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000
FXUS64 KSJT 060416
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings have currently dropped into the 1000 to 1500 feet range at
KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. We expect these ceilings to fall to around
800 feet after 08z. Farther north, look for ceilings to drop to
the 1500 to 2500 feet range for KABI and KSJT. These ceilings will
improve to VFR from north to south by late morning/early
afternoon, with south winds gusting to near 20 knots also
developing around this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will once again deteriorate overnight, with
ceilings dropping to around 800 feet across the southern
terminals, and into the 1200 to 2500 foot range farther north.
However, model guidance suggests these ceilings may need to be
lowered a category across the board and this will continue to be
monitored for the next forecast package. Otherwise, thunderstorms
may affect Abilene through 02z with mainly hit and miss showers
elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  30  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  20  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 060416
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings have currently dropped into the 1000 to 1500 feet range at
KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. We expect these ceilings to fall to around
800 feet after 08z. Farther north, look for ceilings to drop to
the 1500 to 2500 feet range for KABI and KSJT. These ceilings will
improve to VFR from north to south by late morning/early
afternoon, with south winds gusting to near 20 knots also
developing around this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will once again deteriorate overnight, with
ceilings dropping to around 800 feet across the southern
terminals, and into the 1200 to 2500 foot range farther north.
However, model guidance suggests these ceilings may need to be
lowered a category across the board and this will continue to be
monitored for the next forecast package. Otherwise, thunderstorms
may affect Abilene through 02z with mainly hit and miss showers
elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  30  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  20  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 052322
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will once again deteriorate overnight, with
ceilings dropping to around 800 feet across the southern
terminals, and into the 1200 to 2500 foot range farther north.
However, model guidance suggests these ceilings may need to be
lowered a category across the board and this will continue to be
monitored for the next forecast package. Otherwise, thunderstorms
may affect Abilene through 02z with mainly hit and miss showers
elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 052322
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will once again deteriorate overnight, with
ceilings dropping to around 800 feet across the southern
terminals, and into the 1200 to 2500 foot range farther north.
However, model guidance suggests these ceilings may need to be
lowered a category across the board and this will continue to be
monitored for the next forecast package. Otherwise, thunderstorms
may affect Abilene through 02z with mainly hit and miss showers
elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 052059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 052059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 052059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 052059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo  66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction  66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect low end VFR ceilings(BKN030-040) this afternoon and evening
across West Central Texas. Looks like widespread stratus will
spread north across the area late tonight with MVFR ceilings
developing at the terminals after 06Z. Also, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline just to our west. A few
of these storms will probably move east and get close to the KABI
and KSJT terminals early this evening. However, confidence is not
high enough to add thunder to the terminals. The winds will be
south with gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect low end VFR ceilings(BKN030-040) this afternoon and evening
across West Central Texas. Looks like widespread stratus will
spread north across the area late tonight with MVFR ceilings
developing at the terminals after 06Z. Also, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline just to our west. A few
of these storms will probably move east and get close to the KABI
and KSJT terminals early this evening. However, confidence is not
high enough to add thunder to the terminals. The winds will be
south with gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect low end VFR ceilings(BKN030-040) this afternoon and evening
across West Central Texas. Looks like widespread stratus will
spread north across the area late tonight with MVFR ceilings
developing at the terminals after 06Z. Also, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline just to our west. A few
of these storms will probably move east and get close to the KABI
and KSJT terminals early this evening. However, confidence is not
high enough to add thunder to the terminals. The winds will be
south with gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 051708
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect low end VFR ceilings(BKN030-040) this afternoon and evening
across West Central Texas. Looks like widespread stratus will
spread north across the area late tonight with MVFR ceilings
developing at the terminals after 06Z. Also, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop along a dryline just to our west. A few
of these storms will probably move east and get close to the KABI
and KSJT terminals early this evening. However, confidence is not
high enough to add thunder to the terminals. The winds will be
south with gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 051047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 051047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
547 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING AT KABI...KSJT AND POSSIBLY KBBD MID MORNING. HAD VCTS
AT KABI BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 050838
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050838
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 050838
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050838
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
338 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper shortwave in the 4 corners region will move northeast into
Colorado today, with best lift over the Big Country and northern
Concho Valley this morning and early afternoon. While this area
has the best chance of rain, the best potential for severe weather
will be in Crockett County and Western Concho Valley, east of a
Permian Basin/Trans Pecos dryline. GFS SB CAPES vary from 1500 to
2000 J/KG this afternoon (with higher values to the west) with 0-6
KM shear of 50 KTS over Crockett County. While severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, the
main threat may be heavy rainfall. Midland upper air precipitable
waters are about 200 percent of average. Some of the high
precipitable waters may move into western sections of the Concho
Valley and Big Country.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main theme in the long term portion of the forecast will
continue to be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Currently, we have an upper level low over Arizona that will be
moving off to the northeast over the next 24 hours or so. Behind
this low is another strong upper level that is moving southeast
into the Pacific Northwest coast. This second low will drop south
into southern California by Thursday afternoon/evening. This
second low will maintain our southwest flow aloft, which is likely
to result in passing weak ripples of energy moving across our area
between Wednesday and the end of the week.

This set up will maintain a good flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico for our area. The dryline will be able to mix east into our
western counties during the afternoons, but probably not much
farther than that. While it`s hard to argue against having at
least some chance of precipitation in the forecast, Wednesday into
Thursday, it`s hard to latch onto a specific feature, other than
the dryline, that will serve to initiate widespread organized
convection for our area. However, with a moist and unstable air
mass in place, we could see isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, so have kept generally a slight
chance to chance in for the area for Wednesday and Thursday.

By the end of the week, as the next upper level low moves toward
the area, parts of west Texas should see another round of more
organized, widespread thunderstorm activity. However, the low is
expected to take a similar northern path as the current AZ low.
This would likely lead to the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly off to our west through northwest as we saw
yesterday afternoon and last night. That said, will maintain
chance to likely PoPs Friday into Saturday morning for this next
low.

With surface based CAPE values generally between 1000 and 2000
J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values 35-50 knots through the end of
the week, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential
to strengthen to severe levels, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. In addition, precipitable water values
will be between 1 and 1.25 inches through the period, so heavy
rainfall, and local flooding will also be a concern, especially if
any training of activity develops over a particular area.

Models push a front into the area early next week, resulting in a
broad, stalled frontal zone over our area. Should this occur,
precipitation chances would continue. Have only gone with slight
chances for now as that is 6/7 days out at this time.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  40  40
San Angelo  76  66  83  67  87 /  40  40  30  20  20
Junction  77  66  82  67  84 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 050441
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Widespread convection continues across West Central TX and may be
a factor at KABI during the overnight hours. At KABI, VCSH was
included after 08z, with the remaining terminals dry. Low clouds
are expected to develop once again areawide, and may encroach on
IFR range (<1000 ft) during the early morning hours. The most
likely area for IFR ceilings will be along the I-10 corridor.
However, the abundant mid/high cloud cover and strong low-level
jet may preclude ceilings below 1000 ft.

MVFR ceilings will persist most of the day and scattered
convection is anticipated by late morning across much of West
Central TX. Thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon and
evening hours, but scattered coverage limits the probability at
any given forecast terminal. Thus, -SHRA and VCSH were included as
the prevailing weather group for now.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

UPDATE...
Convection continues to the west of the CWA. One batch of storms
is lifting slowly northeast across the South Plains from Lamesa to
near Snyder. A few showers and thunderstorms extend to the south
and southeast from this complex, generally along and north of the
Colorado River. Farther south, a persistent, right-moving
supercell continues to parallel I-10 near Ft. Stockton, with
additional development to its west. Given the proximity of this
storm to Crockett County, a Tornado Watch was issued through 2 AM.

Surface based instability is a bit more limited east of the Pecos
River, so the thinking is that this storm should weaken as it
moves into Crockett County. However, the HRRR has shown a tendency
for additional development in the Big Bend area overnight. There
is also the potential for additional thunderstorms to move into
the Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight and early Tuesday.
If this occurs, it may limit the severe weather potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Will have to wait and see how this
plays out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet
range after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping
to around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20
knots are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing
to near 30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals,
and near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have
inserted VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based
on radar trends..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be
farther west over the Permian Basin. We may see a few storms cross
into our western counties this evening...so have kept
precipitation chances going overnight. For tomorrow...an upper
trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west
Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area. Increased cloud
cover may limit instability slightly. However, with decent shear
across the area, expect more organized convection to develop
tomorrow afternoon with a slightly higher threat for severe
weather. Think the best chance for severe storms will be across
the northern and western parts of the area. Storms should continue
into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 050441
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Widespread convection continues across West Central TX and may be
a factor at KABI during the overnight hours. At KABI, VCSH was
included after 08z, with the remaining terminals dry. Low clouds
are expected to develop once again areawide, and may encroach on
IFR range (<1000 ft) during the early morning hours. The most
likely area for IFR ceilings will be along the I-10 corridor.
However, the abundant mid/high cloud cover and strong low-level
jet may preclude ceilings below 1000 ft.

MVFR ceilings will persist most of the day and scattered
convection is anticipated by late morning across much of West
Central TX. Thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon and
evening hours, but scattered coverage limits the probability at
any given forecast terminal. Thus, -SHRA and VCSH were included as
the prevailing weather group for now.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

UPDATE...
Convection continues to the west of the CWA. One batch of storms
is lifting slowly northeast across the South Plains from Lamesa to
near Snyder. A few showers and thunderstorms extend to the south
and southeast from this complex, generally along and north of the
Colorado River. Farther south, a persistent, right-moving
supercell continues to parallel I-10 near Ft. Stockton, with
additional development to its west. Given the proximity of this
storm to Crockett County, a Tornado Watch was issued through 2 AM.

Surface based instability is a bit more limited east of the Pecos
River, so the thinking is that this storm should weaken as it
moves into Crockett County. However, the HRRR has shown a tendency
for additional development in the Big Bend area overnight. There
is also the potential for additional thunderstorms to move into
the Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight and early Tuesday.
If this occurs, it may limit the severe weather potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Will have to wait and see how this
plays out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet
range after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping
to around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20
knots are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing
to near 30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals,
and near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have
inserted VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based
on radar trends..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be
farther west over the Permian Basin. We may see a few storms cross
into our western counties this evening...so have kept
precipitation chances going overnight. For tomorrow...an upper
trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west
Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area. Increased cloud
cover may limit instability slightly. However, with decent shear
across the area, expect more organized convection to develop
tomorrow afternoon with a slightly higher threat for severe
weather. Think the best chance for severe storms will be across
the northern and western parts of the area. Storms should continue
into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050441
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Widespread convection continues across West Central TX and may be
a factor at KABI during the overnight hours. At KABI, VCSH was
included after 08z, with the remaining terminals dry. Low clouds
are expected to develop once again areawide, and may encroach on
IFR range (<1000 ft) during the early morning hours. The most
likely area for IFR ceilings will be along the I-10 corridor.
However, the abundant mid/high cloud cover and strong low-level
jet may preclude ceilings below 1000 ft.

MVFR ceilings will persist most of the day and scattered
convection is anticipated by late morning across much of West
Central TX. Thunderstorms are forecast for the afternoon and
evening hours, but scattered coverage limits the probability at
any given forecast terminal. Thus, -SHRA and VCSH were included as
the prevailing weather group for now.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

UPDATE...
Convection continues to the west of the CWA. One batch of storms
is lifting slowly northeast across the South Plains from Lamesa to
near Snyder. A few showers and thunderstorms extend to the south
and southeast from this complex, generally along and north of the
Colorado River. Farther south, a persistent, right-moving
supercell continues to parallel I-10 near Ft. Stockton, with
additional development to its west. Given the proximity of this
storm to Crockett County, a Tornado Watch was issued through 2 AM.

Surface based instability is a bit more limited east of the Pecos
River, so the thinking is that this storm should weaken as it
moves into Crockett County. However, the HRRR has shown a tendency
for additional development in the Big Bend area overnight. There
is also the potential for additional thunderstorms to move into
the Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight and early Tuesday.
If this occurs, it may limit the severe weather potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Will have to wait and see how this
plays out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet
range after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping
to around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20
knots are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing
to near 30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals,
and near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have
inserted VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based
on radar trends..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be
farther west over the Permian Basin. We may see a few storms cross
into our western counties this evening...so have kept
precipitation chances going overnight. For tomorrow...an upper
trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west
Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area. Increased cloud
cover may limit instability slightly. However, with decent shear
across the area, expect more organized convection to develop
tomorrow afternoon with a slightly higher threat for severe
weather. Think the best chance for severe storms will be across
the northern and western parts of the area. Storms should continue
into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050136
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
836 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Convection continues to the west of the CWA. One batch of storms
is lifting slowly northeast across the South Plains from Lamesa to
near Snyder. A few showers and thunderstorms extend to the south
and southeast from this complex, generally along and north of the
Colorado River. Farther south, a persistent, right-moving
supercell continues to parallel I-10 near Ft. Stockton, with
additional development to its west. Given the proximity of this
storm to Crockett County, a Tornado Watch was issued through 2 AM.

Surface based instability is a bit more limited east of the Pecos
River, so the thinking is that this storm should weaken as it
moves into Crockett County. However, the HRRR has shown a tendency
for additional development in the Big Bend area overnight. There
is also the potential for additional thunderstorms to move into
the Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight and early Tuesday.
If this occurs, it may limit the severe weather potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Will have to wait and see how this
plays out.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet
range after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping
to around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20
knots are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing
to near 30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals,
and near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have
inserted VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based
on radar trends..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be
farther west over the Permian Basin. We may see a few storms cross
into our western counties this evening...so have kept
precipitation chances going overnight. For tomorrow...an upper
trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west
Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area. Increased cloud
cover may limit instability slightly. However, with decent shear
across the area, expect more organized convection to develop
tomorrow afternoon with a slightly higher threat for severe
weather. Think the best chance for severe storms will be across
the northern and western parts of the area. Storms should continue
into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 050136
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
836 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Convection continues to the west of the CWA. One batch of storms
is lifting slowly northeast across the South Plains from Lamesa to
near Snyder. A few showers and thunderstorms extend to the south
and southeast from this complex, generally along and north of the
Colorado River. Farther south, a persistent, right-moving
supercell continues to parallel I-10 near Ft. Stockton, with
additional development to its west. Given the proximity of this
storm to Crockett County, a Tornado Watch was issued through 2 AM.

Surface based instability is a bit more limited east of the Pecos
River, so the thinking is that this storm should weaken as it
moves into Crockett County. However, the HRRR has shown a tendency
for additional development in the Big Bend area overnight. There
is also the potential for additional thunderstorms to move into
the Big Country and Concho Valley late tonight and early Tuesday.
If this occurs, it may limit the severe weather potential for
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Will have to wait and see how this
plays out.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet
range after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping
to around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20
knots are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing
to near 30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals,
and near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have
inserted VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based
on radar trends..

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be
farther west over the Permian Basin. We may see a few storms cross
into our western counties this evening...so have kept
precipitation chances going overnight. For tomorrow...an upper
trough over eastern New Mexico will head northeast across west
Texas as the dryline heads east toward our area. Increased cloud
cover may limit instability slightly. However, with decent shear
across the area, expect more organized convection to develop
tomorrow afternoon with a slightly higher threat for severe
weather. Think the best chance for severe storms will be across
the northern and western parts of the area. Storms should continue
into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 042329
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet range
after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping to
around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20 knots
are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing to near
30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals, and
near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have inserted
VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based on radar
trends..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be farther
west over the Permian Basin.  We may see a few storms cross into our
western counties this evening...so have kept precipitation chances
going overnight.  For tomorrow...an upper trough over eastern New
Mexico will head northeast across west Texas as the dryline heads
east toward our area. Increased cloud cover may limit instability
slightly.  However, with decent shear across the area, expect more
organized convection to develop tomorrow afternoon with a slightly
higher threat for severe weather. Think the best chance for severe
storms will be across the northern and western parts of the area.
Storms should continue into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 042329
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Ceilings will drop into the 1500 to 2500 feet range
after 04z at all TAF sites, with southern terminals dropping to
around 800 feet after 08z. Southeast winds gusting over 20 knots
are likely area- wide tonight, with these gusts increasing to near
30 knots tomorrow afternoon across the northern terminals, and
near/over 20 knots farther south. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop at any time during the TAF cycle. For now, have inserted
VCTS at KABI and KSJT for the next couple of hours based on radar
trends..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be farther
west over the Permian Basin.  We may see a few storms cross into our
western counties this evening...so have kept precipitation chances
going overnight.  For tomorrow...an upper trough over eastern New
Mexico will head northeast across west Texas as the dryline heads
east toward our area. Increased cloud cover may limit instability
slightly.  However, with decent shear across the area, expect more
organized convection to develop tomorrow afternoon with a slightly
higher threat for severe weather. Think the best chance for severe
storms will be across the northern and western parts of the area.
Storms should continue into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 042053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be farther
west over the Permian Basin.  We may see a few storms cross into our
western counties this evening...so have kept precipitation chances
going overnight.  For tomorrow...an upper trough over eastern New
Mexico will head northeast across west Texas as the dryline heads
east toward our area. Increased cloud cover may limit instability
slightly.  However, with decent shear across the area, expect more
organized convection to develop tomorrow afternoon with a slightly
higher threat for severe weather. Think the best chance for severe
storms will be across the northern and western parts of the area.
Storms should continue into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 042053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday Night)

The main weather concerns for the short term will be the isolated
threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and a little more
widespread threat for severe weather Tuesday.

Thunderstorms have already developed this afternoon across much of
west central Texas. So far, storms have been of the single cell
pulse variety and staying below severe levels. We may see an
isolated storm or two produce severe hail this afternoon/evening.
However, the bigger threat for severe weather today will be farther
west over the Permian Basin.  We may see a few storms cross into our
western counties this evening...so have kept precipitation chances
going overnight.  For tomorrow...an upper trough over eastern New
Mexico will head northeast across west Texas as the dryline heads
east toward our area. Increased cloud cover may limit instability
slightly.  However, with decent shear across the area, expect more
organized convection to develop tomorrow afternoon with a slightly
higher threat for severe weather. Think the best chance for severe
storms will be across the northern and western parts of the area.
Storms should continue into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday-Monday)

Unsettled weather will continue through the majority of the
extended period, with showers and thunderstorms possible through
next weekend.

The short-wave trough will lift northeast of the area on
Wednesday, while another significant upper trough develops across
the western states. We`ll remain in southwest flow aloft ahead of
this system through Friday, with periodic disturbances moving
across the area. The dryline will remain west of the area on
Wednesday but will mix east into far western counties Thursday
and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
just about anywhere on Wednesday due to a weaker CAP, with a few
strong to severe storms possible during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will remain a possibility
Thursday and Friday ahead of the upper trough to our west, with a
continued chance for severe storms next weekend as the upper
trough moves across the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  74  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  76  65  82  66 /  30  30  40  30  30
Junction  64  77  66  80  67 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 041718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings currently prevail at the KSOA terminal and will
lift later this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail. MFRV
ceilings are expected to return late this evening across all
terminals as we approach midnight. Expect gusty southeast winds to
persist through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and this evening. Ceilings and visibility
may briefly drop as the storms pass.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  76  63  79  65 /  30  60  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  77  63  81  65 /  30  50  40  40  30
Junction  64  78  65  80  66 /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18







000
FXUS64 KSJT 041718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings currently prevail at the KSOA terminal and will
lift later this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail. MFRV
ceilings are expected to return late this evening across all
terminals as we approach midnight. Expect gusty southeast winds to
persist through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and this evening. Ceilings and visibility
may briefly drop as the storms pass.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  76  63  79  65 /  30  60  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  77  63  81  65 /  30  50  40  40  30
Junction  64  78  65  80  66 /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18






000
FXUS64 KSJT 041718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings currently prevail at the KSOA terminal and will
lift later this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail. MFRV
ceilings are expected to return late this evening across all
terminals as we approach midnight. Expect gusty southeast winds to
persist through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and this evening. Ceilings and visibility
may briefly drop as the storms pass.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  76  63  79  65 /  30  60  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  77  63  81  65 /  30  50  40  40  30
Junction  64  78  65  80  66 /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18






000
FXUS64 KSJT 041718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings currently prevail at the KSOA terminal and will
lift later this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail. MFRV
ceilings are expected to return late this evening across all
terminals as we approach midnight. Expect gusty southeast winds to
persist through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and this evening. Ceilings and visibility
may briefly drop as the storms pass.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  76  63  79  65 /  30  60  60  40  40
San Angelo  63  77  63  81  65 /  30  50  40  40  30
Junction  64  78  65  80  66 /  20  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18







000
FXUS64 KSJT 041031
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 041031
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 040850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 040850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 040850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long
term.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 040402
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Hill Country and is
forecast to spread north through the next few hours, resulting in
MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites. VFR conditions will return to all
sites by late morning or early afternoon Monday. South to
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are forecast through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to
include in the current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorms developed along the TX-NM border this evening from
the Panhandle south into the Davis Mountains. This activity
continues to move in a general northeast direction but will weaken
as they cross the Permian Basin. The 00z KMAF raob indicated only
a weak cap in place, but this cap increases in strength farther
east. A much strong capping inversion was present on the KDRT and
KFWD profiles. CINH will increase with the loss of diurnal
heating, but some of this convection may sneak into the southwest
portion of the CWA. Slight chance PoPs were included overnight,
mainly southwest of a Big Lake to Sonora line. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the inherited forecast based on recent
surface observations.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across the region
through at least the next week as general southwesterly flow
aloft develops in advance of a series of shortwave troughs progged
to move across the Four Corners region. The southwest winds aloft
will advect an EML across the area, helping to maintain rather
steep mid-level lapse rates. the persistent southerly flow will
promote low-level moistening and the dryline will encroach on the
western portion of the CWA several times this week. While the
potential for severe weather will exist most days this week, the
greatest threat look to be on Tuesday.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe
thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday as upper level
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft move northeast and
interact with the dryline. A better chance for thunderstorms will
continue for next Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040402
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Hill Country and is
forecast to spread north through the next few hours, resulting in
MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites. VFR conditions will return to all
sites by late morning or early afternoon Monday. South to
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are forecast through the next 24
hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to
include in the current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

UPDATE...
Thunderstorms developed along the TX-NM border this evening from
the Panhandle south into the Davis Mountains. This activity
continues to move in a general northeast direction but will weaken
as they cross the Permian Basin. The 00z KMAF raob indicated only
a weak cap in place, but this cap increases in strength farther
east. A much strong capping inversion was present on the KDRT and
KFWD profiles. CINH will increase with the loss of diurnal
heating, but some of this convection may sneak into the southwest
portion of the CWA. Slight chance PoPs were included overnight,
mainly southwest of a Big Lake to Sonora line. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the inherited forecast based on recent
surface observations.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across the region
through at least the next week as general southwesterly flow
aloft develops in advance of a series of shortwave troughs progged
to move across the Four Corners region. The southwest winds aloft
will advect an EML across the area, helping to maintain rather
steep mid-level lapse rates. the persistent southerly flow will
promote low-level moistening and the dryline will encroach on the
western portion of the CWA several times this week. While the
potential for severe weather will exist most days this week, the
greatest threat look to be on Tuesday.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe
thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday as upper level
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft move northeast and
interact with the dryline. A better chance for thunderstorms will
continue for next Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040119
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
819 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms developed along the TX-NM border this evening from
the Panhandle south into the Davis Mountains. This activity
continues to move in a general northeast direction but will weaken
as they cross the Permian Basin. The 00z KMAF raob indicated only
a weak cap in place, but this cap increases in strength farther
east. A much strong capping inversion was present on the KDRT and
KFWD profiles. CINH will increase with the loss of diurnal
heating, but some of this convection may sneak into the southwest
portion of the CWA. Slight chance PoPs were included overnight,
mainly southwest of a Big Lake to Sonora line. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the inherited forecast based on recent
surface observations.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across the region
through at least the next week as general southwesterly flow
aloft develops in advance of a series of shortwave troughs progged
to move across the Four Corners region. The southwest winds aloft
will advect an EML across the area, helping to maintain rather
steep mid-level lapse rates. the persistent southerly flow will
promote low-level moistening and the dryline will encroach on the
western portion of the CWA several times this week. While the
potential for severe weather will exist most days this week, the
greatest threat look to be on Tuesday.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe
thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday as upper level
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft move northeast and
interact with the dryline. A better chance for thunderstorms will
continue for next Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040119
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
819 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorms developed along the TX-NM border this evening from
the Panhandle south into the Davis Mountains. This activity
continues to move in a general northeast direction but will weaken
as they cross the Permian Basin. The 00z KMAF raob indicated only
a weak cap in place, but this cap increases in strength farther
east. A much strong capping inversion was present on the KDRT and
KFWD profiles. CINH will increase with the loss of diurnal
heating, but some of this convection may sneak into the southwest
portion of the CWA. Slight chance PoPs were included overnight,
mainly southwest of a Big Lake to Sonora line. Otherwise, only
minor changes were made to the inherited forecast based on recent
surface observations.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across the region
through at least the next week as general southwesterly flow
aloft develops in advance of a series of shortwave troughs progged
to move across the Four Corners region. The southwest winds aloft
will advect an EML across the area, helping to maintain rather
steep mid-level lapse rates. the persistent southerly flow will
promote low-level moistening and the dryline will encroach on the
western portion of the CWA several times this week. While the
potential for severe weather will exist most days this week, the
greatest threat look to be on Tuesday.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe
thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday as upper level
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft move northeast and
interact with the dryline. A better chance for thunderstorms will
continue for next Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99








000
FXUS64 KSJT 032305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 032305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 032305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 032305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT around 05z,
then spread north to KSJT and KABI between 06z and 07z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are forecast to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently over West Texas are forecast to remain to
the west of the TAF sites overnight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package. Expect
south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /   5  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  60  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 032036
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /  10  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  50  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 031729
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low level moisture is returning to West Central Texas, as
evidenced by the MVFR ceilings that moved in across many of the
terminals this morning. Most areas have seen these low clouds
scatter out and lift late this morning, and all areas should see
VFR conditions from mid afternoon through this evening. However,
all indications are that the MVFR cigs will return overnight and
continue well into Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  70
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 031729
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low level moisture is returning to West Central Texas, as
evidenced by the MVFR ceilings that moved in across many of the
terminals this morning. Most areas have seen these low clouds
scatter out and lift late this morning, and all areas should see
VFR conditions from mid afternoon through this evening. However,
all indications are that the MVFR cigs will return overnight and
continue well into Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  70
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 031729
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low level moisture is returning to West Central Texas, as
evidenced by the MVFR ceilings that moved in across many of the
terminals this morning. Most areas have seen these low clouds
scatter out and lift late this morning, and all areas should see
VFR conditions from mid afternoon through this evening. However,
all indications are that the MVFR cigs will return overnight and
continue well into Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  70
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 031729
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low level moisture is returning to West Central Texas, as
evidenced by the MVFR ceilings that moved in across many of the
terminals this morning. Most areas have seen these low clouds
scatter out and lift late this morning, and all areas should see
VFR conditions from mid afternoon through this evening. However,
all indications are that the MVFR cigs will return overnight and
continue well into Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  70
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 031103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 031103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 030924
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 030924
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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