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000
FXUS62 KTAE 230833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

Not much has changed with regards to the severe thunderstorm
potential today. Early this morning, a strong to severe squall
line was pushing rapidly eastward off the Texas coast. A peak gust
of 75 knots was measured on one of the elevated oil platforms
(KEMK) in the western Gulf in association with this line.
Meanwhile, a warm front was located just off the Florida panhandle
coast. This front is expected to lift northward this afternoon as
the squall line approaches the area. The shear with this system is
forecast to be quite strong, so the main question mark that will
control how much severe weather we receive over the next 12-24
hours will be how far north the warm front can return. The radar
imagery so far tonight does seem to show a northward progression
of the moderate to heavy rain shield across the area, so it still
looks like we could see enough destabilization this afternoon for
some severe storms. Given the very strong wind fields aloft
coupled with SBCAPE values possibly near or above 1000 j/kg across
the Florida panhandle and over 500 j/kg across the remainder of
the area with not too much CINH according to the mean of the CAM
guidance, storms may be more efficient in mixing down strong wind
gusts to the surface than in a typical cool season severe weather
scenario locally. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible
given the amount of shear forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The true synoptic cold front is expected to quickly translate east
from the Mississippi River Valley to about 87W longitude (Alabama)
overnight as the surface cyclone rapidly deepens in the Great
Lakes. Although daytime thunderstorms are expected to reduce the
instability across the area, numerical models indicate some
lingering weak instability in advance of the cold front through
the night, and some isolated to scattered convection redeveloping,
especially after 06Z as low-mid level forcing increases once
again. Some convection-allowing models based on the NAM show some
vigorous storms, but we believe this is because the most recent
NAM is overestimating available instability. Some of the showers
and storms may continue into Monday over the southeast half of our
area, ahead of the advancing front.

The cold front will begin to stall just southeast of our forecast
area Monday Night as the broad, high-amplitude trough over the
central CONUS maintains deep-layer southwesterly flow over our
region during that timeframe. Some showers will be possible just
behind the surface cold front over the southeast part of our area.
A strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough from the
southern Plains to Louisiana on Tuesday should increase QG forcing
sufficiently to allow rain to expand back into the forecast area.
Tuesday should be a cloudy, breezy, and cool day with rain.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Rain will continue into Tuesday Night and early Wednesday as the
ejecting shortwave facilitates surface cyclogenesis along the
stalled front in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula (just SE of
our area). The rain should end quickly on Wednesday as high
pressure and drier air build in. High pressure should dominate the
weather pattern for the rest of the week with no rain chances and
slowly moderating temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Monday] Moderate to occasionally heavy rain this
morning will continue to lift northeastward with a brief break
possible during the mid to late morning hours. By this afternoon,
a squall line is expected from west to east across the area with
IFR conditions and gusty winds. Some of the storms may be severe.

&&

.Marine...

No changes to the marine-related hazard products with this
forecast package, which includes a High Surf Advisory for Walton
and Bay Counties and a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of our
beaches. The Gale Warning for all but the far eastern legs of the
coastal waters still appears to be on track. Both of our 60NM
offshore buoys have recorded gale-force gusts already, with the
one south of Panama City recording a non-convective peak wind of
41 knots. Additionally, the C-Tower closer to shore just SSE of
St. George Island recently measured a 32 knot gust.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With moderate to heavy rainfall expected today, there are no fire
weather concerns for the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain is beginning to lift out of the area, but widespread 1-2 inch
totals have occurred over most (but not all) of the area already.
The amounts were slightly higher in the vicinity of Tallahassee.
A lull in the rain seems likely for this morning, before storms
move back in during the afternoon. Fast storm motions should
reduce QPF with this next round, so flooding issues are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  66  77  49  59 / 100  50  40  20  50
Panama City   74  65  73  50  58 / 100  40  30  10  30
Dothan        74  61  73  44  57 / 100  30  20  10  20
Albany        74  63  74  46  58 / 100  50  20  10  30
Valdosta      77  67  76  49  58 /  90  60  50  30  50
Cross City    79  68  76  52  62 /  70  50  50  40  60
Apalachicola  74  67  76  53  60 /  90  40  40  20  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM this morning to Midnight CST
     tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 230833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

Not much has changed with regards to the severe thunderstorm
potential today. Early this morning, a strong to severe squall
line was pushing rapidly eastward off the Texas coast. A peak gust
of 75 knots was measured on one of the elevated oil platforms
(KEMK) in the western Gulf in association with this line.
Meanwhile, a warm front was located just off the Florida panhandle
coast. This front is expected to lift northward this afternoon as
the squall line approaches the area. The shear with this system is
forecast to be quite strong, so the main question mark that will
control how much severe weather we receive over the next 12-24
hours will be how far north the warm front can return. The radar
imagery so far tonight does seem to show a northward progression
of the moderate to heavy rain shield across the area, so it still
looks like we could see enough destabilization this afternoon for
some severe storms. Given the very strong wind fields aloft
coupled with SBCAPE values possibly near or above 1000 j/kg across
the Florida panhandle and over 500 j/kg across the remainder of
the area with not too much CINH according to the mean of the CAM
guidance, storms may be more efficient in mixing down strong wind
gusts to the surface than in a typical cool season severe weather
scenario locally. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible
given the amount of shear forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The true synoptic cold front is expected to quickly translate east
from the Mississippi River Valley to about 87W longitude (Alabama)
overnight as the surface cyclone rapidly deepens in the Great
Lakes. Although daytime thunderstorms are expected to reduce the
instability across the area, numerical models indicate some
lingering weak instability in advance of the cold front through
the night, and some isolated to scattered convection redeveloping,
especially after 06Z as low-mid level forcing increases once
again. Some convection-allowing models based on the NAM show some
vigorous storms, but we believe this is because the most recent
NAM is overestimating available instability. Some of the showers
and storms may continue into Monday over the southeast half of our
area, ahead of the advancing front.

The cold front will begin to stall just southeast of our forecast
area Monday Night as the broad, high-amplitude trough over the
central CONUS maintains deep-layer southwesterly flow over our
region during that timeframe. Some showers will be possible just
behind the surface cold front over the southeast part of our area.
A strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough from the
southern Plains to Louisiana on Tuesday should increase QG forcing
sufficiently to allow rain to expand back into the forecast area.
Tuesday should be a cloudy, breezy, and cool day with rain.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Rain will continue into Tuesday Night and early Wednesday as the
ejecting shortwave facilitates surface cyclogenesis along the
stalled front in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula (just SE of
our area). The rain should end quickly on Wednesday as high
pressure and drier air build in. High pressure should dominate the
weather pattern for the rest of the week with no rain chances and
slowly moderating temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Monday] Moderate to occasionally heavy rain this
morning will continue to lift northeastward with a brief break
possible during the mid to late morning hours. By this afternoon,
a squall line is expected from west to east across the area with
IFR conditions and gusty winds. Some of the storms may be severe.

&&

.Marine...

No changes to the marine-related hazard products with this
forecast package, which includes a High Surf Advisory for Walton
and Bay Counties and a High Risk of Rip Currents for all of our
beaches. The Gale Warning for all but the far eastern legs of the
coastal waters still appears to be on track. Both of our 60NM
offshore buoys have recorded gale-force gusts already, with the
one south of Panama City recording a non-convective peak wind of
41 knots. Additionally, the C-Tower closer to shore just SSE of
St. George Island recently measured a 32 knot gust.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With moderate to heavy rainfall expected today, there are no fire
weather concerns for the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain is beginning to lift out of the area, but widespread 1-2 inch
totals have occurred over most (but not all) of the area already.
The amounts were slightly higher in the vicinity of Tallahassee.
A lull in the rain seems likely for this morning, before storms
move back in during the afternoon. Fast storm motions should
reduce QPF with this next round, so flooding issues are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  66  77  49  59 / 100  50  40  20  50
Panama City   74  65  73  50  58 / 100  40  30  10  30
Dothan        74  61  73  44  57 / 100  30  20  10  20
Albany        74  63  74  46  58 / 100  50  20  10  30
Valdosta      77  67  76  49  58 /  90  60  50  30  50
Cross City    79  68  76  52  62 /  70  50  50  40  60
Apalachicola  74  67  76  53  60 /  90  40  40  20  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM this morning to Midnight CST
     tonight for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230254
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Lead shortwave is helping to enhance isentropic lift across the
region this evening, with a large area of light to moderate rain
marching north across the forecast area. Developing warm front
remain well south over the central Gulf. However, this boundary
will begin to lift north overnight, reaching the northern Gulf
Coast after sunrise. North of the front, the widespread rain will
continue, with occasional embedded thunderstorms. No major changes
need for the forecast with categorical PoPs largely in place
already. Rain may occasionally be heavy, but rather dry antecedent
conditions should limit overall flood threat.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] Cigs will continue to fall through the
overnight hours as a large area of rain lifts north across the
region. Expect terminals to be close to or below IFR conditions
for most of the night. Cigs likely to lift during the morning,
from south to north, as a warm front lifts north. Thunderstorms
may then impact the terminals from west to east during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By dawn on Sunday, the aforementioned area of heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms will be steadily moving north through the
region. At the same time, the aforementioned northern stream
anomaly will be quickly approaching. The core of this system will
likely pass just northwest of us, through central MS & AL, into
TN. However, due to the strength and size of this system 40-50kts
of deep layer shear will still be able to reach the Tri- State
region, coincident with with a recovering boundary layer yielding
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and a strong LLJ. While there may be
some discrete convection ahead of the main squall line, the
greatest threat for more widespread severe coverage will occur
along along the expected squall line forecast to enter our
Panhandle and Alabama counties around mid afternoon. Both damaging
thunderstorm winds and tornadoes should be expected with any
discrete development and along the squall. The severe threat will
gradually diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the
squall progresses east; with a much lower threat for severe
weather east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany as both wind
shear and instability wane.

A weak front will bisect the region through the day on Monday as
deep layer southerly flow impedes the forward progress of the
system. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected
Sunday night through Monday, especially along and east of a line
from Panama City through Albany. However, these storms are not
expected to become severe.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The amplifying northern stream longwave trough will finally push
the surface front and any moisture out of the region by Wednesday
evening. In its wake, dry conditions with highs in the lower to
middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 30s are anticipated
through the remainder of the week.


.Marine...

A very strong low pressure system will yield solid advisory
conditions through Sunday night. On Sunday, frequent gusts to Gale
force are expected. Thus have kept the Gale warning in place.
Strong to severe storms will also be possible across the northeast
Gulf late tonight, but more likely on Sunday. While advisory
conditions will come to an end on Monday, expect cautionary
conditions to continue until another front increases winds again
Tuesday into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...

Wet weather will minimize any fire weather risk through Sunday. By
Monday, a drier airmass will move into the region but humidity
values are forecast to remain above critical levels.


.Hydrology...

Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tonight through
Sunday night, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with
local amounts up to 4 inches possible. This will cause rises on
smaller creeks and rivers next week. Since rivers are all very low
at this time, the only river that we are expecting to get to minor
flood stage is the Kinchafoonee River at Dawson, possibly by mid
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  76  64  79  49 / 100 100  50  40  20
Panama City   63  74  64  75  51 / 100 100  50  30  10
Dothan        59  74  59  73  44 / 100 100  40  20  10
Albany        60  74  61  75  46 / 100 100  50  30  10
Valdosta      60  77  67  78  50 / 100  80  70  50  20
Cross City    63  78  67  78  53 / 100  60  60  50  20
Apalachicola  66  74  66  76  53 / 100 100  50  50  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to Midnight CST Sunday Night
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230254
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Lead shortwave is helping to enhance isentropic lift across the
region this evening, with a large area of light to moderate rain
marching north across the forecast area. Developing warm front
remain well south over the central Gulf. However, this boundary
will begin to lift north overnight, reaching the northern Gulf
Coast after sunrise. North of the front, the widespread rain will
continue, with occasional embedded thunderstorms. No major changes
need for the forecast with categorical PoPs largely in place
already. Rain may occasionally be heavy, but rather dry antecedent
conditions should limit overall flood threat.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] Cigs will continue to fall through the
overnight hours as a large area of rain lifts north across the
region. Expect terminals to be close to or below IFR conditions
for most of the night. Cigs likely to lift during the morning,
from south to north, as a warm front lifts north. Thunderstorms
may then impact the terminals from west to east during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By dawn on Sunday, the aforementioned area of heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms will be steadily moving north through the
region. At the same time, the aforementioned northern stream
anomaly will be quickly approaching. The core of this system will
likely pass just northwest of us, through central MS & AL, into
TN. However, due to the strength and size of this system 40-50kts
of deep layer shear will still be able to reach the Tri- State
region, coincident with with a recovering boundary layer yielding
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and a strong LLJ. While there may be
some discrete convection ahead of the main squall line, the
greatest threat for more widespread severe coverage will occur
along along the expected squall line forecast to enter our
Panhandle and Alabama counties around mid afternoon. Both damaging
thunderstorm winds and tornadoes should be expected with any
discrete development and along the squall. The severe threat will
gradually diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the
squall progresses east; with a much lower threat for severe
weather east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany as both wind
shear and instability wane.

A weak front will bisect the region through the day on Monday as
deep layer southerly flow impedes the forward progress of the
system. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected
Sunday night through Monday, especially along and east of a line
from Panama City through Albany. However, these storms are not
expected to become severe.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The amplifying northern stream longwave trough will finally push
the surface front and any moisture out of the region by Wednesday
evening. In its wake, dry conditions with highs in the lower to
middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 30s are anticipated
through the remainder of the week.


.Marine...

A very strong low pressure system will yield solid advisory
conditions through Sunday night. On Sunday, frequent gusts to Gale
force are expected. Thus have kept the Gale warning in place.
Strong to severe storms will also be possible across the northeast
Gulf late tonight, but more likely on Sunday. While advisory
conditions will come to an end on Monday, expect cautionary
conditions to continue until another front increases winds again
Tuesday into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...

Wet weather will minimize any fire weather risk through Sunday. By
Monday, a drier airmass will move into the region but humidity
values are forecast to remain above critical levels.


.Hydrology...

Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tonight through
Sunday night, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with
local amounts up to 4 inches possible. This will cause rises on
smaller creeks and rivers next week. Since rivers are all very low
at this time, the only river that we are expecting to get to minor
flood stage is the Kinchafoonee River at Dawson, possibly by mid
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  76  64  79  49 / 100 100  50  40  20
Panama City   63  74  64  75  51 / 100 100  50  30  10
Dothan        59  74  59  73  44 / 100 100  40  20  10
Albany        60  74  61  75  46 / 100 100  50  30  10
Valdosta      60  77  67  78  50 / 100  80  70  50  20
Cross City    63  78  67  78  53 / 100  60  60  50  20
Apalachicola  66  74  66  76  53 / 100 100  50  50  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to Midnight CST Sunday Night
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH









000
FXUS62 KTAE 222116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A strong northern stream +PV anomaly is merging in with a southern
stream anomaly over the northwest Gulf coast this afternoon. In
the low-levels, flow is veering as high pressure is forced eastward
by the advancing low pressure system. This morning, the veering
flow forced a warm and very moist airmass across the eastern Gulf
and Florida Peninsula, over a cooler airmass in place locally.
This resulted in light to moderate isentropic rain across the
entire Tri-State region that continues at this hour. Expect waves
of light to moderate rain to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon.

Further south in the eastern Gulf, a surface trough is forming
where the nose of the southern stream anomaly is spreading away
from the northern stream flow, resulting in enhanced diffluence
aloft. Since midday, convection has steadily increased in this
region. Through the night, convection in the Gulf is expected to
become more robust and move north in the increasingly southerly
flow regime. This will force the trough/warm front north to the
northeast Gulf coast very early on Sunday morning. Thus, through
the night expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue to
move north across the region with rainfall becoming much heavier.
At this time, severe weather is not expected overnight as storms
are unlikely to be rooted at the surface.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By dawn on Sunday, the aforementioned area of heavy rain and
isolated thunderstorms will be steadily moving north through the
region. At the same time, the aforementioned northern stream
anomaly will be quickly approaching. The core of this system will
likely pass just northwest of us, through central MS & AL, into
TN. However, due to the strength and size of this system 40-50kts
of deep layer shear will still be able to reach the Tri- State
region, coincident with with a recovering boundary layer yielding
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and a strong LLJ. While there may be
some discrete convection ahead of the main squall line, the
greatest threat for more widespread severe coverage will occur
along along the expected squall line forecast to enter our
Panhandle and Alabama counties around mid afternoon. Both damaging
thunderstorm winds and tornadoes should be expected with any
discrete development and along the squall. The severe threat will
gradually diminish through the late afternoon and evening as the
squall progresses east; with a much lower threat for severe
weather east of a line from Tallahassee to Albany as both wind
shear and instability wane.

A weak front will bisect the region through the day on Monday as
deep layer southerly flow impedes the forward progress of the
system. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should be expected
Sunday night through Monday, especially along and east of a line
from Panama City through Albany. However, these storms are not
expected to become severe.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The amplifying northern stream longwave trough will finally push
the surface front and any moisture out of the region by Wednesday
evening. In its wake, dry conditions with highs in the lower to
middle 60s and lows in the middle to upper 30s are anticipated
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

MVFR to IFR conditions will spread north from the coast through the
remainder of the afternoon, reaching KABY and KDHN by sunset. Cigs
will remain low through Sunday morning. Cigs may rise by late
morning or early afternoon. However, thunderstorms will be likely
thereafter.

&&

.Marine...

A very strong low pressure system will yield solid advisory
conditions through Sunday night. On Sunday, frequent gusts to Gale
force are expected. Thus have kept the Gale warning in place.
Strong to severe storms will also be possible across the northeast
Gulf late tonight, but more likely on Sunday. While advisory
conditions will come to an end on Monday, expect cautionary
conditions to continue until another front increases winds again
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Wet weather will minimize any fire weather risk through Sunday. By
Monday, a drier airmass will move into the region but humidity
values are forecast to remain above critical levels.

&&

.Hydrology...

Periods of heavy rain will move through the region tonight through
Sunday night, resulting in total rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with
local amounts up to 4 inches possible. This will cause rises on
smaller creeks and rivers next week. Since rivers are all very low
at this time, the only river that we are expecting to get to minor
flood stage is the Kinchafoonee River at Dawson, possibly by mid
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  76  64  79  49 / 100 100  50  40  20
Panama City   63  74  64  75  51 / 100 100  50  30  10
Dothan        59  74  59  73  44 / 100 100  40  20  10
Albany        60  74  61  75  46 / 100 100  50  30  10
Valdosta      60  77  67  78  50 / 100  80  70  50  20
Cross City    63  78  67  78  53 / 100  60  60  50  20
Apalachicola  66  74  66  76  53 / 100 100  50  50  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to Midnight CST Sunday Night
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH







000
FXUS62 KTAE 221533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With a 1036 mb High Pressure ridge parked over eastern NC late
this morning, the effects of isentropic lift are already beginning
to take shape rapidly across the CWA. VFR level Cigs are forming
and advecting northward very quickly, with light rain already
beginning to develop over much of Apalachee Bay. While today`s
rainfall should be light, PoPs will be fairly high nonetheless,
especially across the Florida Big Bend where by 21 UTC, they are
expected to range from 50 percent near the Apalachicola River to
near 80 percent over Dixie county in the SE FL Big Bend. For those
planning outdoor activities in Leon County, rain chances should be
in the likely category (PoPs in the upper 50s to middle 60s).

&&

.Prev Discussion [455 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.


.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.


.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  70  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  50  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  80  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  70  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 221533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With a 1036 mb High Pressure ridge parked over eastern NC late
this morning, the effects of isentropic lift are already beginning
to take shape rapidly across the CWA. VFR level Cigs are forming
and advecting northward very quickly, with light rain already
beginning to develop over much of Apalachee Bay. While today`s
rainfall should be light, PoPs will be fairly high nonetheless,
especially across the Florida Big Bend where by 21 UTC, they are
expected to range from 50 percent near the Apalachicola River to
near 80 percent over Dixie county in the SE FL Big Bend. For those
planning outdoor activities in Leon County, rain chances should be
in the likely category (PoPs in the upper 50s to middle 60s).

&&

.Prev Discussion [455 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.


.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.


.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  70  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  50  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  80  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  70  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a potent
shortwave digging through the southwest states. Quite a few CG
lightning strikes have been detected with this feature in northern
Mexico, which is another sign that it`s a potent disturbance.
Closer to home, a warm front will start to develop over the Gulf
this afternoon with gradually increasing moisture and lift across
the area. We expect light rain to gradually develop from south to
north through the afternoon hours, primarily affecting the Florida
big bend, but most of it is not expected until after 4 pm EST.
Farther north and west into Alabama and Georgia, PoPs are lower
with most of the rain expected to hold off until tonight. Amounts
today will generally be on the order of a tenth of an inch or
less. Highs are expected to range from the mid 60s across the far
north to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  60  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  40  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  70  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  60  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Risk of Rip Currents for coastal parts of Bay, Franklin,
     Gulf, and Walton Counties from 1 PM EST this afternoon through
     late Sunday Night.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a potent
shortwave digging through the southwest states. Quite a few CG
lightning strikes have been detected with this feature in northern
Mexico, which is another sign that it`s a potent disturbance.
Closer to home, a warm front will start to develop over the Gulf
this afternoon with gradually increasing moisture and lift across
the area. We expect light rain to gradually develop from south to
north through the afternoon hours, primarily affecting the Florida
big bend, but most of it is not expected until after 4 pm EST.
Farther north and west into Alabama and Georgia, PoPs are lower
with most of the rain expected to hold off until tonight. Amounts
today will generally be on the order of a tenth of an inch or
less. Highs are expected to range from the mid 60s across the far
north to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  60  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  40  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  70  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  60  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Risk of Rip Currents for coastal parts of Bay, Franklin,
     Gulf, and Walton Counties from 1 PM EST this afternoon through
     late Sunday Night.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 220955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a potent
shortwave digging through the southwest states. Quite a few CG
lightning strikes have been detected with this feature in northern
Mexico, which is another sign that it`s a potent disturbance.
Closer to home, a warm front will start to develop over the Gulf
this afternoon with gradually increasing moisture and lift across
the area. We expect light rain to gradually develop from south to
north through the afternoon hours, primarily affecting the Florida
big bend, but most of it is not expected until after 4 pm EST.
Farther north and west into Alabama and Georgia, PoPs are lower
with most of the rain expected to hold off until tonight. Amounts
today will generally be on the order of a tenth of an inch or
less. Highs are expected to range from the mid 60s across the far
north to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  60  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  40  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  70  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  60  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Risk of Rip Currents for coastal parts of Bay, Franklin,
     Gulf, and Walton Counties from 1 PM EST this afternoon through
     late Sunday Night.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 220955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The water vapor imagery early this morning depicts a potent
shortwave digging through the southwest states. Quite a few CG
lightning strikes have been detected with this feature in northern
Mexico, which is another sign that it`s a potent disturbance.
Closer to home, a warm front will start to develop over the Gulf
this afternoon with gradually increasing moisture and lift across
the area. We expect light rain to gradually develop from south to
north through the afternoon hours, primarily affecting the Florida
big bend, but most of it is not expected until after 4 pm EST.
Farther north and west into Alabama and Georgia, PoPs are lower
with most of the rain expected to hold off until tonight. Amounts
today will generally be on the order of a tenth of an inch or
less. Highs are expected to range from the mid 60s across the far
north to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Confidence has increased in a severe weather event for our
forecast area on Sunday - particularly over the western half of
our forecast area (southeast Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle). The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those
areas in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on their latest
Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Prior to the severe weather risk, we should have a round of rain
(and some embedded, elevated storms). This will occur primarily
from late this afternoon, as discussed above, into tonight and
will be forced by low-level WAA and isentropic ascent to the north
of the surface warm front over the Gulf. There is not much
instability, even for elevated parcels, so the sensible weather
was worded more for a steady rain with the possibility of isolated
storms. We are forecasting an areal average of around 1" of QPF
overnight, although some locally higher totals are possible.

There is fairly good model consensus on clearing much of this rain
north of our area quickly between 12Z and 15Z Sunday as the
surface warm front surges inland in response to rapid deepening of
the surface low in the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Some of the
global models generate some convection near the coast in the
morning, but we are leaning towards a brief clearing at this point
given that the strongest low-level forcing will be displaced
north, with mid-upper level forcing yet to arrive from the west.

The potent shortwave / PV anomaly referenced in the near term
discussion will eject quickly east-northeast from coastal Texas
tonight, to central and northern Georgia by Sunday evening. Both
global models and convection-allowing models indicate vigorous
convection along this lobe of strong forcing, and the timing is
relatively similar across the board. Therefore, we expect that
there will be some sort of QLCS in progress near coastal Louisiana
and into the NW Gulf of Mexico by daybreak Sunday, and that should
quickly translate east into our area by early afternoon. While
some CAMs show a continuous line of storms, others indicate mixed
modes of line segments and supercells. Given the strong forcing
associated with the ejecting wave, we anticipate primarily linear
modes, but some fore-running supercells, line mesovortices, or
broken line segments will also be possible. Given the model
consensus timing, the primary severe weather risk should be
between about 18Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

Probabilistic guidance, as well as the SPC forecast, indicate the
greatest threat of severe weather will be over the western half of
our forecast area. The environment will be favorable for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Strong low-mid level wind fields are
expected with 850mb winds around 50 knots and 700mb winds around
60 knots. These should help facilitate fast storm motions, and
downward momentum transfer of some of the stronger winds supports
the damaging wind threat. Meanwhile, by 18Z Sunday an average of
the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF show MLCAPE of 600 j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 190,
and 0-6km shear of 55 knots - certainly a favorable environment
for supercell thunderstorms and a tornado risk. The threat of
tornadoes would be higher if discrete cells can form. However,
there will be a significant component of the 0-3km (low-mid level)
shear vector normal to the expected line of storms - likely around
40 knots or so. Such values tend to correspond to an increased
risk of tornadoes and enhanced wind damage from QLCS mesovortices.
To summarize: the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes, and we think the severe weather could be a little more
widespread and/or significant than a typical wintertime event.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday Night]...

Although the storms are likely to exit quickly Sunday evening, the
synoptic cold front (and upper level longwave trough axis) will
still be positioned well west of the area. This should allow for
continued showers in the east/southeast parts of our forecast area
through Tuesday. As the trough begins to push east on Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of the trough
could lead to coastal low development along the cold front off the
southeast Atlantic coast. This may lead to one final round of rain
over the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday before we finally dry
out on Wednesday Night. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday
and should linger through the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but as low level moisture continues to increase
and a warm front begins to lift northward from the Gulf, ceilings
are expected to lower to MVFR levels this afternoon from south to
north with some showers beginning to stream northward from the
Gulf, possibly affecting ECP, TLH, and VLD before sunset. After
sunset, rain is expected to overspread the area with ceilings
continuing to lower to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

Buoy and offshore tower observations support the current Small
Craft Advisory, and easterly winds of 20-25 knots are expected to
persist through this evening over most of the coastal waters. The
winds will begin to veer to the south late tonight and into
Sunday, with 20-25 knots spreading all the way to the Apalachee
Bay and Big Bend coastline. The majority of model guidance is
indicating gale force gusts later tonight and on Sunday, with some
models as high as 40 knots or so. Therefore, we have issued a Gale
Warning for all but the far eastern legs beginning 06Z tonight.

The latest extratropical surge guidance, based on the 00Z GFS
winds (which seem reasonable), has reduced surge forecasts on
Sunday morning in Apalachee Bay. Flooding is not expected, but
water levels may be higher than usual following the early morning
high tide. High surf is expected on Sunday, though, with our
current forecast calling for 7 foot surf. A High Surf Advisory will
likely be issued later today for our beaches.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Rain will overspread the area from south to north starting late in
the day today through Sunday with wet flags likely on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 3 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 24 hour period from Saturday Night into Sunday. Low river
levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with these high
totals. Some localized flooding will be possible in the more
urbanized locations that receive higher rain totals over a short
period of time, but the threat of flash flooding does not appear
to be sufficiently high to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  61  74  63  77 /  60  90  70  40  40
Panama City   67  64  74  66  73 /  40  90  70  30  20
Dothan        67  58  73  61  74 /  30  90  90  20  20
Albany        67  58  72  62  75 /  30  90  90  40  30
Valdosta      69  60  75  63  76 /  50  90  90  40  50
Cross City    72  64  77  64  76 /  70  90  80  40  50
Apalachicola  70  65  74  67  75 /  60  90  60  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Risk of Rip Currents for coastal parts of Bay, Franklin,
     Gulf, and Walton Counties from 1 PM EST this afternoon through
     late Sunday Night.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220205
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A quiet evening is in store for tonight as we begin the transition
from dry and stable conditions to an active pattern. Light E
and ENE winds will reign over the CWA through tonight and will begin
to increase early tomorrow afternoon. Winds should not go calm and
accounting for the slow addition of Atlantic moisture, expect lows
to be in the middle 40s for most of the CWA. Lows are forecast to be
near 40 in N and NW parts of the area near Dothan and Albany, and in
the upper 40s in SE parts near Cross City.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR Conditions are expected through most of the
TAF period. The  only uncertainty is how quickly VCSH and low cigs
move in from the S and SE. Skies will start out clear tonight but
cirrus will begin building in from SE to NW early this morning. By
19z, all terminals should at least see BKN cigs at or below 5000ft
with decreases first occurring at SE terminals (VLD and TLH) and then
moving NW through the afternoon. Expect near MVFR cigs (BKN035) and
VCSH to move into ECP, TLH, and VLD after 21z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [446 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.


.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP/DOBBS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







000
FXUS62 KTAE 220205
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A quiet evening is in store for tonight as we begin the transition
from dry and stable conditions to an active pattern. Light E
and ENE winds will reign over the CWA through tonight and will begin
to increase early tomorrow afternoon. Winds should not go calm and
accounting for the slow addition of Atlantic moisture, expect lows
to be in the middle 40s for most of the CWA. Lows are forecast to be
near 40 in N and NW parts of the area near Dothan and Albany, and in
the upper 40s in SE parts near Cross City.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR Conditions are expected through most of the
TAF period. The  only uncertainty is how quickly VCSH and low cigs
move in from the S and SE. Skies will start out clear tonight but
cirrus will begin building in from SE to NW early this morning. By
19z, all terminals should at least see BKN cigs at or below 5000ft
with decreases first occurring at SE terminals (VLD and TLH) and then
moving NW through the afternoon. Expect near MVFR cigs (BKN035) and
VCSH to move into ECP, TLH, and VLD after 21z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [446 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.


.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP/DOBBS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 212146
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very uneventful near term period, with mostly clear skies and a
gradual warming trend. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well
to the NE to the upper 40s near the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
some increasing cloudiness during the afternoon hours. Also, winds
nay become a bit breezy out of the E and NE (greater than 10 kts)
from early in the afternoon onwards.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







000
FXUS62 KTAE 212146
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very uneventful near term period, with mostly clear skies and a
gradual warming trend. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well
to the NE to the upper 40s near the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
some increasing cloudiness during the afternoon hours. Also, winds
nay become a bit breezy out of the E and NE (greater than 10 kts)
from early in the afternoon onwards.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 212146
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very uneventful near term period, with mostly clear skies and a
gradual warming trend. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well
to the NE to the upper 40s near the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
some increasing cloudiness during the afternoon hours. Also, winds
nay become a bit breezy out of the E and NE (greater than 10 kts)
from early in the afternoon onwards.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 212146
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very uneventful near term period, with mostly clear skies and a
gradual warming trend. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well
to the NE to the upper 40s near the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow locally will begin to amplify on
Saturday afternoon in response to a strong shortwave forecast to
be passing through Texas. A southern stream PV anomaly will
energize convection in the western to central Gulf on Saturday,
spreading into the northeast Gulf late Saturday night. The
developing warm front will lift into the Tri-State region very
early on Sunday morning. Anomalously high PWAT values will combine
with a strong southerly low-level jet and boundary parallel upper-
layer flow to present a threat for very heavy rainfall. Widespread
average rainfall amounts of 2.5"-3.5" will be possible over a
relatively short period of time. Due to the progressive nature of
the system, any sort of significant flooding is not expected at
this time. For further information on the heavy rain threat
reference the hydrology section below. Impressive wind shear
profiles suggest a non-zero threat for an isolated severe
thunderstorm during the overnight hours, though pretty much all
thunderstorms should be elevated during this period.

On the heels of the aforementioned system, the previously
mentioned strong northern stream shortwave will be moving into the
Tri-State region. Once again, very impressive shear profiles will
overspread the region from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon hours on Sunday. The main question will be just how
much instability will be present in the wake of the morning
rainfall. Early indications from some of our high resolution
modeling suggests a quicker progression of the morning rainfall
and thus a better chance for destabilization during the day on
Sunday, while the global-scale models indicate very little surface
destabilization and lingering rain through the day on Sunday. With
the event just starting to fall within the range of the higher
resolution models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty but given
the fact that the global-scale models tend to be a bit slow with
isentropic rain development, it is certainly possible that the
hires models may be on to something. Should the severe threat pan
out, the primary threats would be damaging winds and tornadoes
within discrete supercells.

The more dynamic shortwave will move out of the region by Sunday
evening, stalling a weak front across the region. Continued
southern stream support will keep the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the night on Sunday, but the severe
threat will have come to an end.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

The primary northern stream longwave trough will gradually
approach through Tuesday. Increased diffluence between the
northern stream and southern stream anomalies will continue to
support primarily showers across the eastern half of the region
until a stronger cold front clears out all of the rain by
Wednesday morning. Arctic high pressure will fill in across the
Southeast on Wednesday, capping afternoon highs in the 50s to
finish out the week. Overnight lows starting on Wednesday night
will fall back into, at least, the lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
some increasing cloudiness during the afternoon hours. Also, winds
nay become a bit breezy out of the E and NE (greater than 10 kts)
from early in the afternoon onwards.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level winds and seas should be expected through Sunday
associated with a complex frontal system. A temporary dip below
headline levels is expected on Monday before another strong cold
front re-introduces headline conditions on Tuesday, possibly
through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing low level moisture and rain chances, no Red Flag
concerns are expected through the weekend. In fact, Wet Flags are
expected on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Storm total rainfall amounts Saturday through Tuesday will be on
the order of 2 to 4 inches, with most of the rainfall coming over
a 12 hour period late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Low
river levels will likely prevent any river flooding even with
these high totals. However, there is a concern for some localized
flooding in the more urbanized locations that receive the higher
totals over a short period of time. Any decisions about a Flash
Flood watch will likely come overnight tonight, or tomorrow
afternoon when more guidance becomes available.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  60  75  64 /   0  20 100  70  50
Panama City   49  67  63  75  66 /   0  30 100  80  50
Dothan        40  65  56  74  62 /   0  10 100  80  40
Albany        39  65  56  74  63 /   0  10 100  80  50
Valdosta      43  68  58  76  64 /   0  20 100  80  50
Cross City    49  72  63  77  64 /   0  20 100  60  40
Apalachicola  51  67  66  74  67 /   0  30 100  60  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







000
FXUS62 KTAE 211546
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1046 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Current fcst over land looks well on track with high temps
expected to recover into the middle to upper 60s. Over the coastal
waters, even though a Small Craft Advisory is already in effect as
of 1 PM EST this afternoon, winds and seas are increasing out of
the E-NE a bit ahead of schedule, so did tweak winds up 2-4 kts,
and seas up 1-2 feet over the bulk of the marine area through
Saturday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The catalyst for our changes in the weather along the Gulf coast
in the short term period is a potent mid-upper level shortwave
trough evident in early morning water vapor loops over southern
California. Model analyses indicate the dynamic tropopause (PV1.5)
is down around 500mb associated with the PV anomaly, and there was
even a few CG lightning strikes noted near the San Francisco Bay
area. All of these are indicators of a strong wave, and models are
in good agreement with digging it ESE to central Texas by Saturday
afternoon. The consensus then has the wave ejecting ENE with a
negative tilt into the Deep South on Sunday.

The strength of the ejecting shortwave (500mb height anomalies as
low as 2 to 2.5 std deviations below normal LA-AL) will lead to a
strengthening low-mid level wind field on Sunday, with 850-700mb
winds above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Those
increasing wind fields will lead to strong northward moisture
flux. When combined with overall strong QG forcing and above
normal precipitable water values (+2 std deviations), the rain
chances are quite high from Saturday Night into Sunday.

It appears as though an area of rain, and perhaps embedded
elevated thunderstorms, will take shape over the northern Gulf on
Saturday Night in the low-level WAA / isentropic ascent regime
north of a surface warm front. Model forecast soundings indicate
very little instability with a moist adiabatic profile through
much of the troposphere and a shallow inversion near the surface.
This should limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
initially, but moderate to occasionally heavy rain appears likely.
As the surface warm front surges north on Sunday morning in
response to strong surface pressure falls from the Ozarks into the
Deep South, our forecast area should enter the warm sector. Most
model guidance builds MLCAPE over 500 j/kg over at least part of
the area (some close to 1000 j/kg) coincident with about 50-60
knots of deep layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-1km shear. This is
a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, and a second
round of convection is expected to develop. The latest SPC Day 3
Convective Outlook places a Slight Risk across our entire area.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Most models agree that a lagging mid-upper level trough axis over
the Plains will keep at least moderate QG forcing in place over
our forecast area through Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances were
maintained in the forecast through that time, although we removed
the mention of thunder as instability should be lower by that
time. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
before slow moderation toward the end of the week.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with ENE winds just under 10 knots developing
during the mid-morning hours.


.Marine...

We have issued a Small Craft Advisory, except for the far eastern
nearshore legs, valid through the weekend. Winds should gradually
increase today and could hit 20 knots offshore by this afternoon.
For that reason the advisory was started at 18Z. Easterly winds of
20-25 knots will persist through Saturday Night before veering to
the south on Sunday. It will be around that time of the wind shift
that winds should finally begin to increase in the far eastern
legs. So SCEC headlines and then an advisory are likely at some
point for those areas. Model wind gust guidance indicates some
gusts to near gale force will be possible over the coastal waters
from late Saturday Night into Sunday, but as of right now it seems
too limited in scope to warrant any gale headlines.

Related to the increasingly strong onshore flow on Sunday, the
current forecast also calls for surf heights at area beaches to
peak in the 6-7 foot range which would warrant a High Surf
Advisory. The extratropical surge guidance, based on the GFS
model, does indicate an increase in water levels in Apalachee Bay
on Sunday morning to action stage (just shy of flood levels).
However, (1) the GFS model may be overestimating surface winds at
that time -AND- (2) any surge appears likely to happen after high
tide which would reduce the possible water levels. This will be
monitored as the event approaches as specific timing and wind
speeds will make a big difference.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will gradually increase starting today with
widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday night through
Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Moderate to heavy rainfall looks likely from Saturday Night into
Sunday, with some rain possibly persisting into Monday and
Tuesday. Rainfall totals from Saturday into early next week look
to be mainly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches, on average. This should
not be sufficient to create widespread flooding given current low
flows on area rivers. Still, some minor flooding on a few of the
rivers cannot be ruled out if a more concentrated area of heavier
rainfall were to fall in a large part of a drainage basin. In
urbanized areas, minor flooding problems will also be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  44  70  63  73 /   0   0  20  90  90
Panama City   66  50  69  65  72 /   0   0  30  90  80
Dothan        67  43  67  60  73 /   0   0  20  90  80
Albany        66  41  67  60  72 /   0   0  10  90  90
Valdosta      66  45  70  62  73 /   0  10  10  90  90
Cross City    70  46  75  65  74 /   0  10  20  90  80
Apalachicola  68  51  69  66  73 /   0   0  30  90  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211546
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1046 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Current fcst over land looks well on track with high temps
expected to recover into the middle to upper 60s. Over the coastal
waters, even though a Small Craft Advisory is already in effect as
of 1 PM EST this afternoon, winds and seas are increasing out of
the E-NE a bit ahead of schedule, so did tweak winds up 2-4 kts,
and seas up 1-2 feet over the bulk of the marine area through
Saturday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The catalyst for our changes in the weather along the Gulf coast
in the short term period is a potent mid-upper level shortwave
trough evident in early morning water vapor loops over southern
California. Model analyses indicate the dynamic tropopause (PV1.5)
is down around 500mb associated with the PV anomaly, and there was
even a few CG lightning strikes noted near the San Francisco Bay
area. All of these are indicators of a strong wave, and models are
in good agreement with digging it ESE to central Texas by Saturday
afternoon. The consensus then has the wave ejecting ENE with a
negative tilt into the Deep South on Sunday.

The strength of the ejecting shortwave (500mb height anomalies as
low as 2 to 2.5 std deviations below normal LA-AL) will lead to a
strengthening low-mid level wind field on Sunday, with 850-700mb
winds above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Those
increasing wind fields will lead to strong northward moisture
flux. When combined with overall strong QG forcing and above
normal precipitable water values (+2 std deviations), the rain
chances are quite high from Saturday Night into Sunday.

It appears as though an area of rain, and perhaps embedded
elevated thunderstorms, will take shape over the northern Gulf on
Saturday Night in the low-level WAA / isentropic ascent regime
north of a surface warm front. Model forecast soundings indicate
very little instability with a moist adiabatic profile through
much of the troposphere and a shallow inversion near the surface.
This should limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
initially, but moderate to occasionally heavy rain appears likely.
As the surface warm front surges north on Sunday morning in
response to strong surface pressure falls from the Ozarks into the
Deep South, our forecast area should enter the warm sector. Most
model guidance builds MLCAPE over 500 j/kg over at least part of
the area (some close to 1000 j/kg) coincident with about 50-60
knots of deep layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-1km shear. This is
a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, and a second
round of convection is expected to develop. The latest SPC Day 3
Convective Outlook places a Slight Risk across our entire area.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Most models agree that a lagging mid-upper level trough axis over
the Plains will keep at least moderate QG forcing in place over
our forecast area through Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances were
maintained in the forecast through that time, although we removed
the mention of thunder as instability should be lower by that
time. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
before slow moderation toward the end of the week.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with ENE winds just under 10 knots developing
during the mid-morning hours.


.Marine...

We have issued a Small Craft Advisory, except for the far eastern
nearshore legs, valid through the weekend. Winds should gradually
increase today and could hit 20 knots offshore by this afternoon.
For that reason the advisory was started at 18Z. Easterly winds of
20-25 knots will persist through Saturday Night before veering to
the south on Sunday. It will be around that time of the wind shift
that winds should finally begin to increase in the far eastern
legs. So SCEC headlines and then an advisory are likely at some
point for those areas. Model wind gust guidance indicates some
gusts to near gale force will be possible over the coastal waters
from late Saturday Night into Sunday, but as of right now it seems
too limited in scope to warrant any gale headlines.

Related to the increasingly strong onshore flow on Sunday, the
current forecast also calls for surf heights at area beaches to
peak in the 6-7 foot range which would warrant a High Surf
Advisory. The extratropical surge guidance, based on the GFS
model, does indicate an increase in water levels in Apalachee Bay
on Sunday morning to action stage (just shy of flood levels).
However, (1) the GFS model may be overestimating surface winds at
that time -AND- (2) any surge appears likely to happen after high
tide which would reduce the possible water levels. This will be
monitored as the event approaches as specific timing and wind
speeds will make a big difference.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will gradually increase starting today with
widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday night through
Sunday.


.Hydrology...

Moderate to heavy rainfall looks likely from Saturday Night into
Sunday, with some rain possibly persisting into Monday and
Tuesday. Rainfall totals from Saturday into early next week look
to be mainly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches, on average. This should
not be sufficient to create widespread flooding given current low
flows on area rivers. Still, some minor flooding on a few of the
rivers cannot be ruled out if a more concentrated area of heavier
rainfall were to fall in a large part of a drainage basin. In
urbanized areas, minor flooding problems will also be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  44  70  63  73 /   0   0  20  90  90
Panama City   66  50  69  65  72 /   0   0  30  90  80
Dothan        67  43  67  60  73 /   0   0  20  90  80
Albany        66  41  67  60  72 /   0   0  10  90  90
Valdosta      66  45  70  62  73 /   0  10  10  90  90
Cross City    70  46  75  65  74 /   0  10  20  90  80
Apalachicola  68  51  69  66  73 /   0   0  30  90  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 210916
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure will begin to move off the Atlantic coast
with easterly surface winds developing. It will remain dry today
with mostly sunny skies expected and afternoon highs just a couple
of degrees below average in the mid 60s to near 70 across the
area.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The catalyst for our changes in the weather along the Gulf coast
in the short term period is a potent mid-upper level shortwave
trough evident in early morning water vapor loops over southern
California. Model analyses indicate the dynamic tropopause (PV1.5)
is down around 500mb associated with the PV anomaly, and there was
even a few CG lightning strikes noted near the San Francisco Bay
area. All of these are indicators of a strong wave, and models are
in good agreement with digging it ESE to central Texas by Saturday
afternoon. The consensus then has the wave ejecting ENE with a
negative tilt into the Deep South on Sunday.

The strength of the ejecting shortwave (500mb height anomalies as
low as 2 to 2.5 std deviations below normal LA-AL) will lead to a
strengthening low-mid level wind field on Sunday, with 850-700mb
winds above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Those
increasing wind fields will lead to strong northward moisture
flux. When combined with overall strong QG forcing and above
normal precipitable water values (+2 std deviations), the rain
chances are quite high from Saturday Night into Sunday.

It appears as though an area of rain, and perhaps embedded
elevated thunderstorms, will take shape over the northern Gulf on
Saturday Night in the low-level WAA / isentropic ascent regime
north of a surface warm front. Model forecast soundings indicate
very little instability with a moist adiabatic profile through
much of the troposphere and a shallow inversion near the surface.
This should limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
initially, but moderate to occasionally heavy rain appears likely.
As the surface warm front surges north on Sunday morning in
response to strong surface pressure falls from the Ozarks into the
Deep South, our forecast area should enter the warm sector. Most
model guidance builds MLCAPE over 500 j/kg over at least part of
the area (some close to 1000 j/kg) coincident with about 50-60
knots of deep layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-1km shear. This is
a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, and a second
round of convection is expected to develop. The latest SPC Day 3
Convective Outlook places a Slight Risk across our entire area.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Most models agree that a lagging mid-upper level trough axis over
the Plains will keep at least moderate QG forcing in place over
our forecast area through Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances were
maintained in the forecast through that time, although we removed
the mention of thunder as instability should be lower by that
time. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
before slow moderation toward the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with ENE winds just under 10 knots developing
during the mid-morning hours.

&&

.Marine...

We have issued a Small Craft Advisory, except for the far eastern
nearshore legs, valid through the weekend. Winds should gradually
increase today and could hit 20 knots offshore by this afternoon.
For that reason the advisory was started at 18Z. Easterly winds of
20-25 knots will persist through Saturday Night before veering to
the south on Sunday. It will be around that time of the wind shift
that winds should finally begin to increase in the far eastern
legs. So SCEC headlines and then an advisory are likely at some
point for those areas. Model wind gust guidance indicates some
gusts to near gale force will be possible over the coastal waters
from late Saturday Night into Sunday, but as of right now it seems
too limited in scope to warrant any gale headlines.

Related to the increasingly strong onshore flow on Sunday, the
current forecast also calls for surf heights at area beaches to
peak in the 6-7 foot range which would warrant a High Surf
Advisory. The extratropical surge guidance, based on the GFS
model, does indicate an increase in water levels in Apalachee Bay
on Sunday morning to action stage (just shy of flood levels).
However, (1) the GFS model may be overestimating surface winds at
that time -AND- (2) any surge appears likely to happen after high
tide which would reduce the possible water levels. This will be
monitored as the event approaches as specific timing and wind
speeds will make a big difference.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will gradually increase starting today with
widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday night through
Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Moderate to heavy rainfall looks likely from Saturday Night into
Sunday, with some rain possibly persisting into Monday and
Tuesday. Rainfall totals from Saturday into early next week look
to be mainly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches, on average. This should
not be sufficient to create widespread flooding given current low
flows on area rivers. Still, some minor flooding on a few of the
rivers cannot be ruled out if a more concentrated area of heavier
rainfall were to fall in a large part of a drainage basin. In
urbanized areas, minor flooding problems will also be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  44  70  63  73 /   0   0  20  90  90
Panama City   66  50  69  65  72 /   0   0  30  90  80
Dothan        67  43  67  60  73 /   0   0  20  90  80
Albany        66  41  67  60  72 /   0   0  10  90  90
Valdosta      66  45  70  62  73 /   0  10  10  90  90
Cross City    70  46  75  65  74 /   0  10  20  90  80
Apalachicola  68  51  69  66  73 /   0   0  30  90  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for Coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to Destin
     FL out 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 210916
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure will begin to move off the Atlantic coast
with easterly surface winds developing. It will remain dry today
with mostly sunny skies expected and afternoon highs just a couple
of degrees below average in the mid 60s to near 70 across the
area.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The catalyst for our changes in the weather along the Gulf coast
in the short term period is a potent mid-upper level shortwave
trough evident in early morning water vapor loops over southern
California. Model analyses indicate the dynamic tropopause (PV1.5)
is down around 500mb associated with the PV anomaly, and there was
even a few CG lightning strikes noted near the San Francisco Bay
area. All of these are indicators of a strong wave, and models are
in good agreement with digging it ESE to central Texas by Saturday
afternoon. The consensus then has the wave ejecting ENE with a
negative tilt into the Deep South on Sunday.

The strength of the ejecting shortwave (500mb height anomalies as
low as 2 to 2.5 std deviations below normal LA-AL) will lead to a
strengthening low-mid level wind field on Sunday, with 850-700mb
winds above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Those
increasing wind fields will lead to strong northward moisture
flux. When combined with overall strong QG forcing and above
normal precipitable water values (+2 std deviations), the rain
chances are quite high from Saturday Night into Sunday.

It appears as though an area of rain, and perhaps embedded
elevated thunderstorms, will take shape over the northern Gulf on
Saturday Night in the low-level WAA / isentropic ascent regime
north of a surface warm front. Model forecast soundings indicate
very little instability with a moist adiabatic profile through
much of the troposphere and a shallow inversion near the surface.
This should limit coverage and intensity of thunderstorms
initially, but moderate to occasionally heavy rain appears likely.
As the surface warm front surges north on Sunday morning in
response to strong surface pressure falls from the Ozarks into the
Deep South, our forecast area should enter the warm sector. Most
model guidance builds MLCAPE over 500 j/kg over at least part of
the area (some close to 1000 j/kg) coincident with about 50-60
knots of deep layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-1km shear. This is
a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, and a second
round of convection is expected to develop. The latest SPC Day 3
Convective Outlook places a Slight Risk across our entire area.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Most models agree that a lagging mid-upper level trough axis over
the Plains will keep at least moderate QG forcing in place over
our forecast area through Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances were
maintained in the forecast through that time, although we removed
the mention of thunder as instability should be lower by that
time. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday
before slow moderation toward the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with ENE winds just under 10 knots developing
during the mid-morning hours.

&&

.Marine...

We have issued a Small Craft Advisory, except for the far eastern
nearshore legs, valid through the weekend. Winds should gradually
increase today and could hit 20 knots offshore by this afternoon.
For that reason the advisory was started at 18Z. Easterly winds of
20-25 knots will persist through Saturday Night before veering to
the south on Sunday. It will be around that time of the wind shift
that winds should finally begin to increase in the far eastern
legs. So SCEC headlines and then an advisory are likely at some
point for those areas. Model wind gust guidance indicates some
gusts to near gale force will be possible over the coastal waters
from late Saturday Night into Sunday, but as of right now it seems
too limited in scope to warrant any gale headlines.

Related to the increasingly strong onshore flow on Sunday, the
current forecast also calls for surf heights at area beaches to
peak in the 6-7 foot range which would warrant a High Surf
Advisory. The extratropical surge guidance, based on the GFS
model, does indicate an increase in water levels in Apalachee Bay
on Sunday morning to action stage (just shy of flood levels).
However, (1) the GFS model may be overestimating surface winds at
that time -AND- (2) any surge appears likely to happen after high
tide which would reduce the possible water levels. This will be
monitored as the event approaches as specific timing and wind
speeds will make a big difference.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will gradually increase starting today with
widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday night through
Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Moderate to heavy rainfall looks likely from Saturday Night into
Sunday, with some rain possibly persisting into Monday and
Tuesday. Rainfall totals from Saturday into early next week look
to be mainly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches, on average. This should
not be sufficient to create widespread flooding given current low
flows on area rivers. Still, some minor flooding on a few of the
rivers cannot be ruled out if a more concentrated area of heavier
rainfall were to fall in a large part of a drainage basin. In
urbanized areas, minor flooding problems will also be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  44  70  63  73 /   0   0  20  90  90
Panama City   66  50  69  65  72 /   0   0  30  90  80
Dothan        67  43  67  60  73 /   0   0  20  90  80
Albany        66  41  67  60  72 /   0   0  10  90  90
Valdosta      66  45  70  62  73 /   0  10  10  90  90
Cross City    70  46  75  65  74 /   0  10  20  90  80
Apalachicola  68  51  69  66  73 /   0   0  30  90  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for Coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to Destin
     FL out 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 210135
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Heavy rainfall and strong storms possible late Saturday night
into Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered across the Southern US will remain in place
through the night allowing for one last night of good radiational
cooling conditions. Satellite imagery does show the increase of
mainly upper level cloudiness, and this may limit some of the
cooling. Moreover, surface data from 21 UTC show that near surface
moisture levels have increased markedly in the last 24 hours, with
surface dewpoints back into even the lower 40s for portions of the
Florida Panhandle. The driest airmass though still remains over
the Florida Big Bend, thus with the very favorable radiational
cooling conditions, will indicate one last night of freezing
temperatures - though only 30 to 32 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Elsewhere, we should manage to stay above freezing.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday will be a transitional day as high pressure moves eastward
into the Atlantic and a developing storm system moves eastward
across Texas toward the Western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday this
storm system will be approaching the Western Gulf with a large
area of isentropic ascent ahead of it leading to the development
of widespread cloud cover and rain across the Gulf. The best area
of lift will shift quickly northward as the upper level system
moves into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday night. Expect
rain to increase quickly across the region after sunset with
moderate to heavy rain moving in late Saturday night. On the order
of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, particularly across western areas
looks possible on Saturday night with lower amounts off to the
east. The severe thunderstorm threat doesn`t appear as significant
as it did yesterday. The Euro and GFS both show the warm front
reaching the coast around 12z Sunday - slower than in earlier
runs. Thus, the severe threat Saturday night may be confined to
the coastal waters or perhaps right along the immediate coast. In
the short term period, heavy rainfall is the primary threat.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
At the beginning of the long term period, extensive cloudiness
with widespread rain will be ongoing across the forecast area. The
best synoptic forcing for precipitation will be shifting north of
the area after about 18z on Sunday. There is some concern that a
squall line may move through the region once the warm front
retreats far enough northward, though the 12z runs this afternoon
have difficulty keeping enough forcing back in the warm sector to
generate these storms. Thus, the severe threat and associated
rainfall after 18z seem a little more questionable. And while there
should be limited instability and plenty of shear at this time
range, the necessary forcing may be lacking to support any
organized convective activity.

With the system being fairly progressive, expect conditions to
improve steadily by Sunday night as the main upper level impulse
moves into the Great Lakes. This will leave behind a weak boundary
across the eastern half of the forecast area separating an
increasingly dry airmass across the Mid South and a more tropical
airmass across North Central Florida. As a secondary impulse
rounds the base of a large scale eastern CONUS trough on Monday
night into Tuesday, some of the guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and storms. As a result, will maintain
chance pops into Tuesday evening before finally clearing things
out by Wednesday morning.

Thereafter, most of the models are in good agreement that the Wed-
Thurs timeframe will be dry as high pressure builds across the
southeast. The only notable difference at this point is whether
the airmass will be near normal or much cooler than normal as
suggested by the 12z GFS. For now, have settled on a compromise
solution between the two with slightly below normal temperatures
across the region on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore flow will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
Strong to severe storms are possible across the marine area late
Saturday night and continuing into Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Low level moisture will gradually increase beginning
Friday with widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...A moderate to heavy rainfall event looks to be in the
offering this weekend starting late Saturday night continuing into
Sunday afternoon. Because the system will be progressive enough,
widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. However,
synpotic forcing with this system is rather impressive,
particularly from 03z Sunday through 15z Sunday, thus there is the
potential in this timeframe for 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated heavier totals, primarily across our western areas. Flows
on area rivers are rather low and should be able to handle a
couple of inches of rain without reaching flood stage - though
widespread totals in excess of 3 or 4 inches may result in minor
flooding at a couple of river points in the first half of next
week, especially should this rainfall occur in the upper portions
of the Choctawhatchee and Chipola River basins.

In urbanized areas, minor flooding problems are possible,
particularly on Sunday morning across the Florida Panhandle and
into Southeast Alabama. Future forecasts may be able to better
define impacts as our hi-res output starts to depict this system
Friday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  46  70  64 /   0   0  10  10  90
Panama City   42  67  51  69  64 /   0   0  10  30  90
Dothan        38  67  44  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Albany        35  67  43  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Valdosta      34  66  46  69  61 /   0   0  10  10  90
Cross City    31  69  48  75  66 /   0   0  10  10  80
Apalachicola  40  66  52  68  66 /   0   0  10  30  90

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 210135
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Heavy rainfall and strong storms possible late Saturday night
into Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered across the Southern US will remain in place
through the night allowing for one last night of good radiational
cooling conditions. Satellite imagery does show the increase of
mainly upper level cloudiness, and this may limit some of the
cooling. Moreover, surface data from 21 UTC show that near surface
moisture levels have increased markedly in the last 24 hours, with
surface dewpoints back into even the lower 40s for portions of the
Florida Panhandle. The driest airmass though still remains over
the Florida Big Bend, thus with the very favorable radiational
cooling conditions, will indicate one last night of freezing
temperatures - though only 30 to 32 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Elsewhere, we should manage to stay above freezing.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday will be a transitional day as high pressure moves eastward
into the Atlantic and a developing storm system moves eastward
across Texas toward the Western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday this
storm system will be approaching the Western Gulf with a large
area of isentropic ascent ahead of it leading to the development
of widespread cloud cover and rain across the Gulf. The best area
of lift will shift quickly northward as the upper level system
moves into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday night. Expect
rain to increase quickly across the region after sunset with
moderate to heavy rain moving in late Saturday night. On the order
of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, particularly across western areas
looks possible on Saturday night with lower amounts off to the
east. The severe thunderstorm threat doesn`t appear as significant
as it did yesterday. The Euro and GFS both show the warm front
reaching the coast around 12z Sunday - slower than in earlier
runs. Thus, the severe threat Saturday night may be confined to
the coastal waters or perhaps right along the immediate coast. In
the short term period, heavy rainfall is the primary threat.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
At the beginning of the long term period, extensive cloudiness
with widespread rain will be ongoing across the forecast area. The
best synoptic forcing for precipitation will be shifting north of
the area after about 18z on Sunday. There is some concern that a
squall line may move through the region once the warm front
retreats far enough northward, though the 12z runs this afternoon
have difficulty keeping enough forcing back in the warm sector to
generate these storms. Thus, the severe threat and associated
rainfall after 18z seem a little more questionable. And while there
should be limited instability and plenty of shear at this time
range, the necessary forcing may be lacking to support any
organized convective activity.

With the system being fairly progressive, expect conditions to
improve steadily by Sunday night as the main upper level impulse
moves into the Great Lakes. This will leave behind a weak boundary
across the eastern half of the forecast area separating an
increasingly dry airmass across the Mid South and a more tropical
airmass across North Central Florida. As a secondary impulse
rounds the base of a large scale eastern CONUS trough on Monday
night into Tuesday, some of the guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and storms. As a result, will maintain
chance pops into Tuesday evening before finally clearing things
out by Wednesday morning.

Thereafter, most of the models are in good agreement that the Wed-
Thurs timeframe will be dry as high pressure builds across the
southeast. The only notable difference at this point is whether
the airmass will be near normal or much cooler than normal as
suggested by the 12z GFS. For now, have settled on a compromise
solution between the two with slightly below normal temperatures
across the region on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore flow will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
Strong to severe storms are possible across the marine area late
Saturday night and continuing into Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Low level moisture will gradually increase beginning
Friday with widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...A moderate to heavy rainfall event looks to be in the
offering this weekend starting late Saturday night continuing into
Sunday afternoon. Because the system will be progressive enough,
widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. However,
synpotic forcing with this system is rather impressive,
particularly from 03z Sunday through 15z Sunday, thus there is the
potential in this timeframe for 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated heavier totals, primarily across our western areas. Flows
on area rivers are rather low and should be able to handle a
couple of inches of rain without reaching flood stage - though
widespread totals in excess of 3 or 4 inches may result in minor
flooding at a couple of river points in the first half of next
week, especially should this rainfall occur in the upper portions
of the Choctawhatchee and Chipola River basins.

In urbanized areas, minor flooding problems are possible,
particularly on Sunday morning across the Florida Panhandle and
into Southeast Alabama. Future forecasts may be able to better
define impacts as our hi-res output starts to depict this system
Friday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  46  70  64 /   0   0  10  10  90
Panama City   42  67  51  69  64 /   0   0  10  30  90
Dothan        38  67  44  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Albany        35  67  43  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Valdosta      34  66  46  69  61 /   0   0  10  10  90
Cross City    31  69  48  75  66 /   0   0  10  10  80
Apalachicola  40  66  52  68  66 /   0   0  10  30  90

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 202147
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
447 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Heavy rainfall and strong storms possible late Saturday night
into Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered across the Southern US will remain in place
through the night allowing for one last night of good radiational
cooling conditions. Satellite imagery does show the increase of
mainly upper level cloudiness, and this may limit some of the
cooling. Moreover, surface data from 21 UTC show that near surface
moisture levels have increased markedly in the last 24 hours, with
surface dewpoints back into even the lower 40s for portions of the
Florida Panhandle. The driest airmass though still remains over
the Florida Big Bend, thus with the very favorable radiational
cooling conditions, will indicate one last night of freezing
temperatures - though only 30 to 32 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Elsewhere, we should manage to stay above freezing.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday will be a transitional day as high pressure moves eastward
into the Atlantic and a developing storm system moves eastward
across Texas toward the Western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday this
storm system will be approaching the Western Gulf with a large
area of isentropic ascent ahead of it leading to the development
of widespread cloud cover and rain across the Gulf. The best area
of lift will shift quickly northward as the upper level system
moves into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday night. Expect
rain to increase quickly across the region after sunset with
moderate to heavy rain moving in late Saturday night. On the order
of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, particularly across western areas
looks possible on Saturday night with lower amounts off to the
east. The severe thunderstorm threat doesn`t appear as significant
as it did yesterday. The Euro and GFS both show the warm front
reaching the coast around 12z Sunday - slower than in earlier
runs. Thus, the severe threat Saturday night may be confined to
the coastal waters or perhaps right along the immediate coast. In
the short term period, heavy rainfall is the primary threat.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
At the beginning of the long term period, extensive cloudiness
with widespread rain will be ongoing across the forecast area. The
best synoptic forcing for precipitation will be shifting north of
the area after about 18z on Sunday. There is some concern that a
squall line may move through the region once the warm front
retreats far enough northward, though the 12z runs this afternoon
have difficulty keeping enough forcing back in the warm sector to
generate these storms. Thus, the severe threat and associated
rainfall after 18z seem a little more questionable. And while there
should be limited instability and plenty of shear at this time
range, the necessary forcing may be lacking to support any
organized convective activity.

With the system being fairly progressive, expect conditions to
improve steadily by Sunday night as the main upper level impulse
moves into the Great Lakes. This will leave behind a weak boundary
across the eastern half of the forecast area separating an
increasingly dry airmass across the Mid South and a more tropical
airmass across North Central Florida. As a secondary impulse
rounds the base of a large scale eastern CONUS trough on Monday
night into Tuesday, some of the guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and storms. As a result, will maintain
chance pops into Tuesday evening before finally clearing things
out by Wednesday morning.

Thereafter, most of the models are in good agreement that the Wed-
Thurs timeframe will be dry as high pressure builds across the
southeast. The only notable difference at this point is whether
the airmass will be near normal or much cooler than normal as
suggested by the 12z GFS. For now, have settled on a compromise
solution between the two with slightly below normal temperatures
across the region on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore flow will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
Strong to severe storms are possible across the marine area late
Saturday night and continuing into Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Low level moisture will gradually increase beginning
Friday with widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...A moderate to heavy rainfall event looks to be in the
offering this weekend starting late Saturday night continuing into
Sunday afternoon. Because the system will be progressive enough,
widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. However,
synpotic forcing with this system is rather impressive,
particularly from 03z Sunday through 15z Sunday, thus there is the
potential in this timeframe for 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated heavier totals, primarily across our western areas. Flows
on area rivers are rather low and should be able to handle a
couple of inches of rain without reaching flood stage - though
widespread totals in excess of 3 or 4 inches may result in minor
flooding at a couple of river points in the first half of next
week, especially should this rainfall occur in the upper portions
of the Choctawhatchee and Chipola River basins.

In urbanized areas, minor flooding problems are possible,
particularly on Sunday morning across the Florida Panhandle and
into Southeast Alabama. Future forecasts may be able to better
define impacts as our hi-res output starts to depict this system
Friday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  46  70  64 /   0   0  10  10  90
Panama City   42  67  51  69  64 /   0   0  10  30  90
Dothan        38  67  44  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Albany        35  67  43  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Valdosta      34  66  46  69  61 /   0   0  10  10  90
Cross City    31  69  48  75  66 /   0   0  10  10  80
Apalachicola  40  66  52  68  66 /   0   0  10  30  90

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 202147
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
447 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

...Heavy rainfall and strong storms possible late Saturday night
into Sunday...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered across the Southern US will remain in place
through the night allowing for one last night of good radiational
cooling conditions. Satellite imagery does show the increase of
mainly upper level cloudiness, and this may limit some of the
cooling. Moreover, surface data from 21 UTC show that near surface
moisture levels have increased markedly in the last 24 hours, with
surface dewpoints back into even the lower 40s for portions of the
Florida Panhandle. The driest airmass though still remains over
the Florida Big Bend, thus with the very favorable radiational
cooling conditions, will indicate one last night of freezing
temperatures - though only 30 to 32 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Elsewhere, we should manage to stay above freezing.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday will be a transitional day as high pressure moves eastward
into the Atlantic and a developing storm system moves eastward
across Texas toward the Western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday this
storm system will be approaching the Western Gulf with a large
area of isentropic ascent ahead of it leading to the development
of widespread cloud cover and rain across the Gulf. The best area
of lift will shift quickly northward as the upper level system
moves into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday night. Expect
rain to increase quickly across the region after sunset with
moderate to heavy rain moving in late Saturday night. On the order
of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, particularly across western areas
looks possible on Saturday night with lower amounts off to the
east. The severe thunderstorm threat doesn`t appear as significant
as it did yesterday. The Euro and GFS both show the warm front
reaching the coast around 12z Sunday - slower than in earlier
runs. Thus, the severe threat Saturday night may be confined to
the coastal waters or perhaps right along the immediate coast. In
the short term period, heavy rainfall is the primary threat.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
At the beginning of the long term period, extensive cloudiness
with widespread rain will be ongoing across the forecast area. The
best synoptic forcing for precipitation will be shifting north of
the area after about 18z on Sunday. There is some concern that a
squall line may move through the region once the warm front
retreats far enough northward, though the 12z runs this afternoon
have difficulty keeping enough forcing back in the warm sector to
generate these storms. Thus, the severe threat and associated
rainfall after 18z seem a little more questionable. And while there
should be limited instability and plenty of shear at this time
range, the necessary forcing may be lacking to support any
organized convective activity.

With the system being fairly progressive, expect conditions to
improve steadily by Sunday night as the main upper level impulse
moves into the Great Lakes. This will leave behind a weak boundary
across the eastern half of the forecast area separating an
increasingly dry airmass across the Mid South and a more tropical
airmass across North Central Florida. As a secondary impulse
rounds the base of a large scale eastern CONUS trough on Monday
night into Tuesday, some of the guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and storms. As a result, will maintain
chance pops into Tuesday evening before finally clearing things
out by Wednesday morning.

Thereafter, most of the models are in good agreement that the Wed-
Thurs timeframe will be dry as high pressure builds across the
southeast. The only notable difference at this point is whether
the airmass will be near normal or much cooler than normal as
suggested by the 12z GFS. For now, have settled on a compromise
solution between the two with slightly below normal temperatures
across the region on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore flow will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
Strong to severe storms are possible across the marine area late
Saturday night and continuing into Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Low level moisture will gradually increase beginning
Friday with widespread rain overspreading the region Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...A moderate to heavy rainfall event looks to be in the
offering this weekend starting late Saturday night continuing into
Sunday afternoon. Because the system will be progressive enough,
widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. However,
synpotic forcing with this system is rather impressive,
particularly from 03z Sunday through 15z Sunday, thus there is the
potential in this timeframe for 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated heavier totals, primarily across our western areas. Flows
on area rivers are rather low and should be able to handle a
couple of inches of rain without reaching flood stage - though
widespread totals in excess of 3 or 4 inches may result in minor
flooding at a couple of river points in the first half of next
week, especially should this rainfall occur in the upper portions
of the Choctawhatchee and Chipola River basins.

In urbanized areas, minor flooding problems are possible,
particularly on Sunday morning across the Florida Panhandle and
into Southeast Alabama. Future forecasts may be able to better
define impacts as our hi-res output starts to depict this system
Friday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  46  70  64 /   0   0  10  10  90
Panama City   42  67  51  69  64 /   0   0  10  30  90
Dothan        38  67  44  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Albany        35  67  43  66  59 /   0   0   0  10  90
Valdosta      34  66  46  69  61 /   0   0  10  10  90
Cross City    31  69  48  75  66 /   0   0  10  10  80
Apalachicola  40  66  52  68  66 /   0   0  10  30  90

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 201417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge centered over North FL, and we expect a continuation of fair
weather today. Highs will be a little warmer than yesterday- generally
in the mid 60s (still slightly below average).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] Unrestricted vis & unlimited cigs will
continue through the period, with light N to NE winds (generally less
than 8 KT).

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A gradual warming trend will continue through the short term as
the surface high pressure starts to lift out to the northeast. A
marginal light freeze remains possible tonight across the
typically colder areas of the Florida big bend with mostly clear
skies, light winds, and low dewpoints still in place there. By
Friday, low level moisture will start to increase with easterly
surface flow developing. On Saturday, this trend will continue,
and a strong upper level shortwave will move into Texas.
Increasing moisture and lift ahead of it may allow for a few
showers to develop late in the period over the Florida panhandle,
but the bulk of the heavier rain and storms is expected to hold
off until Saturday night and Sunday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Global models continue to be in reasonable agreement on swinging a
strong, negatively tilted upper level shortwave from the MS
Valley to the Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday with an
associated strong surface low. As this occurs, a warm front will
lift northward from the Gulf, separating cooler and more stable
air to its north from the warmer and more unstable air to the
south. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the most
unstable air will get, but it does appear that it will move inland
enough for some risk of severe weather to develop across the area
from late Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The greatest
risk will probably be closer to the coast where more confidence
exists in an unstable airmass, but we cannot rule out any portion
of the forecast area from the risk yet. Given the strong shear
that will be in place, damaging winds along with isolated
tornadoes would be possible.

As the system occludes over the Great Lakes on Sunday night, a
secondary shortwave will move across the southern U.S and push a
cold front through the area on Monday afternoon. Thus, a chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with
lower chances by Tuesday.


.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the
coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The relative humidity will still be quite low today. This combined
with elevated ERC values for Leon and Wakulla counties will lead
to Red Flag conditions in those two counties only. Also, due to
relatively low mixing heights and light transport winds,
dispersion indices will be low with values as low again today,
generally in the 20s. Moisture levels will increase later in the
week with widespread rain expected over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
The storm system for Saturday night through Monday will have the
potential to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3
inches, with locally heavier amounts, especially if a secondary
impulse generates another batch of heavy rainfall on Monday
afternoon. The heaviest amounts currently appear to be focused
across the Florida panhandle. However, this system still looks
progressive at this time, and given the rather dry conditions that
have prevailed through the fall, flooding does not appear to be
a significant concern outside of the urbanized areas. River levels
are currently very low, with plenty of capacity for runoff.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  32  68  45  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  43  66  50  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        63  37  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        63  34  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  33  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    64  33  69  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  40  66  51  70 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 201417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge centered over North FL, and we expect a continuation of fair
weather today. Highs will be a little warmer than yesterday- generally
in the mid 60s (still slightly below average).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] Unrestricted vis & unlimited cigs will
continue through the period, with light N to NE winds (generally less
than 8 KT).

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A gradual warming trend will continue through the short term as
the surface high pressure starts to lift out to the northeast. A
marginal light freeze remains possible tonight across the
typically colder areas of the Florida big bend with mostly clear
skies, light winds, and low dewpoints still in place there. By
Friday, low level moisture will start to increase with easterly
surface flow developing. On Saturday, this trend will continue,
and a strong upper level shortwave will move into Texas.
Increasing moisture and lift ahead of it may allow for a few
showers to develop late in the period over the Florida panhandle,
but the bulk of the heavier rain and storms is expected to hold
off until Saturday night and Sunday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Global models continue to be in reasonable agreement on swinging a
strong, negatively tilted upper level shortwave from the MS
Valley to the Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday with an
associated strong surface low. As this occurs, a warm front will
lift northward from the Gulf, separating cooler and more stable
air to its north from the warmer and more unstable air to the
south. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the most
unstable air will get, but it does appear that it will move inland
enough for some risk of severe weather to develop across the area
from late Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The greatest
risk will probably be closer to the coast where more confidence
exists in an unstable airmass, but we cannot rule out any portion
of the forecast area from the risk yet. Given the strong shear
that will be in place, damaging winds along with isolated
tornadoes would be possible.

As the system occludes over the Great Lakes on Sunday night, a
secondary shortwave will move across the southern U.S and push a
cold front through the area on Monday afternoon. Thus, a chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with
lower chances by Tuesday.


.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the
coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The relative humidity will still be quite low today. This combined
with elevated ERC values for Leon and Wakulla counties will lead
to Red Flag conditions in those two counties only. Also, due to
relatively low mixing heights and light transport winds,
dispersion indices will be low with values as low again today,
generally in the 20s. Moisture levels will increase later in the
week with widespread rain expected over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
The storm system for Saturday night through Monday will have the
potential to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3
inches, with locally heavier amounts, especially if a secondary
impulse generates another batch of heavy rainfall on Monday
afternoon. The heaviest amounts currently appear to be focused
across the Florida panhandle. However, this system still looks
progressive at this time, and given the rather dry conditions that
have prevailed through the fall, flooding does not appear to be
a significant concern outside of the urbanized areas. River levels
are currently very low, with plenty of capacity for runoff.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  32  68  45  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  43  66  50  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        63  37  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        63  34  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  33  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    64  33  69  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  40  66  51  70 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD/GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 201417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge centered over North FL, and we expect a continuation of fair
weather today. Highs will be a little warmer than yesterday- generally
in the mid 60s (still slightly below average).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] Unrestricted vis & unlimited cigs will
continue through the period, with light N to NE winds (generally less
than 8 KT).

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A gradual warming trend will continue through the short term as
the surface high pressure starts to lift out to the northeast. A
marginal light freeze remains possible tonight across the
typically colder areas of the Florida big bend with mostly clear
skies, light winds, and low dewpoints still in place there. By
Friday, low level moisture will start to increase with easterly
surface flow developing. On Saturday, this trend will continue,
and a strong upper level shortwave will move into Texas.
Increasing moisture and lift ahead of it may allow for a few
showers to develop late in the period over the Florida panhandle,
but the bulk of the heavier rain and storms is expected to hold
off until Saturday night and Sunday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Global models continue to be in reasonable agreement on swinging a
strong, negatively tilted upper level shortwave from the MS
Valley to the Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday with an
associated strong surface low. As this occurs, a warm front will
lift northward from the Gulf, separating cooler and more stable
air to its north from the warmer and more unstable air to the
south. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the most
unstable air will get, but it does appear that it will move inland
enough for some risk of severe weather to develop across the area
from late Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The greatest
risk will probably be closer to the coast where more confidence
exists in an unstable airmass, but we cannot rule out any portion
of the forecast area from the risk yet. Given the strong shear
that will be in place, damaging winds along with isolated
tornadoes would be possible.

As the system occludes over the Great Lakes on Sunday night, a
secondary shortwave will move across the southern U.S and push a
cold front through the area on Monday afternoon. Thus, a chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with
lower chances by Tuesday.


.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the
coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The relative humidity will still be quite low today. This combined
with elevated ERC values for Leon and Wakulla counties will lead
to Red Flag conditions in those two counties only. Also, due to
relatively low mixing heights and light transport winds,
dispersion indices will be low with values as low again today,
generally in the 20s. Moisture levels will increase later in the
week with widespread rain expected over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
The storm system for Saturday night through Monday will have the
potential to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3
inches, with locally heavier amounts, especially if a secondary
impulse generates another batch of heavy rainfall on Monday
afternoon. The heaviest amounts currently appear to be focused
across the Florida panhandle. However, this system still looks
progressive at this time, and given the rather dry conditions that
have prevailed through the fall, flooding does not appear to be
a significant concern outside of the urbanized areas. River levels
are currently very low, with plenty of capacity for runoff.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  32  68  45  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  43  66  50  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        63  37  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        63  34  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  33  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    64  33  69  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  40  66  51  70 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 201417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EST regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge centered over North FL, and we expect a continuation of fair
weather today. Highs will be a little warmer than yesterday- generally
in the mid 60s (still slightly below average).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] Unrestricted vis & unlimited cigs will
continue through the period, with light N to NE winds (generally less
than 8 KT).

&&

.Prev Discussion [429 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A gradual warming trend will continue through the short term as
the surface high pressure starts to lift out to the northeast. A
marginal light freeze remains possible tonight across the
typically colder areas of the Florida big bend with mostly clear
skies, light winds, and low dewpoints still in place there. By
Friday, low level moisture will start to increase with easterly
surface flow developing. On Saturday, this trend will continue,
and a strong upper level shortwave will move into Texas.
Increasing moisture and lift ahead of it may allow for a few
showers to develop late in the period over the Florida panhandle,
but the bulk of the heavier rain and storms is expected to hold
off until Saturday night and Sunday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Global models continue to be in reasonable agreement on swinging a
strong, negatively tilted upper level shortwave from the MS
Valley to the Great Lakes region Saturday through Sunday with an
associated strong surface low. As this occurs, a warm front will
lift northward from the Gulf, separating cooler and more stable
air to its north from the warmer and more unstable air to the
south. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north the most
unstable air will get, but it does appear that it will move inland
enough for some risk of severe weather to develop across the area
from late Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The greatest
risk will probably be closer to the coast where more confidence
exists in an unstable airmass, but we cannot rule out any portion
of the forecast area from the risk yet. Given the strong shear
that will be in place, damaging winds along with isolated
tornadoes would be possible.

As the system occludes over the Great Lakes on Sunday night, a
secondary shortwave will move across the southern U.S and push a
cold front through the area on Monday afternoon. Thus, a chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with
lower chances by Tuesday.


.Marine...
Light to moderate offshore will remain in place through this
evening. Thereafter, the gradient will sharply tighten between a
high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure system
to the west. This will result in a prolonged period of advisory
conditions starting on Friday night and continuing through Sunday.
In fact, a strong to severe squall line may sweep across the
coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday.


.Fire Weather...
The relative humidity will still be quite low today. This combined
with elevated ERC values for Leon and Wakulla counties will lead
to Red Flag conditions in those two counties only. Also, due to
relatively low mixing heights and light transport winds,
dispersion indices will be low with values as low again today,
generally in the 20s. Moisture levels will increase later in the
week with widespread rain expected over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
The storm system for Saturday night through Monday will have the
potential to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3
inches, with locally heavier amounts, especially if a secondary
impulse generates another batch of heavy rainfall on Monday
afternoon. The heaviest amounts currently appear to be focused
across the Florida panhandle. However, this system still looks
progressive at this time, and given the rather dry conditions that
have prevailed through the fall, flooding does not appear to be
a significant concern outside of the urbanized areas. River levels
are currently very low, with plenty of capacity for runoff.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  32  68  45  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   64  43  66  50  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        63  37  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        63  34  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  33  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    64  33  69  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  40  66  51  70 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...DVD/GODSEY








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