Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KSJT 010919
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
419 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track slowly
northward across the Big Country early this morning, north of I-20.
A second area of convection, associated with the shortwave aloft
moving across the Big Bend region, was pushing into the Northern
Edwards Plateau near Ozona. Both of these areas represent the best
rain chances for West Central Texas today, with the shortwave
pushing east and out of the area for the afternoon hours. A fairly
diffuse dryline looks to set up across the western counties for the
afternoon hours, west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Lots of
sunshine will lead to warm temperatures and some low level
instability, but no upper support and weak convergence mitigate the
threat somewhat. Already carrying isolated PoPs to account for the
morning convection anyway and will just let this continue into the
afternoon to cover the  small chances of afternoon storms
redeveloping.

Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will continue. Highs in
the 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Surface trough and dry line will bisect West Central Texas along
an Ozona to Cross Plains to Throckmorton line Thursday afternoon.
However, a cap above 700 MB should prevent dry line storm
development. A strong cold front will push through West Central
Texas Friday morning, entering Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around daybreak, and moving south of I-10 by 1 PM. Dry air in the
mid levels should prevent all but a couple morning showers in San
Saba and Mason counties. North winds behind the front Friday
should be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Highs Friday will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Big Country to lower 80s along
the I-10 corridor. Cooler air will continue to advect into West
Central Texas Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s.

Return flow will begin Saturday night with isolated showers. A few
thunderstorms possible Sunday. A few dry line thunderstorms
possible Monday and Tuesday as a surface trough/low develops over
West Central Texas. With CAPES in the 1000-2000 J/KG range, a few
strong or even severe storms possible, although coverage is
likely to be sparse.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will need to monitor fire weather conditions on Thursday, and we may
approach critical conditions. Strong lee trough develops and allows
gusty southwest winds across much of the area. Drier air mass in
place by then, and will allow afternoon humidities to drop below 20%
for areas west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Wind speeds will be
a little marginal, and with recent rainfall, a lot of areas have
greened up, so will hold off on a watch and just mention elevated
fire weather conditions for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  66  92  64  72 /  20  10   5  10   5
San Angelo  84  65  93  64  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  79  64  90  66  83 /  30  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010919
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
419 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track slowly
northward across the Big Country early this morning, north of I-20.
A second area of convection, associated with the shortwave aloft
moving across the Big Bend region, was pushing into the Northern
Edwards Plateau near Ozona. Both of these areas represent the best
rain chances for West Central Texas today, with the shortwave
pushing east and out of the area for the afternoon hours. A fairly
diffuse dryline looks to set up across the western counties for the
afternoon hours, west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Lots of
sunshine will lead to warm temperatures and some low level
instability, but no upper support and weak convergence mitigate the
threat somewhat. Already carrying isolated PoPs to account for the
morning convection anyway and will just let this continue into the
afternoon to cover the  small chances of afternoon storms
redeveloping.

Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will continue. Highs in
the 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Surface trough and dry line will bisect West Central Texas along
an Ozona to Cross Plains to Throckmorton line Thursday afternoon.
However, a cap above 700 MB should prevent dry line storm
development. A strong cold front will push through West Central
Texas Friday morning, entering Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around daybreak, and moving south of I-10 by 1 PM. Dry air in the
mid levels should prevent all but a couple morning showers in San
Saba and Mason counties. North winds behind the front Friday
should be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Highs Friday will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Big Country to lower 80s along
the I-10 corridor. Cooler air will continue to advect into West
Central Texas Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s.

Return flow will begin Saturday night with isolated showers. A few
thunderstorms possible Sunday. A few dry line thunderstorms
possible Monday and Tuesday as a surface trough/low develops over
West Central Texas. With CAPES in the 1000-2000 J/KG range, a few
strong or even severe storms possible, although coverage is
likely to be sparse.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will need to monitor fire weather conditions on Thursday, and we may
approach critical conditions. Strong lee trough develops and allows
gusty southwest winds across much of the area. Drier air mass in
place by then, and will allow afternoon humidities to drop below 20%
for areas west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Wind speeds will be
a little marginal, and with recent rainfall, a lot of areas have
greened up, so will hold off on a watch and just mention elevated
fire weather conditions for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  66  92  64  72 /  20  10   5  10   5
San Angelo  84  65  93  64  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  79  64  90  66  83 /  30  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 010919
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
419 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track slowly
northward across the Big Country early this morning, north of I-20.
A second area of convection, associated with the shortwave aloft
moving across the Big Bend region, was pushing into the Northern
Edwards Plateau near Ozona. Both of these areas represent the best
rain chances for West Central Texas today, with the shortwave
pushing east and out of the area for the afternoon hours. A fairly
diffuse dryline looks to set up across the western counties for the
afternoon hours, west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Lots of
sunshine will lead to warm temperatures and some low level
instability, but no upper support and weak convergence mitigate the
threat somewhat. Already carrying isolated PoPs to account for the
morning convection anyway and will just let this continue into the
afternoon to cover the  small chances of afternoon storms
redeveloping.

Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will continue. Highs in
the 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Surface trough and dry line will bisect West Central Texas along
an Ozona to Cross Plains to Throckmorton line Thursday afternoon.
However, a cap above 700 MB should prevent dry line storm
development. A strong cold front will push through West Central
Texas Friday morning, entering Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around daybreak, and moving south of I-10 by 1 PM. Dry air in the
mid levels should prevent all but a couple morning showers in San
Saba and Mason counties. North winds behind the front Friday
should be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Highs Friday will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Big Country to lower 80s along
the I-10 corridor. Cooler air will continue to advect into West
Central Texas Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s.

Return flow will begin Saturday night with isolated showers. A few
thunderstorms possible Sunday. A few dry line thunderstorms
possible Monday and Tuesday as a surface trough/low develops over
West Central Texas. With CAPES in the 1000-2000 J/KG range, a few
strong or even severe storms possible, although coverage is
likely to be sparse.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will need to monitor fire weather conditions on Thursday, and we may
approach critical conditions. Strong lee trough develops and allows
gusty southwest winds across much of the area. Drier air mass in
place by then, and will allow afternoon humidities to drop below 20%
for areas west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Wind speeds will be
a little marginal, and with recent rainfall, a lot of areas have
greened up, so will hold off on a watch and just mention elevated
fire weather conditions for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  66  92  64  72 /  20  10   5  10   5
San Angelo  84  65  93  64  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  79  64  90  66  83 /  30  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010919
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
419 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track slowly
northward across the Big Country early this morning, north of I-20.
A second area of convection, associated with the shortwave aloft
moving across the Big Bend region, was pushing into the Northern
Edwards Plateau near Ozona. Both of these areas represent the best
rain chances for West Central Texas today, with the shortwave
pushing east and out of the area for the afternoon hours. A fairly
diffuse dryline looks to set up across the western counties for the
afternoon hours, west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Lots of
sunshine will lead to warm temperatures and some low level
instability, but no upper support and weak convergence mitigate the
threat somewhat. Already carrying isolated PoPs to account for the
morning convection anyway and will just let this continue into the
afternoon to cover the  small chances of afternoon storms
redeveloping.

Otherwise, well above normal temperatures will continue. Highs in
the 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Surface trough and dry line will bisect West Central Texas along
an Ozona to Cross Plains to Throckmorton line Thursday afternoon.
However, a cap above 700 MB should prevent dry line storm
development. A strong cold front will push through West Central
Texas Friday morning, entering Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around daybreak, and moving south of I-10 by 1 PM. Dry air in the
mid levels should prevent all but a couple morning showers in San
Saba and Mason counties. North winds behind the front Friday
should be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Highs Friday will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Big Country to lower 80s along
the I-10 corridor. Cooler air will continue to advect into West
Central Texas Saturday with morning lows in the 40s and highs in
the mid 60s.

