Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KTAE 271407
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ARE USHERING IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...CAUSING
PWAT VALUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ZONES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY...INDICATING THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THERE IS NO COLD
POOL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LIKE THERE WAS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS AT SOME
TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [630 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   84  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        88  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  85  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 271407
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ARE USHERING IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...CAUSING
PWAT VALUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ZONES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY...INDICATING THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THERE IS NO COLD
POOL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LIKE THERE WAS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS AT SOME
TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [630 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   84  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        88  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  85  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...

THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO ALLOW ANY SORT
OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THOUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...

THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO ALLOW ANY SORT
OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THOUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261936
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DOMINANT AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE AREA
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE APALACHICOLA CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF, COMBINED WITH THE CONVEX
NATURE OF THE COASTLINE, IS ENHANCING THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE STORMS GREW TALLER THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~6.6 C/KM). THIS HAS
YIELDED QUITE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR GUSTY WINDS SO
FAR TODAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD POOL FORMED
LAST NIGHT FROM A VERY IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER TEXAS. THIS LINE HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARDS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND NOW
LIES ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH/NEAR PANAMA CITY SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.

MOST STORMS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE MESOSCALE FEATURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME STORMS THIS
EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AROUND 0.50-1.0 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES
OF RAIN WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
AND TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. AS THE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY
UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDHN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  88  69  89  66 /  20  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   72  85  71  84  70 /  30  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  40  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        70  87  67  89  65 /  30  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      68  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    69  90  66  90  64 /  50  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 261936
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DOMINANT AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE AREA
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE APALACHICOLA CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF, COMBINED WITH THE CONVEX
NATURE OF THE COASTLINE, IS ENHANCING THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE STORMS GREW TALLER THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~6.6 C/KM). THIS HAS
YIELDED QUITE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR GUSTY WINDS SO
FAR TODAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD POOL FORMED
LAST NIGHT FROM A VERY IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER TEXAS. THIS LINE HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARDS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND NOW
LIES ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH/NEAR PANAMA CITY SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.

MOST STORMS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE MESOSCALE FEATURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME STORMS THIS
EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AROUND 0.50-1.0 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES
OF RAIN WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
AND TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. AS THE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY
UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDHN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  88  69  89  66 /  20  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   72  85  71  84  70 /  30  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  40  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        70  87  67  89  65 /  30  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      68  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    69  90  66  90  64 /  50  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955 CCA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955 CCA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251452
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SMALL SHOWERS SPRINGING UP ALONG THE WESTERN BIG BEND. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] REMAINING LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK
UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KDHN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL LOW CIGS RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST RECENTLY
WILL BE COMPRESSED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. FROM WEST TO
EAST, THIS WILL GRADUALLY PLACE THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL REMAIN POISED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH CONTINUED
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH ONE OF OUR WETTEST SEABREEZE REGIMES TO FORCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE SEABREEZE FRONTS ON
TUESDAY, WITH AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, WITH MORE SEASONABLE RAIN
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; THOUGH WITH SOME STEEPER THAN
USUAL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, AN ISOLATED STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, NEAR NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

WEDNESDAY`S UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES. THEREAFTER, A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
IN VARYING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REGIMES. HIGH`S WILL ALSO PEAK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.


.MARINE...

WITH A PROLONGED EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME, EXPECT NOCTURNAL
SURGES EACH NIGHT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE SURGES
COULD REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY AND EVEN HIGHER ON
TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  89  73  89 /  20  30  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   84  75  84  73  84 /  50  30  50  30  50
DOTHAN        88  70  87  68  87 /  70  20  70  30  70
ALBANY        89  70  89  69  87 /  50  40  60  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  70  89  69  88 /  60  30  50  40  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  91  68  91 /  30  40  50  40  20
APALACHICOLA  86  76  86  75  86 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...CAMP





000
FXUS62 KTAE 251452
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SMALL SHOWERS SPRINGING UP ALONG THE WESTERN BIG BEND. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY] REMAINING LOW CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK
UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KDHN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL LOW CIGS RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST RECENTLY
WILL BE COMPRESSED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. FROM WEST TO
EAST, THIS WILL GRADUALLY PLACE THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL REMAIN POISED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH CONTINUED
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH ONE OF OUR WETTEST SEABREEZE REGIMES TO FORCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE SEABREEZE FRONTS ON
TUESDAY, WITH AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, WITH MORE SEASONABLE RAIN
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; THOUGH WITH SOME STEEPER THAN
USUAL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, AN ISOLATED STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, NEAR NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

WEDNESDAY`S UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES. THEREAFTER, A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
IN VARYING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REGIMES. HIGH`S WILL ALSO PEAK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.


.MARINE...

WITH A PROLONGED EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME, EXPECT NOCTURNAL
SURGES EACH NIGHT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE SURGES
COULD REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY AND EVEN HIGHER ON
TUESDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  89  73  89 /  20  30  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   84  75  84  73  84 /  50  30  50  30  50
DOTHAN        88  70  87  68  87 /  70  20  70  30  70
ALBANY        89  70  89  69  87 /  50  40  60  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  70  89  69  88 /  60  30  50  40  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  91  68  91 /  30  40  50  40  20
APALACHICOLA  86  76  86  75  86 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250737
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ONE
PRIMARY VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NWWD
ACROSS OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS. TO THE WEST, A QLCS IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. MOST HI RES MODELS DISSIPATE THIS
FEATURE BEFORE IT REACHES US. HOWEVER, REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY.
THESE AREAS WILL ALSO GET SOME CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT LOBE. POPS WILL BE IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY, BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EVEN CATEGORICAL IN COFFEE AND GENEVA
COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 WITH THE SEA BREEZE HOLDING COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST RECENTLY
WILL BE COMPRESSED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. FROM WEST TO
EAST, THIS WILL GRADUALLY PLACE THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL REMAIN POISED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH CONTINUED
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH ONE OF OUR WETTEST SEABREEZE REGIMES TO FORCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE SEABREEZE FRONTS ON
TUESDAY, WITH AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, WITH MORE SEASONABLE RAIN
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; THOUGH WITH SOME STEEPER THAN
USUAL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, AN ISOLATED STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, NEAR NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

WEDNESDAY`S UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES. THEREAFTER, A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
IN VARYING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REGIMES. HIGH`S WILL ALSO PEAK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY]

THIS SET OF TAFS TRENDS DECIDEDLY MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE LAST
SET. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE IT AS PREVAILING AT DHN AND AS A TEMPORARY
CONDITION AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH A PROLONGED EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME, EXPECT NOCTURNAL
SURGES EACH NIGHT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE SURGES
COULD REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY AND EVEN HIGHER ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  89  73  89 /  30  30  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   84  75  84  73  84 /  50  30  50  30  50
DOTHAN        88  70  87  68  87 /  60  20  70  30  70
ALBANY        89  70  89  69  87 /  40  40  60  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  70  89  69  88 /  50  30  50  40  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  91  68  91 /  40  40  50  40  20
APALACHICOLA  86  76  86  75  86 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY TUESDAY
 MORNING FOR FRANKLIN AND WALTON COUNTY BEACHES.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250737
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ONE
PRIMARY VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NWWD
ACROSS OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS. TO THE WEST, A QLCS IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. MOST HI RES MODELS DISSIPATE THIS
FEATURE BEFORE IT REACHES US. HOWEVER, REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES TODAY.
THESE AREAS WILL ALSO GET SOME CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT LOBE. POPS WILL BE IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY, BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EVEN CATEGORICAL IN COFFEE AND GENEVA
COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
90 WITH THE SEA BREEZE HOLDING COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST RECENTLY
WILL BE COMPRESSED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. FROM WEST TO
EAST, THIS WILL GRADUALLY PLACE THE REGION UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL REMAIN POISED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH CONTINUED
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH ONE OF OUR WETTEST SEABREEZE REGIMES TO FORCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE SEABREEZE FRONTS ON
TUESDAY, WITH AN EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, WITH MORE SEASONABLE RAIN
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; THOUGH WITH SOME STEEPER THAN
USUAL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, AN ISOLATED STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, NEAR NORMAL.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

WEDNESDAY`S UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES. THEREAFTER, A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
IN VARYING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REGIMES. HIGH`S WILL ALSO PEAK NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY]

THIS SET OF TAFS TRENDS DECIDEDLY MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE LAST
SET. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE IT AS PREVAILING AT DHN AND AS A TEMPORARY
CONDITION AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH A PROLONGED EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME, EXPECT NOCTURNAL
SURGES EACH NIGHT, GRADUALLY WEAKENING EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE SURGES
COULD REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY AND EVEN HIGHER ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  89  73  89 /  30  30  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   84  75  84  73  84 /  50  30  50  30  50
DOTHAN        88  70  87  68  87 /  60  20  70  30  70
ALBANY        89  70  89  69  87 /  40  40  60  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  70  89  69  88 /  50  30  50  40  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  91  68  91 /  40  40  50  40  20
APALACHICOLA  86  76  86  75  86 /  40  40  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY TUESDAY
 MORNING FOR FRANKLIN AND WALTON COUNTY BEACHES.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...CAMP





000
FXUS62 KTAE 250110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ONCE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA IN THE
COMING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A WEAK EASTERLY BREEZE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES...MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INLAND TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/SHALLOW GROUND FOG OR HAZE AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
70 F. A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING DID NOT INITIALIZE
VERY WELL...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION MAY FOCUS
OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLIER IN DAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST AND
IMPACT MORE EASTERN HUBS LATTER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A LIGHT EASTERLY MORNING BREEZE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MID TO LATE DAY MIXING DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 5
THOUSAND FEET MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE EARLY TUESDAY
CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY MORE ACTIVE AREAWIDE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAY LOWER OVERALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS TO
GENERALLY UNDER 4 THOUSAND FEET. ON MONDAY...DISPERSION WILL BE THE
HIGHEST MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAINLY DUE THESE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MIXING DEPTHS AND A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WILL NARROW AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
EDGES EASTWARD. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOSING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.


.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WEAKER SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.


.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  73  88  71 /  10  30  20  40  30
PANAMA CITY   74  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        71  89  70  87  69 /  20  50  30  60  40
ALBANY        70  89  71  87  68 /  10  40  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      71  91  72  89  69 /  10  30  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    71  92  72  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  76  86  74  86  74 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ONCE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES OUT OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA IN THE
COMING HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A WEAK EASTERLY BREEZE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES...MIDDLE 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INLAND TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CEILINGS/SHALLOW GROUND FOG OR HAZE AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR
70 F. A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING DID NOT INITIALIZE
VERY WELL...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION MAY FOCUS
OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLIER IN DAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST AND
IMPACT MORE EASTERN HUBS LATTER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A LIGHT EASTERLY MORNING BREEZE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MID TO LATE DAY MIXING DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 5
THOUSAND FEET MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE EARLY TUESDAY
CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY MORE ACTIVE AREAWIDE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAY LOWER OVERALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS TO
GENERALLY UNDER 4 THOUSAND FEET. ON MONDAY...DISPERSION WILL BE THE
HIGHEST MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAINLY DUE THESE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MIXING DEPTHS AND A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WILL NARROW AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
EDGES EASTWARD. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOSING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.


.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WEAKER SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.


.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  73  88  71 /  10  30  20  40  30
PANAMA CITY   74  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        71  89  70  87  69 /  20  50  30  60  40
ALBANY        70  89  71  87  68 /  10  40  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      71  91  72  89  69 /  10  30  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    71  92  72  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  76  86  74  86  74 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP





000
FXUS62 KTAE 241958
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE FRONT WHERE A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SOUTHEAST FLA BIG BEND SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO BECOME ACTIVE LATER
TODAY, THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE BIT DRIER OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD PERSIST TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ISN`T EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WILL NARROW AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
EDGES EASTWARD. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOSING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE TLH/VLD
TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY, CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WEAKER SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LIGHT EASTERLY MORNING BREEZE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MID TO LATE DAY MIXING DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF
FIVE THOUSAND FEET MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE DAY TUESDAY MAY LOWER AFTERNOON MIXING
DEPTHS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  90  73  88  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
PANAMA CITY   74  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        72  89  70  87  69 /  10  50  30  60  40
ALBANY        71  89  71  87  68 /  10  40  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      72  91  72  89  69 /  10  30  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    70  92  72  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  74  86  74 /  30  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241958
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE FRONT WHERE A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE SOUTHEAST FLA BIG BEND SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO BECOME ACTIVE LATER
TODAY, THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE BIT DRIER OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS FROM THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD PERSIST TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ISN`T EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WILL NARROW AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
EDGES EASTWARD. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOON, TAPERING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXERTING SOME
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WEAK
RIDGING WILL RETURN ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NOSING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE TLH/VLD
TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY, CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS BACK TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A WEAKER SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LIGHT EASTERLY MORNING BREEZE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MID TO LATE DAY MIXING DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF
FIVE THOUSAND FEET MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEADING TO MORE CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE DAY TUESDAY MAY LOWER AFTERNOON MIXING
DEPTHS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. HOWEVER, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  90  73  88  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
PANAMA CITY   74  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
DOTHAN        72  89  70  87  69 /  10  50  30  60  40
ALBANY        71  89  71  87  68 /  10  40  30  50  40
VALDOSTA      72  91  72  89  69 /  10  30  30  40  30
CROSS CITY    70  92  72  90  68 /  20  50  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  74  86  74 /  30  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities