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000
FXUS62 KTAE 251347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH A ROUND OF
STORMS THIS MORNING, A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AND MLCAPE
TODAY INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POTENTIAL
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF OUR INLAND COUNTIES TODAY EXCEPT DIXIE COUNTY. COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL AROUND 00 UTC. AFTER
THAT TIME, LOW CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND COULD AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE TERMINALS WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES DHN AND ABY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MAY PERSIST AROUND THE DHN OR ABY
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [436 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP WITH
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...THUS THE FORECAST
POP IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVING OUR
FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE
OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE STORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF
CUTS THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS MSLP PATTERN LOOKS A BIT STRANGE WITH A LARGE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE
FEEDBACK AND COULD BE RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY. OVERALL...SOMETHING LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...PROVIDED THAT THE LARGE MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS
THINKS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.


.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AREAWIDE.


.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASINS WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND OTHER MODELS PLACING IT FARTHER
NORTH WITH GREATER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  72  89  70  86 /  30  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   81  73  81  71  78 /  40  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        84  70  88  65  85 /  70  20  10  10  20
ALBANY        82  70  91  64  83 /  70  30  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  71  91  68  85 /  40  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  73  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  81  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 251347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH A ROUND OF
STORMS THIS MORNING, A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AND MLCAPE
TODAY INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POTENTIAL
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF OUR INLAND COUNTIES TODAY EXCEPT DIXIE COUNTY. COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL AROUND 00 UTC. AFTER
THAT TIME, LOW CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND COULD AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE TERMINALS WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES DHN AND ABY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MAY PERSIST AROUND THE DHN OR ABY
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [436 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP WITH
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...THUS THE FORECAST
POP IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVING OUR
FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE
OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE STORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF
CUTS THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS MSLP PATTERN LOOKS A BIT STRANGE WITH A LARGE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE
FEEDBACK AND COULD BE RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY. OVERALL...SOMETHING LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...PROVIDED THAT THE LARGE MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS
THINKS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.


.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AREAWIDE.


.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASINS WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND OTHER MODELS PLACING IT FARTHER
NORTH WITH GREATER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  72  89  70  86 /  30  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   81  73  81  71  78 /  40  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        84  70  88  65  85 /  70  20  10  10  20
ALBANY        82  70  91  64  83 /  70  30  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  71  91  68  85 /  40  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  73  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  81  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250836
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SHORT VERSION IS THAT
RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY (PARTICULARLY IN THOSE SAME AREAS).

AS OF 08 UTC, A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR BIRMINGHAM, TO JACKSON MS, TO NEARLY NATCHEZ MS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STORMS WERE ADVANCING EAST,
AND COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND 12 UTC (7 AM CDT). THESE STORMS WERE SITUATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY, AND LIKELY
JUST NORTH OF A LOW-MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP WAS
SAMPLED BY THE 00 UTC LIX AND LCH SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +10C AND +12C, AND THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SIMILAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NOSING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
MORNING CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT EVEN DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. WHAT UNFOLDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAM) INDICATE
AFTERNOON INITIATION ALONG A TRAILING WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THAT OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE
AREA SWEPT OUT BY STORMS THIS MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
PLUS OR MINUS A FEW COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS OCCUR TODAY, BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THAT
IS WHERE STORM CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST AND THERE MAY BE A
LINGERING BOUNDARY. BY MID-MORNING, A BROAD-BASED AVERAGE OF
MODELS SHOWS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR,
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000- 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS OR BOWED LINE SEGMENTS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF I-10. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT BUT
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THE CAMS
THAT PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS INDICATE VERY STRONG
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AID IN QUICK DESTABILIZATION IN THE EVENT OF
MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE PRIMARY THING THAT WOULD
DECREASE OUR SEVERE RISK IS IF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS
OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THAT SEEMS THE LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO RIGHT NOW. FINALLY, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN STORM MOTION VECTORS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE EXPECTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTATION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP WITH
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...THUS THE FORECAST
POP IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVING OUR
FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE
OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE STORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF
CUTS THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS MSLP PATTERN LOOKS A BIT STRANGE WITH A LARGE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE
FEEDBACK AND COULD BE RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY. OVERALL...SOMETHING LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...PROVIDED THAT THE LARGE MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS
THINKS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] SOME LOW CIGS, PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR RANGE,
MAY AFFECT ECP AND DHN EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00 UTC. AFTER THAT TIME, LOW CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND COULD
AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES DHN AND ABY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
PERSIST AROUND THE DHN OR ABY TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AREAWIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASINS WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND OTHER MODELS PLACING IT FARTHER
NORTH WITH GREATER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  72  89  70  86 /  30  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   81  73  81  71  78 /  30  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        84  70  88  65  85 /  60  20  10  10  20
ALBANY        82  70  91  64  83 /  60  30  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  71  91  68  85 /  30  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  73  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  81  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 250836
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SHORT VERSION IS THAT
RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY (PARTICULARLY IN THOSE SAME AREAS).

AS OF 08 UTC, A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR BIRMINGHAM, TO JACKSON MS, TO NEARLY NATCHEZ MS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STORMS WERE ADVANCING EAST,
AND COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AROUND 12 UTC (7 AM CDT). THESE STORMS WERE SITUATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY, AND LIKELY
JUST NORTH OF A LOW-MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP WAS
SAMPLED BY THE 00 UTC LIX AND LCH SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +10C AND +12C, AND THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SIMILAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NOSING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
MORNING CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT EVEN DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. WHAT UNFOLDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS MORNING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAM) INDICATE
AFTERNOON INITIATION ALONG A TRAILING WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THAT OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON THE
AREA SWEPT OUT BY STORMS THIS MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
PLUS OR MINUS A FEW COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS OCCUR TODAY, BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THAT
IS WHERE STORM CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST AND THERE MAY BE A
LINGERING BOUNDARY. BY MID-MORNING, A BROAD-BASED AVERAGE OF
MODELS SHOWS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR,
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000- 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KNOTS, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS OR BOWED LINE SEGMENTS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF I-10. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT BUT
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THE CAMS
THAT PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS INDICATE VERY STRONG
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AID IN QUICK DESTABILIZATION IN THE EVENT OF
MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE PRIMARY THING THAT WOULD
DECREASE OUR SEVERE RISK IS IF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS
OFF TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THAT SEEMS THE LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO RIGHT NOW. FINALLY, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN STORM MOTION VECTORS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE EXPECTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTATION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP WITH
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...THUS THE FORECAST
POP IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVING OUR
FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE
OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE STORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF
CUTS THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS MSLP PATTERN LOOKS A BIT STRANGE WITH A LARGE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE
FEEDBACK AND COULD BE RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY. OVERALL...SOMETHING LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...PROVIDED THAT THE LARGE MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS
THINKS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] SOME LOW CIGS, PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR RANGE,
MAY AFFECT ECP AND DHN EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00 UTC. AFTER THAT TIME, LOW CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND COULD
AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHICH INCLUDES DHN AND ABY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
PERSIST AROUND THE DHN OR ABY TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AREAWIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASINS WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND OTHER MODELS PLACING IT FARTHER
NORTH WITH GREATER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  72  89  70  86 /  30  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   81  73  81  71  78 /  30  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        84  70  88  65  85 /  60  20  10  10  20
ALBANY        82  70  91  64  83 /  60  30  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  71  91  68  85 /  30  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  73  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  81  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
852 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S WEATHER, THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY MADE
GOOD PROGRESS INLAND, MAKING IT TO THE FLORIDA BORDER BEFORE
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE
AS MOIST AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT, AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR IS LOCATED OFF
TO THE WEST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOUISIANA DELTA AND SOUTHERN MISS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE GULF WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
COMING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY IS GREATEST AT DHN/ABY
PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [354 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  30  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
852 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AS WITH LAST NIGHT`S WEATHER, THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS TODAY MADE
GOOD PROGRESS INLAND, MAKING IT TO THE FLORIDA BORDER BEFORE
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE
AS MOIST AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT, AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR IS LOCATED OFF
TO THE WEST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOUISIANA DELTA AND SOUTHERN MISS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE GULF WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
COMING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY IS GREATEST AT DHN/ABY
PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [354 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  30  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 241954
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

BEAUTIFUL, BUT WARM, WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPS US CLEAR ONE LAST EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF QUICKLY INCREASES LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A DECAYING
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND/JUST-BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS TROUGH FLATTENS OUT JUST WEST OF
OUR CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND AROUND
70 SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH CROSS CITY AND DOTHAN. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND CLEARER SKIES SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS NORTHEAST OF THIS
LINE TO REACH THE MID 60S. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM
IN THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 9/10Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER QUICKLY AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR VLD SHOULD SEE MVFR BEFORE 12Z. WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM ALL TERMINALS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (15G25KT)
AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  20  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /   0  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 241954
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

BEAUTIFUL, BUT WARM, WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPS US CLEAR ONE LAST EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF QUICKLY INCREASES LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A DECAYING
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND/JUST-BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS TROUGH FLATTENS OUT JUST WEST OF
OUR CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND AROUND
70 SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH CROSS CITY AND DOTHAN. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND CLEARER SKIES SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS NORTHEAST OF THIS
LINE TO REACH THE MID 60S. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM
IN THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 9/10Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER QUICKLY AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR VLD SHOULD SEE MVFR BEFORE 12Z. WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM ALL TERMINALS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (15G25KT)
AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  20  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /   0  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241954
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

BEAUTIFUL, BUT WARM, WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPS US CLEAR ONE LAST EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF QUICKLY INCREASES LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A DECAYING
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND/JUST-BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS TROUGH FLATTENS OUT JUST WEST OF
OUR CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND AROUND
70 SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH CROSS CITY AND DOTHAN. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND CLEARER SKIES SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS NORTHEAST OF THIS
LINE TO REACH THE MID 60S. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM
IN THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 9/10Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER QUICKLY AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR VLD SHOULD SEE MVFR BEFORE 12Z. WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM ALL TERMINALS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (15G25KT)
AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  20  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /   0  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 241954
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

BEAUTIFUL, BUT WARM, WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPS US CLEAR ONE LAST EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF QUICKLY INCREASES LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A 500MB RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A DECAYING
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND/JUST-BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS TROUGH FLATTENS OUT JUST WEST OF
OUR CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND AROUND
70 SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH CROSS CITY AND DOTHAN. LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND CLEARER SKIES SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS NORTHEAST OF THIS
LINE TO REACH THE MID 60S. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM
IN THIS UPDATE.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH) WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTH GA (CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT). OUR POP WILL RANGE FROM 50 PERCENT NORTH OF ALBANY AND
DOTHAN, TO JUST 20 PERCENT IN NORTH FL. WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF AN 850 JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS
WELL. THE GREATEST THREAT IS IN AL AND GA, THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE CAPE LESSENS.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL MOTION ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES. THE HIGHEST POP IS ONLY 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH
FL, WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70 SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
GIVING OUR FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH (AND CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION) THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN, PERHAPS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 9/10Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER QUICKLY AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR VLD SHOULD SEE MVFR BEFORE 12Z. WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM ALL TERMINALS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (15G25KT)
AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM AS RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP ALL CONCERNS LOW.
THE ONLY CONCERN COULD BE HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAVE CAUSED PORTIONS OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IS UNLIKELY TO BE CONCENTRATED OR HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LOCAL RIVER STAGES. HOWEVER, A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT THE LOWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR RIVER BASINS, WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE RIVER STAGES. OBVIOUSLY IF THE HIGHEST QPF SHIFTS
NORTHWARD, THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  87  73  89  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
PANAMA CITY   71  80  74  81  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
DOTHAN        65  84  70  89  64 /  20  40  10  10  10
ALBANY        64  83  69  88  63 /  20  40  20  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  85  70  89  66 /  10  30  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    66  85  72  85  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  72  81  75  84  72 /   0  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241406
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AS OF 13Z THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS FILTERING A DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN SW GEORGIA TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [413 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.


.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.


.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 241406
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AS OF 13Z THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS FILTERING A DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN SW GEORGIA TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [413 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.


.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.


.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241406
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AS OF 13Z THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS FILTERING A DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN SW GEORGIA TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [413 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.


.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.


.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241406
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AS OF 13Z THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS FILTERING A DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN SW GEORGIA TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [413 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.


.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.


.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240813
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 240813
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INLAND FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
GULF SSTS...CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE 45-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH
JUST ENOUGH LIFT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP
WITH WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND IN FACT SO FAR
THIS MONTH EVERY DAY HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TALLAHASSEE.
TALLAHASSEE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS WARMEST APRIL ON
RECORD...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...
THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CARRIES A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW...WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE WILL SEE
FROM THIS LOCALLY. IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT
SOME MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 1000 MB...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN
DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT TRACK. A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT
THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TLH/ECP/VLD THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE
OCHLOCKONEE AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY NEW
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING AS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  65  86  70  90 /  10  10  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   80  70  81  73  83 /  10  10  50  20  40
DOTHAN        82  64  84  70  88 /  10  10  70  20  30
ALBANY        80  62  83  68  90 /  10  10  70  30  20
VALDOSTA      82  63  87  70  90 /  10  10  60  30  40
CROSS CITY    85  64  85  71  85 /  10  10  30  20  50
APALACHICOLA  81  71  81  74  84 /  10  10  40  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240044
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
844 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MAKING IT
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TO THE NORTH, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE MORE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA, BUT
DRIER LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTH, SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF OUR ALABAMA
OR GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S IN FLORIDA AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT TLH/ECP/VLD IN THE
MORNING, SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   67  78  71  80  73 /  10  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        60  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        58  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      61  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    65  86  66  84  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  69  80  72  81  75 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 240044
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
844 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MAKING IT
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TO THE NORTH, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE MORE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA, BUT
DRIER LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTH, SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF OUR ALABAMA
OR GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S IN FLORIDA AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT TLH/ECP/VLD IN THE
MORNING, SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   67  78  71  80  73 /  10  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        60  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        58  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      61  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    65  86  66  84  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  69  80  72  81  75 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240044
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
844 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MAKING IT
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TO THE NORTH, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE MORE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA, BUT
DRIER LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTH, SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF OUR ALABAMA
OR GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S IN FLORIDA AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT TLH/ECP/VLD IN THE
MORNING, SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   67  78  71  80  73 /  10  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        60  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        58  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      61  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    65  86  66  84  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  69  80  72  81  75 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240044
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
844 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MAKING IT
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BORDER. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TO THE NORTH, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 50S. WITH THE MORE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH FLORIDA, BUT
DRIER LOW LEVELS TO THE NORTH, SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF OUR ALABAMA
OR GEORGIA COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S IN FLORIDA AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT TLH/ECP/VLD IN THE
MORNING, SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   67  78  71  80  73 /  10  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        60  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        58  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      61  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    65  86  66  84  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  69  80  72  81  75 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 231945
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WEAK E-W ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STRETCHED ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS (DEWPOINT OF 70F IN APALACHICOLA) FROM A VERY DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS (DEWPOINT OF 52F IN TALLAHASSEE). BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MAKES
ITS PUSH INLAND. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. BY
MID-EVENING, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD END ANY SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HELP TO
PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-10.


.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   65  78  71  80  73 /  20  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        58  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        56  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      59  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    63  86  66  84  71 /  20  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  67  80  72  81  75 /  20  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 231945
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WEAK E-W ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STRETCHED ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS SEPARATING A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS (DEWPOINT OF 70F IN APALACHICOLA) FROM A VERY DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS (DEWPOINT OF 52F IN TALLAHASSEE). BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MAKES
ITS PUSH INLAND. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. BY
MID-EVENING, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD END ANY SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HELP TO
PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-10.


.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS THAT FORM COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TIMING DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW`S
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 60 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
IN LINE AND HAVE A STRONG LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WINDS WILL APPROACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND WILL STAY ELEVATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS REACHED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CREST AT 15.1 FEET FRIDAY EVENING. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT
CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOODS STAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN HAS ALSO
CRESTED AND WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHER AREA RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE ARE ALSO FALLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  85  68  85  71 /  10  10  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   65  78  71  80  73 /  20  10  20  40  20
DOTHAN        58  81  65  83  68 /  10  10  30  60  20
ALBANY        56  80  63  82  67 /  10  10  30  50  20
VALDOSTA      59  82  64  85  69 /  10  10  30  50  20
CROSS CITY    63  86  66  84  71 /  20  10  10  30  20
APALACHICOLA  67  80  72  81  75 /  20  10  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 231405
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING IS HELPING SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN CREEPING CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, NO
EXPECTED MUCH ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL COUNTIES, AS
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [600 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT VLD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT ECP, TLH AND VLD. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  62  87  66  85 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   81  65  79  69  81 /  20  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        86  58  82  64  83 /  20  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        85  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      87  59  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    86  62  87  66  85 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  83  67  79  70  81 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 231405
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING IS HELPING SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN CREEPING CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, NO
EXPECTED MUCH ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL COUNTIES, AS
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [600 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT VLD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT ECP, TLH AND VLD. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  62  87  66  85 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   81  65  79  69  81 /  20  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        86  58  82  64  83 /  20  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        85  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      87  59  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    86  62  87  66  85 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  83  67  79  70  81 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 231000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT VLD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT ECP, TLH AND VLD. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [409 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69  79 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70  80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 231000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT VLD AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AT ECP, TLH AND VLD. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [409 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69  79 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70  80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 230809 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FROM 09-13Z. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69  79 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70  80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 230809 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FROM 09-13Z. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69  79 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66  83 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70  80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 230804
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
404 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FROM 09-13Z. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66 -80 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69 -80 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64 -80 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62 -80 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64 -80 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66 -80 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70 -80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 230804
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
404 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL AND GA.
THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND MAY JUST REACH OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES BY SUNSET. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ON OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. POPS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RUNNING 55-60 KT. THE HIGHER CAPE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
AREA AND IMMEDIATE COAST. THOSE ARE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WON`T BE COLDER BUT IT WILL
BE DRIER. DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PW`S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.85" BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS AND CAPE BETWEEN 1500 J/KG AND 2000 J/KG. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., INCLUDING OUR CWA, HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
AS THE MID TO UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER OUR FLORIDA ZONES SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT AND MORE VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EURO SOLUTION SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING NOT ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ALSO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THIS CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FROM 09-13Z. CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS TODAY. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ECP AND TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO ELEVATE POSSIBLY REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A REINFORCING, ALBEIT
BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY. RH MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. HOWEVER, SOILS REMAIN MOIST AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY, OVER 75
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. VERY HIGH DISPERSION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  62  87  66 -80 /  20  20  10  10  40
PANAMA CITY   79  65  79  69 -80 /  30  20  10  10  50
DOTHAN        83  58  82  64 -80 /  10  20  10  30  60
ALBANY        83  56  81  62 -80 /  10  10  10  40  60
VALDOSTA      85  59  86  64 -80 /  10  10  10  30  50
CROSS CITY    85  62  87  66 -80 /  20  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  82  67  79  70 -80 /  30  20  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 230016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AFTER 09Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.


.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 230016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AFTER 09Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.


.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 230016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AFTER 09Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.


.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 230016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AFTER 09Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.


.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 221851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.


.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 221851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S.


.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS. FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO COASTAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY`S SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AS A POTENT UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE 4-
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AT TLH, ECP AND VLD AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE WILL REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS EVENING. AT CARYVILLE THE RIVER WILL CREST 13.7 FEET TOMORROW.
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN IS AT 17.7 FEET AND WILL CREST
SOON BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   59  86  65  86  69 /  20  30  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   66  80  68  78  72 /  20  30  20  30  30
DOTHAN        58  82  60  81  67 /  20  30  10  30  40
ALBANY        58  83  59  81  65 /  10  30  10  30  50
VALDOSTA      59  86  60  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  40
CROSS CITY    59  85  65  86  68 /  20  30  20  20  30
APALACHICOLA  65  81  71  80  74 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KTAE 221435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [437 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AS THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR
CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
NORTH FLORIDA ZONES EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THEN, THE GFS
AND EURO SHOW A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE EURO TRACKS THIS FEATURE EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, BOTH SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
AND THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT`S
STILL A LONG WAY OFF BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE REGION AND WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL THIS
CYCLE. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT ECP AND TLH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT IN SOME
AREAS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCHTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT GENEVA SHOULD CREST LATER THIS EVENING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM GENEVA WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PORTION OF THE RIVER BASIN. AS THE CREST WAVE
MOVES DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT BRUCE LATER THIS
WEEK.

RELEASES FROM WOODRUFF ARE PEAKING AROUND 58KCFS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL EVENTUALLY CREST NEAR 18.7 FEET
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEAR DAWSON BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE RIVER WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  58  87  62  88 /   0  20  30  10  20
PANAMA CITY   79  65  82  66  81 /   0  30  40  20  30
DOTHAN        83  57  83  58  81 /   0  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        83  57  83  56  82 /   0  20  20  10  30
VALDOSTA      85  58  88  59  88 /   0  20  20  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  58  86  63  86 /   0  20  30  20  10
APALACHICOLA  81  64  82  68  81 /   0  30  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 221435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [437 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AS THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR
CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
NORTH FLORIDA ZONES EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THEN, THE GFS
AND EURO SHOW A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE EURO TRACKS THIS FEATURE EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, BOTH SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
AND THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT`S
STILL A LONG WAY OFF BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE REGION AND WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL THIS
CYCLE. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT ECP AND TLH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT IN SOME
AREAS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCHTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT GENEVA SHOULD CREST LATER THIS EVENING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM GENEVA WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PORTION OF THE RIVER BASIN. AS THE CREST WAVE
MOVES DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT BRUCE LATER THIS
WEEK.

RELEASES FROM WOODRUFF ARE PEAKING AROUND 58KCFS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL EVENTUALLY CREST NEAR 18.7 FEET
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEAR DAWSON BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE RIVER WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  58  87  62  88 /   0  20  30  10  20
PANAMA CITY   79  65  82  66  81 /   0  30  40  20  30
DOTHAN        83  57  83  58  81 /   0  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        83  57  83  56  82 /   0  20  20  10  30
VALDOSTA      85  58  88  59  88 /   0  20  20  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  58  86  63  86 /   0  20  30  20  10
APALACHICOLA  81  64  82  68  81 /   0  30  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 221435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [437 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AS THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR
CWA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
NORTH FLORIDA ZONES EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THEN, THE GFS
AND EURO SHOW A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE EURO TRACKS THIS FEATURE EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, BOTH SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
AND THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT`S
STILL A LONG WAY OFF BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE REGION AND WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WILL PREVAIL THIS
CYCLE. AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT ECP AND TLH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT IN SOME
AREAS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE CHOCHTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT GENEVA SHOULD CREST LATER THIS EVENING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
DOWNSTREAM FROM GENEVA WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PORTION OF THE RIVER BASIN. AS THE CREST WAVE
MOVES DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT BRUCE LATER THIS
WEEK.

RELEASES FROM WOODRUFF ARE PEAKING AROUND 58KCFS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL EVENTUALLY CREST NEAR 18.7 FEET
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEAR DAWSON BUT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE RIVER WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, RUNOFF FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGES, PARTICULARLY IN
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HOWEVER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  58  87  62  88 /   0  20  30  10  20
PANAMA CITY   79  65  82  66  81 /   0  30  40  20  30
DOTHAN        83  57  83  58  81 /   0  20  30  10  30
ALBANY        83  57  83  56  82 /   0  20  20  10  30
VALDOSTA      85  58  88  59  88 /   0  20  20  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  58  86  63  86 /   0  20  30  20  10
APALACHICOLA  81  64  82  68  81 /   0  30  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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