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000
FXUS65 KSLC 160331
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
931 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM RIDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THIS
EVE. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE UINTAS S INTO THE SRN MTNS. CONVECTION ALSO FORMED ALONG THE
NV BORDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN UT AND THIS DRIFTED EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL UT INTO THE EVE WHERE IT HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE NV
BORDER BETWEEN ABOUT WENDOVER AND ELY AND COULD CROSS NRN UT
OVERNIGHT BUT NOTHING OF ANY SUBSTANCE IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS.

THE WARM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUE THRU WED WITH ISOLATED
MAINLY MTN CONVECTION AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS ON TRACK TO SEND PERIPHERAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ODILE INTO THE CWA STARTING WED NIGHT LINGERING INTO
FRI. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT
THAT HIGH BUT LOCAL INCIDENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO REALLY STRUGGLE ON THE POSITION AND
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT GETS LEFT BEHIND AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE LOW IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 152235
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER THIS
RIDGE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS IN FAR EASTERN NEVADA AND
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...MOST OF
THESE CELLS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND LOW TOPPED...WITH ONLY THE STORMS
COMING OUT OF NEVADA GENERALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.

TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES. ON
WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE
WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD...BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR ST. GEORGE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE.

THE BEST MOISTURE SURGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA COMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AN INCH OVER ALMOST ALL
THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGH ON THURSDAY...AS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD BET. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT PW VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH OVER UTAH AS WITH HURRICANE NORBERT...AND
THE DURATION/STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN THE
EVENT LAST WEEK. ALL OF THIS SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THE MOMENT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF THE NORBERT EVENT.

MODELS PUSH A PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH DRIES OUT THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY...AND WHERE
THIS LOW GOES AFTER THAT HAS A LARGE IMPACT ON IF/WHEN MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE CWA. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED ABOUT HALF A DOZEN
DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR THIS LOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FOR THE WEEKEND...AS SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR DAYS 5-7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED NORMS BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TOMORROW AND
INCH UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 152235
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
435 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER THIS
RIDGE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS IN FAR EASTERN NEVADA AND
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...MOST OF
THESE CELLS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND LOW TOPPED...WITH ONLY THE STORMS
COMING OUT OF NEVADA GENERALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.

TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES. ON
WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE
WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD...BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR ST. GEORGE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE.

THE BEST MOISTURE SURGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA COMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AN INCH OVER ALMOST ALL
THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGH ON THURSDAY...AS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD BET. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT PW VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH OVER UTAH AS WITH HURRICANE NORBERT...AND
THE DURATION/STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN THE
EVENT LAST WEEK. ALL OF THIS SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AT THE MOMENT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF THE NORBERT EVENT.

MODELS PUSH A PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH DRIES OUT THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY...AND WHERE
THIS LOW GOES AFTER THAT HAS A LARGE IMPACT ON IF/WHEN MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE CWA. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED ABOUT HALF A DOZEN
DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR THIS LOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FOR THE WEEKEND...AS SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR DAYS 5-7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED NORMS BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TOMORROW AND
INCH UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 151550
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD LARGELY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE COULD MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST
DAYS FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS UTAH.
DETAILS ABOUT THIS MOISTURE SURGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
FRIDAY...REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 12Z
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE A BIT FOR THE
EXTENDED.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO A WIDE
SWATH OF CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VICINITY MOISTURE MAY PROMOTE
VIRGA NEAR THE TERMINAL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 151550
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD LARGELY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE COULD MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST
DAYS FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS UTAH.
DETAILS ABOUT THIS MOISTURE SURGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND
FRIDAY...REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 12Z
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE A BIT FOR THE
EXTENDED.

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO A WIDE
SWATH OF CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VICINITY MOISTURE MAY PROMOTE
VIRGA NEAR THE TERMINAL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 151012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH
OF THE WESTERN US WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE WILL
REMAIN EFFECTIVELY PINNED BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO WESTERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING
MIDWEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING IS GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT FOR WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA MID-MORNING.

