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000
FXUS64 KSJT 030421
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over the northern terminals through the
next 24 hours. Stratus is expected to once again develop over the
southern terminals beginning around 10Z at KSOA and KJCT and around
12Z at KBBD resulting in MVFR ceilings through around 17Z. There is
a slight chance of convective activity in the vicinity of the
southern terminals in the afternoon and early evening hours. Have
not mentioned in the TAFs due to inherent uncertainty in coverage.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson








000
FXUS64 KSJT 030421
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over the northern terminals through the
next 24 hours. Stratus is expected to once again develop over the
southern terminals beginning around 10Z at KSOA and KJCT and around
12Z at KBBD resulting in MVFR ceilings through around 17Z. There is
a slight chance of convective activity in the vicinity of the
southern terminals in the afternoon and early evening hours. Have
not mentioned in the TAFs due to inherent uncertainty in coverage.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson







000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 021718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through the next 12 hours with
gusty south southwest winds during the afternoon and early
evening. the return of MVFR CIGS will be likely early tomorrow
morning at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA terminals. Low CIGS will burn off
as we approach noon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18









000
FXUS64 KSJT 021718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through the next 12 hours with
gusty south southwest winds during the afternoon and early
evening. the return of MVFR CIGS will be likely early tomorrow
morning at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA terminals. Low CIGS will burn off
as we approach noon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18








000
FXUS64 KSJT 021128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 012101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 011734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Early
morning low clouds have been making better progress northward each
day over the past few days, and KSOA actually had an hour or so of
MVFR CIGS this morning. With that in mind, and continued moist
southeasterly low level flow, have added TEMPO groups to KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT tomorrow morning for a couple hours around 12Z.
Otherwise, we will see a few gusts around 20 knots this afternoon
across the area, before winds diminish this evening. Although KABI
may see an intermittent gust overnight, did not think that these
gusts would be predominant, so we have left them out for now. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus has become scattered over the southern terminals this
morning with VFR ceilings expected at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Southerly winds will be gusting 15 to 25 knots at all
terminals through most of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Early
morning low clouds have been making better progress northward each
day over the past few days, and KSOA actually had an hour or so of
MVFR CIGS this morning. With that in mind, and continued moist
southeasterly low level flow, have added TEMPO groups to KBBD,
KSOA, and KJCT tomorrow morning for a couple hours around 12Z.
Otherwise, we will see a few gusts around 20 knots this afternoon
across the area, before winds diminish this evening. Although KABI
may see an intermittent gust overnight, did not think that these
gusts would be predominant, so we have left them out for now. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus has become scattered over the southern terminals this
morning with VFR ceilings expected at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Southerly winds will be gusting 15 to 25 knots at all
terminals through most of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 011114
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus has become scattered over the southern terminals this
morning with VFR ceilings expected at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Southerly winds will be gusting 15 to 25 knots at all
terminals through most of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07











000
FXUS64 KSJT 010848
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 010848
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 010449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Starting to see some stratus develop across the Hill Country of
Texas late this evening. Some of this stratus will likely spread
north across the southern terminals after 09Z and will include
MVFR ceilings at KJCT, with TEMPO MVFR at KSOA this forecast
cycle. Stratus will scatter out by mid morning with VFR for the
rest of the forecast period. South winds will become gusty on
Monday with winds diminishing by early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora,
Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise
Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this
morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow
at San Angelo and Abilene.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KSJT 010449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Starting to see some stratus develop across the Hill Country of
Texas late this evening. Some of this stratus will likely spread
north across the southern terminals after 09Z and will include
MVFR ceilings at KJCT, with TEMPO MVFR at KSOA this forecast
cycle. Stratus will scatter out by mid morning with VFR for the
rest of the forecast period. South winds will become gusty on
Monday with winds diminishing by early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora,
Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise
Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this
morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow
at San Angelo and Abilene.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312355
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora,
Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise
Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this
morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow
at San Angelo and Abilene.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer





000
FXUS64 KSJT 312355
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora,
Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise
Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this
morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow
at San Angelo and Abilene.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer






000
FXUS64 KSJT 312053 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 312053 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 312035
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential front by next
weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311801 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast items are with increasing south winds
across the area, and with possibility of patchy low cloud
development in some of our southern and southeastern counties
early Monday morning. Clear skies should give way to partly cloudy
conditions this afternoon, as a scattered cumulus field develops.
For tonight, expect clear skies through much of the night. The 12Z
NAM suggests low cloud development across our southern and
southeastern counties, and was on target with what occurred early
this morning. At this time, will introduce a scattered MVFR layer at
KSOA, KJCT and KBBD, between 12Z and 15Z Monday. South winds are on
the increase across our area, and carrying gusts this afternoon at
KABI and KSJT. South winds tonight will range from 5-10 kts at our
southern TAF sites, to 10-15 kts at KABI. South winds will increase
again by mid-to-late Monday morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts
expected at KABI.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  96  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 311801 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast items are with increasing south winds
across the area, and with possibility of patchy low cloud
development in some of our southern and southeastern counties
early Monday morning. Clear skies should give way to partly cloudy
conditions this afternoon, as a scattered cumulus field develops.
For tonight, expect clear skies through much of the night. The 12Z
NAM suggests low cloud development across our southern and
southeastern counties, and was on target with what occurred early
this morning. At this time, will introduce a scattered MVFR layer at
KSOA, KJCT and KBBD, between 12Z and 15Z Monday. South winds are on
the increase across our area, and carrying gusts this afternoon at
KABI and KSJT. South winds tonight will range from 5-10 kts at our
southern TAF sites, to 10-15 kts at KABI. South winds will increase
again by mid-to-late Monday morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts
expected at KABI.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  96  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast items are with increasing south winds
across the area, and with possibility of patchy low cloud
development in some of our southern and southeastern counties
early Monday morning. Clear skies should give way to partly cloudy
conditions this afternoon, as a scattered cumulus field develops.
For tonight, expect clear skies through much of the night. The 12Z
NAM suggests low cloud development across our southern and
southeastern counties, and was on target with what occurred early
this morning. At this, time will introduce a scattered MVFR layer at
KSOA, KJCT and KBBD, between 12Z and 15Z Monday. South winds are
on the increase across our area, and carrying gusts this afternoon
at KABI and KSJT. South winds will range from 5-10 kts at our
southern TAF sites, to 10-15 kts at KABI. South winds will increase
again by mid-to-late Monday morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts
expected at KABI.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  96  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast items are with increasing south winds
across the area, and with possibility of patchy low cloud
development in some of our southern and southeastern counties
early Monday morning. Clear skies should give way to partly cloudy
conditions this afternoon, as a scattered cumulus field develops.
For tonight, expect clear skies through much of the night. The 12Z
NAM suggests low cloud development across our southern and
southeastern counties, and was on target with what occurred early
this morning. At this, time will introduce a scattered MVFR layer at
KSOA, KJCT and KBBD, between 12Z and 15Z Monday. South winds are
on the increase across our area, and carrying gusts this afternoon
at KABI and KSJT. South winds will range from 5-10 kts at our
southern TAF sites, to 10-15 kts at KABI. South winds will increase
again by mid-to-late Monday morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts
expected at KABI.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  96  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 311106
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  95  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07










000
FXUS64 KSJT 311106
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southerly gusting to around 15 knots by noon.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  95  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07











000
FXUS64 KSJT 310835
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  95  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 310835
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to build over the forecast area from
the west through tonight. As a result, weather conditions over our
area will be hot and dry. Afternoon highs today will range from the
lower to mid 90s over the southern counties of West Central Texas to
the mid to upper 90s over the remainder of the area. Morning lows
tomorrow will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

A fairly quiet start of September weather pattern for West Central
Texas, with hot and dry conditions to persist. Upper level ridge
to be the dominant pattern across the Southern Plains through the
week and into next weekend. A tropical disturbance in the
northwest Caribbean will slide across the Yucatan and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico before crossing into South Texas for mid
week. There is some chance that a few showers, or perhaps just a
greatly strengthened sea breeze, may push a few showers as far
north as Junction or Mason for Wednesday afternoon, but the odds
look pretty small. Given the possibility that the upper level high
may just as easily strengthen and keep it even farther south, will
opt to not included PoP`s at this time.

Now, if the disturbance can actually strengthen into something
more organized, the forecast may have to be tweaked to account for
it. Models rarely handle the transition from a disturbance to
something more organized well, and although the upper ridge would
still likely keep any convection south, rain chances may increase
enough to warant a mention.

Otherwise, dry with afternoon highs well into the 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s for the week, or pretty close to or
slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  73  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  94  72  95  75  94 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07









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