KTS this morning. Winds will gradually
decrease this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return tonight over
most TAF sites, mainly after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  29  24  41  39 /  10  40  30  30  30
San Angelo  23  31  27  50  45 /  10  30  30  20  20
Junction  25  36  29  50  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 261800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/


MVFR ceilings will continue across the terminals through the
afternoon hours. Light snow will reduced visibilities across the
KABI terminal through early afternoon before tapering off. Some
improvement to ceilings is expected by early evening but
deteriorating flight conditions is expected again Friday morning
as an upper level disturbance affects the region. Light snow will
develop after 12Z across the northern terminals IFR conditions
likely at KABI due to steady/heavier snowfall. Some light frozen
precipitation is possible at the remaining terminals by mid to
late morning but confidence is not high enough to mention at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

UPDATE...

Light snow continues to fall mainly across the Big Country this
morning and roads across the area are becoming snow covered and
slick. Latest HRRR indicates snow continuing through early
afternoon before tapering off. Have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Big Country through 19Z today, with 1 to 3 inches
of snow is possible. Temperatures across the area will remain in
the upper 20s through early afternoon, so deteriorating road
conditions are likely.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Strong gusty north wind and lowering ceilings to MVFR are expected
behind a strong cold front this morning. Light rain at KABI will
transition to light snow mid morning. KABI will see the strongest
wind gusts up to 33 KTS this morning. Winds will gradually
decrease this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return tonight over
most TAF sites, mainly after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  19  29  24  41  39 /  10  40  30  30  30
San Angelo  23  31  27  50  45 /  10  30  30  20  20
Junction  25  36  29  50  44 /  10  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 261622
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Light snow continues to fall mainly across the Big Country this
morning and roads across the area are becoming snow covered and
slick. Latest HRRR indicates snow continuing through early
afternoon before tapering off. Have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for the Big Country through 19Z today, with 1 to 3 inches
of snow is possible. Temperatures across the area will remain in
the upper 20s through early afternoon, so deteriorating road
conditions are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Strong gusty north wind and lowering ceilings to MVFR are expected
behind a strong cold front this morning. Light rain at KABI will
transition to light snow mid morning. KABI will see the strongest
wind gusts up to 33 KTS this morning. Winds will gradually
decrease this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return tonight over
most TAF sites, mainly after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  19  29  24  41 /  80  10  40  30  30
San Angelo  33  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  37  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 261128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Strong gusty north wind and lowering ceilings to MVFR are expected
behind a strong cold front this morning. Light rain at KABI will
transition to light snow mid morning. KABI will see the strongest
wind gusts up to 33 KTS this morning. Winds will gradually
decrease this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return tonight over
most TAF sites, mainly after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  19  29  24  41 /  30  10  40  30  30
San Angelo  38  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  42  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 261128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
528 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Strong gusty north wind and lowering ceilings to MVFR are expected
behind a strong cold front this morning. Light rain at KABI will
transition to light snow mid morning. KABI will see the strongest
wind gusts up to 33 KTS this morning. Winds will gradually
decrease this afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return tonight over
most TAF sites, mainly after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  19  29  24  41 /  30  10  40  30  30
San Angelo  38  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  42  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 261033
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  19  29  24  41 /  30  20  40  30  30
San Angelo  38  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  42  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 261033
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  19  29  24  41 /  30  20  40  30  30
San Angelo  38  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  42  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 261033
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
433 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front was just south of I-20 from Big Spring to Abilene at 3
AM. There was a pre-frontal trough ahead of it, with north winds of
5 to 10 mph. Winds were north 15 to 25 mph behind it. Front should
be along a San Angelo to Brownwood line around 6 AM...and south of
I-10 by 9 AM.

A band of snow has developed in the southern Texas Panhandle down
to the Lubbock area at 3 AM, associated with an upper shortwave.
The area of snow will move east across the Big Country this
morning. It may start off as light rain, but transition to snow by
9 AM, with strong cold air advection behind the cold front.
Temperatures will not be rising much today, especially across the
Big Country, where clouds, snow, and cold air advection will keep
temperatures below freezing for much of the day. Temperatures in
the Big Country, in fact, may dip in the upper 20s mid morning,
and stay there. Snow amounts in the Big Country will be light,
perhaps 1 to 2 tenths, with a few flurries in the afternoon.

Tonight, the NAM model indicates an increasing potential for
light snow developing towards Friday morning, especially in the
Big Country, with increasing low mid/level lift and moisture over
the front. Have precipitation as snow, as sounding is well below
freezing and saturated up to -20 C (500MB) by Friday 6 AM CST.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

The challenge for the long term portion of the forecast remains
the winter weather event for the early portion of the long term,
generally Friday and Friday night.

Models are in fairly good agreement generally when it comes to
the overall pattern Friday into the weekend. A shortwave trough
will approach the area Friday morning, and move northeast away
from the area Friday night. At the surface, temperatures are not
expected to make it above freezing for most of the area Friday
through Friday night. With synoptic scale lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with the shortwave trough during the day
Friday, we should see saturation through the vertical column to
levels where snow can be efficiently produced. Therefore, have
mostly snow in the forecast Friday across the entire area. The
only exception is our far southern areas where there may be some
melting, then re-freezing taking place in the lower layers of the
atmosphere, and some sleet could develop with the snow. The path
of the shortwave is expected to be across the Texas panhandle and
caprock areas at this time. This would bring the best lift for our
area to locations mainly along and north of Interstate 20. It`s
well within the realm of possibilities that these areas could see
accumulating snowfall totals to Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-3") during the day Friday, with lesser amounts south of the Big
Country.

Friday night becomes more complicated. With the shortwave moving
off to the northeast, we lose our synoptic scale lift in the mid
and upper levels, meaning we will likely see some drying aloft.
However, we will still have saturated low levels (generally from
the surface through 5000 feet or so), and weak lift associated
with warm air advection over the top of the cold surface air mass.
With this in mind, we could see additional light precipitation
Friday night with temperatures still below freezing. Given that
snow production would likely end, and near surface temperatures
will be below freezing, the mostly likely precipitation for most
of the area would be freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Light ice
accumulations would be possible with this precipitation, and could
be near advisory criteria.

On Saturday, temperatures should warm to above freezing by late
morning or early afternoon for most of the area, and have brought
liquid precipitation back into the forecast for everywhere except
north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon, and even north of the I-20
will eventually turn to all liquid, but temperatures may still be
cool enough for some light freezing rain or drizzle into early
afternoon here.

