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000
FXUS64 KSJT 020847
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
347 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across much of
West Central Texas as isentropic ascent continues and a weak upper
level shortwave trough swings across the region. Expect this
activity to continue through the morning, slowly shifting south and
east of the area. Most locations will be dry by this afternoon,
although a few lingering showers will be possible, mainly across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Cloud cover will slowly decrease from north
to south today, although the southern half of the area should see
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies through much of the day. The cloud
cover combined with continued weak cold air advection will result in
high temperatures well below seasonal normals. Highs will generally
be in the upper 60s.

Good radiational cooling conditions are expected overnight as skies
become mostly clear and winds become light and variable. Overnight
low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

Zonal flow will prevail with the passage of the weak shortwave
trough for Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Another weak frontal
boundary will sag into the northern Big Country Tuesday Night, and
there may be enough lift and moisture still in place for a few
showers or storms. Have added slight chance POP`s to the forecast
for areas north of Abilene and Sweetwater.

Upper level ridge axis builds into the area for the rest of the
work week, bringing dry and warmer conditions. After highs in the
70s on Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will rebound into the 80s
for the rest of the week.

Deep upper level low will drop into the Western US for the weekend
and early next week. The GFS is more progressive with the trough
than the ECMWF, although both develop convection across West
Central Texas at different points Saturday afternoon into Monday.
Will continue to mention a chance of showers and storms, and will
refine the forecast as the models converge on a solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  46  74  53 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  68  46  78  51 /  20   5   5   5
Junction  66  47  77  49 /  40   5   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 020422
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas through most
of this TAF forecast package. The ceilings will remain mainly low
end VFR(OVC035-045). Scattered showers will continue through
Monday morning and have VCSH at the terminals. The winds will be
from the north with gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas during the
next 24 hours. The ceilings will remain mainly low end
VFR(OVC035). Scattered showers will continue through Monday and
have VCSH at most terminals, however keeping KABI with a mainly
dry forecast. The winds will be from the north to northeast with
a few gusts around 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing
along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this
afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of
the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in
from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low
flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly
flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a
chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire
area. The best chances remain generally south of a Barnhart to
Menard line overnight where better surface convergence and upslope
flow is located.

For Monday, have generally lowered PoPs as much of the precipitation
is expected to be moving southeast out of the area by mid-Monday
morning, but we may have some lingering showers as far north as a
Mertzon to Abilene line. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are
also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the
amount of heating that the sun could provide.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Surface high pressure will build directly over West Central Texas
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will promote good
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies, lighter winds,
and a dry atmosphere. Lows Tuesday morning should fall into the
mid 40s.

For Tuesday night, the GFS and EC bring a strong upper shortwave
southeast through Oklahoma. Convective algorithms indicate potential
for an MCS in northwest flow aloft, which could affect northern
sections of the Big Country Tuesday evening...mainly Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Discounting potential at this time, as the
area will be just returning to southeast flow at the surface.
However, later shifts may need to reevaluate.

On Wednesday, there is shift to southwest to westerly winds as
surface high pressure moves into South Texas. This should allow
warming into the lower 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, as a large
upper low moves into the 4 corners region. Low level moisture
returns Saturday with slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the better chance will be Sunday afternoon (as
the upper low approaches) and Sunday night (as a surface trough
moves through).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  66  46  75 /  50  20   5   5
San Angelo  50  68  46  77 /  50  20   5   5
Junction  53  67  47  77 /  50  30   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012326
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas during the
next 24 hours. The ceilings will remain mainly low end
VFR(OVC035). Scattered showers will continue through Monday and
have VCSH at most terminals, however keeping KABI with a mainly
dry forecast. The winds will be from the north to northeast with
a few gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing
along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this
afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of
the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in
from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low
flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly
flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a
chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire
area. The best chances remain generally south of a Barnhart to
Menard line overnight where better surface convergence and upslope
flow is located.

For Monday, have generally lowered PoPs as much of the precipitation
is expected to be moving southeast out of the area by mid-Monday
morning, but we may have some lingering showers as far north as a
Mertzon to Abilene line. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are
also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the
amount of heating that the sun could provide.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Surface high pressure will build directly over West Central Texas
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will promote good
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies, lighter winds,
and a dry atmosphere. Lows Tuesday morning should fall into the
mid 40s.

For Tuesday night, the GFS and EC bring a strong upper shortwave
southeast through Oklahoma. Convective algorithms indicate potential
for an MCS in northwest flow aloft, which could affect northern
sections of the Big Country Tuesday evening...mainly Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Discounting potential at this time, as the
area will be just returning to southeast flow at the surface.
However, later shifts may need to reevaluate.

On Wednesday, there is shift to southwest to westerly winds as
surface high pressure moves into South Texas. This should allow
warming into the lower 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, as a large
upper low moves into the 4 corners region. Low level moisture
returns Saturday with slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the better chance will be Sunday afternoon (as
the upper low approaches) and Sunday night (as a surface trough
moves through).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  66  46  75 /  50  20   5   5
San Angelo  50  68  46  77 /  50  20   5   5
Junction  53  67  47  77 /  50  30   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012043
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing
along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this
afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of
the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in
from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low
flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly
flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a
chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire
area. The best chances remain generally south of a Barnhart to
Menard line overnight where better surface convergence and upslope
flow is located.

For Monday, have generally lowered PoPs as much of the precipitation
is expected to be moving southeast out of the area by mid-Monday
morning, but we may have some lingering showers as far north as a
Mertzon to Abilene line. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are
also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the
amount of heating that the sun could provide.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Surface high pressure will build directly over West Central Texas
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will promote good
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies, lighter winds,
and a dry atmosphere. Lows Tuesday morning should fall into the
mid 40s.

For Tuesday night, the GFS and EC bring a strong upper shortwave
southeast through Oklahoma. Convective algorithms indicate potential
for an MCS in northwest flow aloft, which could affect northern
sections of the Big Country Tuesday evening...mainly Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Discounting potential at this time, as the
area will be just returning to southeast flow at the surface.
However, later shifts may need to reevaluate.

On Wednesday, there is shift to southwest to westerly winds as
surface high pressure moves into South Texas. This should allow
warming into the lower 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, as a large
upper low moves into the 4 corners region. Low level moisture
returns Saturday with slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the better chance will be Sunday afternoon (as
the upper low approaches) and Sunday night (as a surface trough
moves through).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  66  46  75 /  50  20   5   5
San Angelo  50  68  46  77 /  50  20   5   5
Junction  53  67  47  77 /  50  30   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

20/04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012043
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing
along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this
afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of
the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in
from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low
flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly
flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a
chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire
area. The best chances remain generally south of a Barnhart to
Menard line overnight where better surface convergence and upslope
flow is located.

For Monday, have generally lowered PoPs as much of the precipitation
is expected to be moving southeast out of the area by mid-Monday
morning, but we may have some lingering showers as far north as a
Mertzon to Abilene line. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are
also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the
amount of heating that the sun could provide.


.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Surface high pressure will build directly over West Central Texas
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will promote good
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies, lighter winds,
and a dry atmosphere. Lows Tuesday morning should fall into the
mid 40s.

For Tuesday night, the GFS and EC bring a strong upper shortwave
southeast through Oklahoma. Convective algorithms indicate potential
for an MCS in northwest flow aloft, which could affect northern
sections of the Big Country Tuesday evening...mainly Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Discounting potential at this time, as the
area will be just returning to southeast flow at the surface.
However, later shifts may need to reevaluate.

On Wednesday, there is shift to southwest to westerly winds as
surface high pressure moves into South Texas. This should allow
warming into the lower 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, as a large
upper low moves into the 4 corners region. Low level moisture
returns Saturday with slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the better chance will be Sunday afternoon (as
the upper low approaches) and Sunday night (as a surface trough
moves through).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  66  46  75 /  50  20   5   5
San Angelo  50  68  46  77 /  50  20   5   5
Junction  53  67  47  77 /  50  30   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

20/04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Generally VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. CIGs
are currently running from just under 3000 feet to around 4000
feet. Expect them to hover around the 4k foot mark through
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible tonight,
mainly after 00Z, with the best chance for showers affecting the
KSOA site. Winds will remain northeast and gusty through tonight.
20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Edwards Plateau and
Interstate 10 corridor and is forecast to continue to increase
early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at KSOA, KBBD, and
KSOA, with less confidence at KSJT and KABI. Cloud cover should
continue through the day, although ceilings are forecast to lift
to VFR category by early to mid afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon, but better coverage is expected
overnight, along with isolated thunderstorms. Expect northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shortwave through is forecast to move across the
Southern Plains late today into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, isentropic ascent will increase across the region,
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon is across the western half of the forecast area, with
a better chance across much of West Central Texas overnight. The
highest PoPs overnight will be across Crockett County/Interstate 10
corridor, with PoPs decreasing as you head north into the Big
Country. Although an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible in our southern counties, most of this activity is forecast
to remain south of the forecast area.

The abundant cloud cover and brisk northeast winds today will help
to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Shortwave will continue to move across West Central Texas on
Monday, with showers and a few storms continuing for at least the
morning hours. Abundant cloud cover and northerly surface winds
will make for a cool day. Highs only in the 60s for most
locations.

System pushes out of the area, with an upper level ridge building
into the area for the middle and end of the week. Dry and warmer
with highs climbing into the 80s by Wednesday. Models still
showing another deep upper level low over the Western US for next
weekend, with a dryline setting up across West Texas. Will
include a mention of showers and storms for the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  49  66  45 /  20  50  30   5
San Angelo  70  51  69  46 /  30  60  50   5
Junction  76  56  69  48 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Edwards Plateau and
Interstate 10 corridor and is forecast to continue to increase
early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at KSOA, KBBD, and
KSOA, with less confidence at KSJT and KABI. Cloud cover should
continue through the day, although ceilings are forecast to lift
to VFR category by early to mid afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon, but better coverage is expected
overnight, along with isolated thunderstorms. Expect northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shortwave through is forecast to move across the
Southern Plains late today into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, isentropic ascent will increase across the region,
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon is across the western half of the forecast area, with
a better chance across much of West Central Texas overnight. The
highest PoPs overnight will be across Crockett County/Interstate 10
corridor, with PoPs decreasing as you head north into the Big
Country. Although an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible in our southern counties, most of this activity is forecast
to remain south of the forecast area.

The abundant cloud cover and brisk northeast winds today will help
to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Shortwave will continue to move across West Central Texas on
Monday, with showers and a few storms continuing for at least the
morning hours. Abundant cloud cover and northerly surface winds
will make for a cool day. Highs only in the 60s for most
locations.

System pushes out of the area, with an upper level ridge building
into the area for the middle and end of the week. Dry and warmer
with highs climbing into the 80s by Wednesday. Models still
showing another deep upper level low over the Western US for next
weekend, with a dryline setting up across West Texas. Will
include a mention of showers and storms for the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  49  66  45 /  20  50  30   5
San Angelo  70  51  69  46 /  30  60  50   5
Junction  76  56  69  48 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Edwards Plateau and
Interstate 10 corridor and is forecast to continue to increase
early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at KSOA, KBBD, and
KSOA, with less confidence at KSJT and KABI. Cloud cover should
continue through the day, although ceilings are forecast to lift
to VFR category by early to mid afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon, but better coverage is expected
overnight, along with isolated thunderstorms. Expect northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shortwave through is forecast to move across the
Southern Plains late today into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, isentropic ascent will increase across the region,
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon is across the western half of the forecast area, with
a better chance across much of West Central Texas overnight. The
highest PoPs overnight will be across Crockett County/Interstate 10
corridor, with PoPs decreasing as you head north into the Big
Country. Although an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible in our southern counties, most of this activity is forecast
to remain south of the forecast area.

