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000
FXUS65 KSLC 182134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
334 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...EXITING STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED
THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LEFT UTAH. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE
CWA. WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 5F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

WEAK TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BRING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...RESULTING IN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WAVE SHOULD ALSO
SLOW THE WARMING OF THE AIRMASS...SO THE TREND OF INCREASING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOW JUST A BIT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AROUND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS DOES NOT DRY OUT MUCH SO AT
LEAST AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN REMAINS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO RUN AT LEAST 10F ABOVE CLIMO BY THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO VARY...CONTINUING THE TREND OF CHALLENGING
LONG TERM FORECASTS. TO START...A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH SITS OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH
HEADWAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
MAY EVENTUALLY SPLIT...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS RIDING NORTH AND EAST
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER FAIRLY SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH SPLITTING AROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA? MAINLY
THAT IT IS HARD TO FOCUS IN ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE AT THIS POINT DUE
TO POOR MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON RATHER SUBTLE
FEATURES GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TRENDS MATCH THE CURRENT FORECAST WELL...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONVECTIVE...SO MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 03-05Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE WIND. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
AS LATE AS 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181523
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING ABOUT 5F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CURBING THE WARMING TREND A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO KEEP SOME INSTABILITY AROUND AS THE
FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM EXITS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE
THREAT IS LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WORSE THAN USUAL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181523
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING ABOUT 5F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CURBING THE WARMING TREND A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO KEEP SOME INSTABILITY AROUND AS THE
FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM EXITS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE
THREAT IS LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WORSE THAN USUAL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 181523
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING ABOUT 5F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CURBING THE WARMING TREND A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO KEEP SOME INSTABILITY AROUND AS THE
FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM EXITS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE
THREAT IS LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WORSE THAN USUAL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 181523
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
923 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING ABOUT 5F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CURBING THE WARMING TREND A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO KEEP SOME INSTABILITY AROUND AS THE
FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM EXITS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE
THREAT IS LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING WORSE THAN USUAL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 180945
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE RESIDUAL
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN UT SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES UNDER THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN CWA FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY TERRAIN BASED DEVELOPMENT. THIS LINGERS INTO THE
EVE THEN FADES.

THE AIRMASS WARMS A LITTLE MORE TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD RISE ABOVE
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS LEVEL OFF SUN THEN RISE A LITTLE
MORE MON AND TUE.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SET OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION SUN. BY MON WEAK
DEFORMATION STARTS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC AND GIVES CONVECTION AN ASSIST.
THE DEFORMATION LIFTS NORTH TUE AND CONVECTION EXPANDS SOMEWHAT AS
THE WEAK LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ASHORE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE
OCCURRING TO BEGIN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ESTABLISH THIS WITH FORMATION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP IN
THE GULF OF AK ATTM. THE PRIOR IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE LATTER
POISED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DETAILS REGARDING BOTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVIATE
SLIGHTLY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA OF UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. CONTINUED
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS...BUT MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS
AS SLIGHT CHANCE TRENDING TO CHANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
TRANSITION WELL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 10-12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 180945
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
345 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE RESIDUAL
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN UT SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES UNDER THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN CWA FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY TERRAIN BASED DEVELOPMENT. THIS LINGERS INTO THE
EVE THEN FADES.

THE AIRMASS WARMS A LITTLE MORE TODAY AND HIGHS SHOULD RISE ABOVE
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS LEVEL OFF SUN THEN RISE A LITTLE
MORE MON AND TUE.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SET OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION SUN. BY MON WEAK
DEFORMATION STARTS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC AND GIVES CONVECTION AN ASSIST.
THE DEFORMATION LIFTS NORTH TUE AND CONVECTION EXPANDS SOMEWHAT AS
THE WEAK LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ASHORE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
THAT A TRANSITION TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE
OCCURRING TO BEGIN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ESTABLISH THIS WITH FORMATION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP IN
THE GULF OF AK ATTM. THE PRIOR IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE LATTER
POISED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DETAILS REGARDING BOTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVIATE
SLIGHTLY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA OF UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPS REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. CONTINUED
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN GRIDS...BUT MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POPS
AS SLIGHT CHANCE TRENDING TO CHANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
TRANSITION WELL ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 10-12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18-19Z PER NORM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 180343
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...SPILLING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO UTAH.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE SPINE OF UTAH AND POINTS
EAST...BUT ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCED ENHANCED CANYON
WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS AT 700MB ARE MORE
NORTHERLY THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE TERRAIN WOULD SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ACT ON THE REMAINING
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TOMORROW.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY
AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BY 04Z OR 05Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 180343
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...SPILLING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO UTAH.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE SPINE OF UTAH AND POINTS
EAST...BUT ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED
DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCED ENHANCED CANYON
WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS AT 700MB ARE MORE
NORTHERLY THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE TERRAIN WOULD SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ACT ON THE REMAINING
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TOMORROW.

UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY
AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BY 04Z OR 05Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN UT...HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE VERTICAL
PROFILE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHERN UT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER OF
NORTHERN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH
A LESSER THREAT ACROSS THE SAME AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST A SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEVELOPING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK...AND CARVING THIS
TROUGH INLAND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF RAISING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY CIGS IN THE
6-7 KFT RANGE AT KSLC THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z. ASIDE FROM THIS NO
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN UT...HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE VERTICAL
PROFILE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHERN UT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER OF
NORTHERN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH
A LESSER THREAT ACROSS THE SAME AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST A SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEVELOPING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK...AND CARVING THIS
TROUGH INLAND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF RAISING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY CIGS IN THE
6-7 KFT RANGE AT KSLC THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z. ASIDE FROM THIS NO
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY...LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN UT...HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE VERTICAL
PROFILE PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHERN UT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER OF
NORTHERN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH
A LESSER THREAT ACROSS THE SAME AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST A SMALL THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS TIME ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL DEVELOPING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK...AND CARVING THIS
TROUGH INLAND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF RAISING POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY CIGS IN THE
6-7 KFT RANGE AT KSLC THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z. ASIDE FROM THIS NO
OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING
AROUND THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LOW
ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WHICH DEVELOPED THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT HAVE ABATED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AT
THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT LOWER CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS COULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...BUT IN GENERAL NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z SATURDAY...WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING
AROUND THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LOW
ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WHICH DEVELOPED THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT HAVE ABATED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AT
THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT LOWER CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS COULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...BUT IN GENERAL NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z SATURDAY...WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING
AROUND THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LOW
ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WHICH DEVELOPED THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT HAVE ABATED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AT
THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT LOWER CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS COULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...BUT IN GENERAL NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z SATURDAY...WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY MEANDERING
AROUND THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LOW
ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND CLOUD COVER TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WITHIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY AND
SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WHICH DEVELOPED THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT HAVE ABATED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AT
THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT LOWER CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS COULD BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...BUT IN GENERAL NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z SATURDAY...WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171100
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS ON THE MOVE EARLY THIS
MORNING BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN CO. THE COLD AIR WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS IN ERN UT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.

THIS WRAPAROUND PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT THRU THE
MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING THE VALLEYS SHOULD MELT
AS IT FALLS AND NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL. LOCAL SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 6500-7000 FT THRU ABOUT MID
MORNING BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN OVER
THE HIGHEST PASSES SUCH AS INDIAN CANYON BETWEEN PRICE AND
DUCHESNE.

PRECIP SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTN AND COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST BUT THE CONTINUED WARMING AIRMASS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS EAST SHOULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS AND PRECLUDE ANY ROAD
IMPACTS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TODAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS THE WRN CWA BUT REMAINING COOLER OVER THE EAST
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

IT APPEARS THE PRECIP THREAT FROM THE CO LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR
CWA BY SAT MORNING BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TRAILING NNWLY
FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE COULD BRING SOME WEAK CONVECTION
SUN AFTN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MORE OF THE CWA WITH YET
ANOTHER FOR MON.

TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE MORE SAT THEN LEVEL OFF SUN AND MON AS THE
WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM WARMING ANY FURTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WITH SOME KIND
OF WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA...WITH THE EC A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION. EITHER WAY
THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BUT LEFT THE TOKEN POPS INTACT. BY
WEDNESDAY THIS LOBE OF TROUGHINESS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
CREATING SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER THIS POINT THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
HAVE TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EITHER A TROUGH OR
MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS. NOT POSITIVE WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR SO WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT TROUGHINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEREFORE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE
OPEN TROUGH DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
...PLACING UTAH UNDER A GREATER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS
A CLOSED LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST UTAH. KNOWING THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT EITHER ONE
OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL BE RIGHT ON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE COOLED THE DAILY MAX DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO OTHER DIRECTIONS AT LIGHT
SPEEDS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 171100
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS ON THE MOVE EARLY THIS
MORNING BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN CO. THE COLD AIR WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS IN ERN UT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.

THIS WRAPAROUND PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT THRU THE
MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING THE VALLEYS SHOULD MELT
AS IT FALLS AND NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL. LOCAL SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 6500-7000 FT THRU ABOUT MID
MORNING BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN OVER
THE HIGHEST PASSES SUCH AS INDIAN CANYON BETWEEN PRICE AND
DUCHESNE.

