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000
FXUS62 KTAE 020236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Tri-State region remains in the stubborn zonal flow regime
aloft, with a cool wedge of high pressure at the surface.
Although there will still be some drizzle around tonight, the
threat for light rain is much less than previous nights as the
coolest core of the wedge has retreated north a bit. This is
evident in this evenings 00z sounding where the temperature
difference between the bottom and the top of the inversion is only
about 4 degrees, as opposed to around 10 degrees this time
yesterday. Additionally, the depth of the cool layer has shallowed
about 1kft from yesterday. Essentially all this means is that
isentropic surfaces will be sloped less and over a narrower
vertical window, resulting in very weak (if any) low level
isentropic ascent. The best chance for any light rain tonight will
be across southeast Alabama and parts of the far western Florida
panhandle. Rain generated along a stationary front in the
Mississippi Valley will drift east into these areas tonight, though
with low layer flow veering westerly and a rather uniform zonal
temperature gradient, expect rain to be on a weakening trend.

The weakening winds will also increase the chances for widespread
fog overnight, which is already occurring in most locations. The
question becomes just how dense will the fog become. If the winds
are able to go completely calm tonight, expect that the fog will
become quite dense. There are also some signals that sea fog may
begin to develop off the west coast of the Peninsula as high
dewpoint air moves over the cool northeast Gulf shelf waters in
the veering flow. The tricky part will be the timing of this
advection as it will need to occur before sunrise when the near
surface air will begin to warm. Should the fog develop tonight, it
will likely stay socked in all day tomorrow, gradually spreading
west through the Gulf.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...

IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR category at all terminals
tonight. There is much lower confidence as to just how dense fog
will get, however expect at least MVFR visibilities at all
terminals with the potential to fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely
not scatter out tomorrow, and only lift into the MVFR window once
again.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.

By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
overnight lows.


.Marine...
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  70  59  75  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   57  68  59  69  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        50  67  58  76  61 /  30  10  20  10  10
Albany        48  61  57  76  59 /  20  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      53  69  59  78  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
Cross City    60  77  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  57  67  60  68  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 020236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Tri-State region remains in the stubborn zonal flow regime
aloft, with a cool wedge of high pressure at the surface.
Although there will still be some drizzle around tonight, the
threat for light rain is much less than previous nights as the
coolest core of the wedge has retreated north a bit. This is
evident in this evenings 00z sounding where the temperature
difference between the bottom and the top of the inversion is only
about 4 degrees, as opposed to around 10 degrees this time
yesterday. Additionally, the depth of the cool layer has shallowed
about 1kft from yesterday. Essentially all this means is that
isentropic surfaces will be sloped less and over a narrower
vertical window, resulting in very weak (if any) low level
isentropic ascent. The best chance for any light rain tonight will
be across southeast Alabama and parts of the far western Florida
panhandle. Rain generated along a stationary front in the
Mississippi Valley will drift east into these areas tonight, though
with low layer flow veering westerly and a rather uniform zonal
temperature gradient, expect rain to be on a weakening trend.

The weakening winds will also increase the chances for widespread
fog overnight, which is already occurring in most locations. The
question becomes just how dense will the fog become. If the winds
are able to go completely calm tonight, expect that the fog will
become quite dense. There are also some signals that sea fog may
begin to develop off the west coast of the Peninsula as high
dewpoint air moves over the cool northeast Gulf shelf waters in
the veering flow. The tricky part will be the timing of this
advection as it will need to occur before sunrise when the near
surface air will begin to warm. Should the fog develop tonight, it
will likely stay socked in all day tomorrow, gradually spreading
west through the Gulf.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...

IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR category at all terminals
tonight. There is much lower confidence as to just how dense fog
will get, however expect at least MVFR visibilities at all
terminals with the potential to fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely
not scatter out tomorrow, and only lift into the MVFR window once
again.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.

By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
overnight lows.


