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000
FXUS62 KTAE 011030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]... VFR conditions will prevail with the
exception of a few hours of MVFR at VLD and TLH this afternoon.
Included TEMPO groups for reduced visibility in thunderstorms for
these sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [349 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An area of increased moisture associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Erika will move into the Big Bend area today.
There will be a sharp PoP gradient, ranging from 10% in southeast
Alabama and the western panhandle to 70% in the Big Bend. A few of
the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves
onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and
disorganized this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

From tonight into Wednesday, the majority of convective activity
should remain focused in the southeastern portions of the area.
This will place the highest PoPs in the Florida Big Bend and far
south-central Georgia. Elsewhere, mostly dry and sunny weather is
expected with just some isolated showers or storms possible during
the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday. The reasoning
is that there should not be substantial changes to the overall
pattern from what is expected today, with a plume of higher
precipitable water values (associated with the remnants of Erika)
situated from Apalachee Bay into southeast Georgia. This is
conveyed by both global models and certain convection-allowing
models. With warm cloud depths occasionally exceeding 15,000 feet,
the aforementioned high PWATs, and weak flow, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. We reduced high temperatures slightly
on Wednesday in the areas of higher PoPs (upper 80s). Otherwise,
lows should be in the mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday is when the global models begin to diverge, as there are
questions about how an upper level low currently near coastal
Texas will evolve. The 00Z operational ECMWF takes this low east
along the Gulf coast more quickly, providing more forcing for
convection on Thursday. The 00Z operational GFS takes more time
with shortwave ridging and mid-level NVA expected instead. This
could lead to very different results, but for now we maintained a
30% PoP - slightly lower than the previous forecast but still
indicative of isolated to scattered showers and storms.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Despite quite a few subtle differences in the mesoscale among the
global models in the extended, there is generally good agreement
that an upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains into
the Ohio River valley. As the ridge builds to the north, a broad
and weakly defined area of lower heights and several weak +PV
anomalies should persist over the Southeast, which should be
sufficient to maintain rain chances through the forecast period.
Temperatures should be fairly close to normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period. The exception would be near thunderstorms; numerous storms
will be possible over the next couple days (some strong),
particularly over Apalachee Bay and to the east of Apalachicola.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

In general there is fairly good model agreement that heavy rain,
if it were to occur, would be focused over Apalachee Bay and into
the eastern Florida Big Bend (Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie Counties).
Average rain totals over the next couple days in those areas are
expected to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Training bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms could
produce some localized flooding. Elsewhere, rain amounts over the
next few days will mostly be less than an inch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  75  92  75  93 /  50  20  40  30  40
Panama City   92  76  89  78  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        92  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Albany        92  74  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  50  30  40
Cross City    86  75  89  75  91 /  70  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  90  75  89  78  91 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]... VFR conditions will prevail with the
exception of a few hours of MVFR at VLD and TLH this afternoon.
Included TEMPO groups for reduced visibility in thunderstorms for
these sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [349 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An area of increased moisture associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Erika will move into the Big Bend area today.
There will be a sharp PoP gradient, ranging from 10% in southeast
Alabama and the western panhandle to 70% in the Big Bend. A few of
the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves
onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and
disorganized this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

From tonight into Wednesday, the majority of convective activity
should remain focused in the southeastern portions of the area.
This will place the highest PoPs in the Florida Big Bend and far
south-central Georgia. Elsewhere, mostly dry and sunny weather is
expected with just some isolated showers or storms possible during
the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday. The reasoning
is that there should not be substantial changes to the overall
pattern from what is expected today, with a plume of higher
precipitable water values (associated with the remnants of Erika)
situated from Apalachee Bay into southeast Georgia. This is
conveyed by both global models and certain convection-allowing
models. With warm cloud depths occasionally exceeding 15,000 feet,
the aforementioned high PWATs, and weak flow, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. We reduced high temperatures slightly
on Wednesday in the areas of higher PoPs (upper 80s). Otherwise,
lows should be in the mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday is when the global models begin to diverge, as there are
questions about how an upper level low currently near coastal
Texas will evolve. The 00Z operational ECMWF takes this low east
along the Gulf coast more quickly, providing more forcing for
convection on Thursday. The 00Z operational GFS takes more time
with shortwave ridging and mid-level NVA expected instead. This
could lead to very different results, but for now we maintained a
30% PoP - slightly lower than the previous forecast but still
indicative of isolated to scattered showers and storms.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Despite quite a few subtle differences in the mesoscale among the
global models in the extended, there is generally good agreement
that an upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains into
the Ohio River valley. As the ridge builds to the north, a broad
and weakly defined area of lower heights and several weak +PV
anomalies should persist over the Southeast, which should be
sufficient to maintain rain chances through the forecast period.
Temperatures should be fairly close to normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period. The exception would be near thunderstorms; numerous storms
will be possible over the next couple days (some strong),
particularly over Apalachee Bay and to the east of Apalachicola.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

In general there is fairly good model agreement that heavy rain,
if it were to occur, would be focused over Apalachee Bay and into
the eastern Florida Big Bend (Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie Counties).
Average rain totals over the next couple days in those areas are
expected to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Training bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms could
produce some localized flooding. Elsewhere, rain amounts over the
next few days will mostly be less than an inch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  75  92  75  93 /  50  20  40  30  40
Panama City   92  76  89  78  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        92  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Albany        92  74  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  50  30  40
Cross City    86  75  89  75  91 /  70  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  90  75  89  78  91 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010749
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An area of increased moisture associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Erika will move into the Big Bend area today.
There will be a sharp PoP gradient, ranging from 10% in southeast
Alabama and the western panhandle to 70% in the Big Bend. A few of
the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves
onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and
disorganized this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

From tonight into Wednesday, the majority of convective activity
should remain focused in the southeastern portions of the area.
This will place the highest PoPs in the Florida Big Bend and far
south-central Georgia. Elsewhere, mostly dry and sunny weather is
expected with just some isolated showers or storms possible during
the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday. The reasoning
is that there should not be substantial changes to the overall
pattern from what is expected today, with a plume of higher
precipitable water values (associated with the remnants of Erika)
situated from Apalachee Bay into southeast Georgia. This is
conveyed by both global models and certain convection-allowing
models. With warm cloud depths occasionally exceeding 15,000 feet,
the aforementioned high PWATs, and weak flow, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. We reduced high temperatures slightly
on Wednesday in the areas of higher PoPs (upper 80s). Otherwise,
lows should be in the mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday is when the global models begin to diverge, as there are
questions about how an upper level low currently near coastal
Texas will evolve. The 00Z operational ECMWF takes this low east
along the Gulf coast more quickly, providing more forcing for
convection on Thursday. The 00Z operational GFS takes more time
with shortwave ridging and mid-level NVA expected instead. This
could lead to very different results, but for now we maintained a
30% PoP - slightly lower than the previous forecast but still
indicative of isolated to scattered showers and storms.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Despite quite a few subtle differences in the mesoscale among the
global models in the extended, there is generally good agreement
that an upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains into
the Ohio River valley. As the ridge builds to the north, a broad
and weakly defined area of lower heights and several weak +PV
anomalies should persist over the Southeast, which should be
sufficient to maintain rain chances through the forecast period.
Temperatures should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Greatest chance of thunderstorms will be
at VLD and TLH today. Included tempo groups for MVFR visibilities
this afternoon. VFR is expected at other terminals.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period. The exception would be near thunderstorms; numerous storms
will be possible over the next couple days (some strong),
particularly over Apalachee Bay and to the east of Apalachicola.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

In general there is fairly good model agreement that heavy rain,
if it were to occur, would be focused over Apalachee Bay and into
the eastern Florida Big Bend (Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie Counties).
Average rain totals over the next couple days in those areas are
expected to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Training bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms could
produce some localized flooding. Elsewhere, rain amounts over the
next few days will mostly be less than an inch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  75  92  75  93 /  50  20  40  30  40
Panama City   92  76  89  78  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        92  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Albany        92  74  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  50  30  40
Cross City    86  75  89  75  91 /  70  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  90  75  89  78  91 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010749
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An area of increased moisture associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Erika will move into the Big Bend area today.
There will be a sharp PoP gradient, ranging from 10% in southeast
Alabama and the western panhandle to 70% in the Big Bend. A few of
the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves
onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and
disorganized this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