PRECIP SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTN AND COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST BUT THE CONTINUED WARMING AIRMASS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS EAST SHOULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS AND PRECLUDE ANY ROAD
IMPACTS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TODAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS THE WRN CWA BUT REMAINING COOLER OVER THE EAST
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

IT APPEARS THE PRECIP THREAT FROM THE CO LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR
CWA BY SAT MORNING BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TRAILING NNWLY
FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE COULD BRING SOME WEAK CONVECTION
SUN AFTN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MORE OF THE CWA WITH YET
ANOTHER FOR MON.

TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE MORE SAT THEN LEVEL OFF SUN AND MON AS THE
WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM WARMING ANY FURTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WITH SOME KIND
OF WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA...WITH THE EC A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION. EITHER WAY
THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BUT LEFT THE TOKEN POPS INTACT. BY
WEDNESDAY THIS LOBE OF TROUGHINESS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
CREATING SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER THIS POINT THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
HAVE TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EITHER A TROUGH OR
MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS. NOT POSITIVE WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR SO WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT TROUGHINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEREFORE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE
OPEN TROUGH DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
...PLACING UTAH UNDER A GREATER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS
A CLOSED LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST UTAH. KNOWING THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT EITHER ONE
OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL BE RIGHT ON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE COOLED THE DAILY MAX DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO OTHER DIRECTIONS AT LIGHT
SPEEDS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 171100
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS ON THE MOVE EARLY THIS
MORNING BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN CO. THE COLD AIR WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS IN ERN UT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.

THIS WRAPAROUND PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT THRU THE
MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING THE VALLEYS SHOULD MELT
AS IT FALLS AND NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL. LOCAL SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 6500-7000 FT THRU ABOUT MID
MORNING BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN OVER
THE HIGHEST PASSES SUCH AS INDIAN CANYON BETWEEN PRICE AND
DUCHESNE.

PRECIP SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTN AND COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST BUT THE CONTINUED WARMING AIRMASS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS EAST SHOULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS AND PRECLUDE ANY ROAD
IMPACTS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TODAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS THE WRN CWA BUT REMAINING COOLER OVER THE EAST
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

IT APPEARS THE PRECIP THREAT FROM THE CO LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR
CWA BY SAT MORNING BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TRAILING NNWLY
FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE COULD BRING SOME WEAK CONVECTION
SUN AFTN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MORE OF THE CWA WITH YET
ANOTHER FOR MON.

TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE MORE SAT THEN LEVEL OFF SUN AND MON AS THE
WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM WARMING ANY FURTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WITH SOME KIND
OF WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA...WITH THE EC A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION. EITHER WAY
THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BUT LEFT THE TOKEN POPS INTACT. BY
WEDNESDAY THIS LOBE OF TROUGHINESS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
CREATING SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER THIS POINT THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
HAVE TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EITHER A TROUGH OR
MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS. NOT POSITIVE WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR SO WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT TROUGHINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEREFORE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE
OPEN TROUGH DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
...PLACING UTAH UNDER A GREATER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS
A CLOSED LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST UTAH. KNOWING THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT EITHER ONE
OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL BE RIGHT ON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE COOLED THE DAILY MAX DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO OTHER DIRECTIONS AT LIGHT
SPEEDS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 171100
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW IS ON THE MOVE EARLY THIS
MORNING BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SRN CO. THE COLD AIR WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS MODIFIED SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS IN ERN UT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA.

THIS WRAPAROUND PRECIP SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT THRU THE
MORNING AND WOULD EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING THE VALLEYS SHOULD MELT
AS IT FALLS AND NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL. LOCAL SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 6500-7000 FT THRU ABOUT MID
MORNING BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN OVER
THE HIGHEST PASSES SUCH AS INDIAN CANYON BETWEEN PRICE AND
DUCHESNE.

PRECIP SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTN AND COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST BUT THE CONTINUED WARMING AIRMASS AS THE LOW
DRIFTS EAST SHOULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS AND PRECLUDE ANY ROAD
IMPACTS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TODAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS THE WRN CWA BUT REMAINING COOLER OVER THE EAST
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

IT APPEARS THE PRECIP THREAT FROM THE CO LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR
CWA BY SAT MORNING BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TRAILING NNWLY
FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE COULD BRING SOME WEAK CONVECTION
SUN AFTN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MORE OF THE CWA WITH YET
ANOTHER FOR MON.

TEMPS MODIFY A LITTLE MORE SAT THEN LEVEL OFF SUN AND MON AS THE
WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM WARMING ANY FURTHER.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WITH SOME KIND
OF WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA...WITH THE EC A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION. EITHER WAY
THIS PLACES UTAH UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BUT LEFT THE TOKEN POPS INTACT. BY
WEDNESDAY THIS LOBE OF TROUGHINESS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
CREATING SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

AFTER THIS POINT THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL
HAVE TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EITHER A TROUGH OR
MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS. NOT POSITIVE WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR SO WENT WITH THE IDEA THAT TROUGHINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEREFORE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE
OPEN TROUGH DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
...PLACING UTAH UNDER A GREATER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE THE EC HAS
A CLOSED LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHWEST UTAH. KNOWING THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT EITHER ONE
OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL BE RIGHT ON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE COOLED THE DAILY MAX DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO OTHER DIRECTIONS AT LIGHT
SPEEDS THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 170321
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
921 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
INTO UTAH...KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION IS NOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN UTAH...AND AS
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...NORTHERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MANY AREAS. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT OCCURRING IN SOME ISOLATED AND
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

EXPECT LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTERN VALLEYS TOMORROW BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT BUT PERIODIC SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OR OTHER DIRECTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO EDDYING
EFFECTS. AFTER 09-10Z EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NO CIG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 170321
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
921 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
INTO UTAH...KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION IS NOW CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTHERN UTAH...AND AS
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT...A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...NORTHERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP IN MANY AREAS. AS A
RESULT...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT OCCURRING IN SOME ISOLATED AND
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

EXPECT LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SPINE OF UTAH AND EASTERN VALLEYS TOMORROW BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT BUT PERIODIC SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OR OTHER DIRECTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO EDDYING
EFFECTS. AFTER 09-10Z EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. NO CIG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162210
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND IS
RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED MORE
OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTIER WINDS
NEAR THE CANYONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DONT
EXPECT THESE TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28F OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY KIND OF FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO CO...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PULL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC
HAVE DIFFERED IN RECENT RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS SUCH HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...SUNDAYS WAVE WEAKENS AND MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS OFF INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUING WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...OUT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRULY ACTIVE DAYS PRECIPITATION-WISE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE LARGE CLOSED
LOWS OVER BOTH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH
IS A PATTERN JUST ASKING FOR INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET
AT THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A PASSING
SHOWER COULD MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WOULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL. WIND DIRECTION AFTER 04Z IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IS
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT PERIODS OF STEADY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 162210
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND IS
RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED MORE
OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTIER WINDS
NEAR THE CANYONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DONT
EXPECT THESE TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28F OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY KIND OF FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO CO...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PULL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC
HAVE DIFFERED IN RECENT RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS SUCH HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...SUNDAYS WAVE WEAKENS AND MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS OFF INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUING WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...OUT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRULY ACTIVE DAYS PRECIPITATION-WISE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE LARGE CLOSED
LOWS OVER BOTH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH
IS A PATTERN JUST ASKING FOR INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET
AT THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A PASSING
SHOWER COULD MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WOULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL. WIND DIRECTION AFTER 04Z IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IS
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT PERIODS OF STEADY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 162210
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND IS
RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED MORE
OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTIER WINDS
NEAR THE CANYONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DONT
EXPECT THESE TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28F OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY KIND OF FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO CO...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PULL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC
HAVE DIFFERED IN RECENT RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS SUCH HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...SUNDAYS WAVE WEAKENS AND MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS OFF INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUING WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...OUT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRULY ACTIVE DAYS PRECIPITATION-WISE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE LARGE CLOSED
LOWS OVER BOTH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH
IS A PATTERN JUST ASKING FOR INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET
AT THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A PASSING
SHOWER COULD MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WOULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL. WIND DIRECTION AFTER 04Z IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IS
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT PERIODS OF STEADY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 161920 RRA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
945 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL CO
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF UT HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS UPPER FORCING IS CURRENTLY AT A
LULL...AND PLAN TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST UT.

THE NEXT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH
ANOTHER PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CO AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN VALLEYS. WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATER ON. OTHERWISE HAVE DROPPED GOING ADVISORY
FOR SOUTHWEST WY WHERE SNOW HAS GENERALLY ABATED AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY. OTHERWISE
SREF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL ADD
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE WARMING
700MB TEMPS YIELD A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TODAY...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z THURSDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35
MPH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
UTZ010-     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 161920 RRA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
945 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO CENTRAL CO
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF UT HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS UPPER FORCING IS CURRENTLY AT A
LULL...AND PLAN TO DROP THE GOING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST UT.

