Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KSLC 012322
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM JET
POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN CA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UT.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION COUPLED WITH STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CA THROUGH
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS AND INTO SOUTHERN UT. AS FORCING
INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN UT IN RESPONSE TO A VORT LOBE
EJECTING FROM THIS MEAN LOW POSITION...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SLOWLY SPREADING INTO CENTRAL UT AND
EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE ABSENCE
OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS RISING SNOW
LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A MORE
MILD AIRMASS SPREADS NORTHWARD. AS SUCH MAY SEE SNOW LEVELS RISE
ABOVE 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND PERHAPS ABOVE
6000 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY DEPENDING ON PRECIP INTENSITY.

WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING WHERE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE HEAVIEST. ITS POSSIBLE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UT /ZONE 20/ MAY REMAIN SNOW INTO THE
DAY MONDAY AND REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THESE POCKETS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE EXPANDED THE GOING WINTER WX
ADVISORY INTO THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL REGION ABOVE 5500 FEET...WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING TRAVEL ALONG THE HIGHER PASSES OF I-70.
ALSO EXPANDED THIS ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTHERN WASATCH AND WESTERN
UINTA RANGES WHERE SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF UTAH SOUTH OF I-80...HOWEVER ANY SNOWFALL WHICH OCCURS IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE RISING SNOW
LEVELS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO SWITCH OVER TO
RAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 6000 FEET...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR. AS THIS EJECTING LOBE QUICKLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LULL TO PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A COLDER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH
NORTHERN UT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS BOTH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UT AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ACROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR -15C DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 30S...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THURSDAY YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. BY
FRIDAY THE EC AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOW A WEAK BRUSH BY
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WYOMING BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT SHOW
THIS DISTURBANCE. BECAUSE THE OPERATIONAL IS WEAKER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST WITH H7
TEMPERATURES NEARLY UNCHANGED. OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A RIDGE
IN THE WEST SEEMS TO BE WHAT THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HEADING
TOWARDS IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 7K FT AGL UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.
CIGS COULD LOWER TO BELOW 7K FT AGL AT TIMES BEFORE 04Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 04Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012-013-016-
     020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM MST
     TUESDAY FOR UTZ008-009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011641
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND
INTO NORTHERN UT. A 110KT UPPER JET ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST CA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UT...WITH AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION...SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM JET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO CENTRAL UT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERN UT MONDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BACKING FLOW
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET...GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO HOLD COLD
AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE RISING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING SNOW
DENSITY GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UT
APPEAR OK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY UPGRADING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPORARY CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 7K FT AGL. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 7 K FT AGL
AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011641
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND
INTO NORTHERN UT. A 110KT UPPER JET ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST CA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UT...WITH AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION...SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM JET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO CENTRAL UT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERN UT MONDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BACKING FLOW
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET...GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO HOLD COLD
AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE RISING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING SNOW
DENSITY GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UT
APPEAR OK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY UPGRADING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPORARY CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 7K FT AGL. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 7 K FT AGL
AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011641
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND
INTO NORTHERN UT. A 110KT UPPER JET ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST CA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UT...WITH AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION...SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM JET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO CENTRAL UT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERN UT MONDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BACKING FLOW
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET...GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO HOLD COLD
AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE RISING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING SNOW
DENSITY GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UT
APPEAR OK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY UPGRADING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPORARY CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 7K FT AGL. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 7 K FT AGL
AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011641
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND
INTO NORTHERN UT. A 110KT UPPER JET ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST CA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UT...WITH AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION...SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM JET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO CENTRAL UT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERN UT MONDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BACKING FLOW
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET...GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO HOLD COLD
AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE RISING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING SNOW
DENSITY GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UT
APPEAR OK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY UPGRADING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPORARY CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 7K FT AGL. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 7 K FT AGL
AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
556 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...AN UPPER TROF LAYS NE-SW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING SWWD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND OFF INTO THE PAC.

A STRENGTHENING JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS TROF HAS BEEN
GENERATING INCREASING LIFT ACROSS AZ WITH PRECIP FILLING IN UNDER
IT. THIS JET TAKES AIM AT SRN UT THRU THE DAY AS THE SRN END OF
THE WEST COAST TROF PIVOTS EWD BACKING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF TO MORE SLY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN UT BY LATE TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT REACHING ALL BUT FAR NWRN UT
BY MON MORNING. THE CA LOW THEN EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NV AND INTO WRN
UT DURING THE DAY MON KEEPING PRECIP WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.

THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5500 WEST TO 6500 FT EAST AND
REMAINING AT ABOUT THIS LEVEL INTO EARLY MON. THIS IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PUT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER SWRN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTN AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL UT. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW
ABOVE MOST OF THE ERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE PRICE AREA.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO MOST WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE MON
AS THE REMAINS OF THE CA UPPER TROF ARRIVES WITH A REINFORCING
COLD TROF FROM THE NORTH CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE KEEPING SNOW
GOING IN THE NWRN VALLEYS AND MOST MTNS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS THRU TUE
AFTN AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN MTNS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUE. ISSUED NEW ADVISORIES FOR SWRN VALLEYS AND
S-CENTRAL UT ABV 5500 FT THRU MON EVE AND EXTENDED THE PRICE AREA
THROUGH THE SAME TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VALLEY ADVISORIES MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND W-CENTRAL UT FOR MON
AFTN INTO TUE.

