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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 292239
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS UTAH ARE
GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE INTERACTING WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. ONE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE BACK EDGE YET TO PASS
THROUGH REGION...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A SECOND CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
UTAH AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS WAVE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND ANTICIPATE THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS DRIES OUT A
BIT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN UP NEAR AN INCH.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE THE ORGANIZED FORCING...AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY....ANTICIPATE ISOLATED VALLEY CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY. IN
ADDITION...STORMS IN SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTH WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWN DRAINAGE MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS
EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE STATE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH. ANTICIPATE A DRYING
TREND FOR THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONFINED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 02- 04Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WETTING
RAINFALL. THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 292239
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS UTAH ARE
GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE INTERACTING WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. ONE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE BACK EDGE YET TO PASS
THROUGH REGION...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A SECOND CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
UTAH AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. BEHIND THIS WAVE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND ANTICIPATE THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS DRIES OUT A
BIT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL REMAIN UP NEAR AN INCH.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE THE ORGANIZED FORCING...AS WAS THE
CASE TODAY....ANTICIPATE ISOLATED VALLEY CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY. IN
ADDITION...STORMS IN SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO MOVE SOUTH WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWN DRAINAGE MOVEMENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS
EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE STATE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH. ANTICIPATE A DRYING
TREND FOR THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONFINED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 02- 04Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WETTING
RAINFALL. THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 291637
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1037 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL INTERACT WITH
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
1.34 INCHES FROM THE 1200 UTC KSLC SOUNDING IS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST CIRCULATION CENTER..LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER
OPENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN UTAH IS RECEIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AREA WILL DESTABILIZE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
FLOW...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND A VERY MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MOST WESTERN
VALLEYS SEEING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S....WHILE
EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS IS WELL
COVERED IN CURRENT GRIDS AND ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
THERE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 17-18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AFTER 18Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY. FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AS WELL. A
SLOW DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION REMAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 291637
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1037 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL INTERACT WITH
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
1.34 INCHES FROM THE 1200 UTC KSLC SOUNDING IS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST CIRCULATION CENTER..LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER
OPENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN UTAH IS RECEIVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AREA WILL DESTABILIZE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED
FLOW...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND A VERY MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THIS UPDATE HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MOST WESTERN
VALLEYS SEEING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S....WHILE
EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS IS WELL
COVERED IN CURRENT GRIDS AND ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
THERE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 17-18Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AFTER 18Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT
TODAY. FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AS WELL. A
SLOW DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION REMAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291010
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL
IMPACT UTAH TODAY. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AT TIME...WHILE
THE SECOND CAN BE LOCATED IN RADAR ANIMATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
UTAH. THE MORE ACTIVE FEATURE IS THE NORTHERN ONE...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH...WILL PROBABLY NOT LEAVE THE STATE ENTIRELY AS THE REMNANT
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST IDAHO OR SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY.

THE OTHER FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST IS GENERATING FAR LESS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A WEAK
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. THE
DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IT
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING.

A MODEST DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
DRYING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. THE RESULTANT RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
UTAH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY WRINKLE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE WOULD
BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF UTAH. WITH LINGER MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A NEW SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO ORIGINATE OVER ARIZONA IN THE MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY TAP INTO SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND DRAG IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN FOCUSED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT AND SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. EXPECT MINIMAL DRYING TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY REMAINING VERY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN HIGH. A DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH
WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAINS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 291010
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL
IMPACT UTAH TODAY. ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AT TIME...WHILE
THE SECOND CAN BE LOCATED IN RADAR ANIMATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
UTAH. THE MORE ACTIVE FEATURE IS THE NORTHERN ONE...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH...WILL PROBABLY NOT LEAVE THE STATE ENTIRELY AS THE REMNANT
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST IDAHO OR SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY.

THE OTHER FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST IS GENERATING FAR LESS
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL CHANGE LATER
TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THIS CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A WEAK
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. THE
DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IT
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING.

A MODEST DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
DRYING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. THE RESULTANT RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
UTAH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY WRINKLE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE WOULD
BRING THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF UTAH. WITH LINGER MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A NEW SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO ORIGINATE OVER ARIZONA IN THE MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY TAP INTO SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND DRAG IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN FOCUSED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT AND SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FIRE DISTRICT. EXPECT MINIMAL DRYING TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY REMAINING VERY ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN HIGH. A DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH
WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAINS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 290335
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
935 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PARTIAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NWRN AZ THIS EVE WITH NEW CONVECTION CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP IN ITS VICINITY TO OUR S. SEVERAL SMALLER CENTERS WERE
NOTED THROUGH THE AFTN IN THE BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
AROUND THE MAIN CENTER AND WERE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. ONE OF THESE LIFTED THRU THE
WASATCH FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY AND OVER THE WASATCH MTNS. MODELS INDICATE THIS
CENTER IS MAINLY ABOVE 500 MB. THE MAIN CENTER BELOW THAT LEVEL IS
DEPICTED OVER NWRN UT WITH A TROF EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN CA.

EXPECT BROAD LIFT NORTH OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION TO KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOWER LEVEL CENTER RECEIVING PERSIST RAIN
RESULTING IN HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO DURATION NOT INTENSITY.
DONT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS AS A RESULT. THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALLOWED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT PART OF THE STATE TO EXPIRE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW ALTHO
SUPPRESSION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ALL THAT STRONG SO DIURNAL ACTIVITY COULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTN. THE LOWER CENTER AND TROF AXIS IS SLOW TO
CLEAR THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NERN CWA COULD SEE
RAIN THRU THE DAY.

EXPECT GRADUAL DRYING WED BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS THRU
THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE CWA THU/THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. A STRONGER DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR THE CWA FRI INTO SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ALONG
THE UT/NV BORDER.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL PASS EITHER NEAR OR OVER THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD LOWER CIGS BELOW 7000 FT AND RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS.
BRIEF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SHOWERS. THERE IS ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 282155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PARTIAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. REPORT OF ONE
MUDSLIDE ON ROAD EAST OF MT. NEBO...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FROM
OTHER AREAS THAT TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT AND ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
WASATCH MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION MAY DRIFT OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD
INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON EXTENT OF ORGANIZATION OF PRECIP AREA
OVER NORTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT...WITH 12Z NAM BEING MOST ENTHUSIASTIC
AND 12Z EC BEING LEAST. HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL
COMBINE TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY.

SOME DRYING WEDNESDAY AS UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN RETURNS TO TYPICAL MONSOON
WITH RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU...AIRMASS DRYS TO
TYPICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST MOST DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT
THE SLC TERMINAL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
ALLOWING SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLIMB OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUSED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND MOVING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PARK
NEARLY STATIONARY THERE. MINIMAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND
ELEVATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.

A DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ016-019>021-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME PARTIAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAIN IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. REPORT OF ONE
MUDSLIDE ON ROAD EAST OF MT. NEBO...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FROM
OTHER AREAS THAT TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT AND ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
WASATCH MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION MAY DRIFT OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD
INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON EXTENT OF ORGANIZATION OF PRECIP AREA
OVER NORTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT...WITH 12Z NAM BEING MOST ENTHUSIASTIC
AND 12Z EC BEING LEAST. HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL
COMBINE TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY.

SOME DRYING WEDNESDAY AS UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN RETURNS TO TYPICAL MONSOON
WITH RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU...AIRMASS DRYS TO
TYPICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST MOST DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT
THE SLC TERMINAL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
ALLOWING SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLIMB OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUSED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND MOVING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.

SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PARK
NEARLY STATIONARY THERE. MINIMAL DRYING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND
ELEVATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.

A DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ016-019>021-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281528
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
928 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CENTER AT 500 MB IS LOCATED OVER WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WHEN THE MONSOON HIGH GETS THAT FAR NORTH...OUR AREA
COMES UNDER MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE RESULT IS USUALLY
A LOT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALL THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY OCCURRING.

AT 12Z A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA
AND A TROUGH AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER FEATURE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NV. THESE
FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
EXPECT COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MAY CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH
COOLER...CLOUDY...SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z RUNS TO CONFIRM THIS
SCENARIO...BUT COULD NEED UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY ALONG THESE LINES...BUT COULD GO FURTHER IN THIS
DIRECTION IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME PATTERN.

IN SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION WILL LIGHT UP OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL
UTAH 18 TO 19 UTC AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE STATE
TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH BURN SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS VERY
CLOSELY. EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS MAINLY FOR CANYON COUNTRY.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z THROUGH
02Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
APPROACHING 6000 FT AGL DURING THESE EVENTS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
ALLOWING SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLIMB OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DISTRICT WIDE BRINGING A FAIRLY HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING RAINS TO THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IN HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH TOMORROW. THIS DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ016-019>021-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281528
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
928 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO BRING A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CENTER AT 500 MB IS LOCATED OVER WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WHEN THE MONSOON HIGH GETS THAT FAR NORTH...OUR AREA
COMES UNDER MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE RESULT IS USUALLY
A LOT OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALL THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY OCCURRING.

AT 12Z A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CA
AND A TROUGH AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER FEATURE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NV. THESE
FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
EXPECT COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MAY CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WITH MUCH
COOLER...CLOUDY...SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z RUNS TO CONFIRM THIS
SCENARIO...BUT COULD NEED UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY ALONG THESE LINES...BUT COULD GO FURTHER IN THIS
DIRECTION IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME PATTERN.

IN SHORT TERM...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION WILL LIGHT UP OVER SOUTH/CENTRAL
UTAH 18 TO 19 UTC AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE STATE
TODAY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH BURN SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS VERY
CLOSELY. EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS MAINLY FOR CANYON COUNTRY.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z THROUGH
02Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
APPROACHING 6000 FT AGL DURING THESE EVENTS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
ALLOWING SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CLIMB OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH THIS MOISTURE IN PLACE
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DISTRICT WIDE BRINGING A FAIRLY HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING RAINS TO THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL TREND TO DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IN HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH TOMORROW. THIS DRYING TREND WILL SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE DECREASE HOWEVER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ016-019>021-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281021
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPAWN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL
GAIN A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. FOR TODAY A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS AS DEFINED BY
THE 1.00+ INCH PWAT VALUES COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
UTAH. WHAT APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE A COUPLE OF WEAK
EASTERLY WAVES OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE FEATURE WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION
GENERATED FROM THIS DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SOME INTENSE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL UTAH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
ADDRESS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.

LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH AS THESE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMIC
FEATURES CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND ON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OLD BURN
SCARS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSE
RAINFALL CREATING DEBRIS FLOWS/FLOODING AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING UP
NORTH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY STILL FORM DUE
TO WEAK MEAN LAYER WINDS AND STILL IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUES.

A DRYING/WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CLIP
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF UTAH AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL CONCENTRATE A LOW-END THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONE SLATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION THAT DOES FIND
A WAY TO DEVELOP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE A
SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH SUNDAY...GENERATING A LIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS ALL FIRE DISTRICTS. HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE
DISTRICT WEDNESDAY...THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER
WITH AN ABATEMENT OF THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL FOR A FEW
HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN NORTH LONGER
BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
BETWEEN 18-19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z THROUGH 02Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281021
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPAWN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL
GAIN A MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING MIDWEEK. FOR TODAY A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS AS DEFINED BY
THE 1.00+ INCH PWAT VALUES COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
UTAH. WHAT APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE A COUPLE OF WEAK
EASTERLY WAVES OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE FEATURE WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION
GENERATED FROM THIS DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE SOME INTENSE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CENTRAL UTAH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
ADDRESS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.

LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH AS THESE ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMIC
FEATURES CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND ON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OLD BURN
SCARS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSE
RAINFALL CREATING DEBRIS FLOWS/FLOODING AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING UP
NORTH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MAY STILL FORM DUE
TO WEAK MEAN LAYER WINDS AND STILL IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUES.

A DRYING/WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STRENGTHENS ACROSS UTAH. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CLIP
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF UTAH AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL CONCENTRATE A LOW-END THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONE SLATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTION THAT DOES FIND
A WAY TO DEVELOP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE A
SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH SUNDAY...GENERATING A LIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS ALL FIRE DISTRICTS. HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE
DISTRICT WEDNESDAY...THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER
WITH AN ABATEMENT OF THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL FOR A FEW
HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN NORTH LONGER
BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
BETWEEN 18-19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z THROUGH 02Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280401
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1001 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER UTAH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST SOUTH
OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE ALLOWED SCATTERED WET
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THIS AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...CONVECTION REMAINED
LARGELY SUPPRESSED. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND
BECOME MORE VERTICAL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXPECT MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES...ONE OVER SOCAL LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NEVADA TOMORROW...AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH UTAH...WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE BOTH
DAYS...FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND ACROSS THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST MAINLY TO TRIM POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT POP/SKY FOR THE FAR SOUTH PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RAP/HRRR FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. A REDUCTION IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 280401
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1001 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER UTAH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST SOUTH
OF THIS RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE ALLOWED SCATTERED WET
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THIS AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...CONVECTION REMAINED
LARGELY SUPPRESSED. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND
BECOME MORE VERTICAL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...EXPECT MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES...ONE OVER SOCAL LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH NEVADA TOMORROW...AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH UTAH...WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE BOTH
DAYS...FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND ACROSS THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

MADE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST MAINLY TO TRIM POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT POP/SKY FOR THE FAR SOUTH PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
RAP/HRRR FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. A REDUCTION IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272203
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST AT THIS TIME...WITH PLACEMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL COLORADO
TO NORTHWEST UTAH. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. NORTHEAST OF THIS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRIER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA WILL HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST IN SOME
MANNER THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT...TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS ABOUT 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS RAP13
IMPLIES SIMILAR AND IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER RETURN FLOW WAVE MAY BE
DRIVING THIS PER WATER VAPOR. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AXIS.

GOES DERIVED PWAT AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A NORTHWARD SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. NAM12/GFS CONTINUE
THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWATS
OF 1 INCH OR GREATER OVER MOST ALL OF THE CWA BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW.

SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER
SOCAL/AZ BORDER THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH NOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FEEL GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST GRASP ON ITS
EVOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME...TRACKING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
RETAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION BENEATH THE RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES
NORTH INTO CANADA. STREAMLINES INDICATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW. INTERACTION OF THIS AXIS W/DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO ALL AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER CIRCULATION WILL SPIN UP
OVER NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHERN IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITHIN
SAID DEFORMATION. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DUE TO THIS...BUT THE SOUTHERN TW0-THIRDS OF THE STATE
APPEAR TO BE QUITE SUPPRESSED IN WAKE OF PASSAGE OF THIS
DEFORMATION AXIS...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SHYING AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/PRECIP AND H7 TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR 10C
MAY MAKE IT HARD TO EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH ONLY A FAIR REBOUND WEDNESDAY. BC GUIDANCE EASILY 10
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO CLIMO INFLUENCE.

THEREAFTER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST WITH CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT
MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS PER NORM FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH DAILY AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPS AFTER
THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN.

OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE THIS A
FEW RUNS BACK...WITH 12Z GFS LATCHING ONTO THIS TO SOME DEGREE
THOUGH PRIOR RUNS HAD NOT. GRIDS TRENDING TO THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 03-04Z. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY HAS COME UP ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT TODAY. HUMIDITY WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. A
REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272203
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST AT THIS TIME...WITH PLACEMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL COLORADO
TO NORTHWEST UTAH. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE. NORTHEAST OF THIS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRIER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA WILL HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST IN SOME
MANNER THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT...TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS ABOUT 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS RAP13
IMPLIES SIMILAR AND IT APPEARS YET ANOTHER RETURN FLOW WAVE MAY BE
DRIVING THIS PER WATER VAPOR. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXIST
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AXIS.

GOES DERIVED PWAT AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A NORTHWARD SURGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. NAM12/GFS CONTINUE
THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWATS
OF 1 INCH OR GREATER OVER MOST ALL OF THE CWA BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW.

SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER
SOCAL/AZ BORDER THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH NOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FEEL GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST GRASP ON ITS
EVOLUTION THROUGH THAT TIME...TRACKING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
RETAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION BENEATH THE RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES
NORTH INTO CANADA. STREAMLINES INDICATE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW. INTERACTION OF THIS AXIS W/DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A FAIRLY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO ALL AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER CIRCULATION WILL SPIN UP
OVER NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHERN IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITHIN
SAID DEFORMATION. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DUE TO THIS...BUT THE SOUTHERN TW0-THIRDS OF THE STATE
APPEAR TO BE QUITE SUPPRESSED IN WAKE OF PASSAGE OF THIS
DEFORMATION AXIS...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SHYING AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/PRECIP AND H7 TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR 10C
MAY MAKE IT HARD TO EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH ONLY A FAIR REBOUND WEDNESDAY. BC GUIDANCE EASILY 10
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO CLIMO INFLUENCE.

THEREAFTER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST WITH CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT
MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS PER NORM FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH DAILY AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPS AFTER
THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN.

OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO INDICATE THIS A
FEW RUNS BACK...WITH 12Z GFS LATCHING ONTO THIS TO SOME DEGREE
THOUGH PRIOR RUNS HAD NOT. GRIDS TRENDING TO THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 03-04Z. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY HAS COME UP ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT TODAY. HUMIDITY WILL KEEP RISING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. A
REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO START TO LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271628
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED AXIS NOW
BISECTING THE STATE FROM NW-SE. BENEATH THIS AXIS A WEAK WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COME MIDDAY. PWAT NOW
APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH OWING TO POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS THIS AFTERNOON. GOES DERIVED PWAT AND
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS A RELATIVE DRY SLOT
THAT WAS OVER EASTERN AZ YESTERDAY HAS MOVED IN...THUS SHOULD SEE
MORE ISOLATED AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

EARLIER UPDATE REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
UTAH FOR THIS MORNING...BUT RETAINED POPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. RAP13 INDICATES
A CONTINUED BY GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING
BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WASATCH FRONT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

WITH RIDGE POSITION QUITE PRONOUNCED OVERHEAD AND RELATIVELY
LIMITED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS...THE WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT TRIPLE DIGITS AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT COME LATE
AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED...

THE CENTRAL UTAH WAVE WILL MOSTLY SHEAR TONIGHT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.

STILL TRACKING A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR SOCAL/BAJA.
THIS WAVE REMAINS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT AND EASTERN NV TOMORROW BEFORE TRACKING
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT COUPLED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MOST ALL AREAS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PASSAGE
OF THIS WAVE WILL BOTH COOL AND MOSTLY SUPPRESS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ALLOWING A
SOMEWHAT MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS PER NORM FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH DAILY AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF
TEMPS AFTER THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH ANY CIGS WELL ABV 7000 FT. CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD SEND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AGAIN TODAY IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF ABOUT I-80 AND ISOLATED DRY STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN MAINLY TOOELE AND SALT LAKE
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT MONDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271628
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED AXIS NOW
BISECTING THE STATE FROM NW-SE. BENEATH THIS AXIS A WEAK WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COME MIDDAY. PWAT NOW
APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH OWING TO POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS THIS AFTERNOON. GOES DERIVED PWAT AND
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS A RELATIVE DRY SLOT
THAT WAS OVER EASTERN AZ YESTERDAY HAS MOVED IN...THUS SHOULD SEE
MORE ISOLATED AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

EARLIER UPDATE REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
UTAH FOR THIS MORNING...BUT RETAINED POPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. RAP13 INDICATES
A CONTINUED BY GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING
BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WASATCH FRONT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

WITH RIDGE POSITION QUITE PRONOUNCED OVERHEAD AND RELATIVELY
LIMITED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS...THE WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT TRIPLE DIGITS AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT COME LATE
AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED...

THE CENTRAL UTAH WAVE WILL MOSTLY SHEAR TONIGHT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.

STILL TRACKING A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR SOCAL/BAJA.
THIS WAVE REMAINS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT AND EASTERN NV TOMORROW BEFORE TRACKING
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT COUPLED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MOST ALL AREAS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PASSAGE
OF THIS WAVE WILL BOTH COOL AND MOSTLY SUPPRESS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ALLOWING A
SOMEWHAT MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS PER NORM FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH DAILY AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF
TEMPS AFTER THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH ANY CIGS WELL ABV 7000 FT. CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD SEND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AGAIN TODAY IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF ABOUT I-80 AND ISOLATED DRY STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN MAINLY TOOELE AND SALT LAKE
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT MONDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270937
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...AS A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHERN UT TO SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD...EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT MAY CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD I-80 BY
BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE 100F
MARK ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE MONDAY TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK...BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THIS
MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH TODAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COVER
ALL OF THE STATE BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST DESERTS WHILE SCATTERED
WETTER STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE FOR MONDAY COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPAWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270937
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...AS A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHERN UT TO SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD...EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT MAY CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD I-80 BY
BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE 100F
MARK ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE MONDAY TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A WAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK...BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THIS
MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH TODAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COVER
ALL OF THE STATE BY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST DESERTS WHILE SCATTERED
WETTER STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE FOR MONDAY COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPAWN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/YOUNG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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