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000
FXUS66 KSTO 292253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
353 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT, THUNDERSTORM, AND FIRE CONCERNS THIS WEEK FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO NORCAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HEAT: HOTTEST DAYS THIS WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100-115 DEGREES DURING THIS WINDOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
RANGING 75 TO 80. BECAUSE THIS HEAT CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WHICH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TUESDAY, THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECTS OF PROLONGED HEAT WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO METRO
REGION), THE HEAT WILL BE MORE OF A TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY EVENT SINCE
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BRING SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SIERRA
WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE VALLEY
STARTING THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

FIRE CONCERNS: VERY HOT WEATHER COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
AND VERY DRY FUELS HAS ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIRE STARTS AND FIRE
SPREAD. ANY FIREWORKS USED THIS WEEK WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
CONCERNS FOR FIRE STARTS.
JBB

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REDUCE DAY
TIME HEATING TO AN EXTENT, AS WELL AS SOME ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HOT OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, THOUGHMOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIIVTY IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE 18Z GFS IS HINTING AT SOME VALLEY
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK SO WILL KEEP THE VALLEY FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN EACH DAY. FURTHER
COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
AN INCREASING DELTA BREEZE, THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY/DELTA,
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO. EK

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KTVL
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVEING. LCL SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. EK
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 292253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
353 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAT, THUNDERSTORM, AND FIRE CONCERNS THIS WEEK FOR INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO NORCAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HEAT: HOTTEST DAYS THIS WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100-115 DEGREES DURING THIS WINDOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
RANGING 75 TO 80. BECAUSE THIS HEAT CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WHICH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TUESDAY, THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECTS OF PROLONGED HEAT WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO METRO
REGION), THE HEAT WILL BE MORE OF A TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY EVENT SINCE
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BRING SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SIERRA
WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE VALLEY
STARTING THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

FIRE CONCERNS: VERY HOT WEATHER COMBINED WITH LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
AND VERY DRY FUELS HAS ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR FIRE STARTS AND FIRE
SPREAD. ANY FIREWORKS USED THIS WEEK WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
CONCERNS FOR FIRE STARTS.
JBB

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP INTO THE REGION
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REDUCE DAY
TIME HEATING TO AN EXTENT, AS WELL AS SOME ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HOT OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, THOUGHMOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIIVTY IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE 18Z GFS IS HINTING AT SOME VALLEY
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK SO WILL KEEP THE VALLEY FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN EACH DAY. FURTHER
COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
AN INCREASING DELTA BREEZE, THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY/DELTA,
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO. EK

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KTVL
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVEING. LCL SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. EK
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291615
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
915 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS TODAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK IS THE VERY HOT WEATHER TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
WILL BE FOCUSING OUR MESSAGE ON HEAT IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SHASTA DAM, REDDING, AND RED BLUFF
VICINITY AS THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES OVER 110 DEGREES
FOR 3 DAYS IN A ROW. IN ADDITION, MONSOONAL MOISTURE, PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WILL BE A FIRE CONCERN AS IT COULD TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY IMPACT THE VALLEY ON THURSDAY SO WE MAY BE
ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS WE COORDINATE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. JBB

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER
UTAH. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 2K FT DEEP AND ONSHORE FLOW
IS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2-7 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 1-3 DEGREES OF
READINGS EARLY SUNDAY.

THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT THAT MANY AREAS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL END TODAY AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDING WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ACROSS NORCAL RESULTING IN DIMINISHED ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING
AIRMASS. VERY HOT DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER OVER NEVADA.

850 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30C AND THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE DELTA AND SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING A RETURN OF THE DELTA BREEZE.

DESPITE THE CONTINUING FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, LATE DAY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION IN THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

595 DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEPICTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING WEAKENING OVER NORCAL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS BECOMES
MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOW COOLING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER INTERIOR NORCAL WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED MVFR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA CREST BETWEEN 22Z-03Z
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LOCAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH THE DELTA DURING EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291045
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
345 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS TODAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER
UTAH. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 2K FT DEEP AND ONSHORE FLOW
IS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2-7 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 1-3 DEGREES OF
READINGS EARLY SUNDAY.

THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT THAT MANY AREAS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL END TODAY AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDING WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ACROSS NORCAL RESULTING IN DIMINISHED ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING
AIRMASS. VERY HOT DAYS ALONG WITH MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER NEVADA.

850 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30C AND THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE DELTA AND SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING A RETURN OF THE DELTA BREEZE.

DESPITE THE CONTINUING FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, LATE DAY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION IN THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
595 DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEPICTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING WEAKENING OVER NORCAL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS BECOMES
MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOW COOLING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLY FLOW ALF OVR INTR NORCAL WITH GENLY VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC
ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY WRN DELTA TIL 17Z IN ST AND NR SIERNEV CREST
BTWN 22Z-03Z IN TSTMS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS THRU DELTA
THIS MRNG.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291045
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
345 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS TODAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER
UTAH. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS AROUND 2K FT DEEP AND ONSHORE FLOW
IS CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2-7 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 1-3 DEGREES OF
READINGS EARLY SUNDAY.

THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT THAT MANY AREAS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL END TODAY AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO BEGIN EXTENDING WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ACROSS NORCAL RESULTING IN DIMINISHED ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING
AIRMASS. VERY HOT DAYS ALONG WITH MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER NEVADA.

850 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30C AND THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE DELTA AND SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING A RETURN OF THE DELTA BREEZE.

DESPITE THE CONTINUING FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, LATE DAY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARM. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION IN THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
595 DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY DEPICTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING WEAKENING OVER NORCAL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS BECOMES
MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOW COOLING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLY FLOW ALF OVR INTR NORCAL WITH GENLY VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC
ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY WRN DELTA TIL 17Z IN ST AND NR SIERNEV CREST
BTWN 22Z-03Z IN TSTMS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS THRU DELTA
THIS MRNG.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS MONDAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATE
NEEDED TO EVENING FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS
OVER THE SIERRA ARE RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE VALLEY, AND EXPECT WE/LL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST DELTA
BREEZE WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING SOME NICE COOLING.

BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, BUT MUCH HOTTER WEATHER
LURKS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 594
DM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CUT-OFF. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30C, SO WARMEST AREAS OF THE VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OUR WAY. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS IT WON/T IMPACT THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL, SO MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH IN S-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF I-80. AT THIS POINT, ACTIVITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING ANY GIVEN TIME. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT
AROUND 30-31C IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH 25-26C FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND UPPER 90S - LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DELTA BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BRING SLIGHT RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 290517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS MONDAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATE
NEEDED TO EVENING FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS
OVER THE SIERRA ARE RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE VALLEY, AND EXPECT WE/LL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST DELTA
BREEZE WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING SOME NICE COOLING.

BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, BUT MUCH HOTTER WEATHER
LURKS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 594
DM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CUT-OFF. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30C, SO WARMEST AREAS OF THE VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OUR WAY. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS IT WON/T IMPACT THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL, SO MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH IN S-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF I-80. AT THIS POINT, ACTIVITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING ANY GIVEN TIME. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT
AROUND 30-31C IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH 25-26C FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND UPPER 90S - LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DELTA BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BRING SLIGHT RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS MONDAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATE
NEEDED TO EVENING FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS
OVER THE SIERRA ARE RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE VALLEY, AND EXPECT WE/LL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST DELTA
BREEZE WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING SOME NICE COOLING.

BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, BUT MUCH HOTTER WEATHER
LURKS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 594
DM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CUT-OFF. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30C, SO WARMEST AREAS OF THE VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OUR WAY. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS IT WON/T IMPACT THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL, SO MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH IN S-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF I-80. AT THIS POINT, ACTIVITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING ANY GIVEN TIME. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT
AROUND 30-31C IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH 25-26C FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND UPPER 90S - LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DELTA BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BRING SLIGHT RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS MONDAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATE
NEEDED TO EVENING FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS
OVER THE SIERRA ARE RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE VALLEY, AND EXPECT WE/LL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST DELTA
BREEZE WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING SOME NICE COOLING.

BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, BUT MUCH HOTTER WEATHER
LURKS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 594
DM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CUT-OFF. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30C, SO WARMEST AREAS OF THE VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OUR WAY. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS IT WON/T IMPACT THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL, SO MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH IN S-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF I-80. AT THIS POINT, ACTIVITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING ANY GIVEN TIME. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT
AROUND 30-31C IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH 25-26C FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND UPPER 90S - LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DELTA BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BRING SLIGHT RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS. CEO


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 282150
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
250 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING RETURNS MONDAY, THEN VERY HOT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
THE STREAM OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS ONSHORE
FLOW WANED A BIT EARLIER TODAY, BUT MANY AREAS OVER THE SIERRA ARE
RUNNING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO DUE TO
THE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN THE
COAST AND THE VALLEY, AND EXPECT WE/LL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST DELTA
BREEZE WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING SOME NICE COOLING.

BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE VERY HOT WEATHER WILL END MONDAY AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, BUT MUCH HOTTER WEATHER
LURKS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 594
DM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS CUT-OFF. 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30C, SO WARMEST AREAS OF THE VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE MARK.

MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SPREAD BACK TO THE WEST AND THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OUR WAY. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS IT WON/T IMPACT THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL, SO MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH IN S-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF I-80. AT THIS POINT, ACTIVITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING ANY GIVEN TIME. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MAX OUT
AROUND 30-31C IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH 25-26C FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND UPPER 90S - LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE ANY HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DELTA BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BRING SLIGHT RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT DURING THE EVENINGS. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281600
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED MILD TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS DURING THE
WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE MOISTURE BAND IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF READINGS 24 HOURS AGO.

RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. THE CLOUD BAND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR GREATER SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY NOON. STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SIERRA/CASCADE CREST.

NO UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER
NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K
FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER STATIONS REPORTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY ADDED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP. HOWEVER, NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE CLOUDINESS ABOUT.
IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT
THAT SIGNIFICANT. THEREFORE, WE DISCONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO NORCAL
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
FARTHER NORTH UP THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
THESE SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL
THIS FAR OUT SO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
THREAT OF HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGE MORE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED THE MOST OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING...DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281600
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED MILD TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS DURING THE
WEEK. SOME SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE MOISTURE BAND IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF READINGS 24 HOURS AGO.

RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. THE CLOUD BAND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR GREATER SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY NOON. STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SIERRA/CASCADE CREST.

NO UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER
NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K
FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER STATIONS REPORTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY ADDED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP. HOWEVER, NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE CLOUDINESS ABOUT.
IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT
THAT SIGNIFICANT. THEREFORE, WE DISCONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE. JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO NORCAL
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
FARTHER NORTH UP THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
THESE SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL
THIS FAR OUT SO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
THREAT OF HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGE MORE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED THE MOST OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING...DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281248
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
548 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT. THEREFORE, WE
DISCONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH READINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 100
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.   JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH UP THE
SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED THE MOST OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY...THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE
COOLING...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EXCEPT FOR THE DELTA...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281248
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
548 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT. THEREFORE, WE
DISCONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH READINGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 100
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.   JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH UP THE
SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED THE MOST OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY...THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE
COOLING...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EXCEPT FOR THE DELTA...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281101
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME AFTERNOON
SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, MOSTLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH
READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.     JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH, UP
THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT, SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH, EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED MORE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY, THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN
AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281101
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME AFTERNOON
SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, MOSTLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH
READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.     JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH, UP
THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT, SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH, EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED MORE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY, THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN
AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281101
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME AFTERNOON
SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, MOSTLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH
READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.     JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH, UP
THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT, SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH, EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED MORE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY, THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN
AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281101
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT TODAY, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. SOME AFTERNOON
SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, MOSTLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW IS
ENHANCING CLOUDINESS OVER NORCAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE CLOUD BASES ARE ABOVE 15K FT AND WE COULDN`T FIND ANY WEATHER
STATIONS REPORTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WOULD BE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND ANY
ADDED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP.
HOWEVER, NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
CLOUDINESS ABOUT. IN THE END, NOT SO SURE WE`LL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAT WE HAD ANTICIPATED, AS THE
TRIGGER (INSTABILITY) IS JUST NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SIERRA THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY SOUTHWARD OF I-80 LINGERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL WITH
READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.     JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO NORCAL MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS...NORTHERN SIERRA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FARTHER NORTH, UP
THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE OR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RELY ON SOME SORT OF SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE
ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THESE SMALL
SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED WELL THIS FAR OUT, SO
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SIERRA. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SLIGHT THREAT OF
HIGHEST ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS IN OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TO COVER THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH, EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE MODELS HAVE
UPPER RIDGE MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
FORECAST AREA.