Return flow will begin Saturday night with isolated showers. A few
thunderstorms possible Sunday. A few dry line thunderstorms
possible Monday and Tuesday as a surface trough/low develops over
West Central Texas. With CAPES in the 1000-2000 J/KG range, a few
strong or even severe storms possible, although coverage is
likely to be sparse.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will need to monitor fire weather conditions on Thursday, and we may
approach critical conditions. Strong lee trough develops and allows
gusty southwest winds across much of the area. Drier air mass in
place by then, and will allow afternoon humidities to drop below 20%
for areas west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Wind speeds will be
a little marginal, and with recent rainfall, a lot of areas have
greened up, so will hold off on a watch and just mention elevated
fire weather conditions for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  66  92  64  72 /  20  10   5  10   5
San Angelo  84  65  93  64  78 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  79  64  90  66  83 /  30  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 010415
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through most of the
night before degrading to MVFR and occasional IFR with the return
of stratus. Showers will affect KSJT shortly after midnight for several
hours. Ceilings will lift to VFR by mid-morning with southerly
winds gusting 15-20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  63  85  67  93 /  20  20  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  62  85  66  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
Junction  82  61  79  63  91 /  20  30  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010415
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through most of the
night before degrading to MVFR and occasional IFR with the return
of stratus. Showers will affect KSJT shortly after midnight for several
hours. Ceilings will lift to VFR by mid-morning with southerly
winds gusting 15-20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  63  85  67  93 /  20  20  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  62  85  66  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
Junction  82  61  79  63  91 /  20  30  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return later tonight. Returning stratus
will bring MVFR ceilings to Sonora, Brady, and Junction later
tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid morning tomorrow.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 312050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 312050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Main concerns for tonight and tomorrow will be thunderstorm
chances across the area.

Currently, there is an upper level low spinning over northwestern
Mexico with a lead shortwave moving into the area ahead of the
low. This lead shortwave, combined with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 80s, and a weakly convergent dryline should allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop to our west later this
afternoon. Isolated convection has already developed just west of
our area in Pecos and Mitchell counties. With surface based CAPE
values greater than 2000 J/kg, thunderstorms could quickly
strengthen. However, these storms are not expected to be well
organized as deep layer shear values currently remain below 30
knots. Better shear is expected to move into the area later this
evening, but we will likely lose instability, and storms will
weaken before then. So, with these limiting factors, we still
expect the majority of the activity to remain below severe levels.

Tomorrow, the main upper level low which is expected to weaken
into a flat trough will move across the area. Depending on the
timing of the wave, we could see additional thunderstorm
development across parts of the area tomorrow, generally east of
an Abilene to Ballinger to Sonora line, as the dryline mixes a bit
farther east tomorrow afternoon. Have kept the thunderstorm
chances in for tomorrow for the eastern 2/3 of the area with that
in mind. These will again have the chance to be strong
thunderstorms with CAPE values again around 2000 J/kg.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Very warm and dry conditions are still expected for our area on
Thursday, with low-level southwest flow and strong 850mb thermal
ridging. Dryline will mix east to roughly a Mineral Wells-
Brownwood-Ozona line by late afternoon.

An upper trough will move east from the Rockies across the central
and northern Plains, with associated fairly strong cold front
pushing south across our area on Friday. The 12Z models show better
agreement with timing of this front, although the GFS remains the
fastest with its progression. At this time, going closer to the NAM
which has the front reaching Brownwood and San Angelo by Noon, and
reaching the I-10 corridor by 3 PM. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, with temperatures much cooler behind it.
Still have some uncertainty with the highs, but expect a north-
south gradient based on the timing. The NAM could be overdone with
low-level moisture and implied cloud cover behind the front. Given
the strength of the cold air advection however, cannot rule
out the possibility of falling temperatures for our northern
counties if enough cloud cover develops.

A seasonably cool airmass will settle into our area Friday night
into Saturday, Mostly clear skies Friday night/Saturday morning
should give way to increasing cloud cover Saturday evening and
night, as low-level return flow develops.

Sunday into the first part of next week, west-southwest flow aloft
is progged over our area, with the possibility of a few passing
weak, embedded disturbances aloft. Dryline may approach our western
and northwestern border counties Sunday afternoon, with indications
for more eastward progress into our area Monday afternoon. With
these indications, forecast instability and convergence along the
dryline look sufficient to support low PoPs for much of our area
Sunday, and for some of our east and southeast counties Monday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  85  67  93  62 /  20  20  10   5  10
San Angelo  62  85  66  94  63 /  20  20  10   0   5
Junction  61  79  63  91  64 /  30  30  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions have returned to the area early this afternoon.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds continue to stream over the
area with southwest winds at the surface. Generally VFR conditions
will continue through the evening hours. There is a chance for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon. However,
the coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for a mention
in the TAFs for our area. Will update if necessary. With southerly
low level flow continuing through tonight, expect to see a return
of MVFR CIGS at our southern sites. Less confidence in these CIGS
making it as far north as KSJT and KABI, so will only show a SCT
MVFR group at SJT for now. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

High clouds streaming across West Central Texas early this morning
are making it extremely difficult to find the MVFR ceilings
underneath it. Its there, with the southern terminals all showing
cigs at 1000 to 1500 feet. This lower deck may creep as far north
as KSJT (San Angelo), but should be short lived and should lift
and dissipate from all locations by mid to late morning.
Otherwise, shower and storm chances late this afternoon and
evening still look spotty. Given the uncertainty in timing and
locations, have not included in the terminal forecasts at this
point. But as the situation evolves today and the certainty
increases, a mention of the storms may well be needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  20  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions have returned to the area early this afternoon.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds continue to stream over the
area with southwest winds at the surface. Generally VFR conditions
will continue through the evening hours. There is a chance for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon. However,
the coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for a mention
in the TAFs for our area. Will update if necessary. With southerly
low level flow continuing through tonight, expect to see a return
of MVFR CIGS at our southern sites. Less confidence in these CIGS
making it as far north as KSJT and KABI, so will only show a SCT
MVFR group at SJT for now. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

High clouds streaming across West Central Texas early this morning
are making it extremely difficult to find the MVFR ceilings
underneath it. Its there, with the southern terminals all showing
cigs at 1000 to 1500 feet. This lower deck may creep as far north
as KSJT (San Angelo), but should be short lived and should lift
and dissipate from all locations by mid to late morning.
Otherwise, shower and storm chances late this afternoon and
evening still look spotty. Given the uncertainty in timing and
locations, have not included in the terminal forecasts at this
point. But as the situation evolves today and the certainty
increases, a mention of the storms may well be needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  20  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 311125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

High clouds streaming across West Central Texas early this morning
are making it extremely difficult to find the MVFR ceilings
underneath it. Its there, with the southern terminals all showing
cigs at 1000 to 1500 feet. This lower deck may creep as far north
as KSJT (San Angelo), but should be short lived and should lift
and dissipate from all locations by mid to late morning.
Otherwise, shower and storm chances late this afternoon and
evening still look spotty. Given the uncertainty in timing and
locations, have not included in the terminal forecasts at this
point. But as the situation evolves today and the certainty
increases, a mention of the storms may well be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  20  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

High clouds streaming across West Central Texas early this morning
are making it extremely difficult to find the MVFR ceilings
underneath it. Its there, with the southern terminals all showing
cigs at 1000 to 1500 feet. This lower deck may creep as far north
as KSJT (San Angelo), but should be short lived and should lift
and dissipate from all locations by mid to late morning.
Otherwise, shower and storm chances late this afternoon and
evening still look spotty. Given the uncertainty in timing and
locations, have not included in the terminal forecasts at this
point. But as the situation evolves today and the certainty
increases, a mention of the storms may well be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  20  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 310913
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  30  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 310913
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
413 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest high resolution models like the TTU WRF continue to show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Trans
Pecos this afternoon and spreading into West Central Texas this
evening and tonight. Temperatures well into the 80s and surface
dewpoints in the 50s will lead to decent instability, above 1500
J/kg, although shear remains a little weak. The cap will be an issue
for much of the day, but given daytime heating and the approach of a
weakening shortwave from northern Mexico, getting scattered
convection much like the WRF indicates seems perfectly reasonable.
System is a little slower than yesterday, so did trim back the PoP
chances from San Angelo to Abilene for this afternoon, but generally
left most of the PoPs alone for this afternoon and tonight.

High clouds streaming across the area will keep temperatures down a
few degrees this afternoon. Warmest locations across the Big Country
north of I-20, where the thickest high clouds will be the last to
reach. Mild tonight, with overnight lows remaining at or above the
60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A weak upper shortwave will move across the region Wednesday, and
could touch off isolated thunderstorms. Not looking for a large
severe outbreak. 0-6 KM shears of 30 KTS were not very impressive.
The upper shortwave will also be east of the region at maximum
heating. Still, with SB CAPES up to 1500 J/KG east of a dryline
extending from Iraan to Colorado City, a few storms could be
become strong, with one or two possibly severe.

It will be warm on Thursday as the dryline pushes east of the Big
Country, along a Mineral Wells to Junction line. Storm
development, if it occurs, should be east of West Central Texas.

A strong cold front will drop through West Central Texas Thursday,
bringing cooler temperatures. While there is a small potential for
a few showers in eastern sections from Brownwood to Junction in
the morning, with dry westerly winds ahead of the front and
limited moisture, will keep the forecast dry during this time
period.

A few showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend, with the
best chance on Sunday, as a weak shortwave passes over the
region. At this point instability appears weak with the best CAPES
around 1000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Good warming expected Monday
with the dryline moving just east of West Central Texas in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  62  83  64  94 /  20  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  86  61  84  62  95 /  30  30  20  10   0
Junction  82  60  78  62  92 /  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 310446
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Little change in forecast reasoning this forecast cycle. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals
after 08Z. Stratus will scatter out after 15Z, with VFR thereafter.
Could see some convection develop west of the terminals after 21Z
Tuesday. Some of this activity may approach the KSJT and KABI
terminals during the early evening hours before weakening but
confidence remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 310446
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Little change in forecast reasoning this forecast cycle. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals
after 08Z. Stratus will scatter out after 15Z, with VFR thereafter.
Could see some convection develop west of the terminals after 21Z
Tuesday. Some of this activity may approach the KSJT and KABI
terminals during the early evening hours before weakening but
confidence remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 302350
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 302350
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 302350
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 302350
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the southern terminals late
tonight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. Convection may develop west of the terminals towards the
end of the forecast period, possibly affecting the terminals
Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 302049 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19











000
FXUS64 KSJT 302049 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19










000
FXUS64 KSJT 302049 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19










000
FXUS64 KSJT 302049 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring the
shortwave trough a little slower across our area, have expanded the
slight chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for
Wednesday, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will
decrease in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area
and drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19











000
FXUS64 KSJT 302047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring
the shortwave trough across our area, have expanded the slight
chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for Wednesday,
mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will decrease
in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area and
drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring
the shortwave trough across our area, have expanded the slight
chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for Wednesday,
mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will decrease
in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area and
drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19









000
FXUS64 KSJT 302047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring
the shortwave trough across our area, have expanded the slight
chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for Wednesday,
mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will decrease
in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area and
drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

The main concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorm
chances for Tuesday afternoon.

Currently, an upper level low west of the Baja Peninsula continues
to move slowly toward the western Mexico coast. By early Tuesday
afternoon, the low will have opened into a much weaker wave as it
moves across northern Mexico. In the low levels, south to
southeasterly flow will bring moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. A dryline is expected to set up
just west of our CWA by mid afternoon resulting in low level
convergence, and a focus for thunderstorm development. Depending
on the model, surface based CAPE values range from around 1000
J/kg up to around 2000 J/kg. Soundings show the `cap` breaking
during the mid to later afternoon hours for our western areas,
mainly along and west of an Ozona, to Mertzon, to Sweetwater line.
If we see thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, expect the
initial activity and best chances to be along and west of a
Sterling City to Mertzon to Ozona line, and have adjusted PoPs
upward here. Still expect the activity to be scattered, so have
not gone higher than chance yet, but these PoPs may be increased
on tonight`s overnight forecast shift. With those previously
mentioned CAPE values, there is the potential for a few storms to
strengthen quickly to near severe levels. However, shear is less
impressive in our area, with 0-6 km bulk shear values expected
to range from 15 to 25 knots. So, while marginally severe storms
are possible, most storms will just produce small hail, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning. Highs tomorrow should warm well
into the mid to upper 80s across the entire area.

Tonight, quiet weather can be expected with warmer temperatures as
southeasterly winds bring moisture into the area. Much of the area
will only get down into the lower 60s. However, will show cooler
lows in the 50s for the valley locations along the I-10 corridor,
Brownwood, and around Sterling City.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

Have a chance for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night, as the shortwave upper trough moves east across
the Big Bend region. With the trend of the 12Z models to bring
the shortwave trough across our area, have expanded the slight
chance PoPs across the eastern half of our area for Wednesday,
mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will decrease
in the afternoon as the shortwave moves east of our area and
drier air moves in from the west.

Thursday looks very warm and dry for our area, with southwest
low-level flow and strong 850mb thermal ridging. Both the GFS
and ECMWF MOS have highs in the 90s for our area. Have increased
highs Thursday accordingly.

An upper trough will move east across the central and northern
Plains, with associated stronger cold front moving south across
our area late this week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
with the front, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster with its
arrival. This will have a significant influence on temperatures
Friday, and have low confidence in the forecast highs at this
time.

Return flow is indicated over the weekend with an increase in
moisture and destabilization of the airmass. Could have a few
embedded disturbances in west-southwest flow aloft entering the
area as well. With these factors and collaborative considerations,
carrying low PoPs for showers and thunderstorms, beginning
Saturday and continuing through Sunday night. Have a lingering
slight chance PoP across our eastern counties on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  61  86  63 /  10  20  30  10   5
San Angelo  60  87  61  86  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  60  83  60  81  62 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/19









000
FXUS64 KSJT 301712
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the end of
the day. After midnight MVFR ceilings will develop across the KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift to
VFR mid morning. Tomorrow morning, winds may become gusty from the
south across the KABI and KSJT terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  83  60  87  62 /  10  30  30  10   5
San Angelo  61  85  59  87  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  59  82  59  83  60 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18






000
FXUS64 KSJT 301712
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the end of
the day. After midnight MVFR ceilings will develop across the KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift to
VFR mid morning. Tomorrow morning, winds may become gusty from the
south across the KABI and KSJT terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  83  60  87  62 /  10  30  30  10   5
San Angelo  61  85  59  87  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  59  82  59  83  60 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18







000
FXUS64 KSJT 301712
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the end of
the day. After midnight MVFR ceilings will develop across the KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift to
VFR mid morning. Tomorrow morning, winds may become gusty from the
south across the KABI and KSJT terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  83  60  87  62 /  10  30  30  10   5
San Angelo  61  85  59  87  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  59  82  59  83  60 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18






000
FXUS64 KSJT 301712
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the end of
the day. After midnight MVFR ceilings will develop across the KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift to
VFR mid morning. Tomorrow morning, winds may become gusty from the
south across the KABI and KSJT terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  83  60  87  62 /  10  30  30  10   5
San Angelo  61  85  59  87  61 /  10  30  30  10   5
Junction  59  82  59  83  60 /  10  20  30  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18







000
FXUS64 KSJT 301103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will be VFR through the day. Stratus moving over
the southern terminals after midnight will lower ceilings to MVFR.
Winds will be light through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 301103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will be VFR through the day. Stratus moving over
the southern terminals after midnight will lower ceilings to MVFR.
Winds will be light through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 300857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper level ridging over the forecast area this morning will
deamplify through tonight with a northwest flow aloft becoming
pseudo-zonal by this afternoon. An upper low west of the Baja
Peninsula will move east over northern Mexico by tomorrow morning
with low to mid level moisture on the increase over the forecast
area. Partly cloudy skies this morning will becoming mostly cloudy
by this afternoon and overnight. Temperatures will be cooler today,
generally in the lower 80s, but still above seasonal norms. Tonight
will also be warmer than normal with morning lows on Tuesday in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Light easterly surface winds today
will become mostly light and southerly tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Made few changes to the ongoing forecasts, and there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with the system for Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. GFS continues to be weaker and drier, while other models
such as the ECMWF come in stronger and wetter. Part of the this
difference is the extent of low level moisture return, with the
GFS showing significantly less than other models. Given the
strength of the system seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery off
in the Pacific, and the tendency for the ECMWF to handle the
strength of these systems a little better, will tend towards a
slightly stronger system coming out as well. Latest TTU WRF also
suggest scattered convection with a little stronger system as
well, so will keep the slight chance to chance PoPs for Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as is.

System should be exiting to the west early Wednesday, although a
dryline may still remain across the eastern sections of the area
for Wednesday afternoon. Will not have any upper level support,
but given that the system may linger into the morning hours and
the threat of additional redevelopment in the afternoon, will add
slight chance PoPs into the forecast for Wednesday for areas
mainly east of an Abilene to Junction line. Will need to monitor
the dryline, and if it doesn`t make it as far east as projected, we
have to pull the storm chances a little farther west.

