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000
FXUS62 KTAE 011008
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Monday] Patchy fog across the area is expected to
lift between 13-14z with the greatest impact around ECP where
LIFR conditions have been observed. VFR will return after any
remaining fog lifts this morning. Later this afternoon, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible around DHN and ABY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  66  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  20  60
Panama City   81  70  80  71  79 /  10  10  20  20  60
Dothan        86  66  85  67  80 /  40  20  40  30  50
Albany        87  67  87  67  82 /  40  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      89  67  90  68  85 /  20  20  40  30  60
Cross City    87  67  87  69  85 /  10  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  80 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

[Through 06z Monday] Patchy fog is again possible through around 13-
14z with the greatest chance around VLD. Conditions may vary between
MVFR and LIFR in the fog. VFR will return to any areas that see fog
by the mid-morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  66  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  20  60
Panama City   81  70  80  71  79 /  10  10  20  20  60
Dothan        86  66  85  67  80 /  40  20  40  30  50
Albany        87  67  87  67  82 /  40  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      89  67  90  68  85 /  20  20  40  30  60
Cross City    87  67  87  69  85 /  10  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  80 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010118
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
918 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection this afternoon and evening was focused across the far
eastern portion of our area along I-75 in GA. Much of this
activity has moved off to the ENE or steadily weakened, so expect
this trend to continue over the next couple of hours. Convective
line east of Pensacola has also continued to weaken. This line
should be approaching our western CWA border around 04z, and most
of the available hi-res guidance has the line weakening
considerably before then. Given the continued weakening trend,
will only keep a slight chance PoP in the evening forecast.

Expect fog to develop once again across the region tonight, though
this may be limited somewhat by the extensive cirrus canopy
streaming overhead. Should be another warm and humid night across
the region with lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A rather flat upper-level ridge will continue over much of the
Southeast through Monday. Heights will begin to lower Monday night
with an approaching trough and surface cold front. The ensemble of
CAMs, which has performed extremely well thus far in this summerlike
synoptic pattern, has similar PoPs for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
It has the highest PoPs (around 40%) across portions of south AL and
south central GA, where the thermodynamic profiles are more
favorable for deep moist convection. Although there may be some weak
Q-G forcing, most of the forcing will be diurnally driven, coming from
the sea breeze fronts. Unusually warm and humid conditions will
persist.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are in good agreement in developing an upper-level
long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will
move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing an end to the
rain from west to east during the day. Fair weather is expected for
the remainder of the week as our region becomes situated beneath
dry, sinking, northwest flow on the west flank of the quasi-
stationary upper trough. Cooler temperatures, that is, a return to
average, will begin on Thursday, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. The humidity will also be significantly reduced.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...
Afternoon convection across srn GA is moving ENE away from VLD, so
expect VFR conditions to now prevail through the remainder of the
evening. Line of showers west of PNS should weaken with time, and
is not expected to affect the DHN/ECP terminals. Overnight, expect
fog to develop once again, though this may be limited somewhat by
the extensive cirrus canopy already in place. For now, used a
blend of model guidance an persistence, which yielded LIFR
conditions at ECP/TLH/VLD with MVFR conditions elsewhere, mainly
between 08z and 14z Sun. After 14z, VFR conditions will prevail.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system will remain centered over the western
Atlantic, providing relatively light onshore winds across the
coastal waters through Monday. Despite the rather light winds,
seas will be in the 2 to 4 feet range as longer-period swells
develop in the long southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  88  66  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   71  81  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        68  87  66  85  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
Albany        68  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  30  40
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  40  30
Cross City    68  87  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  71  81  69  81  70 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 302357
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
757 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...
Afternoon convection across srn GA is moving ENE away from VLD, so
expect VFR conditions to now prevail through the remainder of the
evening. Line of showers west of PNS should weaken with time, and
is not expected to affect the DHN/ECP terminals. Overnight, expect
fog to develop once again, though this may be limited somewhat by
the extensive cirrus canopy already in place. For now, used a
blend of model guidance an persistence, which yielded LIFR
conditions at ECP/TLH/VLD with MVFR conditions elsewhere, mainly
between 08z and 14z Sun. After 14z, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridge axis shifts eastward tonight over the Atlantic and
northeast CONUS while a cold front across the plains this afternoon
slowly shifts eastward into the MS valley. This afternoon, showers
and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern portion of the CWA
where dew points have climbed into the 70s. Hi-res models have
pegged this area with the higher PoPs and with this forecast package
have increased and expanded the PoPs for this afternoon slightly.

A much broader area of showers and thunderstorms was located across
Louisiana this afternoon. As these storms move eastward, guidance is
consistent with the storms weakening as they reach the western CWA
border. Although storms will be on a weakening trend, some of these
decaying storms have the chance to reach the far western area so
have also increased PoPs across that area for tonight.

Another warm night is expected with above normal low temperatures
for Sunday morning, around 10-15 degrees above normal.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A rather flat upper-level ridge will continue over much of the
Southeast through Monday. Heights will begin to lower Monday night
with an approaching trough and surface cold front. The ensemble of
CAMs, which has performed extremely well thus far in this summerlike
synoptic pattern, has similar PoPs for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
It has the highest PoPs (around 40%) across portions of south AL and
south central GA, where the thermodynamic profiles are more
favorable for deep moist convection. Although there may be some weak
Q-G forcing, most of the forcing will be diurnally driven, coming from
the sea breeze fronts. Unusually warm and humid conditions will
persist.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are in good agreement in developing an upper-level
long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will
move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing an end to the
rain from west to east during the day. Fair weather is expected for
the remainder of the week as our region becomes situated beneath
dry, sinking, northwest flow on the west flank of the quasi-
stationary upper trough. Cooler temperatures, that is, a return to
average, will begin on Thursday, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. The humidity will also be significantly reduced.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system will remain centered over the western
Atlantic, providing relatively light onshore winds across the
coastal waters through Monday. Despite the rather light winds,
seas will be in the 2 to 4 feet range as longer-period swells
develop in the long southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  88  66  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   71  81  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        68  87  66  85  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
Albany        68  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  30  40
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  40  30
Cross City    68  87  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  71  81  69  81  70 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301932
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridge axis shifts eastward tonight over the Atlantic and
northeast CONUS while a cold front across the plains this afternoon
slowly shifts eastward into the MS valley. This afternoon, showers
and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern portion of the CWA
where dew points have climbed into the 70s. Hi-res models have
pegged this area with the higher PoPs and with this forecast package
have increased and expanded the PoPs for this afternoon slightly.

A much broader area of showers and thunderstorms was located across
Louisiana this afternoon. As these storms move eastward, guidance is
consistent with the storms weakening as they reach the western CWA
border. Although storms will be on a weakening trend, some of these
decaying storms have the chance to reach the far western area so
have also increased PoPs across that area for tonight.

Another warm night is expected with above normal low temperatures
for Sunday morning, around 10-15 degrees above normal.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A rather flat upper-level ridge will continue over much of the
Southeast through Monday. Heights will begin to lower Monday night
with an approaching trough and surface cold front. The ensemble of
CAMs, which has performed extremely well thus far in this summerlike
synoptic pattern, has similar PoPs for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
It has the highest PoPs (around 40%) across portions of south AL and
south central GA, where the thermodynamic profiles are more
favorable for deep moist convection. Although there may be some weak
Q-G forcing, most of the forcing will be diurnally driven, coming from
the sea breeze fronts. Unusually warm and humid conditions will
persist.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are in good agreement in developing an upper-level
long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will
move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing an end to the
rain from west to east during the day. Fair weather is expected for
the remainder of the week as our region becomes situated beneath
dry, sinking, northwest flow on the west flank of the quasi-
stationary upper trough. Cooler temperatures, that is, a return to
average, will begin on Thursday, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. The humidity will also be significantly reduced.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Scattered clouds around 4kft are building across the area this
afternoon and in addition, the high clouds will increase throughout
the day. Isolated TSRA is possible this afternoon with the greatest
chance at VLD. Storms west of the area that push eastward tonight
should diminish as they get to the western sites and thus no mention
of TSRA at ECP or DHN in the 18z TAFs. Fog is expected again
tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure system will remain centered over the western
Atlantic, providing relatively light onshore winds across the
coastal waters through Monday. Despite the rather light winds,
seas will be in the 2 to 4 feet range as longer-period swells
develop in the long southerly fetch.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  88  66  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   71  81  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        68  87  66  85  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
Albany        68  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  30  40
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  40  30
Cross City    68  87  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  71  81  69  81  70 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301721
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
121 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Scattered clouds around 4kft are building across the area this
afternoon and in addition, the high clouds will increase
throughout the day. Isolated TSRA is possible this afternoon with
the greatest chance at VLD. Storms west of the area that push
eastward tonight should diminish as they get to the western sites
and thus no mention of TSRA at ECP or DHN in the 18z TAFs. Fog is
expected again tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1016 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.


