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000
FXUS64 KSJT 302042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Models continue to advertise a faster frontal passage, and this
looks reasonable based on current surface observations. Most of the
short range models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the next few hours, mainly north of Interstate 20,
spreading south as we head through the evening. Given the faster
frontal passage advertised by the models, precipitation chances were
expanded south. Overall, the coverage of the showers/thunderstorms
looks spotty at best.

The front will clear the I-10 corridor Thursday morning, stalling
just south of the area by afternoon. Moisture will be slow to scour
out across the southern half of the area, with precipitable water
values remaining above 1.5 inches south of a Sterling City to
Brownwood line. Given the proximity of the front, and favorable
upslope flow following the cold frontal passage, precipitation
chances were increased near Interstate 10. With cold advection and
increased cloud cover behind the front, highs were lowered a few
degrees, ranging from the mid 80s across northern areas, to near 90
degrees farther south.

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday Night through Saturday/
There will be a slight chance of rain across the southern 1/3 of the
area late this week into the first part of the weekend. The
combination of weak ascent and some instability will lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Also, cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold
front with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

/Saturday Night through Wednesday/
Looks like a dry forecast with temperatures warming back to around
seasonable levels. Weak upper level north to northwest flow will
prevail through the early part of the next week, then a high
pressure ridge builds across the area. As a result, not much
instability or upper level forcing to work with. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  65  87  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  71  90  67  90  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
Junction  73  92  71  92  70 /  10  30  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll/21









000
FXUS64 KSJT 302042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Models continue to advertise a faster frontal passage, and this
looks reasonable based on current surface observations. Most of the
short range models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the next few hours, mainly north of Interstate 20,
spreading south as we head through the evening. Given the faster
frontal passage advertised by the models, precipitation chances were
expanded south. Overall, the coverage of the showers/thunderstorms
looks spotty at best.

The front will clear the I-10 corridor Thursday morning, stalling
just south of the area by afternoon. Moisture will be slow to scour
out across the southern half of the area, with precipitable water
values remaining above 1.5 inches south of a Sterling City to
Brownwood line. Given the proximity of the front, and favorable
upslope flow following the cold frontal passage, precipitation
chances were increased near Interstate 10. With cold advection and
increased cloud cover behind the front, highs were lowered a few
degrees, ranging from the mid 80s across northern areas, to near 90
degrees farther south.

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday Night through Saturday/
There will be a slight chance of rain across the southern 1/3 of the
area late this week into the first part of the weekend. The
combination of weak ascent and some instability will lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Also, cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold
front with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

/Saturday Night through Wednesday/
Looks like a dry forecast with temperatures warming back to around
seasonable levels. Weak upper level north to northwest flow will
prevail through the early part of the next week, then a high
pressure ridge builds across the area. As a result, not much
instability or upper level forcing to work with. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  65  87  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  71  90  67  90  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
Junction  73  92  71  92  70 /  10  30  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll/21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 301722
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Southerly wind gusts near 20 KTS will diminish after sunset. A
cold front will pass through KABI around 08z, reaching southern
terminals after 10Z. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may affect
KABI this evening/overnight, and the remaining terminals tomorrow.
Models also hint at MVFR ceilings developing overnight at all
terminals except KSOA. For now, we`ve maintained VFR conditions
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms
possible at KABI after 20Z, but expected coverage is too small to
include in the TAF. A weak cold front will move through KABI after
10Z tonight, shifting winds to the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 301722
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Southerly wind gusts near 20 KTS will diminish after sunset. A
cold front will pass through KABI around 08z, reaching southern
terminals after 10Z. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may affect
KABI this evening/overnight, and the remaining terminals tomorrow.
Models also hint at MVFR ceilings developing overnight at all
terminals except KSOA. For now, we`ve maintained VFR conditions
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms
possible at KABI after 20Z, but expected coverage is too small to
include in the TAF. A weak cold front will move through KABI after
10Z tonight, shifting winds to the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 301129
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms
possible at KABI after 20Z, but expected coverage is too small to
include in the TAF. A weak cold front will move through KABI after
10Z tonight, shifting winds to the north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04










000
FXUS64 KSJT 301129
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms
possible at KABI after 20Z, but expected coverage is too small to
include in the TAF. A weak cold front will move through KABI after
10Z tonight, shifting winds to the north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 300849
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 300849
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The NAM and GFS models generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving into the Red River Valley late
afternoon, Over all, storm coverage is indicated to be more sparse
than Tuesday. Instability is also less, with NAM And GFS SB CAPES
at 7 PM CDT less than 200 J/KG. Frontal passage is indicated to be
slower than yesterdays models, with the front along an Sweetwater
to Haskell line around 1 AM tonight, and from San Angelo to
Abilene around 7 AM Thursday. Depending on the amount of
convection, however, the cold front may be pushed slightly faster
and farther south.

Southerly winds will be stronger and more gusty today, as a
surface low develops in the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs
will be 2-4 degrees warmer in the mid 90s in the Big Country
today, with more isolated storm coverage. Highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees expected farther south, despite upper level
cloudiness.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

The much-advertised cold front is still expected to move into and
through most of the area during the day Thursday. As the front
moves through the area, precipitation chances will shift generally
from the northern third of the CWA to the southern third.

Models have generally good agreement of the initial push of the
front with the 29/00Z runs, pushing it into our I-10 corridor by
Thursday evening. Thereafter, the front becomes diffuse, and hard
to discern in model data. Have kept the general theme from the
previous forecast with regard to precipitation chances. Will keep
20-30 percent chances across most of the area Thursday, and a
general migration of rain chances southward into our I-10
corridor by Friday night.

The GFS/ECMWF keep a moisture plume near our southern counties,
and generally northwest up the Pecos River Valley through Saturday
night, with the EC being slightly drier. This, along with
persistent easterly upslope flow across the area argues for
keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday for our I-10 corridor counties into the southern
Concho Valley. Have kept a slight chance only in Crockett County
for Sunday/Sunday night for now, but this may need to be expanded
back to the east as well in future updates to the forecast.

Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs initially
in the 80s across the Big Country, lower 90s south for Thursday
and Friday, with temperatures generally in the lower 90s for the
entire area from Saturday into early next week. Lows will remain
near normal, generally from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  70  85  66  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  99  72  91  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  98  72  92  72  91 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300422
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Scattered showers will continue to move east across the Big
Country this evening, but should remain north of KABI. Otherwise,
generally dry conditions with SCT/BKN high clouds are expected at
the forecast terminals overnight with light southeast winds. South
winds will ramp up by mid-morning into the 12-16 kt range,
gusting to 20 kts or more through the afternoon hours. A diurnal
cumulus field will develop, climbing to 9-10 kft by peak heating.
Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly north of I-20. However, low confidence does not warrant
mention in the KABI TAF at this time. Wind speeds will diminish to
generally 10 kts or less by 02z.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorm activity will continue for the next several
hours over the Big Country and the northern Concho Valley.

DISCUSSION...
Have increased POPs over the Big Country and northern Concho Valley
with lingering on-going activity. Have also updated other parameters
given substantial associated cooling. Showers and thunderstorms
should diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  20  10  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25









000
FXUS64 KSJT 300422
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Scattered showers will continue to move east across the Big
Country this evening, but should remain north of KABI. Otherwise,
generally dry conditions with SCT/BKN high clouds are expected at
the forecast terminals overnight with light southeast winds. South
winds will ramp up by mid-morning into the 12-16 kt range,
gusting to 20 kts or more through the afternoon hours. A diurnal
cumulus field will develop, climbing to 9-10 kft by peak heating.
Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
mainly north of I-20. However, low confidence does not warrant
mention in the KABI TAF at this time. Wind speeds will diminish to
generally 10 kts or less by 02z.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorm activity will continue for the next several
hours over the Big Country and the northern Concho Valley.

DISCUSSION...
Have increased POPs over the Big Country and northern Concho Valley
with lingering on-going activity. Have also updated other parameters
given substantial associated cooling. Showers and thunderstorms
should diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  20  10  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25










000
FXUS64 KSJT 292340
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorm activity will continue for the next several
hours over the Big Country and the northern Concho Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have increased POPs over the Big Country and northern Concho Valley
with lingering on-going activity. Have also updated other parameters
given substantial associated cooling. Showers and thunderstorms
should diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/



.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  10  20  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DOLL/JW













000
FXUS64 KSJT 292340
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorm activity will continue for the next several
hours over the Big Country and the northern Concho Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have increased POPs over the Big Country and northern Concho Valley
with lingering on-going activity. Have also updated other parameters
given substantial associated cooling. Showers and thunderstorms
should diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/



.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  10  20  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DOLL/JW












000
FXUS64 KSJT 292336
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue over the Big
Country early this evening but should begin to diminish over the
next few hours as daytime heating ceases. Prevailing thunder was
carried at KABI through 0030Z, with dry conditions elsewhere. Once
convection dissipates, we`ll see generally dry weather overnight
with broken mid/upper-level cloud cover. Winds will increase
Wednesday morning, gusting over 20 kts at times through the
afternoon hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again Wednesday, primarily north of I-20, only affecting
KABI.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings
across the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the
cooling temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high
cloud bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms
that develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with
a few locations touching 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry conditions
for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north with the front
and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will maintain a 20
to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area
Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves through, with a
slight chance for precipitation across far southern sections
Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  20  10  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25










000
FXUS64 KSJT 292336
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue over the Big
Country early this evening but should begin to diminish over the
next few hours as daytime heating ceases. Prevailing thunder was
carried at KABI through 0030Z, with dry conditions elsewhere. Once
convection dissipates, we`ll see generally dry weather overnight
with broken mid/upper-level cloud cover. Winds will increase
Wednesday morning, gusting over 20 kts at times through the
afternoon hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again Wednesday, primarily north of I-20, only affecting
KABI.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings
across the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the
cooling temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high
cloud bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms
that develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with
a few locations touching 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry conditions
for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north with the front
and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will maintain a 20
to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area
Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves through, with a
slight chance for precipitation across far southern sections
Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  20  10  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25









000
FXUS64 KSJT 292053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  10  20  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DOLL/JW










000
FXUS64 KSJT 292053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

At 3 pm, afternoon clouds are a little more widespread today,
helping cool temperatures a few degrees, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Mesoanalysis and point soundings across
the area show cloud bases are slightly lower, due to the cooling
temperatures helping to decrease the temperature/dewpoint
depression. However, with cloud bases around/above 7000 feet, and
the aforementioned depression greater than 35 degrees Fahrenheit
in most areas, microbursts remain possible. Mesoanalysis show
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE available for the thunderstorms to work
with, so a few strong/marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out.
The main storm hazards will be deadly cloud to ground lightning,
and wind gusts over 40 mph with the stronger thunderstorms that
develop. These showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish after
sunset, with the loss of heating. Lows tonight will be mainly
lower 70s.

For tomorrow, models develop isolated showers and thunderstorms
across northern parts of the area, mainly north of the Colorado
River. We believe this potential may be a little less in coverage
compared to today/yesterday. Model analysis again shows high cloud
bases, leading to a microburst potential with any storms that
develop. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the upper 90s, with a few
locations touching 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night into
early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures areawide through
next weekend, along with a chance of rainfall into Saturday.

Models agree that the synoptic cold front will enter the northern
Big Country counties late Wednesday evening and will move slowly
south across the area on Thursday. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the entire area Thursday through next weekend,
with below normal high temperatures through the period. As for
rain chances, the 18Z GFS has come in considerably wetter and is
currently the outlier compared to the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS
stalls the front across southern sections Thursday night through
Saturday and generates a considerable amount of QPF along and
north of the front through the period. The EC and NAM drive the
front south of the area by Thursday evening, with precipitation
confined to southern sections by Friday evening and dry
conditions for Saturday. Believe that the GFS is too far north
with the front and have discounted its wetter solution. Thus, will
maintain a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves
through, with a slight chance for precipitation across far
southern sections Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler behind the front on
Thursday, especially across northern counties. Highs will range
from the lower to middle 80s across the Big country, to the upper
80s and lower 90s elsewhere. Below normal temperatures continue
Friday through next Monday with afternoon highs mainly in the
lower 90s. Lows through the period will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  97  70  85  67 /  10  20  20  20  10
San Angelo  73  99  72  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  71  98  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DOLL/JW











000
FXUS64 KSJT 291718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Guidance has come in a few degrees cooler with afternoon highs
today. Given numerous boundaries in the area, and with afternoon
clouds/isolated convection developing, we`ve lowered temperatures
a couple of degrees across the area. Mesoanalysis and point
soundings indicate a microburst environment is in place. Thus,
wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. Numerous outflow boundaries are
present across the area from yesterday`s convection. Short-term
models develop convection this afternoon across most of the area.
VCSH was inserted through 00z at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Given a
very dry sub-cloud layer, microbursts will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due
to low coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  90  74  98  71  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  95  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  95  72 100  74  93 /  10   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 291718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Guidance has come in a few degrees cooler with afternoon highs
today. Given numerous boundaries in the area, and with afternoon
clouds/isolated convection developing, we`ve lowered temperatures
a couple of degrees across the area. Mesoanalysis and point
soundings indicate a microburst environment is in place. Thus,
wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. Numerous outflow boundaries are
present across the area from yesterday`s convection. Short-term
models develop convection this afternoon across most of the area.
VCSH was inserted through 00z at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Given a
very dry sub-cloud layer, microbursts will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due
to low coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  90  74  98  71  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  95  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  95  72 100  74  93 /  10   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 291107
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due
to low coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  74  98  71  83 /  20  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  97  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  97  72 100  74  93 /  20   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 291107
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due
to low coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  74  98  71  83 /  20  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  97  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  97  72 100  74  93 /  20   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 290917
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  74  98  71  83 /  20  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  97  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  97  72 100  74  93 /  20   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290917
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  74  98  71  83 /  20  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  97  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  97  72 100  74  93 /  20   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 290401
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A weak front is located along the interstate 10 corridor. Winds are
forecast to remain generally east to northeast, and light, through
the overnight hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, but coverage if forecast to remain
isolated, so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package
at this time. VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A cold front/outflow boundary was approaching KSJT. This feature
will result in brief northeast winds of 12 to 16 knots, with some
higher gusts. Overnight, winds will generally be east to southeast
at less than 10 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, at mainly KABI, but coverage should
remain isolated enough to leave out any mention in the current TAF
package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath
it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should
redevelop tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the
weak cold front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City
to San Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 290401
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A weak front is located along the interstate 10 corridor. Winds are
forecast to remain generally east to northeast, and light, through
the overnight hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, but coverage if forecast to remain
isolated, so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package
at this time. VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A cold front/outflow boundary was approaching KSJT. This feature
will result in brief northeast winds of 12 to 16 knots, with some
higher gusts. Overnight, winds will generally be east to southeast
at less than 10 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, at mainly KABI, but coverage should
remain isolated enough to leave out any mention in the current TAF
package.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath
it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should
redevelop tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the
weak cold front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City
to San Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 282317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A cold front/outflow boundary was approaching KSJT. This feature
will result in brief northeast winds of 12 to 16 knots, with some
higher gusts. Overnight, winds will generally be east to southeast
at less than 10 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, at mainly KABI, but coverage should
remain isolated enough to leave out any mention in the current TAF
package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath
it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should
redevelop tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the
weak cold front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City
to San Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 282317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A cold front/outflow boundary was approaching KSJT. This feature
will result in brief northeast winds of 12 to 16 knots, with some
higher gusts. Overnight, winds will generally be east to southeast
at less than 10 knots. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon, at mainly KABI, but coverage should
remain isolated enough to leave out any mention in the current TAF
package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath
it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should
redevelop tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the
weak cold front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City
to San Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 282059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should redevelop
tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the weak cold
front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City to San
Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expectd from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 282059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
The atmosphere is ripe for microbursts this afternoon. Model
soundings show good adiabatic layer up to around 700mb, a decent
moist layer between 700 and 750mb with inverted V sounding beneath it.

Late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing
along an outflow boundary across Interstate 20. The boundary was
headed slowly south southwest. With an agitated cu field to work
with along Interstate 29, continued storm development is expected
this afternoon and early evening.

Looking at the NAM and SPC Mesoanalysis, most unstable CAPE
values were between 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. NAM shows the
CAPE increasing to 2500 j/kg by tomorrow afternoon. For the most
part, convective inhibition will be less than 60 j/kg during the
day, and increasing to 100 j/kg overnight. For this reason we
expect showers and thunderstorm to taper off as the evening
progresses and we lose daytime heating. Scattered storms should redevelop
tomorrow afternoon along old outflow boundaries and the weak cold
front mainly along and north of a line from Sterling City to San
Angelo to San Saba.

Otherwise, lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 70s
with afternoon highs tomorrow mainly in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...
Outflow boundaries in the area will continue a chance for showers
and thunderstorms through Tuesday night mainly along and north of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to San Saba. On Wednesday
the chance of rain should retreat to the Big Country.

Models continue to weaken the upper high by Wednesday and bring
in a stronger cold front on Thursday. Went with chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures
are expectd from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  92  74  97  71 /  30  20  20  10  30
San Angelo  74  97  73 100  72 /  20  10  20  10  20
Junction  73  97  72  99  74 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 281808
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
108 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Currently an outflow boundary was moving south towards the
Colorado River. Visible Satellite and radar data show isolated
showers developing near the boundary. Various model data continues
to show isolated convection developing across much of the area.
We`ve extended the slight chance of precipitation south to the
Interstate 10 corridor to account for these trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo  93  73  96  72 100 /  20  20  10  20  10
Junction  90  73  96  71 100 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 281808
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
108 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Currently an outflow boundary was moving south towards the
Colorado River. Visible Satellite and radar data show isolated
showers developing near the boundary. Various model data continues
to show isolated convection developing across much of the area.
We`ve extended the slight chance of precipitation south to the
Interstate 10 corridor to account for these trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo  93  73  96  72 100 /  20  20  10  20  10
Junction  90  73  96  71 100 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 281801 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll










000
FXUS64 KSJT 281801 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll











000
FXUS64 KSJT 281733
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 281733
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. At 17z, an outflow boundary
was located between KABI and KSJT. This boundary is expected to
stall just south of KSJT later this afternoon. Winds will shift
to the northwest to northeast following it`s passage, with a few
showers developing near the boundary. VCSH was inserted at KABI.
Farther south confidence remains low, thus, will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 281103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 281103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. As a cold front moves through the northern area today, an
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible along the front.
However, convective activity will not be included in the KABI TAF
due to the isolated nature of storm coverage. The remaining
terminals will remain south of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KSJT 280858
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a cold front is located from the northwestern
Panhandle to midway between Amarillo and Lubbock and then east
across southern Oklahoma. Convective activity is occurring along the
frontal boundary in the northwestern Panhandle area and along the
frontal boundary in southern Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is noted
moving into the northern Big Country. The cold front is expected to
sag south through the Big Country and into the northern Heartland
today before becoming stationary tonight. Will continue the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the cold
front with the best chance of precipitation in the northern Big
Country. Highs today will be similar to yesterday with upper 90s to
around the 100 degree mark south of interstate 20. Mid 90s are
expected over the Big Country due to increased cloud cover and some
cool air advection behind the frontal boundary. Morning lows
tomorrow will generally be in the lower 70s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The long-term portion of the forecast remains essentially
unchanged, with slight chance to chance PoPs through next weekend
across much of West Central Texas. Models continue a stalled cold
front over West Central Texas through mid week. Then, models
indicate another weak cold front will push into West Central Texas
on Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with this potential scenario. With a persistent upper ridge
continuing to the west, this solution at least looks possible. So,
continuing PoPs unchanged from the previous package looks
reasonable for the long-term periods. In addition, cooler
temperatures at 850 mb later this week points to potential
afternoon highs a category or two below seasonal normals,
especially for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  93  72  97 /  20  30  30  20  10
San Angelo 100  73  96  72 100 /  10  10  10  20  10
Junction  99  73  96  71 100 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 280403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Light winds will prevail through the overnight hours. A weak cold
front will approach KABI around 14z, resulting in northeast winds of
5 to 10 knots. An isolated shower or thunderstorms will be possible
along the front, but coverage should remain isolated enough to leave
out any mention in the TAF package. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
A weak cold front continues to advance south across western North
TX this evening, basically extending from Wichita Falls, to near
Paducah, to Tulia. South of this boundary, dewpoints are slowly
recovering into upper 50s and lower 60s, while mid 60s to lower
70s dewpoints are observed north of the front. Satellite imagery
does show a band of cumuliform clouds along the Red River into the
southern Panhandle and a few cells are observed on radar to the
north of Lubbock. Short range convection allowing models continue
to depict isolated showers and/or thunderstorms late tonight in
the vicinity of the boundary and that certainly cannot be ruled
out. A 10% chance of precipitation was left in the forecast for
areas north of an Albany to Hamlin line, mainly after midnight.
Other minor changes were made to hourly wind, sky, and temperature
fields.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, will become light shortly after
00z. A weak cold front will approach KABI around 14z, with winds
becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly during
the afternoon hours. For now, I have left any mention of thunder
out of the TAF, as confidence remains low on the exact timing and
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
An outflow boundary has settled south into areas north of
Interstate 20. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field developing across this area. Mesoanalysis shows
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with little inhibition remaining. As
the surface continues to heat, we can`t rule out a stray
thunderstorm or two developing. Thus, isolated POPs have been
introduced for this area. Cloud bases are around 9000 feet, with
dewpoint depressions near 40 degrees, leading to a good microburst
potential with any storm that develops. Any storms that develop
will quickly diminish after sunset. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary will sink slowly south through the day
tomorrow, stalling somewhere near the Colorado River. However,
the mid-level ridge located to our west will play more of a role
inhibiting thunderstorm development across the northern Concho
Valley. With this in mind, POPs were extended a little further
south, with thunderstorms possible north of a Robert Lee to San
Saba line. The increased cloud cover, and northerly winds north of
the boundary, will help keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s
tomorrow, mainly north of Interstate 20, with upper 90s farther
south.

LONG TERM...
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through next weekend
and chances for rain Monday evening through Saturday over parts
of West Central Texas. It is very difficult to pin point exact
location and amounts of precipitation this far out because of
placement of surface outflow boundaries. GFS was wetter than
ECMWF, GFS weakens upper high more than the EC. Went with a model
blend for this package.

The strong upper level high responsible for the hot temperatures
is forecast to weaken by Wednesday as an anomalous deep upper
low forms across the eastern half of the U.S. This pattern will
allow a weak cool front/outflow boundary to dive south into the
region Monday night.

Placed a chance for POPs Monday night through Tuesday night along
and north of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Look for
isolated pops south of that line. This weak front/outflow boundary
should retreat north on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night could potentially see a chance for
thunderstorms. With the northwest upper flow pattern returning,
may see a complex of thunderstorms form across eastern NM and the
Texas Panhandle track southeast towards West Central Texas. Then
as a stronger cold front approaches on Thursday, may see another
round of showers and thunderstorms. With upper northwest flow and
a frontal boundary in the area, the GFS progs more chances of rain
Friday through Saturday with below normal afternoon high
temperatures.

Again lots of uncertainty in this package so please stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  95  72  93  74 /  10  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  77 100  73  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  74  99  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 280253
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A weak cold front continues to advance south across western North
TX this evening, basically extending from Wichita Falls, to near
Paducah, to Tulia. South of this boundary, dewpoints are slowly
recovering into upper 50s and lower 60s, while mid 60s to lower
70s dewpoints are observed north of the front. Satellite imagery
does show a band of cumuliform clouds along the Red River into the
southern Panhandle and a few cells are observed on radar to the
north of Lubbock. Short range convection allowing models continue
to depict isolated showers and/or thunderstorms late tonight in
the vicinity of the boundary and that certainly cannot be ruled
out. A 10% chance of precipitation was left in the forecast for
areas north of an Albany to Hamlin line, mainly after midnight.
Other minor changes were made to hourly wind, sky, and temperature
fields.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, will become light shortly after
00z. A weak cold front will approach KABI around 14z, with winds
becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly during
the afternoon hours. For now, I have left any mention of thunder
out of the TAF, as confidence remains low on the exact timing and
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
An outflow boundary has settled south into areas north of
Interstate 20. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field developing across this area. Mesoanalysis shows
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with little inhibition remaining. As
the surface continues to heat, we can`t rule out a stray
thunderstorm or two developing. Thus, isolated POPs have been
introduced for this area. Cloud bases are around 9000 feet, with
dewpoint depressions near 40 degrees, leading to a good microburst
potential with any storm that develops. Any storms that develop
will quickly diminish after sunset. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary will sink slowly south through the day
tomorrow, stalling somewhere near the Colorado River. However,
the mid-level ridge located to our west will play more of a role
inhibiting thunderstorm development across the northern Concho
Valley. With this in mind, POPs were extended a little further
south, with thunderstorms possible north of a Robert Lee to San
Saba line. The increased cloud cover, and northerly winds north of
the boundary, will help keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s
tomorrow, mainly north of Interstate 20, with upper 90s farther
south.

LONG TERM...
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through next weekend
and chances for rain Monday evening through Saturday over parts
of West Central Texas. It is very difficult to pin point exact
location and amounts of precipitation this far out because of
placement of surface outflow boundaries. GFS was wetter than
ECMWF, GFS weakens upper high more than the EC. Went with a model
blend for this package.

The strong upper level high responsible for the hot temperatures
is forecast to weaken by Wednesday as an anomalous deep upper
low forms across the eastern half of the U.S. This pattern will
allow a weak cool front/outflow boundary to dive south into the
region Monday night.

Placed a chance for POPs Monday night through Tuesday night along
and north of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Look for
isolated pops south of that line. This weak front/outflow boundary
should retreat north on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night could potentially see a chance for
thunderstorms. With the northwest upper flow pattern returning,
may see a complex of thunderstorms form across eastern NM and the
Texas Panhandle track southeast towards West Central Texas. Then
as a stronger cold front approaches on Thursday, may see another
round of showers and thunderstorms. With upper northwest flow and
a frontal boundary in the area, the GFS progs more chances of rain
Friday through Saturday with below normal afternoon high
temperatures.

Again lots of uncertainty in this package so please stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  95  72  93  74 /  10  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  77 100  73  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  74  99  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25









000
FXUS64 KSJT 280253
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A weak cold front continues to advance south across western North
TX this evening, basically extending from Wichita Falls, to near
Paducah, to Tulia. South of this boundary, dewpoints are slowly
recovering into upper 50s and lower 60s, while mid 60s to lower
70s dewpoints are observed north of the front. Satellite imagery
does show a band of cumuliform clouds along the Red River into the
southern Panhandle and a few cells are observed on radar to the
north of Lubbock. Short range convection allowing models continue
to depict isolated showers and/or thunderstorms late tonight in
the vicinity of the boundary and that certainly cannot be ruled
out. A 10% chance of precipitation was left in the forecast for
areas north of an Albany to Hamlin line, mainly after midnight.
Other minor changes were made to hourly wind, sky, and temperature
fields.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, will become light shortly after
00z. A weak cold front will approach KABI around 14z, with winds
becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly during
the afternoon hours. For now, I have left any mention of thunder
out of the TAF, as confidence remains low on the exact timing and
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
An outflow boundary has settled south into areas north of
Interstate 20. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field developing across this area. Mesoanalysis shows
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with little inhibition remaining. As
the surface continues to heat, we can`t rule out a stray
thunderstorm or two developing. Thus, isolated POPs have been
introduced for this area. Cloud bases are around 9000 feet, with
dewpoint depressions near 40 degrees, leading to a good microburst
potential with any storm that develops. Any storms that develop
will quickly diminish after sunset. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary will sink slowly south through the day
tomorrow, stalling somewhere near the Colorado River. However,
the mid-level ridge located to our west will play more of a role
inhibiting thunderstorm development across the northern Concho
Valley. With this in mind, POPs were extended a little further
south, with thunderstorms possible north of a Robert Lee to San
Saba line. The increased cloud cover, and northerly winds north of
the boundary, will help keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s
tomorrow, mainly north of Interstate 20, with upper 90s farther
south.

LONG TERM...
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through next weekend
and chances for rain Monday evening through Saturday over parts
of West Central Texas. It is very difficult to pin point exact
location and amounts of precipitation this far out because of
placement of surface outflow boundaries. GFS was wetter than
ECMWF, GFS weakens upper high more than the EC. Went with a model
blend for this package.

The strong upper level high responsible for the hot temperatures
is forecast to weaken by Wednesday as an anomalous deep upper
low forms across the eastern half of the U.S. This pattern will
allow a weak cool front/outflow boundary to dive south into the
region Monday night.

Placed a chance for POPs Monday night through Tuesday night along
and north of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Look for
isolated pops south of that line. This weak front/outflow boundary
should retreat north on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night could potentially see a chance for
thunderstorms. With the northwest upper flow pattern returning,
may see a complex of thunderstorms form across eastern NM and the
Texas Panhandle track southeast towards West Central Texas. Then
as a stronger cold front approaches on Thursday, may see another
round of showers and thunderstorms. With upper northwest flow and
a frontal boundary in the area, the GFS progs more chances of rain
Friday through Saturday with below normal afternoon high
temperatures.

Again lots of uncertainty in this package so please stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  95  72  93  74 /  10  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  77 100  73  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  74  99  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 272300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, will become light shortly after
00z. A weak cold front will approach KABI around 14z, with winds
becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly during
the afternoon hours. For now, I have left any mention of thunder out
of the TAF, as confidence remains low on the exact timing and
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
An outflow boundary has settled south into areas north of Interstate
20. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field
developing across this area. Mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with little inhibition remaining. As the surface continues
to heat, we can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm or two developing.
Thus, isolated POPs have been introduced for this area. Cloud bases
are around 9000 feet, with dewpoint depressions near 40 degrees,
leading to a good microburst potential with any storm that develops.
Any storms that develop will quickly diminish after sunset. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary will sink slowly south through the day
tomorrow, stalling somewhere near the Colorado River. However, the
mid-level ridge located to our west will play more of a role
inhibiting thunderstorm development across the northern Concho
Valley. With this in mind, POPs were extended a little further
south, with thunderstorms possible north of a Robert Lee to San Saba
line. The increased cloud cover, and northerly winds north of the
boundary, will help keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s tomorrow,
mainly north of Interstate 20, with upper 90s farther south.

LONG TERM...
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through next weekend
and chances for rain Monday evening through Saturday over parts of
West Central Texas. It is very difficult to pin point exact location
and amounts of precipitation this far out because of placement of
surface outflow boundaries. GFS was wetter than ECMWF, GFS weakens
upper high more than the EC. Went with a model blend for this
package.

The strong upper level high responsible for the hot temperatures is
forecast to weaken by Wednesday as an anomalous deep upper low forms
across the eastern half of the U.S.  This pattern will allow a weak
cool front/outflow boundary to dive south into the region Monday
night.

Placed a chance for POPs Monday night through Tuesday night along
and north of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Look for
isolated pops south of that line. This weak front/outflow boundary
should retreat north on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night could potentially see a chance for thunderstorms.
With the northwest upper flow pattern returning, may see a complex
of thunderstorms form across eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle
track southeast towards West Central Texas. Then as a stronger cold
front approaches on Thursday, may see another round of showers and
thunderstorms. With upper northwest flow and a frontal boundary in
the area, the GFS progs more chances of rain Friday through Saturday
with below normal afternoon high temperatures.

Again lots of uncertainty in this package so please stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  95  72  93  74 /   5  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  77 100  73  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  74  99  73  96  73 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 272300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, will become light shortly after
00z. A weak cold front will approach KABI around 14z, with winds
becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly during
the afternoon hours. For now, I have left any mention of thunder out
of the TAF, as confidence remains low on the exact timing and
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
An outflow boundary has settled south into areas north of Interstate
20. Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field
developing across this area. Mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with little inhibition remaining. As the surface continues
to heat, we can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm or two developing.
Thus, isolated POPs have been introduced for this area. Cloud bases
are around 9000 feet, with dewpoint depressions near 40 degrees,
leading to a good microburst potential with any storm that develops.
Any storms that develop will quickly diminish after sunset. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned boundary will sink slowly south through the day
tomorrow, stalling somewhere near the Colorado River. However, the
mid-level ridge located to our west will play more of a role
inhibiting thunderstorm development across the northern Concho
Valley. With this in mind, POPs were extended a little further
south, with thunderstorms possible north of a Robert Lee to San Saba
line. The increased cloud cover, and northerly winds north of the
boundary, will help keep afternoon highs in the mid 90s tomorrow,
mainly north of Interstate 20, with upper 90s farther south.

LONG TERM...
Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through next weekend
and chances for rain Monday evening through Saturday over parts of
West Central Texas. It is very difficult to pin point exact location
and amounts of precipitation this far out because of placement of
surface outflow boundaries. GFS was wetter than ECMWF, GFS weakens
upper high more than the EC. Went with a model blend for this
package.

The strong upper level high responsible for the hot temperatures is
forecast to weaken by Wednesday as an anomalous deep upper low forms
across the eastern half of the U.S.  This pattern will allow a weak
cool front/outflow boundary to dive south into the region Monday
night.

Placed a chance for POPs Monday night through Tuesday night along
and north of a line from Sterling City to Brownwood. Look for
isolated pops south of that line. This weak front/outflow boundary
should retreat north on Wednesday.

By Wednesday night could potentially see a chance for thunderstorms.
With the northwest upper flow pattern returning, may see a complex
of thunderstorms form across eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle
track southeast towards West Central Texas. Then as a stronger cold
front approaches on Thursday, may see another round of showers and
thunderstorms. With upper northwest flow and a frontal boundary in
the area, the GFS progs more chances of rain Friday through Saturday
with below normal afternoon high temperatures.

Again lots of uncertainty in this package so please stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  95  72  93  74 /   5  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  77 100  73  96  74 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  74  99  73  96  73 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







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