THINK THAT OTHER ERN VALLEYS SHOULD STAY RAIN UNTIL THE FLOW VEERS
TO WLY AND THEN PRECIP WOULD BECOME SHOWERY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UINTA BASIN COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON HOWEVER
AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TOO.

PRECIP TURNS SHOWERY TUE AFTN AS THE FINAL COLD TROF SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT TO CURB THE
WARMING TREND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH DAY 7...AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED THE SAME THING. THEREFORE...AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID CURB THE
WARMING TREND A BIT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BUT WILL
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL THRU ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
556 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...AN UPPER TROF LAYS NE-SW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING SWWD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND OFF INTO THE PAC.

A STRENGTHENING JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS TROF HAS BEEN
GENERATING INCREASING LIFT ACROSS AZ WITH PRECIP FILLING IN UNDER
IT. THIS JET TAKES AIM AT SRN UT THRU THE DAY AS THE SRN END OF
THE WEST COAST TROF PIVOTS EWD BACKING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF TO MORE SLY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN UT BY LATE TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT REACHING ALL BUT FAR NWRN UT
BY MON MORNING. THE CA LOW THEN EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NV AND INTO WRN
UT DURING THE DAY MON KEEPING PRECIP WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.

THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5500 WEST TO 6500 FT EAST AND
REMAINING AT ABOUT THIS LEVEL INTO EARLY MON. THIS IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PUT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER SWRN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTN AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL UT. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW
ABOVE MOST OF THE ERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE PRICE AREA.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO MOST WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE MON
AS THE REMAINS OF THE CA UPPER TROF ARRIVES WITH A REINFORCING
COLD TROF FROM THE NORTH CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE KEEPING SNOW
GOING IN THE NWRN VALLEYS AND MOST MTNS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS THRU TUE
AFTN AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN MTNS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUE. ISSUED NEW ADVISORIES FOR SWRN VALLEYS AND
S-CENTRAL UT ABV 5500 FT THRU MON EVE AND EXTENDED THE PRICE AREA
THROUGH THE SAME TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VALLEY ADVISORIES MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND W-CENTRAL UT FOR MON
AFTN INTO TUE.

THINK THAT OTHER ERN VALLEYS SHOULD STAY RAIN UNTIL THE FLOW VEERS
TO WLY AND THEN PRECIP WOULD BECOME SHOWERY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UINTA BASIN COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON HOWEVER
AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TOO.

PRECIP TURNS SHOWERY TUE AFTN AS THE FINAL COLD TROF SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT TO CURB THE
WARMING TREND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH DAY 7...AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED THE SAME THING. THEREFORE...AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID CURB THE
WARMING TREND A BIT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BUT WILL
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL THRU ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 011256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
556 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...AN UPPER TROF LAYS NE-SW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING SWWD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND OFF INTO THE PAC.

A STRENGTHENING JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS TROF HAS BEEN
GENERATING INCREASING LIFT ACROSS AZ WITH PRECIP FILLING IN UNDER
IT. THIS JET TAKES AIM AT SRN UT THRU THE DAY AS THE SRN END OF
THE WEST COAST TROF PIVOTS EWD BACKING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF TO MORE SLY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN UT BY LATE TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT REACHING ALL BUT FAR NWRN UT
BY MON MORNING. THE CA LOW THEN EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NV AND INTO WRN
UT DURING THE DAY MON KEEPING PRECIP WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.

THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5500 WEST TO 6500 FT EAST AND
REMAINING AT ABOUT THIS LEVEL INTO EARLY MON. THIS IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PUT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER SWRN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTN AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL UT. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW
ABOVE MOST OF THE ERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE PRICE AREA.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO MOST WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE MON
AS THE REMAINS OF THE CA UPPER TROF ARRIVES WITH A REINFORCING
COLD TROF FROM THE NORTH CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE KEEPING SNOW
GOING IN THE NWRN VALLEYS AND MOST MTNS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS THRU TUE
AFTN AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN MTNS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUE. ISSUED NEW ADVISORIES FOR SWRN VALLEYS AND
S-CENTRAL UT ABV 5500 FT THRU MON EVE AND EXTENDED THE PRICE AREA
THROUGH THE SAME TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VALLEY ADVISORIES MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND W-CENTRAL UT FOR MON
AFTN INTO TUE.

THINK THAT OTHER ERN VALLEYS SHOULD STAY RAIN UNTIL THE FLOW VEERS
TO WLY AND THEN PRECIP WOULD BECOME SHOWERY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UINTA BASIN COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON HOWEVER
AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TOO.

PRECIP TURNS SHOWERY TUE AFTN AS THE FINAL COLD TROF SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT TO CURB THE
WARMING TREND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH DAY 7...AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED THE SAME THING. THEREFORE...AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID CURB THE
WARMING TREND A BIT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BUT WILL
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL THRU ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 011256
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
556 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z WED)...AN UPPER TROF LAYS NE-SW ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING SWWD THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST AND OFF INTO THE PAC.

A STRENGTHENING JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS TROF HAS BEEN
GENERATING INCREASING LIFT ACROSS AZ WITH PRECIP FILLING IN UNDER
IT. THIS JET TAKES AIM AT SRN UT THRU THE DAY AS THE SRN END OF
THE WEST COAST TROF PIVOTS EWD BACKING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF TO MORE SLY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN UT BY LATE TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT REACHING ALL BUT FAR NWRN UT
BY MON MORNING. THE CA LOW THEN EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NV AND INTO WRN
UT DURING THE DAY MON KEEPING PRECIP WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.

