Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KTAE 301512
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Previous fcst is essentially well on track and the only significant
change made on this update was to up PoPs 10% across the board
for this afternoon, with plenty of deep layer moisture still
advecting in off the Gulf of Mexico on SE Flow. This morning`s TAE
sounding came in with 1.86" of PWAT and significant cooling
between 700 and 400 mb. This, along with backing data from the
GOES Blended TPW product and our very active 09 UTC local WRF run
was enough to convince me that the upcoming drying effects of the
Upper Level Ridge are still a day away.

&&

.Prev Discussion [551 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.


.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  50  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  40  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  60  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  60  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  60  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  50  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301512
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Previous fcst is essentially well on track and the only significant
change made on this update was to up PoPs 10% across the board
for this afternoon, with plenty of deep layer moisture still
advecting in off the Gulf of Mexico on SE Flow. This morning`s TAE
sounding came in with 1.86" of PWAT and significant cooling
between 700 and 400 mb. This, along with backing data from the
GOES Blended TPW product and our very active 09 UTC local WRF run
was enough to convince me that the upcoming drying effects of the
Upper Level Ridge are still a day away.

&&

.Prev Discussion [551 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.


.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  50  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  40  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  60  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  60  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  60  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  50  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  40  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300951
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
551 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [320 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still
be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon
for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest
chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs
around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more
widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after
sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to
scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern
sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid
90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a
few spots with high dewpoints.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  40  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  50  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  40  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  20  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300951
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
551 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [320 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still
be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon
for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest
chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs
around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more
widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after
sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to
scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern
sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid
90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a
few spots with high dewpoints.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  40  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  50  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  40  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  20  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300720
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still
be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon
for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest
chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs
around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more
widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after
sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to
scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern
sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid
90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a
few spots with high dewpoints.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] Some patches of MVFR visibility are possible
around sunrise this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through the day outside of scattered afternoon convection.
The greatest convective coverage is expected to be around DHN and
ABY with somewhat less activity to the south.

&&

.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  40  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  50  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  40  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  20  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300720
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging will dominate the area today. There will still
be enough deep moisture and instability around in the afternoon
for some scattered convection. The CAM ensemble shows the highest
chances across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia with PoPs
around 50% expected. Lack of forcing should preclude more
widespread coverage today with most convection diminishing after
sunset tonight. However, some of the CAMs do hint at isolated to
scattered convection lingering past sunset across the eastern
sections of the area. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid
90s today with heat indices along the coast approaching 105 in a
few spots with high dewpoints.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Sunday] Some patches of MVFR visibility are possible
around sunrise this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through the day outside of scattered afternoon convection.
The greatest convective coverage is expected to be around DHN and
ABY with somewhat less activity to the south.

&&

.Marine...

A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  95  73  96 /  40  20  40  10  30
Panama City   91  79  92  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  95  74  97 /  50  20  30  10  30
Albany        95  74  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  10  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  72  95 /  50  50  40  10  30
Cross City    94  74  93  72  94 /  40  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  90  77  91 /  20  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP








000
FXUS62 KTAE 292351
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A tropical wave coming ashore to our west will mean slight chances
for rain tonight in our westernmost zones. Convection to our east
that formed off of a boundary from storms earlier today may also
affect the easternmost parts of our forecast area tonight.
Otherwise, tonight will be cloudy with lows in the low to mid 70s,
upper 70s along the immediate coast. Patchy light fog will be
possible in the early morning hours, primarily in southwest Georgia.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] Shower activity appears to be over for most
area terminals this evening. However, one or two could stray close
to VLD. Overnight, we expect most areas to see a period of MVFR
visibility. Some guidance suggests low clouds developing at ABY and
VLD, but we have kept them scattered for now due to lower
confidence. Convection will fire once again on Saturday. Greatest
coverage is expected across northern areas including DHN and ABY
will somewhat less activity to the south.

&&

.Prev Discussion [227 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave
will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still
expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama,
and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and
scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to
warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday.

Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper
ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs
than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection.
Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Marine...
The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal
waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light
southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  40  20
Panama City   78  90  77  91  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        73  93  74  94  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
Albany        73  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      73  94  72  93  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
Cross City    74  93  73  92  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  78  90  76  90  76 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...CAMP







000
FXUS62 KTAE 292351
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
751 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A tropical wave coming ashore to our west will mean slight chances
for rain tonight in our westernmost zones. Convection to our east
that formed off of a boundary from storms earlier today may also
affect the easternmost parts of our forecast area tonight.
Otherwise, tonight will be cloudy with lows in the low to mid 70s,
upper 70s along the immediate coast. Patchy light fog will be
possible in the early morning hours, primarily in southwest Georgia.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] Shower activity appears to be over for most
area terminals this evening. However, one or two could stray close
to VLD. Overnight, we expect most areas to see a period of MVFR
visibility. Some guidance suggests low clouds developing at ABY and
VLD, but we have kept them scattered for now due to lower
confidence. Convection will fire once again on Saturday. Greatest
coverage is expected across northern areas including DHN and ABY
will somewhat less activity to the south.

&&

.Prev Discussion [227 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave
will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still
expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama,
and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and
scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to
warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday.

Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper
ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs
than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection.
Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.


.Marine...
The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal
waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light
southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  74  93  73 /  20  40  20  40  20
Panama City   78  90  77  91  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        73  93  74  94  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
Albany        73  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      73  94  72  93  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
Cross City    74  93  73  92  72 /  30  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  78  90  76  90  76 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...CAMP








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291827
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As expected, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have
either moved inland or developed over land areas this afternoon.
So far all convection over land is confined to the Florida zones,
most concentrated in the panhandle. This activity will diminish by
late this evening, setting up a fairly typical late summer night
with dry weather and lows in the lower 70s.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Deepest moisture associated with northward moving tropical wave
will be west and north of the area on Saturday. However, still
expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Best chances expected across Georgia, southeast Alabama,
and down the I-75 corridor. With ridge building aloft and
scattered nature of convection, temperatures should be able to
warm into the mid 90s for most locations on Saturday.

Large-scale forcing will be even lower by Sunday, with the upper
ridge still firmly in place. This should yield even lower PoPs
than Saturday, with the seabreeze driving the convection.
Another warm day is likely with mid 90s for highs once again.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions can be
expected due to convection for the remainder of the
afternoon/evening, especially at ECP and TLH. Chances will
diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY, and VLD.
Convection will diminish by late this evening with patchy fog
possible at TAF sites in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.Marine...
The subtropical ridge will be positioned north of the coastal
waters through early next week. As a result, expect to see light
southerly to southeasterly flow continue through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  74  93  73 /  30  40  20  40  20
Panama City   78  90  77  91  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
Dothan        73  93  74  94  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
Albany        73  94  73  95  73 /  10  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      73  94  72  93  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
Cross City    74  93  73  92  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  78  90  76  90  76 /  40  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...CAMP









000
FXUS62 KTAE 291347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...

The influx of deep moisture across the region has begun and the 12z
KTAE sounding shows PW has increased to near 1.50". Forecast
soundings further increase PWs to around 2.0" this afternoon. Local
radars indicate a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
south of our panhandle coastal waters (beyond 60 nm) with only
isolated to scattered convection across our marine area. This
activity will continue to lift northward through the day. This along
with daytime heating and convection initiating along the sea breeze
will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
Tri-state area this afternoon and evening. PoPs for today look
reasonable as well as forecast max temps. Max temperatures across
the Florida zones have been adjusted down a few degrees to account
for the increasing cloud cover and higher rain chanceS.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

.Prev Discussion [233 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 291347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...

The influx of deep moisture across the region has begun and the 12z
KTAE sounding shows PW has increased to near 1.50". Forecast
soundings further increase PWs to around 2.0" this afternoon. Local
radars indicate a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
south of our panhandle coastal waters (beyond 60 nm) with only
isolated to scattered convection across our marine area. This
activity will continue to lift northward through the day. This along
with daytime heating and convection initiating along the sea breeze
will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
Tri-state area this afternoon and evening. PoPs for today look
reasonable as well as forecast max temps. Max temperatures across
the Florida zones have been adjusted down a few degrees to account
for the increasing cloud cover and higher rain chanceS.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

.Prev Discussion [233 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291346
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...

The influx of deep moisture across the region has begun and the 12z
KTAE sounding shows PW has increased to near 1.50". Forecast
soundings further increase PWs to around 2.0" this afternoon. Local
radars indicate a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
south of our panhandle coastal waters (beyond 60 nm) with only
isolated to scattered convection across our marine area. This
activity will continue to lift northward through the day. This along
with daytime heating and convection initiating along the sea breeze
will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
Tri-state area this afternoon and evening. PoPs for today look
reasonable as well as forecast max temps. Max temperatures across
the Florida zones have been adjusted down a few degrees to account
for the increasing cloud cover and higher rain chanceS.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

.Prev Discussion [233 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291346
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...

The influx of deep moisture across the region has begun and the 12z
KTAE sounding shows PW has increased to near 1.50". Forecast
soundings further increase PWs to around 2.0" this afternoon. Local
radars indicate a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
south of our panhandle coastal waters (beyond 60 nm) with only
isolated to scattered convection across our marine area. This
activity will continue to lift northward through the day. This along
with daytime heating and convection initiating along the sea breeze
will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
Tri-state area this afternoon and evening. PoPs for today look
reasonable as well as forecast max temps. Max temperatures across
the Florida zones have been adjusted down a few degrees to account
for the increasing cloud cover and higher rain chanceS.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

.Prev Discussion [233 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 290633
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290633
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Aside from the possibility of isolated showers over our coastal
waters, no rain is expected for the area tonight. Deep layer ridging
will continue to build through the weekend, leaving us with another
cool and clear night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s
along the immediate coastline.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] A brief period of MVFR visibility is expected
at VLD before sunrise sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be
spreading northward from the Gulf of Mexico from the late morning
through afternoon hours. Overall coverage of storms will be pretty
high and warranted an explicit mention in the TAFs. MVFR conditions
will be possible in the convection.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak tropical wave is forecast to lift north across the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, pushing well inland by late Saturday. With a
ridge building aloft over the region through the weekend, the best
lift associated with the wave will likely be west of the forecast
area. However, expect to see deep layer moisture increase from
south to north across the area during the day on Friday, with
higher rain chances primarily over the southern half of the
area. The deep moisture will remain in place through Saturday,
with good chance to likely PoPs in the forecast once again.

Temperatures will vary from north to south on Friday, with higher
max temps across Georgia/Alabama where PoPs will be lower (lower
90s vs. mid 90s). With more widespread coverage on Saturday, high
temps should only reach the lower 90s everywhere.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.


.Marine...
Winds will turn to the southeast tonight and then south on Friday
as a weak tropical wave moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The onshore flow, which should remain below 15 knots, will
continue into early next week.


.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture with higher relative humidity values will
return beginning Friday. No fire weather at least through the
upcoming weekend.


.Hydrology...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  93  74  92  74 /  10  50  30  50  30
Panama City   75  91  77  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Dothan        68  95  74  92  73 /   0  30  20  60  30
Albany        66  96  73  93  74 /   0  20  20  60  40
Valdosta      66  94  72  93  72 /   0  40  20  50  30
Cross City    70  92  73  92  72 /  10  50  40  50  20
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  76 /  10  60  40  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 281858
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Isolated showers continue mainly beyond 20 miles offshore showing
little movement. Overnight we will see an increase in convection
across the coastal waters as tropical moisture surges northward on
the east side of a tropical wave heading toward Texas. Some of this
activity may reach the coastal areas before daybreak. Otherwise, no
rain is expected. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s along
the immediate coast to the mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak tropical wave is forecast to lift north across the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, pushing well inland by late Saturday. With a
ridge building aloft over the region through the weekend, the best
lift associated with the wave will likely be west of the forecast
area. However, expect to see deep layer moisture increase from
south to north across the area during the day on Friday, with
higher rain chances primarily over the southern half of the
area. The deep moisture will remain in place through Saturday,
with good chance to likely PoPs in the forecast once again.

Temperatures will vary from north to south on Friday, with higher
max temps across Georgia/Alabama where PoPs will be lower (lower
90s vs. mid 90s). With more widespread coverage on Saturday, high
temps should only reach the lower 90s everywhere.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] A brief period of MVFR VIS is possible with
fog at VLD around sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will be
spreading inland from the Gulf mainly after daybreak. With the
exception of ECP, the convection should reach the TAF sites after
18z Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will turn to the southeast tonight and then south on Friday
as a weak tropical wave moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The onshore flow, which should remain below 15 knots, will
continue into early next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture with higher relative humidity values will
return beginning Friday. No fire weather at least through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and
Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  93  74  92  74 /  10  50  30  50  30
Panama City   75  91  77  89  77 /  10  60  40  50  30
Dothan        68  95  74  92  73 /   0  30  20  60  30
Albany        66  96  73  93  74 /   0  20  20  60  40
Valdosta      66  94  72  93  72 /   0  40  20  50  30
Cross City    70  92  73  92  72 /  10  50  40  50  20
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  76 /  10  60  40  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON









000
FXUS62 KTAE 281357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Update...

The 12z KTAE sounding is very dry with a PWAT of 0.96", which is
about half of normal. The profile also shows mostly light and
variable winds through a deep layer as you would expect with stacked
high pressure. A few showers have developed offshore from the land
breeze but we don`t expect any convection over land areas today.
Highs will be above normal in the mid to upper 90s away from the
immediate coast.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] Limited cloud cover is expected with VFR
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief MVFR VIS is possible
with fog at VLD closer to sunrise.

.Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
We will continue to be under the influence of a very dry air mass
and a weakening surface high pressure ridge today, which will lead
to another dry and mostly sunny forecast. Projected PWATs and
925mb mixing ratios at 18Z today are around the 1st percentile for
this time of year, or about 2.5-3.0 standard deviations below
normal. This degree of dry air should yield surface dewpoints in
the 50s, except near the coast. Despite widespread highs in the
mid-90s expected today, the unusually low dewpoints should make it
feel much less humid than is typical of late August. Lows tonight
will be slightly warmer than this morning, but mid-upper 60s are
still likely in many areas, particularly north of Interstate-10.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Deep layer moisture will be advected northward on Friday in
advance of a shortwave moving into the Mississippi Valley. The
PoP will have a north to south gradient with the highest PoPs
(~60%) near the coast tapering down to just 20% across the
northern counties. Both the NAM and GFS show PWAT values rising
above 2 inches across the area on Friday and Saturday, so some
localized heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but the
available forcing is not currently expected to be enough to
produce widespread heavy rain. High temperatures are expected to
be in the mid 90s, and with an increase in dewpoints, heat indices
are expected to reach the 100-105 range across the southern
portions of the area on Friday afternoon and across most of the
area by Saturday afternoon.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region. This along with additional
shortwave energy translating eastward from the western states will
effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS by
early next week. At the surface, the east to west ridge axis will
extend across or just north of our CWA with moist onshore flow
continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture along with
daytime heating and added instability, look for near to above
seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max
temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A very dry air mass across the region and the recent development of
drought conditions over parts of the area may contribute to an
increased fire danger today. However, durations of low RH and wind
speeds are expected to be too limited to create red flag conditions.
Durations of RH below 28% in Leon County are expected to be around
2-3 hours, which is not sufficient for a Red Flag Warning. However,
ERC values are projected to be above 40, so Leon County could be
close to observing red flag conditions. Greater moisture will
return by Friday with higher RH values.

&&

.Hydrology...
A significant increase in deep layer moisture is expected for
Friday into Saturday with scattered convection. Some locally
heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but widespread
heavy rain does not look likely at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   97  70  95  74  94 /   0   0  50  40  50
Panama City   91  75  90  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  60
Dothan        95  68  94  73  94 /   0   0  30  30  60
Albany        96  67  96  73  95 /   0   0  20  20  60
Valdosta      94  67  94  72  95 /  10   0  40  30  50
Cross City    94  70  93  73  94 /  10  10  50  40  50
Apalachicola  90  75  89  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Update...

The 12z KTAE sounding is very dry with a PWAT of 0.96", which is
about half of normal. The profile also shows mostly light and
variable winds through a deep layer as you would expect with stacked
high pressure. A few showers have developed offshore from the land
breeze but we don`t expect any convection over land areas today.
Highs will be above normal in the mid to upper 90s away from the
immediate coast.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] Limited cloud cover is expected with VFR
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief MVFR VIS is possible
with fog at VLD closer to sunrise.

.Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
We will continue to be under the influence of a very dry air mass
and a weakening surface high pressure ridge today, which will lead
to another dry and mostly sunny forecast. Projected PWATs and
925mb mixing ratios at 18Z today are around the 1st percentile for
this time of year, or about 2.5-3.0 standard deviations below
normal. This degree of dry air should yield surface dewpoints in
the 50s, except near the coast. Despite widespread highs in the
mid-90s expected today, the unusually low dewpoints should make it
feel much less humid than is typical of late August. Lows tonight
will be slightly warmer than this morning, but mid-upper 60s are
still likely in many areas, particularly north of Interstate-10.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Deep layer moisture will be advected northward on Friday in
advance of a shortwave moving into the Mississippi Valley. The
PoP will have a north to south gradient with the highest PoPs
(~60%) near the coast tapering down to just 20% across the
northern counties. Both the NAM and GFS show PWAT values rising
above 2 inches across the area on Friday and Saturday, so some
localized heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but the
available forcing is not currently expected to be enough to
produce widespread heavy rain. High temperatures are expected to
be in the mid 90s, and with an increase in dewpoints, heat indices
are expected to reach the 100-105 range across the southern
portions of the area on Friday afternoon and across most of the
area by Saturday afternoon.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region. This along with additional
shortwave energy translating eastward from the western states will
effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS by
early next week. At the surface, the east to west ridge axis will
extend across or just north of our CWA with moist onshore flow
continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture along with
daytime heating and added instability, look for near to above
seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max
temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A very dry air mass across the region and the recent development of
drought conditions over parts of the area may contribute to an
increased fire danger today. However, durations of low RH and wind
speeds are expected to be too limited to create red flag conditions.
Durations of RH below 28% in Leon County are expected to be around
2-3 hours, which is not sufficient for a Red Flag Warning. However,
ERC values are projected to be above 40, so Leon County could be
close to observing red flag conditions. Greater moisture will
return by Friday with higher RH values.

&&

.Hydrology...
A significant increase in deep layer moisture is expected for
Friday into Saturday with scattered convection. Some locally
heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but widespread
heavy rain does not look likely at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   97  70  95  74  94 /   0   0  50  40  50
Panama City   91  75  90  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  60
Dothan        95  68  94  73  94 /   0   0  30  30  60
Albany        96  67  96  73  95 /   0   0  20  20  60
Valdosta      94  67  94  72  95 /  10   0  40  30  50
Cross City    94  70  93  73  94 /  10  10  50  40  50
Apalachicola  90  75  89  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 280658
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
We will continue to be under the influence of a very dry air mass
and a weakening surface high pressure ridge today, which will lead
to another dry and mostly sunny forecast. Projected PWATs and
925mb mixing ratios at 18Z today are around the 1st percentile for
this time of year, or about 2.5-3.0 standard deviations below
normal. This degree of dry air should yield surface dewpoints in
the 50s, except near the coast. Despite widespread highs in the
mid-90s expected today, the unusually low dewpoints should make it
feel much less humid than is typical of late August. Lows tonight
will be slightly warmer than this morning, but mid-upper 60s are
still likely in many areas, particularly north of Interstate-10.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Deep layer moisture will be advected northward on Friday in
advance of a shortwave moving into the Mississippi Valley. The
PoP will have a north to south gradient with the highest PoPs
(~60%) near the coast tapering down to just 20% across the
northern counties. Both the NAM and GFS show PWAT values rising
above 2 inches across the area on Friday and Saturday, so some
localized heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but the
available forcing is not currently expected to be enough to
produce widespread heavy rain. High temperatures are expected to
be in the mid 90s, and with an increase in dewpoints, heat indices
are expected to reach the 100-105 range across the southern
portions of the area on Friday afternoon and across most of the
area by Saturday afternoon.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region. This along with additional
shortwave energy translating eastward from the western states will
effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS by
early next week. At the surface, the east to west ridge axis will
extend across or just north of our CWA with moist onshore flow
continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture along with
daytime heating and added instability, look for near to above
seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max
temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] Limited cloud cover is expected with VFR
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief MVFR VIS is possible
with fog at VLD closer to sunrise.

