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000
FXUS66 KSTO 121051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather pattern expected to continue for interior northern
California through early next week with well above normal
temperatures. A wetter pattern returns for the middle and end of
next week with daytime highs back down closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California under southwest flow aloft this morning
between a high pressure ridge over the Great Basin and a trough
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Weak frontal band now off the
north coast expected to lift northward and break apart as in moves
inland into the ridge so no precipitation is expected over the CWA
in the short term. Southwest flow aloft is feeding some varying
amounts of high cloudiness over the north state. High clouds over
the northern San Joaquin valley this morning having little impact
on fog which has formed again as it has over the last few nights.
Fog has not become especially widespread or dense the last couple
of nights and not expected to do so this morning. Daytime highs
today remaining well above normal and similar to Thursday highs.
Upper ridge begins to amplify offshore over the weekend bringing a
slow warming trend. High cloud cover will continue to spill over
the ridge as it develops with a short wave disturbance bringing a
slight chance of light showers to the northern mountains on
Sunday as it rides over the ridge. Upper ridge amplifies more on
Monday with ridge axis forecast to shift inland over the west
coast. This will bring clearer skies and a little more warming
with daytime highs pushing up to near record territory.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

High pressure will remain in control over California through
Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday, moisture in advance of the
next weather system should start to spill into the interior.
While confidence continues to increase in wet weather for NorCal,
there are significant differences in timing and strength. The bulk
of the precipitation centers around Thursday. The GFS and GEM are
considerably faster and weaker with the wave than the ECMWF. Snow
levels are currently projected to drop down to around 5000 feet.

The ECMWF and GEM suggest a secondary weaker wave moving through
the region next Friday. Confidence is lower in that system
however.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions today with light winds. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog
this morning across the Valley south of the Sutter Buttes.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 121051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather pattern expected to continue for interior northern
California through early next week with well above normal
temperatures. A wetter pattern returns for the middle and end of
next week with daytime highs back down closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California under southwest flow aloft this morning
between a high pressure ridge over the Great Basin and a trough
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Weak frontal band now off the
north coast expected to lift northward and break apart as in moves
inland into the ridge so no precipitation is expected over the CWA
in the short term. Southwest flow aloft is feeding some varying
amounts of high cloudiness over the north state. High clouds over
the northern San Joaquin valley this morning having little impact
on fog which has formed again as it has over the last few nights.
Fog has not become especially widespread or dense the last couple
of nights and not expected to do so this morning. Daytime highs
today remaining well above normal and similar to Thursday highs.
Upper ridge begins to amplify offshore over the weekend bringing a
slow warming trend. High cloud cover will continue to spill over
the ridge as it develops with a short wave disturbance bringing a
slight chance of light showers to the northern mountains on
Sunday as it rides over the ridge. Upper ridge amplifies more on
Monday with ridge axis forecast to shift inland over the west
coast. This will bring clearer skies and a little more warming
with daytime highs pushing up to near record territory.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

High pressure will remain in control over California through
Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday, moisture in advance of the
next weather system should start to spill into the interior.
While confidence continues to increase in wet weather for NorCal,
there are significant differences in timing and strength. The bulk
of the precipitation centers around Thursday. The GFS and GEM are
considerably faster and weaker with the wave than the ECMWF. Snow
levels are currently projected to drop down to around 5000 feet.

The ECMWF and GEM suggest a secondary weaker wave moving through
the region next Friday. Confidence is lower in that system
however.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions today with light winds. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog
this morning across the Valley south of the Sutter Buttes.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 121051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather pattern expected to continue for interior northern
California through early next week with well above normal
temperatures. A wetter pattern returns for the middle and end of
next week with daytime highs back down closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California under southwest flow aloft this morning
between a high pressure ridge over the Great Basin and a trough
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Weak frontal band now off the
north coast expected to lift northward and break apart as in moves
inland into the ridge so no precipitation is expected over the CWA
in the short term. Southwest flow aloft is feeding some varying
amounts of high cloudiness over the north state. High clouds over
the northern San Joaquin valley this morning having little impact
on fog which has formed again as it has over the last few nights.
Fog has not become especially widespread or dense the last couple
of nights and not expected to do so this morning. Daytime highs
today remaining well above normal and similar to Thursday highs.
Upper ridge begins to amplify offshore over the weekend bringing a
slow warming trend. High cloud cover will continue to spill over
the ridge as it develops with a short wave disturbance bringing a
slight chance of light showers to the northern mountains on
Sunday as it rides over the ridge. Upper ridge amplifies more on
Monday with ridge axis forecast to shift inland over the west
coast. This will bring clearer skies and a little more warming
with daytime highs pushing up to near record territory.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

High pressure will remain in control over California through
Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday, moisture in advance of the
next weather system should start to spill into the interior.
While confidence continues to increase in wet weather for NorCal,
there are significant differences in timing and strength. The bulk
of the precipitation centers around Thursday. The GFS and GEM are
considerably faster and weaker with the wave than the ECMWF. Snow
levels are currently projected to drop down to around 5000 feet.

The ECMWF and GEM suggest a secondary weaker wave moving through
the region next Friday. Confidence is lower in that system
however.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions today with light winds. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog
this morning across the Valley south of the Sutter Buttes.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 120650 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a narrow frontal band offshore with EKA
radar detecting some light precip offshore. Trend of this feature is
to weaken as it moves inland with little if any QPF expected in our
CWA.

Relatively narrow bands of CI/CS moving through Norcal due to SW
flow aloft with ridge axis over the Great Basin. Band of high clouds
appears a little thicker over SAC area at this hour than over the
Nrn SJV with slow SEwd movement given the SW flow aloft. If this
trend continues...the high clouds would limit fog more in the Nrn
SJV than the Srn Sac Vly. However...forecast moisture profiles from
Bufkit suggest the high clouds will thin by Fri morning thereby
increasing the chances for some local F+ from vcnty of SAC Swd into
the Nrn SJV.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic zone
encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is aimed
into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring a threat
of some light precip to the far NW California coast and coastal
interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not expected to
reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Some patchy MVFR
locally IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 120650 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a narrow frontal band offshore with EKA
radar detecting some light precip offshore. Trend of this feature is
to weaken as it moves inland with little if any QPF expected in our
CWA.

Relatively narrow bands of CI/CS moving through Norcal due to SW
flow aloft with ridge axis over the Great Basin. Band of high clouds
appears a little thicker over SAC area at this hour than over the
Nrn SJV with slow SEwd movement given the SW flow aloft. If this
trend continues...the high clouds would limit fog more in the Nrn
SJV than the Srn Sac Vly. However...forecast moisture profiles from
Bufkit suggest the high clouds will thin by Fri morning thereby
increasing the chances for some local F+ from vcnty of SAC Swd into
the Nrn SJV.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic zone
encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is aimed
into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring a threat
of some light precip to the far NW California coast and coastal
interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not expected to
reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Some patchy MVFR
locally IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 120650 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a narrow frontal band offshore with EKA
radar detecting some light precip offshore. Trend of this feature is
to weaken as it moves inland with little if any QPF expected in our
CWA.

Relatively narrow bands of CI/CS moving through Norcal due to SW
flow aloft with ridge axis over the Great Basin. Band of high clouds
appears a little thicker over SAC area at this hour than over the
Nrn SJV with slow SEwd movement given the SW flow aloft. If this
trend continues...the high clouds would limit fog more in the Nrn
SJV than the Srn Sac Vly. However...forecast moisture profiles from
Bufkit suggest the high clouds will thin by Fri morning thereby
increasing the chances for some local F+ from vcnty of SAC Swd into
the Nrn SJV.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic zone
encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is aimed
into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring a threat
of some light precip to the far NW California coast and coastal
interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not expected to
reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Some patchy MVFR
locally IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 120543
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a narrow frontal band offshore with EKA
radar detecting some light precip offshore. Trend of this feature is
to weaken as it moves inland with little if any QPF expected in our
CWA.

Relatively narrow bands of CI/CS moving through Norcal due to SW
flow aloft with ridge axis over the Great Basin. Band of high clouds
appears a little thicker over SAC area at this hour than over the
Nrn SJV with little Ewd movement given the SW flow aloft. If this
trend continues...the high clouds may limit fog in the Srn Sac Vly
but not in the Nrn SJV Fri morning. Thus the Nrn SJV may be more
susceptible to F+ than the Srn Sac Vly Fri morning.  JHM

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic zone
encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is aimed
into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring a threat
of some light precip to the far NW California coast and coastal
interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not expected to
reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Some patchy MVFR
locally IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 112300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS will continue to flow
over the area over the next 24 hours. This will help to hinder
valley fog development tonight but some brief patchy light fog
possible in the Southern Sac/Northern San Joaquin valley Friday
morning.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is
aimed into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring
a threat of some light precip to the far NW California coast and
coastal interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not
expected to reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore
and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 112300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS will continue to flow
over the area over the next 24 hours. This will help to hinder
valley fog development tonight but some brief patchy light fog
possible in the Southern Sac/Northern San Joaquin valley Friday
morning.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is
aimed into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring
a threat of some light precip to the far NW California coast and
coastal interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not
expected to reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore
and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 112300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS will continue to flow
over the area over the next 24 hours. This will help to hinder
valley fog development tonight but some brief patchy light fog
possible in the Southern Sac/Northern San Joaquin valley Friday
morning.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is
aimed into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring
a threat of some light precip to the far NW California coast and
coastal interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not
expected to reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore
and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 111730
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
930 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS moved over the forecast
area overnight to hinder development of fog in the Central Valley.
Variable mid to high level cloudiness will continue to stream into
the area over the next 24 hours, bringing slight cooling and
limiting nighttime valley fog formation.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone becomes elongated and battles with strong downstream ridge.
Main focus for precip is aimed into the PacNW. Southern portion
of front will bring a threat of some light precip to the far NW
California coast and coastal interior but not expected to reach
into our forecast area. Weakening surface boundary and associated
upper trough move across far northern portions of CA Friday night
into Saturday morning with little impact other than some clouds.

Heights and thicknesses forecast to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies along 130 W. High temperatures expected in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and there could
be some patchy valley morning fog but not expected to be dense,
widespread, or long lived. Weak system rides over the ridge Sunday
with some light overrunning precip possible into far northern
portions of CA, but looks to remain north of our forecast area.
Surface high pressure builds through Oregon into the Great Basin
Sunday with some breezy northerly winds possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 111730
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
930 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS moved over the forecast
area overnight to hinder development of fog in the Central Valley.
Variable mid to high level cloudiness will continue to stream into
the area over the next 24 hours, bringing slight cooling and
limiting nighttime valley fog formation.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone becomes elongated and battles with strong downstream ridge.
Main focus for precip is aimed into the PacNW. Southern portion
of front will bring a threat of some light precip to the far NW
California coast and coastal interior but not expected to reach
into our forecast area. Weakening surface boundary and associated
upper trough move across far northern portions of CA Friday night
into Saturday morning with little impact other than some clouds.

Heights and thicknesses forecast to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies along 130 W. High temperatures expected in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and there could
be some patchy valley morning fog but not expected to be dense,
widespread, or long lived. Weak system rides over the ridge Sunday
with some light overrunning precip possible into far northern
portions of CA, but looks to remain north of our forecast area.
Surface high pressure builds through Oregon into the Great Basin
Sunday with some breezy northerly winds possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 111730
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
930 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridge axis over the Great Basin with southwesterly
flow aloft over Interior NorCal as weak Pacific frontal system
approaches. Considerable amount of CI/CS moved over the forecast
area overnight to hinder development of fog in the Central Valley.
Variable mid to high level cloudiness will continue to stream into
the area over the next 24 hours, bringing slight cooling and
limiting nighttime valley fog formation.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic
zone becomes elongated and battles with strong downstream ridge.
Main focus for precip is aimed into the PacNW. Southern portion
of front will bring a threat of some light precip to the far NW
California coast and coastal interior but not expected to reach
into our forecast area. Weakening surface boundary and associated
upper trough move across far northern portions of CA Friday night
into Saturday morning with little impact other than some clouds.

Heights and thicknesses forecast to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies along 130 W. High temperatures expected in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and there could
be some patchy valley morning fog but not expected to be dense,
widespread, or long lived. Weak system rides over the ridge Sunday
with some light overrunning precip possible into far northern
portions of CA, but looks to remain north of our forecast area.
Surface high pressure builds through Oregon into the Great Basin
Sunday with some breezy northerly winds possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds. Some patchy MVFR-locally
IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 111126
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
326 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through early next week except for a slight
chance of light showers across the northern mountains over the
weekend. The next chance of precipitation across the whole north
state expected around the middle of next week. Daytime highs above
normal through early next week dropping to closer to normal by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging over the west coast continues while an
offshore weather system spills high cloudiness across the north
state. Less high cloudiness to the south has allowed light fog to
form again in the northern San Joaquin valley this morning. The
upper ridge axis will slip eastward a bit today allowing for a bit
more cooling but daytime highs are still expected to come in 10 or
more degrees above normal for this time of year. The upper ridge
axis will be displaced even farther to the east on Friday as a
weak system rides over the ridge and into the Pacific northwest.
A slight chance of light precipitation exists across the northern
mountains of Shasta county Friday afternoon and night but any
amounts of would be very light and daytime highs Friday will
remain well above normal. Upper ridging rebuilds Saturday and
Sunday for a small warming trend while another system passes to
the north late Sunday bringing another slight chance of light
showers to the northern mountains. Breezy north winds develop
behind this system on Sunday but are not expected to be critically
strong and generally below about 15 knots.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

BKN high cloudiness continues over Norcal today and will limit
fog formation. Light winds and decent temperature inversions
still lead to local MVFR vis in BR in the southern Sacramento
Valley TAF sites and local IFR in FG in the northern San Joaquin
Valley this morning. JClapp
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 111126
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
326 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through early next week except for a slight
chance of light showers across the northern mountains over the
weekend. The next chance of precipitation across the whole north
state expected around the middle of next week. Daytime highs above
normal through early next week dropping to closer to normal by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging over the west coast continues while an
offshore weather system spills high cloudiness across the north
state. Less high cloudiness to the south has allowed light fog to
form again in the northern San Joaquin valley this morning. The
upper ridge axis will slip eastward a bit today allowing for a bit
more cooling but daytime highs are still expected to come in 10 or
more degrees above normal for this time of year. The upper ridge
axis will be displaced even farther to the east on Friday as a
weak system rides over the ridge and into the Pacific northwest.
A slight chance of light precipitation exists across the northern
mountains of Shasta county Friday afternoon and night but any
amounts of would be very light and daytime highs Friday will
remain well above normal. Upper ridging rebuilds Saturday and
Sunday for a small warming trend while another system passes to
the north late Sunday bringing another slight chance of light
showers to the northern mountains. Breezy north winds develop
behind this system on Sunday but are not expected to be critically
strong and generally below about 15 knots.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

BKN high cloudiness continues over Norcal today and will limit
fog formation. Light winds and decent temperature inversions
still lead to local MVFR vis in BR in the southern Sacramento
Valley TAF sites and local IFR in FG in the northern San Joaquin
Valley this morning. JClapp
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 111126
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
326 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through early next week except for a slight
chance of light showers across the northern mountains over the
weekend. The next chance of precipitation across the whole north
state expected around the middle of next week. Daytime highs above
normal through early next week dropping to closer to normal by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging over the west coast continues while an
offshore weather system spills high cloudiness across the north
state. Less high cloudiness to the south has allowed light fog to
form again in the northern San Joaquin valley this morning. The
upper ridge axis will slip eastward a bit today allowing for a bit
more cooling but daytime highs are still expected to come in 10 or
more degrees above normal for this time of year. The upper ridge
axis will be displaced even farther to the east on Friday as a
weak system rides over the ridge and into the Pacific northwest.
A slight chance of light precipitation exists across the northern
mountains of Shasta county Friday afternoon and night but any
amounts of would be very light and daytime highs Friday will
remain well above normal. Upper ridging rebuilds Saturday and
Sunday for a small warming trend while another system passes to
the north late Sunday bringing another slight chance of light
showers to the northern mountains. Breezy north winds develop
behind this system on Sunday but are not expected to be critically
strong and generally below about 15 knots.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

