000
FXUS65 KSLC 182111
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
311 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
SOUTH REMAINS HOT AND DRY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE
BROAD CLOSED LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE PLACES THE LOW CENTER NEAR 120W 140N AT THIS
TIME WITH A THIN RIBBON OF LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS JUST EAST
OF THE COASTAL RANGE. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL NEVER REACH
UTAH AS THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK UP OVER THE RIDGE. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS OVER UTAH WILL REMAIN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
THE NORTH BEFORE THE DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES IN AND TURNS THE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT AROUND NOON AND SETTLE OVER CENTRAL UTAH
BY EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE MAINLY DRY DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL DROP TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN COOLING WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COUNTER. STILL LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS 4-5
DEGREES OVER THE NORTH TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND LOCAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL UTAH. COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN TOMORROW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE THAT DECISION TO
THE MID SHIFT WITH ACCESS TO A LATER MODEL RUN.
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE FIRE COMMUNITY ON THE
ALERT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. RED FLAG WARNINGS INTO
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE.
AS THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOT TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS INTO THE WATERS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS MAY
PERIODICALLY HIT AWW CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST 2300 UTC. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 1500-1700 UTC ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
THE APPROACH OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40
MPH FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH WILL DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CURED...MOST RECENT TO TURN CRITICAL WERE
ZONES 478 AND 492 BELOW 6500 FEET. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR
NORTHWESTERN UTAH TONIGHT THEN PUSH SOUTH/EAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT VERY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING.
ADDED RFW FOR ZONES 478 AND 492 BELOW 6500 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AS A RESULT...WITH THE OTHER CRITICAL ZONES REMAINING WITHIN
GOING RFW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND CREATING
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LESS WINDS...THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 7000 FEET FOR
UTZ488-489-493-494.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 9000 FEET FOR
UTZ496.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY BELOW 6500 FEET FOR
UTZ478-492.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 6000 FEET FOR
UTZ495.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ015-016.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ497-498.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION.......GRAHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 181525
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AS THE BROAD CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN PARAMOUNT.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST UTAH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THROUGH
THE WASATCH FRONT AROUND NOON AND SETTLE OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY
EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE MAINLY DRY DUE TO THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND LOCAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND ALTHOUGH WINDS AT 700MB ARE ONLY AROUND
30 KNOTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL TIGHTEN A BIT
AS A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW SWINGS THROUGH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE IN LINE
WITH NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
THE APPROACH OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL REALLY RAMP SOUTHERLY WINDS UP
TODAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 45 MPH FOR MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND COMBINED WITH
SINGLE DIGIT RH WILL DRIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE
FUELS ARE CURED. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH
TONIGHT THEN PUSH SOUTH/EAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL ADDRESS ANY NEED OF POSSIBLY EXTENDING IT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND CREATING MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LESS WINDS...THOUGH AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
EXTREMELY DRY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 7000 FEET FOR
UTZ488-489-493-494.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 9000 FEET FOR
UTZ496.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ015-016.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW 6000 FEET FOR
UTZ495.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ497-498.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER......MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 180846
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SOUTH
REMAINS WARM AND DRY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS A
BROAD CLOSED LOW NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACARS 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 50-85KT WESTERLY JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A 75-105KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAP...GOES...GPS SENSORS...AND
00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.10" AND
0.45" RANGE.
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...FIRE WEATHER IS BIGGEST THREAT. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTHERN ZONE AND WILL BE DRY DUE TO THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE INSTABILITY
PROBABILITIES AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL 4KM WRF-ARW.
INSTEAD OF ANY RAINFALL...ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND LOCAL GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. BECAUSE OF
THE DRY SOUTH WIND GUSTS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND LOWS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL UTAH. ALTHOUGH 700MB FLOW IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL
(30KTS)...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST UTAH
AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. FAVOR
RAP/EUROPEAN DEPICTION OF FURTHER SOUTH CYCLONE THAN GFS...WHICH
MEANS NORTHWEST UTAH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. ALSO HAS BEEN GUSTIER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE EXPECTED LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
BOTH THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND EUROPEAN 850-500MB SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY INDICATE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WITH THE NAEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY PRODUCT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH LOOK TO GRADUALLY REBOUND LATE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AT 700MB BETWEEN
GFS/EUROPEAN (CANADIAN WAS A COLDER OUTLIER).
PATTERN RELOADS NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW HEADING TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER WEST IN
THE GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE AUTHORITY FROM THE EAST. THIS LEADS TO LESS OF A THREAT OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH FINALLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES...AND HOTTER
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DISTRICT WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE STATE AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRY FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE
DISTRICT OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
7000 FEET FOR UTZ488-489-493-494.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ015-016.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
UTZ497-498.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 180355
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SOUTH
REMAINS WARM AND DRY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH
BASED CU WHICH DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UINTAS/WASATCH
PLATEAU PROVED TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING OR
PRECIPITATION...AND IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY LINGERING POPS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN UT WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER
CENTRAL UT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL COOL THE NORTH WHILE THE
SOUTH REMAINS VERY WARM AND DRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND STALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT A BIT WEAKER AND COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE AFTER 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEARLY DISTRICT-WIDE TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL
ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. IF ADDITIONAL ZONES BECOME CRITICAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEY WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
7000 FEET FOR UTZ488-489-493-494.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
UTZ497-498.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SEAMAN/KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172107
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
307 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...BROAD CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST. LEADING EDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INLAND AT THIS TIME. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO WEDNESDAY. VIRTUALLY
NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW ANY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE RAFT RIVER
MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH UINTAS WHERE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT BEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
TONGUE OF AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AROUND THE LOW. REMOVED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR WYOMING PER REQUEST FROM RIVERTON FIRE
WEATHER.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...EXPECT EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH BEFORE TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH. THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
REBUILDS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH LOOK TO GRADUALLY
REBOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
BASICALLY...MORE OF THE SAME...WITH A DRY AND VERY WARM AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z...THOUGH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RUNWAYS THROUGH 22Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
NEARLY DISTRICT-WIDE TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL
ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. IF ADDITIONAL ZONES BECOME CRITICAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEY WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED
FLAG WARNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
7000 FEET FOR UTZ488-489-493-494.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY BELOW
6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
UTZ497-498.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
AVIATION.......SCHOENING
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171540
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD CLOSED LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND. WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EVEN FORCE ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WATER
VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS VERY DRY AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION
AROUND THE LOW. ONLY CAVEAT WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE RAFT RIVER AND UINTA
MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS PACKAGE ADDRESSED THIS...BELOW 15
PERCENT...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE THEM. ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND LOCAL
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY CAUSING SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY GRAZE THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
WINDS ELEVATED...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
EFFECT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ489.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC..................YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...VERZELLA
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 170848
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
248 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD CLOSED LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A
50-65KT WESTERLY JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...A 75-95KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RAP...GOES...GPS SENSORS...AND 00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.10" AND 0.35" RANGE.
REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
NORTH. VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. HOWEVER WITH THE PASSING
DISTURBANCES AND DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RAFT RIVER MOUNTAINS...UINTA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
HAVE MENTIONED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE INSTABILITY
PROBABILITIES AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL 4KM WRF-ARW.
INSTEAD OF ANY RAINFALL...ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND LOCAL
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FIRE WEATHER IS
BIGGEST THREAT. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.
BOTH THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND EUROPEAN 850-500MB SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY INDICATE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA. THIS ALSO
LINES UP WITH THE NAEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY PRODUCT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH LOOK TO GRADUALLY REBOUND LATE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY AT 700MB BETWEEN
GFS/EUROPEAN (CANADIAN WAS A COLDER OUTLIER). PATTERN RELOADS NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW HEADING TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE FURTHER WEST ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE AUTHORITY. PERHAPS THIS LEADS TO A
BIT LESS SOUTHWEST WIND...A BIT MORE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. THEY SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT
TODAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEVERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY GRAZE
THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ELEVATED...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ489.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 170236
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
836 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MODEST MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
UTAH WAS ABLE TO GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEVER GOT GOING
THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS INCREASED A FEW DEGREES...
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH
ANOTHER POCKET OF WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEVADA. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING SOME
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER.
VERY LOW PWAT VALUES WILL WORK AGAINST EVEN MOUNTAIN DIURNAL
CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE PATCHY MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED COASTAL TROUGH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A
FAIRLY COOL SURFACE FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH MIDWEEK.
THIS FRONT...LIKELY MANY THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL GENERATE LITTLE
OF NO PRECIP WITH PLENTY OF WIND AND COOLER TEMPS. THESE COOLER
TEMPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO REMOVE SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE EASTERN
ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO A
SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE AROUND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WERE STEADILY WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH VALUES WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. VERY WINDY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH FOR
THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL COOLING
DOWN SOUTH. NO REAL THREAT FOR WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST WITH THIS
FRONT.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ489.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET
FOR UTZ496.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET
FOR UTZ495.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162147
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY FLAT CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CU HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE RAFT RIVER MOUNTAIN RANGE IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED
OUT THROUGH THE EVENING IN BOTH LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN UTAH HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY WIND SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS REMAINED OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD MIDWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE CAN BE
SEEN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AT THIS TIME...THE SALT LAKE
CITY AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 0.00 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...NOT EVEN
A TRACE...FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE EC
INDICATES ANY REAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
RUN...WHICH FALLS ON JUNE 26TH.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SLC
TERMINAL AS OF 21Z. THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE
RUNWAY...PRIMARILY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST 01Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLIES
RETURN BEFORE 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THIS FLOW
WILL WEAKEN A BIT MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER AS
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY. FURTHER NORTH THIS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH FOR THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ489.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET
FOR UTZ496.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET
FOR UTZ495.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/SEAMAN/SCHOENING
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 161555
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MOISTURE PLUME MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN UTAH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A DEPARTING MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH HAS HELPED
TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 0.50 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. THIS MATCHES THE NAM12 FORECAST FOR 15Z AS
WELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED MID- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST.
UPDATED THIS MORNINGS FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN UTAH
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. THE MOSTLY DRY FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/VERZELLA/SEAMAN
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 161000
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER UTAH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE PLUME
THAT SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR WEAK CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE APPEAR TO BE IN THE FORM OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. THE AIRMASS WILL TREND
A BIT DRIER TODAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED
TO BE IN THE 0.4-0.5 INCH RANGE...ENOUGH TO KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UPWARD A BIT TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND DURING
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO JUST GRAZE THE
AREA WHILE PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS A RESULT. ANOTHER SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR LATE
WEEK...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STORY AS THE CHANCE
OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIM OUT TO 240 HOURS ON THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN UTAH
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FIRE DISTRICT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. THE
MOSTLY DRY FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
CHENG/TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 160355
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL SPAWN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. A DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MAINTAIN SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER UTAH FOR EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE PLUME ARCING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON SPAWNED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BROUGHT A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH
THE LAST ORGANIZED AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR HANKSVILLE EAST INTO
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF /.45/ - /.60/ INCHES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WORKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL NOSE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REDUCING OR ENDING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION BY
TUESDAY.
THE DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NEW DRY COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST
UTAH WEDNESDAY...DRIVING TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AND
OFFER LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BOUNCE BACK ALL THAT FAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE WARMEST
NEAR 700MB AIR REMAINED PINNED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WILL TURN
AROUND A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 04-05Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH SPAWNED ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS GENERATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS AND SOME LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS. LOOKING AT A REPEAT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY STRETCHING NORTH
INTO THE UINTAS. A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE DISTRICTS WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
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