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000
FXUS62 KTAE 230653
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are on tap for today as
the region remains situated between high pressure to the north, a
nor`easter off the New England coast, and lower pressure over the
southern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        75  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221934
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The main forecast concern was low temperatures for tonight, as high
pressure building in will keep skies clear with no precipitation.
The 12Z Tallahassee sounding had PWAT of 0.42", and that is expected
to drop to around 0.25" by 12Z tomorrow morning. Those values of
precipitable water are near minimum values in the radiosonde record
for this time of October. Given the lack of atmospheric moisture,
relatively light or calm winds overnight, and clear skies,
radiational cooling should be very efficient overnight. For this
reason we trended the forecast closer to the cooler ECMWF MOS. This
produce widespread lows in the lower 40s, except closer to the
low-mid 50s right at the Gulf coast. Also, low temperatures in the
city of Tallahassee could be about 10 degrees warmer than at the TLH
airport (low 50s vs low 40s).


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    44  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The morning sounding from Tallahassee showed a PWAT of 0.42
inches, which is very close to the 10th percentile for the 2 week
period centered on October 22nd (0.47"). In other words, the
moisture content in the atmosphere is anomalously low for this
time of year, and that means another day of dry weather and sunny
skies. In fact, 18 of the 21 days so far in October have seen no
measurable precipitation at TLH, and we should add another today.
Despite that, rainfall for the month is still above normal thanks
to the 4.72" of rain that fell back on the 14th. High temperatures
today should be cooler than yesterday as a surface high pressure
builds south into the region. Highs should be mostly in the 70s,
with a few highs around 80 possible in our Florida zones.

&&

.Prev Discussion [234 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In general, an upper level trough will dominate the Southeast
through Friday. The only exception will be a brief period of
nearly zonal flow on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail, albeit weak. Dry air aloft, and northerly low-layer flow
will preclude any rain chances. Afternoon highs will remain a few
degrees below average, in the middle to upper 70s. More noticeable,
overnight lows will run about 10 degrees below average, dipping
into the middle 40s each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period.


.Marine...

On-and-off cautionary level winds should be expected for the next
several days as high pressure builds south into the northern Gulf,
with winds increasing between it and newly formed TD 9 currently
in the Bay of Campeche.


.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a dry
cold front. At this time, humidity values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.


.Hydrology...

No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Subsequently, there
will be no hydrological concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  44  77  44  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   79  53  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        75  44  75  45  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        74  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      77  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    81  45  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220634
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A slightly cooler and drier airmass will push into the region today
as high pressure drops south towards the Gulf Coast in the wake of
the deep low off the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures should be 5-7
degrees cooler than Tuesday afternoon under clear skies and light
northeasterly winds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In general, an upper level trough will dominate the Southeast
through Friday. The only exception will be a brief period of
nearly zonal flow on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail, albeit weak. Dry air aloft, and northerly low-layer flow
will preclude any rain chances. Afternoon highs will remain a few
degrees below average, in the middle to upper 70s. More noticeable,
overnight lows will run about 10 degrees below average, dipping
into the middle 40s each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

On-and-off cautionary level winds should be expected for the next
several days as high pressure builds south into the northern Gulf,
with winds increasing between it and newly formed TD 9 currently
in the Bay of Campeche.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a dry
cold front. At this time, humidity values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Subsequently, there
will be no hydrological concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  44  77  44  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   80  53  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        76  44  75  45  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        75  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      77  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    82  45  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220240
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track, and expect a generally clear and
cool night with near calm winds across the Tri-State area. The only
concern will be across the Coastal Waters, where winds may approach
cautionary levels towards morning.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will
dominate the tafs through the period. Winds will begin to increase
a bit out of the N-NE at most sites Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through
on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry
airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs
both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass
in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night
will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to
the lower 50s along the coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves
through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday
night, especially farther offshore.


.Fire Weather...
Progressively drier air will continue to filter into
the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are
expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for
Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  80  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  81  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Skies have remained sunny across much of the area today with a
relatively dry air mass in place. This is expected to continue
through tonight with the deeper moisture positioned to the south
over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Given the dry
air mass, clear skies, and calm winds, we expect a fairly cool
night with below normal temperatures. The low temperature forecast
calls for upper 40s north, to around 50 in the I-10 corridor, to
the low to mid 50s at the coast. We followed the general pattern
of the multi-model consensus, but undercut it by a degree or two
given the favorable conditions for efficient radiational cooling.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through
on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry
airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs
both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass
in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night
will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to
the lower 50s along the coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with clear skies are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Northwest to north
winds around 5-10 knots will become calm overnight.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves
through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday
night, especially farther offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Progressively drier air will continue to filter into
the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are
expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for
Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  80  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  81  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The first few frames of morning visible satellite reveal that our
forecast area is situated just north of a more extensive mid-high
level cloud deck associated with a deeper moisture plume and upper
level jet streak. This should provide a sunny day with very
limited cloud cover. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding did reveal +1C
temperature change below 850mb as compared to 24 hours prior. The
slight warming of the boundary layer and sunny skies should lead
to a slightly warmer day with highs in the low-mid 80s, which is
just above normal for this time of year.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become
vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and
off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will
continue to reside on the backside of the associated though
through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually
transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will
keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area
through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down
from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the
region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold
frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both
days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in
place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will
range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s
along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along
the coast.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR
visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear
skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF.


.Marine...

Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the
work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday
and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and
Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met,
duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high
dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold
front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this
time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be
exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high
dispersion indices.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  51  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  59  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        82  50  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  49  77  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  51  77  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  53  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  59  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 210629
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream shortwave trough axis presents very well this
morning via WV analysis. As of 06z, deep layer drying, resultant
from the subsiding air on the backside of the wave, was along our
northern Alabama and Georgia counties. This dry air will overspread
the region today and mix down to the surface, resulting in relative
humidity levels 10+% lower than yesterday afternoon. High
temperatures will be a smidge warmer than yesterday, ranging from
the mid 80s in the southeast Big Bend, to lower 80s across southeast
Alabama. Expect no rain, with little to no cloud cover (outside of
the eastern Big Bend) as well.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become
vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and
off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will
continue to reside on the backside of the associated though
through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually
transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will
keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area
through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down
from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the
region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold
frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both
days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in
place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will
range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s
along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along
the coast.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR
visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear
skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the
work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday
and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and
Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met,
duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high
dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold
front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this
time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be
exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high
dispersion indices.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  51  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  59  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  50  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        81  49  77  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  51  77  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  53  81  46  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  59  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 210629
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream shortwave trough axis presents very well this
morning via WV analysis. As of 06z, deep layer drying, resultant
from the subsiding air on the backside of the wave, was along our
northern Alabama and Georgia counties. This dry air will overspread
the region today and mix down to the surface, resulting in relative
humidity levels 10+% lower than yesterday afternoon. High
temperatures will be a smidge warmer than yesterday, ranging from
the mid 80s in the southeast Big Bend, to lower 80s across southeast
Alabama. Expect no rain, with little to no cloud cover (outside of
the eastern Big Bend) as well.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become
vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and
off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will
continue to reside on the backside of the associated though
through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually
transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will
keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area
through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down
from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the
region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold
frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both
days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in
place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will
range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s
along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along
the coast.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR
visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear
skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the
work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday
and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and
Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met,
duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high
dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold
front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this
time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be
exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high
dispersion indices.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  51  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  59  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  50  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        81  49  77  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  51  77  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  53  81  46  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  59  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 210300
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
Coastal Waters and CWA, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local CAM guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR Vis at VLD towards
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 210300
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
Coastal Waters and CWA, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local CAM guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR Vis at VLD towards
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 210300
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
Coastal Waters and CWA, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local CAM guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR Vis at VLD towards
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 210300
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the Tropical Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche sending
plenty of thick blow off cirrus well to the NE extending into our
Coastal Waters and CWA, ended up tweaking low temps up a few
degrees, especially to the south and east. These lows are very
close to our latest local CAM guidance, which is running very
near to the current observations. The only other change of
significance was to increase sky cover across the board,
especially in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct-
bkn cirrus will dominate the tafs through the period. The lone
exception may be a very brief period of MVFR Vis at VLD towards
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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