.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /  10   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  40  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301416
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Clouds continue to persist across parts of the CWA this morning,
mainly closer to the coast. Expect clouds to increase across the
remainder of the area throughout the day. Hi-res models are
consistent with pegging the highest PoPs across the far eastern
portion of the area, thus the only change to the PoP forecast was
to bring the slight chance a little further westward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [634 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Sunday] A variety of conditions will exist through
the mid-morning hours depending on the location, ranging from
VFR in some places to VLIFR in others. The ECP terminal is likely
to see the worst conditions continuing with VLIFR through around
13-14z expected. A return to VFR areawide is expected by around
14-15z. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection is possible
around VLD.


.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /  10   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  40  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301034
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

The latest ensemble of CAM guidance as well as the HRRR show a
bit better coverage of convection this afternoon across our
eastern counties of south-central Georgia and the eastern big bend
in association with some surface convergence in that area. Thus,
the PoPs were increased into the 30-40 percent range there
compared to 20-30 percent from earlier. No other changes were made
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Sunday] A variety of conditions will exist through
the mid-morning hours depending on the location, ranging from
VFR in some places to VLIFR in others. The ECP terminal is likely
to see the worst conditions continuing with VLIFR through around
13-14z expected. A return to VFR areawide is expected by around
14-15z. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection is possible
around VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.


.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /   0   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  40  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300746
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
346 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION

[Through 06Z Sunday] A warm and humid airmass remains in place with
some scattered areas of fog and low ceilings. Expect to see MVFR/IFR
conditions all terminals overnight with the greatest amount of fog
at the ECP terminal with LIFR conditions there. Restrictions will
end quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions by 14z.

&&

.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /   0   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  30
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  30  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300746
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
346 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large upper level trough over the western
half of the country with ridging off the southeast coast. Surface
low pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a squall
line stretching from east Texas to southwest Arkansas. Closer to
home, a moist boundary layer coupled with light winds and mostly
clear skies has led to scattered areas of fog this morning,
particularly across the Florida panhandle. This fog is expected by
the mid-morning hours with another warm day expected with highs in
the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. Convective activity is
expected to be mostly minimal today, but some of the CAMs do show
some scattered convection across the eastern areas this afternoon in
association with some surface convergence. The ensemble of CAMs did
an excellent job yesterday, and the official forecast followed it
closely today, resulting in 20-30 percent chances of thunderstorms
near and east of a line from Albany to Cross City this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will flatten to zonal flow on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach Sunday and stall over or just north of
of our CWA by late Monday. Best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be in close proximity of the frontal boundary.
Thus, PoPs both days will be tapered chance (30-40%) north to
slight chance (20%) south. Above seasonal temps will continue with
highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A deep trough will develop east of the Plains as an upper low
drops southward from Ontario Tuesday into the mid-Atlantic states
Friday through Saturday. This will push the surface front well to
our south and east by late Wednesday and send a secondary dry cold
front through the local region Thursday night/early Friday. PoPs
will be 30-40% Tuesday and tapered 20-40% northwest to southeast
Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near or just below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION

[Through 06Z Sunday] A warm and humid airmass remains in place with
some scattered areas of fog and low ceilings. Expect to see MVFR/IFR
conditions all terminals overnight with the greatest amount of fog
at the ECP terminal with LIFR conditions there. Restrictions will
end quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions by 14z.

&&

.MARINE...

Light southerly winds will continue across the local waters
through Monday. Despite the light winds, seas will increase to
the 2 to 4 feet range Sunday as longer period swell develops in
the long southerly fetch. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
pushes through the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  69  90  66  90 /   0   0  20  20  30
Panama City   81  72  82  69  83 /   0  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  68  87  67  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Albany        90  68  89  68  89 /  20  20  40  30  30
Valdosta      91  69  90  68  91 /  30  20  30  30  30
Cross City    90  68  89  66  89 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  82  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300114
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
914 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon convection along the sea breeze has diminished, but the
sea breeze boundary continues to move to the north across South
Alabama/Georgia. Outflow from a MCS across Central Alabama
continues to progress to the southeast (nearing Montgomery at 01z),
and over the last 30 minutes or so, a few isolated storms have
developed just north of our forecast area near Troy AL. Available
CAM guidance that depicts the upstream MCS suggests that the
activity should diminish by 06z - and this is likely due to
decreasing instability along the path of the MCS. That being said,
it wouldn`t be surprising for an isolated storm or two across
portions of Southwestern Georgia or Southeast Alabama through
about 06z. Thereafter, expect skies to be mostly clear, with
areas of fog developing before sunrise. As far as fog potential,
most of the guidance is suggesting the Florida Panhandle will once
again be the favored area for development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [729 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A fairly sharp, upper level ridge over the Southeast Saturday
morning will flatten somewhat later this weekend, as multiple short
wave troughs translate east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night. Moisture, which is already plentiful in the PBL, will
increase somewhat in depth on Sunday, accompanied by weak Q-G
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front. This will result in a
modest increase in rain chances (30-40% PoPs), especially in south
GA and AL where the more favorable moisture profile will be.
Given the expectation of weak 0-6km bulk shear values and modest
MLCAPE, the chance of organized severe storms appears minimal. It
will be hot with summerlike temperatures and humidity, with highs
around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

While the global models differ on some of the details, they do agree
on a significant upper level pattern change. A deep upper-level
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS later this week. The GFS
is faster with the development of this trough than the ECMWF, and
that solution would bring an end to our rain chances early
Wednesday while the ECMWF clearing would be late Wednesday. As we
usually do, we used an average of the two solutions for this
forecast package. PoPs will be 30 to 40% Tuesday and Wednesday
(mainly afternoon and evening storms), followed by no PoPs
beginning Thursday. Warm and humid conditions will continue
through mid week, followed by a modest cooling and drying trend
beginning Thursday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Warm and humid airmass
in place with mostly clear skies tonight, so expect to see
MVFR/IFR conditions all terminals overnight. Guidance suggests
greatest fog potential is at the ECP terminal, so LIFR conditions
were included there before sunrise. Restrictions will end quickly
after sunrise, with VFR conditions by 14z.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system centered off the Southeast coast will provide
light south winds across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Despite the light winds, seas will actually increase to the 3 to 4
feet range by Sunday as longer-period swell develops in the long
southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  90  68  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   68  81  71  80  71 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        67  87  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  30  20
Albany        67  89  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  90  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  30  20
Cross City    66  89  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  68  81  70  80  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300114
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
914 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon convection along the sea breeze has diminished, but the
sea breeze boundary continues to move to the north across South
Alabama/Georgia. Outflow from a MCS across Central Alabama
continues to progress to the southeast (nearing Montgomery at 01z),
and over the last 30 minutes or so, a few isolated storms have
developed just north of our forecast area near Troy AL. Available
CAM guidance that depicts the upstream MCS suggests that the
activity should diminish by 06z - and this is likely due to
decreasing instability along the path of the MCS. That being said,
it wouldn`t be surprising for an isolated storm or two across
portions of Southwestern Georgia or Southeast Alabama through
about 06z. Thereafter, expect skies to be mostly clear, with
areas of fog developing before sunrise. As far as fog potential,
most of the guidance is suggesting the Florida Panhandle will once
again be the favored area for development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [729 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A fairly sharp, upper level ridge over the Southeast Saturday
morning will flatten somewhat later this weekend, as multiple short
wave troughs translate east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night. Moisture, which is already plentiful in the PBL, will
increase somewhat in depth on Sunday, accompanied by weak Q-G
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front. This will result in a
modest increase in rain chances (30-40% PoPs), especially in south
GA and AL where the more favorable moisture profile will be.
Given the expectation of weak 0-6km bulk shear values and modest
MLCAPE, the chance of organized severe storms appears minimal. It
will be hot with summerlike temperatures and humidity, with highs
around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

While the global models differ on some of the details, they do agree
on a significant upper level pattern change. A deep upper-level
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS later this week. The GFS
is faster with the development of this trough than the ECMWF, and
that solution would bring an end to our rain chances early
Wednesday while the ECMWF clearing would be late Wednesday. As we
usually do, we used an average of the two solutions for this
forecast package. PoPs will be 30 to 40% Tuesday and Wednesday
(mainly afternoon and evening storms), followed by no PoPs
beginning Thursday. Warm and humid conditions will continue
through mid week, followed by a modest cooling and drying trend
beginning Thursday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Warm and humid airmass
in place with mostly clear skies tonight, so expect to see
MVFR/IFR conditions all terminals overnight. Guidance suggests
greatest fog potential is at the ECP terminal, so LIFR conditions
were included there before sunrise. Restrictions will end quickly
after sunrise, with VFR conditions by 14z.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system centered off the Southeast coast will provide
light south winds across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Despite the light winds, seas will actually increase to the 3 to 4
feet range by Sunday as longer-period swell develops in the long
southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  90  68  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   68  81  71  80  71 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        67  87  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  30  20
Albany        67  89  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  90  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  30  20
Cross City    66  89  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  68  81  70  80  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 292329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
729 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Warm and humid airmass
in place with mostly clear skies tonight, so expect to see
MVFR/IFR conditions all terminals overnight. Guidance suggests
greatest fog potential is at the ECP terminal, so LIFR conditions
were included there before sunrise. Restrictions will end quickly
after sunrise, with VFR conditions by 14z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [422 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Mid level ridging will continue across the area tonight and the
center of the 850mb ridge slides sightly eastward. A few showers and
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon with a few showers
already showing up on radar. These may linger into the early
evening. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows
only dropping into the upper 60s (normal is the mid 50s at TLH).
These values will still remain below the record high minimum
temperature which is 73 at TLH.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A fairly sharp, upper level ridge over the Southeast Saturday
morning will flatten somewhat later this weekend, as multiple short
wave troughs translate east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night. Moisture, which is already plentiful in the PBL, will
increase somewhat in depth on Sunday, accompanied by weak Q-G
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front. This will result in a
modest increase in rain chances (30-40% PoPs), especially in south
GA and AL where the more favorable moisture profile will be.
Given the expectation of weak 0-6km bulk shear values and modest
MLCAPE, the chance of organized severe storms appears minimal. It
will be hot with summerlike temperatures and humidity, with highs
around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

While the global models differ on some of the details, they do agree
on a significant upper level pattern change. A deep upper-level
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS later this week. The GFS
is faster with the development of this trough than the ECMWF, and
that solution would bring an end to our rain chances early
Wednesday while the ECMWF clearing would be late Wednesday. As we
usually do, we used an average of the two solutions for this
forecast package. PoPs will be 30 to 40% Tuesday and Wednesday
(mainly afternoon and evening storms), followed by no PoPs
beginning Thursday. Warm and humid conditions will continue
through mid week, followed by a modest cooling and drying trend
beginning Thursday.


.MARINE...

A high pressure system centered off the Southeast coast will provide
light south winds across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Despite the light winds, seas will actually increase to the 3 to 4
feet range by Sunday as longer-period swell develops in the long
southerly fetch.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  90  68  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   68  81  71  80  71 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        67  87  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  30  20
Albany        67  89  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  90  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  30  20
Cross City    66  89  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  68  81  70  80  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 292022
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
422 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Mid level ridging will continue across the area tonight and the
center of the 850mb ridge slides sightly eastward. A few showers and
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon with a few showers
already showing up on radar. These may linger into the early
evening. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows
only dropping into the upper 60s (normal is the mid 50s at TLH).
These values will still remain below the record high minimum
temperature which is 73 at TLH.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A fairly sharp, upper level ridge over the Southeast Saturday
morning will flatten somewhat later this weekend, as multiple short
wave troughs translate east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Sunday night. Moisture, which is already plentiful in the PBL, will
increase somewhat in depth on Sunday, accompanied by weak Q-G
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front. This will result in a
modest increase in rain chances (30-40% PoPs), especially in south
GA and AL where the more favorable moisture profile will be.
Given the expectation of weak 0-6km bulk shear values and modest
MLCAPE, the chance of organized severe storms appears minimal. It
will be hot with summerlike temperatures and humidity, with highs
around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

While the global models differ on some of the details, they do agree
on a significant upper level pattern change. A deep upper-level
trough will develop over the eastern CONUS later this week. The GFS
is faster with the development of this trough than the ECMWF, and
that solution would bring an end to our rain chances early
Wednesday while the ECMWF clearing would be late Wednesday. As we
usually do, we used an average of the two solutions for this
forecast package. PoPs will be 30 to 40% Tuesday and Wednesday
(mainly afternoon and evening storms), followed by no PoPs
beginning Thursday. Warm and humid conditions will continue
through mid week, followed by a modest cooling and drying trend
beginning Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the day, except for brief
MVFR cigs possible this afternoon. Some MVFR fog is possible in the
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but the
chances are too low to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure system centered off the Southeast coast will provide
light south winds across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Despite the light winds, seas will actually increase to the 3 to 4
feet range by Sunday as longer-period swell develops in the long
southerly fetch.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level on Sunday. Rainfall amounts for the
upcoming week are not expected to be particularly heavy or
widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  90  68  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   68  81  71  80  71 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        67  87  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  30  20
Albany        67  89  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  90  68  88  68 /  10  20  10  30  20
Cross City    66  89  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  68  81  70  80  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291743
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
143 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the day, except for
brief MVFR cigs possible this afternoon. Some MVFR fog is possible
in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
but the chances are too low to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1012 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall on Monday where it will remain at least through
Tuesday. Then, the upper level pattern will become highly amplified
from mid to late week as a sharp ridge develops out west and a deep
trough digs east of the Plains. This will send the front and most of
the accompanying moisture well to our south and east as bring
another cold front (dry) down from the north late Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will continue at least through Wednesday with
drier conditions by the end of the week. Max temps will be in the
mid to upper 80s Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to
late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  90  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
Panama City   69  83  70  82  70 /   0   0  10  30  10
Dothan        67  88  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Albany        67  90  67  87  67 /  10  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      68  91  67  89  67 /  10  20  20  40  20
Cross City    66  91  67  87  67 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  69  82  70  81  70 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291412
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

The fog and lower clouds have largely dissipated this morning.
Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Overall the forecast is
on track and besides tweaks to the hourly trends, have not made
any changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [606 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall on Monday where it will remain at least through
Tuesday. Then, the upper level pattern will become highly amplified
from mid to late week as a sharp ridge develops out west and a deep
trough digs east of the Plains. This will send the front and most of
the accompanying moisture well to our south and east as bring
another cold front (dry) down from the north late Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will continue at least through Wednesday with
drier conditions by the end of the week. Max temps will be in the
mid to upper 80s Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to
late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Saturday] Areas of fog and low ceilings will prevail
through the mid-morning hours with widely varying conditions
across the area, ranging from VFR to LIFR at times. Persistent VFR
conditions are expected to return later this morning.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  67  90  67  87 /  20  10  10  10  30
Panama City   80  69  83  70  82 /  10   0   0  10  30
Dothan        87  67  88  67  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
Albany        88  67  90  67  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
Valdosta      89  68  91  67  89 /  20  10  20  20  40
Cross City    88  66  91  67  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  69  82  70  81 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291006
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
606 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Saturday] Areas of fog and low ceilings will prevail
through the mid-morning hours with widely varying conditions
across the area, ranging from VFR to LIFR at times. Persistent VFR
conditions are expected to return later this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [540 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall on Monday where it will remain at least through
Tuesday. Then, the upper level pattern will become highly amplified
from mid to late week as a sharp ridge develops out west and a deep
trough digs east of the Plains. This will send the front and most of
the accompanying moisture well to our south and east as bring
another cold front (dry) down from the north late Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will continue at least through Wednesday with
drier conditions by the end of the week. Max temps will be in the
mid to upper 80s Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to
late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  67  90  67  87 /  20  10  10  10  30
Panama City   80  69  83  70  82 /  10   0   0  10  30
Dothan        87  67  88  67  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
Albany        88  67  90  67  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
Valdosta      89  68  91  67  89 /  20  10  20  20  40
Cross City    88  66  91  67  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  69  82  70  81 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290940
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion...Resend
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
540 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall on Monday where it will remain at least through
Tuesday. Then, the upper level pattern will become highly amplified
from mid to late week as a sharp ridge develops out west and a deep
trough digs east of the Plains. This will send the front and most of
the accompanying moisture well to our south and east as bring
another cold front (dry) down from the north late Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will continue at least through Wednesday with
drier conditions by the end of the week. Max temps will be in the
mid to upper 80s Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to
late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION

[Through 06z Saturday] Areas of fog and low ceilings will prevail
through the mid-morning hours with conditions down to LIFR expected
at times. VFR conditions are expected to return later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  67  90  67  87 /  20  10  10  10  30
Panama City   80  69  83  70  82 /  10   0   0  10  30
Dothan        87  67  88  67  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
Albany        88  67  90  67  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
Valdosta      89  68  91  67  89 /  20  10  20  20  40
Cross City    88  66  91  67  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  69  82  70  81 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290758
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall in the mid to upper level zonal flow on Monday where
it will remain at least through Tuesday. Then, the upper level
pattern will become highly amplified from mid to late week as a
sharp ridge develops out west and a deep trough digs east of the
Plains. This will send the front and most of the accompanying
moisture well to our south and east as bring another cold front
(dry) down from the north late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances
will continue at least through Wednesday with drier conditions by
the end of the week. Max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s
Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION

[Through 06z Saturday] Areas of fog and low ceilings will prevail
through the mid-morning hours with conditions down to LIFR expected
at times. VFR conditions are expected to return later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  67  90  67  87 /  20  10  10  10  30
Panama City   80  69  83  70  82 /  10   0   0  10  30
Dothan        87  67  88  67  86 /  20  10  10  10  40
Albany        88  67  90  67  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
Valdosta      89  68  91  67  89 /  20  10  20  20  40
Cross City    88  66  91  67  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  82  69  82  70  81 /  10   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290040
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection from this afternoon has dissipated across the region
only leaving a little cirrus in place. Over the last couple of
hours this cloud deck has thinned considerably from the afternoon
hours, so still anticipate a good bit of fog development overnight
given the especially moist low level conditions. No significant
changes were made to the forecast this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [717 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The short term period will feature a building ridge. There will
still be enough moisture for a few showers in the afternoons, but
PoPs will be 20% or less. Rain chances will increase Saturday night
ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures will be above normal
with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s (normal
values for Tallahassee are 83 and 56).


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The cold front will approach the area on Sunday and then will
stall out across the CWA. Rain chances will linger through early
next week with 20 to 30% expected each day. By Thursday we will
begin a drying trend. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...
Main forecast challenge this evening is convective debris
cloudiness across the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend and how that
affects the fog forecast later. It`s likely to only delay the
onset of fog development overnight, but not prevent it. Thus,
fairly pessimistic forecast for the terminals by 08z with LIFR
conditions likely through 13z- 14z. VFR conditions should prevail
thereafter.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions are expected on Friday and through much of
Saturday. Rain chances will begin to increase late Saturday and
through the remainder of the weekend. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels, so there are no fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rain is possible with thunderstorms this evening but
widespread significant rain is not expected. There are no river
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  89  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Panama City   72  81  70  82  71 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        67  88  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        67  89  66  89  68 /  10   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      69  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
Cross City    69  88  66  90  68 /  10  10   0  10  20
Apalachicola  70  81  69  81  70 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 282317
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
717 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...
Main forecast challenge this evening is convective debris
cloudiness across the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend and how that
affects the fog forecast later. It`s likely to only delay the
onset of fog development overnight, but not prevent it. Thus,
fairly pessimistic forecast for the terminals by 08z with LIFR
conditions likely through 13z- 14z. VFR conditions should prevail
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [340 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Thick cirrus clouds from morning convection west of the region
limited convective coverage early today west of the Apalachicola and
Chattahoochee Rivers. Further east, where the cloud deck was
thinner, scattered storms are developing along the seabreeze in
north Florida. Expect overall coverage to be low with all storms
coming to an end around sunset. There still remains a low-end threat
for some gusty winds or small hail, primarily across north Florida
and possibly into extreme south-central Georgia over the next couple
of hours. Fog and low clouds are expected once again tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The short term period will feature a building ridge. There will
still be enough moisture for a few showers in the afternoons, but
PoPs will be 20% or less. Rain chances will increase Saturday night
ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures will be above normal
with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s (normal
values for Tallahassee are 83 and 56).


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The cold front will approach the area on Sunday and then will
stall out across the CWA. Rain chances will linger through early
next week with 20 to 30% expected each day. By Thursday we will
begin a drying trend. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions are expected on Friday and through much of
Saturday. Rain chances will begin to increase late Saturday and
through the remainder of the weekend. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels, so there are no fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rain is possible with thunderstorms this evening but
widespread significant rain is not expected. There are no river
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  89  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Panama City   72  81  70  82  71 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        67  88  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        67  89  66  89  68 /  10   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      69  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
Cross City    69  88  66  90  68 /  10  10   0  10  20
Apalachicola  70  81  69  81  70 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281940
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Thick cirrus clouds from morning convection west of the region
limited convective coverage early today west of the Apalachicola and
Chattahoochee Rivers. Further east, where the cloud deck was
thinner, scattered storms are developing along the seabreeze in
north Florida. Expect overall coverage to be low with all storms
coming to an end around sunset. There still remains a low-end threat
for some gusty winds or small hail, primarily across north Florida
and possibly into extreme south-central Georgia over the next couple
of hours. Fog and low clouds are expected once again tonight.



.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The short term period will feature a building ridge. There will
still be enough moisture for a few showers in the afternoons, but
PoPs will be 20% or less. Rain chances will increase Saturday night
ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures will be above normal
with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s (normal
values for Tallahassee are 83 and 56).

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The cold front will approach the area on Sunday and then will
stall out across the CWA. Rain chances will linger through early
next week with 20 to 30% expected each day. By Thursday we will
begin a drying trend. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Strato-CU building in behind outflow from this morning`s storms has
lowered ceilings to MVFR at DHN, ECP, and ABY. Expect this MVFR deck
to not be continuous, resulting in on-and-off restrictions at these
terminals. All sites should return to VFR temporarily by this
evening, before low ceilings and visibilities return to at least
TLH, ECP, and DHN later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions are expected on Friday and through much of
Saturday. Rain chances will begin to increase late Saturday and
through the remainder of the weekend. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical levels, so there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rain is possible with thunderstorms this evening but
widespread significant rain is not expected. There are no river
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  89  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Panama City   72  81  70  82  71 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        67  88  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        67  89  66  89  68 /  10   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      69  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
Cross City    69  88  66  90  68 /  10  10   0  10  20
Apalachicola  70  81  69  81  70 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281410
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An 11z surface analysis depicted a trough running along the LA
coast, through southern MS/AL, dropping southeast across the
Florida Big Bend. This has been the focus for showers and
thunderstorms outside of the immediate Tri-State region this
morning. Hires models have a poor handle on this feature and
subsequent convection, but with modest SW steering flow, expect
little movement to this boundary through the day. Thus, the bulk
of the local convection will be forced by a combination of outflow
from earlier storms and a seabreeze evolution similar to
yesterday. This will likely mean showers and storms forming early
this afternoon across the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama,
moving northeast through southwest Georgia and the Big Bend later
this afternoon. Some dry air in the mid-levels is resulting in
marginally high dThetaE values across the region. Further,
plentiful instability is forecast to boost WMSI values into the
50-70 range (via the RAP). These parameters would suggest the
potential for some of the stronger storms to produce gusty to
damaging winds. Additionally, lapse rates are forecast to
gradually become more steep this afternoon (especially across
south Georgia and the Big Bend), which could introduce the
potential for some small to marginally severe hail. All this said,
there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding today`s forecast
due to the poor performing models.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

With ABY and VLD forecast to return to VFR in the next hour, VFR
will prevail at all terminals shortly. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to be quite widespread near ECP and DHN, spreading
east to ABY and possibly TLH later this afternoon. Another round
of low visibilities and ceilings is expected to impact all
terminals after midnight tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [638 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The Friday to Saturday time frame will be characterized by a
building ridge aloft with lower precipitable water values as
compared to today (near normal around 1" or so). This should
generally limit convective coverage, despite models generating
some light QPF over parts of the area both days. PoPs were kept
below 30% and largely concentrated in the 18-00Z time frame. With
the building ridge and increasing low-level thicknesses, we are
also expecting temperatures to be slightly warmer. Highs around 90
degrees are expected, with lows in the mid-upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A cold front should push into the area later on Sunday, bringing
slightly higher chances of rain and thunderstorms. The front will
then stall near or over the area, keeping low rain chances in the
forecast into next week. The arrival of the front will also trend
temperatures a bit cooler, although still roughly near normal for
early May.


.MARINE...

In general over the next 5-7 days, winds should remain below 15
knots with seas 3 feet or less. These conditions should hold for
the most part, but higher winds and seas will be possible near
thunderstorms. In particular, some storms over the waters today
could produce strong, gusty winds.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Some pockets of locally heavy rainfall rates are possible today
with thunderstorm activity, but widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  68  91  67  91 /  60  20  20   0  20
Panama City   80  71  82  70  82 /  30  10  20   0   0
Dothan        82  66  89  66  88 /  70  20  20   0  20
Albany        83  65  90  66  89 /  70  20  10   0  20
Valdosta      86  67  90  66  91 /  60  20  10   0  20
Cross City    86  68  87  66  91 /  20  10  20   0  20
Apalachicola  78  70  83  69  83 /  40  10  20  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Lamers
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...DVD





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