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000
FXUS62 KTAE 240626
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A shortwave trough will move through the region this morning.
Ahead of this feature, mid and high level cloudiness will
continue to stream over the region. By late morning and early
afternoon, as the main trough axis moves east of the region,
skies will become mostly sunny allowing for temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through
the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very
dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly
modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s
tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by
Sunday.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday.
At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this
trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among
the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high
pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the
deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum.
Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until
Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the
northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now
much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the
forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model
guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean
Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] Aside from a CS layer between 20kft and
25kft moving through the region on Friday morning, skies will be
clear throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle with light N to
NE winds during the daytime hours.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the
region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in
North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag
criteria are not expected to be met.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  44  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  54  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  46  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  46  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  46  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  52  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL









000
FXUS62 KTAE 240157
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is fairly well on track, and only significant change
was to increase the cloud cover to account for the advancing
cirrus and cirrostratus out ahead of the next dry cold front.
However, this cloudiness should move through fast enough overnight
to have minimal impacts on overnight low temps.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Outside of the high cloudiness, the
persistent VFR conditions with light winds will continue at the
terminals through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 240157
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is fairly well on track, and only significant change
was to increase the cloud cover to account for the advancing
cirrus and cirrostratus out ahead of the next dry cold front.
However, this cloudiness should move through fast enough overnight
to have minimal impacts on overnight low temps.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Outside of the high cloudiness, the
persistent VFR conditions with light winds will continue at the
terminals through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the
wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal
today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in
the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in
the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later
tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive
later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the
wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal
today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in
the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in
the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later
tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive
later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 231504
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a very shallow inversion
layer around only 800 ft AGL. This shallow inversion has mixed out
quickly, which allowed the TLH temperature to increase from 43 to
63 (20 degree increase) in just two hours between 8 AM and 10 AM.
However, a stronger frontal inversion aloft should limit how warm
the temperatures can get today, despite sunny skies. Model
consensus is in the mid-upper 70s for highs, and that is what we
are forecasting as well. There were very few changes from the
inherited forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.


.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.


.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230653
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are on tap for today as
the region remains situated between high pressure to the north, a
nor`easter off the New England coast, and lower pressure over the
southern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        75  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221934
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The main forecast concern was low temperatures for tonight, as high
pressure building in will keep skies clear with no precipitation.
The 12Z Tallahassee sounding had PWAT of 0.42", and that is expected
to drop to around 0.25" by 12Z tomorrow morning. Those values of
precipitable water are near minimum values in the radiosonde record
for this time of October. Given the lack of atmospheric moisture,
relatively light or calm winds overnight, and clear skies,
radiational cooling should be very efficient overnight. For this
reason we trended the forecast closer to the cooler ECMWF MOS. This
produce widespread lows in the lower 40s, except closer to the
low-mid 50s right at the Gulf coast. Also, low temperatures in the
city of Tallahassee could be about 10 degrees warmer than at the TLH
airport (low 50s vs low 40s).


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    44  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The morning sounding from Tallahassee showed a PWAT of 0.42
inches, which is very close to the 10th percentile for the 2 week
period centered on October 22nd (0.47"). In other words, the
moisture content in the atmosphere is anomalously low for this
time of year, and that means another day of dry weather and sunny
skies. In fact, 18 of the 21 days so far in October have seen no
measurable precipitation at TLH, and we should add another today.
Despite that, rainfall for the month is still above normal thanks
to the 4.72" of rain that fell back on the 14th. High temperatures
today should be cooler than yesterday as a surface high pressure
builds south into the region. Highs should be mostly in the 70s,
with a few highs around 80 possible in our Florida zones.

&&

.Prev Discussion [234 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In general, an upper level trough will dominate the Southeast
through Friday. The only exception will be a brief period of
nearly zonal flow on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail, albeit weak. Dry air aloft, and northerly low-layer flow
will preclude any rain chances. Afternoon highs will remain a few
degrees below average, in the middle to upper 70s. More noticeable,
overnight lows will run about 10 degrees below average, dipping
into the middle 40s each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period.


.Marine...

On-and-off cautionary level winds should be expected for the next
several days as high pressure builds south into the northern Gulf,
with winds increasing between it and newly formed TD 9 currently
in the Bay of Campeche.


.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a dry
cold front. At this time, humidity values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.


.Hydrology...

No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Subsequently, there
will be no hydrological concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  44  77  44  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   79  53  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        75  44  75  45  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        74  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      77  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    81  45  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220634
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A slightly cooler and drier airmass will push into the region today
as high pressure drops south towards the Gulf Coast in the wake of
the deep low off the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures should be 5-7
degrees cooler than Tuesday afternoon under clear skies and light
northeasterly winds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In general, an upper level trough will dominate the Southeast
through Friday. The only exception will be a brief period of
nearly zonal flow on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail, albeit weak. Dry air aloft, and northerly low-layer flow
will preclude any rain chances. Afternoon highs will remain a few
degrees below average, in the middle to upper 70s. More noticeable,
overnight lows will run about 10 degrees below average, dipping
into the middle 40s each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

On-and-off cautionary level winds should be expected for the next
several days as high pressure builds south into the northern Gulf,
with winds increasing between it and newly formed TD 9 currently
in the Bay of Campeche.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a dry
cold front. At this time, humidity values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Subsequently, there
will be no hydrological concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  44  77  44  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   80  53  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        76  44  75  45  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        75  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      77  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    82  45  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220240
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track, and expect a generally clear and
cool night with near calm winds across the Tri-State area. The only
concern will be across the Coastal Waters, where winds may approach
cautionary levels towards morning.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will
dominate the tafs through the period. Winds will begin to increase
a bit out of the N-NE at most sites Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through
on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry
airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs
both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass
in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night
will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to
the lower 50s along the coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves
through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday
night, especially farther offshore.


.Fire Weather...
Progressively drier air will continue to filter into
the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are
expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for
Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  80  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  81  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Skies have remained sunny across much of the area today with a
relatively dry air mass in place. This is expected to continue
through tonight with the deeper moisture positioned to the south
over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Given the dry
air mass, clear skies, and calm winds, we expect a fairly cool
night with below normal temperatures. The low temperature forecast
calls for upper 40s north, to around 50 in the I-10 corridor, to
the low to mid 50s at the coast. We followed the general pattern
of the multi-model consensus, but undercut it by a degree or two
given the favorable conditions for efficient radiational cooling.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through
on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry
airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs
both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass
in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night
will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to
the lower 50s along the coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with clear skies are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Northwest to north
winds around 5-10 knots will become calm overnight.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves
through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday
night, especially farther offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Progressively drier air will continue to filter into
the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are
expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for
Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  80  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  81  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The first few frames of morning visible satellite reveal that our
forecast area is situated just north of a more extensive mid-high
level cloud deck associated with a deeper moisture plume and upper
level jet streak. This should provide a sunny day with very
limited cloud cover. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding did reveal +1C
temperature change below 850mb as compared to 24 hours prior. The
slight warming of the boundary layer and sunny skies should lead
to a slightly warmer day with highs in the low-mid 80s, which is
just above normal for this time of year.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become
vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and
off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will
continue to reside on the backside of the associated though
through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually
transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will
keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area
through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down
from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the
region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold
frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both
days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in
place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will
range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s
along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the
lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along
the coast.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.


.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR
visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear
skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF.


.Marine...

Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the
work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday
and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds
today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and
Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met,
duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high
dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold
front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this
time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be
exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high
dispersion indices.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  51  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  59  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        82  50  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  49  77  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  51  77  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  53  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  59  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD








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