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000
FXUS62 KTAE 300118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NECESSARY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (AROUND 40) WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...
KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT DHN
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL/CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NECESSARY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (AROUND 40) WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...
KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT DHN
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL/CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NECESSARY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (AROUND 40) WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...
KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT DHN
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL/CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NECESSARY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (AROUND 40) WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...
KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT DHN
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL/CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 292007
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOWER
40S) WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.


.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT DHN MONDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 292007
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOWER
40S) WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE HIGH. FARTHER WEST...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...KEEPING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.


.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE REACH AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP JUST HEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE THE
FOLLOWING FEATURES WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED: LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT,
DIGGING SHORTWAVE, LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. MODELS BRING CONVECTION INTO OUR FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A TLH-ABY LINE), MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY
SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAP TO YIELD A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS. IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THE 15Z SREF MEAN INCREASES
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND RELATIVELY LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (7000 TO 9000 FT AGL, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILES). THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS, WHILE THE LAPSE RATES
AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
GUSTY WINDS SECONDARY. IF SBCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG, AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL HI-RES WRF MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM, THEN THE CHANCES OF
LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. THOSE PARTICULAR MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIG HAIL PARAMETER AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2, WHICH
IS IN A FAVORABLE RANGE FOR LARGE HAIL. WE HAVE ADDED SOME WIND
AND HAIL WORDING TO THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AROUND THE REGION INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD SET UP ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIETY IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY, SO IT IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER TO EVALUATE POSSIBLE STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
POPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE (30-50%). TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AFTER A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, A CORRESPONDING LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID-80S. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT DHN MONDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH SCEC OR EVEN
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THE AIR MASS IS CLEARLY
DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH
FORECAST ERC VALUES OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...AND
VERY LONG DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY RIVER FLOODING RISK. RIVER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   43  78  58  81  61 /  10  30  30  30  20
PANAMA CITY   55  74  64  75  66 /  10  30  30  20  10
DOTHAN        49  78  55  78  60 /  10  50  20  40  30
ALBANY        46  76  53  79  58 /  10  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      43  77  54  79  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
CROSS CITY    40  76  57  81  61 /   0   0  20  20  10
APALACHICOLA  51  75  63  77  66 /   0  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291411
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.


.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291411
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.


.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291411
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.


.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291411
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.


.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290741
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S (WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY), TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
TIME TO TIME.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290741
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S (WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY), TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
TIME TO TIME.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290741
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S (WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY), TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
TIME TO TIME.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290741
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S (WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY), TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
TIME TO TIME.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID
LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY
ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37
FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28
PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  44  78  58  80 /   0  10  20  20  30
PANAMA CITY   65  56  74  63  75 /   0  10  20  20  30
DOTHAN        65  50  78  57  78 /   0  10  40  20  30
ALBANY        64  46  77  54  77 /   0  10  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      65  42  76  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    68  40  76  56  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
APALACHICOLA  65  54  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290035
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT
OF CHILLY TEMPS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO LOW. WE
WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT FEEL
THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON CAR WINDSHIELDS AND NOT POSE ANY REAL
THREAT TO VEGETATION. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK IMPACTING DHN AND
ABY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [405 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY HOWEVER, TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   44  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        37  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        34  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      35  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  44  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290035
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT
OF CHILLY TEMPS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO LOW. WE
WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT FEEL
THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON CAR WINDSHIELDS AND NOT POSE ANY REAL
THREAT TO VEGETATION. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK IMPACTING DHN AND
ABY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [405 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY HOWEVER, TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   44  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        37  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        34  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      35  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  44  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290035
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT
OF CHILLY TEMPS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO LOW. WE
WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT FEEL
THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON CAR WINDSHIELDS AND NOT POSE ANY REAL
THREAT TO VEGETATION. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK IMPACTING DHN AND
ABY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [405 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY HOWEVER, TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   44  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        37  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        34  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      35  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  44  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290035
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
835 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT
OF CHILLY TEMPS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO LOW. WE
WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, BUT FEEL
THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON CAR WINDSHIELDS AND NOT POSE ANY REAL
THREAT TO VEGETATION. THEREFORE, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK IMPACTING DHN AND
ABY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [405 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY HOWEVER, TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   44  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        37  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        34  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      35  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  44  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 282005
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRONG TROUGH PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING
ANY LOWER.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   45  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        36  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        36  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      37  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  43  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 282005
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRONG TROUGH PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING
ANY LOWER.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   45  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        36  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        36  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      37  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  43  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 282005
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRONG TROUGH PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING
ANY LOWER.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THIS SIGNALS A
WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR AREA SHOULD
BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET; THUS
DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
QG FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z GFS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR...A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION THAT COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOST VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY LINGER AROUND THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON DETAILS...ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING LIGHT QPF TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY 24-HOUR WINDOW
FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIESCENT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ARE EXPECTED. PREDICTED FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
IN LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. THIS IS
NOT THE CASE IN OTHER COUNTIES. MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   38  69  45  78  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
PANAMA CITY   45  66  57  74  63 /   0   0  10  20  20
DOTHAN        36  66  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  50  20
ALBANY        36  65  46  77  53 /   0   0  10  40  20
VALDOSTA      37  67  43  76  54 /   0   0  10  20  20
CROSS CITY    37  68  41  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  43  65  55  74  63 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND
     WAKULLA-LEON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-
     INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 280038
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER PASSAGE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT, NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
INVADE THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE MARCH 8TH AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY
ALBEIT DRY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION [424 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN
ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO FALL, MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE AMOUNT
OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS THE
EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND WOULD NOT ALLOW
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.


.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...
ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   41  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   45  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        38  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    44  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





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