000
FXUS62 KTAE 251928
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 PM EDT Sat May 25 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Tranquil conditions are expected tonight as high pressure remains in
control of the local weather pattern. Temperatures are expected to
be cool once again with lows generally in the mid to upper 50s,
though the dry conditions may allow for some lower 50s across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Generally, deep layer ridging will dominate the short term. Dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures will be the norm. A few
light showers may be possible each night across our Gulf waters in
easterly convergent flow.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
Continued deep layer ridging will prolong the trend of try
conditions and seasonable temperatures through the long term
period. Only gradual moistening is expected in the easterly
surface flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Persistent easterly flow will yield nocturnal surges frequently
reaching cautionary levels. Additionally, the possibility for
brief periods of advisory conditions will exist mid to late week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will keep a dry airmass in place through the remainder
of the weekend with a gradual increase in moisture expected by
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions will continue through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 88 56 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 85 65 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 58 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 86 56 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 87 53 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 88 55 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 84 64 81 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
portions of the Florida Panhandle as well as Leon and Wakulla
counties.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
000
FXUS62 KTAE 251431
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Sat May 25 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
After a crisp cool start across the region this morning expect
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny
skies. High pressure over the Southern Appalachians will allow for
dry northeasterly flow today. Though it will be warm, afternoon
humidities will be noticeably low for late May.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...
Surface High pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the
local region. A backdoor cold front will push down through the
Carolina`s and into north Georgia Sunday and Sunday night before
stalling. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s
which is normal. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the
low to middle 50s inland areas and lower to middle 60s along the
coast. Min temps begin to moderate Sunday night with lower to mid
60s for our western zones and mid to upper 50s east.
&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Exercise caution conditions will continue over the offshore waters
into the early afternoon. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly
flow will persist into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although it won`t be as breezy today, it will be drier with at least
6 to 8 hours of RH below 28% and ERC values greater than 37 across
portions of the FL Panhandle as well as Leon and Wakulla Counties
in the Big Bend. So a red flag warning remains in effect for these
counties in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. The airmass will
begin to gradually moisten up across the Panhandle on Sunday but
remain very dry across the Big Bend . ERC values will remain high in
these same areas. A Fire weather watch is now in effect for Sunday
aftn for Leon and Wakulla counties. The airmass will moisten up a
little more on Monday and Red Flag conditions are not anticipated
thru at least the middle of the upcoming work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are foreseen through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 88 54 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 85 64 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 59 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 86 55 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 87 52 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 88 54 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 84 63 81 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Central Walton-Coastal
Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-
Inland Walton-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTAE 251013
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
613 AM EDT Sat May 25 2013
UPDATED...
24hr temp/dew point comparisons indicates that airmass generally
running about 5 to 11 degrees cooler and 8 to 13 degrees drier than
same time yesterday. However, 6 AM EDT inland temps a tad warmer
than forecast, 55 to 60. This likely due to winds remaining elevated
most of night allowing mixing to retard expected temp drop.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified with deep
troughs across Pac and Atlc coasts/extreme Wrn Atlc and a ridge
centered over E/Cntrl Plains. This places local area on backside and
near base of trough with cutoff over N England heading offshore.
This allows for strong subsidence and NW steering flow. At surface,
low off Nrn mid-Atlc region with cold front swd parallel to coast
then SWWD across FL Straits. In its wake, large elongated high
pressure ridge building SEWD from Canada across Gulf region.
Increasingly cool and dry NLY drainage flow overspreading local
area. At 3 am EDT, inland sites generally 60 to 65 degrees and are
expected to drop to the low to mid 50s which would approach record
lows for this date.
RECORD MIN TEMPS for this morning May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
During the rest of today, mid/upper trough will continue to push Ewd
into Atlc. Under deep layer ridging, expect ample sunshine marred
only by some high clouds from distant shortwave. Area will rebound
from cool start with highs expected in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Surface High pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the
local region. A backdoor cold front will push down through the
Carolina`s and into north Georgia Sunday and Sunday night before
stalling. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s
which is normal. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the
low to middle 50s inland areas and lower to middle 60s along the
coast. Min temps begin to moderate Sunday night with lower to mid
60s for our western zones and mid to upper 50s east.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...[through 12 UTC Sunday]
Unlimited vis and cigs are expected through the period. Light NE to
start the period will become E to NE near 10 KT by late morning. A
late afternoon sea breeze (S near 10 KT) is likely at KECP Saturday.
By mid eve, winds will decrease to near calm.
&&
.MARINE...
