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000
FXUS64 KSJT 252315
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/
VFR expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure remains over
the area. Expect Light southwest winds at 10 kt or less through
tomorrow.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

The upper level ridge centered overhead has resulted in sunny skies
and very warm temperatures again today. Temperatures were mainly in
the mid to upper 80s, with a few lower 90s just north and east of
the Big Country. The record highs today for both San Angelo and
Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. The records will probably
just be out of reach, but will continue to monitor. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north. Another very warm
day on Sunday with highs mainly in the mid 80s to around 90. Low
level southerly flow will increase, with speeds of 10 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM...

(Monday through Saturday)

The upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains this
weekend will give way to a broad trough by Tuesday. This allows a
cold front to drop into West Central Texas for Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Low level moisture riding up and over the frontal
boundary will produce a few showers and storms, mainly across the
are east of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Moderately cooler air
mass behind the front too, with afternoon highs dropping about 10
degrees from Monday to Tuesday afternoon, although that is really
just getting back down to normal.

Much weaker upper level ridge follows the trough through the area.
Guidance suggests temperatures pretty close to normal with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Dry for late in the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  88  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  58  88  61  87  57 /   0   0   0   5  10
Junction  57  86  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08









000
FXUS64 KSJT 252036
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

The upper level ridge centered overhead has resulted in sunny skies
and very warm temperatures again today. Temperatures were mainly in
the mid to upper 80s, with a few lower 90s just north and east of
the Big Country. The record highs today for both San Angelo and
Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. The records will probably
just be out of reach, but will continue to monitor. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north. Another very warm
day on Sunday with highs mainly in the mid 80s to around 90. Low
level southerly flow will increase, with speeds of 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...

(Monday through Saturday)

The upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains this
weekend will give way to a broad trough by Tuesday. This allows a
cold front to drop into West Central Texas for Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Low level moisture riding up and over the frontal
boundary will produce a few showers and storms, mainly across the
are east of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Moderately cooler air
mass behind the front too, with afternoon highs dropping about 10
degrees from Monday to Tuesday afternoon, although that is really
just getting back down to normal.

Much weaker upper level ridge follows the trough through the area.
Guidance suggests temperatures pretty close to normal with highs
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Dry for late in the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  88  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  58  88  61  87  57 /   0   0   0   5  10
Junction  57  86  56  83  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 251713
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect light winds through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Patchy fog may develop at KSOA through 14Z...with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Expect light winds through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The main weather story for West Central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across West Central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday.  There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730Z or 230 AM
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest.  This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The ECMWF and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well.  As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the lee of the
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.

The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 5H is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary.  There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation.  Have continued 20 POPs
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday.  Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains.  Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country.  This means drier and seasonable temperatures
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  62  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  88  58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction  86  57  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 251713
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect light winds through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Patchy fog may develop at KSOA through 14Z...with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Expect light winds through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The main weather story for West Central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across West Central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday.  There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730Z or 230 AM
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest.  This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The ECMWF and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well.  As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the lee of the
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.

The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 5H is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary.  There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation.  Have continued 20 POPs
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday.  Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains.  Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country.  This means drier and seasonable temperatures
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  62  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  88  58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction  86  57  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 251135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Patchy fog may develop at KSOA through 14Z...with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Expect light winds through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The main weather story for West Central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across West Central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday.  There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730Z or 230 AM
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest.  This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The ECMWF and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well.  As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the lee of the
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.

The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 5H is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary.  There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation.  Have continued 20 POPs
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday.  Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains.  Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country.  This means drier and seasonable temperatures
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  62  87  61  87 /   0   0   5   0   5
San Angelo  88  58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction  86  57  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 251135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will dominate across the terminals the next 24
hours. Patchy fog may develop at KSOA through 14Z...with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Expect light winds through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The main weather story for West Central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across West Central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday.  There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730Z or 230 AM
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest.  This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The ECMWF and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well.  As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the lee of the
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.

The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 5H is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary.  There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation.  Have continued 20 POPs
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday.  Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains.  Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country.  This means drier and seasonable temperatures
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  62  87  61  87 /   0   0   5   0   5
San Angelo  88  58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction  86  57  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 250907
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
407 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The main weather story for West Central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across West Central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday.  There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730Z or 230 AM
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest.  This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The ECMWF and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well.  As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the lee of the
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.

The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 5H is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary.  There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation.  Have continued 20 POPs
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday.  High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday.  Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains.  Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country.  This means drier and seasonable temperatures
on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  62  87  61  87 /   0   0   5   0   5
San Angelo  88  58  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction  86  57  86  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 250438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Patchy fog possible again late tonight for southern TAF locations.
Surface high remains over west central Texas tonight...with light
winds and clear skies expected. Temperatures are falling toward the
dewpoint already across parts of the Hill Country and Edwards
Plateau. Expect another round of fog by morning for southern areas
and locations near lakes and river valleys. Have kept MVFR and brief
IFR for KSJT, KSOA and KJCT near sunrise, with a quick burnoff by
14Z. Otherwise...light winds and VFR expected for the rest of the
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will develop around 08z tonight at KSJT, KSOA, and
KJCT. This will result in IFR visibilities at KSJT/KSOA, with MVFR
visibilities expected at KJCT. These visibilities will improve after
14z. The remaining terminals will maintain VFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Fairly quiet weather across West Central Texas through Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure aloft almost directly overhead.
Much of the area, especially the low lying river valleys and
lakeshores, saw patchy fog early this morning. Give that light south
winds have continued to increase low level moisture, and radiational
cooling tonight will again allow temperatures to drop, think some
patchy light fog will redevelop by sunrise Saturday morning. Don`t
think it will be quite as thick as it was this morning, and a little
faster to dissipate.

Otherwise, not much change in temperatures likely. The coldest spots
tonight will again be the normal low lying areas that see the best
cold air drainage. Highs on Saturday climbing into the mid to upper
80s area-wide.

07

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

The upper level high, over central Texas Saturday evening, will be
suppressed south over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This to
occur as an upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest toward the
northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday and
Monday, with highs well-above normal for this point in October.
These highs are expected to be about 2-3 degrees short of the
record highs for Abilene and San Angelo. South winds will increase
become gusty on Sunday, continuing on Monday with lee side surface
trough development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending a
cold front south into our northern counties by early Tuesday morning.
The front will move south at a slower pace on Tuesday, possibly
stalling just south of our counties Tuesday night. The models have
been hinting at a possibility for some elevated convection
developing north of the front in our central and southern counties
Tuesday night and Wednesday, when a weaker shortwave may enter Texas
from the west. With mid-level instability and sufficient moisture
progged to be in place, keeping the slight PoPs at this time for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into our area
behind the front, and should have highs in the mid/upper 70s on
Wednesday.

Looks dry for late week, with a reinforcing cold front arriving late
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  56  88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08









000
FXUS64 KSJT 242317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will develop around 08z tonight at KSJT, KSOA, and
KJCT. This will result in IFR visibilities at KSJT/KSOA, with MVFR
visibilities expected at KJCT. These visibilities will improve after
14z. The remaining terminals will maintain VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Fairly quiet weather across West Central Texas through Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure aloft almost directly overhead.
Much of the area, especially the low lying river valleys and
lakeshores, saw patchy fog early this morning. Give that light south
winds have continued to increase low level moisture, and radiational
cooling tonight will again allow temperatures to drop, think some
patchy light fog will redevelop by sunrise Saturday morning. Don`t
think it will be quite as thick as it was this morning, and a little
faster to dissipate.

Otherwise, not much change in temperatures likely. The coldest spots
tonight will again be the normal low lying areas that see the best
cold air drainage. Highs on Saturday climbing into the mid to upper
80s area-wide.

07

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

The upper level high, over central Texas Saturday evening, will be
suppressed south over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This to
occur as an upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest toward the
northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday and
Monday, with highs well-above normal for this point in October.
These highs are expected to be about 2-3 degrees short of the
record highs for Abilene and San Angelo. South winds will increase
become gusty on Sunday, continuing on Monday with lee side surface
trough development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending a
cold front south into our northern counties by early Tuesday morning.
The front will move south at a slower pace on Tuesday, possibly
stalling just south of our counties Tuesday night. The models have
been hinting at a possibility for some elevated convection
developing north of the front in our central and southern counties
Tuesday night and Wednesday, when a weaker shortwave may enter Texas
from the west. With mid-level instability and sufficient moisture
progged to be in place, keeping the slight PoPs at this time for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into our area
behind the front, and should have highs in the mid/upper 70s on
Wednesday.

Looks dry for late week, with a reinforcing cold front arriving late
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  56  88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/15/60









000
FXUS64 KSJT 242058
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Fairly quiet weather across West Central Texas through Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure aloft almost directly overhead.
Much of the area, especially the low lying river valleys and
lakeshores, saw patchy fog early this morning. Give that light south
winds have continued to increase low level moisture, and radiational
cooling tonight will again allow temperatures to drop, think some
patchy light fog will redevelop by sunrise Saturday morning. Dont
think it will be quite as thick as it was this morning, and a little
faster to dissipate.

Otherwise, not much change in temperatures likely. The coldest spots
tonight will again be the normal low lying areas that see the best
cold air drainage. Highs on Saturday climbing into the mid to upper
80s areawide.

07

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)

The upper level high, over central Texas Saturday evening, will be
suppressed south over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This to
occur as an upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest toward the
northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions will continue Sunday and
Monday, with highs well-above normal for this point in October.
These highs are expected to be about 2-3 degrees short of the
record highs for Abilene and San Angelo. South winds will increase
become gusty on Sunday, continuing on Monday with lee side surface
trough development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending a
cold front south into our northern counties by early Tuesday morning.
The front will move south at a slower pace on Tuesday, possibly
stalling just south of our counties Tuesday night. The models have
been hinting at a possibility for some elevated convection
developing north of the front in our central and southern counties
Tuesday night and Wednesday, when a weaker shortwave may enter Texas
from the west. With mid-level instability and sufficient moisture
progged to be in place, keeping the slight PoPs at this time for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into our area
behind the front, and should have highs in the mid/upper 70s on
Wednesday.

Looks dry for late week, with a reinforcing cold front arriving late
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  56  88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 241731
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Patchy fog has dissipated across West Central Texas, leaving VFR
conditions and light south winds at about 10 knots across the
terminals. This general trend should continue well into the
overnight hours. However, we do expect another round of fog around
sunrise Saturday morning. Little hard to tell just how widespread
or thick it will be this far in advance, sure later forecasts will
refine it. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will produce MVFR visibilities at KSJT, KJCT and KSOA
through 14Z, otherwise VFR conditions expected across the terminals
today. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight. There may
be some patchy fog again early Saturday morning but will leave out
of the forecast at this time due to coverage uncertainty.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail across the West
Central Texas today as an upper level ridge builds east from the
Desert Southwest. There will be some patchy fog across southern and
western sections early this morning but this will burn off by mid
morning, with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day.
We`ll see above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
topping out in the mid and upper 80s across most of the area.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid and upper 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
Some patchy fog may develop again towards daybreak, primarily
across southern and southwest counties, where stronger radiational
cooling will lead to boundary layer saturation.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

A warm and dry forecast for this weekend into early next week, then
cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The combination of
an upper level ridge and low level south to southwest flow will
bring above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90. A cool front will move through West
Central Texas Monday night and Tuesday, bringing cooler air into the
area. Temperatures will be around seasonable values for Tuesday
through Friday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
50s. Will keep the slight chance POPS going Tuesday night and
Wednesday southeast of a Ozona to San Angelo to Coleman line.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  62  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  85  56  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  85  54  87  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07










000
FXUS64 KSJT 241141
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will produce MVFR visibilities at KSJT, KJCT and KSOA
through 14Z, otherwise VFR conditions expected across the terminals
today. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight. There may
be some patchy fog again early Saturday morning but will leave out
of the forecast at this time due to coverage uncertainty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail across the West
Central Texas today as an upper level ridge builds east from the
Desert Southwest. There will be some patchy fog across southern and
western sections early this morning but this will burn off by mid
morning, with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day.
We`ll see above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
topping out in the mid and upper 80s across most of the area.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid and upper 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
Some patchy fog may develop again towards daybreak, primarily
across southern and southwest counties, where stronger radiational
cooling will lead to boundary layer saturation.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

A warm and dry forecast for this weekend into early next week, then
cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The combination of
an upper level ridge and low level south to southwest flow will
bring above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90. A cool front will move through West
Central Texas Monday night and Tuesday, bringing cooler air into the
area. Temperatures will be around seasonable values for Tuesday
through Friday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
50s. Will keep the slight chance POPS going Tuesday night and
Wednesday southeast of a Ozona to San Angelo to Coleman line.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  61  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  85  58  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 240925
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail across the West
Central Texas today as an upper level ridge builds east from the
Desert Southwest. There will be some patchy fog across southern and
western sections early this morning but this will burn off by mid
morning, with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day.
We`ll see above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
topping out in the mid and upper 80s across most of the area.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid and upper 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
Some patchy fog may develop again towards daybreak, primarily
across southern and southwest counties, where stronger radiational
cooling will lead to boundary layer saturation.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

A warm and dry forecast for this weekend into early next week, then
cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The combination of
an upper level ridge and low level south to southwest flow will
bring above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90. A cool front will move through West
Central Texas Monday night and Tuesday, bringing cooler air into the
area. Temperatures will be around seasonable values for Tuesday
through Friday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
50s. Will keep the slight chance POPS going Tuesday night and
Wednesday southeast of a Ozona to San Angelo to Coleman line.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  61  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  85  58  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 240459
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for patchy fog to create MVFR visibility during the next 6
hours. Clear skies and surface dew point depressions of only a few
degrees will allow radiational fog to develop. Sonora is already
indicating 5SM. Plan for VFR conditions to again dominate by 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60/Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 240459
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for patchy fog to create MVFR visibility during the next 6
hours. Clear skies and surface dew point depressions of only a few
degrees will allow radiational fog to develop. Sonora is already
indicating 5SM. Plan for VFR conditions to again dominate by 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60/Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 232326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60









000
FXUS64 KSJT 232104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KSJT 231724
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low stratus developed this morning, mainly along the west of a
line from KSWW, to KSJT, to KSOA. These low clouds will continue
to erode over the next 1-2 hours, resulting in prevailing VFR
conditions through the afternoon and most of the overnight period.
As winds go light overnight, patchy fog may develop, resulting in
visibilities of 3-5 miles at the southern terminals. Otherwise,
expect south winds at 10 kts or less.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early
this morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of
the departing upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the
west. Under mostly sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under
mostly clear skies will be in the mid 50s to the around 60
degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday. As
the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the
country. Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs
next week and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect
cooler temperatures behind the front by mid week, with
temperatures returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  59  85  61  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  57  85  58  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
Junction  82  52  86  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early this
morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of the departing
upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the west. Under mostly
sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under mostly clear skies
will be in the mid 50s to the around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday.
As the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the country.
Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs next week
and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front by mid week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  85  61  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  58  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  56  84  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24














000
FXUS64 KSJT 230857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early this
morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of the departing
upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the west. Under mostly
sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under mostly clear skies
will be in the mid 50s to the around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday.
As the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the country.
Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs next week
and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front by mid week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  85  61  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  58  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  56  84  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24












000
FXUS64 KSJT 230428
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll/Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 230428
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll/Huber









000
FXUS64 KSJT 230240 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







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