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000
FXUS62 KTAE 312055
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Fire Weather...
The fire weather watch for Saturday has been updated based on the
latest forecast ERC values. The watch has been expanded to include
Walton, Holmes, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Jefferson, Madison,
and Taylor counties, as well as the original four counties, Washington,
Bay, Leon, and Wakulla. Relative humidity values will dip to
around 26-27% in these counties and coincide with 20 ft winds
around 18 MPH with ERC values ranging from 27 to 40. These
conditions will occur due to a dry cold front moving into the area
overnight tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region
today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of
sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year)
the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming
weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry
cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening.
Some cloud cover will build in overnight as the front approaches but
will clear out quickly before sunrise. Cold dry air behind the front
means a very chilly morning with lows in the upper 30s for most of
the region and low 40s for the southeast and coastal locations.
Winds will pick up overnight after frontal passage. Wind chill
values will be in the 30s in the early morning hours before sunrise.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A high-amplitude, but progressive long wave pattern will continue
across the country through this period. The upper trough axis will
be over the area Saturday morning and then shift east with the
upstream ridge axis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A
reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive with the passage of
another cold front overnight. This air mass will make it feel like
mid winter with daytime highs on Saturday only reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. That`s 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It will
also be quite breezy adding an apparent chill to the area.

This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far
on Saturday night. Much of the guidance is calling for a light
freeze across our mainly our northern zones. However, the high
position over Kentucky is not ideal for realizing these temps so
early in the season. Typically, we want the high centered much
closer to the Gulf Coast. We have also noted that the MOS tends to
have a cold bias with the first couple of arctic outbreaks in the
fall. For this reason, we are keeping temps just above freezing.
Winds should stay up across most of the forecast area. However,
eastern areas may decouple for a few hours and this would allow for
some possible frost formation. We have included areas of frost over
our South Central GA and inland eastern FL Big Bend zones.

As heights rise, temps will moderate a a few degrees on Sunday. More
of the area will see winds decouple on Sunday night with fairly
uniform mid 30s for lows. We will include a mention of frost for
several inland areas.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge will be over the area early next week with a warming
trend being the result. By Wednesday afternoon, temps will be back
to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to near 80. There is still a lot
of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern and its impacts on
our weather for the latter part of next week. It appears that an
upper low will cut off from the main flow either over northern
Mexico or the Southwest U.S. by Wednesday. This low will then move
eastward. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF in bringing this low
to the Gulf Coast, even going so far as to develop a surface low
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and moving that low
eastward across the central Gulf. At this time, we favor the slower
solution and will keep PoPs minimal for the end of the week.


.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period.
Winds will begin to increase out of the NW this afternoon and will
increase further overnight and continue through the end of the TAF
period. Gusts of 25KT are possible especially at ABY and DHN.


.Marine...
A cold front will sweep across the Northeast Gulf overnight with
strong gusty winds arriving in its wake. While sustained gales are
not likely, frequent gust to 35-40 knots justify the gale warning
that is in effect. Winds will peak around sunrise Saturday with
offshore seas occasionally reaching as high as 15-17 ft. High
pressure will start to build southeastward toward the waters later
in the weekend with conditions dropping below headline criteria by
mid morning Sunday. As high pressure moves east off the Southeast
U.S. coast, winds over the Gulf of Mexico will veer to the east by
Sunday night. This pattern will persist into Wednesday with winds
surging to cautionary levels each night through the period.


.Hydrology...
Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  60  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  61  40  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  58  34  63  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  59  33  64  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  59  34  63  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  60  34  66  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  61  39  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for Central Walton-Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 311925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region
today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of
sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year)
the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming
weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry
cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening.
Some cloud cover will build in overnight as the front approaches but
will clear out quickly before sunrise. Cold dry air behind the front
means a very chilly morning with lows in the upper 30s for most of
the region and low 40s for the southeast and coastal locations.
Winds will pick up overnight after frontal passage. Wind chill
values will be in the 30s in the early morning hours before sunrise.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A high-amplitude, but progressive long wave pattern will continue
across the country through this period. The upper trough axis will
be over the area Saturday morning and then shift east with the
upstream ridge axis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A
reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive with the passage of
another cold front overnight. This air mass will make it feel like
mid winter with daytime highs on Saturday only reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. That`s 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It will
also be quite breezy adding an apparent chill to the area.

This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far
on Saturday night. Much of the guidance is calling for a light
freeze across our mainly our northern zones. However, the high
position over Kentucky is not ideal for realizing these temps so
early in the season. Typically, we want the high centered much
closer to the Gulf Coast. We have also noted that the MOS tends to
have a cold bias with the first couple of arctic outbreaks in the
fall. For this reason, we are keeping temps just above freezing.
Winds should stay up across most of the forecast area. However,
eastern areas may decouple for a few hours and this would allow for
some possible frost formation. We have included areas of frost over
our South Central GA and inland eastern FL Big Bend zones.

As heights rise, temps will moderate a a few degrees on Sunday. More
of the area will see winds decouple on Sunday night with fairly
uniform mid 30s for lows. We will include a mention of frost for
several inland areas.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge will be over the area early next week with a warming
trend being the result. By Wednesday afternoon, temps will be back
to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to near 80. There is still a lot
of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern and its impacts on
our weather for the latter part of next week. It appears that an
upper low will cut off from the main flow either over northern
Mexico or the Southwest U.S. by Wednesday. This low will then move
eastward. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF in bringing this low
to the Gulf Coast, even going so far as to develop a surface low
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and moving that low
eastward across the central Gulf. At this time, we favor the slower
solution and will keep PoPs minimal for the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period.
Winds will begin to increase out of the NW this afternoon and will
increase further overnight and continue through the end of the TAF
period. Gusts of 25KT are possible especially at ABY and DHN.

&&

.Marine...
A cold front will sweep across the Northeast Gulf overnight with
strong gusty winds arriving in its wake. While sustained gales are
not likely, frequent gust to 35-40 knots justify the gale warning
that is in effect. Winds will peak around sunrise Saturday with
offshore seas occasionally reaching as high as 15-17 ft. High
pressure will start to build southeastward toward the waters later
in the weekend with conditions dropping below headline criteria by
mid morning Sunday. As high pressure moves east off the Southeast
U.S. coast, winds over the Gulf of Mexico will veer to the east by
Sunday night. This pattern will persist into Wednesday with winds
surging to cautionary levels each night through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A secondary dry cold front will push into the area tonight bringing
increased wind speeds and drier air. The colder temperatures will
keep relative humidity values above critical levels for much of the
area, especially as we move into the cool season criteria for
Alabama. In Washington, Bay, Leon, and Wakulla counties in Florida
however, where ERC values are highest, we will meet red flag
conditions with relative humidity around 26% and 20 ft winds around
18 MPH on Saturday. A red flag watch has been issued for these
counties for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  60  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  61  40  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  58  34  63  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  59  33  64  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  59  34  63  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  60  34  66  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  61  39  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 311459
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region
today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of
sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year)
the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming
weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry
cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening.
Outside of some patchy Cirrus and slowly increasing N-NW winds, not
much in the way of weather will be indicative that such a cold blast
of air will be on its way.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
As has been well advertised for the past few days, a big cold snap
is coming this weekend. A rather anomalously large upper low will
drop into the Southern US by Saturday morning pushing a dry cold
front across the forecast area by daybreak. The surface pressure
gradient between a developing low pressure area off the Carolina
coast and an arctic high pressure area moving down the Mississippi
River Valley will generate strong northerly winds quickly
ushering in this much colder airmass. The cold advection behind
this front will be sufficiently strong that high temperatures on
Saturday will likely struggle to warm out of the 50s, which is
rather incredible for the first day of November. The current
forecast highs for Saturday are very near record low maximum
levels for the date.

By Saturday night, the core of the high pressure area will be
building over the Tennessee River Valley with the ridge axis
extending southward to the Central Gulf Coast. The models differ
here in whether the position of the ridge is close enough to
result in light to calm winds across the region by sunrise.
The NAM and Euro MOS for 31/00z are surprisingly similar in
temperatures in the lower 30s across the region with winds very
near or precisely calm by 12z Sunday. Only the GFS shows winds in
the 4 to 6 kt range throughout the night and accordingly has
warmer min temperatures.

The MOS (excluding the MAV) would seem to indicate a borderline
freeze across some of our interior counties - mainly from TLH-ABY
and westward. However, the surface pressure fields in the model
would suggest that it would be unlikely that surface winds become
calm by sunrise.

While the incoming airmass will be very cold, I`m just not
confident we`ll effectively radiate in this pattern or that we
can advect temperatures much cooler than the mid 30s into the
region by daybreak on Sunday. As a result, will utilize a forecast
blend heavily weighted toward the previous forecast - which was
warmer than the 00z guidance set - and the 00z GFS. This results
in lows generally in the mid 30s in western areas and in the upper
30s in the east. Should future forecasts suggest the ridge center
will be located further south, downward adjustments to the min
temp forecast may be needed. In areas with the mid 30s, frost is
unlikely since the airmass will be especially dry.

The moderating trend for afternoon temperatures begins on Sunday
as high pressure builds just north of the region. Highs are
expected to be in the low to mid 60s, which is still around 10
degrees below normal for early November.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The extended forecast will be marked by gradually moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather as a mid-upper level ridge
builds across the eastern US and we transition into more of a
+NAO/+AO regime. Highs should be closer to 80 degrees by the
middle of next week. The next chance of rain is expected to hold
off until Wednesday at the earliest.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] Nearly unlimited VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period at all of the Taf sites,
but the initially light winds will be on the increase out of the
NW both this aftn and tonight at most of the terminals.


.Marine...
Winds will be on the increase this afternoon in the wake of a cold
frontal passage from Thursday evening. Winds will sharply increase
around midnight as a reinforcing cold front surges across the
marine area. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind this
front with sustained winds possibly nearing gale force as well.
Saturday afternoon, high pressure will build near enough to the
marine area to eliminate the threat for gale force gusts, though
advisory conditions will continue into Sunday. High pressure will
then build to the northeast of the marine area starting a period
of moderate easterly flow.


.Fire Weather...
A much colder and drier air mass will rush into the region this
weekend behind a very strong but dry cold front. This unseasonably
cold airmass will generate quite strong and gusty transport winds
and very high dispersions. Red flag conditions may still be possible
over parts of the region on Sunday, but the chilly afternoon temps
appear likely to keep relative humidities just above Red Flag levels
at this time.


.Hydrology...
Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  41  58  38  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   74  42  59  41  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        72  38  57  35  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        72  39  57  37  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  41  57  37  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Cross City    75  45  58  39  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  44  59  42  63 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 310843
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region
today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of
sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year)
the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming
weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass (which will be described in
detail in the Short Term discussion) will be preceded by a dry cold
front which will approach the region from the NW this aftn. Outside
of some patchy Cirrus and slowly increasing N-NW winds, not much in
the way of weather will be indicative that such a cold blast of air
will be on its way.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
As has been well advertised for the past few days, a big cold snap
is coming this weekend. A rather anomalously large upper low will
drop into the Southern US by Saturday morning pushing a dry cold
front across the forecast area by daybreak. The surface pressure
gradient between a developing low pressure area off the Carolina
coast and an arctic high pressure area moving down the Mississippi
River Valley will generate strong northerly winds quickly
ushering in this much colder airmass. The cold advection behind
this front will be sufficiently strong that high temperatures on
Saturday will likely struggle to warm out of the 50s, which is
rather incredible for the first day of November. The current
forecast highs for Saturday are very near record low maximum
levels for the date.

By Saturday night, the core of the high pressure area will be
building over the Tennessee River Valley with the ridge axis
extending southward to the Central Gulf Coast. The models differ
here in whether the position of the ridge is close enough to
result in light to calm winds across the region by sunrise.
The NAM and Euro MOS for 31/00z are surprisingly similar in
temperatures in the lower 30s across the region with winds very
near or precisely calm by 12z Sunday. Only the GFS shows winds in
the 4 to 6 kt range throughout the night and accordingly has
warmer min temperatures.

The MOS (excluding the MAV) would seem to indicate a borderline
freeze across some of our interior counties - mainly from TLH-ABY
and westward. However, the surface pressure fields in the model
would suggest that it would be unlikely that surface winds become
calm by sunrise.

While the incoming airmass will be very cold, I`m just not
confident we`ll effectively radiate in this pattern or that we
can advect temperatures much cooler than the mid 30s into the
region by daybreak on Sunday. As a result, will utilize a forecast
blend heavily weighted toward the previous forecast - which was
warmer than the 00z guidance set - and the 00z GFS. This results
in lows generally in the mid 30s in western areas and in the upper
30s in the east. Should future forecasts suggest the ridge center
will be located further south, downward adjustments to the min
temp forecast may be needed. In areas with the mid 30s, frost is
unlikely since the airmass will be especially dry.

The moderating trend for afternoon temperatures begins on Sunday
as high pressure builds just north of the region. Highs are
expected to be in the low to mid 60s, which is still around 10
degrees below normal for early November.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The extended forecast will be marked by gradually moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather as a mid-upper level ridge
builds across the eastern US and we transition into more of a
+NAO/+AO regime. Highs should be closer to 80 degrees by the
middle of next week. The next chance of rain is expected to hold
off until Wednesday at the earliest.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] Nearly unlimited VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period at all of the Taf sites,
but the initially light winds will be on the increase out of the
NW both this aftn and tonight at most of the terminals.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be on the increase this afternoon in the wake of a cold
frontal passage from Thursday evening. Winds will sharply increase
around midnight as a reinforcing cold front surges across the
marine area. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind this
front with sustained winds possibly nearing gale force as well.
Saturday afternoon, high pressure will build near enough to the
marine area to eliminate the threat for gale force gusts, though
advisory conditions will continue into Sunday. High pressure will
then build to the northeast of the marine area starting a period
of moderate easterly flow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A much colder and drier air mass will rush into the region this
weekend behind a very strong but dry cold front. This unseasonably
cold airmass will generate quite strong and gusty transport winds
and very high dispersions. Red flag conditions may still be possible
over parts of the region on Sunday, but the chilly afternoon temps
appear likely to keep relative humidities just above Red Flag levels
at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  41  58  38  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   74  42  59  41  63 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        72  38  57  35  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        72  39  57  37  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  41  57  37  62 /   0  10   0   0   0
Cross City    75  45  58  39  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  44  59  42  63 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 11 PM Friday evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     from Destin to the Suwannee River Entrance out to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     from Destin to the Suwannee River Entrance out to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 310028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional 00Z surface analysis shows the cold front stretching from
Jacksonville southwestward across Gainesville to just south of Cedar
Key. Local radar imagery shows the showers associated with this
front have also cleared the area. As colder, drier air mass makes
its way into the area tonight, skies will clear and temperatures
will drop noticeably. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s over most
of the area, upper 40s to around 50 along the immediate coast and in
SW Georgia and the eastern Big Bend.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be from the NNW, picking up to around 10 knots
Friday afternoon.


&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

An initial cold front has ushered in a drier air mass already
across the area; GOES blended precipitable water (PWAT) is
estimating around 0.50" in Tallahassee. The dry air mass that
will be in place on Friday should be sufficient to make the next
cold front passage late Friday afternoon to Friday evening a dry
one. This secondary cold front will be associated with a potent,
digging +PV anomaly on the back side of a broad eastern US trough.
As of 19Z today (Thursday), water vapor satellite indicated the
+PV anomaly over southeast Manitoba. The GFS analysis indicated
that the 1.5 PVU surface (dynamic tropopause) was down around
600mb, an indication that the digging wave is quite strong. By 12Z
Saturday, the model consensus places a closed mid-level low over
South Carolina with height anomalies around 5-6 standard
deviations below normal. In meteorological parlance, this is quite
unusual. With a deep and potent developing autumn cyclone for the
Southeast region, one would expect strong cold air advection and
windy conditions to the west of the low, behind the surface cold
front. The standardized anomalies bear this out as well: over our
forecast area models project the 850mb temperature anomalies peak
at 4-5 standard deviations below normal, and the 850mb wind speeds
peak nearly 3 standard deviations above normal.

These signals suggest that the outer tails of the guidance
distribution may actually be plausible scenarios in this case.
With respect to temperatures, we expect this could produce high
temperatures on Saturday that are very close to record cool
values. The record for coolest high temperature on November 1st in
Tallahassee is 57. The current forecast calls for 59 at TLH, with
mid-upper 50s elsewhere, so it should be close. The model blend
that we utilized for Friday Night and Saturday was weighted more
toward raw model guidance (instead of MOS) as that tends to
perform better in strong cold air advection regimes. For Saturday
Night, winds should begin to decrease but the surface ridge axis
will remain west of our forecast area with the high centered near
the Ohio River. This should maintain some light winds and mixing
through the night, so the low temperature forecast calls for
values close to the consensus (mid 30s). If the winds can diminish
sufficiently late Saturday Night, areas of frost would be more
likely and a Frost Advisory may become necessary. Wind chills on
Friday Night and Saturday Night should be in the low-mid 30s.

Regarding winds on Saturday, we could approach Wind Advisory
criteria. The anomalously strong winds near the top of the
boundary layer should lead to higher wind gusts than we see behind
most cool-season cold fronts. For now we have indicated wind gusts
of 30-40 mph in the forecast, but some BUFKIT soundings
(especially with the GFS) indicate the potential for gusts in
excess of 40 mph depending on how deep the mixed layer is.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The extended forecast will be marked by gradually moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather as a mid-upper level ridge
builds across the eastern US and we transition into more of a
+NAO/+AO regime. Highs should be closer to 80 degrees by the
middle of next week. The next chance of rain is expected to hold
off until Wednesday at the earliest.


.Marine...

In the wake of the secondary cold front on Friday evening, we
expect at least widespread advisory conditions with winds
increasing to around 25 knots in most of the coastal waters. Given
the strength of the wind field just above the surface and the warm
early autumn water temperatures, frequent gale force gusts will be
a distinct possibility. The much colder-than-normal air mass will
combine with sea-surface temperatures that are above-normal to
produce unusually steep lapse rates in the marine boundary layer.
This should provide for efficient transfer of stronger winds to
the water surface, and model consensus indicates these could be as
high as 40-45 knots near the top of the boundary layer. Given the
anomalous situation, we have issued a Gale Watch for all of the
coastal waters from Friday Night into much of Saturday. Winds
should subside later in the weekend, but periodic easterly winds
at SCEC levels should persist into early next week.


.Fire Weather...

A much colder and drier air mass will push into the region over
the weekend and bring high transport winds along with it. Red
flag conditions are possible, particularly Saturday and Sunday,
although the lower temperatures may keep our relative humidity
values just shy of criteria.


.Hydrology...

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  75  41  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  72  45  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        44  72  38  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  72  39  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      47  73  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    50  75  45  59  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  74  46  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 301946
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The cold front has pushed through the area with cooler and drier
air advecting in. The remaining cloud cover over the southeast
half of the area will rapidly clear out. Overnight lows tonight
will be cooler than recent nights with low to mid 40s across
portions of southeast Alabama and mid 40s to near 50 elsewhere.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

An initial cold front has ushered in a drier air mass already
across the area; GOES blended precipitable water (PWAT) is
estimating around 0.50" in Tallahassee. The dry air mass that
will be in place on Friday should be sufficient to make the next
cold front passage late Friday afternoon to Friday evening a dry
one. This secondary cold front will be associated with a potent,
digging +PV anomaly on the back side of a broad eastern US trough.
As of 19Z today (Thursday), water vapor satellite indicated the
+PV anomaly over southeast Manitoba. The GFS analysis indicated
that the 1.5 PVU surface (dynamic tropopause) was down around
600mb, an indication that the digging wave is quite strong. By 12Z
Saturday, the model consensus places a closed mid-level low over
South Carolina with height anomalies around 5-6 standard
deviations below normal. In meteorological parlance, this is quite
unusual. With a deep and potent developing autumn cyclone for the
Southeast region, one would expect strong cold air advection and
windy conditions to the west of the low, behind the surface cold
front. The standardized anomalies bear this out as well: over our
forecast area models project the 850mb temperature anomalies peak
at 4-5 standard deviations below normal, and the 850mb wind speeds
peak nearly 3 standard deviations above normal.

These signals suggest that the outer tails of the guidance
distribution may actually be plausible scenarios in this case.
With respect to temperatures, we expect this could produce high
temperatures on Saturday that are very close to record cool
values. The record for coolest high temperature on November 1st in
Tallahassee is 57. The current forecast calls for 59 at TLH, with
mid-upper 50s elsewhere, so it should be close. The model blend
that we utilized for Friday Night and Saturday was weighted more
toward raw model guidance (instead of MOS) as that tends to
perform better in strong cold air advection regimes. For Saturday
Night, winds should begin to decrease but the surface ridge axis
will remain west of our forecast area with the high centered near
the Ohio River. This should maintain some light winds and mixing
through the night, so the low temperature forecast calls for
values close to the consensus (mid 30s). If the winds can diminish
sufficiently late Saturday Night, areas of frost would be more
likely and a Frost Advisory may become necessary. Wind chills on
Friday Night and Saturday Night should be in the low-mid 30s.

Regarding winds on Saturday, we could approach Wind Advisory
criteria. The anomalously strong winds near the top of the
boundary layer should lead to higher wind gusts than we see behind
most cool-season cold fronts. For now we have indicated wind gusts
of 30-40 mph in the forecast, but some BUFKIT soundings
(especially with the GFS) indicate the potential for gusts in
excess of 40 mph depending on how deep the mixed layer is.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The extended forecast will be marked by gradually moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather as a mid-upper level ridge
builds across the eastern US and we transition into more of a
+NAO/+AO regime. Highs should be closer to 80 degrees by the
middle of next week. The next chance of rain is expected to hold
off until Wednesday at the earliest.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...

In the wake of the secondary cold front on Friday evening, we
expect at least widespread advisory conditions with winds
increasing to around 25 knots in most of the coastal waters. Given
the strength of the wind field just above the surface and the warm
early autumn water temperatures, frequent gale force gusts will be
a distinct possibility. The much colder-than-normal air mass will
combine with sea-surface temperatures that are above-normal to
produce unusually steep lapse rates in the marine boundary layer.
This should provide for efficient transfer of stronger winds to
the water surface, and model consensus indicates these could be as
high as 40-45 knots near the top of the boundary layer. Given the
anomalous situation, we have issued a Gale Watch for all of the
coastal waters from Friday Night into much of Saturday. Winds
should subside later in the weekend, but periodic easterly winds
at SCEC levels should persist into early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A much colder and drier air mass will push into the region over
the weekend and bring high transport winds along with it. Red
flag conditions are possible, particularly Saturday and Sunday,
although the lower temperatures may keep our relative humidity
values just shy of criteria.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  75  41  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  72  45  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        44  72  38  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  72  39  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      47  73  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    50  75  45  59  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  74  46  59  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Destin FL to Suwannee River out to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 301356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The weakening cold front and upper trough continue to push through
the forecast area this morning. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the weak upper troughing.
Therefore, a 20 PoP was inserted through the early afternoon
across portions of the Florida big bend and adjacent southern
Georgia. Otherwise, highs will still be rather mild, with
afternoon temps ranging from the mid 70s to the NW to the lower
80s well to the SE, with the much more significant cooling
expected for tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed west of TLH and
VLD this morning, but any impact from these should be very brief.

&&

.Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Tonight, a weak upper level wave will move off the Florida/Georgia
coastline, slightly strengthening an already present area of surface
low pressure off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. The main
effect locally will be to continue forcing dry boundary layer air
through through the Tri-State region and into the southeast Big
Bend. Lows should fall into the 40s for most locations away from
the coast.

Friday, a very strong +PV anomaly will deepen and amplify the
broad eastern CONUS trough as it dives through the Great Lakes
region and into the Midwest. While heights aloft will lower
through the day, 850mb temps should be near average. With ample
mixing expected under strengthening northwesterly flow, we should
be able to tap into the near normal low-layer temperatures keeping
highs right around, or just below average for this time of year.

An unseasonably strong (but dry) cold front associated with the
aforementioned northern stream anomaly, will pass through the Tri-
State region Friday night. CAA will commence and increase through
the night. This should drive lows down into the upper 30s across
much of southeast Alabama and south Georgia, with low 40s expected
elsewhere.

On Saturday, heights will be at their lowest as the deepest part
of the trough nears the region. At the surface, strong Arctic high
pressure will overspread the region ushering in quite strong and
gusty surface winds which will continue the strong CAA. It is
possible that only the southeast Big Bend of Florida will break
into the 60s for highs on Saturday, with most locations remaining
in the upper 50s.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

For Saturday Night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer
which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced
mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast
period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This
could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but RH
values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that,
a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +NAO/+AO
state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into next
week with continued dry weather.


.Marine...

Cautionary level winds are expected today in the wake of a weak
cold front. Winds will subside to just below headline levels
tonight through Friday, but a strong cold front passing through
Friday night is expected to increase winds and seas to solid
advisory levels through Saturday. Gusts to gale force will be
possible as well.


.Fire Weather...

As mentioned above, much drier air will be moving into the region
today, and this will be re-enforced dramatically by a very strong
dry cold front this weekend. While earlier it appeared as though Red
Flag conditions would be likely for a good portion the Tri-State
area at some point, the unseasonably chilly afternoon temperatures
may keep the Red Flags at bay.


.Hydrology...

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  46  74  42  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  50  74  45  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  44  73  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        75  44  73  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  49  73  41  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Cross City    82  53  75  47  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  53  73  47  59 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300809
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The weakening Sfc cold front is gradually pushing its way SE through
the CWA today with gradually cooler and much drier air filtering in
from the NW. Once the lower clouds dissipate and clear the area,
highs will still be rather mild, with afternoon temps ranging from
the mid 70s to the NW to the lower 80s well to the SE, with the much
more significant cooling expected for tonight. Rain chances are just
about done for the interior today, except for 20-30 percent PoPs
over the extreme SE FL Big Bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Tonight, a weak upper level wave will move off the Florida/Georgia
coastline, slightly strengthening an already present area of surface
low pressure off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. The main
effect locally will be to continue forcing dry boundary layer air
through through the Tri-State region and into the southeast Big
Bend. Lows should fall into the 40s for most locations away from
the coast.

Friday, a very strong +PV anomaly will deepen and amplify the
broad eastern CONUS trough as it dives through the Great Lakes
region and into the Midwest. While heights aloft will lower
through the day, 850mb temps should be near average. With ample
mixing expected under strengthening northwesterly flow, we should
be able to tap into the near normal low-layer temperatures keeping
highs right around, or just below average for this time of year.

An unseasonably strong (but dry) cold front associated with the
aforementioned northern stream anomaly, will pass through the Tri-
State region Friday night. CAA will commence and increase through
the night. This should drive lows down into the upper 30s across
much of southeast Alabama and south Georgia, with low 40s expected
elsewhere.

On Saturday, heights will be at their lowest as the deepest part
of the trough nears the region. At the surface, strong Arctic high
pressure will overspread the region ushering in quite strong and
gusty surface winds which will continue the strong CAA. It is
possible that only the southeast Big Bend of Florida will break
into the 60s for highs on Saturday, with most locations remaining
in the upper 50s.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

For Saturday Night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer
which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced
mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast
period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This
could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but RH
values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that,
a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +NAO/+AO
state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into next
week with continued dry weather.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

Both pre and post frontal low cloudiness are keeping some of the
terminals varying between MVFR and IFR levels early this morning,
but these conditions should be very short lived as the cold front
eases its way on through. Thereafter, VFR conditions should dominate
the Taf sites for the rest of the period, with N winds around 10 kts
during the daylight hours.

&&

.Marine...

Cautionary level winds are expected today in the wake of a weak
cold front. Winds will subside to just below headline levels
tonight through Friday, but a strong cold front passing through
Friday night is expected to increase winds and seas to solid
advisory levels through Saturday. Gusts to gale force will be
possible as well.

&&

.Fire Weather...

As mentioned above, much drier air will be moving into the region
today, and this will be re-enforced dramatically by a very strong
dry cold front this weekend. While earlier it appeared as though Red
Flag conditions would be likely for a good portion the Tri-State
area at some point, the unseasonably chilly afternoon temperatures
may keep the Red Flags at bay.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  46  74  42  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  50  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  44  73  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        75  44  73  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  49  73  41  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    82  53  75  47  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  53  73  47  59 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300005
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional 23Z surface analysis shows the weakening cold front to
stretch across southern Alabama roughly from Mobile northeast to
Eufala, then across central Georgia and the western Carolinas.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of this front are still
going this evening, but are expected to become mostly dissipated by
around midnight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50
in southeast Alabama, 50s to around 60 everywhere else with the
warmest temperatures in our southeastern zones. In these
southeastern zones ahead of the front where the temperatures will
be warmer, moisture will also be higher. Patchy fog will be
possible in this area during the early morning hours, clearing up
a little after sunrise.



&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR is expected to prevail through the period
with the exception of VLD, where fog may be possible once again in
the early morning hours. Winds tomorrow will be from the north at
around 10 knots.


&&

.Prev Discussion [403 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front should push south of the forecast
area either late tonight or Thursday morning. There may be some
lingering showers 12-18Z Thursday near the surface cold front, but
significant dry air advection is expected through the day, so a
mostly dry forecast is expected and clouds should quickly clear
out. The boundary layer temperatures should not decrease much
behind the initial cold front, and therefore highs on Thursday
are expected to be close to normal (mid-upper 70s). Continued
clear skies and dry weather are expected into Friday with slightly
below normal temperatures.

A more substantial cold front is expected to arrive Friday
evening, associated with a potent, digging +PV anomaly on the
backside of a broad trough in the eastern United States. By 12Z
Saturday, the latest operational ECMWF and GFS generate sub-538
DKM closed low at 500mb near South Carolina with the digging +PV
anomaly aloft. This is highly anomalous for late October, around 5
standard deviations below normal. In fact, many fields on the
latest numerical model runs are quite anomalous in the Southeast.
For example, the GEFS ensemble mean forecast 850mb temperatures at
12Z Saturday are 4-5 standard deviations below normal across south
Georgia. In other words, this should be a stronger cold front
than normal for early October, despite the fact that no
precipitation is expected with the front. Because of this we have
trended temperatures down for Friday Night with lows generally
between 40 and 45 degrees. However, there should be a limit to how
cold the air temperature can get as a strong pressure gradient
should keep near-surface winds and boundary layer mixing up
overnight. Therefore the forecast reflects lows several degrees
below the multi-model consensus.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Strong cold air advection will continue on Saturday, which should
produce daytime maximum temperatures well below normal. The record
coolest max temp on November 1st at Tallahassee was 57 in 1993. We
could get close to that sort of value on Saturday given the highly
anomalous low-level temperature profile. The raw GFS and ECMWF
have highs of 55 and 56 respectively, but most MOS guidance is in
the low 60s. We trended the high temperature forecast down with
increasing confidence in an anomalously cool air mass, but not as
extreme as some of the raw model guidance for now.

For Saturday Night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer
which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced
mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast
period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This
could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but RH
values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that,
a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +NAO/+AO
state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into
next week with continued dry weather.


.Marine...

A slight increase in offshore winds tonight behind a cold front
has prompted a SCEC headline over the western half of the coastal
waters with 15-20 knot winds. Otherwise, conditions should be
relatively benign until a stronger cold front arrives on Friday
evening. Advisory level winds are likely, and a few gale (34kt)
force gusts cannot be ruled out. With warm water temperatures, and
an unusually cold low-level air mass just above the surface, lapse
rates over the waters should be very steep and support efficient
transfer of stronger winds aloft to the surface. Later in the
weekend and into next week, winds should veer to the east and
periodic SCEC conditions are possible - especially at night.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag criteria are not forecast to be met until Saturday in the
wake of a dry cold front. On Saturday, much of the tri-state
area will likely see red flag conditions. Saturday will mark the
return to cool season criteria in Alabama.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts through tonight are expected to be mainly on the
light side with no impact to rivers and streams expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  78  46  75  44 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   61  74  52  73  47 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        50  73  44  73  40 /  30   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  74  44  73  41 /  30   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  77  49  73  44 /  30  10   0   0   0
Cross City    62  81  54  76  48 /  10  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  77  51  74  49 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 292003
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A weakening cold front will push through the region during the
overnight hours. Dynamics are not overly strong and deep layer
moisture is only around average for this time of year. Scattered
showers will be gradually decreasing through the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will range from near 50 in the far northwest areas
to the lower 60s across the southeast big bend. There is also the
chance of some areas of fog ahead of the front where higher low
level moisture exists across the far southeast big bend including
portions of Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties late tonight.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front should push south of the forecast
area either late tonight or Thursday morning. There may be some
lingering showers 12-18Z Thursday near the surface cold front, but
significant dry air advection is expected through the day, so a
mostly dry forecast is expected and clouds should quickly clear
out. The boundary layer temperatures should not decrease much
behind the initial cold front, and therefore highs on Thursday
are expected to be close to normal (mid-upper 70s). Continued
clear skies and dry weather are expected into Friday with slightly
below normal temperatures.

A more substantial cold front is expected to arrive Friday
evening, associated with a potent, digging +PV anomaly on the
backside of a broad trough in the eastern United States. By 12Z
Saturday, the latest operational ECMWF and GFS generate sub-538
DKM closed low at 500mb near South Carolina with the digging +PV
anomaly aloft. This is highly anomalous for late October, around 5
standard deviations below normal. In fact, many fields on the
latest numerical model runs are quite anomalous in the Southeast.
For example, the GEFS ensemble mean forecast 850mb temperatures at
12Z Saturday are 4-5 standard deviations below normal across south
Georgia. In other words, this should be a stronger cold front
than normal for early October, despite the fact that no
precipitation is expected with the front. Because of this we have
trended temperatures down for Friday Night with lows generally
between 40 and 45 degrees. However, there should be a limit to how
cold the air temperature can get as a strong pressure gradient
should keep near-surface winds and boundary layer mixing up
overnight. Therefore the forecast reflects lows several degrees
below the multi-model consensus.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Strong cold air advection will continue on Saturday, which should
produce daytime maximum temperatures well below normal. The record
coolest max temp on November 1st at Tallahassee was 57 in 1993. We
could get close to that sort of value on Saturday given the highly
anomalous low-level temperature profile. The raw GFS and ECMWF
have highs of 55 and 56 respectively, but most MOS guidance is in
the low 60s. We trended the high temperature forecast down with
increasing confidence in an anomalously cool air mass, but not as
extreme as some of the raw model guidance for now.

For Saturday Night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer
which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced
mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast
period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This
could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but RH
values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that,
a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +NAO/+AO
state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into
next week with continued dry weather.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18z Thursday] There is a chance of showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm through this evening in association with a
weakening cold front, but the impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the
terminals.

&&

.Marine...

A slight increase in offshore winds tonight behind a cold front
has prompted a SCEC headline over the western half of the coastal
waters with 15-20 knot winds. Otherwise, conditions should be
relatively benign until a stronger cold front arrives on Friday
evening. Advisory level winds are likely, and a few gale (34kt)
force gusts cannot be ruled out. With warm water temperatures, and
an unusually cold low-level air mass just above the surface, lapse
rates over the waters should be very steep and support efficient
transfer of stronger winds aloft to the surface. Later in the
weekend and into next week, winds should veer to the east and
periodic SCEC conditions are possible - especially at night.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag criteria are not forecast to be met until Saturday in the
wake of a dry cold front. On Saturday, much of the tri-state
area will likely see red flag conditions. Saturday will mark the
return to cool season criteria in Alabama.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts through tonight are expected to be mainly on the
light side with no impact to rivers and streams expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  78  46  75  44 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   61  74  52  73  47 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        50  73  44  73  40 /  30   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  74  44  73  41 /  30   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      57  77  49  73  44 /  30  10   0   0   0
Cross City    62  81  54  76  48 /  10  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  77  51  74  49 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291442
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weakening cold front will affect the region today through the
overnight hours. Dynamics are not overly strong and moisture is
only around average for this time of year with PWAT values
generally 1.0-1.3 inches. The highest PoPs for the day are
expected to be across the western area at around 50% with a
scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then
spreading eastward during the first half of the overnight hours.
As for temps, expect another fairly warm day, with highs in the
lower 80s to the west and middle 80s to the east with higher
dewpoints across the board compared to yesterday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday] Fog has lifted at TLH, and mainly VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites for the remainder of the
period. There is a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
this afternoon into the evening mainly at DHN and ECP, but the
impacts are expected to be brief.

&&

.Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will become firmly established through
the period as several +PV anomalies dive southeast, exiting the
country over the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move east
across the Tri-State region, while shower intensity and coverage
decreases as the initial upper level anomaly moves away and low-
level flow temporarily becomes zonal. On Thursday, another
shortwave will move through the Southeast forcing the remnant cold
front through the local area by Thursday evening.

Temperatures tonight will feature seasonal low 50s across our
Alabama and northern Georgia counties behind the front, and above
average temps in the middle 60s ahead of it. With the region
remaining bisected through much of the day on Thursday, expect a
sharp gradient with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s
across the southeast Big Bend, and in the lower 70s across
southeast Alabama. Below average temperatures will overspread most
of the area by Thursday night with inland locations outside of the
southeast Big Bend falling in the lower to middle 40s. Friday is
expected to be dry with high temperatures in the lower to middle
70s, just a few degrees below average.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Big changes are in store during the long term period. While there
are still differences between the Euro and GFS with the eventual
incoming airmass for the weekend, some key points are starting to
emerge. Of the two models, the Euro is the most aggressive
showing a significant amplification of the pattern by Saturday
with a closed low moving off the Mid Atlantic States by the first
of the week. This opens the door for the first real cold air
intrusion to the Gulf. And with the surface ridge axis in the
model aligned near the region by Sunday morning, the Euro hints at
the potential for a frosty morning with lows in the mid to upper
30s. The GFS favors slightly milder temperatures, though has begun
to trend towards the colder Euro.

By Monday, as the surface high pressure area moves off the Atlantic
Coast, easterly flow returns, signaling a gradual warm up and a
steady increase in low level moisture.


.Marine...

Light southerly flow will veer northerly and increase to near
advisory levels (west of Apalachicola) tonight as a cold front
moves into the northeast Gulf. Winds will decrease through the day
on Thursday as the front weakens, though this will only be
temporary as strong high pressure should result in at least
cautionary level winds across the entire northeast Gulf through
the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few
days. However, by this upcoming Saturday, some of the driest air of
the season will be on its way, which may give us our first Red Flag
Warning in quite some time for much of the Tri-State area. All
interests are urged to keep abreast of the latest conditions, should
future watches or warnings become necessary.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts through Thursday will be rather light and pose no
impact to area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  60  76  48  74 /  30  50  10   0   0
Panama City   80  63  75  52  72 /  50  50  10   0   0
Dothan        82  54  72  45  72 /  50  50   0   0   0
Albany        83  54  73  45  72 /  40  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  60  78  51  73 /  10  30  10  10   0
Cross City    84  65  82  58  77 /  10  10  30  20   0
Apalachicola  80  65  75  53  73 /  40  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY/HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290809
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Outside of the Panama City area which is still experiencing some
visibility restrictions due to smoke and Valdosta which fogged in a
bit (to MVFR levels bfr the clouds were able to move in), the
mid-high level cloud canopy which has advected in out ahead of the
approaching cold front has virtually eliminated any significant fog
threat across the Tri-State area early this morning. For the rest of
today, this weakening cold front will continue a gradual approach
from the NW with PoPs correspondingly increasing from W to E
throughout the progression of the day. However, rain chances should
peak at 50% this aftn over far NW portions of the CWA, with a
gradual decrease to 20% or less over the eastern portions of the
region. Additionally, only expect sct showers and isolated tstms,
with total QPF generally 1/4 of an inch or less. As for temps,
expect another fairly warm day, with highs in the lower 80s to the
west and middle 80s to the east with higher dewpoints across the
board.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will become firmly established through
the period as several +PV anomalies dive southeast, exiting the
country over the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move east
across the Tri-State region, while shower intensity and coverage
decreases as the initial upper level anomaly moves away and low-
level flow temporarily becomes zonal. On Thursday, another
shortwave will move through the Southeast forcing the remnant cold
front through the local area by Thursday evening.

Temperatures tonight will feature seasonal low 50s across our
Alabama and northern Georgia counties behind the front, and above
average temps in the middle 60s ahead of it. With the region
remaining bisected through much of the day on Thursday, expect a
sharp gradient with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s
across the southeast Big Bend, and in the lower 70s across
southeast Alabama. Below average temperatures will overspread most
of the area by Thursday night with inland locations outside of the
southeast Big Bend falling in the lower to middle 40s. Friday is
expected to be dry with high temperatures in the lower to middle
70s, just a few degrees below average.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Big changes are in store during the long term period. While there
are still differences between the Euro and GFS with the eventual
incoming airmass for the weekend, some key points are starting to
emerge. Of the two models, the Euro is the most aggressive
showing a significant amplification of the pattern by Saturday
with a closed low moving off the Mid Atlantic States by the first
of the week. This opens the door for the first real cold air
intrusion to the Gulf. And with the surface ridge axis in the
model aligned near the region by Sunday morning, the Euro hints at
the potential for a frosty morning with lows in the mid to upper
30s. The GFS favors slightly milder temperatures, though has begun
to trend towards the colder Euro.

By Monday, as the surface high pressure area moves off the Atlantic
Coast, easterly flow returns, signaling a gradual warm up and a
steady increase in low level moisture.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

As mentioned above, the only terminals experiencing restrictions are
ECP and VLD, and with the ever increasing and lowering cloud bases,
expect these to be lifted by, or shortly after, sunrise this
morning. Also, given the higher chances for a shower or storm to the
west, did insert convective Prob30s at the western terminals for
this aftn into this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Light southerly flow will veer northerly and increase to near
advisory levels (west of Apalachicola) tonight as a cold front
moves into the northeast Gulf. Winds will decrease through the day
on Thursday as the front weakens, though this will only be
temporary as strong high pressure should result in at least
cautionary level winds across the entire northeast Gulf through
the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few
days. However, by this upcoming Saturday, some of the driest air of
the season will be on its way, which may give us our first Red Flag
Warning in quite some time for much of the Tri-State area. All
interests are urged to keep abreast of the latest conditions, should
future watches or warnings become necessary.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts through Thursday will be rather light and pose no
impact to area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  60  76  48  74 /  20  30  10   0   0
Panama City   80  63  75  52  72 /  40  50  10   0   0
Dothan        82  54  72  45  72 /  50  50   0   0   0
Albany        83  54  73  45  72 /  30  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  60  78  51  73 /  10  30  10  10   0
Cross City    84  65  82  58  77 /  10  20  30  20   0
Apalachicola  80  65  75  53  73 /  30  40  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY/HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
827 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.Near Term [Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west
oriented ridge along the FL-GA state line, and a cold front from
central TN through east TX. Much of the atmosphere over area was
still dry, but boundary layer moisture has modestly increased over
the past 24 hours. Conditions don`t appear quite as favorable for
widespread dense fog tonight, which accounts for the large spread
in the visibility forecasts from the various dynamical and
statistical guidance. Still, patchy fog- some dense, remains
possible late tonight or early Wednesday. Lows will be in the mid
50s to lower 60s, which is above average.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Thursday] The main forecast challenge is the
potential for fog late tonight and early Wednesday. There is
considerable spread among the various statistical and dynamical
guidance, with the statistical guidance generally calling for
dense fog in our eastern zones, and the dynamical and consensus guidance
forecasting fog in FL and Southeast AL (though not as widespread
as this morning). Our forecast package is a blend of these
differing solutions, with MVFR Vis expected at all sites around
dawn. Generally VFR conditions and light S-SW winds are expected
for the remainder of Wednesday, though there is a chance of SHRA
late in the day around KDHN.

&&

.Prev Discussion [220 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN KEEPING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE WEAK WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE LITTLE REASON WITH THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE TO
DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME
COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MID 80S, WITH A NOTABLE CHANGE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WITH THE
EVENTUAL INCOMING AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME KEY POINTS ARE
STARTING TO EMERGE. ESSENTIALLY, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF THIS AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL PATH OF A
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL LARGELY DICTATE HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES
IT TO THE GULF COAST. OF THE TWO MODELS, THE EURO IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE FIRST REAL COLD
AIR INTRUSION TO THE GULF. AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN THE
MODEL ALIGNED OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE EURO HINTS AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROSTY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE GFS FAVORS LESS AMPLIFICATION AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO THIS SOLUTION FAVORS
MILDER TEMPERATURES AS MUCH OF THE COLD AIR IS VECTORED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO THE
NORTH.

THE GFS HAS OFFERED STABILITY IN ITS SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WHILE THE EURO HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY.
MOREOVER, THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EURO SEEMS TO BE QUITE REMOVED
FROM THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES, SO FOR NOW, HAVE WEIGHTED OUR LONG
TERM FORECAST MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH INDICATES A
COOL SNAP, BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS COLD AS SUGGESTED IN THE EURO.

BY MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS, SIGNALING A GRADUAL WARM
UP AND A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.


.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE REGION. STAY
TUNED.


.HYDROLOGY...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RIVERS WILL
REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   57  85  62  79  50 /   0  10  20  10   0
Panama City   66  81  62  76  54 /  10  10  20  10   0
Dothan        61  82  55  75  45 /  10  30  20  10   0
Albany        59  83  55  77  46 /  10  20  20  10   0
Valdosta      57  83  58  79  51 /   0  10  20  10   0
Cross City    56  83  60  82  53 /   0  10  20  10   0
Apalachicola  65  79  64  77  53 /  10  10  20  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









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