.Marine...
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  70  59  75  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   57  68  59  69  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        50  67  58  76  61 /  30  10  20  10  10
Albany        48  61  57  76  59 /  20  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      53  69  59  78  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
Cross City    60  77  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  57  67  60  68  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 020236
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Tri-State region remains in the stubborn zonal flow regime
aloft, with a cool wedge of high pressure at the surface.
Although there will still be some drizzle around tonight, the
threat for light rain is much less than previous nights as the
coolest core of the wedge has retreated north a bit. This is
evident in this evenings 00z sounding where the temperature
difference between the bottom and the top of the inversion is only
about 4 degrees, as opposed to around 10 degrees this time
yesterday. Additionally, the depth of the cool layer has shallowed
about 1kft from yesterday. Essentially all this means is that
isentropic surfaces will be sloped less and over a narrower
vertical window, resulting in very weak (if any) low level
isentropic ascent. The best chance for any light rain tonight will
be across southeast Alabama and parts of the far western Florida
panhandle. Rain generated along a stationary front in the
Mississippi Valley will drift east into these areas tonight, though
with low layer flow veering westerly and a rather uniform zonal
temperature gradient, expect rain to be on a weakening trend.

The weakening winds will also increase the chances for widespread
fog overnight, which is already occurring in most locations. The
question becomes just how dense will the fog become. If the winds
are able to go completely calm tonight, expect that the fog will
become quite dense. There are also some signals that sea fog may
begin to develop off the west coast of the Peninsula as high
dewpoint air moves over the cool northeast Gulf shelf waters in
the veering flow. The tricky part will be the timing of this
advection as it will need to occur before sunrise when the near
surface air will begin to warm. Should the fog develop tonight, it
will likely stay socked in all day tomorrow, gradually spreading
west through the Gulf.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...

IFR ceilings will fall into the LIFR category at all terminals
tonight. There is much lower confidence as to just how dense fog
will get, however expect at least MVFR visibilities at all
terminals with the potential to fall to LIFR. Ceilings will likely
not scatter out tomorrow, and only lift into the MVFR window once
again.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.

By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
overnight lows.


.Marine...
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  70  59  75  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   57  68  59  69  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        50  67  58  76  61 /  30  10  20  10  10
Albany        48  61  57  76  59 /  20  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      53  69  59  78  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
Cross City    60  77  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  57  67  60  68  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 012014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. Local radars showed a few, sporadic light showers across the
region, and this may continue into tonight (20% PoP) as weak
isentropic ascent lingers. We expect the low clouds to continue
overnight, with areas of fog developing after midnight. Lows will be
above average- in the 50s.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.

By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
overnight lows.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Low cigs are likely to persist through Monday
morning. We expect predominantly IFR cigs for the remainder of
today, except for occasional MVFR cigs at KTLH and KVLD. Vis will
be MVFR to VFR. Conditions will worsen overnight, with cigs and
Vis falling to LIFR levels at most sites by 06z. Vis will improve
to MVFR by late Monday morning, but cigs will likely remain at IFR
levels through early Monday afternoon. &&

.Marine...
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  70  59  75  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   56  68  59  69  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        52  67  58  76  61 /  20  10  20  10  10
Albany        50  61  57  76  59 /  20  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      54  69  59  78  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
Cross City    58  77  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  58  67  60  68  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 012014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 1 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. Local radars showed a few, sporadic light showers across the
region, and this may continue into tonight (20% PoP) as weak
isentropic ascent lingers. We expect the low clouds to continue
overnight, with areas of fog developing after midnight. Lows will be
above average- in the 50s.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
It continues to be a challenging day time temperature forecast
with the model guidance showing the cold wedge hanging on through
at least 15 UTC. Given the models relatively poor performance with
Sunday`s temperatures, prefer to follow more of a persistence
approach in keeping the wedge around until at least late afternoon
when it seems to make sense that enough mixing could then take
place - along with surface winds picking up more of a southerly
component. With this in mind, Southwestern Georgia would likely be
the last place to see warmer temperatures, so have departures from
guidance as high as 10 degrees in portions of the area on Monday.
Essentially, this has highs in the lower 60s for our northern
zones to as warm as the upper 70s in the Southeast Florida Big
Bend. Obviously, should the cold wedge and cloud cover scatter out
quicker than predicted, warmer high temperatures would occur.

By Tuesday, a building mid level ridge and a warm front lifting
north into the Tennessee Valley will erode whatever cool air is
left, and deliver a warm, but mostly cloudy day across the region
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Only light showers are
expected across the northern portion of the area near to the
surface warm front.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Continued warm weather will start the extended period with
southerly flow in place for Wednesday. High temperatures may end
up approaching 80 degrees in some spots.

