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000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevadas. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevadas. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291123
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
423 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Little overall change to the large scale pattern expected through
the end of the week as strong high pressure remains over the
western US. Moisture will continue to work its way into NorCal
from the south over the next several days continuing a chance for
mainly late day showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Deeper moisture over the area this morning is resulting in some
isolated showers across the region.

Temperatures will remain hot through the week though at least a
light to moderate Delta Breeze is expected to continue providing
some relief to portions of the valley.

Models are hinting at some weakening of the ridge by the weekend
as a weak trough develops along the west coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isold showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 291123
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
423 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Little overall change to the large scale pattern expected through
the end of the week as strong high pressure remains over the
western US. Moisture will continue to work its way into NorCal
from the south over the next several days continuing a chance for
mainly late day showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Deeper moisture over the area this morning is resulting in some
isolated showers across the region.

Temperatures will remain hot through the week though at least a
light to moderate Delta Breeze is expected to continue providing
some relief to portions of the valley.

Models are hinting at some weakening of the ridge by the weekend
as a weak trough develops along the west coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isold showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290413
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
913 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Very Warm to hot
afternoon temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day
bringing decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Cloud cover during the day and the delta breeze tonight are
helping to trend temperatures cool this evening. Moisture moving
up from the south may bring a few sprinkles overnight but for the
most part the atmosphere is stabilizing this evening. We will
continue to see some cloud cover over the region the next couple
days but there may be a little less during the afternoons that
will likely lead to temperatures being a little bit warmer than
today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon this
week near the crest. No major changes in the weather pattern is
expected this week for the region.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. TS over mountains Tue afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 282129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California
in the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners ridge and a
Gulf of Alaska trough. Mid to high level monsoonal moisture has
advanced back into interior northern California today as the dry
slot retreats further to the north. Energy rotating clockwise
through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will cycle through the
region today and into midweek producing an increased likelihood of
isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily over the Northern
Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra Nevada crest.
Precipitation will most likely fall as virga over the valley, but
some isolated sprinkles could reach the valley floor. Mosaic radar
already shows moderate convective activity pushing northward from
central California this afternoon. Cells have managed to produce light
precipitation (a few hundreths of an inch) according to mesonet
stations in central California.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Isolated SH/TS over Sierra this
afternoon, with slight chance moving into foothills and southern
Sac/northern San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue. Weak convective
could continue tonight w/ TS over mountains Tue afternoon. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California
in the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners ridge and a
Gulf of Alaska trough. Mid to high level monsoonal moisture has
advanced back into interior northern California today as the dry
slot retreats further to the north. Energy rotating clockwise
through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will cycle through the
region today and into midweek producing an increased likelihood of
isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily over the Northern
Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra Nevada crest.
Precipitation will most likely fall as virga over the valley, but
some isolated sprinkles could reach the valley floor. Mosaic radar
already shows moderate convective activity pushing northward from
central California this afternoon. Cells have managed to produce light
precipitation (a few hundreths of an inch) according to mesonet
stations in central California.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Isolated SH/TS over Sierra this
afternoon, with slight chance moving into foothills and southern
Sac/northern San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue. Weak convective
could continue tonight w/ TS over mountains Tue afternoon. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Monsoonal surge of clouds will bring a few thunderstorms and
showers to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase
in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little
cooler temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning except for some high clouds along the eastern edge of the
forecast area. Temperatures are once again mild, mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the region early this morning.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture beginning to
move back toward NorCal after retreating somewhat late Sunday and
overnight. WV imagery shows a large well-defined wave over
northern Baja that is forecast to move up into the vicinity of
Lake Tahoe tonight. Thunderstorms are once again developing over
SoCal and offshore early this morning, and appears this feature
may provide enough lift to generate some showers and even a few
thunderstorms continuing overnight tonight as it approaches. By
later Tuesday, looks like convective activity will mainly return
to its normal diurnal cycle over the mountains.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the
strong ridge persists over the western US. There will be minor day
to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine layer and
strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main theme will
remain hot.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
Delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Monsoonal surge of clouds will bring a few thunderstorms and
showers to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase
in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little
cooler temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning except for some high clouds along the eastern edge of the
forecast area. Temperatures are once again mild, mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the region early this morning.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture beginning to
move back toward NorCal after retreating somewhat late Sunday and
overnight. WV imagery shows a large well-defined wave over
northern Baja that is forecast to move up into the vicinity of
Lake Tahoe tonight. Thunderstorms are once again developing over
SoCal and offshore early this morning, and appears this feature
may provide enough lift to generate some showers and even a few
thunderstorms continuing overnight tonight as it approaches. By
later Tuesday, looks like convective activity will mainly return
to its normal diurnal cycle over the mountains.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the
strong ridge persists over the western US. There will be minor day
to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine layer and
strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main theme will
remain hot.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
Delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 280501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1001 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and isolated
thunderstorms to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The
increase in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a
little cooler temps for the Central Valley the next few days.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Mid-level monsoon moisture continues to increase this evening with
preciptable water values approaching 1.00 inches. Skies are partly
cloudy and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle over southern areas
as debris cloudiness from southern Sierra thunderstorms moves
north after midnight. Weak delta breeze not offering much cooling
with temperatures similar to 24 hrs ago. Current forecast is on
track and no evening update will be needed.

.Discussion...
Band of clouds along the western edge of the monsoon surge of mid
and upper-level moisture continues to move up from the south
through the middle portion of the forecast area. Virga and a few
sprinkles have been occurring with some of the deeper convection,
but so far thunderstorm activity along the band has remained
along the coast or offshore to the south and southwest of the Bay
Area. A few storms have begun to develop over the northern Sierra
to the south of Lake Tahoe at mid-afternoon.

Clouds have held temperatures down through much of the day through
the Central Valley, but readings are rallying at mid-afternoon as
more sunshine has peeked through and are now mostly in the 90s.
Looks like we`ll still end up shy of the century mark today in
Sacramento, but it may be close.

Tricky forecast the next few days with plenty of mid and upper-
level moisture remaining over the area with elevated instability.
Looks like the entrance region of the upper jet arcing over the
western US ridge will remain overhead, and any weak perturbations
coming up from the south may be enough to kick off a few showers
and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery shows a few stronger waves
to our south - one originating from the large thunderstorm complex
over SW AZ last night and another moving up the west coast of Baja
- that bear watching over the day or so. Latest timing of these
would place them up around the Sacramento area Monday night and
early Tuesday.

Temperatures will also be tricky depending on cloud cover (and the
strength of the Delta Breeze for the Sac region), but will likely
remain rather hot through at least the early portion of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near the Sand
Fire. Winds will remain below 10kt across Valley TAF sites. Near
Delta, SW winds 20 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 272151
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
251 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge bringing a few sprinkles and isolated thunderstorms
to portions of interior NorCal today, and this pattern will
continue into mid-week. The increase in clouds and return of the
Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler temps for the Central
Valley the next few days.

&&

.Discussion...
Band of clouds along the western edge of the monsoon surge of mid
and upper-level moisture continues to move up from the south
through the middle portion of the forecast area. Virga and a few
sprinkles have been occurring with some of the deeper convection,
but so far thunderstorm activity along the band has remained
along the coast or offshore to the south and southwest of the Bay
Area. A few storms have begun to develop over the northern Sierra
to the south of Lake Tahoe at mid-afternoon.

Clouds have held temperatures down through much of the day through
the Central Valley, but readings are rallying at mid-afternoon as
more sunshine has peeked through and are now mostly in the 90s.
Looks like we`ll still end up shy of the century mark today in
Sacramento, but it may be close.

Tricky forecast the next few days with plenty of mid and upper-
level moisture remaining over the area with elevated instability.
Looks like the entrance region of the upper jet arcing over the
western US ridge will remain overhead, and any weak perturbations
coming up from the south may be enough to kick off a few showers
and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery shows a few stronger waves
to our south - one originating from the large thunderstorm complex
over SW AZ last night and another moving up the west coast of Baja
- that bear watching over the day or so. Latest timing of these
would place them up around the Sacramento area Monday night and
early Tuesday.

Temperatures will also be tricky depending on cloud cover (and the
strength of the Delta Breeze for the Sac region), but will likely
remain rather hot through at least the early portion of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near the Sand
Fire. Potential TS over Coastal Range and Sierra south of hwy 50
late this afternoon to early evening. Winds will remain below
10-15 kt across Valley TAF sites. Near Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt
continue. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 272151
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
251 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge bringing a few sprinkles and isolated thunderstorms
to portions of interior NorCal today, and this pattern will
continue into mid-week. The increase in clouds and return of the
Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler temps for the Central
Valley the next few days.

&&

.Discussion...
Band of clouds along the western edge of the monsoon surge of mid
and upper-level moisture continues to move up from the south
through the middle portion of the forecast area. Virga and a few
sprinkles have been occurring with some of the deeper convection,
but so far thunderstorm activity along the band has remained
along the coast or offshore to the south and southwest of the Bay
Area. A few storms have begun to develop over the northern Sierra
to the south of Lake Tahoe at mid-afternoon.

Clouds have held temperatures down through much of the day through
the Central Valley, but readings are rallying at mid-afternoon as
more sunshine has peeked through and are now mostly in the 90s.
Looks like we`ll still end up shy of the century mark today in
Sacramento, but it may be close.

Tricky forecast the next few days with plenty of mid and upper-
level moisture remaining over the area with elevated instability.
Looks like the entrance region of the upper jet arcing over the
western US ridge will remain overhead, and any weak perturbations
coming up from the south may be enough to kick off a few showers
and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery shows a few stronger waves
to our south - one originating from the large thunderstorm complex
over SW AZ last night and another moving up the west coast of Baja
- that bear watching over the day or so. Latest timing of these
would place them up around the Sacramento area Monday night and
early Tuesday.

Temperatures will also be tricky depending on cloud cover (and the
strength of the Delta Breeze for the Sac region), but will likely
remain rather hot through at least the early portion of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near the Sand
Fire. Potential TS over Coastal Range and Sierra south of hwy 50
late this afternoon to early evening. Winds will remain below
10-15 kt across Valley TAF sites. Near Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt
continue. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271530
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
830 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge bringing a chance of sprinkles and isolated tstorms
to portions of interior NorCal today. A few tstorms expected in the
northern Sierra up to about Lake Tahoe later this afternoon. The
increase in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a
little cooler temps today for the Central Valley while the northern
Sierra and foothills will remain hot.

&&

.Discussion...
Poorly modeled feature off the coast SW of the Bay Area continues to
generate deep convection along the western periphery of the monsoon
surge of mid and upper-level moisture. Appears this feature may be
associated with the entrance region of the upper jet arcing across
the western US ridge, and has been persistently generating isolated
thunderstorms over the past 24 hours as it has moved northward from
off the SoCal coast. Lightning has been detected along the coast up
to around Monterey and offshore, and we just received a spotter
report of thunder from the Fairfield area.

Have updated forecasts for today to mention isolated thunderstorms
and sprinkles for about the western half of the forecast area. KOAK
12Z sounding shows the big moisture increase aloft along with decent
elevated instability, so only minor lifting of that layer needed for
deep convection. High bases above 15K ft so probably not going to
see much if any measurable precip. Focus of deep convection later
today shifts to the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe and far northern
mountains with the exiting wave.

Also lowered forecast Max T for today with update due to all the
clouds and the return of the Delta Breeze. Marine layer at Fort Ord
is around 1.5K ft, but 12Z KOAK sounding doesn`t indicate much into
the Bay Area yet so not expecting a big drop yet in the Delta and
south valley. Northern Sierra will remain hot today with partly
cloudy skies and little or no onshore influence yet, though enough
westerly component to the wind to hold most of the smoke from the
Sand Fire to the east of the Sacramento area.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Water vapor imagery loop shows mid level sub tropical moisture being
pull northward into northern California over the last 24 hours. Most
areas will see variable high clouds today with a slight increase in
higher elevation humidity but over all this moisture will have
little impact today. Upper level high pressure ridge over the
western U.S. will continue to bring in daytime highs several degrees
above normal for the next several days. Most valley locations will
see high temperatures topping 100 through at least Tuesday. Main
forecast issue, other than tracking smoke from NORCAL Fires, will be
afternoon mountain thunderstorm threat now that monsoon moisture has
made it into the region. Stability progs indicate enough instability
for a slight threat of Sierra crest thunderstorms mainly south of
Tahoe today. This threat will shift northward up the Sierra a bit on
Monday as southerly flow aloft continues but again mainly near the
crest with southeast flow aloft bringing better orographics on the
east side of the range. The Sierra Cascade thunderstorm threat will
continue on Tuesday slipping just a bit farther north. GFS and GEM
models hint at a weak ripple moving up the back side of the ridge
and through NORCAL sometime Tuesday or Wednesday and with this very
slight decrease in stability the afternoon thunderstorm threat could
spread to the mountains of Shasta county. Will need to watch for the
development and timing of this feature with timing likely to change
in subsequent runs having impact on Thunderstorm placement.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
Mid range models show a slight shift in the Western U.S. ridge to
the east by Thursday. This should bring the beginning of a very
minor cooling trend. The resultant southwest flow aloft will bring
more stable conditions for a decreased thunderstorm threat most
mountain locations. Have kept a slight threat of thunderstorms over
the northern mountains Thursday and Friday as models continue to
indicate the passage of minor ripples as they move through upper
southwest flow. A more pronounced southwest flow aloft should bring
drier air aloft and more stable conditions by next Saturday removing
the last of the mountain thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near
the Sand Fire. Winds will remain below 10-15 kt across Valley TAF
sites. Near the Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271530
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
830 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge bringing a chance of sprinkles and isolated tstorms
to portions of interior NorCal today. A few tstorms expected in the
northern Sierra up to about Lake Tahoe later this afternoon. The
increase in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a
little cooler temps today for the Central Valley while the northern
Sierra and foothills will remain hot.

&&

.Discussion...
Poorly modeled feature off the coast SW of the Bay Area continues to
generate deep convection along the western periphery of the monsoon
surge of mid and upper-level moisture. Appears this feature may be
associated with the entrance region of the upper jet arcing across
the western US ridge, and has been persistently generating isolated
thunderstorms over the past 24 hours as it has moved northward from
off the SoCal coast. Lightning has been detected along the coast up
to around Monterey and offshore, and we just received a spotter
report of thunder from the Fairfield area.

Have updated forecasts for today to mention isolated thunderstorms
and sprinkles for about the western half of the forecast area. KOAK
12Z sounding shows the big moisture increase aloft along with decent
elevated instability, so only minor lifting of that layer needed for
deep convection. High bases above 15K ft so probably not going to
see much if any measurable precip. Focus of deep convection later
today shifts to the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe and far northern
mountains with the exiting wave.

Also lowered forecast Max T for today with update due to all the
clouds and the return of the Delta Breeze. Marine layer at Fort Ord
is around 1.5K ft, but 12Z KOAK sounding doesn`t indicate much into
the Bay Area yet so not expecting a big drop yet in the Delta and
south valley. Northern Sierra will remain hot today with partly
cloudy skies and little or no onshore influence yet, though enough
westerly component to the wind to hold most of the smoke from the
Sand Fire to the east of the Sacramento area.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Water vapor imagery loop shows mid level sub tropical moisture being
pull northward into northern California over the last 24 hours. Most
areas will see variable high clouds today with a slight increase in
higher elevation humidity but over all this moisture will have
little impact today. Upper level high pressure ridge over the
western U.S. will continue to bring in daytime highs several degrees
above normal for the next several days. Most valley locations will
see high temperatures topping 100 through at least Tuesday. Main
forecast issue, other than tracking smoke from NORCAL Fires, will be
afternoon mountain thunderstorm threat now that monsoon moisture has
made it into the region. Stability progs indicate enough instability
for a slight threat of Sierra crest thunderstorms mainly south of
Tahoe today. This threat will shift northward up the Sierra a bit on
Monday as southerly flow aloft continues but again mainly near the
crest with southeast flow aloft bringing better orographics on the
east side of the range. The Sierra Cascade thunderstorm threat will
continue on Tuesday slipping just a bit farther north. GFS and GEM
models hint at a weak ripple moving up the back side of the ridge
and through NORCAL sometime Tuesday or Wednesday and with this very
slight decrease in stability the afternoon thunderstorm threat could
spread to the mountains of Shasta county. Will need to watch for the
development and timing of this feature with timing likely to change
in subsequent runs having impact on Thunderstorm placement.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
Mid range models show a slight shift in the Western U.S. ridge to
the east by Thursday. This should bring the beginning of a very
minor cooling trend. The resultant southwest flow aloft will bring
more stable conditions for a decreased thunderstorm threat most
mountain locations. Have kept a slight threat of thunderstorms over
the northern mountains Thursday and Friday as models continue to
indicate the passage of minor ripples as they move through upper
southwest flow. A more pronounced southwest flow aloft should bring
drier air aloft and more stable conditions by next Saturday removing
the last of the mountain thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near
the Sand Fire. Winds will remain below 10-15 kt across Valley TAF
sites. Near the Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 271144
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
444 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temperatures through the coming week but a slight
cooling trend after Tuesday. Daytime highs in the central valley
topping 100 through mid week. The Sierra crest will see a threat
of thunderstorms through much of the week with a chance of
thunderstorms over the northern mountains Wednesday.

&&

Discussion...
Water vapor imagery loop shows mid level sub tropical moisture
being pull northward into northern California over the last 24
hours. Most areas will see variable high clouds today with a
slight increase in higher elevation humidity but over all this
moisture will have little impact today. Upper level high pressure
ridge over the western U.S. will continue to bring in daytime
highs several degrees above normal for the next several days. Most
valley locations will see high temperatures topping 100 through at
least Tuesday. Main forecast issue, other than tracking smoke
from NORCAL Fires, will be afternoon mountain thunderstorm threat
now that monsoon moisture has made it into the region. Stability
progs indicate enough instability for a slight threat of Sierra
crest thunderstorms mainly south of Tahoe today. This threat will
shift northward up the Sierra a bit on Monday as southerly flow
aloft continues but again mainly near the crest with southeast
flow aloft bringing better orographics on the east side of the
range. The Sierra Cascade thunderstorm threat will continue on
Tuesday slipping just a bit farther north. GFS and GEM models
hint at a weak ripple moving up the back side of the ridge and
through NORCAL sometime Tuesday or Wednesday and with this very
slight decrease in stability the afternoon thunderstorm threat
could spread to the mountains of Shasta county. Will need to watch
for the development and timing of this feature with timing likely
to change in subsequent runs having impact on Thunderstorm
placement.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Mid range models show a slight shift in the Western U.S. ridge to
the east by Thursday. This should bring the beginning of a very
minor cooling trend. The resultant southwest flow aloft will bring
more stable conditions for a decreased thunderstorm threat most
mountain locations. Have kept a slight threat of thunderstorms
over the northern mountains Thursday and Friday as models
continue to indicate the passage of minor ripples as they move
through upper southwest flow. A more pronounced southwest flow
aloft should bring drier air aloft and more stable conditions by
next Saturday removing the last of the mountain thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except areas of smoke
near the Sand Fire. Winds will remain below 10-15 kt across Valley
TAF sites. Near the Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt continue.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 271144
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
444 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temperatures through the coming week but a slight
cooling trend after Tuesday. Daytime highs in the central valley
topping 100 through mid week. The Sierra crest will see a threat
of thunderstorms through much of the week with a chance of
thunderstorms over the northern mountains Wednesday.

&&

Discussion...
Water vapor imagery loop shows mid level sub tropical moisture
being pull northward into northern California over the last 24
hours. Most areas will see variable high clouds today with a
slight increase in higher elevation humidity but over all this
moisture will have little impact today. Upper level high pressure
ridge over the western U.S. will continue to bring in daytime
highs several degrees above normal for the next several days. Most
valley locations will see high temperatures topping 100 through at
least Tuesday. Main forecast issue, other than tracking smoke
from NORCAL Fires, will be afternoon mountain thunderstorm threat
now that monsoon moisture has made it into the region. Stability
progs indicate enough instability for a slight threat of Sierra
crest thunderstorms mainly south of Tahoe today. This threat will
shift northward up the Sierra a bit on Monday as southerly flow
aloft continues but again mainly near the crest with southeast
flow aloft bringing better orographics on the east side of the
range. The Sierra Cascade thunderstorm threat will continue on
Tuesday slipping just a bit farther north. GFS and GEM models
hint at a weak ripple moving up the back side of the ridge and
through NORCAL sometime Tuesday or Wednesday and with this very
slight decrease in stability the afternoon thunderstorm threat
could spread to the mountains of Shasta county. Will need to watch
for the development and timing of this feature with timing likely
to change in subsequent runs having impact on Thunderstorm
placement.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Mid range models show a slight shift in the Western U.S. ridge to
the east by Thursday. This should bring the beginning of a very
minor cooling trend. The resultant southwest flow aloft will bring
more stable conditions for a decreased thunderstorm threat most
mountain locations. Have kept a slight threat of thunderstorms
over the northern mountains Thursday and Friday as models
continue to indicate the passage of minor ripples as they move
through upper southwest flow. A more pronounced southwest flow
aloft should bring drier air aloft and more stable conditions by
next Saturday removing the last of the mountain thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except areas of smoke
near the Sand Fire. Winds will remain below 10-15 kt across Valley
TAF sites. Near the Delta, SW winds 15-25 kt continue.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 270524
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1024 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100
through at least Monday. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

Discussion...
Increasing mid-level moisture noted this evening with high clouds
moving into the area...as deep monsoon moisture moves over SoCal.
This will lead to isolated thunderstorms near the Sierra crest
Tomorrow...but dry Tonight. Weak delta breeze has developed
offering slight cooling delta/srn sac valley...where temps are
2-5 degrees cooler versus 24 hrs ago. Current forecast is on track
and no evening update will be needed.
.Previous Discussion...

Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east of
the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours. Near
the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 270524
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1024 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100
through at least Monday. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

Discussion...
Increasing mid-level moisture noted this evening with high clouds
moving into the area...as deep monsoon moisture moves over SoCal.
This will lead to isolated thunderstorms near the Sierra crest
Tomorrow...but dry Tonight. Weak delta breeze has developed
offering slight cooling delta/srn sac valley...where temps are
2-5 degrees cooler versus 24 hrs ago. Current forecast is on track
and no evening update will be needed.
.Previous Discussion...

Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east of
the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours. Near
the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 262327
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
427 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated aviation discussion for smoke tonight...

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100 this
weekend across the valley. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east
of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Updated Aviation...
VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours.
Downsloping winds tonight will likely bring some localized IFR smoke
into southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys after midnight.
Near the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 262327
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
427 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...updated aviation discussion for smoke tonight...

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100 this
weekend across the valley. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east
of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Updated Aviation...
VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours.
Downsloping winds tonight will likely bring some localized IFR smoke
into southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys after midnight.
Near the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 262155
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100 this
weekend across the valley. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east
of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours. Near
the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 262155
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
255 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal temps into next week. Daytime highs topping 100 this
weekend across the valley. The Sierra crest will see a threat of
thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week while storms spread
into the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the region this afternoon. High clouds,
marking the leading edge of another batch of monsoonal moisture,
are beginning to move into the southern portion of the forecast
area. Temperatures remain hot again this afternoon as the Delta
Breeze slumbers, ranging from the mid 90s to around 102 in the
valley at mid-afternoon.

Smoke from the Sand Fire burning east of Sacramento will likely
move into the Central Valley once again later tonight as easterly
drainage winds develop.

Strong high pressure will maintain its grip across the region
continuing hot weather for the interior of NorCal over the next
several days. A modest Delta Breeze is expected to redevelop this
evening, but with the marine layer still shallow and ragged off
the coast, it will likely only shave a few degrees off high
temperatures in the Delta and south valley the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture increasing
over SoCal and offshore. This moisture is forecast to work its way
northward during the next few days leading to an increase in
cloudiness across the region and an increasing threat of showers
and thunderstorms over the northern Sierra. Storms are expected to
be mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Sunday, then spread further north
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Stability progs show slight instability with some monsoonal
moisture over the Sierra cascade range and over the Shasta county
northern mountains on Wednesday as a small scale upper trough
clips the northwest portions of California. Upper flow transitions
to more southwest by Thursday so the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm threat will most likely shift to the north and east
of the forecast area. Southwest flow aloft should move any
thunderstorm threat to the north and east of the CWA Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours. Near
the Delta, SW winds 10-18 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





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