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000
FXUS62 KTAE 311519
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Some models are still indicating the potential for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the northeast part of our area this
afternoon and early this evening - particularly NMM-core WRF
models. Our local WRF-ARW and the HRRR do not generate much
convection, and most of the larger scale models don`t show much
QPF either. The latest objective RAP analysis shows an area of
weak convergence and a surface dewpoint gradient very near I-75.
Given that there is a focus for some convective development later
this afternoon, we will maintain around a 20% PoP near I-75.
Otherwise, it looks to be another dry and mostly sunny day with
highs in the low-mid 90s. The inherited forecast is generally on
track, so only minor tweaks were made to account for the latest
observational data.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]

Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.


.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  69  94  71  93 /   0   0  20  20  40
Panama City   88  74  88  75  88 /   0   0  20  20  30
Dothan        90  69  92  71  92 /   0  10  40  20  50
Albany        91  69  93  71  92 /  20  20  50  30  50
Valdosta      96  69  95  71  92 /  20  20  30  20  50
Cross City    93  69  92  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  70  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE







000
FXUS62 KTAE 311519
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Some models are still indicating the potential for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the northeast part of our area this
afternoon and early this evening - particularly NMM-core WRF
models. Our local WRF-ARW and the HRRR do not generate much
convection, and most of the larger scale models don`t show much
QPF either. The latest objective RAP analysis shows an area of
weak convergence and a surface dewpoint gradient very near I-75.
Given that there is a focus for some convective development later
this afternoon, we will maintain around a 20% PoP near I-75.
Otherwise, it looks to be another dry and mostly sunny day with
highs in the low-mid 90s. The inherited forecast is generally on
track, so only minor tweaks were made to account for the latest
observational data.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]

Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.


.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  69  94  71  93 /   0   0  20  20  40
Panama City   88  74  88  75  88 /   0   0  20  20  30
Dothan        90  69  92  71  92 /   0  10  40  20  50
Albany        91  69  93  71  92 /  20  20  50  30  50
Valdosta      96  69  95  71  92 /  20  20  30  20  50
Cross City    93  69  92  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  70  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE








000
FXUS62 KTAE 310714
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Outside of a slight chance of a light shower or thunderstorm across
extreme NE portions of our GA zones later this afternoon, another
mostly sunny (through periods of high cloudiness), seasonably hot,
but unseasonably dry day is expected across the region today. High
temps will range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast, to
the lower to middle 90s over the interior with some filtered
sunshine from time to time. Thereafter, as described below, a more
unsettled pattern is slated to return to our region to begin the
month of August.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]

Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  69  94  71  93 /  10  10  20  20  40
Panama City   88  74  88  75  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        90  69  92  71  92 /  10  10  40  20  50
Albany        90  69  93  71  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Valdosta      96  69  95  71  92 /  10  10  30  20  50
Cross City    94  69  92  71  92 /  10  10  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  70  88  72  88 /  10   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE








000
FXUS62 KTAE 310714
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Outside of a slight chance of a light shower or thunderstorm across
extreme NE portions of our GA zones later this afternoon, another
mostly sunny (through periods of high cloudiness), seasonably hot,
but unseasonably dry day is expected across the region today. High
temps will range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast, to
the lower to middle 90s over the interior with some filtered
sunshine from time to time. Thereafter, as described below, a more
unsettled pattern is slated to return to our region to begin the
month of August.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]

Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  69  94  71  93 /  10  10  20  20  40
Panama City   88  74  88  75  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        90  69  92  71  92 /  10  10  40  20  50
Albany        90  69  93  71  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Valdosta      96  69  95  71  92 /  10  10  30  20  50
Cross City    94  69  92  71  92 /  10  10  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  70  88  72  88 /  10   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE









000
FXUS62 KTAE 310130
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large scale pattern remain highly amplified with ridging over
Wrn 1/3rd and troughing over Ern 2/3rd becoming increasingly broad
from N-S. At surface, cold front across S/Cntrl Gulf of Mex Newd to
meso-low near JAX. N of front, strong high pressure NWD to across
local region. Locally this translates to NLY flow sfc-H7 then WLY
flow above. PWATS generally a bone dry 0.5 inches.A shower or two
is possible across extreme ERN GA counties closest to meso low as
seen on NM4 but not other HI RES guidance. Chances too low for
inclusion in GRIDS.

With dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once
again be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at
the beaches and urban areas). Some sites will again approach record
low for July 31st. Some sites include:

    SITE        FORECAST LOW     RECORD LOW
Tallahassee AP     66             63   1886
Apalachicola       69             69   1984
Cross City         66             69   1954

The only caveat is some high cirrus streaming Ewd from a shortwave
that will reach the Lwr Ms Valley by sunrise and possibly temper
mins across NW portions of our CWA.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] After a few very dry days, we will begin to see
an influx of low level moisture and possibly isolated showers across
the Valdosta region on Thursday. A cig may develop around 5kft in
the afternoon at VLD, ABY and TLH. Otherwise, unrestricted
vis/unlimited cigs through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [135 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected
to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the
current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by
Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday,
although they should remain below normal for another day
(Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather
tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few
showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon
Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface
pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has
been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible
over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture
arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows
around 70 each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which
also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Marine...

Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach
SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise,
a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and
seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.


.Fire Weather...

Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will
continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not
expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  94  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   70  90  74  89  74 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dothan        65  92  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  40  20
Albany        68  93  71  91  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      68  96  70  95  71 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    66  94  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  69  89  73  88  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE








000
FXUS62 KTAE 310130
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large scale pattern remain highly amplified with ridging over
Wrn 1/3rd and troughing over Ern 2/3rd becoming increasingly broad
from N-S. At surface, cold front across S/Cntrl Gulf of Mex Newd to
meso-low near JAX. N of front, strong high pressure NWD to across
local region. Locally this translates to NLY flow sfc-H7 then WLY
flow above. PWATS generally a bone dry 0.5 inches.A shower or two
is possible across extreme ERN GA counties closest to meso low as
seen on NM4 but not other HI RES guidance. Chances too low for
inclusion in GRIDS.

With dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once
again be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at
the beaches and urban areas). Some sites will again approach record
low for July 31st. Some sites include:

    SITE        FORECAST LOW     RECORD LOW
Tallahassee AP     66             63   1886
Apalachicola       69             69   1984
Cross City         66             69   1954

The only caveat is some high cirrus streaming Ewd from a shortwave
that will reach the Lwr Ms Valley by sunrise and possibly temper
mins across NW portions of our CWA.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] After a few very dry days, we will begin to see
an influx of low level moisture and possibly isolated showers across
the Valdosta region on Thursday. A cig may develop around 5kft in
the afternoon at VLD, ABY and TLH. Otherwise, unrestricted
vis/unlimited cigs through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [135 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected
to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the
current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by
Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday,
although they should remain below normal for another day
(Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather
tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few
showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon
Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface
pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has
been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible
over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture
arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows
around 70 each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which
also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Marine...

Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach
SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise,
a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and
seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.


.Fire Weather...

Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will
continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not
expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  94  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   70  90  74  89  74 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dothan        65  92  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  40  20
Albany        68  93  71  91  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      68  96  70  95  71 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    66  94  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  69  89  73  88  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301735
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The unusually deep, dry airmass will remain across our forecast
area tonight. We don`t expect any showers in our region, though
there could be a small shower or two nearby in Southeast GA. With
dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once again
be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at
the beaches and urban areas).


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected
to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the
current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by
Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday,
although they should remain below normal for another day
(Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather
tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few
showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon
Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface
pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has
been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible
over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture
arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows
around 70 each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which
also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18z Thursday] Rain-free conditions will continue into
Thursday afternoon, though a few showers or thunderstorms may
develop after 18z Thursday around KVLD. Otherwise, we expect
unrestricted VIS/unlimited CIGS to prevail through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach
SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise,
a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and
seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will
continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not
expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  94  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   70  90  74  89  74 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dothan        65  92  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  40  20
Albany        68  93  71  91  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      68  96  70  95  71 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    66  94  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  69  89  73  88  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301735
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The unusually deep, dry airmass will remain across our forecast
area tonight. We don`t expect any showers in our region, though
there could be a small shower or two nearby in Southeast GA. With
dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once again
be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at
the beaches and urban areas).


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected
to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the
current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by
Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday,
although they should remain below normal for another day
(Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather
tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few
showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon
Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface
pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has
been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible
over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture
arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows
around 70 each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which
also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18z Thursday] Rain-free conditions will continue into
Thursday afternoon, though a few showers or thunderstorms may
develop after 18z Thursday around KVLD. Otherwise, we expect
unrestricted VIS/unlimited CIGS to prevail through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach
SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise,
a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and
seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will
continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not
expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  94  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   70  90  74  89  74 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dothan        65  92  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  40  20
Albany        68  93  71  91  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      68  96  70  95  71 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    66  94  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  69  89  73  88  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE








000
FXUS62 KTAE 301440
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending from south-central FL westward into the Gulf of Mexico
for several hundred miles. Precipitable Water values, often
abbreviated as "PWAT" or "Precip Water", were nearly 50% below
climatology values across our forecast area, based on the latest
satellite imagery. (Precipitable Water is one way meteorologists
measure the amount of moisture throughout the troposphere, with
higher values indicating more available deep layer moisture for
rain). With such low moisture and the sea breeze front getting
pinned at the coast for most of the day, we aren`t calling for any
rain today...a rarity for our wettest time of the year. Highs will
still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but once again the lower
humidity will make it feel a little more comfortable than normal for
warm- blooded animals, as sweat (humans) and saliva (cats & dogs)
evaporate more readily and help keeps the body a little cooler.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]...But for the possibility of brief, light
fog around KVLD Thursday morning, generally unrestricted Vis &
unlimited cigs will persist. Winds will be NW to N less than 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.


.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be about our seasonable average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301440
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending from south-central FL westward into the Gulf of Mexico
for several hundred miles. Precipitable Water values, often
abbreviated as "PWAT" or "Precip Water", were nearly 50% below
climatology values across our forecast area, based on the latest
satellite imagery. (Precipitable Water is one way meteorologists
measure the amount of moisture throughout the troposphere, with
higher values indicating more available deep layer moisture for
rain). With such low moisture and the sea breeze front getting
pinned at the coast for most of the day, we aren`t calling for any
rain today...a rarity for our wettest time of the year. Highs will
still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but once again the lower
humidity will make it feel a little more comfortable than normal for
warm- blooded animals, as sweat (humans) and saliva (cats & dogs)
evaporate more readily and help keeps the body a little cooler.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]...But for the possibility of brief, light
fog around KVLD Thursday morning, generally unrestricted Vis &
unlimited cigs will persist. Winds will be NW to N less than 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.


.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the
southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until
Saturday. Rainfall next week will be about our seasonable average,
so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or
thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal
today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered
CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to
Tallahassee.

&&

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.

&&

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail
through the TAF.


&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next
few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this
time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or
thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal
today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered
CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to
Tallahassee.

&&

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.

&&

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail
through the TAF.


&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next
few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this
time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 300104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over
much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into
Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front
across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally
this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front
noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15
degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has
dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees
especially over GA/AL counties.

Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to
record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect
lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except
near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for
July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola,
all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible
these values are not the most accurate.


   SITE              Forecast Low       Record Low
TALLAHASSEE              66                 67 1927
VALDOSTA                 63                 66 1954
CROSS CITY               66                 65 1949
APALACHICOLA             70                 67 1984

For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66
degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF
period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over
much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into
Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front
across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally
this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front
noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15
degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has
dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees
especially over GA/AL counties.

Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to
record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect
lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except
near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for
July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola,
all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible
these values are not the most accurate.


   SITE              Forecast Low       Record Low
TALLAHASSEE              66                 67 1927
VALDOSTA                 63                 66 1954
CROSS CITY               66                 65 1949
APALACHICOLA             70                 67 1984

For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66
degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF
period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 291833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Noon EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico
about 60 miles offshore. Precip Water values across much of AL & GA
were 50% below climatology, and this unusually dry airmass will
continue to overspread our forecast area through tonight. Light
winds and dry air will help low temperatures cool to the mid 60s
(slightly warmer at the beaches and in the cities). Interestingly,
if the low at Tallahassee reaches our forecast of 66 deg tonight, it
would be a new record low for July 30.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf
Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday.
VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 291833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Noon EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico
about 60 miles offshore. Precip Water values across much of AL & GA
were 50% below climatology, and this unusually dry airmass will
continue to overspread our forecast area through tonight. Light
winds and dry air will help low temperatures cool to the mid 60s
(slightly warmer at the beaches and in the cities). Interestingly,
if the low at Tallahassee reaches our forecast of 66 deg tonight, it
would be a new record low for July 30.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf
Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday.
VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
During Monday evening, a large upper trough anchored itself over
the ERN most U.S. At the surface, cold front from low off New
England SSW across Srn most AL/GA. Earlier, ahead of front and
across local area, ample low level moisture aided by strong
heating combined with a relatively unstable airmass
(thermodynamics quite favorable but kinematics only moderately
favorable) but augmented by added forcing from upward vertical
motion and vertical shear on Srn periphery of upper trough. Add
forcing from ESE-WSW oriented cold front and some mid-level dry
air and we had the ingredients for local enhancement and the
development of severe storms in the form of cell mergers or linear
segments especially near seabreeze boundaries. With roughly WNW
uni-directional flow, storms moved ESE. Primary impacts were from
damaging winds/downbursts plus small hail and intense lightning.
By 9 PM EDT, the focus was across the Big Bend but overall storms
were weakening due to the sheared out pre-frontal dynamics and
nocturnal stabilization as the cold front pushed further Swd
leaving generally isolated convection north of FL border and sct-
nmrs convection over FL. A strong storm cant be ruled out there
but the severe threat appears to have ended.

HI RES guidance indicates that storms across Florida should diminish
and largely end after 04z. Front should reach coastal area before
sunrise. Will go with 0-60% POPs thru 03z highest across coastal
FL, then 10-40% thru 12z highest over waters. In its wake, cooler
and drier air will begin spreading SEWD into the region with
overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into
the upper 60s with clouds and some winds translating to low to mid
70s over N FL.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions
remain possible into 1030 PM EDT and around midnight EDT ahead of
a cold front over TLH and ECP respectively. Otherwise, in the
wake of cold front...expect VFR conditions rest of the perid.

&&

.Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.


.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
During Monday evening, a large upper trough anchored itself over
the ERN most U.S. At the surface, cold front from low off New
England SSW across Srn most AL/GA. Earlier, ahead of front and
across local area, ample low level moisture aided by strong
heating combined with a relatively unstable airmass
(thermodynamics quite favorable but kinematics only moderately
favorable) but augmented by added forcing from upward vertical
motion and vertical shear on Srn periphery of upper trough. Add
forcing from ESE-WSW oriented cold front and some mid-level dry
air and we had the ingredients for local enhancement and the
development of severe storms in the form of cell mergers or linear
segments especially near seabreeze boundaries. With roughly WNW
uni-directional flow, storms moved ESE. Primary impacts were from
damaging winds/downbursts plus small hail and intense lightning.
By 9 PM EDT, the focus was across the Big Bend but overall storms
were weakening due to the sheared out pre-frontal dynamics and
nocturnal stabilization as the cold front pushed further Swd
leaving generally isolated convection north of FL border and sct-
nmrs convection over FL. A strong storm cant be ruled out there
but the severe threat appears to have ended.

HI RES guidance indicates that storms across Florida should diminish
and largely end after 04z. Front should reach coastal area before
sunrise. Will go with 0-60% POPs thru 03z highest across coastal
FL, then 10-40% thru 12z highest over waters. In its wake, cooler
and drier air will begin spreading SEWD into the region with
overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into
the upper 60s with clouds and some winds translating to low to mid
70s over N FL.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions
remain possible into 1030 PM EDT and around midnight EDT ahead of
a cold front over TLH and ECP respectively. Otherwise, in the
wake of cold front...expect VFR conditions rest of the perid.

&&

.Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.


.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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