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000
FXUS64 KSJT 250407
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1107 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will begin to degrade to MVFR a few hours after
midnight at all terminals as stratus moves north into West Central
Texas. An upper level disturbance will move through the area
around sunrise and exit the area by early afternoon with skies
clearing. -TSRA is likely at all terminals from sunrise through
early afternoon with precipitation ending from west to east
across the area in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  64  80  62  88 /  40  20  50  10  20
San Angelo  86  64  85  63  91 /  30  20  50  10  10
Junction  86  66  83  65  89 /  30  20  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 250407
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1107 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will begin to degrade to MVFR a few hours after
midnight at all terminals as stratus moves north into West Central
Texas. An upper level disturbance will move through the area
around sunrise and exit the area by early afternoon with skies
clearing. -TSRA is likely at all terminals from sunrise through
early afternoon with precipitation ending from west to east
across the area in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  64  80  62  88 /  40  20  50  10  20
San Angelo  86  64  85  63  91 /  30  20  50  10  10
Junction  86  66  83  65  89 /  30  20  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 242326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 242326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 242326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 242326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions through this evening. Stratus will
return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 08Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. A strong
upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
much of the area after 12Z and continuing through the morning
hours and early afternoon. Have added PROB30 and TEMPO -TSRA to
the terminals. Expect clearing skies from west to east through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 242050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 242050
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

The WV imagery this afternoon was showing some mid and upper level
drying over our area. The next strong upper level shortwave was
located upstream over southern Arizona. At the surface, a dryline
was located from Snyder to just east of Ozona. There was cu/tcu
developing near the dryline as the spc mesoanaylsis was indicating
some instability(MLCAPES 2000 J/KG) and effective bulk shear of 30
to 40 knots. Isolated strong to a few severe storms will be possible
across much of West Central Texas late this afternoon through 03Z
this evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with lows in the
60s.

For Monday, potentially a somewhat busy day across the area as
potent current southwest US upper level disturbance moves into the
southern Plains. This system looks progressive and will mainly
affect our area between 12Z and 21Z. However, strong mid to upper
level ascent will combine with increasing low level southerly flow
to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be
severe due to moderate deep layer 0-6km shear...weak instability and
abundant low level moisture. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Due to the fast movement of the system, rainfall
amounts should be kept down. The highest amounts will across far
southeast areas, with local amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. The
rain should taper off by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The Monday night through Wednesday time frame looks pretty quiet.
There may be isolated mainly afternoon and evening storms as a
dryline remains in the area. However, the upper level forcing looks
weak. Another active period for the middle to late part of the weak
as more upper level short waves will progress across the Southern
Plains and combine with abundant moisture, which results in chance
Pops at least through Saturday. Also, an isolated severe storm or
two is not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall.
The temperatures will be very warm with highs mainly in the mid 80s
to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  80  62  88  67 /  20  50  10  20  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  91  69 /  20  50  10  10  10
Junction  66  83  65  89  69 /  20  80  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240923
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04/26







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240923
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04/26








000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231715
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the
area this afternoon, with several episodes of heavy convection possible
into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at various times
through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording overnight.
Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through the period
but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible in heaviest
showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

.Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  84  63 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  86  65  86  63 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  84  68  81  65 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231715
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the
area this afternoon, with several episodes of heavy convection possible
into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at various times
through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording overnight.
Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through the period
but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible in heaviest
showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

.Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  84  63 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  86  65  86  63 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  84  68  81  65 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

..Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  64  83  65  82 /  80  80  50  10  40
San Angelo  79  65  85  65  87 /  80  80  30  10  40
Junction  80  66  83  67  84 /  70  80  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

..Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  64  83  65  82 /  80  80  50  10  40
San Angelo  79  65  85  65  87 /  80  80  30  10  40
Junction  80  66  83  67  84 /  70  80  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 231159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Currently seeing mostly VFR conditions across the terminals
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous
across the area later today, with several episodes of heavy
convection possible into the overnight hours. Carrying SHRA/TS at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

..Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  64  83  65  82 /  80  80  50  10  40
San Angelo  79  65  85  65  87 /  80  80  30  10  40
Junction  80  66  83  67  84 /  70  80  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

...Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.


.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  82  64 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  85  65  87  64 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  83  67  84  66 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 230920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

...Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.


.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  82  64 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  85  65  87  64 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  83  67  84  66 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

...Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.


.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  82  64 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  85  65  87  64 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  83  67  84  66 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

...Heavy rainfall and some severe storms expected through
tonight...