Forecast looks to remain above freezing from Saturday night
through the end of the period, and models continue to hold on to a
chance for light rain or sprinkles through Tuesday, although any
precipitation we get should be very light.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  19  29  24  41 /  30  20  40  30  30
San Angelo  38  23  31  27  50 /  10  10  30  30  20
Junction  42  25  36  29  50 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 260523
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will persist for for most of the overnight period,
but low clouds are expected to develop areawide in the wake of a
strong cold front that will be marching south across the CWA late
tonight and early Thursday. Winds will shift to the north at KABI
over the next few hours as the initial boundary arrives, but the
stronger north winds are expected to be delayed until after 10z.
These stronger winds are forecast to reach KSJT around 13z and the
I-10 corridor after 14z. Expect MVFR ceilings at all terminals,
generally around 2000 ft. Ceilings are forecast to improve to MVFR
during the afternoon. Light snow is expected across the Big
Country and was included in the KABI TAF for a few hours either
side of 14z. Tempo IFR visibilities are possible if snow band
affects the KABI terminal.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  34  19  29  23 /   5  30  20  40  30
San Angelo  33  37  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  32  40  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 260523
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will persist for for most of the overnight period,
but low clouds are expected to develop areawide in the wake of a
strong cold front that will be marching south across the CWA late
tonight and early Thursday. Winds will shift to the north at KABI
over the next few hours as the initial boundary arrives, but the
stronger north winds are expected to be delayed until after 10z.
These stronger winds are forecast to reach KSJT around 13z and the
I-10 corridor after 14z. Expect MVFR ceilings at all terminals,
generally around 2000 ft. Ceilings are forecast to improve to MVFR
during the afternoon. Light snow is expected across the Big
Country and was included in the KABI TAF for a few hours either
side of 14z. Tempo IFR visibilities are possible if snow band
affects the KABI terminal.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  34  19  29  23 /   5  30  20  40  30
San Angelo  33  37  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  32  40  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 260523
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will persist for for most of the overnight period,
but low clouds are expected to develop areawide in the wake of a
strong cold front that will be marching south across the CWA late
tonight and early Thursday. Winds will shift to the north at KABI
over the next few hours as the initial boundary arrives, but the
stronger north winds are expected to be delayed until after 10z.
These stronger winds are forecast to reach KSJT around 13z and the
I-10 corridor after 14z. Expect MVFR ceilings at all terminals,
generally around 2000 ft. Ceilings are forecast to improve to MVFR
during the afternoon. Light snow is expected across the Big
Country and was included in the KABI TAF for a few hours either
side of 14z. Tempo IFR visibilities are possible if snow band
affects the KABI terminal.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  34  19  29  23 /   5  30  20  40  30
San Angelo  33  37  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  32  40  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 252337
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  36  19  29  23 /   5  20  20  40  30
San Angelo  31  40  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  30  44  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 252337
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  36  19  29  23 /   5  20  20  40  30
San Angelo  31  40  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  30  44  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 252337
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Quiet wx conditions are anticipated this evening with generally
clear skies and light/variable winds. A cold front will move
across the Big Country late tonight, shifting winds to the north
at KABI around 07z, reaching KSJT by 10z, and the Interstate 10
terminals around 12z. Winds are expected to be around 10 kts
initially behind this front, but will increase to 15-20 kts,
gusting over 25 kts at times, by early to mid morning. Low clouds
are expected to develop in the wake of the front, providing
generally MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft for much of the day.
There is an outside possibility of some light rain and/or snow at
KABI for a few hours after 12z, but the probability is too limited
to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the
Northern and Central Plains this evening and will send another
strong cold front across the area after midnight. Models also show
a weaker impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West
Central Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern
counties late this evening and is expected to clear far southern
counties around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow
the front, with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower
30s by early morning. The combination of gusty north winds and
cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the teens
Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s
across northern counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big
Country early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse
moves across the area. Not very confident that this will occur but
did go ahead and add a slight chance for snow along and north of
Interstate 20 Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be
light with only a dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation
mainly on grassy surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will also result in.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday
and Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent
and increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West
Central Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the
mid level frontogenesis for a few hours Friday afternoon and
evening. The GFS model is producing only little QPF amounts. The
GEM model is much closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point
forecast soundings support light snow across the northern 2/3 of
the West Central Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from
WPC has 1 to 2 inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding
can set up, then locally higher snow accumulations are possible.
The forecast confidence on this event is still low and need to see
a few more model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming
event. For Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main
precipitation type as a low level warm nose will develop. The
precipitation should change over to light rain across much of the
area by Saturday afternoon, besides the Big Country which still
may see freezing drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across
the Big Country Friday night, but mainly snow is expected instead
of ice which is good news for potential travel problems. The
temperatures will be cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Friday and lows mainly in the 20s Friday night. a little warmer
Saturday with highs from the upper 30s across the Big Country to
the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Also, cold temperatures for
Thursday night with lows in the 20s and a slight chance of light
snow across the Big Country and Concho Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper
level disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly
flow will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall
amounts will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western
half and 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also,
there will be some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry
conditions. The southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions
to the area. However, a surface front will bisect the center of
the CWA on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across
the Big Country to the lower 60s along the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the 60s through the period.
Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  36  19  29  23 /   5  20  20  40  30
San Angelo  31  40  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  30  44  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 252143
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the Northern
and Central Plains this evening and will send another strong cold
front across the area after midnight. Models also show a weaker
impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West Central
Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern counties
late this evening and is expected to clear far southern counties
around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow the front,
with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s by early
morning. The combination of gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will result in wind chill values in the teens Thursday morning.
Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s across northern
counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big Country
early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse moves across
the area. Not very confident that this will occur but did go ahead
and add a slight chance for snow along and north of Interstate 20
Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be light with only a
dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation mainly on grassy
surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures will also result
in.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday and
Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent and
increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West Central
Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the mid level
frontogensis for a few hours Friday afternoon and evening. The GFS
model is producing only little QPF amounts. The CMC model is much
closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point forecast soundings
support light snow across the northern 2/3 of the West Central
Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from WPC has 1 to 2
inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding can set up, then
locally higher snow accumulations are possible. The forecast
confidence on this event is still low and need to see a few more
model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming event. For
Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main precipitation
type as a low level warm nose will develop. The precipitation should
change over to light rain across much of the area by Saturday
afternoon, besides the Big Country which still may see freezing
drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across the Big Country
Friday night, but  mainly snow is expected instead of ice which is
good news for potential travel problems. The temperatures will be
cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s Friday and lows mainly in
the 20s Friday night. a little warmer Saturday with highs from the
upper 30s across the Big Country to the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
Also, cold temperatures for Thursday night with lows in the 20s and
a slight chance of light snow across the Big Country and Concho
Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper level
disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly flow
will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall amounts
will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western half and
1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also, there will be
some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry conditions. The
southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions to the area.
However, a surface front will bisect the center of the CWA on Monday, with
highs ranging from the upper 40s across the Big Country to the lower
60s along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the
60s through the period. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  36  19  29  23 /   5  20  20  40  30
San Angelo  31  40  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  30  44  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 252143
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS the next 24
hours. An embedded short wave will drop south across the Northern
and Central Plains this evening and will send another strong cold
front across the area after midnight. Models also show a weaker
impulse dropping south across the Rockies and across West Central
Texas towards daybreak. The front will enter far northern counties
late this evening and is expected to clear far southern counties
around daybreak Thursday. Gusty north winds will follow the front,
with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s by early
morning. The combination of gusty north winds and cold temperatures
will result in wind chill values in the teens Thursday morning.
Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 30s across northern
counties, to the lower 40s elsewhere.

