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000
FXUS62 KTAE 310717
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region today,
with pwats running well over 2 inches. A surface front will approach
from the northwest, but stall before moving into the forecast area.
The combination of afternoon heating, the seabreeze, and the frontal
boundary should generate plenty of convection this afternoon with
likely PoPs across most of the region. Expect activity to begin
earlier in the day across the Florida Big Bend with increasing
southwesterly low-level flow. Inland areas will see activity
increase by mid to late afternoon.

High temperatures will reflect the expect onset of precip, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s in the Big Bend to the mid 90s
across inland areas of GA/AL.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A frontal zone off the Atlantic Coast and extending across the
Florida Peninsula will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. Most of the
model guidance shows the wet pattern likely to continue through
the short term period, though the NAM suggests some drier air
could at least get into our northwestern counties by Sunday.

With a very moist airmass in place, and generally weak steering
flow, storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for minor flooding, particularly across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, where rain chances are highest. High temperatures
won`t be as hot as the past few days, given all the convection.
Highs in the mid 90s are expected across the northwestern portion
of our area, tapering down into the lower 90s in the Florida Big
Bend.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal zone will dissipate by Tuesday as
the subtropical ridge builds back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf. This should result in a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern with mainly
scattered afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 90s through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Plentiful low level moisture will help to
produce occasional MVFR conditions at terminals early this morning.
Some brief IFR cigs are possible at KTLH. VFR conditions after
sunrise will give way to showers and thunderstorms once again this
afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.Marine...
Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the
weekend...with high rain chances both day and night through
Monday. Cautionary level winds will be possible beginning Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday evening. High pressure will
build back over the marine area by Monday resulting in lighter
winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range are possible over much
of the Southeast Florida Big Bend over the next couple of days
with isolated heavier totals possible. Lighter amounts are
expected across the northwestern zones. While these amounts will
result in some modest rises on the smaller creeks and streams
across the Florida Big Bend, river flooding is not expected.
However, isolated urban flooding is possible, especially with the
slower moving storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  76  93  74  93 /  60  40  60  50  50
Panama City   88  77  88  77  90 /  50  40  60  40  40
Dothan        93  74  95  72  94 /  60  40  40  20  30
Albany        94  75  95  73  94 /  50  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      90  75  93  74  93 /  60  40  70  40  50
Cross City    88  75  88  76  90 /  60  50  80  50  70
Apalachicola  88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  70  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 310717
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region today,
with pwats running well over 2 inches. A surface front will approach
from the northwest, but stall before moving into the forecast area.
The combination of afternoon heating, the seabreeze, and the frontal
boundary should generate plenty of convection this afternoon with
likely PoPs across most of the region. Expect activity to begin
earlier in the day across the Florida Big Bend with increasing
southwesterly low-level flow. Inland areas will see activity
increase by mid to late afternoon.

High temperatures will reflect the expect onset of precip, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s in the Big Bend to the mid 90s
across inland areas of GA/AL.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A frontal zone off the Atlantic Coast and extending across the
Florida Peninsula will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. Most of the
model guidance shows the wet pattern likely to continue through
the short term period, though the NAM suggests some drier air
could at least get into our northwestern counties by Sunday.

With a very moist airmass in place, and generally weak steering
flow, storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for minor flooding, particularly across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, where rain chances are highest. High temperatures
won`t be as hot as the past few days, given all the convection.
Highs in the mid 90s are expected across the northwestern portion
of our area, tapering down into the lower 90s in the Florida Big
Bend.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal zone will dissipate by Tuesday as
the subtropical ridge builds back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf. This should result in a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern with mainly
scattered afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 90s through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Plentiful low level moisture will help to
produce occasional MVFR conditions at terminals early this morning.
Some brief IFR cigs are possible at KTLH. VFR conditions after
sunrise will give way to showers and thunderstorms once again this
afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.Marine...
Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the
weekend...with high rain chances both day and night through
Monday. Cautionary level winds will be possible beginning Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday evening. High pressure will
build back over the marine area by Monday resulting in lighter
winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range are possible over much
of the Southeast Florida Big Bend over the next couple of days
with isolated heavier totals possible. Lighter amounts are
expected across the northwestern zones. While these amounts will
result in some modest rises on the smaller creeks and streams
across the Florida Big Bend, river flooding is not expected.
However, isolated urban flooding is possible, especially with the
slower moving storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  76  93  74  93 /  60  40  60  50  50
Panama City   88  77  88  77  90 /  50  40  60  40  40
Dothan        93  74  95  72  94 /  60  40  40  20  30
Albany        94  75  95  73  94 /  50  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      90  75  93  74  93 /  60  40  70  40  50
Cross City    88  75  88  76  90 /  60  50  80  50  70
Apalachicola  88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  70  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 310717
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region today,
with pwats running well over 2 inches. A surface front will approach
from the northwest, but stall before moving into the forecast area.
The combination of afternoon heating, the seabreeze, and the frontal
boundary should generate plenty of convection this afternoon with
likely PoPs across most of the region. Expect activity to begin
earlier in the day across the Florida Big Bend with increasing
southwesterly low-level flow. Inland areas will see activity
increase by mid to late afternoon.

High temperatures will reflect the expect onset of precip, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s in the Big Bend to the mid 90s
across inland areas of GA/AL.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A frontal zone off the Atlantic Coast and extending across the
Florida Peninsula will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. Most of the
model guidance shows the wet pattern likely to continue through
the short term period, though the NAM suggests some drier air
could at least get into our northwestern counties by Sunday.

With a very moist airmass in place, and generally weak steering
flow, storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for minor flooding, particularly across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, where rain chances are highest. High temperatures
won`t be as hot as the past few days, given all the convection.
Highs in the mid 90s are expected across the northwestern portion
of our area, tapering down into the lower 90s in the Florida Big
Bend.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal zone will dissipate by Tuesday as
the subtropical ridge builds back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf. This should result in a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern with mainly
scattered afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 90s through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Plentiful low level moisture will help to
produce occasional MVFR conditions at terminals early this morning.
Some brief IFR cigs are possible at KTLH. VFR conditions after
sunrise will give way to showers and thunderstorms once again this
afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.Marine...
Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the
weekend...with high rain chances both day and night through
Monday. Cautionary level winds will be possible beginning Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday evening. High pressure will
build back over the marine area by Monday resulting in lighter
winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range are possible over much
of the Southeast Florida Big Bend over the next couple of days
with isolated heavier totals possible. Lighter amounts are
expected across the northwestern zones. While these amounts will
result in some modest rises on the smaller creeks and streams
across the Florida Big Bend, river flooding is not expected.
However, isolated urban flooding is possible, especially with the
slower moving storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  76  93  74  93 /  60  40  60  50  50
Panama City   88  77  88  77  90 /  50  40  60  40  40
Dothan        93  74  95  72  94 /  60  40  40  20  30
Albany        94  75  95  73  94 /  50  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      90  75  93  74  93 /  60  40  70  40  50
Cross City    88  75  88  76  90 /  60  50  80  50  70
Apalachicola  88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  70  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 310717
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region today,
with pwats running well over 2 inches. A surface front will approach
from the northwest, but stall before moving into the forecast area.
The combination of afternoon heating, the seabreeze, and the frontal
boundary should generate plenty of convection this afternoon with
likely PoPs across most of the region. Expect activity to begin
earlier in the day across the Florida Big Bend with increasing
southwesterly low-level flow. Inland areas will see activity
increase by mid to late afternoon.

High temperatures will reflect the expect onset of precip, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s in the Big Bend to the mid 90s
across inland areas of GA/AL.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A frontal zone off the Atlantic Coast and extending across the
Florida Peninsula will continue to serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development over the next couple of days. Most of the
model guidance shows the wet pattern likely to continue through
the short term period, though the NAM suggests some drier air
could at least get into our northwestern counties by Sunday.

With a very moist airmass in place, and generally weak steering
flow, storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, with the
potential for minor flooding, particularly across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend, where rain chances are highest. High temperatures
won`t be as hot as the past few days, given all the convection.
Highs in the mid 90s are expected across the northwestern portion
of our area, tapering down into the lower 90s in the Florida Big
Bend.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Model guidance shows the frontal zone will dissipate by Tuesday as
the subtropical ridge builds back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf. This should result in a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern with mainly
scattered afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 90s through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Plentiful low level moisture will help to
produce occasional MVFR conditions at terminals early this morning.
Some brief IFR cigs are possible at KTLH. VFR conditions after
sunrise will give way to showers and thunderstorms once again this
afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.Marine...
Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the
weekend...with high rain chances both day and night through
Monday. Cautionary level winds will be possible beginning Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday evening. High pressure will
build back over the marine area by Monday resulting in lighter
winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range are possible over much
of the Southeast Florida Big Bend over the next couple of days
with isolated heavier totals possible. Lighter amounts are
expected across the northwestern zones. While these amounts will
result in some modest rises on the smaller creeks and streams
across the Florida Big Bend, river flooding is not expected.
However, isolated urban flooding is possible, especially with the
slower moving storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  76  93  74  93 /  60  40  60  50  50
Panama City   88  77  88  77  90 /  50  40  60  40  40
Dothan        93  74  95  72  94 /  60  40  40  20  30
Albany        94  75  95  73  94 /  50  40  40  20  30
Valdosta      90  75  93  74  93 /  60  40  70  40  50
Cross City    88  75  88  76  90 /  60  50  80  50  70
Apalachicola  88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  70  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 310108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Regional surface analysis shows a front draped along the Atlantic
coastline, then curving west-southwestward across central Georgia,
Alabama, and Mississippi and westward through the Arklatex. Outflow
boundaries from this front have been interacting with the north
Florida sea-breeze this afternoon and caused another active day of
convection across the area. Storms are finally settling down for the
evening, but heavy cloud cover over the area will mean another night
with warmer temperatures- only dropping to the mid-upper 70s, around
80s along the coastline. Light winds and high humidity will mean the
potential for development of patchy fog in the late night-early
morning hours in south-central Georgia, possibly dense fog if the
upper level cloud cover clears up.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] With light winds overnight and high humidity,
MVFR-IFR vsbys and cigs possible early Friday morning, particularly
in SE AL and SW GA where showers are lingering this evening. Vsbys
will improve after sunrise and cigs will slowly lift through mid-
morning before thunderstorms begin to develop, which may once again
bring reduced cigs/vsbys and gusty winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [326 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Friday begins with an upper ridge exiting the Southeast to the
west, and a broad trough covering the northern third of the
country, but also dipping down the eastern CONUS just short of the
Southeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped
northeast to southwest from the NC coast to the LA coast,
essentially bisecting the Southeast. Out ahead of the front
remains the broad surface low/trough that has been aiding in
convective development over the past few days. These features will
move very little through Saturday night.

PoPs will remain higher than typical for this time of year with
the two primary focus areas being the front (NW half of the area)
and the broad low pressure (SE half of the area). High PWATs
between 2-2.25" and deep warm cloud layers (12-15 kft) each day
would suggest the potential for heavy rain. In addition, although
there are small differences in the steering flow between models,
it is probable that steering flow may run parallel to each of the
forcing mechanisms making training and isolated urban flooding a
concern. The threat for severe weather remains low, with only
an isolated damaging wind potential likely attributed to water
loaded downdrafts.

Highs will still be able to reach at least the lower 90s, and
possibly middle 90s in a very moist boundary layer. Thus, heat
advisory conditions are not out of the question tomorrow, but for
now heat indices appear to top out just below criteria. Slightly
cooler temps on Saturday will likely preclude heat advisory
conditions.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the extending with the
persistent surface trough entrenched across the Southeast. PoPs
will remain above normal, with near to slightly below normal
afternoon highs.


.Marine...

Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the weekend,
with high rain chances both day and night over the next several
days. On and off cautionary level winds will be possible east of
Apalachicola beginning Friday and lasting through early next week.


.Fire Weather...

No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.


.Hydrology...

Five day estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is
likely along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
Elsewhere, 1.5 to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still
below action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast, river flooding is not expected; though isolated urban
flooding maybe possible in training or stationary storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  92  76  92  75 /  20  60  50  60  40
Panama City   79  89  78  88  78 /  20  60  50  50  40
Dothan        75  94  74  93  74 /  50  60  50  50  30
Albany        75  95  75  93  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      74  93  75  92  75 /  30  60  30  60  40
Cross City    75  90  75  89  76 /  20  60  60  60  60
Apalachicola  79  90  78  88  77 /  20  60  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 310108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Regional surface analysis shows a front draped along the Atlantic
coastline, then curving west-southwestward across central Georgia,
Alabama, and Mississippi and westward through the Arklatex. Outflow
boundaries from this front have been interacting with the north
Florida sea-breeze this afternoon and caused another active day of
convection across the area. Storms are finally settling down for the
evening, but heavy cloud cover over the area will mean another night
with warmer temperatures- only dropping to the mid-upper 70s, around
80s along the coastline. Light winds and high humidity will mean the
potential for development of patchy fog in the late night-early
morning hours in south-central Georgia, possibly dense fog if the
upper level cloud cover clears up.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] With light winds overnight and high humidity,
MVFR-IFR vsbys and cigs possible early Friday morning, particularly
in SE AL and SW GA where showers are lingering this evening. Vsbys
will improve after sunrise and cigs will slowly lift through mid-
morning before thunderstorms begin to develop, which may once again
bring reduced cigs/vsbys and gusty winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [326 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Friday begins with an upper ridge exiting the Southeast to the
west, and a broad trough covering the northern third of the
country, but also dipping down the eastern CONUS just short of the
Southeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped
northeast to southwest from the NC coast to the LA coast,
essentially bisecting the Southeast. Out ahead of the front
remains the broad surface low/trough that has been aiding in
convective development over the past few days. These features will
move very little through Saturday night.

PoPs will remain higher than typical for this time of year with
the two primary focus areas being the front (NW half of the area)
and the broad low pressure (SE half of the area). High PWATs
between 2-2.25" and deep warm cloud layers (12-15 kft) each day
would suggest the potential for heavy rain. In addition, although
there are small differences in the steering flow between models,
it is probable that steering flow may run parallel to each of the
forcing mechanisms making training and isolated urban flooding a
concern. The threat for severe weather remains low, with only
an isolated damaging wind potential likely attributed to water
loaded downdrafts.

Highs will still be able to reach at least the lower 90s, and
possibly middle 90s in a very moist boundary layer. Thus, heat
advisory conditions are not out of the question tomorrow, but for
now heat indices appear to top out just below criteria. Slightly
cooler temps on Saturday will likely preclude heat advisory
conditions.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the extending with the
persistent surface trough entrenched across the Southeast. PoPs
will remain above normal, with near to slightly below normal
afternoon highs.


.Marine...

Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the weekend,
with high rain chances both day and night over the next several
days. On and off cautionary level winds will be possible east of
Apalachicola beginning Friday and lasting through early next week.


.Fire Weather...

No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.


.Hydrology...

Five day estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is
likely along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
Elsewhere, 1.5 to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still
below action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast, river flooding is not expected; though isolated urban
flooding maybe possible in training or stationary storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  92  76  92  75 /  20  60  50  60  40
Panama City   79  89  78  88  78 /  20  60  50  50  40
Dothan        75  94  74  93  74 /  50  60  50  50  30
Albany        75  95  75  93  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      74  93  75  92  75 /  30  60  30  60  40
Cross City    75  90  75  89  76 /  20  60  60  60  60
Apalachicola  79  90  78  88  77 /  20  60  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301926
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convective development through 1830Z has closely mirrored the
forecasts of most of the convection-allowing models. Thus far,
storms have been focused on the Florida Big Bend sea breeze, and are
slowly propagating further inland, while isolated storms have been
observed elsewhere. The convective coverage should continue to
increase across the area as the afternoon progresses, with storms
likely to linger until the mid-to-late evening. Likely PoPs (60-70%)
have been maintained in all areas. With very high precipitable water
values (up to 2.4" near Gulf County on SPC mesoanalysis) and high
freeing levels, heavy rain rates in storms and locally heavy
rainfall appear likely this afternoon. A few storms could produce
strong-severe wind gusts, but the severe weather threat should
remain somewhat isolated.

Temperature trends today have also been close to expectations now
that the denser cloud cover from this morning has scattered out. A
few locations may see heat index readings reach around 110 degrees,
but most areas should top out in the in the 105-108 range. Lows
tonight look to be in the mid-70s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Friday begins with an upper ridge exiting the Southeast to the
west, and a broad trough covering the northern third of the
country, but also dipping down the eastern CONUS just short of the
Southeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped
northeast to southwest from the NC coast to the LA coast,
essentially bisecting the Southeast. Out ahead of the front
remains the broad surface low/trough that has been aiding in
convective development over the past few days. These features will
move very little through Saturday night.

PoPs will remain higher than typical for this time of year with
the two primary focus areas being the front (NW half of the area)
and the broad low pressure (SE half of the area). High PWATs
between 2-2.25" and deep warm cloud layers (12-15 kft) each day
would suggest the potential for heavy rain. In addition, although
there are small differences in the steering flow between models,
it is probable that steering flow may run parallel to each of the
forcing mechanisms making training and isolated urban flooding a
concern. The threat for severe weather remains low, with only
an isolated damaging wind potential likely attributed to water
loaded downdrafts.

