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000
FXUS66 KSTO 291630
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS REGION TODAY BRINGING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-80. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak system is moving through the region bringing cooler air and
a few showers to the interior. The system is now mainly over the
western slopes. A few showers may linger into the afternoon but
in general what is left of the system will be moving east of the
crest. Temperatures will be a lot cooler today down 15 to 20
degrees from yesterday. Highs will be in the 80s for the valley
and mainly in the 60s for the mountains. Clouds will clear from
west to east late in the day into the early evening hours.

The current trough over the region will lift northeast on Sunday
but another trough will drop down along the coast from Canada
early next week to help keep temperatures cooler than normal.
The trough does not look like it will bring any precipitation to
our area at this time.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Northern California will remain under the influence of a large
scale trough pattern through the extended period. This will likely
keep temperatures below normal through the end of next week. The
GFS continues to hint at a deeper trough bringing precipitation to
far northern CA late next week. The consensus suite of models
leaves things dry however, and our forecast hedges toward the
consensus.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Weather system currently moving through
the area, with scattered showers possible through early afternoon
north of I80. South to Southwest winds 10-15 kt with local gusts
up to 30 kt will begin to subside this evening.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291630
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS REGION TODAY BRINGING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-80. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak system is moving through the region bringing cooler air and
a few showers to the interior. The system is now mainly over the
western slopes. A few showers may linger into the afternoon but
in general what is left of the system will be moving east of the
crest. Temperatures will be a lot cooler today down 15 to 20
degrees from yesterday. Highs will be in the 80s for the valley
and mainly in the 60s for the mountains. Clouds will clear from
west to east late in the day into the early evening hours.

The current trough over the region will lift northeast on Sunday
but another trough will drop down along the coast from Canada
early next week to help keep temperatures cooler than normal.
The trough does not look like it will bring any precipitation to
our area at this time.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Northern California will remain under the influence of a large
scale trough pattern through the extended period. This will likely
keep temperatures below normal through the end of next week. The
GFS continues to hint at a deeper trough bringing precipitation to
far northern CA late next week. The consensus suite of models
leaves things dry however, and our forecast hedges toward the
consensus.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Weather system currently moving through
the area, with scattered showers possible through early afternoon
north of I80. South to Southwest winds 10-15 kt with local gusts
up to 30 kt will begin to subside this evening.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 291630
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS REGION TODAY BRINGING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-80. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak system is moving through the region bringing cooler air and
a few showers to the interior. The system is now mainly over the
western slopes. A few showers may linger into the afternoon but
in general what is left of the system will be moving east of the
crest. Temperatures will be a lot cooler today down 15 to 20
degrees from yesterday. Highs will be in the 80s for the valley
and mainly in the 60s for the mountains. Clouds will clear from
west to east late in the day into the early evening hours.

The current trough over the region will lift northeast on Sunday
but another trough will drop down along the coast from Canada
early next week to help keep temperatures cooler than normal.
The trough does not look like it will bring any precipitation to
our area at this time.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Northern California will remain under the influence of a large
scale trough pattern through the extended period. This will likely
keep temperatures below normal through the end of next week. The
GFS continues to hint at a deeper trough bringing precipitation to
far northern CA late next week. The consensus suite of models
leaves things dry however, and our forecast hedges toward the
consensus.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Weather system currently moving through
the area, with scattered showers possible through early afternoon
north of I80. South to Southwest winds 10-15 kt with local gusts
up to 30 kt will begin to subside this evening.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291043
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
343 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific system moving across region Saturday bringing chance of
precipitation north of I-80. Cooler and drier conditions with
below normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the west coast causing a rain
band to move through the area this morning with some isolated
thunderstorms north of Chico. Rain chances will diminish through
Saturday morning and afternoon as the system moves out of the
region. Rain totals expected to be less than 0.10 inch across the
northern valley, mainly north of I-80. Highest amounts expected
over the Coastal Range and western Shasta Mountains. After front
passes the northern valley, expect increased cloud cover,
especially over Shasta and Tehama counties. This increased cloud
cover will result in high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
yesterday. Highs in the valley in mid to high 80s, with the
foothills reaching mid to high 70s.

Showers from this frontal system may linger over the eastern
mountains this evening, but will quickly dry out after sunset.
Sunday will be drier with clearer skies. Temperatures will warm
slightly, but remain below normal through early next week.

NOO

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Northern California will remain under the influence of a large
scale trough pattern through the extended period. This will likely
keep temperatures below normal through the end of next week. The
GFS continues to hint at a deeper trough bringing precipitation to
far northern CA late next week. The consensus suite of models
leaves things dry however, and our forecast hedges toward the
consensus.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Weather system currently moving through
the area, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible
through early afternoon north of I80. Southwest winds 10-15 kt
with local gusts up to 30 kt will begin to subside this evening.

Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291043
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
343 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific system moving across region Saturday bringing chance of
precipitation north of I-80. Cooler and drier conditions with
below normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the west coast causing a rain
band to move through the area this morning with some isolated
thunderstorms north of Chico. Rain chances will diminish through
Saturday morning and afternoon as the system moves out of the
region. Rain totals expected to be less than 0.10 inch across the
northern valley, mainly north of I-80. Highest amounts expected
over the Coastal Range and western Shasta Mountains. After front
passes the northern valley, expect increased cloud cover,
especially over Shasta and Tehama counties. This increased cloud
cover will result in high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
yesterday. Highs in the valley in mid to high 80s, with the
foothills reaching mid to high 70s.

