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000
FXUS65 KSLC 282220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A MEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS MAINTAINING
A VERY MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DAILY RECORD OF 66 AT KSLC
HAS ALREADY BEEN TIED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
FORECAST TO COOL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALSO BE
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF I-80 DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH OF THE IDAHO BORDER
BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
IN ALIGNMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER. HAVE REINTRODUCED SOME LOW TO MODEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST UTAH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE TROUGH COMING IN IS
MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL RIDGE POSITION ITS HARD TO GET OVERLY
EXCITED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THIS SAID IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A SUB TROPICAL
CONNECTION OF MOISTURE SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE POPS
THEN ORDINARILY WITH THE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS. THE BEST DYNAMICS
ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC HAS BARELY A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
AT THIS TIME SO KEPT FORECAST OF POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY IN MOST
AREAS.  GRADUAL DRYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE REDEVELOPS.


&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281633
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
933 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER. EXTENSIVE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND HAVE
UPDATED THE GOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BY THIS AFTERNOON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO THIN
CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS...BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES AROUND CEDAR CITY.

THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
VERY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN UT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF I-80. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
THE GFS HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS
OVERALL IDEA...WITH SOME VARIATION IN TIMING...AND THE 12Z GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS WAVERED FROM RUN TO
RUN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO
UT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THRU THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND SHOULD THIN OUT THRU THE DAY ALLOWING THE SUN TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

SUN PLUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS
SHOULD COMBINE TO SEND MAX TEMPS TO POSSIBLY THEIR WARMEST LEVELS
THIS WEEK. AT LEAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. MIXING IN
THE ERN VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE LESS AND INVERSIONS THERE MAY NOT
BREAK.

THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE PACNW. THIS WAVE SWINGS EWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES SAT THRU SUN
BUT DOES SEND A COLD FRONT INTO UT BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL UT BY SUN EVE
THE RETREATS NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON.

ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY STARTING SUN
AND LINGERING INTO MON WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUN AFTN/EVE. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE FAR N AND HAVE
INDICATED A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE LOGAN AREA BUT KEPT PRECIP AS
RAIN FARTHER S. DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN LIGHT
AMOUNTS OFF PAVEMENT SURFACES IF THAT. THE NRN WASATCH MTNS COULD
SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW BUT EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE SRN EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE NOT FAR SOUTH OF
PROVO WITH SRN UT REMAINING DRY AND MILD. THE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON MON AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS IN NORTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS THAN THE
GFS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF ADVANCING A
PACIFIC TROUGH EASTWARD. THE GFS TRAJECTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO
UTAH ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...SUGGESTING A MODICUM OF
PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS MOVE AN OPEN WAVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STATEWIDE.
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
RANGE...CONTINUING P-TYPE AS VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 14Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281134
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING INTO
UT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THRU THE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS ARE THICKEST OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND SHOULD THIN OUT THRU THE DAY ALLOWING THE SUN TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

SUN PLUS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS
SHOULD COMBINE TO SEND MAX TEMPS TO POSSIBLY THEIR WARMEST LEVELS
THIS WEEK. AT LEAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. MIXING IN
THE ERN VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE LESS AND INVERSIONS THERE MAY NOT
BREAK.

THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
THE PACNW. THIS WAVE SWINGS EWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES SAT THRU SUN
BUT DOES SEND A COLD FRONT INTO UT BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL UT BY SUN EVE
THE RETREATS NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON.

ALL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY STARTING SUN
AND LINGERING INTO MON WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUN AFTN/EVE. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE FAR N AND HAVE
INDICATED A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE LOGAN AREA BUT KEPT PRECIP AS
RAIN FARTHER S. DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN LIGHT
AMOUNTS OFF PAVEMENT SURFACES IF THAT. THE NRN WASATCH MTNS COULD
SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW BUT EXPECT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE SRN EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE NOT FAR SOUTH OF
PROVO WITH SRN UT REMAINING DRY AND MILD. THE PRECIP SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON MON AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS IN NORTHERN
UTAH...THOUGH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS THAN THE
GFS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF ADVANCING A
PACIFIC TROUGH EASTWARD. THE GFS TRAJECTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO
UTAH ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...SUGGESTING A MODICUM OF
PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS MOVE AN OPEN WAVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STATEWIDE.
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
RANGE...CONTINUING P-TYPE AS VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 14Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280448
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
948 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE STILL OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MEANWHILE...PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS UTAH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS ELEVATED.

UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH CLOSER TO UTAH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ALONG THE HIGH PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING INCREASED SOUTH WINDS TO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS WELL. THIS ENHANCED FLOW ALONG WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL AID MIXING...AND WITH H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
FORECAST AROUND 4C...AFTERNOON MAXES ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY ACROSS MANY AREAS.

SHALLOW COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MADE MINOR UPDATE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT MINS AT A FEW SPOTS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 14Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 12-13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 280448
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
948 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE STILL OVER NEVADA THIS
EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MEANWHILE...PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS UTAH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS ELEVATED.

UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH CLOSER TO UTAH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ALONG THE HIGH PEAKS. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BRING INCREASED SOUTH WINDS TO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS WELL. THIS ENHANCED FLOW ALONG WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL AID MIXING...AND WITH H7 TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
FORECAST AROUND 4C...AFTERNOON MAXES ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY ACROSS MANY AREAS.

SHALLOW COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MADE MINOR UPDATE TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT MINS AT A FEW SPOTS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...AT THE SLC TERMINAL...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 14Z...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY 12-13Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 272230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPILL OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY DESPITE A
MILD START. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW
RECORDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 700MB TEMPS NEAR 4C ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAIN WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT...AND STALLS
THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
OF I-80 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
GLOBALS. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER ECMWF
DOES HAVE A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE CARVE A LITTLE DEEPER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT MAY LIMIT SUCH A RESPONSE UNTIL
TUESDAY. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
SUCH.

INCONSISTENCIES BECOME MORE APPARENT THEREAFTER REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...OR LACK THEREOF. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN BUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION A TAD EACH RUN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL. AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN REMAINS. ECMWF SHIFTED AWAY FROM EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COMPLETELY IN THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUES THAT TREND IN THE LATEST 12Z
OPERATIONAL OUTPUT...OPENING THE FORMER CLOSED LOW AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DUE TO MORE AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGING.
SOME MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. OPTED TO SLOW AND
REDUCE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TUESDAY...AND REDUCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THESE INCONSISTENCIES AND SOME SUPPORT OF A
DRIER SOLUTION IN THE GEFS MEMBERS. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 272230
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
SPILL OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY DESPITE A
MILD START. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIN OUT
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A VERY
MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW
RECORDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN 700MB TEMPS NEAR 4C ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAIN WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UT...AND STALLS
THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
OF I-80 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOORS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
IS QUITE LOW GIVEN MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
GLOBALS. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER ECMWF
DOES HAVE A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE CARVE A LITTLE DEEPER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT MAY LIMIT SUCH A RESPONSE UNTIL
TUESDAY. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS
SUCH.

INCONSISTENCIES BECOME MORE APPARENT THEREAFTER REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...OR LACK THEREOF. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN BUT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLOW PROGRESSION A TAD EACH RUN
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL. AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN REMAINS. ECMWF SHIFTED AWAY FROM EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COMPLETELY IN THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUES THAT TREND IN THE LATEST 12Z
OPERATIONAL OUTPUT...OPENING THE FORMER CLOSED LOW AND LIFTING IT
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DUE TO MORE AMPLIFIED INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGING.
SOME MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. OPTED TO SLOW AND
REDUCE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TUESDAY...AND REDUCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THESE INCONSISTENCIES AND SOME SUPPORT OF A
DRIER SOLUTION IN THE GEFS MEMBERS. AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271658
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A VERY
MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SPILLING
OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING JUST A BIT
TODAY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAYS OBSERVED HIGHS...WITH A BIT OF WARMING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN AN INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPS. IF
BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS DEVELOP COULD SEE A SPIKE IN VALLEY TEMPS AS
WELL.

THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ITS
PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED
LARGELY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHERLY
FLOW MONDAY...AND A MOIST TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL TAP FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED WAY OFF ON THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WHILE OFFERING UP A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER FRONT FOR
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
THE 12Z EC ARRIVES...HOWEVER THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-
00Z WINDOW. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271658
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A VERY
MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SPILLING
OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING JUST A BIT
TODAY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAYS OBSERVED HIGHS...WITH A BIT OF WARMING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN AN INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPS. IF
BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS DEVELOP COULD SEE A SPIKE IN VALLEY TEMPS AS
WELL.

THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ITS
PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN ITS HANDLING OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING CONFINED
LARGELY TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...FOLLOWED BY A MILD SOUTHERLY
FLOW MONDAY...AND A MOIST TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL TAP FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED WAY OFF ON THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WHILE OFFERING UP A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER FRONT FOR
SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL
THE 12Z EC ARRIVES...HOWEVER THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OR VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 19Z-
00Z WINDOW. IF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DO OCCUR THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271202
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
502 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS STREAMING
THROUGH THE RIDGE IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN UT AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA AS THE DAY GOES ON.

THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH HAS KEPT ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TO KEEP THE NWRN AND W CENTRAL
VALLEYS FAIRLY WELL MIXED WITH CURRENT TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S IN
MANY AREAS. THE AIRMASS UNDER THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES C FROM YESTERDAY AND MANY AREAS WILL STAY
SUFFICIENTLY WELL MIXED FOR THIS TO BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE HINDRANCE WOULD BE IF HIGH CLOUDS GET THICK
ENOUGH TO BLOCK THE SUN AND I DO EXPECT THIS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS TODAY NEAR YESTERDAYS READINGS BUT HAVE
WARMED THE SOUTH SOMEWHAT.

EXPECT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E AND SWLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVER THE CWA
KEEPING INVERSIONS AT BAY.

MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
PACNW AND NRN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND MOSTLY DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE A
CLOSED LOW IN THE ERN PAC. THE EC KEEPS THIS FEATURE FARTHER WEST
AND DIGS THE COLD AIR DOWN THE COAST INITIALLY ON SAT WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE LOW A LITTLE CLOSER SENDING THE COLD AIR S INLAND THRU
THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT ON SAT WHILE
THE EC HOLDS IT TO OUR WEST. THE EC EVENTUALLY SENDS THE COLD AIR
INTO UT BUT NOT TIL SUN WHILE THE GFS IS ALREADY PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.

THIS RUN OF THE EC IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER. HOWEVER THE EC HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR
CATCHING CHANGES EARLY SO AM NOT WILLING TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT
IT. SO HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO UTAH BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ECMWF 700 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES C
COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THIS TIME. THIS SAID...BOTH MODELS RENDER
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EC SPREADING IT
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE THUS NUDGED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE EC SOLUTION IN BOTH TEMPERATURE AND EXTENT OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CONTINUING THE IDEA OF A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING A NOTCH TO 6 KFT.

FURTHER MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXTENDS INTO MIDWEEK REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WITH THE GFS PITCHING AN EJECTED
SHORTWAVE INTO UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS BEREFT OF SAID
WAVE...SOLELY SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW STALLING
WEST OF 130W...LEAVING THE STATE HIGH AND DRY. HAVE THUS PRIMARILY
REDUCED MIDWEEK POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE CATEGORIES...KEEPING
TREND OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN
19-22Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270447
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AS 00Z SOUNDING AT
KSLC SHOWED A WELL MIXED AIRMASS UP TO 750MB. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIXING TOMORROW WILL
COUNTERACT THE WARMING TREND IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UPDATED TO ADJUST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE CLOUDS...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 262139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS BLOWING
OFF PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH...MOST OF THE CWA IS SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT MANAGED TO REACH
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY SALT LAKE COUNTY NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS.
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN RESPONSE.

EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY MATCH TODAYS HIGHS. GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START...KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. REGARDLESS...THANKSGIVING WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LARGELY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...WITH  SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
UT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

WITH THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...A VERY
MILD AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ON THE TIMING OF A MOIST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SLOWER IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. AS SUCH HAVE
LARGELY REMOVED POPS FROM THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME...AND FOCUSED THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO TRENDED MORE
TOWARD A VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING AROUND 7 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-03Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 7 KTS OR SO THROUGH ABOUT
02Z.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 261714
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SIERRA/CASCADES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DAMPEN A BIT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261714
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COOLING TREND
TO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SIERRA/CASCADES IS MAINTAINING A DRY AND MILD AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DAMPEN A BIT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 20-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY)...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RESULTANT BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL KEEP COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER LATE SATURDAY. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SAGGING INTO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH COULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...A MOIST CONVERGENT ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS MORE CONVINCED THAT
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH. AS SUCH HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A
BIT IN THIS REGION.

HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES TOWARD UTAH. WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STATEWIDE AND TEMPERATURES HOVER WELL ABOVE
NORMALS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE SYSTEM SPLITTING
AS IT NEARS THE STATE. BOTH PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ONSET AND SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT PLOWING INTO THE NORTHERN REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. 06Z RUN OF GFS
MUCH CLOSER TO EC IN KEEPING WARM TEMPS THROUGH DURATION OF
PRECIP...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD SUGGEST A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE VALLEYS WITH RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
OVERALL INCONSISTENCY TO ALTER CURRENT SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPS TO
REFLECT THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 260438
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
938 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UTAH REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING...WITH MOIST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT...THESE HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS...AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TREND SHOULD POINT DOWNWARD AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER
AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPIRED/CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS
ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WINDS...LOWER POPS...AND MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MINS.


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY OPERATIONAL CONCERN AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TONIGHT. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07-09Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 260438
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
938 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UTAH REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING...WITH MOIST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. ALTHOUGH A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT...THESE HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS...AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TREND SHOULD POINT DOWNWARD AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER
AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPIRED/CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS
ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WINDS...LOWER POPS...AND MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT MINS.


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 6000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY OPERATIONAL CONCERN AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TONIGHT. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 07-09Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THEY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





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