Exercise caution conditions will continue over the offshore waters
this morning. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly flow will
persist into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although it won`t be as breezy today, it will be drier with at least
6 to 8 hours of RH below 28% and ERC values greater than 37 across
portions of the FL Panhandle as well as Leon and Wakulla Counties
in the Big Bend. So a red flag warning remains in effect for these
counties in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. The airmass will
begin to gradually moisten up across the Panhandle on Sunday but
remain very dry across the Big Bend . ERC values will remain high in
these same areas. A Fire weather watch is now in effect for Sunday
aftn for Leon and Wakulla counties. The airmass will moisten up a
little more on Monday and Red Flag conditions are not anticipated
thru at least the middle of the upcoming work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are foreseen through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 54 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 84 64 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 87 59 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 55 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 52 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 87 54 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 83 63 81 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Central Walton-Coastal
Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-
Inland Walton-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Barry
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Wool
000
FXUS62 KTAE 250721
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EDT Sat May 25 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified with deep
troughs across Pac and Atlc coasts/extreme Wrn Atlc and a ridge
centered over E/Cntrl Plains. This places local area on backside and
near base of trough allowing for strong subsidence and NW steering
flow. At surface, low off Nrn mid-Atlc region with cold front swd
parallel to coast then SWWD across FL Straits. In its wake, high
pressure ridge building SEWD across this region. Increasingly cool
and dry NLY airmass overspreading local area. At 3 am EDT...inland
sites generally 60 to 65 degrees and are expected to drop to the
low to mid 50s which would approach record lows for this date.
RECORD MIN TEMPS for this morning May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
During the rest of today, mid/upper trough will continue to push Ewd
into Atlc. Under deep layer ridging, expect ample sunshine. Area
will rebound from cool start with highs expected in the mid to upper
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Surface High pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the
local region. A backdoor cold front will push down through the
Carolina`s and into north Georgia Sunday and Sunday night before
stalling. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s
which is normal. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the
low to middle 50s inland areas and lower to middle 60s along the
coast. Min temps begin to moderate Sunday night with lower to mid
60s for our western zones and mid to upper 50s east.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...[through 06 UTC Sunday]
Unlimited vis and cigs are expected through the period. Light NE to
start the period will become E to NE near 10 KT by late morning. A
late afternoon sea breeze (S near 10 KT) is likely at KECP Saturday.
By mid eve..winds will decrease to near calm.
&&
.MARINE...
Exercise caution conditions will continue over the offshore waters
this morning. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly flow will
persist into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although it won`t be as breezy today, it will be drier with at least
6 to 8 hours of RH below 28% and ERC values greater than 37 across
portions of the FL Panhandle as well as Leon and Wakulla Counties
in the Big Bend. So a red flag warning remains in effect for these
counties in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. The airmass will
begin to gradually moisten up across the Panhandle on Sunday but
remain very dry across the Big Bend . ERC values will remain high in
these same areas. A Fire weather watch is now in effect for Sunday
aftn for Leon and Wakulla counties. The airmass will moisten up a
little more on Monday and Red Flag conditions are not anticipated
thru at least the middle of the upcoming work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are foreseen through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 87 54 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 84 64 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 87 59 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 85 55 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 85 52 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 54 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 83 63 81 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ today for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Leon-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Barry
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Wool
000
FXUS62 KTAE 250141
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT Fri May 24 2013
.NEAR TERM [Until 7 AM Saturday Morning]...
the cold front has moved offshore allowing a drier airmass to
filter into the region. This should allow unseasonably cool,
almost fall-like, conditions to be felt overnight. Expect inland
lows in the low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees). This
could approach or set records for a few sites, although likely not
at Tallahassee where tonight`s record is 48 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM [7 AM Saturday Morning Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure will settle in over the deep south through the
weekend bringing along a very dry airmass. High temperatures will
remain near normal (mid to upper 80s). With the dry airmass, low
temperatures will remain below normal, with morning temperatures
in the 50s Sunday and Monday mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
[through 00 UTC Sunday] Unlimited vis and cigs are expected
through the period. Gusty NW winds early this evening will become
light NE overnight, then E to NE near 10 KT by late Saturday
morning. A late afternoon sea breeze (S near 10 KT) is likely at
KECP Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase late tonight in the wake of the cold front.
Exercise caution conditions are expected to begin after midnight
and continue through midday Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure
will build north of the region with moderate easterly flow
continuing into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although it won`t be as breezy Saturday as it was today, it may
actually be drier, so a red flag warning is in effect for a few
counties in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. This dry airmass
will continue into Sunday, though it`s a bit early to tell if
red flag conditions will be reached on that day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are foreseen through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 87 54 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 64 85 65 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 87 57 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 54 86 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 53 84 52 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 54 87 53 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 65 83 66 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ Saturday for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Leon-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...Wool
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KTAE 241932
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT Fri May 24 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Drier air will continue to filter into the region tonight. This
should allow unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, conditions to be
felt overnight as winds die down after dark. Expect inland lows in
the low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees). This could
approach or set records for a few sites, although likely not at
Tallahassee which has a record tonight of 48.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure will settle in over the deep south through the
weekend bringing along a very dry airmass. High temperatures will
remain near normal (mid to upper 80s). With the dry airmass, low
temperatures will remain below normal, with morning temperatures
in the 50s Sunday and Monday mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions will remain dominant through the period. Gusty
n-nw winds this afternoon will wane quickly after midnight. Winds
will be more easterly tomorrow and a bit lighter.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase late tonight in the wake of a cold front.
Exercise caution conditions are expected to begin after midnight
and continue through midday Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure
will build north of the region with moderate easterly flow
continuing into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
It`s marginal, but it does appear that at least portions of our
warned area were at Red Flag criteria so far this afternoon.
Although it won`t be as breezy Saturday, it may actually be drier,
so we have upgraded the Fire Wx Watch to a warning. This dry airmass
will continue into Sunday, though it`s a bit early to tell if there
will be Red Flag conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through at least the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 54 87 54 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 64 85 65 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 87 57 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 54 86 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 53 84 52 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 54 87 53 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 65 83 66 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.
RED FLAG WARNING from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South
Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Camp
000
FXUS62 KTAE 241433
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EDT Fri May 24 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very few changes needed to the mid morning update, mainly to
account for the earlier arrival of the breezy north winds. All in
all, drier air will continue to filter into the region. Although
seasonal highs around 90 are still anticipated for inland areas,
the dry air will allow unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, conditions to
be felt overnight as winds die down after dark. Expect inland Lows
tonight in the low to mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees).
RECORD MIN TEMPS for May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
The large scale longwave Omega like pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough axis along West coast and extreme Wrn Atlc
and a ridge anchored over Cntrl Conus. This leave local region
between ridge and Srn periphery of trough yielding dry NW steering
flow. Assocd shortwave over Ern OH Valley this morning exits into
ATLC by eve. At the surface, mainly dry cold front will have crossed
local area with high pressure over mid-South building SWD in its
wake. This translates locally to a cool, dry Cp airmass with NLY
flow and subsidence overspreading region. With local area between
departing front and ridge building SWD, gradients tighten for local
breezes especially over waters.
During the rest of the period, the upper air pattern will persist
but with local area increasingly on back side of lifting Ern
trough. So expect a `chamber of commerce` type weekend with warm
days and noticeably cool nights as high pressure continues to build
NE of region. Inland dew points drop to around 40 degrees by Sat
aftn and airmass should remain to dry for fog. Model time height
profiles show H85 to H3 RH around 10%. As front departs and high
shifts EWD, local gradients will slacken. Highs will be in the
mid 80s on Sat rising to the mid to upper 80s on Sun. Mins Sat
night again low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
[through 18 UTC Saturday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level
cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will be from the north-northwest
at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight in the
wake of a cold front. Will go with nearshore/offshore split and
insert exercise caution headlines in both zones. Winds and seas
will diminish by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the
waters, and remain minimal through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will filter into the Tri-State region over the next few
days. Critically low relative humidities will be reached over
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend this
afternoon. This will combine with other critical fire weather
parameters resulting in red flag conditions. It will be just as dry
over our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag criteria will not be
met. The watch that was in effect for southeast Alabama today has
been dropped. On Saturday we expect long durations of critically low
relative humidity combined with ERC`s at or above 37 over Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend as well as our four
westernmost panhandle counties. A fire weather watch has been issued
for these areas. Dispersion will be above 75 over all of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. High dispersions are possible
again for a portion of our Florida zones again on Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 54 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 89 64 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 55 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 86 52 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 87 54 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 91 56 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 88 65 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7
PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland
Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South
Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Evans
000
FXUS62 KTAE 240746
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 AM EDT Fri May 24 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Re-enforcing surface high pressure and a very dry airmass will spill
into the region behind a cold front this morning. Even though
temperatures will be slightly cooler than what we`ve experienced the
past few days, they will still be near seasonal levels. Expect Max
temps around 90 inland areas and mid 80s along the coast. Northerly
winds will be breezy at times this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight thru Sunday]...
The large scale longwave Omega like pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough axis along West coast and extreme Wrn Atlc
and a ridge anchored over Cntrl Conus. This leave local region
between ridge and Srn periphery of trough yielding dry NW steering
flow. Assocd shortwave over Ern OH Valley this morning exits into
ATLC by eve. At the surface, mainly dry cold front will have crossed
local area with high pressure over mid-South building SWD in its
wake. This translates locally to a cool, dry Cp airmass with NLY
flow and subsidence overspreading region. With local area between
departing front and ridge building SWD, gradients tighten for local
breezes especially over waters. Expect inland Lows tonight low to
mid 50s (avg min for TAE is 64 degrees). Airmass too dry for fog.
RECORD MIN TEMPS for May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
During the rest of the period, the upper air pattern will persist
but with local area increasingly on back side of lifting Ern
trough. So expect a `chamber of commerce` type weekend with warm
days and noticeably cool nights as high pressure continues to build
NE of region. Inland dew points drop to around 40 degrees by Sat
aftn and airmass should remain to dry for fog. Model time height
profiles show H85 to H3 RH around 10%. As front departs and high
shifts EWD, local gradients will slacken. Highs will be in the
mid 80s on Sat rising to the mid to upper 80s on Sun. Mins Sat
night again low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...[through 06 UTC Saturday]...
VFR conditions with mainly high level cloudiness through the TAF
cycle. Winds will be from the northwest to north 10 to 15 knots with
gusts around 20 knots later this morning and afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels tonight in the
wake of a cold front. Will go with nearshore/offshore split and
insert exercise caution headlines in both zones. Winds and seas
will diminish by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the
waters, and remain minimal through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will filter into the Tri-State region over the next few
days. Critically low relative humidities will be reached over
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend this
afternoon. This will combine with other critical fire weather
parameters resulting in red flag conditions. It will be just as dry
over our Alabama and Georgia zones but red flag criteria will not be
met. The watch that was in effect for southeast Alabama today has
been dropped. On Saturday we expect long durations of critically low
relative humidity combined with ERC`s at or above 37 over Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend as well as our four
westernmost panhandle counties. A fire weather watch has been issued
for these areas. Dispersion will be above 75 over all of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. High dispersions are possible
again for a portion of our Florida zones again on Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 54 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 89 64 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 88 55 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 86 52 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 87 54 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 91 56 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 88 65 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7
PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Inland
Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South
Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey/Block
000
FXUS62 KTAE 240118
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Drier air continues to move into the region on northwesterly flow
as noted in the evening upper air observation. These dry
conditions will likely limit fog potential tonight and allow for
cool overnight lows down into the low to mid 60s, yielding a
respite from the recently humid last couple of days.
&&
.SHORT TERM [7 AM Friday Morning Through Saturday Night]...
Upper pattern across the CONUS is forecast to remain amplified
through the weekend, with troughs along the east and west coasts,
and a ridge in place over the central states. The northwest flow
across the deep south tonight and Friday will push a cold front
through the area. The main impact of the cold front will be to
usher in a much drier airmass, which will result in cooler
overnight lows through the weekend. Expect to see low temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s Saturday and Sunday mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 00z Friday].
Conditions will remain VFR with no VIS or CIGs restrictions
expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels Friday
night, in the wake of a cold front. Winds and seas will diminish
by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the waters, and
remain minimal through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow has been maintained as is,
due to some continued uncertainty as to precise values of minimum
RH and wind speed. Either way, it is likely that conditions in SE
Alabama and the interior Florida Panhandle will be marginal for
red flag conditions. A decision on upgrading to a RFW will be made
later tonight. Otherwise, a drier air mass will be in place over
the region from Friday into the weekend. High dispersions are
likely on Friday over all of north Florida.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 90 54 86 53 / 0 10 0 0 0
Panama City 70 89 63 83 64 / 0 10 0 0 0
Dothan 64 88 54 86 57 / 0 10 0 0 0
Albany 62 86 52 84 55 / 0 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 87 54 84 52 / 0 10 0 0 0
Cross City 63 91 56 87 54 / 0 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 68 88 64 82 64 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Walsh/Wool
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh/Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTAE 231940
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through tonight]...
A few showers are already forming early this afternoon ahead of a
surface thetae gradient over parts of southeast Georgia, and these
may develop southwestward into the eastern Florida Big Bend. Thus,
the 20% PoP through 00 UTC was maintained, with a dry forecast
thereafter as drier air finally advects into the majority of our
forecast area. With the arrival of drier air, it should be a
mostly clear night with minimal fog concerns. Lows will remain
close to seasonal normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Upper pattern across the CONUS is forecast to remain amplified
through the weekend, with troughs along the east and west coasts,
and a ridge in place over the central states. The northwest flow
across the deep south tonight and Friday will push a cold front
through the area. The main impact of the cold front will be to
usher in a much drier airmass, which will result in cooler
overnight lows through the weekend. Expect to see low temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s Saturday and Sunday mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The overall pattern is expected to remain rather stagnant through
much of next week, with the troughs in place along the coasts and
the ridge over the center of the country. This will keep the
weather generally dry with temperatures close to seasonal norms.
ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the pattern, which may lead to
a few more showers over the Georgia zones by mid to late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...
Outlook is VFR for the entire duration of the forecast. Any -SHRA
this afternoon should be southeast of VLD and TLH. Some VFR CIGS
are possible this afternoon at TLH and VLD, but skies should clear
overnight. Winds will continue to be out of the northwest, but
gusts should diminish around 22-23 UTC.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds will increase to near advisory levels Friday
night, in the wake of a cold front. Winds and seas will diminish
by late Saturday, as high pressure builds over the waters, and
remain minimal through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow has been maintained as is,
due to some continued uncertainty as to precise values of minimum
RH and wind speed. Either way, it is likely that conditions in SE
Alabama and the interior Florida Panhandle will be marginal for
red flag conditions. A decision on upgrading to a RFW will be made
later tonight. Otherwise, a drier air mass will be in place over
the region from Friday into the weekend. High dispersions are
likely on Friday over all of north Florida.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 90 54 86 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
Panama City 72 89 63 83 64 / 10 10 0 0 0
Dothan 66 88 54 86 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
Albany 64 86 52 84 55 / 10 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 63 87 54 84 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cross City 65 91 56 87 54 / 10 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 70 88 64 82 64 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers/Walsh
HYDROLOGY...Camp
000
FXUS62 KTAE 231457
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]...
The 12 UTC sounding from our office had a relatively moist profile
with a PWAT of 1.53". However, drier air is situated just to the
northwest, with the Birmingham (BMX) sounding indicating much
drier air in the 950-800mb layer. This is portrayed in the latest
objective RAP analysis which shows the leading edge of the drier
air just arriving in our southeast Alabama zones. This is expected
to push into the northwest half of our area by early afternoon,
and as boundary layer mixing increases, surface dewpoints should
decrease markedly. The advection of drier air from the northwest
will also set up a low-level thetae gradient somewhere near an
AAF-VLD line by afternoon. Various convection-allowing models show
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the unstable
environment ahead of this boundary in the afternoon - mainly in
Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties. Therefore, a 20% PoP was
added in areas southeast of Tallahassee. It wouldn`t be out of the
question for some of the storms to produce some hail or gusty
winds, but widespread or organized severe weather is not expected.
Otherwise, it looks like a mostly sunny and seasonably warm day
with highs within a couple degrees of 90 in most spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...
TONIGHT...the large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough over Wrn, ridge over Cntrl and trough over
Ern states followed by ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Low assocd with
Ern trough continuing to weaken as it shears NEWD. At surface, low
vcnty PA with weakening cold front Swd to N GA then SWWD across SE
AL. During the rest of overnight hours, axis of Ern trough to move
to Ern seaboard with rapidly weakening mainly dry front reaching
extreme Nrn Gulf waters by sunrise FRI.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...By Fri eve, trough axis and assocd low just
off Ern seaboard. In their wake, upper ridge will build NWD from
Wrn Gulf of Mex while surface high pressure builds SWD from the
OH/ TN Valleys to the Nrn Gulf. Assocd ridge will continue to
build SEWD Fri night into SAT with high centered NNE of region.
Locally this places local area between departing trough and
advancing upstream ridge yielding a much cooler and drier airmass
with NW steering flow. Flow aloft becoming WNW by Sun, and with
NLY flow at lower levels veering to NE on Sat and ESE on Sun. The
result is a reinforcing dry airmass heralding an ideal weekend
with mostly clear skies, low dew points and cool nights.
10% pops tonight then no POPs thru period. Inland Lows tonight low
to mid 60s dropping Fri and Sat nights in wake of front to mid 50s.
Highs generally mid to upper 80s. Invading drier air should limit
fog chances thru period.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.
