Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KTAE 191852
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
252 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The nearly stacked low pressure system over NE FL/SE GA this
afternoon will continue to slowly depart ENE into the coastal
waters tonight. At the same time...surface high pressure will
nose Swd from Ern Canada into the GA. The result will be
strengthening NE low level flow which will transport ample wrap
around moisture from Atlc back towards our CWA in the form of low
stratus and possibly some drizzle especially for our Ern counties.
PWATs hover near 1 inch overnight especially east of Apalachicola
River. HI RES guidance show last drizzle/-R exiting NEWD of our
CWA around 03Z and this looks reasonable. Will go with 0-30% SW-NE
POP gradient down to zero everywhere after 03z. Model soundings
all show strengthening NNE flow to H8 then NW flow above which
will yield NNE winds around 10 KT and make it difficult for any
fog to develop especially Wrn half of CWA. Low temps from near 50
in less cloudy SE AL to low 50s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Low clouds may linger into Sunday in association with wrap-around
moisture around the departing area of low pressure east of the
area. Otherwise, look for deep layer ridging, clearing skies and
seasonal temps to start the work week.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Widespread IFR to low end MVFR CIGS and MVFR
VSBYS (especially at KABY/KVLD/KTLH) will continue through this
afternoon with only a slight improvement this eve. Patchy -DZ and
even a small chance of Shwrs are possible especially at VLD during
rest of this aftn. Surface winds will be N 10 TO 15 KT with higher
gusts then will remain at or above 10 KT overnight and into Sunday
so anything beyond patchy predawn light fog unlikely. However...
under NE low level flow...IFR to LIFR cigs are likely again for
tonight. After around 14z...CIGS will lift to MVFR and likely VFR
at DHN/ECP.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will start the night at cautionary levels, but a
gradual decreasing trend is expected as the night progresses. No
major systems are expected to affect the area through next week,
and winds are expected to stay generally around 15 knots or less
after tonight.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Cloudy and cool conditions will continue into Sunday morning...
especially ERN areas. Red Flag conditions are not expected through
the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along
the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage:
St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  70  51  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  71  56  76  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  73  52  79  57 /  10   0   0   0  10
Albany        51  72  51  79  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  70  50  79  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  75  52  80  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  69  55  74  58 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 191358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The large scale split flow pattern this morning remains highlighted
in Srn stream by nearly stacked system over SE GA/NE FL. This
includes well defined mid/upper cutoff low with drier sinking air
wrapping around it. At surface...1011mb occluding low with
diffuse warm front Ewd thru coastal GA. All this reflected in
local obs with NLY flow on backside and onshore flow ahead. Radar
and area obs shows that with mid/upper drying... decreasing
coverage/intensity recent hours and although rain has largely
ended except for NE tier of GA counties...proximity of surface low
continues to favor light drizzle (mainly Ern counties) and low
stratus everywhere.

Through sundown...Mid/upper low should drift Ewd to Atlc seaboard
while surface low drifts ENE to along NE FL/SE GA coast. RAP13
soundings reflect this with lower level flow shifting to the NE
favoring low stratus while flow above becomes Nwd with ample dry
air. However with proximity of surface low...wrap around drizzle
and low clouds may still be a factor especially across NE tier
counties as reflected in area PWATS still hovering near 1 inch at
TLH and even DHN at 00Z. Also 24hr dew point comparison show
little change so any low level drying will be slow. There is a
small chance of thunderstorms N/E of surface low; namely in SE
Big Bend or Ern counties of S/Cntrl GA due to cold air and steep
lapse rates aloft seen on 12z TAE sounding. The chances increase
with any breaks in the overcast and this may even produce a few
strong storms with hail and gusty winds the primary concern. The
threat should end by sundown as low moves further ENE. The low
clouds and drizzle on back side of low should keep temperatures
well below average (mid 60s, as opposed to climo highs in the
lower 80s).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Sunday]...Widespread IFR cigs will continue through
this morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also possible
especially at VLD/ABY. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels
this at mainly at KECP and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions
will get much better than this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA
and (even isolated TSRA near KVLD) will diminish by sunset.
Surface winds will be N around 10 KT. IFR to LIFR cigs are likely
again for much of tonight as well

&&

.Marine...

Latest obs indicate that winds have dropped below advisory levels
and will drop SCA replacing it with SCEC headline. Winds and seas
should continue to gradually drop below headline criteria tonight
with mostly light winds and low seas expected at least for the first
half of next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with higher
amounts of 4 to 5.5 inches in Southeast Alabama and Walton and
Holmes counties in Florida. These rainfall amounts in additional to
rainfall from earlier in the week have led to a rise on rivers with
many area rivers in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is
expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points along the
following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood stage: St.
Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [639 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly
departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday.
For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and
east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will
be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the
weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature.
Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow
will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer
ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  52  73  52  80 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  53  74  57  78 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  50  74  54  79 /  20  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  51  73  51  79 /  40  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  52  72  51  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
Cross City    71  53  76  52  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  54  72  56  75 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 191041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed 1012 mb low pressure
system centered over Apalachee Bay. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a potent mid-upper tropospheric low over the FL
Panhandle, which was wrapping drying, sinking air around it. The
heavy rain has ended in our forecast area, but scattered showers
and patchy drizzle will continue through much of the day. The
occluding low will translate slowly east northeast, and although
there will be a substantial dry slot aloft, there will be enough
boundary layer moisture for the low cloud cover to remain all
day...keeping high temperatures well below average (mid 60s, as
opposed to climo highs in the lower 80s). There is a slight chance
of a thunderstorm in North FL or South Central GA this afternoon
due to steep lapse rates aloft.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly
departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday.
For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and
east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will
be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the
weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature.
Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow
will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer
ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06z Sunday] Widespread IFR to VLIFR cigs will continue
through this morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also
possible. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels this at KECP
and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions will get much better than
this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA and (even isolated TSRA near
KVLD) will diminish by sunset. Surface winds will be N around 10 KT.
IFR to LIFR cigs are likely tonight as well.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions with gusty northwest winds will continue
to spread from west to east across the coastal waters in the wake
of a departing low pressure system. Winds and seas should
gradually drop below headline criteria tonight with mostly light
winds and low seas expected at least for the first half of next
week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain
already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer
for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers
are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to
reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint
River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin
to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and
will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get
another 1-2 inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  52  73  52  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  53  74  57  78 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  50  74  54  79 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  51  73  51  79 /  40  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  52  72  51  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
Cross City    71  53  76  52  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  54  72  56  75 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT








000
FXUS62 KTAE 190624
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
224 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed 1012 mb low pressure
system centered over Apalachee Bay. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a potent mid-upper tropospheric low over the FL
Panhandle, which was wrapping drying, sinking air around it. The
heavy rain has ended in our forecast area, but scattered showers
and patchy drizzle will continue through much of the day. The
occluding low will translate slowly east northeast, and although
there will be a substantial dry slot aloft, there will be enough
boundary layer moisture for the low cloud cover to remain all
day...keeping high temperatures well below average (mid 60s, as
opposed to climo highs in the lower 80s). There is a slight chance
of a thunderstorm in North FL or South Central GA this afternoon
due to steep lapse rates aloft.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The local area will still be experiencing some impact of the slowly
departing Mid/Upper level shortwave trough tonight through Sunday.
For tonight, we could see a few lingering showers mainly along and
east of Albany to Cross City. Otherwise, we now believe that it will
be mostly cloudy across the region through the remainder of the
weekend due to wrap around moisture associated with this feature.
Although it will be warmer Sunday, the clouds and offshore flow
will keep temps below seasonal levels. Look for deep layer
ridging, clearing skies and seasonal temps to start the work week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06z Sunday] Widespread IFR to VLIFR cigs will be the rule
throughout the morning. Patchy -DZ and even isolated SHRA are also
possible. Cigs may finally reach low-end MVFR levels this afternoon-
especially at KECP and KDHN. It`s unlikely that conditions will get
much better than this, even this evening. Scattered SHRA and (even
isolated TSRA near KVLD) will diminish by sunset. Surface winds will
be N around 10 KT.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions with gusty northwest winds will continue
to spread from west to east across the coastal waters in the wake
of a departing low pressure system. Winds and seas should
gradually drop below headline criteria tonight with mostly light
winds and low seas expected at least for the first half of next
week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain
already and the rain will last until late evening or even longer
for the northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers
are in minor flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to
reach major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint
River and the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin
to fall early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and
will do so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get
another 1-2 inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  52  73  52  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
Panama City   67  53  74  57  78 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  50  74  54  79 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  51  73  51  79 /  40  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  52  72  51  81 /  40  30   0   0   0
Cross City    71  53  76  52  80 /  30  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  54  72  56  75 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






000
FXUS62 KTAE 190224
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As the upper low approaches the forecast area, the large scale
lift has pushed to the north, taking the heavy rainfall with it.
With the end of the heavy rain, the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. While the widespread rain is ending, the proximity of
the upper low will continue to support scattered showers through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Have trimmed back the
PoPs to better reflect the scattered nature of the precip.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] A low stratus deck will persist overnight at
all terminals, with IFR/LIFR cigs likely until Saturday morning.
Clouds will likely be slow to lift and dissipate in the late
morning and afternoon, with IFR or MVFR cigs likely to persist
through much of the day. Winds will gradually become more
northerly, generally ranging from 10-20 kt through the rest of the
period at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas are increasing once again as low pressure deepens
and moves northeast into the Florida Big Bend. Expect Small Craft
Advisory conditions to continue into Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [313 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.


.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.


.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  50  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  40  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  70  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  60  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  50  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT









000
FXUS62 KTAE 181913
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The period begins with mid/upper trough over NE Gulf region
providing some lift. At surface...low south of FL panhandle this
afternoon with diffuse warm front ewd across Nrn Gulf of Mex. Satellite
currently shows a mid level dry slot advancing across Panhandle
but ample rain shield elsewhere with several bands of moderate
rain across SE AL and the Ern Big Bend and adjacent GA. As of 2 PM
EDT...24 rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 4 inches over Wrn
portions of SE AL and adjacent Walton County and generally 2 to 2
1/2 inches elsewhere.

Before midnight, surface low will strengthen as it moves ENE along
frontal boundary. During the overnight hours...weakened H5 low moves
to FL Panhandle by 06z while surface low gradually lifts to NE FL by
06z and SE GA by 12Z. This will focus rain thru sunrise across NE
third of CWA along and north of low/front. Most High-Res guidance
continue to show modest wrap around moisture behind low moving
onshore after midnight. So rain will continue, however intensity will
begin to taper off thru sunrise from locally heavy to moderate to
light from SW-NE. This reflected in model soundings which show
that lower level flow has shifted to NW by sunrise but PWATs remain
around 1 inch. Will go with 40-80% SW-NE POP gradient 00z-06z then
20-70% 06z-12z. Grounds will remain saturated across the CWA and
will be monitored for any localized flooding. With nearly stacked
low...cant discount a slight chance of tstms south of there...mainly
SE Big Bend in eve. Expect lows from upper 40s SE AL/Panhandle to
mid-upper 50s SE Big Bend and adjacent GA counties.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]...IFR ceilings will plague the region until
mid-morning tomorrow. The rain will end later tonight as the Gulf
low moves northeast out of the region. Winds will shift to the
northwest late this evening.

&&

.Marine...
Surface low will move across the Apalachee Bay tonight with gusty
north winds overspreading the area in its wake through tomorrow.
Although much of the clouds and rain will be exiting the area from
west to east Saturday, winds and seas will remain up into Sunday.
A small craft advisory will remain in effect from tonight through
the day Saturday. Conditions will improve by Sunday morning into early
next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  70  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  70  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  80  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  60  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181321
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns Continue into this Evening...

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible mainly SE Big Bend and adjacent
Waters...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Mid morning analysis shows that the leading edge of mid/upper
trough continues to dig ESE across Cntrl Gulf region. Closed low
over LA. Low Strong jet extends from base of trough Newd to mid-
Atlc states while several shortwaves move across SE region. Lead
shortwave crossed early this morning leading to blowup of local
convection. Another potent shortwave across extreme E TX diving
down base of trough increasing divergence across Nrn Gulf of Mex
setting us up for next round. At surface...latest MSAS confirmed
by marine obs show that upper features have generated MCS low
south of Mobile and latest radar pix show it only meandering N/E
in last hour. Warm front extends Ewd across Cntrl FL. All this
providing excellent isentropic lift...and has strengthened MCS
yielding plume of moderate to heavy deep layer moisture moving
Newd towards CWA which will increase rainfall amount and
intensity.

Later today...TX shortwave will amplify SEWD helping to generate
closed H5 LOW. Guidance tracks MCS slowly Newd across Wrn FL
Panhandle early aftn then just south of Apalachicola during the late
aftn. Assocd warm front will likely reach I-10 by mid to late-aftn.
This would strengthen Sly flow...intensity moisture plume as it
overspreads CWA and further increase amount and intensity of rain as
low approaches. This would also place the axis of heaviest rain from
Wrn Panhandle thru SE AL and SW GA with the strongest forcing along
and just north of the warm front. General 1-2 inches 6 hr rainfall
totals (2 to 4 inch total) are expected but higher amounts are
likely along and just east of track...i.e. coastal counties from Bay
to Wakulla. The only possible curb would be a dry slot currently
seen on radar south of Panama City. But latest pix show little N/E
movement. With precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain
rates will occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood
Watch up and unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global
model consensus brings H5 low to FL Panhandle while surface low
moves Newd into NE FL by 06z Sat. So wrap around rain will
continue especially across NE third of CWA. Clouds and rain will
keep max temps well below normal for portions of CWA...near 60
north to mid 70s SE Big Bend.

As of 9 AM EDT...rainfall totals were already 2-3 inches across
Panhandle and 1-2 inches across the Big Bend...SE AL and SW/S/Cntrl
GA. This included Chipley 3.03...Mossy Head 2.80 and Alpine Heights
2.65 in Walton County...Parker (Bay) 2.53...Panama City 2.43...
Geneva AL 2.35...DeFuniak Springs 2.29...Tallahassee AP...1.70 and
Apalachicola 1.47 inches.

Although rain and flooding continues to be the main issue...the
threat of strong to isold severe storms is non-zero across mainly
Taylor and Dixie counties and adjacent waters. Although mid/upper
lapse rates are expected to remain weak...limiting destabilization...
Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-1000
J/kg range this afternoon in the warm sector with veered low level
winds around Cross City and Perry. Given the expected 0-1 km bulk
shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in that area, it`s reasonable
to be concerned about isolated, low-topped supercells- with
damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a brief tornado especially if
GFS with its more Nrn track (rather then ECMWF) ends up verifying.
Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be elevated enough to
limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds are strong
enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

Other concerns to be monitored include possible coastal flooding this
afternoon at high tide across coastal Big Bend, high surf advisories
and high rip current risk for Walton thru Franklin coasts and gale
force winds or gusts for the nearshore panhandle waters and all the
offshore waters.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across the forecast area today and tonight. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches are expected to be fairly common, with isolated higher
amounts perhaps up to 6 to 8 inches possible. In general, the
rivers most likely to flood and have higher impacts will be in the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows are already somewhat
elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls, there should also be
other flooding on smaller streams and creeks, as well as areas of
high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [645 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.


.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.


.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...CJM








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181045
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather wavy, east-west
oriented frontal boundary from central FL through the Gulf of
Mexico. There was no closed surface low yet, but all of the global
models insist that one will form in the northern Gulf by around
dawn. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an approaching potent
trough over TX, though a preceding short wave trough appeared to be
translating northeastward over the FL Panhandle. It`s this initial
short wave trough that is associated with the massive blowup of deep
moist convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning.
Widespread rain from these MCSs has spread over most of our forecast
area, and we expect this will continue throughout the day. With
precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain rates will
occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood Watch up and
unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global model consensus
brings the surface low near Apalachicola by late afternoon.

Although there will be a lot of rain and clouds today, the mean of
the Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-
1000 J/kg range this afternoon around Cross City and Perry. Given
the expected 0-1 km bulk shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in
that area, it`s reasonable to be concerned about isolated,
low-topped supercells- with damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a
brief tornado. Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be
elevated enough to limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds
are strong enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 180831
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
431 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather wavy, east-west
oriented frontal boundary from central FL through the Gulf of
Mexico. There was no closed surface low yet, but all of the global
models insist that one will form in the northern Gulf by around
dawn. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an approaching potent
trough over TX, though a preceding short wave trough appeared to be
translating northeastward over the FL Panhandle. It`s this initial
short wave trough that is associated with the massive blowup of deep
moist convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning.
Widespread rain from these MCSs has spread over most of our forecast
area, and we expect this will continue throughout the day. With
precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain rates will
occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood Watch up and
unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global model consensus
brings the surface low near Apalachicola by late afternoon.

Although there will be a lot of rain and clouds today, the mean of
the Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-
1000 J/kg range this afternoon around Cross City and Perry. Given
the expected 0-1 km bulk shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in
that area, it`s reasonable to be concerned about isolated,
low-topped supercells- with damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a
brief tornado. Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be
elevated enough to limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds
are strong enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180139
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast
overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Significant storm system is taking shape this evening over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expansive area of deep
convection has blossomed over the central Gulf in association with
the approaching shortwave. At the same time, intensifying region
of isentropic lift is generating an expanding rain shield across the
northeastern Gulf. Even further east, weaker isentropic lift
coupled with some elevated instability has allowed for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop over Apalachee Bay into the
central Big Bend this evening, a few hours earlier than previously
forecast.

As the upper shortwave continues to move east overnight, low
pressure will deepen over the central Gulf, with increasing
southerly flow riding up and over the strong surface ridge parked
along the eastern seaboard. This will expand the region of strong
isentropic lift northward into the Panhandle and Big Bend
producing a large expanse of moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall.

Have increased the PoPs this evening for coastal areas to account
for the earlier onset of rainfall. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track through the remainder of the night. Rainfall totals by
sunrise will likely exceed 1 inch for coastal areas of the
Panhandle.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] Expect MVFR conditions across the area by
04z as ceilings continue to lower in advance of the approaching
storm system. Before sunrise, expect widespread heavy rain to
overspread the area with IFR conditions likely both due low
visibilities and ceilings. Conditions will trend back toward MVFR
late in the afternoon, especially at ECP/DHN as the heavier rain
starts to move away from those terminals after 20z.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas are on the increase this evening as developing low
pressure over the central Gulf works to tighten the gradient over
the coastal waters. Buoy south of Panama City recently reported 27
knot sustained winds with gust to 31 knots and 10 foot seas. With
this observation, along with general increase in forecast winds
from much of the guidance, have bumped the winds up a few knots
for the remainder of the overnight hours into Friday morning. This
necessitates expanding the Gale Warning to the eastern offshore
waters, and extending the Small Craft Advisory over the nearshore
Big Bend waters.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The first half of this period will be marked by heavy rain and
likely flooding. Aloft...Fri morning begins highly amplified with
ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc. In between...exists an
upper trough the result of srn/Nrn stream merging with a low over
Wrn Gulf. During the day...a strong shortwave begins to cutoff from
Nrn stream flow and develops a low that closes over Srn AL by
sundown. This will induce significant divergent flow over Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Low then advances Ewd to Ern seaboard Sat aftn and then
offshore at night with upper ridging building into the forecast area
overnight.

At surface...In response to above upper trough/low...assocd low had
already developed in Wrn Gulf with warm front ESE across Cntrl FL.
By sunrise Fri...intensifying closed low lifts Newd to around 100
miles south of Pensacola with front lifting further Nwd. Under
cutoff upper low...surface reflection slows down and with assocd
large stratiform shield of moderate to heavy rain begins to
strengthen and inch Newd. By sundown...upper low and surface
reflection phase and become vertically stacked and along with
lifting warm front quasi-stnry across FL Big Bend. Fortunately...
another SRN stream anomaly will be propagating EWD into the Wrn
Gulf overnight Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and
allowing the surface low to gradually drift away from land into the
Wrn Atlc by mid-morning Saturday. In its wake a ridge will
build in.

The forecast will focus on the combination of upper/lower features
and their impact on heavy rain and flooding. Models have come into
better agreement with the quicker GFS still a 6hr outlier. Area
soundings during Fri shows totally saturated nearly uni-directional
SSW profiles with PWATs around 1.8 inches. They are in agreement
that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local area Fri into
Fri eve, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts. At this time it appears as though 3 to 4 inches
of rain will be common across SE AL, south Georgia, and north FL.
With average amounts that high, confidence is increasing that
isolated locations could pick up anywhere between 4-6 inches. That
being said, this rainfall will likely fall over an extended period
of time resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, a more general Flood Watch remains in effect as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-zero
and will be highest near rivers currently running at high levels and
in our more urban locations.

With regard to strong to severe weather...guidance with better
chance that with previous runs. On the one hand...extensive cloud
shield should  weak lapse rates aloft and we will have saturated
soundings. However any diurnal heating should have modest impact on
cape. Also approaching low should yield and increase in low and deep
layer shear. so although overall risk not high...cant discount
strong to an even isold severe storm if all ingredient come
together. The focus will be across mainly the extreme SE Big Bend of
Florida and adjacent waters in the afternoon. 100% chance of rain.
Under cloudy and rainy skies...high temps will struggle to reach 60
across much of SE AL and Srn Ga with areas of SE Big Bend reaching
to around 70.

High Risk of Rip Currents from Walton to Franklin Counties in effect
through Fri Eve. Possible coastal flooding issues will be addressed
tonight.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished, though
wrap around light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Will go
with 30-80% SW-NE POP gradient. A 20-40% chance of rain remains for
Ern counties Sat morning but areas should be rain free by eve.
Expect lows Fri night from near 50 Nrn tier GA counties to near 60
SE Big Bend..and in the mid 50s everywhere Sat night. Highs Sat will
range from low-mid 70s in relatively cloud free west to mid 60s over
cloudy NE Tier GA counties closest to departing low.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
By Sunday, upper and surface ridge build into the region. By Monday
night...next weak trough and shortwave moves into Gulf region with
weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low well to our NW
brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating back Nwd on
Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold thunderstorms
to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by drying trend.
Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps will shows a
gradual warming trend. Inland highs Sun in the mid to upper 70s will
rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows Sun night in the low
to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low 60s.


.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.


.Hydrology...
We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  65  52  70  53 /  90 100  60  30  10
Panama City   60  65  55  73  57 / 100 100  40  10  10
Dothan        55  60  51  72  52 / 100 100  60  30  10
Albany        54  60  50  68  52 /  80 100  70  40  10
Valdosta      57  66  53  65  53 /  60 100  70  40  20
Cross City    62  73  59  69  53 /  60 100  60  30  20
Apalachicola  62  66  55  71  58 /  90 100  40  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday through late Friday
     night for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS










000
FXUS62 KTAE 171858
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The heavy rainfall event is still on track to begin late tonight as
an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf along an enhanced
low-level baroclinic zone. There is already evidence of this
occurring as a large area of thunderstorms has developed today over
the western Gulf as a potent southern stream disturbance ejects out
of northern Mexico. A large area of stratiform rain is expected to
overspread the western portions of the area tonight north of the
surface low track, some of which could become heavy late tonight
over the western areas. However, the vast majority of the heavy rain
will hold off until during the day on Friday. PoPs will be low to
start the night and then trend significantly higher as the night
progresses.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The first half of this period will be marked by heavy rain and
likely flooding. Aloft...Fri morning begins highly amplified with
ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc. In between...exists an
upper trough the result of srn/Nrn stream merging with a low over
Wrn Gulf. During the day...a strong shortwave begins to cutoff from
Nrn stream flow and develops a low that closes over Srn AL by
sundown. This will induce significant divergent flow over Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Low then advances Ewd to Ern seaboard Sat aftn and then
offshore at night with upper ridging building into the forecast area
overnight.

At surface...In response to above upper trough/low...assocd low had
already developed in Wrn Gulf with warm front ESE across Cntrl FL.
By sunrise Fri...intensifying closed low lifts Newd to around 100
miles south of Pensacola with front lifting further Nwd. Under
cutoff upper low...surface reflection slows down and with assocd
large stratiform shield of moderate to heavy rain begins to
strengthen and inch Newd. By sundown...upper low and surface
reflection phase and become vertically stacked and along with
lifting warm front quasi-stnry across FL Big Bend. Fortunately...
another SRN stream anomaly will be propagating EWD into the Wrn
Gulf overnight Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and
allowing the surface low to gradually drift away from land into the
Wrn Atlc by mid-morning Saturday. In its wake a ridge will
build in.

The forecast will focus on the combination of upper/lower features
and their impact on heavy rain and flooding. Models have come into
better agreement with the quicker GFS still a 6hr outlier. Area
soundings during Fri shows totally saturated nearly uni-directional
SSW profiles with PWATs around 1.8 inches. They are in agreement
that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local area Fri into
Fri eve, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts. At this time it appears as though 3 to 4 inches
of rain will be common across SE AL, south Georgia, and north FL.
With average amounts that high, confidence is increasing that
isolated locations could pick up anywhere between 4-6 inches. That
being said, this rainfall will likely fall over an extended period
of time resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, a more general Flood Watch remains in effect as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-zero
and will be highest near rivers currently running at high levels and
in our more urban locations.

With regard to strong to severe weather...guidance with better
chance that with previous runs. On the one hand...extensive cloud
shield should  weak lapse rates aloft and we will have saturated
soundings. However any diurnal heating should have modest impact on
cape. Also approaching low should yield and increase in low and deep
layer shear. so although overall risk not high...cant discount
strong to an even isold severe storm if all ingredient come
together. The focus will be across mainly the extreme SE Big Bend of
Florida and adjacent waters in the afternoon. 100% chance of rain.
Under cloudy and rainy skies...high temps will struggle to reach 60
across much of SE AL and Srn Ga with areas of SE Big Bend reaching
to around 70.

High Risk of Rip Currents from Walton to Franklin Counties in effect
through Fri Eve. Possible coastal flooding issues will be addressed
tonight.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished, though
wrap around light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Will go
with 30-80% SW-NE POP gradient. A 20-40% chance of rain remains for
Ern counties Sat morning but areas should be rain free by eve.
Expect lows Fri night from near 50 Nrn tier GA counties to near 60
SE Big Bend..and in the mid 50s everywhere Sat night. Highs Sat will
range from low-mid 70s in relatively cloud free west to mid 60s over
cloudy NE Tier GA counties closest to departing low.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
By Sunday, upper and surface ridge build into the region. By Monday
night...next weak trough and shortwave moves into Gulf region with
weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low well to our NW
brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating back Nwd on
Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold thunderstorms
to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by drying trend.
Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps will shows a
gradual warming trend. Inland highs Sun in the mid to upper 70s will
rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows Sun night in the low
to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Conditions will gradually deteriorate
through the period as an area of low pressure develops in the
Gulf. MVFR ceilings are expected to lower to IFR later tonight
with rain spreading from south to north from late tonight through
the day on Friday. Rain may be heavy at times during the day
Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for the
northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching down
the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low will
near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday for
waters west of Apalachicola. Latest guidance shows increasing
confidence in this so gale watch was upgraded to a warning for Wrn
waters. To the east Advisory conditions will likely prevail through
the passage of the low pressure. The possible gale conditions will
subside by Friday night, with advisory conditions diminishing by
Saturday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.

&&

.Hydrology...
We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  65  52  70  53 /  90 100  60  30  10
Panama City   60  65  55  73  57 / 100 100  40  10  10
Dothan        55  60  51  72  52 / 100 100  60  30  10
Albany        54  60  50  68  52 /  80 100  70  40  10
Valdosta      57  66  53  65  53 /  60 100  70  40  20
Cross City    62  73  59  69  53 /  60 100  60  30  20
Apalachicola  62  66  55  71  58 /  90 100  40  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday through late Friday
     night for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS










000
FXUS62 KTAE 171314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely on Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12z KTAE sounding this morning reveals that a dry airmass
remains in place, although some increase in mid-level moisture was
noted compared to the previous sounding. Overall, it should be
mainly dry today with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching
Gulf low. Isolated light showers could develop towards the end of
the day close to the coast. Only made a few minor changes to the
PoPs from the previous forecast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] MVFR ceilings will overspread the aerodrome
from south to north and remain in place for most of the day.
Exceptions include VFR ceilings AOB 4 kft at DHN and ABY during
the afternoon and early evening hours. IFR will set in with the
commencement of a steady rain which will overspread the region
from southwest to northeast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [430 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

The entire short range forecast will revolve around a Gulf low
forecast to bring heavy rain and flooding throughout the Tri-State
region. The good news from a forecast standpoint is that models
are coming into a better consensus regarding the track and
intensity of the low; the bad news is that our confidence is
increasing that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local
area, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts.

By tonight, an elongated southern stream +PV anomaly will have
merged with a northern stream anomaly, consolidated and
strengthened across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. As this feature moves over an enhanced low-level
baroclinic zone across the northeast Gulf, surface cyclogenesis
will begin. By early Friday morning, a closed circulation will
have formed just south of New Orleans, with a large stratiform
rain shield spreading across the northern Gulf. As the surface low
intensifies under the large area of stratiform rain, so too will
the upper level anomaly, though it will begin to cutoff from the
northern stream flow as -PV advection occurs aloft atop the large
rain shield. As the upper anomaly strengthens and cuts-off through
the first part of the day Friday, the forward propagation of the
surface low will slow, with the system becoming more vertically
stacked by Friday night. Luckily, another southern stream anomaly
will be propagating eastward into the western Gulf overnight
Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and allowing the
system across the Southeast to gradually drift away from land into
the western Atlantic by mid-morning Saturday.

A very moist maritime tropical airmass will be in place across the
Tri-State region on Friday with PWAT values nearing 2 inches
across north Florida. That is approaching +3 standard deviations
above the norm. Further, synoptic ascent will be maximized locally
with the proximity of the surface low and the deep layer ascent
provided by the split flow regime. This will result in widespread
heavy rainfall nearly all day on Friday. At this time it appears
as though 3 inches of rain will be common across southeast
Alabama, south Georgia, and north Florida. With average amounts
that high, confidence is increasing that isolated locations could
pick up anywhere between 3-6 inches. That being said, this
rainfall will likely fall over an extended period of time
resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, have opted for a more general Flood Watch as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-
zero and will be highest near rivers currently running at high
levels and in our more urban locations.

Severe weather is not anticipated with this system, though a few
thunderstorms may be possible across the extreme southeast Big
Bend of Florida on Friday afternoon.

One last thing to mention is that afternoon "highs" will be quite
low across most areas on Friday with prolonged rain and
cloudiness. Portions of south Georgia and southeast Alabama will
struggle to reach 60 degrees while most other locations will top
out in the middle 60s.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished,
though light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Most
areas should be rain free by Saturday afternoon, possibly Saturday
evening closer to the Suwannee River Valley.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

By Sunday, slight ridging will begin to settle in the area allowing
for a break from precipitation.  The next chance of rain occurs
Tuesday when the flow will become more zonal and a shortwave to the
north of our area will bring a slight chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern counties.  Throughout the entire period,
temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s.


.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for
the northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching
down the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low
will near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday
for waters west of Apalachicola. To the east Advisory conditions
will likely prevail through the passage of the low pressure. The
possible gale conditions will subside by Friday night, with
advisory conditions diminishing by Saturday evening.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.


.Hydrology...

Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle on Tuesday resulted in sharp
rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage crested about 2 ft
above moderate flood stage. Only minor rises occurred on the
Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. Most of
the area rivers have crested and are falling slowly, but steadily.
More heavy rain is expected Friday. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Florida Big Bend region.
Isolated higher totals are possible. This will reverse the
aforementioned recessions and likely return some rivers to flood
that had dropped below in the interim. Also, stages continue to
steadily rise on the Suwannee River and flooding is expected early
next work week.

As rain rates should be more gradual with this system than the last,
and with the above rainfall totals expected to fall over 12-24
hours, the flooding threat with this next round of rain should be of
the areal/river variety. The flash flooding threat should be lower.
In other words, areas of existing high water or flooding may
worsen... and areas of high water could also develop in places like
fields or low-lying areas. River flooding will also be possible,
particularly in rivers around the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay
region.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below):

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  56  65  52  70 /  10  90 100  60  30
Panama City   72  57  65  55  73 /  10  90 100  40  10
Dothan        71  52  60  51  73 /   0  90 100  50  30
Albany        70  52  59  50  68 /   0  80 100  60  30
Valdosta      72  56  66  52  65 /   0  70 100  60  30
Cross City    75  62  73  59  69 /  10  70  90  50  20
Apalachicola  70  61  67  55  71 /  20  90 100  40  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS/HELLER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 170830
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely on Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Water vapor imagery and model analysis indicate a broad upper level
trough over much of the CONUS this morning with a short wave moving
from the Southern Rockies out into the Southern Plains. Surface
analysis shows high pressure centered over New England ridging
southwestward to the northern Gulf of Mexico with a front stalled
over the southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery
indicates low clouds encroaching on the forecast area from the east
and south. This trend is forecast to continue through the day as
isentropic ascent on the 295-300K surfaces steadily increases and
pressure falls commence in the central Gulf as the upstream short
wave approaches form the northwest. PoPs will be confined to our FL
zones this afternoon and will mainly be in the slight chance
category. Any precipitation that falls will be in the form of light
stratiform rain. Despite the increase in cloud cover, temps will be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from the
upper 60s north to mid 70s southeast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

The entire short range forecast will revolve around a Gulf low
forecast to bring heavy rain and flooding throughout the Tri-State
region. The good news from a forecast standpoint is that models
are coming into a better consensus regarding the track and
intensity of the low; the bad news is that our confidence is
increasing that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local
area, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts.

By tonight, an elongated southern stream +PV anomaly will have
merged with a northern stream anomaly, consolidated and
strengthened across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. As this feature moves over an enhanced low-level
baroclinic zone across the northeast Gulf, surface cyclogenesis
will begin. By early Friday morning, a closed circulation will
have formed just south of New Orleans, with a large stratiform
rain shield spreading across the northern Gulf. As the surface low
intensifies under the large area of stratiform rain, so too will
the upper level anomaly, though it will begin to cutoff from the
northern stream flow as -PV advection occurs aloft atop the large
rain shield. As the upper anomaly strengthens and cuts-off through
the first part of the day Friday, the forward propagation of the
surface low will slow, with the system becoming more vertically
stacked by Friday night. Luckily, another southern stream anomaly
will be propagating eastward into the western Gulf overnight
Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and allowing the
system across the Southeast to gradually drift away from land into
the western Atlantic by mid-morning Saturday.

A very moist maritime tropical airmass will be in place across the
Tri-State region on Friday with PWAT values nearing 2 inches
across north Florida. That is approaching +3 standard deviations
above the norm. Further, synoptic ascent will be maximized locally
with the proximity of the surface low and the deep layer ascent
provided by the split flow regime. This will result in widespread
heavy rainfall nearly all day on Friday. At this time it appears
as though 3 inches of rain will be common across southeast
Alabama, south Georgia, and north Florida. With average amounts
that high, confidence is increasing that isolated locations could
pick up anywhere between 3-6 inches. That being said, this
rainfall will likely fall over an extended period of time
resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, have opted for a more general Flood Watch as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-
zero and will be highest near rivers currently running at high
levels and in our more urban locations.

Severe weather is not anticipated with this system, though a few
thunderstorms may be possible across the extreme southeast Big
Bend of Florida on Friday afternoon.

One last thing to mention is that afternoon "highs" will be quite
low across most areas on Friday with prolonged rain and
cloudiness. Portions of south Georgia and southeast Alabama will
struggle to reach 60 degrees while most other locations will top
out in the middle 60s.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished,
though light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Most
areas should be rain free by Saturday afternoon, possibly Saturday
evening closer to the Suwannee River Valley.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

By Sunday, slight ridging will begin to settle in the area allowing
for a break from precipitation.  The next chance of rain occurs
Tuesday when the flow will become more zonal and a shortwave to the
north of our area will bring a slight chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern counties.  Throughout the entire period,
temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]

MVFR ceilings will overspread the aerodrome from southeast to
northwest during the 08-12z time frame and then remain in place
for the remainder of the period. Exceptions include VFR ceilings
AOB 4 kft at DHN and ABY during the afternoon and early evening
hours and IFR possibly setting in toward the end of the period at
ECP with the commencement of a steady rain.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for
the northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching
down the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low
will near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday
for waters west of Apalachicola. To the east Advisory conditions
will likely prevail through the passage of the low pressure. The
possible gale conditions will subside by Friday night, with
advisory conditions diminishing by Saturday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.

&&

.Hydrology...

Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle on Tuesday resulted in sharp
rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage crested about 2 ft
above moderate flood stage. Only minor rises occurred on the
Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. Most of
the area rivers have crested and are falling slowly, but steadily.
More heavy rain is expected Friday. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Florida Big Bend region.
Isolated higher totals are possible. This will reverse the
aforementioned recessions and likely return some rivers to flood
that had dropped below in the interim. Also, stages continue to
steadily rise on the Suwannee River and flooding is expected early
next work week.

As rain rates should be more gradual with this system than the last,
and with the above rainfall totals expected to fall over 12-24
hours, the flooding threat with this next round of rain should be of
the areal/river variety. The flash flooding threat should be lower.
In other words, areas of existing high water or flooding may
worsen... and areas of high water could also develop in places like
fields or low-lying areas. River flooding will also be possible,
particularly in rivers around the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay
region.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below):

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  56  65  52  70 /  20  90 100  60  30
Panama City   72  57  65  55  73 /  20  90 100  40  10
Dothan        71  52  60  51  73 /  10  90 100  50  30
Albany        70  52  59  50  68 /  10  80 100  60  30
Valdosta      72  56  66  52  65 /  10  70 100  60  30
Cross City    75  62  73  59  69 /  20  70  90  50  20
Apalachicola  70  61  67  55  71 /  30  90 100  40  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS/HELLER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 170127
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Strong surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard will
continue to nose into the region overnight, tightening the
pressure gradient. This will keep east to northeasterly winds
elevated through the overnight hours. Low level moisture will
gradually increase with the low-level flow. However, do not
anticipate enough moisture for any precip tonight. Have removed
any mention of light rain or sprinkles from land areas overnight.
Clouds should also be on the increase overnight as low-level
moisture increases, especially across the eastern Big Bend and
south central Georgia. Suspect this will keep temperatures a
little higher than previously forecast, and have adjust overnight
lows to reflect this.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] MVFR CIGS will impact VLD, TLH, ECP tonight.
Expect DHN and ABY to see those CIGS move in by tomorrow morning.
Winds will remain easterly around 10 kts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [355 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday through Saturday]...

Much of the focus in the short term period was centered around the
evolution of a Gulf low from Thursday Night onward, and the amount
of rain that it will produce in our area. Numerical models have
begun to converge on a similar solution as the digging shortwaves
that will eventually lead to surface cyclogenesis are finally
being sampled by the upper air network over the western US.
Generally speaking, a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the mid-
upper levels will dig ESE to around 90W longitude by 00z Friday.
This will place the base of the shortwave trough and RFQ of a
strengthening upper level jet streak over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico, setting the stage for a surface low to develop. The low
should then move in the general direction of the I-4 corridor in
the Florida Peninsula by Saturday morning.

On Thursday and into Thursday evening, low-level isentropic ascent
will gradually increase, paired with a trend for higher RH and
lower condensation pressure deficits. This should lead to the
development of scattered showers in that time period, and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm over the southern part of the area.

By late Thursday Night and early Friday, cyclogenesis over the
Gulf will be well underway. Model forecast cross sections NE of
the low from DHN-TPA show increasing mid-level frontogenesis over
our forecast area around 18z Friday. There is good model agreement
showing the development of a band of heavy rain around that time,
especially over the southeastern half of our forecast area.
Overall, the instability levels seem to be very limited so this
looks to be more of a general rain event forced by a combination
of isentropic ascent and mid-level FGEN. With PWATs expected to be
around 1.6-1.7 inches in the southeast part of our area (around +2
standard deviations above normal) and very strong forcing for
ascent, the ingredients are there for heavy rainfall. Given the
lack of instability and the long duration of rain (12-24 hours),
it seems like river and areal flooding threats would be higher in
this event than flash flooding. QPF totals are relatively close to
a model consensus and range from 2-4 inches over much of the
Florida Big Bend region and adjacent far southern Georgia, to
around 1 inch in southeast Alabama. The 16Apr.12z runs of the
ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, CMC, and NAM all show a band of 3-4 inches of
rainfall across the southeast part of our area. We did not issue a
Flood Watch yet, but one could become necessary overnight if model
consensus continues to grow around this particular solution.


.Long Term [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

By Sunday, slight ridging will begin to settle in the area allowing
for a break from precipitation.  The next chance of rain occurs
Tuesday when the flow will become more zonal and a shortwave to the
north of our area will bring a slight chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern counties.  Throughout the entire period,
temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s.


.Marine...

After a brief break in the Advisory level conditions this afternoon,
winds and seas will be back on the increase tonight out of the east
to northeast as the pressure pattern tightens once again. Therefore,
issued a new Small Craft Advisory which will begin at 8 pm EDT this
evening for the easternmost legs, and at 2 am EDT overnight for the
rest of the marine area. This Advisory will remain in effect until 8
am EDT Friday morning, but will very likely need to be extended for
some time into the upcoming weekend, as a new low pressure system
develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico.


.Fire Weather...

After the brief shot of much cooler and drier air over the region
today, low level moisture will quickly be on the increase once again
on Thursday and Friday. A developing low pressure system in the Gulf
of Mexico will then lead to yet another batch of rain over the area
on Friday and into the upcoming weekend. These inclement conditions
will ensure no fire weather concerns during the next several days
across the Tri-state area.


.Hydrology...

Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle yesterday resulted in sharp
rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage is cresting about
two feet above moderate flood stage. Only minor rises occurred on
the Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. Most of
the area rivers have crested and are falling steadily, except for
the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce, which is currently at its
crest but will remain in moderate flood stage until Sunday. More
rain is expected Friday. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible
with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Florida Big Bend region.
Isolated areas may see higher totals.

As rain rates should be more gradual, with the above rainfall
totals expected to fall over 12-24 hours, the flooding threat with
this next round of rain should be of the areal/river variety.
The flash flooding threat should be lower. In other words, areas
of existing high water or flooding may worsen... and areas of
high water could also develop in places like fields or low-lying
areas. River flooding will also be possible - particularly in
rivers around the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay region.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below):
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  70  61  67  55 /  10  30  70  80  80
Panama City   53  71  63  67  58 /  10  30  80  80  60
Dothan        46  68  57  65  53 /   0  10  50  60  50
Albany        47  70  55  66  52 /   0  10  50  70  50
Valdosta      50  70  59  67  56 /  10  20  60  80  80
Cross City    57  74  63  73  57 /  10  30  60  80  80
Apalachicola  56  70  65  68  60 /  10  30  80  80  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/HELLER
AVIATION...GODSEY/WALSH
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/LAMERS









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities