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000
FXUS62 KTAE 311531
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dry and seasonably cool day is on tap as surface high pressure
passes by to the north. Temperatures are on track to reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. No
significant changes are need to the forecast grids this morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.


.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.


.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 311531
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dry and seasonably cool day is on tap as surface high pressure
passes by to the north. Temperatures are on track to reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. No
significant changes are need to the forecast grids this morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.


.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.


.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 311124
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our forecast area early Friday was in south FL,
with higher pressure building across the Southeast. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed a southern stream ridge developing over
the Southern Plains, and this ridge will be spreading rapidly
eastward today. After a cool start this morning (with temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost), high temperatures will
reach the upper 50s (around Dothan and Albany) to mid 60s (around
Cross City). Sunshine will be partially filtered at times through
thin high clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Occasional high cigs (around 25 kft) today will
not impact general aviation. Vis will be unrestricted. Light N winds
early this morning will veer to the E or even ESE at 5 to
9 KT by this afternoon. Some of the NWP guidance is forecasting MVFR
cigs around KECP and KDHN by daybreak Sunday, but we will wait to
address this possibility on our 18z TAF package, to see if this
trend continues.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.

&&

.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 310820
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our forecast area early Friday was in south FL,
with higher pressure building across the Southeast. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed a southern stream ridge developing over
the Southern Plains, and this ridge will be spreading rapidly
eastward today. After a cool start this morning (with temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost), high temperatures will
reach the upper 50s (around Dothan and Albany) to mid 60s (around
Cross City). Sunshine will be partially filtered at times through
thin high clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06z Sunday] Occasional high cigs (around 25 kft) will
not impact general aviation. Vis will be unrestricted. Light N
winds in the overnight hours will veer to the E at 5 to 9 KT by
this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.

&&

.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 310820
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our forecast area early Friday was in south FL,
with higher pressure building across the Southeast. Vapor imagery
and upper air data showed a southern stream ridge developing over
the Southern Plains, and this ridge will be spreading rapidly
eastward today. After a cool start this morning (with temperatures
in the lower to mid 30s and patchy frost), high temperatures will
reach the upper 50s (around Dothan and Albany) to mid 60s (around
Cross City). Sunshine will be partially filtered at times through
thin high clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next cold front will affect the area during the day on Sunday
through Sunday night with an increased chance of showers. All of
the available guidance keep the main surface low well north of
the area in the Ohio Valley with minimal instability expected.
Thus, severe weather is not currently expected with this system,
although an isolated rumble of thunder is within the realm of
possibilities, mainly close to the coast.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
A cooler airmass will move in behind the front for Monday night
with a light freeze possible across portions of the area.
However, with the upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant
cool down is not anticipated. The next system will bring rain to
the area by Wednesday into Thursday as an upper low over the
southwestern states ejects into the Western Gulf. There remains
some timing differences with the guidance, so PoPs are spread out
fairly evenly between the two days. Once the timing becomes more
clear, PoPs will probably rise one of the days and fall for the
other. At the moment, most of the guidance keeps the associated
surface low just offshore, which will limit any severe threat.
Another shot of cooler air will follow this system for the end of
the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06z Sunday] Occasional high cigs (around 25 kft) will
not impact general aviation. Vis will be unrestricted. Light N
winds in the overnight hours will veer to the E at 5 to 9 KT by
this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase over the next day with advisory
conditions expected to return on Sunday ahead of a cold front.
Advisory conditions are also possible behind the front for Monday
with improving conditions on Tuesday. By mid to late week, another
system will bring increasing winds and seas once again.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values this afternoon will drop well below 40%, but are still
expected to remain just above locally critical levels. RH values
will increase beginning Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Dispersion values may be rather high on Sunday, primarily
due to strong transport winds.

&&

.Hydrology...
The next system arriving for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame
appears capable of producing around a half inch to inch of rain
across portions of the area with a few localized heavier amounts.
These amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river
levels, but they are unlikely to result in a return to flood
stages at any of the forecast points.

The system for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may be a bit more
significant with 1-2" of rain possible with localized higher
amounts. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  44  67  58  62 /   0   0  40  60  40
Panama City   60  49  64  55  59 /   0   0  70  60  30
Dothan        58  42  64  47  53 /   0   0  80  70  20
Albany        58  39  66  52  56 /   0   0  60  70  30
Valdosta      60  42  70  57  61 /   0   0  20  60  50
Cross City    65  44  72  59  65 /   0   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  59  49  66  60  63 /   0   0  40  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 310205
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure dominates the Southern Appalachians tonight. Light
winds and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below
the freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally
colder locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s
except near 40 along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Saturday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundant moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.


.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.


.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 302047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in across the Southern Appalachians. Light winds
and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the
freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder
locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except
near 40 along the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Satruday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around
sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 302047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in across the Southern Appalachians. Light winds
and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the
freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder
locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except
near 40 along the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Satruday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around
sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300843
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning,
ushering in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will decrease
rapidly during the morning hours with mostly sunny conditions
expected by afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will build across the Southern Appalachians this
evening and remain north of the region before sunrise on Saturday.
Enough wind will probably keep freezing temperatures confined to
the northern zones, closer to the center of the high pressure
area.

High pressure moves quickly east of the region on Saturday with
southerly flow starting the moistening trend late in the
afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly, generally in the
lower 60s across the region, except mid 60s in the Florida Big
Bend.

Saturday night through Sunday, a large storm system will be moving
eastward across the Plains, resulting in increasing cloudiness and
eventually rain chances Sunday afternoon. The models tend to be a
little slow developing areas of rain in isentropic events, and
thus have increased PoPs a little above guidance on Sunday
afternoon into the 40 to 50 percent range in our western areas.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The storm system at the tail end of the short term period will
begin to move through the region on Sunday night. With the surface
low well to the north, enough instability will likely be present
within the warm sector to support isolated thunderstorms. After
the isentropic ascent ends on Sunday evening, overall lift looks
minimal until the cold front gets closer to the region after
midnight. Rain chances have been increased into the likely
category for the frontal passage overnight.

Drier and cooler air will move in behind the storm system Monday
afternoon with high pressure settling over the area briefly on
Tuesday.

Up until the 30/00z guidance came in, it appeared that the models
were converging on a similar solution. However, while the overall
pattern remains similar between the GFS and Euro, the 30/00z Euro
slowed down quite a bit and is now 18-24 hours slower with the
progression of the next system. As a result, the forecast for
Wednesday through Friday remains more uncertain than normal.

The pattern suggests that the large upper low over Baja California
will eject eastward across Northern Mexico and lead to development
of a surface low pressure area along a stalled frontal zone in the
Gulf of Mexico. The 30/00z GFS stays fairly progressive, even
pulling the upper low well to the north ahead of a deepening
northern stream shortwave. So the heaviest period of rain is
focused on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The 30/00z Euro is much
slower with the evolution of the system, owing to less
amplification of the northern stream by mid week. Thus, while rain
chances increase in the Euro solution Wednesday night, the period
of heaviest rainfall wouldn`t occur until Thursday and then linger
into Friday.

There`s enough overlap in the solutions to increase PoPs on
Wednesday but the differences also suggest that rain chances need
to be maintained in the forecast through at least Thursday
afternoon until the timing differences between the models can be
resolved.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings are possible
early this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area,
but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with gusty NW winds from
mid-morning until around sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will increase to advisory level over the western marine area
immediately behind the cold front and then decrease to cautionary
levels through Saturday morning when high pressure will build near
the waters. Onshore flow will increase on Sunday ahead of the next
storm system with possible advisory level conditions Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Monday, shifting winds to offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While
timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the
general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that
will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week
or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  35  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Panama City   59  39  60  49  66 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dothan        57  34  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        58  32  60  42  64 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      60  34  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    66  35  67  44  70 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  63  40  60  49  66 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300843
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning,
ushering in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will decrease
rapidly during the morning hours with mostly sunny conditions
expected by afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will build across the Southern Appalachians this
evening and remain north of the region before sunrise on Saturday.
Enough wind will probably keep freezing temperatures confined to
the northern zones, closer to the center of the high pressure
area.

High pressure moves quickly east of the region on Saturday with
southerly flow starting the moistening trend late in the
afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly, generally in the
lower 60s across the region, except mid 60s in the Florida Big
Bend.

Saturday night through Sunday, a large storm system will be moving
eastward across the Plains, resulting in increasing cloudiness and
eventually rain chances Sunday afternoon. The models tend to be a
little slow developing areas of rain in isentropic events, and
thus have increased PoPs a little above guidance on Sunday
afternoon into the 40 to 50 percent range in our western areas.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The storm system at the tail end of the short term period will
begin to move through the region on Sunday night. With the surface
low well to the north, enough instability will likely be present
within the warm sector to support isolated thunderstorms. After
the isentropic ascent ends on Sunday evening, overall lift looks
minimal until the cold front gets closer to the region after
midnight. Rain chances have been increased into the likely
category for the frontal passage overnight.

Drier and cooler air will move in behind the storm system Monday
afternoon with high pressure settling over the area briefly on
Tuesday.

Up until the 30/00z guidance came in, it appeared that the models
were converging on a similar solution. However, while the overall
pattern remains similar between the GFS and Euro, the 30/00z Euro
slowed down quite a bit and is now 18-24 hours slower with the
progression of the next system. As a result, the forecast for
Wednesday through Friday remains more uncertain than normal.

The pattern suggests that the large upper low over Baja California
will eject eastward across Northern Mexico and lead to development
of a surface low pressure area along a stalled frontal zone in the
Gulf of Mexico. The 30/00z GFS stays fairly progressive, even
pulling the upper low well to the north ahead of a deepening
northern stream shortwave. So the heaviest period of rain is
focused on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The 30/00z Euro is much
slower with the evolution of the system, owing to less
amplification of the northern stream by mid week. Thus, while rain
chances increase in the Euro solution Wednesday night, the period
of heaviest rainfall wouldn`t occur until Thursday and then linger
into Friday.

There`s enough overlap in the solutions to increase PoPs on
Wednesday but the differences also suggest that rain chances need
to be maintained in the forecast through at least Thursday
afternoon until the timing differences between the models can be
resolved.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings are possible
early this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area,
but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with gusty NW winds from
mid-morning until around sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will increase to advisory level over the western marine area
immediately behind the cold front and then decrease to cautionary
levels through Saturday morning when high pressure will build near
the waters. Onshore flow will increase on Sunday ahead of the next
storm system with possible advisory level conditions Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Monday, shifting winds to offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While
timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the
general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that
will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week
or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  35  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Panama City   59  39  60  49  66 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dothan        57  34  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        58  32  60  42  64 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      60  34  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    66  35  67  44  70 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  63  40  60  49  66 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 292143
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A shortwave trough can be seen clearly via WV imagery, embedded
within a wavy longwave trough across the eastern half of the
country. The shortwave is currently located over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and is forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast
by morning. The deep synoptic forcing from this shortwave will
remain north of the Tri-State region. However, a surface cold front
that is currently draped southwest to northeast from the Southern
Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley will be pushed through
the region as the aforementioned wave moves east. The front is
currently characterized by a sharp dewpoint gradient, with a broad
temperature gradient spread over 100-200 miles. There is fair
consensus that the cold air will catch up to the front at some point
during its passage across the local area. This will create a zone of
stronger forcing in the 1000-850mb layer and result in a more
organized line of light showers. So, while there is little to no
precip this far south along the front at this hour, expect it to
fill in a bit more late tonight into tomorrow morning. QPF amounts
should remain low, likely below a tenth of an inch.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions will fall to MVFR levels under ceilings from west
to east through the night ahead of an approaching front. Behind
the front skies will return to VFR levels. All terminals should
return to VFR by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
tomorrow in the western half of the waters. An active weather
pattern will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  20  10   0   0  10
Dothan        40  58  32  59  43 /  20  10   0   0  10
Albany        42  60  30  59  41 /  20  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    47  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  64  39  61  49 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 292143
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A shortwave trough can be seen clearly via WV imagery, embedded
within a wavy longwave trough across the eastern half of the
country. The shortwave is currently located over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and is forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast
by morning. The deep synoptic forcing from this shortwave will
remain north of the Tri-State region. However, a surface cold front
that is currently draped southwest to northeast from the Southern
Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley will be pushed through
the region as the aforementioned wave moves east. The front is
currently characterized by a sharp dewpoint gradient, with a broad
temperature gradient spread over 100-200 miles. There is fair
consensus that the cold air will catch up to the front at some point
during its passage across the local area. This will create a zone of
stronger forcing in the 1000-850mb layer and result in a more
organized line of light showers. So, while there is little to no
precip this far south along the front at this hour, expect it to
fill in a bit more late tonight into tomorrow morning. QPF amounts
should remain low, likely below a tenth of an inch.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions will fall to MVFR levels under ceilings from west
to east through the night ahead of an approaching front. Behind
the front skies will return to VFR levels. All terminals should
return to VFR by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
tomorrow in the western half of the waters. An active weather
pattern will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  20  10   0   0  10
Dothan        40  58  32  59  43 /  20  10   0   0  10
Albany        42  60  30  59  41 /  20  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    47  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  64  39  61  49 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature locally today
with dry conditions. The center of the high will slide east of the
area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches.
Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature locally today
with dry conditions. The center of the high will slide east of the
area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches.
Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the
Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool,
dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder
interior locations.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and
unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over
night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.


.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON









000
FXUS62 KTAE 290029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the
Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool,
dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder
interior locations.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and
unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over
night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.


.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the
Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool,
dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder
interior locations.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and
unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over
night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.


.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON









000
FXUS62 KTAE 290029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the
Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool,
dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder
interior locations.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and
unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over
night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.


.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 282034
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Clear skies, calm winds, and dry conditions will set-up a favorable
radiational cooling event tonight. Expect lows to once again fall to
around or just below the freezing mark tonight. Slightly more
widespread frost as compared to this morning should be expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions under light winds and clear
skies will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 282034
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Clear skies, calm winds, and dry conditions will set-up a favorable
radiational cooling event tonight. Expect lows to once again fall to
around or just below the freezing mark tonight. Slightly more
widespread frost as compared to this morning should be expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions under light winds and clear
skies will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON







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