From tonight into Wednesday, the majority of convective activity
should remain focused in the southeastern portions of the area.
This will place the highest PoPs in the Florida Big Bend and far
south-central Georgia. Elsewhere, mostly dry and sunny weather is
expected with just some isolated showers or storms possible during
the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday. The reasoning
is that there should not be substantial changes to the overall
pattern from what is expected today, with a plume of higher
precipitable water values (associated with the remnants of Erika)
situated from Apalachee Bay into southeast Georgia. This is
conveyed by both global models and certain convection-allowing
models. With warm cloud depths occasionally exceeding 15,000 feet,
the aforementioned high PWATs, and weak flow, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. We reduced high temperatures slightly
on Wednesday in the areas of higher PoPs (upper 80s). Otherwise,
lows should be in the mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday is when the global models begin to diverge, as there are
questions about how an upper level low currently near coastal
Texas will evolve. The 00Z operational ECMWF takes this low east
along the Gulf coast more quickly, providing more forcing for
convection on Thursday. The 00Z operational GFS takes more time
with shortwave ridging and mid-level NVA expected instead. This
could lead to very different results, but for now we maintained a
30% PoP - slightly lower than the previous forecast but still
indicative of isolated to scattered showers and storms.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Despite quite a few subtle differences in the mesoscale among the
global models in the extended, there is generally good agreement
that an upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains into
the Ohio River valley. As the ridge builds to the north, a broad
and weakly defined area of lower heights and several weak +PV
anomalies should persist over the Southeast, which should be
sufficient to maintain rain chances through the forecast period.
Temperatures should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Greatest chance of thunderstorms will be
at VLD and TLH today. Included tempo groups for MVFR visibilities
this afternoon. VFR is expected at other terminals.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period. The exception would be near thunderstorms; numerous storms
will be possible over the next couple days (some strong),
particularly over Apalachee Bay and to the east of Apalachicola.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

In general there is fairly good model agreement that heavy rain,
if it were to occur, would be focused over Apalachee Bay and into
the eastern Florida Big Bend (Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie Counties).
Average rain totals over the next couple days in those areas are
expected to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Training bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms could
produce some localized flooding. Elsewhere, rain amounts over the
next few days will mostly be less than an inch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  75  92  75  93 /  50  20  40  30  40
Panama City   92  76  89  78  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        92  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Albany        92  74  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  50  30  40
Cross City    86  75  89  75  91 /  70  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  90  75  89  78  91 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311946
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Higher precipitable water values have remained confined along the
Suwannee River as can be seen in the blended total precipitable
water satellite estimates. This region of higher moisture is a
combination of the northern extant of the remnants of Erika (now a
trough over southwest FL) and the southern extant of a weak front.
Below normal PW values are seen to the west, which has helped
inhibit convection over most of the area so far today. Water vapor
and visible satellite imagery reveal a very weak PV anomaly over the
northern AL-GA border. An isolated storm or two is still possible in
our SE AL and SW GA counties from this, though areas along the
Suwannee River will be the most likely to receive rainfall today.
Storms may continue through the overnight hours over the coastal
waters, but will die off quickly after sunset over land. Highs today
will struggle to peak in the low 90s today thanks to extensive low
level cloud cover this morning, but will dip into the low 70s
overnight.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Although the numerical guidance takes the main upper +PV anomaly
northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through northeast FL
tonight and Tuesday, our forecast area will still have an increase
in potential vorticity as well as deep layer moisture. A blend of
the various MOS and ECAM yields a PoP on Tuesday which ranges from
nil from Dothan and Panama City northwestward, to likely from
Tallahassee eastward. As deep layer moisture becomes more evenly
distributed on Wednesday, so will the PoP, which will generally be
in the 30-50% range (highest west). Highs will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Strangely, the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height patterns are in better
agreement at the end of the period than at the beginning. Without
going into too many details, both models gradually develop a broad
cutoff low over the Southeast next weekend and into early next week.
At the surface, a backdoor cold front will translate southward
through our forecast area sometime over the weekend. Blending the
GFS and ECMWF solutions yields near-climo PoPs (around 40%) and
temperatures (lows in the 70s, highs around 90).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light, less than 10 knots, from the north
today, shifting to the east overnight. Isolated showers at our
northern terminals today and southeastern terminals tomorrow are
shown with VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

But for onshore breezes near the coast in the afternoon, winds will
be generally light from a direction ranging from the N to E through
mid week, as a weak low pressure trough remains across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With minimum relative humidities mostly in the 50s and winds light
over the next several days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected. High dispersion values are expected late this
afternoon into early evening across the northern Big Bend area.

&&

.Hydrology...

There is good agreement among the global models and ECAM that the
focus for heaviest rain will likely be later tonight through Tuesday
over Apalachee Bay and along the coast of the FL Big Bend. Average
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected at the coast, with locally
higher amounts of up to 5 inches possible. This is unlikely to
cause widespread flooding, but isolated flooding is possible if
the heaviest rain occurs in the wrong spot. Elsewhere, rain
amounts over the next few days will mostly be less than an inch.
River stages were below their local action stages this afternoon,
and this is likely to continue for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  74  91  75 /  10  50  30  40  30
Panama City   76  90  76  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
Dothan        72  92  73  92  74 /   0  10  10  30  20
Albany        72  91  73  92  74 /   0  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  89  74 /  10  60  40  60  30
Cross City    75  86  74  90  75 /  30  70  40  40  40
Apalachicola  76  89  76  89  77 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...Jackson
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311946
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Higher precipitable water values have remained confined along the
Suwannee River as can be seen in the blended total precipitable
water satellite estimates. This region of higher moisture is a
combination of the northern extant of the remnants of Erika (now a
trough over southwest FL) and the southern extant of a weak front.
Below normal PW values are seen to the west, which has helped
inhibit convection over most of the area so far today. Water vapor
and visible satellite imagery reveal a very weak PV anomaly over the
northern AL-GA border. An isolated storm or two is still possible in
our SE AL and SW GA counties from this, though areas along the
Suwannee River will be the most likely to receive rainfall today.
Storms may continue through the overnight hours over the coastal
waters, but will die off quickly after sunset over land. Highs today
will struggle to peak in the low 90s today thanks to extensive low
level cloud cover this morning, but will dip into the low 70s
overnight.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Although the numerical guidance takes the main upper +PV anomaly
northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through northeast FL
tonight and Tuesday, our forecast area will still have an increase
in potential vorticity as well as deep layer moisture. A blend of
the various MOS and ECAM yields a PoP on Tuesday which ranges from
nil from Dothan and Panama City northwestward, to likely from
Tallahassee eastward. As deep layer moisture becomes more evenly
distributed on Wednesday, so will the PoP, which will generally be
in the 30-50% range (highest west). Highs will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Strangely, the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height patterns are in better
agreement at the end of the period than at the beginning. Without
going into too many details, both models gradually develop a broad
cutoff low over the Southeast next weekend and into early next week.
At the surface, a backdoor cold front will translate southward
through our forecast area sometime over the weekend. Blending the
GFS and ECMWF solutions yields near-climo PoPs (around 40%) and
temperatures (lows in the 70s, highs around 90).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light, less than 10 knots, from the north
today, shifting to the east overnight. Isolated showers at our
northern terminals today and southeastern terminals tomorrow are
shown with VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

But for onshore breezes near the coast in the afternoon, winds will
be generally light from a direction ranging from the N to E through
mid week, as a weak low pressure trough remains across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With minimum relative humidities mostly in the 50s and winds light
over the next several days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected. High dispersion values are expected late this
afternoon into early evening across the northern Big Bend area.

&&

.Hydrology...

There is good agreement among the global models and ECAM that the
focus for heaviest rain will likely be later tonight through Tuesday
over Apalachee Bay and along the coast of the FL Big Bend. Average
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected at the coast, with locally
higher amounts of up to 5 inches possible. This is unlikely to
cause widespread flooding, but isolated flooding is possible if
the heaviest rain occurs in the wrong spot. Elsewhere, rain
amounts over the next few days will mostly be less than an inch.
River stages were below their local action stages this afternoon,
and this is likely to continue for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  74  91  75 /  10  50  30  40  30
Panama City   76  90  76  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
Dothan        72  92  73  92  74 /   0  10  10  30  20
Albany        72  91  73  92  74 /   0  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  89  74 /  10  60  40  60  30
Cross City    75  86  74  90  75 /  30  70  40  40  40
Apalachicola  76  89  76  89  77 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...Jackson
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311946
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Higher precipitable water values have remained confined along the
Suwannee River as can be seen in the blended total precipitable
water satellite estimates. This region of higher moisture is a
combination of the northern extant of the remnants of Erika (now a
trough over southwest FL) and the southern extant of a weak front.
Below normal PW values are seen to the west, which has helped
inhibit convection over most of the area so far today. Water vapor
and visible satellite imagery reveal a very weak PV anomaly over the
northern AL-GA border. An isolated storm or two is still possible in
our SE AL and SW GA counties from this, though areas along the
Suwannee River will be the most likely to receive rainfall today.
Storms may continue through the overnight hours over the coastal
waters, but will die off quickly after sunset over land. Highs today
will struggle to peak in the low 90s today thanks to extensive low
level cloud cover this morning, but will dip into the low 70s
overnight.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Although the numerical guidance takes the main upper +PV anomaly
northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through northeast FL
tonight and Tuesday, our forecast area will still have an increase
in potential vorticity as well as deep layer moisture. A blend of
the various MOS and ECAM yields a PoP on Tuesday which ranges from
nil from Dothan and Panama City northwestward, to likely from
Tallahassee eastward. As deep layer moisture becomes more evenly
distributed on Wednesday, so will the PoP, which will generally be
in the 30-50% range (highest west). Highs will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Strangely, the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height patterns are in better
agreement at the end of the period than at the beginning. Without
going into too many details, both models gradually develop a broad
cutoff low over the Southeast next weekend and into early next week.
At the surface, a backdoor cold front will translate southward
through our forecast area sometime over the weekend. Blending the
GFS and ECMWF solutions yields near-climo PoPs (around 40%) and
temperatures (lows in the 70s, highs around 90).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light, less than 10 knots, from the north
today, shifting to the east overnight. Isolated showers at our
northern terminals today and southeastern terminals tomorrow are
shown with VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

But for onshore breezes near the coast in the afternoon, winds will
be generally light from a direction ranging from the N to E through
mid week, as a weak low pressure trough remains across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With minimum relative humidities mostly in the 50s and winds light
over the next several days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected. High dispersion values are expected late this
afternoon into early evening across the northern Big Bend area.

&&

.Hydrology...

There is good agreement among the global models and ECAM that the
focus for heaviest rain will likely be later tonight through Tuesday
over Apalachee Bay and along the coast of the FL Big Bend. Average
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected at the coast, with locally
higher amounts of up to 5 inches possible. This is unlikely to
cause widespread flooding, but isolated flooding is possible if
the heaviest rain occurs in the wrong spot. Elsewhere, rain
amounts over the next few days will mostly be less than an inch.
River stages were below their local action stages this afternoon,
and this is likely to continue for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  74  91  75 /  10  50  30  40  30
Panama City   76  90  76  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
Dothan        72  92  73  92  74 /   0  10  10  30  20
Albany        72  91  73  92  74 /   0  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  89  74 /  10  60  40  60  30
Cross City    75  86  74  90  75 /  30  70  40  40  40
Apalachicola  76  89  76  89  77 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...Jackson
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311946
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Higher precipitable water values have remained confined along the
Suwannee River as can be seen in the blended total precipitable
water satellite estimates. This region of higher moisture is a
combination of the northern extant of the remnants of Erika (now a
trough over southwest FL) and the southern extant of a weak front.
Below normal PW values are seen to the west, which has helped
inhibit convection over most of the area so far today. Water vapor
and visible satellite imagery reveal a very weak PV anomaly over the
northern AL-GA border. An isolated storm or two is still possible in
our SE AL and SW GA counties from this, though areas along the
Suwannee River will be the most likely to receive rainfall today.
Storms may continue through the overnight hours over the coastal
waters, but will die off quickly after sunset over land. Highs today
will struggle to peak in the low 90s today thanks to extensive low
level cloud cover this morning, but will dip into the low 70s
overnight.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Although the numerical guidance takes the main upper +PV anomaly
northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through northeast FL
tonight and Tuesday, our forecast area will still have an increase
in potential vorticity as well as deep layer moisture. A blend of
the various MOS and ECAM yields a PoP on Tuesday which ranges from
nil from Dothan and Panama City northwestward, to likely from
Tallahassee eastward. As deep layer moisture becomes more evenly
distributed on Wednesday, so will the PoP, which will generally be
in the 30-50% range (highest west). Highs will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Strangely, the GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height patterns are in better
agreement at the end of the period than at the beginning. Without
going into too many details, both models gradually develop a broad
cutoff low over the Southeast next weekend and into early next week.
At the surface, a backdoor cold front will translate southward
through our forecast area sometime over the weekend. Blending the
GFS and ECMWF solutions yields near-climo PoPs (around 40%) and
temperatures (lows in the 70s, highs around 90).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light, less than 10 knots, from the north
today, shifting to the east overnight. Isolated showers at our
northern terminals today and southeastern terminals tomorrow are
shown with VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

But for onshore breezes near the coast in the afternoon, winds will
be generally light from a direction ranging from the N to E through
mid week, as a weak low pressure trough remains across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With minimum relative humidities mostly in the 50s and winds light
over the next several days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected. High dispersion values are expected late this
afternoon into early evening across the northern Big Bend area.

&&

.Hydrology...

There is good agreement among the global models and ECAM that the
focus for heaviest rain will likely be later tonight through Tuesday
over Apalachee Bay and along the coast of the FL Big Bend. Average
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected at the coast, with locally
higher amounts of up to 5 inches possible. This is unlikely to
cause widespread flooding, but isolated flooding is possible if
the heaviest rain occurs in the wrong spot. Elsewhere, rain
amounts over the next few days will mostly be less than an inch.
River stages were below their local action stages this afternoon,
and this is likely to continue for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  74  91  75 /  10  50  30  40  30
Panama City   76  90  76  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
Dothan        72  92  73  92  74 /   0  10  10  30  20
Albany        72  91  73  92  74 /   0  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  89  74 /  10  60  40  60  30
Cross City    75  86  74  90  75 /  30  70  40  40  40
Apalachicola  76  89  76  89  77 /  40  40  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...Jackson
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311457
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Fog and low clouds are hanging in still northeast of a line from
Enterprise, AL down to Carrabelle, FL, but should burn off over
the next hour or so. Local radar imagery shows some scattered
thunderstorms offshore in the northeastern Gulf associated with
the remnants of Erika. Convection is still expected to develop
northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north-
northeast. In our forecast area, this will mean the storms
focusing rain over the southeast Big Bend and coastal waters. Over
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, more isolated convection
will be possible as a weak upper level shortwave trough passes
through northern Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.Prev Discussion [601 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311457
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Fog and low clouds are hanging in still northeast of a line from
Enterprise, AL down to Carrabelle, FL, but should burn off over
the next hour or so. Local radar imagery shows some scattered
thunderstorms offshore in the northeastern Gulf associated with
the remnants of Erika. Convection is still expected to develop
northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north-
northeast. In our forecast area, this will mean the storms
focusing rain over the southeast Big Bend and coastal waters. Over
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, more isolated convection
will be possible as a weak upper level shortwave trough passes
through northern Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.Prev Discussion [601 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311457
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Fog and low clouds are hanging in still northeast of a line from
Enterprise, AL down to Carrabelle, FL, but should burn off over
the next hour or so. Local radar imagery shows some scattered
thunderstorms offshore in the northeastern Gulf associated with
the remnants of Erika. Convection is still expected to develop
northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north-
northeast. In our forecast area, this will mean the storms
focusing rain over the southeast Big Bend and coastal waters. Over
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, more isolated convection
will be possible as a weak upper level shortwave trough passes
through northern Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.Prev Discussion [601 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311457
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Fog and low clouds are hanging in still northeast of a line from
Enterprise, AL down to Carrabelle, FL, but should burn off over
the next hour or so. Local radar imagery shows some scattered
thunderstorms offshore in the northeastern Gulf associated with
the remnants of Erika. Convection is still expected to develop
northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north-
northeast. In our forecast area, this will mean the storms
focusing rain over the southeast Big Bend and coastal waters. Over
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, more isolated convection
will be possible as a weak upper level shortwave trough passes
through northern Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.Prev Discussion [601 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
601 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 311001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
601 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
601 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 311001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
601 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 310729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Tuesday] LIFR/IFR CIGS are likely this morning at
ABY and VLD, and possible at KTLH. Elsewhere a brief period of
MVFR visibilities will be possible near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon, with
showers and storms remaining east of all of our terminals.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 310729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The surface trough that is the remnants of Erika will remain east
of most of our region today. The exception will be across the
southeast Big Bend where PWATs are between 1.75-2" this morning
and expected to gradually increase a bit as the trough lifts north
through the day. Elsewhere, much drier air will be present with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 90s. There may be a few
showers later today across southeast Alabama where a weak wave and
surface trough will pass, though with the lack of moisture any
convection should remain shallow, light, and short-lived.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Tuesday] LIFR/IFR CIGS are likely this morning at
ABY and VLD, and possible at KTLH. Elsewhere a brief period of
MVFR visibilities will be possible near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon, with
showers and storms remaining east of all of our terminals.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  20   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  20  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 310128
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast
area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier
mid and upper level air into the area. Expect a similar trend
tonight with mainly dry conditions except for a slight chance of
convection across the eastern fringe. Overnight lows will mainly
range from around 70 to the mid 70s across the region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
late tonight with brief low cigs and/or a bit of patchy fog for a
few hours. Most of the convection that develops on Monday is
expected to be east and south of the TAF sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 310128
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast
area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier
mid and upper level air into the area. Expect a similar trend
tonight with mainly dry conditions except for a slight chance of
convection across the eastern fringe. Overnight lows will mainly
range from around 70 to the mid 70s across the region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
late tonight with brief low cigs and/or a bit of patchy fog for a
few hours. Most of the convection that develops on Monday is
expected to be east and south of the TAF sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Upper low will continue to lift northeastward overnight and
gradually weaken. The dry mid/upper level air drawn northward by the
upper low will limit shower activity overnight with the best chances
for rain over the eastern Big Bend counties.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expect to prevail through
most of the afternoon with a few showers or thunderstorms
approaching KVLD and KABY. Overnight, low cigs are a possibility
at all terminals (with the possible exception of KECP).

&&

.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Upper low will continue to lift northeastward overnight and
gradually weaken. The dry mid/upper level air drawn northward by the
upper low will limit shower activity overnight with the best chances
for rain over the eastern Big Bend counties.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expect to prevail through
most of the afternoon with a few showers or thunderstorms
approaching KVLD and KABY. Overnight, low cigs are a possibility
at all terminals (with the possible exception of KECP).

&&

.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301428
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving steadily
northeast across SE Alabama this morning. A dry slot to the east
of the low is pushing well inland into the Big Bend and SW
Georgia. This drying should help to limit thunderstorm activity
for the western half of the area this afternoon, with the best
chances confined to the eastern third, where deep layer moisture
will remain most plentiful. Current forecast is on track with
temperatures still expected to climb into the lower 90s as skies
clear.

&&

.Prev Discussion [657 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 301428
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving steadily
northeast across SE Alabama this morning. A dry slot to the east
of the low is pushing well inland into the Big Bend and SW
Georgia. This drying should help to limit thunderstorm activity
for the western half of the area this afternoon, with the best
chances confined to the eastern third, where deep layer moisture
will remain most plentiful. Current forecast is on track with
temperatures still expected to climb into the lower 90s as skies
clear.

&&

.Prev Discussion [657 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is gradually weakening this evening. However, given the
upper trough west of the area, isolated to scattered showers
will be possible through the overnight hours with the greatest
concentration over the northwest portions of the area. Overnight
lows are expected to range from the upper 60s in the northwest
part of the area to the mid 70s across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Monday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible late
tonight with low cigs and a bit of fog expected. Scattered
convection is expected for Sunday afternoon with most activity
concentrated closest to VLD and less activity near DHN and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely steer the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  40  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  20  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  60  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is gradually weakening this evening. However, given the
upper trough west of the area, isolated to scattered showers
will be possible through the overnight hours with the greatest
concentration over the northwest portions of the area. Overnight
lows are expected to range from the upper 60s in the northwest
part of the area to the mid 70s across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Monday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible late
tonight with low cigs and a bit of fog expected. Scattered
convection is expected for Sunday afternoon with most activity
concentrated closest to VLD and less activity near DHN and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely steer the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  40  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  20  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  60  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




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