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000
FXUS66 KSTO 021017
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY LASSEN, PLUMAS, BUTTE AND SIERRA COUNTIES. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LINGERING AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS S CA...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z TODAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AND NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SIERRA THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
SIERRA CREST AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. BEYOND
TONIGHT, MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND UPPER
LOW OFF THE BC COAST AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OFF CA COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERIOR NORCAL. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S IN THE VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP INFLUENCED AREA TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 021017
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY LASSEN, PLUMAS, BUTTE AND SIERRA COUNTIES. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LINGERING AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS S CA...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z TODAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AND NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SIERRA THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
SIERRA CREST AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. BEYOND
TONIGHT, MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND UPPER
LOW OFF THE BC COAST AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OFF CA COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERIOR NORCAL. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S IN THE VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP INFLUENCED AREA TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 012202
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS BTWN
20Z-04Z. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 012202
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS BTWN
20Z-04Z. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 011028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A
COOLING AIRMASS AND INCREASING DELTA BREEZE. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE LEFT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST RIDE AND WILL SEE IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW RETURNS OVER SHASTA COUNTY THOUGH. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NORTH. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WET THAN
FRIDAY BUT ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN GIVEN DRY FUEL STATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES MORE FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTING EAST. STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INFLUENCED AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT FOCUS
MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MORE STABLE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS AREA
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE
OF SIERRA CREST ALTHO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON MONDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL!
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS, MAINLY
20Z-03Z SUN. SWLY WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z
SUN. ELSW, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20
KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT 23Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 011028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A
COOLING AIRMASS AND INCREASING DELTA BREEZE. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE LEFT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST RIDE AND WILL SEE IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW RETURNS OVER SHASTA COUNTY THOUGH. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NORTH. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WET THAN
FRIDAY BUT ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN GIVEN DRY FUEL STATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES MORE FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTING EAST. STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INFLUENCED AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT FOCUS
MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MORE STABLE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS AREA
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE
OF SIERRA CREST ALTHO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON MONDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL!
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS, MAINLY
20Z-03Z SUN. SWLY WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z
SUN. ELSW, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20
KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT 23Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 312233
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
333 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE
DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH THE
MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MNLY VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN TSTMS...MNLY
OMTNS. GSTY SWLY SFC WNDS THRU DELTA AND VCNTY OF TSTMS.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 312233
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
333 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE
DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH THE
MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MNLY VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN TSTMS...MNLY
OMTNS. GSTY SWLY SFC WNDS THRU DELTA AND VCNTY OF TSTMS.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311712
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1012 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
BRINGING SOME LOCAL PRECIPITATION. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOTHERLODE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. SO FAR HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN ROSEVILLE AND EL DORADO SPRINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE TEMEPRATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EK

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 311712
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1012 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
BRINGING SOME LOCAL PRECIPITATION. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOTHERLODE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. SO FAR HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN ROSEVILLE AND EL DORADO SPRINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE TEMEPRATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EK

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311712
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1012 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
BRINGING SOME LOCAL PRECIPITATION. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOTHERLODE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. SO FAR HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN ROSEVILLE AND EL DORADO SPRINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE TEMEPRATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EK

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311712
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1012 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
BRINGING SOME LOCAL PRECIPITATION. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD
SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOTHERLODE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. SO FAR HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN ROSEVILLE AND EL DORADO SPRINGS. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER UP A LITTLE TEMEPRATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EK

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 310958
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
258 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 310958
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
258 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 310958
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
258 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BROUGHT ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS. CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE DELTA...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND
NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS TODAY THANKS TO A DELTA BREEZE WHICH
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP AN INCH MOST OF
THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN TUOLUMNE COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HIGH PW
CONTENT SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN
RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA BREEZE WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE
SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA
CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MAINLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST IN
THE FLOW BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THERE`S A SMALL CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH DRY
FORECAST. TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 310350
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
850 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH
THE SIERRAS AND COASTAL RANGE ARE SLOWLY DECAYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY ARE
RUNNING IDENTIAL TO LAST NIGHT WHILE DEW POINTS ARE UP ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES. THANKS TO THE DELTA BREEZE, LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD ARE
NOTICIBLY COOLER WITH THE SACRAMENTO AREA EXPERIENCING THE LARGEST
24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF 10 TO 12 DEGREES. THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND NO CHANGES HAS BEEN MADE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 310350
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
850 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH
THE SIERRAS AND COASTAL RANGE ARE SLOWLY DECAYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY ARE
RUNNING IDENTIAL TO LAST NIGHT WHILE DEW POINTS ARE UP ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES. THANKS TO THE DELTA BREEZE, LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD ARE
NOTICIBLY COOLER WITH THE SACRAMENTO AREA EXPERIENCING THE LARGEST
24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF 10 TO 12 DEGREES. THE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND NO CHANGES HAS BEEN MADE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302301
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302301
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 302301
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302301
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SLOW COOLING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BROUGHT ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH A DELTA BREEZE
BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DELTA, THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN, WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS 3 TO 7
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE COOLING IN
THOSE AREAS AS THE DELTA BREEZES INCREASES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
MOUNTAINS ARE PEAKING IN HEAT TODAY. REDDING AIRPORT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST HIGH OF 111, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD OF
110 SET IN 1991. THERE WILL BE A MORE GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA, WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA AND THE
COASTAL RANGE AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND THE BURNEY BASIN, THE REST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME DIMINISHING
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTING STRIKES IN THE
COASTAL RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE STARTED SOME FOREST
FIRES. THIS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
DRIER STORMS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE.

ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE EASTERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 301628
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
928 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING SCATTERED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A STRONGER DELTA BREEZE THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS AT
TRAVIS AFB CURRENTLY 26 MPH SUSTAINED. 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EVEN REDDING IS
RELATIVELY COOLER AT 87, COMPARED TO 92 YESTERDAY. MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO WARM, THOUGH, AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL BE END UP BEING A LITTLE HOTTER
THAN YESTERDAY, OR WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME/SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS SO FAR. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
IS FOR 112, ONE DEGREE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL WATCH TO SEE
HOW THINGS TREND THIS MORNING AND WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

THERE IS A FORECAST TEMPERATURE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THE BULK OF THIS REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE COASTAL RANGE
AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INTO THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 301628
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
928 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING SCATTERED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A STRONGER DELTA BREEZE THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS AT
TRAVIS AFB CURRENTLY 26 MPH SUSTAINED. 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EVEN REDDING IS
RELATIVELY COOLER AT 87, COMPARED TO 92 YESTERDAY. MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO WARM, THOUGH, AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL BE END UP BEING A LITTLE HOTTER
THAN YESTERDAY, OR WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME/SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS SO FAR. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
IS FOR 112, ONE DEGREE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL WATCH TO SEE
HOW THINGS TREND THIS MORNING AND WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

THERE IS A FORECAST TEMPERATURE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THE BULK OF THIS REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE COASTAL RANGE
AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INTO THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 301628
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
928 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING SCATTERED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A STRONGER DELTA BREEZE THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS AT
TRAVIS AFB CURRENTLY 26 MPH SUSTAINED. 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EVEN REDDING IS
RELATIVELY COOLER AT 87, COMPARED TO 92 YESTERDAY. MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO WARM, THOUGH, AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL BE END UP BEING A LITTLE HOTTER
THAN YESTERDAY, OR WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME/SLIGHTLY COOLER. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS SO FAR. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
IS FOR 112, ONE DEGREE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL WATCH TO SEE
HOW THINGS TREND THIS MORNING AND WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

THERE IS A FORECAST TEMPERATURE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THE BULK OF THIS REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE COASTAL RANGE
AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLY AND SADDLE CAMP. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INTO THE WEEKEND. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONE MORE DAY OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF THE CREST...ENDING
THE CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AS AIRMASS COOLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TAF SITES. POSSIBLE LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS NEAR CURRENT FIRES DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15 KTS FOR TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
INVOF DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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