THE AIRMASS WARMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5500 WEST TO 6500 FT EAST AND
REMAINING AT ABOUT THIS LEVEL INTO EARLY MON. THIS IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PUT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER SWRN VALLEYS BY THIS AFTN AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL UT. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW
ABOVE MOST OF THE ERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE PRICE AREA.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO MOST WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE MON
AS THE REMAINS OF THE CA UPPER TROF ARRIVES WITH A REINFORCING
COLD TROF FROM THE NORTH CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE KEEPING SNOW
GOING IN THE NWRN VALLEYS AND MOST MTNS.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE MTNS THRU TUE
AFTN AND THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NRN MTNS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUE. ISSUED NEW ADVISORIES FOR SWRN VALLEYS AND
S-CENTRAL UT ABV 5500 FT THRU MON EVE AND EXTENDED THE PRICE AREA
THROUGH THE SAME TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VALLEY ADVISORIES MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND W-CENTRAL UT FOR MON
AFTN INTO TUE.

THINK THAT OTHER ERN VALLEYS SHOULD STAY RAIN UNTIL THE FLOW VEERS
TO WLY AND THEN PRECIP WOULD BECOME SHOWERY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
UINTA BASIN COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON HOWEVER
AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TOO.

PRECIP TURNS SHOWERY TUE AFTN AS THE FINAL COLD TROF SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...THE LAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT TO CURB THE
WARMING TREND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED OVER UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH DAY 7...AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS
INDICATED THE SAME THING. THEREFORE...AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE THE GFS
SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DID CURB THE
WARMING TREND A BIT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BUT WILL
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL THRU ABOUT 18-19Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BE OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WYOMING TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
TO NOTE. FIRST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY HAD A BURST OF PRECIPITATION EARLIER AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR STILL INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE EXISTS BELOW THE RADAR COVERAGE...BUT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT OF IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS AREA WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS AREA IS ALREADY COVERED WITH EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THE WEST CENTRAL UTAH ZONE IS NOT AND WILL
LEAVE THAT ZONE OUT AS MODELS DO INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REGARDING THE EASTERLIES...MODELS SHOW GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT AT
700MB. CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PATTERN THEN AMPLIFIES TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. INCREASED SOUTHERLIES AND
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH ON
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA.

UPDATES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS AND ZONES BUT MOSTLY MINOR.
HOWEVER...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL AS SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AND MOST OF THAT ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 6KFT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOSTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ010-012-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 010454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WYOMING TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
TO NOTE. FIRST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY HAD A BURST OF PRECIPITATION EARLIER AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR STILL INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE EXISTS BELOW THE RADAR COVERAGE...BUT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT OF IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS AREA WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS AREA IS ALREADY COVERED WITH EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THE WEST CENTRAL UTAH ZONE IS NOT AND WILL
LEAVE THAT ZONE OUT AS MODELS DO INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REGARDING THE EASTERLIES...MODELS SHOW GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT AT
700MB. CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PATTERN THEN AMPLIFIES TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. INCREASED SOUTHERLIES AND
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH ON
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA.

UPDATES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS AND ZONES BUT MOSTLY MINOR.
HOWEVER...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL AS SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AND MOST OF THAT ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 6KFT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOSTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ010-012-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WYOMING TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
TO NOTE. FIRST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY HAD A BURST OF PRECIPITATION EARLIER AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR STILL INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE EXISTS BELOW THE RADAR COVERAGE...BUT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT OF IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS AREA WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS AREA IS ALREADY COVERED WITH EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THE WEST CENTRAL UTAH ZONE IS NOT AND WILL
LEAVE THAT ZONE OUT AS MODELS DO INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REGARDING THE EASTERLIES...MODELS SHOW GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT AT
700MB. CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PATTERN THEN AMPLIFIES TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. INCREASED SOUTHERLIES AND
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH ON
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA.

UPDATES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS AND ZONES BUT MOSTLY MINOR.
HOWEVER...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL AS SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AND MOST OF THAT ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 6KFT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOSTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ010-012-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 010454
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WYOMING TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
TO NOTE. FIRST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY HAD A BURST OF PRECIPITATION EARLIER AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR STILL INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE. A DEFORMATION ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE EXISTS BELOW THE RADAR COVERAGE...BUT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE
AREA OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS EVIDENT OF IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS AREA WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS AREA IS ALREADY COVERED WITH EXISTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...THE WEST CENTRAL UTAH ZONE IS NOT AND WILL
LEAVE THAT ZONE OUT AS MODELS DO INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REGARDING THE EASTERLIES...MODELS SHOW GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT AT
700MB. CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS A RESULT. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PATTERN THEN AMPLIFIES TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. INCREASED SOUTHERLIES AND
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH ON
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA.

UPDATES MADE TO SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS AND ZONES BUT MOSTLY MINOR.
HOWEVER...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN RAFAEL
SWELL AS SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AND MOST OF THAT ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 6KFT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOSTLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ010-012-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282250
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
MAIN TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING THESE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE FARTHER
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT. THE MAIN PUNCH WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WASATCH PLATEAU...AND INTO CASTLE COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED ZONE 10 TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UTAH FROM ABOUT SLC TO ELY
NEVADA BUT HARD TO FIND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS AREA.

SOME CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT DUE TO LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH COMBINING WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WYOMING. THIS EVENT THOUGH SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE WINDS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 IN THE FAVORED
CANYONS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A HIATUS IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RELOADS WITH A SUB TROPICAL TAP WHICH BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TO NEAR 5500-6500 FEET WHICH
MEANS RAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUT COULD SEE ALL SNOW OR A MIXTURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS EXCLUDING ST GEORGE WHERE RAIN WILL
OCCUR. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SINCE DID NOT WANT TO HAVE CONFUSION BETWEEN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT EVER REACH NORTHERN UTAH BUT
THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ACT ON FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DROPPING ONE LAST SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SAID...ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH DISTURBANCE...ALSO
INDICATING A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK DECENT IN THE MORNING...BUT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES EAST.  ALL CONSIDERED...LIKELY POPS IN
TERRAIN AREAS LOOK GOOD...WITH CHANCE WORDING SUFFICING ELSEWHERE.
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIONS.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EVENING...BUT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND LOSS OF
ANY INSTABILITY...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT.  A FEW
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AGAIN...VERY LIGHT IN NATURE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS GREAT
BASIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET CAN NOW BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.  THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN MVFR
VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING.  STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.  THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ010-012-013-
     517-518.


WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
SHORT TERM...STRUTHWOLF
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 282250
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
MAIN TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING THESE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE FARTHER
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TONIGHT. THE MAIN PUNCH WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WASATCH PLATEAU...AND INTO CASTLE COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED ZONE 10 TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UTAH FROM ABOUT SLC TO ELY
NEVADA BUT HARD TO FIND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS AREA.

SOME CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT DUE TO LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH COMBINING WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WYOMING. THIS EVENT THOUGH SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE WINDS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 IN THE FAVORED
CANYONS.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A HIATUS IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RELOADS WITH A SUB TROPICAL TAP WHICH BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TO NEAR 5500-6500 FEET WHICH
MEANS RAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUT COULD SEE ALL SNOW OR A MIXTURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS EXCLUDING ST GEORGE WHERE RAIN WILL
OCCUR. HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SINCE DID NOT WANT TO HAVE CONFUSION BETWEEN WHAT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WHAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT EVER REACH NORTHERN UTAH BUT
THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO ACT ON FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH DROPPING ONE LAST SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SAID...ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH DISTURBANCE...ALSO
INDICATING A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK DECENT IN THE MORNING...BUT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES EAST.  ALL CONSIDERED...LIKELY POPS IN
TERRAIN AREAS LOOK GOOD...WITH CHANCE WORDING SUFFICING ELSEWHERE.
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIONS.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EVENING...BUT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND LOSS OF
ANY INSTABILITY...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT.  A FEW
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AGAIN...VERY LIGHT IN NATURE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS GREAT
BASIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET CAN NOW BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.  THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN MVFR
VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING.  STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z.  THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ010-012-013-
     517-518.


WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
SHORT TERM...STRUTHWOLF
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA PROMPTED AN
ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 1PM TODAY AS ROADS
BECAME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. AT KANAB THE TEMPERATURE IS 36
WHICH IS UP 6 DEGREES SINCE 6AM. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO WARMING AND PRECIP BECOMING
SHOWERY...SO EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP IS STILL SNOW THIS MORNING IT
IS NOT WIDESPREAD.

FARTHER NORTH THE POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CASTLE COUNTRY AS GOOD 700MB
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. GFS AND NAM
SHOWING FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 OF AN INCH THROUGH 00Z SUN IN THIS AREA.
WITH PRECIP ABOUT TO BREAK OUT IN THIS AREA SOON HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS SOME AT PRICE AND EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA NOW AND OTHER THAN
THE GFS ALL OTHER MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HOLDING OFF WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AS JET REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING DISSIPATES SOUTH OF UTAH COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT A CEILING BELOW 7000 FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LOWERING BY 03Z. MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA PROMPTED AN
ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 1PM TODAY AS ROADS
BECAME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. AT KANAB THE TEMPERATURE IS 36
WHICH IS UP 6 DEGREES SINCE 6AM. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO WARMING AND PRECIP BECOMING
SHOWERY...SO EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP IS STILL SNOW THIS MORNING IT
IS NOT WIDESPREAD.

FARTHER NORTH THE POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CASTLE COUNTRY AS GOOD 700MB
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. GFS AND NAM
SHOWING FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 OF AN INCH THROUGH 00Z SUN IN THIS AREA.
WITH PRECIP ABOUT TO BREAK OUT IN THIS AREA SOON HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS SOME AT PRICE AND EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA NOW AND OTHER THAN
THE GFS ALL OTHER MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HOLDING OFF WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AS JET REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING DISSIPATES SOUTH OF UTAH COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT A CEILING BELOW 7000 FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LOWERING BY 03Z. MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA PROMPTED AN
ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 1PM TODAY AS ROADS
BECAME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. AT KANAB THE TEMPERATURE IS 36
WHICH IS UP 6 DEGREES SINCE 6AM. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO WARMING AND PRECIP BECOMING
SHOWERY...SO EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP IS STILL SNOW THIS MORNING IT
IS NOT WIDESPREAD.

FARTHER NORTH THE POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CASTLE COUNTRY AS GOOD 700MB
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. GFS AND NAM
SHOWING FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 OF AN INCH THROUGH 00Z SUN IN THIS AREA.
WITH PRECIP ABOUT TO BREAK OUT IN THIS AREA SOON HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS SOME AT PRICE AND EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA NOW AND OTHER THAN
THE GFS ALL OTHER MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HOLDING OFF WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AS JET REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING DISSIPATES SOUTH OF UTAH COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT A CEILING BELOW 7000 FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LOWERING BY 03Z. MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA PROMPTED AN
ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 1PM TODAY AS ROADS
BECAME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. AT KANAB THE TEMPERATURE IS 36
WHICH IS UP 6 DEGREES SINCE 6AM. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO WARMING AND PRECIP BECOMING
SHOWERY...SO EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP IS STILL SNOW THIS MORNING IT
IS NOT WIDESPREAD.

FARTHER NORTH THE POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CASTLE COUNTRY AS GOOD 700MB
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. GFS AND NAM
SHOWING FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 OF AN INCH THROUGH 00Z SUN IN THIS AREA.
WITH PRECIP ABOUT TO BREAK OUT IN THIS AREA SOON HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS SOME AT PRICE AND EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA NOW AND OTHER THAN
THE GFS ALL OTHER MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HOLDING OFF WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AS JET REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING DISSIPATES SOUTH OF UTAH COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT A CEILING BELOW 7000 FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LOWERING BY 03Z. MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281253
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
553 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN IS LIFTING THRU SRN
UT AT THIS TIME BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BAND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY AND ENDS UP AS A DEFORMATION
FROM W-CENTRAL TO NERN UT THIS EVE.

HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE PRECIP WILL BECOME TOO SHOWERY AND
DISORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING TO KEEP A THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW GOING TODAY AND THE AIRMASS WARMS UP AS WELL SO
MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE SRN UT VALLEY ZONE THIS
MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

FARTHER NORTH...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AND THE ERN BASINS ALTHO
HERE TOO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS AND
IMPACT. ALSO WARMING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT IN ERN UT TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-70 ACROSS THE SWELL.

MODELS INDICATE PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE LIMITED TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND TAPERS OFF ACROSS SRN UT.
THIS SHOULD BE SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPACT THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM ABOUT SALT LAKE SOUTH TO DELTA AND
ACROSS THE EAST IN THE UINTA BASIN AND NEAR PRICE.

MODEST CANYON WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS
MORNING AND COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ONLY
REACH MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS AT BEST. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT FROM SALT LAKE NORTH TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS SUN AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
BECOMES SPOTTY AND LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA BECOMES
MORE N-S ORIENTED AND STARTS TO SEND A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
SRN UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BECOMES A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
SUN NIGHT THRU MON INTO THE CWA BUT IS ALSO FAIRLY WARM SO ANY
SNOW IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE WEST AND 7500 FEET OR HIGHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALSO
WARRANT EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS.

QUITE A BIT OF WATER IS FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RUNOFF IN SERN
UT.

THIS TROF STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE MON AND PRECIP BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE FIRST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS IT PASSES THROUGH...MODELS
INDICATE BEST PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OVER ARIZONA.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE FIRST EXITING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EC/GFS BOTH TRENDING
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT SPLITTING SHARPLY AS IT DIVES
SOUTH...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION IMPACTING THE CWA. IT DOES
STILL LOOK TO BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -
14C TO -16C. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED VERY GOOD FGEN ALONG THE FRONT
PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRECIP BEING MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A BIT.

EC IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT...BUT
BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED BRING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR PERIODS IN
RAIN AND SNOW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281253
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
553 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN IS LIFTING THRU SRN
UT AT THIS TIME BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BAND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY AND ENDS UP AS A DEFORMATION
FROM W-CENTRAL TO NERN UT THIS EVE.

HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE PRECIP WILL BECOME TOO SHOWERY AND
DISORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING TO KEEP A THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW GOING TODAY AND THE AIRMASS WARMS UP AS WELL SO
MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE SRN UT VALLEY ZONE THIS
MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

FARTHER NORTH...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AND THE ERN BASINS ALTHO
HERE TOO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS AND
IMPACT. ALSO WARMING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT IN ERN UT TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-70 ACROSS THE SWELL.

MODELS INDICATE PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE LIMITED TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND TAPERS OFF ACROSS SRN UT.
THIS SHOULD BE SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPACT THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM ABOUT SALT LAKE SOUTH TO DELTA AND
ACROSS THE EAST IN THE UINTA BASIN AND NEAR PRICE.

MODEST CANYON WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS
MORNING AND COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ONLY
REACH MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS AT BEST. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT FROM SALT LAKE NORTH TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS SUN AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
BECOMES SPOTTY AND LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA BECOMES
MORE N-S ORIENTED AND STARTS TO SEND A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
SRN UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BECOMES A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
SUN NIGHT THRU MON INTO THE CWA BUT IS ALSO FAIRLY WARM SO ANY
SNOW IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE WEST AND 7500 FEET OR HIGHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALSO
WARRANT EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS.

QUITE A BIT OF WATER IS FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RUNOFF IN SERN
UT.

THIS TROF STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE MON AND PRECIP BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE FIRST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS IT PASSES THROUGH...MODELS
INDICATE BEST PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OVER ARIZONA.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE FIRST EXITING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EC/GFS BOTH TRENDING
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT SPLITTING SHARPLY AS IT DIVES
SOUTH...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION IMPACTING THE CWA. IT DOES
STILL LOOK TO BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -
14C TO -16C. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED VERY GOOD FGEN ALONG THE FRONT
PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRECIP BEING MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A BIT.

EC IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT...BUT
BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED BRING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR PERIODS IN
RAIN AND SNOW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 281253
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
553 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN IS LIFTING THRU SRN
UT AT THIS TIME BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BAND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY AND ENDS UP AS A DEFORMATION
FROM W-CENTRAL TO NERN UT THIS EVE.

HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE PRECIP WILL BECOME TOO SHOWERY AND
DISORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING TO KEEP A THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW GOING TODAY AND THE AIRMASS WARMS UP AS WELL SO
MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE SRN UT VALLEY ZONE THIS
MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

FARTHER NORTH...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AND THE ERN BASINS ALTHO
HERE TOO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS AND
IMPACT. ALSO WARMING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT IN ERN UT TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-70 ACROSS THE SWELL.

MODELS INDICATE PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE LIMITED TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND TAPERS OFF ACROSS SRN UT.
THIS SHOULD BE SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPACT THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM ABOUT SALT LAKE SOUTH TO DELTA AND
ACROSS THE EAST IN THE UINTA BASIN AND NEAR PRICE.

MODEST CANYON WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS
MORNING AND COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ONLY
REACH MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS AT BEST. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT FROM SALT LAKE NORTH TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS SUN AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
BECOMES SPOTTY AND LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA BECOMES
MORE N-S ORIENTED AND STARTS TO SEND A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
SRN UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BECOMES A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
SUN NIGHT THRU MON INTO THE CWA BUT IS ALSO FAIRLY WARM SO ANY
SNOW IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE WEST AND 7500 FEET OR HIGHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALSO
WARRANT EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS.

QUITE A BIT OF WATER IS FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RUNOFF IN SERN
UT.

THIS TROF STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE MON AND PRECIP BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE FIRST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS IT PASSES THROUGH...MODELS
INDICATE BEST PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OVER ARIZONA.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE FIRST EXITING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EC/GFS BOTH TRENDING
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT SPLITTING SHARPLY AS IT DIVES
SOUTH...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION IMPACTING THE CWA. IT DOES
STILL LOOK TO BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -
14C TO -16C. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED VERY GOOD FGEN ALONG THE FRONT
PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRECIP BEING MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A BIT.

EC IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT...BUT
BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED BRING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR PERIODS IN
RAIN AND SNOW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 281253
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
553 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN IS LIFTING THRU SRN
UT AT THIS TIME BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BAND
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY AND ENDS UP AS A DEFORMATION
FROM W-CENTRAL TO NERN UT THIS EVE.

HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE PRECIP WILL BECOME TOO SHOWERY AND
DISORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING TO KEEP A THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD SNOW GOING TODAY AND THE AIRMASS WARMS UP AS WELL SO
MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE SRN UT VALLEY ZONE THIS
MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

FARTHER NORTH...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL MTNS AND THE ERN BASINS ALTHO
HERE TOO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS AND
IMPACT. ALSO WARMING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT IN ERN UT TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF I-70 ACROSS THE SWELL.

MODELS INDICATE PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE LIMITED TO
THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND TAPERS OFF ACROSS SRN UT.
THIS SHOULD BE SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND COULD BRING SOME
IMPACT THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM ABOUT SALT LAKE SOUTH TO DELTA AND
ACROSS THE EAST IN THE UINTA BASIN AND NEAR PRICE.

MODEST CANYON WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THIS
MORNING AND COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ONLY
REACH MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS AT BEST. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP TONIGHT FROM SALT LAKE NORTH TONIGHT.

THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENS SUN AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP
BECOMES SPOTTY AND LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA BECOMES
MORE N-S ORIENTED AND STARTS TO SEND A PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
SRN UT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BECOMES A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
SUN NIGHT THRU MON INTO THE CWA BUT IS ALSO FAIRLY WARM SO ANY
SNOW IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE WEST AND 7500 FEET OR HIGHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALSO
WARRANT EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE MTNS.

QUITE A BIT OF WATER IS FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RUNOFF IN SERN
UT.

THIS TROF STARTS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE MON AND PRECIP BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE FIRST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS IT PASSES THROUGH...MODELS
INDICATE BEST PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OVER ARIZONA.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE FIRST EXITING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EC/GFS BOTH TRENDING
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT SPLITTING SHARPLY AS IT DIVES
SOUTH...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION IMPACTING THE CWA. IT DOES
STILL LOOK TO BRING A GOOD COLD FRONT WITH 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -
14C TO -16C. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED VERY GOOD FGEN ALONG THE FRONT
PRODUCING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRECIP BEING MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED SO HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A BIT.

EC IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT...BUT
BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED BRING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR PERIODS IN
RAIN AND SNOW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280314
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
814 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
OREGON...WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
DRY SLOT OVER NEVADA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
NORTHWESTERLY 110-140KT JET FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO LAS
VEGAS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.10-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.35" MOST VALLEYS.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABATING QUITE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ACROSS THE SOUTH...SNOW LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSES IN. FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE AS A WAVE PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH BY MORNING. THIS AIDS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAP/HRRR-
3KM/NAM/GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
LOCAL WRF-ARW BASED ON EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...BUT LEANED AGAINST
THESE IN FAVOR OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE.

GOING HEADLINES FIT JUST FINE FOR THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS POTENTIALLY IN AND AROUND CEDAR CITY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH QPF NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY THERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE
THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT EASTERLIES TO DEVELOP...BUT
LIKELY NOT TOO STRONGLY AS 700MB FLOW IS STILL RATHER LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW HOWEVER SUPPORTS EARLIER PRECIPITATION ONSET
ACROSS CASTLE COUNTRY AND A BIT HIGHER QPF...TRENDED IN THIS
DIRECTION IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED FINE...JUST UPDATED THE CURVE WITH OBSERVATIONS
AND LATE EVENING LAMP GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER
UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD
SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLC TERMINAL IS WANING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AT
TIMES...WITH A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/SOLUM
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 280314
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
814 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
OREGON...WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
DRY SLOT OVER NEVADA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
NORTHWESTERLY 110-140KT JET FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO LAS
VEGAS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
RANGES BETWEEN 0.10-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.35" MOST VALLEYS.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABATING QUITE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ACROSS THE SOUTH...SNOW LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSES IN. FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE AS A WAVE PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH BY MORNING. THIS AIDS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

RAISED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAP/HRRR-
3KM/NAM/GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
LOCAL WRF-ARW BASED ON EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...BUT LEANED AGAINST
THESE IN FAVOR OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE.

GOING HEADLINES FIT JUST FINE FOR THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS POTENTIALLY IN AND AROUND CEDAR CITY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH QPF NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY THERE EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE
THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT EASTERLIES TO DEVELOP...BUT
LIKELY NOT TOO STRONGLY AS 700MB FLOW IS STILL RATHER LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW HOWEVER SUPPORTS EARLIER PRECIPITATION ONSET
ACROSS CASTLE COUNTRY AND A BIT HIGHER QPF...TRENDED IN THIS
DIRECTION IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED FINE...JUST UPDATED THE CURVE WITH OBSERVATIONS
AND LATE EVENING LAMP GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER
UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD
SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SLC TERMINAL IS WANING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AT
TIMES...WITH A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-
     517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/SOLUM
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS NEAR THESE SHOWERS MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 7000FT AGL...OTHERWISE THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND
9000-10000 FEET AGL OR CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 272350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS NEAR THESE SHOWERS MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 7000FT AGL...OTHERWISE THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND
9000-10000 FEET AGL OR CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS NEAR THESE SHOWERS MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 7000FT AGL...OTHERWISE THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND
9000-10000 FEET AGL OR CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 272350
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLIDING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PUMPING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT INTO UTAH THIS EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...AIRMASS OVER UTAH RETAINING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WITH A NEARLY 20C DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 500 AND 700MB...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT AND BECOME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION IN THE
PROCESS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPLEX EVOLUTION INVOLVING SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES AND FORCING
MECHANISMS AFFECTING DIFFERENT PARTS OF MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.

FIRST...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONVERGE INTO WEAKER FLOW OVER UTAH TONIGHT AND EXPECTED
TO FIRE UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS
THEN SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS UTAH
TOMORROW...SPREADING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH TO AROUND THE
I-80 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARDS A DEFORMATION AXIS...MORE PROMINENT IN THE
GFS/NAM THAN IN THE EC...EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH OUT...IS
PROGGED TO ALLOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETTLE ACROSS THAT AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION DECREASES ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE PATTERN TO AMPLIFY BEFORE THE STORM GETS SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUMP THE SOUTHERLIES BACK UP INTO UTAH
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

GIVEN THE DILEMMA WITH THE MULTIPLE FEATURES AND LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM...HAVE OPTED TO
ADDRESS JUST THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IS NOW AN ADVISORY...AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW IS
FAVORABLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...FOCUS WILL BE ON
ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 5000FT WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND
THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED
AND/OR HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED.

CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT STILL A POSSIBILITY BOTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UTAH. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT DUE TO
WEAKENING SUPPORT AT 700MB. EXPECT JUST SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FLOW
OUT OF THE CANYONS TONIGHT AND A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH FROM CANADA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW...IT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS NEAR THESE SHOWERS MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY BELOW 7000FT AGL...OTHERWISE THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND
9000-10000 FEET AGL OR CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-020-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271643
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW. WARM ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING AT 700MB...AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH AT
THIS TIME. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND ELONGATE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS IT STARTS TO SPLIT FROM
THE MEAN FLOW. THIS STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AMPLE PRECIPITATION IS
STILL FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
UTAH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND MAIN
FOCUS ON THIS SHIFT WILL BE DECIDING ON ANY UPGRADES/ADDITIONS...A
DILEMMA GIVEN GREATER THAN USUAL MODEL SPREAD THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE EASTERLY GRADIENT THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN UTAH.
MODELS SHOW THIS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG TONIGHT AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
ISSUES AS THE PUSH REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THERE
WILL BE MORE SUPPORT AT 700MB WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS WITH THE LATEST RUNS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC
THAT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL OCCUR.

MADE MOSTLY MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SLC
TERMINAL FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6000 FEET AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     UTZ517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SOLUM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING STILL ON TRACK TO
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A WEAK CIRCULATION
AS IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AGAIN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION WITH A COOL/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT WORKING ON THE AMBIENT AIR MASS OVER UTAH COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP EXPECTED.

ORGANIZED PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH THE NOW DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. AN OLD BUT LOOSELY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL GENERATE DEEP
AND FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT/SATURDAY. SOLID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF UTAH SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EARLY IN THE
EVENT.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE PICTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED OVER
UTAH AS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE THE FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. LESS FORCING OVER UTAH WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP...
THOUGH STILL WIDESPREAD...MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ONE AREA THAT WOULD BE WORTH WATCHING WOULD
BE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH. MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD
ORGANIZE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITCOL WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT OF THIS WEEKENDS THROUGH THROUGH UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
LOOKING AT AN EXPANSION OF PRECIP AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EC/GFS SHOW 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS -16C TO -18C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.
WITH GOOD FGEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SNOW COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. LATEST
GFS SHOWS A FASTER BUT MORE SPLIT SOLUTION THAN THE EC...WHICH
INDICATES SOME SNOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RETURN BACK
TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL
DROP CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     UTZ517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 271124
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND STORM
WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING STILL ON TRACK TO
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A WEAK CIRCULATION
AS IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AGAIN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION WITH A COOL/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT WORKING ON THE AMBIENT AIR MASS OVER UTAH COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. WILL KEEP LOW-END POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP EXPECTED.

ORGANIZED PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH THE NOW DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. AN OLD BUT LOOSELY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL GENERATE DEEP
AND FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT/SATURDAY. SOLID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WOULD INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF UTAH SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EARLY IN THE
EVENT.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND THE PICTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED OVER
UTAH AS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATE THE FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. LESS FORCING OVER UTAH WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP...
THOUGH STILL WIDESPREAD...MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ONE AREA THAT WOULD BE WORTH WATCHING WOULD
BE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH. MODEST TIGHTENING OF THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD
ORGANIZE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BRITCOL WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT OF THIS WEEKENDS THROUGH THROUGH UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
LOOKING AT AN EXPANSION OF PRECIP AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...THE BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EC/GFS SHOW 700 MB TEMPS AS LOW
AS -16C TO -18C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.
WITH GOOD FGEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SNOW COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. LATEST
GFS SHOWS A FASTER BUT MORE SPLIT SOLUTION THAN THE EC...WHICH
INDICATES SOME SNOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RETURN BACK
TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL
DROP CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     UTZ517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
742 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD
STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE NEXT ARRIVES ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
100-130KT JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ARIZONA.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.10-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.40" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE A PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP WAS NOSING IN.

WITH A DECREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COMPLETELY. UPDATED TO MASSAGE POPS A BIT...BUT OVERALL MESSAGE IS
STILL ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
RATES TOO WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. CHANGED WEATHER WORDING TO
COVERAGE TERMINOLOGY.

SAW NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...JUST UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE
FORECAST IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS
AND A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE
THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE VICINITY OF THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z...AFTERWARDS A DECREASING COVERAGE
TREND IS FORECAST. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE
WINDS DONT MATERIALIZE UNTIL AFTER 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/KRUSE
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 270242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
742 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD
STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE NEXT ARRIVES ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
100-130KT JET FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ARIZONA.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.10-0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.30-0.40" MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES AN ABNORMALLY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE A PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP WAS NOSING IN.

WITH A DECREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COMPLETELY. UPDATED TO MASSAGE POPS A BIT...BUT OVERALL MESSAGE IS
STILL ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS AND SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
RATES TOO WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. CHANGED WEATHER WORDING TO
COVERAGE TERMINOLOGY.

SAW NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...JUST UPDATED THE
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE
FORECAST IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS
AND A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE
THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE VICINITY OF THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z...AFTERWARDS A DECREASING COVERAGE
TREND IS FORECAST. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE
WINDS DONT MATERIALIZE UNTIL AFTER 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG/KRUSE
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 262348
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND
RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE FORECAST
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AND A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70 ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STARTED UPPING THE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ABOVE CLIMO. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
BE SNOW GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY SHOWERS THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 262348
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND
RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE FORECAST
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AND A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70 ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STARTED UPPING THE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ABOVE CLIMO. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
BE SNOW GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY SHOWERS THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 262348
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND
RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE FORECAST
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AND A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70 ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STARTED UPPING THE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ABOVE CLIMO. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
BE SNOW GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY SHOWERS THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 262348
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
448 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS/BENCHES AND
RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS PUSH IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
WYOMING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND CARVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL THEN DEVELOP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL UTAH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXISTS AS
IT DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRIVING SOME OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIP...BUT BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS SOME EASTERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
SOUTHERN UTAH STORM...DUE TO A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW...AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST SOUTHERN UTAH
VALLEYS RIGHT NOW...WHILE STILL RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT...ARE FORECAST
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE SO DO NOT HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 5500-6000FT COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AND A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
INCLUDES HIGHER THE PASSES ALONG I-15/I-70 ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
EASTERLY CANYON WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT...BUT
WITH NO SUPPORT AT 700MB THIS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED
WINDS CONFINED LOCALLY TO THE CANYONS. HOWEVER...H7 WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT SO STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISLODGE THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. NEXT UP IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS IMPACTING
UTAH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM INTERIOR CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC DEPICT 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW
-20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NEAR AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STARTED UPPING THE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ABOVE CLIMO. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
BE SNOW GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 2000-3000 FEET AGL NEAR ANY SHOWERS THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ517-518.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities