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000
FXUS65 KSLC 012223
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH COOLER...FALL LIKE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. DESPITE GRADUAL DRYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS LINGERING MOISTURE HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
UT WHILE MAINTAINING A MILD AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER
DIMINISHED...AND LIKELY CONFINED ONLY TO THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS
SUCH AS BOULDER MOUNTAIN AND THE HIGH UINTAS.

WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS...THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS THE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST /DISCUSSED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW/. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SUSPECT
MOISTURE IN AT LEAST A LIMITED CAPACITY WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
BUMPED POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS TIME THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN DECREASES. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A PRETTY VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS SURGES HIGHER PW AIR INTO
EASTERN UT THU NGT AND DEVELOPS DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP AT
THIS TIME...BUT FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE TO PULL
DEEPER MOISTURE N AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF PRECIP JUST A BIT ON THU NGT
AND FRI ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP WESTERN
TROUGH. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE AROUND
15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DON/T
DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH BELIEVE IT WILL BE
ACTIVE ACROSS NRN UT CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD PUSH WINDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z...BUT MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF KSLC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.

&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 012223
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH COOLER...FALL LIKE AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. DESPITE GRADUAL DRYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS LINGERING MOISTURE HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
UT WHILE MAINTAINING A MILD AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER
DIMINISHED...AND LIKELY CONFINED ONLY TO THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS
SUCH AS BOULDER MOUNTAIN AND THE HIGH UINTAS.

WHILE THE OVERALL IDEA OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS...THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING REMAINS THE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST /DISCUSSED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW/. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SUSPECT
MOISTURE IN AT LEAST A LIMITED CAPACITY WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
BUMPED POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS TIME THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN DECREASES. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A PRETTY VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS SURGES HIGHER PW AIR INTO
EASTERN UT THU NGT AND DEVELOPS DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP AT
THIS TIME...BUT FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE TO PULL
DEEPER MOISTURE N AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF PRECIP JUST A BIT ON THU NGT
AND FRI ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP WESTERN
TROUGH. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE AROUND
15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SOME AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DON/T
DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH BELIEVE IT WILL BE
ACTIVE ACROSS NRN UT CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD PUSH WINDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z...BUT MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF KSLC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ277.

&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011608
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED LOW DIGGING ALONG
THE BRITCOL COASTLINE. A WEAK WAVE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY IS LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS MORNING...HELPING TO DRIVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL UT. A WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALSO ENHANCING
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

GOES DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS AZ NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UT...WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
REMAINS DRIER WITH PW VALUES LARGELY BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE
EXCEPTION IS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY AND IS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
GIVEN THE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT HI-RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS WITH THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF
CONVECTION...LARGELY KEEPING ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING FOR NOW...BUT KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KSLC...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 26 KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE OQUIRRHS AFTER 19Z AND
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
FUELS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011608
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED LOW DIGGING ALONG
THE BRITCOL COASTLINE. A WEAK WAVE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY IS LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS MORNING...HELPING TO DRIVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL UT. A WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALSO ENHANCING
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

GOES DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS AZ NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UT...WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
REMAINS DRIER WITH PW VALUES LARGELY BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE
EXCEPTION IS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY AND IS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
GIVEN THE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT HI-RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS WITH THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF
CONVECTION...LARGELY KEEPING ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING FOR NOW...BUT KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KSLC...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 26 KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE OQUIRRHS AFTER 19Z AND
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
FUELS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011608
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED LOW DIGGING ALONG
THE BRITCOL COASTLINE. A WEAK WAVE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY IS LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS MORNING...HELPING TO DRIVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL UT. A WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALSO ENHANCING
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

GOES DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS AZ NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UT...WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
REMAINS DRIER WITH PW VALUES LARGELY BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE
EXCEPTION IS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY AND IS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
GIVEN THE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT HI-RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS WITH THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF
CONVECTION...LARGELY KEEPING ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING FOR NOW...BUT KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KSLC...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 26 KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE OQUIRRHS AFTER 19Z AND
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
FUELS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011608
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED LOW DIGGING ALONG
THE BRITCOL COASTLINE. A WEAK WAVE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY IS LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS MORNING...HELPING TO DRIVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL UT. A WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALSO ENHANCING
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN UT.

GOES DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS AZ NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UT...WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
REMAINS DRIER WITH PW VALUES LARGELY BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE
EXCEPTION IS A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTHERN UT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY AND IS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE TERRAIN AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
GIVEN THE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT HI-RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AMBITIOUS WITH THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF
CONVECTION...LARGELY KEEPING ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING FOR NOW...BUT KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KSLC...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 26 KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-01Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OFF THE OQUIRRHS AFTER 19Z AND
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
FUELS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011017
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
417 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL BRITCOL COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD DRIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK///THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WESTERN REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK VORTICITY MAX MAY EXIST OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS DRIVING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ADVANCING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. SUSPECT THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE
WILL USHER THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST AND BRING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.

GOES PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM UP AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST MOISTURE INTO THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS LESS
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MIDWEEK.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCLINED TO THINK THAT SOME PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE CONVERGES INTO THE BOUNDARY WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH SUPPORTING FAIRLY
DEEP CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
INCREASED A BIT OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTING TO COME MORE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EC EJECT THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
STILL TRENDING FASTER THAN THE EC. THE 00Z CANADIAN HOWEVER...STILL
FAVORS A DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING
SUNDAY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACT UTAH. THE FIRST IS JUST HOW COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE 00Z EC
FEATURES 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER...WHEREAS THE WARMER GFS AVERAGES NEAR 0C. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...IT APPEARS AS IF
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT
WARMER IF THINGS RUN EVEN SLOWER IN LATER MODEL RUNS. KEPT THE TREND
OF LOWERING SUNDAYS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS.

THE OTHER MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR UTAH IS JUST HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH. THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SURGE...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF
UTAH...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21-01Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

CONGER/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011017
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
417 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL BRITCOL COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD DRIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK///THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WESTERN REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK VORTICITY MAX MAY EXIST OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS DRIVING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ADVANCING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. SUSPECT THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE
WILL USHER THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST AND BRING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.

GOES PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM UP AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST MOISTURE INTO THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS LESS
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MIDWEEK.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCLINED TO THINK THAT SOME PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE CONVERGES INTO THE BOUNDARY WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH SUPPORTING FAIRLY
DEEP CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
INCREASED A BIT OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTING TO COME MORE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EC EJECT THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
STILL TRENDING FASTER THAN THE EC. THE 00Z CANADIAN HOWEVER...STILL
FAVORS A DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING
SUNDAY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACT UTAH. THE FIRST IS JUST HOW COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE 00Z EC
FEATURES 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER...WHEREAS THE WARMER GFS AVERAGES NEAR 0C. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...IT APPEARS AS IF
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT
WARMER IF THINGS RUN EVEN SLOWER IN LATER MODEL RUNS. KEPT THE TREND
OF LOWERING SUNDAYS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS.

THE OTHER MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR UTAH IS JUST HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH. THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SURGE...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF
UTAH...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21-01Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

CONGER/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011017
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
417 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL BRITCOL COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD DRIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK///THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WESTERN REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK VORTICITY MAX MAY EXIST OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS DRIVING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ADVANCING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. SUSPECT THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE
WILL USHER THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST AND BRING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.

GOES PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM UP AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST MOISTURE INTO THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS LESS
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MIDWEEK.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCLINED TO THINK THAT SOME PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE CONVERGES INTO THE BOUNDARY WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH SUPPORTING FAIRLY
DEEP CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
INCREASED A BIT OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTING TO COME MORE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EC EJECT THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
STILL TRENDING FASTER THAN THE EC. THE 00Z CANADIAN HOWEVER...STILL
FAVORS A DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING
SUNDAY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACT UTAH. THE FIRST IS JUST HOW COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE 00Z EC
FEATURES 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER...WHEREAS THE WARMER GFS AVERAGES NEAR 0C. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...IT APPEARS AS IF
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT
WARMER IF THINGS RUN EVEN SLOWER IN LATER MODEL RUNS. KEPT THE TREND
OF LOWERING SUNDAYS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS.

THE OTHER MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR UTAH IS JUST HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH. THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SURGE...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF
UTAH...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21-01Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

CONGER/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011017
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
417 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FORM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL BRITCOL COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD DRIFT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK///THEN LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE WESTERN REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK VORTICITY MAX MAY EXIST OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS DRIVING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ADVANCING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. SUSPECT THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE
WILL USHER THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST AND BRING AN END TO
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.

GOES PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA AND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM UP AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST MOISTURE INTO THIS EVENING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS LESS
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MIDWEEK.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHWEST UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCLINED TO THINK THAT SOME PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE CONVERGES INTO THE BOUNDARY WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH SUPPORTING FAIRLY
DEEP CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
INCREASED A BIT OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE BULK OF THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTING TO COME MORE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY COLD PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EC EJECT THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
SUNDAY. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
STILL TRENDING FASTER THAN THE EC. THE 00Z CANADIAN HOWEVER...STILL
FAVORS A DEEPER AND SLOWER SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING
SUNDAY AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH THAT
DIRECTLY IMPACT UTAH. THE FIRST IS JUST HOW COLD THE SYSTEM WILL BE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE 00Z EC
FEATURES 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER...WHEREAS THE WARMER GFS AVERAGES NEAR 0C. GIVEN THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS...IT APPEARS AS IF
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT
WARMER IF THINGS RUN EVEN SLOWER IN LATER MODEL RUNS. KEPT THE TREND
OF LOWERING SUNDAYS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS.

THE OTHER MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR UTAH IS JUST HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH. THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SURGE...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF
UTAH...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AFTER THE TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21-01Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

CONGER/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...PRIMARILY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST OVER THE FEW DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
UTAH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH THE
DRYING AIRMASS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO INCREASE. THE TROUGH IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9
PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...PRIMARILY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST OVER THE FEW DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
UTAH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH THE
DRYING AIRMASS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO INCREASE. THE TROUGH IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9
PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...PRIMARILY ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST OVER THE FEW DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
UTAH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH THE
DRYING AIRMASS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO INCREASE. THE TROUGH IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9
PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 312206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION
YESTERDAY AND THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

AS THAT TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...CONTINUING TO PUSH A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE
CWA. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE EACH
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LIKELY IN WESTERN UTAH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...A STRONG FALL-LIKE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD REGARDING AMPLIFICATION AND TRACK OF
THIS...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CARRYING LOWER AMPLITUDE
THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION AND WOULD POSE A GREATER IMPACT TO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
AS IT BACKS FLOW MORE SUBSTANTIALLY...THIS OPENING A TAP TO DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH THAT WOULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE DYNAMICS
OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES. THE CANADIAN LIES CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST GRIDS TOWARDS SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF
THESE SOLUTIONS. LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND HOWEVER.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST REGARDING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BUT
NOTEWORTHY MOST ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE...RAW H7 TEMP PROGS FALL TO +2 C COME
SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. CONTINUED TO TREND TEMPS DOWN DUE TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS. ADDITIONALLY...LEANING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE WITH GENERAL TRENDS SPREADING
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AS FLOW BACKS...BECOMING MOST AREALLY
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT WHEN TROUGH DYNAMICS
PEAK...THEN DRYING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 02-03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
WEEK GOES ON AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 312206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE REGION
YESTERDAY AND THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

AS THAT TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...CONTINUING TO PUSH A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE
CWA. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE EACH
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LIKELY IN WESTERN UTAH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...A STRONG FALL-LIKE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD REGARDING AMPLIFICATION AND TRACK OF
THIS...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CARRYING LOWER AMPLITUDE
THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION AND WOULD POSE A GREATER IMPACT TO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
AS IT BACKS FLOW MORE SUBSTANTIALLY...THIS OPENING A TAP TO DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH THAT WOULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE DYNAMICS
OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES. THE CANADIAN LIES CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND HAVE TRENDED FORECAST GRIDS TOWARDS SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF
THESE SOLUTIONS. LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND HOWEVER.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST REGARDING A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BUT
NOTEWORTHY MOST ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE...RAW H7 TEMP PROGS FALL TO +2 C COME
SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. CONTINUED TO TREND TEMPS DOWN DUE TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS. ADDITIONALLY...LEANING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE WITH GENERAL TRENDS SPREADING
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AS FLOW BACKS...BECOMING MOST AREALLY
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT WHEN TROUGH DYNAMICS
PEAK...THEN DRYING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 02-03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE IS LINGERING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
WEEK GOES ON AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WYZ277 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
9 PM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311531
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
931 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALLOWED SOME
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED AS OF 15Z.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING POPS ACROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED EAST.
ALSO ADDED MENTIONABLE POPS IN CASTLE COUNTRY AND THE UINTA
BASIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HRRR AND SOME OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER
INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH
18Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311531
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
931 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALLOWED SOME
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED AS OF 15Z.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING POPS ACROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED EAST.
ALSO ADDED MENTIONABLE POPS IN CASTLE COUNTRY AND THE UINTA
BASIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HRRR AND SOME OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER
INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH
18Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311531
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
931 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALLOWED SOME
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED AS OF 15Z.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING POPS ACROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED EAST.
ALSO ADDED MENTIONABLE POPS IN CASTLE COUNTRY AND THE UINTA
BASIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HRRR AND SOME OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER
INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH
18Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311531
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
931 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA TODAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM STARTING TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE THAT IMPACTED THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALLOWED SOME
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THOSE SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED AS OF 15Z.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING POPS ACROSS
THE WASATCH FRONT AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED EAST.
ALSO ADDED MENTIONABLE POPS IN CASTLE COUNTRY AND THE UINTA
BASIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HRRR AND SOME OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER
INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH
18Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...MERRILL
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311048
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTERACTING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS MAINTAINED WEAK CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR WENDOVER THROUGH THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND THEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE MODEST MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL EARLY THIS MORNING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND MID-MORNING.

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG THIS DRIER AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...BRINGING AN END TO ANY REAL THREAT
OF CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING DRY AIR AND THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME.

THE NEXT UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...THEN MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...WITH THESE FEATURES IMPACTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE EJECTING SHORTWAVES BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
LIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MODEL SPREAD WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS QUITE LARGE...HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SECOND MAIN SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER GLOBAL MODELS..MAINLY THE 00Z GFS...INDICATE A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITH SUCH A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR UTAH...ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS VARIATION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE EC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SATURDAY. THE GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION...BUT STILL INDICATES A SEMBLANCE OF A MOISTURE SURGE.
STARTED TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE DEEPER SOLUTION...THE EC BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C
ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS...KEPT THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311048
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTERACTING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS MAINTAINED WEAK CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR WENDOVER THROUGH THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND THEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE MODEST MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL EARLY THIS MORNING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND MID-MORNING.

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG THIS DRIER AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...BRINGING AN END TO ANY REAL THREAT
OF CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING DRY AIR AND THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME.

THE NEXT UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...THEN MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...WITH THESE FEATURES IMPACTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE EJECTING SHORTWAVES BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
LIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MODEL SPREAD WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS QUITE LARGE...HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SECOND MAIN SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER GLOBAL MODELS..MAINLY THE 00Z GFS...INDICATE A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITH SUCH A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR UTAH...ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS VARIATION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE EC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SATURDAY. THE GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION...BUT STILL INDICATES A SEMBLANCE OF A MOISTURE SURGE.
STARTED TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE DEEPER SOLUTION...THE EC BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C
ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS...KEPT THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 311048
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTERACTING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS MAINTAINED WEAK CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR WENDOVER THROUGH THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND THEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE MODEST MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL EARLY THIS MORNING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND MID-MORNING.

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG THIS DRIER AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...BRINGING AN END TO ANY REAL THREAT
OF CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING DRY AIR AND THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME.

THE NEXT UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...THEN MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...WITH THESE FEATURES IMPACTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE EJECTING SHORTWAVES BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
LIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MODEL SPREAD WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS QUITE LARGE...HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SECOND MAIN SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER GLOBAL MODELS..MAINLY THE 00Z GFS...INDICATE A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITH SUCH A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR UTAH...ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS VARIATION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE EC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SATURDAY. THE GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION...BUT STILL INDICATES A SEMBLANCE OF A MOISTURE SURGE.
STARTED TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE DEEPER SOLUTION...THE EC BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C
ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS...KEPT THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 311048
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTERACTING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS MAINTAINED WEAK CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR WENDOVER THROUGH THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND THEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE MODEST MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL EARLY THIS MORNING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND MID-MORNING.

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE
AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG THIS DRIER AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...BRINGING AN END TO ANY REAL THREAT
OF CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING DRY AIR AND THE EXISTING MOISTURE PLUME.

THE NEXT UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...THEN MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION...WITH THESE FEATURES IMPACTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AHEAD OF THESE EJECTING SHORTWAVES BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE AT PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST
UTAH. THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
LIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...MODEL SPREAD WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS QUITE LARGE...HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A LARGE...RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SECOND MAIN SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER GLOBAL MODELS..MAINLY THE 00Z GFS...INDICATE A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITH SUCH A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

FOR UTAH...ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS VARIATION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE EC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SATURDAY. THE GFS TRENDS TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION...BUT STILL INDICATES A SEMBLANCE OF A MOISTURE SURGE.
STARTED TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE DEEPER SOLUTION...THE EC BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C
ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS...KEPT THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 310359
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
959 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNDER A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL UTAH
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. BELIEVE THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING ACROSS SRN AND ERN UTAH AS
STORMS SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH DEPARTING WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CEASE AS THE BACK END OF
CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM WEST
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SW WY ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT
WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A MODEST REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AREA WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ERRATIC WINDS THOUGH 0900
UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 310359
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
959 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNDER A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL UTAH
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. BELIEVE THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING ACROSS SRN AND ERN UTAH AS
STORMS SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH DEPARTING WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CEASE AS THE BACK END OF
CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM WEST
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SW WY ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT
WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A MODEST REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AREA WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ERRATIC WINDS THOUGH 0900
UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 310359
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
959 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNDER A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL UTAH
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. BELIEVE THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING ACROSS SRN AND ERN UTAH AS
STORMS SLIDE TO THE EAST WITH DEPARTING WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CEASE AS THE BACK END OF
CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER FROM WEST
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SW WY ALONG MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT
WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD ANOTHER TROUGH
THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A MODEST REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AREA WILL BRING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ERRATIC WINDS THOUGH 0900
UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 302142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS IDAHO
AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO EASTERN UTAH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
MORE MOIST AND THERE ARE GOOD DYNAMICS. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF
10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE COLD
FRONT WEAKENS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FOCUS
OVER THAT AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE COMPARED TO TODAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
FURTHER SO ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE PACNW/NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AS THIS ENERGY LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FURTHER IMPINGING ON THE PLAINS RIDGE AND HOLDING
IT WELL EAST. A DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS
SUCH.

H7 TEMPS AT KSLC WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. DEEP
MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID BREEZY TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

GLOBAL MODELS LARGELY AGREE THAT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE FRIDAY WILL DRIVE INCREASED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LAST
SHORT WAVE OF THE SERIES...CARVING THE MEAN TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH/EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS
SAID...SOME TIMING/AMPLIFICATION ISSUES BEGIN TO ARISE BETWEEN
EC/GFS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE GEFS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE REGARDING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT
WORKS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA /LATE FRIDAY GFS...SATURDAY
MORNING EC/. REGARDLESS...GLOBALS DO AGREE THAT FAIRLY STOUT CAA
WILL BE OCCURRING SATURDAY AND HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TO WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEKEND. SAID FRONT DOES APPEAR QUITE
SHALLOW AND MOISTURE STARVED OWING TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 02-03Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT IS
DELAYED UNTIL 04Z OR LATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN UTAH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DISTRICT. THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 302142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS IDAHO
AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO EASTERN UTAH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
MORE MOIST AND THERE ARE GOOD DYNAMICS. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF
10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE COLD
FRONT WEAKENS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FOCUS
OVER THAT AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE COMPARED TO TODAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
FURTHER SO ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...A PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE PACNW/NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS MID/LATE WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AS THIS ENERGY LIFTS NE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FURTHER IMPINGING ON THE PLAINS RIDGE AND HOLDING
IT WELL EAST. A DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS
SUCH.

H7 TEMPS AT KSLC WILL EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH THE FALLING HEIGHTS...THOUGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. DEEP
MIXING OF FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID BREEZY TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

GLOBAL MODELS LARGELY AGREE THAT AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE FRIDAY WILL DRIVE INCREASED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LAST
SHORT WAVE OF THE SERIES...CARVING THE MEAN TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH/EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS
SAID...SOME TIMING/AMPLIFICATION ISSUES BEGIN TO ARISE BETWEEN
EC/GFS AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE GEFS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE REGARDING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT
WORKS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA /LATE FRIDAY GFS...SATURDAY
MORNING EC/. REGARDLESS...GLOBALS DO AGREE THAT FAIRLY STOUT CAA
WILL BE OCCURRING SATURDAY AND HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TO WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEKEND. SAID FRONT DOES APPEAR QUITE
SHALLOW AND MOISTURE STARVED OWING TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 02-03Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT IS
DELAYED UNTIL 04Z OR LATER. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN UTAH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
DISTRICT. THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE BOUNDARY. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301609
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1009 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KTPH-KFWZ LINE THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. CLOUDS
REMAIN IN PLACE PRIMARILY ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL JUST MISS UTAH AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA
TODAY...BUT THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST JET SUPPORT OVER THE AREA
EASTWARD. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COOLING OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE
MAXES SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL MOVE MAXES TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. ANOTHER
APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH
COULD INTRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS ALONG WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPROACHES.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY GUSTY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AFTER 18Z TODAY. OUTSIDE OF
THIS A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS THAT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 6000FT AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. EASTERN UTAH
WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 301609
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1009 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS NEAR A KTPH-KFWZ LINE THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS. CLOUDS
REMAIN IN PLACE PRIMARILY ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL JUST MISS UTAH AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA
TODAY...BUT THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST JET SUPPORT OVER THE AREA
EASTWARD. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COOLING OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE
MAXES SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 10F BELOW VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL MOVE MAXES TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. ANOTHER
APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH
COULD INTRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS ALONG WITH SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND APPROACHES.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY GUSTY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL AFTER 18Z TODAY. OUTSIDE OF
THIS A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS THAT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 6000FT AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. EASTERN UTAH
WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

TRAPHAGAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300955
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY ERODING
TONIGHT. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST UTAH OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TAP
COLLIDES WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

TODAY SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...SOME OF THIS COOLING MAY BE MITIGATED BY
THE WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE WAVE. MONDAY SHOULD BRING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARMER
AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WHILE SHIFTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLACES EASTWARD. LOCATED BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS...THE GREAT BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT DURING
PERIOD...WITH ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. ENSEMBLE RUNS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH SOLUTIONS...SO DEFINITELY
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. IT APPEARS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MOISTURE DEFINITELY LIMITED WITH SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH. WITH SOME
LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO COOL
DAYTIME HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER REGION ON
SUNDAY...SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THE BIGGEST WEATHER UNCERTAINTY AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST WITH A WEAK APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY GUSTY...WITH
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING...WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLIES
WAITING UNTIL 18Z TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE IS ALSO A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
00Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
FOCUS ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING ON TUESDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 300955
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY ERODING
TONIGHT. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST UTAH OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TAP
COLLIDES WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

TODAY SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...SOME OF THIS COOLING MAY BE MITIGATED BY
THE WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE WAVE. MONDAY SHOULD BRING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARMER
AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WHILE SHIFTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLACES EASTWARD. LOCATED BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS...THE GREAT BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT DURING
PERIOD...WITH ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. ENSEMBLE RUNS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH SOLUTIONS...SO DEFINITELY
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. IT APPEARS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MOISTURE DEFINITELY LIMITED WITH SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH. WITH SOME
LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO COOL
DAYTIME HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER REGION ON
SUNDAY...SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THE BIGGEST WEATHER UNCERTAINTY AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST WITH A WEAK APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY GUSTY...WITH
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING...WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLIES
WAITING UNTIL 18Z TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE IS ALSO A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
00Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
FOCUS ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING ON TUESDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 300955
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY ERODING
TONIGHT. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST UTAH OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TAP
COLLIDES WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

TODAY SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...SOME OF THIS COOLING MAY BE MITIGATED BY
THE WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE WAVE. MONDAY SHOULD BRING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARMER
AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WHILE SHIFTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLACES EASTWARD. LOCATED BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS...THE GREAT BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT DURING
PERIOD...WITH ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. ENSEMBLE RUNS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH SOLUTIONS...SO DEFINITELY
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. IT APPEARS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MOISTURE DEFINITELY LIMITED WITH SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH. WITH SOME
LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO COOL
DAYTIME HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER REGION ON
SUNDAY...SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THE BIGGEST WEATHER UNCERTAINTY AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST WITH A WEAK APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY GUSTY...WITH
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING...WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLIES
WAITING UNTIL 18Z TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE IS ALSO A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
00Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
FOCUS ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING ON TUESDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 300955
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OUT...BEFORE EVENTUALLY ERODING
TONIGHT. WITH THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST UTAH OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TAP
COLLIDES WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

TODAY SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...SOME OF THIS COOLING MAY BE MITIGATED BY
THE WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS PUSHING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE WAVE. MONDAY SHOULD BRING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARMER
AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WHILE SHIFTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLACES EASTWARD. LOCATED BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS...THE GREAT BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE GREAT BASIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT DURING
PERIOD...WITH ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. ENSEMBLE RUNS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH SOLUTIONS...SO DEFINITELY
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. IT APPEARS COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD DROP INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MOISTURE DEFINITELY LIMITED WITH SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH. WITH SOME
LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO COOL
DAYTIME HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER REGION ON
SUNDAY...SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THE BIGGEST WEATHER UNCERTAINTY AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST WITH A WEAK APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY GUSTY...WITH
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING...WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLIES
WAITING UNTIL 18Z TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THERE IS ALSO A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
00Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
FOCUS ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING ON TUESDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING/BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300428
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHED THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN BOX ELDER COUNTY. THIS
CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WAS QUITE LIMITED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-500 J/KG AT
THEIR HEIGHT. THIS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STABILIZATION. A FEW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS ENDED.

OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN UTAH...LITTLE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION EXISTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FROM
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW POPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. RELATIVELY MODEST SBCAPE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH VIGOROUS
FLOW ALOFT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF GREATER THAN 40 DEGREES F
ANTICIPATE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH
ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF .75". COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UT ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW UT WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DIPPING BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NGT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO ONLY ANTICIPATE MINIMAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 15Z TO 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. WINDS
DECREASE A BIT FOR MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. ANTICIPATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW UTAH ON TUE AND
WED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING/GRAHAM/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300428
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHED THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN BOX ELDER COUNTY. THIS
CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WAS QUITE LIMITED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-500 J/KG AT
THEIR HEIGHT. THIS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STABILIZATION. A FEW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS ENDED.

OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN UTAH...LITTLE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION EXISTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FROM
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW POPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. RELATIVELY MODEST SBCAPE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH VIGOROUS
FLOW ALOFT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF GREATER THAN 40 DEGREES F
ANTICIPATE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH
ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF .75". COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UT ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW UT WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DIPPING BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NGT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO ONLY ANTICIPATE MINIMAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 15Z TO 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. WINDS
DECREASE A BIT FOR MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. ANTICIPATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW UTAH ON TUE AND
WED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING/GRAHAM/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 300428
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHED THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN BOX ELDER COUNTY. THIS
CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WAS QUITE LIMITED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-500 J/KG AT
THEIR HEIGHT. THIS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STABILIZATION. A FEW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS ENDED.

OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN UTAH...LITTLE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION EXISTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FROM
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW POPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. RELATIVELY MODEST SBCAPE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH VIGOROUS
FLOW ALOFT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF GREATER THAN 40 DEGREES F
ANTICIPATE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH
ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF .75". COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UT ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW UT WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DIPPING BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NGT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO ONLY ANTICIPATE MINIMAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 15Z TO 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. WINDS
DECREASE A BIT FOR MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. ANTICIPATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW UTAH ON TUE AND
WED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING/GRAHAM/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 300428
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH APPROACHED THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN BOX ELDER COUNTY. THIS
CONVECTION OCCURRED ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WAS QUITE LIMITED...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-500 J/KG AT
THEIR HEIGHT. THIS CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS
OF THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STABILIZATION. A FEW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN THREAT HAS ENDED.

OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN UTAH...LITTLE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION EXISTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FROM
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW POPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER UTAH TODAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. RELATIVELY MODEST SBCAPE EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH VIGOROUS
FLOW ALOFT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF GREATER THAN 40 DEGREES F
ANTICIPATE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN UTAH
ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF .75". COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UT ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW UT WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DIPPING BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.

FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NGT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO ONLY ANTICIPATE MINIMAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.
SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AGAIN ON TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CORRESPONDING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME OF 15Z TO 18Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL UT SUN NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. WINDS
DECREASE A BIT FOR MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. ANTICIPATE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW UTAH ON TUE AND
WED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING/GRAHAM/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





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