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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241529
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
BECOME STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TODAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AS
THE LARGE BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS PUSHED NORTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER WARMER THAN AVERAGE
DAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TOMORROW AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MARCHES TOWARD THE REGION. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT WINDS
TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF UTAH.

THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...THOUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24-48
HOURS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA COULD GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE LINGERING SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS NORTH OF THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS STILL IN THE CARDS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY OCTOBER.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS FINE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY WEATHER-WISE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THIS
SWITCH WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 21Z IF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240846
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WESTERLY 140-170KT JET OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.50" MOST VALLEYS.

700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN +8C AND +10C THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE FALLS AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH
BETTER MIXING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (GIVEN 500MB FLOW INCREASING TO
40KTS). THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARE ENHANCED
BY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FALLING HEIGHTS/PRESSURE. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN MINIMIZED DECOUPLING
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT DESPITE A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY. INDICATED A FEW
BUILDUPS IN THE SKY GRIDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
JUST SHY OF A RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY DUE TO THE WARM
START...THOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARD THE EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CROSSING THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH BRUNT OF INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 7500FT...THOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING A LARGE AMOUNT
OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY ITEMS OF INTEREST WITH
THIS STORM. ALREADY TALKED ABOUT PRE-FRONTAL WINDS...WHICH INCREASE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE COLD ADVECTION
IS NOT GREAT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST UTAH INTO
MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PROMOTE GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/CANYON WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS POST FRONTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...
THE TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THOSE FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE HARD FREEZE THRESHOLD
OF 28F FOR MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 14-16Z THIS MORNING AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...QUITE WARM LATE WEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE NEXT WET
COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY...WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING TO ABOUT 7500 FT. MUCH COOLER AND MORE HUMID HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH OVER THE REGION IS ALONG THE
ERN UT BORDER WITH A MILD SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE
THICKEST CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RISING HEIGHTS AND BACKING FLOW WILL SHUNT THE JETSTREAM AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PLUME OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY EXPECTED.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY.

THE LARGE TROF IN THE ERN PAC STARTS TO NOSE INLAND SAT AND THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT PLUS A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD
BOOST WINDS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM AND MAY EVEN RISE
A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY IN THE SALT LAKE AREA.

THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN TWO PARTS WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY AND THE MAIN COLD PUSH SUNDAY
AFTN. IT GENERATES SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BOTH
BOUNDARIES BUT IT IS NOT GENEROUS WITH THE QPF. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS...WITH JUST A
FEW POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS.

UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND TO DECREASE IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240341
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE HIGH OVER THE REGION IS ALONG THE
ERN UT BORDER WITH A MILD SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE
THICKEST CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RISING HEIGHTS AND BACKING FLOW WILL SHUNT THE JETSTREAM AND
ASSOCIATED CIRRUS PLUME OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY EXPECTED.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY.

THE LARGE TROF IN THE ERN PAC STARTS TO NOSE INLAND SAT AND THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT PLUS A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD
BOOST WINDS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM AND MAY EVEN RISE
A LITTLE FROM FRIDAY IN THE SALT LAKE AREA.

THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN TWO PARTS WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY AND THE MAIN COLD PUSH SUNDAY
AFTN. IT GENERATES SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BOTH
BOUNDARIES BUT IT IS NOT GENEROUS WITH THE QPF. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS...WITH JUST A
FEW POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS.

UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND TO DECREASE IT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 232204
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING TO THE EAST OF UTAH WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GENERATE
A WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS SATURDAY.

