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000
FXUS65 KSLC 010302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NWRN NV TO CENTRAL NM.
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
DEEPEST OVER SWRN UT WHERE CONVECTION BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES WERE NOTED WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO HIT AN
AUTOMATED SITE. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO
THE HILDALE AREA IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH ONE REPORT OF .91 IN 30
MINS JUST S OF THE UT/AZ BORDER. (THANKS WFO VEF)

THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT THIS TIME ALTHO LOCAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ACTUALLY GENERATE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED E-W TROF ALONG
THE UT/AZ BORDER BY 12Z SUN THEN LIFT THIS FEATURE THRU THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS OR SO. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MON. THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTH INTO TUE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TO RAISE POPS ACROSS SWRN UT. UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVE AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 04Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NWRN NV TO CENTRAL NM.
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
DEEPEST OVER SWRN UT WHERE CONVECTION BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES WERE NOTED WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO HIT AN
AUTOMATED SITE. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO
THE HILDALE AREA IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH ONE REPORT OF .91 IN 30
MINS JUST S OF THE UT/AZ BORDER. (THANKS WFO VEF)

THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT THIS TIME ALTHO LOCAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ACTUALLY GENERATE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED E-W TROF ALONG
THE UT/AZ BORDER BY 12Z SUN THEN LIFT THIS FEATURE THRU THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS OR SO. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MON. THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTH INTO TUE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TO RAISE POPS ACROSS SWRN UT. UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVE AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 04Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NWRN NV TO CENTRAL NM.
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
DEEPEST OVER SWRN UT WHERE CONVECTION BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES WERE NOTED WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO HIT AN
AUTOMATED SITE. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO
THE HILDALE AREA IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH ONE REPORT OF .91 IN 30
MINS JUST S OF THE UT/AZ BORDER. (THANKS WFO VEF)

THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT THIS TIME ALTHO LOCAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ACTUALLY GENERATE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED E-W TROF ALONG
THE UT/AZ BORDER BY 12Z SUN THEN LIFT THIS FEATURE THRU THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS OR SO. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MON. THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTH INTO TUE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TO RAISE POPS ACROSS SWRN UT. UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVE AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 04Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH A NW-SE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NWRN NV TO CENTRAL NM.
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF THIS AXIS
DEEPEST OVER SWRN UT WHERE CONVECTION BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES WERE NOTED WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY MANAGED TO HIT AN
AUTOMATED SITE. ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG CELL BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO
THE HILDALE AREA IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH ONE REPORT OF .91 IN 30
MINS JUST S OF THE UT/AZ BORDER. (THANKS WFO VEF)

THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT THIS TIME ALTHO LOCAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A FEW OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ACTUALLY GENERATE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED E-W TROF ALONG
THE UT/AZ BORDER BY 12Z SUN THEN LIFT THIS FEATURE THRU THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 30-36 HOURS OR SO. THIS COULD KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MON. THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE NORTH INTO TUE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TO RAISE POPS ACROSS SWRN UT. UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVE AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 04Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 312124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH BASED MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
UTAH...SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE PWS ARE IN THE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ARE MOVING LITTLE GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS EXPECT THAT LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN IS HITTING THE GROUND. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXES APPEAR TO BE RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE TROUGH NEAR 130W TRACKS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH IN ORIENTATION...RESULTING IN RATHER LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION OF THE MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TOMORROW...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY AS A VORT MAX MOVES NORTHWARD INTO
NEVADA...SHIFTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WILL DRAW THE MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO GRAZE WESTERN UTAH AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...SHORT WAVE THAT ORIGINATED WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW IS RESOLVED TO REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FAR NORTH/EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR POSITIONING OF THIS WAVE...AND
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO IT.
ADDITIONALLY...LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS H7 TEMPS
WILL BE COOLING BEHIND THIS WAVE PER GLOBALS.

