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000
FXUS66 KSTO 231711
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
911 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will begin to strengthen
today and then move into the West Coast Monday and Tuesday. Mild
weather expected for much of the week with above normal temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
Mid to high level clouds are spilling over a flat ridge of high
pressure. A few sprinkles may be possible in the mountains this
morning from mid level clouds. The clouds are expected to start to
thin during the afternoon for most areas.

High pressure ridge will amplify Monday through Wednesday and
temperatures will warm a little each day through mid week. Some
high clouds are expected to drift through the region the next
several days. Some patches of fog mainly south of Marysville and
in some mountain valleys may occur each of the next couple of
mornings but overall the northerly dry flow should help to
minimize the amount of fog each morning. The best chance of fog
will be in the San Joaquin valley.


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper ridge forecast to flatten over NorCal late in the week as
flow begins to break under the Gulf of Alaska blocking high. Still
some uncertainties on the timing of the onset of precip as the
initial system for later Friday into Saturday is forecast to be
rather weak as it moves into the mean ridge position. Another
weak system is forecast for Sunday with warm advection expected to
keep snow levels moderately high.

&&

.Aviation...

Northerly winds developing through the Central Valley as high
pressure rebuilds. General VFR conditions expected the next 24
hours with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Areas of MVFR conditions
redevelop in the Central Valley from near KMYV southward after
03Z Mon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 231711
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
911 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will begin to strengthen
today and then move into the West Coast Monday and Tuesday. Mild
weather expected for much of the week with above normal temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
Mid to high level clouds are spilling over a flat ridge of high
pressure. A few sprinkles may be possible in the mountains this
morning from mid level clouds. The clouds are expected to start to
thin during the afternoon for most areas.

High pressure ridge will amplify Monday through Wednesday and
temperatures will warm a little each day through mid week. Some
high clouds are expected to drift through the region the next
several days. Some patches of fog mainly south of Marysville and
in some mountain valleys may occur each of the next couple of
mornings but overall the northerly dry flow should help to
minimize the amount of fog each morning. The best chance of fog
will be in the San Joaquin valley.


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper ridge forecast to flatten over NorCal late in the week as
flow begins to break under the Gulf of Alaska blocking high. Still
some uncertainties on the timing of the onset of precip as the
initial system for later Friday into Saturday is forecast to be
rather weak as it moves into the mean ridge position. Another
weak system is forecast for Sunday with warm advection expected to
keep snow levels moderately high.

&&

.Aviation...

Northerly winds developing through the Central Valley as high
pressure rebuilds. General VFR conditions expected the next 24
hours with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Areas of MVFR conditions
redevelop in the Central Valley from near KMYV southward after
03Z Mon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 231212
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
412 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will begin to strengthen
today and then move into the West Coast Monday and Tuesday. Mild
weather expected for much of the week with above normal temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
Overnight, there was a large area of dense fog in the Central &
Southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley from about
10 pm last night until 3 am this morning. In the past hour, the
fog has quickly lifted and scattered out across much of our region
as north winds begin to develop and high clouds move over the
area. Thus, have canceled the Dense Fog Advisory.

High pressure is developing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and
will strengthen today into Wednesday as the ridge axis moves inland
over California. Expect fairly clear skies and mild weather as the
ridge dominates our weather pattern in the short term. Daytime
highs and overnight lows will be slightly to several degrees above
normal as we enter a warming trend. Valley highs will peak in the
low 60s today and then reach the upper 60s by Wednesday. Mountain
highs will go from the mid 40s to mid 50s today and warm about 10
degrees by Wednesday. North to easterly winds will develop today
with speeds generally on the light side. However, the western side
of the valley could get a little breezy this afternoon with gusts
ranging 10-20 mph.

