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000
FXUS62 KTAE 190315
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Clouds will increase overnight as a Gulf Low approaches from the
southwest. The increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a
few degrees warmer than last night, with lows generally in the
lower to mid 40s.


&&

.Aviation...[Through 00z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Clouds will
increase in the morning hours. Rain showers will move into the
area toward the end of the TAF period.


&&

.Prev Discussion [440 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.


.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 190315
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Clouds will increase overnight as a Gulf Low approaches from the
southwest. The increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a
few degrees warmer than last night, with lows generally in the
lower to mid 40s.


&&

.Aviation...[Through 00z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Clouds will
increase in the morning hours. Rain showers will move into the
area toward the end of the TAF period.


&&

.Prev Discussion [440 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.


.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 190315
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Clouds will increase overnight as a Gulf Low approaches from the
southwest. The increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a
few degrees warmer than last night, with lows generally in the
lower to mid 40s.


&&

.Aviation...[Through 00z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Clouds will
increase in the morning hours. Rain showers will move into the
area toward the end of the TAF period.


&&

.Prev Discussion [440 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.


.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 182140
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High clouds will continue to stream across the forecast area
overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving through Texas. The
increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer than last night, with lows generally in the lower to mid
40s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] Weak high pressure at the surface will keep
winds light, but divergence aloft will keep upper level clouds in
place through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 182140
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High clouds will continue to stream across the forecast area
overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving through Texas. The
increase in clouds will likely keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer than last night, with lows generally in the lower to mid
40s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The deamplifying shortwave that will be passing just north of our
area in the short term period is currently pushing into New
Mexico. Some rain and a few thunderstorms have also developed near
coastal Louisiana near and north of a surface front as isentropic
ascent increases in advance of the approaching wave. Through the
period, the stronger isentropic ascent and lower condensation
pressure deficits in the 295-300K planes will be situated N/NW of
our forecast area. Combined with the weakening nature of the
passing shortwave aloft, we expect PoPs to mainly be in the
"chance" (<55%) range - except far north - and rainfall to be
fairly light. It seems like locales along and north of a line from
Dothan to Albany could see a steady, light rain from Friday Night
into Saturday morning, while southeastern parts of our area could
remain dry through much of the period. High temperatures should
stay in the 50s in the northern parts of our area where cloud
cover and rain will be more persistent, with highs closer to
normal over the remainder of the area.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As a trough in the central US continues to amplify west of our
area, with several shortwaves digging into the base of the
trough, we may see a couple more rounds of rain until the synoptic
cold front ultimately moves through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. One round looks likely from Sunday night into Monday
morning along and just north of a stalled surface front. The best
chances of rain in that timeframe would be in the southeast part
of our area, and a few thunderstorms will also be possible. The
next round of rain would be most likely Tuesday or Tuesday Night
ahead of the main cold front. Again, thunderstorms would be
possible. Temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday may be slightly
above normal, falling to below normal in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] Weak high pressure at the surface will keep
winds light, but divergence aloft will keep upper level clouds in
place through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds should generally remain around 10 knots (+/- 5kt) through
much of the forecast period. While that should not be enough for
any hazard headlines, the winds should be sufficient for a light
chop on protected waters and seas around 2 feet.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week. Low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase over the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  66  46  66  51 /   0  10  20  40  30
Panama City   48  61  52  64  54 /  10  30  30  40  20
Dothan        43  58  47  60  48 /  10  40  70  50  20
Albany        40  62  46  61  46 /   0  30  70  60  30
Valdosta      40  65  47  64  52 /   0  10  20  40  30
Cross City    41  70  46  70  57 /   0  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  47  64  54  66  58 /   0  10  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Band of high clouds across the Big Bend and south central Georgia
this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. These clouds are expected to thin out during the
afternoon, which should still allow for temperatures to reach the
lower to mid 60s for most locations. Other than minor temperature
adjustments, no changes are needed to the forecast for today, with
dry conditions and very light winds in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.


.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.


.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Band of high clouds across the Big Bend and south central Georgia
this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. These clouds are expected to thin out during the
afternoon, which should still allow for temperatures to reach the
lower to mid 60s for most locations. Other than minor temperature
adjustments, no changes are needed to the forecast for today, with
dry conditions and very light winds in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.


.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.


.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 170925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a very warm day across the region on Tuesday where high temps
shot up into the mid to upper 70s in many locations (highs which
were 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year), a cold
front continues to push southeastward through our area tonight. A
ridge of high pressure behind this front will give us plenty of
sunshine today, but high temps will return right back to normal
levels, which are the lower to middle 60s for mid December. It will
still be a fairly pleasant day for outdoor activities, however, as
winds will be light out of the N and NW.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Very simplistic aviation forecast over the
next 24 hours, as a very thin patch of cirrus moves through the
terminals overnight behind the passing cold front. Unlimited VFR
conditions with light winds are expected for at least the entire
period.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 170925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a very warm day across the region on Tuesday where high temps
shot up into the mid to upper 70s in many locations (highs which
were 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year), a cold
front continues to push southeastward through our area tonight. A
ridge of high pressure behind this front will give us plenty of
sunshine today, but high temps will return right back to normal
levels, which are the lower to middle 60s for mid December. It will
still be a fairly pleasant day for outdoor activities, however, as
winds will be light out of the N and NW.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Very simplistic aviation forecast over the
next 24 hours, as a very thin patch of cirrus moves through the
terminals overnight behind the passing cold front. Unlimited VFR
conditions with light winds are expected for at least the entire
period.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 170221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region.
Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of
temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling
to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west
of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40
degrees away from the coast elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.


.Marine...

Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola
tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On
Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-
pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night
or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   44  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        37  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    40  66  38  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 170221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region.
Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of
temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling
to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west
of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40
degrees away from the coast elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.


.Marine...

Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola
tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On
Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-
pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night
or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   44  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        37  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    40  66  38  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 162110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cold front will exit the southeastern Big Bend by late this
afternoon with a cooler air mass filtering in overnight. Cold air
advection will not be all that strong behind this front, as the
bulk of the cooler air is shunted north of the area in a zonal
upper pattern. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the
western zones, to the lower 40s for the southeast half of the CWA.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Cold front has pushed through all area
terminal except KVLD. Expect some showers and MVFR CIGS through
about 20Z at KVLD. Thereafter (and elsewhere), VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty westerly
winds (up to around 18kt) can be expected this afternoon before
dropping off early this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Winds around 15 knots will be possible tonight, before the winds
diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will
increase again with the approach of a low-pressure system with
SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   45  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        38  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    43  66  38  68  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 162110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cold front will exit the southeastern Big Bend by late this
afternoon with a cooler air mass filtering in overnight. Cold air
advection will not be all that strong behind this front, as the
bulk of the cooler air is shunted north of the area in a zonal
upper pattern. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the
western zones, to the lower 40s for the southeast half of the CWA.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Cold front has pushed through all area
terminal except KVLD. Expect some showers and MVFR CIGS through
about 20Z at KVLD. Thereafter (and elsewhere), VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty westerly
winds (up to around 18kt) can be expected this afternoon before
dropping off early this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Winds around 15 knots will be possible tonight, before the winds
diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will
increase again with the approach of a low-pressure system with
SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   45  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        38  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    43  66  38  68  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 161540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Cold front currently stretches from just west of Albany to just
west of Apalachicola. A narrow band of scattered showers is
leading the front as it tracks east across the forecast area. This
band will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon
with the best rain chances from Albany to Tallahassee and points
eastward. Highs should still reach the lower to mid 70s ahead of
the front, with mid 60s in its wake.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Dense fog at KVLD and KTLH has burned off
with VFR conditions at most terminals. A front is crossing the
region this morning, with a brief period of MVFR cigs and SHRA
possible as it passes. The front should be through KTLH by 18Z and
KVLD between 21-00Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
in the wake of the front.

&&

.Prev Discussion [432 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.


.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  50   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 161540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Cold front currently stretches from just west of Albany to just
west of Apalachicola. A narrow band of scattered showers is
leading the front as it tracks east across the forecast area. This
band will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon
with the best rain chances from Albany to Tallahassee and points
eastward. Highs should still reach the lower to mid 70s ahead of
the front, with mid 60s in its wake.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Dense fog at KVLD and KTLH has burned off
with VFR conditions at most terminals. A front is crossing the
region this morning, with a brief period of MVFR cigs and SHRA
possible as it passes. The front should be through KTLH by 18Z and
KVLD between 21-00Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
in the wake of the front.

&&

.Prev Discussion [432 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.


.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  50   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD










000
FXUS62 KTAE 161540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Cold front currently stretches from just west of Albany to just
west of Apalachicola. A narrow band of scattered showers is
leading the front as it tracks east across the forecast area. This
band will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon
with the best rain chances from Albany to Tallahassee and points
eastward. Highs should still reach the lower to mid 70s ahead of
the front, with mid 60s in its wake.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Dense fog at KVLD and KTLH has burned off
with VFR conditions at most terminals. A front is crossing the
region this morning, with a brief period of MVFR cigs and SHRA
possible as it passes. The front should be through KTLH by 18Z and
KVLD between 21-00Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
in the wake of the front.

&&

.Prev Discussion [432 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.


.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  50   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD










000
FXUS62 KTAE 161540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Cold front currently stretches from just west of Albany to just
west of Apalachicola. A narrow band of scattered showers is
leading the front as it tracks east across the forecast area. This
band will continue east through the remainder of the afternoon
with the best rain chances from Albany to Tallahassee and points
eastward. Highs should still reach the lower to mid 70s ahead of
the front, with mid 60s in its wake.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] Dense fog at KVLD and KTLH has burned off
with VFR conditions at most terminals. A front is crossing the
region this morning, with a brief period of MVFR cigs and SHRA
possible as it passes. The front should be through KTLH by 18Z and
KVLD between 21-00Z. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
in the wake of the front.

&&

.Prev Discussion [432 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.


.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  50   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 160932
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An area of Dense Fog has formed across the SE FL Big Bend
overnight, and this area has been very gradually building off to
the NW during the last few hours. In fact, had to update the Dense
Fog Advisory to include Madison and Jefferson counties, and with
the Tallahassee Regional Airport (TLH) now reporting a Vis of 1/4
mile, may need to consider expanding this hazard into Leon and
Wakulla counties as well before the morning rush hour is upon us.
Other than the above mentioned fog, the major weather maker for
today will be a weak cold front which will move from NW to SE from
MS and AL into our region today. This cold front is extremely weak
and starved for moisture as its primary shortwave continues to
eject northeastward into the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, this front
has managed to maintain a thin band of showers just out ahead of
it, and with just a little bit of daytime insolation, see little
reason why this band will not hold together in some form. At this
time only showers are expected (no thunder with the very limited
instability) and due to the extreme narrowness of the band, total
QPF should be on the order of only 0.05" to 0.15" of rain, with
the greatest amounts across extreme NW portions of the CWA.
Additionally, once any fog and low cloudiness burns off, temps
should be quite warm for this time of year, with highs ranging
from around 70 degrees well to the north, to the middle 70s over
much of the interior away from the immediate coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Wednesday] Original thinking was that VFR conditions
would prevail through the period, but as we approach sunrise on
Tuesday morning, both TLH and VLD have dropped down to LIFR levels
from the dense fog which formed earlier over the SE FL Big Bend. At
the other terminals, MVFR conditions are likely to develop as some
low cloudiness out ahead of a weak cold front which will move in
from the west today with a few showers will likely lower Cigs and
possibly Vis just a bit this morning. This pre-frontal band of
clouds should also help to break up the LIFR level Vis now at TLH
and VLD. By tonight, once this cold front pushes on through, a
return to VFR conditions is expected areawide for the rest of the
period.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.

&&

.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  50   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 160932
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An area of Dense Fog has formed across the SE FL Big Bend
overnight, and this area has been very gradually building off to
the NW during the last few hours. In fact, had to update the Dense
Fog Advisory to include Madison and Jefferson counties, and with
the Tallahassee Regional Airport (TLH) now reporting a Vis of 1/4
mile, may need to consider expanding this hazard into Leon and
Wakulla counties as well before the morning rush hour is upon us.
Other than the above mentioned fog, the major weather maker for
today will be a weak cold front which will move from NW to SE from
MS and AL into our region today. This cold front is extremely weak
and starved for moisture as its primary shortwave continues to
eject northeastward into the Great Lakes. Nevertheless, this front
has managed to maintain a thin band of showers just out ahead of
it, and with just a little bit of daytime insolation, see little
reason why this band will not hold together in some form. At this
time only showers are expected (no thunder with the very limited
instability) and due to the extreme narrowness of the band, total
QPF should be on the order of only 0.05" to 0.15" of rain, with
the greatest amounts across extreme NW portions of the CWA.
Additionally, once any fog and low cloudiness burns off, temps
should be quite warm for this time of year, with highs ranging
from around 70 degrees well to the north, to the middle 70s over
much of the interior away from the immediate coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term period behind the
front with high pressure the dominant feature. Clearing skies are
expected tonight with mostly clear skies lasting through Wednesday
night. Clouds are expected to start to increase somewhat on Thursday
in association with the next system. Seasonal temperatures are
expected.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The next system of interest is still expected to arrive between the
Friday night and Saturday time frame. There are still some
disagreements on the strength of this system, although the last
couple of ECMWF runs have trended weaker. Nevertheless, measurable
rain chances still look fairly good on Saturday, so PoPs continue to
creep upward. There may be just enough instability for an isolated
thunderstorm or two, mainly over the western and southwestern
portions of the area. This system is expected to exit the area with
a brief break in the action before another system approaches on
Monday or next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be mostly near
seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Wednesday] Original thinking was that VFR conditions
would prevail through the period, but as we approach sunrise on
Tuesday morning, both TLH and VLD have dropped down to LIFR levels
from the dense fog which formed earlier over the SE FL Big Bend. At
the other terminals, MVFR conditions are likely to develop as some
low cloudiness out ahead of a weak cold front which will move in
from the west today with a few showers will likely lower Cigs and
possibly Vis just a bit this morning. This pre-frontal band of
clouds should also help to break up the LIFR level Vis now at TLH
and VLD. By tonight, once this cold front pushes on through, a
return to VFR conditions is expected areawide for the rest of the
period.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will increase behind a cold frontal passage today
with exercise caution conditions west of Apalachicola through the
morning hours. Winds will then decrease for Wednesday and Thursday
before increasing again on Friday and Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches the area.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With plenty of low level moisture and scattered showers in the area
today, clearly no fire weather concerns are expected. In fact, even
the cooler and drier air, which is expected to return for the rest
of the week, should have little or no impact as well, with afternoon
relative humidities remaining safely above critical thresholds.

&&

.Hydrology...
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system will bring a few showers to the region today. A better chance
of rain is expected on Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  40  65  37  68 /  40   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  46  62  47  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Dothan        71  38  61  39  64 /  50   0   0   0  10
Albany        73  37  63  35  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  39  64  38  66 /  40  10   0   0   0
Cross City    73  42  66  38  67 /  20  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  46  62  45  65 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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