THE VORTICITY LOBE CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLANK
OF THE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS IT CROSSES NEVADA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING
IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BASIN SHOULD CREATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND RECORD LEVELS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AS THE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY WILL LAG BACK WITH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT OVER WESTERN IDAHO/NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE FIRST THREAT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAG ENOUGH
COLD AIR IN AT THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT DEEP INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP OF UTAH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS
STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...COMPARED
TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GFS. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS MODELS ARE PRODUCING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH NOT WITH
PARTICULARLY HIGH QPF VALUES.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
POST-FRONTALLY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD MSLP GRADIENT AND
DECENT WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE OF THE LARGER UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST IS HOW LONG SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA. IT IS WITH THIS WAVE THAT 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-8 CELSIUS IN THE NORTH...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER THE 500MB
COLD POOL WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...OR REMAIN NORTH OVER IDAHO AND
WYOMING. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A 20 PERCENT POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING SHOWERS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ONE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE 12Z GFS IS THAT IT NOW CLEARS THE
SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IN THE ZONAL FLOW AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
COLDER NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS OF UTAH...AS THAT COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR REMAINS BEHIND IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
FORECAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THESE STILL ARE NOT COLD
ENOUGH...AS THE GUIDANCE HAS YET TO SEE A GOOD COLD FRONT LIKE THIS
ONE SO FAR THIS SEASON.

FOR TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING THE CWA IN A COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM IS THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK.
THE EC KEEPS IT SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS DRAGS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DOWN TO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CACHE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT. EITHER
WAY...BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH
OCCURS AS EARLY AS 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231627
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1027 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
RESULT IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE COLD CORE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A
PERSISTENT COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE THERMAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO UTAH...THOUGH
THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
HIGHER TODAY...THOUGH GOOD MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE UPWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY DOES LOOK TO BE QUITE WINDY AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
NEVADA BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM...BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS
MAY WORK IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WITH ELEVATED MORNING LOWS
AND STILL DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON THE POSSIBILITY OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE CORE OF THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM...
THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE COLDEST AIR AS FAR SOUTH AS
DOES THE GFS.

A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND
MOIST SHOULD MAINTAIN SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
UTAH INTO MONDAY EVENING. ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE BOUNCING BETWEEN
RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE BENCH AREAS
IN THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 20-21Z TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 230845
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC 100-155KT JET OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.60" MOST VALLEYS.

BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS MOISTURE TAP ACROSS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BE GREATER THAN 200% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE JET AXIS NOSING INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST...CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW.

700MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOUT +8C BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY. UNDERCUT TYPICAL BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BLEND
ACROSS SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY AS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
MIXING WILL STILL BE HAMPERED BY THE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.

BY FRIDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. AT THE
SURFACE...PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH BETTER MIXING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(GIVEN 500MB FLOW INCREASING TO 40KTS). THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARE ENHANCED BY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND FALLING HEIGHTS/PRESSURE.

WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN MINIMIZED DECOUPLING
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT DESPITE A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY. INDICATED A FEW
BUILDUPS IN THE SKY GRIDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
JUST SHY OF A RECORD FOR SALT LAKE CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS
ARE NO DIFFERENT IN THIS RESPECT. THE 00Z EC ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER...SOMEWHAT STRONG DISTURBANCE DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE A BIT OF PREFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THIS IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

AS THE TROUGH CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE COLDEST 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL CROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THIS TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
SLOWER GFS FRONTAL TIMING BUT WITH THE QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCE OF SIX HOURS OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
TIMING...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.

DESPITE BEING SOMEWHAT WEAK IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT...THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA.
AFTER NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT SUNDAY...AND THE LOW 50S IN THIS SAME AREA MONDAY.

THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z EC ARE FURTHER
MAGNIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST IN THE EC PREVENTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT IS APPARENT IN THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH THE DEGREE
OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT...WITH ONLY LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY TYPICAL WIND FORECAST IS EXPECTED AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES REBOUND LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY. ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY FRIDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 230419
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN INCREASING
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS IN REASONABLE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KSLC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 230419
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN INCREASING
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS IN REASONABLE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
KSLC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 222123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SUN)...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH
THE RIDGE.

EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS...THAT SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z THU AND CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET SHOULD
ALSO ENHANCE MIXING A BIT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW TEMPS SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH. SWLY
FLOW ALSO PICK UP A LITTLE FRI AND EXPECTED A FEW MORE DEGREES
WARMING. SOUTH WINDS START TO PICK UP SAT AS THE NEXT PAC TROF
STARTS MOVING ASHORE BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON SAT ALTHO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT COULD SHAVE A DEGREE OR SO OFF MAXES
FROM FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WARM
YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH...AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT
COULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE
GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. EITHER WAY...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -8 CELSIUS OVER THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...CURRENT SOLUTIONS DO
PRODUCE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
A BIT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND BROUGHT DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS THE COLD
AIR FILTERS IN...WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT IF SHOWERS HAPPEN TO LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT STARTING TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS
PROMOTING A MOIST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EC HAS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PART OF
THE FORECAST...WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY ON DAY 7. WHILE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR IN DAYS 6-10...THE 12Z RUNS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
UTAH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
CEILINGS ABOVE 7000FT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221543
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
RIDGE.

TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.

THE CIRRUS MAY END UP BEING A BIT THINNER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF SAGS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CWA.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH.

WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221543
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
RIDGE.

TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.

THE CIRRUS MAY END UP BEING A BIT THINNER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF SAGS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CWA.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH.

WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220914
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
314 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS YESTERDAYS SYSTEM ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAILS OVER IDAHO...WITH A
DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC 75-125KT JET OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...WITH A 75-95KT NORTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.20" NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...TO 0.70" EASTERN VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE TO OUR NORTH...BUT A
WEAK JET UNDERCUTTING THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC
FLOW LOOKS TO SUPPLY THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

700MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND FROM A LOW THIS MORNING NEAR 0C TO ABOUT
+8C BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. BUFKIT
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT WILL NOT BE MIXING EFFECTIVELY TODAY
WILL A STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. UNDERCUT
TYPICAL BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BLEND ACROSS THESE AREAS. DID THE
SAME FOR TOMORROW THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A FEW VALLEYS BEGIN TO MIX
MORE EFFECTIVELY IN WHAT COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY.

BY FRIDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. AT THE
SURFACE...PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH BETTER MIXING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(GIVEN 500MB FLOW INCREASING TO 40KTS).

WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN MINIMIZED DECOUPLING
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STORM SYSTEM. 700 MB FLOW IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WOULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING.
CURRENT GFS DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONSET OF PRECIP IS ALSO SLOWER IN
THE GFS. TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LIGHTER AS WELL BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WITH THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE EC
BRINGS IT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AND HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING IS MUCH
WEAKER IN THE LATEST GFS AS IT BRINGS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING PACIFIC
STORM INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE...SHOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DURING THIS PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO FOR
DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A FEW CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY. ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220259
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
859 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS LEFT A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL UT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS THE PARENT TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY
PLUME OF SHALLOW WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH CREST EARLY THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED
BY A SUBTLE SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN UT. UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND ADJACENT WASATCH RANGE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE 700MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INDUCING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...HOWEVER A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIXING...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CONFINED NEAR CLIMO. A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED WARMING
ALOFT...INCREASED FLOW AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KSLC THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT DOES NOT OCCUR AT ALL...AND
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 212122
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
322 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SAT)...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CWA. THIS FRONT IS STALLING OUT AND WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR A MILFORD TO PRICE LINE
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE REFORMED ACROSS
THE FAR N AHEAD OF ONE FINAL VORT LOBE BEFORE THE TROF AXIS
PASSES.

THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE BEFORE MORNING. THE FAR NRN SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY
THIS EVE AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
DIP TO CHILLY LEVELS TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS THIS TROF FOR WED AND THE OLD FRONT
LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND NO PRECIP
WITH THIS WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E THU BUT HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE THU AND FRI WITH A WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN PLACE.

OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSES THE CWA WED THRU THU THEN IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR FRI WITH
LOCAL S WINDS IN THE WRN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT
TRANSFORMS INTO A BROADER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRETTY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER ON SATURDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO TIMING AND STRENGTH AGREEMENT FOR THE
TROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH SO DOES NOT
LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. HAVE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY
AS THE 500 MB COLD POCKET STILL HANGING ON.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE BUT
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 09Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRING BY 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





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