The NAM shows a band of light snow developing across the Big Country
early Thursday morning as the aforementioned impulse moves across
the area. Not very confident that this will occur but did go ahead
and add a slight chance for snow along and north of Interstate 20
Thursday morning. Any snow that develops would be light with only a
dusting or perhaps a half inch of accumulation mainly on grassy
surfaces. Gusty north winds and cold temperatures will also result
in.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)

There will be a chance of snow and cold temperatures for Friday and
Friday night. The combination of moderate mid level ascent and
increasing moisture will bring light precipitation to West Central
Texas. However, the NAM model is more aggressive with the mid level
frontogensis for a few hours Friday afternoon and evening. The GFS
model is producing only little QPF amounts. The CMC model is much
closer to the NAM with QPF amounts. The point forecast soundings
support light snow across the northern 2/3 of the West Central
Texas. The latest internal snowfall graphics from WPC has 1 to 2
inches across the Big Country. If mesoscale banding can set up, then
locally higher snow accumulations are possible. The forecast
confidence on this event is still low and need to see a few more
model runs to get a better handle on this upcoming event. For
Saturday morning, freezing drizzle will be the main precipitation
type as a low level warm nose will develop. The precipitation should
change over to light rain across much of the area by Saturday
afternoon, besides the Big Country which still may see freezing
drizzle. There may be some travel impacts across the Big Country
Friday night, but  mainly snow is expected instead of ice which is
good news for potential travel problems. The temperatures will be
cold with highs in the upper 20s and 30s Friday and lows mainly in
the 20s Friday night. a little warmer Saturday with highs from the
upper 30s across the Big Country to the 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.
Also, cold temperatures for Thursday night with lows in the 20s and
a slight chance of light snow across the Big Country and Concho
Valley.