WITH RIDGE CENTERED MORE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY, THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE COOLING, DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR THE
DELTA, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN
AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 280517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EAST OF THE CREST THUS FAR.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
VALLEY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT MOST ANYWHERE WITH ADUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCE WORKING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM SOCAL. ONSHORE FLOW
IS KEEPING TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES
THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 280517
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EAST OF THE CREST THUS FAR.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
VALLEY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT MOST ANYWHERE WITH ADUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCE WORKING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM SOCAL. ONSHORE FLOW
IS KEEPING TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES
THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 272203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
303 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS
AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 272203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
303 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS
AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 272203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
303 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS
AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 272203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
303 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND IS
AROUND 2500 FT DEEP AT FT ORD AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
STRENGTHENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN EAST OF
THE CREST. BETTER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PIVOTS
NORTHWARD AROUND THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ABOVE ABOUT 500 MBS, SO BASES WILL BE HIGH AND ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR NORCAL
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET
DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN WARMING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, VERY HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORCAL AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US
EXTENDS WESTWARD WITH READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNER REGIONS
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES EXPECTED WITH
CENTRAL VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S AND NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS TOPPING OUT IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AS WELL
WITH NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS ONLY COOLING INTO THE MID 70S AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME HEAT IMPACTS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREPARE FOR
PROLONGED HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER SOME BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT AGAIN STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNS OF A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE, DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE S-SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271530
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
830 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS FOR NEXT
WEEK. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION... PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND
THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...THIS MOISTURE IS
MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MBS, SO DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
VERY HIGH BASES.

MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A TAD BIT OF SYNOPTIC COOLING (1-2 DEG
C) AT 850 AND 700 MBS AS THE RIDGE ADJUSTS EAST A BIT, SO ANY
COOLING INLAND AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAINLY BE FROM
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE MARINE LAYER HAS
INCREASED IN DEPTH TO ABOVE 2000 FT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING, SO COOLING OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE WILL OCCUR TODAY IN THE
DELTA BREEZE INFLUENCED AREAS.

NO UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...INFRARED
SATELLITE IS SHOWING ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LOW TO THE WEST IS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THE ALTOCUMULUS EQUATES
TO INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRESENT MOISTURE. THAT IS TWO
OUT OF THE THREE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE LAST ONE
BEING A TRIGGER. MANY TIMES, SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING CAN BE
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS A RESULT, OUR INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY TO GENERATE
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL DUE TO THE DRY LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MINOR TRIGGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THAT HAS A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT, SO WE EXPANDED THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WAVE PASSES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
ROUGHLY 5 TO 15F FROM FRIDAY (YESTERDAY), WITH THE GREATEST COOLDOWN
NEAR THE DELTA.

THE LOW BECOMES KICKED OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM LATE THIS
PAST WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST. VALLEY TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE BELOW RECORD LEVELS (STILL WELL INTO 100S), BUT FORECAST
HIGHS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE AT OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS. SOME
SIERRA NEVADA CONVECTION MAY BUILDUP SOUTHWARD OF PLUMAS COUNTY
AREA, SO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. JCLAPP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WESTWARD TO OVER NORCAL WILL BE
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH OROGRAPHICS AND DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS EACH DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND
NEAR 110 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED IN THE REDDING AREA. MODELS NO
LONGER REALLY SHOWING ANY REASON TO HOPE FOR A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDS
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD TO SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS FOR THIS WEEK.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INFRARED SATELLITE IS SHOWING ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LOW TO
THE WEST IS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THE
ALTOCUMULUS EQUATES TO INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRESENT
MOISTURE. THAT IS TWO OUT OF THE THREE INGREDIENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE LAST ONE BEING A TRIGGER. MANY TIMES,
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT, OUR INGREDIENTS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY TO GENERATE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL DUE TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MINOR TRIGGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT HAS A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT, SO WE EXPANDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WAVE PASSES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
ROUGHLY 5 TO 15F FROM FRIDAY (YESTERDAY), WITH THE GREATEST
COOLDOWN NEAR THE DELTA.

THE LOW BECOMES KICKED OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM LATE
THIS PAST WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW RECORD LEVELS (STILL WELL INTO
100S), BUT FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE AT OR NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. SOME SIERRA NEVADA CONVECTION MAY BUILDUP SOUTHWARD
OF PLUMAS COUNTY AREA, SO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.           JCLAPP

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WESTWARD TO OVER
NORCAL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICS AND DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS EACH DAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NEAR 110 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE REDDING AREA. MODELS NO LONGER REALLY SHOWING ANY REASON TO
HOPE FOR A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT AS HOT THIS WEEKEND, THEN HEAT RETURNS FOR THIS WEEK.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INFRARED SATELLITE IS SHOWING ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LOW TO
THE WEST IS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THE
ALTOCUMULUS EQUATES TO INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS AND PRESENT
MOISTURE. THAT IS TWO OUT OF THE THREE INGREDIENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE LAST ONE BEING A TRIGGER. MANY TIMES,
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT, OUR INGREDIENTS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY TO GENERATE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL DUE TO THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MINOR TRIGGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT HAS A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT, SO WE EXPANDED THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT VALLEY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WAVE PASSES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL ALLOW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
ROUGHLY 5 TO 15F FROM FRIDAY (YESTERDAY), WITH THE GREATEST
COOLDOWN NEAR THE DELTA.