Dry and warm for mid to late week, with highs climbing into the
80s and lower 90s for Thursday as zonal flow prevails aloft. Another
weak cold front will move through on Friday and bring slightly
cooler conditions. As the strong surface high shifts into the
southeast US, strong low level return flow will pump plenty of
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Plenty of moisture and another weak shortwave will set the
stage for more scattered showers and storms for next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  62  83  60  87 /   0  10  30  30  10
San Angelo  83  61  85  59  87 /   5  10  30  20  10
Junction  83  59  82  59  83 /   5  10  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 300444
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Still could see some scattered stratus develop across the
southern terminals early Monday morning but confidence remains
low that this will occur. Expect light winds through the period
with an increase in highs clouds from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300444
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Still could see some scattered stratus develop across the
southern terminals early Monday morning but confidence remains
low that this will occur. Expect light winds through the period
with an increase in highs clouds from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 300444
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Still could see some scattered stratus develop across the
southern terminals early Monday morning but confidence remains
low that this will occur. Expect light winds through the period
with an increase in highs clouds from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300444
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Still could see some scattered stratus develop across the
southern terminals early Monday morning but confidence remains
low that this will occur. Expect light winds through the period
with an increase in highs clouds from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 300035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.UPDATE...
To adjust current temperatures...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is currently along a San Angelo...to
Ballinger...to Cross Plains line and will continue to move south
through the evening. Temperatures across much of the Big Country
have fallen into the 70s and the current grids were tweaked to
match the current trends. Winds were also tweaked slightly to
match the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 292357
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 292357
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 292357
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 292357
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A weak cold front currently near Abilene will move slowly south
across the area this evening. The front will weaken with time
and will likely not make it to the Junction terminal before
stalling. Winds will shift to the north behind the front but
gusty winds will be confined to mainly the KABI terminal for the
next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail for the most
part but could see some scattered to possible broken MVFR stratus
develop across the southern terminals early Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 292050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 292050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A cold front has moved south into the north and northwest part of
our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon. This front will
continue to push south through this evening, and should reach a
Mertzon-San Angel-Coleman line between 7 PM and 8 PM. With the
front weakening, its forward progress will decrease tonight. The
front should stall near or just beyond the southeast and southern
border of our CWA by early Monday morning. The NAM low-level
moisture fields favor low cloud development across some of our
eastern and southern counties early Monday morning. At a minimum,
expect an increase in high cloud coverage overnight into Monday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with afternoon highs mostly in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main concerns with the long range forecast will be rain
chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, and a strong cold front at the
end of the week.

The upper level low currently west of the northern Baja Peninsula
will be moving into the Baja Peninsula by Monday night, and then
across northern Mexico on Tuesday. Models agree well that the low
will open up into a wave and weaken significantly as it approaches
our area. Monday night low level flow will back ahead of the low,
resulting in warmer overnight lows as additional moisture is
advected into the area. We may also see a few isolated
thunderstorms for the southeastern 2/3 of the area with the
moisture increase, and weak embedded shortwaves move across the
area ahead of the main trough. As synoptic lift from the main
trough moves in Tuesday and Tuesday night, rain chances increase,
and we have not made any significant changes to the inherited PoP
configuration with chance PoPs Tuesday for western areas, and then
Tuesday night generally for the eastern half of the area. With mid
level lapse rates from 7-9 degrees C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear
values from 25 to 35 knots, there will be the potential for some
of the thunderstorms to become organized and produce some hail
and/or strong wind gusts. We do not expect more than one or two
storms to approach severe levels, but it can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow will follow the trough from Wednesday through the end
of the week. On Friday as a large trough strengthens over the
Great Lakes area, a strong cold front will move into the area.
850mb temperatures drop roughly 20 degrees Celsius from Friday to
Saturday over west central Texas behind the front according to the
GFS. Raw model data suggest temperatures may not even warm into
the 60s for Saturday. However, we will not go that cold. Models
also show weak shortwave energy moving across the area over the
top of the cold air mass in west/southwest flow, so will keep a
slight chance of precipitation in the forecast over the weekend as
well.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  61  83  60 /   5   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  53  82  60  85  58 /   0   5  20  30  20
Junction  54  82  57  82  59 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 291759 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation concerns are with timing of the cold front and
wind speeds immediately behind it later this afternoon and evening,
and with the possibility for low cloud development with MVFR
ceilings at our southern terminals, early Monday morning. The
cold front will push south into our northwestern counties 2-3pm,
reaching KABI 4-5pm. The front should reach KSJT 7-8pm. Gusty
north winds are expected immediately behind the front at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. The front will weaken this
evening and tonight, and could stall just south and southeast
of our counties overnight. Carrying a wind shift around Midnight
at KBBD and KSOA, but not for KJCT. Models differ on low-level
moisture fields early Monday morning, and have uncertainty on
whether low cloud development may affect our southern TAF sites.
At this time, carrying a scattered layer 1500-2000ft at KSOA, KJCT
and KBBD. In addition to an expected increase in high cloud
coverage, could have VFR-based cloud development during the day
Monday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  61  83 /   0   5   5  10  30
San Angelo  94  53  82  60  85 /   0   0   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  82  57  82 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 291759 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation concerns are with timing of the cold front and
wind speeds immediately behind it later this afternoon and evening,
and with the possibility for low cloud development with MVFR
ceilings at our southern terminals, early Monday morning. The
cold front will push south into our northwestern counties 2-3pm,
reaching KABI 4-5pm. The front should reach KSJT 7-8pm. Gusty
north winds are expected immediately behind the front at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. The front will weaken this
evening and tonight, and could stall just south and southeast
of our counties overnight. Carrying a wind shift around Midnight
at KBBD and KSOA, but not for KJCT. Models differ on low-level
moisture fields early Monday morning, and have uncertainty on
whether low cloud development may affect our southern TAF sites.
At this time, carrying a scattered layer 1500-2000ft at KSOA, KJCT
and KBBD. In addition to an expected increase in high cloud
coverage, could have VFR-based cloud development during the day
Monday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  61  83 /   0   5   5  10  30
San Angelo  94  53  82  60  85 /   0   0   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  82  57  82 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 291759 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation concerns are with timing of the cold front and
wind speeds immediately behind it later this afternoon and evening,
and with the possibility for low cloud development with MVFR
ceilings at our southern terminals, early Monday morning. The
cold front will push south into our northwestern counties 2-3pm,
reaching KABI 4-5pm. The front should reach KSJT 7-8pm. Gusty
north winds are expected immediately behind the front at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. The front will weaken this
evening and tonight, and could stall just south and southeast
of our counties overnight. Carrying a wind shift around Midnight
at KBBD and KSOA, but not for KJCT. Models differ on low-level
moisture fields early Monday morning, and have uncertainty on
whether low cloud development may affect our southern TAF sites.
At this time, carrying a scattered layer 1500-2000ft at KSOA, KJCT
and KBBD. In addition to an expected increase in high cloud
coverage, could have VFR-based cloud development during the day
Monday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  61  83 /   0   5   5  10  30
San Angelo  94  53  82  60  85 /   0   0   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  82  57  82 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 291759 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation concerns are with timing of the cold front and
wind speeds immediately behind it later this afternoon and evening,
and with the possibility for low cloud development with MVFR
ceilings at our southern terminals, early Monday morning. The
cold front will push south into our northwestern counties 2-3pm,
reaching KABI 4-5pm. The front should reach KSJT 7-8pm. Gusty
north winds are expected immediately behind the front at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. The front will weaken this
evening and tonight, and could stall just south and southeast
of our counties overnight. Carrying a wind shift around Midnight
at KBBD and KSOA, but not for KJCT. Models differ on low-level
moisture fields early Monday morning, and have uncertainty on
whether low cloud development may affect our southern TAF sites.
At this time, carrying a scattered layer 1500-2000ft at KSOA, KJCT
and KBBD. In addition to an expected increase in high cloud
coverage, could have VFR-based cloud development during the day
Monday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  61  83 /   0   5   5  10  30
San Angelo  94  53  82  60  85 /   0   0   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  82  57  82 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities