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000
FXUS64 KSJT 071737
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and storms will continue to be widespread across the
central and northern sections of the area through the period,
including both the San Angelo (KSJT) and Abilene (KABI) terminals.
Activity will be much more scattered across the southern
locations. Where the storms occur, will easily drop down to MVFR
if not IFR conditions as heavy rain drops visibilities. Showers
and storms should begin to push off to the northeast away from the
area on Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  69  89  72  91 /  70  80  40  10   5
San Angelo  88  70  91  72  91 /  70  80  20   5   5
Junction  88  72  90  72  91 /  30  30  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 071737
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and storms will continue to be widespread across the
central and northern sections of the area through the period,
including both the San Angelo (KSJT) and Abilene (KABI) terminals.
Activity will be much more scattered across the southern
locations. Where the storms occur, will easily drop down to MVFR
if not IFR conditions as heavy rain drops visibilities. Showers
and storms should begin to push off to the northeast away from the
area on Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  69  89  72  91 /  70  80  40  10   5
San Angelo  88  70  91  72  91 /  70  80  20   5   5
Junction  88  72  90  72  91 /  30  30  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 071737
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Showers and storms will continue to be widespread across the
central and northern sections of the area through the period,
including both the San Angelo (KSJT) and Abilene (KABI) terminals.
Activity will be much more scattered across the southern
locations. Where the storms occur, will easily drop down to MVFR
if not IFR conditions as heavy rain drops visibilities. Showers
and storms should begin to push off to the northeast away from the
area on Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  69  89  72  91 /  70  80  40  10   5
San Angelo  88  70  91  72  91 /  70  80  20   5   5
Junction  88  72  90  72  91 /  30  30  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 071209
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  70  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Doll










000
FXUS64 KSJT 071209
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  70  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 071159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings prevail across the terminals early this morning. A
weak cold front will stall across the area today, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the terminals
through tonight. KJST and KABI will see the greatest coverage
of precipitation, with heavy rainfall likely. Should see ceilings
lift to VFR this afternoon, except in and around convection.
Thunderstorms will be most numerous across the northern terminals
tonight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR across all terminals after
03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  50  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 071159
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings prevail across the terminals early this morning. A
weak cold front will stall across the area today, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the terminals
through tonight. KJST and KABI will see the greatest coverage
of precipitation, with heavy rainfall likely. Should see ceilings
lift to VFR this afternoon, except in and around convection.
Thunderstorms will be most numerous across the northern terminals
tonight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR across all terminals after
03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  50  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 070953
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  50  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Doll









000
FXUS64 KSJT 070953
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo  90  71  91  72  92 /  50  50  20   5   5
Junction  90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 070448 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast concerns revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday night with
associated ceiling/visibility reductions, and with extent of low
cloud development early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have entered the Big Country, and some increase in
coverage is expected overnight. Carrying VCSH/VCTS at KABI. Some
low cloud development is expected across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area toward morning, but could be
limited by extent of high cloud coverage from convection well to
the northwest. Carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF sites
early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic, but appears that the best
chance of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT
and KSOA. Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a
possibility. Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into
the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI
Tuesday evening. Have introduced a wind shift at that location
after 00Z. The latest model data indicates potential for increased
convective development farther south at KSJT and possibly KBBD on
Tuesday night. Covering the possibility with VCTS groups at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 070448 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast concerns revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday night with
associated ceiling/visibility reductions, and with extent of low
cloud development early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have entered the Big Country, and some increase in
coverage is expected overnight. Carrying VCSH/VCTS at KABI. Some
low cloud development is expected across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area toward morning, but could be
limited by extent of high cloud coverage from convection well to
the northwest. Carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF sites
early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic, but appears that the best
chance of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT
and KSOA. Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a
possibility. Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into
the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI
Tuesday evening. Have introduced a wind shift at that location
after 00Z. The latest model data indicates potential for increased
convective development farther south at KSJT and possibly KBBD on
Tuesday night. Covering the possibility with VCTS groups at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 070448 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast concerns revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday night with
associated ceiling/visibility reductions, and with extent of low
cloud development early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have entered the Big Country, and some increase in
coverage is expected overnight. Carrying VCSH/VCTS at KABI. Some
low cloud development is expected across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area toward morning, but could be
limited by extent of high cloud coverage from convection well to
the northwest. Carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF sites
early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic, but appears that the best
chance of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT
and KSOA. Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a
possibility. Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into
the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI
Tuesday evening. Have introduced a wind shift at that location
after 00Z. The latest model data indicates potential for increased
convective development farther south at KSJT and possibly KBBD on
Tuesday night. Covering the possibility with VCTS groups at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 070448 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast concerns revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday night with
associated ceiling/visibility reductions, and with extent of low
cloud development early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have entered the Big Country, and some increase in
coverage is expected overnight. Carrying VCSH/VCTS at KABI. Some
low cloud development is expected across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area toward morning, but could be
limited by extent of high cloud coverage from convection well to
the northwest. Carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF sites
early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic, but appears that the best
chance of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT
and KSOA. Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a
possibility. Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into
the day Tuesday, with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI
Tuesday evening. Have introduced a wind shift at that location
after 00Z. The latest model data indicates potential for increased
convective development farther south at KSJT and possibly KBBD on
Tuesday night. Covering the possibility with VCTS groups at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 062352 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 062352 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast challenges revolve around extent and placement of
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Tuesday with associated ceiling
and visibility reductions, and with extent of low cloud development
early Tuesday morning. The convective activity this evening is
over west and northwest Texas. This is expected to gradually develop
farther east/southeast into our area later tonight. Carrying VCTS at
KABI 09Z-15Z, with VCSH at KSJT and KSOA. Some low cloud development
is expected across the southern and southeastern parts of our area
toward morning, and carrying low cloud groups at our southern TAF
sites early Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday, placement of
showers/thunderstorms is problematic. Appears that the best chance
of occurrence will be at KABI, with a lesser chance at KSJT and KSOA.
Reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible in the heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also a possibility.
Prevailing winds will be from the south tonight into the day Tuesday,
with a weak cold frontal passage possible at KABI by Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15

LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 062054
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15


.LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 062054
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15


.LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 062054
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15


.LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 062054
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15


.LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 061706
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Ceilings will be mostly VFR at all terminals through this
evening. A cold front will move into the western portion of West
Central Texas late this evening with a chance of showers over the
northern terminals beginning after midnight. Stratus moving north
ahead of the cold front will degrade ceilings to MVFR at KJCT and
KBBD by around 08Z. The remainder of the terminals should see
MVFR ceilings by 13Z-15Z. Southerly winds will gust to 20-25
knots at all terminals through this evening before abating.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect areas of stratus across western and southern parts of West
Central Texas this morning and going with MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail after 17Z.
MVFR ceilings will return to the KJCT/KBBD terminals after 08Z
tonight. a few thunderstorms will affect the KABI/KSJT terminals
after 06Z tonight. Confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH.
The winds will be south with gusts near 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

.Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  70  89  72 /  30  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  90  72 /  20  40  40  20   5
Junction  74  89  72  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 061706
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Ceilings will be mostly VFR at all terminals through this
evening. A cold front will move into the western portion of West
Central Texas late this evening with a chance of showers over the
northern terminals beginning after midnight. Stratus moving north
ahead of the cold front will degrade ceilings to MVFR at KJCT and
KBBD by around 08Z. The remainder of the terminals should see
MVFR ceilings by 13Z-15Z. Southerly winds will gust to 20-25
knots at all terminals through this evening before abating.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect areas of stratus across western and southern parts of West
Central Texas this morning and going with MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail after 17Z.
MVFR ceilings will return to the KJCT/KBBD terminals after 08Z
tonight. a few thunderstorms will affect the KABI/KSJT terminals
after 06Z tonight. Confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH.
The winds will be south with gusts near 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

.Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  70  89  72 /  30  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  90  72 /  20  40  40  20   5
Junction  74  89  72  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 061128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect areas of stratus across western and southern parts of West
Central Texas this morning and going with MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail after 17Z.
MVFR ceilings will return to the KJCT/KBBD terminals after 08Z
tonight. a few thunderstorms will affect the KABI/KSJT terminals
after 06Z tonight. Confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH.
The winds will be south with gusts near 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

..Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  85  70  89 /  10  30  60  60  30
San Angelo  93  74  88  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  20
Junction  91  74  89  72  91 /   5  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 061128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect areas of stratus across western and southern parts of West
Central Texas this morning and going with MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail after 17Z.
MVFR ceilings will return to the KJCT/KBBD terminals after 08Z
tonight. a few thunderstorms will affect the KABI/KSJT terminals
after 06Z tonight. Confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH.
The winds will be south with gusts near 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

..Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  85  70  89 /  10  30  60  60  30
San Angelo  93  74  88  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  20
Junction  91  74  89  72  91 /   5  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 061128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect areas of stratus across western and southern parts of West
Central Texas this morning and going with MVFR ceilings at the
southern terminals. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail after 17Z.
MVFR ceilings will return to the KJCT/KBBD terminals after 08Z
tonight. a few thunderstorms will affect the KABI/KSJT terminals
after 06Z tonight. Confidence is only high enough to go with VCSH.
The winds will be south with gusts near 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

..Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  85  70  89 /  10  30  60  60  30
San Angelo  93  74  88  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  20
Junction  91  74  89  72  91 /   5  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 060955
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

...Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  85  70  89 /  10  30  60  60  30
San Angelo  93  74  88  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  20
Junction  91  74  89  72  91 /   5  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 060955
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
455 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level southerly flow in progress across West Central Texas this
morning, with stratus developing across the southern half of the
area. Conditions were warm and humid, with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. For today,
look for the southerly flow to continue across the area, along with
a mainly dry forecast. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. The Texas
Tech WRF is indicating scattered thunderstorms developing across the
high terrain of southwest Texas this afternoon. A few of the storms
may make it east into the far western Concho Valley and Crockett
County late this afternoon, so have kept the slight chance Pops. The
main hazard from storms will be dangerous lightning.

For tonight, the chance of rain increase across western and northern
counties. The combination of weak mid to upper level ascent, low
level convergence along a cold front(to our northwest), increasing
low level jet and some instability will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas. The hi res models
indicate convection rapidly developing along cold front across the
Texas Panhandle on east into Oklahoma this evening. This activity
will probably make it southeast into the Big Country and western
Concho Valley mainly after 03Z, with the Texas Tech WRF and ARW
indicating this scenario. Going with chance to likely Pops across
northern and western counties for tonight and slight chance Pops
across much of the remainder of the area. The main hazards from
storms will be dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

...Heavy rainfall likely across portions of the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night...

The main concern early in the extended period will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. By early Tuesday,
a weak cold front is expected to be situated across northwest
Texas. Models differ with the southward extent of the front with
the NAM stalling the front across the Concho Valley and Heartland
by Tuesday evening, while the GFS and ECMWF stall the front across
the Big Country. The front will serve as a focusing mechanism for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best
coverage of precipitation occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a southern stream short wave moves east from the southern Rockies.
The airmass across the area will be very moist, with precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches across the Big Country. This
will set the stage for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding as training convection occurs along and north of the
frontal boundary. Keeping likely POPs confined to the Big Country
Tuesday/Tuesday night and extended chance POPs farther south into
portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau and Heartland this
forecast cycle.

Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected generally along and north
of interstate 20, where 2 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible. Across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
1/2 to 1 inch totals are expected, with lighter amounts farther
south. Uncertainty in the frontal position and placement of the
heaviest rainfall will preclude issuing a Flash flood Watch at
this time but may be needed eventually for portions of the area.

Rain chances will linger across northern sections on Wednesday but
dry weather returns to West Central Texas Thursday through Sunday,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  85  70  89 /  10  30  60  60  30
San Angelo  93  74  88  70  90 /  10  20  40  40  20
Junction  91  74  89  72  91 /   5  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 060423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

No major changes this forecast cycle. Stratus is already
developing across the Texas Hill Country. Our southern three
terminals should be under MVFR ceilings by 08Z, and VFR return
still looks likely by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

.Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 060423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

No major changes this forecast cycle. Stratus is already
developing across the Texas Hill Country. Our southern three
terminals should be under MVFR ceilings by 08Z, and VFR return
still looks likely by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

.Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 052330
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

..Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 052330
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

..Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 052330
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

..Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 052008
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

...Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 051705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Southern terminal ceilings will degrade to MVFR around 09Z and
return to VFR around 13Z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions
with southerly winds gusting to around 20 knots through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  73  88  71 /   5  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  73  93  73  90  71 /   5  10  20  30  30
Junction  72  91  74  90  72 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 051705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Southern terminal ceilings will degrade to MVFR around 09Z and
return to VFR around 13Z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions
with southerly winds gusting to around 20 knots through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  73  88  71 /   5  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  73  93  73  90  71 /   5  10  20  30  30
Junction  72  91  74  90  72 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Southern terminal ceilings will degrade to MVFR around 09Z and
return to VFR around 13Z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions
with southerly winds gusting to around 20 knots through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  73  88  71 /   5  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  73  93  73  90  71 /   5  10  20  30  30
Junction  72  91  74  90  72 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051705
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Southern terminal ceilings will degrade to MVFR around 09Z and
return to VFR around 13Z. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions
with southerly winds gusting to around 20 knots through the next
24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  73  88  71 /   5  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  73  93  73  90  71 /   5  10  20  30  30
Junction  72  91  74  90  72 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 051109
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  73  93  73  88 /  10   5  10  30  40
San Angelo  93  73  93  73  90 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  91  72  91  74  90 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 051109
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. The high clouds
have prevented stratus from developing so far this morning. Some
localize MVFR ceilings are still possible for a few hours this
morning along the I-10 corridor. However, will keep the TAFS VFR
for now. The winds will be south with gusts to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  73  93  73  88 /  10   5  10  30  40
San Angelo  93  73  93  73  90 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  91  72  91  74  90 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050951
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  73  93  73  88 /  10   5  10  30  40
San Angelo  93  73  93  73  90 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  91  72  91  74  90 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 050951
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
451 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper high was located over eastern New Mexico and western Texas
this morning, with the forecast area under weak northerly flow
aloft. The weather looks quiet the next 24 hours. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the first part of
the extended period. An upper level short wave will move across
the Northern Plains on Monday and will send a weak cold front
across northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the day.
The front is expected to stall across northwest Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before washing out on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, with
best rain chances favoring the Big Country counties, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may also develop farther
south along any outflow boundaries. The potential exists for locally
heavy rainfall, as precipitable waters range between 1.5 and 2.0
inches. The stalled front will wash out on Wednesday but still
cold see a few showers or storms mainly across northern counties
during the day.

Dry weather returns to the area late next week into the following
weekend as the upper ridge dominates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  73  93  73  88 /  10   5  10  30  40
San Angelo  93  73  93  73  90 /   5   5  10  20  30
Junction  91  72  91  74  90 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 050419
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A persistence forecast still looks good this cycle. Models this
cycle continue to bring stratus and MVFR ceilings back to our
southern three terminals by sunrise tomorrow morning. By 18Z
tomorrow, expect VFR conditions at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus and MVFR ceilings to return to much of West
Central Texas. Persistence looks to be the best approach this
cycle, with MVFR ceilings developing tonight at our southern three
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 050419
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A persistence forecast still looks good this cycle. Models this
cycle continue to bring stratus and MVFR ceilings back to our
southern three terminals by sunrise tomorrow morning. By 18Z
tomorrow, expect VFR conditions at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus and MVFR ceilings to return to much of West
Central Texas. Persistence looks to be the best approach this
cycle, with MVFR ceilings developing tonight at our southern three
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 042345
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus and MVFR ceilings to return to much of West
Central Texas. Persistence looks to be the best approach this
cycle, with MVFR ceilings developing tonight at our southern three
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 042345
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus and MVFR ceilings to return to much of West
Central Texas. Persistence looks to be the best approach this
cycle, with MVFR ceilings developing tonight at our southern three
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 042026
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 042026
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper high continues to dominate the southwestern states this
afternoon with the forecast area remaining on its eastern periphery
under a northwest flow aloft. Will  continue with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this evening over the northeast Big
Country. The center of the upper high is forecast to move to the
southeast through tomorrow with its center over West Texas by late
tomorrow. The forecast area will come under a more northerly flow
aloft as the northwest flow aloft shifts a little more to our east
concomitant with the movement of the upper low. Consequently, a dry
forecast is on tap for the area tomorrow.

Overnight lows will be similar to this morning with lower 70s in
most locations. Expect highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 90s
over the southern CWA to the mid 90s over the northern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

the pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge to the west
weakens...allowing a shortwave trough to dive southward into west
Texas. In addition...a weak cold front will make a push southward
into the Panhandle and northwest Texas. We will see a slight
chance of rain for western counties by Monday afternoon....but the
better precip chance will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the
boundary hangs up just north the area, and storms send outflow
boundaries further south to kick off additional storms. Have kept
the highest rainfall amounts across the Big Country for Tuesday
into Wednesday, but most areas could see at least a little rain by
mid week. Upper ridge builds back into the southern Plains by
Thursday to the end of the week...with warm and dry weather
returning.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  93  72  93  73 /  10  10   5  20  30
San Angelo  72  92  72  93  73 /  10   5   5  20  20
Junction  73  90  71  91  73 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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