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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
815 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC
WEATHER DISTURBANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 95-125KT WESTERLY JET OVER
WESTERN CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.10"-0.20" NORTHERN
UTAH...TO 0.33"-0.40" ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES A PACIFIC TAP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN.

BASED ON LACK OF LIGHTNING AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. REDUCED POPS TO 20 PERCENT COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH SREF INDICATING NIL MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...REMOVED ANY POPS AS CONVECTION SHOULD DECAY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.

REST OF FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE OLD
SURFACE BOUNDARY AT MID-AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
ALIGNED WITH A WEAK NEAR 700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SUPPLEMENTED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE DISSIPATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT.

THE VORTICITY MAX HUNG UP OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRAS STILL PROGGED TO
DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY...THEN TRACK EAST
INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS ARIZONA WITH ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS UTAH
LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE BASIN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO REACH
NORTHWEST UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RATHER COLD AIR TRAILING THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA
AND WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND RELATED HAZARDS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR
AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT REACHES NORTHWEST UTAH.

THE SECOND AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SECONDARY TROUGH WILL REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CARVE
OUT A BROAD COLD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN HEADING INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLDER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM MOVES OVER
UTAH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ALONG
WITH A FAVORABLE WEST TO EAST SURFACE GRADIENT. DEPENDING ON FUEL
STATUS THIS MAY BECOME THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING DAY OF THE SEASON.
IN ADDITION THE EC IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND IF THIS SOLUTION COMES
TO BE THEN THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG EITHER. THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.

DUE TO THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND DEEPER IT HAS A BETTER ORGANIZED
BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTH STRETCHING FROM ABOUT SLC SOUTHWARD TO
CEDAR CITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SOLUTION.
WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10 DEGREES C AT 700MB FROM ABOUT NEPHI
NORTHWARD HAD TO GO WITH ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SOUTH OF THERE.
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT
COHESIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALONG TIME SO THEY MAY FEEL COLDER THAN OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF
MARCH.

THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT RAPIDLY FRIDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FINAL WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE CWA. THE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COLD AT
MINUS 10 DEGREES C THROUGH NOON FRIDAY SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARMING
YET ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 4 TO 6 DEGREES C AT 700MB
SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING A
LITTLE SLOWER SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR NORTHERN UTAH FOR
SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP GET THE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S SUNDAY
OVER MOST VALLEYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERN AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST THROUGH 02-04Z THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 292147
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC
WEATHER DISTURBANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AT MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH A WEAK NEAR
700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SUPPLEMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT.

THE VORTICITY MAX HUNG UP OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRAS STILL PROGGED
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY...THEN TRACK
EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS ARIZONA WITH ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS
UTAH LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE BASIN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO
REACH NORTHWEST UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH RATHER COLD AIR TRAILING THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND RELATED HAZARDS ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE
MID-LEVEL COLD AIR AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT REACHES NORTHWEST
UTAH.

THE SECOND AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SECONDARY TROUGH WILL REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CARVE OUT A BROAD COLD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN HEADING
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PUSH ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONGER
AND DEEPER SYSTEM MOVES OVER UTAH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
GRADIENT. DEPENDING ON FUEL STATUS THIS MAY BECOME THE FIRST RED
FLAG WARNING DAY OF THE SEASON. IN ADDITION THE EC IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS AND IF THIS SOLUTION COMES TO BE THEN THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG EITHER. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO LEANED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

DUE TO THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND DEEPER IT HAS A BETTER ORGANIZED
BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTH STRETCHING FROM ABOUT SLC SOUTHWARD
TO CEDAR CITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SOLUTION.
WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10 DEGREES C AT 700MB FROM ABOUT NEPHI
NORTHWARD HAD TO GO WITH ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SOUTH OF THERE.
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT
COHESIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALONG TIME SO THEY MAY FEEL COLDER THAN OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF
MARCH.

THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT RAPIDLY FRIDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FINAL WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE CWA. THE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COLD AT
MINUS 10 DEGREES C THROUGH NOON FRIDAY SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH
WARMING YET ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 4 TO 6 DEGREES C
AT 700MB SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING A
LITTLE SLOWER SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR NORTHERN UTAH FOR
SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP GET THE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S SUNDAY
OVER MOST VALLEYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERN AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST THROUGH 03Z THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292147
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC
WEATHER DISTURBANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AT MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH A WEAK NEAR
700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SUPPLEMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT.