Showers from this frontal system may linger over the eastern
mountains this evening, but will quickly dry out after sunset.
Sunday will be drier with clearer skies. Temperatures will warm
slightly, but remain below normal through early next week.

NOO

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Northern California will remain under the influence of a large
scale trough pattern through the extended period. This will likely
keep temperatures below normal through the end of next week. The
GFS continues to hint at a deeper trough bringing precipitation to
far northern CA late next week. The consensus suite of models
leaves things dry however, and our forecast hedges toward the
consensus.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Weather system currently moving through
the area, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible
through early afternoon north of I80. Southwest winds 10-15 kt
with local gusts up to 30 kt will begin to subside this evening.

Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rain band still off the northern California coast will progress
east to the coastal range by early morning and through Shasta
county mid morning. Best rain chances will be from Chico north
with not much more than sprinkles south. Delta Breeze has been
slow to get going...but is starting to crank with 30 mph gusts
through the delta. This will lead to cooler overnight
lows...despite not currently being much cooler versus yesterday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST AND WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INSIDE 130 W AND BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED
WHICH WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS DIGGING FROM THE GOA AND WILL DRAW THE STORM NE INTO ITS FLOW
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BLENDED TPW REVEALING
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF 1.5+ INCHES ALONG FRONT HAS NARROWED.
MODEL PRECIP BEGINS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORCAL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE PLUME DECREASES. AS A RESULT,
QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIGHT WITH PRECIP GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS (AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS) OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AND WESTERN SHASTA MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INTERIOR NORCAL AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS PEAK TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SYNOPTIC COOLING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW EVENING, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LONG
WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 290508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rain band still off the northern California coast will progress
east to the coastal range by early morning and through Shasta
county mid morning. Best rain chances will be from Chico north
with not much more than sprinkles south. Delta Breeze has been
slow to get going...but is starting to crank with 30 mph gusts
through the delta. This will lead to cooler overnight
lows...despite not currently being much cooler versus yesterday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST AND WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INSIDE 130 W AND BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED
WHICH WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS DIGGING FROM THE GOA AND WILL DRAW THE STORM NE INTO ITS FLOW
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BLENDED TPW REVEALING
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF 1.5+ INCHES ALONG FRONT HAS NARROWED.
MODEL PRECIP BEGINS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORCAL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE PLUME DECREASES. AS A RESULT,
QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIGHT WITH PRECIP GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS (AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS) OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AND WESTERN SHASTA MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INTERIOR NORCAL AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS PEAK TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SYNOPTIC COOLING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW EVENING, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LONG
WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 290508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rain band still off the northern California coast will progress
east to the coastal range by early morning and through Shasta
county mid morning. Best rain chances will be from Chico north
with not much more than sprinkles south. Delta Breeze has been
slow to get going...but is starting to crank with 30 mph gusts
through the delta. This will lead to cooler overnight
lows...despite not currently being much cooler versus yesterday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST AND WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INSIDE 130 W AND BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED
WHICH WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS DIGGING FROM THE GOA AND WILL DRAW THE STORM NE INTO ITS FLOW
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BLENDED TPW REVEALING
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF 1.5+ INCHES ALONG FRONT HAS NARROWED.
MODEL PRECIP BEGINS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORCAL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE PLUME DECREASES. AS A RESULT,
QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIGHT WITH PRECIP GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS (AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS) OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AND WESTERN SHASTA MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INTERIOR NORCAL AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS PEAK TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SYNOPTIC COOLING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW EVENING, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LONG
WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 290508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rain band still off the northern California coast will progress
east to the coastal range by early morning and through Shasta
county mid morning. Best rain chances will be from Chico north
with not much more than sprinkles south. Delta Breeze has been
slow to get going...but is starting to crank with 30 mph gusts
through the delta. This will lead to cooler overnight
lows...despite not currently being much cooler versus yesterday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST AND WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INSIDE 130 W AND BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED
WHICH WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS DIGGING FROM THE GOA AND WILL DRAW THE STORM NE INTO ITS FLOW
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BLENDED TPW REVEALING
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME OF 1.5+ INCHES ALONG FRONT HAS NARROWED.
MODEL PRECIP BEGINS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NORCAL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE PLUME DECREASES. AS A RESULT,
QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIGHT WITH PRECIP GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80
AND GREATEST AMOUNTS (AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS) OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AND WESTERN SHASTA MOUNTAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF INTERIOR NORCAL AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS PEAK TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SYNOPTIC COOLING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID
80S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND 50S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.

ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW EVENING, THEN DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LONG
WAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 282210
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
310 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the West Coast and will bring
some precipitation to Northern California late tonight into
Saturday. Satellite imagery showing baroclinic zone moving inside
130 W and becoming more N-S oriented which will slow eastward
progression. A second low pressure area is digging from the GOA
and will draw the storm NE into its flow as associated surface low
deepens. Blended TPW revealing associated moisture plume of 1.5+
inches along front has narrowed. Model precip begins spreading
into western portions of Interior NorCal around 12z Saturday then
moves through tomorrow as baroclinic zone weakens and moisture
plume decreases. As a result, QPF continues to look light with
precip generally north of I-80 and greatest amounts (around a
third of an inch or less) over the Coastal Range and Western
Shasta mountains. Breezy southerly wind tonight over the northern
half of Interior NorCal as front approaches. Winds peak tomorrow
morning as the front moves through, but speeds are forecast to
remain below advisory criteria. Synoptic cooling and cloudiness
Saturday will result in high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
today with lower to mid 80s for the Central Valley and 50s to 70s
for the mountains and foothills.

Isolated lingering showers possible over the eastern mountains
tomorrow evening, then drier weather Sunday and Monday as long
wave troughing continues over the eastern Pacific. High
temperatures will warm a few degrees Sunday and again Monday but
will continue below normal for late August.

PCH


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 282210
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
310 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching Pacific storm will move through Saturday bringing
cooler temperatures and some precipitation...mainly north of
Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the West Coast and will bring
some precipitation to Northern California late tonight into
Saturday. Satellite imagery showing baroclinic zone moving inside
130 W and becoming more N-S oriented which will slow eastward
progression. A second low pressure area is digging from the GOA
and will draw the storm NE into its flow as associated surface low
deepens. Blended TPW revealing associated moisture plume of 1.5+
inches along front has narrowed. Model precip begins spreading
into western portions of Interior NorCal around 12z Saturday then
moves through tomorrow as baroclinic zone weakens and moisture
plume decreases. As a result, QPF continues to look light with
precip generally north of I-80 and greatest amounts (around a
third of an inch or less) over the Coastal Range and Western
Shasta mountains. Breezy southerly wind tonight over the northern
half of Interior NorCal as front approaches. Winds peak tomorrow
morning as the front moves through, but speeds are forecast to
remain below advisory criteria. Synoptic cooling and cloudiness
Saturday will result in high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
today with lower to mid 80s for the Central Valley and 50s to 70s
for the mountains and foothills.

Isolated lingering showers possible over the eastern mountains
tomorrow evening, then drier weather Sunday and Monday as long
wave troughing continues over the eastern Pacific. High
temperatures will warm a few degrees Sunday and again Monday but
will continue below normal for late August.

PCH


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the extended forecast. Trough forecasted to dig
southward and move across the region for the end of the week. The
GFS is hinting at some precipitation across far northern CA
Thursday into Friday but ECMWF remains dry. Have kept dry forecast
through the end of the period due to model differences. High temperatures
will continue to be below normal. Wednesday and Thursday look
like the coolest days with highs 4 to 13 degrees well below
normal. IDM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will continue to
pick up this evening into Saturday as trough moves through. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Increasing cloud cover will accompany the system. Chance for brief
periods of showers and MVFR conditions after 15Z Saturday for
northern SAC valley.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281605
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific storm approaches today and moves through late tonight and
Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and some precipitation...
mainly north of Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with
below normal temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the West Coast and will bring
some precipitation to Interior Northern California late tonight and
Saturday. Satellite imagery showing baroclinic leaf approaching 130W
and blended TPW revealing PWS in excess of 1.5 inches along the
front. System will progress today spreading increasing clouds over
the CWA generally AOA 500 mb, which will help to lower high
temperatures this afternoon to mainly upper 90s for the Central
Valley.

As system progress, it will become entrained into flow associated
with higher latitude short wave tonight. Surface low deepens and
lifts NE overnight while upper level support weakens. Precip begins
spreading into NW portions of Interior NorCal after midnight.
Southern portions of frontal system move through Saturday but
baroclinic zone and integrated water vapor transport weaken as main
dynamics lift NE through the PacNW. As a result, model QPFs are
light with precip generally north of I-80 and greatest amounts
(around a third of an inch or less) over the Coastal Range and
Western Shasta mountains. Breezy southerly wind develops tonight
over the northern half of Interior NorCal, peaking near low end wind
advisory Saturday morning as front moves through. Synoptic cooling
and cloudiness will result in high temperatures Saturday upwards of
10 to 15 degrees below today. Highs expected in the lower to mid 80s
for the Central Valley with mainly 50s to 70s for the mountains and
foothills.

Long wave trough remains along 130W Sunday into next week with
embedded weak vort maxes moving through, mainly north of the
forecast area. Temperatures rebound slightly Monday but onshore flow
and broad troughing aloft keep highs below normal through Friday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday through Friday)

A broad trough pattern will persist over NorCal through the
extended forecast. In general, interior NorCal will experience
cooler than average weather, but there is currently low confidence
that any rain will impact our region. Daytime highs from Tuesday
through Friday will range 2-12 degrees below normal. It looks
like Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest days: valley highs
will be in upper 70s to upper 80s and mountain highs will range
about 60-80 degrees.

The trough appears to deepen southward towards the end of the week
and the ECMWF hints at some precipitation working its way into
portions of NorCal on Friday, but the GFS stays dry. With low
confidence in rain, have kept the forecast dry for the extended
period.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

Pac fntl sys apchs tda then movs thru Intr NorCal late tngt thru
Sat. VFR conds excp lcl MVFR/IFR conds poss mnly N of I-80 and omtns
in pcpn with fntl sys btwn 06z Sat and 00z Sun. Sly sfc wnds incrsg
in Cntrl Vly this aftn into eve with lcl gsts up to 35 kts poss N of
I-80 btwn 06z-15z Sat. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts 40-50 kts poss ovr hyr
mtn trrn, mnly N of I-80 tngt aft 06z thru midday Sat.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281605
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific storm approaches today and moves through late tonight and
Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and some precipitation...
mainly north of Interstate 80. Dry Sunday through next week with
below normal temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific frontal system is approaching the West Coast and will bring
some precipitation to Interior Northern California late tonight and
Saturday. Satellite imagery showing baroclinic leaf approaching 130W
and blended TPW revealing PWS in excess of 1.5 inches along the
front. System will progress today spreading increasing clouds over
the CWA generally AOA 500 mb, which will help to lower high
temperatures this afternoon to mainly upper 90s for the Central
Valley.

As system progress, it will become entrained into flow associated
with higher latitude short wave tonight. Surface low deepens and
lifts NE overnight while upper level support weakens. Precip begins
spreading into NW portions of Interior NorCal after midnight.
Southern portions of frontal system move through Saturday but
baroclinic zone and integrated water vapor transport weaken as main
dynamics lift NE through the PacNW. As a result, model QPFs are
light with precip generally north of I-80 and greatest amounts
(around a third of an inch or less) over the Coastal Range and
Western Shasta mountains. Breezy southerly wind develops tonight
over the northern half of Interior NorCal, peaking near low end wind
advisory Saturday morning as front moves through. Synoptic cooling
and cloudiness will result in high temperatures Saturday upwards of
10 to 15 degrees below today. Highs expected in the lower to mid 80s
for the Central Valley with mainly 50s to 70s for the mountains and
foothills.

Long wave trough remains along 130W Sunday into next week with
embedded weak vort maxes moving through, mainly north of the
forecast area. Temperatures rebound slightly Monday but onshore flow
and broad troughing aloft keep highs below normal through Friday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday through Friday)

A broad trough pattern will persist over NorCal through the
extended forecast. In general, interior NorCal will experience
cooler than average weather, but there is currently low confidence
that any rain will impact our region. Daytime highs from Tuesday
through Friday will range 2-12 degrees below normal. It looks
like Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest days: valley highs
will be in upper 70s to upper 80s and mountain highs will range
about 60-80 degrees.

The trough appears to deepen southward towards the end of the week
and the ECMWF hints at some precipitation working its way into
portions of NorCal on Friday, but the GFS stays dry. With low
confidence in rain, have kept the forecast dry for the extended
period.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

Pac fntl sys apchs tda then movs thru Intr NorCal late tngt thru
Sat. VFR conds excp lcl MVFR/IFR conds poss mnly N of I-80 and omtns
in pcpn with fntl sys btwn 06z Sat and 00z Sun. Sly sfc wnds incrsg
in Cntrl Vly this aftn into eve with lcl gsts up to 35 kts poss N of
I-80 btwn 06z-15z Sat. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts 40-50 kts poss ovr hyr
mtn trrn, mnly N of I-80 tngt aft 06z thru midday Sat.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281037
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
337 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather today with daytime highs just a bit lower than
Thursday under increasing cloud cover. Cooler temperatures
beginning over the weekend with a chance of showers over the
northern portion of the state Saturday. Dry with a little below
normal daytime high temperatures continuing through most of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High clouds spilling into the northern CWA this morning as a low
pressure system over the Eastern Pacific edges towards the coast.
The overall airmass is not much different today than Thursday but
increasing cloud cover should help cool things just a bit. A
slightly increased delta breeze will help cool temperatures a bit
more in delta influence areas. High temperatures today are likely
to remain a little above normal but valley temperatures should
remain under the triple digit mark. An early season Pacific
frontal system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and
norcal late tonight and early Saturday or about 6 hours later than
forecast by models 24 hours ago. The blended TPW product still
shows an impressive moisture plume exceeding 1 and a half inches
feeding into this system. Weak dynamics and instability should
however keep precipitation over the forecast area to a minimum and
mainly to the north of the Sacramento area. Redding QPF for
example varies from a couple of hundredths to a couple tenths of
an inch. Cloud cover and airmass cooling will bring a significant
cooling on Saturday with high temperatures dropping by at least 10
degrees most areas. Surface gradients with this system are not
particularly tight but the upper elevations will likely see at
least a short period of breezy to gusty winds as the front passes
through. Model timing shifts the frontal boundary into the
Cascades Saturday afternoon but a couple models show a secondary
disturbance moving into the Sierra Saturday evening. Have
therefore added a slight threat of showers Saturday evening there.
A lingering trough remains over the west coast on Sunday keeping
daytime highs below normal although clearer skies should allow for
a slight warming. Fair skies and a bit more warming are expected
on Monday but troughing over the west coast should keep daytime
highs a little below season norms.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

A broad trough pattern will persist over NorCal through the
extended forecast. In general, interior NorCal will experience
cooler than average weather, but there is currently low confidence
that any rain will impact our region. Daytime highs from Tuesday
through Friday will range 2-12 degrees below normal. It looks
like Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest days: valley highs
will be in upper 70s to upper 80s and mountain highs will range
about 60-80 degrees.

The trough appears to deepen southward towards the end of the week
and the ECWMF hints at some precipitation working its way into
portions of NorCal on Friday, but the GFS stays dry. With low
confidence in rain, have kept the forecast dry for the extended
period.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will be light this
morning, under 10 kts. However, winds will pick up this afternoon
and evening as a trough moves inland and enhances
southwesterly/onshore flow into our region. Generally, after
21-22Z, TAF sites will see sustained winds 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts. Delta breeze will also be enhanced this afternoon and
overnight with sustained winds 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.
Southwesterly gusts over the mountains 20-30 kts.  JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281037
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
337 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather today with daytime highs just a bit lower than
Thursday under increasing cloud cover. Cooler temperatures
beginning over the weekend with a chance of showers over the
northern portion of the state Saturday. Dry with a little below
normal daytime high temperatures continuing through most of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High clouds spilling into the northern CWA this morning as a low
pressure system over the Eastern Pacific edges towards the coast.
The overall airmass is not much different today than Thursday but
increasing cloud cover should help cool things just a bit. A
slightly increased delta breeze will help cool temperatures a bit
more in delta influence areas. High temperatures today are likely
to remain a little above normal but valley temperatures should
remain under the triple digit mark. An early season Pacific
frontal system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and
norcal late tonight and early Saturday or about 6 hours later than
forecast by models 24 hours ago. The blended TPW product still
shows an impressive moisture plume exceeding 1 and a half inches
feeding into this system. Weak dynamics and instability should
however keep precipitation over the forecast area to a minimum and
mainly to the north of the Sacramento area. Redding QPF for
example varies from a couple of hundredths to a couple tenths of
an inch. Cloud cover and airmass cooling will bring a significant
cooling on Saturday with high temperatures dropping by at least 10
degrees most areas. Surface gradients with this system are not
particularly tight but the upper elevations will likely see at
least a short period of breezy to gusty winds as the front passes
through. Model timing shifts the frontal boundary into the
Cascades Saturday afternoon but a couple models show a secondary
disturbance moving into the Sierra Saturday evening. Have
therefore added a slight threat of showers Saturday evening there.
A lingering trough remains over the west coast on Sunday keeping
daytime highs below normal although clearer skies should allow for
a slight warming. Fair skies and a bit more warming are expected
on Monday but troughing over the west coast should keep daytime
highs a little below season norms.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

A broad trough pattern will persist over NorCal through the
extended forecast. In general, interior NorCal will experience
cooler than average weather, but there is currently low confidence
that any rain will impact our region. Daytime highs from Tuesday
through Friday will range 2-12 degrees below normal. It looks
like Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest days: valley highs
will be in upper 70s to upper 80s and mountain highs will range
about 60-80 degrees.

The trough appears to deepen southward towards the end of the week
and the ECWMF hints at some precipitation working its way into
portions of NorCal on Friday, but the GFS stays dry. With low
confidence in rain, have kept the forecast dry for the extended
period.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue for TAF sites. Winds will be light this
morning, under 10 kts. However, winds will pick up this afternoon
and evening as a trough moves inland and enhances
southwesterly/onshore flow into our region. Generally, after
21-22Z, TAF sites will see sustained winds 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts. Delta breeze will also be enhanced this afternoon and
overnight with sustained winds 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.
Southwesterly gusts over the mountains 20-30 kts.  JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 280448
AFDSTO

ZCZC SFOWRKAFD 000
TTAA00 KMTR 280339

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
SATURDAY. DRY WITH A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Dominate high pressure from the 4-corners/Desert SW and a well mixed
out marine layer allowed for the hottest max temps this week over
most locations. Triple digit maxes were noted up/down the valley
from RDD-MOD and Wwd to SUU. Thus, today (Thu) will be the hottest
day as a cooling trend begins on Fri.

About 5-8 degrees of cooling is expected over most areas on Fri...
still about 1-6 degrees above normal. Clouds will increase and there
is likely to be at least a moderate late afternoon/evening delta
breeze as trough digs south off the coast. Moisture plume of
1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme northern California Friday
night. Shower chances will be over the northern Sacramento
valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best chances for rain will be
Redding northward and have increased chances to likely.

Showers continuing into Saturday best chances northern valley
with trough swinging through the area. There will be slight
chances down to Sacramento during the morning...turning drier
late afternoon evening. Precipitation amounts may approach 0.25
inches north valley generally less than 0.10 inches elsewhere.
Temperatures will be much cooler with readings around 5 degrees
below normal.

Drier and cool on Sunday with trough overhead. Onshore flow will
keep temps at least 5 degrees below average.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Local area will remain under a large scale trough pattern into
mid-week. Expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Model
uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as another wave
moves onshore. This could bring another chance of precipitation
for the northern portion of the state. For now, have kept dry
forecasts until model differences can be resolved. High
temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week. IDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with SCT-BKN clouds AOA150 thru the period for TAF sites.
Generally light winds under 10 kts or less. Wind gusts 15 to 20 kts
through the Delta region tonight and again on Fri after 21Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 272252
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
352 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
SATURDAY. DRY WITH A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and warm temperatures over NorCal this afternoon with
temperatures near 100 degrees for valleys. These readings are 10
degrees above normal. Not expecting much of a delta breeze this
evening and temperatures will likely be slow to cool.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still above normal. Clouds will
increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate late
afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the coast.
Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme northern
California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the northern
Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best chances for
rain will be Redding northward and have increased chances to
likely.

Showers continuing into Saturday best chances northern valley
with trough swinging through the area. There will be slight
chances down to Sacramento during the morning...turning drier
late afternoon evening. Precipitation amounts may approach 0.25
inches north valley generally less than 0.10 inches elsewhere.
Temperatures will be much cooler with readings around 5 degrees
below normal.

Drier and cool on Sunday with trough overhead. Onshore flow will
keep temps at least 5 degrees below average.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Local area will remain under a large scale trough pattern into
mid-week. Expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Model
uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as another wave
moves onshore. This could bring another chance of precipitation
for the northern portion of the state. For now, have kept dry
forecasts until model differences can be resolved. High
temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week. IDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions thru the period for TAF sites. Generally light
winds under 10 kts or less. Wind gusts 15 to 20 kts across the
Delta region through tonight and again on Friday after 21Z.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 272252
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
352 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
SATURDAY. DRY WITH A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and warm temperatures over NorCal this afternoon with
temperatures near 100 degrees for valleys. These readings are 10
degrees above normal. Not expecting much of a delta breeze this
evening and temperatures will likely be slow to cool.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still above normal. Clouds will
increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate late
afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the coast.
Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme northern
California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the northern
Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best chances for
rain will be Redding northward and have increased chances to
likely.

Showers continuing into Saturday best chances northern valley
with trough swinging through the area. There will be slight
chances down to Sacramento during the morning...turning drier
late afternoon evening. Precipitation amounts may approach 0.25
inches north valley generally less than 0.10 inches elsewhere.
Temperatures will be much cooler with readings around 5 degrees
below normal.

Drier and cool on Sunday with trough overhead. Onshore flow will
keep temps at least 5 degrees below average.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Local area will remain under a large scale trough pattern into
mid-week. Expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Model
uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as another wave
moves onshore. This could bring another chance of precipitation
for the northern portion of the state. For now, have kept dry
forecasts until model differences can be resolved. High
temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week. IDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions thru the period for TAF sites. Generally light
winds under 10 kts or less. Wind gusts 15 to 20 kts across the
Delta region through tonight and again on Friday after 21Z.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271749
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1049 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures near to a little above
normal today and Friday. Cooler temperatures beginning over the
weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of the
state Saturday. Dry with a little below normal daytime high
temperatures continuing through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures running around 5 degrees above yesterday at this
time. High temperatures on Wednesday ended up a few degrees above
guidance and current guidance has trended warmer. Have raised Today`s
afternoon highs a few degrees. This gives readings at 100 degrees
or warmer at most valley spots. Otherwise...clear skies and light
winds.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the four corners U.S. region and an upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. A shortwave trough rippling
through this southwest flow is bringing some scattered cloud cover
over the northeast corner of the state at this time. Otherwise...
Norcal remains under fairs skies with temperatures running a
little warmer this morning under a slightly warmer airmass. Marine
layer remains minimal with only a very weak delta breeze so
expect daytime highs today to come in similar to yesterdays above
average readings. Changes begin on Friday as the offshore low
begins to edge towards the coast. Increasing high cloud cover and
a slight airmass cooling combined with an increased onshore flow
will bring at least some cooling Friday although highs may remain
near or a little above normal. The tail end of an early season
weak frontal band is forecast to move into northwest California
Friday night bringing a threat of light precipitation to areas
north of a Quincy to Lake county line by morning. All models keep
precip amounts on the light side but even small amounts will have
some impact on the many wildfires burning over northwest
California. Precipitation estimates currently range from about 1
to 3 tenths of an inch through the day Saturday as this frontal
band slides through. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to drop
to several degrees below normal under a cooler airmass...cloud
cover and an increased onshore flow. A Lingering trough remains
along the west coast on Sunday for continued below normal
temperatures. Models show a secondary shortwave moving through the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday but at this time...any precipitation
from it is expected to remain north of the CWA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

A large trough pattern will stay over NorCal for the first half of
next week. Moisture associated with this trough is expected to
stay well north of our CWA so we expect slightly cool, but dry
conditions. Daytime highs will be near to 5 degrees below normal
in the extended forecast.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across the region. Winds at TAF sites will
be light around 10 kts or less. SW winds 15 to 20 kts possible
through the Delta region this evening into tonight. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271749
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1049 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures near to a little above
normal today and Friday. Cooler temperatures beginning over the
weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of the
state Saturday. Dry with a little below normal daytime high
temperatures continuing through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures running around 5 degrees above yesterday at this
time. High temperatures on Wednesday ended up a few degrees above
guidance and current guidance has trended warmer. Have raised Today`s
afternoon highs a few degrees. This gives readings at 100 degrees
or warmer at most valley spots. Otherwise...clear skies and light
winds.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the four corners U.S. region and an upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. A shortwave trough rippling
through this southwest flow is bringing some scattered cloud cover
over the northeast corner of the state at this time. Otherwise...
Norcal remains under fairs skies with temperatures running a
little warmer this morning under a slightly warmer airmass. Marine
layer remains minimal with only a very weak delta breeze so
expect daytime highs today to come in similar to yesterdays above
average readings. Changes begin on Friday as the offshore low
begins to edge towards the coast. Increasing high cloud cover and
a slight airmass cooling combined with an increased onshore flow
will bring at least some cooling Friday although highs may remain
near or a little above normal. The tail end of an early season
weak frontal band is forecast to move into northwest California
Friday night bringing a threat of light precipitation to areas
north of a Quincy to Lake county line by morning. All models keep
precip amounts on the light side but even small amounts will have
some impact on the many wildfires burning over northwest
California. Precipitation estimates currently range from about 1
to 3 tenths of an inch through the day Saturday as this frontal
band slides through. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to drop
to several degrees below normal under a cooler airmass...cloud
cover and an increased onshore flow. A Lingering trough remains
along the west coast on Sunday for continued below normal
temperatures. Models show a secondary shortwave moving through the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday but at this time...any precipitation
from it is expected to remain north of the CWA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

A large trough pattern will stay over NorCal for the first half of
next week. Moisture associated with this trough is expected to
stay well north of our CWA so we expect slightly cool, but dry
conditions. Daytime highs will be near to 5 degrees below normal
in the extended forecast.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across the region. Winds at TAF sites will
be light around 10 kts or less. SW winds 15 to 20 kts possible
through the Delta region this evening into tonight. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271749
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1049 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures near to a little above
normal today and Friday. Cooler temperatures beginning over the
weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of the
state Saturday. Dry with a little below normal daytime high
temperatures continuing through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures running around 5 degrees above yesterday at this
time. High temperatures on Wednesday ended up a few degrees above
guidance and current guidance has trended warmer. Have raised Today`s
afternoon highs a few degrees. This gives readings at 100 degrees
or warmer at most valley spots. Otherwise...clear skies and light
winds.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the four corners U.S. region and an upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. A shortwave trough rippling
through this southwest flow is bringing some scattered cloud cover
over the northeast corner of the state at this time. Otherwise...
Norcal remains under fairs skies with temperatures running a
little warmer this morning under a slightly warmer airmass. Marine
layer remains minimal with only a very weak delta breeze so
expect daytime highs today to come in similar to yesterdays above
average readings. Changes begin on Friday as the offshore low
begins to edge towards the coast. Increasing high cloud cover and
a slight airmass cooling combined with an increased onshore flow
will bring at least some cooling Friday although highs may remain
near or a little above normal. The tail end of an early season
weak frontal band is forecast to move into northwest California
Friday night bringing a threat of light precipitation to areas
north of a Quincy to Lake county line by morning. All models keep
precip amounts on the light side but even small amounts will have
some impact on the many wildfires burning over northwest
California. Precipitation estimates currently range from about 1
to 3 tenths of an inch through the day Saturday as this frontal
band slides through. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to drop
to several degrees below normal under a cooler airmass...cloud
cover and an increased onshore flow. A Lingering trough remains
along the west coast on Sunday for continued below normal
temperatures. Models show a secondary shortwave moving through the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday but at this time...any precipitation
from it is expected to remain north of the CWA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

A large trough pattern will stay over NorCal for the first half of
next week. Moisture associated with this trough is expected to
stay well north of our CWA so we expect slightly cool, but dry
conditions. Daytime highs will be near to 5 degrees below normal
in the extended forecast.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across the region. Winds at TAF sites will
be light around 10 kts or less. SW winds 15 to 20 kts possible
through the Delta region this evening into tonight. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 271039
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures near to a little above
normal today and Friday. Cooler temperatures beginning over the
weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of the
state Saturday. Dry with a little below normal daytime high
temperatures continuing through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the four corners U.S. region and an upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. A shortwave trough rippling
through this southwest flow is bringing some scattered cloud cover
over the northeast corner of the state at this time. Otherwise...
Norcal remains under fairs skies with temperatures running a
little warmer this morning under a slightly warmer airmass. Marine
layer remains minimal with only a very weak delta breeze so
expect daytime highs today to come in similar to yesterdays above
average readings. Changes begin on Friday as the offshore low
begins to edge towards the coast. Increasing high cloud cover and
a slight airmass cooling combined with an increased onshore flow
will bring at least some cooling Friday although highs may remain
near or a little above normal. The tail end of an early season
weak frontal band is forecast to move into northwest California
Friday night bringing a threat of light precipitation to areas
north of a Quincy to Lake county line by morning. All models keep
precip amounts on the light side but even small amounts will have
some impact on the many wildfires burning over northwest
California. Precipitation estimates currently range from about 1
to 3 tenths of an inch through the day Saturday as this frontal
band slides through. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to drop
to several degrees below normal under a cooler airmass...cloud
cover and an increased onshore flow. A Lingering trough remains
along the west coast on Sunday for continued below normal
temperatures. Models show a secondary shortwave moving through the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday but at this time...any precipitation
from it is expected to remain north of the CWA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

A large trough pattern will stay over NorCal for the first half of
next week. Moisture associated with this trough is expected to
stay well north of our CWA so we expect slightly cool, but dry
conditions. Daytime highs will be near to 5 degrees below normal
in the extended forecast.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across the region. Winds at TAF sites will
be light around 10 kts or less. SW winds 15 to 20 kts possible
through the Delta region this evening into tonight. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271039
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures near to a little above
normal today and Friday. Cooler temperatures beginning over the
weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of the
state Saturday. Dry with a little below normal daytime high
temperatures continuing through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northern California remains under southwest flow aloft between
high pressure over the four corners U.S. region and an upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. A shortwave trough rippling
through this southwest flow is bringing some scattered cloud cover
over the northeast corner of the state at this time. Otherwise...
Norcal remains under fairs skies with temperatures running a
little warmer this morning under a slightly warmer airmass. Marine
layer remains minimal with only a very weak delta breeze so
expect daytime highs today to come in similar to yesterdays above
average readings. Changes begin on Friday as the offshore low
begins to edge towards the coast. Increasing high cloud cover and
a slight airmass cooling combined with an increased onshore flow
will bring at least some cooling Friday although highs may remain
near or a little above normal. The tail end of an early season
weak frontal band is forecast to move into northwest California
Friday night bringing a threat of light precipitation to areas
north of a Quincy to Lake county line by morning. All models keep
precip amounts on the light side but even small amounts will have
some impact on the many wildfires burning over northwest
California. Precipitation estimates currently range from about 1
to 3 tenths of an inch through the day Saturday as this frontal
band slides through. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to drop
to several degrees below normal under a cooler airmass...cloud
cover and an increased onshore flow. A Lingering trough remains
along the west coast on Sunday for continued below normal
temperatures. Models show a secondary shortwave moving through the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday but at this time...any precipitation
from it is expected to remain north of the CWA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

A large trough pattern will stay over NorCal for the first half of
next week. Moisture associated with this trough is expected to
stay well north of our CWA so we expect slightly cool, but dry
conditions. Daytime highs will be near to 5 degrees below normal
in the extended forecast.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across the region. Winds at TAF sites will
be light around 10 kts or less. SW winds 15 to 20 kts possible
through the Delta region this evening into tonight. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 270455
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures a little above normal
through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures beginning over
the weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of
the state. Above normal daytime highs continuing through Friday
followed by a cooling trend over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Max temps were generally some 4-9 deg above normal on Wed with
similar readings expected on Thu. A few sites (DTS,MOD,SCK) managed
to hit the century mark.

Another very warm/hot day is expected on Thu with with readings
approaching 100 degrees in many valley spots. Weak monsoon push
northward may be enough for an isolated thunderstorm over Alpine
county near the crest. Otherwise...clear and light winds over the
area.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still a few degrees above normal.
Clouds will increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate
late afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the
coast. Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme
northern California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the
northern Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best
chances for rain will be Redding northward.

Slight shower chances continuing into Saturday northern valley
with trough swinging through the area...turning drier late
afternoon evening. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings
around 5 degrees below normal.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Large scale trough will linger off the West Coast into mid-week
with several waves riding southeast in the flow. Little effect
expected on NorCal as moisture remains removed far to the north.
This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures into
mid-week. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across TAF sites next 24 hours. Brief
period of MVFR conditions possible near Carquinez Strait Thursday
morning. Generally winds under 10 kts with the exception of
locally gusty SW winds across the Delta with gusts to 20-25 kts
possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 270455
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures a little above normal
through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures beginning over
the weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of
the state. Above normal daytime highs continuing through Friday
followed by a cooling trend over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Max temps were generally some 4-9 deg above normal on Wed with
similar readings expected on Thu. A few sites (DTS,MOD,SCK) managed
to hit the century mark.

Another very warm/hot day is expected on Thu with with readings
approaching 100 degrees in many valley spots. Weak monsoon push
northward may be enough for an isolated thunderstorm over Alpine
county near the crest. Otherwise...clear and light winds over the
area.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still a few degrees above normal.
Clouds will increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate
late afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the
coast. Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme
northern California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the
northern Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best
chances for rain will be Redding northward.

Slight shower chances continuing into Saturday northern valley
with trough swinging through the area...turning drier late
afternoon evening. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings
around 5 degrees below normal.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Large scale trough will linger off the West Coast into mid-week
with several waves riding southeast in the flow. Little effect
expected on NorCal as moisture remains removed far to the north.
This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures into
mid-week. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across TAF sites next 24 hours. Brief
period of MVFR conditions possible near Carquinez Strait Thursday
morning. Generally winds under 10 kts with the exception of
locally gusty SW winds across the Delta with gusts to 20-25 kts
possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 262226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures a little above normal
through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures beginning over
the weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of
the state. A little below normal daytime highs continuing through
most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and warm temperatures over NorCal this afternoon with
temperatures well into the 90`s for valleys. These readings are 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Not expecting much of a delta breeze
this evening and temperatures will likely be slow to cool.

Warm temperatures continue Thursday with readings approaching 100
degrees in many valley spots. Weak monsoon push northward may be
enough for an isolated thunderstorm over Alpine county near the
crest. Otherwise...clear and light winds over the area.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still a few degrees above normal.
Clouds will increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate
late afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the
coast. Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme
northern California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the
northern Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best
chances for rain will be Redding northward.

Slight shower chances continuing into Saturday northern valley
with trough swinging through the area...turning drier late
afternoon evening. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings
around 5 degrees below normal.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Large scale trough will linger off the West Coast into mid-week
with several waves riding southeast in the flow. Little effect
expected on NorCal as moisture remains removed far to the north.
This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures into
mid-week. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across TAF sites next 24 hours. Brief
period of MVFR conditions possible near Carquinez Strait Thursday
morning. Generally winds under 10 kts with the exception of
locally gusty SW winds across the Delta with gusts to 20-25 kts
possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 262226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with daytime temperatures a little above normal
through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures beginning over
the weekend with a chance of showers over the northern portion of
the state. A little below normal daytime highs continuing through
most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and warm temperatures over NorCal this afternoon with
temperatures well into the 90`s for valleys. These readings are 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Not expecting much of a delta breeze
this evening and temperatures will likely be slow to cool.

Warm temperatures continue Thursday with readings approaching 100
degrees in many valley spots. Weak monsoon push northward may be
enough for an isolated thunderstorm over Alpine county near the
crest. Otherwise...clear and light winds over the area.

Slightly cooler Friday...but still a few degrees above normal.
Clouds will increase and there is likely to be at least a moderate
late afternoon/evening delta breeze as trough digs south off the
coast. Moisture plume of 1.00-1.50 pwat will swing over extreme
northern California Friday night. Shower chances will be over the
northern Sacramento valley...north of Yuba City-Chico. Best
chances for rain will be Redding northward.

Slight shower chances continuing into Saturday northern valley
with trough swinging through the area...turning drier late
afternoon evening. Temperatures will be much cooler with readings
around 5 degrees below normal.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Large scale trough will linger off the West Coast into mid-week
with several waves riding southeast in the flow. Little effect
expected on NorCal as moisture remains removed far to the north.
This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures into
mid-week. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across TAF sites next 24 hours. Brief
period of MVFR conditions possible near Carquinez Strait Thursday
morning. Generally winds under 10 kts with the exception of
locally gusty SW winds across the Delta with gusts to 20-25 kts
possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





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