By Thursday, a cold front will move through the area, bringing a
chance of light rain and much cooler air. Though rainfall amounts
will be light, guidance this cycle indicates this frontal zone
stalling across the forecast area through much of the weekend,
yielding cool and unsettled conditions. There is some disagreement
on whether a southern stream impulse late in the weekend will
interact with this boundary bringing a round of heavy rain to the
area by Sunday night. For now, will show 30 percent PoPs that far
out given limited model agreement in this scenario. Temperatures
from Thursday through Sunday will be well below normal for
afternoon highs and just a couple degrees below normal for
overnight lows.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Low cigs are likely to persist through Monday
morning. We expect predominantly IFR cigs for the remainder of
today, except for occasional MVFR cigs at KTLH and KVLD. Vis will
be MVFR to VFR. Conditions will worsen overnight, with cigs and
Vis falling to LIFR levels at most sites by 06z. Vis will improve
to MVFR by late Monday morning, but cigs will likely remain at IFR
levels through early Monday afternoon. &&

.Marine...
Winds will continue to decrease across the marine area this
evening and remain low through Tuesday. By Wednesday, southerly
flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
front will move through the area on Thursday, shifting to winds to
offshore and increasing to advisory levels through Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, due to a combination of low transport winds
and mixing heights, dispersion indices will remain quite low on
Monday. More typical dispersion indices will return on Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta late this evening.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  70  59  75  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   56  68  59  69  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        52  67  58  76  61 /  20  10  20  10  10
Albany        50  61  57  76  59 /  20  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      54  69  59  78  60 /  10  10  20  10  10
Cross City    58  77  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  58  67  60  68  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 011408
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. The KTAE sounding showed a nearly-saturated layer from the surface
to 850 mb. The 06 UTC GFS forecasts weak isentropic lift at the
295 K and 300 K levels throughout the day, though recent radar
trends suggest that this lift is probably too weak to support much
rain, and we are only forecasting a slight chance of rain today.

The preponderance of NWP guidance (including MOS, HRRR, LAMP,
SREF, etc.) forecast the low clouds to remain over our region all
day, which will of course affect our high temperature forecast. We
expect highs to range from the mid to upper 50s across most of our
region, except mid 60s around Cross City where there could be a
few breaks in the overcast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Judging from the deep moist layer below 10k
ft in the 12 UTC KTAE sounding, as well as the latest NWP
guidance, the low ceilings this morning are likely to remain
throughout today and tonight. We expect IFR to LIFR cigs today and
overnight. MVFR Vis is likely as well, except for periods of IFR
Vis this morning. IFR Vis is likely to return overnight. Light NE
winds (generally less than 10 KT) will be the rule through
tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.


.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.


.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  54  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   61  55  69  59  70 /  10  10  20  10  10
Dothan        56  51  72  58  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      57  53  76  58  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    64  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  61  57  69  60  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 011408
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. The KTAE sounding showed a nearly-saturated layer from the surface
to 850 mb. The 06 UTC GFS forecasts weak isentropic lift at the
295 K and 300 K levels throughout the day, though recent radar
trends suggest that this lift is probably too weak to support much
rain, and we are only forecasting a slight chance of rain today.

The preponderance of NWP guidance (including MOS, HRRR, LAMP,
SREF, etc.) forecast the low clouds to remain over our region all
day, which will of course affect our high temperature forecast. We
expect highs to range from the mid to upper 50s across most of our
region, except mid 60s around Cross City where there could be a
few breaks in the overcast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Judging from the deep moist layer below 10k
ft in the 12 UTC KTAE sounding, as well as the latest NWP
guidance, the low ceilings this morning are likely to remain
throughout today and tonight. We expect IFR to LIFR cigs today and
overnight. MVFR Vis is likely as well, except for periods of IFR
Vis this morning. IFR Vis is likely to return overnight. Light NE
winds (generally less than 10 KT) will be the rule through
tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.


.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.


.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  54  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   61  55  69  59  70 /  10  10  20  10  10
Dothan        56  51  72  58  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      57  53  76  58  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    64  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  61  57  69  60  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 010825
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 00Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between
about 1000-5000 feet AGL, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of
numerical models maintain some weakly positive omega in this layer
through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast
area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued
low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered
light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry
afternoon across the area, however.

The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of
the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best
chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in
sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and
west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to
Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in
high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees
in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions.
For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as
either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ECP-TLH-VLD
line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high
temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in
these areas, generally 55-60 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 12Z Monday] LIFR to IFR CIGS will prevail over much of the
region early this morning, with CIGS gradually rising during the
daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR
range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day
at ECP, TLH, and VLD. However, LIFR-IFR CIGs are likely to build
back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals
should see some periods of -DZ or -SHRA this morning.

&&

.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  54  76  58  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  55  69  59  70 /  20  10  20  10  10
Dothan        59  51  72  58  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  60  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      66  53  76  58  77 /  50  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  67  57  69  60  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 010825
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 00Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between
about 1000-5000 feet AGL, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of
numerical models maintain some weakly positive omega in this layer
through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast
area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued
low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered
light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry
afternoon across the area, however.

The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of
the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best
chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in
sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and
west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to
Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in
high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees
in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions.
For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as
either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ECP-TLH-VLD
line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high
temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in
these areas, generally 55-60 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 12Z Monday] LIFR to IFR CIGS will prevail over much of the
region early this morning, with CIGS gradually rising during the
daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR
range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day
at ECP, TLH, and VLD. However, LIFR-IFR CIGs are likely to build
back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals
should see some periods of -DZ or -SHRA this morning.

&&

.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  54  76  58  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  55  69  59  70 /  20  10  20  10  10
Dothan        59  51  72  58  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  60  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      66  53  76  58  77 /  50  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  67  57  69  60  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010825
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 00Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between
about 1000-5000 feet AGL, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of
numerical models maintain some weakly positive omega in this layer
through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast
area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued
low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered
light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry
afternoon across the area, however.

The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of
the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best
chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in
sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and
west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to
Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in
high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees
in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions.
For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as
either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ECP-TLH-VLD
line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high
temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in
these areas, generally 55-60 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 12Z Monday] LIFR to IFR CIGS will prevail over much of the
region early this morning, with CIGS gradually rising during the
daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR
range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day
at ECP, TLH, and VLD. However, LIFR-IFR CIGs are likely to build
back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals
should see some periods of -DZ or -SHRA this morning.

&&

.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  54  76  58  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  55  69  59  70 /  20  10  20  10  10
Dothan        59  51  72  58  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  60  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      66  53  76  58  77 /  50  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  67  57  69  60  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010825
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 00Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between
about 1000-5000 feet AGL, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of
numerical models maintain some weakly positive omega in this layer
through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast
area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued
low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered
light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry
afternoon across the area, however.

The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of
the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best
chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in
sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and
west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to
Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in
high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees
in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions.
For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as
either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ECP-TLH-VLD
line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high
temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in
these areas, generally 55-60 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 12Z Monday] LIFR to IFR CIGS will prevail over much of the
region early this morning, with CIGS gradually rising during the
daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR
range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day
at ECP, TLH, and VLD. However, LIFR-IFR CIGs are likely to build
back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals
should see some periods of -DZ or -SHRA this morning.

&&

.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  54  76  58  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  55  69  59  70 /  20  10  20  10  10
Dothan        59  51  72  58  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  60  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      66  53  76  58  77 /  50  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  67  57  69  60  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 010148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A fairly simple southwesterly flow regime continues aloft across
the Southeast this evening. At the surface, a wedge of high
pressure remains intact along the Eastern Seaboard all the way
through the Tri-State region to the Gulf coast. The near surface
northeasterly flow and the very shallow cool, stable layer barely
extends to 1kft before wind starts to veer and the air warms about
5 degrees. With northeasterly trajectories expected to continue
overnight, the cool stable airmass will only be reinforced. Just
above this layer however, heights will begin to rise tonight as
the deep layer synoptic pattern amplifies in response to a
developing low over the Southwest. This will act to compact the
near surface cool layer and steepen the nose of the wedge front.
As it does so, expect the coverage of isentropic drizzle or light
rain to increase. As low-layer flow veers through the night, the
area of drizzle and light rain will halt it`s northwestward spread
and begin to move north, then northeast. This will mean that the
best rain chances through the night will be spread across the Big
Bend of Florida and southern Georgia, with lesser coverage across
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. QPF amounts are expected to
be quite low as an average, though still went with near 100 PoPs
as confidence is relatively high that most locations will receive
at least 0.01" through the night. Some of the hires guidance
suggests there may be a few locations that could receive around a
tenth of an inch. Lows tonight will range from near 40 degrees
across our northernmost GA counties to around 50 degrees along the
Gulf coast and the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

All terminals have fallen to IFR ceilings as of 01z. Expect
ceilings to lower to between 001-004ft through the night. Light
rain or drizzle should be expected at all terminals. Rain will
gradually come to an end tomorrow from southwest to northeast,
with ceilings possibly improving to low-end MVFR by the late
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [301 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.


.Marine...
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing
heights.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  62  54  75  56 / 100  10  10  10  10
Panama City   49  65  55  68  58 /  60  10  10  10  10
Dothan        43  60  51  71  56 /  60  10  10  20  10
Albany        40  53  49  70  56 / 100  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      44  58  53  75  57 / 100  20  10  10  10
Cross City    50  71  56  76  57 /  90  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  52  65  57  68  59 /  90  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 010148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A fairly simple southwesterly flow regime continues aloft across
the Southeast this evening. At the surface, a wedge of high
pressure remains intact along the Eastern Seaboard all the way
through the Tri-State region to the Gulf coast. The near surface
northeasterly flow and the very shallow cool, stable layer barely
extends to 1kft before wind starts to veer and the air warms about
5 degrees. With northeasterly trajectories expected to continue
overnight, the cool stable airmass will only be reinforced. Just
above this layer however, heights will begin to rise tonight as
the deep layer synoptic pattern amplifies in response to a
developing low over the Southwest. This will act to compact the
near surface cool layer and steepen the nose of the wedge front.
As it does so, expect the coverage of isentropic drizzle or light
rain to increase. As low-layer flow veers through the night, the
area of drizzle and light rain will halt it`s northwestward spread
and begin to move north, then northeast. This will mean that the
best rain chances through the night will be spread across the Big
Bend of Florida and southern Georgia, with lesser coverage across
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. QPF amounts are expected to
be quite low as an average, though still went with near 100 PoPs
as confidence is relatively high that most locations will receive
at least 0.01" through the night. Some of the hires guidance
suggests there may be a few locations that could receive around a
tenth of an inch. Lows tonight will range from near 40 degrees
across our northernmost GA counties to around 50 degrees along the
Gulf coast and the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

All terminals have fallen to IFR ceilings as of 01z. Expect
ceilings to lower to between 001-004ft through the night. Light
rain or drizzle should be expected at all terminals. Rain will
gradually come to an end tomorrow from southwest to northeast,
with ceilings possibly improving to low-end MVFR by the late
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [301 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.


.Marine...
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing
heights.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  62  54  75  56 / 100  10  10  10  10
Panama City   49  65  55  68  58 /  60  10  10  10  10
Dothan        43  60  51  71  56 /  60  10  10  20  10
Albany        40  53  49  70  56 / 100  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      44  58  53  75  57 / 100  20  10  10  10
Cross City    50  71  56  76  57 /  90  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  52  65  57  68  59 /  90  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 010148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A fairly simple southwesterly flow regime continues aloft across
the Southeast this evening. At the surface, a wedge of high
pressure remains intact along the Eastern Seaboard all the way
through the Tri-State region to the Gulf coast. The near surface
northeasterly flow and the very shallow cool, stable layer barely
extends to 1kft before wind starts to veer and the air warms about
5 degrees. With northeasterly trajectories expected to continue
overnight, the cool stable airmass will only be reinforced. Just
above this layer however, heights will begin to rise tonight as
the deep layer synoptic pattern amplifies in response to a
developing low over the Southwest. This will act to compact the
near surface cool layer and steepen the nose of the wedge front.
As it does so, expect the coverage of isentropic drizzle or light
rain to increase. As low-layer flow veers through the night, the
area of drizzle and light rain will halt it`s northwestward spread
and begin to move north, then northeast. This will mean that the
best rain chances through the night will be spread across the Big
Bend of Florida and southern Georgia, with lesser coverage across
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. QPF amounts are expected to
be quite low as an average, though still went with near 100 PoPs
as confidence is relatively high that most locations will receive
at least 0.01" through the night. Some of the hires guidance
suggests there may be a few locations that could receive around a
tenth of an inch. Lows tonight will range from near 40 degrees
across our northernmost GA counties to around 50 degrees along the
Gulf coast and the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

All terminals have fallen to IFR ceilings as of 01z. Expect
ceilings to lower to between 001-004ft through the night. Light
rain or drizzle should be expected at all terminals. Rain will
gradually come to an end tomorrow from southwest to northeast,
with ceilings possibly improving to low-end MVFR by the late
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [301 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.


.Marine...
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing
heights.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  62  54  75  56 / 100  10  10  10  10
Panama City   49  65  55  68  58 /  60  10  10  10  10
Dothan        43  60  51  71  56 /  60  10  10  20  10
Albany        40  53  49  70  56 / 100  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      44  58  53  75  57 / 100  20  10  10  10
Cross City    50  71  56  76  57 /  90  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  52  65  57  68  59 /  90  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 010148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A fairly simple southwesterly flow regime continues aloft across
the Southeast this evening. At the surface, a wedge of high
pressure remains intact along the Eastern Seaboard all the way
through the Tri-State region to the Gulf coast. The near surface
northeasterly flow and the very shallow cool, stable layer barely
extends to 1kft before wind starts to veer and the air warms about
5 degrees. With northeasterly trajectories expected to continue
overnight, the cool stable airmass will only be reinforced. Just
above this layer however, heights will begin to rise tonight as
the deep layer synoptic pattern amplifies in response to a
developing low over the Southwest. This will act to compact the
near surface cool layer and steepen the nose of the wedge front.
As it does so, expect the coverage of isentropic drizzle or light
rain to increase. As low-layer flow veers through the night, the
area of drizzle and light rain will halt it`s northwestward spread
and begin to move north, then northeast. This will mean that the
best rain chances through the night will be spread across the Big
Bend of Florida and southern Georgia, with lesser coverage across
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. QPF amounts are expected to
be quite low as an average, though still went with near 100 PoPs
as confidence is relatively high that most locations will receive
at least 0.01" through the night. Some of the hires guidance
suggests there may be a few locations that could receive around a
tenth of an inch. Lows tonight will range from near 40 degrees
across our northernmost GA counties to around 50 degrees along the
Gulf coast and the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...

All terminals have fallen to IFR ceilings as of 01z. Expect
ceilings to lower to between 001-004ft through the night. Light
rain or drizzle should be expected at all terminals. Rain will
gradually come to an end tomorrow from southwest to northeast,
with ceilings possibly improving to low-end MVFR by the late
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [301 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.


.Marine...
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing
heights.


.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  62  54  75  56 / 100  10  10  10  10
Panama City   49  65  55  68  58 /  60  10  10  10  10
Dothan        43  60  51  71  56 /  60  10  10  20  10
Albany        40  53  49  70  56 / 100  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      44  58  53  75  57 / 100  20  10  10  10
Cross City    50  71  56  76  57 /  90  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  52  65  57  68  59 /  90  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 282001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure over New England is bringing northeasterly flow at the
sfc. Strong southerly flow at 850mb is pulling in abundant moisture
over the region. Cool air at the sfc and warm, moist air at 850mb is
creating an overrunning situation since a strong inversion is in
place preventing mixing. Therefore, low stratus clouds will persist
through tonight. Intermittent rain showers and drizzle is likely
particularly over the eastern half of the CWA and the coastal
waters. Thick cloud cover tonight will keep lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
So the big question is whether the cool wedge in place across the
region will begin to breakdown on Sunday as indicated in some of
the models. The GFS is very aggressive with eroding the wedge as
high pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens and then shifts out
into the Western Atlantic. The NAM keeps the wedge in place across
Southern Georgia with some erosion of the cool air across the
Florida zones. Typically, models tend to be a bit too quick to
erode the inversion, so will lean the forecast for Sunday closer
to the NAM solution and show another cool and cloudy day across
the area, with perhaps only some late day improvement in the
Florida counties.

By Monday, southerly flow becomes more established at the surface
with the mid level pattern shifting to a ridge building across
the Western Gulf. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the
area allowing only for a slight chance of showers across our
northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the
building mid level ridge and southerly flow will help temperatures
to finally break into the 70s across much of the area.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The first portion of the long term period will feature a warm
stretch of weather through Wednesday with the mid level ridge
shifting to the Florida Peninsula. By Thursday, a cold front will
move into the region bringing a chance of rain and a return to
cool and cloudy days possibly persisting through Friday. Beyond
that time, the models differ on whether the surface frontal
boundary will dissipate across the area, allowing for cool but
sunny skies next weekend, or remain in place, waiting for the next
southern stream impulse to deliver more rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Low stratus clouds have enveloped the area
today. Ceilings will be MVFR this afternoon decreasing to IFR by
midnight. LIFR conditions are likely in the early morning hours.
Very low ceilings will persist until mid to late morning. Rain
showers or drizzle is possible, particularly at TLH and VLD. Winds
will be northeasterly around 10 knots.

&&

.Marine...
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through tonight
before quickly diminishing on Sunday morning as high pressure
weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low
seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore
flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly
shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory
conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. However, very low dispersion indices are expected
through at least Monday. In fact, dispersion indices tonight may be
higher than the maximum dispersions tomorrow. This is a result of
weakening transport winds, low ceilings, and relatively low mixing
heights.

&&

.Hydrology...
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   49  62  54  75  56 /  40  10  10  10  10
Panama City   50  65  55  68  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Dothan        44  60  51  71  56 /  20  10  10  20  10
Albany        44  53  49  70  56 /  30  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      48  58  53  75  57 /  40  20  10  10  10
Cross City    53  71  56  76  57 /  40  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  54  65  57  68  59 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 281451
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
early this morning; as of 14Z it extended from the coastal waters
through north FL. This was associated with a ribbon of mid-level
(600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models to
persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the
likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result.

Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as
low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion
layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we
expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain
showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain,
enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light
sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the
forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most
places seeing less than 0.10" of rain.

The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic
rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced
by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC
into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of
cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that,
we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures
today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia,
to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones.
These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

The latest set of guidance shows a steady expansion of low
stratus to the north and west today across the area. MVFR CIGS
have already arrived at TLH and VLD and should reach DHN around
17Z. We expect CIGS to stay mostly in the MVFR range during the
day, although some periods of IFR cannot be ruled out. After
sunset, CIGS should continue to lower with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely
tonight. All of the terminals will have a chance for some -RA or
-DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper
ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we
will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty
of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy
conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will
be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds
shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps
to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max
readings in the 70s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see
mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a
chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will
prevail through the end of the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through
Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover
around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday
morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase
to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front
Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  47  67  53  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
Panama City   57  48  61  54  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        54  42  59  49  73 /  10  20  30  30  30
Albany        48  42  58  48  71 /  40  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      49  47  65  54  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
Cross City    57  51  71  56  75 /  60  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  58  51  66  57  71 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 281451
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
early this morning; as of 14Z it extended from the coastal waters
through north FL. This was associated with a ribbon of mid-level
(600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models to
persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the
likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result.

Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as
low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion
layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we
expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain
showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain,
enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light
sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the
forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most
places seeing less than 0.10" of rain.

The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic
rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced
by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC
into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of
cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that,
we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures
today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia,
to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones.
These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

The latest set of guidance shows a steady expansion of low
stratus to the north and west today across the area. MVFR CIGS
have already arrived at TLH and VLD and should reach DHN around
17Z. We expect CIGS to stay mostly in the MVFR range during the
day, although some periods of IFR cannot be ruled out. After
sunset, CIGS should continue to lower with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely
tonight. All of the terminals will have a chance for some -RA or
-DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper
ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we
will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty
of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy
conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will
be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds
shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps
to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max
readings in the 70s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see
mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a
chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will
prevail through the end of the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through
Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover
around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday
morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase
to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front
Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  47  67  53  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
Panama City   57  48  61  54  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        54  42  59  49  73 /  10  20  30  30  30
Albany        48  42  58  48  71 /  40  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      49  47  65  54  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
Cross City    57  51  71  56  75 /  60  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  58  51  66  57  71 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 281451
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
early this morning; as of 14Z it extended from the coastal waters
through north FL. This was associated with a ribbon of mid-level
(600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models to
persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the
likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result.

Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as
low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion
layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we
expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain
showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain,
enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light
sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the
forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most
places seeing less than 0.10" of rain.

The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic
rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced
by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC
into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of
cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that,
we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures
today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia,
to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones.
These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

The latest set of guidance shows a steady expansion of low
stratus to the north and west today across the area. MVFR CIGS
have already arrived at TLH and VLD and should reach DHN around
17Z. We expect CIGS to stay mostly in the MVFR range during the
day, although some periods of IFR cannot be ruled out. After
sunset, CIGS should continue to lower with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely
tonight. All of the terminals will have a chance for some -RA or
-DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper
ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we
will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty
of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy
conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will
be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds
shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps
to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max
readings in the 70s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see
mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a
chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will
prevail through the end of the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through
Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover
around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday
morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase
to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front
Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  47  67  53  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
Panama City   57  48  61  54  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        54  42  59  49  73 /  10  20  30  30  30
Albany        48  42  58  48  71 /  40  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      49  47  65  54  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
Cross City    57  51  71  56  75 /  60  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  58  51  66  57  71 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 280827
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
early this morning; as of 07Z it extended from about 170mi south of
Mobile, AL to Cross City, FL. This was associated with a ribbon of
mid-level (600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models
to persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the
likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result.

Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as
low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion
layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we
expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain
showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain,
enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light
sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the
forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most
places seeing less than 0.10" of rain.

The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic
rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced
by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC
into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of
cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that,
we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures
today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia,
to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones.
These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper
ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we
will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty
of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy
conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will
be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds
shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps
to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max
readings in the 70s.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see
mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a
chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will
prevail through the end of the period.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 06Z Sunday] The latest set of guidance shows a steady
expansion of low stratus to the north and west today across the
area. MVFR CIGS should arrive at TLH and VLD first (around 11Z),
eventually reaching DHN (around 17Z). We expect CIGS to stay mostly
in the MVFR range during the day, although some periods of IFR
cannot be ruled out. After sunset, CIGS should continue to lower
with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely tonight. All of the terminals will have
a chance for some -RA or -DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through
Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover
around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday
morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase
to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  47  67  53  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
Panama City   57  48  61  54  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        54  42  59  49  73 /  10  20  30  30  30
Albany        48  42  58  48  71 /  40  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      49  47  65  54  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
Cross City    57  51  71  56  75 /  60  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  58  51  66  57  71 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 280827
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A thin band of rain has developed over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
early this morning; as of 07Z it extended from about 170mi south of
Mobile, AL to Cross City, FL. This was associated with a ribbon of
mid-level (600-400mb) frontogenesis. This is forecast by most models
to persist through the morning hours. PoPs were increased into the
likely range for the eastern Florida Big Bend as a result.

Rain chances should also expand north into the remainder of the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia later this morning as
low-level isentropic ascent increases near the top of an inversion
layer (900-850mb). As low-level ascent and moisture increase, we
expect low clouds to expand north and west, with additional rain
showers during the day. Outside of more organized areas of rain,
enough weak low-level vertical motion may exist for some light
sprinkles or drizzle, so we included some patchy drizzle in the
forecast as well. Overall, rainfall should be light, with most
places seeing less than 0.10" of rain.

The combination of a relatively thick low cloud layer and periodic
rain or drizzle suggests a very cool day. That notion is reinforced
by model forecasts of a developing surface ridge from central NC
into central GA. That pattern tends to favor maintaining a wedge of
cooler air with northeasterly flow at the surface. Given all that,
we have gone on the cool end of model guidance for high temperatures
today, with highs in the upper 40s across most of southwest Georgia,
to the mid-50s in most of southeast Alabama and our Florida zones.
These values are about 15-20 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The wedge of high pressure at the surface will weaken while upper
ridging builds over the GOMEX and the gulf coastal states. While we
will see drier air filtering in the mid levels, there will be plenty
of moisture in the low levels to keep at least mostly cloudy
conditions in the forecast and patchy mostly light rain. Temps will
be below seasonal levels on Sunday. Then with low level winds
shifting to the southeast along with rising heights, look for temps
to be at or above normal for Monday will all locations seeing max
readings in the 70s.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. We will also see
mostly isolated showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Then a
chance for heavier rain along with thunderstorms for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.
Behind the front, a return to below-normal temperatures will
prevail through the end of the period.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 06Z Sunday] The latest set of guidance shows a steady
expansion of low stratus to the north and west today across the
area. MVFR CIGS should arrive at TLH and VLD first (around 11Z),
eventually reaching DHN (around 17Z). We expect CIGS to stay mostly
in the MVFR range during the day, although some periods of IFR
cannot be ruled out. After sunset, CIGS should continue to lower
with IFR or LIFR CIGS likely tonight. All of the terminals will have
a chance for some -RA or -DZ, mainly between 12Z and 00Z.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will keep winds at advisory levels through
Sunday morning. Through the middle of the week, seas will hover
around 2-4 feet as winds remain elevated in advance of Thursday
morning`s frontal passage. Late in the week seas could increase
to advisory levels again as winds increase behind a cold front
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  47  67  53  74 /  40  30  20  20  20
Panama City   57  48  61  54  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dothan        54  42  59  49  73 /  10  20  30  30  30
Albany        48  42  58  48  71 /  40  40  30  30  30
Valdosta      49  47  65  54  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
Cross City    57  51  71  56  75 /  60  40  20  20  20
Apalachicola  58  51  66  57  71 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 270910
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s across
the northwest to the low to mid 60s across the southeast big bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.

&&

.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   58  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        58  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        59  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      61  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    64  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  62  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270910
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s across
the northwest to the low to mid 60s across the southeast big bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.

&&

.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   58  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        58  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        59  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      61  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    64  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  62  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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