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000
FXUS62 KTAE 200715
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Absent of any synoptic scale forcing for ascent, expect a scattering
of showers to be forced in a convergent northeasterly flow regime.
Expect the showers to primarily be confined along and east of a line
from Albany to Tallahassee. In this area, the northeasterly
trajectories originate from the western Atlantic, bringing with them
the greatest low-level moisture. The combination of showers, and a
rather solid stratus deck should keep high temperatures in the
aforementioned region in the lower 80s. Further west, middle to
upper 80s should be expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger into the
evening hours tonight over the SE 1/2 of the CWA before clearing
skies, along with cooler and drier air move in from the NW
overnight. Before sunrise, low temperatures are expected to drop
into the seasonably cool lower to middle 60s to the N, and middle to
upper 60s to the S. A very warm and dry day is in store for Sunday,
with highs around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. This
will be followed by a similarly cool and dry period on Sunday night,
with a slightly hotter and more humid day on Monday, which will also
feature 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the NW 2/3
of the interior during the afternoon as the next cold front
approaches from the NW. Lows on Sunday night will be in the middle
60s across much of the interior with upper 60s near the coast, and
highs on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...

Expect a fairly solid stratus deck to develop overnight, primarily
affecting ABY, TLH, and VLD. The low clouds will be slow to lift and
scatter to VFR levels. All sites should be VFR by mid-afternoon with
a slight chance for a passing shower at TLH and ABY, and a greater
chance a VLD.

&&

.Marine...

The strong easterly winds which developed over the coastal waters
on Friday have gradually weakened overnight, and the Small Craft
Advisory over the offshore legs will now expire at 4 AM EDT this
morning. However, the cautionary conditions will continue over the
entire marine area through the morning hours, with winds and seas
diminishing by this afternoon. Thereafter, light winds and low
seas should return for the remainder of the weekend and Monday of
next week, before increasing once again later on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in to the
northeast of the region behind a cold front.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over
the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region
over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our
area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  67  90  65  92 /  40  20   0   0  10
Panama City   86  71  87  72  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        84  65  90  65  90 /  20  10   0   0  30
Albany        83  64  90  65  91 /  40  10   0   0  30
Valdosta      82  65  90  64  92 /  60  20  10   0  10
Cross City    84  65  88  67  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  84  72  85  72  87 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 200715
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Absent of any synoptic scale forcing for ascent, expect a scattering
of showers to be forced in a convergent northeasterly flow regime.
Expect the showers to primarily be confined along and east of a line
from Albany to Tallahassee. In this area, the northeasterly
trajectories originate from the western Atlantic, bringing with them
the greatest low-level moisture. The combination of showers, and a
rather solid stratus deck should keep high temperatures in the
aforementioned region in the lower 80s. Further west, middle to
upper 80s should be expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger into the
evening hours tonight over the SE 1/2 of the CWA before clearing
skies, along with cooler and drier air move in from the NW
overnight. Before sunrise, low temperatures are expected to drop
into the seasonably cool lower to middle 60s to the N, and middle to
upper 60s to the S. A very warm and dry day is in store for Sunday,
with highs around 90 degrees away from the immediate coast. This
will be followed by a similarly cool and dry period on Sunday night,
with a slightly hotter and more humid day on Monday, which will also
feature 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms over the NW 2/3
of the interior during the afternoon as the next cold front
approaches from the NW. Lows on Sunday night will be in the middle
60s across much of the interior with upper 60s near the coast, and
highs on Monday will generally be in the lower 90s.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...

Expect a fairly solid stratus deck to develop overnight, primarily
affecting ABY, TLH, and VLD. The low clouds will be slow to lift and
scatter to VFR levels. All sites should be VFR by mid-afternoon with
a slight chance for a passing shower at TLH and ABY, and a greater
chance a VLD.

&&

.Marine...

The strong easterly winds which developed over the coastal waters
on Friday have gradually weakened overnight, and the Small Craft
Advisory over the offshore legs will now expire at 4 AM EDT this
morning. However, the cautionary conditions will continue over the
entire marine area through the morning hours, with winds and seas
diminishing by this afternoon. Thereafter, light winds and low
seas should return for the remainder of the weekend and Monday of
next week, before increasing once again later on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in to the
northeast of the region behind a cold front.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds over
the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air. Thus,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region
over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our
area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  67  90  65  92 /  40  20   0   0  10
Panama City   86  71  87  72  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
Dothan        84  65  90  65  90 /  20  10   0   0  30
Albany        83  64  90  65  91 /  40  10   0   0  30
Valdosta      82  65  90  64  92 /  60  20  10   0  10
Cross City    84  65  88  67  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  84  72  85  72  87 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 200042
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
There are still some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area, but these are expected to diminish by around midnight.
Some low clouds are likely to develop across the area around dawn.
Lows will be mostly in the upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] Most terminals (except ECP) will see low cigs
tonight due to abundant low level moisture. VLD is forecast to
reach IFR tomorrow morning from 06-15Z, with low cigs and MVFR
persisting until 18Z. ABY, TLH, and DHN should get down to MVFR
from 09Z-15Z but there is a small chance ABY/TLH could see IFR.
ECP should remain VFR through the night. All terminals, except
VLD, should be VFR by 15-16Z. VCSH is possible tomorrow at TLH,
ABY, VLD from 19Z-00Z.

&&

.Marine...
Strong easterly winds will continue to the north of a weak area of
low pressure in the eastern Gulf through tonight. For the offshore
waters, these winds are in the 20 to 25 knot range at times, and
the nearshore areas will likely see winds closer to 15 knots.
These winds are expected to subside on Saturday morning. A period
of light winds and relatively calm seas will follow until another
front pushes through the coastal waters on Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [428 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The aforementioned digging shortwave trough will likely close off
as a mid-upper level low briefly on Saturday near the NE Florida
or Georgia coastline, before ejecting northeast as another,
stronger digging trough pushes into the Northeast US from late
Saturday and into Sunday. The result will be slowly rising mid-
upper level heights across our forecast area, with a weak surface
pressure pattern or small bubble high. For Saturday, much of our
forecast area will be in an area of relatively strong QG
divergence to the west of the trough axis / mid-upper level low.
Although that would suggest more limited rain coverage, we will
remain in a region of fairly strong, 10-20 knot ENE boundary layer
flow, which is a pattern that tends to favor convection arriving
late in the afternoon from the east. Convection-allowing models do
show that, mainly in the form of rain showers, and so we included
rain chances over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
for the period from 20Z to 02Z. We are mostly anticipating low-
topped rain showers, although a few thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs should range from the mid-80s west, to the low 80s
east where there should be greater cloud cover.

As the mid-upper level shortwave trough and accompanying surface
low along the Atlantic coast eject northeast, quieter and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. With sunny skies, a return to the
upper 80s for high temperatures is likely.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  84  68  88  66 /  40  30  30  10  10
Panama City   72  87  71  88  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
Dothan        67  85  66  88  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        68  84  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      67  83  65  88  64 /  30  50  30  10  10
Cross City    67  85  66  88  66 /  40  40  30  20  10
Apalachicola  73  84  71  86  71 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DOBBS/DVD
MARINE...DVD/LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 200042
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
There are still some scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area, but these are expected to diminish by around midnight.
Some low clouds are likely to develop across the area around dawn.
Lows will be mostly in the upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] Most terminals (except ECP) will see low cigs
tonight due to abundant low level moisture. VLD is forecast to
reach IFR tomorrow morning from 06-15Z, with low cigs and MVFR
persisting until 18Z. ABY, TLH, and DHN should get down to MVFR
from 09Z-15Z but there is a small chance ABY/TLH could see IFR.
ECP should remain VFR through the night. All terminals, except
VLD, should be VFR by 15-16Z. VCSH is possible tomorrow at TLH,
ABY, VLD from 19Z-00Z.

&&

.Marine...
Strong easterly winds will continue to the north of a weak area of
low pressure in the eastern Gulf through tonight. For the offshore
waters, these winds are in the 20 to 25 knot range at times, and
the nearshore areas will likely see winds closer to 15 knots.
These winds are expected to subside on Saturday morning. A period
of light winds and relatively calm seas will follow until another
front pushes through the coastal waters on Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [428 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The aforementioned digging shortwave trough will likely close off
as a mid-upper level low briefly on Saturday near the NE Florida
or Georgia coastline, before ejecting northeast as another,
stronger digging trough pushes into the Northeast US from late
Saturday and into Sunday. The result will be slowly rising mid-
upper level heights across our forecast area, with a weak surface
pressure pattern or small bubble high. For Saturday, much of our
forecast area will be in an area of relatively strong QG
divergence to the west of the trough axis / mid-upper level low.
Although that would suggest more limited rain coverage, we will
remain in a region of fairly strong, 10-20 knot ENE boundary layer
flow, which is a pattern that tends to favor convection arriving
late in the afternoon from the east. Convection-allowing models do
show that, mainly in the form of rain showers, and so we included
rain chances over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
for the period from 20Z to 02Z. We are mostly anticipating low-
topped rain showers, although a few thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs should range from the mid-80s west, to the low 80s
east where there should be greater cloud cover.

As the mid-upper level shortwave trough and accompanying surface
low along the Atlantic coast eject northeast, quieter and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. With sunny skies, a return to the
upper 80s for high temperatures is likely.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  84  68  88  66 /  40  30  30  10  10
Panama City   72  87  71  88  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
Dothan        67  85  66  88  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        68  84  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      67  83  65  88  64 /  30  50  30  10  10
Cross City    67  85  66  88  66 /  40  40  30  20  10
Apalachicola  73  84  71  86  71 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DOBBS/DVD
MARINE...DVD/LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 192028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave
trough over the Southeast, with its axis across our forecast
area. Fairly strong Q-G forcing near and east of this trough,
along with sufficient deep layer moisture and marginal
instability, were helping to generate scattered showers &
thunderstorms across GA and north FL. The large area of mostly
light rain over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has persisted into
this afternoon. The showers and storms over land will gradually
dissipate by midnight, but low clouds will develop across much of
the region by dawn. Lows will be in the upper 60s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The aforementioned digging shortwave trough will likely close off
as a mid-upper level low briefly on Saturday near the NE Florida
or Georgia coastline, before ejecting northeast as another,
stronger digging trough pushes into the Northeast US from late
Saturday and into Sunday. The result will be slowly rising mid-
upper level heights across our forecast area, with a weak surface
pressure pattern or small bubble high. For Saturday, much of our
forecast area will be in an area of relatively strong QG
divergence to the west of the trough axis / mid-upper level low.
Although that would suggest more limited rain coverage, we will
remain in a region of fairly strong, 10-20 knot ENE boundary layer
flow, which is a pattern that tends to favor convection arriving
late in the afternoon from the east. Convection-allowing models do
show that, mainly in the form of rain showers, and so we included
rain chances over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
for the period from 20Z to 02Z. We are mostly anticipating low-
topped rain showers, although a few thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs should range from the mid-80s west, to the low 80s
east where there should be greater cloud cover.

