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000
FXUS66 KSTO 031055
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this morning. High pressure will build in from the
west today into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day
through Thursday. Northerly flow today...easterly at night in the
mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday afternoon. Some
patches of fog may be possible this morning thanks to the showers
in the valley yesterday helping to moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show
a gradually increasing threat of precipitation mid next week.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 13-17z. Northwest winds
gusting up to around 20 kt after 18z with Northeast winds
increasing overnight across Sierra.       JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 031055
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this morning. High pressure will build in from the
west today into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day
through Thursday. Northerly flow today...easterly at night in the
mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday afternoon. Some
patches of fog may be possible this morning thanks to the showers
in the valley yesterday helping to moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show
a gradually increasing threat of precipitation mid next week.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 13-17z. Northwest winds
gusting up to around 20 kt after 18z with Northeast winds
increasing overnight across Sierra.       JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 031055
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this morning. High pressure will build in from the
west today into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day
through Thursday. Northerly flow today...easterly at night in the
mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday afternoon. Some
patches of fog may be possible this morning thanks to the showers
in the valley yesterday helping to moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show
a gradually increasing threat of precipitation mid next week.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 13-17z. Northwest winds
gusting up to around 20 kt after 18z with Northeast winds
increasing overnight across Sierra.       JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 031055
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this morning. High pressure will build in from the
west today into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day
through Thursday. Northerly flow today...easterly at night in the
mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday afternoon. Some
patches of fog may be possible this morning thanks to the showers
in the valley yesterday helping to moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show
a gradually increasing threat of precipitation mid next week.
JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 13-17z. Northwest winds
gusting up to around 20 kt after 18z with Northeast winds
increasing overnight across Sierra.       JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 030501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this evening. High pressure will build in from the west
Tuesday into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day through
Thursday. Northerly flow will on Tuesday...easterly at night in
the mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday. Some patches
of fog may be possible Tuesday morning thanks to the showers in
the valley moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 10-17z. Scattered high
clouds and dry on Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to around 20 kt
Tuesday after 18z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 030501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this evening. High pressure will build in from the west
Tuesday into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day through
Thursday. Northerly flow will on Tuesday...easterly at night in
the mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday. Some patches
of fog may be possible Tuesday morning thanks to the showers in
the valley moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 10-17z. Scattered high
clouds and dry on Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to around 20 kt
Tuesday after 18z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 030501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this evening. High pressure will build in from the west
Tuesday into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day through
Thursday. Northerly flow will on Tuesday...easterly at night in
the mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday. Some patches
of fog may be possible Tuesday morning thanks to the showers in
the valley moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 10-17z. Scattered high
clouds and dry on Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to around 20 kt
Tuesday after 18z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 030501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
901 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Low pressure area is centered off the coast of Southern
California this evening. High pressure will build in from the west
Tuesday into Wednesday with warming temperatures each day through
Thursday. Northerly flow will on Tuesday...easterly at night in
the mountains will become mostly light by Wednesday. Some patches
of fog may be possible Tuesday morning thanks to the showers in
the valley moistening up the surface.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours.
Some morning fog possible in the Valley 10-17z. Scattered high
clouds and dry on Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to around 20 kt
Tuesday after 18z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 022328
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms into the early evening as
disturbance drops south...clearing skies overnight. Drier and
milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level disturbance near the bay area will drop south into
SoCal overnight. Instability north and east of this system will
keep a few showers and thunderstorms going south of interstate 80
and over the Sierra through about 8 pm. The activity will diminish
and skies will clear after this time with the loss of surface
heating and instability. Upper ridge will build behind this system
and maintain through the rest of the week with dry conditions and
warm temperatures. Highs in the valley will generally be in the
upper 60`s/low 70`s...5 to 10 degrees above normal. Fog will be
possible in the stagnate air-mass under the ridge during the
morning hours for much of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible and isolated Tsra possible through
around 03z this evening south of I80. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light northerly tonight. Some morning
fog possible in the northern San Joaquin Valley 10-17z. Scattered
high clouds and dry on Tuesday. North winds gusting up to around
20 kt Tuesday after 18z. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 022328
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms into the early evening as
disturbance drops south...clearing skies overnight. Drier and
milder weather returns Tuesday and continues through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level disturbance near the bay area will drop south into
SoCal overnight. Instability north and east of this system will
keep a few showers and thunderstorms going south of interstate 80
and over the Sierra through about 8 pm. The activity will diminish
and skies will clear after this time with the loss of surface
heating and instability. Upper ridge will build behind this system
and maintain through the rest of the week with dry conditions and
warm temperatures. Highs in the valley will generally be in the
upper 60`s/low 70`s...5 to 10 degrees above normal. Fog will be
possible in the stagnate air-mass under the ridge during the
morning hours for much of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Monday/Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible and isolated Tsra possible through
around 03z this evening south of I80. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light northerly tonight. Some morning
fog possible in the northern San Joaquin Valley 10-17z. Scattered
high clouds and dry on Tuesday. North winds gusting up to around
20 kt Tuesday after 18z. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 021839
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1039 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Scattered showers continue this morning with the best coverage
over the Sierra. Main forecast challenge today will be snow amounts
with convective bands over the Sierra. Snow levels are currently
around 5000 feet and expect snow amounts 2-4 inches above this
level with locally higher amounts with stronger convection.
Strengthening March sun will help melt snow off roadways between
bands. Updated forecast to raise Sierra precip amounts/chances
more in line with HRRR which will likely handle this convective
scenario better. Will maintain isolated thunderstorm threat over
the valley given 250 j/g of cape forecast by NAM Buf sounding.

.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible during the day. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light tonight.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 021839
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1039 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Scattered showers continue this morning with the best coverage
over the Sierra. Main forecast challenge today will be snow amounts
with convective bands over the Sierra. Snow levels are currently
around 5000 feet and expect snow amounts 2-4 inches above this
level with locally higher amounts with stronger convection.
Strengthening March sun will help melt snow off roadways between
bands. Updated forecast to raise Sierra precip amounts/chances
more in line with HRRR which will likely handle this convective
scenario better. Will maintain isolated thunderstorm threat over
the valley given 250 j/g of cape forecast by NAM Buf sounding.

.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible during the day. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light tonight.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 021839
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1039 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Scattered showers continue this morning with the best coverage
over the Sierra. Main forecast challenge today will be snow amounts
with convective bands over the Sierra. Snow levels are currently
around 5000 feet and expect snow amounts 2-4 inches above this
level with locally higher amounts with stronger convection.
Strengthening March sun will help melt snow off roadways between
bands. Updated forecast to raise Sierra precip amounts/chances
more in line with HRRR which will likely handle this convective
scenario better. Will maintain isolated thunderstorm threat over
the valley given 250 j/g of cape forecast by NAM Buf sounding.

.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high pressure
ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast. A mostly
clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with above
normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are expected
in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over the
mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in northern
San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a minimal
threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing the
potential mid to late next week.             JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the Valley the next 24 hours, with
scattered -SHRA possible during the day. For the mountains,
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Snow levels will be around 4000 ft. Across the Valley...south
winds 5-15 kt will become light tonight.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 021139
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a
minimal threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing
the potential mid to late next week. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR BR/FG possible from KSMF southward during the
morning hours, but mid to high clouds overhead may limit fog
intensity to patchy ground fog. Potential scattered showers today,
but confidence low at TAF sites. Better chance for showers across
the mountains with snow levels 040-050. Wind direction will change
from breezy SE-SW winds this morn/aftn to light NW-N by evening as
low moves south. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 021139
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a
minimal threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing
the potential mid to late next week. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR BR/FG possible from KSMF southward during the
morning hours, but mid to high clouds overhead may limit fog
intensity to patchy ground fog. Potential scattered showers today,
but confidence low at TAF sites. Better chance for showers across
the mountains with snow levels 040-050. Wind direction will change
from breezy SE-SW winds this morn/aftn to light NW-N by evening as
low moves south. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 021139
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a
minimal threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing
the potential mid to late next week. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR BR/FG possible from KSMF southward during the
morning hours, but mid to high clouds overhead may limit fog
intensity to patchy ground fog. Potential scattered showers today,
but confidence low at TAF sites. Better chance for showers across
the mountains with snow levels 040-050. Wind direction will change
from breezy SE-SW winds this morn/aftn to light NW-N by evening as
low moves south. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 021139
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a
minimal threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing
the potential mid to late next week. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR BR/FG possible from KSMF southward during the
morning hours, but mid to high clouds overhead may limit fog
intensity to patchy ground fog. Potential scattered showers today,
but confidence low at TAF sites. Better chance for showers across
the mountains with snow levels 040-050. Wind direction will change
from breezy SE-SW winds this morn/aftn to light NW-N by evening as
low moves south. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 020602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow. Drier and
warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
A lingering shower in Tuolumne Co. finally dissipating as cyclonic
flow from the upper low affecting Socal weakens over the far Srn
portion of our CWA. Elsewhere...the flow is Nly as the upstream
short wave off the Pac NW Coast dives Swd. By 12z Mon...the effects
of cyclonic flow from the upper low affecting Socal will be relaxing
in our CWA and the energy from off the Pac NW coast dives Swd off
the CA coast on Mon. This system will not have as much moisture to
work with as this past one due to the drier Nly flow. AMSU TPW shows
just a few tenths PW off the W coast as the upstream short wave
dives Swd. However...as this system makes its way Swd on Mon the
flow will turn SWly and begin to tap the remnants of the Srn system.
AMSU TPW shows about 5 to 6 tenths TPW that should become entrained
into the SWly flow for the Mon system. Thus...most of the showers on
Mon should be influenced by upslope flow over the Siernev...with the
heaviest in zone 69 where a few tenths of an inch may fall.