BKN high cloudiness continues over Norcal today and will limit
fog formation. Light winds and decent temperature inversions
still lead to local MVFR vis in BR in the southern Sacramento
Valley TAF sites and local IFR in FG in the northern San Joaquin
Valley this morning. JClapp
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 110507
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
907 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORCAL MAY ARRIVE BY MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern the next couple of days. Clouds ahead of a weak system
will continue to spread inland the next couple of days. This
should help limit any fog formation in the morning hours. A few
light showers/sprinkles may occur along the northwest coast and
west of the coastal range but is not expected to move further
inland.

Friday/Friday night a slightly stronger but still dry system for
the interior will move through and breaks down the ridge to help
bring a slight cooling trend through Friday.

On Saturday after the system passes skies should be clearing and
northerly winds less than 15 mph may warm up valley temperatures
slightly. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year through the period.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the coast
on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes on more
of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies and mean
temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across Norcal. While
the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of our CWA...Norcal
will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return period. On Mon...the 1
in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs is generally located
from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So once again...for the SAC
CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will flirt with near record
maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower case letter p intended.)
Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the valley during the day could
boost the maxes to record levels.  The anomalous pattern shifts over
Socal on Tue...so the warmest day looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs)
into Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 110507
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
907 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORCAL MAY ARRIVE BY MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern the next couple of days. Clouds ahead of a weak system
will continue to spread inland the next couple of days. This
should help limit any fog formation in the morning hours. A few
light showers/sprinkles may occur along the northwest coast and
west of the coastal range but is not expected to move further
inland.

Friday/Friday night a slightly stronger but still dry system for
the interior will move through and breaks down the ridge to help
bring a slight cooling trend through Friday.

On Saturday after the system passes skies should be clearing and
northerly winds less than 15 mph may warm up valley temperatures
slightly. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year through the period.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the coast
on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes on more
of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies and mean
temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across Norcal. While
the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of our CWA...Norcal
will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return period. On Mon...the 1
in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs is generally located
from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So once again...for the SAC
CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will flirt with near record
maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower case letter p intended.)
Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the valley during the day could
boost the maxes to record levels.  The anomalous pattern shifts over
Socal on Tue...so the warmest day looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs)
into Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 110507
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
907 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORCAL MAY ARRIVE BY MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern the next couple of days. Clouds ahead of a weak system
will continue to spread inland the next couple of days. This
should help limit any fog formation in the morning hours. A few
light showers/sprinkles may occur along the northwest coast and
west of the coastal range but is not expected to move further
inland.

Friday/Friday night a slightly stronger but still dry system for
the interior will move through and breaks down the ridge to help
bring a slight cooling trend through Friday.

On Saturday after the system passes skies should be clearing and
northerly winds less than 15 mph may warm up valley temperatures
slightly. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year through the period.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the coast
on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes on more
of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies and mean
temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across Norcal. While
the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of our CWA...Norcal
will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return period. On Mon...the 1
in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs is generally located
from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So once again...for the SAC
CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will flirt with near record
maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower case letter p intended.)
Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the valley during the day could
boost the maxes to record levels.  The anomalous pattern shifts over
Socal on Tue...so the warmest day looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs)
into Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 102253
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather continues into next week outside of a few
sprinkles or showers across the northern mountains Friday. The
next chance of precipitation for NorCal may arrive by middle to
end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging remains in place over the West Coast, allowing for
dry weather and little more than scattered high clouds. Ridge has
weakened just a bit, allowing for temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. Thursday will feature much of the day with
temperatures within a degree or two of today`s readings. A weak
wave attempts to push into far northern portions of the state
Friday into Saturday, with only a small chance for sprinkles or a
few showers across northern mountains as ridging wins out.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will continue into the weekend.
Patchy fog formation is possible again the next few mornings
across the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the
coast on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes
on more of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies
and mean temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across
Norcal. While the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of
our CWA...Norcal will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return
period. On Mon...the 1 in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs
is generally located from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So
once again...for the SAC CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will
flirt with near record maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower
case letter p intended.) Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the
valley during the day could boost the maxes to record levels. The
anomalous pattern shifts over Socal on Tue...so the warmest day
looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW flow
aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the early
mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 102253
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather continues into next week outside of a few
sprinkles or showers across the northern mountains Friday. The
next chance of precipitation for NorCal may arrive by middle to
end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging remains in place over the West Coast, allowing for
dry weather and little more than scattered high clouds. Ridge has
weakened just a bit, allowing for temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. Thursday will feature much of the day with
temperatures within a degree or two of today`s readings. A weak
wave attempts to push into far northern portions of the state
Friday into Saturday, with only a small chance for sprinkles or a
few showers across northern mountains as ridging wins out.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will continue into the weekend.
Patchy fog formation is possible again the next few mornings
across the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the
coast on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes
on more of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies
and mean temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across
Norcal. While the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of
our CWA...Norcal will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return
period. On Mon...the 1 in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs
is generally located from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So
once again...for the SAC CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will
flirt with near record maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower
case letter p intended.) Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the
valley during the day could boost the maxes to record levels. The
anomalous pattern shifts over Socal on Tue...so the warmest day
looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW flow
aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the early
mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 102253
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather continues into next week outside of a few
sprinkles or showers across the northern mountains Friday. The
next chance of precipitation for NorCal may arrive by middle to
end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging remains in place over the West Coast, allowing for
dry weather and little more than scattered high clouds. Ridge has
weakened just a bit, allowing for temperatures a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. Thursday will feature much of the day with
temperatures within a degree or two of today`s readings. A weak
wave attempts to push into far northern portions of the state
Friday into Saturday, with only a small chance for sprinkles or a
few showers across northern mountains as ridging wins out.
Otherwise dry and mild weather will continue into the weekend.
Patchy fog formation is possible again the next few mornings
across the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the
coast on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes
on more of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies
and mean temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across
Norcal. While the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of
our CWA...Norcal will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return
period. On Mon...the 1 in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs
is generally located from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So
once again...for the SAC CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will
flirt with near record maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower
case letter p intended.) Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the
valley during the day could boost the maxes to record levels. The
anomalous pattern shifts over Socal on Tue...so the warmest day
looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW flow
aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the early
mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 101657
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
857 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers possible over the northern mountains Friday
through Sunday. Otherwise dry and mild through early next week.
The next chance of rain for most of northern California comes the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridge over the western U.S weakens a bit today
allowing for just a bit of cooling overall. As a result...high
temperatures on Wednesday should come in at least a little below
record although a couple weak records could be topped. Stable
conditions under the ridge have allowed for light fog formation
again this morning in the San Joaquin valley and this will be the
case again over the next couple of nights. Only slight changes
expected on Thursday although some increase in high clouds could
bring down high temperatures a degree or two. The upper ridge
pushes eastward a bit more on Friday as a weak Pacific storm
system pushes northeastward into the Pacific Northewest. Although
it is unlikely precipitation will impact areas this far
south...light showers could be possible from about Red Bluff
northward. Upper trough passes to the north on Saturday so slight
precip chance continues through the day. Cloud cover and slightly
cooler airmass bring down high temperatures Friday and Saturday
but daytime highs will still be well above normal.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure dominates late in the weekend and into early next
week. A weak transitory wave moves southeast down the backside of
the ridge through NorCal and western Great Basin on Sunday. We
shouldn`t see any precipitation with it, but locally breezy north
to northeast winds will develop in its wake Sunday into early
Monday. The broad ridge axis moves east of California on Tuesday
with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore winds. The
GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic frontal system
impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.     JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in FG/BR in the
Valley affecting TAF sites.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 101657
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
857 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers possible over the northern mountains Friday
through Sunday. Otherwise dry and mild through early next week.
The next chance of rain for most of northern California comes the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridge over the western U.S weakens a bit today
allowing for just a bit of cooling overall. As a result...high
temperatures on Wednesday should come in at least a little below
record although a couple weak records could be topped. Stable
conditions under the ridge have allowed for light fog formation
again this morning in the San Joaquin valley and this will be the
case again over the next couple of nights. Only slight changes
expected on Thursday although some increase in high clouds could
bring down high temperatures a degree or two. The upper ridge
pushes eastward a bit more on Friday as a weak Pacific storm
system pushes northeastward into the Pacific Northewest. Although
it is unlikely precipitation will impact areas this far
south...light showers could be possible from about Red Bluff
northward. Upper trough passes to the north on Saturday so slight
precip chance continues through the day. Cloud cover and slightly
cooler airmass bring down high temperatures Friday and Saturday
but daytime highs will still be well above normal.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure dominates late in the weekend and into early next
week. A weak transitory wave moves southeast down the backside of
the ridge through NorCal and western Great Basin on Sunday. We
shouldn`t see any precipitation with it, but locally breezy north
to northeast winds will develop in its wake Sunday into early
Monday. The broad ridge axis moves east of California on Tuesday
with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore winds. The
GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic frontal system
impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.     JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs) into
Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in FG/BR in the
Valley affecting TAF sites.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 101101
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
301 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers possible over the northern mountains Friday
through Sunday. Otherwise dry and mild through early next week.
The next chance of rain for most of northern California comes the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridge over the western U.S weakens a bit today
allowing for just a bit of cooling overall. As a result...high
temperatures on Wednesday should come in at least a little below
record although a couple weak records could be topped. Stable
conditions under the ridge have allowed for light fog formation
again this morning in the San Joaquin valley and this will be the
case again over the next couple of nights. Only slight changes
expected on Thursday although some increase in high clouds could
bring down high temperatures a degree or two. The upper ridge
pushes eastward a bit more on Friday as a weak Pacific storm
system pushes northeastward into the Pacific Northewest. Although
it is unlikely precipitation will impact areas this far
south...light showers could be possible from about Red Bluff
northward. Upper trough passes to the north on Saturday so slight
precip chance continues through the day. Cloud cover and slightly
cooler airmass bring down high temperatures Friday and Saturday
but daytime highs will still be well above normal.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure dominates late in the weekend and into early next
week. A weak transitory wave moves southeast down the backside of
the ridge through NorCal and western Great Basin on Sunday. We
shouldn`t see any precipitation with it, but locally breezy north
to northeast winds will develop in its wake Sunday into early
Monday. The broad ridge axis moves east of California on Tuesday
with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore winds. The
GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic frontal system
impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.     JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Big bubble of high pressure means no trouble today except for
some patchy ground fog like seen last couple mornings. Light
terrain-driven winds continue.    JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 101101
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
301 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers possible over the northern mountains Friday
through Sunday. Otherwise dry and mild through early next week.
The next chance of rain for most of northern California comes the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper ridge over the western U.S weakens a bit today
allowing for just a bit of cooling overall. As a result...high
temperatures on Wednesday should come in at least a little below
record although a couple weak records could be topped. Stable
conditions under the ridge have allowed for light fog formation
again this morning in the San Joaquin valley and this will be the
case again over the next couple of nights. Only slight changes
expected on Thursday although some increase in high clouds could
bring down high temperatures a degree or two. The upper ridge
pushes eastward a bit more on Friday as a weak Pacific storm
system pushes northeastward into the Pacific Northewest. Although
it is unlikely precipitation will impact areas this far
south...light showers could be possible from about Red Bluff
northward. Upper trough passes to the north on Saturday so slight
precip chance continues through the day. Cloud cover and slightly
cooler airmass bring down high temperatures Friday and Saturday
but daytime highs will still be well above normal.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

High pressure dominates late in the weekend and into early next
week. A weak transitory wave moves southeast down the backside of
the ridge through NorCal and western Great Basin on Sunday. We
shouldn`t see any precipitation with it, but locally breezy north
to northeast winds will develop in its wake Sunday into early
Monday. The broad ridge axis moves east of California on Tuesday
with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore winds. The
GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic frontal system
impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.     JClapp
&&

.AVIATION...

Big bubble of high pressure means no trouble today except for
some patchy ground fog like seen last couple mornings. Light
terrain-driven winds continue.    JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 100503
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
903 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain over the region but will gradually
weaken the next couple of days. Temperatures will remain well
above normal for this time of year but gradually cool slightly
each day. A few records may fall again on Wednesday mainly from
around Sacramento southward.

Some record highs for Wednesday...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971
Sacramento......74 set in 1988
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988
Stockton........73 set in 1988
Modesto.........75 set in 2006

Areas of late night and early morning fog will likely
form in the central valley later tonight...mainly from the central
Sacramento Valley southward with some pockets of dense fog. High
clouds moving through the region tonight will clear by morning to
help aid in the formation of fog. Temperatures have been trending
cooler with higher dewpoints this evening as well. All of the above
suggest some dense fog forming by morning.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 100503
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
903 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain over the region but will gradually
weaken the next couple of days. Temperatures will remain well
above normal for this time of year but gradually cool slightly
each day. A few records may fall again on Wednesday mainly from
around Sacramento southward.

Some record highs for Wednesday...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971
Sacramento......74 set in 1988
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988
Stockton........73 set in 1988
Modesto.........75 set in 2006

Areas of late night and early morning fog will likely
form in the central valley later tonight...mainly from the central
Sacramento Valley southward with some pockets of dense fog. High
clouds moving through the region tonight will clear by morning to
help aid in the formation of fog. Temperatures have been trending
cooler with higher dewpoints this evening as well. All of the above
suggest some dense fog forming by morning.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 100503
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
903 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain over the region but will gradually
weaken the next couple of days. Temperatures will remain well
above normal for this time of year but gradually cool slightly
each day. A few records may fall again on Wednesday mainly from
around Sacramento southward.

Some record highs for Wednesday...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971
Sacramento......74 set in 1988
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988
Stockton........73 set in 1988
Modesto.........75 set in 2006

Areas of late night and early morning fog will likely
form in the central valley later tonight...mainly from the central
Sacramento Valley southward with some pockets of dense fog. High
clouds moving through the region tonight will clear by morning to
help aid in the formation of fog. Temperatures have been trending
cooler with higher dewpoints this evening as well. All of the above
suggest some dense fog forming by morning.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 092335
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon temps were running about 7 degrees cooler than yesterday in
the North Sac Vly...but were running similar to slightly warmer over
the Srn Sac Vly. Given that the strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has
shifted just E of our CWA (oriented from B.C. into the Great
Basin)...the NAEFS climate height percentiles and mean temp
return intervals which indicated a 30(+) year max of values also
shifted Ewd. The signals suggested the Srn portion of our CWA
would have the best shot of flirting with record max temps today.
For Wed/Thu...these anomalies shift Ewd into the Great Basin and
weaken...thereby reducing the probability of record max temps for
the next couple of days...and generally limiting the probability
to the SCK site on 2/11 due to a more attainable (lower) record
value than at the other sites.

The probability of exceedance tool using model consensus reveals a
similar finding and the value is enclosed in parentheses in the
record tables below. The percentages show the probability of
attaining a record max temp for that day.

Record highs for Today...Feb 9th...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

Record highs for Wed...Feb 10th...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006  (3%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971  (1%)
Sacramento......74 set in 1988  (6%)
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988  (20%)
Stockton........73 set in 1988  (60%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (20%)

For Thu...Feb 11th...
Stockton........71 set in 1988  (70-95%)

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive height/return
interval anomalies weaken the for the rest of the week...but may
return to the Srn half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley the next morning or two...mainly from around
the Yuba City area southward.

Some of the cloud cover from the system just offshore has survived
its encounter with the strong ridge and will spread across the CWA
through Wed. However...it is not expected to limit fog production
too much Wed morning....but the clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second
wave encounters the ridge.

We continue low PoPs for areas N of I-80 on Fri/Fri nite as the Gulf
of AK trof swings through the Pac NW. This trof is forecast to be
strong enough to flatten the ridge and possibly bring a little
light rain to areas N of I-80. However...ridging returns for the
weekend.  JHM

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 092335
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon temps were running about 7 degrees cooler than yesterday in
the North Sac Vly...but were running similar to slightly warmer over
the Srn Sac Vly. Given that the strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has
shifted just E of our CWA (oriented from B.C. into the Great
Basin)...the NAEFS climate height percentiles and mean temp
return intervals which indicated a 30(+) year max of values also
shifted Ewd. The signals suggested the Srn portion of our CWA
would have the best shot of flirting with record max temps today.
For Wed/Thu...these anomalies shift Ewd into the Great Basin and
weaken...thereby reducing the probability of record max temps for
the next couple of days...and generally limiting the probability
to the SCK site on 2/11 due to a more attainable (lower) record
value than at the other sites.

The probability of exceedance tool using model consensus reveals a
similar finding and the value is enclosed in parentheses in the
record tables below. The percentages show the probability of
attaining a record max temp for that day.

Record highs for Today...Feb 9th...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

Record highs for Wed...Feb 10th...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006  (3%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971  (1%)
Sacramento......74 set in 1988  (6%)
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988  (20%)
Stockton........73 set in 1988  (60%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (20%)

For Thu...Feb 11th...
Stockton........71 set in 1988  (70-95%)

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive height/return
interval anomalies weaken the for the rest of the week...but may
return to the Srn half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley the next morning or two...mainly from around
the Yuba City area southward.

Some of the cloud cover from the system just offshore has survived
its encounter with the strong ridge and will spread across the CWA
through Wed. However...it is not expected to limit fog production
too much Wed morning....but the clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second
wave encounters the ridge.

We continue low PoPs for areas N of I-80 on Fri/Fri nite as the Gulf
of AK trof swings through the Pac NW. This trof is forecast to be
strong enough to flatten the ridge and possibly bring a little
light rain to areas N of I-80. However...ridging returns for the
weekend.  JHM

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 092335
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon temps were running about 7 degrees cooler than yesterday in
the North Sac Vly...but were running similar to slightly warmer over
the Srn Sac Vly. Given that the strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has
shifted just E of our CWA (oriented from B.C. into the Great
Basin)...the NAEFS climate height percentiles and mean temp
return intervals which indicated a 30(+) year max of values also
shifted Ewd. The signals suggested the Srn portion of our CWA
would have the best shot of flirting with record max temps today.
For Wed/Thu...these anomalies shift Ewd into the Great Basin and
weaken...thereby reducing the probability of record max temps for
the next couple of days...and generally limiting the probability
to the SCK site on 2/11 due to a more attainable (lower) record
value than at the other sites.

The probability of exceedance tool using model consensus reveals a
similar finding and the value is enclosed in parentheses in the
record tables below. The percentages show the probability of
attaining a record max temp for that day.

Record highs for Today...Feb 9th...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

Record highs for Wed...Feb 10th...
Redding Airport 77 set in 2006  (3%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 1971  (1%)
Sacramento......74 set in 1988  (6%)
Sac Exec........73 set in 1988  (20%)
Stockton........73 set in 1988  (60%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (20%)

For Thu...Feb 11th...
Stockton........71 set in 1988  (70-95%)

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive height/return
interval anomalies weaken the for the rest of the week...but may
return to the Srn half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley the next morning or two...mainly from around
the Yuba City area southward.

Some of the cloud cover from the system just offshore has survived
its encounter with the strong ridge and will spread across the CWA
through Wed. However...it is not expected to limit fog production
too much Wed morning....but the clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second
wave encounters the ridge.

We continue low PoPs for areas N of I-80 on Fri/Fri nite as the Gulf
of AK trof swings through the Pac NW. This trof is forecast to be
strong enough to flatten the ridge and possibly bring a little
light rain to areas N of I-80. However...ridging returns for the
weekend.  JHM

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

High pressure begins to rebuild over California late Saturday
through early next week, bringing continued warm and dry weather.
There may be a period of locally breezy north winds Sunday. High
pressure then shifts eastward late Monday into Tuesday as a
longwave trough approaches the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS and
ECMWF are hinting at a more dynamic frontal system impacting
NorCal toward the middle of next week.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS <10 KT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VALLEY TAF SITES.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 091721
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
921 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has shifted just E of our CWA and
is oriented from B.C. into the Great Basin. The NAEFS climate
height percentiles and mean temp return intervals indicating a
30(+) year max of values has also shifted Ewd with the signals
suggesting the Srn portion of our CWA will have the best shot of
flirting with record max temps today. The lack of warming Nly
winds over the Nrn Sac Vly overnite...unlike last nite...has
resulted in cooler temps...and in RDD`s case a difference of
-22 from yesterday at 14z!

The probability of exceedance tool using the bias consensus of models
also reveals a similar finding and is included in parenthesis in the
record table below. The percentages show the probability of attaining
a record max today.

Record highs for today...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

After the early images from VIS Sat imagery...it appears the fog patch
around KMOD will not expand Nwd and will erode/mix out around 10 am or
so.

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive anomalies
weaken the for the rest of the week...but may return to the Srn
half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley each night, mainly from around the Yuba City
area southward.

Morning models and current satellite trends suggest that some cloud cover
from the system just offshore will survive encountering the ridge and spread
into the CWA late tonight and Wed. The clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second wave
encounters the ridge. Will continue to look at this for the afternoon
packages.   JHM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

A faltering trough temporarily breaks down the ridge for a
fleeting chance of precipitation into Saturday across the north.
High pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week with continued
warm and dry conditions, as well as a light offshore boundary
layer wind pattern. The broad ridge axis moves east of California
on Tuesday with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore
winds. The GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic
frontal system impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.
JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog this
morning in the Valley, and may redevelop Wednesday morning. Light
winds <10 kt will continue across Valley TAF sites.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 091721
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
921 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has shifted just E of our CWA and
is oriented from B.C. into the Great Basin. The NAEFS climate
height percentiles and mean temp return intervals indicating a
30(+) year max of values has also shifted Ewd with the signals
suggesting the Srn portion of our CWA will have the best shot of
flirting with record max temps today. The lack of warming Nly
winds over the Nrn Sac Vly overnite...unlike last nite...has
resulted in cooler temps...and in RDD`s case a difference of
-22 from yesterday at 14z!

The probability of exceedance tool using the bias consensus of models
also reveals a similar finding and is included in parenthesis in the
record table below. The percentages show the probability of attaining
a record max today.

Record highs for today...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

After the early images from VIS Sat imagery...it appears the fog patch
around KMOD will not expand Nwd and will erode/mix out around 10 am or
so.

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive anomalies
weaken the for the rest of the week...but may return to the Srn
half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley each night, mainly from around the Yuba City
area southward.

Morning models and current satellite trends suggest that some cloud cover
from the system just offshore will survive encountering the ridge and spread
into the CWA late tonight and Wed. The clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second wave
encounters the ridge. Will continue to look at this for the afternoon
packages.   JHM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

A faltering trough temporarily breaks down the ridge for a
fleeting chance of precipitation into Saturday across the north.
High pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week with continued
warm and dry conditions, as well as a light offshore boundary
layer wind pattern. The broad ridge axis moves east of California
on Tuesday with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore
winds. The GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic
frontal system impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.
JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog this
morning in the Valley, and may redevelop Wednesday morning. Light
winds <10 kt will continue across Valley TAF sites.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 091721
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
921 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridge/Omega Block`s axis has shifted just E of our CWA and
is oriented from B.C. into the Great Basin. The NAEFS climate
height percentiles and mean temp return intervals indicating a
30(+) year max of values has also shifted Ewd with the signals
suggesting the Srn portion of our CWA will have the best shot of
flirting with record max temps today. The lack of warming Nly
winds over the Nrn Sac Vly overnite...unlike last nite...has
resulted in cooler temps...and in RDD`s case a difference of
-22 from yesterday at 14z!

The probability of exceedance tool using the bias consensus of models
also reveals a similar finding and is included in parenthesis in the
record table below. The percentages show the probability of attaining
a record max today.

Record highs for today...
Redding Airport 78 set in 2006  (25%)
Red Bluff...... 78 set in 2006  (<5%)
Sacramento......73 set in 2006  (20%)
Sac Exec........72 set in 2006  (50%)
Stockton........71 set in 2006  (95%)
Modesto.........75 set in 2006  (15%)

After the early images from VIS Sat imagery...it appears the fog patch
around KMOD will not expand Nwd and will erode/mix out around 10 am or
so.

Temperatures will begin to cool a bit across NorCal during the
mid to late week as the ridge weakens and its axis shifts slightly
to our east. In spite of the cooling...max temps will continue above
normal for the rest of the week. The NAEFS positive anomalies
weaken the for the rest of the week...but may return to the Srn
half of CA early next week.

Some patches of late night and early morning fog will continue to
form in the valley each night, mainly from around the Yuba City
area southward.

Morning models and current satellite trends suggest that some cloud cover
from the system just offshore will survive encountering the ridge and spread
into the CWA late tonight and Wed. The clouds may thicken enough to produce
light precip/sprinkles over our Nrn Mtns Wed nite/Thu as a second wave
encounters the ridge. Will continue to look at this for the afternoon
packages.   JHM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

A faltering trough temporarily breaks down the ridge for a
fleeting chance of precipitation into Saturday across the north.
High pressure rebuilds Sunday into early next week with continued
warm and dry conditions, as well as a light offshore boundary
layer wind pattern. The broad ridge axis moves east of California
on Tuesday with southwest flow aloft and boundary layer onshore
winds. The GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at a more dynamic
frontal system impacting NorCal next Wednesday into Thursday.
JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog this
morning in the Valley, and may redevelop Wednesday morning. Light
winds <10 kt will continue across Valley TAF sites.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




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