THE NEXT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH
ANOTHER PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CO AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN VALLEYS. WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
AS PRECIP DEVELOPS LATER ON. OTHERWISE HAVE DROPPED GOING ADVISORY
FOR SOUTHWEST WY WHERE SNOW HAS GENERALLY ABATED AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY. OTHERWISE
SREF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL ADD
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE WARMING
700MB TEMPS YIELD A WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL TODAY...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z THURSDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35
MPH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
UTZ010-     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 161219 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
619 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT SNOW ACROSS SWRN WY IS CREATING WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG I-80 EAST OF EVANSTON. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT MID MORNING BEFORE INSOLATION THRU THE CLOUDS
HEATS ROAD SURFACES SUFFICIENTLY TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW. PRECIP
COULD CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN BUT SHOULD MELT AS IT FALLS. SO HAVE
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING FOR OUR WY ZONE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.


&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 161219 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
619 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT SNOW ACROSS SWRN WY IS CREATING WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG I-80 EAST OF EVANSTON. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT MID MORNING BEFORE INSOLATION THRU THE CLOUDS
HEATS ROAD SURFACES SUFFICIENTLY TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW. PRECIP
COULD CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN BUT SHOULD MELT AS IT FALLS. SO HAVE
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING FOR OUR WY ZONE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.


&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 161219 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
619 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT SNOW ACROSS SWRN WY IS CREATING WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG I-80 EAST OF EVANSTON. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT MID MORNING BEFORE INSOLATION THRU THE CLOUDS
HEATS ROAD SURFACES SUFFICIENTLY TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW. PRECIP
COULD CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN BUT SHOULD MELT AS IT FALLS. SO HAVE
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING FOR OUR WY ZONE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.


&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 161124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 161124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 161124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE COLD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
LAKE POWELL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SNOW ARE IN THIS MOIST FLOW AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SEWD.
HAVE KEPT THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ALTHO
ROADS HAVE BEEN JUST WET OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND
THIS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE THE CASE ONCE THE SUN IS UP. ALSO THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM TODAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING ABOVE MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY AFTN. HAVE ALLOWED THE
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NRN MTNS TO EXPIRE FOR THESE REASONS.

VALLEY TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS AND A
FEW SPOTS HAVE REACHED 28 F OR BELOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS TEMPS COULD STILL BRIEFLY TOUCH 28 IN A
FEW MORE LOCATIONS.

PRECIP WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEST TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND FRI AND REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT
THE HARD FREEZE THREAT TO THE COLDER CENTRAL AND SWRN VALLEYS AND
WILL ALLOW DAY CREW TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WARNING.

A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA ONCE THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. A WEAK WAVE IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NERN CWA SAT AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OUT
OF THIS WAVE ON SUN AND BRINGS A THREAT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
TO MORE OF THE CWA SUN.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE EC.
THEREFORE THE EXTRA COOLING AT H7 BY THE GFS WAS IGNORED AND WENT
WITH THE EC H7 FORECAST WHICH WAS STILL A DEGREE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ENDED UP LOWERING TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW.

THE RIDGE MOVES OVER UTAH MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A DEFORMATION AXIS
ACROSS UTAH. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THE GFS
HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO DECIDED TO PUT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY I INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SOME BUT NOT MUCH SINCE THE EC HAS MORE OF A
RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA.

BY THURSDAY THE EC MOVES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEW 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS CORE OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST
BUT THERE IS A LOBE OF ENERGY STRETCHING EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH PLACES THE ENTIRE CWA UNDER A INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH LOW END POPS FOR VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
NOT IN SYNC.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CIGS AROUND 500 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. AFTER 15Z CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL
BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS OCCASIONALLY BEING NEAR 5K
FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TODAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ010-
     517-518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ015-
     016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 160404
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1004 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST OF UTAH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
THIS EVENING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP. TROWAL FEATURE
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND SAID LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. A WEAK VORT MAX IS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...WHICH IS HELPING TO
SHIFT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INTO WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. THIS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE TURNING MORE EASTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
MAKING PRECIPITATION LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE WASATCH FRONT. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY...IF NOT COMPLETELY IN
SOME AREAS...AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FILL IN
MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING DID NOT
ACCUMULATE VERY EFFICIENTLY DUE TO WARM SURFACES...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
CHANGING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
SOUTH...THIS WOULD RESULT IN GREATER IMPACTS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UTAH...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT...IN ADDITION TO ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES.

ALTHOUGH 700MB WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...THE
AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY COLD. WITH MANY VALLEY TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY HOVERING IN THE 30S...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF COOLING SO WHILE A HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...MANY VALLEY ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
HIT CRITERIA.

MADE SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST...OTHERWISE THE PACKAGE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH AROUND 06Z...AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
AROUND 08-09Z...THEN RISE TO BETWEEN 5000-6000FT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN BY 05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ015-016.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ001>005-
     011>016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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