THE VORTICITY MAX HUNG UP OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRAS STILL PROGGED
TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY...THEN TRACK
EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS ARIZONA WITH ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS
UTAH LOOK FOR AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF COLD PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE BASIN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO
REACH NORTHWEST UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH RATHER COLD AIR TRAILING THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND RELATED HAZARDS ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE
MID-LEVEL COLD AIR AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT REACHES NORTHWEST
UTAH.

THE SECOND AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SECONDARY TROUGH WILL REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CARVE OUT A BROAD COLD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN HEADING
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PUSH ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONGER
AND DEEPER SYSTEM MOVES OVER UTAH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
GRADIENT. DEPENDING ON FUEL STATUS THIS MAY BECOME THE FIRST RED
FLAG WARNING DAY OF THE SEASON. IN ADDITION THE EC IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS AND IF THIS SOLUTION COMES TO BE THEN THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG EITHER. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO LEANED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

DUE TO THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND DEEPER IT HAS A BETTER ORGANIZED
BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER NORTH STRETCHING FROM ABOUT SLC SOUTHWARD
TO CEDAR CITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SOLUTION.
WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10 DEGREES C AT 700MB FROM ABOUT NEPHI
NORTHWARD HAD TO GO WITH ALL SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SOUTH OF THERE.
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT
COHESIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALONG TIME SO THEY MAY FEEL COLDER THAN OTHERWISE FOR THE END OF
MARCH.

THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT RAPIDLY FRIDAY BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FINAL WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE CWA. THE 700MB TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COLD AT
MINUS 10 DEGREES C THROUGH NOON FRIDAY SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH
WARMING YET ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 4 TO 6 DEGREES C
AT 700MB SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING A
LITTLE SLOWER SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR NORTHERN UTAH FOR
SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP GET THE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S SUNDAY
OVER MOST VALLEYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERN AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST THROUGH 03Z THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 291613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRAS WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TODAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AND
ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SWEPT SOUTH THROUGH UTAH YESTERDAY
HAS STALLED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. WHAT LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THAT EXISTS APPEARS TO HAVE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THAT SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT
AS THE VORTICITY MAX NEARS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE VORTICITY MAX TRACKS EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY COLD AND ENERGETIC PACIFIC
TROUGHS MIDWEEK. THE LEADING FEATURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. NO OTHER OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 291613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRAS WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TODAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AND
ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SWEPT SOUTH THROUGH UTAH YESTERDAY
HAS STALLED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. WHAT LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THAT EXISTS APPEARS TO HAVE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THAT SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT
AS THE VORTICITY MAX NEARS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE VORTICITY MAX TRACKS EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY COLD AND ENERGETIC PACIFIC
TROUGHS MIDWEEK. THE LEADING FEATURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING. NO OTHER OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291046
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERED THE AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW STALLED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A FEW
CLOUDS CONFINED IN A NARROW BAND PER SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF THE NEAR 700MB BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPSTREAM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK...WILL BE ENOUGH TO
STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE /FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS OUT BETWEEN 0.35-0.4
INCHES/ SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS DIFFICULT TO COME BY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS MAINLY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ALONG THE
NORTHERN BRANCH...WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE LACK OF STRONG
LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY DOWNSTREAM OF
A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST...WITH THE BULGING THERMAL RIDGE
BUMPING 700MB TEMPERATURES UP. THE EC INDICATES 700MB TEMPERATURE AT
SLC WILL BE +7C ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS COMES IN WITH A MORE
CONSERVATIVE +5C. GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...GOOD MIXING OWING TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS...AND INCREASING SUN ANGLE...TUESDAY HAS A
CHANCE TO BE THE NEW WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY AREAS.

OF COURSE...THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS ALL FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN...WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY AT SLC FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6 AND -8C IN A MATTER OF 12 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT EVEN SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF THE LATEST MODELS ARE
CORRECT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG...THE BULK OF
THE UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF UTAH. THIS COMBINED
WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 4-5KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...AFTER THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PUSH ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONGER
AND DEEPER WAVE MOVES OVER UTAH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SO OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...AS 700MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO -10C OVER
NORTHERN UTAH BY 00Z FRIDAY. FINALLY...THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OF THE WEEK...AS SKIES LOOK TO
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THIS
SHIFT...AND STILL MAY BE TOO WARM IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS ALL
TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
ALOFT...WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER TROUGH OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT...HAVE LEFT THE HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED AT
THIS POINT IN TIME. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER COLORADO OR EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD BY 12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. KEPT WARMING MODEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH SUB-PAR MIXING IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE
TEMPS A FAIR AMOUNT ON SATURDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ABOUT INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE NEXT TROUGH...BUT
COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERN AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN THROUGH 17Z...BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290207
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
807 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH SHEARING OVER
NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
90-115KT WESTERLY JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.10"- 0.15" FAR NORTHWEST UTAH...TO
0.33"-0.50" ACROSS MOST OTHER VALLEYS EXCEPT DIXIE. BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
INSTABILITY WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET SO CONVECTION SHOULD
DECAY BY LATE EVENING.

OTHERWISE RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. WITH A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...INCREASED WINDS IN TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE/CANYON LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE JUST TOUCHED UP TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT TERM LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING THE FRONT GENERATING FAIRLY
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THIS TIME. SUSPECT THAT THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS STRONG AS THE COLD ADVECTION BECOMES LESS
STRONG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

CONVECTION SPRINGING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE EVEN LIGHT PRECIP. THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER COLD AIR ALOFT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP A FEW EVENING SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT DOES EXIST WILL POOL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE MAY FIND SOME SUPPORT
FOR LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS
ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GENERATE PRECIP...BUT WILL INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRAILING THE RIDGE WILL BRING BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT BAROCLINICITY BUT NEITHER SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
HOWEVER IF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES STRONGER THIS WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN THE FIRST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY REDUCE THE
SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BUT BECAUSE THERE IS ABOUT 30-50 METER
VARIATION IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER UTAH
THURSDAY NIGHT WANTED TO LEAVE ROOM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.

SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MANY VALLEY
EXCLUDING DIXIE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A NORTHWEST WIND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 290207
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
807 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH SHEARING OVER
NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
90-115KT WESTERLY JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.10"- 0.15" FAR NORTHWEST UTAH...TO
0.33"-0.50" ACROSS MOST OTHER VALLEYS EXCEPT DIXIE. BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING PER RADAR TRENDS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
INSTABILITY WANES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET SO CONVECTION SHOULD
DECAY BY LATE EVENING.

OTHERWISE RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. WITH A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...INCREASED WINDS IN TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE/CANYON LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE JUST TOUCHED UP TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORT TERM LAMP GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING THE FRONT GENERATING FAIRLY
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THIS TIME. SUSPECT THAT THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS STRONG AS THE COLD ADVECTION BECOMES LESS
STRONG ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

CONVECTION SPRINGING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE EVEN LIGHT PRECIP. THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER COLD AIR ALOFT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP A FEW EVENING SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT DOES EXIST WILL POOL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE MAY FIND SOME SUPPORT
FOR LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DRIFT EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS
ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GENERATE PRECIP...BUT WILL INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRAILING THE RIDGE WILL BRING BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT BAROCLINICITY BUT NEITHER SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
HOWEVER IF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES STRONGER THIS WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN THE FIRST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY REDUCE THE
SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BUT BECAUSE THERE IS ABOUT 30-50 METER
VARIATION IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER UTAH
THURSDAY NIGHT WANTED TO LEAVE ROOM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.

SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MANY VALLEY
EXCLUDING DIXIE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A NORTHWEST WIND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 282155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT .A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SUPPORTING THE FRONT GENERATING FAIRLY STRONG POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THIS TIME. SUSPECT THAT THESE WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS STRONG AS THE COLD ADVECTION BECOMES LESS STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

CONVECTION SPRINGING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE EVEN LIGHT PRECIP. THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER COLD AIR ALOFT
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP A FEW EVENING SHOWERS MENTIONED
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT DOES EXIST WILL POOL OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE MAY
FIND SOME SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DRIFT
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GENERATE
PRECIP...BUT WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRAILING THE RIDGE WILL BRING BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DECENT BAROCLINICITY BUT NEITHER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH BECOMES STRONGER THIS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THE FIRST TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY REDUCE THE SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BUT BECAUSE THERE IS ABOUT 30-50 METER
VARIATION IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER UTAH
THURSDAY NIGHT WANTED TO LEAVE ROOM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.

SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MANY VALLEY
EXCLUDING DIXIE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THEN NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST SOMETIME AFTER 11Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MAINTAINING A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 282155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SWEEP SOUTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT .A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
THROUGH ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SUPPORTING THE FRONT GENERATING FAIRLY STRONG POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS AT THIS TIME. SUSPECT THAT THESE WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS STRONG AS THE COLD ADVECTION BECOMES LESS STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

CONVECTION SPRINGING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE EVEN LIGHT PRECIP. THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER COLD AIR ALOFT
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. WILL KEEP A FEW EVENING SHOWERS MENTIONED
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT DOES EXIST WILL POOL OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE MAY
FIND SOME SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DRIFT
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. SUSPECT THAT THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GENERATE
PRECIP...BUT WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TRAILING THE RIDGE WILL BRING BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE GFS AND EC
HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DECENT BAROCLINICITY BUT NEITHER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH BECOMES STRONGER THIS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THE FIRST TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONSEQUENTLY REDUCE THE SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS STRONGER AND WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BUT BECAUSE THERE IS ABOUT 30-50 METER
VARIATION IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER UTAH
THURSDAY NIGHT WANTED TO LEAVE ROOM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.

SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MANY VALLEY
EXCLUDING DIXIE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THEN NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST SOMETIME AFTER 11Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MAINTAINING A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE MORNING. NO OTHER
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNING TO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MONTANA SOUTH
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SWEEP SOUTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH
STRONG POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO/NORTHERN
NEVADA WILL WEAKEN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF A
STRUGGLE CONSIDERING THE RATHER DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE STATE AND
MARGINAL LIFT FROM WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WEAKENING THERMAL
ADVECTION. GUSTY WIND WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE DOES MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH
WITH THE UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY WILL ALSO COME
UP A LITTLE SHORT ON PRECIP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SECOND
FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT WILL BE
SPLITTING AND WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UTAH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AWAY FROM UTAH LATER ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 18Z THEN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WITH THE PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED AT ABOUT 20Z. NO CIGS
BELOW 10K FT AGL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281546
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNING TO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MONTANA SOUTH
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SWEEP SOUTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS WELL-DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH
STRONG POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO/NORTHERN
NEVADA WILL WEAKEN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF A
STRUGGLE CONSIDERING THE RATHER DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE STATE AND
MARGINAL LIFT FROM WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WEAKENING THERMAL
ADVECTION. GUSTY WIND WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE DOES MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH
WITH THE UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY WILL ALSO COME
UP A LITTLE SHORT ON PRECIP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS SECOND
FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT WILL BE
SPLITTING AND WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES UTAH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AWAY FROM UTAH LATER ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 18Z THEN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WITH THE PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED AT ABOUT 20Z. NO CIGS
BELOW 10K FT AGL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
STARTING TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ENTERS NORTHERN UTAH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS SLC AROUND MIDDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO DECENT MIXING
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AND H7 TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN
WARM...FOR EXAMPLE NEAR 4C AT SLC...AT THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE BULK OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH JUST A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS SEEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY. AS A RESULT...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY WHICH COULD KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINING VERY LIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ONLY SEE A MODEST COOLDOWN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...OFFERING ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO DO ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...CHALLENGING TO ADD MUCH DETAIL TO
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES IN THE MID/LATE WEEK
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THE LATTER THU INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS TUESDAY IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHT CHANCE MTN POPS OVER THE NORTH COINCIDENT
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS IN FAIR BIT BETTER AGREEMENT W/THIS FEATURE VS. THE TRAILING
WAVE FOR LATE WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO WAFFLE REGARDING BREADTH OF CAA
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...H7 TEMPS AT KSLC NOW 2 TO 4 DEGREES C WARMER
IN 00Z EC VS. PREVIOUS RUNS AND THAT CURRENT IN THE GFS. HOLDING PAT
W/A NOTED COOL DOWN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN
WAKE OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
DIMINISHES CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT/PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY VALLEY PRECIP.

