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000
FXUS64 KSJT 292341
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. THUS, NO POPS WERE
INCLUDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON PAR
WITH PERSISTENCE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. BY FAR, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. THAT SAID, IN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS (MAY) DEVELOP, THERE IS A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES.

JOHNSON

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS, WILL REPOSITION ITSELF
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT`S ARRIVAL DIFFERS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT BELIEVE THE ECMWF`S FASTER SOLUTION IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE TRUTH, AS THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE AIDED DAILY BY
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT, THERE`S A SEMBLANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE AXIS (LIKELY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT)BISECTING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR RAINFALL CHANCES IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE. ON SUNDAY, THAT SAME AXIS/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND
TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AND ADDED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES AS
DRIER WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  74 /  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  75 100  72 /   5   0   5   5
JUNCTION 100  75  99  71 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 292341
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. THUS, NO POPS WERE
INCLUDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON PAR
WITH PERSISTENCE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. BY FAR, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. THAT SAID, IN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS (MAY) DEVELOP, THERE IS A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES.

JOHNSON

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS, WILL REPOSITION ITSELF
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT`S ARRIVAL DIFFERS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT BELIEVE THE ECMWF`S FASTER SOLUTION IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE TRUTH, AS THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE AIDED DAILY BY
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT, THERE`S A SEMBLANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE AXIS (LIKELY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT)BISECTING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR RAINFALL CHANCES IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE. ON SUNDAY, THAT SAME AXIS/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND
TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AND ADDED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES AS
DRIER WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  74 /  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  75 100  72 /   5   0   5   5
JUNCTION 100  75  99  71 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 292057
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. THUS, NO POPS WERE
INCLUDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON PAR
WITH PERSISTENCE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. BY FAR, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. THAT SAID, IN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS (MAY) DEVELOP, THERE IS A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES.

JOHNSON

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS, WILL REPOSITION ITSELF
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT`S ARRIVAL DIFFERS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT BELIEVE THE ECMWF`S FASTER SOLUTION IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE TRUTH, AS THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE AIDED DAILY BY
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT, THERE`S A SEMBLANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE AXIS (LIKELY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT)BISECTING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR RAINFALL CHANCES IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE. ON SUNDAY, THAT SAME AXIS/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND
TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AND ADDED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES AS
DRIER WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  74  97 /   5   5   5  20
SAN ANGELO  75 100  72  97 /   0   5   5  20
JUNCTION  75  99  71  96 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JOHNSON/DOLL




000
FXUS64 KSJT 292057
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z. THUS, NO POPS WERE
INCLUDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON PAR
WITH PERSISTENCE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. BY FAR, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. THAT SAID, IN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS (MAY) DEVELOP, THERE IS A MICROBURST POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES.

JOHNSON

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS, WILL REPOSITION ITSELF
TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT`S ARRIVAL DIFFERS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT BELIEVE THE ECMWF`S FASTER SOLUTION IS THE
CLOSEST TO THE TRUTH, AS THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE AIDED DAILY BY
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY/HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WASHES OUT, THERE`S A SEMBLANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE AXIS (LIKELY WHAT`S LEFT OF THE FRONT)BISECTING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR RAINFALL CHANCES IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE. ON SUNDAY, THAT SAME AXIS/BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND
TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW, POPS
WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AND ADDED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE, ENDING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES AS
DRIER WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  74  97 /   5   5   5  20
SAN ANGELO  75 100  72  97 /   0   5   5  20
JUNCTION  75  99  71  96 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JOHNSON/DOLL





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291726
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 7000-1000 FT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED, AT BEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT (AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING) WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291726
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 7000-1000 FT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED, AT BEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT (AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING) WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291726
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 7000-1000 FT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED, AT BEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT (AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING) WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291726
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 7000-1000 FT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED, AT BEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT (AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING) WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291111
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291111
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291111
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290851
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290851
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290851
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

15

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ABLE TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK. SO, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ALSO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  76  98  76 /   0   0   5   5
SAN ANGELO 101  76 100  74 /   0   0   5   5
JUNCTION  98  73  98  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290503
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290503
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290503
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290503
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290448
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290448
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290448
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290448
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

BEAUTIFUL FLIGHT WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 282320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 282320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 282320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281936
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  77 101  76 100 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 281936
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  77 101  76 100 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 281936
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN SW MO LATE TODAY AND SE OK WED
LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN DEEP E-SE FLOW, MOSTLY UNDISTURBED. MID
LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WARM, APPROXIMATELY +1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION
(PER NAEFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SB
CONVECTION, THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST.


LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT MID LEVELS WILL COOL THUR-FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSLATES WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THUR, BUT AT THIS POINT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WRT POPS. THIS REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW ALOFT BY FRI PM ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NRN BIG COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPS, STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS SW
OK FRI WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTH RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS ACROSS THE NRN BIG COUNTRY. ALSO, THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PUSH OUT A BOUNDARY AND WITH A WEAK SHRTWV TROF TO
SE OF THE CWFA HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG SAT, BUT THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS. THEREAFTER THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK
FAVORING AN UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  77  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  77 101  76 100 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 281734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281734
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  75  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/


VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be south to southeasterly 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 281101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/


VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be south to southeasterly 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 281101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/


VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be south to southeasterly 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 281101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/


VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will be south to southeasterly 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 280900
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 280900
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper high pressure will be centered over Oklahoma through tonight
with the forecast area along its southwestern periphery. 850mb
thermal isotherms today will be similar to yesterday with associated
surface highs for the forecast area once again in the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees. Winds will be southerly 10 to 15 mph. Lows
tomorrow morning will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge still on pace to shift to the north slightly for
Wednesday and Thursday and at least bring slightly cooler
temperatures to West Central Texas. Should be able to bring most
of the areas that have been hitting 100 degrees down into the
upper 90s. Ridge recenters to the northwest for Friday and
Saturday, with northwest flow prevailing. This should at least
weaken the cap, with models suggesting some chance of afternoon
convection. Have continued the PoPs already in place. Models
suggest the ridge may remain just off the west for next week,
keeping conditions hot and dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  98  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 102  76 100  75  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction 100  75  98  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 280425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Skies were mostly clear across the region and the winds have
mostly diminished. Could see a few scattered clouds at KJCT and
KSOA by 12Z.  Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today, VFR and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 280425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Skies were mostly clear across the region and the winds have
mostly diminished. Could see a few scattered clouds at KJCT and
KSOA by 12Z.  Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today, VFR and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 280425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Skies were mostly clear across the region and the winds have
mostly diminished. Could see a few scattered clouds at KJCT and
KSOA by 12Z.  Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today, VFR and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 280425
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Skies were mostly clear across the region and the winds have
mostly diminished. Could see a few scattered clouds at KJCT and
KSOA by 12Z.  Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today, VFR and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 272326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 272022
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

04/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272022
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  98  76  98  76 /  10   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  75 102  76 101  75 /  10   5   0   5   0
Junction  74 100  75  98  73 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

04/25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271720
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Patchy areas of MVFR stratus may affect the
I-10 corridor towards daybreak Tuesday. Added a scattered layer
of 1200-1500 ft at KSOA and KJCT, but left out mention of a
ceiling, as ceilings will be brief if they occur. Otherwise
occasional south wind gusts to 18 KTS expected at KABI this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could bring wind gusts to 35
KTS this afternoon, south of I-20, but coverage is too low to
include in terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75 101  72  99  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  73  98  71  97  72 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271720
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Patchy areas of MVFR stratus may affect the
I-10 corridor towards daybreak Tuesday. Added a scattered layer
of 1200-1500 ft at KSOA and KJCT, but left out mention of a
ceiling, as ceilings will be brief if they occur. Otherwise
occasional south wind gusts to 18 KTS expected at KABI this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could bring wind gusts to 35
KTS this afternoon, south of I-20, but coverage is too low to
include in terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75 101  72  99  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  73  98  71  97  72 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 271720
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Patchy areas of MVFR stratus may affect the
I-10 corridor towards daybreak Tuesday. Added a scattered layer
of 1200-1500 ft at KSOA and KJCT, but left out mention of a
ceiling, as ceilings will be brief if they occur. Otherwise
occasional south wind gusts to 18 KTS expected at KABI this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could bring wind gusts to 35
KTS this afternoon, south of I-20, but coverage is too low to
include in terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75 101  72  99  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  73  98  71  97  72 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271720
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Patchy areas of MVFR stratus may affect the
I-10 corridor towards daybreak Tuesday. Added a scattered layer
of 1200-1500 ft at KSOA and KJCT, but left out mention of a
ceiling, as ceilings will be brief if they occur. Otherwise
occasional south wind gusts to 18 KTS expected at KABI this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm could bring wind gusts to 35
KTS this afternoon, south of I-20, but coverage is too low to
include in terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75 101  72  99  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  73  98  71  97  72 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271109
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  75  99  74  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 103  75 101  72  99 /  10  10   5   0   0
Junction 100  73  98  71  97 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 271109
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites through the
next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, but confidence is low that any of these storms
will affect the TAF sites. Southeast winds of 6 to 12 knots will
become light after 00z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  75  99  74  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 103  75 101  72  99 /  10  10   5   0   0
Junction 100  73  98  71  97 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 270849
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  75  99  74  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 103  75 101  72  99 /  10  10   5   0   0
Junction 100  73  98  71  97 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 270849
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day is expected across West Central Texas with the
potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms. I similar set up
to what we saw yesterday afternoon is expected this afternoon.
Although the upper level ridge will continue to dominate, enough
heating combined with slightly cooler mid level temperatures should
allow for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, generally south of Interstate 20. Coverage should be
limited, with most locations remaining dry. As temperatures this
afternoon climb into the 98 to 103 range, fairly significant
dewpoint depressions will develop. This will result in the potential
for some downbursts in the stronger convection. Any convection that
does develop should dissipate by mid evening. Overnight lows Tuesday
morning will be in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday though Monday)

