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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221031
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD TROUGH WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY NORTHERN UTAH AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BEHIND IT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. MAIN SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF IT IS KEEPING SHOWERS GOING OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TO THE SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
IS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH...ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RUNS TONIGHT
INDICATE A FASTER MOVING TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWED. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING PRECIP TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO EXIT SATURDAY EVENING...ALLOWING
PRECIP TO GENERALLY TAPER OFF BY THAT POINT.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...SHOWING 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM +10 TO +12C TO +3C TO
+4C OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...SHOWING 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS +1C
OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH. REGARDLESS...MAX TEMPS...WHICH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN RUNNING A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF 20F BELOW CLIMO OVER NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. COOLING SHOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH.

BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIVERGE...SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL. 00Z ECMWF STILL SHOWING
BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. HOWEVER...GFS IS NOW SHOWING
WEAK TROUGHINESS FOR SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME INSTABILITY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SLOW THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND. ALL
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 00Z GFS SHOWED A WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG RIDGING AFTERWARD...BUT
THE 06Z RUN IS BACK TO SHOWING A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND ONE
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN ALL OVER
THE PLACE BUT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN UNSTABLE PATTERN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW CLIMO...BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DETAILS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...STRONG RIDGING LOOKS
TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH 22Z WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GUSTING OVER 25 KTS. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 22Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z DUE TO REDUCED
VISBYS IN RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WET STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE WETTING
RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...SPECIFICALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
DRYING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH A WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROF IS DIGGING INTO THE PACNW STATES
THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WITH UTAH UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT UNDER
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING PACNW TROF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL UT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
OPEN AN LIFT NEWD. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS OVER MORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROF WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST FALL TROF
AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK WITH
LIKELY GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
CWA FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING...AS COOL STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO RAISE POPS SERN UT OVERNIGHT AND
KEEP SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE
NORTH. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS WELL. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHERLY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 05-07Z. OUTFLOW FROM PASSING SHOWERS COULD ALSO CREATE
BRIEF ERRATIC GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 220329
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROF IS DIGGING INTO THE PACNW STATES
THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WITH UTAH UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT UNDER
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING PACNW TROF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL UT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
OPEN AN LIFT NEWD. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS OVER MORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROF WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST FALL TROF
AND THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK WITH
LIKELY GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
CWA FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING...AS COOL STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO RAISE POPS SERN UT OVERNIGHT AND
KEEP SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE
NORTH. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS WELL. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHERLY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 05-07Z. OUTFLOW FROM PASSING SHOWERS COULD ALSO CREATE
BRIEF ERRATIC GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 212208
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
ARIZONA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE NORTH...A WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
UTAH/IDAHO BORDER...ON THE SOUTH END OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE CWA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WET...APPEARING MUCH
MORE LIKE A FALL SYSTEM. 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP AS LOW AS
2 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH ON SATURDAY. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED FURTHER ON FUTURE
SHIFTS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING...AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. DETAILS ON THIS TROUGH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AS THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR HAD VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THE 12Z EC HAS A FAIRLY SHALLOW TROUGH THAT BRUSHES NORTHERN UTAH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH THAT IT DEVELOPED IN THE 00Z RUN...WHICH BROUGHT WET
WEATHER TO UTAH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE 12Z EC AND
GFS VERIFY...THE CURRENT POPS ARE TOO HIGH IN MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE
FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS LOCK INTO A SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THIS SAID...A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM NEIGHBORING SHOWERS WILL CREATE
BRIEF WIND SWITCHES AND ERRATIC GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW WILL BRING COOL
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE
WETTING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON NORTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 212208
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
ARIZONA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE NORTH...A WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
UTAH/IDAHO BORDER...ON THE SOUTH END OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE CWA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WET...APPEARING MUCH
MORE LIKE A FALL SYSTEM. 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP AS LOW AS
2 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH ON SATURDAY. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED FURTHER ON FUTURE
SHIFTS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING...AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. DETAILS ON THIS TROUGH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AS THE ECMWF
IN PARTICULAR HAD VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THE 12Z EC HAS A FAIRLY SHALLOW TROUGH THAT BRUSHES NORTHERN UTAH
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS IN SHARP CONTRAST TO A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH THAT IT DEVELOPED IN THE 00Z RUN...WHICH BROUGHT WET
WEATHER TO UTAH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE 12Z EC AND
GFS VERIFY...THE CURRENT POPS ARE TOO HIGH IN MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE
FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS LOCK INTO A SOLUTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. THIS SAID...A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE EXISTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM NEIGHBORING SHOWERS WILL CREATE
BRIEF WIND SWITCHES AND ERRATIC GUSTS THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW WILL BRING COOL
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE
WETTING RAIN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...THIS TIME WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ON NORTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND SHOWS UP WELL ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...AS IT HAS KICKED OFF A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP THE NORTH ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SOME OF THE BEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...THE AIRMASS IS SLOWLY DRYING FROM
THE WEST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.6
INCHES. THAT SAID...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
FROM ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.

AFTER SOME DRYING AND WARMING TOMORROW...THE FOCUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FALL-LIKE TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL
AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH
MODELS LOCKING IN ON THIS COOL AND WET PATTERN...WILL LOOK TO SEE
WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN BE LOWERED EVEN MORE...AND WHERE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE CAN ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND SHOWS UP WELL ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...AS IT HAS KICKED OFF A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP THE NORTH ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
SOME OF THE BEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF UTAH IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...THE AIRMASS IS SLOWLY DRYING FROM
THE WEST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.6
INCHES. THAT SAID...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
FROM ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.

AFTER SOME DRYING AND WARMING TOMORROW...THE FOCUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE FALL-LIKE TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL
AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH
MODELS LOCKING IN ON THIS COOL AND WET PATTERN...WILL LOOK TO SEE
WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN BE LOWERED EVEN MORE...AND WHERE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE CAN ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211118
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
518 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER SLOW DRYING CONTINUING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH RANGE COMPARED TO MORE LIKE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH LAST NIGHT.
STILL...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION GOING
OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH THE BEST SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.

AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY TERRAIN BASED. BY FRIDAY...THE
FIRST PIECE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BUT THE MUCH STRONGER SECOND PIECE APPROACHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ONCE AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE THE SOUTHERN LOW INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY BECOME A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION AS WELL.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE COLD TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY THE EC WHICH INDICATES 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS +3C MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY...COMPARED TO
700 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN UTAH DRY...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF COOLING.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS SHOW THE REGION BEING IMPACTING BY
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT HAVE DIVERGED ON THE DETAILS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT...MOVING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH. IN THE LATEST EC...THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS
IT DIVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AND ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE STRONGEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z WHEN GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO UNDER
7KT FT AGL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE SEASON REMAINS ON STANDBY AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REFUSES TO EXIT THE REGION. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A SIGNIFICANT LOOKING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND RH
VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL LOWER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211118
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
518 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER SLOW DRYING CONTINUING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH RANGE COMPARED TO MORE LIKE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH LAST NIGHT.
STILL...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION GOING
OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH THE BEST SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.

AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY TERRAIN BASED. BY FRIDAY...THE
FIRST PIECE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BUT THE MUCH STRONGER SECOND PIECE APPROACHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ONCE AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE THE SOUTHERN LOW INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY BECOME A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION AS WELL.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE COLD TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY THE EC WHICH INDICATES 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS +3C MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY...COMPARED TO
700 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN UTAH DRY...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF COOLING.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS SHOW THE REGION BEING IMPACTING BY
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT HAVE DIVERGED ON THE DETAILS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT...MOVING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH. IN THE LATEST EC...THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS
IT DIVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AND ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE STRONGEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z WHEN GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO UNDER
7KT FT AGL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE SEASON REMAINS ON STANDBY AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REFUSES TO EXIT THE REGION. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A SIGNIFICANT LOOKING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND RH
VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL LOWER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER SLOW DRYING CONTINUING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH RANGE COMPARED TO MORE LIKE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH LAST NIGHT.
STILL...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION GOING
OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH THE BEST SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.

AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY TERRAIN BASED. BY FRIDAY...THE
FIRST PIECE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BUT THE MUCH STRONGER SECOND PIECE APPROACHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ONCE AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE THE SOUTHERN LOW INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY BECOME A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION AS WELL.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE COLD TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY THE EC WHICH INDICATES 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS +3C MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY...COMPARED TO
700 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN UTAH DRY...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF COOLING.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS SHOW THE REGION BEING IMPACTING BY
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT HAVE DIVERGED ON THE DETAILS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT...MOVING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH. IN THE LATEST EC...THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS
IT DIVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AND ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE STRONGEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z WHEN GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO UNDER
7KT FT AGL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE SEASON REMAINS ON STANDBY AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REFUSES TO EXIT THE REGION. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A SIGNIFICANT LOOKING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND RH
VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL LOWER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 211016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER SLOW DRYING CONTINUING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH RANGE COMPARED TO MORE LIKE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH LAST NIGHT.
STILL...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS KEPT CONVECTION GOING
OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH...THOUGH THE BEST SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO.

AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY TERRAIN BASED. BY FRIDAY...THE
FIRST PIECE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BUT THE MUCH STRONGER SECOND PIECE APPROACHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
ONCE AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE THE SOUTHERN LOW INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY BECOME A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION AS WELL.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE COLD TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN UTAH AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH THE
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY THE EC WHICH INDICATES 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS +3C MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY...COMPARED TO
700 MB TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTHERN UTAH DRY...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF COOLING.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS SHOW THE REGION BEING IMPACTING BY
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT HAVE DIVERGED ON THE DETAILS.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT...MOVING IN A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH. IN THE LATEST EC...THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS
IT DIVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME AS IT HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. ALL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AND ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE STRONGEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z WHEN GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT BUT COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO UNDER
7KT FT AGL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE SEASON REMAINS ON STANDBY AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REFUSES TO EXIT THE REGION. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A SIGNIFICANT LOOKING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE INTERACTING
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND RH
VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL LOWER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 210402
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A WET START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SLIGHT DRYING HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH LATEST GOES ESTIMATED PWAT AROUND 0.6 TO
0.75 INCHES. SOME STORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE HAVE TAPERED
OFF WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
RIPPLING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LIFT WHICH
PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY HAVING DECREASED SOMEWHAT...THE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE EARLIER...BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT.

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE A BIT LESS TOMORROW AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND UTAH REMAINS LARGELY BETWEEN THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS. A
RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED STORMINESS BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  MADE MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO POP/SKY BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION....NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 06Z THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
06 AND 07Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 08Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 210402
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A WET START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SLIGHT DRYING HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH LATEST GOES ESTIMATED PWAT AROUND 0.6 TO
0.75 INCHES. SOME STORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THESE HAVE TAPERED
OFF WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
RIPPLING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LIFT WHICH
PRODUCED SOME STRONG STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH
INSTABILITY HAVING DECREASED SOMEWHAT...THE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE EARLIER...BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT.

ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE A BIT LESS TOMORROW AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY AND UTAH REMAINS LARGELY BETWEEN THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS. A
RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED STORMINESS BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  MADE MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO POP/SKY BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION....NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 06Z THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
06 AND 07Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 08Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 202231
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
431 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A WET START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST.
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOES
SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HOVERING BETWEEN .75" AND
1" OVER MOST OF THE STATE. SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
THIS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAXED OUT IN EAST CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW DECREASING. MEANWHILE SHEAR HAS INCREASED
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH TO 25-30 KTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. GIVEN INSTABILITY THAT IS PRESENT AND INCREASING
SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IN THE NORTH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NAM INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN NE NV AND SRN ID THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO
KEEP NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING AND HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACROSS MULTIPLE MODELS RUNS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN UTAH
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES
EAST THROUGH ARIZONA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DRYING TREND OVER UTAH.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERZEALOUS WITH THE
DRYING TREND OVER UTAH. BELIEVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY TO ONCE AGAIN SEE SCATTERED MTN CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED STORMS OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. COVERAGE OF VALLEY STORMS
MAY BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDES CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NE NV
INTO SRN ID.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW.
ON FRIDAY...STRONG JET CORE ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH INDICATING
THAT TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING A BIT. 90 KT CORE THEN ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG AND
COMPACT CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THE FLOW AT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HIGHLY SUB-GEOSTROPHIC. THIS LEADS TO A
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NRN UT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
BENEATH THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MODELS DEPICT
CONVERGENCE ALG 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES INTO NRN UT FRI
NIGHT. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS NRN UT DURING THIS PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO 4-6C ACROSS NRN UT AND 7-10C ACROSS
SRN UT FOR SAT AND AND SUN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE AND MAX TEMPS ON SAT AND SUN WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT IN CENTRAL UT SAT NIGHT AND SUN BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
A BIT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DROP
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TROUGH AND DRIVE
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TROUGH UT MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ACTIVE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO STILL BE IN PLACE...AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION....ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
2300-0100 UTC. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TYPICAL SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
BRIEFLY DRYING ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL RETAIN ELEVATED RH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL RAMP
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST DESERTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST
RH REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND BULK OF FUELS REMAIN NON CRITICAL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SPREADING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT AT THAT TIME. BRIEF DRYING
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 202231
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
431 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. A
COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND A WET START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST.
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOES
SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HOVERING BETWEEN .75" AND
1" OVER MOST OF THE STATE. SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
THIS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAXED OUT IN EAST CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW DECREASING. MEANWHILE SHEAR HAS INCREASED
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST UTAH TO 25-30 KTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. GIVEN INSTABILITY THAT IS PRESENT AND INCREASING
SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IN THE NORTH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NAM INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN NE NV AND SRN ID THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO
KEEP NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING AND HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACROSS MULTIPLE MODELS RUNS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN UTAH
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES
EAST THROUGH ARIZONA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DRYING TREND OVER UTAH.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERZEALOUS WITH THE
DRYING TREND OVER UTAH. BELIEVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY TO ONCE AGAIN SEE SCATTERED MTN CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED STORMS OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. COVERAGE OF VALLEY STORMS
MAY BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER AS MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDES CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NE NV
INTO SRN ID.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW.
ON FRIDAY...STRONG JET CORE ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH INDICATING
THAT TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING A BIT. 90 KT CORE THEN ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG AND
COMPACT CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THE FLOW AT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HIGHLY SUB-GEOSTROPHIC. THIS LEADS TO A
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NRN UT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
BENEATH THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MODELS DEPICT
CONVERGENCE ALG 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES INTO NRN UT FRI
NIGHT. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS NRN UT DURING THIS PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO 4-6C ACROSS NRN UT AND 7-10C ACROSS
SRN UT FOR SAT AND AND SUN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE AND MAX TEMPS ON SAT AND SUN WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT IN CENTRAL UT SAT NIGHT AND SUN BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
A BIT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DROP
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TROUGH AND DRIVE
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TROUGH UT MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ACTIVE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO STILL BE IN PLACE...AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION....ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
2300-0100 UTC. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TYPICAL SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
BRIEFLY DRYING ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL RETAIN ELEVATED RH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL RAMP
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST DESERTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST
RH REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND BULK OF FUELS REMAIN NON CRITICAL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SPREADING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT AT THAT TIME. BRIEF DRYING
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 201621
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
TODAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WASATCH
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH. WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ANTICIPATE
A BIT OF A BREAK FOR NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH MAYBE 1800 UTC.
HOWEVER...A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF UTAH. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL ENTRENCHED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S STATEWIDE.

AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY IS GREATESTACROSS
EAST CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.
THIS AREA ALSO HAS DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS...SO
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA COULD SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION AND
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THAT
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AND...WITH THE GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING
VALUES OF .75" TO 1" REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN EASTERN VALLEYS
AS WELL AS THE UINTAS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE HRRR MODEL CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
MOVES AN AREA OF OF PRECIP INTO NW UT AFTER 0000 UTC.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z. TYPICAL SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BETWEEN 03-05Z.
 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL
REMAIN  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH UTAH
SATURDAY. MINOR DISTURBANCES BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY WILL KICK OFF
CONVECTION BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WIDELY SCATTERED WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THATS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY LIKELY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. DRYING
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MAY INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201621
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
TODAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WASATCH
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST UTAH. WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ANTICIPATE
A BIT OF A BREAK FOR NORTHWEST UTAH THROUGH MAYBE 1800 UTC.
HOWEVER...A REASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF UTAH. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL ENTRENCHED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S STATEWIDE.

AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY IS GREATESTACROSS
EAST CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.
THIS AREA ALSO HAS DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS...SO
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA COULD SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION AND
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THAT
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AND...WITH THE GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING
VALUES OF .75" TO 1" REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
UTAH...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN EASTERN VALLEYS
AS WELL AS THE UINTAS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST UTAH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE HRRR MODEL CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
MOVES AN AREA OF OF PRECIP INTO NW UT AFTER 0000 UTC.

&&

.AVIATION...ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z. TYPICAL SOUTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD RESUME BETWEEN 03-05Z.
 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL
REMAIN  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH UTAH
SATURDAY. MINOR DISTURBANCES BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY WILL KICK OFF
CONVECTION BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WIDELY SCATTERED WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THATS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY LIKELY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. DRYING
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MAY INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 201038
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
TODAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. UTAH IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN TWO PIECES OF A SPLIT
STORM SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN END IS A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHERN END IS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON THE
SOUTH END OF THAT TROUGH HAS ALLOWED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
EXITING THE WASATCH FRONT AND MOVING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
ITS EAST AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRESENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN
UTAH...RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE LOW. DESPITE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DRYING
TREND WITH PWS DECREASING TO AS LOW AS 0.6 BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH FLOW EXISTS TO ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS.

PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE SLOWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
LOW MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA AND THE STRONGER SECOND
PIECE OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. LATEST GFS TAKES THE
SOUTHERN LOW INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THAT SYSTEM OVER
ARIZONA. REGARDLESS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
TO ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF CONVECTION.

EC/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING. 700 MB
TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE FRIDAY ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS +4C TO +5C OVER NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY WITH LESS COOLING
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY...FOCUSED ON NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. RAISED
POPS SOME FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN POOR TO THIS POINT.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF DRYING AND WARMING
TREND BEFORE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL INTERMITTENTLY BE ERRATIC DUE
TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 22Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL BY 13Z BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY WILL IMPROVE EARLIER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL
REMAIN  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH UTAH
SATURDAY. MINOR DISTURBANCES BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY WILL KICK OFF
CONVECTION BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WIDELY SCATTERED WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THATS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY LIKELY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. DRYING
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MAY INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 201038
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY DRY
TODAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLD TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWS AROUND 1.0 INCH OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. UTAH IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN TWO PIECES OF A SPLIT
STORM SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN END IS A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE NORTHERN END IS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON THE
SOUTH END OF THAT TROUGH HAS ALLOWED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
EXITING THE WASATCH FRONT AND MOVING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
ITS EAST AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRESENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN
UTAH...RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE LOW. DESPITE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DRYING
TREND WITH PWS DECREASING TO AS LOW AS 0.6 BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH FLOW EXISTS TO ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS.

PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE SLOWLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
LOW MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA AND THE STRONGER SECOND
PIECE OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. LATEST GFS TAKES THE
SOUTHERN LOW INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THAT SYSTEM OVER
ARIZONA. REGARDLESS...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
TO ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF CONVECTION.

EC/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING. 700 MB
TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE FRIDAY ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO AS
LOW AS +4C TO +5C OVER NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY WITH LESS COOLING
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY...FOCUSED ON NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. RAISED
POPS SOME FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN POOR TO THIS POINT.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF DRYING AND WARMING
TREND BEFORE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL INTERMITTENTLY BE ERRATIC DUE
TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 22Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL BY 13Z BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY WILL IMPROVE EARLIER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL
REMAIN  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH UTAH
SATURDAY. MINOR DISTURBANCES BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY WILL KICK OFF
CONVECTION BOTH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WIDELY SCATTERED WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE THATS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY LIKELY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. DRYING
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MAY INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION/FIRE WX...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL
LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 200415
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH  WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLDER TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN ITS WAKE. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS TOOK THE FORM OF A MORE LINEAR FEATURE OVER
NEVADA EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OVER UTAH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPE NEAR
1000J/KG IN THIS AREA...WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TERMS OF WHERE SHOWERS HAVE OR HAVE NOT
DEVELOPED. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/SKY TO REFINE LOCATION OF GREATEST PRECIP THREAT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AS
ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. APPROACHING SHOWERS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME ERRATIC AT TIMES...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS FALLING TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL AFTER
08Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200415
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH  WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLDER TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN ITS WAKE. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS TOOK THE FORM OF A MORE LINEAR FEATURE OVER
NEVADA EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OVER UTAH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPE NEAR
1000J/KG IN THIS AREA...WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TERMS OF WHERE SHOWERS HAVE OR HAVE NOT
DEVELOPED. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/SKY TO REFINE LOCATION OF GREATEST PRECIP THREAT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AS
ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. APPROACHING SHOWERS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME ERRATIC AT TIMES...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS FALLING TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL AFTER
08Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 192232
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
432 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH  WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLDER TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION SOUTHEAST PER AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ATTENDANT JET NOW NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
THIS YIELDING BEST LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH ATTM. JET
COUPLING THAT WAS OCCURRING EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WANED WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK SLIDING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...THUS DYNAMIC LIFT HAS DIMINISHED SOME AND THIS WAS NOTED IN
WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY.

LOTS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY WHERE EXISTING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. BULK OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
BEEN STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHERE THE LCL IS VERY LOW AT 750M PER
SPC MESO ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
MUCAPE NEAR OR JUST OVER 500 J/KG...MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL...COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNDERESTIMATION ALONG THE FRINGES
OF KICX DUE TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AIDED
PRECIP EFFICIENCY AS WELL ACROSS THE GRAND STAIRCASE.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE TAPERING
TREND IN PRECIP THAT HAS BEGAN ACROSS THE WEST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
MOST AREAS EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA HAS
SPARKED NICELY AS HRRR INDICATED WOULD OCCUR EARLIER TODAY. WHAT
NOW IS A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...NEVADA CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS WILL TRANSITION EAST WITH THIS WHILST MOVING INTO A
MORE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING BACK INTO THE WASATCH FRONT AT OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN
SHIFTING EAST...LIKE THIS IDEA DUE TO ADDED LIFT ALONG TIGHTENING
AXIS.

THE BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO SOCAL BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW...FILLING SLIGHTLY. AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DRY SOME BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AIRMASS STORMS OVER
TERRAIN AND NEIGHBORING VALLEYS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE FILLING THROUGH THAT TIME BEFORE BECOMING MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE TRACKING SOUTH BY FRIDAY.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 12Z GFS LINING UP BETTER WITH THE ECMWF LATCHING ONTO THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PACNW. PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FALL-LIKE FOR THE TIME
BEING AT LEAST. SAID AMPLIFIED SOLUTION GRAZES THE FAR
NORTH...SURGING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. UPPED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MOSTLY SCATTERED
WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AS
WELL AS H7 VALUES FORECAST TO FALL IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO REESTABLISH ITSELF UNTIL POSSIBLY
MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME ERRATIC AT
TIMES. CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WILL LOCALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS START TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS UTAH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY
AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN LOW INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ010-
     012>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 192232
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
432 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH  WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLDER TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION SOUTHEAST PER AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ATTENDANT JET NOW NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
THIS YIELDING BEST LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH ATTM. JET
COUPLING THAT WAS OCCURRING EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WANED WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK SLIDING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...THUS DYNAMIC LIFT HAS DIMINISHED SOME AND THIS WAS NOTED IN
WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY.

LOTS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY WHERE EXISTING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. BULK OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
BEEN STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHERE THE LCL IS VERY LOW AT 750M PER
SPC MESO ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
MUCAPE NEAR OR JUST OVER 500 J/KG...MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL...COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIFT HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND UNDERESTIMATION ALONG THE FRINGES
OF KICX DUE TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AIDED
PRECIP EFFICIENCY AS WELL ACROSS THE GRAND STAIRCASE.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE TAPERING
TREND IN PRECIP THAT HAS BEGAN ACROSS THE WEST TO SHIFT EAST OVER
MOST AREAS EARLY EVENING.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA HAS
SPARKED NICELY AS HRRR INDICATED WOULD OCCUR EARLIER TODAY. WHAT
NOW IS A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...NEVADA CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS WILL TRANSITION EAST WITH THIS WHILST MOVING INTO A
MORE DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING BACK INTO THE WASATCH FRONT AT OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN
SHIFTING EAST...LIKE THIS IDEA DUE TO ADDED LIFT ALONG TIGHTENING
AXIS.

THE BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO SOCAL BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW...FILLING SLIGHTLY. AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DRY SOME BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AIRMASS STORMS OVER
TERRAIN AND NEIGHBORING VALLEYS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE FILLING THROUGH THAT TIME BEFORE BECOMING MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE TRACKING SOUTH BY FRIDAY.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TAP LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 12Z GFS LINING UP BETTER WITH THE ECMWF LATCHING ONTO THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PACNW. PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FALL-LIKE FOR THE TIME
BEING AT LEAST. SAID AMPLIFIED SOLUTION GRAZES THE FAR
NORTH...SURGING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. UPPED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MOSTLY SCATTERED
WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AS
WELL AS H7 VALUES FORECAST TO FALL IN THE +3 TO +4 RANGE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO REESTABLISH ITSELF UNTIL POSSIBLY
MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME ERRATIC AT
TIMES. CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WILL LOCALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS START TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS UTAH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY
AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN LOW INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ010-
     012>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 191653
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1053 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST MONSOONAL AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH BROAD ASCENT
OWING TO AN ONGOING PRECIP EVENT ALONG A ZONE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH NORTHEAST TO THE WASATCH FRONT. H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES A
CLOSED LOW RESIDING ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOCUSING OVER SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL UTAH.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE ATTENDANT JET HAS TRANSITIONED INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORN...AND COUPLING EXISTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN UTAH WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A NORTHERN
BRANCH JET CORE EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. HAVE THUS FAR SEEN
PRIMARILY STRATIFORM RAINFALL MOST AREAS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION IN AND AROUND DIXIE. HIGHEST RAINFALL OBS/ESTIMATES
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE .5 TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BENEATH THE UPPER COUPLING
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXISTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UTAH WHERE A MID LEVEL
CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS VICINITY KSLC.

DYNAMIC LIFT DRIVING CURRENT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY NOSES ONSHORE.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXISTS BUT HAVE NOTED SOME THINNING ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH ALLOWING SOME WARMING FROM ROUGHLY PRICE
TO LAKE POWELL. ANTICIPATE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR PRECIP
RATES HAVE REMAINED MANAGEABLE BUT EXPECT MANY NORMALLY DRY WASHES
HAVE SOME FLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER PI RATES. HAVE MAINTAINED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS SUCH.

AS BEST LIFT SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS
A TAPERING OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AND
EXPECT A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO EXIST WITHIN A RAINCOOLED
AIRMASS THERE. THAT SAID...WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD OVER
EASTERN NEVADA WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS
LATE DAY THAT COULD WORK EAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN
DESERTS AND POSSIBLY WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
IN THAT AT THIS TIME DUE TO ANTICIPATED STABILITY BUT WILL DELVE
IN A BIT DEEPER AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS FOR TODAY AS ONLY UPDATE.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS LONG TERM BELOW...

THE CA LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SLOWLY
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION...LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS 10-20 PERCENT AS A
RESULT. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THE 00Z EC AND GFS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND PUSHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
FAR NORTHERN UT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A
DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. HOWEVER...WITH A RAIN-COOLED ENVIRONMENT
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS SHIFT WILL NOT OCCUR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ010-
     012>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/VERZELLA/SEAMAN


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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