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000
FXUS65 KSLC 120246
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
746 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEST.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 80-135KT ANTICYCLONIC
JET FROM WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. GOES/HRRR/GPS/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15"-0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.35"-0.50"
NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES. THE BASE OF THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 850MB WITH A
STRENGTH OF 10.7C...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ITS HOLD OVER THE WEST DESERT AND INTO THE
WASATCH FRONT...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED DUE TO CIRRUS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP THE FOG FROM
BECOMING SO DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HAVE ADJUSTED FOG WORDING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKESHORE
AND BENCHES WHERE TERRAIN INTERSECTS STRATUS. DID THE SAME ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SANPETE VALLEY WHERE PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN SOME OF THE WORSE VISIBILITIES...ADJACENT TO UTAH VALLEY.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/RH AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND LAMP
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT
700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 5C ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION SITES CONTINUE
TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER VALLEYS OF MAINLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE THE STRATUS ERODING A
BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORCAL COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT WAVE AND WEAK
JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LARGELY
LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING
INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS
SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE TIME QUITE A BIT
SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME
WITHIN THE 09Z-14Z WINDOW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/MERRILL
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 112316
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB REMAIN QUITE MILD...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2
TO 5C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MOST HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOWER
VALLEYS OF MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MIRED IN
INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. SATELLITE TRENDS DO INDICATE
THE STRATUS ERODING A BIT ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. NOT ISSUING ANY FOG HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.
RATHER...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE THESE STORMS ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP AWAY THE INVERSIONS.
RATHER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE INVERSIONS FROM
ABOVE. THE SATURDAY STORM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PUT A SMALL DENT IN
THE INVERSION AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...USHER IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS SO AS A
RESULT THE INVERSIONS MAY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE AWAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE LATEST EC COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE STORM
THAN THE 00Z RUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
AIR QUALITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE NORCAL COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK JET SUPPORT ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
LARGELY LOOKING AT A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AND PARTIALLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING. AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL TREND TO SHIFT INLAND AND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENT
WARMING...THIS LIKELY STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SAID...NET STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND RESIDENCE
TIME QUITE A BIT SHORTER.

GLOBAL MODELS DO PICK UP ON A NET PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL DRIVING AT LEAST THE REMNANT ENERGY OF AN
ADEQUATE TROUGH INLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
EVOLUTION...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HAVING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IN THE THU OR FRI
TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA AT THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING PASSAGE MAY HAVE A NOTABLE AFFECT ON THE
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE/FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS IS UNLIKELY TO THIN AT
THIS POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CREEP
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A 60
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 111623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE
MILD CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. FOG AND HAZE
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THESE VALLEY AREAS TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MANY AREAS BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER IN
UTAH COUNTY PARTICULARLY NEAR UTAH LAKE AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR NEAR FILLMORE. HAVE EARLIER
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT
THROUGH NOON...OTHERWISE NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE. FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES DEPRESSED IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY.

A COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
INVERSIONS FROM ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE FOG AND HAZE...ALTHOUGH A WELL MIXED AIRMASS MAY REMAIN
ELUSIVE IN THE VALLEYS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO REDUCE DENSE FOG WORDING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND LOW STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO LOW END
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES IN THE 21-02Z WINDOW...BUT ONLY A 20 CHANCE
EXISTS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL THIN AND SCATTER DURING THAT TIME
MAINTAINING IFR CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT...AND A
60 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT THIS FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD SOMETIME WITHIN THE 09-14Z WINDOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR UTZ004.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 111135
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATUS/FOG/HAZE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN UTAH AS MIXING REMAINS POOR UNDERNEATH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FIRST OF
A LEAST TWO SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
ITS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO ENTIRELY BREAK DOWN THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ALSO WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE VERY STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE MORE SUCCESS BREAKING UP THE
INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTH...THOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING ALOFT.
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT AS THE BULK
OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE STABLE RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE IN PART TO A SHORT WAVE FEATURE
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH BY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PRECEDING
WEEKEND. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 700MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SEEMS TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS. WITH THE GFS
HINTING AT A WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF...BOTH ARE
PORTRAYING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE
HAVING A SPLIT NATURE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO SEE LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG.
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER BETWEEN 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001-004-
     015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 110521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...THE MAIN
WEATHER RELATED ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF UTAH. DENSE FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
DELTA...FILLMORE...LOGAN...PROVO AND NEPHI AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN PATCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT...THE
CACHE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL ADD THOSE LOCATIONS
IF NECESSARY.

GIVEN THE DENSE FOG IN THE CACHE AND SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS...UPDATED THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL EXPECTING LOW IFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LIFR IN
FOG...SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 02Z THURSDAY EVENING...BUT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR UTZ001-004-015.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 102233
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEST. AMDAR
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-160KT ANTICYCLONIC JET
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z
SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN
0.05"-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30" NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES.

HAVE CONCERNS THAT IF WE CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...THAT A
DENSE FOG BANK WILL SLOSH BACK INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH
SUNSET.

THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 846MB WITH A STRENGTH OF 11.5C. HAVE
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG/STRATUS DEPICTION. WENT WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG FOR MANY VALLEYS...BACKING OFF TO PATCHY FOG DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY ERODE AT EDGES SUCH AS ALONG WASATCH
FRONT AND CEDAR CITY DURING THE DAYTIME...BUT WENT WITH MORE
PESSIMISTIC CLOUD CONDITIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY PERSISTENT IN STRONGLY INVERTED
VALLEYS...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS BEING MORE OF A BRUSH-BY FOR UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FAR NORTH AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THE BIGGER
QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ON LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHILE COOL
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY HELP WEAKEN THESE INVERSIONS...THE STORM DOES
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO TRULY SCOOP OUT THE VALLEYS.

TRENDED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARD THE IDEA OF WEAKER BUT STILL
CONTINUING INVERSIONS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER IMPACT FOR
TEMPERATURES MAY BE THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT MOVES INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT PERIODS...COMBINED WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MAY BE ENOUGH TO
MODIFY THE TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW A SLOW WARMING TREND. HAVE BUILT
THIS WARMING TREND INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE RE-CENTERS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME WEAK INVERSIONS TO RE-FORM...BUT THE WARMER PRE-RIDGE
AIRMASS AND HIGHER MID-FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM BEING AS COLD AS THE CURRENT ONGOING INVERSION.
INCREASED MIXING COULD ALSO BE IN THE CARDS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT IF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEN THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT...POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR THUS FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED AT TIMES BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z...BUT IN GENERAL IFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR DENSE FOG TO
BEGIN IS BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IFR FOG
COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 00-03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 101548
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
848 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-160KT
ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30"
NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 846MB WITH A STRENGTH OF 11.5C. HAVE
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG/STRATUS DEPICTION. THROUGH THE
MORNING WENT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR MANY VALLEYS...BACKING OF
TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY ERODE AT EDGES SUCH
AS ALONG WASATCH FRONT AND CEDAR CITY THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY PERSISTENT IN STRONGLY INVERTED
VALLEYS...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF
THE STRATUS AROUND THE PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT
MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN 12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS
WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS
COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES
C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN
HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ERASING THE
INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND OTHER VALLEY
WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR AROUND 17-19Z...THOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR WORSE WILL LINGER PAST
19Z. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE RUNWAYS IS 06Z-10Z...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE FOG COULD RETURN FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS EARLY AS 00-03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 101548
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
848 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-160KT
ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30"
NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 846MB WITH A STRENGTH OF 11.5C. HAVE
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG/STRATUS DEPICTION. THROUGH THE
MORNING WENT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR MANY VALLEYS...BACKING OF
TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY ERODE AT EDGES SUCH
AS ALONG WASATCH FRONT AND CEDAR CITY THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY PERSISTENT IN STRONGLY INVERTED
VALLEYS...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF
THE STRATUS AROUND THE PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT
MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN 12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS
WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS
COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES
C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN
HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ERASING THE
INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND OTHER VALLEY
WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR AROUND 17-19Z...THOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR WORSE WILL LINGER PAST
19Z. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE RUNWAYS IS 06Z-10Z...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE FOG COULD RETURN FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS EARLY AS 00-03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 101548
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
848 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-160KT
ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.
GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30"
NORTHERN/WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 846MB WITH A STRENGTH OF 11.5C. HAVE
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG/STRATUS DEPICTION. THROUGH THE
MORNING WENT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR MANY VALLEYS...BACKING OF
TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY ERODE AT EDGES SUCH
AS ALONG WASATCH FRONT AND CEDAR CITY THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY PERSISTENT IN STRONGLY INVERTED
VALLEYS...WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF
THE STRATUS AROUND THE PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT
MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN 12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS
WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS
COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES
C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN
HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ERASING THE
INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND OTHER VALLEY
WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR AROUND 17-19Z...THOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR WORSE WILL LINGER PAST
19Z. DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
DENSE FOG TO RETURN TO THE RUNWAYS IS 06Z-10Z...THOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE FOG COULD RETURN FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS EARLY AS 00-03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 101146
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT
EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF THE STRATUS AROUND THE
PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN
AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A
TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE
THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER
SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN
12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION
FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR
INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ERASING THE INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND
OTHER VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL HAVE PERIODS OF VLIFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 17-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 18Z TO 01Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DENSE FOG AFTER ABOUT 03Z OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE SLC
TERMINAL AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRFIELD AFTER 05-06Z. WINDS WILL NOT
BE A FACTOR AS SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 101146
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT
EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF THE STRATUS AROUND THE
PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN
AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A
TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE
THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER
SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN
12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION
FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR
INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ERASING THE INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND
OTHER VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL HAVE PERIODS OF VLIFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 17-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 18Z TO 01Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DENSE FOG AFTER ABOUT 03Z OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE SLC
TERMINAL AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRFIELD AFTER 05-06Z. WINDS WILL NOT
BE A FACTOR AS SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 101146
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRATUS THAT
EXPANDED RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DESERT YESTERDAY NOW
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT SOME EROSION OF THE STRATUS AROUND THE
PERIMETER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THIS WILL RETURN
AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDERNEATH THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE
NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE. SUSPECT THAT FOG WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE IN
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS LONG AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE GREAT BASIN.

A SERIES OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVES WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY KNOCK
DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH LIFT COULD BE GENERATED BY
THESE PASSING FEATURES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT COULD
WEAKEN OVER EVEN MIX OUT ENTIRELY THE VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED BY A
TROUGH THAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ERADICATE
THE INVERSION ACCORDING TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ONCE COLDER
SOLUTION (THE EC) IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM MORE THAN
12 HRS AGO. THE FACT THAT THE GFS WENT AWAY FROM THE COLDER SOLUTION
FOR THE 12Z RUN BUT NOW HAS COME BACK TO NEARLY WHERE IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO WITH -7 TO -10 DEGREES C MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT OUR
INVERSION WILL BE BROKEN HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ERASING THE INVERSION...VALLEY TEMPS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND
OTHER VALLEY WILL BENEFIT FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH BETTER AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY DUE TO THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 IS RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD
TO ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE REBUILDS AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOOKING TROUGH
SCHEDULED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP AHEAD OF THIS LATTER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN DISPERSING
THE STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL HAVE PERIODS OF VLIFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 17-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 18Z TO 01Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DENSE FOG AFTER ABOUT 03Z OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE SLC
TERMINAL AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRFIELD AFTER 05-06Z. WINDS WILL NOT
BE A FACTOR AS SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 100350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
850 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE
UT/NV BORDER THIS EVE WITH A SOLID INVERSION IN PLACE IN MOST
VALLEYS. FOG AND STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE WEST DESERTS LAST
NIGHT FAILED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTN AND IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND
AGAIN AT THIS TIME. THE FOG THAT FORMED IN THE CACHE AND BEAR
RIVER VALLEYS DID BURN OFF BUT IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING IN THE
CACHE VALLEY AND SHOULD DO THE SAME IN THE BEAR RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS LOCALLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BOTTOMS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
AND BACK INCLUDING ALONG THE SHORES OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.

FOG DID REACH THE NORTH END OF THE RUNWAY COMPLEX AT THE SLC
AIRPORT AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL
HAPPEN AGAIN TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AIRPORT LATE TONIGHT AND WORK ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SALT LAKE VALLEY.

THE RIDGE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THRU FRI WITH MANY OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAINING THE SAME OR SIMILAR THROUGH THAT TIME.
THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE EACH DAY AND WHETHER OR NOT IT
BURNS OFF IN THE AFTERNOONS. AS OF NOW WE HAVE IT BURNING OFF
TOMORROW AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH ALL AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST DESERT.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE
SLC TERMINAL RUNWAY COMPLEX AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS FOG SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TERMINAL AT SOME
POINT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS FOG TO DEVELOP IS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 14Z...WITH ANY IMPACTS POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 092242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL
INVERSION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS
IN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAVE SUNNY SKIES...BUT SOME AREAS
OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE LINGERING OR EVEN EXPANDING...MOST NOTABLY
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST DESERT.

PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR THE FORECAST...WITH MANY OF
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAINING THE SAME OR SIMILAR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF GOING AWAY
THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
DESERT...WHICH WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THE
ONLY TIME THE SKY FORECAST CHANGES IS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TRANSIENT CIRRUS. LEFT THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WARMING TREND IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT TRIED TO SLOW THIS TREND DOWN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO
MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED TO AREAS
OF FOG ON FUTURE SHIFTS DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EC AND GFS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND TRACK IN THE 12Z RUNS. THE EC MOVES IT PAST
SOONER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND KEEPS IT FARTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO THE GFS WHERE THE SYSTEM GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH BRING SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT BECAUSE THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM FARTHER
SOUTH...THE SOLUTION IS A BIT COLDER FOR THE AREA.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT BOTH BRING SOME MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ON SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT ALSO BRINGS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN INVERSIONS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL COMPLETELY MIX
OUT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE NORTH RUNWAY OF
THE SLC TERMINAL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THIS FOG SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS FOG TO DEVELOP IS BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z...WITH ANY IMPACTS POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091724
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPANDED STRATUS DECK ACROSS
THE WEST DESSERT AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 140-170KT
ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GULF COAST.
GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES. WHILE MANY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG...WEBCAMS
INDICATE THAT FOG IS PREDOMINATELY OF THE PATCHY VARIETY. HAVE
UPDATED FOG WORDING TO INCLUDE DENSE BUT WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
DESCRIPTION THIS MORNING.

11-3.9U SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT SOME STRATUS
IS FLOATING AROUND THE WEST DESERT.

GAVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER LOOK WITH UPDATED GUIDANCE. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THAT ARE NOT SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A WARMING TREND GIVEN WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH THE IMPROVING
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC) OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME
FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND
IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES
C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN MODELS SOLUTIONS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW-END
VFR ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY
AROUND 17-19Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 KNOTS FROM ANY
DIRECTION THOROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091534
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
834 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
WEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 140-170KT
ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GULF COAST.
GOES/HRRR/GPS/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.20"-0.30" WESTERN
VALLEYS.

WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE...MAIN CONCERN IS HAZE/FOG/STRATUS AND
TEMPERATURES. WHILE MANY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG...WEBCAMS
INDICATE THAT FOG IS PREDOMINATELY OF THE PATCHY VARIETY. HAVE
UPDATED FOG WORDING TO INCLUDE DENSE BUT WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY
DESCRIPTION THIS MORNING.

11-3.9U SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT SOME STRATUS
IS FLOATING AROUND THE WEST DESERT.

GAVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER LOOK WITH UPDATED GUIDANCE. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THAT ARE NOT SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A WARMING TREND GIVEN WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH THE IMPROVING
FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG
VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC) OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME
FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND
IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES
C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN MODELS SOLUTIONS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW-END
VFR ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY
AROUND 17-19Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 KNOTS FROM ANY
DIRECTION THOROUGH TODAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC)
OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE
INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z. SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
19Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BCFG TEMPORARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST END OF 34L RUNWAY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC)
OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE
INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z. SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
19Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BCFG TEMPORARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST END OF 34L RUNWAY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 091114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VALLEY FOG TO THIS POINT HAS REMAINED LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WITH MOST OF THIS FOG IN THE CACHE VALLEY...NEAR THE
GSL AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG EXPAND A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT PUTS MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN UTAH. URBAN HAZE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH THICKENING/EXPANSION OF THE HAZE AS POLLUTION LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY CLIMB A BIT DUE TO THE WARMER START
IN THE MORNING. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DUE
TO LESS RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS BRING A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH IN THE EARLY SATURDAY (EC)
OR LATE SATURDAY (GFS) TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EC AND IS JUST SHY OF BEING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH ABOUT 16-17 DEGREES C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN H7 AND H5. THE MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TURN OVER THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
IN MODELS SOLUTIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF ERASING THE
INVERSIONS IN NORTHERN VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z. SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
19Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BCFG TEMPORARILY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST END OF 34L RUNWAY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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