Little change to the longer term part of the forecast. The upper
level ridge will weaken and shift to the north slightly, allowing
a little better moisture and a little cooler temperatures to move
into the area for mid week. Much like we saw yesterday, can not
rule out a stray shower or storm, but with the cap largely still
in place the odds so small we will not mention at this time.
However, by Friday and Saturday the ridge shifts off to the west
and places West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. Still don`t
see any significant shortwaves or surface boundaries to provide a
focus, but at least the cap will be weaker and perhaps convection
well to the north may be able to send an outflow boundary south
towards the area. Odds of convection are still small, but worth
keeping the slight chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  75  99  74  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 103  75 101  72  99 /  10  10   5   0   0
Junction 100  73  98  71  97 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 270438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus in the 500 to 1500 foot range may develop at KSOA and KJCT
for a few hours this morning. Here, isolated showers and
thunderstorms developed Sunday evening. Confidence in MVFR ceilings
developing wasn`t high enough to insert into the TAFs at this time,
and opted to cover this possibility with a scattered group.
Otherwise,  expect VFR conditions to persist through the next
24 hours, with south winds gusting near 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening near
KSJT and KJCT, with KJCT having reported a gust to 40 mph. This
convection is very small in size and slow moving. Based on
this/radar trends, we inserted VCSH at KSJT and KJCT. Given
current dew point depressions near 50 degrees, virga and wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible in/near these showers. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours, with
southeast wind gusts near 20 knots at all terminals Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Today has been as warm as advertised with a few locations already
hitting the 100 degree mark as of 2 pm this afternoon. A few
locations have registered heat index values of greater than 100
degrees, but so far have remained below Heat Advisory criteria.
Brady (KBBD) has shown readings over the threshold for Heat
Advisory, but the observation is an anomaly compared to
surrounding stations, so the data may not be reliable. We do have
an enhanced Cu field across the area, but no showers are expected
as the ridge is suppressing any significant vertical development
of these clouds.

Tonight will be another very warm night with lows only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s.

For tomorrow, there is an upper level low moving west across the
Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Although the low will move to the
west along a path just south of our area, the upper level ridge
should continue to keep precipitation out of our area. Otherwise,
temperatures will again be hot with several locations near 100
degrees for highs under partly cloudy skies.

20

LONG TERM...

Continued hot this week, with a nearly persistence forecast.
Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will shift north
over Oklahoma by Tuesday allowing a couple degree drop in high
temperatures. By Friday and Saturday, the center of upper high
pressure shifts west over the Four Corners Region, allowing weak
northerly flow aloft. This could bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  99  73  96  74 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  77 101  74  99  72 /   0   5   0   0   0
Junction  75 100  72  96  73 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 270438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus in the 500 to 1500 foot range may develop at KSOA and KJCT
for a few hours this morning. Here, isolated showers and
thunderstorms developed Sunday evening. Confidence in MVFR ceilings
developing wasn`t high enough to insert into the TAFs at this time,
and opted to cover this possibility with a scattered group.
Otherwise,  expect VFR conditions to persist through the next
24 hours, with south winds gusting near 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening near
KSJT and KJCT, with KJCT having reported a gust to 40 mph. This
convection is very small in size and slow moving. Based on
this/radar trends, we inserted VCSH at KSJT and KJCT. Given
current dew point depressions near 50 degrees, virga and wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible in/near these showers. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours, with
southeast wind gusts near 20 knots at all terminals Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Today has been as warm as advertised with a few locations already
hitting the 100 degree mark as of 2 pm this afternoon. A few
locations have registered heat index values of greater than 100
degrees, but so far have remained below Heat Advisory criteria.
Brady (KBBD) has shown readings over the threshold for Heat
Advisory, but the observation is an anomaly compared to
surrounding stations, so the data may not be reliable. We do have
an enhanced Cu field across the area, but no showers are expected
as the ridge is suppressing any significant vertical development
of these clouds.

Tonight will be another very warm night with lows only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s.

For tomorrow, there is an upper level low moving west across the
Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Although the low will move to the
west along a path just south of our area, the upper level ridge
should continue to keep precipitation out of our area. Otherwise,
temperatures will again be hot with several locations near 100
degrees for highs under partly cloudy skies.

20

LONG TERM...

Continued hot this week, with a nearly persistence forecast.
Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will shift north
over Oklahoma by Tuesday allowing a couple degree drop in high
temperatures. By Friday and Saturday, the center of upper high
pressure shifts west over the Four Corners Region, allowing weak
northerly flow aloft. This could bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  99  73  96  74 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  77 101  74  99  72 /   0   5   0   0   0
Junction  75 100  72  96  73 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 270438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus in the 500 to 1500 foot range may develop at KSOA and KJCT
for a few hours this morning. Here, isolated showers and
thunderstorms developed Sunday evening. Confidence in MVFR ceilings
developing wasn`t high enough to insert into the TAFs at this time,
and opted to cover this possibility with a scattered group.
Otherwise,  expect VFR conditions to persist through the next
24 hours, with south winds gusting near 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening near
KSJT and KJCT, with KJCT having reported a gust to 40 mph. This
convection is very small in size and slow moving. Based on
this/radar trends, we inserted VCSH at KSJT and KJCT. Given
current dew point depressions near 50 degrees, virga and wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible in/near these showers. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours, with
southeast wind gusts near 20 knots at all terminals Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Today has been as warm as advertised with a few locations already
hitting the 100 degree mark as of 2 pm this afternoon. A few
locations have registered heat index values of greater than 100
degrees, but so far have remained below Heat Advisory criteria.
Brady (KBBD) has shown readings over the threshold for Heat
Advisory, but the observation is an anomaly compared to
surrounding stations, so the data may not be reliable. We do have
an enhanced Cu field across the area, but no showers are expected
as the ridge is suppressing any significant vertical development
of these clouds.

Tonight will be another very warm night with lows only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s.

For tomorrow, there is an upper level low moving west across the
Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Although the low will move to the
west along a path just south of our area, the upper level ridge
should continue to keep precipitation out of our area. Otherwise,
temperatures will again be hot with several locations near 100
degrees for highs under partly cloudy skies.

20

LONG TERM...

Continued hot this week, with a nearly persistence forecast.
Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will shift north
over Oklahoma by Tuesday allowing a couple degree drop in high
temperatures. By Friday and Saturday, the center of upper high
pressure shifts west over the Four Corners Region, allowing weak
northerly flow aloft. This could bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  99  73  96  74 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  77 101  74  99  72 /   0   5   0   0   0
Junction  75 100  72  96  73 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 270438
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus in the 500 to 1500 foot range may develop at KSOA and KJCT
for a few hours this morning. Here, isolated showers and
thunderstorms developed Sunday evening. Confidence in MVFR ceilings
developing wasn`t high enough to insert into the TAFs at this time,
and opted to cover this possibility with a scattered group.
Otherwise,  expect VFR conditions to persist through the next
24 hours, with south winds gusting near 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening near
KSJT and KJCT, with KJCT having reported a gust to 40 mph. This
convection is very small in size and slow moving. Based on
this/radar trends, we inserted VCSH at KSJT and KJCT. Given
current dew point depressions near 50 degrees, virga and wind
gusts to 45 mph are possible in/near these showers. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24 hours, with
southeast wind gusts near 20 knots at all terminals Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Today has been as warm as advertised with a few locations already
hitting the 100 degree mark as of 2 pm this afternoon. A few
locations have registered heat index values of greater than 100
degrees, but so far have remained below Heat Advisory criteria.
Brady (KBBD) has shown readings over the threshold for Heat
Advisory, but the observation is an anomaly compared to
surrounding stations, so the data may not be reliable. We do have
an enhanced Cu field across the area, but no showers are expected
as the ridge is suppressing any significant vertical development
of these clouds.

Tonight will be another very warm night with lows only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s.

For tomorrow, there is an upper level low moving west across the
Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Although the low will move to the
west along a path just south of our area, the upper level ridge
should continue to keep precipitation out of our area. Otherwise,
temperatures will again be hot with several locations near 100
degrees for highs under partly cloudy skies.

20

LONG TERM...

Continued hot this week, with a nearly persistence forecast.
Upper level high pressure centered over Texas will shift north
over Oklahoma by Tuesday allowing a couple degree drop in high
temperatures. By Friday and Saturday, the center of upper high
pressure shifts west over the Four Corners Region, allowing weak
northerly flow aloft. This could bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm, but confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  99  73  96  74 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  77 101  74  99  72 /   0   5   0   0   0
Junction  75 100  72  96  73 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









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