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of showers and warmer temperatures through
late this weekend into early next week. The combination of upper level
disturbances moving across the area and low level southerly flow
will bring a chance of showers to the area. The rainfall amounts
will range from 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch across the western half and
1/4 to 1/2 of an inch across the eastern half. Also, there will be
some hours that we may only see drizzle or just dry conditions. The
southerly flow will bring mainly warmer conditions to the area.
However, a surface front will bisect the center of the CWA on Monday, with
highs ranging from the upper 40s across the Big Country to the lower
60s along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, highs will be mainly in the
60s through the period. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  36  19  29  23 /   5  20  20  40  30
San Angelo  31  40  23  32  27 /   0  10  10  30  30
Junction  30  44  27  36  29 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 251758
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through this
evening. Expect breezy northwest to west winds this afternoon,
diminishing to 10 KT or less after 26/00Z. A strong cold front
will move south across the terminals late tonight and early
Thursday. Gusty north winds will develop behind the front, along
with some MVFR ceilings developing across mainly the KABI and
KSJT terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS will rise to VFR at KBBD and KSOA by 14Z as drier
westerly winds move in. KABI and KSJT may see the return of
MVFR CIGS late tonight as a strong cold front moves through.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  37  19  29  23 /   5  10  20  40  30
San Angelo  29  42  23  32  27 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  28  46  28  36  29 /   5   5  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 251758
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through this
evening. Expect breezy northwest to west winds this afternoon,
diminishing to 10 KT or less after 26/00Z. A strong cold front
will move south across the terminals late tonight and early
Thursday. Gusty north winds will develop behind the front, along
with some MVFR ceilings developing across mainly the KABI and
KSJT terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS will rise to VFR at KBBD and KSOA by 14Z as drier
westerly winds move in. KABI and KSJT may see the return of
MVFR CIGS late tonight as a strong cold front moves through.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  29  37  19  29  23 /   5  10  20  40  30
San Angelo  29  42  23  32  27 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  28  46  28  36  29 /   5   5  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 251120
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS will rise to VFR at KBBD and KSOA by 14Z as drier
westerly winds move in. KABI and KSJT may see the return of
MVFR CIGS late tonight as a strong cold front moves through.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  29  38  19  29 /  30   5  10  20  40
San Angelo  62  30  42  23  32 /  20   0   5  10  20
Junction  61  28  46  28  36 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 251120
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
520 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGS will rise to VFR at KBBD and KSOA by 14Z as drier
westerly winds move in. KABI and KSJT may see the return of
MVFR CIGS late tonight as a strong cold front moves through.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  29  38  19  29 /  30   5  10  20  40
San Angelo  62  30  42  23  32 /  20   0   5  10  20
Junction  61  28  46  28  36 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 251021
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  29  38  19  29 /  10   5  10  20  40
San Angelo  62  30  44  23  32 /  10   0   5  10  20
Junction  61  28  46  28  36 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 251021
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
421 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The main winter weather reported overnight has been sleet mixing
in with rain. No accumulations of sleet reported, however there
was a band of higher reflectivity values that was moving through
Coleman and Brown counties at 4 AM. There could be some
accumulation of sleet with these storms.

Winter weather potential however appears to be decreasing this
morning. Tempted to cancel the winter weather advisory, but
colder air aloft was still moving in, so rain could still change
to, or mix with snow. The upper low was still hanging back over
the Permian Basin (moderate snow reported at Odessa), and will
pass east across the Concho Valley and Heartland through mid
morning. Temperatures in the mid 30s and the beginnings of
downslope westerly winds, however, will limit snowfall
accumulation. Will continue winter weather advisory, but it may be
canceled early.

Downslope northwest to west winds and subsidence behind the upper
low will allow clearing skies by midday. Warmer today with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas, although eastern
sections from Albany to Brownwood to San Saba will likely see
lower 50s due to cloud cover through noon.

A cold front will enter the Big Country late this evening and
move south of I-10 by 6 AM Thursday. With strong cold advection
behind the front, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s. Wind
chills will be in the mid and upper teens across West Central
Texas Thursday morning as winds increase to 15 to 25 mph.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Thursday will mark the first day of a two-day cool down as the
next arctic blast of air will still be working into the area.
Highs on Thursday have been maintained at similar values to what
were inherited with readings expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will fall below freezing Thursday night, and could
remain below freezing through Friday for much of the area, and
especially north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line.

Thursday night into Friday, behind the cold front, a shortwave
trough will move across the area bringing another chance for
precipitation. With most of the lift expected to be just north of
our area, have maintained a gradient of PoPs across our area of
better chances north of I-20 on Friday with slight chances for the
southern half of the area. Minimum temperatures at the surface
will be below freezing across the entire area Thursday night, and
some locations could dip into the teens. Needless to say, there is
a good chance for another round of wintry precipitation. While
most of it will be light, there is the possibility of some
accumulation of snow and/or sleet, mainly north of a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. As we approach the event, the details
concerning exact precip type and accumulations (if any) will be
adjusted as we get a better idea of where the best chances for
accumulating precipitation will be.

Precipitation chances linger through Friday night, but amounts are
expected to be light, as the main mechanism Friday night will be
isentropic ascent over the top of the cold air at the surface as
low level southerly flow picks up. In this set-up, southern areas
may see freezing drizzle or freezing rain as temperatures just off
the surface warm above freezing while the surface remains cold
Friday night, and have introduced some freezing drizzle/freezing
rain for portions of the southern half of the area Friday night
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will warm back up above freezing Saturday, so have
transitioned any light precipitation on Saturday from a wintry mix
to liquid by early afternoon. Under southwest flow aloft,
temperatures will remain near normal values through the weekend
into early next week. Have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs
through early next week as southerly warm/moist flow continues
ahead of the next upper level system. Best chances will be across
eastern parts of the CWA. The next chance for more organized
precipitation will be with that upper level system as it ejects to
the northeast over the area Monday into Tuesday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  29  38  19  29 /  10   5  10  20  40
San Angelo  62  30  44  23  32 /  10   0   5  10  20
Junction  61  28  46  28  36 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 250540
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Light rain has been falling across West Central TX over the past
few hours with the most significant radar echoes moving east of
the forecast terminals. However, a second wave of precipitation is
expected later tonight, mainly between 09-13z. This wave is
expected to bring snow to much of the area. In areas where snow is
occurring, visibilities will drop to around 2 miles (temporarily
less), with ceilings likely dropping to low-end MVFR. This
precipitation is expected to move east by 13z, with rapidly
improving conditions. Expect clear skies and northwest winds
around 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast package to encompass most of the Concho
Valley and Heartland into the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.
Light rain is falling over most of the area late this evening with
a few reports of freezing precipitation. The upper level system
responsible for this wintry weather has now moved over extreme
West Texas. The large area of shower activity now over the
forecast area will continue to move east out of the area through
the next several hours. As the upper level storm system tracks
east over the forecast area early tomorrow morning, a second round
of precipitation will bring snow to most of West Central Texas.
Not included in the Winter Weather Advisory are the northern Big
Country where locations may receive a light dusting of snow and
perhaps up to an inch accumulation, and the Interstate 10 Corridor
where little or no snow accumulation is expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Challenging flight conditions will develop/persist overnight. At
KABI, snow will develop overnight, with ceilings dropping to 1500
feet and visibilities dropping to near 2 miles. At KSJT, a mix of
rain and snow will develop, with ceilings of 1500 feet and
visibilities near 3 miles. Currently KBBD has ceilings of 800
feet, and these will improve to 1200 feet after midnight, with a
similar mix of rain/snow developing overnight. Ceilings will
maintain near their current values at KSOA and KJCT, generally in
the 1200 to 2000 feet range. Here, temperatures will remain above
freezing with rain developing after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact
track of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that
the current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about
a row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if
the track of the low digs a little more. The 12Z GFS and ECWMF
models were a little further south. The next concern is with
snowfall amounts. Right now the current thinking is on the
conservative side with 1 to 2 inches. Amounts could be higher as
sometimes these systems can produce dynamical cooling from aloft
and also convective snow bands.

Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half
inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be
upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south. Plan to
issue an SPS to highlight this concern. Temps should rebound
tomorrow into the 60s.

LONG TERM...
The next arctic cold front should arrive into West Central Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With a broad trough of low
pressure situated across the southern U.S., may see another round
of snow or rain and snow for Friday over a large part of the
region as areas of PVA track across the region. The snow may
continue along and north of Interstate 20 through Saturday and at
times turn to rain/snow south of Interstate 20. Have increased
pops into the chance category.

The cold, cloudy and wetter winter pattern will continue into
early next week as the amplified ridge across northwest Canada
and the upper trough across the CONUS persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  57  30  40  22 /  60  10   5  10  10
San Angelo  31  61  33  43  25 /  60  10   0   5  10
Junction  33  63  31  49  28 /  30  10   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Fisher...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 250540
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Light rain has been falling across West Central TX over the past
few hours with the most significant radar echoes moving east of
the forecast terminals. However, a second wave of precipitation is
expected later tonight, mainly between 09-13z. This wave is
expected to bring snow to much of the area. In areas where snow is
occurring, visibilities will drop to around 2 miles (temporarily
less), with ceilings likely dropping to low-end MVFR. This
precipitation is expected to move east by 13z, with rapidly
improving conditions. Expect clear skies and northwest winds
around 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast package to encompass most of the Concho
Valley and Heartland into the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.
Light rain is falling over most of the area late this evening with
a few reports of freezing precipitation. The upper level system
responsible for this wintry weather has now moved over extreme
West Texas. The large area of shower activity now over the
forecast area will continue to move east out of the area through
the next several hours. As the upper level storm system tracks
east over the forecast area early tomorrow morning, a second round
of precipitation will bring snow to most of West Central Texas.
Not included in the Winter Weather Advisory are the northern Big
Country where locations may receive a light dusting of snow and
perhaps up to an inch accumulation, and the Interstate 10 Corridor
where little or no snow accumulation is expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Challenging flight conditions will develop/persist overnight. At
KABI, snow will develop overnight, with ceilings dropping to 1500
feet and visibilities dropping to near 2 miles. At KSJT, a mix of
rain and snow will develop, with ceilings of 1500 feet and
visibilities near 3 miles. Currently KBBD has ceilings of 800
feet, and these will improve to 1200 feet after midnight, with a
similar mix of rain/snow developing overnight. Ceilings will
maintain near their current values at KSOA and KJCT, generally in
the 1200 to 2000 feet range. Here, temperatures will remain above
freezing with rain developing after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact
track of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that
the current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about
a row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if
the track of the low digs a little more. The 12Z GFS and ECWMF
models were a little further south. The next concern is with
snowfall amounts. Right now the current thinking is on the
conservative side with 1 to 2 inches. Amounts could be higher as
sometimes these systems can produce dynamical cooling from aloft
and also convective snow bands.

Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half
inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be
upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south. Plan to
issue an SPS to highlight this concern. Temps should rebound
tomorrow into the 60s.

LONG TERM...
The next arctic cold front should arrive into West Central Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With a broad trough of low
pressure situated across the southern U.S., may see another round
of snow or rain and snow for Friday over a large part of the
region as areas of PVA track across the region. The snow may
continue along and north of Interstate 20 through Saturday and at
times turn to rain/snow south of Interstate 20. Have increased
pops into the chance category.

The cold, cloudy and wetter winter pattern will continue into
early next week as the amplified ridge across northwest Canada
and the upper trough across the CONUS persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  57  30  40  22 /  60  10   5  10  10
San Angelo  31  61  33  43  25 /  60  10   0   5  10
Junction  33  63  31  49  28 /  30  10   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Fisher...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 250454
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1054 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast package to encompass most of the Concho
Valley and Heartland into the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.
Light rain is falling over most of the area late this evening with
a few reports of freezing precipitation. The upper level system
responsible for this wintry weather has now moved over extreme
West Texas. The large area of shower activity now over the
forecast area will continue to move east out of the area through
the next several hours. As the upper level storm system tracks
east over the forecast area early tomorrow morning, a second round
of precipitation will bring snow to most of West Central Texas.
Not included in the Winter Weather Advisory are the northern Big
Country where locations may receive a light dusting of snow and
perhaps up to an inch accumulation, and the Interstate 10 Corridor
where little or no snow accumulation is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Challenging flight conditions will develop/persist overnight. At
KABI, snow will develop overnight, with ceilings dropping to 1500
feet and visibilities dropping to near 2 miles. At KSJT, a mix of
rain and snow will develop, with ceilings of 1500 feet and
visibilities near 3 miles. Currently KBBD has ceilings of 800
feet, and these will improve to 1200 feet after midnight, with a
similar mix of rain/snow developing overnight. Ceilings will
maintain near their current values at KSOA and KJCT, generally in
the 1200 to 2000 feet range. Here, temperatures will remain above
freezing with rain developing after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
Main concern is with the amount of snow tonight and the exact track
of the compact and potent upper low. It is possible that the
current Winter Weather Advisory may need to be extended about a
row of counties to the south which would include San Angelo if the
track of the low digs a little more. The 12Z GFS and ECWMF models
were a little further south. The next concern is with snowfall
amounts. Right now the current thinking is on the conservative side
with 1 to 2 inches. Amounts could be higher as sometimes these
systems can produce dynamical cooling from aloft and also convective
snow bands.

Went with rain/snow for San Angelo to San Saba with about a half
inch but this is the area to be watched that may need to be
upgraded if the upper low shifts a little further south. Plan to
issue an SPS to highlight this concern. Temps should rebound tomorrow
into the 60s.

LONG TERM...
The next arctic cold front should arrive into West Central Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With a broad trough of low
pressure situated across the southern U.S., may see another round of
snow or rain and snow for Friday over a large part of the region as
areas of PVA track across the region. The snow may continue along
and north of Interstate 20 through Saturday and at times turn to
rain/snow south of Interstate 20. Have increased pops into the
chance category.

The cold, cloudy and wetter winter pattern will continue into early
next week as the amplified ridge across northwest Canada and the
upper trough across the CONUS persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  57  30  40  22 /  60  10   5  10  10
San Angelo  31  61  33  43  25 /  60  10   0   5  10
Junction  33  63  31  49  28 /  30  10   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Fisher...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99






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