The abundant cloud cover and brisk northeast winds today will help
to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Shortwave will continue to move across West Central Texas on
Monday, with showers and a few storms continuing for at least the
morning hours. Abundant cloud cover and northerly surface winds
will make for a cool day. Highs only in the 60s for most
locations.

System pushes out of the area, with an upper level ridge building
into the area for the middle and end of the week. Dry and warmer
with highs climbing into the 80s by Wednesday. Models still
showing another deep upper level low over the Western US for next
weekend, with a dryline setting up across West Texas. Will
include a mention of showers and storms for the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  49  66  45 /  20  50  30   5
San Angelo  70  51  69  46 /  30  60  50   5
Junction  76  56  69  48 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010856
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
356 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shortwave through is forecast to move across the
Southern Plains late today into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, isentropic ascent will increase across the region,
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon is across the western half of the forecast area, with
a better chance across much of West Central Texas overnight. The
highest PoPs overnight will be across Crockett County/Interstate 10
corridor, with PoPs decreasing as you head north into the Big
Country. Although an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible in our southern counties, most of this activity is forecast
to remain south of the forecast area.

The abundant cloud cover and brisk northeast winds today will help
to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Shortwave will continue to move across West Central Texas on
Monday, with showers and a few storms continuing for at least the
morning hours. Abundant cloud cover and northerly surface winds
will make for a cool day. Highs only in the 60s for most
locations.

System pushes out of the area, with an upper level ridge building
into the area for the middle and end of the week. Dry and warmer
with highs climbing into the 80s by Wednesday. Models still
showing another deep upper level low over the Western US for next
weekend, with a dryline setting up across West Texas. Will
include a mention of showers and storms for the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  49  66  45 /  20  50  30   5
San Angelo  70  51  69  46 /  30  60  50   5
Junction  76  56  69  48 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010426
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1126 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions for a few more hours during the early morning.
However, stratus will develop across much of West Central Texas
Sunday morning due to moisture advection over a shallow cool
airmass. Going with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals between
10Z and 20Z. Keeping the KABI terminal VFR for now. The ceilings
will rise to low end VFR(BKN035) by late Sunday afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will develop Sunday evening across the
area, and going VCTS at KSOA and VCSH at the remaining terminals
after 00Z. The winds will be mainly east to northeast with a few
gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions this evening into the early morning hours of
Sunday. However, stratus will develop across much of West Central
Texas Sunday morning due to moisture advection over a shallow
cool airmass. Going with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals
between 10Z and 20Z Sunday. Keeping the KABI terminal VFR for now.
The ceilings will rise to low end VFR(BKN035) by late Sunday
afternoon. The winds will be mainly east to northeast with a few
gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet weather expected tonight with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow generally west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Sonora line. An upper level shortwave centered near the southern
tip of NV currently, will swing east tonight and shear out into a
wave as it moves east toward the southern plains Sunday. At the
surface, while pressure falls result in far west Texas from the
passing trough, high pressure will continue to build south into the
southern Plains, pushing a cold front through our area and into the
mountains of west Texas.

For tonight, light and variable or east winds this afternoon will
become northeast overnight and increase to around 10 knots as a
shallow cool air mass continues to sink southward through the area.
Moist, southeasterly flow over the cool air mass should result in
low clouds over the southern half of the CWA, if not more, by
tomorrow morning. As the upper level shortwave approaches, surface
flow will increase out of the northeast/east due to pressure rises
to our north and relative pressure falls in western Texas,
increasing upslope lift, and surface convergence west of our CWA
into our southwestern counties. This, along lift from the
approaching shortwave will result in the chance for showers and
thunderstorms along our western border with the best chances in
Crockett, Sterling, and Irion counties.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Isentropic lift over a cold air mass, combined with weak upper
disturbances associated with an upper low moving east across the
Central Plains, will bring a continued chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible early Sunday evening, mainly along the
I-10 corridor where GFS SB CAPES of 1000 to 1400 J/KG reside. The
main threat is an isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail.

Isentropic lift ends early Monday morning, with shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming isolated by Noon. It will be cool
Monday with cloudy skies and surface high pressure over the
region. Highs are expected in the mid and upper 60s. Clearing
skies and light winds Monday night will bring good radiational
cooling conditions, with lows expected in the upper 40s.

A warming trend will continue through the rest of the work week,
as surface high pressure moves into South Texas, blocking
moisture return from the Gulf, and allowing dry air from the
southwest to move in. Low level moisture return does return by
Saturday, however, as a strong upper low develops in the 4 corners
region. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  68  51  66 /   0  10  50  40
San Angelo  56  71  53  66 /   0  20  60  50
Junction  60  77  57  66 /   5  10  60  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 302330
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions this evening into the early morning hours of
Sunday. However, stratus will develop across much of West Central
Texas Sunday morning due to moisture advection over a shallow
cool airmass. Going with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals
between 10Z and 20Z Sunday. Keeping the KABI terminal VFR for now.
The ceilings will rise to low end VFR(BKN035) by late Sunday
afternoon. The winds will be mainly east to northeast with a few
gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet weather expected tonight with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow generally west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Sonora line. An upper level shortwave centered near the southern
tip of NV currently, will swing east tonight and shear out into a
wave as it moves east toward the southern plains Sunday. At the
surface, while pressure falls result in far west Texas from the
passing trough, high pressure will continue to build south into the
southern Plains, pushing a cold front through our area and into the
mountains of west Texas.

For tonight, light and variable or east winds this afternoon will
become northeast overnight and increase to around 10 knots as a
shallow cool air mass continues to sink southward through the area.
Moist, southeasterly flow over the cool air mass should result in
low clouds over the southern half of the CWA, if not more, by
tomorrow morning. As the upper level shortwave approaches, surface
flow will increase out of the northeast/east due to pressure rises
to our north and relative pressure falls in western Texas,
increasing upslope lift, and surface convergence west of our CWA
into our southwestern counties. This, along lift from the
approaching shortwave will result in the chance for showers and
thunderstorms along our western border with the best chances in
Crockett, Sterling, and Irion counties.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Isentropic lift over a cold air mass, combined with weak upper
disturbances associated with an upper low moving east across the
Central Plains, will bring a continued chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible early Sunday evening, mainly along the
I-10 corridor where GFS SB CAPES of 1000 to 1400 J/KG reside. The
main threat is an isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail.

Isentropic lift ends early Monday morning, with shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming isolated by Noon. It will be cool
Monday with cloudy skies and surface high pressure over the
region. Highs are expected in the mid and upper 60s. Clearing
skies and light winds Monday night will bring good radiational
cooling conditions, with lows expected in the upper 40s.

A warming trend will continue through the rest of the work week,
as surface high pressure moves into South Texas, blocking
moisture return from the Gulf, and allowing dry air from the
southwest to move in. Low level moisture return does return by
Saturday, however, as a strong upper low develops in the 4 corners
region. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  68  51  66 /   0  10  50  40
San Angelo  56  71  53  66 /   0  20  60  50
Junction  60  77  57  66 /   5  10  60  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 302033
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet weather expected tonight with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow generally west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Sonora line. An upper level shortwave centered near the southern
tip of NV currently, will swing east tonight and shear out into a
wave as it moves east toward the southern plains Sunday. At the
surface, while pressure falls result in far west Texas from the
passing trough, high pressure will continue to build south into the
southern Plains, pushing a cold front through our area and into the
mountains of west Texas.

For tonight, light and variable or east winds this afternoon will
become northeast overnight and increase to around 10 knots as a
shallow cool air mass continues to sink southward through the area.
Moist, southeasterly flow over the cool air mass should result in
low clouds over the southern half of the CWA, if not more, by
tomorrow morning. As the upper level shortwave approaches, surface
flow will increase out of the northeast/east due to pressure rises
to our north and relative pressure falls in western Texas,
increasing upslope lift, and surface convergence west of our CWA
into our southwestern counties. This, along lift from the
approaching shortwave will result in the chance for showers and
thunderstorms along our western border with the best chances in
Crockett, Sterling, and Irion counties.


.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Isentropic lift over a cold air mass, combined with weak upper
disturbances associated with an upper low moving east across the
Central Plains, will bring a continued chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible early Sunday evening, mainly along the
I-10 corridor where GFS SB CAPES of 1000 to 1400 J/KG reside. The
main threat is an isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail.

Isentropic lift ends early Monday morning, with shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming isolated by Noon. It will be cool
Monday with cloudy skies and surface high pressure over the
region. Highs are expected in the mid and upper 60s. Clearing
skies and light winds Monday night will bring good radiational
cooling conditions, with lows expected in the upper 40s.

A warming trend will continue through the rest of the work week,
as surface high pressure moves into South Texas, blocking
moisture return from the Gulf, and allowing dry air from the
southwest to move in. Low level moisture return does return by
Saturday, however, as a strong upper low develops in the 4 corners
region. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  68  51  66 /   0  10  50  40
San Angelo  56  71  53  66 /   0  20  60  50
Junction  60  77  57  66 /   5  10  60  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

20/04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 301729
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions through the next 15 to 18 hours, with an
expected return to MVFR CIGs by early Sunday morning.

A cold front has moved into the area today, turning winds to
light northerly or light and variable. Winds will eventually turn
to east/southeasterly this evening, then northeast overnight. Due
to the shallow cold air mass, moist southerly flow is expected to
ride up and over the top resulting in low cloud development
between 10Z/5AM and 12Z/7AM Sunday morning from south to north.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered mid level clouds will continue to slowly weaken across
West Central Texas this morning, leaving VFR conditions for area
terminals. A weak cold front moving through the area will shift
winds around to the east and northeast, but will remain at 10
knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet in the short term, with dry conditions expected through Sunday
morning. A cold front sliding through West Central Texas will allow
for a cooler air mass to settle into at least about the northeast
half of the area. Despite the boundary in the area, low level
moisture will remain limited, with dewpoints only in the 40s and
lower 50s even across the eastern portions of the area. Will
continue the dry forecast already in place. Forecast highs will stay
in the 70s across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene north
of the frontal boundary, with the warmest conditions across Crockett
County in the southwest.

Moisture will not make a significant return until the day on Sunday,
so lows tonight will be cool. Lows in the lower 50s north to lower
60s south.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

On Sunday, northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph along with increasing
cloud cover should result in below normal temperatures, with high
mainly in the 70s across West Central Texas. An upper level
shortwave trough will approach the Desert Southwest Sunday, then
move across the Southern Plains Monday. With the approach of this
system, large scale lift will move into the region, resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across our western counties Sunday afternoon,
the spread across much of the area Sunday night into Monday. The
best rain chances will shift south and east of the area Monday
night. The expected cloud cover/precipitation should result in cool
temperatures on Monday, with highs mainly in the 60s. At this time,
the severe weather threat looks minimal, although an isolated strong
to possibly severe thunderstorm is possible.

Drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the end of the
work week, as upper level ridging develops across West Central
Texas. A slow warm up will ensue with highs on Tuesday into the 70s
and high temperatures on Thursday in the 80s for all of the area.
The next upper level shortwave trough will approach the region
next weekend, possibly bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  52  71  51 /   5   5  10  50
San Angelo  85  55  74  54 /   5  10  20  50
Junction  86  61  79  59 /   5  10  20  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 301129
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered mid level clouds will continue to slowly weaken across
West Central Texas this morning, leaving VFR conditions for area
terminals. A weak cold front moving through the area will shift
winds around to the east and northeast, but will remain at 10
knots or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet in the short term, with dry conditions expected through Sunday
morning. A cold front sliding through West Central Texas will allow
for a cooler air mass to settle into at least about the northeast
half of the area. Despite the boundary in the area, low level
moisture will remain limited, with dewpoints only in the 40s and
lower 50s even across the eastern portions of the area. Will
continue the dry forecast already in place. Forecast highs will stay
in the 70s across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene north
of the frontal boundary, with the warmest conditions across Crockett
County in the southwest.

Moisture will not make a significant return until the day on Sunday,
so lows tonight will be cool. Lows in the lower 50s north to lower
60s south.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

On Sunday, northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph along with increasing
cloud cover should result in below normal temperatures, with high
mainly in the 70s across West Central Texas. An upper level
shortwave trough will approach the Desert Southwest Sunday, then
move across the Southern Plains Monday. With the approach of this
system, large scale lift will move into the region, resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across our western counties Sunday afternoon,
the spread across much of the area Sunday night into Monday. The
best rain chances will shift south and east of the area Monday
night. The expected cloud cover/precipitation should result in cool
temperatures on Monday, with highs mainly in the 60s. At this time,
the severe weather threat looks minimal, although an isolated strong
to possibly severe thunderstorm is possible.

Drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the end of the
work week, as upper level ridging develops across West Central
Texas. A slow warm up will ensue with highs on Tuesday into the 70s
and high temperatures on Thursday in the 80s for all of the area.
The next upper level shortwave trough will approach the region
next weekend, possibly bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  52  71  51 /   5   5  10  50
San Angelo  85  55  74  54 /   5  10  20  50
Junction  86  61  79  59 /   5  10  20  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300835
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet in the short term, with dry conditions expected through Sunday
morning. A cold front sliding through West Central Texas will allow
for a cooler air mass to settle into at least about the northeast
half of the area. Despite the boundary in the area, low level
moisture will remain limited, with dewpoints only in the 40s and
lower 50s even across the eastern portions of the area. Will
continue the dry forecast already in place. Forecast highs will stay
in the 70s across the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene north
of the frontal boundary, with the warmest conditions across Crockett
County in the southwest.

Moisture will not make a significant return until the day on Sunday,
so lows tonight will be cool. Lows in the lower 50s north to lower
60s south.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

On Sunday, northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph along with increasing
cloud cover should result in below normal temperatures, with high
mainly in the 70s across West Central Texas. An upper level
shortwave trough will approach the Desert Southwest Sunday, then
move across the Southern Plains Monday. With the approach of this
system, large scale lift will move into the region, resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across our western counties Sunday afternoon,
the spread across much of the area Sunday night into Monday. The
best rain chances will shift south and east of the area Monday
night. The expected cloud cover/precipitation should result in cool
temperatures on Monday, with highs mainly in the 60s. At this time,
the severe weather threat looks minimal, although an isolated strong
to possibly severe thunderstorm is possible.

Drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the end of the
work week, as upper level ridging develops across West Central
Texas. A slow warm up will ensue with highs on Tuesday into the 70s
and high temperatures on Thursday in the 80s for all of the area.
The next upper level shortwave trough will approach the region
next weekend, possibly bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  52  71  51 /   5   5  10  50
San Angelo  85  55  74  54 /   5  10  20  50
Junction  87  61  79  59 /   5  10  20  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300441
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 952 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated zones and grids to remove Pops for tonight. Otherwise,
current forecast looks good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300441
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 952 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated zones and grids to remove Pops for tonight. Otherwise,
current forecast looks good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300252
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
952 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated zones and grids to remove Pops for tonight. Otherwise,
current forecast looks good.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300000
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 300000
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 292053
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Skies are clearing from the west early this afternoon as a dryline
and Pacific cold front push east through the area. Winds will
turn from south to west/southwest and become gusty. Expect
clearing skies through the afternoon with VFR conditions from
early afternoon through the overnight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  86  55  75 /  10   5   5  10
Junction  55  88  58  81 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Skies are clearing from the west early this afternoon as a dryline
and Pacific cold front push east through the area. Winds will
turn from south to west/southwest and become gusty. Expect
clearing skies through the afternoon with VFR conditions from
early afternoon through the overnight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  86  55  75 /  10   5   5  10
Junction  55  88  58  81 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291233
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  53  79  53 /  30  10   5   5
San Angelo  87  53  86  56 /  30  10   5   5
Junction  85  55  88  58 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





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