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000
FXUS62 KTAE 071427
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND FROM
YESTERDAY OF DECREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
GENERALLY WELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANCE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS SLIGHTLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED CONVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM, WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [627 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  20  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  20  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 071427
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE OVERALL TREND FROM
YESTERDAY OF DECREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
GENERALLY WELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANCE WAS TO TRIM BACK POPS SLIGHTLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED CONVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM, WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [627 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  20  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  20  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 071027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [320 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG
BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 071027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [320 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG
BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 071027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [320 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG
BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 071027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DHN, ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT TLH AND VLD THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [320 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG
BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 070720
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS,
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG
BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL DO TWO THINGS: (1) RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND (2) RESULT IN HIGH HUMIDITIES AND
THUS HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, WE`LL RELY ON THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE GENERALLY WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, SEABREEZE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVIER THAN USUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MAY BE SLOW MOVING. SOME
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS IN PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURSTS.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GRADUALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE READINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH. EXPECT READINGS ON AVERAGE AROUND 105
EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO HAVING A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF SOME SORT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WHICH WILL
REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND KEEP THE SEABREEZES PINNED NEAR THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SO, IN GENERAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN MAY
CHANGE, WITH A TROUGH BUILDING IN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTING
IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT DHN, ABY AND VLD THIS MORNING AFTER WHICH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT TLH AND
VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   94  75  96  75  95 /  40  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  78  90  77  90 /  30  10  30  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  96  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  40
ALBANY        95  74  96  74  97 /  30  10  20  20  40
VALDOSTA      94  73  96  74  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    93  74  94  74  94 /  50  20  50  30  30
APALACHICOLA  92  77  92  77  91 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 070236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TONIGHT]...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS RATHER SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD
DIMINISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. THIS HAS SET UP CLEAR
SKIES, OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, OTHERWISE THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [327 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE LAST WEEK WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER A RIBBON OF
REMNANT +PV WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
AND LOWER TIER GEORGIA ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNER`S AREA ON
MONDAY. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO THERE
ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   77  90  76  89  76 /  10  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
ALBANY        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      72  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  94  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  90  76 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 070236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TONIGHT]...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS RATHER SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAD
DIMINISHED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. THIS HAS SET UP CLEAR
SKIES, OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, OTHERWISE THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [327 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE LAST WEEK WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER A RIBBON OF
REMNANT +PV WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
AND LOWER TIER GEORGIA ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNER`S AREA ON
MONDAY. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO THERE
ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   77  90  76  89  76 /  10  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
ALBANY        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      72  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  94  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  90  76 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061927
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE LAST WEEK WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER A RIBBON OF
REMNANT +PV WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
AND LOWER TIER GEORGIA ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNER`S AREA ON
MONDAY. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR KLH
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR VLD...BUT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO THERE
ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   76  90  76  89  76 /  10  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        71  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
ALBANY        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      72  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  94  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  90  76 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061927
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE LAST WEEK WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER A RIBBON OF
REMNANT +PV WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
AND LOWER TIER GEORGIA ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AREAS BOTH DAYS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON FRIDAY. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNER`S AREA ON
MONDAY. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR KLH
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR VLD...BUT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO THERE
ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   76  90  76  89  76 /  10  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        71  95  74  95  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
ALBANY        72  95  74  95  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
VALDOSTA      72  94  74  95  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  94  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  93  76  90  76 /   0  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 061419
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO MUCH OF THE INLAND BIG BEND AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING WAS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB
COULD HELP SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [636 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PETERSON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...
AVIATION...WESTON/PETERSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061419
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO MUCH OF THE INLAND BIG BEND AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING WAS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB
COULD HELP SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [636 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PETERSON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...
AVIATION...WESTON/PETERSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061419
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND COMBINE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR INDICATES BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO MUCH OF THE INLAND BIG BEND AREA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS.

THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING WAS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUT DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 850-700 MB
COULD HELP SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]...ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [636 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...PETERSON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...
AVIATION...WESTON/PETERSON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 061036
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
636 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]... IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ABY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 14Z. GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT TLH, ECP AND VLD THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE SITES WITH VCTS AT ABY AND DHN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WEAKENS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL
FAVOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE
FLORIDA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6 C/KM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061036
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
636 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY]... IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ABY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 14Z. GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT TLH, ECP AND VLD THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE SITES WITH VCTS AT ABY AND DHN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [329 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WEAKENS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL
FAVOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE
FLORIDA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6 C/KM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 060729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WEAKENS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL
FAVOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE
FLORIDA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6 C/KM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY]

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 060729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WEAKENS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER WILL
FAVOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE
FLORIDA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6 C/KM, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE OPENED UP
AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. A RIBBON
OF REMNANT +PV FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL FORCE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANOMALY WESTWARD, BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR, TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO KEEP
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. A MUGGY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH DAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

IN GENERAL, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED UP TO THE
END THE WEEK, WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND.
INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS CAN`T SEEM TO AGREE ON HOW LONG THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL HOLD. EITHER WAY, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
SHOULD BE QUITE HOT TO END THE WEEK. UPPER 90S WILL BE LIKELY AND
A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY]

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ONLY SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT SO
THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. IN GENERAL, THERE ARE NO
FORESEEABLE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MINOR,
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  73  94  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   88  78  89  75  89 /  40  10  30  10  30
DOTHAN        90  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        91  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  40  20  40
VALDOSTA      91  72  95  73  95 /  50  20  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    92  73  93  72  93 /  40  20  50  20  40
APALACHICOLA  89  77  90  75  90 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 060148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTER A FAIRLY EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION AND SET UP A DRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BASED ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
VFR CUMULUS FIELD TOMORROW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ECP, TLH, AND VLD MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.


.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  20  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      69  91  71  94  73 /  10  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  75  89  75  89  76 /  10  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 060148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTER A FAIRLY EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION AND SET UP A DRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BASED ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
VFR CUMULUS FIELD TOMORROW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ECP, TLH, AND VLD MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.


.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  20  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      69  91  71  94  73 /  10  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  75  89  75  89  76 /  10  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 060148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTER A FAIRLY EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION AND SET UP A DRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BASED ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
VFR CUMULUS FIELD TOMORROW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ECP, TLH, AND VLD MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.


.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  20  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      69  91  71  94  73 /  10  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  75  89  75  89  76 /  10  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 060148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTER A FAIRLY EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION AND SET UP A DRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BASED ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
VFR CUMULUS FIELD TOMORROW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ECP, TLH, AND VLD MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.


.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  20  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      69  91  71  94  73 /  10  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  75  89  75  89  76 /  10  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 051952
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND RECEIVED RAIN WITH A LARGE AREA
OF STRATIFORM RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER, CONTINUING AS OF THIS
WRITING. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF MOB`S CWA AND WAS MOVING EAST. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS
THINNING OVER OUR SE AL AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING SO WILL ONLY SHOW POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-40%)
FROM 00-06Z. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING, BUT LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER BEHIND THEM FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS PASSED. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 30 MPH
GUSTS WHEN STORMS ARE ON TOP OF TLH AND VLD. DHN, ABY, AND ECP ARE
IN THE LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL CLEAR SHORTLY. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER SHOWERS ARE DONE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF ROUND OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WHERE RAIN WAS
HEAVIEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  30  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  30  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  40  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  40  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      70  91  71  94  73 /  30  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  30  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  74  89  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 051952
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATER THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND RECEIVED RAIN WITH A LARGE AREA
OF STRATIFORM RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER, CONTINUING AS OF THIS
WRITING. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF MOB`S CWA AND WAS MOVING EAST. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS
THINNING OVER OUR SE AL AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING SO WILL ONLY SHOW POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-40%)
FROM 00-06Z. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING, BUT LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER BEHIND THEM FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS PASSED. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 30 MPH
GUSTS WHEN STORMS ARE ON TOP OF TLH AND VLD. DHN, ABY, AND ECP ARE
IN THE LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL CLEAR SHORTLY. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER SHOWERS ARE DONE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF ROUND OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WHERE RAIN WAS
HEAVIEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  30  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  30  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  40  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  40  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      70  91  71  94  73 /  30  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  30  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  74  89  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 051438
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY OVER TENNESSEE VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IN TENNESSEE WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, DOWN TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
CONVECTION LIGHTING UP ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING, TRENDING WITH
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
REACHED OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE IS PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO FEED THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH IS ALREADY PRESENT AS
WELL- WITH THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 23 KTS, WHICH IS HIGH FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THERE BEING SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THESE STORMS APPROACH SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH STORMS AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
WARM TO THE LOW 90S IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [637 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH
AND VLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY,
THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS.
EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  80  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  70  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  50  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  70  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 051438
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY OVER TENNESSEE VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IN TENNESSEE WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, DOWN TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
CONVECTION LIGHTING UP ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING, TRENDING WITH
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
REACHED OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE IS PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO FEED THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH IS ALREADY PRESENT AS
WELL- WITH THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 23 KTS, WHICH IS HIGH FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THERE BEING SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THESE STORMS APPROACH SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH STORMS AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
WARM TO THE LOW 90S IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [637 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH
AND VLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY,
THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS.
EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  80  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  70  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  50  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  70  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 051037
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]...

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH AND VLD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY, THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG
WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY
CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [340 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS AN IMPRESSIVE +PV
ANOMALY THAT PRESENTS VERY WELL ON VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CORE OF THIS
ANOMALY IS PUNCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAKER ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE IS A VERY MESSY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LITTERED WITH REMNANT COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALY. AS THE SECOND
ANOMALY SUPERPOSITIONS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST ANOMALY, A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN RIBBON OF +PV WILL BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS ANOMALY WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-30
KNOTS, COINCIDENT WITH A TONGUE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS. THESE
LATER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OR BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER CONVECTION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  70  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  60  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  60  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 051037
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]...

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH AND VLD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY, THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG
WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY
CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [340 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS AN IMPRESSIVE +PV
ANOMALY THAT PRESENTS VERY WELL ON VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CORE OF THIS
ANOMALY IS PUNCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAKER ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE IS A VERY MESSY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LITTERED WITH REMNANT COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALY. AS THE SECOND
ANOMALY SUPERPOSITIONS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST ANOMALY, A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN RIBBON OF +PV WILL BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS ANOMALY WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-30
KNOTS, COINCIDENT WITH A TONGUE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS. THESE
LATER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OR BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER CONVECTION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  70  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  60  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  60  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 050740
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS AN IMPRESSIVE +PV
ANOMALY THAT PRESENTS VERY WELL ON VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CORE OF THIS
ANOMALY IS PUNCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAKER ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE IS A VERY MESSY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LITTERED WITH REMNANT COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALY. AS THE SECOND
ANOMALY SUPERPOSITIONS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST ANOMALY, A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN RIBBON OF +PV WILL BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS ANOMALY WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-30
KNOTS, COINCIDENT WITH A TONGUE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS. THESE
LATER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OR BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER CONVECTION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] A WELL DEFINED STRATUS DECK, OR AREA OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL MOSTLY SCATTER BY 13Z, JUST AHEAD OF A LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN IT`S WAKE SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WRT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH
THEY`LL LIKELY FORM AFTER 06Z IF AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  70  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  60  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  60  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 050740
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS AN IMPRESSIVE +PV
ANOMALY THAT PRESENTS VERY WELL ON VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CORE OF THIS
ANOMALY IS PUNCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAKER ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE IS A VERY MESSY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LITTERED WITH REMNANT COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALY. AS THE SECOND
ANOMALY SUPERPOSITIONS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST ANOMALY, A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN RIBBON OF +PV WILL BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS ANOMALY WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-30
KNOTS, COINCIDENT WITH A TONGUE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS. THESE
LATER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OR BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER CONVECTION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] A WELL DEFINED STRATUS DECK, OR AREA OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL MOSTLY SCATTER BY 13Z, JUST AHEAD OF A LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IN IT`S WAKE SCATTERED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WRT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH
THEY`LL LIKELY FORM AFTER 06Z IF AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  70  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  60  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  60  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 041937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS TO THE
APPALACHIANS, INCREASING THE LLJ OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
LIES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR OUR CWA NORTHERN BORDER. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WE ALSO
HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTH FLORIDA SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND.
MODERATE 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP FEED GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE SEA BREEZE STORMS AND THOSE FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG SBCAPE
OVER OUR AREA AND THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT, WE
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CLEAR OUT OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET, BUT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER ONE
ARRIVING ON MONDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
MOS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND GOOD CHANCE
(50%) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST
UNDER SEASONAL LEVELS (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES, A NARROW RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S) WITH NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO POPS (30-
40%).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY, WITH STORMS NEAR DHN
AND ABY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR-MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KTS OR MORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT DHN
AND VLD. SUNDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EARLY
START, AROUND 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  72  92  73 /  20  70  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  85  77  87  76 /  20  50  30  40  20
DOTHAN        72  87  71  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
ALBANY        72  88  71  90  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
VALDOSTA      71  91  71  92  72 /  30  60  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    73  91  73  92  73 /  20  60  30  50  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 041937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS TO THE
APPALACHIANS, INCREASING THE LLJ OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
LIES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR OUR CWA NORTHERN BORDER. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WE ALSO
HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTH FLORIDA SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND.
MODERATE 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP FEED GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE SEA BREEZE STORMS AND THOSE FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG SBCAPE
OVER OUR AREA AND THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT, WE
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CLEAR OUT OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET, BUT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER ONE
ARRIVING ON MONDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
MOS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND GOOD CHANCE
(50%) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST
UNDER SEASONAL LEVELS (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES, A NARROW RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S) WITH NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO POPS (30-
40%).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY, WITH STORMS NEAR DHN
AND ABY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR-MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KTS OR MORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT DHN
AND VLD. SUNDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EARLY
START, AROUND 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  72  92  73 /  20  70  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  85  77  87  76 /  20  50  30  40  20
DOTHAN        72  87  71  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
ALBANY        72  88  71  90  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
VALDOSTA      71  91  71  92  72 /  30  60  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    73  91  73  92  73 /  20  60  30  50  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 041937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS TO THE
APPALACHIANS, INCREASING THE LLJ OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
LIES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR OUR CWA NORTHERN BORDER. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WE ALSO
HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTH FLORIDA SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND.
MODERATE 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP FEED GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE SEA BREEZE STORMS AND THOSE FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG SBCAPE
OVER OUR AREA AND THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT, WE
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CLEAR OUT OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET, BUT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER ONE
ARRIVING ON MONDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
MOS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND GOOD CHANCE
(50%) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST
UNDER SEASONAL LEVELS (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES, A NARROW RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S) WITH NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO POPS (30-
40%).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY, WITH STORMS NEAR DHN
AND ABY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR-MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KTS OR MORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT DHN
AND VLD. SUNDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EARLY
START, AROUND 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  72  92  73 /  20  70  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  85  77  87  76 /  20  50  30  40  20
DOTHAN        72  87  71  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
ALBANY        72  88  71  90  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
VALDOSTA      71  91  71  92  72 /  30  60  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    73  91  73  92  73 /  20  60  30  50  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




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