000
FXUS66 KSTO 192300
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL WARMING INTO SATURDAY THEN AN UNSEASONABLY WET WEATHER
PATTERN LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EXTENSIVE CU OVER THE COASTAL RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA AND
WESTERN PLUMAS IN THE WAKE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING AROUND PLUS OR MINUS 4 DEGREES
THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. KSFO-KSAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 MB AND EXPECTED TO TREND UP A LITTLE FURTHER THIS
EVENING THEN WEAKEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORCAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. VORT MAX PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
HINDER PRECIP POTENTIAL. AMS GRADUALLY WARMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THICKNESSES TREND UP. HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
THE PAC NW AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORCAL SATURDAY BRINGING
SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS TEMPS SATURDAY EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MAINLY 70S TO 80S FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
PCH
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A UNUSUALLY DEEP AND MOIST PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND
AIMED AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A COOLER AND WETTER
PATTERN TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS
MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY FALL THAN EARLY SUMMER. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THIS EVENT OCCURRING...BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF
THE RAIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO ORIGINATE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 AND TROPICAL STORM
LEEPI. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
(OVER 1.7 INCHES) COMBINED WITH A STRONG DIFFLUENT PATTERN FROM
MULTIPLE WAVES OFF THE COAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE RAIN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAILY RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS IN THAT AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CHICO ARE
MUCH LESS CERTAIN BUT MAY ALSO SEE SOME RAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY WARM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL BE THE STEADY...STRATIFORM TYPE. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND POSSIBLE MAINLY JUST OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND DEEPENING OVER CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THIS EVENT. THIS SYSTEM IS DEEPER THAN SEEN IN THE 00Z RUN AND
WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS HAS A WEAKER WAVE
PASSING FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM DOING A
BLEND OF THESE MODELS WITH MORE WEIGHT TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.
A DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THESE LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY MOVED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE WEIGHT OF THE IMPACT OF THE STORM OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. SOME
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
CONTINENTAL RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO RAIN...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXEPCTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 191635
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
935 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC
COOLING WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY.
DELTA BREEZE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED
LIGHTER TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE
DELTA AND ADJACENT VALLEY LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMPS TODAY
PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE VALUES MONDAY.
LONG WAVE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORCAL WITH AMS GRADUALLY WARMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL WARMING WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH MAINLY 70S TO 80S FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
COOLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
SUNDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME
SYNOPTIC COOLING TO INTERIOR NORCAL. SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT
OF SOME SHOWERS TO SHASTA COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN TEHAMA
AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 3+ ANOMALOUS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. RMOP VALUES ARE HIGH FOR UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
IN THE EPAC EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FORECAST TO SETUP
MONDAY OVER INTERIOR NORCAL WITH GFS PWAT IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF-HI RES CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON DEPTH AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF LOW BUT BOTH SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD MONDAY. ECMWF-HIRES CONTINUES
LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY WHILE GFS BEGINS TO BUILD DESERT SW RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE PERIOD
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOWING VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN
SAC VALLEY TO OVER 50 PERCENT IN SHASTA COUNTY.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
W-NW FLOW ALF WITH BROAD UPR TROF. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 191100
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD THURSDAY LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORCAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORCAL AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION MODIFIES A BIT.
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT
THE TREND IN THE MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TOWARD WEAKER
RIDGING AND LESS SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCES
POTENTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
EPAC INTO NORCAL. THE EC ADVERTISES SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SOUTH TO
AROUND I-80 WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS NORCAL
WHILE THE GFS LIMITS PRECIP TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS WEAK ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MAINTAINED OVER NORCAL. WE/LL MONITOR THESE
TRENDS THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR IN THE DELTA DUE TO STRATUS UNTIL 18Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SHASTA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 190415 CCA
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...DRY ELSEWHERE. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEEPENED OVER THE WEST COAST AND GENERATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH END OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. LATEST
NAM MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND BUTTE COUNTY NORTH AND TO
THE EAST.
FURTHER SOUTH A DECENT DELTA BREEZE CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT
THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BY 6 OR 8 DEGREES OVER WEDNESDAYS
HIGHS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR NORCAL.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY SITES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA TIL 08Z. WINDS WILL LESSEN
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IN THE DELTA MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-17Z BRINGING
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 190410
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...DRY ELSEWHERE. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEEPENED OVER THE WEST COAST AND GENERATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH END OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. LATEST
NAM MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND BUTTE COUNTY NORTH AND TO
THE EAST.
FURTHER SOUTH A DECENT DELTA BREEZE CONTINUES BUT WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT
THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE VALLEY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BY 6 OR 8 DEGREES OVER WEDNESDAYS
HIGHS.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR NORCAL.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY SITES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA TIL 08Z. WINDS WILL LESSEN
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IN THE DELTA MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-17Z BRINGING
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 182302
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
402 PM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...DRY ELSEWHERE. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST.
THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 0.50-0.75 INCHES. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING NEAR MT. SHASTA AND WILL SKIM NORTHERN
SHASTA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN
30-35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA EXTENDING EAST TO STOCKTON. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH OREGON TOMORROW KEEPING
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY DURING THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 80`S...BUT
REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80`S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORCAL
ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 90`S WITH CLEAR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR NORCAL.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY SITES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND 10-18 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
IN THE VALLEY AND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS OVER RIDGES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IN THE DELTA AND LOW CLOUDS
AROUND SACRAMENTO (ESPECIALLY BANKED UP AGAINST THE NEARBY
FOOTHILLS) MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 181629
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS PWATS REMAIN BELOW 1.00 INCHES. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW 80`S AND UPPER 70`S FOR VALLEYS. THESE VALUES ARE 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DELTA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...DRY ELSEWHERE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW WILL NEAR THE COAST
VICINITY THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE NORCAL COAST. A FAIRLY SHARP
SHORT-WAVE PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST WILL BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PWAT AROUND 3/4S OF AN INCH)
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE/LL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGE
WILL BE TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
MAINTAINING COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS ACROSS
NORCAL WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING FROM THE EPAC MOVES OVER NORCAL...
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL RETURN SOME COOLING TO THE REGION.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. ON FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY
SITES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATUS IN THE DELTA AND
POSSIBLY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND SACRAMENTO UNTIL 18Z BRINGING
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-25
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND 10-18 WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS IN THE VALLEY AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OVER RIDGES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 181112
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
412 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW WILL NEAR THE COAST
VICINITY THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE NORCAL COAST. A FAIRLY SHARP
SHORT-WAVE PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST WILL BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PWAT AROUND 3/4S OF AN INCH)
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.
FURTHER SOUTH...WE/LL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGE
WILL BE TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
MAINTAINING COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS ACROSS
NORCAL WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT-WAVE RIDGING FROM THE EPAC MOVES OVER NORCAL...
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEK
THAT WILL RETURN SOME COOLING TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATUS IN THE DELTA AND
POSSIBLY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND SACRAMENTO UNTIL 18Z BRINGING
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-25 WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE DELTA AND 10-18 WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS IN THE VALLEY AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OVER RIDGES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 180405
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING SOME SYNOPTIC COOLING TO THE REGION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DELTA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MODERATE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO HELP KEEP GIVE THE
DELTA AND SACRAMENTO REGION A LITTLE EXTRA COOLING. THE LOW WILL BRING
WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
BE BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. BY THURSDAY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. ON FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY
SITES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA IS
MODERATE RANGING 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. VALLEY WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 172308
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
408 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
OREGON/WASHINGTON. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1.00 INCHES. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THROUGH THE DELTA WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TRAVIS AFB.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH...LIMITED WITH MOISTURE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY AND NRN SIERRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO INCLUDING THUNDER...BUT
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO LOW. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 80`S
AND UPPER 70`S FOR VALLEYS...WHICH ARE 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DELTA.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80`S.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. ON FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY
SITES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA IS
MODERATE TO STRONG RANGING 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
VALLEY WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER SIERRA RIDGES. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 172259
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
359 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN SIERRA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
OREGON/WASHINGTON. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1.00 INCHES. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THROUGH THE DELTA WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TRAVIS AFB.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH...LIMITED WITH MOISTURE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY AND NRN SIERRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO INCLUDING THUNDER...BUT
INSTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 80`S
AND UPPER 70`S FOR VALLEYS...WHICH ARE 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DELTA.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH OREGON ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80`S.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. ON FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME VALLEY
SITES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CAUSE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA IS
MODERATE TO STRONG RANGING 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
VALLEY WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER SIERRA RIDGES. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 171604
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
OREGON/WASHINGTON. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
NO REAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...AS PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
1.00 INCHES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80`S FOR VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH DELTA BREEZE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DELTA. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. SOME VALLEY TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EPAC BRINGS A
LITTLE COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15
KNOTS EXCEPT THROUGH THE CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO
22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER SIERRA RIDGES.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 171102
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
402 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL TODAY
WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. ONLY MINOR SYNOPTIC
COOLING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD 130W LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SATIMG SHOWS MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO FILL ALONG THE COAST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE COOLING
TODAY IN THE DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE OREGON COAST ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORCAL WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS
AND THICKNESSES LOWER CONSIDERABLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. THE INCREASING ONSHORE GRADIENT AND STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH END OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY OF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LEADING TO
A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE LESS BREEZY...THOUGH
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL. SOME VALLEY TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EPAC BRINGS A
LITTLE COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15
KNOTS EXCEPT THROUGH THE CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA SOUTHWEST
WINDS 12 TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...STRONGEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 170450
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
950 PM PDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
FT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER WAS REALLY BEATEN DOWN
FROM OVER 2 KFT TO AROUND 1 KFT ON SUN...SO MAX TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY
WARMER BY A COUPLE OF DEG THAN ON SAT IN THE DELTA INFLUENCE
AREAS...AND LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MOST OTHER LOCALES.
THE MARINE LAYER IS BEGINNING TO REFORM OFF THE COAST AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILL-IN OVERNITE AND MON. MINOR SYNOPTIC COOLING EXPECTED
ON MON...LEADING TO SLIGHT COOLING WITH THE MOST COOLING OF A
HANDFUL OF DEG EXPECTED IN THE DELTA INFLUENCE AREAS AS THE DELTA
BREEZE WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE JUST A COUPLE TO FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL.
THEN...FULL-SCALE...FULL-BLOWN...SELL-OUT COOLING ON TUE AS THE
UPPER LOW NEARS THE N COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. BIG DROP IN 850
MBS TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ON TUE COMPARED TO MON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE SOME 8-14 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON TUE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING DELTA BREEZE ON TUE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING A
MARINE STRATUS INTRUSION INTO THE VALLEY TUE MORNING. JHM
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE DEEP
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. TEMPERATURES
AT MID-AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY/S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH READINGS IN THE DELTA AND SOUTH VALLEY
ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS THE MARINE LAYER IS A BIT
MORE SHALLOW AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN COOLING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NORCAL ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHT SYNOPTIC COOLING AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE OREGON COAST ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
INLAND OVER THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORCAL
WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH END OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT TODAY. THUS, THERE IS IMPROVED CONFIDENCE
THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PEAK OF HEAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS AROUND THE MID 90S AND MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 90S - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKC CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
15 KNOTS EXCEPT THROUGH THE CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA WEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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