Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KSLC 010834
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
234 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
GRADUALLY MODIFIES. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY
TO DAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE AN INTERESTING
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF HAS NOT CLIMBED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AS
SUCH HAVE LEFT ONLY TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TODAY...THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBOUNDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010834
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
234 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
GRADUALLY MODIFIES. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY
TO DAY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE AN INTERESTING
SCENARIO...THE ECMWF HAS NOT CLIMBED ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AS
SUCH HAVE LEFT ONLY TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOLER WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TODAY...THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBOUNDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010104
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PREVAILING WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-125KT
NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.2" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.7" NORTHWEST
VALLEYS.

DRY STABLE AIRMASS IN CONTROL WITH NO CONVECTIVE THREAT TONIGHT. IN
FACT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAST OF DIURNAL CUMULUS DECAYING OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE LOWERED SKY GRIDS TO INDICATE A CLEAR
NIGHT FOR MOST.

RAP INDICATES PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN AT MANY LOCATIONS THOUGH WILL HOLD A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COMBINATION OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS...SEEMED PRUDENT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO. HOWEVER...IT
WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
03Z AND 05Z AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 312141
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z...BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 312141
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z...BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311603
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EASED INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY NEAR A KCDC-KPUC LINE. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND SKIES
ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING. DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UT/ID BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE
FRONT. OBSERVED SOUNDING AT KSLC SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURE OF
+2C...COMPARED TO +12C AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...MAXES TODAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH LESS COOLING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST.

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND CAUSING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID SUNDAY
EVENING. THE EXIT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO NORTHERN UTAH. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311603
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EASED INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY NEAR A KCDC-KPUC LINE. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED AND SKIES
ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING. DESPITE SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UT/ID BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE
FRONT. OBSERVED SOUNDING AT KSLC SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURE OF
+2C...COMPARED TO +12C AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...MAXES TODAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED
YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH LESS COOLING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AT
BEST.

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND CAUSING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD
FRONT WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID SUNDAY
EVENING. THE EXIT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO NORTHERN UTAH. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311029
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY...AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN HAS PUSHED A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL UT EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST UT...WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO THE ID
BORDER REGION...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OWING TO A COMBINATION OF
JET DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEPER
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES...IS
GREATEST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ANTICIPATE THE PRECIP THREAT WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING IN
ADDITION TO THE WESTERN UINTAS/WASATCH RANGE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UT FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY...WHILE LITTLE
IF ANY CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
OF 12Z THURSDAY. THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH AXIS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IT ACROSS UTAH ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER UTAH ALLOWING FOR THE IMPORT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF THEN THE
GFS SOLUTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF VERIFYING AS THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH AUGUST. DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
LONGER RANGE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BEYOND
THURSDAY BUT COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE LEASE LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THEM REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEYS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH WHICH WILL AID IN
THE DRYING OF THE FUELS...ESPECIALLY THE FINE FUELS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310033
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
633 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH ONE DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE THE NEXT ONE UPSTREAM APPROACHES FROM
OREGON. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-130KT
CYCLONIC JET FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB
INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.5"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS TO 1.0" MOST OTHER
VALLEYS.

CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SHALLOW BEING IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS.
STILL...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR (40-50KTS EFFECTIVE SEHAR) ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND DYNAMICS OF APPRAOCHING DISTURBANCE AND LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICURARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

RAP 850-700MB STREAMLINES/SATURATED EQUIVULENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS ALL INDICATE THIS MORNINGS BOUNDARY NEAR A
WENDOVER TO GREEN RIVER LINE. THE COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPSTREAM WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO...SLATED TO REACH SLC AROUND
08Z. THE SOUTHERN BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO EASE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A KEKO-KSUN LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST UTAH AS THE
ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND NEVADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BUT THERE ARE NOW ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE THE INSTABILITY COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GOING POPS MAY EVEN BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AM
HESITANT TO LOWER THEM FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW. MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN
UTAH...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT ARE HOVERING JUST BELOW
CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS ALREADY STARTS TO DRY AT THAT POINT
SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO END SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EC BUT IT REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE GFS. THE PASSING SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHERLY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SPEEDS OUT OF THE NORTH GREATER THAN 7
KNOTS ARE NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT POSSIBLE UNDER
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TOMORROW ALLOWING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 310033
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
633 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH ONE DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE THE NEXT ONE UPSTREAM APPROACHES FROM
OREGON. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 75-130KT
CYCLONIC JET FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB
INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.5"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS TO 1.0" MOST OTHER
VALLEYS.

CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SHALLOW BEING IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS.
STILL...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR (40-50KTS EFFECTIVE SEHAR) ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND DYNAMICS OF APPRAOCHING DISTURBANCE AND LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICURARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

RAP 850-700MB STREAMLINES/SATURATED EQUIVULENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS ALL INDICATE THIS MORNINGS BOUNDARY NEAR A
WENDOVER TO GREEN RIVER LINE. THE COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPSTREAM WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO...SLATED TO REACH SLC AROUND
08Z. THE SOUTHERN BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO EASE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A KEKO-KSUN LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST UTAH AS THE
ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND NEVADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BUT THERE ARE NOW ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE THE INSTABILITY COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GOING POPS MAY EVEN BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AM
HESITANT TO LOWER THEM FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW. MAXES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN
UTAH...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT ARE HOVERING JUST BELOW
CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS ALREADY STARTS TO DRY AT THAT POINT
SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO END SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EC BUT IT REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE GFS. THE PASSING SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOST LIKELY SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHERLY BEFORE 06Z...BUT SPEEDS OUT OF THE NORTH GREATER THAN 7
KNOTS ARE NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT POSSIBLE UNDER
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TOMORROW ALLOWING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 302133
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A KEKO-KSUN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST UTAH AS THE
ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND NEVADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BUT THERE ARE NOW ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE THE INSTABILITY COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GOING POPS MAY EVEN BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AM
HESITANT TO LOWER THEM FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW. MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT ARE HOVERING
JUST BELOW CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS ALREADY STARTS TO DRY AT
THAT POINT SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO END SUNDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EC BUT IT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE GFS. THE PASSING SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE TIMING OF A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...WITH A
CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TOMORROW ALLOWING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 302133
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A KEKO-KSUN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST UTAH AS THE
ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND NEVADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BUT THERE ARE NOW ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE THE INSTABILITY COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GOING POPS MAY EVEN BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AM
HESITANT TO LOWER THEM FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW. MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT ARE HOVERING
JUST BELOW CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS ALREADY STARTS TO DRY AT
THAT POINT SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO END SUNDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EC BUT IT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE GFS. THE PASSING SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE TIMING OF A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...WITH A
CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TOMORROW ALLOWING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301631
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1031 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. SEEING A GOOD DEAL OF RADAR
ECHOES OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN UTAH BUT THE RADAR SIGNATURE AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS IS JUST ABOUT ALL VIRGA.

THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OUT AHEAD OF IT FOR A THREAT
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SOME THREAT OF MICROBURST WINDS WITH MOISTURE PRIMARILY MOVING
INTO MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE A LIMITED
FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THIS THREAT. INCREASING W/SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS 700 MB TEMPS DROP FROM ABOUT
+12C THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND +4C TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN
UTAH. AS A RESULT...MAXES TOMORROW SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 10F
BELOW VALUES OBSERVED TODAY...WELL BELOW CLIMO. THE FRONT IS STILL
PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW...SO COOLING WILL BE
LIMITED FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.

ONE LAST WAVE FROM THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SO FEEL THE
MAIN PRECIP THREAT ENDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 19-20Z SWITCHING
SURFACE WINDS TO A GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT GUSTS WILL APPROACH
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA OF 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTS AS WELL
WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
7K FEET THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301030
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
430 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY BASED ON THE SREF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE MOST MODELS CONFINE ANY QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS
HAVE LARGELY RESTRICTED POPS TO THESE AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH/WESTERN UINTAS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN
UT. AGAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH AMOUNTS
LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10...WILL COME ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-80...AND SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...WITH
ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT
FROM SATURDAYS FORECAST HIGHS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE BY TO
OUR EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY AND WARM FLOW BUT SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIDING
NORTHEAST IN THIS FLOW COULD SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC TRIES TO
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW THE EC FORECASTS
WHICH TAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS VERSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING AT THE TERMINAL BUT GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER WESTERN VALLEYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...FUELS REMAIN MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE FIRES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN DRY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 301030
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
430 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY BASED ON THE SREF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE MOST MODELS CONFINE ANY QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS
HAVE LARGELY RESTRICTED POPS TO THESE AREAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH/WESTERN UINTAS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NORTHERN
UT. AGAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH AMOUNTS
LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10...WILL COME ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-80...AND SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...WITH
ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT
FROM SATURDAYS FORECAST HIGHS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE BY TO
OUR EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY AND WARM FLOW BUT SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIDING
NORTHEAST IN THIS FLOW COULD SET OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC TRIES TO
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH KEEPS THE FLOW A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW THE EC FORECASTS
WHICH TAPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BOTTOM LINE HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS VERSES SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS LESS THAN A
15 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING AT THE TERMINAL BUT GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER WESTERN VALLEYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...FUELS REMAIN MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE FIRES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN DRY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN...A SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE
APPROACHING NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-85KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A SECOND CYCLONIC JET
OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.4" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 0.8" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE SHOWS COPIOUS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z KSLC RAOB...THOUGH
BOTH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND RAP INDICATE INSTABILITY WANES LATE
THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. STILL...APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET TO CONTEND WITH. THOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT CURRENT HRRR-
3KM RUN DOES NOT SHOW ANY CONVECTION AFTER MID EVENING. ELECTED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
WITH MAINLY THE MID LEVELS MOISTENING TONIGHT. EARLIER DEEPER
CONVECTION CERTAINLY DISPLAYED THIS THREAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND EVEN 1 SEVERE REPORT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT
DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO
RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUSTY SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 292222 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED POPS/QPF/SKY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ADDED MENTION OF CONVECTION TO SALT LAKE VALLEY...UTAH
COUNTY...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...UINTA BASIN AND CASTLE COUNTRY. NO
CHANGES BEYOND MIDNIGHT UNTIL GET A CHANCE TO DIG THROUGH THE DATA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUTFLOW FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGOWSKI
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 292144
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.



&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292144
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF UTAH...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT NOT REALLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST UTAH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE COVERED THE THREAT
WELL AND MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND +12C TO AS LOW
AS +4C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
COOLING WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH ALMOST
NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

ONE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH FULLY EXITS...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREE THAT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING
THE RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT BY THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CURBING THE WARMING
TREND.



&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z WITH A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHIFTING AS LATE AS 23Z OR 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. A
NET DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT
FUELS REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BUT
POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW. COOLER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK
FURTHER DRYING ALL AREAS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 291623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOR MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WARM...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OTHERWISE BENIGN.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT SHOULD BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP FROM AROUND +12C TODAY TO AS COLD AS +3C SUNDAY MORNING
PER LATEST GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MAXES UP TO 10F COOLER THAN
CLIMO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHIFTING AS LATE AS 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST LATE
TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOR MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WARM...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. A BIT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OTHERWISE BENIGN.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT SHOULD BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 700 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP FROM AROUND +12C TODAY TO AS COLD AS +3C SUNDAY MORNING
PER LATEST GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MAXES UP TO 10F COOLER THAN
CLIMO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THERE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHIFTING AS LATE AS 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities