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000
FXUS62 KTAE 011919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Showers and Thunderstorms for Friday, then Clearing and
Turning much Cooler for the Weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

There is a ridge in the upper levels and high pressure at the sfc.
Easterly flow is bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic. Clouds
will mostly clear out late this afternoon particularly over northern
parts of the region. No rain is expected since the cold front has
pushed well out of the region. Highs today will be in the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

With weak Sfc and upper level ridging still in place, the warm and
humid conditions will continue into Friday. High temps on Thursday
should climb into the upper 80s to around 90, provided there are
enough breaks in the persistent cloudiness. By late Thursday and
Thursday night, a weak warm frontal boundary will push into the
region from the SW, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west. On Friday, showers and storms
will be on the increase from west to east during during the day,
with most areas in the 60-70% PoP range by the day`s end. This
convection will be generated by a powerful upper level low that will
pivot SE through the Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night, helping
to accelerate a strong cold front through our area Friday night.
Although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, the
chances for a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
do appear greater today than they did yesterday. Any strong storms
will be driven by fairly high MLCAPES and good Sfc based instability
in nearly saturated soundings (PWATs > 2"), as the wind shear and
dynamic forcing will be quite meager at best. The showers and storms
will then taper off and come to an end from NW to SE during Friday
night, as winds shift to the NW behind the cold front. Low temps
Friday night will range from the middle 50s over SE AL to the lower
70s across the SE FL Big Bend.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

With the strong cold front pushing south of the region by Saturday
morning, much cooler and drier air will quickly advect in from the
west-northwest on breezy northwesterly winds. Despite plenty of
sunshine, this cool and dry air mass will limit high temps on
Saturday to the lower to middle 70s to the N and W and the middle to
upper 70s to the S and E. The ridge of high pressure behind the
front will then quickly build into the region on Saturday night and
Sunday, and remain centered in our vicinity through Monday. While
there will be significant cool air advection, the exact position of
the ridge during the overnight hours will be critical for
radiational cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this
time, the model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on
Sunday expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the
interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning. High
temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging from the
middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s on
Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire period,
with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and Tuesday as
an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Expect VFR conditions throughout the day.
Ceilings will linger until late afternoon but should remain above
3000 ft. MVFR visibilities are expected in the early morning hours
for ABY, DHN and VLD. VFR conditions will return shortly after
sunrise. Winds will be light. Winds will shift from northeasterly to
southeasterly throughout the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...

The weak high pressure system to the north of the coastal waters
will keep light winds and low seas across the marine area through
Friday morning. On Friday afternoon, winds will be on the increase
out of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front which will push
rapidly through the coastal waters on Friday night. Behind this
front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to cautionary
levels into Saturday night. High pressure will then build back in
for Sunday and the beginning of next week, bringing a return to
light winds and low seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A much drier airmass will filter into the region over the weekend in
the wake of a strong cold front. Relative humidity values are
forecast to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s both Saturday and
Sunday. However, at this time it is too low to determine if other
critical weather parameters will reach red flag conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average
totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the
approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little
impact on our area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  72  88  65 /  10  10  10  60  40
Panama City   73  87  75  87  65 /  10  20  20  70  30
Dothan        66  90  72  84  57 /  10  20  30  70  30
Albany        66  90  69  85  60 /  10  10  20  70  40
Valdosta      66  91  68  88  64 /  10  10  10  50  50
Cross City    68  88  70  87  71 /  10  20  10  40  50
Apalachicola  72  85  74  86  69 /  10  10  10  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD










000
FXUS62 KTAE 011919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Showers and Thunderstorms for Friday, then Clearing and
Turning much Cooler for the Weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

There is a ridge in the upper levels and high pressure at the sfc.
Easterly flow is bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic. Clouds
will mostly clear out late this afternoon particularly over northern
parts of the region. No rain is expected since the cold front has
pushed well out of the region. Highs today will be in the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

With weak Sfc and upper level ridging still in place, the warm and
humid conditions will continue into Friday. High temps on Thursday
should climb into the upper 80s to around 90, provided there are
enough breaks in the persistent cloudiness. By late Thursday and
Thursday night, a weak warm frontal boundary will push into the
region from the SW, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west. On Friday, showers and storms
will be on the increase from west to east during during the day,
with most areas in the 60-70% PoP range by the day`s end. This
convection will be generated by a powerful upper level low that will
pivot SE through the Great Lakes on Friday and Friday night, helping
to accelerate a strong cold front through our area Friday night.
Although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, the
chances for a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
do appear greater today than they did yesterday. Any strong storms
will be driven by fairly high MLCAPES and good Sfc based instability
in nearly saturated soundings (PWATs > 2"), as the wind shear and
dynamic forcing will be quite meager at best. The showers and storms
will then taper off and come to an end from NW to SE during Friday
night, as winds shift to the NW behind the cold front. Low temps
Friday night will range from the middle 50s over SE AL to the lower
70s across the SE FL Big Bend.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

With the strong cold front pushing south of the region by Saturday
morning, much cooler and drier air will quickly advect in from the
west-northwest on breezy northwesterly winds. Despite plenty of
sunshine, this cool and dry air mass will limit high temps on
Saturday to the lower to middle 70s to the N and W and the middle to
upper 70s to the S and E. The ridge of high pressure behind the
front will then quickly build into the region on Saturday night and
Sunday, and remain centered in our vicinity through Monday. While
there will be significant cool air advection, the exact position of
the ridge during the overnight hours will be critical for
radiational cooling for both Sunday and Monday morning. At this
time, the model guidance is continuing to trend cooler, with lows on
Sunday expected to be in the middle to upper 40s over much of the
interior, with upper 40s to lower 50s fcst for Monday morning. High
temps will gradually moderate through the period, ranging from the
middle to upper 70s on Sunday, to the lower to middle 80s on
Wednesday. Rain chances will be very slim through the entire period,
with just a slight chance of a shower on Monday night and Tuesday as
an upper level disturbance moves through from the NW.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Expect VFR conditions throughout the day.
Ceilings will linger until late afternoon but should remain above
3000 ft. MVFR visibilities are expected in the early morning hours
for ABY, DHN and VLD. VFR conditions will return shortly after
sunrise. Winds will be light. Winds will shift from northeasterly to
southeasterly throughout the TAF period.

&&

.Marine...

The weak high pressure system to the north of the coastal waters
will keep light winds and low seas across the marine area through
Friday morning. On Friday afternoon, winds will be on the increase
out of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front which will push
rapidly through the coastal waters on Friday night. Behind this
front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to cautionary
levels into Saturday night. High pressure will then build back in
for Sunday and the beginning of next week, bringing a return to
light winds and low seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A much drier airmass will filter into the region over the weekend in
the wake of a strong cold front. Relative humidity values are
forecast to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s both Saturday and
Sunday. However, at this time it is too low to determine if other
critical weather parameters will reach red flag conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although some of the stronger storms on Friday could produce locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 2", most areas should receive average
totals of 1" or less due to the fast moving nature of the
approaching cold front. This amount of rainfall will have little
impact on our area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  90  72  88  65 /  10  10  10  60  40
Panama City   73  87  75  87  65 /  10  20  20  70  30
Dothan        66  90  72  84  57 /  10  20  30  70  30
Albany        66  90  69  85  60 /  10  10  20  70  40
Valdosta      66  91  68  88  64 /  10  10  10  50  50
Cross City    68  88  70  87  71 /  10  20  10  40  50
Apalachicola  72  85  74  86  69 /  10  10  10  60  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 011530
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1130 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Low-level moisture remains trapped under an inversion around 850mb
this morning, with overcast skies still in place. Morning visible
imagery shows the cloud deck beginning to erode, which should
allow for some much awaited sunshine by early afternoon. With the
sun, temperatures should be able to get near the forecast highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, a mostly dry day is expected
outside of a few showers over the far southeastern Big Bend this
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] All terminals are VFR this morning with
cigs above 4kft. This cloud deck should scatter out during the
afternoon, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [230 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period
will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a
strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains.
Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually
absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer
than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday
afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across
the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front
into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z
Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday.
Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat
lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing
clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max
temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel
quite muggy, especially for October.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the
CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming
to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the
best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our
north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time.
However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air
masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in
behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both
Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating
trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and
Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low
temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday.
With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong
cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this
weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it
appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag
conditions.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to
generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises
on our area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  69  90  71  88 /  10  10  20  20  60
Panama City   87  73  87  74  86 /  10  10  30  30  50
Dothan        88  66  89  70  86 /  10  10  20  30  60
Albany        88  66  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  30  60
Valdosta      87  66  89  68  88 /  10  10  20  20  50
Cross City    88  68  89  68  88 /  20  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  85  72  85  74  85 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL









000
FXUS62 KTAE 010630
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a cool and foggy start to the morning, today will be dry and
warm. There is mostly zonal flow aloft today with a weak trough over
the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes. Regional
surface analysis shows high pressure in place over the southeast
with the center off to our north. The remnants of our last cold
front lies across the central Gulf of Mexico and central Florida.
With this boundary out over the water and moisture still plentiful
in the region, light showers may develop today out over our offshore
waters and in the southeastern Big Bend, but the rest of our area
will stay dry. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period
will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a
strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains.
Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually
absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer
than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday
afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across
the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front
into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z
Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday.
Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat
lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing
clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max
temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel
quite muggy, especially for October.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the
CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming
to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the
best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our
north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time.
However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air
masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in
behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both
Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating
trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and
Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low
temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR vsbys this morning everywhere but
ECP will clear out shortly after sunrise. VLD may see reduced cigs
as well, which may hang around a little later. Winds will be light
(less than 10 knots) and from the east/southeast.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday.
With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong
cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this
weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it
appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag
conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to
generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises
on our area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  69  90  71  88 /  10  10  20  20  60
Panama City   87  73  87  74  86 /  10  10  30  30  50
Dothan        88  66  89  70  86 /  10  10  20  30  60
Albany        88  66  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  30  60
Valdosta      87  66  89  68  88 /  10  10  20  20  50
Cross City    88  68  89  68  88 /  20  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  85  72  85  74  85 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL








000
FXUS62 KTAE 010630
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a cool and foggy start to the morning, today will be dry and
warm. There is mostly zonal flow aloft today with a weak trough over
the Pacific northwest and another over the Great Lakes. Regional
surface analysis shows high pressure in place over the southeast
with the center off to our north. The remnants of our last cold
front lies across the central Gulf of Mexico and central Florida.
With this boundary out over the water and moisture still plentiful
in the region, light showers may develop today out over our offshore
waters and in the southeastern Big Bend, but the rest of our area
will stay dry. Highs today will be in the mid-upper 80s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period
will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a
strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains.
Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually
absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer
than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday
afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across
the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front
into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z
Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday.
Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat
lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing
clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max
temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel
quite muggy, especially for October.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the
CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming
to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the
best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our
north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time.
However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air
masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in
behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both
Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating
trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and
Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low
temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR-IFR vsbys this morning everywhere but
ECP will clear out shortly after sunrise. VLD may see reduced cigs
as well, which may hang around a little later. Winds will be light
(less than 10 knots) and from the east/southeast.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday.
With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong
cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this
weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it
appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag
conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to
generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises
on our area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  69  90  71  88 /  10  10  20  20  60
Panama City   87  73  87  74  86 /  10  10  30  30  50
Dothan        88  66  89  70  86 /  10  10  20  30  60
Albany        88  66  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  30  60
Valdosta      87  66  89  68  88 /  10  10  20  20  50
Cross City    88  68  89  68  88 /  20  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  85  72  85  74  85 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTAE 010133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Finally looks to be a break in the pattern of cloudy weather in
the near future. The stratus deck was slowly eroding from the
north and west and continues to gradually thin this evening.
Further aloft, as weak shortwave ridging builds in, the airmass
has continued to dry out with the overall precipitable water down
to 1.63 inches. In areas that have cleared out, the low levels
remain moist enough to support patchy fog development before
sunrise. Still will be mild overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
Ceilings lifted to VFR prior to TAF issuance and have slowly
cleared from DHN/ECP. Expect clearing at ABY around 03z and
possibly into TLH around 06z. However, with the near surface layer
remaining quite moist, expect redevelopment (or lowering) of
ceilings to at least MVFR levels before sunrise. IFR conditions
are possible at VLD. Expect the cloud deck to scatter a bit faster
on Wednesday with VFR all sites by 16z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 010133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Finally looks to be a break in the pattern of cloudy weather in
the near future. The stratus deck was slowly eroding from the
north and west and continues to gradually thin this evening.
Further aloft, as weak shortwave ridging builds in, the airmass
has continued to dry out with the overall precipitable water down
to 1.63 inches. In areas that have cleared out, the low levels
remain moist enough to support patchy fog development before
sunrise. Still will be mild overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
Ceilings lifted to VFR prior to TAF issuance and have slowly
cleared from DHN/ECP. Expect clearing at ABY around 03z and
possibly into TLH around 06z. However, with the near surface layer
remaining quite moist, expect redevelopment (or lowering) of
ceilings to at least MVFR levels before sunrise. IFR conditions
are possible at VLD. Expect the cloud deck to scatter a bit faster
on Wednesday with VFR all sites by 16z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc
low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by
this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The
northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the
late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until
after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to
mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with
highs this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across
the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by
late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late
afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no
rain is expected all week.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







000
FXUS62 KTAE 301447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc
low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by
this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The
northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the
late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until
after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to
mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with
highs this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across
the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by
late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late
afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no
rain is expected all week.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300636
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery shows a much drier airmass at the mid and upper
levels pushing into the area from the northwest. Although it will
remain fairly moist in the low levels today, this drier air aloft
will allow for a dry day today across most of the area. The one
exception may be across the southeast big bend where deeper moisture
will still be present along with a weak surface trough. Therefore,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur there
this afternoon. High temperatures may be tricky this afternoon with
low clouds likely to start the morning. Sometimes these clouds can
hang around longer than guidance indicates, causing highs to end up
lower than MOS. The official forecast went a degree or two lower
than the MAV across most of the area for temperatures.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
to IFR cigs stretching from DHN to ABY and northward. These cigs are
expected to gradually expand southward through the morning hours.
Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to
early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR
conditions to return to most of the area.


&&

.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient for any
flooding concerns.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300636
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery shows a much drier airmass at the mid and upper
levels pushing into the area from the northwest. Although it will
remain fairly moist in the low levels today, this drier air aloft
will allow for a dry day today across most of the area. The one
exception may be across the southeast big bend where deeper moisture
will still be present along with a weak surface trough. Therefore,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur there
this afternoon. High temperatures may be tricky this afternoon with
low clouds likely to start the morning. Sometimes these clouds can
hang around longer than guidance indicates, causing highs to end up
lower than MOS. The official forecast went a degree or two lower
than the MAV across most of the area for temperatures.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
to IFR cigs stretching from DHN to ABY and northward. These cigs are
expected to gradually expand southward through the morning hours.
Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to
early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR
conditions to return to most of the area.


&&

.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient for any
flooding concerns.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 291855
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Abundant tropical moisture remains in place across the forecast area
this afternoon. While the rain has not been widespread, it has been
locally heavy with up to 5 inches falling in a corridor from Camilla
to Albany this morning. Through tonight, a weak shortwave will cross
the region and begin to push the deeper moisture south and east of
the forecast area. This should lead to diminishing rain chances as
the night goes on. Until that time, there is still some risk for
isolated heavy rain, so will allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue
until 00Z this evening.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 18Z Tuesday] MVFR conditions occurring at most terminals
early this afternoon. Main exception is KECP which still has IFR
cigs. Expect MVFR to occasional IFR conditions to continue through
the afternoon before IFR cigs settle in at all terminals this
evening for the overnight hours. Conditions will be slow to improve
on Tuesday, with MVFR conditions not expected until late morning.

&&

.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  60  20  20  30  20
Panama City   70  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        65  85  66  89  68 /  40  10  10  10  10
Albany        65  85  66  89  69 /  50  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  70  20  10  20  20
Cross City    70  85  69  88  68 /  60  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  50  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291532
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning
with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted
along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells
have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this
boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore
so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in
place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches
on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was
analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak
shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant
moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional
radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across
most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has
been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching
2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad
coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals
should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and
the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit
reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy
rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this
morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain
through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through
most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief
improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely
lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 / 100  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD









000
FXUS62 KTAE 291532
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning
with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted
along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells
have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this
boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore
so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in
place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches
on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was
analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak
shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant
moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional
radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across
most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has
been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching
2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad
coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals
should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and
the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit
reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy
rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this
morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain
through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through
most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief
improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely
lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 / 100  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290117
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is still possible through Monday...

.Update...

Through 01z, most of the rainfall has been confined to the Florida
zones and adjacent coastal waters. The heaviest rains over land have
been along the coast of Gulf and Franklin counties and over portions
of the southeast Big Bend. These areas based on radar estimates and
reporting gauges have received between 1 and 3 inches of rain. Local
radars currently show scattered convection generally along and south
of a Panama City to Valdosta line. We still believe that as the
upper level trough and eventual develop of a surface low along the
central Gulf coast moves east there is still the potential for heavy
rainfall across the Tri-state region. For this reason, we will keep
the Flash Flood Watch in place. PoPs have been trimmed back slightly
for the overnight period but are still in the likely to categorical
range.

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a rather ill-defined,
quasi-stationary front about 25 to 60 NM offshore the central Gulf
Coast, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed Precip water values exceeding 1.5
times normal values across much of our forecast area. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms have been developing over the Gulf Coastal
waters this morning & early afternoon, but so far the development of
rain inland has not been that impressive. However, all of the latest
NWP guidance is in agreement in increasing the Q-G forcing across
our region overnight, with the approach of a 500 mb trough
(currently over east TX). Thus we are confident in the eventual
development of rain across our entire forecast area.

The main forecast question is the amount of rain. Unfortunately the
NWP guidance offers quite a range of possibilities- from very little
QPF (with the heavy rain remaining just offshore) to areas exceeding
6 inches. The variety of solutions and lack of a single,
well-defined forcing mechanism makes it difficult to make a precise
rain amount forecast, but at the overall synoptic environment does
point to the potential for heavy rain, especially the abnormally
high moisture values. We think that portions of our forecast area
will get 1 to 2 inches of rain between now and 8 am EDT Monday, but
a few spots could get 6 inches. If these heavier amounts occur in a
city (or in any low- lying, poor drainage area), flash flooding
could occur.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

With plenty of deep layer tropical moisture already in place across
the CWA and points westward (widespread PWATs between 2" and 2.3"),
and the forcing for lift coming from a slow moving shortwave now
over western LA, a fairly widespread heavy rainfall event is still
expected across much of the region through Monday. Storm total
rainfall amounts are expected to average between 1.5" to 2.5" across
much of SE AL and SW and SC GA, with 2.5" to 4" amounts likely
across much of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle before all is said
and done. The heaviest amounts are still likely closest to the
coast, with parts of Bay, Walton, Gulf, Franklin, and Dixie counties
in FL possibly totaling over 4", with isolated 5-7" amounts not out
of the question. Also, given the poor organization and slow movement
of this low pressure system, there is still a reasonable amount of
uncertainty to warrant a continuation of the Flash Flood Watch for
the entire CWA through the day on Monday. PoPs on Monday will range
from 60 to 80% through the day, with this rainfall event gradually
winding down and coming to an end on Monday Night and Tuesday. With
plenty of clouds and rain, High temps tomorrow will struggle to
climb into the upper 70s to the middle 80s, with more widespread
middle to perhaps upper 80s on Tuesday as more insolation is
expected. Low temps both Monday and Tuesday nights should range from
the lower to middle 60s N, to the upper 60s to around 70 to the S.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 00Z Tuesday] Trimmed back mention of TSTMS for most periods
of the TAF cycle. Otherwise, fairly pessimistic forecast with
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys along with periods of rain throughout. Some of
the rain may be heavy at times possibly lowering vsbys to LIFR
levels, especially at ECP and TLH.

&&

.Marine...

Once again, winds and seas are running a little bit higher out of
the east to southeast than the models have been projecting, due to
the combination of a tighter pressure pattern and the numerous
showers and thunderstorms which keep developing over the marine
area. However, these winds and seas should stay below cautionary
levels through the period, while gradually decreasing. By Tuesday
night and Wednesday, winds will diminish to between 5 and 10 knots
out of the northeast, with seas dropping to around 1 foot.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Hydrology...

As mentioned above, storm total rainfall amounts are expected to
range from 1.5" well to the north in our HSA, to 4" or more well to
the south. Depending on exactly where the highest rainfall totals
are observed, will determine the potential flooding impacts on our
area rivers and streams. At the present time, the rivers most likely
to be impacted with significant rises would be the Choctawhatchee,
Apalachicola, and the Suwannee, though it would likely take more
rainfall than we are currently forecasting to bring them into flood
stage.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  86  69  87  67 /  80  70  50  30  10
Panama City   73  85  70  85  72 /  80  80  40  20  10
Dothan        69  83  64  87  64 /  80  80  30  10  10
Albany        70  81  65  86  64 /  80  80  30  10  10
Valdosta      71  83  67  85  63 /  80  80  50  30  10
Cross City    71  85  70  86  66 /  80  70  60  40  10
Apalachicola  74  85  72  83  72 /  80  70  50  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARRY
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/FOURNIER





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