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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221214
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DRIVEN BY
THE 160+ KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. SNOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING AS NEAR 700MB TEMPS HOVER JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN MIXING OUT OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE
PREDOMINATELY AS RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO CREATE A DEEPER LAYER
OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LIFT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP...THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY STAY IN RAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST UTAH BY AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IDENTIFIED BY THE
GUIDANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH COULD SIGNAL A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM PLACES
THIS THREAT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT...WHILE
THE GFS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...DRIVING SNOW-LEVELS MUCH LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG DYNAMIC/THERMALLY DRIVEN LIFT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND THE STRONG
NEAR 700MB SUPPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST UTAH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW
EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A SECOND TRAILING SHORTWAVE
WILL RE-ENERGIZE SNOW IN THE COLD/MOIST AND STILL UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AGAIN IN THE WASATCH RANGE AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD VALLEYS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GSL...AND POSSIBLY
UTAH LAKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW
SOME WEAK WARM 700MB ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE MINIMAL POPS. AFTER
THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE SO BY
THE EC THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY UNDER A SNOW COVER WELL INTO THE WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH
50 AT SLC BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT THE MEAN OF THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS TEMP COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARDS AS THE H7 TEMPS CLIMB A COUPLE MORE DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE EC APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG ON THIS WARMING SO KEPT
CLOSER TO THE GFS.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE EC INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING UNDERNEATH
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AHEAD OF WHEN THE GFS BREAKS A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND THEREFORE
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE BROAD
WEAKNESS OF THIS TROUGH...HAVE UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT STILL LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 24Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL UNTIL THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS
BELOW 7KT AFTER ABOUT 22Z. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VLIFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 221214
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE DRIVEN BY
THE 160+ KT JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. SNOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING AS NEAR 700MB TEMPS HOVER JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN MIXING OUT OVERNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE
PREDOMINATELY AS RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO CREATE A DEEPER LAYER
OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LIFT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE
PRECIP...THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY STAY IN RAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST UTAH BY AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENIC FORCING IDENTIFIED BY THE
GUIDANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH COULD SIGNAL A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM PLACES
THIS THREAT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT...WHILE
THE GFS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...DRIVING SNOW-LEVELS MUCH LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG DYNAMIC/THERMALLY DRIVEN LIFT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND THE STRONG
NEAR 700MB SUPPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS...HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST UTAH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW
EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A SECOND TRAILING SHORTWAVE
WILL RE-ENERGIZE SNOW IN THE COLD/MOIST AND STILL UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AGAIN IN THE WASATCH RANGE AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD VALLEYS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GSL...AND POSSIBLY
UTAH LAKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW
SOME WEAK WARM 700MB ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE KEPT THE MINIMAL POPS. AFTER
THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE SO BY
THE EC THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY UNDER A SNOW COVER WELL INTO THE WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH
50 AT SLC BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT THE MEAN OF THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS TEMP COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE IF EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARDS AS THE H7 TEMPS CLIMB A COUPLE MORE DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE EC APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG ON THIS WARMING SO KEPT
CLOSER TO THE GFS.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE EC INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE BREAKING UNDERNEATH
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AHEAD OF WHEN THE GFS BREAKS A SHORT WAVE
THROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND THEREFORE
HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE GFS
BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DUE TO THE BROAD
WEAKNESS OF THIS TROUGH...HAVE UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME BUT STILL LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RATHER MILD DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 24Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL UNTIL THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS
BELOW 7KT AFTER ABOUT 22Z. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VLIFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 220439
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
939 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IS
PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASING OVER UTAH AT THIS TIME...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND EVEN PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH
WILL MAXIMIZE OVER NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
THOUGH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START FILLING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING LATE.

AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN
QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
WASATCH MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT
BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND FROPA...BUT SNOW WILL FILL IN AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT EMBEDDED
IMPULSE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF LULL AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE GRAZES
NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES OFFERING UP SNOW OVER
A 2-3 DAY PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY LOCALES
WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING TO ABOUT 6000 FT AGL BETWEEN 13-15Z AS
RAIN SHOWERS CREEP CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MAY ESCALATE TO
AIRPORT WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN 13Z AND 22Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 220439
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
939 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IS
PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASING OVER UTAH AT THIS TIME...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND EVEN PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH
WILL MAXIMIZE OVER NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. FOR TONIGHT
THOUGH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START FILLING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING LATE.

AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN
QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
WASATCH MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT
BEGINNING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND FROPA...BUT SNOW WILL FILL IN AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT EMBEDDED
IMPULSE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF LULL AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE GRAZES
NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES OFFERING UP SNOW OVER
A 2-3 DAY PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY LOCALES
WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING TO ABOUT 6000 FT AGL BETWEEN 13-15Z AS
RAIN SHOWERS CREEP CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MAY ESCALATE TO
AIRPORT WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN 13Z AND 22Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 212329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...A FEW SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS REACHED MILD LEVELS WITH READINGS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD
OF THE THE VIGOROUS BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF SPREADS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THIS
WAVE INTO THE PACNW TONIGHT AND ADVANCE IT RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE
DAY SAT. A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT CROSSES NRN UT SAT MORNING AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTN PASSING
SLC AROUND 4PM LOCAL TIME.

THE PRECIP THREAT WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NRN MTNS AND WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS FAVORED BY SOUTH FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND PRECIP WITH IT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS INITIALLY AS PRECIP WITH THE FRONT ONLY
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW RIGHT BEFORE IT ENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING VALLEY SNOW WITH THE FRONT AS IT
HEADS SOUTH ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT REACHING ALMOST TO CEDAR CITY.

UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE ERN PAC SHOULD DUMP
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS TROF SQUARELY OVER NRN UT LATER SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SETS UP A PERIOD OF DEEPLY UNSTABLE MOIST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MIDDAY SUN AND SNOW SHOULD REDEVELOP IN
THE NRN VALLEYS WITH SOME ACCUMULATION BY MID MORNING.

LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE GSL BY
NOON SUNDAY.

THE NRN MTNS SHOULD DO QUITE WELL IN THIS PATTERN WITH SWLY FLOW
FAVORED AREAS PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND NWLY FLOW FAVORED AREAS BEHIND IT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO
A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE MTN
VALLEYS...THE WASATCH PLATEAU AND WY. THE CENTRAL MTNS COULD GET
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY BUT THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN UNTIL SAT
NIGHT SO HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.

BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE
THEN A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF SETS OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
FOR THE NORTH LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT MTN ACCUMULATION AND THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE NRN VALLEYS.

WINDS IN THE MTNS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THEN DROP OFF SOMEWHAT BUT PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NNW
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE STRONG FOR A TIME BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW DESERTS.

EVERYTHING WINDS DOWN MON AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WARMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...DEEP WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
AN INFLUX OF 7H MOISTURE MAY ENABLE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND UINTAS TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING RIDGE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL NUDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...OFFERING
THE FINAL DEATH KNELL OF THE STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE
REBOUND AS THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES THROUGH UTAH MIDWEEK. AT THIS POINT
MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...THOUGH BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 03Z. CIGS LOWER AND WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECTING CIGS TO REACH 6000 FT AGL BETWEEN 13-15Z AS RAIN SHOWERS
CREEP CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. WINDS MAY REACH AIRPORT WIND WARNING
CRITERIA BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211643
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO DIVE SWD THIS MORNING PULLING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING SO FAR AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW SMALL WEAK RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THESE HAVE BEEN FADING IN
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS WAS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND ANYWAY AND THE THREAT GOING FORWARD FOR ANY PRECIP APPEARS
VERY LOW.

NEW 12Z MODELS STILL BRING THE VIGOROUS BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROF INTO THE PACNW LATE FRI NIGHT AND ADVANCE IT RAPIDLY
EWD DURING THE DAY SAT. A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT CROSSES NRN UT
SAT MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTN.

THE PRECIP THREAT WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NRN MTNS AND WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS FAVORED BY SOUTH FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND PRECIP WITH IT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS INITIALLY AS PRECIP WITH THE FRONT ONLY
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW RIGHT BEFORE IT ENDS.

HOWEVER UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE ERN PAC SHOULD
DUMP THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS TROF SQUARELY OVER NRN UT LATER
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SETS UP A PERIOD OF DEEPLY UNSTABLE MOIST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MIDDAY SUN AND THE NRN MTNS SHOULD DO
QUITE WELL IN THIS PATTERN. SNOW COULD ALSO REDEVELOP IN THE NRN
VALLEYS AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE A
FACTOR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION BY NOON
SUNDAY.

BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE
THEN A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF SETS OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
FOR THE NORTH LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

CENTRAL AND SWRN UT LOOK TO GET PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH
AS CEDAR CITY BY SUN MORNING. THE ERN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN SHADOWED
IN THIS EVENT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERY PRECIP.

WINDS IN THE MTNS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THEN DROP OFF SOMEWHAT BUT PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NNW
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THIS ALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
NRN MTNS SAT THRU MON AND THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH IS ON
TRACK AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA AND
LOWERED MORNING POPS DOWN SOUTH. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.



&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...WILENSKY
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211643
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUES TO DIVE SWD THIS MORNING PULLING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING SO FAR AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW SMALL WEAK RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THESE HAVE BEEN FADING IN
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS WAS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND ANYWAY AND THE THREAT GOING FORWARD FOR ANY PRECIP APPEARS
VERY LOW.

NEW 12Z MODELS STILL BRING THE VIGOROUS BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROF INTO THE PACNW LATE FRI NIGHT AND ADVANCE IT RAPIDLY
EWD DURING THE DAY SAT. A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT CROSSES NRN UT
SAT MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTN.

THE PRECIP THREAT WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
NRN MTNS AND WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS FAVORED BY SOUTH FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY AND PRECIP WITH IT MAY BE SHORT
LIVED. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT VALLEYS INITIALLY AS PRECIP WITH THE FRONT ONLY
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW RIGHT BEFORE IT ENDS.

HOWEVER UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE ERN PAC SHOULD
DUMP THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS TROF SQUARELY OVER NRN UT LATER
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SETS UP A PERIOD OF DEEPLY UNSTABLE MOIST
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MIDDAY SUN AND THE NRN MTNS SHOULD DO
QUITE WELL IN THIS PATTERN. SNOW COULD ALSO REDEVELOP IN THE NRN
VALLEYS AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE A
FACTOR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION BY NOON
SUNDAY.

BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE
THEN A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF SETS OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
FOR THE NORTH LATER SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

CENTRAL AND SWRN UT LOOK TO GET PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH
AS CEDAR CITY BY SUN MORNING. THE ERN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN SHADOWED
IN THIS EVENT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWERY PRECIP.

WINDS IN THE MTNS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THEN DROP OFF SOMEWHAT BUT PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NNW
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THIS ALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
NRN MTNS SAT THRU MON AND THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH IS ON
TRACK AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA AND
LOWERED MORNING POPS DOWN SOUTH. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.



&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...WILENSKY
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211121
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT FOR THIS MORNING...ONLY LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CROSSING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ACROSS NORTHERN UT...ALTHOUGH A STABLE LAYER NEAR 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO REAL SURPRISES IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE. AS SUCH OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH...AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHERN
UT LATE IN THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE DURING THE EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST AND DEEPLY
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...WHICH
WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR AREAS FAVORED IN
SUCH REGIMES. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ENHANCES
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SNOW FORECASTS AND THE GOING WINTER STORM WATCH STILL LOOK IN GOOD
SHAPE ACROSS THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS. VALLEY SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN...AND THIS IS THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH SNOW LIKELY NOT BEGINNING ACROSS THE VALLEYS
UNTIL MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH MUCH OF THE QPF EARLY
IN THE EVENT WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. PERIODS OF LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE BENCHES AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF THE GSL. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE VALLEY FLOORS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ALONG THE BENCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO UTAH
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE EC AND GFS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HOLDS UNTO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION FORECAST BY THE
GFS SO LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CHANCE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY STILL BE OVER DONE IF THE EC IS CORRECT
WHICH SHOWS NO PRECIP BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
700MB TEMPS MODERATE QUITE RAPIDLY FROM -12C AT SLC 00Z TUESDAY TO
-4C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL BUT
NOT TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO A LIKELY CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A RIDGE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SINCE THE EC WENT TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND NOW BOTH HAVE A RIDGE
IN PLACE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD HAVE REMOVED POPS OR REDUCED THEM
SIGNIFICANTLY. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIOD
IS LOW DUE TO THE EC HAVING SUCH A LARGE SWING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AND BELOW CLIMO FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT A SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211121
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT FOR THIS MORNING...ONLY LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CROSSING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ACROSS NORTHERN UT...ALTHOUGH A STABLE LAYER NEAR 800MB
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO REAL SURPRISES IN THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE. AS SUCH OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH...AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHERN
UT LATE IN THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE DURING THE EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST AND DEEPLY
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...WHICH
WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR AREAS FAVORED IN
SUCH REGIMES. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ENHANCES
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SNOW FORECASTS AND THE GOING WINTER STORM WATCH STILL LOOK IN GOOD
SHAPE ACROSS THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS. VALLEY SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN...AND THIS IS THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH SNOW LIKELY NOT BEGINNING ACROSS THE VALLEYS
UNTIL MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS SUCH MUCH OF THE QPF EARLY
IN THE EVENT WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. PERIODS OF LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE BENCHES AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OF THE GSL. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE VALLEY FLOORS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ALONG THE BENCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO UTAH
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE EC AND GFS ALTHOUGH THE GFS HOLDS UNTO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN UTAH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS DECENT WARM ADVECTION FORECAST BY THE
GFS SO LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CHANCE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY STILL BE OVER DONE IF THE EC IS CORRECT
WHICH SHOWS NO PRECIP BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
700MB TEMPS MODERATE QUITE RAPIDLY FROM -12C AT SLC 00Z TUESDAY TO
-4C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL BUT
NOT TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO A LIKELY CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE A RIDGE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SINCE THE EC WENT TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND NOW BOTH HAVE A RIDGE
IN PLACE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD HAVE REMOVED POPS OR REDUCED THEM
SIGNIFICANTLY. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIOD
IS LOW DUE TO THE EC HAVING SUCH A LARGE SWING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AND BELOW CLIMO FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT A SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 210441
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM OVER CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...JUST CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
UTAH. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO UTAH THIS
EVENING...BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA
TODAY AND THE NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. THE LATTER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TAKING A SHARP
DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LATEST MODELS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO QPF. AS A RESULT...EXPECT JUST SOME INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO MUCH TONIGHT.

STORMY WEEKEND STILL AHEAD AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL START SATURDAY MORNING IN WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND EXTENDED DURATION OF THE
STORM...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTH. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY
SNOW...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

UPDATED TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY CIGS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE 7000 FT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 210441
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM OVER CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...JUST CLIPPING SOUTHWEST
UTAH. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO UTAH THIS
EVENING...BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA
TODAY AND THE NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. THE LATTER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TAKING A SHARP
DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LATEST MODELS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO QPF. AS A RESULT...EXPECT JUST SOME INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO MUCH TONIGHT.

STORMY WEEKEND STILL AHEAD AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL START SATURDAY MORNING IN WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND EXTENDED DURATION OF THE
STORM...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTH. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY
SNOW...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.

UPDATED TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS
TO OVERNIGHT MINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY CIGS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE 7000 FT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 202215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
315 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...JUST CLIPPING
SOUTHWEST UTAH. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST ITEM IS THE STORM OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. ALL
MODELS TAKE THIS STORM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT JUST CLIPS SOUTHWEST UTAH. 12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7K.
12Z EC IS COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE TONIGHT EARLY FRIDAY.

MAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A
VERY LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC OCEAN TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME ARE A COUPLE OF
STORMS.

THERE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTS DESCRIBED BELOW
IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. YOU DON`T HEAR US SAY THAT TOO OFTEN.

THE FIRST STORM ARRIVES IN NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT. ALL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FROM DAVIS COUNTY
NORTHWARD ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONTAL
PORTION OF THE STORM AS LOCAL DOWNSLOPING MY LIMIT PRECIP IN SALT
LAKE VALLEY AND UTAH COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INITIATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM MODELS SHOW
DEEP INSTABILITY AND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW...MOUNTAIN AREAS
FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL.

VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR SLC THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6-8PM SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. EAST BENCH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO SNOW
TOTALS COULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER IN THESE BENCH AREAS.

THE DREADED LAKE EFFECT IS A WILDCARD AND COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SOME PARTS OF DAVIS AND/OR SALT LAKE
COUNTY. HOWEVER THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD AND ALCOTT`S
STUDY OF THE DLE SUGGESTS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES. IT IS SLIGHTLY COLDER
IN THE 12Z EC THAN IN THE 12Z GFS. STILL TWO DAYS OUT...STAY
TUNED.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC SNOW LIKELY.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL...HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY/TUESDAY ARE TREATED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY BY THE 12Z GFS/EC
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT TIMING/DISTRIBUTION ARE DIFFERENT.

BY MIDWEEK 12Z MODELS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE EC AND A WARM DRY RIDGE IN THE GFS.
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z EC SOLUTION SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY CIGS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE 7000 FT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WEST OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY
NEAR 7000 FT WILL BRIEFLY THICKEN ENOUGH TO FORM A CIG AS THEY CROSS
THE AIRFIELD THRU ABOUT 01Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH ABOUT 01Z THEN SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 202215
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
315 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...JUST CLIPPING
SOUTHWEST UTAH. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST ITEM IS THE STORM OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY. ALL
MODELS TAKE THIS STORM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT JUST CLIPS SOUTHWEST UTAH. 12Z GFS/NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7K.
12Z EC IS COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE TONIGHT EARLY FRIDAY.

MAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A
VERY LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC OCEAN TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME ARE A COUPLE OF
STORMS.

THERE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTS DESCRIBED BELOW
IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. YOU DON`T HEAR US SAY THAT TOO OFTEN.

THE FIRST STORM ARRIVES IN NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT. ALL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FROM DAVIS COUNTY
NORTHWARD ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONTAL
PORTION OF THE STORM AS LOCAL DOWNSLOPING MY LIMIT PRECIP IN SALT
LAKE VALLEY AND UTAH COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INITIATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM MODELS SHOW
DEEP INSTABILITY AND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW...MOUNTAIN AREAS
FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GET SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL.

VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOR SLC THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 6-8PM SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. EAST BENCH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO SNOW
TOTALS COULD BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER IN THESE BENCH AREAS.

THE DREADED LAKE EFFECT IS A WILDCARD AND COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SOME PARTS OF DAVIS AND/OR SALT LAKE
COUNTY. HOWEVER THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD AND ALCOTT`S
STUDY OF THE DLE SUGGESTS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES. IT IS SLIGHTLY COLDER
IN THE 12Z EC THAN IN THE 12Z GFS. STILL TWO DAYS OUT...STAY
TUNED.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC SNOW LIKELY.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL...HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY/TUESDAY ARE TREATED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY BY THE 12Z GFS/EC
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH THE WARM
FRONT BUT TIMING/DISTRIBUTION ARE DIFFERENT.

BY MIDWEEK 12Z MODELS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE EC AND A WARM DRY RIDGE IN THE GFS.
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z EC SOLUTION SO KEPT CHANCE POPS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY CIGS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE 7000 FT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCATTERED CLOUDS WEST OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY
NEAR 7000 FT WILL BRIEFLY THICKEN ENOUGH TO FORM A CIG AS THEY CROSS
THE AIRFIELD THRU ABOUT 01Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH ABOUT 01Z THEN SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 201652
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTHWEST UTAH EARLY
FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH TODAY. RADAR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VIRGA...BUT LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VALLEYS MAINLY OGDEN NORTHWARD.

NEXT TROUGH NOW ENTERING CA IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALL MODELS SHOW
IT CLOSING OFF AND GOING SOUTH THROUGH LAS VEGAS AND INTO AZ LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE 00Z EC
INDICATES NO PRECIP IN UTAH WITH THIS TROUGH. CURRENT POPS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY SEEM APPROPRIATE.

OVERNIGHT MODELS AND QUICK LOOK AT 12Z GFS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
FOR WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. NEW 12Z GFS IS JUST A TAD LESS COLD AT
500 MB WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHS...BUT
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FOR SLC SHOW DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH 450 MB.
LATEST 12Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES OVER AREA AT TAIL END OF STORM WHILE
PREVIOUS GFS HAD THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
EXCELLENT SET UP FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS THAT ARE FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW DOING
PARTICULARLY WELL IN THIS PATTERN. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

VALLEY SNOW FORECAST IS TOUGHER. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...EAST BENCH
AREAS MAY DO QUITE A BIT BETTER THAN VALLEY FLOORS OR WEST SIDE OF
SALT LAKE AND UTAH COUNTY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT VALLEY SNOW AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT IS WILDCARD.
LOOKING AT ALCOTT`S STUDY SUGGESTS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DREADED LAKE EFFECT AS 700 MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT
COLD. USED A LAKE TEMP OF PLUS 6 IN THE CALCULATION.

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7K FT AGL
THROUGH 00Z BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF CIGS LOWERING BELOW 7K FT
AGL BETWEEN 19 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z THEN SHOULD SET UP WEAKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201652
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTHWEST UTAH EARLY
FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH TODAY. RADAR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE VIRGA...BUT LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECT A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VALLEYS MAINLY OGDEN NORTHWARD.

NEXT TROUGH NOW ENTERING CA IS A BIT STRONGER BUT ALL MODELS SHOW
IT CLOSING OFF AND GOING SOUTH THROUGH LAS VEGAS AND INTO AZ LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE 00Z EC
INDICATES NO PRECIP IN UTAH WITH THIS TROUGH. CURRENT POPS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY SEEM APPROPRIATE.

OVERNIGHT MODELS AND QUICK LOOK AT 12Z GFS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
FOR WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. NEW 12Z GFS IS JUST A TAD LESS COLD AT
500 MB WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TROUGHS...BUT
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS FOR SLC SHOW DEEP INSTABILITY THROUGH 450 MB.
LATEST 12Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIP MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES OVER AREA AT TAIL END OF STORM WHILE
PREVIOUS GFS HAD THIS MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
EXCELLENT SET UP FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AREAS THAT ARE FAVORED BY NORTHWEST FLOW DOING
PARTICULARLY WELL IN THIS PATTERN. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

VALLEY SNOW FORECAST IS TOUGHER. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SHORTLY AFTER FROPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...EAST BENCH
AREAS MAY DO QUITE A BIT BETTER THAN VALLEY FLOORS OR WEST SIDE OF
SALT LAKE AND UTAH COUNTY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT VALLEY SNOW AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT IS WILDCARD.
LOOKING AT ALCOTT`S STUDY SUGGESTS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DREADED LAKE EFFECT AS 700 MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT
COLD. USED A LAKE TEMP OF PLUS 6 IN THE CALCULATION.

ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7K FT AGL
THROUGH 00Z BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF CIGS LOWERING BELOW 7K FT
AGL BETWEEN 19 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z THEN SHOULD SET UP WEAKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUNN
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 201124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...SERVING AS PRELIMINARY ROUNDS TO THE MAIN EVENT WHICH
WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE INITIAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT BRUSHES BY NORTHERN
UT DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG THE ID BORDER...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
CLOUD STORM THAN ANYTHING ELSE. BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH SETS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR
130W...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE
OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL.

A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN UT THIS WEEKEND...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN STRONG
AGREEMENT FORECASTING THIS OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. AS SUCH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80 WHICH IS OFTEN FAVORED IN THESE
REGIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE SATURDAY EVENING. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN UT...AND ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MOIST AND DEEPLY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC SETUP FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA RANGES THROUGHOUT THIS
TIMEFRAME...AND LIKELY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE
OF EMBEDDED WAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND DURATION...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

THIS SETUP WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND
TO A LESSER EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST UT. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SETUP MAY
ALSO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DOWNWIND OF THE GSL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT VALLEY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE NORTHER PORTION
OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION OR NEUTRAL
ADVECTION AT 700 MB. THE THERMAL ADVECTION WILL TRANSITION TO WARM
ADVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH. SO ALTHOUGH THE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK SOMEWHAT HIGH...MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
MONDAY AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WEATHER FREE.

THE WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY IS THE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING WHEN THE
WINDS ARE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISOTHERMS...BUT EVEN THEN THEN
ISOTHERMS ARE NOT CLOSELY PACKED SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL SNOW ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT TUESDAY AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SOUNDING SHOWS THE WET BULB
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS BROUGHT THE WET
BULB ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...MAY GO OVER TO A MIST BEFORE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE THE PRECIP TYPE STILL A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY. SOUTH OF ABOUT A JUAB TO CARBON COUNTY LINE
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE DRASTICALLY WITH THE GFS
BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE EC BRINGS A SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY MIDDAY OVER THE NORTH
AND INTO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A FEW MEMBERS
THAT SUPPORTS THIS SHORTWAVE IDEA SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE H7 TEMPS WARM TO -2C IN THE
MORNING AND START TO COOL TO -4C BY MIDDAY. IF THE AIR MASS DOES MIX
OUT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. DID NOT GO SO BOLD WITH
THE FORECAST BUT DID INCH UP THE TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN
LIGHT OF THE POSSIBLE MIXING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTRODUCED THEM FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS
BY THURSDAY MIDDAY IS AS MUCH AS 18C. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
EC BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO WHOLE HEARTEDLY WITH ITS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 19Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL THROUGH 00Z WITH A 40 PERCENT
OF CIGS LOWERING BELOW 7K FT AGL BETWEEN 01 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 201124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...SERVING AS PRELIMINARY ROUNDS TO THE MAIN EVENT WHICH
WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

THE INITIAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT BRUSHES BY NORTHERN
UT DURING THE DAY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG THE ID BORDER...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
CLOUD STORM THAN ANYTHING ELSE. BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH SETS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR
130W...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE
OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...A MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MINIMAL.

A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN UT THIS WEEKEND...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN STRONG
AGREEMENT FORECASTING THIS OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. AS SUCH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80 WHICH IS OFTEN FAVORED IN THESE
REGIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE SATURDAY EVENING. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN UT...AND ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MOIST AND DEEPLY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC SETUP FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA RANGES THROUGHOUT THIS
TIMEFRAME...AND LIKELY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE
OF EMBEDDED WAVES FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND DURATION...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

THIS SETUP WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND
TO A LESSER EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST UT. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SETUP MAY
ALSO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DOWNWIND OF THE GSL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT VALLEY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AS BOTH THE EC AND GFS
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE NORTHER PORTION
OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION OR NEUTRAL
ADVECTION AT 700 MB. THE THERMAL ADVECTION WILL TRANSITION TO WARM
ADVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTH. SO ALTHOUGH THE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK SOMEWHAT HIGH...MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
MONDAY AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME
WEATHER FREE.

THE WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY IS THE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING WHEN THE
WINDS ARE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISOTHERMS...BUT EVEN THEN THEN
ISOTHERMS ARE NOT CLOSELY PACKED SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL SNOW ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT TUESDAY AS THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SOUNDING SHOWS THE WET BULB
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS BROUGHT THE WET
BULB ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...MAY GO OVER TO A MIST BEFORE
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE THE PRECIP TYPE STILL A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY. SOUTH OF ABOUT A JUAB TO CARBON COUNTY LINE
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE DRASTICALLY WITH THE GFS
BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE EC BRINGS A SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY MIDDAY OVER THE NORTH
AND INTO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A FEW MEMBERS
THAT SUPPORTS THIS SHORTWAVE IDEA SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE H7 TEMPS WARM TO -2C IN THE
MORNING AND START TO COOL TO -4C BY MIDDAY. IF THE AIR MASS DOES MIX
OUT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THEN TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. DID NOT GO SO BOLD WITH
THE FORECAST BUT DID INCH UP THE TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN
LIGHT OF THE POSSIBLE MIXING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTRODUCED THEM FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS
BY THURSDAY MIDDAY IS AS MUCH AS 18C. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
EC BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO WHOLE HEARTEDLY WITH ITS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 19Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL THROUGH 00Z WITH A 40 PERCENT
OF CIGS LOWERING BELOW 7K FT AGL BETWEEN 01 AND 06Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 200419
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
919 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY)...THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS UTAH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG
WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT FOR PRECIP.

A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF 140W WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION CENTER
AS IT TURNS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY STAY TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS IT CONTINUES TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARIZONA.
SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP WHILE THE
CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND STORM WILL COVER UTAH
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...A STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
MULTI-DAY STORM PATTERN AND WHAT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND AHEAD FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE JET AND WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENING SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
FILL IN RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS AND KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING BEHIND IT AND
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FARTHER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SPINE OF UTAH AND ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.

ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
LOOKS TO BRING A RENEWED BURST OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...WILL SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...FAVORED NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES WILL
CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THIS PATTERN AND STORM TOTALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS A RESULT.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE COULD ALSO
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE EC. EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN HOW STRONGLY THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH NET
RESULT BEING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT THE EC MAINTAINS
THE JET CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT MORE
MOIST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z TO 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM...CHENG
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 200419
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
919 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY)...THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS UTAH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG
WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT FOR PRECIP.

A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF 140W WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION CENTER
AS IT TURNS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY FRIDAY.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY STAY TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS IT CONTINUES TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARIZONA.
SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP WHILE THE
CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND STORM WILL COVER UTAH
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...A STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
MULTI-DAY STORM PATTERN AND WHAT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND AHEAD FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE JET AND WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENING SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
FILL IN RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS AND KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING BEHIND IT AND
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FARTHER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SPINE OF UTAH AND ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.

ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
LOOKS TO BRING A RENEWED BURST OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...WILL SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...FAVORED NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES WILL
CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THIS PATTERN AND STORM TOTALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS A RESULT.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE COULD ALSO
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE EC. EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN HOW STRONGLY THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH NET
RESULT BEING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT THE EC MAINTAINS
THE JET CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT MORE
MOIST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z TO 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM...CHENG
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 192224
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
324 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BETTER MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RUN A BIT ABOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES...NEAR
OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

THE WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED AND LACKING
IN MOISTURE...SO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. THOUGH THE WAVE WILL BRING A BIT OF
COOLING ALOFT...BETTER MIXING SHOULD KEEP MAXES SIMILAR TO VALUES
OBSERVED TODAY.

THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE VERY BRIEF RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THAT
TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD...MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO MEXICO AND TEXAS. THOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OCCURRING ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...A STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY MORNING WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
MULTI-DAY STORM PATTERN AND WHAT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND AHEAD FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE JET AND WARM
ADVECTION STRENGTHENING SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
FILL IN RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS AND KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING BEHIND IT AND
PRECIPITATION SPREADING FARTHER INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. THE MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SPINE OF UTAH AND ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.

ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
LOOKS TO BRING A RENEWED BURST OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...WILL SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...FAVORED NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES WILL
CONTINUE TO DO WELL IN THIS PATTERN AND STORM TOTALS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AS A RESULT.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE COULD ALSO
COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE EC. EVEN WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER BETWEEN HOW STRONGLY THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH NET
RESULT BEING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT THE EC MAINTAINS
THE JET CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT MORE
MOIST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 191653
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST...MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A LOW END THREAT OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN UTAH.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY SNOW.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 191653
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST...MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A LOW END THREAT OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN UTAH.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY SNOW.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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