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SPAWN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BOTH AFTERNOONS.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION COULD FORM UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME...WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN TRAILING BACK INTO THE
CORE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (BEGINNING 06Z FRIDAY)...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHERE...WHEN AND IF A CLOSED LOW
SHOULD FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/EASTERN PACIFIC COME
FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
WITH THE CLOSED LOW NOT FORMING UNTIL THE TROUGH IS OVER CALIFORNIA
...THEN THE LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE EC HAS THE LOW
FORMING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVING DOWN THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH. EACH SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE SO DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH IN THE GRIDS OTHER THAN KEEP CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WARRANTS THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT INCH UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE
BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE REMAINING FAR TO THE SOUTH IN ARIZONA.
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 151012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH
OF THE WESTERN US WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE WILL
REMAIN EFFECTIVELY PINNED BY THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO/SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO WESTERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING
MIDWEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING IS GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT FOR WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA MID-MORNING.

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SPAWN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TUESDAY. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BOTH AFTERNOONS.

LOOKING AT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF INTO WESTERN
COLORADO. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION COULD FORM UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME...WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN TRAILING BACK INTO THE
CORE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ADVANCING WEST COAST UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (BEGINNING 06Z FRIDAY)...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF WHERE...WHEN AND IF A CLOSED LOW
SHOULD FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/EASTERN PACIFIC COME
FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE SHOULD HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
WITH THE CLOSED LOW NOT FORMING UNTIL THE TROUGH IS OVER CALIFORNIA
...THEN THE LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE EC HAS THE LOW
FORMING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVING DOWN THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH. EACH SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE SO DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH IN THE GRIDS OTHER THAN KEEP CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WARRANTS THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT INCH UPWARD WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE
BROUGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE REMAINING FAR TO THE SOUTH IN ARIZONA.
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THEN SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 150403
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN THIS EVE WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK THRU THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES. THESE HAVE GENERATED A LITTLE
HIGH BASED SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER NWRN UT AT THIS TIME. DONT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT
OF RAIN FROM THIS AND EVEN THE WIND THREAT APPEARS LOW.

THE 18Z GFS HAD A NEW SOLUTION ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE POISED TO LIFT INTO THE CWA AND THE TRACK OF THE REMAINS
OF ODILE. IT WAS FASTER MOVING THE CA CLOSED LOW INLAND WHICH DOES
NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
CWA AND TAKES THE OLD CORE OF ODILE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS SOLUTION SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR OUR CWA BUT IT IS THE FIRST RUN THAT IS SHOWING THIS SO
WOULD NOT PUT TOO MUCH FAITH IN THESE IDEAS YET.

WHAT IT DOES HOWEVER IS LOWER THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL PLAY OUT AND HOW MUCH OF ANY HEAVY RAIN FALLS.

FOR NOW DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 06-08Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 150403
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN THIS EVE WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK THRU THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES. THESE HAVE GENERATED A LITTLE
HIGH BASED SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE
TO DO SO OVER NWRN UT AT THIS TIME. DONT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT
OF RAIN FROM THIS AND EVEN THE WIND THREAT APPEARS LOW.

THE 18Z GFS HAD A NEW SOLUTION ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE POISED TO LIFT INTO THE CWA AND THE TRACK OF THE REMAINS
OF ODILE. IT WAS FASTER MOVING THE CA CLOSED LOW INLAND WHICH DOES
NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A WINDOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
CWA AND TAKES THE OLD CORE OF ODILE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS SOLUTION SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR OUR CWA BUT IT IS THE FIRST RUN THAT IS SHOWING THIS SO
WOULD NOT PUT TOO MUCH FAITH IN THESE IDEAS YET.

WHAT IT DOES HOWEVER IS LOWER THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS
RAIN EVENT WILL PLAY OUT AND HOW MUCH OF ANY HEAVY RAIN FALLS.