&&

.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A very dry air mass across the region and the recent development of
drought conditions over parts of the area may contribute to an
increased fire danger today. However, durations of low RH and wind
speeds are expected to be too limited to create red flag conditions.
Durations of RH below 28% in Leon County are expected to be around
2-3 hours, which is not sufficient for a Red Flag Warning. However,
ERC values are projected to be above 40, so Leon County could be
close to observing red flag conditions. Greater moisture will
return by Friday with higher RH values.

&&

.Hydrology...
A significant increase in deep layer moisture is expected for
Friday into Saturday with scattered convection. Some locally
heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but widespread
heavy rain does not look likely at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   97  70  95  74  94 /   0   0  50  40  50
Panama City   91  75  90  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  60
Dothan        95  68  94  73  94 /   0   0  30  30  60
Albany        96  67  96  73  95 /   0   0  20  20  60
Valdosta      94  67  94  72  95 /  10   0  40  30  50
Cross City    94  70  93  73  94 /  10  10  50  40  50
Apalachicola  90  75  89  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280658
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
We will continue to be under the influence of a very dry air mass
and a weakening surface high pressure ridge today, which will lead
to another dry and mostly sunny forecast. Projected PWATs and
925mb mixing ratios at 18Z today are around the 1st percentile for
this time of year, or about 2.5-3.0 standard deviations below
normal. This degree of dry air should yield surface dewpoints in
the 50s, except near the coast. Despite widespread highs in the
mid-90s expected today, the unusually low dewpoints should make it
feel much less humid than is typical of late August. Lows tonight
will be slightly warmer than this morning, but mid-upper 60s are
still likely in many areas, particularly north of Interstate-10.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Deep layer moisture will be advected northward on Friday in
advance of a shortwave moving into the Mississippi Valley. The
PoP will have a north to south gradient with the highest PoPs
(~60%) near the coast tapering down to just 20% across the
northern counties. Both the NAM and GFS show PWAT values rising
above 2 inches across the area on Friday and Saturday, so some
localized heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but the
available forcing is not currently expected to be enough to
produce widespread heavy rain. High temperatures are expected to
be in the mid 90s, and with an increase in dewpoints, heat indices
are expected to reach the 100-105 range across the southern
portions of the area on Friday afternoon and across most of the
area by Saturday afternoon.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region. This along with additional
shortwave energy translating eastward from the western states will
effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS by
early next week. At the surface, the east to west ridge axis will
extend across or just north of our CWA with moist onshore flow
continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture along with
daytime heating and added instability, look for near to above
seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain chances, max
temps will generally be above climo in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] Limited cloud cover is expected with VFR
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief MVFR VIS is possible
with fog at VLD closer to sunrise.

&&

.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A very dry air mass across the region and the recent development of
drought conditions over parts of the area may contribute to an
increased fire danger today. However, durations of low RH and wind
speeds are expected to be too limited to create red flag conditions.
Durations of RH below 28% in Leon County are expected to be around
2-3 hours, which is not sufficient for a Red Flag Warning. However,
ERC values are projected to be above 40, so Leon County could be
close to observing red flag conditions. Greater moisture will
return by Friday with higher RH values.

&&

.Hydrology...
A significant increase in deep layer moisture is expected for
Friday into Saturday with scattered convection. Some locally
heavy rainfall rates and amounts are possible, but widespread
heavy rain does not look likely at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   97  70  95  74  94 /   0   0  50  40  50
Panama City   91  75  90  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  60
Dothan        95  68  94  73  94 /   0   0  30  30  60
Albany        96  67  96  73  95 /   0   0  20  20  60
Valdosta      94  67  94  72  95 /  10   0  40  30  50
Cross City    94  70  93  73  94 /  10  10  50  40  50
Apalachicola  90  75  89  77  90 /  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 280017
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure stacked over the southeastern U.S. and dry air aloft
will mean for clear skies and light to calm winds tonight. These
conditions will allow for temperatures to dip below normal values
for this time of year- into the mid 60s in south-central Georgia,
upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at area terminals. The only exception
could be a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD before sunrise.
Winds will be light.

&&

.Prev Discussion [254 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west
ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.


.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.


.Fire Weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in
Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time.


.Hydrology...

There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  40
Panama City   75  92  75  91  78 /  10   0  10  50  50
Dothan        67  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  30  30
Albany        65  96  66  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      64  95  67  95  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Cross City    67  94  69  94  74 /   0  10  20  50  50
Apalachicola  73  91  74  90  79 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280017
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure stacked over the southeastern U.S. and dry air aloft
will mean for clear skies and light to calm winds tonight. These
conditions will allow for temperatures to dip below normal values
for this time of year- into the mid 60s in south-central Georgia,
upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at area terminals. The only exception
could be a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD before sunrise.
Winds will be light.

&&

.Prev Discussion [254 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west
ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.


.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.


.Fire Weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in
Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time.


.Hydrology...

There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  40
Panama City   75  92  75  91  78 /  10   0  10  50  50
Dothan        67  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  30  30
Albany        65  96  66  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      64  95  67  95  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Cross City    67  94  69  94  74 /   0  10  20  50  50
Apalachicola  73  91  74  90  79 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 271854
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer high pressure will continue to build over the forecast
area overnight. The dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to
fall several degrees below normal tonight, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west
ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals. Winds will be very
light.

&&

.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in
Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  40
Panama City   75  92  75  91  78 /  10   0  10  50  50
Dothan        67  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  30  30
Albany        65  96  66  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      64  95  67  95  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Cross City    67  94  69  94  74 /   0  10  20  50  50
Apalachicola  73  91  74  90  79 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271854
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer high pressure will continue to build over the forecast
area overnight. The dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to
fall several degrees below normal tonight, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

We will see one more day of dry conditions on Thursday. Then, deep
layer moisture will be pulled northward from the GOMEX in advance of
a shortwave moving out of the plains and into the Mississippi Valley
on Friday. PoPs will be tapered highest south (50%) to lowest north
(20%) Friday afternoon and evening. Max temperatures will be in the
mid 90s both days with heat indices possibly elevating into the 100
to 105 range for the lower 2/3rd of our CWA on Friday.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The shortwave over the Midwest will gradually dampen out as it
lifts across the Great Lakes region Saturday. This along with
additional shortwave energy translating eastward from the western
states will effectively set up nearly zonal flow across most of
the CONUS by early next week. At the surface, the east to west
ridge axis will extend across or just north of our CWA with moist
onshore flow continuing. With a return of deep layer moisture
along with daytime heating and added instability, look for near to
above seasonal PoPs each day. Despite the increase in rain
chances, max temps will generally be above climo in the lower to
mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals. Winds will be very
light.

&&

.Marine...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas 3 feet or
less are expected to prevail through Labor Day.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A dry airmass will remain in place through Thursday before the
low-levels begin to moisten once again. Humidity values will bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s Thursday afternoon away from the coast.
Conditions will approach Red Flag conditions across the region.
However, with very light winds in place across Alabama, sufficient
soil moisture in Georgia, and limited durations of critical RH in
Florida, no Red Flag products are needed at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

There are no hydrological concerns at the present time with little
to rain expected for the couple of days. Scattered convection is
expected to return for Friday into the weekend, but flooding is
not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  95  70  95  74 /   0   0  10  40  40
Panama City   75  92  75  91  78 /  10   0  10  50  50
Dothan        67  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  30  30
Albany        65  96  66  96  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      64  95  67  95  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Cross City    67  94  69  94  74 /   0  10  20  50  50
Apalachicola  73  91  74  90  79 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities