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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281712
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM IT IS
LINGERING OVER NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW
SHOWERS...CENTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE GREAT SALT
LAKE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. UPDATED THE FORECAST
EARLIER TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

BRIEF RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE AXIS WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW DEEP
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WITH GFS FORECASTED PWS AS
HIGH AS 0.6 FOR FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...UP TO THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS WARM WITH 700 MB
TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7K
FT AGL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ABOVE 7K FT AGL BY 23-00Z.. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281712
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING...BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM IT IS
LINGERING OVER NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS RESULTING IN A FEW
SHOWERS...CENTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE GREAT SALT
LAKE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. UPDATED THE FORECAST
EARLIER TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

BRIEF RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE AXIS WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW DEEP
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WITH GFS FORECASTED PWS AS
HIGH AS 0.6 FOR FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...UP TO THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS WARM WITH 700 MB
TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE...KEEPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7K
FT AGL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ABOVE 7K FT AGL BY 23-00Z.. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281113
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
413 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UTAH TODAY.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH LIFTED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS WY. ONE
LAST MINOR SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS ROTATING
THROUGH NORTHERN UT HELPING TO ENHANCE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION HOLD ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT OWING IN LARGE PART TO CLOUD COVER. 700MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST AT NEAR -6C THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH EVEN WITH THE
VERY WARM START WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNAL SWING WITH MAX
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CEILING IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT ASSUMING SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA
COASTLINE LATE THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MEANDERS INLAND AND ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED OFF THE MX COASTLINE...AND THIS
TAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FEEDING RICH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND ENTRAINING INTO THIS SYSTEM.

A FAIRLY PROLONGUED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TYPICALLY THESE SCENARIOS IN LATE JANUARY WOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE PRECEDING
THE SYSTEM. P-TYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENT WITH FAIRLY HIGH DENSITY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UT. THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THIS
MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY RIDGING ON THE
BACK SIDE WILL BRING AND END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...WITH FURTHER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION
OF THE LATE WEEK TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST...THIS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE HOWEVER
WITH H7 TEMPS HOVERING NEAR -3 C ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THEREAFTER /FOR NOW/
THROUGH MIDWEEK REGARDING A FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE MON NIGHT AS
EJECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE PACNW STATES
TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...THIS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION NEAR 130 WEST. SAID RIDGE AMPLIFICATION COULD ALSO AID
WHATS LEFT OF THE PARENT TROUGH TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
MARKED COOL DOWN AND SOME PRECIP TO NAMELY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
WITHIN CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE AND
REMNANT FORCING FROM TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THESE LATEST GLOBAL RUNS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF
MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN FOR A FEW BEFORE NUDGING POPS
ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL CONCERN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT KSLC...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 7
KFT THROUGH 19Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THESE CIGS RAISE ABOVE 7 KFT OR SCATTER OUT BEFORE THIS
TIME.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 13Z. A TYPICALY
DIURNAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281113
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
413 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UTAH TODAY.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH LIFTED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS WY. ONE
LAST MINOR SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS ROTATING
THROUGH NORTHERN UT HELPING TO ENHANCE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION HOLD ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT OWING IN LARGE PART TO CLOUD COVER. 700MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST AT NEAR -6C THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH EVEN WITH THE
VERY WARM START WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH DIURNAL SWING WITH MAX
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CEILING IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT ASSUMING SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA
COASTLINE LATE THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY MEANDERS INLAND AND ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED OFF THE MX COASTLINE...AND THIS
TAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FEEDING RICH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND ENTRAINING INTO THIS SYSTEM.

A FAIRLY PROLONGUED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TYPICALLY THESE SCENARIOS IN LATE JANUARY WOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH THE ABSENCE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE PRECEDING
THE SYSTEM. P-TYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENT WITH FAIRLY HIGH DENSITY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UT. THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THIS
MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND AS SUCH HAVE LEFT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHEAST SATURDAY RIDGING ON THE
BACK SIDE WILL BRING AND END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...WITH FURTHER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION
OF THE LATE WEEK TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST...THIS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE HOWEVER
WITH H7 TEMPS HOVERING NEAR -3 C ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THEREAFTER /FOR NOW/
THROUGH MIDWEEK REGARDING A FLATTENING OF THIS RIDGE MON NIGHT AS
EJECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE PACNW STATES
TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...THIS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION NEAR 130 WEST. SAID RIDGE AMPLIFICATION COULD ALSO AID
WHATS LEFT OF THE PARENT TROUGH TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
MARKED COOL DOWN AND SOME PRECIP TO NAMELY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
WITHIN CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE AND
REMNANT FORCING FROM TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THESE LATEST GLOBAL RUNS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NOW...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF
MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN FOR A FEW BEFORE NUDGING POPS
ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL CONCERN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT KSLC...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 7
KFT THROUGH 19Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THESE CIGS RAISE ABOVE 7 KFT OR SCATTER OUT BEFORE THIS
TIME.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL LIKELY SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 13Z. A TYPICALY
DIURNAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280540 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1039 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH IMPACTS MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST UTAH REMAIN ACTIVE AT MID-EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. DYNAMIC LIFT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE IN PLAY HERE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPARENT
VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH. CURRENT TIMING WOULD HAVE THIS
CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN UTAH SOMETIME AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN IDAHO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE AIR MASS UP TO AROUND 700MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A
RAPID EXPANSION OF MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO UTAH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE.
A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL PHASE WITH A LOW-LATITUDE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INLAND THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL FOR A TIME HAVE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL STREAM NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UTAH THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP COULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE MOISTURE
SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH
INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MID-LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE LIGHT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 05Z-06Z. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO NORTH WINDS AS THEY PASS NEAR THE
KSLC TERMINAL...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAZE
OVER THE GSL MAY DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL AND BRING MVFR VSBYS IN
BRIEFLY THROUGH 06Z.

A SECOND TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET WITH SHOWERS AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 4000 FEET
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280540 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1039 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH IMPACTS MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST UTAH REMAIN ACTIVE AT MID-EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. DYNAMIC LIFT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE IN PLAY HERE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPARENT
VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH. CURRENT TIMING WOULD HAVE THIS
CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN UTAH SOMETIME AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN IDAHO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE AIR MASS UP TO AROUND 700MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A
RAPID EXPANSION OF MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO UTAH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE.
A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL PHASE WITH A LOW-LATITUDE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INLAND THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL FOR A TIME HAVE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL STREAM NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UTAH THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP COULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE MOISTURE
SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH
INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MID-LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE LIGHT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 05Z-06Z. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO NORTH WINDS AS THEY PASS NEAR THE
KSLC TERMINAL...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAZE
OVER THE GSL MAY DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL AND BRING MVFR VSBYS IN
BRIEFLY THROUGH 06Z.

A SECOND TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET WITH SHOWERS AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 4000 FEET
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280417
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
917 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH IMPACTS MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST UTAH REMAIN ACTIVE AT MID-EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PRODUCED A CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. DYNAMIC LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO
BE IN PLAY HERE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN APPARENT VORTICITY
MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH. CURRENT TIMING WOULD HAVE THIS CURRENT
ROUND OF SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN UTAH SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FAST ON THE HEELS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN IDAHO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE AIR MASS UP TO AROUND 700MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND UNSTABLE AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A
RAPID EXPANSION OF MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO UTAH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE.
A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING AWAY FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL PHASE WITH A LOW-LATITUDE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
WEST COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INLAND THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL FOR A TIME HAVE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL STREAM NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF UTAH THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP COULD BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE MOISTURE
SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH
INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MID-LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE LIGHT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 05Z-06Z. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO NORTH WINDS AS THEY PASS NEAR THE
KSLC TERMINAL...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. HAZE
OVER THE GSL MAY DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL AND BRING MVFR VSBYS IN
BRIEFLY THROUGH 06Z.

A SECOND TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET WITH SHOWERS AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 4000 FEET
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST
UTAH BEFORE TURNING EAST. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ENDED UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IN ITS WAKE PARTIAL CLEARING OF
SKIES WAS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 700MB WINDS 25-30KT PRODUCED LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS. THE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE ALLOWED BETTER MIXING IN
THESE AREAS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S AS A
RESULT...AND SALT LAKE CITY MANAGED TO BREAK ITS RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS ALREADY WRAPPED
BACK AROUND TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER IDAHO AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED 500MB COLD POOL DOWN TO
-22C SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 6Z. EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH THIS COLD POOL TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
LOOK TO LINGER IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOMORROW
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR 6KFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR GIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS...LOW
EXPECTED QPF AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW RATIOS.

A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO UTAH. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SO WILL THE
INSTABILITY. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS WELL.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE EXITING SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A MORE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. EC/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK WAVE POSSIBLY IMPACTING
NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY...WITH THE EC FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT ON MONDAY...SOONER THAN THAN GFS. THIS WOULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN PRECIP FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST 5F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL FOR A
TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 08Z WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
01Z.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST
UTAH BEFORE TURNING EAST. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ENDED UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IN ITS WAKE PARTIAL CLEARING OF
SKIES WAS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 700MB WINDS 25-30KT PRODUCED LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS. THE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE ALLOWED BETTER MIXING IN
THESE AREAS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S AS A
RESULT...AND SALT LAKE CITY MANAGED TO BREAK ITS RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS ALREADY WRAPPED
BACK AROUND TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER IDAHO AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED 500MB COLD POOL DOWN TO
-22C SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 6Z. EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH THIS COLD POOL TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
LOOK TO LINGER IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOMORROW
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR 6KFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR GIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS...LOW
EXPECTED QPF AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW RATIOS.

A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO UTAH. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SO WILL THE
INSTABILITY. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS WELL.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE EXITING SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A MORE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. EC/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK WAVE POSSIBLY IMPACTING
NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY...WITH THE EC FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT ON MONDAY...SOONER THAN THAN GFS. THIS WOULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN PRECIP FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST 5F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL FOR A
TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 08Z WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
01Z.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271713
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY. A BAND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FIRED UP ALONG THE
700MB BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTED SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY HAS SINCE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS
SOURCED EARLIER IN THE STORMS EVOLUTION HAS NOW WRAPPED AROUND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WELL WEST OF UTAH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION BAND HAS BECOME MUCH MORE BROKEN UP NOW THAT
IT HAS REACHED NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING RAP/HRRR WHICH HAVE TRENDED LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH PRECIP
IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. WHILE SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MAY
STILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY...THIS WILL BE SPOTTY SO
HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED SKY
COVER AND ADDED SOME WIND WORDING FOR WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 25-30KT H7 WINDS PER MODELS.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AS A RESULT...MOSTLY OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...THAT IS...OVER IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000FT SO ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT...MAY
REACH THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND ALSO SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

INVERSIONS NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN UP BY THIS STORM AS H7
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4 TO -5C BUT SHOULD AS LEAST
WEAKEN. AFTERNOON MAXES TODAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AND
TOMORROW...MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271713
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY. A BAND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FIRED UP ALONG THE
700MB BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTED SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY HAS SINCE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...AND THE MOISTURE THAT WAS
SOURCED EARLIER IN THE STORMS EVOLUTION HAS NOW WRAPPED AROUND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WELL WEST OF UTAH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION BAND HAS BECOME MUCH MORE BROKEN UP NOW THAT
IT HAS REACHED NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODELS
INCLUDING RAP/HRRR WHICH HAVE TRENDED LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH PRECIP
IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. WHILE SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MAY
STILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY...THIS WILL BE SPOTTY SO
HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED SKY
COVER AND ADDED SOME WIND WORDING FOR WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 25-30KT H7 WINDS PER MODELS.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AS A RESULT...MOSTLY OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...THAT IS...OVER IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000FT SO ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT VERY LIGHT...MAY
REACH THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND ALSO SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

INVERSIONS NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN UP BY THIS STORM AS H7
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL TO AROUND -4 TO -5C BUT SHOULD AS LEAST
WEAKEN. AFTERNOON MAXES TODAY WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AND
TOMORROW...MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
501 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURS)...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ/SOUTHEAST CA...AND HELPING TO FORCE AN ARC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHWEST UT. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WHILE LIKELY DIMINISHING WITH
TIME AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN UT LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -3C RANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN LIQUID ACROSS ALL VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL REMAINING MINOR.

THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY LIFT UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT SAID...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT
ACROSS NORTHERN UT TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN REMAINING MINOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY
PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THIS WAVE BRINGING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS 700MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO THE -5C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY NOT COMPLETELY
MIX OUT ALL VALLEYS...BUT DO EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN AIR QUALITY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THU)...06Z GFS JUST VIEWED HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF REGARDING POSITIONING/EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT SPLITTING FEATURE POISED TO
TAKE AIM TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST /LEFT OVER
FROM THE SHORT TERM TROUGH/ LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN UTAH BORDER OR JUST WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANCE OF
THIS RELATES MOST CLOSELY TO LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE EXTENDING FROM ITS NORTH AND EAST LEADING UP TO THAT TIME ON
THU.

CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH ALONG AND
BENEATH THIS ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION...BUT IF FUTURE RUNS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY POPS REMAIN A FAIR BIT LOW ACROSS THOSE REGIONS AS BOTH
FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN UP AND GRADUALLY CARVE SOUTH/EAST TOWARDS AND
ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE DEFORMATION WILL
FOLLOW SUITE...THIS FOCUSING PRECIP MORE AND MORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ASSUMING THIS HOLDS TRUE...WILL
FINALLY SEE A MUCH NEEDED MODERATE PRECIP PRODUCER ACROSS NAMELY
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THAT TIME.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING A PATTERN SHIFT TO ENSUE THEREAFTER AS A
MORE DEFINED BELT OF WESTERLIES PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE
NEXT WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THIS BELT IS APPARENT IN
GUIDANCE...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAIL REMAINS MINIMAL AT
BEST THAT FAR OUT...OPTED TO TREND POPS TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEY HAZE WILL AT TIMES RESTRICT SURFACE VISIBILITY AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...A PERIOD OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR  AT TIMES IN THE 17-21Z AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK BUT
MOIST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IS IN THIS WINDOW AS WELL AS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
SKIRTS NORTHERN UTAH.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 271201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
501 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURS)...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ/SOUTHEAST CA...AND HELPING TO FORCE AN ARC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/SOUTHWEST UT. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WHILE LIKELY DIMINISHING WITH
TIME AS IT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN UT LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -3C RANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN LIQUID ACROSS ALL VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL REMAINING MINOR.

THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY LIFT UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT SAID...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT
ACROSS NORTHERN UT TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN REMAINING MINOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY
PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THIS WAVE BRINGING A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS 700MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL INTO THE -5C RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY NOT COMPLETELY
MIX OUT ALL VALLEYS...BUT DO EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN AIR QUALITY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THU)...06Z GFS JUST VIEWED HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF REGARDING POSITIONING/EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT SPLITTING FEATURE POISED TO
TAKE AIM TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST /LEFT OVER
FROM THE SHORT TERM TROUGH/ LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN UTAH BORDER OR JUST WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANCE OF
THIS RELATES MOST CLOSELY TO LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE EXTENDING FROM ITS NORTH AND EAST LEADING UP TO THAT TIME ON
THU.

CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH ALONG AND
BENEATH THIS ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION...BUT IF FUTURE RUNS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY POPS REMAIN A FAIR BIT LOW ACROSS THOSE REGIONS AS BOTH
FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN UP AND GRADUALLY CARVE SOUTH/EAST TOWARDS AND
ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE DEFORMATION WILL
FOLLOW SUITE...THIS FOCUSING PRECIP MORE AND MORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ASSUMING THIS HOLDS TRUE...WILL
FINALLY SEE A MUCH NEEDED MODERATE PRECIP PRODUCER ACROSS NAMELY
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THAT TIME.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING A PATTERN SHIFT TO ENSUE THEREAFTER AS A
MORE DEFINED BELT OF WESTERLIES PUNCHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE
NEXT WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THIS BELT IS APPARENT IN
GUIDANCE...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAIL REMAINS MINIMAL AT
BEST THAT FAR OUT...OPTED TO TREND POPS TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEY HAZE WILL AT TIMES RESTRICT SURFACE VISIBILITY AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...A PERIOD OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR  AT TIMES IN THE 17-21Z AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK BUT
MOIST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IS IN THIS WINDOW AS WELL AS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
SKIRTS NORTHERN UTAH.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 270426 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...CORRECTED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT ON TUESDAY.
THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD AIR CREATE A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASED DYNAMIC LIFT.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND LESS ORGANIZED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AS THE TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A
REJUVENATION OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS AT
THIS POINT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. SUSPECT THAT
THE GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE WEAK DYNAMICS
WILL BE WORKING ON MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE THERMAL SUPPORT TO GENERATE DECENT LIFT.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY
WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL AREA BY AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
IN PRECIP WILL BE AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270426 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...CORRECTED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT ON TUESDAY.
THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD AIR CREATE A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASED DYNAMIC LIFT.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND LESS ORGANIZED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AS THE TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A
REJUVENATION OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS AT
THIS POINT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. SUSPECT THAT
THE GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE WEAK DYNAMICS
WILL BE WORKING ON MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE THERMAL SUPPORT TO GENERATE DECENT LIFT.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY
WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL AREA BY AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
IN PRECIP WILL BE AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 270412
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
912 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT ON TUESDAY.
THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD AIR CREATE A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASED DYNAMIC LIFT.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND LESS ORGANIZED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AS THE TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A
REJUVENATION OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS AT
THIS POINT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. SUSPECT THAT
THE GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE WEAK DYNAMICS
WILL BE WORKING ON MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE THERMAL SUPPORT TO GENERATE DECENT LIFT.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY
WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF WEATHER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270412
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
912 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT ON TUESDAY.
THIS STORM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD AIR CREATE A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INCREASED DYNAMIC LIFT.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND LESS ORGANIZED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AS THE TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT A
REJUVENATION OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS AT
THIS POINT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. SUSPECT THAT
THE GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE WEAK DYNAMICS
WILL BE WORKING ON MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL ORIGIN AND WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE THERMAL SUPPORT TO GENERATE DECENT LIFT.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY
WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT
THE ONGOING FORECAST IN PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF WEATHER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 262308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOME
HAZE EVIDENT ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND
QUITE WARM UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H7 TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 7C
OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST STILL ON TRACK TO
EJECT INLAND TONIGHT...WITH OPEN-WAVE FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA AND INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. STORM CURRENTLY
TAPPING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA...BUT THIS MOISTURE TAP IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF AS THE STORM
APPROACHES UTAH. STILL...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BUT
WITH LOW QPF. THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS MORE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH DRIES OUT.

RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS CONSISTENT WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS OF THIS
STORM...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARMER THAN -6C THROUGHOUT
THE STORM. HIGH SNOW LEVELS...HIGH DENSITY SNOW AND LOW QPF RENDER
THIS A RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. OTHER THAN THE MINOR
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GRADUALLY
TREND DOWNWARD FROM THE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF LATE.

THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. GFS DOES EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY THROUGH UTAH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE EC/NAM/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE
MUCH DRIER FOR THAT PARTICULAR TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER CONSENSUS BY KEEPING LITTLE TO NO POPS OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS
EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT THE ONGOING FORECAST IN
PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF WEATHER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SCHOENING/KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 262308
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOME
HAZE EVIDENT ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND
QUITE WARM UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H7 TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 7C
OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST STILL ON TRACK TO
EJECT INLAND TONIGHT...WITH OPEN-WAVE FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA AND INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW. STORM CURRENTLY
TAPPING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA...BUT THIS MOISTURE TAP IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF AS THE STORM
APPROACHES UTAH. STILL...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BUT
WITH LOW QPF. THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS MORE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH DRIES OUT.

RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS CONSISTENT WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS OF THIS
STORM...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARMER THAN -6C THROUGHOUT
THE STORM. HIGH SNOW LEVELS...HIGH DENSITY SNOW AND LOW QPF RENDER
THIS A RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. OTHER THAN THE MINOR
PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GRADUALLY
TREND DOWNWARD FROM THE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF LATE.

THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. GFS DOES EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY THROUGH UTAH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE EC/NAM/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE
MUCH DRIER FOR THAT PARTICULAR TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER CONSENSUS BY KEEPING LITTLE TO NO POPS OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS
EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND UINTA COUNTY WY. HAVE SLIGHTLY RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL LEFT THE ONGOING FORECAST IN
PLACE.

PRECIP LOOKS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE THE LOW EXITS INTO
MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO UTAH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COOL AND
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER FROM THE NORTH.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. LOOKING BEYOND DAY
7...UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7
LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
NORM RECENTLY...WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BEING THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF WEATHER DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SCHOENING/KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG
STILL REPORTED IN THE CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAZE LAYER ALONG URBAN
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY.

AIRMASS VERY WARM ALOFT TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES 6-7C ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH...SLIGHTLY COOLER DOWN SOUTH. MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE
WILL BE QUITE WARM...AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE AS WELL DESPITE
INVERSIONS...SINCE SNOW COVER AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS PRETTY MUCH
NONEXISTENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CURRENTLY WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...EJECTING SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS UTAH TOMORROW AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE STORM IS FINDING A DECENT MOISTURE TAP
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE COME TOMORROW AND ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF EVENT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261137
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
437 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS UTAH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE
REGION REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...A LARGE SCALE REX
BLOCK...CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS UT
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA COAST...CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY PATCHY FOG NOTED AROUND THE BEAR LAKE AREA.

AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING 700MB TEMPS
TO SOAR NEAR 7C BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE ANTICIPATE TEMPS ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS TO RUN CLOSE TO SUNDAYS VALUES.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALLOWING THE BAJA LOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW HAS TAPPED INTO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS TAP WILL QUICKLY
SHUT OFF TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW REACHES THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE WAVE AND ERODING
MOISTURE FIELDS IT APPEARS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A WEAKENING ARC OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD INITIALLY INTO SOUTHWEST UT OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN UT
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE SLOWED PRECIP TIMING A BIT BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING.

WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
WITH 700MB TEMPS REMAINING IN THE -4 TO -5C RANGE SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP COMING NORTH OF I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THU)...00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK...BUT DETAILS
DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT OF THE RETURN OF A REX BLOCK ACROSS
THE WEST. WHERE...AND TO SOME EXTENT WHEN...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGIONS REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR REGARDING AREAL EXTENT AND SIGNIFICANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP WILL ONCE AGAIN
OCCUR W/YET ANOTHER ORIGIN FROM THE ITCZ. MOISTURE IS NOT A PROBLEM
W/THIS SYSTEM RATHER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LOWS
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE A DICTATING FACTOR REGARDING BEST FORCING
OF A POTENTIALLY VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW CENTER
CLOSER TO THE SOCAL/WESTERN AZ BORDER AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACNW/BRITCOL REGION THAN THAT DEPICTED IN
THE GFS. THIS ALLOWS A MORE FOCUSED DEFORMATION ZONE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH THAT WILL SLOWLY PULL SOUTH AS THE LOW CENTER
TRANSITIONS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER EAST
W/RESULTANT QPF MORE PROLIFIC FROM SW COLORADO ON INTO FAR EASTERN
AZ AND POINTS EAST COINCIDENT W/BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT FOCUSED THERE.
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN DETAIL HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENT IN
EITHER MODEL SO NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LACKING IN EITHER
SOLUTION. THIS SAID...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HEALTHY PRECIP PRODUCER
WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT TRENDS
TOWARDS A REFINED BLEND BETWEEN THESE TWO. LIKELY WILL NOT SEE
IMPROVED CONSISTENCY UNTIL THE EARLY WEEK WAVE IN THE SHORT
TERM PASSES DOWNSTREAM.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS
THE REX TRANSITIONS OVERHEAD SATURDAY...THIS BRINGING AN END TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. A STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HAZE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HIGH END MVFR VIS AT TIMES OF LOW SUN ANGLE AND OR DURING THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 03Z. MVFR VIS IN HAZE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIKELY AFTER
03Z THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 260426
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
926 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CENTER OVER UTAH
MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY)...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CENTER ACROSS UTAH ON
MONDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
TAPPED BY THIS LOW WILL STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NOW OPEN WAVE
TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN WITH THE REMNANT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AND BRING THE LAST OF THE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.

WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORTED BY MODEST COOLING ALOFT AND A MOISTURE
SOURCE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS ALL SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING .40 TO .60 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ON QPFS...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WILL BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE EXITING
WEAK TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...IT APPEARS PRECIP
SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WED EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FOLLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING IN OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.
THE 12Z EC MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z
FRI AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY
SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN
SHIFTS IT SWD FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. URBAN HAZE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES UNTIL THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AT THE TERMINAL. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 252243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER THAN TYPICAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ONLY AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DENSE STRATUS AS OF 22Z...WITH SOME
PASSING CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH. TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH...AS THERE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONDAYS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. IN OTHER
WORDS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY.

AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
PACIFIC LOW BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...BUT
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE HIT-OR-MISS ACROSS UTAH IF THE MODELS TREND
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THIS WAVE.

THE LOW OPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEVADA...THEN
SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BY THIS
TIME...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET...AND
THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THU)...IT APPEARS PRECIP SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE NWD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z EC
MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z FRI AND
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY SOUTH
THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN SHIFTS IT SWD
FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 252243
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
343 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER THAN TYPICAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ONLY AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DENSE STRATUS AS OF 22Z...WITH SOME
PASSING CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH. TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH...AS THERE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONDAYS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO TODAY. IN OTHER
WORDS...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY.

AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
PACIFIC LOW BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE
WILL PRIMARILY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA...BUT
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MIGRATE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE HIT-OR-MISS ACROSS UTAH IF THE MODELS TREND
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THIS WAVE.

THE LOW OPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEVADA...THEN
SLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE MOST PRODUCTIVE PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BY THIS
TIME...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET...AND
THIS PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THU)...IT APPEARS PRECIP SHUTS DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF AND
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT WEAK LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ERN PAC BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CREATE DISAGREEMENT ON THE NWD
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z EC
MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY 12Z FRI AND
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THAT RETREATS SLOWLY SOUTH
THRU SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW SINKS S. THE GFS REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH
INITIALLY AND KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE FAR NORTH...THEN SHIFTS IT SWD
FASTER.

BOTH MODELS DO END UP WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE THREAT
OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z MON WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET A
FEW DAYS CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE
AND HEDGED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS THRU SUN. IF THE
EC IS RIGHT THERE MIGHT BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT.

THE OTHER ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SAT
MORNING. MAGNITUDE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOSED LOW IS BY
12Z SAT WITH THE FARTHER NORTH EC DEPICTING THE STRONGER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02-04Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...WILENSKY
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





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