000
FXUS62 KTAE 181903
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers are continuing to move through the region this
afternoon and will gradually dissipate after sunset as the
instability of the day diminishes. Leftover cloud cover from
earlier convective activity will still linger over the region and
likely limit overall fog potential tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An early summertime pattern with high pressure east of the Florida
Peninsula will keep light southerly flow in place across the
region. Despite the southerly flow, deep layer moisture is notably
absent and this will serve to limit pop chances through the first
part of the week. Rain chances of only 20 to 30 percent each
afternoon with the best potential in the Southeastern Big Bend.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer and more typical of late May
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Long range models in general agreement with the overall pattern for
this time period. An upper level ridge prevails across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper low in the northern/central
plains. This pattern shifts east later in the week resulting in a
weak trough across the area for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday
current trends are pointing toward ridging across the central CONUS.
POPs will increase for the Thursday-Friday period to 30-40% and drop
off to isolated activity for Tuesday and Saturday. Expect
typical diurnal cycle convection with highs and overnight lows both
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Saturday]...
Saturday 18Z-22Z expect scattered thunderstorms affecting
KABY-KTLH-KVLD. From Sat 22Z to Sun 00Z expect showers and tstms to
gradually dissipate. Overnight low ceilings and some patchy fog will
redevelop, especially in areas that received rain this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate
our coastal waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, thus red flag conditions are not anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 90 65 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 67 84 68 87 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 67 89 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 67 90 69 91 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
Valdosta 65 90 66 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 10
Cross City 65 88 64 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 65 83 66 84 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Hollingsworth
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Until 8 PM This Evening]...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in association with a mid
level impulse that turned southeastward early this morning across
East Central Alabama. Questions remain as to whether this
convective complex will sustain itself long enough to have a
significant impact on our forecast area today. Already, a few showers
and storms have drifted into the northwestern portion of the area,
and recent trends from radar imagery across East Central Alabama
do show signs of reintensification of the storms.
The morning KTAE sounding does show some favorable thermal
profiles above 700 mb where the lapse rates are relatively
steep, on the order of 7.5 to 8 deg C/Km. However, moderate
heating is necessary today to really make full use of this
favorable profile aloft. A warm layer from about 850-700mb will
limit more robust updrafts early in the day until surface temps
reach the mid 80s.
High resolution guidance continues to have issues with this
particular system, but most show the cluster impacting Southern
Georgia through about 18z before diminishing through the
afternoon. While this seems plausible as diminished heating in the
northern counties will limit overall destabilization, areas to the
south, along the Florida border could see late day development as
mesoscale boundaries emanating from the convection across our
northern counties interacts with the sea breeze front. The
strongest storms today would have potential to produce some small
hail and gusty winds. The overall severe potential is low.
Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to favor greater rain
chances across the northern areas and indicate a more conditional
potential further to the south across North Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for
both Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will
begin the weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a
position off the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will
allow for Upper Level ridging to build in from the west, with High
Temps expected to reach the lower 90s each day over the interior,
with lower to perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof
may provide just enough lift and instability to combine with the
daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain will be across eastern
portions of the CWA (nearest the Trof), but even here, 30% should
be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Saturday]...
See the Near Term discussion above for a synopsis of the evolution
of this mornings complex of storms. Generally VFR conditions will
prevail today once the morning ceilings scatter out. However,
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities within areas of rain,
impacting primarily KABY and KDHN through midday. Overnight
tonight, expect more widespread low ceiling and fog development.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 62 91 64 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 84 68 85 / 30 10 10 10 10
Dothan 84 65 90 66 92 / 70 20 20 10 10
Albany 84 64 90 66 91 / 70 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 90 63 92 64 92 / 60 20 30 20 30
Cross City 88 63 88 65 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 82 66 82 66 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181031
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
...Updated Rain Forecast...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection to our north has taken an early dive to the south this
morning. Thus, very few hi-res, or other models have a decent
handle on the situation. The current thinking is that a rather
widespread area of showers and thunderstorms will dive south into
our Alabama and Georgia counties by mid morning. Expect the
possibility for frequent lightning and heavy rain. Although winds
may gust to 30 mph or so at times, severe gusts are not
anticipated at this time. Although the finer details are not well
resolved by any of the guidance this morning, all NWP guidance
suggests a weakening trend with respect to the convection as the
storms move south. Thus, have kept the best rain chances across
our Alabama and Georgia counties, with lower rain chances across
north Florida. Do however expect some rainfall at least to make it
in to north Florida this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for both
Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will begin the
weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a position off
the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will allow for Upper
Level ridging to build in from the west, with High Temps expected to
reach the lower 90s each day over the interior, with lower to
perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof may provide just
enough lift and instability to combine with the daytime heating to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances for rain will be across eastern portions of the CWA (nearest
the Trof), but even here, 30% should be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Saturday]...
See the Near Term discussion above for a synopsis of the evolution
of this mornings complex of storms. Generally VFR conditions will
prevail today once the morning ceilings scatter out. However,
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities within areas of rain,
impacting primarily KABY and KDHN through midday. Overnight
tonight, expect more widespread low ceiling and fog development.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 62 91 64 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 84 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 84 65 90 66 92 / 70 20 20 10 10
Albany 84 64 90 66 91 / 70 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 90 63 92 64 92 / 50 20 30 20 30
Cross City 88 63 88 65 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 82 66 82 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180822
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A broad shortwave trough sprawls the eastern part of the country
this morning, with high pressure dominating at the surface. Through
the day, the trough will continue its gradual eastward motion in
response to an amplifying ridge upstream. As it does so, it may send
just enough energy our way to generate a cluster of thunderstorms
around mid to late afternoon across portions of Alabama and Georgia.
Generally, expect the target region for thunderstorms to be between
Dothan and Tifton, moving southeast and mostly diminishing by the
time it reaches Valdosta. Elsewhere across Alabama and Georgia,
scattered light showers and isolated storms may be possible. Little
to no rain is expected across north Florida. Thus, we will see
warmer temperatures in Florida, and slightly cooler temperatures to
the north and northwest. Expect highs around the 90 degree mark for
much of inland Florida, with even some lower 90s possible from
Valdosta, southeast into the Big Bend. Middle to upper 80s will be
more common where thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon.
Overnight, showers and thunderstorms will retreat back to the north,
closer to the parent synoptic forcing. Temperatures will fall back
into the lower to middle 60s, with fog developing near dawn.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for both
Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will begin the
weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a position off
the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will allow for Upper
Level ridging to build in from the west, with High Temps expected to
reach the lower 90s each day over the interior, with lower to
perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof may provide just
enough lift and instability to combine with the daytime heating to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances for rain will be across eastern portions of the CWA (nearest
the Trof), but even here, 30% should be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
IFR restrictions in a mix of low ceilings and fog are anticipated at
all terminals but KABY this morning. Similar to yesterday
restrictions will lift shortly after sunrise. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to impact primarily KABY, and possibly
KDHN later this afternoon. Fog, possibly more widespread than this
morning, is expected once again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 62 91 64 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
Panama City 83 67 84 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 90 66 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
Albany 85 64 90 66 91 / 50 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 93 63 92 64 92 / 20 20 30 20 30
Cross City 90 63 88 65 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 83 66 82 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180212
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
...UPDATED
Latest radar pix show convection from shortwave (see below) edging
sewd across s/cntrl AL and some may reach our nrn most counties
after midnight. ATL and BHM have higher Pops across our adjacent
areas and will put in 20-30% Pops to account for this convection.
.Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a trough over the
Wrn states, building ridge over Cntrl states, a trough over the TN
River Valley and SWD, and a ridge of high pressure across the Wrn
Atlc. Locally, area remains on Wrn edge of this ridge. Upper low
over Nrn AL slowly weakening as it moves Ewd. Assocd H5 shortwave
rotating across N/Cntrl AL and moving WNW-ESE spreading ample
convection over Nrn AL/GA but only mid and high level cloud debris
across local area. At surface, subtropical ridge extends from Ern
Atlc to across NRN FL yielding generally SE flow.
During the rest of tonight, upper trough, low and shortwave continue
their slow Ewd trek allowing upstream ridge to move into MS Valley.
Assocd clouds at base of trough will also spread EWD impacting
mainly our Nrn most counties but increasingly diminishing with loss
of heat and as they move away from local area. The combination of
the departing clouds, the light onshore humid flow (Rap 12z Sat TAE
sounding of 1.26 inches) and mild temperatures will provide another
favorable setup for fog. While the most favored area appears to be
along the FL Panhandle and into SE AL, some potential for fog is
possible across Southwestern Georgia as well altho not enough to
include in wx grids. Based on current trends in temps, tweaked up
min temps a few degrees land and water. Also based on model guidance
and persistence, changed wx GRIDS 10z-13z from areas and patchy
light fog to areas/patchy dense fog. Temps overnight will be
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions this evening will gradually give way to prevailing
MVFR visibilities at DHN, ABY and VLD after midnight as fog
develops. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at the ECP and TLH TAF
sites. IFR/LIFR conditions can`t be ruled out at DHN, ABY, and
VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at these terminals. Shortly
after daybreak, any remaining fog should dissipate and all terminals
will return to VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 68 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 66 88 67 89 69 / 20 20 20 10 10
Albany 66 89 67 90 68 / 20 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 65 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 64 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 66 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE.../
FIRE WEATHER.../
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180019
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
819 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a trough over the
Wrn states, building ridge over Cntrl states, a trough over the TN
River Valley and SWD, and a ridge of high pressure across the Wrn
Atlc. Locally, area remains on Wrn edge of this ridge. Upper low
over Nrn AL slowly weakening as it moves Ewd. Assocd H5 shortwave
rotating across N/Cntrl AL and moving WNW-ESE spreading ample
convection over Nrn AL/GA but only mid and high level cloud debris
across local area. At surface, subtropical ridge extends from Ern
Atlc to across NRN FL yielding generally SE flow.
During the rest of tonight, upper trough, low and shortwave continue
their slow Ewd trek allowing upstream ridge to move into MS Valley.
Assocd clouds at base of trough will also spread EWD impacting
mainly our Nrn most counties but increasingly diminishing with loss
of heat and as they move away from local area. The combination of
the departing clouds, the light onshore humid flow (Rap 12z Sat TAE
sounding of 1.26 inches) and mild temperatures will provide another
favorable setup for fog. While the most favored area appears to be
along the FL Panhandle and into SE AL, some potential for fog is
possible across Southwestern Georgia as well altho not enough to
include in wx grids. Based on current trends in temps, tweaked up
min temps a few degrees land and water. Also based on model guidance
and persistence, changed wx GRIDS 10z-13z from areas and patchy
light fog to areas/patchy dense fog. Temps overnight will be
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions this evening will gradually give way to prevailing
MVFR visibilities at DHN, ABY and VLD after midnight as fog
develops. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at the ECP and TLH TAF
sites. IFR/LIFR conditions can`t be ruled out at DHN, ABY, and
VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at these terminals. Shortly
after daybreak, any remaining fog should dissipate and all terminals
will return to VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 68 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 66 88 67 89 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Albany 66 89 67 90 68 / 10 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 65 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 64 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 66 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block/Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171816
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A disturbance will pass through the Tennessee Valley this evening
taking the bulk of the mid level cloudiness with it. Our region
remains on the western edge of a ridge of high pressure across the
Western Atlantic. This pattern will place our region in a favorable
set up for another round of fog overnight. While the most favored
area appears to be along the Florida Panhandle and into Southeastern
Alabama, some potential for fog is possible across Southwestern
Georgia as well. Temperatures overnight will be a little on the cool
side for mid May with lows generally in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation [Through 18 UTC Saturday]...
VFR conditions will persist through the early evening, with
scattered clouds across the region. However, later this evening,
areas of fog will develop as surface winds become calm, especially
over the Florida Panhandle after 06Z. Where the fog develops, LIFR
conditions are expected. The best chance of fog is at ECP, but TLH
has a decent chance of fog as well. LIFR conditions can`t be ruled
out at DHN, ABY, and VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at
these terminals. Where fog does not occur, VFR conditions will
persist through the night. After 13Z tomorrow, any remaining fog
should dissipate and all stations will return to VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 66 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 65 88 67 89 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Albany 65 89 67 90 68 / 10 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 63 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 63 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171320
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Early morning fog across the Florida Panhandle continues to slowly
erode this morning, with only lingering patchy fog around Panama
City westward to De Funiak Springs. At the surface, our region
remains to the west of a surface high pressure ridge. Aloft, a
disturbance is moving through the Tennessee River Valley. With
limited deep layer moisture, as noted on the morning sounding, any
showers and storms will be isolated at worst, and likely remain
to the north of our region today.