FOR NOW DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PASSING
HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO THE
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 06-08Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 142201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY STATEWIDE. MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS
IN THE PACIFIC...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
SHOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INHALES MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. MODEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PWAT VALUES SURGE ABOVE AN INCH BY THE
AFTERNOON...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE HAS EMBRACED MOST OF THE CWA. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.25 INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...PROMOTING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST.
DRYING BEGINS IN THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THOUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCE AMPLE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
02-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT TODAY WYZ277

&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 142201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY STATEWIDE. MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS
IN THE PACIFIC...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
SHOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INHALES MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. MODEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PWAT VALUES SURGE ABOVE AN INCH BY THE
AFTERNOON...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE HAS EMBRACED MOST OF THE CWA. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.25 INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...PROMOTING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST.
DRYING BEGINS IN THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THOUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCE AMPLE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
02-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT TODAY WYZ277

&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141549
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AGAIN TODAY...CONTINUING THE 500 MB ZONAL WIND FLOW
REGIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON MAY AID IN MIXING THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE SLC RAOB SOUNDING THIS
MORNING...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

A BETTER CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON EXISTS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHERE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
HEATING AND DECENT LIFTED INDICES TO PROMOTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. CURRENT GOES PWAT VALUES
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SHOWING VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OOZING
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 141549
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AGAIN TODAY...CONTINUING THE 500 MB ZONAL WIND FLOW
REGIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON MAY AID IN MIXING THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT INDICATED BY THE SLC RAOB SOUNDING THIS
MORNING...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

A BETTER CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON EXISTS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHERE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
HEATING AND DECENT LIFTED INDICES TO PROMOTE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. CURRENT GOES PWAT VALUES
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SHOWING VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OOZING
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY)...THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN
UTAH OR WESTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH TO WORK NORTH
INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH MIDWEEK.

THE LATEST GOES IMAGERY PLACES PWAT VALUES OF /.75/ - /1.00/
INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE EXITING THE CENTRAL SIERRAS AT TIME
MAY CHANGE THAT DYNAMIC A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
COULD ADD JUST ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORT TO BOOST THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. NORTHERN
UTAH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL STILL GENERATE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER
REGION AND THE DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL FINALLY OPEN UP NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH TO A MOISTURE SURGE
LATE IN THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF /1.00/ INCHES WILL
REACH SOUTHWEST UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEYOND. CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STRETCH INTO
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORM UP LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WERE TO GRAZE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GRADUAL BUILDING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE
APPROACHES. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC AND THE GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEY BOTH BRING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES PWAT OVER
0.75 OF AN INCH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS TIME MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL HAVE PWAT GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH WITH ISOLATED 1.25
INCHES. THE PW FORECAST FOR SLC IS ABOUT 1.10 INCHES WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS
EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS THE EC AND GFS ARE NOW
A LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE. TIMING OF WHEN TO
DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHWEST IS A LITTLE
CHALLENGING SINCE THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW
THE TROUGH EVOLVES. THE EC LEAVES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH ALLOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THEN THE GFS WHICH
HOLDS THE TROUGH TOGETHER. THE GFS 500 MB TEMP IS 4 DEGREES C
COLDER THEN THE EC IS COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ARGUE TO
KEEP INSTABILITY SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY OVER A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE CWA WHILE THE EC BEING WARMER AND FASTER WITH THE
TROUGH HAS LESS POPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY WYZ277

&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 141016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY)...THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN
UTAH OR WESTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW THE
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE POOLED TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH TO WORK NORTH
INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH MIDWEEK.

THE LATEST GOES IMAGERY PLACES PWAT VALUES OF /.75/ - /1.00/
INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE EXITING THE CENTRAL SIERRAS AT TIME
MAY CHANGE THAT DYNAMIC A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
COULD ADD JUST ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT SUPPORT TO BOOST THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH. NORTHERN
UTAH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL STILL GENERATE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER
REGION AND THE DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL FINALLY OPEN UP NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH TO A MOISTURE SURGE
LATE IN THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF /1.00/ INCHES WILL
REACH SOUTHWEST UTAH WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEYOND. CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STRETCH INTO
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORM UP LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH IF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WERE TO GRAZE THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GRADUAL BUILDING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE
APPROACHES. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
EC AND THE GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEY BOTH BRING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRYING BEGINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES PWAT OVER
0.75 OF AN INCH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS TIME MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WILL HAVE PWAT GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH WITH ISOLATED 1.25
INCHES. THE PW FORECAST FOR SLC IS ABOUT 1.10 INCHES WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INCREASED POPS
EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS THE EC AND GFS ARE NOW
A LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE. TIMING OF WHEN TO
DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHWEST IS A LITTLE
CHALLENGING SINCE THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW
THE TROUGH EVOLVES. THE EC LEAVES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH ALLOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER THEN THE GFS WHICH
HOLDS THE TROUGH TOGETHER. THE GFS 500 MB TEMP IS 4 DEGREES C
COLDER THEN THE EC IS COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ARGUE TO
KEEP INSTABILITY SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY OVER A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE CWA WHILE THE EC BEING WARMER AND FASTER WITH THE
TROUGH HAS LESS POPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY WYZ277

&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140559 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1158 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NV THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CA HAS GENERATED A SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AND CENTRAL UT AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW BROUGHT A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO SRN UT TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMED
OVER THE SRN MTNS. THIS LIKELY DID NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT BEST.

THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST SUN AND MON THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD TUE KEEPING A WARM BUT FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A LITTLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
ALTHO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING MOISTURE IN
PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEW NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
RIDGE STARTING TOMORROW INTO MON WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE
STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF IT UNTIL WED. THE GFS
STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUE BUT KEEPS IT
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR CWA TIL LATER WED.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE SURGING NWD THU AND
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRI. THE EC HOWEVER FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OUT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN PAC TROF ON TUE THAT IT
PARKS ALONG THE CA COAST THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TOO SPREADS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED
NIGHT/THU BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE ACTUAL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA INTO MON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN THU INTO FRI WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY...AND POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
OCCUR THU INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FIRE WEATHER ZONE 277 FROM 200 PM MDT
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 800 PM MDT SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140559 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1158 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NV THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CA HAS GENERATED A SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AND CENTRAL UT AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW BROUGHT A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO SRN UT TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMED
OVER THE SRN MTNS. THIS LIKELY DID NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT BEST.

THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST SUN AND MON THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD TUE KEEPING A WARM BUT FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A LITTLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
ALTHO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING MOISTURE IN
PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEW NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
RIDGE STARTING TOMORROW INTO MON WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE
STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF IT UNTIL WED. THE GFS
STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUE BUT KEEPS IT
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR CWA TIL LATER WED.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE SURGING NWD THU AND
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRI. THE EC HOWEVER FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OUT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN PAC TROF ON TUE THAT IT
PARKS ALONG THE CA COAST THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TOO SPREADS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED
NIGHT/THU BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE ACTUAL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA INTO MON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN THU INTO FRI WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY...AND POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
OCCUR THU INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...NONE.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FIRE WEATHER ZONE 277 FROM 200 PM MDT
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 800 PM MDT SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140309
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
909 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NV THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CA HAS GENERATED A SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AND CENTRAL UT AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW BROUGHT A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO SRN UT TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMED
OVER THE SRN MTNS. THIS LIKELY DID NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT BEST.

THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST SUN AND MON THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD TUE KEEPING A WARM BUT FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A LITTLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
ALTHO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING MOISTURE IN
PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEW NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
RIDGE STARTING TOMORROW INTO MON WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE
STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF IT UNTIL WED. THE GFS
STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUE BUT KEEPS IT
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR CWA TIL LATER WED.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE SURGING NWD THU AND
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRI. THE EC HOWEVER FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OUT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN PAC TROF ON TUE THAT IT
PARKS ALONG THE CA COAST THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TOO SPREADS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED
NIGHT/THU BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE ACTUAL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA INTO MON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN THU INTO FRI WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY...AND POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
OCCUR THU INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140309
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
909 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NV THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING CA HAS GENERATED A SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AND CENTRAL UT AND
THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THIS WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW BROUGHT A
LITTLE MOISTURE INTO SRN UT TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMED
OVER THE SRN MTNS. THIS LIKELY DID NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT BEST.

THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST SUN AND MON THEN MOVES
OVERHEAD TUE KEEPING A WARM BUT FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A LITTLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES
ALTHO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALLOWING MOISTURE IN
PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEW NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE
RIDGE STARTING TOMORROW INTO MON WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE
STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE PINNED SOUTH OF IT UNTIL WED. THE GFS
STARTS TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUE BUT KEEPS IT
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR CWA TIL LATER WED.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE SURGING NWD THU AND
REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA INTO FRI. THE EC HOWEVER FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OUT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN PAC TROF ON TUE THAT IT
PARKS ALONG THE CA COAST THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TOO SPREADS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED
NIGHT/THU BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE ACTUAL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ODILE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CWA INTO MON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

SO IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL GET AT LEAST SOME
RAIN THU INTO FRI WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY...AND POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL
OCCUR THU INTO THE WEEKEND IF THE EC IS CORRECT.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 132200
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATED TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENSCONCED UTAH...THOUGH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO THICKEN IN NORTHERN UTAH. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS RETURNED TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL NORMS STATEWIDE
TODAY. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO UTAH. THIS SHIFT COUPLED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST UTAH.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING IN THE PACIFIC FORCES THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE WILL SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURDSAY. MOISTURE CAREENS
INTO THE REST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS DISAGREE ON
EXTENT OF COOLING...WITH THE EC NOW WARMER THAN THE GFS AT
700MB...BUT BOTH CONCUR THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH
A DROP OF 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 0200 UTC AND 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW TO RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...GRAHAM

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 131615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS INCHES ITS WAY TOWARD
UTAH TODAY...ENCOURAGING A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STATEWIDE AND A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
WITH GOES PWAT INDICATING A CURRENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AZ- UT BORDER THIS MORNING...THE GREATEST DRAMA FOR TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERDEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH GFS LIFTED INDICES RATHER
PALTRY AND CAPE NON-EXISTENT IN BOTH GFS AND SREF...HAVE KEPT POPS
MINIMAL FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL AREAS
OF VIRGA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

GFS FORECASTED PWAT BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
STATE TOMORROW...ENCOURAGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UTAH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES
CONFIRM THIS IDEA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING TEMPS UP QUICKLY FROM YESTERDAYS
SUB-NORMAL CHILL...TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 131615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS INCHES ITS WAY TOWARD
UTAH TODAY...ENCOURAGING A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STATEWIDE AND A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
WITH GOES PWAT INDICATING A CURRENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AZ- UT BORDER THIS MORNING...THE GREATEST DRAMA FOR TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERDEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH GFS LIFTED INDICES RATHER
PALTRY AND CAPE NON-EXISTENT IN BOTH GFS AND SREF...HAVE KEPT POPS
MINIMAL FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL AREAS
OF VIRGA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

GFS FORECASTED PWAT BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
STATE TOMORROW...ENCOURAGING A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UTAH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES
CONFIRM THIS IDEA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING TEMPS UP QUICKLY FROM YESTERDAYS
SUB-NORMAL CHILL...TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 131027
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
427 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE STATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK.

THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN PINNED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH BY
THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION. GOES PWAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW MOISTURE
NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WILL GENERATE CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT SIMILAR THREAT
SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP REACHING INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTH
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NEVADA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST UTAH BY MIDWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO READINGS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TO
TEMPS A BIT TODAY AS MIXING IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AND THE NEAR
700MB TEMPS ARE ONLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING SUNDAY WITH READING GETTING BACK TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE.

THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE
HIGH ALONG WITH THE MID-SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP WARMING
IN CHECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH READINGS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP
THE BAJA COAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP THE BAJA
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
UP THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH IT. THE EC IS
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL FORECAST BUT THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS BIG
TIME FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS GFS SHOWS WIDE AREA OF
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND PWAT GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ABOUT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03-04Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 131027
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
427 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE STATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK.

THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN PINNED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH BY
THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION. GOES PWAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW MOISTURE
NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WILL GENERATE CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT SIMILAR THREAT
SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP REACHING INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTH
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NEVADA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST UTAH BY MIDWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO READINGS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TO
TEMPS A BIT TODAY AS MIXING IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AND THE NEAR
700MB TEMPS ARE ONLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING SUNDAY WITH READING GETTING BACK TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE.

THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE
HIGH ALONG WITH THE MID-SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP WARMING
IN CHECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH READINGS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP
THE BAJA COAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP THE BAJA
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
UP THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH IT. THE EC IS
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL FORECAST BUT THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS BIG
TIME FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS GFS SHOWS WIDE AREA OF
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND PWAT GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ABOUT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03-04Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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