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000
FXUS65 KSLC 032121
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
321 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW...THEN SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LARGE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH
A WARM AIRMASS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY APPROACH THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2016 THUS FAR
ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE ANY
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. KEPT POPS ELEVATED ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
TOWARD THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
UTAH. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES TO THE END OF THE MODEL
RUN...POSSIBLY BRINGING ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEADING TO PRIMARILY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING/DEWEY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031551
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
951 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
EXPECT ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE STATE...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 700MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031551
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
951 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
EXPECT ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE STATE...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 700MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 17-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030949
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
349 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS PLACE A WESTERLY 50-80KT JET OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER.
A SECOND CYCLONIC JET OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. GOES/HRRR/00Z KSLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES FROM 0.10"-0.20" MOUNTAINS TO 0.25"-0.50" MOST
VALLEYS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING TO GUST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH. GUSTS MAY NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS A FEW WESTERN VALLEYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KTS WITH 8-10MB/6HR PRESSURE FALLS
THOUGH GRADIENT DOESNT LOOK TOO STRONG YET.

EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST INCREASING INSTABILITY
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE 8-10KFT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z FRIDAY)...
THE POSITION OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW BY BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE
QUITE SIMILAR OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE DIFFERENCES COME WITH
THE LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SHARPER AND FASTER WITH THIS
LOBE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE
EC WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLOWER AND WEAKER LOBE THAT WOULD BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH. TOOK A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH AND RAISED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
FOR REST OF CWA SO WENT NEARER CLIMO. WITH THE LOW MEANDERING
OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY KEPT THE POPS SLIGHT ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HARD TO DISTINGUISH WHERE THE BEST DYNAMIC
LIFT WILL BE. ELECTED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVER NIGHT
MORNING FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
LOWERED POPS SOME.

THIS LOW IS NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS CLOSED LOWS THAT HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA SO KEPT TEMPERATURES UP SOME FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS.

BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS THE LOW FINALLY SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
AREAS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE EC IS FASTER IN EXITING THE LOW
WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
ABOUT 17-18Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE WINDS SHIFT AS EARLY AS 16-17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH AREAS OF LOW RH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SPRING STORM WHICH ARRIVES
FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE COOLER AND MORE
MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030324
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
924 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING TUESDAY...BRINGING
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN UT
THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SHEARING REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW LINGER
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER. THIS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THESE ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRY AND
STABILIZE THROUGH TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED...AND THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE AZ BORDER
SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH FORECAST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED AROUND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 022206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING
TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS
HELPED INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAVE
PRIMARILY REMAINED CLEAR AND DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WEAK
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SOLAR HEATING IS
LOST...SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING
TUESDAY...WITH A CONSIDERABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. WARMING WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MIXING IMPROVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE...THOUGH WARMING THURSDAY COULD BE HINDERED A BIT BY
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA IN EARNEST BEGINNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...THE ELONGATED TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
WITH A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WHEN COOLER AIR AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY BE JUST THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS TO CREATE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW CENTER IS ON THE SLOW SIDE...AS LINGERING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT THIS WELL.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY...THE GFS BEGINS TO EJECT THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE THE EC SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES THE TROUGH...BOTH WHILE HOLDING ON
TO A CUT OFF LOW. SEVERAL VORT LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY CREATING SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH
BEFORE COMPLETELY EJECTING THE TROUGH SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER MONDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE SAGGING
TROUGH EXITS AND HOW RAPIDLY RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0400 UTC.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
STATE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER
AND MOISTER WEATHER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...DEWEY
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021608
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1008 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CA/NV BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IS RESULTING IN SOME
CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN
EXCESS OF 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS BROAD PACIFIC LOW IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW CLIMO.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN
16Z AND 17Z. SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE VALLEY AND A
SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 020945
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SHEAR ZONE ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A
SOUTHWESTERLY 90-125KT JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
PLAINS. GOES/HRRR/00Z KSLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES FROM 0.15"-0.30" MOUNTAINS TO 0.40"- 0.60" MOST
VALLEYS.

CANYON WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT...WAS
ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A SHEAR ZONE
ALOFT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WAVE.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE BOOK CLIFFS OR
UINTA MOUNTAINS. SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS WITHING THE MIDLEVELS...WITH BUFKIT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THEREFORE SOME OF THE CONVECTION
COULD POSE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING TO GUST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS IN PARTICULAR IN ADVANCE OF A SPLITTING PACIFIC
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z THURSDAY)...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER PLAINS WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH MOVES ONTO
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD AREA OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL MEAN WEAK
DYNAMICS OVERALL...BUT CLOSER TO THE NEVADA BORDER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY INITIATE SOME MINOR
CONVECTION.

BETWEEN 06Z FRIDAY AND 18Z FRIDAY BOTH THE EC AND GFS ELONGATE THE
CLOSED LOW MORE EAST-WEST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THIS LOBE WILL ROTATE COUNTER CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY. SO WITH THE LACK OF DYNAMICALLY LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOBE MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH THIS FEATURE IDENTIFIED BY BOTH MODELS...BELIEVE MOST
OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT IT IS LIKELY WE`LL NEED TO BOOST THE POPS
EVEN MORE.

THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LOBES ROTATING AROUND WILL
BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NOT KNOWING THE EXACT TIMING WAS NOT ABLE TO
PINPOINT WHERE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIP WILL BE. THEREFORE HAVE
USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH AND PUSHED POPS ABOVE CLIMO.

BY SUNDAY THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION IS EAST OF THE CWA BUT A MOIST
WRAP AROUND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS AND MOUNTAINS. A FINAL LOBE IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP AROUND THIS EXITING LOW BY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17 AND 18Z THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SPRING STORM WHICH ARRIVES FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND MORE MOIST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 020337
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
937 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE REMNANT OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

STRENGTHENING OF THE STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE RIDGE CRESTS ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE NEAR 700MB FLOW COULD GENERATE ONE
FINAL BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...AND
IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE CACHE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE STRONG WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT PLAY OUT...THOUGH SUSPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LAST EVENT.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT NOT END ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM
ADVECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN UTAH. LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS LATE IN
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND LASTING BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE
AGAIN...AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE STABLE NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 020337
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
937 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE REMNANT OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

STRENGTHENING OF THE STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE RIDGE CRESTS ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE NEAR 700MB FLOW COULD GENERATE ONE
FINAL BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...AND
IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE CACHE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE STRONG WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT PLAY OUT...THOUGH SUSPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LAST EVENT.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT NOT END ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM
ADVECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN UTAH. LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS LATE IN
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND LASTING BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE
AGAIN...AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE STABLE NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 012155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE NORTH OF AN
ELONGATING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SIERRA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ARE
SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS...THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY SPINNING
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE 700MB FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION HAVE ABATED
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT EASTERLY COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH WEAKER COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT AND A WEAKER GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED LOW END WARING GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FARMINGTON AREA WANTED TO EMPHASIZE
THIS EVENT WILL BE MUCH SMALLER IN MAGNITUDE AND AS SUCH WENT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF UTAH...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
WHATS LEFT OF THIS AXIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL RESIDE NORTH OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS.

BY TUESDAY RIDING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 80F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BY EARLY
FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORT LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT SLC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BY 03Z THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 012155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE NORTH OF AN
ELONGATING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SIERRA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ARE
SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS...THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY SPINNING
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE 700MB FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION HAVE ABATED
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT EASTERLY COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH WEAKER COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT AND A WEAKER GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED LOW END WARING GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FARMINGTON AREA WANTED TO EMPHASIZE
THIS EVENT WILL BE MUCH SMALLER IN MAGNITUDE AND AS SUCH WENT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF UTAH...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
WHATS LEFT OF THIS AXIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL RESIDE NORTH OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS.

BY TUESDAY RIDING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 80F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BY EARLY
FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORT LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT SLC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BY 03Z THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011510
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE
INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A
SOMEWHAT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED
ENHANCE EASTERLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UT RESULTING
IN A STOUT DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
DAVIS COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. 700MB EASTERLY FLOW
AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO ABATE SOMEWHAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
DISRUPT THE CRITICAL LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A
MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.

WINDS ACROSS THE CACHE VALLEY HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE. THESE TOO SHOULD
ABATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH AFTER AN INITIAL
BURST SATURDAY EVENING WINDS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE SALT LAKE VALLEY...AND NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED
ACROSS UTAH COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT EARLIER...AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY BY LATE MORNING IF WINDS REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH.

700MB EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY SEE A SECONDARY SPIKE IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING...ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG
AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 45-50 MPH LOCALLY NEAR FARMINGTON/CENTERVILLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE GOING HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EVENING HOURS LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE RADAR
GAP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UT...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DUE TO NEARBY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL 18Z - 19Z BEFORE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST. PERIODS OF ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 19Z - 20Z WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 25-30KTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ001-003.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011145
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
545 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE
INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS
MORNING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WITH A DEEP-
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 11MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KLND AND KSLC WHILE MODELS
INDICATE H7 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KT ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE ALONG
WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT OF AROUND 5-6C. AS A RESULT...STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH MANY AREAS PEAKING JUST
RECENTLY. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED FARMINGTON AND CENTERVILLE
AREAS. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WEAKER AND
MORE LOCALIZED. IN THE CACHE VALLEY AND SALT LAKE VALLEYS GUSTS HAVE
REACHED THE 40-50 MPH RANGE BUT MOSTLY NEAR CANYONS. WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS. IN UTAH COUNTY HOWEVER...THE WINDS
HAVE NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS DID TREND UPWARD
IN PROVO CANYON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE THERE WITH THE IDEA THAT LOCALIZED STRONGER CANYON
WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MORNING HOURS SINCE WINDS IN
GENERAL ARE STILL PEAKING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT UTAH COUNTY
COULD ESCAPE WITHOUT SEEING THE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.

A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS H7
WINDS AND THERMAL PACKING RELAX A BIT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT
WIND SPEEDS...EVEN WITH A MODERATE DECREASE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
QUITE GUSTY. THE WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AS SUPPORT ALOFT WANES LEAVING ONLY THE
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT.

BESIDES WINDS...SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND FILL BEFORE
IT GETS THERE. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED...LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF EASTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AS WELL
AS SOUTHEAST UTAH.

TOMORROW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO ARIZONA. WITH THE
AIRMASS STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH SOME MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY)...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENT TO ACHIEVE A
WELL MIXED AIR MASS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT UPPER 80S IN DIXIE. EC
TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUT DO NOT SEE WHAT IS
DRIVING THAT SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. BY THURSDAY...THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS BARELY MOVED EAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AS IT PINCHES OFF
AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH TEMPS REMAINING VERY
WARM...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION UTAH WHERE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS
EXPECTED DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME 700MB COOLING.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS BARELY INTO SOUTHERN CAL BUT A LOBE
OF ENERGY IS SWINGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WHICH IS SEEN IN BOTH
THE GFS AND EC BUT NEITHER REALLY SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN 700MB
MOISTURE. WAS ABOUT TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY BUT
THIS LACK OF 700 MB MOISTURE IS DISCONCERTING. HAVE GONE WITH NEAR
CLIMO POPS FOR NOW.

THE CLOSED MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA SATURDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AT MID LEVELS SO KEPT
THE POPS NEARLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY. BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN SOME
AS THE 700 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES C.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY AS THE GFS DRIVES THE LOW SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS ARIZONA DUE TO AN INCOMING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE EC MOVES AND OPENS UP THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO AS
MODELS UNCERTAINTY KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NEARBY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY WANDER BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 19Z BUT EAST-SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE THE MOST DOMINANT WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT. AFTER 19Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ001-003-004.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010358
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT OFF AND RUNNING THIS EVENING. THE MOST
PRONE AREAS OF DAVIS COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH POWER OUTAGE REPORTED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGE BETWEEN SLC AND CENTRAL WYOMING ALREADY UP TO ROUGHLY
10 MB...WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE NEAR 700MB EASTERLY FLOW LIKELY TOOK THE EXPECTED JUMP EARLY
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE 700MB WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR 40 KNOTS
...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 50 KTS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF THE STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
RIDGE CREST OF THE NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE WILL HELP DEFLECT
MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE PEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER A
BROADER AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT AND THE CACHE VALLEY BECOMING MORE ENGAGED IN THE EVENT AT
THAT TIME.

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PEAK WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST GFS IS A BIT QUICKER MOVING THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
UTAH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN. HAVE
SHOWED INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL...
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE DUE TO NEARBY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. OVERALL THE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTS NEAR
25 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ001-003-004.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





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