A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN IMPINGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING OF A BRITCOL CLOSED LOW AND
ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A WEAK LOW OFF THE CALI COAST. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES MID
TO LATE WEEK HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRANSLATED THE BRITCOL LOW
SOUTH INTO THE PACNW ALLOWING THE CALI LOW TO OPEN AND SWEEP
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA THURSDAY...THIS OPENING A TAP OF SUB-TROP
MOISTURE TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE STATE ATTM. EC WAS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT HAS NOW CONFORMED TO
THE PREVIOUS GFS. THE LATEST GFS HOWEVER IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BRITCOL LOW AND SLOWER WITH THE CALI LOWS
PROGRESSION AND ASSOCIATED TAP. DUE TO FORECAST SPREAD AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES PRESENT OPTED TO LEAVE THU/FRI GRIDS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH BASED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...SO CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT. COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THIS TIME...THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 312124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
324 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH BASED MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
UTAH...SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE PWS ARE IN THE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ARE MOVING LITTLE GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS EXPECT THAT LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN IS HITTING THE GROUND. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAXES APPEAR TO BE RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE TROUGH NEAR 130W TRACKS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH IN ORIENTATION...RESULTING IN RATHER LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION OF THE MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TOMORROW...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY AS A VORT MAX MOVES NORTHWARD INTO
NEVADA...SHIFTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WILL DRAW THE MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO GRAZE WESTERN UTAH AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...SHORT WAVE THAT ORIGINATED WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW IS RESOLVED TO REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FAR NORTH/EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR POSITIONING OF THIS WAVE...AND
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO IT.
ADDITIONALLY...LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS H7 TEMPS
WILL BE COOLING BEHIND THIS WAVE PER GLOBALS.

A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN IMPINGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING OF A BRITCOL CLOSED LOW AND
ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A WEAK LOW OFF THE CALI COAST. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES MID
TO LATE WEEK HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRANSLATED THE BRITCOL LOW
SOUTH INTO THE PACNW ALLOWING THE CALI LOW TO OPEN AND SWEEP
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEVADA THURSDAY...THIS OPENING A TAP OF SUB-TROP
MOISTURE TO SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE STATE ATTM. EC WAS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT HAS NOW CONFORMED TO
THE PREVIOUS GFS. THE LATEST GFS HOWEVER IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BRITCOL LOW AND SLOWER WITH THE CALI LOWS
PROGRESSION AND ASSOCIATED TAP. DUE TO FORECAST SPREAD AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES PRESENT OPTED TO LEAVE THU/FRI GRIDS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH BASED MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...SO CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT. COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THIS TIME...THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEGINNING MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311616
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED PWS OF 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH AS FAR NORTH AS I-70.
SEEING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
MOISTURE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE IS AT HIGHER LEVELS AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TO HIT
THE GROUND. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
PLANNED.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
130W IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD NORTHWARD.
COMBINED WITH A VORT MAX THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE NOTICEABLY. EC CONTINUES TO REMAIN MORE BULLISH WITH THE
MOISTURE SURGE AND MAY BE OVERDONE. THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BY 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE PAST 12-18 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT
WESTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER. THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY
AT HIGH LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
UTAH TODAY AND ONLY CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD SATURDAY. THERE
IS NO ORGANIZED FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE CONVECTION SO EXPECT
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ABOUT ZONE 496 SOUTHWARD TODAY AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO FIRE ZONES 495 AND 493 SATURDAY.

A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BUT
BECAUSE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
THEREFORE BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY
DISTURBANCE...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311616
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED PWS OF 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH AS FAR NORTH AS I-70.
SEEING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
MOISTURE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE IS AT HIGHER LEVELS AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TO HIT
THE GROUND. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
PLANNED.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
130W IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD NORTHWARD.
COMBINED WITH A VORT MAX THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE NOTICEABLY. EC CONTINUES TO REMAIN MORE BULLISH WITH THE
MOISTURE SURGE AND MAY BE OVERDONE. THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BY 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE PAST 12-18 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT
WESTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER. THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY
AT HIGH LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
UTAH TODAY AND ONLY CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD SATURDAY. THERE
IS NO ORGANIZED FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE CONVECTION SO EXPECT
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ABOUT ZONE 496 SOUTHWARD TODAY AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO FIRE ZONES 495 AND 493 SATURDAY.

