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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201032 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
456 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Some lingering light rain showers with possibly a few very isolated
embedded thunderstorms will continue to move toward the northeast
through the forecast area early today. These showers are associated
with a vigorous upper level trough moving in from the west causing
lifting across the forecast area. Rain coverage may become a little
greater by midday to early afternoon due to warming of the ground
surface but should remain light and mostly one-tenth of an inch or
less.

This evening, a dry line boundary will move east into northern and
western portions of the forecast area and this boundary may result
in the formation of a new shower line with embedded thunderstorms
most dominate west and north of Tom Green County. There is a slight
chance some storms could become severe with lightning, hail and
gusty winds being the main threats. Rainfall accumulations are
expected to be mostly one quarter of an inch or less, but a few
isolated locations in northwest counties that including Fisher,
Haskell, Nolan, Jones and Throckmorton may see very localized areas
of rain of one half of an inch. Winds will be from the south at 12
to 18 mph on Sunday with mostly cloudy skies mixed with a few short
periods of partly cloudy skies.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

The short wave trough will push east of the area early Monday with a
weak cold front entering the Big Country by mid to late morning. The
front will move slowly south across the area during the afternoon
and is expected to be along or just north of the I-10 corridor by
late afternoon. Models have bee persistent in generating convection
along the front across southern sections Monday afternoon and early
evening. The airmass ahead of the front is expected to become
moderately unstable by afternoon with 0 to 6 KM shear around 30 KT.
This would support a few strong to severe storms into Monday evening
with the main threat being large hail and strong winds. Kept slight
chance to chance POP`s going for areas south of a Cross Plains to
Ozona line Monday afternoon and evening.

Dry and warm weather continues on Tuesday as upper level ridging
builds across the Plains. The next chance for precipitation will be
Wednesday afternoon and evening as the next upper level trough moves
east across the Rockies and into the Plains. Looks like an active
dryline scenario with convection firing across western sections by
late afternoon, then spreading east across the area during the
evening hours. Kept POP`s at 20 percent for now but these may need
to be increased later as confidence increases.

Quasi zonal flow aloft develops Thursday and Friday with dry and
warm conditions prevailing. May see another chance for precipitation
next weekend as another potential upper level trough affects the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  62  83  59  83 /  50  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  79  62  85  59  84 /  30  10  20  10   5
Junction  76  63  83  60  85 /  30  10  30  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

22/24













000
FXUS64 KSJT 201004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
456 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Some lingering light rain showers with possibly a few very isolated
embedded thunderstorms will continue to move toward the northeast
through the forecast area early today. These showers are associated
with a vigorous upper level trough moving in from the west causing
lifting across the forecast area. Rain coverage may become a little
greater by midday to early afternoon due to warming of the ground
surface but should remain light and mostly one-tenth of an inch or
less.

This evening, a dry line boundary will move east into northern and
western portions of the forecast area and this boundary may result
in the formation of a new shower line with embedded thunderstorms
most dominate west and north of Tom Green County. There is a slight
chance some storms could become severe with lightning, hail and
gusty winds being the main threats. Rainfall accumulations are
expected to be mostly one quarter of an inch or less, but a few
isolated locations in northwest counties that including Fisher,
Haskell, Nolan, Jones and Throckmorton may see very localized areas
of rain of one half of an inch. Winds will be from the south at 12
to 18 mph on Sunday with mostly cloudy skies mixed with a few short
periods of partly cloudy skies.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

The short wave trough will push east of the area early Monday with a
weak cold front entering the Big Country by mid to late morning. The
front will move slowly south across the area during the afternoon
and is expected to be along or just north of the I-10 corridor by
late afternoon. Models have bee persistent in generating convection
along the front across southern sections Monday afternoon and early
evening. The airmass ahead of the front is expected to become
moderately unstable by afternoon with 0 to 6 KM shear around 30 KT.
This would support a few strong to severe storms into Monday evening
with the main threat being large hail and strong winds. Kept slight
chance to chance POP`s going for areas south of a Cross Plains to
Ozona line Monday afternoon and evening.

Dry and warm weather continues on Thursday as upper level ridging
builds across the Plains. The next chance for precipitation will be
Wednesday afternoon and evening as the next upper level trough moves
east across the Rockies and into the Plains. Looks like an active
dryline scenario with convection firing across western sections by
late afternoon, then spreading east across the area during the
evening hours. Kept POP`s at 20 percent for now but these may need
to be increased later as confidence increases.

Quasi zonal flow aloft develops Thursday and Friday with dry and
warm conditions prevailing. May see another chance for precipitation
next weekend as another potential upper level trough affects the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  62  83  59  83 /  50  30  20  10   5
San Angelo  79  62  85  59  84 /  30  10  20  10   5
Junction  76  63  83  60  85 /  30  10  30  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 200442
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Scattered light showers with isolated thunderstorms extended from
the Big Country into the Concho Valley, then southwest to Fort
Stockton and Big Bend at 430Z. Most of this activity will continue
into the early afternoon hours as an upper level trough approaches
from the west, affecting mainly KABI and KSJT.

MVFR stratus will temporarily delayed by mid level clouds, however
CIGS should fall into the MVFR category 10-12Z. Have CIGS rising to
VFR in the mid afternoon at KSJT and KABI, but CIGS should stay MVFR
elsewhere through the TAF period.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Line of showers/thunderstorms west of FT Stockton at 23Z should
weaken as it moves off the mountains and with loss of daytime
heating. It is possible a few storms may survive to arrive at KSJT
and KABI after 3Z. With potential low, however, kept thunderstorm
mention out of TAFS.

MVFR stratus likely towards morning as low level moisture continues
to flow up from the Gulf. Scattered morning showers are near KABI as
western upper trough approaches the region. Showers should be more
isolated farther south. Isolated thunderstorms possible late morning
and afternoon across West Central Texas, but KABI will have the best
chance and added VCTS in its TAF.

04


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

The main concern for tonight is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms sometime after 10 PM CDT across the western half of
the CWA...and then the chance for severe storms tomorrow in the same
area but including much of the Big Country.  Latest radar loop,
shows a small area of shower development across Crockett County that
was moving northeast but weakening with time.

A deep upper level trough of low pressure over Mexico was
approaching West Central Texas this afternoon as low level gulf
moisture continues to deepen across the region.  Water vapor loop
was also showing a speed max over Mexico approaching the Big Bend.
As upper level divergence increases in advance of this feature, the
HRRR and the Texas Tech 4KM WRF showed the development of a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms across West Texas tonight that will
move east and northeast into West Central Texas shortly after 03Z or
10 PM CDT.  However, these high resolution short term models show
the MCS weakening as they move into a more stable airmass across
West Central Texas tonight.  However, can`t rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm developing tonight.  Have raised PoPs across
the western half of the area to 50 percent.

Models do show the airmass across West Central Texas becoming
increasingly unstable east of the dry line by tomorrow afternoon as
most unstable CAPE Values range from 1000 to 1600 J/KG with 0 to 6KM
bulk shear values ranging from 35 to 50 knots across the region.
For this reason...the Storm Prediction Center has placed the western
half of the CWA in a slight risk for severe storms.  The main
impacts will be large hail and damaging winds.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Sunday evening, convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
West Central Texas, especially the Big Country. A dryline will be
located across West Texas, with a moderately unstable environment
across much of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop across the western portions of the area during
the afternoon, with some convection lingering into the evening
hours. The best chance during the evening will be across the Big
Country. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. On Monday
morning, a weak cold front will move into the Big Country, then make
slow progress toward the Interstate 10 corridor by evening. Ahead of
this feature, compressional heating will lead to unseasonably warm
temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Isolated
to scattered showers will be possible during the afternoon, as the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. I expect the best chance
to be generally southeast of an Abilene, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. A few of these storms could become strong to severe,
especially across the southeast counties.

Upper level ridging on Tuesday will result in a continuation of the
above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper
80s. The next upper level trough will come ashore the Northwest
Pacific Tuesday, then approach the Plains late Wednesday. As this
feature approaches, it will aid in the development of dryline
showers and thunderstorms, first across our western counties late
Wednesday afternoon, then advancing east into the rest of the area
during the evening hours. Given the uncertainty this far out, I have
continued with only slight chance PoPs, but these may need to be
bumped up on future shifts. The above normal temperatures will
continue through the end of the work week, with highs generally in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Models
are indicating the approach of another upper level trough next
weekend, which could bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  78  62  84  59 /  40  40  30  10  10
San Angelo  59  79  62  88  59 /  50  40  20  20  10
Junction  60  77  63  85  60 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/Daniels










000
FXUS64 KSJT 192332
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Line of showers/thunderstorms west of FT Stockton at 23Z should
weaken as it moves off the mountains and with loss of daytime
heating. It is possible a few storms may survive to arrive at KSJT
and KABI after 3Z. With potential low, however, kept thunderstorm
mention out of TAFS.

MVFR stratus likely towards morning as low level moisture continues
to flow up from the Gulf. Scattered morning showers are near KABI as
western upper trough approaches the region. Showers should be more
isolated farther south. Isolated thunderstorms possible late morning
and afternoon across West Central Texas, but KABI will have the best
chance and added VCTS in its TAF.

04


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

The main concern for tonight is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms sometime after 10 PM CDT across the western half of
the CWA...and then the chance for severe storms tomorrow in the same
area but including much of the Big Country.  Latest radar loop,
shows a small area of shower development across Crockett County that
was moving northeast but weakening with time.

A deep upper level trough of low pressure over Mexico was
approaching West Central Texas this afternoon as low level gulf
moisture continues to deepen across the region.  Water vapor loop
was also showing a speed max over Mexico approaching the Big Bend.
As upper level divergence increases in advance of this feature, the
HRRR and the Texas Tech 4KM WRF showed the development of a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms across West Texas tonight that will
move east and northeast into West Central Texas shortly after 03Z or
10 PM CDT.  However, these high resolution short term models show
the MCS weakening as they move into a more stable airmass across
West Central Texas tonight.  However, can`t rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm developing tonight.  Have raised PoPs across
the western half of the area to 50 percent.

Models do show the airmass across West Central Texas becoming
increasingly unstable east of the dry line by tomorrow afternoon as
most unstable CAPE Values range from 1000 to 1600 J/KG with 0 to 6KM
bulk shear values ranging from 35 to 50 knots across the region.
For this reason...the Storm Prediction Center has placed the western
half of the CWA in a slight risk for severe storms.  The main
impacts will be large hail and damaging winds.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Sunday evening, convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
West Central Texas, especially the Big Country. A dryline will be
located across West Texas, with a moderately unstable environment
across much of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop across the western portions of the area during
the afternoon, with some convection lingering into the evening
hours. The best chance during the evening will be across the Big
Country. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. On Monday
morning, a weak cold front will move into the Big Country, then make
slow progress toward the Interstate 10 corridor by evening. Ahead of
this feature, compressional heating will lead to unseasonably warm
temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Isolated
to scattered showers will be possible during the afternoon, as the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. I expect the best chance
to be generally southeast of an Abilene, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. A few of these storms could become strong to severe,
especially across the southeast counties.

Upper level ridging on Tuesday will result in a continuation of the
above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper
80s. The next upper level trough will come ashore the Northwest
Pacific Tuesday, then approach the Plains late Wednesday. As this
feature approaches, it will aid in the development of dryline
showers and thunderstorms, first across our western counties late
Wednesday afternoon, then advancing east into the rest of the area
during the evening hours. Given the uncertainty this far out, I have
continued with only slight chance PoPs, but these may need to be
bumped up on future shifts. The above normal temperatures will
continue through the end of the work week, with highs generally in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Models
are indicating the approach of another upper level trough next
weekend, which could bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  78  62  84  59 /  40  40  30  10  10
San Angelo  59  79  62  88  59 /  50  40  20  20  10
Junction  60  77  63  85  60 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/Daniels








000
FXUS64 KSJT 191950
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

The main concern for tonight is the chance for showers and
thunderstorms sometime after 10 PM CDT across the western half of
the CWA...and then the chance for severe storms tomorrow in the same
area but including much of the Big Country.  Latest radar loop,
shows a small area of shower development across Crockett County that
was moving northeast but weakening with time.

A deep upper level trough of low pressure over Mexico was
approaching West Central Texas this afternoon as low level gulf
moisture continues to deepen across the region.  Water vapor loop
was also showing a speed max over Mexico approaching the Big Bend.
As upper level divergence increases in advance of this feature, the
HRRR and the Texas Tech 4KM WRF showed the development of a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms across West Texas tonight that will
move east and northeast into West Central Texas shortly after 03Z or
10 PM CDT.  However, these high resolution short term models show
the MCS weakening as they move into a more stable airmass across
West Central Texas tonight.  However, can`t rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm developing tonight.  Have raised PoPs across
the western half of the area to 50 percent.

Models do show the airmass across West Central Texas becoming
increasingly unstable east of the dry line by tomorrow afternoon as
most unstable CAPE Values range from 1000 to 1600 J/KG with 0 to 6KM
bulk shear values ranging from 35 to 50 knots across the region.
For this reason...the Storm Prediction Center has placed the western
half of the CWA in a slight risk for severe storms.  The main
impacts will be large hail and damaging winds.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Sunday evening, convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
West Central Texas, especially the Big Country. A dryline will be
located across West Texas, with a moderately unstable environment
across much of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop across the western portions of the area during
the afternoon, with some convection lingering into the evening
hours. The best chance during the evening will be across the Big
Country. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. On Monday
morning, a weak cold front will move into the Big Country, then make
slow progress toward the Interstate 10 corridor by evening. Ahead of
this feature, compressional heating will lead to unseasonably warm
temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Isolated
to scattered showers will be possible during the afternoon, as the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. I expect the best chance
to be generally southeast of an Abilene, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. A few of these storms could become strong to severe,
especially across the southeast counties.

Upper level ridging on Tuesday will result in a continuation of the
above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper
80s. The next upper level trough will come ashore the Northwest
Pacific Tuesday, then approach the Plains late Wednesday. As this
feature approaches, it will aid in the development of dryline
showers and thunderstorms, first across our western counties late
Wednesday afternoon, then advancing east into the rest of the area
during the evening hours. Given the uncertainty this far out, I have
continued with only slight chance PoPs, but these may need to be
bumped up on future shifts. The above normal temperatures will
continue through the end of the work week, with highs generally in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Models
are indicating the approach of another upper level trough next
weekend, which could bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  78  62  84  59 /  40  40  30  10  10
San Angelo  59  79  62  88  59 /  50  40  20  20  10
Junction  60  77  63  85  60 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 191750
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

There is a chance for showers or thunderstorms moving into West
Central Texas after 03z.  With so much uncertainty on timing, have
left out mention for now.  May also see MVFR develop by 12Z at most
TAF sites.  An upper level disturbance will likely move northeast
across the area tonight and will interact with increasing low level
moisture to produce this convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
To update winds for today.

DISCUSSION...
The surface trough across far West Texas has resulted in stronger
surface winds late this morning across West Central Texas.  For this
reason, increased the surface winds across the CWA through the rest
of the day to south at 15 to 25 mph.  Only minor changes were made
to temperatures and cloud cover as a lead shortwave moves into the
area today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  78  62  83  58 /  30  40  20  10  10
San Angelo  59  79  62  85  58 /  30  40  20  10  10
Junction  60  77  63  83  58 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26















000
FXUS64 KSJT 191533
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1032 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
To update winds for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The surface trough across far West Texas has resulted in stronger
surface winds late this morning across West Central Texas.  For this
reason, increased the surface winds across the CWA through the rest
of the day to south at 15 to 25 mph.  Only minor changes were made
to temperatures and cloud cover as a lead shortwave moves into the
area today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A few low clouds showing up this morning across far southern
counties near SOA...but not enough to warrant mention of MVFR
ceilings in area TAFs this morning. Will see some mid level clouds
move in ahead of an upper shortwave later this afternoon/evening.
Also expecting a few thunderstorms mainly after 0Z ahead of the
upper trough...but location and coverage is too uncertain to include
mention in TAFs at this time.  Better chance of storms will be just
beyond this TAF valid period into Sunday.  Winds mainly
southeast...below 20 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26













000
FXUS64 KSJT 191147
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A few low clouds showing up this morning across far southern
counties near SOA...but not enough to warrant mention of MVFR
ceilings in area TAFs this morning. Will see some mid level clouds
move in ahead of an upper shortwave later this afternoon/evening.
Also expecting a few thunderstorms mainly after 0Z ahead of the
upper trough...but location and coverage is too uncertain to include
mention in TAFs at this time.  Better chance of storms will be just
beyond this TAF valid period into Sunday.  Winds mainly
southeast...below 20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 190954
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 190449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Models this cycle continue to develop MVFR ceilings across most of
West Central Texas later tonight. My only concern is the higher
clouds may delay this development. However, my confidence isn`t high
enough to deviate from timing we had in the previous terminals.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR conditions to develop after 10z at all TAF sites
except KABI. Model guidance does hint at the possibility of MVFR
conditions making progress into the KABI terminal. However,
confidence in this occurring was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at time time. Look for VFR conditions to return to all
terminals after 17z.

Doll

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  58  77  59  80 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  78  58  79  58  82 /  30   5  10  30  30
Junction  79  60  78  58  80 /  20   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber






000
FXUS64 KSJT 182320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR conditions to develop after 10z at all TAF sites
except KABI. Model guidance does hint at the possibility of MVFR
conditions making progress into the KABI terminal. However,
confidence in this occurring was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at time time. Look for VFR conditions to return to all
terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  58  77  59  80 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  78  58  79  58  82 /  30   5  10  30  30
Junction  79  60  78  58  80 /  20   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 182013
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  77  59  80  62 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  58  79  58  82  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
Junction  60  78  58  80  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Lyons/Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 181739 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVRF/IFR ceilings across the forecast area are expected to
become mostly MVRF flying conditions with periods of broken or
overcast low clouds above IFR ceiling this afternoon. A more
consistent. A low cloud ceiling and IFR or near IFR conditions are
expected to return to the forecast area by early morning
near Sonora, Junction, San Angelo and Brady airports.

Winds from the and northeast will remain mostly 10 knots or less
today weakening to 5 to 8 knots overnight with brief periods of
light and variable winds late night near Junction and Sonora. Wind
directions will shift slowly and blow from the southeast tonight
then increase to 12 to 18 knots from the south on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  77  59  78  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  56  79  59  80  61 /   5  20  40  30  20
Junction  56  78  59  79  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99









000
FXUS64 KSJT 181656
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1156 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014



.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVRF/IFR ceilings across the forecast area are expected to
become mostly MVRF flying conditions with periods of broken or
overcast low clouds above IFR ceiling this afternoon. A more
consistent. A low cloud ceiling and IFR or near IFR conditions are
expected to return to the forecast area by early morning
near Sonora, Junction, San Angelo and Brady airports.

Winds from the and northeast will remain mostly 10 knots or less
today weakening to 5 to 8 knots overnight with brief periods of
light and variable winds late night near Junction and Sonora. Wind
directions will shift slowly and blow from the southeast tonight
then increase to 12 to 18 knots from the south on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  77  59  78  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  56  79  59  80  61 /   5  20  40  30  20
Junction  56  78  59  79  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 181134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  55  77  59  78 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  76  56  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  40  30
Junction  77  56  78  59  79 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08







000
FXUS64 KSJT 180953
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  55  77  59  78 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  76  56  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  40  30
Junction  77  56  78  59  79 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 180406
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

KSJT and KSOA will quickly degrade from VFR to MVFR and IFR over the
next several hours with MVFR and IFR conditions and occasional IFR
continuing at all terminals through the remainder of the night.
Ceilings will not lift to VFR until mid-day. Winds will remain light
through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR conditions will develop after 03z at all TAF sites. A weak cold
front and associated wind shift will pass KSJT around 03z, and KBBD
around 06z. VFR conditions will return to all terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be across the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  52  74  57  77 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  54  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  30
Junction  72  56  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll










000
FXUS64 KSJT 172330
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR conditions will develop after 03z at all TAF sites. A weak cold
front and associated wind shift will pass KSJT around 03z, and KBBD
around 06z. VFR conditions will return to all terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be across the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  52  74  57  77 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  54  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  30
Junction  72  56  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 172004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afernoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be acoss the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  74  57  77  60 /  20  10  10  20  50
San Angelo  54  78  58  78  60 /  20  10  10  30  40
Junction  56  78  58  78  60 /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 171702
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings are occurring at all TAF sites this morning. I expect
ceilings to gradually become VFR at all sites by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will once again drop into the MVFR category at all sites
late this evening, with the possibility of IFR ceilings mainly
after midnight. Isolated light showers or drizzle will be possible
this afternoon and overnight, but coverage should remain limited,
so I have left out any mention in the TAF package. A weak front
will gradually move through the region this afternoon/evening,
resulting north winds of 5 to 10 knots.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

First of all, there may well be a few showers this afternoon or
evening across much of West Central Texas, but given that the
coverage is expected to be limited and given the uncertainty in
timing, will not mention at this time. Otherwise, satellite is
finally showing the low clouds spreading across the are, with models
suggesting quite a bit of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings today. As a
weak cold front moves into the area, winds will become more easterly
and with more low level moisture moving into the area, all terminals
are expected to see MVFR cigs through the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front making progress into the Panhandle early this morning,
although temperatures are not really much colder behind it. This
front will sag into the Big Country near the Interstate 20 corridor
by sunset, and then sag farther south during the overnight hours.
Moisture will be abundant, so as the front moves into the area, a
few showers will be possible. Previous forecast was already carrying
slight chance of showers across the area north and east of Abilene
for this afternoon and over much of the area tonight. This looks
like a good forecast for now and will continue.

Lots of clouds in place, both high clouds and low clouds underneath.
Still, temperatures starting in the mid and upper 50s this morning,
so even a little sun will allow readings to reach into the 70s
today. Mild again tonight with lows only dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM...
Upper trough will approach the region Saturday. GFS has slowed the
progression of the upper trough and is now similar to the EC model.
I lowered pops for Saturday daytime, but kept the previous rain
chances in for Saturday night. Rainfall amounts in the models have
unfortunately decreased, even for Saturday night.

On on the positive side for rain chances, both the GFS and EC are
indicating a better chance of rain for Sunday/Sunday night,
especially across the Big Country as a secondary upper trough moves
across. The farther north, the better the dynamics and thunderstorm
chances. Atmospheric instability is also greater across the region
Sunday with GFS SB CAPES increasing up to 1800 J/KG, which will
increase the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will bring in drier air aloft next Monday. Left out
chances storms on Monday, although with northwest flow aloft, one
can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. A CAP will be developing
Tuesday which will significantly limit thunderstorm chances through
the rest of the week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  75  56  76  60 /  20  10  10  20  50
San Angelo  56  76  57  78  61 /  20  10  10  20  40
Junction  56  77  57  76  61 /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DANIELS








000
FXUS64 KSJT 171129
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

First of all, there may well be a few showers this afternoon or
evening across much of West Central Texas, but given that the
coverage is expected to be limited and given the uncertainty in
timing, will not mention at this time. Otherwise, satellite is
finally showing the low clouds spreading across the are, with models
suggesting quite a bit of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings today. As a
weak cold front moves into the area, winds will become more easterly
and with more low level moisture moving into the area, all terminals
are expected to see MVFR cigs through the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front making progress into the Panhandle early this morning,
although temperatures are not really much colder behind it. This
front will sag into the Big Country near the Interstate 20 corridor
by sunset, and then sag farther south during the overnight hours.
Moisture will be abundant, so as the front moves into the area, a
few showers will be possible. Previous forecast was already carrying
slight chance of showers across the area north and east of Abilene
for this afternoon and over much of the area tonight. This looks
like a good forecast for now and will continue.

Lots of clouds in place, both high clouds and low clouds underneath.
Still, temperatures starting in the mid and upper 50s this morning,
so even a little sun will allow readings to reach into the 70s
today. Mild again tonight with lows only dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM...
Upper trough will approach the region Saturday. GFS has slowed the
progression of the upper trough and is now similar to the EC model.
I lowered pops for Saturday daytime, but kept the previous rain
chances in for Saturday night. Rainfall amounts in the models have
unfortunately decreased, even for Saturday night.

On on the positive side for rain chances, both the GFS and EC are
indicating a better chance of rain for Sunday/Sunday night,
especially across the Big Country as a secondary upper trough moves
across. The farther north, the better the dynamics and thunderstorm
chances. Atmospheric instability is also greater across the region
Sunday with GFS SB CAPES increasing up to 1800 J/KG, which will
increase the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will bring in drier air aloft next Monday. Left out
chances storms on Monday, although with northwest flow aloft, one
can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. A CAP will be developing
Tuesday which will significantly limit thunderstorm chances through
the rest of the week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  55  75  56  76 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  56  76  57  78 /  10  20  10  10  20
Junction  72  56  77  57  76 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







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