Highs will still be able to reach at least the lower 90s, and
possibly middle 90s in a very moist boundary layer. Thus, heat
advisory conditions are not out of the question tomorrow, but for
now heat indices appear to top out just below criteria. Slightly
cooler temps on Saturday will likely preclude heat advisory
conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the extending with the
persistent surface trough entrenched across the Southeast. PoPs
will remain above normal, with near to slightly below normal
afternoon highs.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to affect the
region this afternoon and early this evening. Any of the terminals
could be affected by storms, which could bring brief gusty winds
and IFR visibilities in heavier downpours. Otherwise, primarily
VFR conditions are expected overall, although some brief MVFR
ceilings could occur early this afternoon. There is a chance for
some patchy fog overnight, but confidence is not sufficiently high
to put that in the TAFs yet.

&&

.Marine...

Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the weekend,
with high rain chances both day and night over the next several
days. On and off cautionary level winds will be possible east of
Apalachicola beginning Friday and lasting through early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...

Five day estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is
likely along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
Elsewhere, 1.5 to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still
below action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast, river flooding is not expected; though isolated urban
flooding maybe possible in training or stationary storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  92  76  92  75 /  40  60  50  60  40
Panama City   79  89  78  88  78 /  40  60  50  50  40
Dothan        75  94  74  93  74 /  40  60  50  50  30
Albany        75  95  75  93  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      74  93  75  92  75 /  30  60  30  60  40
Cross City    75  90  75  89  76 /  30  60  60  60  60
Apalachicola  79  90  78  88  77 /  40  60  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301926
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convective development through 1830Z has closely mirrored the
forecasts of most of the convection-allowing models. Thus far,
storms have been focused on the Florida Big Bend sea breeze, and are
slowly propagating further inland, while isolated storms have been
observed elsewhere. The convective coverage should continue to
increase across the area as the afternoon progresses, with storms
likely to linger until the mid-to-late evening. Likely PoPs (60-70%)
have been maintained in all areas. With very high precipitable water
values (up to 2.4" near Gulf County on SPC mesoanalysis) and high
freeing levels, heavy rain rates in storms and locally heavy
rainfall appear likely this afternoon. A few storms could produce
strong-severe wind gusts, but the severe weather threat should
remain somewhat isolated.

Temperature trends today have also been close to expectations now
that the denser cloud cover from this morning has scattered out. A
few locations may see heat index readings reach around 110 degrees,
but most areas should top out in the in the 105-108 range. Lows
tonight look to be in the mid-70s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Friday begins with an upper ridge exiting the Southeast to the
west, and a broad trough covering the northern third of the
country, but also dipping down the eastern CONUS just short of the
Southeast. At the surface, a frontal boundary will be draped
northeast to southwest from the NC coast to the LA coast,
essentially bisecting the Southeast. Out ahead of the front
remains the broad surface low/trough that has been aiding in
convective development over the past few days. These features will
move very little through Saturday night.

PoPs will remain higher than typical for this time of year with
the two primary focus areas being the front (NW half of the area)
and the broad low pressure (SE half of the area). High PWATs
between 2-2.25" and deep warm cloud layers (12-15 kft) each day
would suggest the potential for heavy rain. In addition, although
there are small differences in the steering flow between models,
it is probable that steering flow may run parallel to each of the
forcing mechanisms making training and isolated urban flooding a
concern. The threat for severe weather remains low, with only
an isolated damaging wind potential likely attributed to water
loaded downdrafts.

Highs will still be able to reach at least the lower 90s, and
possibly middle 90s in a very moist boundary layer. Thus, heat
advisory conditions are not out of the question tomorrow, but for
now heat indices appear to top out just below criteria. Slightly
cooler temps on Saturday will likely preclude heat advisory
conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The wet pattern will continue through the extending with the
persistent surface trough entrenched across the Southeast. PoPs
will remain above normal, with near to slightly below normal
afternoon highs.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to affect the
region this afternoon and early this evening. Any of the terminals
could be affected by storms, which could bring brief gusty winds
and IFR visibilities in heavier downpours. Otherwise, primarily
VFR conditions are expected overall, although some brief MVFR
ceilings could occur early this afternoon. There is a chance for
some patchy fog overnight, but confidence is not sufficiently high
to put that in the TAFs yet.

&&

.Marine...

Southwest winds will become more westerly late in the weekend,
with high rain chances both day and night over the next several
days. On and off cautionary level winds will be possible east of
Apalachicola beginning Friday and lasting through early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No red flag conditions are forecast for the next week with hot and
humid summertime conditions in place.

&&

.Hydrology...

Five day estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is
likely along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend.
Elsewhere, 1.5 to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still
below action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast, river flooding is not expected; though isolated urban
flooding maybe possible in training or stationary storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  92  76  92  75 /  40  60  50  60  40
Panama City   79  89  78  88  78 /  40  60  50  50  40
Dothan        75  94  74  93  74 /  40  60  50  50  30
Albany        75  95  75  93  74 /  40  60  40  60  40
Valdosta      74  93  75  92  75 /  30  60  30  60  40
Cross City    75  90  75  89  76 /  30  60  60  60  60
Apalachicola  79  90  78  88  77 /  40  60  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301541
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1141 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A mixture of low and mid level cloud layers this morning across
the area have affected surface temperature trends through 15Z.
Most notably, it has kept many of our southwest Georgia counties
in the lower 80s. However, we expect that with further daytime
mixing that the low-level clouds will eventually scatter out
sufficiently to yield mid-90s highs over the interior northwest
half of our forecast area, with highs around 90 into the low 90s
over the remainder of the area. Dewpoints are quite high again,
and the 12Z Tallahassee sounding reveals much higher mixing ratios
in the 1000-3000 ft AGL layer this morning compared to 24 hours
ago. This should allow surface dewpoints to generally persist in
the mid 70s through the day across much of the area, and the upper
70s to around 80 near the coast. This will generate a fairly broad
area of maximum heat indices around 107-110 degrees - which is
near the criteria for a Heat Advisory. Given the abundance of
cloud cover, some convection already initiating, and coordination
with WFOs MOB and BMX, we will hold off on an advisory although a
few scattered locations in the western half of the area could
briefly hit advisory criteria. Overall heat indices of 105-110
are expected in much of the area.

Pivoting to convective expectations, some isolated convection was
already initiating over land areas in the 14-15Z timeframe. We
expect convective activity to gradually become more widespread by
19Z (3 PM EDT) over our Florida zones. Through propagation of
outflow boundaries, other locations reaching their convective
temperature, and a surface trough over the forecast area, these
showers and storms are likely to expand to the rest of the area in
the afternoon hours. Therefore, we expanded "likely" PoPs (60-70%)
into the entire forecast area during the afternoon hours. The 12Z
Tallahassee sounding measured a precipitable water value of 2.12"
and model forecasts suggest 2.1" to 2.2" PWATs across the area
today with high freezing levels. This suggests very efficient
rainfall producers and locally heavy rain. As was the case
yesterday, frequent lightning will be likely in many storms, and a
few storms could also produce strong-severe winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.


.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  76  90  75  91 /  60  30  60  40  60
Panama City   91  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  60  40  50  40  50
Albany        96  76  91  74  91 /  60  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      92  75  90  74  90 /  60  30  60  40  60
Cross City    91  75  88  75  88 /  60  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  60  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301541
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1141 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A mixture of low and mid level cloud layers this morning across
the area have affected surface temperature trends through 15Z.
Most notably, it has kept many of our southwest Georgia counties
in the lower 80s. However, we expect that with further daytime
mixing that the low-level clouds will eventually scatter out
sufficiently to yield mid-90s highs over the interior northwest
half of our forecast area, with highs around 90 into the low 90s
over the remainder of the area. Dewpoints are quite high again,
and the 12Z Tallahassee sounding reveals much higher mixing ratios
in the 1000-3000 ft AGL layer this morning compared to 24 hours
ago. This should allow surface dewpoints to generally persist in
the mid 70s through the day across much of the area, and the upper
70s to around 80 near the coast. This will generate a fairly broad
area of maximum heat indices around 107-110 degrees - which is
near the criteria for a Heat Advisory. Given the abundance of
cloud cover, some convection already initiating, and coordination
with WFOs MOB and BMX, we will hold off on an advisory although a
few scattered locations in the western half of the area could
briefly hit advisory criteria. Overall heat indices of 105-110
are expected in much of the area.

Pivoting to convective expectations, some isolated convection was
already initiating over land areas in the 14-15Z timeframe. We
expect convective activity to gradually become more widespread by
19Z (3 PM EDT) over our Florida zones. Through propagation of
outflow boundaries, other locations reaching their convective
temperature, and a surface trough over the forecast area, these
showers and storms are likely to expand to the rest of the area in
the afternoon hours. Therefore, we expanded "likely" PoPs (60-70%)
into the entire forecast area during the afternoon hours. The 12Z
Tallahassee sounding measured a precipitable water value of 2.12"
and model forecasts suggest 2.1" to 2.2" PWATs across the area
today with high freezing levels. This suggests very efficient
rainfall producers and locally heavy rain. As was the case
yesterday, frequent lightning will be likely in many storms, and a
few storms could also produce strong-severe winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.


.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  76  90  75  91 /  60  30  60  40  60
Panama City   91  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  60  40  50  40  50
Albany        96  76  91  74  91 /  60  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      92  75  90  74  90 /  60  30  60  40  60
Cross City    91  75  88  75  88 /  60  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  60  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300750
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the area today
with PWAT values over 2 inches. It appears as though we will have
a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may
act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. This yields mainly mid 90s across the area instead of
upper 90s to near 100. Dewpoints will still be oppressive in the
mid 70s, and afternoon heat index values in most places are
expected to be in the 105 to 108 degree range. This is just short
of the local heat advisory criteria of 109 or higher. If it
weren`t for the morning cloud cover, we would probably have
another heat advisory today. Trends will have to be monitored
closely this morning since if the cloud cover is less than
expected, readings will be higher than currently forecast.

As far as convection goes today, the latest ensemble of hi-res
models places the greatest coverage today across the Florida
zones and adjacent sections of southern Georgia, with scattered
coverage across southeast Alabama and the remainder of southwest
Georgia. The greater coverage to the south is likely due to
convergence between the afternoon sea breeze and light northerly
flow on the large scale. The official forecast followed this
thinking for this afternoon. The environment does not appear to be
that different from yesterday, so a few strong to locally severe
storms are possible across the area again this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  90  75  91 /  70  30  60  40  60
Panama City   88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        95  76  91  74  91 /  50  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      93  75  90  74  90 /  70  30  60  40  60
Cross City    92  75  88  75  88 /  70  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300750
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the area today
with PWAT values over 2 inches. It appears as though we will have
a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may
act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. This yields mainly mid 90s across the area instead of
upper 90s to near 100. Dewpoints will still be oppressive in the
mid 70s, and afternoon heat index values in most places are
expected to be in the 105 to 108 degree range. This is just short
of the local heat advisory criteria of 109 or higher. If it
weren`t for the morning cloud cover, we would probably have
another heat advisory today. Trends will have to be monitored
closely this morning since if the cloud cover is less than
expected, readings will be higher than currently forecast.

As far as convection goes today, the latest ensemble of hi-res
models places the greatest coverage today across the Florida
zones and adjacent sections of southern Georgia, with scattered
coverage across southeast Alabama and the remainder of southwest
Georgia. The greater coverage to the south is likely due to
convergence between the afternoon sea breeze and light northerly
flow on the large scale. The official forecast followed this
thinking for this afternoon. The environment does not appear to be
that different from yesterday, so a few strong to locally severe
storms are possible across the area again this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  90  75  91 /  70  30  60  40  60
Panama City   88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        95  76  91  74  91 /  50  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      93  75  90  74  90 /  70  30  60  40  60
Cross City    92  75  88  75  88 /  70  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300750
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the area today
with PWAT values over 2 inches. It appears as though we will have
a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may
act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. This yields mainly mid 90s across the area instead of
upper 90s to near 100. Dewpoints will still be oppressive in the
mid 70s, and afternoon heat index values in most places are
expected to be in the 105 to 108 degree range. This is just short
of the local heat advisory criteria of 109 or higher. If it
weren`t for the morning cloud cover, we would probably have
another heat advisory today. Trends will have to be monitored
closely this morning since if the cloud cover is less than
expected, readings will be higher than currently forecast.

As far as convection goes today, the latest ensemble of hi-res
models places the greatest coverage today across the Florida
zones and adjacent sections of southern Georgia, with scattered
coverage across southeast Alabama and the remainder of southwest
Georgia. The greater coverage to the south is likely due to
convergence between the afternoon sea breeze and light northerly
flow on the large scale. The official forecast followed this
thinking for this afternoon. The environment does not appear to be
that different from yesterday, so a few strong to locally severe
storms are possible across the area again this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  90  75  91 /  70  30  60  40  60
Panama City   88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        95  76  91  74  91 /  50  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      93  75  90  74  90 /  70  30  60  40  60
Cross City    92  75  88  75  88 /  70  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300750
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the area today
with PWAT values over 2 inches. It appears as though we will have
a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may
act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. This yields mainly mid 90s across the area instead of
upper 90s to near 100. Dewpoints will still be oppressive in the
mid 70s, and afternoon heat index values in most places are
expected to be in the 105 to 108 degree range. This is just short
of the local heat advisory criteria of 109 or higher. If it
weren`t for the morning cloud cover, we would probably have
another heat advisory today. Trends will have to be monitored
closely this morning since if the cloud cover is less than
expected, readings will be higher than currently forecast.

As far as convection goes today, the latest ensemble of hi-res
models places the greatest coverage today across the Florida
zones and adjacent sections of southern Georgia, with scattered
coverage across southeast Alabama and the remainder of southwest
Georgia. The greater coverage to the south is likely due to
convergence between the afternoon sea breeze and light northerly
flow on the large scale. The official forecast followed this
thinking for this afternoon. The environment does not appear to be
that different from yesterday, so a few strong to locally severe
storms are possible across the area again this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  90  75  91 /  70  30  60  40  60
Panama City   88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        95  76  91  74  91 /  50  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      93  75  90  74  90 /  70  30  60  40  60
Cross City    92  75  88  75  88 /  70  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300114
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An arc of convection from Americus, GA to Lake Seminole to coastal
waters near Apalachicola will continue to dissipate through the
evening. The strongest convection remains offshore with an area of
low pressure producing strong winds and possibly a waterspout.
Further inland, storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds, but
are expected to weaken as the night continues. With heavy cloud
cover from storms across the area, temperatures will only fall to
the mid to upper 70s, around 80 along the immediate coastline.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] Scattered TSRA near ABY and TLH will continue
to dissipate this evening. Convection will pick back up tomorrow
afternoon. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.Hydrology...

Although coverage of storms has been scattered for the most part,
areas that have received rain have received around 1-2", with one
area near Lake Seminole receiving over 5" of rain so far tonight.
These totals have not caused rises along our area rivers, but have
caused some localized flooding. Rain chances will remain high
through the rest of the week with 5 day estimated rain totals
around 3-4" along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big
Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is likely. Area rivers are still below
action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast,
river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion [359 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper pattern will begin to change during this period as the
upper ridge begins to retreat westward as a trough bulges into the
Southeast. At the surface a cold front will pass through the
Appalachians on Thursday, and stall out across the Tri-State
region by Friday. Convection on Thursday will likely be the result
of any remnant boundaries as well as the Gulf Coast seabreezes,
with no upstream MCS influence at this time. By Friday, the
forcing becomes a bit more complicated with influences from the
aforementioned front, a surface trough/low, and the seabreeze
fronts. In general, expect high PoPs each afternoon, highest on
Friday.

High temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as convection
will likely hold off until the afternoon. Borderline heat advisory
conditions will be possible. On Friday, more convective coverage
on a not so diurnal time frame should keep temperatures in the
lower 90s, with heat advisory conditions not expected.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It appears as though the wet pattern will continue through the
extended range forecast as several shortwaves keep the eastern
CONUS trough extending into the Southeast. Additionally, at the
surface, the stalled front is expected to linger through the
period, only gradually weakening each day. Expect above normal
PoPs and near normal high temperatures each day.


.Marine...

Southwest winds below headline levels will prevail for the next
several days. Late this week, into the weekend, there will be a
possibility for some brief cautionary level winds. Thunderstorms
will be numerous over the waters each night, with scattered storms
each afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

An active weather pattern in place will keep rain chances and
relative humidity values high, preventing us from reaching red flag
criteria for the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  91  76  90  75 /  80  50  30  60  40
Panama City   80  88  79  88  78 /  70  50  30  60  40
Dothan        76  93  75  92  74 /  50  50  40  50  40
Albany        76  93  76  90  74 /  80  50  30  50  40
Valdosta      76  90  75  89  74 /  40  50  30  60  40
Cross City    77  87  76  88  75 /  50  50  30  60  40
Apalachicola  79  88  79  88  78 / 100  50  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE/HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300114
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An arc of convection from Americus, GA to Lake Seminole to coastal
waters near Apalachicola will continue to dissipate through the
evening. The strongest convection remains offshore with an area of
low pressure producing strong winds and possibly a waterspout.
Further inland, storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds, but
are expected to weaken as the night continues. With heavy cloud
cover from storms across the area, temperatures will only fall to
the mid to upper 70s, around 80 along the immediate coastline.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] Scattered TSRA near ABY and TLH will continue
to dissipate this evening. Convection will pick back up tomorrow
afternoon. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.Hydrology...

Although coverage of storms has been scattered for the most part,
areas that have received rain have received around 1-2", with one
area near Lake Seminole receiving over 5" of rain so far tonight.
These totals have not caused rises along our area rivers, but have
caused some localized flooding. Rain chances will remain high
through the rest of the week with 5 day estimated rain totals
around 3-4" along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big
Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is likely. Area rivers are still below
action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast,
river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion [359 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper pattern will begin to change during this period as the
upper ridge begins to retreat westward as a trough bulges into the
Southeast. At the surface a cold front will pass through the
Appalachians on Thursday, and stall out across the Tri-State
region by Friday. Convection on Thursday will likely be the result
of any remnant boundaries as well as the Gulf Coast seabreezes,
with no upstream MCS influence at this time. By Friday, the
forcing becomes a bit more complicated with influences from the
aforementioned front, a surface trough/low, and the seabreeze
fronts. In general, expect high PoPs each afternoon, highest on
Friday.

High temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as convection
will likely hold off until the afternoon. Borderline heat advisory
conditions will be possible. On Friday, more convective coverage
on a not so diurnal time frame should keep temperatures in the
lower 90s, with heat advisory conditions not expected.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It appears as though the wet pattern will continue through the
extended range forecast as several shortwaves keep the eastern
CONUS trough extending into the Southeast. Additionally, at the
surface, the stalled front is expected to linger through the
period, only gradually weakening each day. Expect above normal
PoPs and near normal high temperatures each day.


.Marine...

Southwest winds below headline levels will prevail for the next
several days. Late this week, into the weekend, there will be a
possibility for some brief cautionary level winds. Thunderstorms
will be numerous over the waters each night, with scattered storms
each afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

An active weather pattern in place will keep rain chances and
relative humidity values high, preventing us from reaching red flag
criteria for the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  91  76  90  75 /  80  50  30  60  40
Panama City   80  88  79  88  78 /  70  50  30  60  40
Dothan        76  93  75  92  74 /  50  50  40  50  40
Albany        76  93  76  90  74 /  80  50  30  50  40
Valdosta      76  90  75  89  74 /  40  50  30  60  40
Cross City    77  87  76  88  75 /  50  50  30  60  40
Apalachicola  79  88  79  88  78 / 100  50  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE/HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291959
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Today`s convection is being forced by two separate features. The
convection west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers is
likely due to an MCV spawned from yesterday`s convection over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The convection to the east appears to
be generated from a residual surface outflow boundary from the
same convective cluster just mentioned. With 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE
around, plus marginally high dTheta-E values, there remains a
chance for some isolated strong to severe downburst winds within
the strongest storms. Additionally, unseasonably high PWATs would
suggest the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially in areas
where storm motion slows due to boundary interactions.

Heat indices are still running in the 109-113 range according to
area ASOS readings, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
90s. Sunset or a thunderstorm looks to be the only relief this
afternoon. A heat advisory remains in effect for much of the
region.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper pattern will begin to change during this period as the
upper ridge begins to retreat westward as a trough bulges into the
Southeast. At the surface a cold front will pass through the
Appalachians on Thursday, and stall out across the Tri-State
region by Friday. Convection on Thursday will likely be the result
of any remnant boundaries as well as the Gulf Coast seabreezes,
with no upstream MCS influence at this time. By Friday, the
forcing becomes a bit more complicated with influences from the
aforementioned front, a surface trough/low, and the seabreeze
fronts. In general, expect high PoPs each afternoon, highest on
Friday.

High temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as convection
will likely hold off until the afternoon. Borderline heat advisory
conditions will be possible. On Friday, more convective coverage
on a not so diurnal time frame should keep temperatures in the
lower 90s, with heat advisory conditions not expected.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It appears as though the wet pattern will continue through the
extended range forecast as several shortwaves keep the eastern
CONUS trough extending into the Southeast. Additionally, at the
surface, the stalled front is expected to linger through the
period, only gradually weakening each day. Expect above normal
PoPs and near normal high temperatures each day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms this afternoon, with all
terminals keeping high rain chances through this evening. Gusty
winds around 30 knots and heavy rain are common in this
afternoon`s storms. Most of the storms will have diminished by
06z, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Southwest winds below headline levels will prevail for the next
several days. Late this week, into the weekend, there will be a
possibility for some brief cautionary level winds. Thunderstorms
will be numerous over the waters each night, with scattered storms
each afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

An active weather pattern in place will keep rain chances and
relative humidity values high, preventing us from reaching red flag
criteria for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five day
estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is likely along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5
to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  91  76  90  75 /  60  50  30  60  40
Panama City   80  88  79  88  78 /  50  50  30  60  40
Dothan        76  93  75  92  74 /  30  50  40  50  40
Albany        76  93  76  90  74 /  70  50  30  50  40
Valdosta      76  90  75  89  74 /  70  50  30  60  40
Cross City    77  87  76  88  75 /  60  50  30  60  40
Apalachicola  79  88  79  88  78 /  50  50  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden- Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton- South Walton- Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lee-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291959
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Today`s convection is being forced by two separate features. The
convection west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers is
likely due to an MCV spawned from yesterday`s convection over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The convection to the east appears to
be generated from a residual surface outflow boundary from the
same convective cluster just mentioned. With 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE
around, plus marginally high dTheta-E values, there remains a
chance for some isolated strong to severe downburst winds within
the strongest storms. Additionally, unseasonably high PWATs would
suggest the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially in areas
where storm motion slows due to boundary interactions.

Heat indices are still running in the 109-113 range according to
area ASOS readings, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
90s. Sunset or a thunderstorm looks to be the only relief this
afternoon. A heat advisory remains in effect for much of the
region.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper pattern will begin to change during this period as the
upper ridge begins to retreat westward as a trough bulges into the
Southeast. At the surface a cold front will pass through the
Appalachians on Thursday, and stall out across the Tri-State
region by Friday. Convection on Thursday will likely be the result
of any remnant boundaries as well as the Gulf Coast seabreezes,
with no upstream MCS influence at this time. By Friday, the
forcing becomes a bit more complicated with influences from the
aforementioned front, a surface trough/low, and the seabreeze
fronts. In general, expect high PoPs each afternoon, highest on
Friday.

High temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as convection
will likely hold off until the afternoon. Borderline heat advisory
conditions will be possible. On Friday, more convective coverage
on a not so diurnal time frame should keep temperatures in the
lower 90s, with heat advisory conditions not expected.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It appears as though the wet pattern will continue through the
extended range forecast as several shortwaves keep the eastern
CONUS trough extending into the Southeast. Additionally, at the
surface, the stalled front is expected to linger through the
period, only gradually weakening each day. Expect above normal
PoPs and near normal high temperatures each day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms this afternoon, with all
terminals keeping high rain chances through this evening. Gusty
winds around 30 knots and heavy rain are common in this
afternoon`s storms. Most of the storms will have diminished by
06z, with VFR prevailing through the rest of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Southwest winds below headline levels will prevail for the next
several days. Late this week, into the weekend, there will be a
possibility for some brief cautionary level winds. Thunderstorms
will be numerous over the waters each night, with scattered storms
each afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

An active weather pattern in place will keep rain chances and
relative humidity values high, preventing us from reaching red flag
criteria for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five day
estimated rain totals indicate that 3 to 4 inches is likely along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5
to 2.5 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  91  76  90  75 /  60  50  30  60  40
Panama City   80  88  79  88  78 /  50  50  30  60  40
Dothan        76  93  75  92  74 /  30  50  40  50  40
Albany        76  93  76  90  74 /  70  50  30  50  40
Valdosta      76  90  75  89  74 /  70  50  30  60  40
Cross City    77  87  76  88  75 /  60  50  30  60  40
Apalachicola  79  88  79  88  78 /  50  50  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden- Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon- Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton- South Walton- Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lee-
     Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291518
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1118 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Compared to 24 hours ago, dewpoints this morning are generally
running about 1-3 degrees higher. This continues the trend of
gradually increasing boundary layer moisture over the past several
days, and should prevent the surface dewpoints from mixing down as
low as they have been yesterday or the day before (upper 60s in
some areas). Pivoting to temperatures, we are expecting largely
similar highs to yesterday outside of any earlier initiating
convection. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding was warmer in the
boundary layer as compared to yesterday, but nearly identical to
the 00Z sounding from yesterday evening other than a shallow
near-surface inversion. Temperatures should really increase
between 15-17Z with only a marginal drop in dewpoints. We are
expecting this to yield some high heat indices in the 110-112
degree range over fairly broad areas, squarely within the Heat
Advisory criteria. Therefore, the existing advisory was continued.
Some locations in Gulf, Franklin, southern Liberty, Wakulla, and
even Leon County (outside of the central city of Tallahassee) may
approach Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 114 degree heat
indices. However, given uncertainties regarding some approaching
mid-level cloud decks, and the possibility of convection as early
as 16-17Z, we just maintained an advisory for now. The start time
of the advisory was moved up to 15Z with some locations already
reporting heat indices as high as 105 degrees.

We still expect fairly widespread convective activity today across
the area, and the rain chances in this update are very similar to
the previous forecast. Initial development, and the highest PoPs,
are expected to be near the Florida Big Bend coastline, extending
up the Interstate-75 corridor near a weak and subtle surface
pressure trough. This activity should then expand through the
afternoon into the rest of the area. Precipitable water values
around 2 inches and a freezing level of over 17,000 feet on the
12Z Tallahassee sounding suggest any showers and storms today
could be efficient rain producers. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Strong instability and K index readings over 40, in
concert with the high PWATs, typically suggest that storms could
produce frequent lightning and that wording was kept in the
forecast. Finally, the strong instability and stronger NE flow
around 250-200mb could support some more organized storms today
with some isolated severe weather possible (mainly in the form of
damaging wind gusts).

&&

.Prev Discussion [343 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.


.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  80  30  50  30  60
Panama City   91  80  88  79  87 /  60  20  50  30  50
Dothan        98  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        98  76  93  76  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  80  60  50  30  60
Cross City    92  77  89  76  89 /  70  70  50  30  60
Apalachicola  94  79  88  79  88 /  50  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291518
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1118 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Compared to 24 hours ago, dewpoints this morning are generally
running about 1-3 degrees higher. This continues the trend of
gradually increasing boundary layer moisture over the past several
days, and should prevent the surface dewpoints from mixing down as
low as they have been yesterday or the day before (upper 60s in
some areas). Pivoting to temperatures, we are expecting largely
similar highs to yesterday outside of any earlier initiating
convection. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding was warmer in the
boundary layer as compared to yesterday, but nearly identical to
the 00Z sounding from yesterday evening other than a shallow
near-surface inversion. Temperatures should really increase
between 15-17Z with only a marginal drop in dewpoints. We are
expecting this to yield some high heat indices in the 110-112
degree range over fairly broad areas, squarely within the Heat
Advisory criteria. Therefore, the existing advisory was continued.
Some locations in Gulf, Franklin, southern Liberty, Wakulla, and
even Leon County (outside of the central city of Tallahassee) may
approach Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 114 degree heat
indices. However, given uncertainties regarding some approaching
mid-level cloud decks, and the possibility of convection as early
as 16-17Z, we just maintained an advisory for now. The start time
of the advisory was moved up to 15Z with some locations already
reporting heat indices as high as 105 degrees.

We still expect fairly widespread convective activity today across
the area, and the rain chances in this update are very similar to
the previous forecast. Initial development, and the highest PoPs,
are expected to be near the Florida Big Bend coastline, extending
up the Interstate-75 corridor near a weak and subtle surface
pressure trough. This activity should then expand through the
afternoon into the rest of the area. Precipitable water values
around 2 inches and a freezing level of over 17,000 feet on the
12Z Tallahassee sounding suggest any showers and storms today
could be efficient rain producers. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Strong instability and K index readings over 40, in
concert with the high PWATs, typically suggest that storms could
produce frequent lightning and that wording was kept in the
forecast. Finally, the strong instability and stronger NE flow
around 250-200mb could support some more organized storms today
with some isolated severe weather possible (mainly in the form of
damaging wind gusts).

&&

.Prev Discussion [343 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.


.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  80  30  50  30  60
Panama City   91  80  88  79  87 /  60  20  50  30  50
Dothan        98  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        98  76  93  76  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  80  60  50  30  60
Cross City    92  77  89  76  89 /  70  70  50  30  60
Apalachicola  94  79  88  79  88 /  50  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290743
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Dangerous Heat Expected Again This Afternoon...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Today will likely be an active day for convection across the
area. The overnight analysis shows upper ridging with light
northerly flow aloft over the local area. The remnants of an MCS
is moving southward through northern Alabama. As we head into this
afternoon, higher PWAT values will actually be advecting into the
area from the north, and the remains of the MCS may help increase
surface convergence across the area and spawn a new MCS. The
environment is expected to be favorable for wet microbursts with
SBCAPE values around 3000 j/kg and decent delta thetae values
pushing the WMSI (Wet Microburst Severity Index) to near 80 this
afternoon. The latest run of the ECAM (Ensemble of Convection
Allowing Models) focuses the highest PoPs in the 21z-00z time
frame with PoPs starting to ramp up quickly after 18z. The
official forecast follows this general idea with at least likely
PoPs across most of the area, which is above the gridded MOS
guidance. Given the expected favorable environment and high PWAT
values, some enhanced wording for gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain was used for the point and click forecast. A few
severe storms are possible this afternoon.

The other issue for today will be high heat index values. Although
convection is expected to be plentiful, the later start after 18z is
still expected to allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s
across most of the area this afternoon. Given the deeper moisture
expected today, dewpoints aren`t expected to mix out as much either,
and this combination will lead to heat index values slightly higher
than yesterday. This tips the scale in favor of a heat advisory
across most of the area this afternoon with the exception of the
far east for heat index values in the 107-112 degree range.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  70  40  50  30  60
Panama City   90  80  88  79  87 /  70  40  50  30  50
Dothan        97  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        97  76  93  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    94  77  89  76  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Apalachicola  95  79  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening
     FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 290743
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Dangerous Heat Expected Again This Afternoon...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Today will likely be an active day for convection across the
area. The overnight analysis shows upper ridging with light
northerly flow aloft over the local area. The remnants of an MCS
is moving southward through northern Alabama. As we head into this
afternoon, higher PWAT values will actually be advecting into the
area from the north, and the remains of the MCS may help increase
surface convergence across the area and spawn a new MCS. The
environment is expected to be favorable for wet microbursts with
SBCAPE values around 3000 j/kg and decent delta thetae values
pushing the WMSI (Wet Microburst Severity Index) to near 80 this
afternoon. The latest run of the ECAM (Ensemble of Convection
Allowing Models) focuses the highest PoPs in the 21z-00z time
frame with PoPs starting to ramp up quickly after 18z. The
official forecast follows this general idea with at least likely
PoPs across most of the area, which is above the gridded MOS
guidance. Given the expected favorable environment and high PWAT
values, some enhanced wording for gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain was used for the point and click forecast. A few
severe storms are possible this afternoon.

The other issue for today will be high heat index values. Although
convection is expected to be plentiful, the later start after 18z is
still expected to allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s
across most of the area this afternoon. Given the deeper moisture
expected today, dewpoints aren`t expected to mix out as much either,
and this combination will lead to heat index values slightly higher
than yesterday. This tips the scale in favor of a heat advisory
across most of the area this afternoon with the exception of the
far east for heat index values in the 107-112 degree range.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  70  40  50  30  60
Panama City   90  80  88  79  87 /  70  40  50  30  50
Dothan        97  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        97  76  93  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    94  77  89  76  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Apalachicola  95  79  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening
     FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 282348
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west
oriented trough across north FL, and a weak, broad low pressure
system across central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a high pressure system centered over AR, and lower heights across
much of the eastern CONUS. There remained a region of considerably
drier air above 500 mb, as well as a relatively dry, but narrow zone
between 850 mb and just above the surface. These dry slots
appeared to be limiting the amount (and intensity) of updrafts,
and only isolated thunderstorms were occurring across our region
early this evening. Storms were more numerous to our north, and
they were generally drifting southward, but we think most of them
will dissipate before reaching our region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] Outside of a few isolated TSRA this
evening, we expect generally VFR conditions overnight and through
much of the day on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous TSRA will
develop Wednesday afternoon, and all terminals are likely to
report thunder at some point.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.


.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  10  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  10  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  40  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 282348
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west
oriented trough across north FL, and a weak, broad low pressure
system across central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a high pressure system centered over AR, and lower heights across
much of the eastern CONUS. There remained a region of considerably
drier air above 500 mb, as well as a relatively dry, but narrow zone
between 850 mb and just above the surface. These dry slots
appeared to be limiting the amount (and intensity) of updrafts,
and only isolated thunderstorms were occurring across our region
early this evening. Storms were more numerous to our north, and
they were generally drifting southward, but we think most of them
will dissipate before reaching our region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] Outside of a few isolated TSRA this
evening, we expect generally VFR conditions overnight and through
much of the day on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous TSRA will
develop Wednesday afternoon, and all terminals are likely to
report thunder at some point.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.


.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  10  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  10  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  40  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 282348
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west
oriented trough across north FL, and a weak, broad low pressure
system across central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a high pressure system centered over AR, and lower heights across
much of the eastern CONUS. There remained a region of considerably
drier air above 500 mb, as well as a relatively dry, but narrow zone
between 850 mb and just above the surface. These dry slots
appeared to be limiting the amount (and intensity) of updrafts,
and only isolated thunderstorms were occurring across our region
early this evening. Storms were more numerous to our north, and
they were generally drifting southward, but we think most of them
will dissipate before reaching our region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] Outside of a few isolated TSRA this
evening, we expect generally VFR conditions overnight and through
much of the day on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous TSRA will
develop Wednesday afternoon, and all terminals are likely to
report thunder at some point.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.


.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  10  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  10  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  40  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 282348
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed an east-west
oriented trough across north FL, and a weak, broad low pressure
system across central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a high pressure system centered over AR, and lower heights across
much of the eastern CONUS. There remained a region of considerably
drier air above 500 mb, as well as a relatively dry, but narrow zone
between 850 mb and just above the surface. These dry slots
appeared to be limiting the amount (and intensity) of updrafts,
and only isolated thunderstorms were occurring across our region
early this evening. Storms were more numerous to our north, and
they were generally drifting southward, but we think most of them
will dissipate before reaching our region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] Outside of a few isolated TSRA this
evening, we expect generally VFR conditions overnight and through
much of the day on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous TSRA will
develop Wednesday afternoon, and all terminals are likely to
report thunder at some point.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.


.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  10  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  10  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  40  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The expectations of a hot day are panning out this afternoon, with
19Z temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s (slightly cooler in
the eastern Florida Big Bend). Most locations should see their high
temperatures in the next hour or two, with a relatively warm night
expected tonight. The normal low for Tallahassee is 72, but lows
tonight are expected to be in the mid-70s (77 at TLH). Isolated
convective activity has developed in the northwest parts of the
area, and some isolated showers and storms will continue to be
possible into the early evening hours (but should generally diminish
around sunset).


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Storms this afternoon and evening are expected to be isolated, so
terminals may not be affected. If one of the terminals is affected
(ECP and DHN would be most likely), brief IFR visibilities would
be possible.

&&

.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  20  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  20  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  20  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  20  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla- Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The expectations of a hot day are panning out this afternoon, with
19Z temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 90s (slightly cooler in
the eastern Florida Big Bend). Most locations should see their high
temperatures in the next hour or two, with a relatively warm night
expected tonight. The normal low for Tallahassee is 72, but lows
tonight are expected to be in the mid-70s (77 at TLH). Isolated
convective activity has developed in the northwest parts of the
area, and some isolated showers and storms will continue to be
possible into the early evening hours (but should generally diminish
around sunset).


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In general, we`ll remain under the eastern periphery of middle and
upper level ridging through the short term. At the surface, broad
low pressure will dominate.

Under the current ridge position, northerly steering flow will
advect any MCV or MCS from the east-central CONUS, south into the
Tri-State region. The current thinking advertises some scattered
storms in our Georgia counties tomorrow morning, resulting from
convection ongoing over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Later in
the day, through the evening, a larger storm complex will likely
dive through the region. This round is most likely generated from
the remnant MCV from convection in the Upper Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Essentially this means that the 8am - 12am period
Wed. into Thurs. will be quite wet. This should also keep
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s.

On Thursday, the broad area of surface low pressure will center
itself closer to the Tri-State region, increasing low-level
convergence. This will likely force widespread thunderstorms under
a more typical diurnal cycle. The widespread nature of storms will
most likely continue to keep high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beginning Friday, the upper ridge moves a bit further east with
eastern CONUS troughing bulging into the Southeast. At the same
time a surface front will settle into the region and stall. This
will keep rain chances above normal through the weekend. Early
next week a shortwave will dive into the southeast, keeping above
normal PoPs in the forecast. Afternoon highs will remain near, to
slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Storms this afternoon and evening are expected to be isolated, so
terminals may not be affected. If one of the terminals is affected
(ECP and DHN would be most likely), brief IFR visibilities would
be possible.

&&

.Marine...

West/southwesterly winds will prevail through the next week and
will likely remain below headline levels. Shower and thunderstorms
are expected each day.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as we
transition back to a pattern of unseasonably high PoPs.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 3 to 4 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  93  78  89  77 /  20  60  40  50  30
Panama City   79  91  81  86  79 /  10  60  50  40  30
Dothan        76  94  76  90  77 /  20  60  30  40  30
Albany        76  94  76  91  76 /  20  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      75  92  77  90  76 /  20  50  30  50  30
Cross City    75  90  79  86  77 /  20  50  40  50  30
Apalachicola  79  89  80  85  80 /  10  50  50  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla- Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281429
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

From 12-14Z, dewpoints have been tracking above most model
guidance across the area, particularly near the Gulf coast and in
central parts of our forecast area - roughly bounded by a line
from ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J. The morning sounding from Tallahassee
revealed slightly more moisture in the boundary layer as compared
to 24 hours ago, and significantly less dry air in the 1000-3000ft
AGL layer. This should make the higher surface dewpoints (mid-
upper 70s) more resilient today as compared to yesterday, even
with slightly hotter temperatures (and a well-mixed boundary
layer) expected. The surface dewpoints mixed down closer to 70
degrees by 16Z yesterday, but even an extra hour or two of higher
dewpoints should be sufficient to produce some areas of heat index
readings around 110 degrees in the early afternoon. A Heat
Advisory was issued for those areas, largely described by the
aforementioned bounded region (ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J). We did not
include Bay or Gulf counties in the advisory at this time, as
visible satellite indicated some more dense cloud cover in that
area that may persist for another few hours.

By the hottest time of day for interior portions of the area,
approximately 19-21Z, dewpoints should finally mix down into at
least the lower 70s as deeper mixing occurs. However, near the
coast, higher dewpoints may linger, so heat index readings may
remain around 110 degrees in those areas into the late afternoon.

Very few changes were made to the rest of the forecast. We still
expect highs in the 95-100 degree range in most areas. Isolated to
scattered storms will be possible - mainly in the northwest and
southeast parts of our area, with convection fairly suppressed in
between (parts of SW Georgia and the C/E Florida Panhandle).

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The local region will remain under the eastern periphery of the
mid/upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains. Both the
GFS and latest ECMWF show a possible MCS diving down from the top
of the ridge into our area Wednesday/Wednesday night. At the
surface, a weak area of low pressure will linger over the Tri-
state region. Additionally, deep layer moisture will be increasing
with forecast PWAT values at or above 2.0" by Wednesday. Look for
a return of scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms mainly late afternoon/early evening. It will be hot
with temperatures most inland areas in the mid to upper 90s. A few
spots may reach 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the increasing low
level moisture, max heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria
in some areas.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The mid/upper level pattern across the CONUS become more amplified
as the aforementioned ridge builds and retrogrades to the Four
Corners region and a trough deepens over the east. A frontal
boundary will drop down and stall over the CWA on Friday. The
front will gradually dissipate over the weekend but the weak area
of low pressure may persist into early next week. Also, a ribbon
of deep layer moisture will extend down from the mid-Atlantic
states through the northern Gulf for most of the extended period.
All this will lead to what should be a very active period for
diurnal convection. Afternoon temperatures will generally remain
below average due to all of the clouds and rain.


.Aviation...

[Through 16Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, although a brief period of MVFR-IFR
conditions is possible at VLD around dawn. Isolated convection is
possible this afternoon, but the chances appear too low to mention
at any of the individual TAF sites at this time.


.Marine...

The aforementioned low pressure system in the Gulf will remain
weak enough to allow winds and seas to remain below headline
levels through the week. By this weekend, it`s possible that
cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf. Rain
chances will drastically increase beginning on Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 2 to 3 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  75  99  77  95 /  20  20  40  30  50
Panama City   92  79  94  79  93 /  20  20  40  30  40
Dothan        98  75  98  75  98 /  30  20  40  30  40
Albany        97  75  99  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      95  74  98  76  96 /  20  20  40  30  40
Cross City    93  75  94  77  91 /  40  40  50  40  50
Apalachicola  94  79  93  80  93 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281429
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

From 12-14Z, dewpoints have been tracking above most model
guidance across the area, particularly near the Gulf coast and in
central parts of our forecast area - roughly bounded by a line
from ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J. The morning sounding from Tallahassee
revealed slightly more moisture in the boundary layer as compared
to 24 hours ago, and significantly less dry air in the 1000-3000ft
AGL layer. This should make the higher surface dewpoints (mid-
upper 70s) more resilient today as compared to yesterday, even
with slightly hotter temperatures (and a well-mixed boundary
layer) expected. The surface dewpoints mixed down closer to 70
degrees by 16Z yesterday, but even an extra hour or two of higher
dewpoints should be sufficient to produce some areas of heat index
readings around 110 degrees in the early afternoon. A Heat
Advisory was issued for those areas, largely described by the
aforementioned bounded region (ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J). We did not
include Bay or Gulf counties in the advisory at this time, as
visible satellite indicated some more dense cloud cover in that
area that may persist for another few hours.

By the hottest time of day for interior portions of the area,
approximately 19-21Z, dewpoints should finally mix down into at
least the lower 70s as deeper mixing occurs. However, near the
coast, higher dewpoints may linger, so heat index readings may
remain around 110 degrees in those areas into the late afternoon.

Very few changes were made to the rest of the forecast. We still
expect highs in the 95-100 degree range in most areas. Isolated to
scattered storms will be possible - mainly in the northwest and
southeast parts of our area, with convection fairly suppressed in
between (parts of SW Georgia and the C/E Florida Panhandle).

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The local region will remain under the eastern periphery of the
mid/upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains. Both the
GFS and latest ECMWF show a possible MCS diving down from the top
of the ridge into our area Wednesday/Wednesday night. At the
surface, a weak area of low pressure will linger over the Tri-
state region. Additionally, deep layer moisture will be increasing
with forecast PWAT values at or above 2.0" by Wednesday. Look for
a return of scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms mainly late afternoon/early evening. It will be hot
with temperatures most inland areas in the mid to upper 90s. A few
spots may reach 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the increasing low
level moisture, max heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria
in some areas.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The mid/upper level pattern across the CONUS become more amplified
as the aforementioned ridge builds and retrogrades to the Four
Corners region and a trough deepens over the east. A frontal
boundary will drop down and stall over the CWA on Friday. The
front will gradually dissipate over the weekend but the weak area
of low pressure may persist into early next week. Also, a ribbon
of deep layer moisture will extend down from the mid-Atlantic
states through the northern Gulf for most of the extended period.
All this will lead to what should be a very active period for
diurnal convection. Afternoon temperatures will generally remain
below average due to all of the clouds and rain.


.Aviation...

[Through 16Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, although a brief period of MVFR-IFR
conditions is possible at VLD around dawn. Isolated convection is
possible this afternoon, but the chances appear too low to mention
at any of the individual TAF sites at this time.


.Marine...

The aforementioned low pressure system in the Gulf will remain
weak enough to allow winds and seas to remain below headline
levels through the week. By this weekend, it`s possible that
cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf. Rain
chances will drastically increase beginning on Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 2 to 3 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  75  99  77  95 /  20  20  40  30  50
Panama City   92  79  94  79  93 /  20  20  40  30  40
Dothan        98  75  98  75  98 /  30  20  40  30  40
Albany        97  75  99  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      95  74  98  76  96 /  20  20  40  30  40
Cross City    93  75  94  77  91 /  40  40  50  40  50
Apalachicola  94  79  93  80  93 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281429
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

From 12-14Z, dewpoints have been tracking above most model
guidance across the area, particularly near the Gulf coast and in
central parts of our forecast area - roughly bounded by a line
from ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J. The morning sounding from Tallahassee
revealed slightly more moisture in the boundary layer as compared
to 24 hours ago, and significantly less dry air in the 1000-3000ft
AGL layer. This should make the higher surface dewpoints (mid-
upper 70s) more resilient today as compared to yesterday, even
with slightly hotter temperatures (and a well-mixed boundary
layer) expected. The surface dewpoints mixed down closer to 70
degrees by 16Z yesterday, but even an extra hour or two of higher
dewpoints should be sufficient to produce some areas of heat index
readings around 110 degrees in the early afternoon. A Heat
Advisory was issued for those areas, largely described by the
aforementioned bounded region (ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J). We did not
include Bay or Gulf counties in the advisory at this time, as
visible satellite indicated some more dense cloud cover in that
area that may persist for another few hours.

By the hottest time of day for interior portions of the area,
approximately 19-21Z, dewpoints should finally mix down into at
least the lower 70s as deeper mixing occurs. However, near the
coast, higher dewpoints may linger, so heat index readings may
remain around 110 degrees in those areas into the late afternoon.

Very few changes were made to the rest of the forecast. We still
expect highs in the 95-100 degree range in most areas. Isolated to
scattered storms will be possible - mainly in the northwest and
southeast parts of our area, with convection fairly suppressed in
between (parts of SW Georgia and the C/E Florida Panhandle).

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The local region will remain under the eastern periphery of the
mid/upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains. Both the
GFS and latest ECMWF show a possible MCS diving down from the top
of the ridge into our area Wednesday/Wednesday night. At the
surface, a weak area of low pressure will linger over the Tri-
state region. Additionally, deep layer moisture will be increasing
with forecast PWAT values at or above 2.0" by Wednesday. Look for
a return of scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms mainly late afternoon/early evening. It will be hot
with temperatures most inland areas in the mid to upper 90s. A few
spots may reach 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the increasing low
level moisture, max heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria
in some areas.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The mid/upper level pattern across the CONUS become more amplified
as the aforementioned ridge builds and retrogrades to the Four
Corners region and a trough deepens over the east. A frontal
boundary will drop down and stall over the CWA on Friday. The
front will gradually dissipate over the weekend but the weak area
of low pressure may persist into early next week. Also, a ribbon
of deep layer moisture will extend down from the mid-Atlantic
states through the northern Gulf for most of the extended period.
All this will lead to what should be a very active period for
diurnal convection. Afternoon temperatures will generally remain
below average due to all of the clouds and rain.


.Aviation...

[Through 16Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, although a brief period of MVFR-IFR
conditions is possible at VLD around dawn. Isolated convection is
possible this afternoon, but the chances appear too low to mention
at any of the individual TAF sites at this time.


.Marine...

The aforementioned low pressure system in the Gulf will remain
weak enough to allow winds and seas to remain below headline
levels through the week. By this weekend, it`s possible that
cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf. Rain
chances will drastically increase beginning on Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 2 to 3 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  75  99  77  95 /  20  20  40  30  50
Panama City   92  79  94  79  93 /  20  20  40  30  40
Dothan        98  75  98  75  98 /  30  20  40  30  40
Albany        97  75  99  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      95  74  98  76  96 /  20  20  40  30  40
Cross City    93  75  94  77  91 /  40  40  50  40  50
Apalachicola  94  79  93  80  93 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281429
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

From 12-14Z, dewpoints have been tracking above most model
guidance across the area, particularly near the Gulf coast and in
central parts of our forecast area - roughly bounded by a line
from ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J. The morning sounding from Tallahassee
revealed slightly more moisture in the boundary layer as compared
to 24 hours ago, and significantly less dry air in the 1000-3000ft
AGL layer. This should make the higher surface dewpoints (mid-
upper 70s) more resilient today as compared to yesterday, even
with slightly hotter temperatures (and a well-mixed boundary
layer) expected. The surface dewpoints mixed down closer to 70
degrees by 16Z yesterday, but even an extra hour or two of higher
dewpoints should be sufficient to produce some areas of heat index
readings around 110 degrees in the early afternoon. A Heat
Advisory was issued for those areas, largely described by the
aforementioned bounded region (ECP-BGE-MGR-VLD-40J). We did not
include Bay or Gulf counties in the advisory at this time, as
visible satellite indicated some more dense cloud cover in that
area that may persist for another few hours.

By the hottest time of day for interior portions of the area,
approximately 19-21Z, dewpoints should finally mix down into at
least the lower 70s as deeper mixing occurs. However, near the
coast, higher dewpoints may linger, so heat index readings may
remain around 110 degrees in those areas into the late afternoon.

Very few changes were made to the rest of the forecast. We still
expect highs in the 95-100 degree range in most areas. Isolated to
scattered storms will be possible - mainly in the northwest and
southeast parts of our area, with convection fairly suppressed in
between (parts of SW Georgia and the C/E Florida Panhandle).

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The local region will remain under the eastern periphery of the
mid/upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains. Both the
GFS and latest ECMWF show a possible MCS diving down from the top
of the ridge into our area Wednesday/Wednesday night. At the
surface, a weak area of low pressure will linger over the Tri-
state region. Additionally, deep layer moisture will be increasing
with forecast PWAT values at or above 2.0" by Wednesday. Look for
a return of scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms mainly late afternoon/early evening. It will be hot
with temperatures most inland areas in the mid to upper 90s. A few
spots may reach 100 degrees on Wednesday. With the increasing low
level moisture, max heat indices may reach heat advisory criteria
in some areas.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The mid/upper level pattern across the CONUS become more amplified
as the aforementioned ridge builds and retrogrades to the Four
Corners region and a trough deepens over the east. A frontal
boundary will drop down and stall over the CWA on Friday. The
front will gradually dissipate over the weekend but the weak area
of low pressure may persist into early next week. Also, a ribbon
of deep layer moisture will extend down from the mid-Atlantic
states through the northern Gulf for most of the extended period.
All this will lead to what should be a very active period for
diurnal convection. Afternoon temperatures will generally remain
below average due to all of the clouds and rain.


.Aviation...

[Through 16Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period, although a brief period of MVFR-IFR
conditions is possible at VLD around dawn. Isolated convection is
possible this afternoon, but the chances appear too low to mention
at any of the individual TAF sites at this time.


.Marine...

The aforementioned low pressure system in the Gulf will remain
weak enough to allow winds and seas to remain below headline
levels through the week. By this weekend, it`s possible that
cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf. Rain
chances will drastically increase beginning on Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Rain chances will steadily increase as the week progresses. Five day
rain totals are estimated to be 2 to 3 inches near the Florida
coast, particularly the Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1 to 2 inches is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the heaviest
rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  75  99  77  95 /  20  20  40  30  50
Panama City   92  79  94  79  93 /  20  20  40  30  40
Dothan        98  75  98  75  98 /  30  20  40  30  40
Albany        97  75  99  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  40
Valdosta      95  74  98  76  96 /  20  20  40  30  40
Cross City    93  75  94  77  91 /  40  40  50  40  50
Apalachicola  94  79  93  80  93 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Decatur-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT




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