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000
FXUS65 KSLC 222123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SUN)...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH
THE RIDGE.

EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS...THAT SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z THU AND CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET SHOULD
ALSO ENHANCE MIXING A BIT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW TEMPS SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH. SWLY
FLOW ALSO PICK UP A LITTLE FRI AND EXPECTED A FEW MORE DEGREES
WARMING. SOUTH WINDS START TO PICK UP SAT AS THE NEXT PAC TROF
STARTS MOVING ASHORE BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON SAT ALTHO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT COULD SHAVE A DEGREE OR SO OFF MAXES
FROM FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WARM
YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH...AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT
COULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE
GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. EITHER WAY...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -8 CELSIUS OVER THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...CURRENT SOLUTIONS DO
PRODUCE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
A BIT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND BROUGHT DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS THE COLD
AIR FILTERS IN...WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT IF SHOWERS HAPPEN TO LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT STARTING TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS
PROMOTING A MOIST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EC HAS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PART OF
THE FORECAST...WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY ON DAY 7. WHILE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR IN DAYS 6-10...THE 12Z RUNS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
UTAH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
CEILINGS ABOVE 7000FT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221543
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
RIDGE.

TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.

THE CIRRUS MAY END UP BEING A BIT THINNER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF SAGS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CWA.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH.

WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221543
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
943 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE
RIDGE.

TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH.

THE CIRRUS MAY END UP BEING A BIT THINNER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z AND CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF SAGS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CWA.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH.

WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE SKY COVER SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220914
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
314 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY.
DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS YESTERDAYS SYSTEM ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAILS OVER IDAHO...WITH A
DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC 75-125KT JET OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...WITH A 75-95KT NORTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.20" NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...TO 0.70" EASTERN VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE TO OUR NORTH...BUT A
WEAK JET UNDERCUTTING THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC
FLOW LOOKS TO SUPPLY THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

700MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND FROM A LOW THIS MORNING NEAR 0C TO ABOUT
+8C BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. BUFKIT
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT WILL NOT BE MIXING EFFECTIVELY TODAY
WILL A STABLE AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. UNDERCUT
TYPICAL BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BLEND ACROSS THESE AREAS. DID THE
SAME FOR TOMORROW THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE A FEW VALLEYS BEGIN TO MIX
MORE EFFECTIVELY IN WHAT COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY.

BY FRIDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. AT THE
SURFACE...PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH BETTER MIXING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(GIVEN 500MB FLOW INCREASING TO 40KTS).

WENT ABOVE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN MINIMIZED DECOUPLING
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STORM SYSTEM. 700 MB FLOW IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WOULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN UTAH.

LATEST ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING.
CURRENT GFS DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONSET OF PRECIP IS ALSO SLOWER IN
THE GFS. TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LIGHTER AS WELL BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WITH THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE EC
BRINGS IT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AND HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING IS MUCH
WEAKER IN THE LATEST GFS AS IT BRINGS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING PACIFIC
STORM INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE...SHOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DURING THIS PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO FOR
DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A FEW CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY. ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 220259
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
859 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS LEFT A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL UT. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS THE PARENT TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY
PLUME OF SHALLOW WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH CREST EARLY THIS EVENING...LIKELY AIDED
BY A SUBTLE SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN UT. UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND ADJACENT WASATCH RANGE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE 700MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INDUCING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...HOWEVER A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT MIXING...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CONFINED NEAR CLIMO. A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED WARMING
ALOFT...INCREASED FLOW AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KSLC THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT DOES NOT OCCUR AT ALL...AND
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 212122
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
322 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SAT)...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CWA. THIS FRONT IS STALLING OUT AND WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR A MILFORD TO PRICE LINE
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE REFORMED ACROSS
THE FAR N AHEAD OF ONE FINAL VORT LOBE BEFORE THE TROF AXIS
PASSES.

THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE BEFORE MORNING. THE FAR NRN SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY
THIS EVE AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
DIP TO CHILLY LEVELS TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS THIS TROF FOR WED AND THE OLD FRONT
LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND NO PRECIP
WITH THIS WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E THU BUT HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE THU AND FRI WITH A WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN PLACE.

OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSES THE CWA WED THRU THU THEN IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR FRI WITH
LOCAL S WINDS IN THE WRN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT
TRANSFORMS INTO A BROADER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRETTY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER ON SATURDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO TIMING AND STRENGTH AGREEMENT FOR THE
TROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH SO DOES NOT
LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. HAVE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY
AS THE 500 MB COLD POCKET STILL HANGING ON.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE BUT
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 09Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRING BY 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211602
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF IS LIFTING FROM NRN NV
INTO ID THIS MORNING. SLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS UNDER THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN UT
AND SHOULD REACH SLC BY 17Z.

THE UPPER SUPPORT OUTRAN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PREVENTING THE
SHOWERS FROM ORGANIZING INTO A MORE ROBUST BAND ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DID CROSS THE WASATCH FRONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT ONE LAST BAND RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LARGE.

SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLING FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM NERN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT WHILE
THE NORTH AND FAR SW DRIES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
OLD FRONT INTO THE NIGHT BUT CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TO CHILLY LEVELS TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS THIS TROF FOR WED AND THE OLD FRONT
LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND NO PRECIP
WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E THU BUT HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE THU AND FRI WITH A WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN PLACE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER POPS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY AND ADJUST
SKY COVER. RAISED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTH THRU THE DAY
PARTICULARLY POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE NW DESERTS. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE AGAIN TO FURTHER LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN
1620 AND 1630Z BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED ASCERTAINED FROM THE TDWR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
LIKELY AHEAD AND UP TO AN HOUR BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY TEMPORARY CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211602
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS UTAH TODAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF IS LIFTING FROM NRN NV
INTO ID THIS MORNING. SLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS UNDER THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NWRN UT
AND SHOULD REACH SLC BY 17Z.

THE UPPER SUPPORT OUTRAN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PREVENTING THE
SHOWERS FROM ORGANIZING INTO A MORE ROBUST BAND ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DID CROSS THE WASATCH FRONT
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT ONE LAST BAND RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LARGE.

SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLING FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM NERN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT WHILE
THE NORTH AND FAR SW DRIES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
OLD FRONT INTO THE NIGHT BUT CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TO CHILLY LEVELS TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS THIS TROF FOR WED AND THE OLD FRONT
LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND NO PRECIP
WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E THU BUT HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE THU AND FRI WITH A WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN PLACE.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER POPS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY AND ADJUST
SKY COVER. RAISED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTH THRU THE DAY
PARTICULARLY POST FRONTAL ACROSS THE NW DESERTS. MAY NEED TO
UPDATE AGAIN TO FURTHER LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN
1620 AND 1630Z BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED ASCERTAINED FROM THE TDWR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
LIKELY AHEAD AND UP TO AN HOUR BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY TEMPORARY CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT AGL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211249
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
649 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TODAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THUNDER OGDEN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
PER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EJECTING WAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
90- 115KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75" MOST VALLEYS.

THINK POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE WASTACH FRONT THIS
MORNING BUT DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER FROM LIKELY TO
CHANCE CATEGORY.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS AROUND 15Z AT SALT LAKE CITY. RAP 850-
700MB THICKNESS AND 850MB SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND BEGIN TO STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF UPPER
SUPPORT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS IDAHO AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 9500FT TODAY. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 2-4" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

AS FOR WINDS...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING POST FRONTAL TODAY. WARM SECTOR DOESNT
LOOK TOO BREEZY AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW
IS AROUND 20KTS.

END PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT ON THE DETAILS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM AND INITIAL FRONT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING 700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -3C
TO -4C RANGE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPLIT
IN THE EC COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PIECE DIGS
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IMPACTING PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING...REDUCING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 9500FT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 211249
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
649 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TODAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THUNDER OGDEN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
PER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EJECTING WAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
90- 115KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75" MOST VALLEYS.

THINK POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE WASTACH FRONT THIS
MORNING BUT DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER FROM LIKELY TO
CHANCE CATEGORY.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS AROUND 15Z AT SALT LAKE CITY. RAP 850-
700MB THICKNESS AND 850MB SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND BEGIN TO STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF UPPER
SUPPORT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS IDAHO AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 9500FT TODAY. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 2-4" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

AS FOR WINDS...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING POST FRONTAL TODAY. WARM SECTOR DOESNT
LOOK TOO BREEZY AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW
IS AROUND 20KTS.

END PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT ON THE DETAILS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM AND INITIAL FRONT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING 700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -3C
TO -4C RANGE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPLIT
IN THE EC COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PIECE DIGS
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IMPACTING PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING...REDUCING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 9500FT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 210846
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TODAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EJECTING WAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
90- 115KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75" MOST VALLEYS.

THINK POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE WASTACH FRONT THIS
MORNING BUT DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER FROM LIKELY TO
CHANCE CATEGORY.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS AROUND 15Z AT SALT LAKE CITY. RAP 850-
700MB THICKNESS AND 850MB SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND BEGIN TO STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF UPPER
SUPPORT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS IDAHO AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 9500FT TODAY. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 2-4" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

AS FOR WINDS...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING POST FRONTAL TODAY. WARM SECTOR DOESNT
LOOK TOO BREEZY AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW
IS AROUND 20KTS.

END PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT ON THE DETAILS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM AND INITIAL FRONT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING 700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -3C
TO -4C RANGE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPLIT
IN THE EC COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PIECE DIGS
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IMPACTING PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING...REDUCING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 9500FT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KSLC 210846
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TODAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EJECTING WAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
90- 115KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75" MOST VALLEYS.

THINK POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE WASTACH FRONT THIS
MORNING BUT DIDNT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER FROM LIKELY TO
CHANCE CATEGORY.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS AROUND 15Z AT SALT LAKE CITY. RAP 850-
700MB THICKNESS AND 850MB SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMAL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND BEGIN TO STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF UPPER
SUPPORT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS IDAHO AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 9500FT TODAY. THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 2-4" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

AS FOR WINDS...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING POST FRONTAL TODAY. WARM SECTOR DOESNT
LOOK TOO BREEZY AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW
IS AROUND 20KTS.

END PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT ON THE DETAILS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM AND INITIAL FRONT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...DROPPING 700 MB TEMPS INTO THE -3C
TO -4C RANGE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPLIT
IN THE EC COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PIECE DIGS
INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IMPACTING PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH. REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LEAST SCATTERED DURING THIS
PERIOD. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING...REDUCING CIGS TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH. SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 9500FT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KSLC 210325
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE
OREGON/NORCAL COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH...BEFORE BECOMING MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL
UTAH AND DIMINISHING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 9-10 KFT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE PRECIP EVENT WITH ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINING
MINIMAL. GOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL...AND NO
UPDATES CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KSLC WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER BELOW 7 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

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FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 210325
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE
OREGON/NORCAL COASTLINE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH...BEFORE BECOMING MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL
UTAH AND DIMINISHING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 9-10 KFT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE PRECIP EVENT WITH ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINING
MINIMAL. GOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL...AND NO
UPDATES CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KSLC WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER BELOW 7 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 202218
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z FRI)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTN TO THE EAST OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF MOVING ON TO THE WEST
COAST. A LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SOME AFTN
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING AND COULD PERSIST LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS DYNAMICS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WEST
COAST TROF. ONLY EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS AND NO THUNDER.

THE PAC TROF LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT THRU TUE AS AN UPSTREAM TROF
FORCES IT TO WEAKEN AND EJECT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY THAT COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP FOR THE
NRN CWA TUE MORNING EXTENDING SWD INTO W CENTRAL UT. THIS BAND
SHIFTS TO NERN TO CENTRAL UT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT IN THE
AFTN AND STARTS TO WEAKEN.

THE EJECTING NATURE OF THIS TROF PREVENTS MUCH COLD AIR FROM
REACHING THE CWA AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR NRN UT
OCCURS BEFORE IT GETS COD ENOUGH FOR ANY REAL HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SO IMPACTS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE FROM SNOWFALL.

AS THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD WED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FROM THIS
HOWEVER. INCREASING SWLY FLOW THU RETURNS DRY AND MILD WX TO THE
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN A LATE WEEKEND TROUGH
IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THOUGH
DETAILS DIFFER ON A VARIETY OF LEVELS REGARDING TIMING...
AMPLIFICATION...AND NOW PER 12Z ECMWF BREADTH OF COLD AIR...SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DETAILS...12Z ECMWF A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE SPLITTING NATURE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT COMES ON SHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA SUNDAY...SAID RUN
CLOSES THE UPPER LOW OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE ENTERING THE
STATE... MODERATING AS IT LOSES CONNECTION TO COLDEST AIR. H7 TEMPS
ONLY DROP TO AROUND ZERO AT KSLC DURING PEAK OF CAA WHICH IS A
MODEST 5 TO 6 DEGREE INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THAT OF THE THE
LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS. CAN SEE THIS AS A POTENTIAL DUE TO A
DECENT WAVELENGTH TO YET ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH NEAR 150W ATTM WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN...BUT CHANCES OF IT CLOSING OFF MORE SHARPLY TO OUR
WEST SLOWING PROGRESSION DOWN FURTHER APPEAR MINIMAL DUE TO SAID
UPSTREAM TROUGH. MINIMAL CHANGES RUN TO RUN IN GFS THOUGH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT AS FAST AS IT CAN GET. THUS
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE PERIOD THAT FALLS
BETWEEN...SUNDAY...AND TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH TO OTHER DETAILS IN
LATEST FORECAST EXPECTING THESE TO CHANGE OVER TIME AS MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY TRENDS MORE POSITIVE. INCREASED POPS ON BOTH SIDES
OF THAT PERIOD AS WELL...BUT AGAIN...QUITE BLENDED DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES AN
ALL DRY BUT COOL FORECAST REMAINS FOR MONDAY BENEATH BUILDING
HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAKE BREEZE IS CURRENTLY STALLED ON THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF THE KSLC TERMINAL AFTER MAKING AN EARLIER SURGE. SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN LATEST TAF
TIMING OF 2230-23Z FOR A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS SAID...A 40
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 14-16Z TUESDAY
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AT OR BELOW
6000FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 202218
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z FRI)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTN TO THE EAST OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF MOVING ON TO THE WEST
COAST. A LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SOME AFTN
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING AND COULD PERSIST LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS DYNAMICS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WEST
COAST TROF. ONLY EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS AND NO THUNDER.

THE PAC TROF LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT THRU TUE AS AN UPSTREAM TROF
FORCES IT TO WEAKEN AND EJECT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY THAT COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP FOR THE
NRN CWA TUE MORNING EXTENDING SWD INTO W CENTRAL UT. THIS BAND
SHIFTS TO NERN TO CENTRAL UT ALONG THE STALLING FRONT IN THE
AFTN AND STARTS TO WEAKEN.

THE EJECTING NATURE OF THIS TROF PREVENTS MUCH COLD AIR FROM
REACHING THE CWA AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR NRN UT
OCCURS BEFORE IT GETS COD ENOUGH FOR ANY REAL HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SO IMPACTS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE FROM SNOWFALL.

AS THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD WED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FROM THIS
HOWEVER. INCREASING SWLY FLOW THU RETURNS DRY AND MILD WX TO THE
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN A LATE WEEKEND TROUGH
IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THOUGH
DETAILS DIFFER ON A VARIETY OF LEVELS REGARDING TIMING...
AMPLIFICATION...AND NOW PER 12Z ECMWF BREADTH OF COLD AIR...SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DETAILS...12Z ECMWF A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE SPLITTING NATURE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT COMES ON SHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA SUNDAY...SAID RUN
CLOSES THE UPPER LOW OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BEFORE ENTERING THE
STATE... MODERATING AS IT LOSES CONNECTION TO COLDEST AIR. H7 TEMPS
ONLY DROP TO AROUND ZERO AT KSLC DURING PEAK OF CAA WHICH IS A
MODEST 5 TO 6 DEGREE INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THAT OF THE THE
LAST SEVERAL GFS SOLUTIONS. CAN SEE THIS AS A POTENTIAL DUE TO A
DECENT WAVELENGTH TO YET ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH NEAR 150W ATTM WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN...BUT CHANCES OF IT CLOSING OFF MORE SHARPLY TO OUR
WEST SLOWING PROGRESSION DOWN FURTHER APPEAR MINIMAL DUE TO SAID
UPSTREAM TROUGH. MINIMAL CHANGES RUN TO RUN IN GFS THOUGH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT AS FAST AS IT CAN GET. THUS
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE PERIOD THAT FALLS
BETWEEN...SUNDAY...AND TOOK A BLENDED APPROACH TO OTHER DETAILS IN
LATEST FORECAST EXPECTING THESE TO CHANGE OVER TIME AS MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY TRENDS MORE POSITIVE. INCREASED POPS ON BOTH SIDES
OF THAT PERIOD AS WELL...BUT AGAIN...QUITE BLENDED DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF TRACK. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES AN
ALL DRY BUT COOL FORECAST REMAINS FOR MONDAY BENEATH BUILDING
HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAKE BREEZE IS CURRENTLY STALLED ON THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF THE KSLC TERMINAL AFTER MAKING AN EARLIER SURGE. SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN LATEST TAF
TIMING OF 2230-23Z FOR A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS SAID...A 40
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 14-16Z TUESDAY
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AT OR BELOW
6000FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING TO THE
EAST OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. A LITTLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN UT AND WORKS NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

EXPECT SOME AFTN CONVECTION TODAY FROM THIS MOISTURE FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE ERN VALLEYS.

THE PAC TROF LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT THRU TUE AS AN UPSTREAM TROF
FORCES IT TO WEAKEN AND EJECT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY THAT COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP FOR THE
NRN CWA TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL UT IN THE AFTN AS WELL AS IN THE PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE OVER SERN UT.

THE EJECTING NATURE OF THIS TROF PREVENTS MUCH COLD AIR FROM
REACHING THE CWA AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR NRN UT
OCCURS BEFORE THE 700 MB TEMPS REACH 0C. SO THE THREAT OF ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL LOOKS SMALL AND IMPACTS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE.

AS THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD WED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FROM THIS
HOWEVER. INCREASING SWLY FLOW THU INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC
TROF KEEPS THE CWA DRY AND MILD. SO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST
WED THRU SAT APPEARS OK.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE NORTHWEST. A SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED AROUND 03Z
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 14-16Z TUESDAY
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AT OR BELOW
6000FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING TO THE
EAST OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. A LITTLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN UT AND WORKS NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

EXPECT SOME AFTN CONVECTION TODAY FROM THIS MOISTURE FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE ERN VALLEYS.

THE PAC TROF LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT THRU TUE AS AN UPSTREAM TROF
FORCES IT TO WEAKEN AND EJECT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY THAT COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP FOR THE
NRN CWA TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL UT IN THE AFTN AS WELL AS IN THE PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE OVER SERN UT.

THE EJECTING NATURE OF THIS TROF PREVENTS MUCH COLD AIR FROM
REACHING THE CWA AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR NRN UT
OCCURS BEFORE THE 700 MB TEMPS REACH 0C. SO THE THREAT OF ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL LOOKS SMALL AND IMPACTS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE.

AS THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD WED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FROM THIS
HOWEVER. INCREASING SWLY FLOW THU INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC
TROF KEEPS THE CWA DRY AND MILD. SO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST
WED THRU SAT APPEARS OK.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE NORTHWEST. A SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED AROUND 03Z
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 14-16Z TUESDAY
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AT OR BELOW
6000FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200845
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHER ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
100-120KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.60" VALLEYS.

TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS WE GET INTO A PRE-FRONTAL REGIME.
HEIGHTS/PRESSURE BEGIN TO FALL AS A WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC
TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP.

EXPECT MOST ALL VALLEYS TO REALIZE BETTER MIXING TODAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. 700MB TEMPERATURES
ARE SHOWN TO RISE TO ABOUT +8C PER THE RAP.

ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON BUILDUPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z NAM AND
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH THE 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO JUSTIFY A 20 POP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

INDICATE RISING POP CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS THIS
EVENING...NORTH TOWARD PRICE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS...00Z NAM...WITH THE SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATING RISING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

GREATEST POPS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. QPF WILL BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
QUICKLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIMITING INSTABILITY.
STILL...GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION
ALONG WITH JUSTIFYING A MENTION OF THUNDER. MODELS ALL FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING BEST COVERAGE AND QPF EAST OF THE WASTACH
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE IDAHO BORDER.
STILL...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 10KFT TUESDAY. THIS COULD
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 3-5" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

END PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH MAXES UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING...WITH THE LATEST GFS
JUST A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE EC...BUT BOTH BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP 700 MB
TEMPS FROM THE +6 TO +8C RANGE TO AS LOW AS -5 OR -6C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EXTENDED AND
MAINTAINED GOING POPS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY...AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CROSSING UTAH TOMORROW. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A
MOUNTAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 10KFT. FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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VISIT...
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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200845
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHER ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC
100-120KT JET OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z
RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.60" VALLEYS.

TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS WE GET INTO A PRE-FRONTAL REGIME.
HEIGHTS/PRESSURE BEGIN TO FALL AS A WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC
TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP.

EXPECT MOST ALL VALLEYS TO REALIZE BETTER MIXING TODAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. 700MB TEMPERATURES
ARE SHOWN TO RISE TO ABOUT +8C PER THE RAP.

ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON BUILDUPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z NAM AND
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH THE 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO JUSTIFY A 20 POP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

INDICATE RISING POP CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS THIS
EVENING...NORTH TOWARD PRICE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS...00Z NAM...WITH THE SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATING RISING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

GREATEST POPS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. QPF WILL BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
QUICKLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIMITING INSTABILITY.
STILL...GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION
ALONG WITH JUSTIFYING A MENTION OF THUNDER. MODELS ALL FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING BEST COVERAGE AND QPF EAST OF THE WASTACH
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE IDAHO BORDER.
STILL...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO LOWER TO ABOUT 10KFT TUESDAY. THIS COULD
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY IN THE UINTA
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOWFALL COULD AMOUNT TO 3-5" ON A SNOWBOARD.
ROADS ARE WARMER AND WITH MUCH OF THE EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME...SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COUNTERACT IMPACTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING PEAK INTENSITY.

END PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW LOOKS TO
SUPPLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH MAXES UP TO 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY...ALLOWING A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING...WITH THE LATEST GFS
JUST A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE EC...BUT BOTH BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP 700 MB
TEMPS FROM THE +6 TO +8C RANGE TO AS LOW AS -5 OR -6C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EXTENDED AND
MAINTAINED GOING POPS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY...AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CROSSING UTAH TOMORROW. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A
MOUNTAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 10KFT. FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE INTO MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND GRADUALLY LATE WEEK WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY.
ANOTHER WET COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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