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000
FXUS62 KTAE 231435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging is beginning to spread into the region on the
heels of a series of departing shortwaves. Significant drying of
the column is noted above 700 mb in this mornings sounding. In the
lowest levels though, moisture remains as the cold front
separating the drier air from the more moist airmass sits across
south-central Georgia and southern Alabama. Ahead of this front,
expect a seabreeze to develop this afternoon, with limited inland
propagation under the light northwesterly flow regime. A few light
quick hitting showers may be possible later this afternoon along
the seabreeze, though they should be confined to within 30 or so
miles from the coast. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s away
from the coast, and the middle 70s along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

Restrictions have cleared at all terminals and VFR is expected for
the remainder of the afternoon. Another round of low ceilings and
fog can be expected overnight, especially across north Florida.

&&

.Prev Discussion [651 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.


.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   77  62  77  63  73 /  20   0  10  10  10
Dothan        82  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      84  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  20   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 231051
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
651 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] IFR conditions have taken hold at KTLH,
KECP, and KABY this morning. However, cigs and vsby should remain
mostly above airport minimums. VFR conditions expected by mid-
morning through the evening. A repeat of the low clouds and some
fog is expected again tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the
region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern
states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is
expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a
very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at
most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along
the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down
several degrees.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.


.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  77  63  73 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        81  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      82  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY









000
FXUS62 KTAE 230729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the
region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern
states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is
expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a
very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at
most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along
the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down
several degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Low clouds along with some fog is expected
to spread across the Florida Panhandle into the Big Bend through the
remainder of the overnight hours. This will result in IFR conditions
at both KTLH and KECP. IFR conditions will also be possible at KABY,
where some rain fell earlier. By mid-morning, VFR conditions should
return and prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  77  63  73 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        81  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      82  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 230102
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to reflect current
forecast thinking. A weak cold front will slowly continue to move
southeastward overnight before stalling out in our far southern
CWA early tomorrow morning. There are ongoing showers ahead of the
frontal boundary over our northern Georgia and Alabama counties,
but due to lack of forcing expect a diminishing trend as they move
further south. Hires guidance, such as the HRRR and locally run
WRFS, and recent radar trends support this notion. Therefore
expect showers ending shortly after midnight before they reach the
Florida border. Beginning in the early morning hours before
sunrise expect patchy fog to develop throughout the CWA. The
greatest chance of seeing more widespread fog exists from
Tallahassee westward into the Florida Panhandle during this
aforementioned time frame. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy night
with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s, except along the
immediate coast which will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Thursday]...VFR conditions prevail at
TAF issuance time, with some higher ceilings at the northern
terminals of DHN and ABY with some scattered SHRA. The SHRA should
diminish quickly between 00z and 03z this evening, although some
mid-level cloud cover may linger further north. Models indicate
the development of some areas of low CIGS and fog overnight -
particularly between 07z and 12z - with IFR or briefly LIFR VIS
possible. Confidence is higher in this occurring at TLH, ECP, and
VLD. VFR expected again tomorrow after the fog dissipates, with an
afternoon sea breeze wind shift at ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [205 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The mid/upper level local pattern begins with shortwave trough well
into Atlc replaced by amplified ridging...rising heights and
subsidence. At surface...remnants of Tuesday`s cold front limps
into our SE Big Bend Swwd into our Nrn marine area. In its
wake...area model soundings show flow sfc-upper levels NWLY
however with proximity of front...PWATS remain around 1 inch.

During the rest of the period...local ridge amplifies into Thurs
ahead of upstream trough/low developing over Wrn states. By
aftn... this low pivots Newd resulting in Ern ridge flattening
yielding near zonal flow. At surface...increasingly diffuse front
lingers in place before likely lifting Nwd late Wed into Thurs as
high develops over NE Gulf and...along with ridge across Nrn Gulf
Coast...remains established into Thurs night. The combination of
strong mid/upper subsidence and weakening front south will yield
partly to mostly sunny skies. The lifting front will shift local
winds to onshore on Thurs with rising humidity as reflected in
model PWATS which remain around 1 inch. So it will feel muggy.
With very dry mid/upper levels...at best isold POPs near the
front. Temperatures will be near climatology through the period,
with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

On Friday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great
Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low
moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow
off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area Friday through
Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface
flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day.
At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified
pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over
the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and
structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong
upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east.
This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north into tonight, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.


.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage, several
others are in moderate. Most area rivers will crest soon or have
already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River chich will rise
slowly for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts are expected
to be less than 0.25 inch and will have little impact on area river
levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  83  58  82  61 /  10   0   0  10   0
Panama City   61  78  63  75  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        58  83  57  83  61 /  40   0   0  10  10
Albany        56  83  56  83  60 /  50   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      57  84  59  83  60 /  30  10  10  20   0
Cross City    60  83  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  20   0
Apalachicola  62  76  63  74  63 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/GOULD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221805
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The local pattern shows that mid/upper low amplitude shortwave
trough over local area this eve moves SEWD and offshore overnight to
be replaced by upstream shortwave ridging thru overnight hours.
At the surface...this will push cold front to S/Cntrl AL/GA by
sundown with assocd shwrs and thunderstorms ahead of front reaching
our Nrn tier counties and increasing west winds. With mid/upper
trough and support exiting...The front and assocd precip will
continue to weaken and likely stall across extreme N FL and become
oriented east to west.

The deepest moisture and best lift with this system will stay well
to our north. Locally...poor mid level lapse rates...meager CAPE and
loss of sun translates to marginal instability and deep layer shear
so chance for strong storms not high. Still...evening guidance shows
vorticity axis from SC across FL Panhandle into NW Gulf. H5 temps
will be cool enough i.e. -14C combined with aftn temps in the low
80s and dew points approaching 60 degrees...enough ingredients
lingering into eve for isold Tstms.

Our local CAM forecasts best chances of preccip will be closest to
upper support...NE tier GA counties with increasingly limited POPs
NE-SW. All of the MOS and dynamical guidance forecast a strong
weakening/drying trend after midnight so divided POPs into 3hr
GRIDS. Sharp 50-0% NW-SE evening POP gradient. With loss of sun
and dynamics....NIL POPs after midnight. Good chance for low
stratus and at least patchy fog ahead of front.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The mid/upper level local pattern begins with shortwave trough well
into Atlc replaced by amplified ridging...rising heights and
subsidence. At surface...remnants of Tuesday`s cold front limps
into our SE Big Bend Swwd into our Nrn marine area. In its
wake...area model soundings show flow sfc-upper levels NWLY
however with proximity of front...PWATS remain around 1 inch.

During the rest of the period...local ridge amplifies into Thurs
ahead of upstream trough/low developing over Wrn states. By
aftn... this low pivots Newd resulting in Ern ridge flattening
yielding near zonal flow. At surface...increasingly diffuse front
lingers in place before likely lifting Nwd late Wed into Thurs as
high develops over NE Gulf and...along with ridge across Nrn Gulf
Coast...remains established into Thurs night. The combination of
strong mid/upper subsidence and weakening front south will yield
partly to mostly sunny skies. The lifting front will shift local
winds to onshore on Thurs with rising humidity as reflected in
model PWATS which remain around 1 inch. So it will feel muggy.
With very dry mid/upper levels...at best isold POPs near the
front. Temperatures will be near climatology through the period,
with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

On Friday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great
Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low
moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow
off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area Friday through
Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface
flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day.
At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified
pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over
the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and
structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong
upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east.
This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR cigs and vsbys will prevail today
before another round of fog tomorrow morning. Around 20Z,
thunderstorms will move in to the northern terminals (DHN, ABY)
from west to east, exiting the area by around 03Z. Around 09Z,
area BR and FG will set in again across the area. The lowest
cigs/vsbys will be at TLH and VLD with LIFR conditions possible.
Guidance hinted at low vsbys along with low cigs at ECP, but left
out since winds are expected to remain around 5 kts overnight.

&&

.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north into tonight, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage, several
others are in moderate. Most area rivers will crest soon or have
already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River chich will rise
slowly for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts are expected
to be less than 0.25 inch and will have little impact on area river
levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  82  58  82  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
Panama City   65  77  63  75  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        61  82  57  83  62 /  30   0   0  10  10
Albany        60  82  56  83  61 /  40   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      61  83  59  83  61 /  20  10  10  20   0
Cross City    61  82  59  82  60 /  10  10  10  20   0
Apalachicola  63  75  63  74  64 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN








000
FXUS62 KTAE 221347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The local pattern this morning shows a mid/upper low amplitude
shortwave trough at the surface...a low on NY/Que border with slow
moving cold front across Nrn GA/AL. Satellite water vapor shows a
large area of showers and Tstms along and ahead of front moving Ewd.
In response..high pressure over the Ern Gulf shifts SWD allowing for
increasing lower cloud cover from NW-SE approaching NW CWA as
noted on Satellite VIZ.

During the rest of today...shortwave trough axis move east of CWFA
replaced by upstream ridging. This will push cold front to
S/Cntrl AL/GA by sundown with chances of precipitation increasing
into the late aftn. West winds ahead of front will increase to 10
to 15 mph. The deepest moisture and best lift with this system
will stay to our north. Locally...poor mid level lapse rates and
meager lower moisture translates to marginal instability and deep
layer shear so chance for strong to severe storms not high.
Still...H5 temps will be cool enough i.e. -14C combined with
surface temps in the low 80s and dew points approaching 60
degrees...enough ingredients for at least isold Tstms.

Since latest run has slowed down the front...onset of POPs have been
modestly delayed. PoPs by late afternoon show sharp 50-10% NW-SE
pop gradient. Kept mention of isolated to wdly sct TSTMS. QPF
amounts will generally be under one-quarter of an inch. Max Temps
will be in lower 80s inland areas and mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Wednesday]...As morning fog continues to clear out
this morning, VFR cigs and vsbys will become prevailing. Around
18Z, thunderstorms will move in to the northern terminals (DHN,
ABY) from west to east, exiting the area by around 00Z. Around
09Z, MVFR visbys and IFR-LIFR cigs possible again at most sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [235 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The 500 mb positive tilted trough (currently beginning to cross the
Southeast) will pass southeastward over our forecast area tonight,
but the accompanying weak cold front will stall across extreme North
FL and become oriented east to west. The forecast Q-vector and
omega fields are not that impressive, which may help explain why
neither the GFS or NAM MOS "likes" this system, and have PoPs of
only around 20%. However, our local Ensemble of Convection Allowing
Models (ECAM) forecasts good coverage of rain this evening across
South GA & AL, and its PoP is in the 50-80% range (but only 20%
around Tallahassee and Panama City). We blended the two sets of
differing guidance to come up with a PoP of around 50%. All of the
MOS and dynamical guidance forecast a strong weakening/drying trend
after midnight. Despite lack-luster synoptic scale forcing and
SBCAPE values of only around 1000 J/kg, a few thunderstorms are
possible- perhaps aided by fairly steep mid tropospheric lapse rates
of 6.5 deg/km. The lack of strong winds aloft, marginal CAPE, and
the rapid onset of nocturnal cooling all make severe thunderstorms
unlikely. Forecast updraft speeds are in the 10-15 m/s range, which
are usually not enough to support severe hail.

Despite the presence of a quasi-stationary front in extreme North FL
on Wednesday, the PoP will be 10% or less as the mid troposphere
warms and dries considerably. There may be a slight increase in deep
layer moisture on Thursday afternoon, and with the frontal system
still in the region, could lead to a shower or two. However, we`re
only carrying a 10% PoP for now. Temperatures will be near
climatology through the period, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

The large scale Srn stream pattern commences fairly progressive with
near zonal flow over Wrn states...weak trough over Cntrl states and
weak ridging over Ern states. On Friday...ridging moves offshore
leaving near zonal flow over SE region reflected in uni-directional
flow on model soundings. Flow shifts to weak WNW flow into Sat.  On
Sun into Mon...upstream amplified ridging builds Ewd into Gulf
region. At surface...ridge becomes established over Nrn Gulf
thru Fri night. Then...a low well to the north of CWFA
brings a trailing weak front to our area on Sat where it likely
stalls by Sat eve providing a small chance of convection. Sheared
out front then lifts back Nwd on Sun. This will place local area in
warm sector allowing for a weak seabreeze to develop Sat-Mon.
Next cold front moves into SE on Mon yielding a modest increase on
precipitation across mainly NW half of CWA on Mon. With local area
in warm sector...temperatures are expected to be slightly above
climo with inland highs in the low to mid 80s and under the sea
breeze influence...somewhat cooler at the coast.


.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north later today, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.


.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood
stage this morning, with several others in moderate flood stage.
Most area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The
exception is the Suwannee River which will rise slowly for the
remainder of the week. QPF amounts through tonight are expected to
be a third of an inch or less (mainly in Southeast AL and Southwest
GA), and should not have a major impact on river levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  60  83  58  84 /  20  20   0   0  10
Panama City   78  63  79  63  78 /  20  20   0   0  10
Dothan        81  59  83  58  84 /  40  50   0   0  10
Albany        83  58  83  56  84 /  40  50   0   0  10
Valdosta      82  59  84  59  85 /  20  20  10  10  10
Cross City    80  59  83  59  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  75  61  76  63  77 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...BLOCK/MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/FOURNIER








000
FXUS62 KTAE 220635
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The surface high slides east and the mid/upper level ridge flattens
as a low amplitude trough and associated cold front move into our
region by this evening. The deepest moisture and best lift with this
system will stay to our north. PoPs by afternoon will be tapered mid
range chance north to silent 10% for most of our coastal areas and
southeast Big Bend. Kept mention of isolated TSTMS. QPF amounts will
generally be under one-quarter of an inch. Max Temps will be in
lower 80s inland areas and mid to upper 70s along the coast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The 500 mb positive tilted trough (currently beginning to cross the
Southeast) will pass southeastward over our forecast area tonight,
but the accompanying weak cold front will stall across extreme North
FL and become oriented east to west. The forecast Q-vector and
omega fields are not that impressive, which may help explain why
neither the GFS or NAM MOS "likes" this system, and have PoPs of
only around 20%. However, our local Ensemble of Convection Allowing
Models (ECAM) forecasts good coverage of rain this evening across
South GA & AL, and its PoP is in the 50-80% range (but only 20%
around Tallahassee and Panama City). We blended the two sets of
differing guidance to come up with a PoP of around 50%. All of the
MOS and dynamical guidance forecast a strong weakening/drying trend
after midnight. Despite lack-luster synoptic scale forcing and
SBCAPE values of only around 1000 J/kg, a few thunderstorms are
possible- perhaps aided by fairly steep mid tropospheric lapse rates
of 6.5 deg/km. The lack of strong winds aloft, marginal CAPE, and
the rapid onset of nocturnal cooling all make severe thunderstorms
unlikely. Forecast updraft speeds are in the 10-15 m/s range, which
are usually not enough to support severe hail.

Despite the presence of a quasi-stationary front in extreme North FL
on Wednesday, the PoP will be 10% or less as the mid troposphere
warms and dries considerably. There may be a slight increase in deep
layer moisture on Thursday afternoon, and with the frontal system
still in the region, could lead to a shower or two. However, we`re
only carrying a 10% PoP for now. Temperatures will be near
climatology through the period, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

The large scale Srn stream pattern commences fairly progressive with
near zonal flow over Wrn states...weak trough over Cntrl states and
weak ridging over Ern states. On Friday...ridging moves offshore
leaving near zonal flow over SE region reflected in uni-directional
flow on model soundings. Flow shifts to weak WNW flow into Sat.  On
Sun into Mon...upstream amplified ridging builds Ewd into Gulf
region. At surface...ridge becomes established over Nrn Gulf
thru Fri night. Then...a low well to the north of CWFA
brings a trailing weak front to our area on Sat where it likely
stalls by Sat eve providing a small chance of convection. Sheared
out front then lifts back Nwd on Sun. This will place local area in
warm sector allowing for a weak seabreeze to develop Sat-Mon.
Next cold front moves into SE on Mon yielding a modest increase on
precipitation across mainly NW half of CWA on Mon. With local area
in warm sector...temperatures are expected to be slightly above
climo with inland highs in the low to mid 80s and under the sea
breeze influence...somewhat cooler at the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail but we do expect
brief periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys in the pre-dawn hours and shortly
thereafter as fog develops. A front approaching from the west will
cause ceilings to lower after 18Z but remain at VFR levels.
Afternoon thunderstorms around DHN and ABY may act to briefly lower
visibilities. Winds will be light from the west to southwest.

&&

.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north later today, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood
stage this morning, with several others in moderate flood stage.
Most area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The
exception is the Suwannee River which will rise slowly for the
remainder of the week. QPF amounts through tonight are expected to
be a third of an inch or less (mainly in Southeast AL and Southwest
GA), and should not have a major impact on river levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  60  83  58  84 /  20  20   0   0  10
Panama City   78  63  79  63  78 /  20  20   0   0  10
Dothan        81  59  83  58  84 /  40  50   0   0  10
Albany        83  58  83  56  84 /  40  50   0   0  10
Valdosta      82  59  84  59  85 /  20  20  10  10  10
Cross City    80  59  83  59  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  75  61  76  63  77 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/FOURNIER









000
FXUS62 KTAE 220019
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
819 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Quasi-zonal, fairly weak upper level flow is currently occurring
over most of the CONUS this evening.  However, an upper trough will
begin to develop and amplify overnight, with its axis stretching
from the Upper Midwest through the Southern Plains.  Just downstream
of this feature, a surface low will begin to deepen over the Great
Lakes, with a trailing cold front moving southeastward through the
Ohio Valley and southern Mississippi Valley regions.  This front
will not be close enough to our region through the rest of this
period to have any significant impacts, though, as high pressure
remains entrenched over the Southeast. As a result, dry conditions
with light to calm winds and fair skies with patchy cirrus will prevail
through the end of the period.

Radiational cooling will be efficient overnight, and enough low
level moisture will remain over southern and western counties for
the potential of some patchy fog development early Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures will likely range from lower-mid 50s in inland
areas to near 60 in coastal regions.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]  VFR conditions should prevail throughout
the period, although VLD may drop to MVFR briefly overnight.  A
front approaching from the west will cause ceilings to lower after
18Z. Afternoon thunderstorms around DHN and ABY may act to briefly
lower visibilities.

&&

.Prev Discussion [256 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Tuesday...The fairly progressive large scale mid/upper level
pattern starts the day marked by trough over Wrn most states...
ridge Ewd to Wrn Gulf states...and a weak positively tilted H5
shortwave trough over Ern states bringing increasing mid moisture.
At surface...low over PENN/Ontario border with weak back door cold
front Swwd thru MS/AL/LA to begin the day. By sundown...trough
axis has pivoted to Ern seaboard while cold front...absent upper
support...begins to weaken...slow down and then become quasi-stnry
lying more WSW to ENE along S/Cntrl AL/GA. The latest guidance
shows only marginal instability with weak lapse rates...meager
shear and forcing. However PWATS increase to around 1.4 inches NW
to 1.1. inches SE CWFA and there should be enough cape to support
at least isold Tstms south of front and over our CWFA in the aftn.
50-10% NW-SE POP gradient with highest POPs and QPF (AOB 0.16
inches) SE AL and adjacent SW GA. Highs in the low 80s.

Tuesday Night...The trough moves into the Atlc with upstream ridging
overspreading the Gulf region. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the front
stalling near the FL-GA border Tuesday night into Wednesday. With
loss of heating and exiting trough...POPs decrease to slight chance
possibility of Shwrs/isold Tstms. With winds remaining above calm...
this scenario will favor low clouds but some fog is likely and fog
and CAM/SREF guidance implies both ample low stratus and at least
patchy fog but will hold off on inserting into GRIDS that far out.
Expect mild temperatures...lows around 60.

Wednesday...Ridging with rising heights and subsidence builds in
to dominate local region. Front begins to wash out across or just
south of our Srn CWFA with decreasing cloud cover. Expect highs in
the low to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The large scale Srn stream pattern commences fairly progressive with
near zonal flow over Wrn states...weak trough over Cntrl states and
weak ridging over Ern states. On Friday...ridging moves offshore
leaving near zonal flow over SE region reflected in uni-directional
flow on model soundings. Flow shifts to weak WNW flow into Sat.  On
Sun into Mon...upstream amplified ridging builds Ewd into Gulf
region. At surface...ridge becomes established over Nrn Gulf
on Thurs thru Fri night. Then...a low well to the north of CWFA
brings a trailing weak front to our area on Sat where it likely
stalls by Sat eve providing a small chance of convection. Sheared
out front then lifts back Nwd on Sun. This will place local area in
warm sector allowing for a weak seabreeze to develop Sat-Mon.
Next cold front moves into SE on Mon yielding a modest increase on
precipitation across mainly NW half of CWA on Mon. With local area
in warm sector...temperatures are expected to be slightly above
climo with inland highs in the low to mid 80s and under the sea
breeze influence...somewhat cooler at the coast.


.Marine...

The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so
winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a
slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each
afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.


.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood
stage Tuesday morning with several others in moderate flood stage. Most
area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The exception
is the Suwannee River which will rise slowly for the remainder of
the week. QPF amounts for tomorrow are expected to be less than
0.25 inch and will not have major impacts on river levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  82  59  83  58 /   0  20  10  10   0
Panama City   59  76  62  79  62 /   0  20  10  10   0
Dothan        57  81  59  82  57 /   0  40  20  10   0
Albany        56  82  58  82  56 /   0  40  30   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  59  84  57 /   0  20  20  10   0
Cross City    54  81  57  83  58 /   0  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  58  75  62  77  62 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD/LAHR
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS/HELLER
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HOLLINGSWORTH
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 211856
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A weakening broad upper level trough will move from the lower
Mississippi Valley across the southeastern US tonight, with an
increase in mid and high level cloudiness. Overnight lows will be
seasonable with readings in the mid to upper 50s. With an increase
in clouds that will suppress radiational cooling, do not expect much
in the way of fog to develop. Any showers will hold off until later
in the day Tuesday.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Tuesday...The fairly progressive large scale mid/upper level
pattern starts the day marked by trough over Wrn most states...
ridge Ewd to Wrn Gulf states...and a weak positively tilted H5
shortwave trough over Ern states bringing increasing mid moisture.
At surface...low over PENN/Ontario border with weak back door cold
front Swwd thru MS/AL/LA to begin the day. By sundown...trough
axis has pivoted to Ern seaboard while cold front...absent upper
support...begins to weaken...slow down and then become quasi-stnry
lying more WSW to ENE along S/Cntrl AL/GA. The latest guidance
shows only marginal instability with weak lapse rates...meager
shear and forcing. However PWATS increase to around 1.4 inches NW
to 1.1. inches SE CWFA and there should be enough cape to support
at least isold Tstms south of front and over our CWFA in the aftn.
50-10% NW-SE POP gradient with highest POPs and QPF (AOB 0.16
inches) SE AL and adjacent SW GA. Highs in the low 80s.

Tuesday Night...The trough moves into the Atlc with upstream ridging
overspreading the Gulf region. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the front
stalling near the FL-GA border Tuesday night into Wednesday. With
loss of heating and exiting trough...POPs decrease to slight chance
possibility of Shwrs/isold Tstms. With winds remaining above calm...
this scenario will favor low clouds but some fog is likely and fog
and CAM/SREF guidance implies both ample low stratus and at least
patchy fog but will hold off on inserting into GRIDS that far out.
Expect mild temperatures...lows around 60.

Wednesday...Ridging with rising heights and subsidence builds in
to dominate local region. Front begins to wash out across or just
south of our Srn CWFA with decreasing cloud cover. Expect highs in
the low to mid 80s.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The large scale Srn stream pattern commences fairly progressive with
near zonal flow over Wrn states...weak trough over Cntrl states and
weak ridging over Ern states. On Friday...ridging moves offshore
leaving near zonal flow over SE region reflected in uni-directional
flow on model soundings. Flow shifts to weak WNW flow into Sat.  On
Sun into Mon...upstream amplified ridging builds Ewd into Gulf
region. At surface...ridge becomes established over Nrn Gulf
on Thurs thru Fri night. Then...a low well to the north of CWFA
brings a trailing weak front to our area on Sat where it likely
stalls by Sat eve providing a small chance of convection. Sheared
out front then lifts back Nwd on Sun. This will place local area in
warm sector allowing for a weak seabreeze to develop Sat-Mon.
Next cold front moves into SE on Mon yielding a modest increase on
precipitation across mainly NW half of CWA on Mon. With local area
in warm sector...temperatures are expected to be slightly above
climo with inland highs in the low to mid 80s and under the sea
breeze influence...somewhat cooler at the coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions with increasing high clouds
after 06Z. A weak front will approach the southeast on Tuesday with
a gradual lowering of ceilings after 18Z.

&&

.Marine...

The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so
winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a
slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each
afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood
stage Tuesday morning with several others in moderate flood stage. Most
area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The exception
is the Suwannee River which will rise slowly for the remainder of
the week. QPF amounts for tomorrow are expected to be less than
0.25 inch and will not have major impacts on river levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  82  59  83  58 /   0  20  10  10   0
Panama City   60  76  62  79  62 /   0  20  10  10   0
Dothan        58  81  59  82  57 /   0  40  20  10   0
Albany        57  82  58  82  56 /   0  40  30   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  59  84  57 /   0  20  20  10   0
Cross City    54  81  57  83  58 /   0  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  58  75  62  77  62 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...HOLLINGSWORTH
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HOLLINGSWORTH
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 210553
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
153 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

Deep layer ridging, dry conditions along with mostly sunny skies
will help temperatures return to around seasonal levels. Max temps
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 inland areas and lower to mid
70s along the coast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The positive-tilted 500 mb trough currently over the Central
Plains will translate eastward over the Southeast tonight and
Tuesday. The associated surface cold front appears quite weak in
the model solutions, and both the GFS and ECMWF show this front stalling
near the FL-GA border Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper
trough moves off to the east. The latest NWP guidance doesn`t show
very impressive omega fields with this system, and our PoP will
range from 20% in Tallahassee to 40% around Dothan and Albany
Tuesday afternoon. Although the large scale lifts doesn`t seem
that impressive, there may be enough SBCAPE to support at least a
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. However, any threat for a severe
storm appears low given the overall lack of vertical wind shear
and strong forcing. The highest QPF will likely be over our northern
zones, but QPF totals are currently only projected to be about
0.25 in or less. Temperatures will generally be slightly above
climatology.


.Long Term [Wednesday night Through Monday]...

The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level
cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will mostly be light and
offshore except becoming onshore at ECP this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...

The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so
winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a
slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each
afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our local rivers were above their normal stages, with
several in flood. Fortunately the next rain chance is unlikely to
cause significant rises, with QPF amounts generally less than 0.25
in. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce was near major flood stage. Other
points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  54  83  60  83 /   0   0  30  10  10
Panama City   77  59  76  63  79 /   0   0  20  10  10
Dothan        78  57  81  60  83 /   0   0  40  20  10
Albany        80  55  82  59  83 /   0   0  40  20   0
Valdosta      78  54  84  60  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    79  53  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  73  58  76  62  77 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON









000
FXUS62 KTAE 210114
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
It took most of the day, but the low clouds are finally making
progress out of the area, with only coastal areas of the Big Bend
still socked in. The clouds should continue to diminish overnight
as a ridge builds aloft and low pressure off the east coast moves
away. Main changes to forecast this evening were for cloud cover
and minor adjustments to overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday] Back edge of MVFR stratus deck continues to
move southward having passed the DHN/ABY terminals as of TAF
issuance. Expect clearing conditions at TLH/VLD/ECP by 02z-04z as
the cloud deck continues moving to the south. Surface winds
overnight in the 3 to 5 kt range should limit any fog development.
Expect VFR conditions throughout the day on Monday with only a few
high clouds in the afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [244 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near
climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in
South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the
northwest. Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much
weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts,
which is much more typical for April. Any threat of severe storms
with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak
winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on
Tuesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.


.Marine...
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next
week. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak
cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.


.Fire Weather...
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical
levels. It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday. Red
Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.


.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage
this evening. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. Rainfall with
Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0  20  10
Panama City   58  75  59  77  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        52  79  56  82  59 /   0   0   0  40  20
Albany        51  80  53  82  58 /   0   0   0  40  20
Valdosta      51  78  50  83  59 /   0   0   0  20  20
Cross City    53  79  52  82  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  57  73  57  77  62 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON









000
FXUS62 KTAE 201844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
This Afternoon...With low stratus holding firm...max temps will
have trouble making it to mid 60s. Updated GRIDS to lower this
aftn MAX temps and increase clouds.

Tonight...The mid/upper ridge over MS this eve will move east to
the AL/GA border by sunrise Monday. In response mid/upper low
will continue to slowly lift Newd farther off the SC coast. This
results in rising heights...increasing subsidence and mid/upper
gradually drying overspreading local region from W-E. At
surface...as nearly vertically stacked low lifts Newd...high
pressure ridge continues to ridge down Ern seaboard into Gulf
coast. The combination of this departing low and building ridge
will keep local gradients above normal. Overnight area soundings
show increasing NE flow surface-H8 then backing to NWLY above.
Locally this translates to overnight winds in the 5-10 mph range
highest Ern counties and with PWATS remaining around 0.7-0.8
inches...expect some lower ceilings to persist at least thru
midnight especially Ern GA counties (although thinner than earlier
today and with breaks). Clouds should increasingly scatter out
Wrn counties by midnight. With winds in the 5 to 10 mph range...fog
very unlikely. CAM/ Local confidence tool...Bufkit and SREF show
improving clouds conditions and lack of fog. Expect lows near 50
north to low 50s south.

&&

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near
climatology. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in
South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the
northwest. Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much
weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts,
which is much more typical for April. Any threat of severe storms
with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak
winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo values on
Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Low level cloudiness with MVFR CIGS will
gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE through the rest of
this afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure
system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away. By
midnight VFR should overspread entire area. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph
will persist overnight so neither fog nor AOB MVFR CIGS expected
although borderline MVFR CIGS may linger across N/E of VLD may
linger. After sunrise winds will become less than 10  MPH with VFR
conditions everywhere.

&&

.Marine...
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next
week. Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak
cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical
levels. It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday. Red
Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage
this evening. Other points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana. Rainfall with
Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   52  79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0  20  10
Panama City   56  75  59  77  63 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        52  79  56  82  59 /   0   0   0  40  20
Albany        50  80  53  82  58 /   0   0   0  40  20
Valdosta      50  78  50  83  59 /   0   0   0  20  20
Cross City    52  79  52  82  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  56  73  57  77  62 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON










000
FXUS62 KTAE 201535
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With stratus refusing to lift...updated 1st period GRIDS to
increase sky cover and tweak dwon expected Max temps..to low 70s
west to upper 60s east.

The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.

During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.


&&

.Prev Discussion [918 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.


.Marine...

Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.


.Hydrology...

The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  52  78  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   70  56  75  60  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        71  52  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0  40
Albany        69  50  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      69  50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    72  52  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  68  56  73  59  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON








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