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000
FXUS62 KTAE 130824
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 10 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a strong (but dry)
cold front translating southeastward across our forecast area, with
cooler, much drier air behind it. The coldest of the airmass will
remain well to our north, but our area will be under the influence
of cold air advection throughout the day. This will be partially
offset by ample insolation, and we expect high temperatures to be in
the lower 50s around Albany and Dothan, and mid 50s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure will build over the Central Appalachians tonight
with a cool and dry airmass in place. With the ridge center so far
to the north, winds are unlikely to go calm for most of the night,
except perhaps across our far northern counties. As a result, the
likelihood of freezing temperatures decreases considerably further
to the south across North Florida, with areas along and north of
I-10 standing the best chance of temperatures dropping to 32 or
colder for 2 or more hours.

The warmup will begin on Sunday as high pressure moves out into
the Western Atlantic and the low level flow picks up more of a
southerly component. Increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures
from warming much out of the lower 60s.

By Monday, a storm system will be approaching the region from the
west. Expect afternoon highs to warm into the upper 60s to near
70. Rain chances will begin to increase across our western areas
after 18z, but the bulk of the rain should hold off until after
00z Tuesday.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The models have had a tough time today maintaining consistency
with previous cycles. Three days ago, the Euro suggested Monday
night`s system would be significantly less energetic than the GFS
solution. In the last couple of cycles the Euro moved toward this
stronger GFS solution. Then with the 13/00z set this morning, all
of the guidance has trended weaker with this system - the GFS
considerably so. As a result, this decreases confidence in the
forecast and further decreases the likelihood of a severe weather
risk with this system across our forecast area. It still looks
reasonably certain that most of the area will get rain Monday
night, so will keep PoPs in the 70 percent range over the forecast
area.

The system should clear out quickly Tuesday morning with a dry
stretch of weather likely to continue through the remainder of the
period. A quick influx of drier and slightly cooler may arrive on
Thursday, but by Friday, ridging will be building across the Gulf
of Mexico, resulting in high temperatures Friday and Saturday
warming into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] A cold front was moving southeastward across
the region this late evening, causing winds to shift from W to
NW. Winds will be NW-N near 10 KT today, with mostly clear skies
and unrestricted Vis.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore winds behind the dry cold front will increase to advisory
levels this morning over the offshore waters before decreasing
late this afternoon. Moderate easterly flow is expected through
the remainder of the weekend. Winds and seas will increase on
Monday ahead of an approaching storm system. A period of advisory
conditions is possible Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Thereafter, light winds are expected as high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RH values will be below local critical thresholds for much of this
afternoon. However, ERC/fuel moisture values will likely remain
above critical levels, and 20 ft winds are likely to remain just
below 15 MPH. Thus we are not issuing a Red Flag Warning. A modest
increase in boundary layer moisture on Sunday will help keep RH
values a little above critical thresholds at most sites.

&&

.Hydrology...
The entire Choctawhatchee River is now below flood stage and
other area rivers outside the Suwannee River system are continuing
to drop. Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease and will
drop below 40 kcfs later today. As a result, the Apalachicola
River at Blountstown should drop below flood stage by Sunday
evening.

Rises will continue on the Suwannee into the latter part of next
week. Peak discharge from the Withlacoochee is now past Ellaville,
and peak flow from the Alapaha should arrive in the next 48 hours.
Downstream peak flow should stay in the 16-20 kcfs range,
suggesting that only the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs will
reach action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   57  32  61  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  40
Panama City   55  36  58  49  66 /   0   0   0   0  60
Dothan        52  29  57  42  65 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        52  27  57  42  66 /   0   0   0   0  40
Valdosta      55  30  61  44  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    60  32  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  36  58  50  66 /   0   0   0   0  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Brooks-
     Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Baker-
     Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Coffee-
     Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 130511
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1211 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Sunday] A cold front was moving southeastward across
the region this late evening, causing winds to shift from W to
NW. Winds will be NW-N near 10 KT today, with mostly clear skies
and unrestricted Vis.

&&

.Prev Discussion [858 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.


.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.


.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  31  61  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  40
Panama City   57  36  58  48  65 /   0   0  10  20  60
Dothan        53  30  58  42  64 /   0   0  10  20  60
Albany        53  26  55  40  66 /   0   0  10  10  40
Valdosta      56  32  61  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    61  33  64  45  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  59  36  59  48  65 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX





000
FXUS62 KTAE 130511
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1211 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Sunday] A cold front was moving southeastward across
the region this late evening, causing winds to shift from W to
NW. Winds will be NW-N near 10 KT today, with mostly clear skies
and unrestricted Vis.