Still expect a good sea breeze circulation this afternoon which
will result in temperatures a good 5 to 8 degrees cooler at the
coast (lower 80s) than sites further inland where upper 80s to
near 90 degrees are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Lingering fog dissipating quickly this morning. Only ECP shows
LIFR conditions as of 13z, but this will improve quickly. VFR all
sites after 14z with another round of fog expected overnight,
potentially once again into the IFR/LIFR range.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 83 67 83 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 89 66 89 / 10 10 20 20 20
Albany 88 65 90 65 89 / 10 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 89 63 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 20 30
Cross City 86 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 79 65 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTAE 170730
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Rather broad troughing covers the southeastern part of the country,
emanating from an area of mid/upper level low pressure beginning to
merge back into the northern stream flow. This low, and associated
trough will gradually move east through tonight. At the surface,
high pressure will nose westward veering flow from the southeast to
a more southerly direction. Based on model soundings, it appears as
though we will still be too dry to squeeze any showers out of the
seabreeze fronts this afternoon, as forecast PWATs depict below
average moisture content. Further, the best forcing associated with
the aforementioned trough will remain well to our northwest and keep
any synoptically forced showers and thunderstorms outside of the
Tri-State region. Expect partly cloudy skies, with upper 80s away
from the coast, and near 80 degrees along the coast. Overnight,
showers will inch closer to the region, but should still remain
northwest of our southeast Alabama, and western Georgia counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Patchy fog is expected along the Panhandle coast early this morning,
affecting primarily KECP. The extent of the inland spread is
uncertain at this time, with the possibility for fog at both KTLH
and KDHN by sunrise. Early indications are that restrictions will be
up-and-down between MVFR and IFR before the fog quickly clears after
sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are anticipated for the
remainder of the TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our Coastal
Waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 83 67 83 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 89 66 89 / 0 10 20 20 20
Albany 88 65 90 65 89 / 0 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 89 63 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 20 30
Cross City 86 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 79 65 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KTAE 170019
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Another quiet night ahead with the exception of fog developing after
midnight. Some of the fog may briefly become dense toward daybreak,
especially over our Florida and SE Alabama zones. Low temps will
generally be in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday]...
The closed low (currently over OK) is expected to translate slowly
eastward across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend. However,
the bulk of the deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing associated with
this feature is likely to be north of our forecast area. This will
leave our region with PoPs in the 20-30% range, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when instability and mesoscale boundary
interactions are maximized. It will finally feel like late Spring,
as highs approach 90 deg and lows stay in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.Aviation [Through 00Z Friday]...
Potential for MVFR fog development late tonight into tomorrow
morning at all sites. Locally dense fog will result in IFR conditions
from KTLH westward. Fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise and
conditions will return to VFR with light southerly winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be at their typically low late spring/early
summertime values. Winds and inland water chop may increase at the
coast during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 66 82 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 62 88 65 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 62 89 64 90 65 / 0 10 10 20 20
Valdosta 61 87 63 88 63 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 61 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 80 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Walsh/Block
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/Block
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KTAE 161844
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
We will continue to trend towards normal tonight with mostly clear
skies and calm winds, along with a general increase in relative
humidity. This increase in RH may also provide areas of fog early
Friday morning for much of nrn FL into southeast AL/swrn GA, which
should burn off quickly after sunrise. Low temps in the lower 60s
will be common around the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday]...
The closed low (currently over OK) is expected to translate slowly
eastward across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend. However,
the bulk of the deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing associated with
this feature is likely to be north of our forecast area. This will
leave our region with PoPs in the 20-30% range, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when instability and mesoscale boundary
interactions are maximized. It will finally feel like late Spring,
as highs approach 90 deg and lows stay in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18z Thursday]...
Forecast guidance indicates the increase in RH overnight will
likely support low clouds and areas of fog around the area. This
should bring a 4-5 hr window MVFR and possible IFR conditions for
all sites late tonight into early Friday morning. Expect return to
VFR and light ssw winds will occur by mid morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be at their typically low late spring/early
summertime values. Winds and inland water chop may increase at the
coast during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 66 82 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 62 88 65 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 62 89 64 90 65 / 0 10 10 20 20
Valdosta 61 87 63 88 63 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 61 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 80 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/Block
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KTAE 161402
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1002 AM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Little change needed with the morning update. Low amplitude trough
continues to deamplifiy as it ejects across the Srn Appalachians
this morning. This will maintain a few high level clouds and will
keep isolated PoPs across the western and northern counties today
as the system lifts enewd. Otherwise, we will continue the general
warming trend with near normal highs in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon for inland sites with generally light winds. Overnight
min temps near normal are expected tonight as well with lows in
the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
Weak upper level troughing will move across the area through the
short term and continue weakening as it does so. At the surface,
weak onshore flow will continue. Only very low rain chances on the
order of 10-20% are expected through Saturday with little in the
way of lift to generate convection. Afternoon highs are expected
to creep up into the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday
with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Weak troughing will be present along or just off the eastern
seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface, an east to west
ridge axis will remain in place through the period with the axis
wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to just inland.
Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon along and
ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment. Afternoon
max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with
cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will
be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION... [Through 12z Friday]
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s
each of the next few afternoons. While the warm temperatures and
high mixing heights will enhance dispersion values over Florida,
Red Flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 88 61 89 / 10 0 10 10 20
Panama City 81 66 83 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 62 88 63 89 / 10 0 20 10 20
Albany 87 62 89 63 90 / 10 0 20 10 20
Valdosta 85 61 90 62 91 / 10 0 20 10 20
Cross City 85 61 88 61 88 / 10 0 10 10 20
Apalachicola 79 64 82 63 83 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Evans
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Evans
000
FXUS62 KTAE 160622
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 AM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
An upper ridge over the deep south will slide to the east today as
a trough approaches the Mississippi River. While deep layer
moisture will be on the increase, it will still remain low enough
to prevent much in the way of shower activity, especially with the
lack of any significant forcing. Temperatures will reach the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon, very close to seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Weak upper level troughing will move across the area through the
short term and continue weakening as it does so. At the surface,
weak onshore flow will continue. Only very low rain chances on the
order of 10-20% are expected through Saturday with little in the
way of lift to generate convection. Afternoon highs are expected
to creep up into the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday and Saturday
with overnight lows mainly in the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Weak troughing will be present along or just off the eastern
seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface, an east to west
ridge axis will remain in place through the period with the axis
wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to just inland.
Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon along and
ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment. Afternoon
max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s, with
cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows will
be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 06z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values are expected to drop into the lower to mid 30s
each of the next few afternoons. While the warm temperatures and
high mixing heights will enhance dispersion values over Florida,
Red Flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 88 61 89 / 10 0 10 10 20
Panama City 81 66 83 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 62 88 63 89 / 10 0 20 10 20
Albany 87 62 89 63 90 / 10 0 20 10 20
Valdosta 85 61 90 62 91 / 10 0 20 10 20
Cross City 85 61 88 61 88 / 10 0 10 10 20
Apalachicola 79 64 82 63 83 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Camp
Short Term/Marine/Hydrology...DVD
Long Term...Barry
000
FXUS62 KTAE 160126
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 PM EDT Wed May 15 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A surface high pressure continues to dominate the area keeping the
weather calm and winds light. Scattered high clouds will begin to
move into the area, and temperatures tonight will be slightly cooler
than normal, in the upper 50s to low 60s. Other than a small
adjustment to the minimum temperatures, no significant changes
have been made to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The low amplitude upper ridge over the SE CONUS will flatten as
the closed upper low currently east of the Texas panhandle lifts
into the Missouri Valley Thursday. This feature will weaken into
an open trough as it moves across the Midwest and into the Ohio
Valley Thursday night through Friday night. Onshore flow will
continue with the surface ridge axis cutting through the northern
Gulf. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm each
afternoon. Will show 20% PoP for portions of the tri-state region
Friday and Friday night. Near seasonal temperatures are expected
with mid to upper 80s for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for
lows.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The aforementioned shortwave trough will pass to the north of the
area Saturday. Then, weak troughing will be present along or just
off the eastern seaboard Sunday through mid week. At the surface,
an east to west ridge axis will remain in place through the period
with the axis wavering back and forth from our coastal waters to
just inland. Isolated convection will be possible each afternoon
along and ahead of the sea breeze in the warm moist environment.
Afternoon max temps will be near seasonal norms in the upper 80s,
with cooler upper 70s to lower 80s at the beaches. Overnight lows
will be slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.
North winds will become calm overnight and become light around
15Z. As with the previous forecast, LAMP guidance suggests MVFR
conditions right before daybreak at TLH and VLD, but other higher
res models do not show this so it is left out of the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface ridge of high pressure pressure will remain in place
over the waters through the weekend. This high will keep winds
light and primarily onshore with a slight enhancement in wind
speeds each afternoon near the coast in association with the sea
breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The low level airmass is forecast to slowly moisten over the next
few days. This will keep durations of critical humidity below
headline criteria, with no red flag conditions expected. High
pressure will yield warm temperatures and high mixing heights over
the next few days. This will result in elevated dispersion values
over the Florida Panhandle especially on Thursday. Red flag concerns
are not anticipated into the upcoming work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no concerns on area rivers and creeks for the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 57 87 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 64 84 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 61 86 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 10
Albany 61 88 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
Valdosta 59 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 20 20
Cross City 57 86 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 20 20
Apalachicola 62 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION...Wool/Heller
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Barry
MARINE...DVD/Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...DVD
|
