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000
FXUS62 KTAE 290712
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The messy synoptic pattern continue across the Southeast this
morning. WV imagery supports model data that places an elongated +PV
anomaly (N to S) that essentially splits GA and FL in half (W to E).
Further west, while the core of highest PV remains in the Middle
Mississippi Valley, a channel of weakly +PV extends through the
Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast. At the surface, we
have Tropical Storm Bonnie off the GA/SC coasts, with ridging
spreading down the Appalachians into the Tri-State region.

The shortwaves mentioned above and T.S. Bonnie will have little
impact on the region besides an increase in mid to high level
cloudiness at times. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected once again this afternoon along the Panhandle seabreeze
front. With northerly steering flow, expect these storms to remain
pinned fairly close to the coast. There are some indications that
late this afternoon into the evening, the northerly flow regime
could advect in a few showers that may develop north of the region
this afternoon. This is highly uncertain at this time and would
mainly affect areas along and north of a line from Albany through
Dothan.

Otherwise, another afternoon with highs slightly above seasonal
averages is expected. Low 90s are forecast inland, with mid 80s
along the immediate coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The broad upper ridge over the east coast will lift northeast
through Monday. Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly move along the
coast of the Carolinas but will not have any impact locally.
Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will allow
for afternoon thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze. PoPs
will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows near 70.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A trough over the northern plains will deepen as it moves eastward.
Locally the sea breeze will be the dominant forcing mechanism and
PoPs will range from 20-30%. Rain chances will increase as the
next system arrives over the weekend. Highs will be in the lower
90s with lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF with the
possibility of nearby storms at ECP later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will generally be from the west around 10 knots. Seas will
be 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from marginally high dispersions across the Suwannee River
Basin the next couple of days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers are below action stage and there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  10  40
Panama City   84  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        90  68  94  69  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        90  68  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  93  68  92 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    91  68  91  70  91 /  10   0  20  10  20
Apalachicola  85  72  86  73  86 /  30   0  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
At 14 UTC this morning, our region was located between weak high
pressure across the Southern Appalachians, TD2 about 225 SSE of
Charleston SC and an approaching mid level disturbance across the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This has left a relatively weak
pressure pattern in place across North Florida, with generally
light easterly flow. Aloft, drier mid level air across the
Carolina Piedmont in advance of TD2 extends down through South
Georgia and into North Florida, as depicted well in the 12z KTAE
sounding. This drier air aloft and subsidence present at 800 mb
will be the main limiting factors for thunderstorm development
today across the eastern half of the region.

The airmass is a little more favorable for convection off to the
west of Tallahassee, where the hi-res guidance suggests isolated
thunderstorm development in the late afternoon with the Panhandle
sea breeze. Given good run to run consistency in the hi-res
guidance, will continue the low end PoPs in the Panhandle sea
breeze zone. Should be a warm day, especially across South Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend, where highs will be in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the period.
Iso TSRA handled with VC groups at ECP this afternoon. Fog is
unlikely overnight, though cannot be ruled out, at least at MVFR
levels at VLD on Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A broad upper level ridge will stay in place over the east coast
through Sunday before lifting north on Monday. Tropical Depression
Two, currently 350 miles southeast of Charleston, will slowly
approach the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Impacts will
stay well to the northeast of the local area. There will be a slight
chance (20-30%) of sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs
will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level flow will be zonal to start the long term period. By
Wednesday the trough over the central US will begin to deepen. Moisture
will increase on Thursday resulting in a 30% chance of thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows near
70.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will become westerly on
Monday. Seas will be 3 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain for the
next few days, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10   0  20
Panama City   82  71  85  73  87 /  30   0  10  10  20
Dothan        88  67  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  67  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  66  91  67  92 /   0  10  10   0  20
Cross City    91  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  86  72  87 /  30   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271951
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The region will remain on the southern side of an area of high
pressure across Eastern North Carolina overnight. Expect mostly
clear skies through much of the night. With the gradually
increasing low level moisture over the last couple of days,
would not be surprised to see some patchy fog around sunrise on
Saturday, especially in the Florida Panhandle. Overnight
temperatures will continue to be quite mild, generally in the mid
60s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A large upper level ridge over the east coast and strong shortwave
trough over the Plains will remain in place through Sunday before
the ridge begins to slowly slide eastward as the trough weakens and
lifts northeastward. he area of low pressure near the Bahamas will
stay well to the east of the local area. There will be slight
chances (20%) for thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze along
the Panhandle, the Big Bend and in south central Georgia this
weekend, but otherwise, it will be quiet and warm. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The upper level ridge will gradually weaken as it shifts eastward
with another trough developing over the Plains around mid-way
through the week then moving eastward. Chances for thunderstorms
will remain in the 20-30% range through Thursday, with chances
increasing to 30-40% as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will
remain warm next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and early
overnight hours. With increasing low level moisture, expect MVFR
restrictions at DHN/ECP/VLD a couple hours before sunrise. Any
vsby restrictions should end by 13z with VFR conditions for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the coastal waters will allow for southeasterly
winds around 10 knots for the next several days. Early next week
winds will become westerly around 10 knots. Seas will be 3 feet or
less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry air mass across the region will persist into the weekend,
although relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent. No
red flag conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain the in the
forecast, there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  92  68  92  68 /   0  10  10  10   0
Panama City   67  84  70  87  72 /   0  20  10  10  10
Dothan        65  88  66  91  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        64  89  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      64  91  66  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  10
Cross City    64  90  67  90  68 /   0  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  69  86  69  88  71 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Moore





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and early
overnight hours. With increasing low level moisture, expect MVFR
restrictions at DHN/ECP/VLD a couple hours before sunrise. Any
vsby restrictions should end by 13z with VFR conditions for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1012 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Easterly flow is in place this morning as the region is on the
southern edge of an area of high pressure off the Mid Atlantic
States. The low level airmass has continued to moisten, and expect
it to be a little more humid this afternoon. Expect a mostly sunny
day across the region with highs warming into the lower 90s,
except along the immediate coast, where temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s are expected.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Upper level ridging will remain over the east coast through the short
term. Rain chances will be less than 20%, however an isolated
thunderstorm is possible with the sea breeze. The area of low
pressure near the Bahamas will stay well to the east of the local
area. Lows will be in the mid 60s with highs in the upper 80s on
Friday and lower 90s on Saturday.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Ridging will begin to weaken as the tropical wave moves up the
east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center has an 80%
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
However, most of the impacts will stay well to the northeast
along the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture will extend to the
local area and PoPs will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in
the lower 90s with lows near 70.


.MARINE...

With high pressure in place winds will be southeasterly 10 to 15
knots for the next several days. Early next week winds will become
westerly around 10 knots. Seas will be 3 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain the in the
forecast, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  92  68  92  68 /   0  10  10  10   0
Panama City   67  84  70  87  72 /   0  20  10  10  10
Dothan        65  88  66  91  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        64  89  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      64  91  66  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  10
Cross City    64  90  67  90  68 /   0  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  69  86  69  88  71 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270152
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
952 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to the forecast for tonight. All
the showers on radar have diminished as of 02Z.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with fairly light winds
overall. Some VCSH possible near DHN through 02Z this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [349 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An isolated shower of thunderstorm is possible through this evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland
and around 70 along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Expecting a dry and seasonably warm end to the work week, as the
region remains under the influence of a broad upper level ridge.
Although moisture will be limited, cannot rule out a stray afternoon
thunderstorm along the seabreeze, particularly in the western part
of the forecast area near Panama City. Afternoon high temperatures
near 90 inland, with lows in the mid 60s.

Global models remain in general agreement with keeping low pressure
currently north of the Bahamas well to the east of our forecast
area. As a result, not expecting much in terms of impacts locally.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The upper level trough associated with the tropical wave off the
northeast coast of Florida will remain over and just east of the
Florida peninsula with ridging on either side of it-over the Gulf of
Mexico and the Atlantic ocean. This trough will lift northward
slowly through the period up to the mid-Atlantic coastline. The
National Hurricane Center shows the tropical disturbance has a 70%
chance of formation over the next 5 days, however the most direct
impacts from this system will most likely be felt well to our east-
over the coastlines of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states.
Local chances for rain will remain low, in the 20-30% range through
the long term period. Warm temperatures will prevail with highs in
the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.


.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf through
the weekend with easterly surges in winds over our eastern waters
during the overnight periods and onshore winds  along the coast in
the afternoon periods. Starting early next week, winds from the west
will prevail. Seas will remain 3 feet or less for the next several
days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

It will continue to be very warm with a dry air mass from Friday
into Saturday. However, relative humidity will remain above 30
percent and red flag conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

With prevailing dry conditions, local rivers will remain below
action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  89  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  83  69  83  71 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        66  88  66  87  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        66  89  64  88  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  88  62  89  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  88  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  69  81  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lamers
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Moore/Bennett
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Bennett





000
FXUS62 KTAE 261750
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
150 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

A brief period of of MVFR/IFR vsbys/cigs will be possible around
daybreak at ECP. Otherwise, VFR is expected at all terminals
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1013 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weak shortwave with vort centered near Athens, GA was moving
slowly to the east. Models and soundings indicate an increase in
atmospheric moisture extending southward into north Florida
associated with this feature. This morning`s KTAE sounding
showed a PW of 1.25" with southerly flow up to 85H. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly over our northernmost GA
zones where available moisture is highest and also inland portions
of our Florida zones as the sea breeze develops. Will add slight PoP
(20%) for those areas on the update.

Otherwise, dry conditions will continue with highs similar to the
past few days. Expect around 90 degrees away from the coast, with
low 80s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Our forecast area will be situated between two upper level ridges,
one over the Gulf of Mexico and the other extending from the western
Atlantic into southeast Canada. A deep layer low pressure system,
with its surface minimum currently centered several hundred miles
east of south FL, will be steered through this split in the ridge
and toward the Southeast coast on Saturday. The consensus of
global models shows a 1012 mb low centered offshore the GA/SC
coasts Saturday evening. The FSU Cyclone phase website does
indicate this system could become marginally warm core, and the
NHC gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone over the next 5 days, though only 30% through Friday
evening.

Given the fairly good agreement among the latest global models,
we`re fairly confident that this system will remain well to our east
and have no direct impacts on our weather. It`s likely that the
large envelope of dry, sinking air preceding this system will
suppress deep moist convection in our region, and our PoPs are
less than 20% each day. Temperatures will remain close to normal
for this time of year with lows in the mid 60s and highs around
90. However, the humidity will continue to be on the low side (at
least compared to early summer values), which will make it feel
relatively comfortable in the shade.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The upper level pattern over the Southeast will change little from
that described above, allowing the aforementioned low pressure
system to move slowly inland along the SC coast during the first
part of the week. Our forecast area will remain on the subsidence
side of the weakness between the Mid Atlantic and Gulf ridges.
Gradually increasing moisture across our region will increase,
becoming more supportive of afternoon & evening deep moist
convection triggered by the sea breeze fonts. Temperatures will
generally be a few degrees above normal.


.MARINE...

The weather pattern will remain steady through Saturday as a surface
ridge remains centered northeast of the marine area. Moderate east
winds will prevail during the overnight and early morning period,
with light onshore winds near the coast during the afternoon and
early evening hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of marginally high dispersion indices, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

The local rivers will remain below action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  89  65  90  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  83  69  83  71 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        66  88  66  87  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        66  89  64  88  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  88  62  89  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  88  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  69  81  69  82  70 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Fournier





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