THE LOW BECOMES KICKED OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE GREAT
BASIN RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM LATE
THIS PAST WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW RECORD LEVELS (STILL WELL INTO
100S), BUT FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE AT OR NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. SOME SIERRA NEVADA CONVECTION MAY BUILDUP SOUTHWARD
OF PLUMAS COUNTY AREA, SO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.           JCLAPP

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WESTWARD TO OVER
NORCAL WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICS AND DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS EACH DAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NEAR 110 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE REDDING AREA. MODELS NO LONGER REALLY SHOWING ANY REASON TO
HOPE FOR A COOL DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS NORCAL REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A LOW OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BURNEY BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF
NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND
PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS
PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF
WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1014 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...BUT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE LIGHTNING PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AROUND 20 CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES OBSERVED MAINLY JUST EAST OF BURNEY. IR SAT IS
SHOWING ALTO CUMULUS OVER THE NRN/CENT SAC VALLEY GENERALLY NORTH
OF SACRAMENTO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOT DAY
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MODERATE DELTA BREEZE SRN SAC VALLEY WITH
TEMPS COOLER TEMPS...STILL HOT NRN SAC VALLEY WITH 90`S REDDING
RED BLUFF. RECORD HEAT OCURRED OVER THE NRN VALLEY WITH RED BLUFF
HITTING 108. REDDING WAS JUST TWO DEGREES OFF AT 111 AND DOWNTOWN
SACRAMENTO MISSED BY 1 DEGREE WITH 105 AS THE HIGH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTAINING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS COMBINED WITH
PRIMED FUELS FROM RECENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE ISSUES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOISTEN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY SUNDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH
TO OFF SET LIGHTNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY JUST
SEE SOME SPRINKLES.

THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY WILL RETREAT SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE DELTA BREEZE KICKS
IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST DRAMATIC
COOLING WILL BE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DELTA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH READINGS BACK IN THE 90S. THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS WELL...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 100.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OVER NORCAL WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AFTERNOON MERCURY
READINGS FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 110 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. GUIDANCE SHOWING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND FLOW
THROUGH DELTA INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100.

PCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF AS UPR LOW NR 35N 127W MOVS N THRU SAT. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN ST VCNTY OF
DELTA BTWN 12Z-18Z SAT. SCT AFTN INTO EVE TSTMS POSS OVR MTNS WITH
ASSOCD STG GSTY SFC WNDS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSS
THRU DELTA TNGT INTO SAT.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BURNEY
BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY
INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF
THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1014 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...BUT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE LIGHTNING PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AROUND 20 CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES OBSERVED MAINLY JUST EAST OF BURNEY. IR SAT IS
SHOWING ALTO CUMULUS OVER THE NRN/CENT SAC VALLEY GENERALLY NORTH
OF SACRAMENTO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOT DAY
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MODERATE DELTA BREEZE SRN SAC VALLEY WITH
TEMPS COOLER TEMPS...STILL HOT NRN SAC VALLEY WITH 90`S REDDING
RED BLUFF. RECORD HEAT OCURRED OVER THE NRN VALLEY WITH RED BLUFF
HITTING 108. REDDING WAS JUST TWO DEGREES OFF AT 111 AND DOWNTOWN
SACRAMENTO MISSED BY 1 DEGREE WITH 105 AS THE HIGH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTAINING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS COMBINED WITH
PRIMED FUELS FROM RECENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE ISSUES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOISTEN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY SUNDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH
TO OFF SET LIGHTNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY JUST
SEE SOME SPRINKLES.

THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY WILL RETREAT SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE DELTA BREEZE KICKS
IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST DRAMATIC
COOLING WILL BE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DELTA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH READINGS BACK IN THE 90S. THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS WELL...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 100.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OVER NORCAL WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AFTERNOON MERCURY
READINGS FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 110 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. GUIDANCE SHOWING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND FLOW
THROUGH DELTA INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100.

PCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF AS UPR LOW NR 35N 127W MOVS N THRU SAT. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN ST VCNTY OF
DELTA BTWN 12Z-18Z SAT. SCT AFTN INTO EVE TSTMS POSS OVR MTNS WITH
ASSOCD STG GSTY SFC WNDS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSS
THRU DELTA TNGT INTO SAT.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BURNEY
BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY
INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF
THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1014 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...BUT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE LIGHTNING PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AROUND 20 CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES OBSERVED MAINLY JUST EAST OF BURNEY. IR SAT IS
SHOWING ALTO CUMULUS OVER THE NRN/CENT SAC VALLEY GENERALLY NORTH
OF SACRAMENTO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOT DAY
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MODERATE DELTA BREEZE SRN SAC VALLEY WITH
TEMPS COOLER TEMPS...STILL HOT NRN SAC VALLEY WITH 90`S REDDING
RED BLUFF. RECORD HEAT OCURRED OVER THE NRN VALLEY WITH RED BLUFF
HITTING 108. REDDING WAS JUST TWO DEGREES OFF AT 111 AND DOWNTOWN
SACRAMENTO MISSED BY 1 DEGREE WITH 105 AS THE HIGH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTAINING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS COMBINED WITH
PRIMED FUELS FROM RECENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE ISSUES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOISTEN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY SUNDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH
TO OFF SET LIGHTNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY JUST
SEE SOME SPRINKLES.

THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY WILL RETREAT SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE DELTA BREEZE KICKS
IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST DRAMATIC
COOLING WILL BE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DELTA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH READINGS BACK IN THE 90S. THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS WELL...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 100.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OVER NORCAL WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AFTERNOON MERCURY
READINGS FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 110 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. GUIDANCE SHOWING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND FLOW
THROUGH DELTA INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100.

PCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF AS UPR LOW NR 35N 127W MOVS N THRU SAT. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN ST VCNTY OF
DELTA BTWN 12Z-18Z SAT. SCT AFTN INTO EVE TSTMS POSS OVR MTNS WITH
ASSOCD STG GSTY SFC WNDS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSS
THRU DELTA TNGT INTO SAT.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BURNEY
BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY
INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF
THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1014 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...BUT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED RAINFALL CREATING AN
INCREASED FIRE THREAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF THE LIGHTNING PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AROUND 20 CLOUD TO
GROUND STRIKES OBSERVED MAINLY JUST EAST OF BURNEY. IR SAT IS
SHOWING ALTO CUMULUS OVER THE NRN/CENT SAC VALLEY GENERALLY NORTH
OF SACRAMENTO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOT DAY
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MODERATE DELTA BREEZE SRN SAC VALLEY WITH
TEMPS COOLER TEMPS...STILL HOT NRN SAC VALLEY WITH 90`S REDDING
RED BLUFF. RECORD HEAT OCURRED OVER THE NRN VALLEY WITH RED BLUFF
HITTING 108. REDDING WAS JUST TWO DEGREES OFF AT 111 AND DOWNTOWN
SACRAMENTO MISSED BY 1 DEGREE WITH 105 AS THE HIGH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SURGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTAINING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS COMBINED WITH
PRIMED FUELS FROM RECENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE ISSUES. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOISTEN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL BY SUNDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH
TO OFF SET LIGHTNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY JUST
SEE SOME SPRINKLES.

THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TODAY WILL RETREAT SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE DELTA BREEZE KICKS
IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST DRAMATIC
COOLING WILL BE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DELTA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH READINGS BACK IN THE 90S. THE NORTHERN VALLEY
WILL SEE SOME COOLING AS WELL...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 100.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

UPPER HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS OVER NORCAL WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
S-SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AFTERNOON MERCURY
READINGS FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 110 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. GUIDANCE SHOWING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND FLOW
THROUGH DELTA INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100.

PCH

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF AS UPR LOW NR 35N 127W MOVS N THRU SAT. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN ST VCNTY OF
DELTA BTWN 12Z-18Z SAT. SCT AFTN INTO EVE TSTMS POSS OVR MTNS WITH
ASSOCD STG GSTY SFC WNDS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSS
THRU DELTA TNGT INTO SAT.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BURNEY
BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY INCLUDING NORTHWEST
LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING LASSEN NP
AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (WEST OF
EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST-
STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR BURNEY BASIN AND NORTHEAST PLATEAU IN SHASTA COUNTY
INCLUDING NORTHWEST LASSEN NF NORTH OF LASSEN NP-NORTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING LASSEN NP AND PLUMAS AND LASSEN NF/S WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST (WEST OF EVANS PEAK-GRIZZLY PEAK-BECKWORTH PEAK)-
NORTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE TAHOE AND ELDORADO NF/S WEST OF
THE SIERRA CREST-STANISLAUS NF WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

$$




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