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000
FXUS65 KSLC 041514
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
914 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS DEPICT A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CIRCULATION
CENTER NOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
UTAH...WITH TRENDS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST AS POSITION
OF HIGH IS ALLOWING PWAT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH TO SURGE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY A MID LEVEL WAVE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW RESIDES OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LIFTING NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND INTO TOMORROW.

NOTED SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AM BENEATH THE SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT/MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THOSE AREAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH ANY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST...WILL REMAIN QUITE SUPPRESSED. EXPECTING BULK
OF FORCING/INSTABILITY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT/NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH AN UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNSET...AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION A
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THIS
POTENTIAL ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

COPIOUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. DROPPED THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOST PRONE MTNS
SUCH AS BOULDER MTN AREA AS SUCH. HEATING OF THE DAY AND A NET
THINNING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
LIFTS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A
THREAT DUE TO A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD LAYER...MINIMAL
SHEAR AND PWATS OVER AN INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER THE IDAHO BORDER REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS DRYING ALOFT BEGINS
TO THIN OUT MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DECAY BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE UNDER
THE RIDGE.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING
AS IT RIDES NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC FORCING OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE STORM GRAZING THE
AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY BY THIS POINT TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM. THESE STRONGER WINDS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS WELL ABOVE
7000FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE EVENING
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH WETTING RAIN ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH AND HUMIDITY UP A
BIT.

AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TRENDING
HUMIDITY LOWER. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND...THOUGH WETTING
RAIN BECOMES LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES HIGHER
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MERRILL/VERZELLA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 041514
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
914 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS DEPICT A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CIRCULATION
CENTER NOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
UTAH...WITH TRENDS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST AS POSITION
OF HIGH IS ALLOWING PWAT IN EXCESS OF AN INCH TO SURGE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY A MID LEVEL WAVE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW RESIDES OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LIFTING NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND INTO TOMORROW.

NOTED SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AM BENEATH THE SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT/MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THOSE AREAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH ANY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST...WILL REMAIN QUITE SUPPRESSED. EXPECTING BULK
OF FORCING/INSTABILITY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT/NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH AN UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY ARRIVING TOWARDS SUNSET...AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION A
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THIS
POTENTIAL ON THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

COPIOUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. DROPPED THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOST PRONE MTNS
SUCH AS BOULDER MTN AREA AS SUCH. HEATING OF THE DAY AND A NET
THINNING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
LIFTS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A
THREAT DUE TO A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD LAYER...MINIMAL
SHEAR AND PWATS OVER AN INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER THE IDAHO BORDER REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS DRYING ALOFT BEGINS
TO THIN OUT MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DECAY BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE UNDER
THE RIDGE.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING
AS IT RIDES NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC FORCING OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE STORM GRAZING THE
AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY BY THIS POINT TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM. THESE STRONGER WINDS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS WELL ABOVE
7000FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE EVENING
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH WETTING RAIN ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH AND HUMIDITY UP A
BIT.

AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TRENDING
HUMIDITY LOWER. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND...THOUGH WETTING
RAIN BECOMES LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES HIGHER
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MERRILL/VERZELLA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040927
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FOUR
CORNERS...PLACING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-95KT NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A CYCLONIC JET WAS LOCATED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO CALIFORNIA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.45"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"-1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED TODAY BY AN IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHWEST FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STORM MOTION IS MEAGER...DECENT
WARM RAIN CLOUD LAYER AND DEWPOINTS 55-60F ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TRAINING. HOWEVER THERE IS COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER SO OPTED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE INSTEAD CARRIED A
MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH.

THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS DEFINITELY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. UP NORTH...WEATHER LIKELY
WONT BE TOO EXCITING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS SUNSET.
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO NORTHERN UTAH WILL CARRY THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND BEFORE HEADING OUT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER THE IDAHO BORDER REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS DRYING ALOFT BEGINS
TO THIN OUT MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DECAY BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE UNDER
THE RIDGE.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING
AS IT RIDES NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC FORCING OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE STORM GRAZING THE
AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY BY THIS POINT TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM. THESE STRONGER WINDS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS WELL ABOVE
7000FT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST BEGINNING BETWEEN 18-20Z.
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH WETTING RAIN ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH AND HUMIDITY UP A
BIT.

AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TRENDING
HUMIDITY LOWER. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND...THOUGH WETTING
RAIN BECOMES LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES HIGHER
BASED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040927
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FOUR
CORNERS...PLACING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-95KT NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A CYCLONIC JET WAS LOCATED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO CALIFORNIA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.45"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"-1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED TODAY BY AN IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHWEST FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STORM MOTION IS MEAGER...DECENT
WARM RAIN CLOUD LAYER AND DEWPOINTS 55-60F ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TRAINING. HOWEVER THERE IS COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER SO OPTED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE INSTEAD CARRIED A
MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH.

THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS DEFINITELY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. UP NORTH...WEATHER LIKELY
WONT BE TOO EXCITING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS SUNSET.
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO NORTHERN UTAH WILL CARRY THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND BEFORE HEADING OUT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER THE IDAHO BORDER REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS DRYING ALOFT BEGINS
TO THIN OUT MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DECAY BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE UNDER
THE RIDGE.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING
AS IT RIDES NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC FORCING OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE STORM GRAZING THE
AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY BY THIS POINT TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM. THESE STRONGER WINDS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS WELL ABOVE
7000FT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST BEGINNING BETWEEN 18-20Z.
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH WETTING RAIN ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH AND HUMIDITY UP A
BIT.

AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TRENDING
HUMIDITY LOWER. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND...THOUGH WETTING
RAIN BECOMES LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES HIGHER
BASED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 040927
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
327 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FOUR
CORNERS...PLACING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AHEAD
OF A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-95KT NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A CYCLONIC JET WAS LOCATED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO CALIFORNIA. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.45"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"-1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED TODAY BY AN IMPULSE RIDING
NORTHWEST FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STORM MOTION IS MEAGER...DECENT
WARM RAIN CLOUD LAYER AND DEWPOINTS 55-60F ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TRAINING. HOWEVER THERE IS COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER SO OPTED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE INSTEAD CARRIED A
MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH.

THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS DEFINITELY NEED TO
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. UP NORTH...WEATHER LIKELY
WONT BE TOO EXCITING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS SUNSET.
CONVECTION LIFTING INTO NORTHERN UTAH WILL CARRY THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND BEFORE HEADING OUT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER THE IDAHO BORDER REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS DRYING ALOFT BEGINS
TO THIN OUT MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DECAY BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE UNDER
THE RIDGE.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO STORM SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UTAH DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...THE DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING
AS IT RIDES NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC FORCING OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE STORM GRAZING THE
AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY BY THIS POINT TO
ALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM. THESE STRONGER WINDS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THEN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS WELL ABOVE
7000FT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST BEGINNING BETWEEN 18-20Z.
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS IS EXPECTED LATE
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW LIGHTNING STARTS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH WETTING RAIN ONLY GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH AND HUMIDITY UP A
BIT.

AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TRENDING
HUMIDITY LOWER. CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AROUND...THOUGH WETTING
RAIN BECOMES LESS OF A POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY BECOMES HIGHER
BASED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040538
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1138 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN MOISTURE INFLUX OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...AS PER 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGOWSKI
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 040538
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1138 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN MOISTURE INFLUX OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...AS PER 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGOWSKI
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONGER/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040430
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040430
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 040430
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 040430
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 032208
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING
DEEP MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SLIGHT NORTHEAST SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH LOCATION NEARLY BISECTING
THE STATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ATTM. SAID RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS THE DELINEATION BETWEEN A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS BENEATH
AND TO ITS SOUTH AND WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER MOVING INTO THE WEST DESERTS OUT OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
WITHIN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AND LESS SUPPRESSED ENVIRONMENT.
THOSE TWO AREAS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INPUT/HEATING BUT
ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE AXIS TO
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT AS SUCH AND LIKELY BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF
THE WASATCH FRONT/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...TRACKING NORTH. PRESENCE OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
TRIGGER AND LIFT LATE DAY AND ANTICIPATE GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH CAN BE HARD TO RESOLVE IN MODELS...AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE KEY TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TOMORROW EVE/NIGHT AND
SOME SPREAD DOES EXIST REGARDING THIS...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
RAISE POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WORDING MOST AREAS TOMORROW EVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES. TEMPS ALL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GETTING OUT OF THE 80S IN KSLC
MAY BE CHALLENGING.

CONVERGENT NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE GETS PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND EXITS EAST. FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND GREATEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
KEEP MAXES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO START TO NOSE INTO WESTERN UTAH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM ONSHORE EARLY
THURSDAY...WHILE THIS OCCURS A BIT LATER IN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT WEAKENS NEXT
WEEKEND...SHOWING UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT KSLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN
03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/TRAPHAGAN/SEAMAN


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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 032208
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING
DEEP MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SLIGHT NORTHEAST SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH LOCATION NEARLY BISECTING
THE STATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ATTM. SAID RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS THE DELINEATION BETWEEN A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS BENEATH
AND TO ITS SOUTH AND WEST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER MOVING INTO THE WEST DESERTS OUT OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
WITHIN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AND LESS SUPPRESSED ENVIRONMENT.
THOSE TWO AREAS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INPUT/HEATING BUT
ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE AXIS TO
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT AS SUCH AND LIKELY BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF
THE WASATCH FRONT/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
ADDITIONALLY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...TRACKING NORTH. PRESENCE OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
TRIGGER AND LIFT LATE DAY AND ANTICIPATE GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH CAN BE HARD TO RESOLVE IN MODELS...AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE KEY TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TOMORROW EVE/NIGHT AND
SOME SPREAD DOES EXIST REGARDING THIS...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
RAISE POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WORDING MOST AREAS TOMORROW EVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WAVE PASSES. TEMPS ALL AREAS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GETTING OUT OF THE 80S IN KSLC
MAY BE CHALLENGING.

CONVERGENT NEAR WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE GETS PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND EXITS EAST. FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND GREATEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO
KEEP MAXES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO START TO NOSE INTO WESTERN UTAH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM ONSHORE EARLY
THURSDAY...WHILE THIS OCCURS A BIT LATER IN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT WEAKENS NEXT
WEEKEND...SHOWING UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT. FOR
NOW...HAVE INDICATED A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT KSLC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN
03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/TRAPHAGAN/SEAMAN


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031548
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
948 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE
ELONGATED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN STATES THIS
MORNING...WITH SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. SAID AXIS REMAINS A DELINEATION OF ELEVATED
PWAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. COPIOUS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EXIST BENEATH AND ALONG THIS ZONE AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AXIS /AND ESPECIALLY THE PERIPHERIES OF/ TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION AS HEATING OF THE DAY ENSUES. PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF .9 TO 1 INCH ALONG THIS AXIS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS TO THE NEVADA BORDER LATE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DOES EXIST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE
NORM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AXIS NORTH AND EAST
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SPREADING THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER TO ROUGHLY IBAPAH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE WEST DESERTS THIS EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT
HAS BEEN RESOLVED IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z EC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE NOW THAN THE 00Z GFS SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THEN PUMP UP SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SF BAY
AREA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING DROP LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER TOO MUCH BY MIDWEEK WITH
THE DRIER AIR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP A HOT
AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE THEN WILL
SPREAD NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOCAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MERRILL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHENG/WILENSKY


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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031548
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
948 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE
ELONGATED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN STATES THIS
MORNING...WITH SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. SAID AXIS REMAINS A DELINEATION OF ELEVATED
PWAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. COPIOUS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EXIST BENEATH AND ALONG THIS ZONE AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AXIS /AND ESPECIALLY THE PERIPHERIES OF/ TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION AS HEATING OF THE DAY ENSUES. PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF .9 TO 1 INCH ALONG THIS AXIS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS TO THE NEVADA BORDER LATE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DOES EXIST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE
NORM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AXIS NORTH AND EAST
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...THIS SPREADING THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTH ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER TO ROUGHLY IBAPAH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE WEST DESERTS THIS EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT
HAS BEEN RESOLVED IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z EC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE NOW THAN THE 00Z GFS SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THEN PUMP UP SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SF BAY
AREA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING DROP LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER TOO MUCH BY MIDWEEK WITH
THE DRIER AIR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP A HOT
AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE THEN WILL
SPREAD NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOCAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MERRILL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHENG/WILENSKY


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000
FXUS65 KSLC 031116
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
515 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ELONGATED NW-SE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TO THE TUNE OF
AROUND 0.9-1.1 INCHES OF PWAT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS WITH AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF PWAT IS NOTED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS ELONGATED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT UTAH.
ALTHOUGH THIS MEANS THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL
NO LONGER BE AVAILABLE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH...THE
AIRMASS WILL STILL RETAIN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE PWATS TODAY WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...STORMS SHOULD IN GENERAL BE A BIT
WEAKER AND SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE...BUT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...WITH PERSISTENCE BEING A
REASONABLE FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS.

THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT
HAS BEEN RESOLVED IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z EC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE NOW THAN THE 00Z GFS SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THEN PUMP UP SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SF BAY
AREA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING DROP LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER TOO MUCH BY MIDWEEK WITH
THE DRIER AIR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP A HOT
AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE THEN WILL
SPREAD NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOCAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030342
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OREGON...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND ENDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP IN THE STILL MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PRODUCED DEEP AND SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH GENERATED SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN KANE
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLE AT MID-EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THE MEAN LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST UTAH LATER IN THE
DAY. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN IN THESE AREAS
BASED ON THE WEAK MEAN LAYER FLOW AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA.

NORTHERN UTAH COULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AT
THAT AREA OF THE STATE REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. COULD SEE A FEW CELLS WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE IN
THE DAY...BUT DOUBT THAT SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.

LOOKING AT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH REFORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOKING AT A MODEST COOLING
TREND OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT MID-EVENING WILL WORK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030342
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OREGON...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND ENDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP IN THE STILL MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PRODUCED DEEP AND SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH GENERATED SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN KANE
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLE AT MID-EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THE MEAN LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST UTAH LATER IN THE
DAY. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN IN THESE AREAS
BASED ON THE WEAK MEAN LAYER FLOW AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA.

NORTHERN UTAH COULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AT
THAT AREA OF THE STATE REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. COULD SEE A FEW CELLS WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE IN
THE DAY...BUT DOUBT THAT SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.

LOOKING AT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH REFORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOKING AT A MODEST COOLING
TREND OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT MID-EVENING WILL WORK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030342
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OREGON...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND ENDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS AND FORM INTO A CLOSED
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP IN THE STILL MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PRODUCED DEEP AND SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH GENERATED SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN KANE
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLE AT MID-EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY THE MEAN LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST UTAH LATER IN THE
DAY. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN IN THESE AREAS
BASED ON THE WEAK MEAN LAYER FLOW AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA.

NORTHERN UTAH COULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AGAIN FRIDAY AT
THAT AREA OF THE STATE REMAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. COULD SEE A FEW CELLS WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE IN
THE DAY...BUT DOUBT THAT SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.

LOOKING AT A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH REFORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOKING AT A MODEST COOLING
TREND OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT MID-EVENING WILL WORK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 022151
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. UP TO THIS POINT MOST OF THESE
STORMS HAVE REMAINED ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER MAY
SEE A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITH TIME WHICH WOULD TAKE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CEDAR CITY...ST GEORGE...ZION AND KANAB AREAS.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN NV MAY SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
HAVE INCLUDED A LOW POP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL DRYING IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD
STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NV EASTWARD INTO WESTERN UT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
MAINTAINED AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW...ABATING PRECIPITATION AND NUDGING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THOUGH PW VALUES DROP A BIT
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE REMAIN TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WESTERLIES PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UT/ID BORDER...ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION.

DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP STATEWIDE AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FURTHER TAMP
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...REDUCE RH VALUES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA/TRAPHAGAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 022151
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. UP TO THIS POINT MOST OF THESE
STORMS HAVE REMAINED ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER MAY
SEE A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITH TIME WHICH WOULD TAKE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CEDAR CITY...ST GEORGE...ZION AND KANAB AREAS.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN NV MAY SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
HAVE INCLUDED A LOW POP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL DRYING IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD
STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NV EASTWARD INTO WESTERN UT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
MAINTAINED AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW...ABATING PRECIPITATION AND NUDGING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THOUGH PW VALUES DROP A BIT
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE REMAIN TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WESTERLIES PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UT/ID BORDER...ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION.

DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP STATEWIDE AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FURTHER TAMP
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...REDUCE RH VALUES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 022151
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. UP TO THIS POINT MOST OF THESE
STORMS HAVE REMAINED ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
STRUGGLING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER MAY
SEE A SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITH TIME WHICH WOULD TAKE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CEDAR CITY...ST GEORGE...ZION AND KANAB AREAS.

MEANWHILE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN NV MAY SPREAD INTO FAR WESTERN UT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
HAVE INCLUDED A LOW POP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL DRYING IN THE FAR SOUTH WOULD
STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NV EASTWARD INTO WESTERN UT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. AS SUCH HAVE
MAINTAINED AN UPWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z MONDAY)...THE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW...ABATING PRECIPITATION AND NUDGING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. THOUGH PW VALUES DROP A BIT
OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE REMAIN TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WESTERLIES PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UT/ID BORDER...ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN THIS REGION.

DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP STATEWIDE AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING
ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AIRMASS WILL FURTHER TAMP
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...REDUCE RH VALUES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 021540
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF NV THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS RIDGE
AXIS A COMBINATION OF PW IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS AXIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS MAINTAINED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND HAVE BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER AS RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BURNS OFF THIS
AFTERNOON ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES REMAINING IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH A
DRIER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO OVER THE HIGH UINTAS.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS EXIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
BY 17Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 020201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
801 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE ELONGATING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 75-90KT NORTHWESERLY JET FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.45" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEPT MUCH ACTIVITY FROM GETTING GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT PER RADAR TRENDS
AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR-3KM.

OTHERWISE UTILIZED COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND LAMP GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CURVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. STILL THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING SO HAVE NOT CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE
BIT COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL DRAW
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE
SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING ONTO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE TREND WELL AND DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 012110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND
1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL
THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO HAVE NOT
CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
THE WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS
MOISTURE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING
ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
TREND WELL AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 012110
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NEVADA. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH PWS AROUND
1.0 INCH. THE REPOSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE N/NW FLOW...AND THIS IS ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO START
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL
THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO HAVE NOT
CHANGED POPS MUCH. MAXES ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.
BECAUSE OF THIS...COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD SO LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...BUT
MAXES SHOULD START TO WARM AGAIN WITH 100F POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
THE WASATCH FRONT.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO S/SW. THIS WILL
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THOUGH GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THIS
MOISTURE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...GFS/EC TODAY ARE BACK TO HOLDING
ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
TREND WELL AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING
UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
SERVE TO REDUCE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RECENTERING OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PEAK ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMALS
WITH  RH VALUES LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO COOLER MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
BETTER NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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