As the mid-upper level shortwave trough and accompanying surface
low along the Atlantic coast eject northeast, quieter and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. With sunny skies, a return to the
upper 80s for high temperatures is likely.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Saturday] Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will develop
this afternoon & evening, with the highest PoP around KABY &
KVLD. Brief periods of MVFR VIS/CIGS are possible with the
showers; otherwise VFR conditions are expected. MVFR to IFR CIGS
are likely to develop overnight and early Saturday, with the
lowest CIGS expected at KVLD. These CIGS will be slow to lift
Saturday morning.

&&

.Marine...

An area of surface low pressure over the east-central Gulf is
contributing to strong easterly winds at this time over much of
the central and eastern Gulf coastal waters. The offshore buoys
recently observed 20+ knot sustained winds, and this is most
consistent with high-resolution model guidance thus far. Those
high-res models indicate that 20-25 knot winds will become more
established through the late afternoon and evening in our offshore
waters. For now, we have issued a Small Craft Advisory beyond 20
NM from shore until 14Z, with a SCEC headline in nearshore waters.
However, given that the better verifying models at this time show
the possibility of 20 knot winds within 20 NM of shore later
tonight, this will have to be monitored closely for a possible
expansion of the advisory. Winds and seas should diminish
tomorrow. Another front will arrive on Tuesday with a subsequent
increase in E/NE winds again.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  84  68  88  66 /  40  30  30  10  10
Panama City   72  87  71  88  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
Dothan        67  85  66  88  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        68  84  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      67  83  65  88  64 /  30  50  30  10  10
Cross City    67  85  66  88  66 /  40  40  30  20  10
Apalachicola  73  84  71  86  71 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 192028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave
trough over the Southeast, with its axis across our forecast
area. Fairly strong Q-G forcing near and east of this trough,
along with sufficient deep layer moisture and marginal
instability, were helping to generate scattered showers &
thunderstorms across GA and north FL. The large area of mostly
light rain over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has persisted into
this afternoon. The showers and storms over land will gradually
dissipate by midnight, but low clouds will develop across much of
the region by dawn. Lows will be in the upper 60s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The aforementioned digging shortwave trough will likely close off
as a mid-upper level low briefly on Saturday near the NE Florida
or Georgia coastline, before ejecting northeast as another,
stronger digging trough pushes into the Northeast US from late
Saturday and into Sunday. The result will be slowly rising mid-
upper level heights across our forecast area, with a weak surface
pressure pattern or small bubble high. For Saturday, much of our
forecast area will be in an area of relatively strong QG
divergence to the west of the trough axis / mid-upper level low.
Although that would suggest more limited rain coverage, we will
remain in a region of fairly strong, 10-20 knot ENE boundary layer
flow, which is a pattern that tends to favor convection arriving
late in the afternoon from the east. Convection-allowing models do
show that, mainly in the form of rain showers, and so we included
rain chances over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
for the period from 20Z to 02Z. We are mostly anticipating low-
topped rain showers, although a few thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs should range from the mid-80s west, to the low 80s
east where there should be greater cloud cover.

As the mid-upper level shortwave trough and accompanying surface
low along the Atlantic coast eject northeast, quieter and dry
weather is expected on Sunday. With sunny skies, a return to the
upper 80s for high temperatures is likely.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for next
week from our forecast yesterday. There is still some run-to-run
model inconsistency with the upper level flow pattern over the
CONUS, but models largely agree on an extended period of low-level
easterly flow for our area. There is likely to be a surface high
centered over or near the Northeast US, and we will be on the
southern periphery of the surface ridge. Therefore, some small
rain chances are likely to persist through the week, with
temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Saturday] Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will develop
this afternoon & evening, with the highest PoP around KABY &
KVLD. Brief periods of MVFR VIS/CIGS are possible with the
showers; otherwise VFR conditions are expected. MVFR to IFR CIGS
are likely to develop overnight and early Saturday, with the
lowest CIGS expected at KVLD. These CIGS will be slow to lift
Saturday morning.

&&

.Marine...

An area of surface low pressure over the east-central Gulf is
contributing to strong easterly winds at this time over much of
the central and eastern Gulf coastal waters. The offshore buoys
recently observed 20+ knot sustained winds, and this is most
consistent with high-resolution model guidance thus far. Those
high-res models indicate that 20-25 knot winds will become more
established through the late afternoon and evening in our offshore
waters. For now, we have issued a Small Craft Advisory beyond 20
NM from shore until 14Z, with a SCEC headline in nearshore waters.
However, given that the better verifying models at this time show
the possibility of 20 knot winds within 20 NM of shore later
tonight, this will have to be monitored closely for a possible
expansion of the advisory. Winds and seas should diminish
tomorrow. Another front will arrive on Tuesday with a subsequent
increase in E/NE winds again.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  84  68  88  66 /  40  30  30  10  10
Panama City   72  87  71  88  71 /  30  20  20  10  10
Dothan        67  85  66  88  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        68  84  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      67  83  65  88  64 /  30  50  30  10  10
Cross City    67  85  66  88  66 /  40  40  30  20  10
Apalachicola  73  84  71  86  71 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 191418
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined,
quasi-stationary front near the FL Panhandle coast and across
north FL, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast.
There was a lot of rain (in terms of area coverage) across our
Gulf coastal waters, but mainly just sprinkles inland. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave trough
over our forecast area. There was ample moisture above 700 mb but
the lower troposphere was relatively dry. Most of the rain will
continue to remain offshore until this afternoon, when Q-G
forcing, mesoscale boundary interactions, and insolation will
combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms- mainly in
north FL and south central GA (where our highest PoP is 40%).
There is some question regarding the amount of insolation we will
actually get this afternoon, and we adjusted our high temperature
forecast downward a bit (in line with the latest RAP) to account
for the rather thick clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon & evening.

&&

.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   87  68  86  67  89 /  30  50  20  10  10
Panama City   86  71  86  71  88 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        89  67  83  66  89 /  30  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      85  66  84  65  88 /  40  40  40  10  10
Cross City    84  66  86  65  88 /  40  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  84  72  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 191418
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined,
quasi-stationary front near the FL Panhandle coast and across
north FL, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast.
There was a lot of rain (in terms of area coverage) across our
Gulf coastal waters, but mainly just sprinkles inland. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave trough
over our forecast area. There was ample moisture above 700 mb but
the lower troposphere was relatively dry. Most of the rain will
continue to remain offshore until this afternoon, when Q-G
forcing, mesoscale boundary interactions, and insolation will
combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms- mainly in
north FL and south central GA (where our highest PoP is 40%).
There is some question regarding the amount of insolation we will
actually get this afternoon, and we adjusted our high temperature
forecast downward a bit (in line with the latest RAP) to account
for the rather thick clouds.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon & evening.

&&

.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   87  68  86  67  89 /  30  50  20  10  10
Panama City   86  71  86  71  88 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        89  67  83  66  89 /  30  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      85  66  84  65  88 /  40  40  40  10  10
Cross City    84  66  86  65  88 /  40  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  84  72  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS









000
FXUS62 KTAE 190807 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Update...

As was mentioned as a good possibility, did end up changing PoPs
for today, with the main difference being 60% (likely) rain
chances near the coast, over the SE FL Big Bend, and over the
entire coastal waters this morning. This is due to a large area of
convection already breaking out over western portions of the
marine area, and the Gulf of Mexico waters to the south of both
Mobile and New Orleans.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall
amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today
(and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer
moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west
that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive
southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion
of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it
moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining
moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which
is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this
evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which
will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am
going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50%
generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the
FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35"
possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and
high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning.
Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible
this afternoon at all sites except DHN.


.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  10  10
Panama City   88  71  86  71  88 /  60  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  67  83  66  89 /  50  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      87  66  84  65  88 /  50  40  40  10  10
Cross City    87  66  86  65  88 /  60  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  84  72  85 /  60  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GOULD
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 190807 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Update...

As was mentioned as a good possibility, did end up changing PoPs
for today, with the main difference being 60% (likely) rain
chances near the coast, over the SE FL Big Bend, and over the
entire coastal waters this morning. This is due to a large area of
convection already breaking out over western portions of the
marine area, and the Gulf of Mexico waters to the south of both
Mobile and New Orleans.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall
amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today
(and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer
moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west
that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive
southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion
of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it
moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining
moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which
is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this
evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which
will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am
going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50%
generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the
FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35"
possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and
high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning.
Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible
this afternoon at all sites except DHN.


.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  10  10
Panama City   88  71  86  71  88 /  60  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  67  83  66  89 /  50  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      87  66  84  65  88 /  50  40  40  10  10
Cross City    87  66  86  65  88 /  60  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  84  72  85 /  60  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GOULD
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 190744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall
amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today
(and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer
moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west
that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive
southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion
of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it
moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining
moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which
is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this
evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which
will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am
going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50%
generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the
FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35"
possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and
high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning.
Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible
this afternoon at all sites except DHN.

&&

.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  10  10
Panama City   88  71  86  71  88 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  67  83  66  89 /  50  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      87  66  84  65  88 /  50  40  40  10  10
Cross City    87  66  86  65  88 /  50  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 190744
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall
amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today
(and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer
moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west
that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive
southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion
of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it
moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining
moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which
is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this
evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which
will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am
going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50%
generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the
FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35"
possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and
high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning.
Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible
this afternoon at all sites except DHN.

&&

.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  10  10
Panama City   88  71  86  71  88 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  67  83  66  89 /  50  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      87  66  84  65  88 /  50  40  40  10  10
Cross City    87  66  86  65  88 /  50  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 190039
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
839 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Isolated convection has diminished for the evening. A steady
stream of mid and high level clouds is likely overnight with
lows ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period at the terminals. There is a chance for a brief period
of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions around VLD for a few hours
around sunrise. Isolated to scattered convection is also expected
during the afternoon hours on Friday with the best chance around
VLD where a VCTS was included.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A relatively low-amplitude wave currently near Arkansas should
continue digging southeast, leading to the development of a broad
mid-upper level trough centered just east of our area by Friday
afternoon. Models indicate that this may close off into a low
briefly on Saturday near the northeast Florida coastline. Either
way, our forecast area is expected to be on the back side of the
mid-upper level trough axis. Because of this, isentropic descent
is noted at most layers (295-315K), associated with weak
subsidence given our position relative to the trough axis. We
will, however, remain in a low-level easterly flow regime near the
base of a surface ridge axis. With PWATs close to September median
values at TLH, this is a flow pattern that can lead to some
isolated to scattered showers from the mid afternoon to evening.
Given negating factors for large scale vertical motion, we opted
to keep PoPs closer to the low end of guidance both Friday and
Saturday (20-30%, with 40% far east). While model guidance does
indicate some convective instability, these sort of patterns tend
to favor low-topped convective showers versus thunderstorms, so
the forecast wording reflects a lower chance of storms.

The expanding low-level surface ridge and east to northeast flow
should lead to some CAA in those layers. Model consensus 850mb
temperatures are forecast to decrease about 3-4C from this
evening through Saturday evening. The result should be a gradual
cooling trend through the period, with highs on Friday from the
upper 80s to around 90, and highs on Saturday in the mid 80s. It`s
worth noting that Tallahassee has not observed a day with below
normal temperatures (by avg temp) since August 1st, and that may
finally occur during this forecast period (especially Saturday),
although it will likely be very close.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.


.Marine...

Much of the forecast period will be dominated by a surface high
pressure ridge over the eastern US, which will place the coastal
waters in an easterly flow regime on most days. Several periods of
enhanced easterly flow seem likely: (1) from Friday to Saturday
with SCEC winds possible offshore -AND- (2) beginning Wednesday
with SCEC winds likely.


.Fire Weather...

RH values and other parameters are not expected to approach red
flag levels during the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  68  86  67 /  10  40  30  30  20
Panama City   72  89  71  87  70 /  10  30  30  20  20
Dothan        66  89  68  85  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
Albany        68  88  68  85  65 /  10  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      69  87  66  84  66 /  10  40  30  40  20
Cross City    70  87  66  86  66 /  10  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  71  87  72  84  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Now that the surface front has pushed through most of the area we
are seeing dewpoints range from the upper 50s at Dothan and
Albany to upper 60s at near the coast. PoPs are low tonight with
the greatest chance (20-30%) over the Gulf, similar to what we saw
last night. Winds will be light overnight and lows will be in the
upper 60s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A relatively low-amplitude wave currently near Arkansas should
continue digging southeast, leading to the development of a broad
mid-upper level trough centered just east of our area by Friday
afternoon. Models indicate that this may close off into a low
briefly on Saturday near the northeast Florida coastline. Either
way, our forecast area is expected to be on the back side of the
mid-upper level trough axis. Because of this, isentropic descent
is noted at most layers (295-315K), associated with weak
subsidence given our position relative to the trough axis. We
will, however, remain in a low-level easterly flow regime near the
base of a surface ridge axis. With PWATs close to September median
values at TLH, this is a flow pattern that can lead to some
isolated to scattered showers from the mid afternoon to evening.
Given negating factors for large scale vertical motion, we opted
to keep PoPs closer to the low end of guidance both Friday and
Saturday (20-30%, with 40% far east). While model guidance does
indicate some convective instability, these sort of patterns tend
to favor low-topped convective showers versus thunderstorms, so
the forecast wording reflects a lower chance of storms.

The expanding low-level surface ridge and east to northeast flow
should lead to some CAA in those layers. Model consensus 850mb
temperatures are forecast to decrease about 3-4C from this
evening through Saturday evening. The result should be a gradual
cooling trend through the period, with highs on Friday from the
upper 80s to around 90, and highs on Saturday in the mid 80s. It`s
worth noting that Tallahassee has not observed a day with below
normal temperatures (by avg temp) since August 1st, and that may
finally occur during this forecast period (especially Saturday),
although it will likely be very close.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should prevail
through the period at all terminals. The only exception is a
period of IFR at VLD from 9-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Much of the forecast period will be dominated by a surface high
pressure ridge over the eastern US, which will place the coastal
waters in an easterly flow regime on most days. Several periods of
enhanced easterly flow seem likely: (1) from Friday to Saturday
with SCEC winds possible offshore -AND- (2) beginning Wednesday
with SCEC winds likely.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values and other parameters are not expected to approach red
flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  68  86  67 /  10  40  30  30  20
Panama City   72  89  71  87  70 /  10  30  30  20  20
Dothan        66  89  68  85  65 /   0  20  20  10  10
Albany        68  88  68  85  65 /  10  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      69  87  66  84  66 /  10  40  30  40  20
Cross City    70  87  66  86  66 /  30  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  71  87  72  84  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Now that the surface front has pushed through most of the area we
are seeing dewpoints range from the upper 50s at Dothan and
Albany to upper 60s at near the coast. PoPs are low tonight with
the greatest chance (20-30%) over the Gulf, similar to what we saw
last night. Winds will be light overnight and lows will be in the
upper 60s.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A relatively low-amplitude wave currently near Arkansas should
continue digging southeast, leading to the development of a broad
mid-upper level trough centered just east of our area by Friday
afternoon. Models indicate that this may close off into a low
briefly on Saturday near the northeast Florida coastline. Either
way, our forecast area is expected to be on the back side of the
mid-upper level trough axis. Because of this, isentropic descent
is noted at most layers (295-315K), associated with weak
subsidence given our position relative to the trough axis. We
will, however, remain in a low-level easterly flow regime near the
base of a surface ridge axis. With PWATs close to September median
values at TLH, this is a flow pattern that can lead to some
isolated to scattered showers from the mid afternoon to evening.
Given negating factors for large scale vertical motion, we opted
to keep PoPs closer to the low end of guidance both Friday and
Saturday (20-30%, with 40% far east). While model guidance does
indicate some convective instability, these sort of patterns tend
to favor low-topped convective showers versus thunderstorms, so
the forecast wording reflects a lower chance of storms.

The expanding low-level surface ridge and east to northeast flow
should lead to some CAA in those layers. Model consensus 850mb
temperatures are forecast to decrease about 3-4C from this
evening through Saturday evening. The result should be a gradual
cooling trend through the period, with highs on Friday from the
upper 80s to around 90, and highs on Saturday in the mid 80s. It`s
worth noting that Tallahassee has not observed a day with below
normal temperatures (by avg temp) since August 1st, and that may
finally occur during this forecast period (especially Saturday),
although it will likely be very close.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should prevail
through the period at all terminals. The only exception is a
period of IFR at VLD from 9-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Much of the forecast period will be dominated by a surface high
pressure ridge over the eastern US, which will place the coastal
waters in an easterly flow regime on most days. Several periods of
enhanced easterly flow seem likely: (1) from Friday to Saturday
with SCEC winds possible offshore -AND- (2) beginning Wednesday
with SCEC winds likely.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values and other parameters are not expected to approach red
flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  68  86  67 /  10  40  30  30  20
Panama City   72  89  71  87  70 /  10  30  30  20  20
Dothan        66  89  68  85  65 /   0  20  20  10  10
Albany        68  88  68  85  65 /  10  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      69  87  66  84  66 /  10  40  30  40  20
Cross City    70  87  66  86  66 /  30  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  71  87  72  84  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181345
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Previous forecast is on track. With the Sfc cold front expected to
be pushed further to our south today, much drier air will advect
in from the northwest. This will allow dew points to mix out into
the lower to middle 60s away from the coast this afternoon.
Although dry, it will still be quite warm across the region today,
with high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s under
partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be limited to the
coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.

&&

.Hydrology...

With all rivers below flood stage and light rainfall amounts
expected through the weekend, river flooding is not a concern.

&&

.Prev Discussion [726 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should
prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period,
except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility
after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other
terminals as well.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.


.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      91  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    90  70  86  65  84 /  20  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD/WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181345
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Previous forecast is on track. With the Sfc cold front expected to
be pushed further to our south today, much drier air will advect
in from the northwest. This will allow dew points to mix out into
the lower to middle 60s away from the coast this afternoon.
Although dry, it will still be quite warm across the region today,
with high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s under
partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be limited to the
coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.

&&

.Hydrology...

With all rivers below flood stage and light rainfall amounts
expected through the weekend, river flooding is not a concern.

&&

.Prev Discussion [726 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should
prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period,
except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility
after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other
terminals as well.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.


.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      91  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    90  70  86  65  84 /  20  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD/WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181126
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should
prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period,
except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility
after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other
terminals as well.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With the Sfc cold front expected to be pushed further to our south
today, much drier air will advect in from the northwest. This will
allow dew points to mix out into the lower to middle 60s away from
the coast this afternoon. Although dry, it will still be quite warm
across the region today, with high temps climbing into the upper 80s
to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be
limited to the coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.


.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.


.Hydrology...

With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the
weekend, stream flows will be in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      92  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    91  70  86  65  84 /  10  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD/WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 181126
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light winds should
prevail at the terminals through much of the upcoming TAF period,
except for the possibility of a brief period of MVFR visibility
after 08Z. This is most likely at VLD, but possible at the other
terminals as well.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With the Sfc cold front expected to be pushed further to our south
today, much drier air will advect in from the northwest. This will
allow dew points to mix out into the lower to middle 60s away from
the coast this afternoon. Although dry, it will still be quite warm
across the region today, with high temps climbing into the upper 80s
to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be
limited to the coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.


.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.


.Hydrology...

With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the
weekend, stream flows will be in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      92  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    91  70  86  65  84 /  10  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD/WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 180757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With the Sfc cold front expected to be pushed further to our south
today, much drier air will advect in from the northwest. This will
allow dewpoints to mix out into the lower to middle 60s away from
the coast this afternoon. Although dry, it will still be quite warm
across the region today, with high temps climbing into the upper 80s
to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be
limited to the coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions should prevail at the terminals through much of
the upcoming time frame, with the exceptions of brief periods of
MVFR Vis at DHN, ABY, and VLD overnight and early this morning.
Otherwise, light winds and just sct CU and CI from time to time
will dominate the skies.

&&

.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.

&&

.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the
weekend, streamflows will be in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      92  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    91  70  86  65  84 /  10  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 180757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With the Sfc cold front expected to be pushed further to our south
today, much drier air will advect in from the northwest. This will
allow dewpoints to mix out into the lower to middle 60s away from
the coast this afternoon. Although dry, it will still be quite warm
across the region today, with high temps climbing into the upper 80s
to lower 90s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should also be
limited to the coastal waters, with PoPs no higher than 20-30%.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Two distinct features will play an important role in the evolution
of the synoptic pattern and subsequently convective coverage
through Saturday. The first is an upper level +PV anomaly, or
shortwave, currently centered over eastern South Dakota. The
second is a ribbon of mid-level +PV created by convection along
a stationary boundary draped northwest to southeast through the
central Plains. These two features will "merge" as they enter the
Southeast, with the mid-level anomaly forcing the upper shortwave
to cutoff from the more progressive northern stream flow.

On Friday, expect the best deep layer synoptic ascent associated
with the shortwave to be just south and east of our southeast Big
Bend counties. This will place the main +PV anomaly directly over
the Tri-State region by the afternoon. The result of this will be
a strengthening surface ridge and associated wedge of cooler air
pressing southwest into our region. This relatively weak boundary
should be strong enough to initiate some convection along its
leading edge. Though, the vertical extent of these storms should
be limited with plenty of dry air slipping in aloft.

On Saturday, the mid-level anomaly will have amplified the upper-
level cutoff low over southeast Georgia. Both of the
aforementioned features will have induced low-level cyclogenesis
over the western Atlantic, placing the the region under a fairly
strong low-level northeasterly flow regime. The northeasterly flow
will lift from the warm western Atlantic, over the "cool" wedge
that established itself over the Southeast. This will likely
spread an area of showers inland, moving from northeast to
southwest through the day. It is unlikely that these showers will
make it too far west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany.

Expect afternoon highs on Friday to range from around 90 degrees
along the Florida Panhandle and across southeast Alabama, to the
middle 80s across much of Georgia. On Saturday, the middle 80s
will be more common area-wide.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions should prevail at the terminals through much of
the upcoming time frame, with the exceptions of brief periods of
MVFR Vis at DHN, ABY, and VLD overnight and early this morning.
Otherwise, light winds and just sct CU and CI from time to time
will dominate the skies.

&&

.Marine...

Relatively light winds today will shift northeast and increase to
near cautionary levels Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter,
the pressure pattern will weaken again, lowering winds well below
headline levels.

&&

.Fire Weather...

The influx of drier air into the region will peak this afternoon,
but relative humidities and other critical fire weather parameters
will not approach Red Flag levels during the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

With generally light rainfall amounts expected through the
weekend, streamflows will be in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  68  89  68  84 /  10  10  40  30  40
Panama City   89  71  88  71  86 /  10  10  30  40  30
Dothan        90  66  88  67  85 /  10   0  40  30  10
Albany        89  67  86  67  84 /  10  10  40  20  40
Valdosta      92  68  86  66  83 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    91  70  86  65  84 /  10  30  50  40  60
Apalachicola  89  71  87  71  83 /  10  10  30  50  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 172336
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
736 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Isolated convection is expected to rapidly diminish this evening
as drier air continues to move into the area. Overnight lows are
expected to range from the mid 60s across the north to the lower
70s at the beaches.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period at the terminals. There is a chance for a brief period
of reduced visibility due to patchy fog for a few hours around
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Marine...
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.


.Fire Weather...
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.


.Hydrology...
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  92  68  90  68 /  20   0  10  40  20
Panama City   71  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        66  89  67  89  67 /  10   0  10  20  10
Albany        66  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  91  68  88  67 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    69  93  70  84  68 /  10   0  10  50  20
Apalachicola  73  88  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172336
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
736 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Isolated convection is expected to rapidly diminish this evening
as drier air continues to move into the area. Overnight lows are
expected to range from the mid 60s across the north to the lower
70s at the beaches.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period at the terminals. There is a chance for a brief period
of reduced visibility due to patchy fog for a few hours around
sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.


.Marine...
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.


.Fire Weather...
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.


.Hydrology...
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  92  68  90  68 /  20   0  10  40  20
Panama City   71  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        66  89  67  89  67 /  10   0  10  20  10
Albany        66  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  91  68  88  67 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    69  93  70  84  68 /  10   0  10  50  20
Apalachicola  73  88  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171914
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few light showers are popping up across Southwest Georgia.
Dewpoints are near 70 for most of the area and will decrease to
the mid 60s tonight as dry air continues to push south. Rain
chances are low tonight with PoPs 10% or less. Lows tonight will
be cooler than the past few nights and will range from 66 at
Dothan and Albany to 72 near the coast.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals
through the rest of the period. MVFR visibility is possible at VLD
between 9-14Z.

&&

.Marine...
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  92  68  90  68 /  10   0  10  40  20
Panama City   71  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        66  89  67  89  67 /  10   0  10  20  10
Albany        66  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  91  68  88  67 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    69  93  70  84  68 /  10   0  10  50  20
Apalachicola  73  88  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 171914
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A few light showers are popping up across Southwest Georgia.
Dewpoints are near 70 for most of the area and will decrease to
the mid 60s tonight as dry air continues to push south. Rain
chances are low tonight with PoPs 10% or less. Lows tonight will
be cooler than the past few nights and will range from 66 at
Dothan and Albany to 72 near the coast.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Drier air will continue to move into the region on Thursday. This
will yield another mainly dry day across the region with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

By Friday, an upper low will begin to cut off across NE Florida.
As a weak surface reflection develops beneath this feature, the
gradient will tighten between this low and high pressure across
the Mid Atlantic. As low level easterly flow strengthens across
the Western Atlantic and into our region, low level moisture will
increase leading to a period of stratus across the eastern 2/3rds
of the forecast area. Most of the model guidance this cycle has
responded with 40 to 60 percent pops across the eastern counties.
For now, 60 percent seems a bit high, but will trend the forecast
pops for Friday and into Friday night upward. Due to extensive
cloud cover, temperatures on Friday will be cooler, generally in
the mid 80s.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The long term period begins with the upper low off the Florida
east coast being pulled northward ahead of a deepening eastern
CONUS trough. Drier conditions will return by Sunday afternoon
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. With the main upper
level forcing transitioning from the Ohio Valley to New England
Mon-Tue, it continues to appear that the next cold front will
stall near or just north of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thereafter, with the boundary in place and low level flow shifting
to easterly, a period of moist and unsettled conditions will
likely return.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all the terminals
through the rest of the period. MVFR visibility is possible at VLD
between 9-14Z.

&&

.Marine...
Generally light offshore flow will continue into Friday before
shifting to easterly as high pressure builds down the east coast.
Moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the weekend
before decreasing on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
While rainfall yesterday was not sufficiently widespread to result
in any significant rises on area rivers, localized heavy rainfall
amounts did result in some notable rises on the smaller creeks and
streams across the Florida Panhandle. With generally light
rainfall amounts expected through the weekend, streamflows will be
in recession for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  92  68  90  68 /  10   0  10  40  20
Panama City   71  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        66  89  67  89  67 /  10   0  10  20  10
Albany        66  90  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      67  91  68  88  67 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    69  93  70  84  68 /  10   0  10  50  20
Apalachicola  73  88  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 171404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As the trough digs deeper the front will push through bringing lower
dewpoints. We are already seeing some of this drier air behind a
line of stratus that moved through this morning. The 12Z sounding
was much drier with a PWAT of 1.72 inches compared to 2.29 inches
yesterday. Rain chances are much lower than yesterday with the
highest being 20-30 percent in the Big Bend. Highs will be in the
low 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions with light winds are expected
at all the terminals through the remainder of the period with the
one exception of a period of MVFR visibility at VLD after 09Z. Most
of today`s convection should remain south and east of TLH and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard
will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air
overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal
boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an
increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off
east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across
the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal
waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front
earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal
levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models
show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast
as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of
pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the
weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be
expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region.

Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes
highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US
and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern
amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make
its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z
Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and
upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z
and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the
period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front
clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution
supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine
area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly
and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds
down the Atlantic seaboard.


.Fire Weather...

Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.


.Hydrology...

The Florida Panhandle saw heavy rain yesterday with totals of 2 to
4 inches, even up to 9 inches at one location. While there is a
chance of rain again tomorrow, QPF will be light and should not
have a significant effect on rivers which are all below flood
stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  69  92  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Panama City   89  71  90  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        91  66  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  10  20
Albany        91  66  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  92  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Cross City    88  70  92  69  88 /  30  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  88  74  89  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As the trough digs deeper the front will push through bringing lower
dewpoints. We are already seeing some of this drier air behind a
line of stratus that moved through this morning. The 12Z sounding
was much drier with a PWAT of 1.72 inches compared to 2.29 inches
yesterday. Rain chances are much lower than yesterday with the
highest being 20-30 percent in the Big Bend. Highs will be in the
low 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions with light winds are expected
at all the terminals through the remainder of the period with the
one exception of a period of MVFR visibility at VLD after 09Z. Most
of today`s convection should remain south and east of TLH and VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard
will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air
overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal
boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an
increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off
east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across
the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal
waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front
earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal
levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models
show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast
as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of
pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the
weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be
expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region.

Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes
highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US
and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern
amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make
its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z
Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and
upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z
and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the
period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front
clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution
supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine
area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly
and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds
down the Atlantic seaboard.


.Fire Weather...

Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.


.Hydrology...

The Florida Panhandle saw heavy rain yesterday with totals of 2 to
4 inches, even up to 9 inches at one location. While there is a
chance of rain again tomorrow, QPF will be light and should not
have a significant effect on rivers which are all below flood
stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  69  92  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Panama City   89  71  90  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        91  66  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  10  20
Albany        91  66  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  92  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Cross City    88  70  92  69  88 /  30  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  88  74  89  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







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