&&

.Prev Discussion [858 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.


.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.


.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  31  61  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  40
Panama City   57  36  58  48  65 /   0   0  10  20  60
Dothan        53  30  58  42  64 /   0   0  10  20  60
Albany        53  26  55  40  66 /   0   0  10  10  40
Valdosta      56  32  61  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    61  33  64  45  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  59  36  59  48  65 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX





000
FXUS62 KTAE 130158
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
858 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Update...

No updates were necessary to this afternoon`s forecast for
overnight. Previous discussions are below.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Winds will
continue from the NW Saturday 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [441 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.


.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.


.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  58  31  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   46  57  36  58  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        38  53  30  58  42 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        38  53  26  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      43  56  32  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    44  61  33  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  48  59  36  59  48 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX





000
FXUS62 KTAE 122141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
cycle. Breezy SW-W winds 10 to 15 KTS with gusts close to 30 KTS
will become NW 10 KTS or less this evening. Winds will continue from
the NW Saturday 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  58  31  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   46  57  36  58  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        38  53  30  58  42 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        38  53  26  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      43  56  32  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    44  61  33  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  48  59  36  59  48 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX





000
FXUS62 KTAE 122141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
cycle. Breezy SW-W winds 10 to 15 KTS with gusts close to 30 KTS
will become NW 10 KTS or less this evening. Winds will continue from
the NW Saturday 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  58  31  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   46  57  36  58  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        38  53  30  58  42 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        38  53  26  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      43  56  32  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    44  61  33  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  48  59  36  59  48 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX





000
FXUS62 KTAE 122141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
cycle. Breezy SW-W winds 10 to 15 KTS with gusts close to 30 KTS
will become NW 10 KTS or less this evening. Winds will continue from
the NW Saturday 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  58  31  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   46  57  36  58  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        38  53  30  58  42 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        38  53  26  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      43  56  32  61  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    44  61  33  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  48  59  36  59  48 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX




000
FXUS62 KTAE 121744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] Occasional MVFR cigs at DHN and ABY
through the remainder of the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the TAF cycle. Breezy SW-W winds 10 to 15 KTS with gusts
close to 30 KTS will become NW 10 KTS or less this evening. Winds
will continue from the NW Saturday 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [1050 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The latest regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from near Savannah westward through east Texas. This
boundary will get nudged further to the south today as the upper
trough along the east coast continues to amplify. The shortwave
embedded in the northwest flow will stay well to our north and
then move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight with no impact
locally other than increasing cloud cover for our northernmost
zones. High temperatures will be above average, in the lower to
mid 70s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  59  32  62  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   46  57  37  58  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        38  54  29  57  40 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        38  54  29  56  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      43  57  32  60  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    44  63  32  65  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  48  59  38  58  49 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 121550
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1050 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The latest regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from near Savannah westward through east Texas. This
boundary will get nudged further to the south today as the upper
trough along the east coast continues to amplify. The shortwave
embedded in the northwst flow will stay well to our north and then
move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight with no impact locally
other than increasing cloud cover for our northernmost zones. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.Prev Discussion [1045 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] IFR-MVFR cigs across much of south GA,
south AL, and NW FL will gradually become scattered from mid to
late morning. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
onward. SW-W winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by
late morning, and will become NW 5 to 10 KT this evening.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 121545
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The latest regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from near Savannah westward through east TX. this boundary
will get nudged further to the south today as the upper trough
along the east coast continues to amplify. The shortwave embedded
in the northwst flow will stay wel to our north and then move off
the southeast U.S. coast tonight.


 High temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] IFR-MVFR cigs across much of south GA,
south AL, and NW FL will gradually become scattered from mid to
late morning. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
onward. SW-W winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by
late morning, and will become NW 5 to 10 KT this evening.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 121120
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] IFR-MVFR cigs across much of south GA,
south AL, and NW FL will gradually become scattered from mid to
late morning. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
onward. SW-W winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by
late morning, and will become NW 5 to 10 KT this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [337 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 121120
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] IFR-MVFR cigs across much of south GA,
south AL, and NW FL will gradually become scattered from mid to
late morning. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
onward. SW-W winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by
late morning, and will become NW 5 to 10 KT this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [337 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 121120
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] IFR-MVFR cigs across much of south GA,
south AL, and NW FL will gradually become scattered from mid to
late morning. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
onward. SW-W winds 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by
late morning, and will become NW 5 to 10 KT this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [337 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.


.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.


.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120837
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi-stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at KDHN,
KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late morning. W-SW
winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by late
morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside during the
evening.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120837
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi-stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at KDHN,
KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late morning. W-SW
winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by late
morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside during the
evening.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120837
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi-stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at KDHN,
KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late morning. W-SW
winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by late
morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside during the
evening.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 120525
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1225 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi- stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at
KDHN, KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late
morning. W-SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will
develop by late morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside
during the evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [919 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.


.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  48  56  35  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  40  52  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        70  40  53  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      74  44  56  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  48  62  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  49  59  37  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120219
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the first half of the night. After that, some patchy fog is
possible across the area with the greatest chance expected at
ABY. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [358 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.


.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/CHANEY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120219
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the first half of the night. After that, some patchy fog is
possible across the area with the greatest chance expected at
ABY. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [358 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.


.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/CHANEY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 120219
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the first half of the night. After that, some patchy fog is
possible across the area with the greatest chance expected at
ABY. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [358 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.


.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/CHANEY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 112058
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR CIGS toward daybreak, mainly at ABY,
DHN and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds
will become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 112058
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR CIGS toward daybreak, mainly at ABY,
DHN and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds
will become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 112058
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR CIGS toward daybreak, mainly at ABY,
DHN and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds
will become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  45  58  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  48  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  40  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  40  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  44  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  48  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  49  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 111744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday]...VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR cigs toward daybreak, mainly at ABY, DHN
and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [944 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate
the area. After a cool start this morning, high temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what
many places recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  46  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  50  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  42  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  41  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  45  59  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  49  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  51  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 111744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday]...VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR cigs toward daybreak, mainly at ABY, DHN
and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [944 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate
the area. After a cool start this morning, high temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what
many places recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  46  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  50  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  42  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  41  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  45  59  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  49  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  51  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 111744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday]...VFR conditions at least well into the early
morning hours. After that, we will see mostly MVFR vsbys due to
fog and possibly MVFR/IFR cigs toward daybreak, mainly at ABY, DHN
and VLD. VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise. Winds will
become breezy from the west to southwest Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [944 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate
the area. After a cool start this morning, high temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what
many places recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  74  46  61  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  66  50  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  70  42  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        46  70  41  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  74  45  59  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  74  49  65  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  68  51  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 111444
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
944 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate
the area. After a cool start this morning, high temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what
many places recorded yesterday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail initially today with clear skies.
Late tonight, lower clouds are expected to move into the area with
scattered to broken clouds. In addition some fog is possible.
Right now though there is a good bit of spread between the models
on just how low the cigs and vsbys will be. For now have trended
more on the optimistic side, mainly MVFR range.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 111111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail initially today with clear skies.
Late tonight, lower clouds are expected to move into the area with
scattered to broken clouds. In addition some fog is possible.
Right now though there is a good bit of spread between the models
on just how low the cigs and vsbys will be. For now have trended
more on the optimistic side, mainly MVFR range.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 111111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail initially today with clear skies.
Late tonight, lower clouds are expected to move into the area with
scattered to broken clouds. In addition some fog is possible.
Right now though there is a good bit of spread between the models
on just how low the cigs and vsbys will be. For now have trended
more on the optimistic side, mainly MVFR range.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 111111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail initially today with clear skies.
Late tonight, lower clouds are expected to move into the area with
scattered to broken clouds. In addition some fog is possible.
Right now though there is a good bit of spread between the models
on just how low the cigs and vsbys will be. For now have trended
more on the optimistic side, mainly MVFR range.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 110851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Skies will be clear today, but few to scattered clouds
around 3-5kft are expected to move into the northern sites this
evening.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 110851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Skies will be clear today, but few to scattered clouds
around 3-5kft are expected to move into the northern sites this
evening.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 110851
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Skies will be clear today, but few to scattered clouds
around 3-5kft are expected to move into the northern sites this
evening.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 110521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies will be
clear today, but few to scattered clouds around 3-5kft are
expected to move into the northern sites this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [916 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like TLH should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday Night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.


.Marine...

Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00Z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach SCEC
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Friday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  49  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   65  56  65  50  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        65  46  67  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      64  47  73  45  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Cross City    63  48  72  48  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  64  55  68  51  61 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Thursday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 110521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies will be
clear today, but few to scattered clouds around 3-5kft are
expected to move into the northern sites this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [916 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like TLH should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday Night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.


.Marine...

Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00Z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach SCEC
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Friday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  49  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   65  56  65  50  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        65  46  67  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      64  47  73  45  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Cross City    63  48  72  48  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  64  55  68  51  61 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Thursday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 110521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1221 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies will be
clear today, but few to scattered clouds around 3-5kft are
expected to move into the northern sites this evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [916 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like TLH should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday Night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.


.Marine...

Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00Z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach SCEC
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Friday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  49  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   65  56  65  50  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        65  46  67  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      64  47  73  45  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Cross City    63  48  72  48  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  64  55  68  51  61 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Thursday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 110216
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Update...

No significant changes were made to the afternoon forecast for
tonight. Previous discussions are below.

&&

.Prev Discussion [348 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like TLH should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday Night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.


.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will diminish rapidly around sunset.


.Marine...

Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00Z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach SCEC
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Friday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   29  67  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   41  65  56  65  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        32  65  46  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        29  63  43  69  41 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      30  64  47  73  45 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    27  63  48  72  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  37  64  55  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Thursday FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Thursday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Thursday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 102048
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A very dry airmass will remain in place tonight with clear skies
and light winds expected. This is a good recipe for radiational
cooling conditions, and with very low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will likely drop quickly after sunset tonight. The
official forecast leaned on the cooler end of the guidance given
the seemingly favorable setup. This is expected to result in
another light freeze for most areas with the exception of the
panhandle coast. Towards the end of the night, dewpoints are
expected to start to increase slightly, and as a result
widespread frost is also expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The region will remain under deep west-northwesterly flow on the
southwestern flank of a broad trough, and a warm air advection
pattern. The result will be mostly clear skies and gradually
warming temperatures. By Friday, it looks like TLH should record
its first day with an above-normal average temperature in about a
week with highs in the low-mid 70s in many locations. A dry cold
front should push through the area Friday Night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry weekend with slightly below normal temperatures will be
followed by increasing rain chances early next week as a
developing cyclone moves across the interior south. Temperatures
should return to near or slightly above normal levels on Monday
and Tuesday before another cold front arrives.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will diminish rapidly around sunset.

&&

.Marine...

Although winds and seas continue to diminish across the marine
forecast area, both offshore buoys are reporting seas around 7-8
feet, so the Small Craft Advisory was maintained through 00Z.
After that point, winds and seas should have diminished
sufficiently to allow the advisory to expire. Winds will quickly
veer to the southwest by tomorrow, and could even reach SCEC
headline criteria by tomorrow afternoon to the west of
Apalachicola. Occasional periods of breezy winds look to continue
for much of the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week with
no fire weather concerns other than high dispersion values on
Friday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today.
Bruce will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate
flood stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest
there now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   27  67  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   39  65  56  65  50 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        28  65  46  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        27  63  43  69  41 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      26  64  47  73  45 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    27  63  48  72  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  37  64  55  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 AM EST
     /8 AM CST/ Thursday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening
     FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday FOR
     all zones.

AL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Thursday FOR
     all zones.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 101418
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast for
today. High pressure will build in at the surface today with WNW
winds aloft. The area will remain dry through the near term. Winds
will be a little gusty at times today but not as windy as the
previous two days. Highs will remain on the cooler side today will
the upper 40s to lower 50s across Georgia and Alabama to the low
to mid 50s across Florida. For Tallahassee, this will be more than
10 degrees below normal.

&&

.Prev Discussion [622 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Another night of clear and chilly conditions are expected across
the region tonight. The big question though is how low
temperatures will go. Forecast dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon
show us dropping into the low teens, and with surface high
pressure nearly overhead by sunset, expect temperatures to plummet
quickly after sunset with the calm winds. Ordinarily, this pattern
would suggest a hard freeze, given the chilly and dry airmass and
calm winds. However, model guidance isn`t going especially cold,
likely due in part to some weak moisture return as the surface
high slides east of the region by sunrise. While it`s possible
that some areas could see low temperatures on Thursday morning
around 25 degrees, confidence in duration or location is not high
enough to justify a hard freeze watch at this time, thus a only a
freeze watch was issued.

The short term warming trend will kick off on Thursday and
continue into Friday as southerly flow becomes more established
ahead of the next dry cold front that will approach the region
late on Friday. High temperatures on Thursday will return to the
mid 60s and even into the lower 70s by Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
After a dry cold front passes through the region late Friday,
drier and somewhat cooler air will return for the weekend as an
area of high pressure becomes established across the Eastern
Carolina coast. Model guidance is in good agreement that dry
conditions through the weekend will give way to increasing rain
chances by Monday afternoon as the next storm system approaches
the region. Both the GFS and Euro show this system being fairly
progressive, so rain chances should be maximized to a 12-24 hour
period from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, if not even
a little shorter. This system should have only a little cooler
weather behind it, so temperatures will be on the increase on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. WNW to NW
winds will increase this morning with speeds of 10-15kts and gusts
to 22kts.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure
moves nearer to the marine area. The small craft advisory
continues through late this afternoon. High pressure will remain
over or near the marine area through Friday before a dry cold
front moves through the waters, resulting in an increase in
offshore winds to near cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag warning criteria across Florida is very borderline for
today. While it will be dry today and RH clearly meets criteria,
winds fall around 1-2 mph short of criteria. A few places are
meeting the ERC criteria, but with the winds falling just short,
will not issue a red flag warning for Florida for today. If winds
trend stronger than expected though, red flag criteria would be
met in some areas.

Fuels are dry across Georgia and Alabama and thus despite the dry
conditions and marginal winds, red flag warning criteria will not
be met.

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week and
thus no fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday.


.Hydrology...
Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today. Bruce
will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate flood
stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest there
now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  27  65  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   53  36  64  55  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  28  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  26  62  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      52  27  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    55  27  62  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  54  35  63  55  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 101122
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. WNW to NW
winds will increase this morning with speeds of 10-15kts and gusts
to 22kts.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
High pressure will build in at the surface today with WNW winds
aloft. The area will remain dry through the near term.

Freezing temperatures are in place across much of the area this
morning with a Freeze Warning in effect. Highs will remain on the
cooler side today will the upper 40s to lower 50s across Georgia and
Alabama to the low to mid 50s across Florida. For Tallahassee, this
will be more than 10 degrees below normal.

Winds will be elevated today but not to the extent of wind advisory
criteria. Initially this morning, this could lead to an hour or two
of 20 degree wind chills across parts of Alabama and the northern
portion of SW Georgia, however the area is too localized for a Wind
Chill Advisory.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Another night of clear and chilly conditions are expected across
the region tonight. The big question though is how low
temperatures will go. Forecast dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon
show us dropping into the low teens, and with surface high
pressure nearly overhead by sunset, expect temperatures to plummet
quickly after sunset with the calm winds. Ordinarily, this pattern
would suggest a hard freeze, given the chilly and dry airmass and
calm winds. However, model guidance isn`t going especially cold,
likely due in part to some weak moisture return as the surface
high slides east of the region by sunrise. While it`s possible
that some areas could see low temperatures on Thursday morning
around 25 degrees, confidence in duration or location is not high
enough to justify a hard freeze watch at this time, thus a only a
freeze watch was issued.

The short term warming trend will kick off on Thursday and
continue into Friday as southerly flow becomes more established
ahead of the next dry cold front that will approach the region
late on Friday. High temperatures on Thursday will return to the
mid 60s and even into the lower 70s by Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
After a dry cold front passes through the region late Friday,
drier and somewhat cooler air will return for the weekend as an
area of high pressure becomes established across the Eastern
Carolina coast. Model guidance is in good agreement that dry
conditions through the weekend will give way to increasing rain
chances by Monday afternoon as the next storm system approaches
the region. Both the GFS and Euro show this system being fairly
progressive, so rain chances should be maximized to a 12-24 hour
period from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, if not even
a little shorter. This system should have only a little cooler
weather behind it, so temperatures will be on the increase on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure
moves nearer to the marine area. The small craft advisory
continues through late this afternoon. High pressure will remain
over or near the marine area through Friday before a dry cold
front moves through the waters, resulting in an increase in
offshore winds to near cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag warning criteria across Florida is very borderline for
today. While it will be dry today and RH clearly meets criteria,
winds fall around 1-2 mph short of criteria. A few places are
meeting the ERC criteria, but with the winds falling just short,
will not issue a red flag warning for Florida for today. If winds
trend stronger than expected though, red flag criteria would be
met in some areas.

Fuels are dry across Georgia and Alabama and thus despite the dry
conditions and marginal winds, red flag warning criteria will not
be met.

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week and
thus no fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday.


.Hydrology...
Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today. Bruce
will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate flood
stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest there
now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  27  65  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   53  36  64  55  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  28  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  26  62  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      52  27  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    55  27  62  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  54  35  63  55  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





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