Main short wave energy forecast to remain off the coast so the best
thunder chance could be confined to the coastal range...especially
Srn SFO Bay area in the afternoon...and then to a lesser extent over
the Siernev Foothills due to upslope flow and divergence aloft.
JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than yesterday
and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look to be
between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down to near
3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow levels
will start out near the lower end of those values and rise a little
in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Brief period of
MVFR to IFR BR/FG possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A
weak system will move through on Monday with the possibility of
scattered showers after 18z but confidence in coverage too low for
inclusion in TAFs. Better chance for showers across the mountains
with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise...clouds AOA 5 kft spreading Swd
over TAF sites on Mon as cold front moves Swd from the Pac NW.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 020602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow. Drier and
warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
A lingering shower in Tuolumne Co. finally dissipating as cyclonic
flow from the upper low affecting Socal weakens over the far Srn
portion of our CWA. Elsewhere...the flow is Nly as the upstream
short wave off the Pac NW Coast dives Swd. By 12z Mon...the effects
of cyclonic flow from the upper low affecting Socal will be relaxing
in our CWA and the energy from off the Pac NW coast dives Swd off
the CA coast on Mon. This system will not have as much moisture to
work with as this past one due to the drier Nly flow. AMSU TPW shows
just a few tenths PW off the W coast as the upstream short wave
dives Swd. However...as this system makes its way Swd on Mon the
flow will turn SWly and begin to tap the remnants of the Srn system.
AMSU TPW shows about 5 to 6 tenths TPW that should become entrained
into the SWly flow for the Mon system. Thus...most of the showers on
Mon should be influenced by upslope flow over the Siernev...with the
heaviest in zone 69 where a few tenths of an inch may fall.

Main short wave energy forecast to remain off the coast so the best
thunder chance could be confined to the coastal range...especially
Srn SFO Bay area in the afternoon...and then to a lesser extent over
the Siernev Foothills due to upslope flow and divergence aloft.
JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than yesterday
and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look to be
between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down to near
3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow levels
will start out near the lower end of those values and rise a little
in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Brief period of
MVFR to IFR BR/FG possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A
weak system will move through on Monday with the possibility of
scattered showers after 18z but confidence in coverage too low for
inclusion in TAFs. Better chance for showers across the mountains
with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise...clouds AOA 5 kft spreading Swd
over TAF sites on Mon as cold front moves Swd from the Pac NW.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 020602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow. Drier and
warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
A lingering shower in Tuolumne Co. finally dissipating as cyclonic
flow from the upper low affecting Socal weakens over the far Srn
portion of our CWA. Elsewhere...the flow is Nly as the upstream
short wave off the Pac NW Coast dives Swd. By 12z Mon...the effects
of cyclonic flow from the upper low affecting Socal will be relaxing
in our CWA and the energy from off the Pac NW coast dives Swd off
the CA coast on Mon. This system will not have as much moisture to
work with as this past one due to the drier Nly flow. AMSU TPW shows
just a few tenths PW off the W coast as the upstream short wave
dives Swd. However...as this system makes its way Swd on Mon the
flow will turn SWly and begin to tap the remnants of the Srn system.
AMSU TPW shows about 5 to 6 tenths TPW that should become entrained
into the SWly flow for the Mon system. Thus...most of the showers on
Mon should be influenced by upslope flow over the Siernev...with the
heaviest in zone 69 where a few tenths of an inch may fall.

Main short wave energy forecast to remain off the coast so the best
thunder chance could be confined to the coastal range...especially
Srn SFO Bay area in the afternoon...and then to a lesser extent over
the Siernev Foothills due to upslope flow and divergence aloft.
JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than yesterday
and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look to be
between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down to near
3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow levels
will start out near the lower end of those values and rise a little
in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Brief period of
MVFR to IFR BR/FG possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A
weak system will move through on Monday with the possibility of
scattered showers after 18z but confidence in coverage too low for
inclusion in TAFs. Better chance for showers across the mountains
with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise...clouds AOA 5 kft spreading Swd
over TAF sites on Mon as cold front moves Swd from the Pac NW.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 020602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow. Drier and
warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
A lingering shower in Tuolumne Co. finally dissipating as cyclonic
flow from the upper low affecting Socal weakens over the far Srn
portion of our CWA. Elsewhere...the flow is Nly as the upstream
short wave off the Pac NW Coast dives Swd. By 12z Mon...the effects
of cyclonic flow from the upper low affecting Socal will be relaxing
in our CWA and the energy from off the Pac NW coast dives Swd off
the CA coast on Mon. This system will not have as much moisture to
work with as this past one due to the drier Nly flow. AMSU TPW shows
just a few tenths PW off the W coast as the upstream short wave
dives Swd. However...as this system makes its way Swd on Mon the
flow will turn SWly and begin to tap the remnants of the Srn system.
AMSU TPW shows about 5 to 6 tenths TPW that should become entrained
into the SWly flow for the Mon system. Thus...most of the showers on
Mon should be influenced by upslope flow over the Siernev...with the
heaviest in zone 69 where a few tenths of an inch may fall.

Main short wave energy forecast to remain off the coast so the best
thunder chance could be confined to the coastal range...especially
Srn SFO Bay area in the afternoon...and then to a lesser extent over
the Siernev Foothills due to upslope flow and divergence aloft.
JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than yesterday
and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look to be
between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down to near
3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow levels
will start out near the lower end of those values and rise a little
in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Brief period of
MVFR to IFR BR/FG possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A
weak system will move through on Monday with the possibility of
scattered showers after 18z but confidence in coverage too low for
inclusion in TAFs. Better chance for showers across the mountains
with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise...clouds AOA 5 kft spreading Swd
over TAF sites on Mon as cold front moves Swd from the Pac NW.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 012221
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
221 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers/snow flurries along Sierra Crest today.
Dry elsewhere today with local breezy northerly winds over the
Northern Sacramento Valley. A second wave of wet weather arrives
Monday with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light
mountain snow. Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Some light showers will continue into the evening south of highway
50. Moisture continues to wrap around the low currently centered
well south of the area and back into the crest from Nevada.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than
yesterday and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look
to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down
to near 3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow
levels will start out near the lower end of those values and rise
a little in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Gusty
northerly winds in northern and western portions of the valley
will this evening into tonight. Brief period of MVFR to IFR BR/FG
possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A weak system
will move through on Monday with the possibility of scattered
showers after 18z but confidence of coverage too low for inclusion
in 00z TAF issuance. Better chance for showers across the
mountains with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise little more than some high
level clouds associated with this Monday afternoon/evening. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 012221
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
221 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers/snow flurries along Sierra Crest today.
Dry elsewhere today with local breezy northerly winds over the
Northern Sacramento Valley. A second wave of wet weather arrives
Monday with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light
mountain snow. Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Some light showers will continue into the evening south of highway
50. Moisture continues to wrap around the low currently centered
well south of the area and back into the crest from Nevada.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than
yesterday and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look
to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down
to near 3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow
levels will start out near the lower end of those values and rise
a little in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Little weather of note through the weekend as high pressure ridge
builds and remains in control off West Coast. Dry weather will
rule with above normal temperatures: daytime highs in the 60s to
70s in the valley and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear
skies and light winds are expected into the weekend. Patchy
morning fog may form in northern SJV and southern Sac valley. No
sign of rain until mid to late next week.
CEO


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period. Gusty
northerly winds in northern and western portions of the valley
will this evening into tonight. Brief period of MVFR to IFR BR/FG
possible again at KSCK during the morning hours. A weak system
will move through on Monday with the possibility of scattered
showers after 18z but confidence of coverage too low for inclusion
in 00z TAF issuance. Better chance for showers across the
mountains with snow levels 040-050. Otherwise little more than some high
level clouds associated with this Monday afternoon/evening. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 011740
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers/snow flurries along Sierra Crest today.
Dry elsewhere today with local breezy northerly winds over the
Northern Sacramento Valley. A second wave of wet weather arrives
Monday with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light
mountain snow. Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Some light showers/snow flurries will continue today along the
crest today as moisture wraps around the low currently centered
well south of the area and back into the crest from Nevada. Winds
will be out of the north today and be locally breezy over the far
north end of the valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than
yesterday and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look
to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down
to near 3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow
levels will start out near the lower end of those values and rise
a little in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period with mostly clear
skies. Gusty northerly winds up to 25kts possible today in
northern and western portions of the valley but should weaken this
evening into tonight. Early morning fog at KSCK burning off
quickly under full sunshine and should return to VFR in the next
few hours. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions possible there again
Monday morning. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 011740
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers/snow flurries along Sierra Crest today.
Dry elsewhere today with local breezy northerly winds over the
Northern Sacramento Valley. A second wave of wet weather arrives
Monday with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light
mountain snow. Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Some light showers/snow flurries will continue today along the
crest today as moisture wraps around the low currently centered
well south of the area and back into the crest from Nevada. Winds
will be out of the north today and be locally breezy over the far
north end of the valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than
yesterday and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look
to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down
to near 3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow
levels will start out near the lower end of those values and rise
a little in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period with mostly clear
skies. Gusty northerly winds up to 25kts possible today in
northern and western portions of the valley but should weaken this
evening into tonight. Early morning fog at KSCK burning off
quickly under full sunshine and should return to VFR in the next
few hours. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions possible there again
Monday morning. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 011740
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers/snow flurries along Sierra Crest today.
Dry elsewhere today with local breezy northerly winds over the
Northern Sacramento Valley. A second wave of wet weather arrives
Monday with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light
mountain snow. Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Some light showers/snow flurries will continue today along the
crest today as moisture wraps around the low currently centered
well south of the area and back into the crest from Nevada. Winds
will be out of the north today and be locally breezy over the far
north end of the valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Today the track of the low is centered further east than
yesterday and mostly over land as it drops south. Snow levels look
to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this storm but may be down
to near 3500 feet over parts of Shasta County Monday morning. Snow
levels will start out near the lower end of those values and rise
a little in the afternoon.

This system continues to looks weaker than the last one. What
looks like will happen is that as the system drops southward it
will interact with the low over Southern California and the
moisture that it is bringing up north and wrapping around into the
crest. Very little if any precipitation is expected over the
northern part of the CWA but along the crest several inches will
be possible with up to an inch of snow down to around 5000 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
valley.

A ridge will begin to build over the the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with dry and warm weather expected both days. Northerly
flow will occur both days...easterly at night in the mountains.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the TAF period with mostly clear
skies. Gusty northerly winds up to 25kts possible today in
northern and western portions of the valley but should weaken this
evening into tonight. Early morning fog at KSCK burning off
quickly under full sunshine and should return to VFR in the next
few hours. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions possible there again
Monday morning. CEO

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281643
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
843 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region. The main focus of
today`s shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the southern
half of the CWA...from around Oroville southward with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible to the north. The bulk of the
activity will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be producing
small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be on the
weaker side (non-severe).

Snow
levels will continue to be around 4000 feet today but in heavier
convective activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.
Thunderstorms may start to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon time period today. As the low shifts further to the
south late today and this evening the activity will shift further
south and focus on areas south of US-50. We could potentially get
up to 6 inches of new snow near the crest along I-80. Snowfall
amounts along highway 88 and areas to the south are expected to
pic up as the system shifts its focus to the south late this
afternoon and evening.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions with mid to high level cloudiness expected
across forecast terminals over next 24 hours as upper low drops
south across central/southern CA today. Potential for isolated
aftn/evening thunderstorms with small hail. Have continued PROB30
group to cover this with low confidence of occurrence at any one
site. Winds will generally remain in the 5 to 10 kt range with a
few locally higher gusts. Dry weather and partially clearing skies
expected later overnight into Sunday as system moves south.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281643
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
843 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region. The main focus of
today`s shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the southern
half of the CWA...from around Oroville southward with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible to the north. The bulk of the
activity will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be producing
small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be on the
weaker side (non-severe).

Snow
levels will continue to be around 4000 feet today but in heavier
convective activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.
Thunderstorms may start to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon time period today. As the low shifts further to the
south late today and this evening the activity will shift further
south and focus on areas south of US-50. We could potentially get
up to 6 inches of new snow near the crest along I-80. Snowfall
amounts along highway 88 and areas to the south are expected to
pic up as the system shifts its focus to the south late this
afternoon and evening.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions with mid to high level cloudiness expected
across forecast terminals over next 24 hours as upper low drops
south across central/southern CA today. Potential for isolated
aftn/evening thunderstorms with small hail. Have continued PROB30
group to cover this with low confidence of occurrence at any one
site. Winds will generally remain in the 5 to 10 kt range with a
few locally higher gusts. Dry weather and partially clearing skies
expected later overnight into Sunday as system moves south.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








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