00Z GFS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE W/THE LATE WEEK SHORT WAVE VS.
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. STANDING PAT THAT SAID WAVE
WILL BE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE
DOMINANT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE AMPLIFIED
CURVATURE...AND HAVE RETAINED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW HOWEVER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z
PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
STARTING TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ENTERS NORTHERN UTAH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS SLC AROUND MIDDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO DECENT MIXING
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AND H7 TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN
WARM...FOR EXAMPLE NEAR 4C AT SLC...AT THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE BULK OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH JUST A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS SEEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY. AS A RESULT...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY WHICH COULD KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINING VERY LIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ONLY SEE A MODEST COOLDOWN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...OFFERING ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO DO ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...CHALLENGING TO ADD MUCH DETAIL TO
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES IN THE MID/LATE WEEK
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THE LATTER THU INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS TUESDAY IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHT CHANCE MTN POPS OVER THE NORTH COINCIDENT
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS IN FAIR BIT BETTER AGREEMENT W/THIS FEATURE VS. THE TRAILING
WAVE FOR LATE WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO WAFFLE REGARDING BREADTH OF CAA
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...H7 TEMPS AT KSLC NOW 2 TO 4 DEGREES C WARMER
IN 00Z EC VS. PREVIOUS RUNS AND THAT CURRENT IN THE GFS. HOLDING PAT
W/A NOTED COOL DOWN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN
WAKE OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
DIMINISHES CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT/PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY VALLEY PRECIP.

00Z GFS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE W/THE LATE WEEK SHORT WAVE VS.
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. STANDING PAT THAT SAID WAVE
WILL BE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE
DOMINANT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE AMPLIFIED
CURVATURE...AND HAVE RETAINED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW HOWEVER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z
PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
STARTING TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL YIELD TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ENTERS NORTHERN UTAH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS SLC AROUND MIDDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO DECENT MIXING
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT AND H7 TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN
WARM...FOR EXAMPLE NEAR 4C AT SLC...AT THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

THE BULK OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH JUST A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS SEEN NEAR THE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY. AS A RESULT...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY WHICH COULD KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINING VERY LIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ONLY SEE A MODEST COOLDOWN FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...OFFERING ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO DO ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...CHALLENGING TO ADD MUCH DETAIL TO
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES IN THE MID/LATE WEEK
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THE LATTER THU INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS TUESDAY IN A WELL MIXED PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLIGHT CHANCE MTN POPS OVER THE NORTH COINCIDENT
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS IN FAIR BIT BETTER AGREEMENT W/THIS FEATURE VS. THE TRAILING
WAVE FOR LATE WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO WAFFLE REGARDING BREADTH OF CAA
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...H7 TEMPS AT KSLC NOW 2 TO 4 DEGREES C WARMER
IN 00Z EC VS. PREVIOUS RUNS AND THAT CURRENT IN THE GFS. HOLDING PAT
W/A NOTED COOL DOWN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN
WAKE OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
DIMINISHES CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT/PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY VALLEY PRECIP.

00Z GFS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE W/THE LATE WEEK SHORT WAVE VS.
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. STANDING PAT THAT SAID WAVE
WILL BE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE
DOMINANT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE AMPLIFIED
CURVATURE...AND HAVE RETAINED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW HOWEVER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z
PER NORM.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280211
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
811 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A SYSTEM RUNNING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
100-140KT ANTICYCLONIC JET OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" MOUNTAINS TO
0.30-0.40" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHWEST.

RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT UTAH WILL BE IN THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO THE WEST DESERT TOWARD SUNRISE.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE DUE TO A DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WARMED OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS WITH LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-
FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES
15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING
ON RECORD TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC
SATURDAY IS 77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE RAISED
POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST COOLDOWN TO MOST
AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.

RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/SEAMAN/LOEFFELBEIN
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280211
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
811 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A SYSTEM RUNNING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
100-140KT ANTICYCLONIC JET OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" MOUNTAINS TO
0.30-0.40" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHWEST.

RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT UTAH WILL BE IN THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO THE WEST DESERT TOWARD SUNRISE.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE DUE TO A DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WARMED OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS WITH LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-
FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES
15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING
ON RECORD TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC
SATURDAY IS 77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE RAISED
POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST COOLDOWN TO MOST
AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.

RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/SEAMAN/LOEFFELBEIN
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280211
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
811 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A SYSTEM RUNNING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
100-140KT ANTICYCLONIC JET OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" MOUNTAINS TO
0.30-0.40" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AN ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHWEST.

RAP 850-700MB THICKNESS/SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/STREAMLINES INDICATE THAT UTAH WILL BE IN THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO THE WEST DESERT TOWARD SUNRISE.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE DUE TO A DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WARMED OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSER TO LAMP GUIDANCE. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS WITH LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-
FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES
15 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING
ON RECORD TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC
SATURDAY IS 77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE RAISED
POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST COOLDOWN TO MOST
AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.

RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/SEAMAN/LOEFFELBEIN
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON RECORD
TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC SATURDAY IS
77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN TO MOST AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE/LOEFFELBEIN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 272126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON RECORD
TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC SATURDAY IS
77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN TO MOST AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE/LOEFFELBEIN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON RECORD
TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC SATURDAY IS
77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN TO MOST AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE/LOEFFELBEIN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON RECORD
TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC SATURDAY IS
77). WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING A SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION...AND HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN TO MOST AREAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REBOUND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE.



&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BECOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WARMED THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS A BIT.

A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT AS MAINLY
DRY...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
TO AT LEAST INCREASE THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS DEPICT
700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -10 TO -12C POST FRONTAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SO KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE/LOEFFELBEIN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271455
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
855 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND A
WARMING TREND REGIONWIDE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE
WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING
SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL
MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR
MORE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON
RECORD TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC
SATURDAY IS 77).

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AROUND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271455
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
855 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND A
WARMING TREND REGIONWIDE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE
WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE TRAILING
SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL
MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES 15 OR
MORE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ENCROACHING ON
RECORD TERRITORY IN A FEW LOCATIONS (THE RECORD HIGH FOR KSLC
SATURDAY IS 77).

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AROUND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WARM DRY RIDGE CONDITIONS WITH PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE YESTERDAYS MILD READINGS WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT THEN HEADS SOUTH OVERNIGHT STALLING
ACROSS SRN UT ON SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION BUT DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF
MEASURABLE RAIN SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS
SAT AFTN SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THRU SUN.

THE FRONT COMES THRU NRN UT LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM A BIT FROM TODAY WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FOR
SLC...ONLY A COUPLE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD OF 77 FOR THE DATE.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SRN UT.

EXPECT SOME COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH SUN BUT AS PREV SHIFT
NOTED...ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABV NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15-20. THE
SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE.

EC SENDS ANOTHER WEAK GRAZING TROF THRU NRN UT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
A LITTLE MORE COOLING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY W TO NW FLOW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH AND INCLUDED THIS NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA
MTNS MON AS A NOD TO THE EC ALTHO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN LARGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS. GIVEN PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD BOTH
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL...CONFIDENCE IN
MOST RECENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

DETAILS...NORTHERN BRANCH STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A
TWO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ONLY
CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY...THIS ALLOWING A SHALLOW
AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WITH BULK OF COOLING OCCURRING AT
AND BELOW H7 AS COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH LARGELY DRY...THIS FRONT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO ON WED HOWEVER. LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WITH FRONT ATTM...AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THU INTO FRI...WITH AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TAP ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
BRITCOL. AMPLIFICATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE SIMILAR
IN GLOBALS THOUGH SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT
REMAINS 6 HRS OFF OR SO. BY 06Z FRI BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING H7
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 C AT KSLC...SO AGAIN MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER
COOLDOWN WITH TEMPS DROPPING OT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OVERHEAD AND BREADTH OF
COLD ADVECTION DEPICTED MORE APT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BIT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. FOR NOW INCREASED POPS
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS TREND IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAND PAT W/THIS.

BOTTOM LINE...LARGELY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE
WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z PER NORM...WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED UNDER CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WARM DRY RIDGE CONDITIONS WITH PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE YESTERDAYS MILD READINGS WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT THEN HEADS SOUTH OVERNIGHT STALLING
ACROSS SRN UT ON SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION BUT DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF
MEASURABLE RAIN SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS
SAT AFTN SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THRU SUN.

THE FRONT COMES THRU NRN UT LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM A BIT FROM TODAY WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FOR
SLC...ONLY A COUPLE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD OF 77 FOR THE DATE.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SRN UT.

EXPECT SOME COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH SUN BUT AS PREV SHIFT
NOTED...ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABV NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15-20. THE
SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE.

EC SENDS ANOTHER WEAK GRAZING TROF THRU NRN UT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
A LITTLE MORE COOLING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY W TO NW FLOW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH AND INCLUDED THIS NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA
MTNS MON AS A NOD TO THE EC ALTHO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN LARGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS. GIVEN PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD BOTH
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL...CONFIDENCE IN
MOST RECENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

DETAILS...NORTHERN BRANCH STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A
TWO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ONLY
CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY...THIS ALLOWING A SHALLOW
AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WITH BULK OF COOLING OCCURRING AT
AND BELOW H7 AS COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH LARGELY DRY...THIS FRONT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO ON WED HOWEVER. LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WITH FRONT ATTM...AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THU INTO FRI...WITH AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TAP ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
BRITCOL. AMPLIFICATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE SIMILAR
IN GLOBALS THOUGH SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT
REMAINS 6 HRS OFF OR SO. BY 06Z FRI BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING H7
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 C AT KSLC...SO AGAIN MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER
COOLDOWN WITH TEMPS DROPPING OT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OVERHEAD AND BREADTH OF
COLD ADVECTION DEPICTED MORE APT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BIT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. FOR NOW INCREASED POPS
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS TREND IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAND PAT W/THIS.

BOTTOM LINE...LARGELY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE
WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z PER NORM...WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED UNDER CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WARM DRY RIDGE CONDITIONS WITH PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE YESTERDAYS MILD READINGS WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT THEN HEADS SOUTH OVERNIGHT STALLING
ACROSS SRN UT ON SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION BUT DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF
MEASURABLE RAIN SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS
SAT AFTN SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THRU SUN.

THE FRONT COMES THRU NRN UT LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM A BIT FROM TODAY WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FOR
SLC...ONLY A COUPLE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD OF 77 FOR THE DATE.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SRN UT.

EXPECT SOME COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH SUN BUT AS PREV SHIFT
NOTED...ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABV NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15-20. THE
SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE.

EC SENDS ANOTHER WEAK GRAZING TROF THRU NRN UT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
A LITTLE MORE COOLING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY W TO NW FLOW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH AND INCLUDED THIS NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA
MTNS MON AS A NOD TO THE EC ALTHO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN LARGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS. GIVEN PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD BOTH
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL...CONFIDENCE IN
MOST RECENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

DETAILS...NORTHERN BRANCH STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A
TWO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ONLY
CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY...THIS ALLOWING A SHALLOW
AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WITH BULK OF COOLING OCCURRING AT
AND BELOW H7 AS COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH LARGELY DRY...THIS FRONT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO ON WED HOWEVER. LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WITH FRONT ATTM...AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THU INTO FRI...WITH AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TAP ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
BRITCOL. AMPLIFICATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE SIMILAR
IN GLOBALS THOUGH SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT
REMAINS 6 HRS OFF OR SO. BY 06Z FRI BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING H7
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 C AT KSLC...SO AGAIN MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER
COOLDOWN WITH TEMPS DROPPING OT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OVERHEAD AND BREADTH OF
COLD ADVECTION DEPICTED MORE APT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BIT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. FOR NOW INCREASED POPS
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS TREND IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAND PAT W/THIS.

BOTTOM LINE...LARGELY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE
WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z PER NORM...WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED UNDER CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WARM DRY RIDGE CONDITIONS WITH PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE YESTERDAYS MILD READINGS WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT THEN HEADS SOUTH OVERNIGHT STALLING
ACROSS SRN UT ON SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION BUT DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF
MEASURABLE RAIN SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS
SAT AFTN SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THRU SUN.

THE FRONT COMES THRU NRN UT LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM A BIT FROM TODAY WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FOR
SLC...ONLY A COUPLE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD OF 77 FOR THE DATE.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SRN UT.

EXPECT SOME COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH SUN BUT AS PREV SHIFT
NOTED...ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABV NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15-20. THE
SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE.

EC SENDS ANOTHER WEAK GRAZING TROF THRU NRN UT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
A LITTLE MORE COOLING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY W TO NW FLOW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH AND INCLUDED THIS NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA
MTNS MON AS A NOD TO THE EC ALTHO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN LARGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS. GIVEN PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD BOTH
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL...CONFIDENCE IN
MOST RECENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

DETAILS...NORTHERN BRANCH STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A
TWO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ONLY
CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY...THIS ALLOWING A SHALLOW
AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WITH BULK OF COOLING OCCURRING AT
AND BELOW H7 AS COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH LARGELY DRY...THIS FRONT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO ON WED HOWEVER. LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WITH FRONT ATTM...AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THU INTO FRI...WITH AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TAP ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
BRITCOL. AMPLIFICATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE SIMILAR
IN GLOBALS THOUGH SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT
REMAINS 6 HRS OFF OR SO. BY 06Z FRI BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING H7
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 C AT KSLC...SO AGAIN MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER
COOLDOWN WITH TEMPS DROPPING OT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OVERHEAD AND BREADTH OF
COLD ADVECTION DEPICTED MORE APT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BIT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. FOR NOW INCREASED POPS
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS TREND IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAND PAT W/THIS.

BOTTOM LINE...LARGELY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE
WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z PER NORM...WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED UNDER CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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