&&
.AVIATION...[through 06 UTC Friday]
Areas of fog will develop in the pre-dawn hours. Some of the fog may
become dense especially in places that received rain. VFR conditions
will return across the entire region after 14Z. Winds will be from
the west to northwest in the 10 to 15 knot range with higher
gusts.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs with cautionary wind speeds expected Friday night.
winds will veer and along with seas decrease thru the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A much drier airmass will be filtering into the region over the next
few days. Today the minimum relative humidity should stay above
critical levels but is forecast to drop at or just below 28 percent
over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend
Friday afternoon. This combined with elevated ERC values and
sustained winds at or above 15 mph will possibly meet Red flag
conditions. A fire weather watch has been posted and may be upgraded
to a warning later today. A fire weather watch will also be issued
for our SE Alabama counties Friday due to a combination of long
durations of low RH, KBDI over 500 and sustained winds at or above
10 mph. Low relative humidities are also expected across our Georgia
zones Friday but the 10-hour fuel moisture should remain above 6
percent. Red Flag conditions are also possible across portions of
north Florida and our southeast Alabama counties again on Saturday.
On top of all this, dispersions will be very high across north
Florida this afternoon and again on Friday with forecast values
approaching 120.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 66 89 56 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 87 75 87 66 81 / 10 10 10 10 0
Dothan 91 66 87 55 86 / 0 10 10 10 0
Albany 90 64 85 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Valdosta 92 63 87 56 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 88 67 89 58 86 / 20 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 84 72 87 66 82 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block
000
FXUS62 KTAE 231009
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 AM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.UPDATE...The combination of surface wave and approaching axis of
upper trough generated ample convection overnight that moved
slowly ewd across mainly south central Georgia. Impressive
lightning and heavy rain marked this system. By 6 am EDT...this
activity moved east of I-75. Grids updated accordingly.
.Previous Discussion...
Near Term [Today]... The axis of an upper level trough will slide
across and just to the east of our CWA by tonight. At the surface,
a weak trough will push through this morning with winds shifting
to the northwest. The deep layer northwesterly flow will bring a
drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points are forecast to
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas this afternoon.
PoPs will be 10% or less. Highs will range in the upper 80s along
the coast to the lower 90s inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
TONIGHT...the large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough over Wrn, ridge over Cntrl and trough over
Ern states followed by ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Low assocd with
Ern trough continuing to weaken as it shears NEWD. At surface, low
vcnty PA with weakening cold front Swd to N GA then SWWD across SE
AL. During the rest of overnight hours, axis of Ern trough to move
to Ern seaboard with rapidly weakening mainly dry front reaching
extreme Nrn Gulf waters by sunrise FRI.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...By Fri eve, trough axis and assocd low just
off Ern seaboard. In their wake, upper ridge will build NWD from
Wrn Gulf of Mex while surface high pressure builds SWD from the
OH/ TN Valleys to the Nrn Gulf. Assocd ridge will continue to
build SEWD Fri night into SAT with high centered NNE of region.
Locally this places local area between departing trough and
advancing upstream ridge yielding a much cooler and drier airmass
with NW steering flow. Flow aloft becoming WNW by Sun, and with
NLY flow at lower levels veering to NE on Sat and ESE on Sun. The
result is a reinforcing dry airmass heralding an ideal weekend
with mostly clear skies, low dew points and cool nights.
10% pops tonight then no POPs thru period. Inland Lows tonight low
to mid 60s dropping Fri and Sat nights in wake of front to mid 50s.
Highs generally mid to upper 80s. Invading drier air should limit
fog chances thru period.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.
&&
.Aviation...[Through 06Z Friday]
Areas of fog will develop in the pre-dawn hours. Some of the fog may
become dense especially in places that received rain. VFR conditions
will return across the entire region after 14Z. Winds will be from
the west to northwest in the 10 to 15 knot range with higher
gusts.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs with cautionary wind speeds expected Friday night.
winds will veer and along with seas decrease thru the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.Fire Weather...
A much drier airmass will be filtering into the region over the next
few days. Today the minimum relative humidity should stay above
critical levels but is forecast to drop at or just below 28 percent
over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend
Friday afternoon. This combined with elevated ERC values and
sustained winds at or above 15 mph will possibly meet Red flag
conditions. A fire weather watch has been posted and may be upgraded
to a warning later today. A fire weather watch will also be issued
for our SE Alabama counties Friday due to a combination of long
durations of low RH, KBDI over 500 and sustained winds at or above
10 mph. Low relative humidities are also expected across our Georgia
zones Friday but the 10-hour fuel moisture should remain above 6
percent. Red Flag conditions are also possible across portions of
north Florida and our southeast Alabama counties again on Saturday.
On top of all this, dispersions will be very high across north
Florida this afternoon and again on Friday with forecast values
approaching 120.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 66 89 56 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 87 75 87 66 81 / 10 10 10 10 0
Dothan 92 66 87 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Albany 91 64 85 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Valdosta 90 63 87 56 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 89 67 89 58 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 84 72 87 66 82 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block
000
FXUS62 KTAE 231002
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
602 AM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.UPDATE...The combination of surface wave and approaching axis of
upper trough generated ample convection overnight that moved
slowly ewd across mainly south central Georgia. Impressive
lightning and heavy rain marked this system. By 6 am EDT...this
activity moved east of I-75.
.Previous Discussion...
Near Term [Today]... The axis of an upper level trough will slide
across and just to the east of our CWA by tonight. At the surface,
a weak trough will push through this morning with winds shifting
to the northwest. The deep layer northwesterly flow will bring a
drier airmass into the region. Surface dew points are forecast to
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas this afternoon.
PoPs will be 10% or less. Highs will range in the upper 80s along
the coast to the lower 90s inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
TONIGHT...the large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough over Wrn, ridge over Cntrl and trough over
Ern states followed by ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Low assocd with
Ern trough continuing to weaken as it shears NEWD. At surface, low
vcnty PA with weakening cold front Swd to N GA then SWWD across SE
AL. During the rest of overnight hours, axis of Ern trough to move
to Ern seaboard with rapidly weakening mainly dry front reaching
extreme Nrn Gulf waters by sunrise FRI.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...By Fri eve, trough axis and assocd low just
off Ern seaboard. In their wake, upper ridge will build NWD from
Wrn Gulf of Mex while surface high pressure builds SWD from the
OH/ TN Valleys to the Nrn Gulf. Assocd ridge will continue to
build SEWD Fri night into SAT with high centered NNE of region.
Locally this places local area between departing trough and
advancing upstream ridge yielding a much cooler and drier airmass
with NW steering flow. Flow aloft becoming WNW by Sun, and with
NLY flow at lower levels veering to NE on Sat and ESE on Sun. The
result is a reinforcing dry airmass heralding an ideal weekend
with mostly clear skies, low dew points and cool nights.
10% pops tonight then no POPs thru period. Inland Lows tonight low
to mid 60s dropping Fri and Sat nights in wake of front to mid 50s.
Highs generally mid to upper 80s. Invading drier air should limit
fog chances thru period.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.
&&
.Aviation...[Through 06Z Friday]
Areas of fog will develop in the pre-dawn hours. Some of the fog may
become dense especially in places that received rain. VFR conditions
will return across the entire region after 14Z. Winds will be from
the west to northwest in the 10 to 15 knot range with higher
gusts.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs with cautionary wind speeds expected Friday night.
winds will veer and along with seas decrease thru the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.Fire Weather...
A much drier airmass will be filtering into the region over the next
few days. Today the minimum relative humidity should stay above
critical levels but is forecast to drop at or just below 28 percent
over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend
Friday afternoon. This combined with elevated ERC values and
sustained winds at or above 15 mph will possibly meet Red flag
conditions. A fire weather watch has been posted and may be upgraded
to a warning later today. A fire weather watch will also be issued
for our SE Alabama counties Friday due to a combination of long
durations of low RH, KBDI over 500 and sustained winds at or above
10 mph. Low relative humidities are also expected across our Georgia
zones Friday but the 10-hour fuel moisture should remain above 6
percent. Red Flag conditions are also possible across portions of
north Florida and our southeast Alabama counties again on Saturday.
On top of all this, dispersions will be very high across north
Florida this afternoon and again on Friday with forecast values
approaching 120.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 66 89 56 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 87 75 87 66 81 / 10 10 10 10 0
Dothan 92 66 87 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Albany 91 64 85 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Valdosta 90 63 87 56 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 89 67 89 58 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 84 72 87 66 82 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE.../
FIRE WEATHER.../
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS62 KTAE 230657
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 AM EDT Thu May 23 2013
.Near Term [Today]...
The axis of an upper level trough will slide across and just to the
east of our CWA by tonight. At the surface, a weak trough will push
through this morning with winds shifting to the northwest. The deep
layer northwesterly flow will bring a drier airmass into the region.
Surface dew points are forecast to drop into the upper 50s to lower
60s most areas this afternoon. PoPs will be 10% or less. Highs will
range in the upper 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
TONIGHT...the large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified
with full latitude trough over Wrn, ridge over Cntrl and trough over
Ern states followed by ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. Low assocd with
Ern trough continuing to weaken as it shears NEWD. At surface, low
vcnty PA with weakening cold front Swd to N GA then SWWD across SE
AL. During the rest of overnight hours, axis of Ern trough to move
to Ern seaboard with rapidly weakening mainly dry front reaching
extreme Nrn Gulf waters by sunrise FRI.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...By Fri night, trough axis and assocd low just
off Ern seaboard. In their wake, upper ridge will build N/NE
from Wrn Gulf of Mex while surface high pressure builds SWD from
the TN Valley to the Nrn Gulf. Assocd ridge will continue to build
SEWD Fri night into SAT with high centered NNE of region. Locally
this translates to much cooler and drier airmass with NW steering
flow aloft becoming WNW by Sun, and with NLY flow at lower levels
veering to NE on Sat and ESE on Sun. The result is a reinforcing
dry airmass heralding an ideal weekend with mostly clear skies,
low dew points and cool nights.
10% pops tonight then no POPs thru period. Inland Lows tonight low
to mid 60s dropping Fri and Sat nights in wake of front to mid 50s.
Highs generally mid to upper 80s. Invading drier air should limit
fog chances thru period.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.
&&
.Aviation...[Through 06Z Friday]
Areas of fog will develop in the pre-dawn hours. Some of the fog may
become dense especially in places that received rain. VFR conditions
will return across the entire region after 14Z. Winds will be from
the west to northwest in the 10 to 15 knot range with higher
gusts.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs with cautionary wind speeds expected Friday night.
winds will veer and along with seas decrease thru the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.Fire Weather...
A much drier airmass will be filtering into the region over the next
few days. Today the minimum relative humidity should stay above
critical levels but is forecast to drop at or just below 28 percent
over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend
Friday afternoon. This combined with elevated ERC values and
sustained winds at or above 15 mph will possibly meet Red flag
conditions. A fire weather watch has been posted and may be upgraded
to a warning later today. A fire weather watch will also be issued
for our SE Alabama counties Friday due to a combination of long
durations of low RH, KBDI over 500 and sustained winds at or above
10 mph. Low relative humidities are also expected across our Georgia
zones Friday but the 10-hour fuel moisture should remain above 6
percent. Red Flag conditions are also possible across portions of
north Florida and our southeast Alabama counties again on Saturday.
On top of all this, dispersions will be very high across north
Florida this afternoon and again on Friday with forecast values
approaching 120.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 66 89 56 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 87 75 87 66 81 / 10 10 10 10 0
Dothan 92 66 87 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Albany 91 64 85 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Valdosta 90 63 87 56 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 89 67 89 58 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 84 72 87 66 82 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block
000
FXUS62 KTAE 230137
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 PM EDT Wed May 22 2013
.NEAR TERM [Until 7 AM Thursday Morning]...
An upper level trough centered over Western Iowa continues to
send shortwave impulses around its base, ejecting them into our
local area. This will lead to a generally cloudy night and a
chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. Expect
lows temperatures tonight to be in the mid 60s throughout the CWA.
Pathcy fog should develop around 10Z and last til right after
sunrise. There is the possibility that some areas see locally
dense fog with reduced visibilites.
&&
.SHORT TERM [7 AM Thursday Morning Through Saturday]...
Models continue the trend of less chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a low amplitude trough and associated surface cold
front move across the region tomorrow. With the slightly drier low
levels and limited vertical motion this far south, have dropped
PoPs to 10% or less through the end of the week. Highs Thursday
will once again range in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland. In
the wake of this weak system, seasonably cool and dry air will
settle over the area Friday night and into the weekend with
overnight lows in the 50s and highs on Saturday in the mid to
upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Thursday]...
Other than brief period of early morning IFR cigs/vsby, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, especially near
KECP. However, coverage is expected to be to slim to include in
the TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs. Cautionary wind speeds can be expected Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels for one more
day. On Friday, a much drier airmass will move into the region on
gusty northerly winds. This may lead to Red Flag conditions for
inland portions of the Florida Panhandle during the afternoon. A
Fire Weather Watch will be necessary for this region for Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 91 66 90 54 / 20 10 10 10 10
Panama City 70 87 70 89 63 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dothan 67 92 66 88 55 / 30 10 10 10 10
Albany 67 91 65 86 54 / 30 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 65 90 64 88 53 / 30 10 10 10 10
Cross City 65 89 66 89 57 / 20 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 69 84 68 89 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Navarro/Wool
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Lahr/Godsey
MARINE...Navarro/Wool/Evans
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Evans
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