The tricky part of the forecast will be early morning fog
development. We have kept patchy fog mentioned for the next
several mornings in the central valley and including mountain
valleys as overnight winds will be light. The ridge axis will be
very near or directly over our forecast area by Tuesday
morning. This increased subsidence aloft may help dense fog
development for portions of the valley as it traps moisture near
the surface and doesn`t allow it to mix out easily. Motorists
driving between midnight and sunrise should be aware that they
could encounter lowered visibilities while driving and be prepared
to slow down.  JBB


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper ridge forecast to flatten over NorCal late in the week as
flow begins to break under the Gulf of Alaska blocking high. Still
some uncertainties on the timing of the onset of precip as the
initial system for later Friday into Saturday is forecast to be
rather weak as it moves into the mean ridge position. Another
weak system is forecast for Sunday with warm advection expected to
keep snow levels moderately high.

&&

.Aviation...

Northerly winds developing through the Central Valley as high
pressure rebuilds. General VFR conditions expected the next 24
hours with SCT-BKN cirrus clouds, except for lingering areas of
MVFR and local IFR conditions in stratus and fog S of KSMF through
about 14Z. MVFR conditions redevelop in the Central Valley after
03Z Mon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 231212
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
412 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will begin to strengthen
today and then move into the West Coast Monday and Tuesday. Mild
weather expected for much of the week with above normal temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
Overnight, there was a large area of dense fog in the Central &
Southern Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin Valley from about
10 pm last night until 3 am this morning. In the past hour, the
fog has quickly lifted and scattered out across much of our region
as north winds begin to develop and high clouds move over the
area. Thus, have canceled the Dense Fog Advisory.

High pressure is developing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and
will strengthen today into Wednesday as the ridge axis moves inland
over California. Expect fairly clear skies and mild weather as the
ridge dominates our weather pattern in the short term. Daytime
highs and overnight lows will be slightly to several degrees above
normal as we enter a warming trend. Valley highs will peak in the
low 60s today and then reach the upper 60s by Wednesday. Mountain
highs will go from the mid 40s to mid 50s today and warm about 10
degrees by Wednesday. North to easterly winds will develop today
with speeds generally on the light side. However, the western side
of the valley could get a little breezy this afternoon with gusts
ranging 10-20 mph.

The tricky part of the forecast will be early morning fog
development. We have kept patchy fog mentioned for the next
several mornings in the central valley and including mountain
valleys as overnight winds will be light. The ridge axis will be
very near or directly over our forecast area by Tuesday
morning. This increased subsidence aloft may help dense fog
development for portions of the valley as it traps moisture near
the surface and doesn`t allow it to mix out easily. Motorists
driving between midnight and sunrise should be aware that they
could encounter lowered visibilities while driving and be prepared
to slow down.  JBB


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper ridge forecast to flatten over NorCal late in the week as
flow begins to break under the Gulf of Alaska blocking high. Still
some uncertainties on the timing of the onset of precip as the
initial system for later Friday into Saturday is forecast to be
rather weak as it moves into the mean ridge position. Another
weak system is forecast for Sunday with warm advection expected to
keep snow levels moderately high.

&&

.Aviation...

Northerly winds developing through the Central Valley as high
pressure rebuilds. General VFR conditions expected the next 24
hours with SCT-BKN cirrus clouds, except for lingering areas of
MVFR and local IFR conditions in stratus and fog S of KSMF through
about 14Z. MVFR conditions redevelop in the Central Valley after
03Z Mon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 230627
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1027 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Clearing skies and abundant surface moisture will cause dense fog
overnight through early Sunday morning. High pressure will build
back in late Sunday and much of next week.

&&

.Discussion... Dense fog with widespread visibility below 1/4
mile has developed over the central and southern Sacramento
valley. This is a challenging forecast since north winds are
expected to gradually increase overnight and the degree to which
this erodes the fog is in question. Since widespread dense fog has
already develop have issued a dense fog advisory for much of the
central and southern Sacramento valley. Have updated the forecast
to reflect current foggy conditions. Will take advisory through 10
am as north winds should sufficiently mix out surface moisture by
that time.

.Previous Discussion (Today through Tuesday)... Frontal system
has moved through Northern California. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours especially for the
mountains. Snow levels continue to be very high close to 8500 feet
but will start to lower as colder air advects into the region
through the afternoon. Not much in the way of snow accumulations
with this system with only a few inches expected for the higher
peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains tonight especially through
this evening and patchy fog developing over the southern CWA
valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Areas of dense Fog through Sunday morning with a mix of
LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will improve vis by
mid/late Sunday morning.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am pst sunday carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...motherlode...northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...northern san joaquin valley...
southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 230627
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1027 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Clearing skies and abundant surface moisture will cause dense fog
overnight through early Sunday morning. High pressure will build
back in late Sunday and much of next week.

&&

.Discussion... Dense fog with widespread visibility below 1/4
mile has developed over the central and southern Sacramento
valley. This is a challenging forecast since north winds are
expected to gradually increase overnight and the degree to which
this erodes the fog is in question. Since widespread dense fog has
already develop have issued a dense fog advisory for much of the
central and southern Sacramento valley. Have updated the forecast
to reflect current foggy conditions. Will take advisory through 10
am as north winds should sufficiently mix out surface moisture by
that time.

.Previous Discussion (Today through Tuesday)... Frontal system
has moved through Northern California. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours especially for the
mountains. Snow levels continue to be very high close to 8500 feet
but will start to lower as colder air advects into the region
through the afternoon. Not much in the way of snow accumulations
with this system with only a few inches expected for the higher
peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains tonight especially through
this evening and patchy fog developing over the southern CWA
valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Areas of dense Fog through Sunday morning with a mix of
LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will improve vis by
mid/late Sunday morning.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am pst sunday carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...motherlode...northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...northern san joaquin valley...
southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 230016
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Cloud cover decreasing and showers diminishing late this afternoon
and evening as ridge of high pressure starts building into the
area. Southerly winds turning to Northerly with the he strongest
winds are expected along the west side of the Sacramento Valley
Sunday. Fog expected to develop in the morning but northerly
winds may keep it from becoming widespread (confined more to east
side of valley and foothills). Visibilities should decrease after
midnight then improve by noon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 221704
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system is moving through Northern California is located
over the Northern San Joaquin Valley. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Areas of drizzle
have also been occurring this morning around the Sacramento region.
Snow levels continue to be very high close to 9000 feet but will
start to lower as colder air advects into the region this
afternoon. Not much in the way is expected in the way of snow
accumulations with this system with only a few inches for the
higher peaks expected.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the
Valley in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Light to moderate precipitation is impacting NorCal this morning
causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys in the valley.
Mountains will be obscured in precipitation and clouds.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate southerly
winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty conditions
across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Sierra gusts up to
60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 221704
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system is moving through Northern California is located
over the Northern San Joaquin Valley. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Areas of drizzle
have also been occurring this morning around the Sacramento region.
Snow levels continue to be very high close to 9000 feet but will
start to lower as colder air advects into the region this
afternoon. Not much in the way is expected in the way of snow
accumulations with this system with only a few inches for the
higher peaks expected.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the
Valley in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Light to moderate precipitation is impacting NorCal this morning
causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys in the valley.
Mountains will be obscured in precipitation and clouds.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate southerly
winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty conditions
across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Sierra gusts up to
60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 221253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
453 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California today with minimal snowfall.
High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
The advertised third and last weather system is currently moving
through NorCal. The wettest area has been Shasta county. Over the
past 6 hrs, the Redding airport has had just shy of 1 inch of rain
while the surrounding hills have had between 1.25 and 1.75 inches.
We have under forecast the rain amounts thus far over the Shasta
county area, but the widespread rain has shifted south over the
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains. Therefore, we
increased the rain amounts today. We are expecting some form of
convergence zone to set up later near and west of the Redding
area (as this is quite typical) later today as the breezy
southerly winds in the valley converge with the westerly winds
over the coastal range. Precip will continue to overspread the
area from NW to SE during the day. The swath of the heavier rain
should be in the Sacramento area and adjacent mountains by 630 to
700 am, then by 900 am in Modesto. The system is not very unstable
behind the front, so we expect some showery activity, but not
thunderstorms. Because of the warm nature of the system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet this
morning. As of 430 am, Sierra temps have been climbing over the
previous few hours.

The other factor with this system will be breezy to windy
conditions. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-30
mph with gusts as high as 45 mph with the strongest winds in the
northern and central Sacramento Valley, where we have issued a
wind advisory until 8 am. Mountain ranges will see sustained winds
20-40 mph with gusts upward of 40-50 mph, and 50-70 mph near the
Sierra crest. Hence, we also issued an advisory for the Sierra
generally above 6000 feet.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog is probable Monday and Tuesday mornings
with light winds and lingering moisture.        JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the Valley
in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...
Light to moderate precipitation is impacting much of NorCal this
morning causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate to strong
southerly winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty
conditions across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Valley
gusts from 30 to 40 kts expected through 16z. Sierra gusts up to
55-60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier. JBB


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 1 pm PST this afternoon west slope northern
Sierra Nevada...western Plumas county/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 8 am PST this morning central Sacramento
Valley...northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 221253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
453 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California today with minimal snowfall.
High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
The advertised third and last weather system is currently moving
through NorCal. The wettest area has been Shasta county. Over the
past 6 hrs, the Redding airport has had just shy of 1 inch of rain
while the surrounding hills have had between 1.25 and 1.75 inches.
We have under forecast the rain amounts thus far over the Shasta
county area, but the widespread rain has shifted south over the
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains. Therefore, we
increased the rain amounts today. We are expecting some form of
convergence zone to set up later near and west of the Redding
area (as this is quite typical) later today as the breezy
southerly winds in the valley converge with the westerly winds
over the coastal range. Precip will continue to overspread the
area from NW to SE during the day. The swath of the heavier rain
should be in the Sacramento area and adjacent mountains by 630 to
700 am, then by 900 am in Modesto. The system is not very unstable
behind the front, so we expect some showery activity, but not
thunderstorms. Because of the warm nature of the system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet this
morning. As of 430 am, Sierra temps have been climbing over the
previous few hours.

The other factor with this system will be breezy to windy
conditions. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-30
mph with gusts as high as 45 mph with the strongest winds in the
northern and central Sacramento Valley, where we have issued a
wind advisory until 8 am. Mountain ranges will see sustained winds
20-40 mph with gusts upward of 40-50 mph, and 50-70 mph near the
Sierra crest. Hence, we also issued an advisory for the Sierra
generally above 6000 feet.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog is probable Monday and Tuesday mornings
with light winds and lingering moisture.        JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the Valley
in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...
Light to moderate precipitation is impacting much of NorCal this
morning causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate to strong
southerly winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty
conditions across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Valley
gusts from 30 to 40 kts expected through 16z. Sierra gusts up to
55-60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier. JBB


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 1 pm PST this afternoon west slope northern
Sierra Nevada...western Plumas county/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 8 am PST this morning central Sacramento
Valley...northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 212314
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
314 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase after 06z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 212314
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
314 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase after 06z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212259
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
259 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&

.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 211222
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
422 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak. Breezy valley
winds and strong high level winds will develop today.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...
A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta.
Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon. The next
wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later today with
the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will bring
widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds will
increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 211222
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
422 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak. Breezy valley
winds and strong high level winds will develop today.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...
A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta.
Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon. The next
wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later today with
the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will bring
widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds will
increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 210541
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Weather systems continue to move through NorCal into Saturday
bringing periods of precipitation. The second system is expected
to be the wettest Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Discussion...

Upper trof axis has rapidly moved E of the CWA with the vort max
digging well S of the area as well. Behind the trof axis...
subsidence may be strong to allow for some partial clearing over the
Wrn portion of the CWA...which will only lead to the formation of
dense fog beneath the subsidence inversion. So in the evening update
we tweaked the overnite wording for areas of F+ and OCNL -DZ in the
Central Valley. Lingering light showers may continue for a few more
hours over the W slopes Siernev due to lingering cyclonic flow.
  JHM

.Previous Discussion...

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal late Friday night
and Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with Pwat values
1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from .10-.50 for
valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains. Snow levels will be
high with this warm system starting around 6500 feet...but rising to
7500 feet through Saturday night. Only an inch or two of snow will
fall at highest elevations.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday with drying
conditions. Temperatures will remain near normal.


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry conditions expected early next week as upper level ridging
builds over the area. Temperatures are tricky, as lingering
moisture and clearing skies with light wind will allow for fog to
develop at times.

Mid to late next week has become a little more consistent, with the
ECMWF backing off from earlier suggestions of a trough passing
through on Wednesday. This is more in line with the GFS and GEM
models, so have trended drier with forecast. This makes sense as
ridge will probably be slow to break down. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Precip winding down over interior Norcal...but any partial clearing
after the upper trof passage moves-by will lead to widespread ST/F+
which will be slow to lift Fri morning. IFR/LIFR conditions will be
widespread with MTNS OBSCD. Pac front will begin to spread rain into
interior Norcal by Fri afternoon N of I-80...and then into the I-80
and US-50 corridor around 22//00Z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 210541
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Weather systems continue to move through NorCal into Saturday
bringing periods of precipitation. The second system is expected
to be the wettest Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Discussion...

Upper trof axis has rapidly moved E of the CWA with the vort max
digging well S of the area as well. Behind the trof axis...
subsidence may be strong to allow for some partial clearing over the
Wrn portion of the CWA...which will only lead to the formation of
dense fog beneath the subsidence inversion. So in the evening update
we tweaked the overnite wording for areas of F+ and OCNL -DZ in the
Central Valley. Lingering light showers may continue for a few more
hours over the W slopes Siernev due to lingering cyclonic flow.
  JHM

.Previous Discussion...

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal late Friday night
and Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with Pwat values
1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from .10-.50 for
valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains. Snow levels will be
high with this warm system starting around 6500 feet...but rising to
7500 feet through Saturday night. Only an inch or two of snow will
fall at highest elevations.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday with drying
conditions. Temperatures will remain near normal.


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry conditions expected early next week as upper level ridging
builds over the area. Temperatures are tricky, as lingering
moisture and clearing skies with light wind will allow for fog to
develop at times.

Mid to late next week has become a little more consistent, with the
ECMWF backing off from earlier suggestions of a trough passing
through on Wednesday. This is more in line with the GFS and GEM
models, so have trended drier with forecast. This makes sense as
ridge will probably be slow to break down. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Precip winding down over interior Norcal...but any partial clearing
after the upper trof passage moves-by will lead to widespread ST/F+
which will be slow to lift Fri morning. IFR/LIFR conditions will be
widespread with MTNS OBSCD. Pac front will begin to spread rain into
interior Norcal by Fri afternoon N of I-80...and then into the I-80
and US-50 corridor around 22//00Z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 202332
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
332 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Weather systems continue to move through NorCal into Saturday
bringing periods of precipitation. The second system is expected
to be the wettest Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Discussion... Rain band progressing east through NorCal late
this afternoon. Band will shift east over the Sierra by
sunset...with activity becoming more showery in nature. Snow
levels are currently above 6000 feet and expect them to fall to
5000 feet during the evening hours. 1 to 2 inches of snow is
expected near pass level. Highways over the Sierra will likely
become icy above 5000 feet after sunset...up to 4 inches could
fall over the highest peaks. Rainfall amounts for the valleys
should be in the 0.20-0.50 range.

Breaks in the cloudiness or clearing is looking more likely after
midnight which will lead to patchy fog or dense fog...especially
over the southern Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal late Friday
night and Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with Pwat
values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from .10-.50
for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains. Snow levels
will be high with this warm system starting around 6500 feet...but
rising to 7500 feet through Saturday night. Only an inch or two of
snow will fall at highest elevations.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday with drying
conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry conditions expected early next week as upper level ridging
builds over the area. Temperatures are tricky, as lingering
moisture and clearing skies with light wind will allow for fog to
develop at times.

Mid to late next week has become a little more consistent, with the
ECMWF backing off from earlier suggestions of a trough passing
through on Wednesday. This is more in line with the GFS and GEM
models, so have trended drier with forecast. This makes sense as
ridge will probably be slow to break down. EK

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. A second wave of
weather will spread precip into interior Norcal after 15Z Thu and
spread SEwd into the I-80 corridor after 18Z Thu. Widespread
MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys spreading across NorCal.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








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