A strong shortwave trough will move east across the southern Rockies
through tonight and will aid in the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, as large scale ascent
overspreads the region. A warm front has lifted north across the
area during the night, with dewpoints now back in the upper 60s and
lowers 70s across West Central Texas early this morning. The airmass
across the region will become moderately unstable by this afternoon,
with West Central Texas within the favorable right entrance region
of a south-north oriented strong upper level jet by this evening.
The combination of increasing shear and lift, along with a very
moist airmass (Precipitable Water values in excess of 1.5 inch),
will contribute to numerous showers and storms well into the
overnight hours, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding an increasing concern.

Severe storms are also expected to develop later this afternoon
and evening just about anywhere across the CWA, with large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. However, abundant
cloud cover and limited surface heating may reduce the extent and
coverage of severe storms, with heavy rainfall becoming more of the
concern through the overnight hours. The ground remains saturated
from recent heavy rainfall and any additional heavy rainfall will
lead to runoff issues. For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect for the entire area from late this morning through Sunday
morning.


.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Lift and mid level moisture from the upper shortwave trough will be
moving east by mid morning Sunday, ending the heavy rainfall
threat. However, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible, even into
the afternoon, as a dryline develops from Sweetwater to San
Angelo to Sonora. However, the severe threat is conditional on how
worked over the atmosphere is during the morning.

For Memorial Day and evening, southerly winds bring back more
instability with GFS SB CAPES of 2000-3000 J/kg. A dryline will
also be developing again, east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Sonora line. This, along with a upper shortwave Monday, will
bring a slight risk of severe storms to much of West Central
Texas.

Drier air Tuesday will keep showers and thunderstorm chances
small, however low and mid level moisture returns Wednesday, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  82  64 /  80  50  10  40  40
San Angelo  65  85  65  87  64 /  80  30  10  40  40
Junction  66  83  67  84  66 /  80  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday
morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 230507
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR to IFR CIGS are starting to fill in across southern and
eastern areas. The onset of the lower VIS and CIG may be delayed
somewhat by high clouds from convection to the west. With rain
still expected tomorrow afternoon and evening, no significant
changes were made beyond the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

.Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 230507
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR to IFR CIGS are starting to fill in across southern and
eastern areas. The onset of the lower VIS and CIG may be delayed
somewhat by high clouds from convection to the west. With rain
still expected tomorrow afternoon and evening, no significant
changes were made beyond the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

.Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230507
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR to IFR CIGS are starting to fill in across southern and
eastern areas. The onset of the lower VIS and CIG may be delayed
somewhat by high clouds from convection to the west. With rain
still expected tomorrow afternoon and evening, no significant
changes were made beyond the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

.Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 222347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 222347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 222347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 222347
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No significant changes to the previous set of TAFs. Expecting the
SCT clouds at MVFR heights to fill in and become OVC within a
couple hours across the area after 00Z/7PM this evening, and then
lower to IFR as they did last night with similar conditions in
place. Tomorrow, we are still expecting showers with possibly some
embedded isolated thunderstorms to move into the area during the
morning hours, mainly after 12Z/7AM. There is a better chance for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as temperatures warm, so
have introduced VCTS after 20Z at most sites tomorrow, with
possibly some slight improvement in CIG heights during the
afternoon. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the time period,
hovering around 12 knots, with intermittent gusts near 20 knots at
times. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

..Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily build with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 222047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily buid with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 222047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Heavy rainfall expected across West Central TX this weekend...

Low clouds beginning to erode this afternoon as a warm front lifts
north across the CWA. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across the southwest quadrant of the CWA, with dewpoints in the mid
60s. The resultant MLCAPE values are nearing 1000 J/kg in the
vicinity of the Pecos River. A few storms are likely to develop over
the Trans-Pecos area and Permian Basin this afternoon and could
drift into the western portion of the CWA. However, weaker
instability in our neck of the woods will limit convection intensity
and and its eastward extent. Low clouds will redevelop tonight as
southerly flow increases over the boundary layer. Isentropic ascent
at 300K may also result in some patchy drizzle. That said, the
coverage of measurable rainfall will be limited during the
overnight hours.

By Saturday morning, synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be
increasing over west TX as a strong shortwave trough moves across
the southern Rockies. West Central TX will be favorably located in
the right entrance region of the a N-S oriented jet streak over the
High Plains, enhancing mesoscale ascent over the southern Plains.
Precipitable water values are forecast to approach 1.60",
essentially in the 99th percentile of climatology. This moist,
uncapped airmass will support the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday. The abundance of
cloud cover may limit instability sufficiently to ward off a
significant severe weather threat; however, a few strong to severe
storms are certainly possible across the CWA, as highlighted in the
Day 2 outlook from the SPC. The primary concern will be flash
flooding as widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon, with locally
higher amounts.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

The active weather pattern will continue through Memorial Day,
with main focus on heavy rainfall Saturday night and early Sunday,
and the potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday
night.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall Saturday night will shift into our eastern counties
overnight. By Sunday morning, have the highest PoPs across our
eastern counties. Drier air will overspread the western part of
our area during the day, but with another disturbance rotating
through the base of the trough and into our area Sunday afternoon,
will have a possibility of additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly across the eastern third of our
area.

Any intrusion of drier low-level air on Sunday will be short-lived,
as return flow brings the moisture back by late Sunday night. The
12Z GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave trough moving east across
New Mexico on Memorial Day. This will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night across our area.
With very unstable air (CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/KG) and adequate
vertical shear, severe weather will certainly be possible. Storms
may initially develop along a dryline in West Texas, and then grow
upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System across our area. Heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Have increased the PoPs across
our area Monday and Monday night.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected for much of next week.
Rain chances look low for Tuesday into Wednesday, as heights aloft
temporarily buid with weak shortwave ridging over Texas.

Another upper trough is progged to move east across the
southwestern states on Wednesday and Thursday. Approach of this
system into a very unstable airmass will support an increased
chance for thunderstorms across our area Thursday into Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  76  65  83  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
San Angelo  68  78  66  85  65 /  30  80  80  50  10
Junction  69  78  67  83  67 /  30  70  80  50  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 221719
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low ceilings are slowly improving across the CWA early this
afternoon, and should climb into MVFR category areawide by mid-
afternoon. Patchy drizzle continues across the area, resulting in
visibilities of 2-5 miles in some areas, but this will decrease
this afternoon, as well. Ceilings will quickly lower back to IFR
(or lower) after 02z this evening, potentially falling to around
500 ft with drizzle at times overnight. The prospects for showers
and thunderstorms do not look at all that high this afternoon and
evening, but will increase markedly by midday Saturday. For now,
VCSH was added to several of the TAFs, but thunder and impacts
from heavy rainfall may need to be added over time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The
best chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties
today, in association with best lift from the associated
shortwave. Carrying likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with
chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening,
with earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as
a strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large
hail and damaging winds, along with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. The greatest risk for severe storms will be
generally be north and west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES
of 1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM
shear. Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud
cover, however, may also act to limit instability and severe
potential. The main threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8
inches. A flash flood may be needed Saturday as soils are
saturated by recent heavy rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier
air moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs,
however, will approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday,
and Wednesday night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances
going into the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221719
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low ceilings are slowly improving across the CWA early this
afternoon, and should climb into MVFR category areawide by mid-
afternoon. Patchy drizzle continues across the area, resulting in
visibilities of 2-5 miles in some areas, but this will decrease
this afternoon, as well. Ceilings will quickly lower back to IFR
(or lower) after 02z this evening, potentially falling to around
500 ft with drizzle at times overnight. The prospects for showers
and thunderstorms do not look at all that high this afternoon and
evening, but will increase markedly by midday Saturday. For now,
VCSH was added to several of the TAFs, but thunder and impacts
from heavy rainfall may need to be added over time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The
best chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties
today, in association with best lift from the associated
shortwave. Carrying likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with
chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening,
with earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as
a strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large
hail and damaging winds, along with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. The greatest risk for severe storms will be
generally be north and west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES
of 1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM
shear. Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud
cover, however, may also act to limit instability and severe
potential. The main threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8
inches. A flash flood may be needed Saturday as soils are
saturated by recent heavy rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier
air moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs,
however, will approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday,
and Wednesday night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances
going into the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221719
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low ceilings are slowly improving across the CWA early this
afternoon, and should climb into MVFR category areawide by mid-
afternoon. Patchy drizzle continues across the area, resulting in
visibilities of 2-5 miles in some areas, but this will decrease
this afternoon, as well. Ceilings will quickly lower back to IFR
(or lower) after 02z this evening, potentially falling to around
500 ft with drizzle at times overnight. The prospects for showers
and thunderstorms do not look at all that high this afternoon and
evening, but will increase markedly by midday Saturday. For now,
VCSH was added to several of the TAFs, but thunder and impacts
from heavy rainfall may need to be added over time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The
best chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties
today, in association with best lift from the associated
shortwave. Carrying likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with
chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening,
with earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as
a strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large
hail and damaging winds, along with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. The greatest risk for severe storms will be
generally be north and west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES
of 1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM
shear. Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud
cover, however, may also act to limit instability and severe
potential. The main threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8
inches. A flash flood may be needed Saturday as soils are
saturated by recent heavy rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier
air moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs,
however, will approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday,
and Wednesday night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances
going into the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221719
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low ceilings are slowly improving across the CWA early this
afternoon, and should climb into MVFR category areawide by mid-
afternoon. Patchy drizzle continues across the area, resulting in
visibilities of 2-5 miles in some areas, but this will decrease
this afternoon, as well. Ceilings will quickly lower back to IFR
(or lower) after 02z this evening, potentially falling to around
500 ft with drizzle at times overnight. The prospects for showers
and thunderstorms do not look at all that high this afternoon and
evening, but will increase markedly by midday Saturday. For now,
VCSH was added to several of the TAFs, but thunder and impacts
from heavy rainfall may need to be added over time.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The
best chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties
today, in association with best lift from the associated
shortwave. Carrying likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with
chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening,
with earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as
a strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe
storms possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large
hail and damaging winds, along with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. The greatest risk for severe storms will be
generally be north and west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES
of 1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM
shear. Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud
cover, however, may also act to limit instability and severe
potential. The main threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8
inches. A flash flood may be needed Saturday as soils are
saturated by recent heavy rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier
air moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs,
however, will approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday,
and Wednesday night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances
going into the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus and reduced visibilities will continue across
the terminals through the forecast period. IFR/LIFR conditions
this morning should lift to MVFR briefly this afternoon but will
deteriorate again this evening. The best chance for showers will
be across the KABI terminal this morning. While showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible tonight, confidence concerning
timing and coverage remain too uncertain to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  30  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 220945
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  40  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 220945
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
445 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cloudy and cool day is on tap for the area today as the
shallow cold dome remains in place. Temperatures, however, will be
a little warmer today, with highs mainly in the lower and middle
70s. A shortwave trough is currently lifting northeast across New
Mexico and will track across northwest Texas this morning. The best
chance for rainfall will be across the northern counties today, in
association with best lift from the associated shortwave. Carrying
likely POPs north of Interstate 20, with chance POPs elsewhere.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region tonight and
will begin moving slowly east towards the area into Saturday. A
warm front will lift north across the area later this evening, with
earnest moisture return expected across the area overnight as a
strong low level jet develops. Height falls overspreading West
Texas will result in steepening mid level lapse rates across west
and northwest portions of the area overnight, with a corresponding
increase in instability. Convection is expected to increase to our
west this evening in response to another weak impulse lifting
northeast across the area. The best chance for storms will be across
northwest sections overnight, with a few strong to severe storms
possible. The mains severe threat overnight will be large hail and
damaging winds, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk for severe storms will be generally be north and
west of a Sterling City to Haskell line.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)

An upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will bring in strong mid
level lift beginning early Saturday morning. With GFS SB CAPES of
1500 to 2000 J/KG in the afternoon and 40 to 50 KT 0-6 KM shear.
Some severe storms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Widespread convection and cloud cover, however,
may also act to limit instability and severe potential. The main
threat Saturday may be flooding due to locally heavy rainfall, as
precipitable water increases to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. A flash flood
may be needed Saturday as soils are saturated by recent heavy
rainfall.

A similar setup is in store for Sunday, with stronger heating
potentially bringing enhanced severe potential. 500-700 Lapse
rates increase to 8.0 C/KM in western sections of the Big Country
and Concho Valley by 18Z Sunday, along with CAPES of 2000-2500
J/KG.

Showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated Sunday
night and Monday, as the upper trough moves northeast and drier air
moves into the mid levels. Additional upper troughs, however, will
approach from the West, Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday
night into Thursday. These will keep storm chances going into the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  67  78  65  82 /  50  30  70  70  50
San Angelo  76  68  80  66  84 /  40  30  70  70  30
Junction  76  69  80  67  82 /  40  30  60  70  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04






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