A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BUT
BECAUSE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
THEREFORE BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY
DISTURBANCE...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AT 500MB
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS SPLIT WITH A HIGH FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST NEVADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE NEVADA
IDAHO BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA NOT ONLY AT 700MB
WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW RUNS BUT ALSO AT 500MB. THE LOW
LEVELS BELOW 500MB ARE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL UTAH
AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PWS WHICH
ARE SKIRTING SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY ARE STILL A REFLECTION OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT SO MUCH AT LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING MORE WIND THEN RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF THE POPS FROM CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANGED THE FORECAST TO
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE LIFTED INDEX AT
BRYCE IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO ACTUALLY BE LESS UNSTABLE ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO SO LEFT POPS NEARLY THE
SAME AT THIS TIME.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST PICK UP THE CIRCULATION THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE BAJA COAST AND
BRING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE 300MB VORT MAX REACHING WESTERN UTAH BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE
EC MOVES IT INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS
TIMING DISCREPANCY HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE THE ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL LIFT HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
SOME ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BUT DUE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT OF DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAVE NOT GONE OVERBOARD WITH THE
POPS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR AN INCH...CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING STATEWIDE
SUPPORTED.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY...USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
THIS SAID...LINGERING MOISTURE DOES SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

AS MODELS CONTINUE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH AND FOR NORTHWEST
UTAH...WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CLIP REGION.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD...BUT GFS
SUGGESTS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH FORECAST AREA...WHILE
ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN UTAH. GFS IS ALSO STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WITH SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING ACROSS BULK OF FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY 16Z. NO OTHER
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE PAST 12-18 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT
WESTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER. THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY
AT HIGH LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
UTAH TODAY AND ONLY CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD SATURDAY. THERE
IS NO ORGANIZED FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE CONVECTION SO EXPECT
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ABOUT ZONE 496 SOUTHWARD TODAY AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO FIRE ZONES 495 AND 493 SATURDAY.

A DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BUT BECAUSE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER
THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. THEREFORE BE
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY DISTURBANCE...A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AT 500MB
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS SPLIT WITH A HIGH FORMING OVER
NORTHWEST NEVADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE NEVADA
IDAHO BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA NOT ONLY AT 700MB
WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW RUNS BUT ALSO AT 500MB. THE LOW
LEVELS BELOW 500MB ARE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL UTAH
AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PWS WHICH
ARE SKIRTING SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY ARE STILL A REFLECTION OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT SO MUCH AT LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING MORE WIND THEN RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF THE POPS FROM CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANGED THE FORECAST TO
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE LIFTED INDEX AT
BRYCE IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO ACTUALLY BE LESS UNSTABLE ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO SO LEFT POPS NEARLY THE
SAME AT THIS TIME.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST PICK UP THE CIRCULATION THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE BAJA COAST AND
BRING IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE 300MB VORT MAX REACHING WESTERN UTAH BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE
EC MOVES IT INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS
TIMING DISCREPANCY HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE THE ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL LIFT HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
SOME ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BUT DUE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT OF DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAVE NOT GONE OVERBOARD WITH THE
POPS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR AN INCH...CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING STATEWIDE
SUPPORTED.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY...USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
THIS SAID...LINGERING MOISTURE DOES SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

AS MODELS CONTINUE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH AND FOR NORTHWEST
UTAH...WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CLIP REGION.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD...BUT GFS
SUGGESTS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH FORECAST AREA...WHILE
ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
FAR EASTERN UTAH. GFS IS ALSO STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WITH SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING ACROSS BULK OF FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY 16Z. NO OTHER
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE PAST 12-18 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT
WESTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA-UTAH BORDER. THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS MAINLY
AT HIGH LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
UTAH TODAY AND ONLY CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD SATURDAY. THERE
IS NO ORGANIZED FEATURE TO HELP GENERATE CONVECTION SO EXPECT
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ABOUT ZONE 496 SOUTHWARD TODAY AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO FIRE ZONES 495 AND 493 SATURDAY.

A DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT SUNDAY BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BUT BECAUSE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER
THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. THEREFORE BE
ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY DISTURBANCE...A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310259
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
859 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVE. THE MEAN LAYER FLOW BELOW 500
MB PLACES A HIGH CENTER NEAR THE OR/NV/CA TRIPLE POINT WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE DEEP
MOISTURE POOLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO OUR
CWA.

HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH IN PLACE TO SET OFF A FEW LATE AFTN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVEN A LONE TSTM JUST WEST OF ST
GEORGE. A FEW SMALL RETURNS ON THE RADAR PERSIST AT THIS TIME NEAR
LAKE POWELL WESTWARD TOWARDS KANAB AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EVE IN THE FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST THRU SAT IN THE
NEW 00Z NAM THEN THE HIGH RECENTERS OVER SRN CO SAT NIGHT AND THE
FLOW OVER THE CWA FLIPS TO SWLY ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH ON SUN WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH BASED
CONVECTION.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO MAKE LOW POPS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR THIS EVE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 310259
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
859 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVE. THE MEAN LAYER FLOW BELOW 500
MB PLACES A HIGH CENTER NEAR THE OR/NV/CA TRIPLE POINT WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE DEEP
MOISTURE POOLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH FROM MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO OUR
CWA.

HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH IN PLACE TO SET OFF A FEW LATE AFTN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EVEN A LONE TSTM JUST WEST OF ST
GEORGE. A FEW SMALL RETURNS ON THE RADAR PERSIST AT THIS TIME NEAR
LAKE POWELL WESTWARD TOWARDS KANAB AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EVE IN THE FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST THRU SAT IN THE
NEW 00Z NAM THEN THE HIGH RECENTERS OVER SRN CO SAT NIGHT AND THE
FLOW OVER THE CWA FLIPS TO SWLY ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH ON SUN WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH BASED
CONVECTION.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO MAKE LOW POPS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR THIS EVE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302208 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED MENTION OF TSTMS TO ABOUT THE SRN 1/4 OF
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE MOISTURE
OVER SRN UTAH HAS SET OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS OVER WASHINGTON CO AND
NEAR LAKE POWELL THAT ARE NOT TIED TO THE TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND A BIT THROUGH EARLY EVE THEN TEND TO DIMINISH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S CONTINUES TO SEEP NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ/WILENSKY
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302208 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED MENTION OF TSTMS TO ABOUT THE SRN 1/4 OF
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE MOISTURE
OVER SRN UTAH HAS SET OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS OVER WASHINGTON CO AND
NEAR LAKE POWELL THAT ARE NOT TIED TO THE TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND A BIT THROUGH EARLY EVE THEN TEND TO DIMINISH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S CONTINUES TO SEEP NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ/WILENSKY
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 302208 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED MENTION OF TSTMS TO ABOUT THE SRN 1/4 OF
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE MOISTURE
OVER SRN UTAH HAS SET OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS OVER WASHINGTON CO AND
NEAR LAKE POWELL THAT ARE NOT TIED TO THE TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND A BIT THROUGH EARLY EVE THEN TEND TO DIMINISH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S CONTINUES TO SEEP NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ/WILENSKY
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 302208 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED MENTION OF TSTMS TO ABOUT THE SRN 1/4 OF
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE MOISTURE
OVER SRN UTAH HAS SET OFF A FEW SMALL CELLS OVER WASHINGTON CO AND
NEAR LAKE POWELL THAT ARE NOT TIED TO THE TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EXPAND A BIT THROUGH EARLY EVE THEN TEND TO DIMINISH.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S CONTINUES TO SEEP NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ/WILENSKY
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302107
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
307 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302107
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
307 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND NEVADA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS LIFTED PWATS ABOVE 1.0" OVER AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER FURTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS
SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY TURNS FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE EC AND GFS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION. WHILE THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND INCREASING POPS
SOMEWHAT...THE EC SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PHASING
OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE EC SOLUTIONS
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT WHEREAS THE GFS BUILDS A
RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD. BOTH CASES SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND AID IN CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THAT TIME OWING TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TUESDAY ALLOWING BOTH A
FURTHER DRYING TREND AND A NET INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301453
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
853 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA...LEADING TO
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWAT EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH VALUES LESS THAN 0.5" OVER THE NORTHERN 3/4
OF THE STATE AND VALUE GREATER THAN 1.0" OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS A GRADUAL ICNREASE IN PWAT OVER THE SOUTH
TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA...BUT INCREASES IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY. NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION...SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED. CONSIDERING ALL
THESE FACTORS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z THEN BACK TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301453
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
853 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA...LEADING TO
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWAT EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH VALUES LESS THAN 0.5" OVER THE NORTHERN 3/4
OF THE STATE AND VALUE GREATER THAN 1.0" OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS A GRADUAL ICNREASE IN PWAT OVER THE SOUTH
TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA...BUT INCREASES IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY. NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION...SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED. CONSIDERING ALL
THESE FACTORS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z THEN BACK TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301453
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
853 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA...LEADING TO
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWAT EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH VALUES LESS THAN 0.5" OVER THE NORTHERN 3/4
OF THE STATE AND VALUE GREATER THAN 1.0" OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS A GRADUAL ICNREASE IN PWAT OVER THE SOUTH
TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA...BUT INCREASES IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY. NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION...SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED. CONSIDERING ALL
THESE FACTORS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z THEN BACK TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301453
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
853 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND NEVADA...LEADING TO
RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWAT EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH VALUES LESS THAN 0.5" OVER THE NORTHERN 3/4
OF THE STATE AND VALUE GREATER THAN 1.0" OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS A GRADUAL ICNREASE IN PWAT OVER THE SOUTH
TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA...BUT INCREASES IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY. NO SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICAL
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION...SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN UNORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED. CONSIDERING ALL
THESE FACTORS...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z THEN BACK TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301003
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY
WHILE TO THE SOUTH THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE PWS COMING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS INCREASE IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO MOISTURE ALOFT ABOVE 400MB. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA TOWARDS THE UTAH BORDER BY LATE
TODAY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH NEAR LAKE POWELL BY FRIDAY SO
KEPT SOME MEAGER POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW ABOUT 600MB
...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM ABOUT GARFIELD COUNTY NORTH AND
WEST. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TODAY AND FOR
THAT MATTER FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN BUT INSTEAD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM
ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM 2-3 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THE 700MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PLACES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE EXTRA CLOUD COVER COULD
INHIBIT STRONG WARMING.

SATURDAY THE MOISTURE INCHES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT STILL NOT
IMPRESSED AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 600MB ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB PEAK ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BUT WILL
REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA...BUT THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. GFS SHIFTS RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...
FACILITATING A NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY. ECMWF ELONGATES
RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING A
MORE WESTERLY...DRIER FLOW. ECMWF DOES SEEM TO BE ERRATIC...LOCKING
ON TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND DEEPENING THEM WITH TIME. GIVEN
LITTLE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THAT ARE GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS...WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION.
THUS...WILL KEEP EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DURING
PERIOD.

WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
INDICATE LESS COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z THIS MORNING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 17Z. NO OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE UPSTAIRS AND THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT ORGANIZED SYSTEM
OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO GET AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO FOR
THE TIME BEING EXPECT DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND SETTING IN TUESDAY. ALONG WITH DRYING...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS
BY THEN ANY HOLD OVER LIGHTNING STRIKE STARTS MAY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SPREAD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301003
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY
WHILE TO THE SOUTH THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE PWS COMING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS INCREASE IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO MOISTURE ALOFT ABOVE 400MB. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA TOWARDS THE UTAH BORDER BY LATE
TODAY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH NEAR LAKE POWELL BY FRIDAY SO
KEPT SOME MEAGER POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW ABOUT 600MB
...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM ABOUT GARFIELD COUNTY NORTH AND
WEST. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TODAY AND FOR
THAT MATTER FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN BUT INSTEAD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM
ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM 2-3 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THE 700MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PLACES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE EXTRA CLOUD COVER COULD
INHIBIT STRONG WARMING.

SATURDAY THE MOISTURE INCHES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT STILL NOT
IMPRESSED AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 600MB ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB PEAK ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BUT WILL
REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA...BUT THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. GFS SHIFTS RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...
FACILITATING A NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY. ECMWF ELONGATES
RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING A
MORE WESTERLY...DRIER FLOW. ECMWF DOES SEEM TO BE ERRATIC...LOCKING
ON TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND DEEPENING THEM WITH TIME. GIVEN
LITTLE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THAT ARE GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS...WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION.
THUS...WILL KEEP EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DURING
PERIOD.

WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
INDICATE LESS COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z THIS MORNING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 17Z. NO OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE UPSTAIRS AND THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT ORGANIZED SYSTEM
OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO GET AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO FOR
THE TIME BEING EXPECT DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND SETTING IN TUESDAY. ALONG WITH DRYING...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS
BY THEN ANY HOLD OVER LIGHTNING STRIKE STARTS MAY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SPREAD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301003
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY
WHILE TO THE SOUTH THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE PWS COMING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS INCREASE IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO MOISTURE ALOFT ABOVE 400MB. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA TOWARDS THE UTAH BORDER BY LATE
TODAY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH NEAR LAKE POWELL BY FRIDAY SO
KEPT SOME MEAGER POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW ABOUT 600MB
...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM ABOUT GARFIELD COUNTY NORTH AND
WEST. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TODAY AND FOR
THAT MATTER FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN BUT INSTEAD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM
ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM 2-3 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THE 700MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PLACES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE EXTRA CLOUD COVER COULD
INHIBIT STRONG WARMING.

SATURDAY THE MOISTURE INCHES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT STILL NOT
IMPRESSED AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 600MB ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB PEAK ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BUT WILL
REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA...BUT THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. GFS SHIFTS RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...
FACILITATING A NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY. ECMWF ELONGATES
RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING A
MORE WESTERLY...DRIER FLOW. ECMWF DOES SEEM TO BE ERRATIC...LOCKING
ON TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND DEEPENING THEM WITH TIME. GIVEN
LITTLE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THAT ARE GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS...WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION.
THUS...WILL KEEP EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DURING
PERIOD.

WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
INDICATE LESS COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z THIS MORNING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 17Z. NO OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE UPSTAIRS AND THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT ORGANIZED SYSTEM
OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO GET AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO FOR
THE TIME BEING EXPECT DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND SETTING IN TUESDAY. ALONG WITH DRYING...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS
BY THEN ANY HOLD OVER LIGHTNING STRIKE STARTS MAY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SPREAD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301003
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AXIS THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY
WHILE TO THE SOUTH THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE PWS COMING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS INCREASE IS DUE
PRIMARILY TO MOISTURE ALOFT ABOVE 400MB. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA TOWARDS THE UTAH BORDER BY LATE
TODAY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH NEAR LAKE POWELL BY FRIDAY SO
KEPT SOME MEAGER POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER
DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW ABOUT 600MB
...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM ABOUT GARFIELD COUNTY NORTH AND
WEST. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM TODAY AND FOR
THAT MATTER FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN BUT INSTEAD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM
ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS WARM 2-3 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THE 700MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ACROSS THE
SOUTH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PLACES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WHERE EXTRA CLOUD COVER COULD
INHIBIT STRONG WARMING.

SATURDAY THE MOISTURE INCHES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT STILL NOT
IMPRESSED AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 600MB ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB PEAK ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BUT WILL
REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA...BUT THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. GFS SHIFTS RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD...ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...
FACILITATING A NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY. ECMWF ELONGATES
RIDGE TO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING A
MORE WESTERLY...DRIER FLOW. ECMWF DOES SEEM TO BE ERRATIC...LOCKING
ON TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND DEEPENING THEM WITH TIME. GIVEN
LITTLE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THAT ARE GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH DETERMINISTIC GFS...WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION.
THUS...WILL KEEP EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING AT OR BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DURING
PERIOD.

WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
INDICATE LESS COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z THIS MORNING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 17Z. NO OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE UPSTAIRS AND THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT ORGANIZED SYSTEM
OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO GET AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SO FOR
THE TIME BEING EXPECT DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND SETTING IN TUESDAY. ALONG WITH DRYING...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE FUELS STATUS
BY THEN ANY HOLD OVER LIGHTNING STRIKE STARTS MAY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO SPREAD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300245
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
845 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED ELONGATED
AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS MOISTURE HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE NORTH
OF THE AXIS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON SOUTHERN UT...WHILE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS
A RESULT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS GENERALLY DRY.

WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COOLING TREND.

GOING OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN
03 AND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300245
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
845 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED ELONGATED
AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS MOISTURE HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE NORTH
OF THE AXIS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON SOUTHERN UT...WHILE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS
A RESULT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS GENERALLY DRY.

WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COOLING TREND.

GOING OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN
03 AND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 292140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST SHIFT OF THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW A MODEST SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA
COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ AND A
LITTLE OF THIS IS BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AT MID
LEVELS.

THE AIRMASS WARMING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP NORTHWARD MAINLY AT MID LEVELS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS STAYING FAIRLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR
SERN UT AS A SMALL LOW DRIFTS OUT OF AZ THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
FAR SERN UT ON FRI.

THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO
THE FAR SERN CWA THU AFTN AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRI. MOST OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. THE FAR SERN CWA COULD SEE WETTER STORMS WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A NET NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SAID SHIFT
WILL ALLOW THE MORE MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PINNED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UT/AZ BORDER TO ADVECT NORTH/NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL STREAMLINES BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ORIENTED. INCREASING
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING
FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF RETURN FLOW WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF BECAME QUITE
BULLISH WITH ONCE SUCH FEATURE OWING TO HIGHER AND MORE AREALLY
EXPANSIVE QPF DURING THAT TIME. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING THIS
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT CHANGE POPS OR TEMPS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BE BOTH WETTER AND MUCH COOLER COME
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE MOISTURE SURGE...BUFKIT PROFILES PORTRAY THE MORE
ELEVATED PWAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORT MORE OF A LIGHTER RAIN/GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION
VERSUS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
EVOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PUNCH INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THIS AS YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TRANSITIONS OUT OF CENTRAL BRITCOL SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACNW.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03-04Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO FAIRLY LOW VALUES
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLOPE DRIVEN
AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP CLEARING INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 291522
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
922 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST A
LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO START TO DRIFT
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS STATES WEST
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NRN CA COAST. MOISTURE IS POOLED TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE OVER AZ BUT WILL TEND TO MOVE WWD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PREVENTS IT FROM GETTING VERY FAR NORTH.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMING WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING TODAY THROUGH THU.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THRU FRI AND
MOISTURE WILL SEEP NORTHWARD. THIS HAPPENS MAINLY ALOFT AS THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A NLY COMPONENT OR IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A SMALL LOW OVER AZ BY
TOMORROW MORNING THAT DRIFTS THRU THE RIDGE AND ACROSS FAR SERN UT
ON FRI. THIS WOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO THE SRN CWA
THU AFTN INTO FRI AND MAINLY THE SERN PORTION.

THE AREA THEN DRIES A LITTLE ON SAT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CREEPING
UP ALONG THE NV BORDER.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z THEN BECOME PREVAILING
NORTHERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 290959
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE
THURSDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO AND OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 9C THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 14C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...MORE
THAN LIKELY INDICATING THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE MICROBURST WINDS RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMPROVE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF MUCH OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...ALTHOUGH PWS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS AT MID
LEVELS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND FRONT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE NOT SHOWING UP BELOW 500 MB AND LIFTED
INDICES REMAINING POSITIVE AS WELL. LEFT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE UINTAS FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL
EVEN HAPPEN THERE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THE PWS COME UP OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH AND LIFTED INDICES LOWER
BELOW 1. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF MINIMAL POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY SO THERE MAY BE MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS THEN ANY THREAT OF
RAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS TIME HEIGHTS
SHOWING MOST MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGHER PWS IS AT HIGH
LEVELS AND NOT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE KEEPING THE POPS RATHER
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD WELL JUSTIFIED. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME AS H7
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT +16 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FACTOR
THEY MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL WILL
BE CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
OF THE DISTRICT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THURSDAY...SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY. THIS THREAT
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE SURGE AND IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUTHWOLF/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 290959
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
359 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE
THURSDAY AND THEN SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO AND OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 9C THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 14C BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...MORE
THAN LIKELY INDICATING THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE MICROBURST WINDS RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN. THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMPROVE A BIT FRIDAY...BUT STILL
EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO HEAD OFF MUCH OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...ALTHOUGH PWS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS AT MID
LEVELS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND FRONT AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THESE AREAS AS MOISTURE NOT SHOWING UP BELOW 500 MB AND LIFTED
INDICES REMAINING POSITIVE AS WELL. LEFT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE UINTAS FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL
EVEN HAPPEN THERE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA THE PWS COME UP OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH AND LIFTED INDICES LOWER
BELOW 1. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF MINIMAL POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY SO THERE MAY BE MORE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS THEN ANY THREAT OF
RAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BUT ONCE
AGAIN NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS TIME HEIGHTS
SHOWING MOST MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGHER PWS IS AT HIGH
LEVELS AND NOT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE KEEPING THE POPS RATHER
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD WELL JUSTIFIED. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME AS H7
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT +16 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FACTOR
THEY MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL WILL
BE CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO MOST
OF THE DISTRICT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THURSDAY...SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WHICH MAY PROMOTE
THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY. THIS THREAT
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE SURGE AND IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUTHWOLF/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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